THE CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND SOIL RESPIRATION AFTER LAND USE CONVERSION IN BIOFUEL CROPPING ECOSYSTEMS By Yahn-Jauh Su A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Geography—Doctor of Philosophy 2017 ABSTRACT THE CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND SOIL RESPIRATION AFTER LAND USE CONVERSION IN BIOFUEL CROPPING ECOSYSTEMS By Yahn-Jauh Su Global climate change alters Earth’s carbon, hydrological and energy cycles from local to global scales, changing our climate patterns and impacting our lifestyles and prosperity. The development of bioenergy may partially mitigate the release of carbon dioxide during the combustion of fossil fuel. However, the carbon emissions from the bioenergy-induced land use change have long been debated and it is not certain whether they really represent a reduction of carbon emission. In this study, I monitored the components of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, including gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), total soil respiration (Rs), autotrophic soil respiration (Ra) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh), to understand their responses to climate variability and in particular a severe drought event. I studied three major bioenergy crops (continuous corn, switchgrass and restored multicultural prairie) on fields with two different land use histories (conventional corn-soybean rotation and Conservation Reserve Program brome grass fields). I found that the amplitude, the duration and the seasonality of microclimatic variables (temperature and precipitation) were important for the carbon dynamics in the bioenergy cropping systems. The soil water content affected the annual NEE, GPP and Reco although it did not have strong correlations with these components of carbon fluxes at short-term scale. The short-term (1-2 week) normal summer water deficit may affect annual NEE while long-term (spring-summer) drought may change the community structure and affect the carbon cycling processes in the following years. The temperature sensitivities of soil respiration were shifted within and between years. In addition, crop types and land use histories affect the responses of ecosystem to climate events. The different phenology between annual and perennial crops and the establishment of dense root systems in perennial crops can change the ratio of the components of NEE and change the direction and the amounts of net ecosystem carbon flux. Annual and perennial crops have different strategies responding to different climate scenarios and their combinations. The monitoring of climate patterns at intra-annual scale is required to understand how the ecosystem respond to climate change. Dedicated to my parents and my wife, who have been always supportive and encouraging iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank my advisor, Dr. Jiquan Chen, for his support and guidance throughout the past five year. He gave me a chance to start my PhD study in environmental sciences and ecosystem ecology with the wide exploration of geography, biogeochemistry and mathematic modeling, as well as pushing me for academic journal writing. I learned independent learning, problem solving in field, and developing new methods to resolve present knowledge gaps. I also deeply thank my committees. Dr. G. Philip Robertson for teaching me to look at academic questions from a big picture and encouraging me to think about fundamental questions and how research findings can be implemented in our society. Dr. Stephen K. Hamilton stimulates my thinking from details of study results and encourage me to try any new ideas. He and Suzanne Sippel give me the warmest help when I faced big challenges during my PhD life. Dr. Jeffrey A. Andresen assisted me for the basic knowledge of agricultural meteorology and gave me support in Geography. I like to thank all members in LEES lab, Robertson lab and Hamilton lab and professors, researchers and students in the W.K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS). I cannot finish the heavy field work, data analysis, method development and dissertation writing without their support. I also thank Michael Abraha, who worked with me closely in the field and in the lab. The discussions with him, both regarding research and life, always helped me mitigate my stress. I am grateful to Ilya Gelfand, Stecey VanderWulp, Kevin Kahmark, Sven Bohm, Changliang Shao, Housen Chu, Zutao Ouyang, Sarah Roley, Gabriela Shirkey, Ranjeet John, Terenzio Zenone, Wei Shan, Yi Fan, and Cheyenne Lei. I also thank the support from the Department of Geography, Environment, and Spatial Sciences. Dr. Ashton Shortridge and Ms. Sharon Ruggles v gives me help when I have any question in Geography and assist me when I need department’s support. I specially thank my wife, Hsun-Yi Hsieh, and my parents. Your support at any time is the most important in enhancing my progress. My research was funded by the US DOE Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center (DOE Office of Science, DE-FC02-07ER64494 & DOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DE-AC05-76RL01830). vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. xi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS ............................................................................................xv CHAPTER 1: DISSERTATION INTRODUCTION ..........................................................1 1.1 OVERVIEW ......................................................................................................1 1.1.1 Global carbon cycle and climate changes ...........................................1 1.1.2 The development of biofuel and its impacts on global carbon balance ...............................................................................................4 1.1.3 The drivers of carbon budget in biofuel cropland ecosystem after land use change .................................................................................5 1.1.4 Major carbon processes and pools of ecosystems...............................7 1.1.5 The importance of grassland and cropland ecosystems ......................9 1.2 THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWAORK ........................................................10 1.3 OBJECTIVES ..................................................................................................13 1.3.1 Objectives of study ...........................................................................13 1.3.2 Hypotheses ........................................................................................15 1.4 STUDY AREA ................................................................................................17 1.5 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND SCHEDULE ............................................19 LITERATURE CITED ..........................................................................................22 CHAPTER 2: INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SOIL RESPIRATION AND ITS RESPONSE TO MICROCLIMATE .................................................................................28 ABSTRACT ...........................................................................................................28 2.1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................29 2.2 METHODS ......................................................................................................31 2.2.1 Study area..........................................................................................31 2.2.2 Experimental design and schedule ....................................................31 2.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification ....................................................................................32 2.2.4 The total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements ..............34 2.2.5 Vegetation Index data .......................................................................36 2.2.6 The temperature-water-vegetation (TWV) models & Ra:Rh ratio ....36 2.2.7 Data analysis .....................................................................................37 2.3 RESULTS ........................................................................................................38 2.3.1 Climatic and microclimatic variables and the growing seasons .......38 2.3.2 The Vegetation Indices: NDVI and EVI ...........................................42 2.3.3 CROP and LUH effects on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) ................................................................................42 vii 2.3.3.1 The effects of CROP, LUH and their interactions on Rs and Rh .................................................................................42 2.3.3.2 The effects of CROP in different LUH ...............................43 2.3.3.3 The effects of LUH in different CROP ...............................44 2.3.4 Soil respiration regulators .................................................................49 2.3.5 Temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration ..............................54 2.3.6 Temperature-Water-Vegetation (TWV) multiple variable models for soil respiration ...........................................................................54 2.3.7 Ra:Rh ratio and the root contribution of soil respiration ...................55 2.4 DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................58 2.4.1 The major biophysical drivers of soil respiration .............................58 2.4.2 The effects of crop type (CROP) and land use history (LUH) .........63 2.4.3 The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration across years ......64 2.4.4 The responses of Ra and Rh to future climate scenarios ...................65 2.5 CONCLUSIONS..............................................................................................67 APPENDIX ............................................................................................................69 LITERATURE CITED ..........................................................................................75 CHAPTER 3: SEASONAL PATTERNS OF SOIL RESPIRATION AND ITS RESPONSE TO MICROCLIMATE .................................................................................79 ABSTRACT ...........................................................................................................79 3.1 INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................80 3.2 METHODS ......................................................................................................82 3.2.1 Study area..........................................................................................82 3.2.2 Experimental design and schedule ....................................................82 3.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification ....................................................................................84 3.2.4 Total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements ....................85 3.2.5 Vegetation index data .......................................................................86 3.2.6 The temperature-water-vegetation (TWV) models ...........................87 3.2.2 Seasonality of root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration ..........87 3.3 RESULTS ........................................................................................................88 3.3.1 Temporal variations of biophysical factors.......................................88 3.3.1.1 Climate and microclimate ...................................................88 3.3.1.2 Vegetation indices ...............................................................92 3.3.1.3 Soil respiration ....................................................................93 3.3.2 The seasonality of the root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration ........................................................................................95 3.4 DISCUSSION ..................................................................................................97 3.4.1 How seasonal patterns of biophysical drivers affect the seasonal patterns of soil respiration ...............................................................97 3.4.2 The seasonality of Ra and Rh in the dry and hot year .....................100 3.4.3 The seasonality of Ra and Rh in humid spring and cool summers ..102 3.4.4 Seasonal variations in RC ...............................................................101 3.5 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................106 LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................108 viii CHAPTER 4: ECOSYSTEM RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE TO SEVERE DROUGHTS: A BAYESIAN MODELING OF SOIL RESPIRATION ........................112 ABSTRACT .........................................................................................................112 4.1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................113 4.2 METHODS ....................................................................................................116 4.2.1 Study area........................................................................................116 4.2.2 Experimental design and schedule ..................................................116 4.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification ..................................................................................117 4.2.4 The total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements ............119 4.2.5 The measurements of Ta, PRCP, Ts, VWC, NDVI, EVI, Ra and Rh119 4.2.6 The concept of Bayesian modeling .................................................120 4.2.7 The estimates of prior models .........................................................121 4.2.8 The equation of likelihood ..............................................................122 4.2.9 Calculation of estimations of posterior models ..............................122 4.2.10 Estimations of β and LR20 of Ra....................................................123 4.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................124 4.3.1 Bayesian models for the R-Ts relationship .....................................124 4.3.2 The differences of β and LR20 between CROP and LUH ...............126 4.3.3 The distribution of β and LR20 of Ra and Rh and their trajectories across years....................................................................................128 4.4 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................132 4.4.1 The distribution of β and LR20 across CROP and LUH combinations .................................................................................132 4.4.2 The stability of β and LR20 in the severe spring-summer drought in the Ref field ...................................................................................132 4.4.3 Different responses of β-LR20 on Rs and Rh after severe springsummer drought .............................................................................133 4.4.3.1 The resistance of Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships to the drought ............................................................................133 4.4.3.2 The changes of Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships in the recovery years ..................................................................135 4.4.3.3 The systematic responses of the R-T relationship to the severe drought ..................................................................136 4.5 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................137 APPENDIX ..........................................................................................................139 LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................141 CHAPTER 5: HOW THE NET ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE (NEE) OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND ITS PARTITIONING RESPOND TO THE BIOPHYSICAL VARIABLES DURING GROWING SEASON ..............................................................146 ABSTRACT .........................................................................................................146 5.1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................147 5.2 METHODS ....................................................................................................149 5.2.1 Study area........................................................................................149 5.2.2 Experimental design and schedule ..................................................149 ix 5.2.3 The calculations of NEE, GPP and Reco by eddy-covariance approach ........................................................................................150 5.2.3.1 The measurements of eddy-covariance and microclimatic data ...................................................................................150 5.2.3.2 Data processing and gap-filling .........................................152 5.2.3.3 Estimation of NEE, GPP and Reco .....................................153 5.2.4 Estimations of Reco and Rs ..............................................................153 5.2.4.1 The TWV model and its variables .....................................153 5.2.4.2 Data processing and gap filling .........................................154 5.2.4.3 The components of ecosystem respiration and their calculation ........................................................................155 5.3 RESULTS ......................................................................................................156 5.3.1 The seasonal variations of NEE, GPP, Reco and Rs.........................156 5.3.2 The mid-growing season NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs among CROP and LUH.............................................................................163 5.3.3 The mid-growing season Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH .................................................................163 5.3.4 The shift of mid-growing season Reco:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios across years...............................................................................................165 5.3.5 The shift of annual NEE, GPP, Reco and Rs among CROP and LUH across years....................................................................................169 5.4 DISCUSSION ................................................................................................173 5.4.1 The seasonality of NEE, GPP & Reco between annual and perennial crops ..............................................................................................173 5.4.2 The mid-growing season Reco:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios ....................174 5.4.3 The interannul trend of mid-GS Rs:Reco ratios ................................175 5.4.4 The limitation of the TWV model ..................................................176 5.5 CONCLUSIONS............................................................................................177 LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................179 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLEMENTATIONS .....................................183 LITERATURE CITED ........................................................................................190 x LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. Soil texture and soil properties of the seven experiment sites before the land use conversion ...............................................................................................19 Table 2.1. The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration ..........................................56 Table S.2.1. Monthly Climate and microclimate ...............................................................70 Table S.2.2. The Pearson’s correlation between soil respiration (R or log10R) and its controls (Ts, VWC, NDVI and EVI ................................................................71 Table S.2.3. The exponential model of total soil respiration (Rs)/heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) and soil temperature (Ts) and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) during 2011 and 2014 ..........................................................................72 Table S.2.4. The two-level interactive TWV models for Rs and Rh ..................................73 Table S.2.5. The effects of CROP and LUH on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) ..............................................................................................74 Table 4.1. The mean and standard deviation of log10 soil respiration by year ................124 Table 4.2. The values of LR20 and β in Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships ............................127 Table S.4.1. The root contribution of soil respiration (RC) for each site in each year ....140 Table 5.1. The minimum NEE, maximum GPP and maximum Reco among sites across years ............................................................................................................158 Table 5.2. The Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH over four years ............................................................................................................167 xi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1. The major anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the partitioning among three major carbon reservoirs...................................................................................2 Figure 1.2. A simplified schematic of the global carbon reservoirs and the annual fluxes .3 Figure 1.3. The conceptual framework of the major carbon processes between ecosystem and the atmosphere, their biophysical drivers and how human management affect them ...............................................................................11 Figure 1.4. The theoretical framework on the impact of LUH and CROP on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and soil respiration (Rs) .......................12 Figure 1.5. The location of research sites and experimental design ..................................18 Figure 1.6. The experimental design and schedule of agricultural management...............21 Figure 2.1. The measurements of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) .........35 Figure 2.2. Temporal changes in nine-day moving averages of daily mean air temperature (Ta) ............................................................................................40 Figure 2.3. Annual precipitation by water year from 1989 to 2016 ..................................41 Figure 2.4. The seasonal patterns of NDVI and EVI .........................................................42 Figure 2.5. The CROP effect on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) in fields with different LUH..............................................................................46 Figure 2.6. The LUH effect of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) in different crop types .......................................................................................47 Figure 2.7. Linear regression of log10 soil respiration (log10R) on soil temperature (Ts) ..50 Figure 2.8. Linear regression of soil respiration (R) on soil moisture (VWC) ..................51 Figure 2.9. Linear regression of soil respiration (R) on MODIS vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI) ...........................................................................................52 Figure 2.10. Residuals of the two-level interaction TWV models ....................................55 xii Figure 2.11. The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration across CROP (crop types) .............................................................................................................56 Figure 2.12. The root contribution to total soil respiration across LUH (land use histories)........................................................................................................57 Figure 2.13. The root contribution to total soil respiration over 2011-2014 .....................58 Figure 2.14. Schematic depiction of the impacts of three major forces on soil respiration at different temporal scales .........................................................61 Figure 3.1. Temporal changes of soil respiration and environmental variables across sites and years ...............................................................................................91 Figure 3.2. Temporal changes of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) ..........94 Figure 3.3. Temporal changes of root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration and the correlation between RC and VWC ...............................................................96 Figure 3.4. The seasonality of soil respiration and their drivers in 2011...........................98 Figure 3.5. The seasonality of Rs and Rh across four years ...............................................99 Figure 3.6. The responses of Ra and Rh to VWC .............................................................105 Figure 3.7. The changes of C3:C4 biomass ratio and ecosystem water-use efficiency (eWUE) .......................................................................................................106 Figure 4.1. The probabilities of log10 soil respiration in each year..................................125 Figure 4.2. The distributions of log10 soil respirations temperature sensitivities (β) and the logarithm soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) ....................................127 Figure 4.3. The distributions of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) across years .................129 Figure 4.4. The inter-annual shifts of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) of Ra and Rh for each site across all years .............................................................................130 Figure 4.5. The inter-annual shifts of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) of Ra and Rh for different crops and land use histories across all years ................................131 Figure 5.1. Eddy-covariance tower with instruments for carbon, water and energy cycle monitoring ...................................................................................................152 xiii Figure 5.2. The seasonal and interannual variations of daily NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove, and Rs among sites during 2011-2014 ...............................................................159 Figure 5.3. The mid-growing season (21 May – 20 August) average NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove, and Rs across for each of four years .................................................164 Figure 5.4. The Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH over four years ............................................................................................................166 Figure 5.5. The mid-growing season Reco:NPP and Rs:Reco ratios across years in different sites ...............................................................................................168 Figure 5.6. The cumulative annual NEE, GPP, Reco and mid-growing season Rs across years in different sites .................................................................................171 Figure 5.7. The linear regression models of Reco and mid-growing season Rs to annual GPP .............................................................................................................172 Figure 6.1. The framework of coupled human and nature systems (CHANS) on the impacts that bioenergy development on managed ecosystems ...................184 xiv KEY TO ABBREVIATIONS 9d-Ta Nine day moving average of daily mean air temperature AIC Akaike Information Criterion AGR Corn-Soybean Rotational Conventional Agricultural Field β Ra The temperature sensitivity of logarithm autotrophic soil respiration β Rh The temperature sensitivity of logarithm heterotrophic soil respiration β Rs The temperature sensitivity of logarithm total soil respiration C Corn CO2e Carbon dioxide equivalent, a standard unit for measuring carbon footprints CROP Crop types CRP Conservation Reserve Program DLUC Direct land use change EC Eddy-covariance ECE Extreme climatic event ET Evapotranspiration EVI Enhanced Vegetation Index eWUE Ecosystem water-use efficiency, calculated by GPP/ET F:B ratio Fungi to bacteria ratio GHG Greenhouse gas GPP Gross primary production GWI Global warming impact GWP Global warming potential xv ILUC Indirect land use change LR20 Log10 soil respiration rate at 20 °C LR 20 R a LR 20 R h LR 20 R s The logarithm autotrophic soil respiration rate at 20°C The logarithm heterotrophic soil respiration rate at 20°C The logarithm total soil respiration rate at 20°C LUC Land use conversion/change LUH Land use history MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer NDVI Normalized Difference Vegetation Index NEE Net ecosystem exchange nir Near infrared red PAR Photosynthetically active radiation PN Photosynthesis R Respiration, including different types of respiration. i.e., Rs and Ra in Ch.1 and 2 and Ra, Reco, Rh, and Rs in Ch. 3. Ra Autotrophic soil respiration RC Root contribution to total soil respiration (Ra/Rs ratio) Reco Ecosystem respiration Ref Reference site Rh Heterotrophic soil respiration PAR Photosynthetically active radiation Pr Prairie mixture PRCP Precipitation Rs Total soil respiration xvi SOC Soil organic carbon Sw Switchgrass Ts Soil temperature uz Vertical wind speed VWC Volumetric soil water content VI Vegetation indices, including NDVI and EVI xvii CHAPTER 1 DISSERTATION INTRODUCTION 1.1 OVERVIEW 1.1.1 Global carbon cycle and climatic changes Carbon, the element constructing the chemical frame of most living things on the Earth, plays an important role in biogeochemical cycles and global climate change. Carbon’s distribution, form and presence in reservoirs, the water cycle, energy flow and other cycles is modified by physical, chemical and biological processes—all of which affect climate, from the local to the global scale. Atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as CO2, N2O and CH4, can absorb radiation and trap heat when radiation penetrates the atmosphere. Atmospheric GHG concentrations can thus affect the surface energy balance, change the surface temperature and water distribution and can alter climate. The anthropogenic carbon release from fossil fuels and land use change (LUC) has been recognized as the most important cause of atmospheric CO2 increase (Fig. 1.1, IPCC, 2013). The increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration is believed to majorly increase total radiative forcing and induce global warming (Fig. 1.2, IPCC, 2013). The carbon fluxes between an ecosystem and atmosphere are crucial for estimating the dynamics of the global atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, there is still much uncertainty in how ecosystem carbon budgets respond to climate. We need more research to understand the processes of carbon exchange in different ecosystem-atmosphere interfaces under different climate patterns and future climate changes, and how ecosystems and the atmosphere exchange carbon after LUC at different spatial and temporal scales. 1 Figure 1.1. The major anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the partitioning among three major carbon reservoirs. The top panel shows the dynamics of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion (gray) and land use change (khaki) after 1750. Part of the carbon sinks into land (green) or oceans (dark blue) and part remains in the atmosphere (light blue), which increases the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The emission values were estimated from four models and data during 1750-1850 while the partitioning data is estimated from the combination of multiple-source atmospheric CO2 concentration data, ice cores and models (source: IPCC, 2013). 2 Figure 1.2. A simplified schematic of the global carbon reservoirs and annual fluxes. The units of the carbon stocks in major carbon reservoirs (PgC) and the annual fluxes between reservoirs (PgC yr-1). The red arrows and numbers denote the annual anthropogenic carbon fluxes and accumulated changes over the industrial period (1750-2011) while the black arrows and numbers show annual natural fluxes and the stocks of the natural carbon reservoirs before Industrial Era (after 1750) and assumed stable. The largest two fluxes between atmosphere and other reservoirs are the land flux and the ocean flux that is stable before 1750. The annual contribution of anthropogenic carbon to the atmosphere is 7.8 and 1.1 PgC yr-1 by fossil fuel and cement production and land use change, respectively. Part of them were neutralized by ocean and land sink. The net annual increase of atmospheric carbon is 4 PgC yr-1 (source: IPCC, 2013). 3 1.1.2 The development of biofuel and its impacts on global carbon balance Bioenergy crops have the potential to mitigate GHG emissions, as their net climate forcing is lower than the equivalent energy derived from fossil fuels. This reduction in the amount of GHG emissions, compared with those from fossil fuels, is denoted as “feedstock carbon uptake credit” or “fossil fuel offset credit” (Searchinger et al., 2008; Gelfand et al., 2013). However, there remain many uncertainties and ongoing debates on the “climate neutrality” of biofuel crops (Hansen, 1993; Roberston et al., 2008; Searchinger et al., 2008; Robertson et al., 2011). Land use change from previously uncultivated fields, food-based farms or marginal lands into biofuel plantations, for example, can result in large CO2 emissions during or after the conversion that increase carbon debt (Davidson and Ackerman, 1993; Guo and Gifford, 2002; Searchinger et al., 2008; Kim et al., 2009; Gelfand et al., 2011; Zona et al., 2013) and may offset the GHG benefit of biofuels. Several studies concluded that the net GHG emissions of biofuel croplands are positive after the direct LUC (DLUC) and indirect LUC (ILUC) (Liu, 2015) are counted. However, some research has demonstrated that the management practices also play a major role. Robertson et al. (2000) reported the significant difference in GHG emission between till and no-till croplands and between different successional stages of forest regeneration, while Gelfand et al. (2011) showed that the tillage practices (68 Mg CO2eha-1) tripled the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) of no-till practice (222) after land use conversion if the alterations in C stocks were counted, which changed N2O and CH4 fluxes and the fossil fuel offset credit. Ruan et al. (2013) also made evident that soil CO2 emissions from conventional tillage fields were 1.2 times those in non-tillage fields and 3.1 times those in nonconversion fields. The global warming impact (GWI) of converted soybean fields with nontillage and conventional tillage fields were 15 and 6.37 Mg CO2eha-1 higher than that at non- 4 converted fields. Thus, management practices directly affect soil carbon and nitrogen cycles and change the GHG emissions under different climate patterns at short-term and long-term scales. Further understanding how the major carbon processes in biofuel agricultural ecosystems respond to climate change and variability can help us evaluate the effects of biofuel-induced LUC. More so, it is required in order to improve the estimate of the consequences of biofuelinduced LUC based on the Earth System Models (ESMs). 1.1.3 The drivers of carbon budget in biofuel cropland ecosystem after land use change The amount of GHG emission due to LUC, also known as carbon debt, will diminish over time before reaching a new equilibrium in cropping systems (Fargione et al., 2008; Mitchell et al., 2012). The duration that an established biofuel crop system needs to be in production in order to “payback” the carbon debt after LUC can range from years to over a century. Some studies estimated the payback time using mathematical models that contained multiple variables such as land use history, crop type, and management practices (Gelfand et al., 2011; Mitchell et al., 2012). However, the corresponding mechanisms to understand the responses of GHG emissions are complex and uncertain (Robertson et al., 2011; Anderson-Teixeira et al., 2013), and hence we need more evidence from field studies to understand these mechanisms. Land cover directly or indirectly affects soil erosion, water drainage and soil carbon and nutrient processes, which are important factors driving the soil carbon cycle (Montgomery, 2007; Love and Nejadhashemi, 2011). The carbon stocks prior to LUC and the carbon dynamics during and after LUC determine how the soil acts as either a carbon source or a sink after LUC (Guo and Gifford, 2002; Searchinger et al., 2008). Land cover and land use type, including vegetation type and prior (land use history, LUH) and after (crop type, CROP) conversion, therefore, alter the carbon stocks and dynamics in soils and vegetation. However, LUH and CROP may alter 5 ecosystem carbon dynamics through different biogeochemical processes. While the processes and potential of carbon accumulation in reforestation from abandoned agricultural lands are well known (Compton et al., 1998; Post and Kwon, 2000; Silver et al., 2000; Paul et al., 2002), the climate implications that result from converting agricultural or conservation land into biofuel croplands are not well understood. We need more studies to understand how the expansion or intensification of bioenergy cropping systems around the world impact GHG emissions. Current and historical land use can modify soil carbon, nutrient and soil pools, as well as microbial community composition, affecting plant growth and soil microbial activities and contributing to soil biogeochemical processes. The LUH, therefore, affects the carbon fluxes among soil carbon pools and the surrounding atmosphere (Lugo and Brown, 1993; Compton et al., 1998; Post and Kwon, 2000; Silver et al., 2000; Paul et al., 2002; Kasel and Bennett, 2007). Relatively nutrient-rich soil (e.g., a grassland in the Conservation Reserve Program, CRP) can respond very differently from nutrient-impoverished soil (e.g., fields that have been subject to long-term cultivation of crops, AGR). In the United States, the repatriation of CRP, the conversion of food-based farms (AGR) and marginal lands to biofuel crops, has been a proposed solution to the growing demand for liquid biofuel (Robertson et al., 2011; Duke et al., 2013). The reduction of soil carbon and nitrogen content after AGR on the Great Plains has long been reported in rangeland and prairie soil (Campbell and Souster, 1982; Tiessen et al., 1982; Aguilar et al., 1988; Bowman et al., 1990). Comparatively, converting farmland into CRP grassland generally recovers soil carbon and nitrogen (Burke et al., 1995; Reeder et al., 1998). The understanding of the response of ecosystem carbon flux to climate patterns between CRP and AGR LUH after LUC can help the trajectory of GHG emissions associated with land conversion for biofuel production, and assist the policy making of bioenergy development. 6 Crop types (CROP) of a biofuel agricultural system, after LUC, may regulate the amount and timing of carbon gain/loss of the ecosystem via photosynthesis, carbon allocation strategy and soil respiration (Lugo and Brown, 1993; Raich and Tufekcioglu, 2000; Paul et al., 2002; Zak et al., 2003; Dias et al., 2010; Barron-Gafford et al., 2011; Han et al., 2014). Grain-based biofuel crops and cellulosic biofuel crops are two major liquid biofuel crops that produce a significant amount of ethanol nowadays and in the near future, respectively. Grain-based corn biofuel is the major type of biofuel in the USA nowadays because corn grains contain mostly starch and can be easily converted to ethanol. However, the potential environmental impacts, such as soil erosion and nutrient runoff, of the intensive grain-based crops have been noted as a drawback of corn biofuel (Robertson et al., 2011). Perennial cellulosic biofuels, such as switchgrass and mixed prairie grasses, are considered alternative biofuel feedstock because they provide better ecosystem services (Farrell et al., 2006), such as reducing nitrogen leakage and fertilizer subsidies (Duke et al., 2013). Perennial cellulosic biofuel crops can recover the soil organic carbon (SOC) by establishing perennial vegetation without tillage and can further mitigate the soil erosion and increase SOC stocks in roots (West and Marland, 2003). These alternatives are currently considered as target biofuel crops by the European Union (Roberston et al., 2008). 1.1.4 Major carbon processes and pools of ecosystems Many studies explored the carbon fluxes and storage in ecosystems (Chen et al., 2014). The dynamics of carbon in an ecosystem are mainly determined by carbon gain (GPP) from the photosynthesis (PN) and carbon loss from ecosystem respiration (Reco) (Eq. 1-1). Carbon, energy and water participate in the reactions. The crop captures CO2 and solar energy and transpires water to atmosphere by photosynthesis. The fixed carbon and energy are allocated to different requirements, such as basal metabolism, growth and development of stems, roots, leaves, and the 7 production of secondary compounds and seeds, depending on the phenology, the signal of environmental condition they receive and their survival strategies. Some carbon is allocated to belowground tissues or chemicals, such as coarse and fine roots, root exudates or root symbionts by the plant itself, whereas some eventually enter soil carbon pools after senescence, such as plant residues, litter, dead roots and root exudates. Soil microbial respiration is fueled by organic carbon, which ultimately comes from photosynthesis. Organisms in agricultural ecosystems, whether they are producers, consumers or decomposers, get energy by oxidizing organic matter and releasing CO2 when they respire. The relative rates of photosynthesis and respiration determine the sink or source balance of carbon in an ecosystem and, thereby, net flux of carbon dioxide from the ecosystem to the atmosphere. This is denoted as the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2: 𝑁𝐸𝐸 = 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 − 𝐺𝑃𝑃 Eq. 1-1 where gross primary production (GPP) is the amount of carbon fixed from the atmosphere into the ecosystem via photosynthesis (PN). Ecosystem respiration (Reco) is the sum of carbon loss from the ecosystem/soil to the atmosphere, and NEE is the difference between Reco and GPP. Some ecologists use net ecosystem production (NEP), which is the negative value of NEE, more often than NEE. This is because NEP determines the carbon flux from the atmosphere to the ecosystem, which better represents the ecosystem-centric perspective. One can present the NEP as the following equation. 𝑁𝐸𝑃 = 𝐺𝑃𝑃 − 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 Eq. 1-2 The total ecosystem respiration can be partitioned into aboveground respiration (Rabove) and belowground respiration (a.k.a. soil respiration, Rs) (Eq. 1-3). 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 = 𝑅𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒 + 𝑅𝑠 Eq. 1-3 8 Belowground respiration can also be partitioned into autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration. In my dissertation, I focus on soil respiration. The autotrophic soil respiration (i.e., by plants) is denoted as Ra, while heterotrophic soil respiration (mainly due to microorganisms) is denoted as Rh. 𝑅𝑠 = 𝑅𝑎 + 𝑅ℎ Eq. 1-4 Soil respiration is an important component in the global carbon cycle. First, soil stores 1500-2400 Pg C globally, which is twice as much as the atmosphere (829  10 Pg C) and three times as much as terrestrial vegetation (420-630 Pg C) (Fig. 1.2, IPCC, 2013). A small change of soil carbon efflux due to widespread drivers, such as climate change and land use conversion, can alter global carbon budgets, especially the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. Second, soil respiration can be 60-90% of total ecosystem respiration (Goulden et al., 1996). The variation of soil respiration can change the direction and the amount of carbon flux at local scales. Third, soil carbon efflux responds sensitively and quickly to the climate pattern shifts, climate-derived vegetation changes and agricultural management practices. Soil temperature, soil water and vegetation condition are major drivers of soil respiration. The temperature and rainfall patterns affect the temporal variation of soil respiration directly or indirectly via the vegetationderived carbon subsidy. 1.1.5 The importance of grassland and cropland ecosystems Grassland ecosystems may contain different types of grasses and forbs, with some woody plants and shrubs, and occupy 52.5 million square kilometers, or 40.5 percent of the global terrestrial area excluding Greenland and Antarctica (Suttie et al., 2005). Grassland plays an important role in the global carbon cycle due to its large extent and its large carbon storage capacity. However, our understanding of grassland response to climate is still very limited due to 9 the highly variable vegetation types and compositions, temperature and precipitation patterns, soil properties and disturbances, and the worldwide distribution of these ecosystems. Many studies have shown that grasslands can be carbon sinks, at least during the growing season (Belelli et al., 2007; Flanagan et al., 2002). In contrast, some studies demonstrated that grassland ecosystems can vary between a sink or source of carbon inter-annually (Dugas et al., 1998), depending on precipitation amounts and patterns. Even in the same ecosystem in the same year, the NEE may be highly variable due to the seasonal and intra-annual temperature and rainfall patterns or extreme climate events (Kim, 1992). The different responses between gross primary production (GPP) and total ecosystem respiration (Reco) to the climate patterns and extremes may vary and, sometimes, shift the carbon balance from sink to source. Agricultural ecosystems are similar to grasslands and include variable vegetation types that are distributed worldwide in different climate regimes and soils, store carbon in soil, and experience frequent disturbances that keep the ecosystem in an early successional stage. They exchange all three major GHGs with the atmosphere and are crucial for the mitigation of global warming (Robertson et al., 2000). Cropping ecosystems are intensively managed by humans. Agricultural management practices, such as crop type, the rotation of crops, cover crops, fertilization, tillage, agricultural chemical applications, harvest, and the successional stage, not only change the dominant vegetation, but also affect the physical and chemical status of soil and the soil microbial community, which impacts the biogeochemical cycles and the global warming potential (GWP) (Robertson et al., 2000). 1.2 THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK Many studies explored the carbon stocks in different carbon pools and the fluxes among the pools. The carbon fluxes are controlled by biophysical variables underlying different 10 mechanisms. The different responses of the carbon fluxes due to different mechanisms result in the seasonal and annual fluctuations of carbon dioxide NEE and the relative contributions of different carbon fluxes components (i.e., GPP:Reco, Ra: Rs ratios). The conceptual framework of how the land use conversion affects carbon processes was presented in Fig. 1.3. I hypothesized that the abiotic and biotic variables (i.e., temperature, water and nutrient availability, vegetation types, leaf area index, phenology and soil microbial activities) determine the major carbon processes (i.e., photosynthesis, ecosystem respiration, autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration). Figure 1.3. The conceptual framework of the major carbon processes between ecosystem and the atmosphere, their biophysical drivers and how human management affect them. GPP and Reco determine the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide between the ecosystem and the atmosphere. Biotic and abiotic drivers affect photosynthesis and respiration, indirectly altering NEE. Human management, such as land use change, changes the crop types and soil properties and, therefore affect the biophysical variables and carbon processes. BGC: biogeochemical cycle; GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; LAI: leaf area index; LUH: land use history; CROP: crop types. More specifically, managed land use conversion from different historical land use types may affect the current crop types and soil nutrient content. Different crop types may have different length of phenology stages and carbon allocation strategies, different water tolerance abilities and, water use efficiency and, therefore, they may respond to climate differently. The 11 different soil carbon and nitrogen alter the available soil nitrogen to plants and soil microbes, and, thus, affect plant growth and photosynthesis and carbon emission from soil (Fig. 1.4). In this dissertation, I discuss how soil respiration responds to specific climate patterns and severe droughts across different LUH and CROP at inter-annual (Ch. 2) and intra-annual (Ch. 3) scales. I also develop Bayesian models to understand the R-Ts relationship change resulting from a severe drought (Ch. 4). In Chapter 5, I explored the different responses of GPP, Reco and Rs to the climate pattern and the severe drought in a particular year. Figure 1.4. The theoretical framework on the impact of LUH and CROP on the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 and soil respiration (Rs). PN: photosynthesis; Ra: autotrophic soil respiration; Rh: heterotrophic soil respiration; CRP: Conservation Reserve Program brome grassland; AGR: conventional corn-soybean rotation agricultural farm; SOC: soil organic carbon. CROP affects the biological reaction in the green square while LUH affects the soil microbiological reactions in the orange square. Meteorological factors influence all reactions. 12 1.3 OBJECTIVES My dissertation aims to understand the temporal changes of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and soil respirations (R) in an annual grain (continuous corn, C), a monoculture perennial grass (switchgrass, Sw), and a multicultural perennial grassland crop (prairie mixture, Pr), which are all managed as biofuel crops on land converted either from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grassland or conventional agricultural farmland (AGR). The ecosystems with different CROP and LUH may respond differently to climate patterns within and across years in their gross primary production (GPP), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and the partitioning of ecosystem respiration into total soil respiration (Rs), autotrophic respiration (Ra) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). The responses of respiration to long-term climate patterns, short-term-regular climate events, and the resistance and the resilience to short-term events reveals how carbon processes in these ecosystems respond to climate after land use conversion. 1.3.1 Objectives of Study 1. How do biophysical variables affect soil respiration (R) across years after land use change: (A) Examine the correlation between soil respiration and biophysical variables. (B) Develop regression models of the effects of soil temperature, soil moisture and vegetation index on soil respiration for each study site to predict autotrophic soil respiration (Ra) and the root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration (Ra:Rs ratio). (C) Study the interannual changes of growing-season Ra:Rs ratio after land use changes and a severe drought in fields with different crop types (CROP) and land use histories (LUH). 13 2. How does seasonal variation in biophysical variables affect soil respiration (R): (A) Quantity how the seasonal patterns of temperature and soil moisture relate to the seasonality of soil respiration (Rs and Rh) (B) Study the shift of the relative importance of biophysical variables through the growing season. (C) Compare the seasonality of the Ra: Rh ratio in different CROP and LUH. 3. How does the soil respiration (R) – temperature (Ts) relationship change after the severe drought? (A) Develop an analysis method by the Bayesian approach to elucidate the relationship between soil respiration (R) and its major driver (Ts). The temperature sensitivity () of log R and the log R at 20 oC (LR20) will be estimated based on the models. (B) Understand how the R-Ts relationship shifts after a severe spring-summer drought in different CROP and LUH combinations at the inter- and intra-annual scales. (C) Recognize the immediate and prolonged effects of severe drought on the R-Ts relationship in different CROP and LUH. 4. How do the various carbon fluxes respond to the changes of the major drivers? (A) Explore the predominant regulators of the major carbon fluxes. (B) Examine how the seasonal patterns of GPP:Reco, Rabove:Rs, and Ra:Rh ratios are affected by different microclimate patterns, LUH and CROP. (C) Study the response of important ecological processes, such as GPP, Reco, Rabove, Rs, Ra and Rh to different climatic events (e.g. spring-summer drought), and how these processes alter the NEE of CO2. 14 1.3.2 Hypotheses The estimate of carbon stocks and fluxes were complex and multifaceted, since different drivers alter carbon flow differently, underlying different mechanisms. Biophysical variables on soil respiration, ecosystem respiration and GPP vary across different biomes and climate regimes (Chen et al., 2014). The following is my hypotheses. 1. How do biophysical variables affect soil respiration (R) across years after land use change: (A) Soil respiration exponentially correlates to soil temperature and vegetation indices, but is not significantly correlated to soil water content. (B) Total and heterotrophic soil respiration have different parameters to biophysical variables in different combinations of CROP and LUH fields. (C) Perennial crops have increasing root contributions to total soil respiration, while annual crop does not. The CRP fields have lower RC than AGR fields, but the RC values in CRP fields increase year by year. 2. How does seasonal variation in biophysical variables affect soil respiration (R): (A) The seasonality of soil temperature and vegetation index determines the seasonality of Rs and Rh. (B) Soil water content may be crucial for soil respiration during summer dry period. (C) The RC may be high in early spring and mid-summer due to the high growth and activities of roots while soil microbial activities respond to climate and photosynthesisderived carbon input may be delayed and gentle. Perennial and annual crop have different RC seasonality due to different phenology among the crops. 15 3. How does the soil respiration (R) to temperature (Ts) relationship change with the severe drought? (A) The probability distributions of Rs and Rh are located differently across the -LR20 biplots. The Reference (Ref) field has high  and LR20 while corn fields have low LR20. Other perennial crops have intermediate LR20 values. (B) Both  and LR20 of Ra and Rh in perennial crops decrease in the drought year (2012) and then rebound in the following years (2013 and 2014). The prolonged effects of drought on the R-T relationship in perennial crop fields were remarked. Both  and LR20 of Ra and Rh in annual crops decrease in the drought year (2012). However, the prolonged effect of Ra disappears. 4. How do the various carbon fluxes respond to changing drivers? (A) GPP correlated strongly to photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) while Reco is dominated by temperature. (B) The higher GPP:Reco, Rabove:Rs, and Ra:Rh ratios occurred in early spring and midsummer since production was stronger than respiration, aboveground parts were quicker than belowground parts and because roots were quicker to respond than soil microbes, respectively. The different seasonality of these ratios between perennial and annual crops are due to difference in phenology among the crop types. (C) NEE decreases in order: Ref > annual crop > perennial crops. Ref, the late succession grassland has weak carbon sequestration capability. NEE in annual crop fields are larger than those in perennial crops fields due to shorter growing seasons (GS). (D) The impacts of severe drought on GPP are stronger than it is on Reco, resulting in an increase of NEE. The increasing drought events in the future may decrease the ability to 16 sequester carbon in cropping ecosystems, especially for the annual crop. (E) The Rs:Reco ratio in perennial crop fields increase due to the development of dense root systems while those in annual crop fields do not. 1.4 STUDY AREA My experimental sites are located at the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center scale-up fields of the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS, 42°40’N, 85°40’W), established in association with the KBS Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. The sites are located in the south Michigan, USA (Fig. 1.2). with a humid continental (warm summer) climate (Dfa) (Peel et al., 2007). The mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation at KBS are 10.1 °C and 1005 mm yr-1 (1981-2010), respectively (Robertson & Hamilton, 2015). 17 (A) (B) AGR CRP KBS KBS (C) Figure 1.5. The location of research sites and experimental design. The research fields are located in two areas that have different land use histories at Kellogg Biological Station (KBS) scale-up sites in southwest Michigan (A & B). The two land use histories include CRP and AGR (C). CRP: Conservation Reserve Program brome grassland at Marshall Farms; AGR: conventional corn-soybean rotation agricultural farms at Lux Arbor Reserve. AGR converted to three crop types, switchgrass, prairie mixture and corn. CRP changed to the same crops in AGR, adding a reference site (Ref). The Ref were maintained as CRP brome grass without agricultural practices. 18 1.5 EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN AND SCHEDULE Seven experimental plots were divided between two locations, each with its own land use history (LUH): (1) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands at Marshall Farm; and (2) corn-soybean rotation agricultural fields (AGR) at Lux Arbor Reserve. The CRP sites have been in a monoculture of smooth brome grass (Bromus inermis Leyss) since 1987, while the AGR fields have been under conventional corn-soybean rotation cultivation for several decades (Fig. 1.6). The soil texture at all sites is sandy loam, except for a sandy clay loam at one field. However, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at the CRP sites were significantly higher than those at the AGR sites before the land conversions (Table 1.1). Table 1.1. Soil texture and soil properties of the seven experiment sites before the land use conversion. In the land use history (LUH) column, CRP sites are grasslands of the Conservation Reserve Program and AGR sites are conventional corn-soybean agricultural farms. Different superscripts denote significant difference of nitrogen or carbon content using the t-test (p<0.05). See text and Fig. 1.6 for treatment codes (from KBS LTER datatables; https://lter.kbs.msu.edu/datatables) Treatment Area LUH CRP-C (ha) 17 CRP CRP-Sw 13 CRP CRP-Pr 11 AGR-C 11 Sandy loam (g kg-1 soil) 664±29 257±24 80±8 6.0±0.1 Bulk density (g cm-3) 1.58 Sandy loam 688±25 265±23 48±6 5.7±0.1 1.66 1.6d 18.5c CRP Sandy loam 697±53 245±42 58±12 6.3±0.2 1.59 1.7d 19.5c AGR Sandy loam 577±26 337±23 86±12 6.0±0.1 1.54 1.2a 12.2a a 10.8b AGR-Sw 14 AGR AGR-Pr 13 AGR Ref 9 CRP Soil texture Sandy loam Sandy clay loam Sandy loam Sand Silt Clay Soil pH N C (g kg-1 soil) 2.0c 21.2c 651±31 271±24 79±12 6.1±0.1 1.79 1.1 495±32 360±31 146±10 5.8±0.1 1.69 1.4b 13.5a 583±28 342±25 75±8 6.2±0.1 1.56 1.9c 20.9c The experiment was conducted at seven scale-up fields ranging in size from 9 to 17 hectares. Four fields are located in Marshall Farm (i.e., CRP sites) and three in Lux Arbor Reserve (i.e., AGR sites). All sites, except the reference site (Ref), were sprayed with herbicide at the end of 2008 to prepare the lands for soybean planting in 2009. The CRP and AGR sites 19 were then cultivated with either continuous corn (Zea mays, Dekalb DK-52), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) or a mixture of native prairie grasses that had been dominated by Canada wild rye (Elymus Canadensis), little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii) and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) since 2010. One CRP grassland, dominated by brome grass, was not disturbed and retained as the historical reference site (Gelfand et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2011; Deal et al., 2013; Zenone et al., 2013). I used an experimental code for these sites by abbreviating them as “LUH-CROP”. CRP-C, CRP-Sw and CRP-Pr represent the CRP sites that were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture respectively, while AGR-C, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr are AGR farms converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture. In 2010, when the crops were established, the perennial crops (switchgrass and prairie) were accompanied by oats as nurse crop with and without fertilization, respectively (Fig. 1.6). Switchgrass fields were applied with 55 kg N ha-1 (28% liquid urea ammonium nitrate) on DOY 172. No other management practices were applied beyond harvesting at the end of each growing season. No-till continuous corn was seeded in midMay with a one-time herbicide mix (Lumax, Atrazine 4L, Honcho Plus and (NH4)2SO4). Phosphorus, potassium (P2O5 + K2O, 168.5 kg ha-1 on DOY 95, 2010) and nitrogen fertilizers (112 kg N ha-1 on DOY 165 & 160 in AGR-C and CRP-C, respectively) were applied in 2010. 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Grasslands of the World. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Plant production and protection series, 0259-2025; No. 34. Rome. ISBN: 9251053375. Tiessen, H., Stewart, J.W.B., Bettany, J.R., 1982. Cultivation effects on the amounts and concentration of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus in grassland soils. Aaron Journal, 74, 831-835. West, T.O., Marland, G., 2003. Net carbon flux from agriculture: Carbon emissions, carbon sequestration, crop yield, and land-use change. Biogeochemistry, 63, 73-83. Zak, D.R., Holmes, W.E., White, D.C., Peacock, A.D., Tilman, D., 2003. Plant diversity, soil microbial communities, and ecosystem function: are there any links?. Ecology, 84, 20422050. Zenone, T., Chen, J., Deal, M.W., Wilske, B., Jasrotia, P., Xu, J., Bhardwaj, A.K., Hamilton, S.K., Robertson, P.G., 2011. CO2 fluxes of transitional bioenergy crops: effect of land conversion during the first year of cultivation. GCB Bioenergy, 3, 401-412. Zenone, T., Gelfand, I., Chen, J., Hamilton, S.K., Robertson, G.P., 2013. From set-aside grassland to annual and perennial cellulosic biofuel crops: Effects of land use change on carbon balance. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 182-183, 1-12. 26 Zona, D., Janssens, I.A., Aubinet, M., Gioli, B., Vicca, S., Fichot, R., Ceulemans, R., 2013. Fluxes of the greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O) above a short-rotation poplar plantation after conversion from agricultural land. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 169, 100-110. 27 CHAPTER 2 INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SOIL RESPIRATION AND ITS RESPONSE TO MICROCLIMATE ABSTRACT In this study, I discovered that soil temperature and vegetation type affect soil respiration, whereas soil moisture has weak or no effect. Soil respiration declined in 2012 as the springsummer drought depressed plant growth and soil microbial activity. The drought lasted for just a couple of months but had an impact on soil respiration that lasted for more than one year. The root contribution to total soil respiration deceased in AGR-Sw, CRP-Pr and AGR-Pr fields, implying the drought affected autotrophic respiration more than heterotrophic respiration. The reference field, which did not experience land use change, had the highest soil respiration compared to all experimental treatments except for the CRP-Pr site in 2014, suggesting that the multicultural prairie ecosystem with high soil carbon and nitrogen content had established their extensive root systems within five years after its establishment. The annual crop (corn) had the lowest soil respiration without an obvious trend, considering the drought impact. Perennial crops (switchgrass and prairie mixture) had higher soil respiration than corn. In contrast to corn, perennial crops’ total soil respiration increased over the years after land use change. Pr and CRP had higher rates of increase in Rs than Sw and AGR, respectively. The Rs and Rh in the CRP-Pr site were higher or equal to those in Ref, demonstrating that well established root systems have an association with increasing soil microbial activities. The CRP sites had higher soil respiration than the AGR sites in 2011 due to high soil carbon and nitrogen content. I did not find a clear decline in heterotrophic soil respiration, perhaps due to the legacy effect of the 2012 drought or because the experimental period was too short to detect the change. My study clarified how 28 autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration responds to the impacts of a particular year’s climate pattern and severe drought, as well as the effects caused by land use conversion (i.e., different land use histories and crop types at different temporal scales). 2.1 INTRODUCTION Soil respiration (Rs) plays an important role in the global carbon cycle, as soil contains a huge amount of carbon (Post et al., 1982). Soil respiration is usually the major component of total ecosystem respiration (Goulden et al., 1996; Longdoz et al., 2000) and is an important flux to the atmosphere (Raich et al., 2002; Raich & Schlesinger, 1992; Ryan & Law, 2005; Schlesinger & Andrews, 2000). It is also sensitive to climate and susceptible to climate change, anthropogenic management and agricultural practices. Soil respiration responses to climate- and human-induced environmental changes are crucial components in the overall ecosystem response to global climate change. Many previous studies explored how major biophysical drivers affect soil respiration and how to better model these processes. Temperature, water availability, and carbon substrate supply from canopy photosynthesis (Arrhenius, 1889; Curiel Yuste et al., 2003; Reichstein et al., 2003; Lloyd & Taylor, 1994; van’t Hoff, 1885) affect biogeochemical or ecological processes from individual to ecosystem levels (Hopkins et al., 2013). These drivers can be distinguished as either climate-driven or microclimate-driven, where microclimate is defined here as the conditions at a particular field site (e.g., due to soils, vegetation, and management). However, there are still many gaps in our understanding of how soil respiration responds to the changing climate and human activity, as the net balance of soil carbon is influenced by multiple abiotic (e.g., temperature, moisture and nutrient availability) and biotic (e.g., crop types and soil 29 microbial composition) factors and their interactions. The relative importance of the biophysical drivers that regulate soil respiration vary with climate regime and biome (Hanson et al., 2000). The different components of soil respiration (i.e., Ra and Rh) may be confounding when they have different magnitudes, timing and response durations to the drivers, and when the major physiological and biogeochemical processes are different (Carbone et al., 2011). The situation can be even more difficult to understand when anthropogenic influences, such as land use change and agricultural practices (e.g., due to biofuel crop production), are considered. In this chapter, I discuss how total soil respiration (Rs) and its components (Ra and Rh) respond to variability in climate and microclimate at interannual scale. I examined the effects of land use histories (LUH) and crop types (CROP) on autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration. I hypothesized that annual crop had lower annual soil respiration compared to perennial crops due to the shorter growing season. I also hypothesized that conventional agricultural fields (AGR), which have low soil carbon and nitrogen content, have lower soil respiration than CRP fields. I clarify the correlations between soil respiration (Rs and Rh) and the major biophysical drivers (Ta, VWC, NDVI and EVI) and establish the temperature-watervegetation (TWV) models for Rs and Rh based on the correlations. The adjusted Rh and Ra were calculated and the root contribution (RC) of soil respiration was estimated for each year. I assumed that RC would be lower in severely dry years, where water deficit depresses the growth of plants during growing seasons and, thus, limits the activities of roots more than the soil microbial community. 2.2 METHODS 2.2.1 Study area 30 My experimental sites are located at the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center scale-up fields at the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS, 42°40’N, 85°40’W), established in association with the KBS Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. The sites are located in the southwest of Michigan, USA (Fig. 1.2), with a humid continental (warm summer) climate (Dfa) (Peel et al., 2007). The mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation at KBS are 10.1 °C and 1005 mm yr-1 (1981-2010), respectively (Robertson & Hamilton, 2015). 2.2.2 Experimental design and schedule Seven experimental plots were located at two locations, each with its own land use histories (LUHs): (1) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands at Marshall Farm, and (2) corn-soybean rotation agricultural fields (AGR) at Lux Arbor Reserve. The CRP sites have been a monoculture of smooth brome grass (Bromus inermis Leyss) since 1987, while the AGR fields have been under conventional corn-soybean rotation cultivation for several decades (Fig. 1.6). The soil texture at all sites is sandy loam, except for one field, which has sandy clay loam. However, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at the CRP sites were significantly higher than those at the AGR sites before land conversion (Table 1.1). The experiment was conducted at seven scale-up fields ranging from 9-17 hectares. Four fields are located in Marshall Farm (i.e., CRP sites) and three in Lux Arbor Reserve (i.e., AGR sites). All sites, except the reference site (Ref), were sprayed with herbicide at the end of 2008 to prepare the lands for soybean planting in 2009. The CRP and AGR sites were then cultivated with either continuous corn (Zea mays, Dekalb DK-52), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), or a mixture of native prairie grasses dominated by Canada wild rye (Elymus Canadensis), little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) since 2010. One CRP grassland, 31 dominated by brome grass, was not disturbed and retained as the reference site (Gelfand et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2011; Deal et al., 2013; Zenone et al., 2013). I used an experimental code for these sites by abbreviating them as “LUH-CROP”. CRP-C, CRP-Sw and CRP-Pr represent the CRP sites that were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture respectively, while AGR-C, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr are AGR farms converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture. In 2010, when the crops were established, the perennial crops (switchgrass and prairie) were accompanied by oats as a nurse crop with and without fertilization, respectively (Fig. 1.6). No other management practices were applied beyond harvesting at the end of each growing season. No-till continuous corn was seeded in mid-May with a one-time herbicide mix (Lumax, Atrazine 4L, Honcho Plus and (NH4)2SO4). Phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen fertilizers were applied during April and June in each year (Bhardwaj et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2013). 2.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification Climatic factors, such as air temperature (Ta) and daily precipitation (PRCP), and microclimate, such as soil temperature and soil water content, were recorded as the independent variables. They were recorded at different spatial and temporal scales based on the requirement of research and the limitation of equipment and labor. The daily mean Ta and daily accumulative PRCP were collected and calculated from the KBS LTER Weather station (42°24’47.1” N, 85°22’15.3” W; lter.kbs.msu.edu). The air temperature was recorded hourly by a thermometer at 3 m height. The mean daily air temperature was calculated from the hourly data. Precipitation was measured by a NOAH IV total precipitation gauge (ETi Instrument Systems Inc., Fort Collins, CO). Soil temperature (Ts) and volumetric soil water content (VWC) were measured simultaneously with soil respiration rate measurements biweekly during late April to September 32 and monthly during other times. Soil temperature was measured at 10 cm depth using a Taylor 8940N digital thermometer (Taylor Precision Products, Las Cruces, NM, USA) while VWC was monitored from the ground surface to 10 cm depth by a HydroSense II with a CS659 sensor (Campbell Scientific, Inc. (CSI), Logan, UT). The length of the growing season is an important index for climate change and agriculture. There are several identifications that are based on climate and crop growth. Here, I used temperature-based identification, which is the most common in the North America (a.k.a. frost-free season), instead of the crop-based growing season, since soil respiration includes the soil microbe-derived carbon efflux, not only plant-derived soil carbon efflux. The onset and the end of the climatic growing season (GS) in each year was calculated based on the 9-day moving average of daily mean air temperature (9d-Ta) to filter short-term warm or cold events, which may not induce the start of plant growth and development in spring. The onset of the GS was identified as the first day of exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in spring while the end of the GS was recognized as the latest day of exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in fall. The lengths of the GS were the number of dates between the onset and the end of the GS in each year. To compare the soil respiration rates, climate and microclimate, and the vegetation indices, I separated the data into different years based on the USGS “water year” concept using October 1st to September 30th since it is more meaningful than the calendar year in agriculture research. I identified the water year in my dissertation from the end of the previous GS until the end of this GS because the post-GS precipitation may subsidize the soil water pool and will support the consumption for plants and soil microbes in the next GS. The length of the water year may be different due to the different seasonal patterns of air temperature in fall and winter. 2.2.4 The total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements 33 Four plots at each site were randomly selected to install 1 x 1 m root exclusion plots for heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). We dug a 1 m deep trench at each edge of the square (Fig. 2.1 (B)). The trenches were lined with root-barrier sheets before refilling the soil back according to its soil profile (Fig. 2.1 (C); Tang et al., 2005). The plants and roots inside the square were manually removed and/or killed by herbicide (Monsanto Roundup®). Two 10 cm inner diameter PVC collars were installed inside the square to accommodate flux chambers to measure Rh. Another two collars were installed surrounding the square to measure total soil respiration (Rs) (Fig. 2.1(D)). A total of 112 measurements (including Rh and Rs) were taken between 10 am to 7 pm when soil respiration is at its diel maximum. Soil respiration was measured biweekly during the growing season and monthly during the non-growing season when snow cover was minimal to allow for measurements from October to December. The chamber-based infrared gas analyzer (IRGA) approach for soil respiration measurement was done with an LI-6400 portable photosynthesis system with a 10 cm diameter 6400-09 soil chamber or an LI-8100 with a 10 cm diameter 8100-102 soil chamber (LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, NE). 34 (A) 1m 1m Root exclusion area Control 10 cm 1m depth (B) (C) (D) Figure. 2.1. The measurements of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). A 1m x 1m x 1m cube was entrenched in the soil and isolated for heterotrophic soil respiration measurement. The total soil respiration plots were placed near the heterotrophic soil respiration plots (A). The four vertical sides of the cube were entrenched (B) and material-exchangeable sheets were embedded in the trenches (C) to prevent the invasion of roots. The crops were killed by Monsanto Roundup®. Soil respiration rate was measured by an infrared gas analysis (IRGA) of CO2 changes in the chamber headspace (D). Two 10 cm diameter collars were installed at least one day before respiration measurement. 35 2.2.5 Vegetation Index data Vegetation indices, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were calculated based on satellite remote sensing using band 1 (nir), band 2 (red), and band 3 (blue) of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The NDVI was determined by the ratio of the difference between near-infrared reflectance and red reflectance to their sum (Tucker et al., 2005), while EVI was further modified with a soil adjustment factor, L, and two atmospheric aerosol scattering coefficients— C1 and C2—(Huete et al., 1999) and had a higher sensitivity at the “green” portion of the spectrum when vegetation was very dense. These data were developed from MODIS daily products by selecting an optimal day during every 16-day interval (i.e., low cloud cover). Missing data may appear when clouds obscured the site over an entire 16-day period. NDVI and EVI data were downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.shtml). I used a single pixel from each site’s MODIS image at the finest spatial resolution of 250 m found mostly within each experimental site. The dates of NDVI and EVI values were paired with the nearest dates of soil respiration measurement. 2.2.6 The temperature-water-vegetation (TWV) models & Ra:Rh ratio Multiple factor models that contain the effects of Ts, VWC, EVI and their interactions were developed and tested. The experiment treatments (seven sites: 2 LUH * 3 CROP + Ref) were set as a categorical factor and the following function was tested: 𝑅 = 𝑓(𝑇𝑠 ) ∙ 𝑔(𝑉𝑊𝐶) ∙ ℎ(𝐸𝑉𝐼) ∙ 𝑖(𝐶𝑅𝑂𝑃, 𝐿𝑈𝐻) Eq. 2-1 where R is total (Rs) or heterotrophic (Rh) soil respiration, and f(Ts), g(VWC) and h(EVI) are the 36 effects of soil temperature, soil moisture and vegetation condition on R, respectively. The functions of f(Ts), g(VWC) and h(EVI) were assumed as log-linear, quadratic, or linear based on observed relationships between R and Ts, VWC, and EVI, from previously published research, and the best correlations between R-Ts, R-VWC and R-EVI. The equations containing two-level interactions and the variables themselves were tested. The final models would include the equation with first and secondary orders in terms (Supplement 2-4). The variables and their parameters were modeled by actual data. The best models for Rs and Rh were separately selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The level of Rh was adjusted to the same Ts and VWC condition of Rs for calculation of the autotrophic soil respiration (Ra). The root contribution (RC) to soil respiration (Ra: Rs ratio) was calculated for all measurement dates in the growing season. 2.2.7 Data analysis The temperature sensitivity (Q10) of R was computed based on the exponential relationship between soil temperature at 10 cm depth and soil respiration at each site by year. The coefficients and Q10 were estimated by the function, 𝑅 = 𝛼 ∗ 𝑒𝑥𝑝𝛽𝑇𝑠 , where 𝑄10 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝10𝛽 . To compare across treatments, Q10 were then analyzed using a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) among sites for each year. The Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between soil respiration (Rh and Rs) and their potential controlling factors (Ts, VWC, NDVI, and EVI) by site and year. The LUH effects (i.e., AGR, CRP and Ref) on Rs and Rh were compared in different crops (i.e., C, Sw, and Pr) in each year by one-way ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD test. Similar comparison of CROP effects on Rs and Rh were analyzed in different LUH in each year. The Ra: Rs ratios among years were compared by ANOVA and Tukey’s HSD test as well. All statistical 37 analyses and graphs were conducted in R (R Development Core Team, 2010). 2.3 RESULTS 2.3.1 Climatic and microclimatic variables and the growing seasons The onsets of the GS occurred each year in late March (DOY=90, 85, and 87) while the ends of the GS were in mid-November to early-December (DOY= 341, 326, and 318) in 2011, 2013, and 2014, respectively, based on the 9-day moving average air temperature (9d-Ta). The lengths of the GS were 251, 214, and 231 days in 2011, 2013, and 2014, respectively. However, 2012 had a very long GS (299 days) because of its early onset (DOY=57) and late end (DOY=356) (Fig. 2.2). Air temperature in March 2012 was extremely high (ca. 10C higher than other years), although it fell back to normal levels in April (Table S.2.1). The maximum 9d-Ta was 26.51, 27.91, 25.84, and 22.28C for 2011–2014, respectively. The maximum air temperature in 2014 was lower than other years. Reviewing the Ta data in more detail, 2012 had the hottest summer with a 30.67 C mean daily Ta on July 6th. Years 2011 and 2013 also had high mean daily Ta, reaching 29.88 and 29.25 C, respectively, while 2014 had a mean daily Ta of 24.81 C. July Ta means in 2011 and 2012 were significantly higher than those in 2013 and 2014 (Supplement 2-1). Soil temperature showed the same patterns (Supplement 2-1) although the data were only collected biweekly during the daytime. Generally speaking, 2011 and 2012 had hotter growing seasons while 2013 and 2014 had cooler, especially in July. The year 2012 had very hot March temperatures that advanced the onset of growing season. Annual precipitation (PRCP) ranged from 636 to 1238 mm between 1989 and 2016. Precipitation patterns seem to have shifted over those years. The precipitation was lower with smaller inter-annual variations before 1999, and was very low in 1999. Precipitation increased 38 and had a higher variation after 1999. During my experimental period 2011–2014, the PRCPs were 1023, 796, 1139, and 971 mm, respectively. The difference between actual PRCP and the 5-year averages were 69, -177, 119, and -33 mm in 2011 to 2014, respectively. The year 2012 had a very low PRCP while the year 2013 was very wet (Fig. 2.3). Changes in VWC were highly synchronized with precipitation. The VWCs in 2012 were very low during April and June under canopy and during April and July across bare land (Table S.2.1). 39 Figure 2.2. Temporal changes in nine-day moving averages of daily mean air temperature (Ta). Air temperature was measured at the KBS LTER Weather station. The green, red, blue and purple lines present daily mean Ta in 2011–2014, respectively. The Ta was calculated by an average nine-day ( 4 days) moving filter in order to more clearly display the seasonal trend. The colored arrows and the colored numbers indicate the DOY of the onset, the maximum Ta and the end of the growing season in spring, summer and fallwinter, respectively. The numbers in brackets show the maximum 9-day average of daily mean Ta (C) in each year. 40 Figure 2.3. Annual precipitation by water year from 1989 to 2016. Five-year moving averages were calculated to better show the long-term trend. The 95% confidence intervals represent the variation in five-year average. The dots show the annual precipitation of each water year. Water year is defined from 1 October to 30 September from USGS. The residual is the difference between the actual annual precipitation and the five-year moving average. Green, red, blue and purple dots were the experimental years 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. The data were collected by the KBS LTER weather station. 41 2.3.2 The Vegetation Indices: NDVI and EVI NDVI and EVI showed a hump shape, reflecting the phenology of crops. However, both NDVI and EVI dropped in June in 2012, revealing the slow growth (or even wilting) of crops due to the drought stress in that year (Fig. 2.4). The values of EVI rebounded in August, but the maximum values were lower than those in other years. The vegetation indices coincided with my field observations that crops wilted in June. Figure 2.4. The seasonal patterns of NDVI and EVI. The NDVI and EVI values were calculated from MODIS images. Each site had one pixel. The dates of data were fit to the nearest dates of soil respiration measurements. There were dates with two missing data due to continuously cloudy days in late summer 2013. 2.3.3 CROP and LUH effects on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) 2.3.3.1 The effects of CROP, LUH and their interactions on Rs and Rh Both CROP and LUH had significant effects on Rs and Rh. The Ref site always had the highest means and variances of Rs and Rh in all years. In comparison to the other crop types, Ref had the highest Rs, followed sequentially by Pr, Sw and C. Also, LUH had the highest effect on Ref, followed by CRP and AGR (Supplement 2-5). At the annual scale (2011–2014), corn had the lowest R although it was sometimes close 42 to Sw (Rs in 2011; Rh in 2012 and 2014). In first three years (2011–2013), R in Sw and Pr were similar and smaller than R in Ref and larger than R in corn. However, over time, the R in Pr increased and became very close to R in Ref in 2014. A similar pattern was apparent in Rs: Pr was similar to Ref, but not Sw. The effects of CROP and LUH in 2012 were different from the other years. Both Rs and Rh in this year were lower than other years, especially for Rh. The effects of LUH and CROP were smaller since the values of Rs and Rh were very low in 2012. For CROP effects, the Rh in C-Sw-Pr and in Sw-Pr-Ref showed no significant difference while AGR-CRP showed the similar R (Supplement 2-5). The Ref field still had highest mean soil respiration but its variance was high. 2.3.3.2 The effects of CROP in different LUH Comparing the CROP effects between the two different LUHs separately, I found that the Ref field usually had the highest Rs and Rh in all years, except CRP-Pr in 2014; Corn always had the lowest; while Sw and Pr had intermediate rates that were lower than Ref but higher than corn. The chronological comparison showed the highest soil respiration rates in 2011, which was a warm and wet year with higher than usual crop yields in the region. Both Rs and Rh were lower in 2012 when it was warm and dry and rebounded in the subsequent cooler and wetter years, 2013 and 2014. Thus, the crops had different magnitudes of response that reflected their respective LUH. In CRP sites, both Rs and Rh were separated into two groups, annual and perennial crops, based on Tukey’s HSD test. All Rh in 2012 was reduced to the similar level and the difference disappeared while the Rs in Ref was still significantly higher than Rs in Sw, Pr and C. After the dry year, Rh in Sw and Ref increased, although they did not become statistically different. The Rs 43 of perennial crops in 2013 and 2014 were higher than Rh. This was especially true for Pr. The Rs in Pr was higher than those in Sw in 2014 (Fig. 2.5 (A)). In AGR sites, the relative differences of R among crops and years were similar to those in CRP sites. The Ref field always had highest Rs and Rh, followed by Pr, Sw, and C. However, the three crops usually had larger differences relative to Ref, compared to those at CRP sites. Soil respiration in Pr did not rebound strongly like those in CRP sites (Fig. 2.5 (B)). 2.3.3.3 The effects of LUH in different CROP Comparing the two LUH (i.e., CRP vs. AGR) and Ref, AGR had the lowest soil respiration rates while Ref usually had the largest rates. The changes of Rs and Rh among years were similar to those in the description in CROP effects: they were highest in 2011, depressed in 2012 and then rebounded in 2013 and 2014. However, the speed and the magnitude of the changes of soil respiration were different between crops in fields of different LUH. In corn fields, Rh was different between AGR and CRP in 2011, 2012 and 2014, while Rs was similar. The Ref field always had significantly higher Rs and Rh. No obvious chronological trends were found for either Rs or Rh (Fig. 2.6 (A)). Comparing the interannual patterns in Rs and Rh between AGR- and CRP-Sw fields for only the second year after land use change (2011), CRP had a higher Rh and Rs than AGR. After 2011, however, both Rh and Rs in AGR and CRP were similar; yet, Ref always had a higher Rs than AGR. The Rs in CRP was similar to that of Ref in 2011, but reduced and then became similar to AGR and Ref in 2013 and 2014 (Fig. 2.6 (B)). The Rh of CRP-Pr was closer to Ref and was higher than that in AGR-Pr in 2011. All Rh in three sites were not different when they were depressed in 2012, like all other crops. However, Rh and Rs in CRP-Pr increased a lot in 2013 and 2014, reaching even higher values than those in 44 Ref although there was no significant difference (Fig. 2.6 (C)). 45 (A) Rs Rh Rs Rh (A) (B) (B) Figure 2.5. The CROP effect on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) in fields with different LUH. CRP (A) and AGR (B) refer to the previous land use. The letters presented the statistical results from Tukey’s TSD test between crops in the same LUH and in the same year. The letters display the means of R values in each treatment from small to large alphabetically. 46 (A) Rs Rh Rs Rh (B) Figure 2.6. The LUH effect of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) in different crop types. Corn (A), switchgrass (B), and prairie mixture (C) are shown with total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) in different panels. The letters presented the statistical results from Tukey’s HSD test between crops in the same crop types and in the same year. The letters display the means of R values in each treatment from small to large alphabetically. 47 Figure 2.6. (cont’d) (C) Rs Rh 48 2.3.4 Soil respiration regulators Soil respiration had different relationships with three major drivers: temperature, soil water content, and vegetation. Both Rs and Rh had similar correlations with these drivers. Soil respiration was positively, exponentially related to Ts (Tables S.2.1, 2.2 and Fig. 2.7) and positively linearly correlated to VIs (Fig. 2.9 (A) & (B)), but was weakly negative or not correlated to VWC (Fig. 2.8). The percent variation in log10R explained by Ts ranged from 47% to 90% in all data, mostly between 60% and 80%. The results revealed the strong exponential relationship between R and Ts. The regression slopes for log10Rs-Ts were greater than the slopes for log10Rh-Ts (Fig. 2.7), suggesting that the Rs had higher temperature sensitivity than Rh, although the difference was not significant because of high within-group variation (Q10, Table S.2.3). Soil VWC showed no correlation (p > 0.05) or a weak, negative linear correlation (0.05 > p > 0.01) with Rs and Rh (Table S.2.2). A quadratic relationship fit better. However, the importance of VWC to soil respiration appeared different among years. VWC was a weak driver in wet years, such as 2013 and 2014. For example, R and VWC at all sites except AGR-Sw were not correlated (p > 0.05). On the contrary, R in most sites was correlated to VWC in 2011 and 2012 when the spring and the summer were dry (Fig. 2.8; Table S.2.2). NDVI and EVI had strong, positive linear correlations with log10R (Figs. 2.9(A) & (B); Table S.2.2). The slopes of Rs-NDVI/EVI and Rh-NDVI/EVI are close, but most Rs-NDVI/EVI regressions have larger intercepts. The regression slopes in 2012 are visibly higher than those in 2011, 2013, and 2014 (Figs. 2.9(A) & (B)), suggesting that the relationship of VI on Rs was stronger in 2012 (Table S.2.2). 49 Figure 2.7. Linear regressions of soil respiration (log10R) on soil temperature (Ts). The soil respiration values were the average of measurements from four plots in each field. The solid circles and solid lines were Rs. The empty circles and dashed lines show Rh. 50 Figure 2.8. Linear regressions of soil respiration (R) on soil moisture (VWC). The solid circles show the average Rs from four plots in each research field, and the empty circles show the mean Rh. The solid lines are linear regressions for Rs-VWC while the empty circles and dashed lines are the linear regressions of Rh-VWC. 51 (A) Figure 2.9. Linear regression of soil respiration (log10R) on MODIS vegetation indices (NDVI and EVI). The soil respiration values were the average of measurements from four plots in each research site. The solid circles and solid lines were Rs. The empty circles and dash lines were Rh. 52 Figure 2.9. (cont’d) (B) 53 2.3.5 Temperature sensitivity (Q10) of soil respiration The Q10 values for soil respiration ranged from 1.20 to 1.86, although the differences are not significant due to high within-group variation. The ranges of Q10 were smallest in 2011 (1.31-1.57) followed by 2012 (1.20-1.60), 2014 (1.30-1.86), and 2013 (1.26-1.81 μmol CO2 m-2s1 ). The range of Q10 was only 0.26 in 2011 and 0.56 and 0.55 in 2013 and 2014, respectively. The smallest Q10 (1.20) occurred in the dry summer of 2012, and the largest Q10 (1.86) in the wettest year (2013) (Supplement 2-3). It is not clear whether the high variations of Q10 are due to the 2013 wet spring or the dry-rewet recovery in 2012-2013. 2.3.6 Temperature-Water-Vegetation (TWV) multiple variable models for soil respiration After testing many regression models including three biophysical variables: Ts, VWC, EVI, separately and their interactions, the AIC values shows that the models that contain all three factors (i.e., Ts, VWC, and EVI) with their relationships (exponential, exponential and linear for Ts, VWC, and EVI, respectively) and some of their second-order interactions, explain Rs and Rh well. I do not include higher-order interactions between biophysical factors since it is difficult to explain the ecological meaning. The parameters of each term in the best-fit biophysical R model are listed in Supplement 2-4. The Rs and Rh models were similar but the interactions of log10VWC:EVI and Ts:CROP/LUH terms were removed from the Rs model. The adjusted R2 are 0.62 and 0.53 for Rs and Rh, respectively. The residuals of the TWV models of log10Rs and log10Rh seem acceptable (Fig. 2.9). 54 Figure 2.10. Residuals of the two-level interaction TWV models. The x-axis is the predicted value of log10Rs (left) and log10Rh (right) from the TWV model, while the y-axis is the residuals (i.e., difference between measured data and modeling estimates). 2.3.7 Ra:Rh ratio and the root contribution to soil respiration The estimates of Rs and Rh were calculated based on TWV models with actual Ts, VWC and EVI values at Rs plots (canopy-covered) during the GS. The Ra was calculated as the difference between the paired measurements of Rs and Rh. The values of RC ranged from 0.31 in CRP-C field to 0.57 in CRP-Sw field. Generally speaking, CRP-C had the smallest RC values (0.31 ~ 0.33) while the Ref site always had highest RC values (0.54 ~ 0.56). The RC values in other sites were between CRP-C and Ref (Table. 2.1). RCs in CRP fields increased in the order C < Pr < Sw < Ref. In AGR fields, Sw significantly had lower RC than other three crop fields (Fig. 2.11). Between the two LUH, CRP fields usually had higher RC than AGR, except switchgrass fields. The RCs in the AGR-Pr field were the same as those in the Ref field (Figure 2.12). The RC values in most fields decreased in 2012, except for CRP-Sw (Table 2.1 & Fig. 2.13). Tukey’s HSD tests showed that the Ra:Rs ratios in Ref and in AGR-Pr field were all the same over the four years. The AGR-Sw and CRP-Pr had lower RC in 2012 compared to other years while CRP-Sw had high RC in 2012 (Fig. 2.13). 55 Table. 2.1. The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration. RCs (a.k.a. Ra:Rs ratios) were calculated from the estimates of TWV models. The values were mean ± 1 s.d. CROP: crop type; LUH: land use history; C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie; Ref: reference; CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn-soybean rotation agriculture. 2011 2012 2013 2014 CROP LUH 0.32 ± 0.05 0.32 ± 0.04 0.31 ± 0.05 0.33 ± 0.06 C CRP 0.46 ± 0.10 0.43 ± 0.06 0.49 ± 0.12 0.51 ± 0.13 AGR 0.47 ± 0.08 0.57 ± 0.17 0.46 ± 0.08 0.47 ± 0.10 Sw CRP 0.45 ± 0.14 0.35 ± 0.24 0.43 ± 0.14 0.44 ± 0.17 AGR 0.45 ± 0.06 0.29 ± 0.18 0.39 ± 0.12 0.41 ± 0.09 Pr CRP 0.51 ± 0.03 0.51 ± 0.04 0.52 ± 0.05 0.53 ± 0.04 AGR 0.56 ± 0.04 0.56 ± 0.04 0.54 ± 0.06 0.54 ± 0.06 Ref Figure 2.11. The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration across CROP (crop types). The CROP effects on Ra/Rs ratio in CRP fields (A) and in AGR fields (B) are shown, where Rs is estimated from the TWV model and Ra is calculated as the difference between Rs and Rh. The letters indicate the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn-soybean rotation agriculture; C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie; Ref: reference. 56 Figure 2.12. The root contribution to total soil respiration across LUH (land use histories). The LUH effects on Ra/Rs ratio in corn (A), switchgrass (B) and prairie fields (C) are shown, where Rs is estimated from the TWV model and Ra is calculated as the difference between Rs and Rh. The letters indicate the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. LUH: land use history; CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn-soybean rotation agriculture; C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie; Ref: reference 57 Figure 2.13. The root contribution to total soil respiration over 2011–2014. The Rs was estimated from the TWV model and Ra was calculated as the difference between Rs and Rh. The yearly variations of Ra/Rs ratios are indicated by their CROP (between panels) and LUH (within panel). Solid dots with solid lines show CRP while empty circles with dashed lines show AGR sites. The error bars were one standard deviation. The letters presented the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites. The capitals present the statistical results of CRP and the lowercase letters represent the results of AGR fields. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. 2.4 DISCUSSION 2.4.1 The major biophysical drivers of soil respiration Many recent studies show that the major biophysical drivers for soil respiration are typically temperature, soil water content, substrate supply from plants, and their interactions (Luo et al., 2001; Curiel Yuste et al., 2004). These drivers may affect soil respiration via different mechanisms and have different correlations to soil respiration. The relative importance of different biophysical factors may change depending on the biogeochemical processes and their feedback in different climate regimes and ecosystems within and among years. In my ecosystems, soil temperature and vegetation indices were positively and exponentially correlated 58 with soil respiration. Soil water content had weak or no correlation with soil carbon dioxide efflux and was more likely a limiting factor for soil respiration only when it was low (Figs. 2.7, 2.8 & 2.9). The inter-annual and intra-annual variations and the pulses of biophysical factors affect the temporal variations of soil respiration during the growing season. Legacy effects play important roles as well. The different biophysical factors may control soil respiration by different ways and at different temporal scales. Long-term climate patterns (e.g., the temporal variations of temperature, photoperiods and light quality), short-term regular climate events (e.g., periodic flooding or drought), and short-term occasional events (e.g., heat waves, rain pulses) can alter ecosystem functions. Some of the influences of the abiotic factors explicitly change soil respiration when it is happening while others may not present effects immediately. The “carryover effects” may alter community structure, change species richness and evenness, and affect important ecological processes within or among years (Flanagan, 2009). For example, the cumulative effect of temperature (e.g., growing degree days) affect the plant phenology and biomass production, which influence both carbon uptake and water consumption by the plants, and further alter autotrophic and heterotrophic soil respiration via the root growth and soil substrate supply and water availability. On the contrary, the soil water availability, which depends predominately on precipitation inputs and evapotranspiration outputs, can limit the activities of plant and soil microbes and affect soil respiration in the growing season when water availability is limited. In the studied ecosystems, I hypothesized that three major forces control the soil respiration at different temporal scales and with different consequences (Fig. 2.12). I made the schematic chart for soil respiration across years based on the correlation between R and 59 biophysical factors and the actual values of the drivers in each year (Fig. 2.12 (A)). If I add the impacts of severe drought and assume that the sites require more than one year to recover, the values of R fit better for our data (Fig. 2.12 (B)). The effects of CROP and LUH after LUC may be different on Ra and Rh. The perennial crops may develop their extensive root systems after land use change and increase the autotrophic soil respiration while annual crop does not have such an extensive root system (Fig. 2.12 (C) CRPpere and AGRpere). Annual crops should have consistent Ra from year to year since they will die and be replanted every year (Fig. 2.12 (C) CRPann and AGRann). The CRP sites should have relatively higher root system establishment due to the more fertile soil. The year-to-year trends of Rh will be opposite to those of Ra at CRP sites since plant and soil microbes will consume soil nutrients, especially nitrogen. The changes of soil respiration may or may not be evident depending on the relative strength of different drivers and their interactions and feedback. The crop may adapt to its environment and diminish the magnitude of changes. 60 (A) (B) (C) Ts Ra Ra or Rh CRPpere AGRpere CRPann AGRann 2011 VWC Ra LUC drought 2012 2013 2014 LUC Rh CRP Rh year Ra or Rh AGR 2010 2011 vegetation 2012 2013 2014 year (D) LUC climate disturbance annual biophysical factors annual biophysical factors 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 1 year 10 100 year Figure 2.14. Schematic depiction of the impacts of three major forces on soil respiration at different temporal scales. (A) The interannual variation in R is driven by biophysical factors and the actual biophysical conditions in each year. The interannual variation in biophysical factors (Ts, VWC and vegetation) affect annual R. (B) The 2012 severe drought depressed soil respiration, which took more than one year to recover. (C) The Ra was affected by the establishment of root systems. Perennial crops (CRPpere & AGRpere) will have increasing Ra while the annual corn crop (CRPann & AGRann) will have consistent Ra across years after land use change. The rate of root establishment will be higher in CRP sites owing to its more fertile soil. CRP sites will have decreasing Rh chronologically that reflects the gradual depletion of soil nutrients while AGR sites will have relatively consistent Rh. The LUC occurred in 2009. (D) The temporal scales of biophysical effects on R may range from less than a year to decades in the case of LUC. During my study period, both Rs and Rh had similar year-to-year trends, although the magnitudes were different in different CROP or LUH treatments. In 2011, soil respiration rates were highest when both temperature and precipitation were high. In 2012, the hot and springsummer dry year, soil respiration was depressed in all sites. Soil respiration rates in 2013 and 61 2014 were higher than those in 2012, although it had lower summer temperatures (Figs. 2.5 & 2.6). The combination of biophysical variables (TWV models) explained 62% and 53% of variation in Rs and Rh for all sites over all four years. The individual variables in each experimental site may explain up to 89% of the variation (i.e., the effect of Ts on Rs in AGR-Pr in 2013; Table S.2.2). However, the changes of soil respiration were confounded between responses to the biophysical variables in a particular year, the recovery after extreme climate events (i.e., severe drought), and the long-term trends after LUC. The former two were climateinduced effects while the latter one was due to human management. The Ref field is the only one that was driven by climate variability as opposed to LUH and management changes. The Rs and Rh in Ref were highest in 2011, dropped in 2012 and then rebounded in 2013 and 2014 (Fig. 2.5). The warm temperatures with enough water in 2011 supported a good environment for plants and soil microbes, thus explaining the high soil respiration. In 2012, the hottest and longest growing season resulted in lower soil respiration. The severe spring-summer drought suppressed both plant growth and soil microbial activities, resulting in the lowest soil respiration observed over the four years. The sudden drop of NDVI and EVI in June 2012 (Fig. 3.1 (C)) confirms the drought effect on above ground plant biomass, supporting the hypothesis that the spring-summer drought affected both Ra and Rh directly or indirectly via reduced plant growth and soil carbon substrate supply. The consequences fit our hypothesis that soil water content plays a crucial role at times when water is limiting, which also tend to be the times with warmest temperatures. Comparing the post-drought years, I found that soil respiration was higher in 2014 than in 2013, which was the reverse of the summer soil temperature levels. It means that the roots and 62 soil microbes had a lower metabolism in 2013 than in 2014, even though the summer temperature was higher in 2013 and when soil water was not a limitation. The drought-recovery hypothesis was a better fit (Fig. 2.12 (B)) than the biophysical hypothesis alone (Fig. 2.12 (A)). The results imply that soil respiration requires at least two years to recover from the damage of a severe spring-summer drought. The reasonable hypothesis is that the carbon-related biogeochemical processes, the community structure of plant and soil microbes, and/or their physiological traits changed during the drought and it spent longer than one year to reach a new equilibrium. However, there is a difference in the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration across the years, which had high variations. I developed a method to understand the change in the R-T relationship and find its trajectory across years, which is discussed in Chapter 4. 2.4.2 The effects of crop type (CROP) and land use history (LUH) The six experimental sites had similar year-to-year trends to the Ref site: the highest soil respiration in 2011, lowest R in 2012, and the rebound in 2013 and 2014. However, the different crops and land use histories induced different magnitudes of impacts and different recovery speeds of R. Comparing the inter-annual trend of Rs between the three cropping systems, the annual crop had relatively constant values from year to year while perennial crops increased chronologically. The 2014 Rs and Rh at CRP-Pr had even exceeded those in Ref, although there was no significant difference (Fig. 2.5 (A)). It implied that the extensive root system in CRP-Pr had become well-established and that the soil microbial community associated with the dense root systems had high heterotrophic respiration. In contrast to the CRP fields, the Rs and Rh in AGR-Pr fields did not quickly increase but always had similar values with AGR-Sw (Fig. 2.5 (B)). The results agree with my field observations that the AGR-Pr site changed its plant 63 composition and became more dominated by switchgrass after the dry year (Fig. 3.7; Abraha et al., 2016). The highly similar plant compositions between AGR-Pr and AGR-Sw had similar responses to annual climate regime and to severe drought. In 2011, most Rs and Rh rates were different between CRP and AGR. This should be the LUH effect from high carbon and nitrogen in the former CRP field soils, which stimulated the growth of plants and soil microbes. Most Rs and Rh were the same in 2012 due to the drought depression of plant and microbial activity. In 2013 and 2014, most corn and switchgrass lands had the similar Ra and Rh, but CRP-Pr had significantly higher Ra and Rh than AGR-Pr. The initial high soil carbon and nitrogen content may stimulate the establishment of root-microbe association underneath the multicultural prairie. 2.4.3 The root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration across years Other studies have estimated that the root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration ranges 10–90% in different ecosystems, but lower RC contributions are common in non-forest ecosystems. The mean annual RC of grassland and cropping ecosystems from 14 studies was 60.4% (Hanson et al., 2000). My annual growing-season RCs ranged from 0.31 to 0.57 (Table 2.1). The CRP-C had very low means and variations of RCs (0.31 ~ 0.33, Table 2.1 & Fig. 2.13) because high soil carbon and nitrogen content supported the high soil microbial activities, adding the low root respiration of annual crop. The RC values in CRP-C are in the range of maize fields in Hanson et al. (2000) review (0.35 ~ 0.40 in growing season). However, RC values in AGR-C are high (0.43 ~ 0.51). This may be due to the long-term (decades) cultivation that reduced soil fertility in the AGR field, which limited soil microbial activities and thus reduced Rh. The Ref site had high RC values with small within- and between-year variations implying a highly developed root system and a very stable carbon allocation to root and soil organic carbon pool. 64 The resistance of RC to severe drought is high. CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw had lower RC in 2012, revealing that the impact of drought on root was stronger than that on soil microbial community. My field observation, that most plants in CRP-Pr were withered in 2012 summer, which seemingly proves this. The dry year (2012) had lower RC with higher variation, implying that the 2012 springsummer drought depressed Ra more than Rh and the effect lasted until the second year (2013). The responses of RC in different crop types and land use histories were different: Ref and AGRPr fields were stable; CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw decreased significantly; CRP-Sw increased; CRP-C and AGR-C did not change or changed slightly. In current studies, RC may change seasonally or be stimulated by climate pulses (e.g., huge precipitation or temperature fluctuation) since Rh and Ra may respond to climate differently in timing and magnitude (Carbone et al., 2011; GomezCasanovas et al., 2012). I will discuss the seasonal changes of RC and examine how the seasonality of the responses of Ra and Rh affect the annual RC in Chapter 3. 2.4.4 The responses of Ra and Rh to future climate scenarios The trend of increasing air temperature (IPCC, 2013) and increasing extreme precipitation events (Andresen et al., 2012) were expected in the Midwestern USA in the future. Grassland and cropping ecosystems are sensitive to drought events and reduce both GPP and Reco in response (Hoover et al., 2014; Reichstein et al., 2013; Ciais et al., 2005; Baldocchi, 2008). In a grassland ecosystem, Rs is the second largest carbon process and can return 50-90% of annual GPP back to the atmosphere (Bahn et al., 2008). The relative strength of the reduction of GPP and Rs under drought stress may change a carbon sink to a carbon source or the amount of net CO2 it can sequestrate from the atmosphere (Nagy et al., 2007) depending on different responses of respiration and the assimilation. The two major components of soil respiration, Ra and Rh, thus 65 play crucial roles on the carbon dynamics of cropping and grassland ecosystems. The Ra and Rh have their own mechanisms and are controlled by different biophysical variables. Photosynthetic carbon supply is one of the crucial variables for both Ra and Rh. The changes of photosynthetic rates and the carbon allocation strategies responding to drought, therefore, affect Ra and Rh severely. Vegetation adapts to environment conditions by modifying its ecophysiological habits. Different crop types have their own strategies and capability to adapt to different magnitudes, durations and frequencies of drought under different environmental conditions (van der Molen et al., 2011). My study explains the different response of Ra and Rh in different CROP and LUH. The Ref field, the late successional grassland, always had high RC each of the four years during my study due to its highly developed root systems. The highly developed root system may connect root and soil microbial community tightly and thus the responses of Ra and Rh to severe drought were similar, resulting the constant RC even in the drought year. The RC in the AGR-Pr fields responded to the severe drought similar to Ref field. In CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw fields, RC decreased to adapt to drought and returned back to the initial values of 2011 soon after the drought year. The water stress of the 2012 drought year caused an early senescence of crops in mid-summer in the CRP-Pr. The AGR-Pr maintained the same RC in the drought year, but the composition of the C4 plant biomass increased after 2012 (Fig. 3.7; from Abraha et al., 2016). The changes of the composition of vegetation and the ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) in CRP-Sw, AGR-Pr and AGR-Sw fields revealed how the ecophysiological adaptated to severe drought. The increases of C3 vegetation composition can be expected if the occasional severe drought increases in the future. However, the mechanisms and the effect of the adaptation on the ecosystem carbon cycling and atmospheric CO2 dynamics require more research to explore. 66 2.5 CONCLUSIONS The regulatory roles of biophysical factors on soil respiration are complex. Their relationships are always non-linear, interconnected, and need to include the consideration of their threshold and relative strength of force. The dominant factor may change under different biomes and climate regimes. The adaptation of vegetation and soil microbial community increases the complexity of their responses to climate patterns and occasional climate events and human management. In this chapter, I found that soil respiration positively and exponentially correlated to both Ts and EVI. Soil moisture had weak or no correlation to soil respiration, but instead decoupled the R-Ts or R-EVI correlations when it was low. I also explored the different responses of Rs and Rh under different LUH and CROP after land use conversion at the interannual scale. The mature grassland ecosystem had high Ra and Rh and with high resistance to drought. The CRP-Pr field, which was a multicultural prairie with carbon and nitrogen enriched soil, established a root system 5 years after land use change, despite a severe drought in the third year, and had high Rs and Rh in 2014. Corn, a annual crop, had a lower RC comparing to perennial crops, implying the high importance of heterotrophic soil respiration response to climate change. I found evidence for the different effects of three forces on soil respiration: the particular year biophysical condition; the severe 2012 drought; and the land use conversion at different timescales. Particular year biophysical variables (annual temperature, water availability and vegetation index) support the potential values of soil respiration in each year. The severe drought in 2012 decreased both Ra and Rh in the same year but its effect prolonged to the following years. The effect of LUC was not very clear other than the CRP fields, which have high soil carbon and nitrogen content, had higher Ra and Rh than AGR fields. Perennial crops had increasing Rs and 67 Rh while annual did not, revealing the different capacity and ecophysiological adaptation between annual and perennial crops. The spring-summer severe drought in 2012 depressed Ra and Rh in all fields and induced different responses of Ra:Rs ratios. The RC values in most of fields were decreased or maintained in 2012 but returned to the levels in 2011 although most Rs and Ra were still lower than those in 2011. The changes of the C3:C4 ratio of vegetation biomass and eWUE revealed the ecophysiological adaptations expressed in vegetation to severe drought. It will happen more frequently if the amplitude and frequency of extreme drought events increase in the future. 68 APPENDIX 69 Table S.2.1. Monthly climate and microclimate. The monthly air temperature (Ta) and the monthly precipitation (PRCP) were calculated from daily mean air temperature and daily precipitation measured at the KBS LTER weather station. The monthly soil temperature (Ts), and the monthly soil volumetric water content (VWC) were measured biweekly (growing season) or monthly (nongrowing season) when soil respiration was measured. The values were mean ± standard deviation. The Ta, Ts, and VWC among four years were compared in a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). Different letters after the values denote significant (p < 0.05) differences among years by Tukey’s HSD (honest significant difference) test. The Ts and VWC for total soil respiration (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) experiments were measured and analyzed separately. R year Ta (⁰C) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Jan -6.3±3.6ac -1.6±4.8b -2.6±3.68ab -8.7±6.4c PRCP (mm) 2011 2012 2013 2014 19.2 68.3 178.8 73.1 Ts (⁰C) Rs Rh VWC (%) Rs Rh 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 Month Jun Jul 20.2±3.5a 24.1±2.5a 21.0±4.3a 25.3±2.9a 19.4±3.3a 21.7±3.9b 20.4±2.7a 19.2±2.4c Feb -3.5±5.77ab -0.4±3.04a -3.9±3.88b -8.0±5.02c Mar 1.0±4.0a 10.0±8.0b -0.6±3.9a -2.6±5.9a Apr 7.6±4.3a 8.8±3.4a 6.5±4.9a 8.1±4.4a May 15.1±5.0a 17.2±4.3a 16.7±5.3a 15.0±5.6a 75.7 52.3 107.4 60.5 66.8 78.0 29.5 52.1 146.0 109.0 170.4 67.3 142.4 30.2 118.6 80.5 47.5 22.9 107.9 148.1 10.6±1.9a 10.8±3.4a 15.3±3.4a 2.1±2.5 18.2±3.2b 11.8±3.1c 2.6±3.6 10.5±2.3a 11.3±4.4a 15.0±3.2a 21.0±3.0b 13.4±3.8c Aug 20.8±2.4a 20.7±3.0a 20.1±2.9a 20.3±2.1a Sep 15.6±4.8a 16.5±4.3a 16.7±4.6a 15.6±4.1a Oct 10.6±4.7a 9.8±5.0a 11.0±5.2a 9.9±3.9a Nov 6.2±4.2a 3.4±4.3ab 2.9±5.2ab 1.2±5.7b Dec 1.0±3.1a 1.4±4.6a -3.7±5.1b -0.1±4.1a 186.7 45.5 82.6 102.4 96.3 70.1 117.1 74.2 82.8 58.3 19.3 67.6 89.9 143.0 106.2 98.0 109.0 12.7 73.2 75.7 62.5 52.1 66.3 33.3 21.3±2.5ab 20.1±3.4a 22.0±2.6b 21.8±2.3b 27.5±1.4a 28.3±4.4a 21.6±2.5b 20.2±1.5c 22.0±2.4a 22.2±3.1a 23.2±2.2a 20.4±2.1b 14.7±1.9a 15.7±3.2a 18.5±1.8b 16.1±2.8a 11.8±1.0a 10.8±1.9b 17.3±2.3c 6.9±1.5a 3.7±1.4 21.3±2.4a 23.2±5.3b 24.8±3.3c 25.6±3.2c 29.3±2.3a 30.3±5.4a 25.1±4.0b 23.3±2.8c 23.5±2.7a 22.8±4.2a 25.7±2.3b 22.8±3.4a 15.3±2.5a 15.7±4.7a 19.4±2.0b 17.9±2.6c 12.0±1.7a 11.1±3.3a 18.8±2.3b 9.5±0.3b 7.1±2.3a 3.3±1.7 9.2±0.3b 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.57±5.14a 21.89±5.70a 28.71±5.74 20.96±4.11b 19.44±5.99b 24.14±5.50a 16.49±4.91a 8.20±4.53b 22.32±4.74c 21.02±5.66c 7.43±2.06a 18.77±5.14a 13.61±3.13a 23.11±4.20a 8.84±7.24a 15.90±6.43b 11.89±6.26a 21.27±4.38a 9.94±3.52a 16.57±5.24ab 12.45±3.83a 10.82±4.49b 15.18±6.80b 12.47±7.49c 23.59±6.23b 26.43±3.96a 31.29±5.14 2011 2012 2013 2014 23.22±5.33a 21.25±5.61a 27.12±6.26 18.59±3.87b 17.33±4.77b 20.91±4.98a 16.68±5.14a 10.84±3.85b 20.05±4.42c 20.74±4.43c 14.79±5.24a 10.19±5.65b 14.36±4.09a 15.23±5.23a 25.46±4.32a 30.19±5.11 70 20.68±5.05a 15.26±4.91b 18.45±4.64a 15.20±5.61b 19.00±4.91a 22.96±4.58a 13.04±4.17b 19.35±5.82b 16.31±4.18a 13.99±4.70c 22.28±5.15c 25.88±3.99a 23.59±3.77b Table S.2.2. The Pearson’s correlation between soil respiration (R or log10R) and its potential controls (Ts, VWC, NDVI and EVI). 2011 CROP LUH R C Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh CRP AGR Sw CRP AGR Pr CRP AGR Br CRP CROP LUH R C Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh Rs Rh CRP AGR Sw CRP AGR Pr CRP AGR Br CRP log R ~ Ts r p 0.83 2.22E-16 0.79 7.68E-14 0.68 9.64E-09 0.60 1.21E-06 0.73 3.16E-10 0.64 1.34E-07 0.64 5.81E-08 0.70 2.14E-09 0.65 3.99E-08 0.69 3.71E-09 0.80 7.59E-14 0.66 3.27E-08 0.77 7.27E-12 0.65 1.06E-07 log R ~ Ts r p 0.78 < 2.2E-16 0.78 < 2.2E-16 0.66 2.24E-13 0.64 2.08E-12 0.76 4.44E-16 0.78 < 2.2E-16 0.90 < 2.2E-16 0.84 < 2.2E-16 0.73 1.95E-14 0.80 < 2.2E-16 0.89 < 2.2E-16 0.84 < 2.2E-16 0.60 3.22E-09 0.71 2.03E-13 R ~ VWC r p -0.42 9.46E-04 -0.25 5.71E-02 -0.29 3.37E-02 0.04 7.94E-01 -0.37 4.35E-03 -0.28 3.40E-02 -0.28 3.03E-02 -0.31 1.79E-02 -0.33 1.18E-02 -0.43 5.79E-04 -0.32 1.27E-02 -0.31 1.59E-02 -0.35 6.06E-03 -0.57 3.11E-06 2013 R ~ VWC r p -0.09 3.36E-01 -0.16 9.99E-02 0.07 4.86E-01 0.01 9.08E-01 0.07 5.02E-01 -0.10 2.92E-01 -0.18 7.02E-02 -0.27 5.10E-03 -0.05 6.40E-01 -0.04 6.86E-01 -0.22 2.19E-02 -0.05 6.25E-01 -0.24 1.44E-02 -0.05 6.31E-01 log R ~ NDVI r p 0.67 7.09E-09 0.70 8.52E-10 0.53 3.57E-05 0.07 6.15E-01 0.63 9.91E-08 0.52 2.27E-05 0.62 1.66E-07 0.48 1.16E-04 0.47 2.02E-04 0.40 1.78E-03 0.68 3.96E-09 0.49 7.20E-05 0.63 7.13E-08 0.67 8.47E-09 log R ~ NDVI r p 0.38 2.09E-04 0.35 9.45E-04 0.44 7.57E-06 0.33 1.12E-03 0.69 2.09E-12 0.72 3.75E-14 0.50 7.91E-07 0.54 9.07E-08 0.69 1.43E-12 0.78 < 2.2Ee-16 0.64 2.55E-11 0.62 1.80E-10 0.60 2.37E-09 0.71 1.17E-13 log R ~ EVI r p 0.75 9.92E-12 0.77 1.81E-12 0.57 4.74E-06 0.14 3.25E-01 0.59 7.12E-07 0.51 3.44E-05 0.59 9.23E-07 0.43 7.79E-04 0.42 9.54E-04 0.40 1.51E-03 0.72 1.15E-10 0.47 1.80E-04 0.62 1.55E-07 0.75 8.89E-12 log R ~ EVI r p 0.56 8.31E-09 0.51 5.52E-07 0.57 1.73E-09 0.43 8.81E-06 0.74 2.89E-15 0.72 6.80E-14 0.55 2.2E-08 0.55 3.98E-08 0.74 4.22E-15 0.78 < 2.2e-16 0.65 1.16E-11 0.62 1.66E-10 0.69 6.97E-13 0.77 < 2.2e-16 log R ~ Ts r p 0.71 1.02E-14 0.80 < 2.2E-16 0.72 2.40E-14 0.72 4.89E-15 0.50 3.66E-06 0.67 1.25E-12 0.73 1.33E-15 0.79 < 2.2e-16 0.58 2.38E-09 0.60 9.70E-10 0.80 < 2.2E-16 0.82 < 2.2E-16 0.61 2.01E-09 0.71 6.44E-15 log R ~ Ts r p 0.72 1.67E-12 0.63 3.43E-09 0.70 1.01E-11 0.48 1.77E-05 0.73 3.09E-13 0.54 8.68E-07 0.72 6.61E-13 0.82 < 2.2E-16 0.78 4.44E-16 0.80 < 2.2E-16 0.79 2.22E-16 0.47 2.69E-05 0.53 1.49E-06 0.69 1.40E-11 2012 R ~ VWC log R ~ NDVI r p r p -0.24 2.25E-02 0.73 4.44E-16 -0.23 2.89E-02 0.72 1.78E-15 -0.24 3.10E-02 0.72 1.02E-14 -0.35 8.16E-04 0.70 3.73E-14 -0.42 1.17E-04 0.81 < 2.2E-16 -0.40 1.18E-04 0.67 1.86E-12 -0.39 1.66E-04 0.75 < 2.2E-16 -0.58 2.27E-09 0.78 < 2.2E-16 -0.20 5.98E-02 0.75 < 2.2E-16 -0.40 1.22E-04 0.74 4.44E-16 -0.54 7.26E-08 0.72 7.11E-15 -0.63 7.34E-11 0.76 < 2.2E-16 -0.37 6.42E-04 0.55 1.52E-07 -0.48 1.92E-06 0.44 1.49E-05 2014 R ~ VWC log R ~ NDVI r p r p -0.14 2.39E-01 0.33 4.31E-03 -0.02 8.95E-01 0.39 6.35E-04 -0.01 9.56E-01 0.64 1.48E-09 -0.03 8.10E-01 0.47 3.01E-05 -0.48 2.10E-05 0.72 1.15E-12 -0.08 4.81E-01 0.51 4.63E-06 -0.36 1.77E-03 0.60 3.19E-08 -0.35 2.90E-03 0.65 5.22E-10 -0.22 5.86E-02 0.79 4.44E-16 -0.14 2.40E-01 0.71 1.76E-12 -0.28 1.73E-02 0.70 7.65E-12 -0.01 9.05E-01 0.56 3.28E-07 -0.07 5.64E-01 0.65 5.90E-10 0.05 6.71E-01 0.75 3.29E-14 * CROP (crop type): C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie mixture; Br: brome grass in reference * LUH (land use history): CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn-soybean rotation conventional agriculture * R (soil respiration): Rs: total soil respiration; Rh: heterotrophic soil respiration * r: Pearson’s correlation; p: p-value 71 log R ~ EVI r p 0.73 4.44E-16 0.66 1.74E-12 0.73 5.33E-15 0.70 5.82E-14 0.68 1.62E-11 0.56 2.17E-08 0.65 1.15E-11 0.71 2.18E-14 0.60 4.46E-10 0.56 1.19E-08 0.71 3.40E-14 0.70 9.77E-14 0.56 7.53E-08 0.34 1.02E-03 log R ~ EVI r p 0.46 5.01E-05 0.33 5.27E-03 0.64 2.06E-09 0.35 2.75E-03 0.65 6.10E-10 0.50 9.73E-06 0.57 1.61E-07 0.65 7.57E-10 0.67 9.31E-11 0.65 8.55E-10 0.76 1.78E-14 0.54 8.63E-07 0.64 1.37E-09 0.66 3.15E-10 Table S.2.3. The exponential model of total soil respiration (Rs)/heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) and soil temperature (Ts) and the temperature sensitivity (Q10) during 2011 and 2014. The soil coefficients a and b were calculated from the equation: R = a * ebTs, temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (Q10) were calculated by e10b. 2011 CROP C LUH R CRP AGR a b 2012 Q10 r2 n p a b Q10 r2 n p Rs 0.73±1.67 0.04±0.03 1.57±1.35 0.69 59 2.73E-16 0.74±1.76 0.03±0.03 1.34±1.34 0.51 88 1.03E-14 Rh 0.75±1.72 0.04±0.03 1.46±1.34 0.63 59 7.67E-14 0.59±1.83 0.04±0.03 1.46±1.34 0.64 88 <2E-16 Rs 0.72±2.14 0.04±0.04 1.45±1.50 0.47 55 9.64E-09 1.48±2.51 0.04±0.04 1.49±1.54 0.46 88 3.83E-13 Rh 0.70±2.05 0.03±0.04 1.31±1.45 0.36 55 1.21E-06 0.40±2.32 0.04±0.04 1.48±1.46 0.52 88 2.28E-15 Rs 1.13±1.67 0.03±0.03 1.36±1.35 0.53 59 3.16E-10 1.04±2.01 0.02±0.03 1.20±1.40 0.25 88 3.55E-06 Rh 1.05±1.92 0.03±0.04 1.34±1.45 0.41 59 1.34E-07 0.63±2.13 0.03±0.03 1.35±1.40 0.45 88 1.25E-12 Rs 0.84±2.14 0.03±0.04 1.41±1.53 0.41 59 5.80E-05 0.56±2.45 0.05±0.04 1.58±1.55 0.53 88 1.45E--15 Rh 0.63±2.24 0.04±0.04 1.51±1.56 0.47 59 3.16E-09 0.44±2.25 0.05±0.04 1.59±1.44 0.63 88 <2E-16 Rs 1.10±1.92 0.03±0.04 1.38±1.48 0.42 59 3.99E-08 0.84±2.31 0.03±0.05 1.39±1.59 0.34 88 2.38E-09 Rh 0.97±1.97 0.04±0.04 1.42±1.47 0.47 59 3.71E-09 0.73±2.13 0.03±0.04 1.31±1.44 0.36 88 9.70E-10 Rs 0.82±1.74 0.04±0.03 1.51±1.37 0.65 59 7.59E-14 0.62±1.98 0.05±0.03 1.59±1.42 0.65 85 <2E-16 Rh 0.68±2.39 0.04±0.05 1.52±1.64 0.43 59 3.27E-08 0.43±2.02 0.05±0.03 1.58±1.38 0.68 85 <2E-16 Rs 1.18±1.62 0.04±0.03 1.43±1.37 0.59 59 7.27E-12 1.03±2.10 0.03±0.03 1.42±1.62 0.37 88 2.01E-09 (Ref) Rh 0.62±2.18 0.05±0.05 1.60±1.60 0.51 88 2014 6.43E-15 CROP LUH R Sw CRP AGR Pr CRP AGR Br C CRP CRP AGR Sw CRP AGR Pr CRP AGR Br (Ref) CRP 1.06±1.9 0.03±0.04 1.38±1.49 2013 0.42 59 1.06E-07 a b Q10 r2 n p Rs 0.55±2.38 0.05±0.04 1.65±1.55 0.58 107 <2E-16 0.83±1.90 0.03±0.03 1.40±1.40 0.51 72 1.67E-12 Rh 0.56±3.46 0.03±0.06 1.40±1.75 0.27 106 1.01E-08 0.72±2.37 0.03±0.04 1.38±1.49 0.39 72 3.43E-09 Rs 0.79±2.39 0.03±0.04 1.30±1.52 0.29 112 1.21E-09 0.80±1.94 0.03±0.03 1.38±1.40 0.49 72 1.01E-11 Rh 0.43±3.24 0.04±0.05 1.44±1.68 0.33 113 2.29E-11 0.71±2.72 0.02±0.04 1.27±1.55 0.23 72 1.77E-05 Rs 0.61±2.89 0.06±0.06 1.81±1.86 0.48 104 2.56E-16 0.67±2.69 0.06±0.06 1.81±1.75 0.53 72 3.09E-13 Rh 0.44±2.45 0.06±0.05 1.74±1.62 0.57 104 <2E-16 0.88±2.26 0.03±0.04 1.31±1.53 0.29 72 8.68E-07 6.61E-13 a b Q10 r2 n p Rs 0.71±2.16 0.04±0.04 1.55±1.51 0.54 104 <2E-16 0.71±2.48 0.05±0.05 162±1.60 0.52 72 Rh 0.38±2.52 0.06±0.05 1.77±1.58 0.62 105 <2E-16 0.47±2.27 0.05±0.04 1.71±1.47 0.66 72 < 2.2E-16 Rs 0.57±2.67 0.06±0.05 1.86±1.71 0.58 104 <2E-16 1.03±1.85 0.04±0.03 1.51±1.40 0.61 72 Rh 0.43±2.16 0.06±0.04 1.76±1.44 0.71 104 <2E-16 0.74±1.87 0.04±0.03 1.47±1.33 0.65 72 < 2.2E-16 Rs 0.562.17 5.72E-16 0.05±0.04 1.72±1.50 0.64 104 <2E-16 0.77±2.10 0.05±0.04 1.63±1.47 0.62 72 < 2.2E-16 Rh 0.37±1.86 0.05±0.03 1.72±1.34 0.78 106 <2E-16 0.86±2.65 0.02±0.04 1.26±1.55 0.22 72 2.69E-05 Rs 0.75±2.32 0.06±0.05 1.76±1.66 0.56 107 <2E-16 1.29±2.14 0.03±0.04 1.31±1.55 0.28 72 1.49E-06 Rh 0.47±2.20 0.05±0.04 1.67±1.47 0.65 104 <2E-16 0.71±2.32 0.04±0.04 1.45±1.48 0.48 72 1.40E-11 * CROP (crop type): C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie mixture; Br: brome grass in CRP reference site. * LUH (land use history): CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn-soybean rotation conventional agriculture. * R (soil respiration): Rs: total soil respiration; Rh: heterotrophic soil respiration 72 Table S.2.4. The two-level interactive TWV models for Rs and Rh. The parameters of the two-level interaction multiple variable soil respiration regression models (TWE models) from soil temperature (Ts), soil water content (VWC), enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and the research sites with different land use histories and crop types. The function is: logR = a + b*Ts + c*logVWC + d*EVI+ e1*(AGR-Pr) + e2*(AGR-Sw) + e3*(CRP-C) + e4*(CRP-Pr) + e5*(CRP-Ref) + e6*(CRPSw) + f*(Ts:logVWC) + g*(Ts:EVI) + h*(logVWC:EVI) + i1*(Ts:AGR-Pr) + i2*(Ts:AGR-Sw) + i3*(Ts:CRP-C) + i4*(Ts:CRP-Pr) + i5*(Ts:CRP-Ref) + i6*(Ts:CRP-Sw) + j1*(logVWC:AGR-Pr) + j2*(logVWC:AGR-Sw) + j3*(logVWC:CRP-C) + j4*(logVWC:CRPPr) + j5*(logVWC:CRP-Ref) + j6*(logVWC:CRP-Sw) + k1*(EVI:AGR-Pr) + k2*(EVI:AGR-Sw) + k3*(EVI:CRP-C) + k4*(EVI:CRP-Pr) + k5*(EVI:CRP-Ref) + k6*(EVI:CRP-Sw). The blank cells were the terms removed from best-fit model via AIC. The Rs and Rh models were established separately. Both use actual data in 2011-2014. a b c d e1 e2 e3 e4 e5 e6 f Rs -2.137 0.045 0.609 4.658 0.446 0.223 0.390 0.307 0.990 0.576 0.017 -0.110 -1.154 Rh -1.085 0.037 -0.150 1.913 0.116 0.595 0.061 0.342 0.369 -0.077 0.024 -0.095 j1 j2 j3 j4 j5 j6 k1 k2 k3 k4 k5 k6 Rs -0.226 -0.106 -0.166 -0.003 -0.304 -0.193 -0.391 -0.378 -0.391 -0.425 -0.727 -0.705 Rh -0.110 -0.569 -0.052 -0.215 -0.172 0.193 0.585 0.842 0.649 0.816 0.598 0.359 73 g h i1 i2 i3 i4 i5 i6 0.012 0.013 0.005 0.014 0.007 0.013 Table S.2.5. The effects of CROP and LUH on total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). (A) Effect of crop type (CROP and land use history (LUH) and their interaction on total soil respiration (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). The p-value was calculated from the two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) by R language for each year. (B) Pair comparisons between different CROP (C: corn, Sw: switch grass, Pr: prairie mixture and ref: brome grass in reference site) and different LUH (CRP: Conservation Reserve Program, AGR: corn-soybean rotation agriculture and Ref: reference). The p-value from Tukey HSD post-hoc test represented the difference of Rs (right-up corner of table) and Rh (left-down corner of table) between different crop types and between different LUHs. (A) Rs CROP LUH 2011 1.93e-08 *** 3.74e-10 *** 2012 1.99e-13 *** 0.00693 ** 2013 <2e-16 *** 4.77e-07 *** 2014 <2e-16 *** 1.34e-05 *** Rh CROP LUH 6.6e-09 *** <2e-16 *** 9.94e-10 *** 0.00795 ** 2.11e-14 *** 2.48e-06 *** 1.28e-06 *** 5.67e-05 *** ***: p-value < 0.001; **: 0.001 < p < 0.01; *: 0.01 < p < 0.05; . : 0.05 < p < 0.1 (B) CROP year effect 2011 Rh Rs C Sw Pr Ref C 0.2111714 0.0092386*** 0*** Sw 0.0383932* 0.6094264 0.0000172*** Pr 0.0000677*** 0.2911074 0.0010832*** Ref 0*** 0.0000297*** 0.0072699*** 2012 2013 2014 LUH Rh Rs CRP AGR Ref CRP 0*** 0.0131907* AGR Ref 0.0081931** 0.0000962*** 0*** 0*** CROP Rh Rs C Sw Pr Ref C 0.0019099** 0.0000154*** 0*** Sw 0.4263716 0.8407322 0.0000026*** Pr 0.4261766 1 0.0002107*** Ref 0.0028281*** 0.1072257 0.1072911 LUH Rh Rs CRP AGR Ref CROP Rh Rs C Sw C 0.0000006*** Sw 0.0286266* Pr 0.0000187*** 0.2306837 Ref 0.0000105*** 0.0484249* LUH Rh Rs CRP AGR Ref CRP 0.0000011*** 0.0001504*** AGR 0.0002140*** 0*** Ref 0.2538962 0.000214*** CROP Rh Rs C C Sw 0.0566624. Pr 0.0001247*** Ref 0.000114*** Sw 0*** 0.292746 0.1214564 Pr 0*** 0.8765797 Ref 0*** 0.0000859*** 0.0010844** CRP 0.7236371 0.0285623* AGR 0.4526613 Ref 0.0000001*** 0*** 0.0057242** 0.7113536 Pr Ref 0*** 0*** 0.0000812*** 0.0023843** 0.9999831 0.8778098 LUH Rh Rs CRP AGR Ref CRP 0.0043459** 0.0141944* AGR 0.0011549*** 0.0000017*** Ref 0.421979 0.0005237*** ***: p-value < 0.001; **: 0.001 < p < 0.01; *: 0.01 < p < 0.05; . : 0.05 < p < 0.1 74 LITERATURE CITED 75 LITERATURE CITED Abraha, M., Gelfand, I., Hamilton, S.K., Shao, C., Su, Y.J., Robertson, G.P., Chen, J., 2016. Ecosystem water-use efficiency of annual corn and perennial grasslands: contributions from land-use history and species composition. Ecosystems, 19, 1001-1012. Andresen, J., S. Hilberg, K. Kunkel, 2012. Historical climate and climate trends in the Midwestern USA. In: U.S. National Climate Assessment Midwest Technical Input Report. J. Winkler, J. Andresen, J. Hatfield, D. Bidwell, and D. Brown, coordinators. 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International Journal of Remote Sensing, 26, 4485-4498. van der Molen, M.K., Dolman, A.J., Ciais, P., Eglin, T., Gobron, N., Law, B.E., Meir, P., Peters, W., Phillips, O.L., Reich- stein, M., Chen, T., Dekker, S.C., Doubková, M., Friedl, M.A., Jung, M., van den Hurk, B.J.J.M., de Jeu, R.A.M., Kruijt, B., Ohta, T., Rebel, K.T., Plummer, S., Seneviratne, S.I., Sitch, S., Teuling, A.J., van der Werf, G.R., and Wang, G., 2011. Drought and ecosystem carbon cycling. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 765-773. van’t Hoff, J. H., 1884. Études de Dynamique Chimique (Studies of Chemical Dynamics). Frederik Muller and Co., Amsterdam, the Netherlands. 78 CHAPTER 3 SEASONAL PATTERNS OF SOIL RESPIRATION AND ITS RESPONSE TO MICROCLIMATE ABSTRACT Water deficits vary in timing, duration and magnitude, and may affect plant growth and soil microbial activities differently. A short-term, normal seasonal water deficit and a long-term, occasional drought may bring very different consequences to ecosystems. For example, a midsummer short-term (days to weeks) drought is common in humid ecosystems during the growing season, and affects the soil respiration during the dry period. In the experimental treatments studied here, soil respiration decreased when water deficit occurred, but recovered soon after once rainfall had replenished the soil water. Many cropping systems had the highest soil respiration peak in August following the drought in each year. I observed that a short-term water deficit decoupled the R-Ts relationship, which quickly recovered and possibly altered the annual soil carbon efflux depending on the timing of summer drought. In contrast to the short-term drought, the 2012 May-July long-term (months) drought, the abnormally warm March, and the consequent early onset of the growing season, depleted available soil water in June and induced the obvious decrease of vegetation indices and lowered soil respiration for the whole growing season. The result of that spring-summer 2012 drought was the extremely low Ra in the CRP-Pr, CRP-Sw and AGR-Sw fields and very low Rh in CRP-Sw. The dramatic decrease of Ra when VWC was low suggests that root respiration diminished greatly. The change of C3:C4 biomass composition and ecosystem water-use efficiency implies that the community structure and the carbon- and water-related ecological processes had altered to adapt to the drought. I concluded that the occasional long-term spring-summer drought had very different effects on soil respiration compared to the normal short-term summer dry period. The spring- 79 summer drought impacted the soil respiration through the whole growing season and may have extended to the subsequent years. In the prairie and switchgrass treatments, the decreased soil respiration in subsequent years may reflect the shift of plant species composition toward greater dominance by C4 grasses, which may be better adapted to drought disturbance. However, we need more research to understand how these systems respond to climate variability. 3.1 INTRODUCTION Soil respiration, as one of the largest fluxes of carbon between ecosystems and the atmosphere, is important for the atmospheric carbon budget and represents a major feedback mechanism that may affect future climate changes (Goulden et al., 1996; Post et al., 1982; Raich et al., 2002; Raich & Schlesinger, 1992; Ryan & Law, 2005; Schlesinger & Andrews, 2000). The strong seasonality of soil respiration based on the intra-annual variations of soil temperature, soil moisture and plant productivity has been widely reported (Luo and Zhou, 2006; Tang and Baldocchi, 2005). However, the components of soil respiration, including autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh), have different mechanisms and feedbacks in response to climate and human management. The net balance of carbon is determined by the sum of the processes of Ra and Rh and the drivers that affect them. Thus, the partitioning of soil respiration becomes essential for explaining the behavior of soil respiration and its effects on soil carbon pools. Autotrophic respiration includes respiration from roots and rhizosphere microbes that generally respire photosynthetically produced organic carbon after a short lag time after photosynthesis. In some climate regimes and biomes, Ra may be more strongly related to daytime net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 rather than temperature. The lags of carbon allocation from photosynthesis in leaves to root respiration was only 4-6 days (Gomez- 80 Casanovas et al., 2012). Heterotrophic soil respiration is due to the free-living soil microbial community and is known to be controlled by soil temperature, soil moisture and daytime NEE. The major carbon source to support Rh is from photosynthesis but it may be delayed 36-42 days from photosynthesis (Gomez-Casanovas et al., 2012). Climate dynamics or disturbance may impact Ra and Rh at different times intra-annually due to their distinct magnitude, the length of lags –the legacy effects. Many studies have partitioned soil respiration into these two components to understand the relative contribution of them in different ecosystems across climate regimes with diverse results. However, studies focusing on grassland and cropping systems are very limited, especially for those with history of land use conversion. My study is important because of the increased land use conversion from grassland and other land use types to bioenergy crops in the past decade (Lark et al., 2015) and the prospect for more conversion in the future. Understanding the responses of biofuel cropping systems to climate regimes and events in the Midwest US will help us evaluate the contribution of biofuel crops to net carbon balances in the US. In Chapter 2, I explored how autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) responds to climate variability, including a severe drought at inter-annual scales. However, the timing of drought events within a growing season can alter the annual soil respiration if they depress the growth and development of plants in certain phenological stages (Curiel Yuste et al., 2004; Hanson et al., 2000) and can have a crucial effect on soil carbon efflux. For example, Savage and Davidson (2001) suggested that the spring and summer droughts and the advanced onset of spring had a stronger impact on annual soil respiration than those that happened during the later growing season. In this chapter, I explored the effect of that seasonality of biophysical variables have on the seasonal patterns of Ra and Rh. I hypothesized that soil temperature and the 81 photosynthesis-derived carbon control Ra and Rh during most of the growing season, while low soil water in dry periods diminished soil respiration—even if Ta and EVI are high. I also examined the seasonal variations of root contribution to soil respiration (RC) in each year under different climate patterns. I hypothesized that the normal climate regime drives the seasonal patterns of soil respiration within most years, while a severe drought disturbance may change ecosystem properties and the biogeochemical processes (i.e., soil respiration), as well as impact the ecosystem well after the drought ends. 3.2 METHODS 3.2.1 Study area My experimental sites are located at the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center scale-up fields of the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS, 42°40’N, 85°40’W), established in association with the KBS Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. The sites are located in the southwest of Michigan, USA (Fig. 1.2.). The climate is humid continental (warm summer) climate (Dfa) (Peel et al., 2007). The mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation at KBS are 10.1 °C and 1005 mm yr-1 (1981-2010), respectively (Robertson & Hamilton, 2015). 3.2.2 Experimental design and schedule Seven experimental plots were chosen at two locations, each with its own land use history (LUH): (1) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands at Marshall Farm, and (2) corn-soybean rotation agricultural fields (AGR) at Lux Arbor Reserve. The CRP sites have been in a monoculture of smooth brome grass (Bromus inermis Leyss) since 1987, while the AGR fields have been under a conventional corn-soybean rotation cultivation for several decades (Fig. 1.6). The soil texture at all sites is sandy loam, except for a sandy clay loam at one field. 82 However, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at the CRP sites were significantly higher than those at the AGR sites before land conversion (Table 1.1). The experiment was conducted at seven scale-up fields ranging from 9 to 17 hectares. Four fields are located in Marshall Farm (i.e., CRP sites) and three in Lux Arbor Reserve (i.e., AGR sites). All sites, except the reference site (Ref), were sprayed with herbicide at the end of 2008 to prepare the lands for soybean planting in 2009. The CRP and AGR sites have been cultivated since 2010 with either continuous corn (Zea mays, Dekalb DK-52), switchgrass (Panicum virgatum), or a mixture of native prairie grasses, which include: Canada wild rye (Elymus Canadensis), little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum). One CRP grassland, which is dominated by brome grass, has not been disturbed, but instead retained as a reference site (Ref) (Gelfand et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2011; Deal et al., 2013; Zenone et al., 2013). I used an experimental code for these sites by abbreviating them as “LUH-CROP”. CRPC, CRP-Sw and CRP-Pr represent the CRP sites that were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture respectively, while AGR-C, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr are AGR farms converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture, respectively. In 2010 when the crops were established, the perennial crops switchgrass and prairie were accompanied by oats as a nurse crop, with and without fertilization, respectively (Fig. 1.6). No other management practices were applied beyond harvesting at the end of each growing season. No-till continuous corn was seeded in midMay with a one-time herbicide mix (Lumax, Atrazine 4L, Honcho Plus and (NH4)2SO4). Phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen fertilizers were applied during April and June each year (Zenone et al., 2013). 83 3.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification The climate, such as air temperature (Ta) and daily precipitation (PRCP), and microclimate, such as soil temperature and soil water content, were recorded as independent variables. They were recorded at different spatial and temporal scales based on the requirement of research and the limitation of equipment and labor. The daily mean Ta and daily accumulative PRCP were collected and calculated from the KBS LTER Weather station (42°24’47.1” N, 85°22’15.3” W; lter.kbs.msu.edu). Air temperature was recorded hourly by a thermometer at 3 m height and mean daily air temperature was calculated from the hourly data. Precipitation was measured by a NOAH IV total precipitation gauge (ETi Instrument Systems Inc., Fort Collins, CO). Soil temperature (Ts) and volumetric soil water content (VWC) were measured simultaneously with biweekly soil respiration rate measurements late April to September and, during other times, monthly. Soil temperature was measured at 10 cm depth using a Taylor 8940N digital thermometer (Taylor Precision Products, Las Cruces, NM, USA) while VWC was monitored from the ground surface to 10 cm depth by a HydroSense II with a CS659 sensor (Campbell Scientific, Inc. (CSI), Logan, UT). The length of the growing season is an important index for climate change and agriculture. There are several identifications based on climate and crop growth. Here, I use the temperature-based identification, which is the most commonly used in North America (a.k.a. frost-free season), instead of the crop-based growing season since soil respiration includes the soil microbe-derived carbon efflux—not only plant-derived soil carbon efflux. The onset and the end of the climatic growing season (GS) each year was calculated based on the nine-day moving average of daily mean air temperature (9d-Ta). This filters out short-term warm or cold events 84 that may not induce the start of plant growth and development in spring. The onset of the GS was identified as the first day exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in spring while the end of the GS was recognized as the last day exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in fall. The length of the GS ranges between the onset and the end of the GS in each year. To compare soil respiration rates, climate and microclimate, and the vegetation indices, I separated the data into different years based on the USGS “water year” concept. I began my yearly analysis with October 1st and ended at September 30th, as this method is more meaningful for agriculture research. I identified the water year in my dissertation as the end of the previous GS until the end of the current GS, as post-GS precipitation may subsidize soil water pools and support the plants and soil microbes consumption in the next GS. The length of the water year may be different due to the different seasonal patterns of air temperature in fall and winter. 3.2.4 Total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements Four plots at each site were randomly selected to install 1x1 m root exclusion plots for measuring heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). We dug a 1 m deep trench around the edges of each square (Fig. 2.1 (B)). The trenches were lined with root-barrier sheets before refilling the soil according to its original soil profile (Fig. 2.1 (C); Tang et al., 2005). The plants and roots inside the square were manually removed and/or killed by herbicide (Monsanto Roundup®). Two 10 cm inner diameter PVC collars were installed inside the square to accommodate flux chambers to measure Rh. Another two collars were installed surrounding the square to measure total soil respiration (Rs) (Fig. 2.1(D)). A total of 112 measurements (including Rh and Rs) were taken between 10 am and 7 pm when soil respiration is at diel maximum. Soil respiration was measured biweekly during the growing season and monthly during the non-growing season to allow the measurements when snow cover is minimal (from October 85 to December). The chamber-based infrared gas analyzer (IRGA) approach for soil respiration measurement used an LI-6400 portable photosynthesis system with a 10 cm diameter 6400-09 soil chamber or an LI-8100 with a 10 cm diameter 8100-102 soil chamber (LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, NE). 3.2.5 Vegetation index data Vegetation indices, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were calculated based on satellite remote sensing using band 1 (nir), band 2 (red), and band 3 (blue) of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The NDVI was determined by the ratio of the difference between near-infrared reflectance and red reflectance to their sum (Tucker et al., 2005), while EVI was further modified with soil adjustment factor L and two atmospheric aerosol scattering coefficients C1 and C2 (Huete et al., 1999). The EVI has a higher sensitivity at the “green” portion of the spectrum when vegetation is very dense. These data were developed from MODIS daily products by selecting the optimal day from each 16-day interval (i.e., low cloud cover). Missing data may appear when clouds obscured the site over an entire 16-day period. The NDVI and EVI data were downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.shtml). I used a single pixel from the MODIS image for each site with a spatial resolution of 250 m. The dates of NDVI and EVI values were paired with the nearest dates of soil respiration measurement. 86 3.2.6 The temperature-water-vegetation (TWV) models Multiple factor models containing the effects of Ts, VWC, EVI and their interactions were developed and tested. The experiment treatments (seven sites: 2 LUH * 3 CROP + Ref) were set as a categorical factor and the following function was tested: 𝑅 = 𝑓(𝑇𝑠 ) ∙ 𝑔(𝑉𝑊𝐶) ∙ ℎ(𝐸𝑉𝐼) ∙ 𝑖(𝐶𝑅𝑂𝑃, 𝐿𝑈𝐻) Eq. 2-1 where R is total (Rs) or heterotrophic (Rh) soil respiration, and f(Ts), g(VWC) and h(EVI) are the effects of soil temperature, soil moisture and vegetation condition on R, respectively. The functions of f(Ts), g(VWC) and h(EVI) were assumed as log-linear, quadratic, or linear based on observed relationships between R and Ts, VWC, and EVI, from previously published research, and the best correlations between R-Ts, R-VWC and R-EVI. The equations containing two-level interactions and the variables themselves were tested. The final models would include the equation with first and secondary orders in terms (Supplement 2-4). The variables and their parameters were modeled by actual data. The best models for Rs and Rh were independently selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). 3.2.7 Seasonality of root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration The Ra, Rh and Rs data were calculated based on the TWV models (Supplement 2-4) and the equation (5) in Hanson et al. (2000). The root contribution (RC) of total soil respiration was calculated based on the Hanson et al. (2000) equation (6). The RCs were plotted against DOY and compared between different treatments. 87 3.3 RESULTS 3.3.1 Temporal variations of biophysical factors 3.3.1.1 Climate and microclimate As mentioned in Chapter 2, the growing season (GS), defined by the non-frost season described in Chapter 2, lasts from late-March to late November or early December in 2011, 2013 and 2014. However, it warmed up early in March 2012 and the onset of the GS advanced (Fig. 2.2). After the onset of the growing season, the temperature gradually increased until its peak in July and then decreased until the end of the GS (Fig. 2.2). The maximum daily mean air temperatures were 29.88, 30.67 and 29.25 °C in 2011, 2012 and 2013, respectively, whereas it was only 24.39°C in 2014 (data not shown). The length of the GS, highest temperature and hottest date differed across years. The GS in 2012 started very early (DOY=57) and finished late (DOY=356). The length of the GS in 2012 lasted almost 300 days with high degree-day (data not shown). The growing seasons in other years started from late March (DOY=57~90) and finished in mid-November to early December (DOY=318~341). Two of the years (2013 and 2014) had lower July temperatures (Fig. 2.2, Table S.2.1) and lower degree-days than in 2011 and 2012 (data not shown). In my sites, precipitation was distributed evenly through the whole year although there were occasional very large rain events. However, VWC revealed distinct seasonal patterns in the GS. The pre-season (October-April) recharged the soil water with precipitation, which kept soil moisture high throughout winter and early spring. The VWC started to decline after the increase of temperature and crop growth, sometimes also because of the lack of rainfall. The timing, 88 duration and magnitude of low VWC periods varied inter-annually. For example, the major low VWC occurred during 3 June and 19 July in 2011, while in 2012 it was 6 June to 30 July in 2012. In 2013 and 2014, these were shortened and delayed and lasted only during 13-25 July and 26 July–16 August, respectively (Fig. 3.1 (B)). The most severe water deficit always happened at the end of the dry period, around late July in 2011-2013 and early August in 2014. In 2013 and 2014, large amounts of spring rainfall replenished soil water pools and delayed, shortened and weakened the water deficit (Fig. 3.1 (B), Table S.2.1). A second low VWC period happened at the end of the GS (late August to late September) when rainfall was low. However, that may not be important for the growth of plants. When comparing the climate patterns across years, 2012 was an outlier. First, the months of February and March in 2012 had a mean Ta that was significantly higher than the other years. Historically, the March mean Ta tends to be close to or below 0°C. However, in March 2012 the mean Ta was 9.96°C while those in other years it ranged between 0.96 and -2.57°C (Table S.2.1). The nine-day moving average of daily mean air temperature (9d-Ta) revealed the early onset of warmth in the 2012 GS (Fig. 2.1). The onset of the GS based on the 9d-Ta was very early (25 February) in 2012 but later in 2011, 2013 and 2014, falling on 30, 26, and 28 March, respectively. Secondly, the low May-August precipitation in 2012 induced the low springsummer VWC, which greatly impacted the growth of both annual and perennial crops. The cumulative precipitation from May-July was 377, 99, 309 and 331 mm from 2011 to 2014, respectively. The 2012 precipitation was less than one third of other years. Thus, the VWC in June was significantly lower than in the other years (Supplement 2-1). Third, the maximum air (Ta) and soil temperatures (Ts) were higher in 2012 than those in the other years. In contrast, the 89 coolest summer was in 2014 (Fig. 2.2). In addition, the variations of growing season Ts among the research sites in 2012 were higher than other years, especial in July (Fig. 2.2 (A)). The low rainfall in 2012 induced a severe water deficit in summer and VWC was very low at all sites. However, the perennial crops in CRP sites (CRP-Sw, CRP-Pr and Ref) experienced the most acute drought, as their June VWC levels dropped to near zero. Surface soil in AGR perennial crop sites reached around 5% VWC, while the two corn sites fell to around 10% VWC (Fig. 3.1 (B)). The differences of VWC may be due to site-to-site variability or the phenology of crops. 90 (A) 2011 2012 3 3 0 0 2013 3 0 2014 3 0 30 3 0 2 0 2 2 0 0 2 0 2 0 20 10 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 − 1 − 0 1 0 − 1 − 0 1 0 1 0 0 -10 − 1 0 − 1 − 0 1 0 (B) CRP-C CRP-Sw CRP-Pr CRP-Ref AGR-C AGR-Sw AGR-Pr precipita on Ta 2 0 10 0 -10 − 1 0 / / 80 8 0 3 0 8 0 3 0 8 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 6 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 4 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 2 0 0 .8 0 .8 0 .8 0.6 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 0.4 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0.2 0 .2 0 .2 0 .2 8 0 3 0 30 VWC (%) 3 0 20 2 0 10 1 0 Ta (°C) Ts (°C) 3 0 20 60 40 20 Precipita on (mm) 30 / 0.8 NDVI 0 .8 (C) 0 .2 / // / 0 .8 0.8 0 .8 0 .8 0 .8 0.6 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 0.4 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 0.2 0 .2 0 .2 0 .2 EVI / Rs Rh (μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) (μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) 0 .2 / / (D) 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 5 5 5 1 0 5 0 0 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 / 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 50 5 0 100 1 0 0 150 1 5 0 200 2 0 0 250 2 5 0 300 3 0 0 50 5 0 100 1 0 0 150 1 5 0 200 2 0 0 250 2 5 0 300 3 0 0 / 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 50 5 0 100 1 0 0 150 1 5 0 200 2 0 0 250 2 5 0 300 3 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 DOY Figure 3.1. Temporal changes of soil respiration and environmental variables across sites and years. (A) Daily air temperature (Ta) and biweekly mean soil temperature (Ts) at 10 cm depth from each site; (B) daily precipitation from KBS LTER weather station and soil volumetric water content (VWC) at 0-10 cm depth; (C) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from MODIS; (D) biweekly total soil respiration rate (Rs); and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). The soil temperature and soil moisture shown in (A) and (B) were measured simultaneously with Rs measurements. 91 3.3.1.2 Vegetation indices Seasonal changes in NDVI and EVI were distinctly different between the annual and perennial crops. The annual crop had only one peak, whereas the perennials had a rise-and-fall plateau June-September and longer growing seasons. At corn sites, VIs showed a small peak with weed growth before the corn was planted, and dropped after herbicide application in early May. In 2011, 2013, and 2014, corn growth began immediately after planting, reached its maximum in early July and stayed at a high biomass until late July or early August. The maximum NDVI and EVI in 2011, 2013, and 2014 occurred between mid-July and mid-August (solid and empty circles in Fig. 3.1 (C)). These results demonstrate how corn rapidly grew after seeding, and how its growth coupled with a high chlorophyll density at maturation. The VIs maintained their high values until September, decreased slightly because of the senescence and the drying of leaves before it eventually decreased sharply after the harvesting. The growth rate of corn seemed slower in 2012 compared to other years. The maximum VI delayed to late September. The average height of corn was only 1.5 m, which is around 1 m shorter than other years (data not shown). My VI data, field observations of crop conditions and eventual crop yield measurements confirm that crop growth in 2012 was lower than other years. In contrast to annual crop, the VIs of the perennial crops during the growing season had three distinct stages: a rapid increase in the spring (March or April), stable high levels in summer (June-September) and a decrease after harvest in the fall (September-October). Perennial crops always emerge a couple of weeks after the snow melts, which is far earlier than corn is planted (128-129 DOY). However, the temporal dynamics of crop growth in 2012 were different. The plants emerged early in 2012 in response to the warmth in March. The March and April VIs were higher than that in other years, as there was a higher temperature and less limitation on water in 92 their beginning weeks. However, later in July the VIs dropped, accompanied by the very low VWC. In mid- to late August, a second peak appeared since new rainfall mitigated the water deficit. However, the second EVI peak was lower than EVI in other years. The maximum values of NDVI and EVI in 2012 were 0.79 and 0.64, respectively, whereas those were 0.84 and 0.62 in 2011, 0.88 and 0.73 in 2013, and 0.87 and 0.74 in 2014 (triangles and squares in Fig. 3.1 (C)). 3.3.1.3 Soil respiration Briefly speaking, both the seasonal patterns of the total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) were hump-shaped during the GS. The Rs and Rh had similar seasonal changes, although Rh were less than Rs during GS, especially in their peaks (Fig. 3.2). Like the VI, the seasonal patterns of soil respiration were different between perennial grasses and annual crop. The R in perennial crops increased in mid- to late April when Ts increased and crops germinated. R had several peaks during June-September and then decreased in September when Ts declined and the leaves withered up. It sharply dropped in October after harvest. The soil respiration in corn rose slightly in April. The values of Rs and Rh were very close. The Rs obviously increased after mid-May when the corn was cultivated. The Rs values were higher than Rh later in the GS. 93 Figure 3.2. Temporal changes of total (Rs) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). The soil respiration values are the averaged measurements from four plots in each research field. Soil respiration was measured biweekly during the growing season (GS) and monthly in the non-GS. The solid circles and solid lines are for Rs. The empty circles and dashed lines are for Rh. 94 3.3.2 The seasonality of the root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration The mean annual RC fractional contributions to total soil respiration were 0.460, 0.427, 0.448, and 0.462 in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, respectively. The RC was significantly lower in 2012 than that in other years (data not shown). The CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw had significantly decreased in 2011 across all treatments (Fig. 2.13). Seasonal variations of RC in AGR-Pr and Ref were small during the GS, while, in summer, AGR-C, CRP-C, CRP-Sw and AGR-Pr had higher RC. The AGR-Sw and CRP-Pr had low RC in the mid- to late GS (Fig. 2.3 (A)). The correlation between RC and VWC presented very low RCs when VWC close to zero in AGR-Sw and CRP-Pr in 2012. In contrast to AGR-Sw and CRP-Pr, CRP-Sw had a reverse trend with low VWC values at with high RC. Other sites did not have a distinct pattern between RC and VWC (Fig. 2.3 (B)). 95 (A) (B) Figure 3.3. Temporal changes of the ratio of root contribution (RC) to total soil respiration and the correlation between RC and VWC. (A) The temporal variations of RC (Ra:Rs ratio) through growing seasons. The colors of circles present different years: Green, red, blue and purple represent 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. (B) The correlation between RC and VWC. The negative values of the ratio occurred when the model estimated Rh is larger than estimated Rs. 96 3.4 DISCUSSION 3.4.1 How seasonal patterns of biophysical drivers affect the seasonal patterns of soil respiration The major biophysical drivers affecting soil respiration are known to be temperature, soil water content, the substrate supply from plants, and their interactions (Luo et al., 2001; Curiel Yuste et al., 2004). However, the influences of these biophysical drivers on soil respiration may be different in different climate regimes and in different biomes due to the complex mechanisms of different components of soil respiration and their feedbacks. In arid and semi-arid ecosystems, water availability plays crucial roles in soil respiration, since it is the limiting factor (Davidson et al., 2000; Luo et al., 2001). The dynamics of soil moisture determines the seasonal patterns of soil respiration. In the Mediterranean climate, the soil respiration is limited by temperature in winter, while it is depressed by soil moisture in summer. The major control during the growing season often is soil moisture (Carbone et al., 2011). In mesic ecosystems, temperature and radiation are always the most important drivers of seasonal soil respiration, since water supply is less of limiting (Billing et al., 1998; Epron et al., 2001; Borken et al., 2002). My results demonstrate that without irrigation soil respiration in these managed crop ecosystems, which often experience hot and water-deficient summers and cold winters, is mainly driven by temperature and that water deficit also plays an important role in the hottest and driest periods. My experimental treatments are in a humid continental climate and soil temperature and vegetation regulate soil respiration most of the time during the growing season. However, the soil respiration rate in mid-July, the hottest period, was low in 2011 and 2012 (Fig. 3.2 and 3.4). The wet springs in 2013 and 2014 diminished the water stress in the growing seasons but the soil respiration still decreased later in late July or August, following the seasonal decrease of soil 97 moisture (Figs. 3.1 and 3.5). The findings imply that the projected increases in precipitation variation and extreme precipitation events in the Midwest US (Andresen et al., 2012) may alter ecosystem processes and carbon dynamics and seriously impact the ecosystem. The impacts of drought on the ecosystem processes, such as photosynthesis or carbon dioxide losses from the soil, in agricultural ecosystems can become more severe if the precipitation variability exacerbates the summer water stress. 10 1 0 10 1 0 0 0 0 -10 − 1 0 CRP-C CRP-Sw CRP-Pr CRP-Ref AGR-C AGR-Sw AGR-Pr precipita on Ta M Rs Rh -1 -2 (μmol CO2 m s ) (μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) 20 20 2 0 0 VWC (%) 30 3 0 2 0 -10 − 1 0 80 8 0 30 3 0 60 6 0 20 2 0 40 4 0 10 1 0 20 2 0 Precipita on (mm) Ts (°C) 3 0 Ta (°C) 2011 30 0.8 0 .8 0.6 EVI 0 .6 A M J J A S N O 10 1 0 5 5 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 10 1 0 5 5 0 0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 DOY 0.4 0 .4 0.2 0 .2 50 100 150 200 250 300 DOY Figure 3.4. The seasonality of soil respiration and their drivers in 2011. (A) The seasonality of biophysical factors (Ts, VWC and VI) were shown by different colors. (B) The seasonality of Rs and Rh were predominantly controlled by different drivers at different times in the growing season. The color band at upper-right corner shows their period of control. DOY means the day of year. 98 (A) AGR−C Rs AGR−Sw Rs AGR-C AGR−Pr Rs AGR-Pr AGR-Sw 10 1 0 5 5 0 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 0 n a e m R S n a e m R S n a e m R S 1 0 5 5 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 0 CRP−Sw Rs 1 0 0 1 5 0 D O Y 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 CRP-C 1 0 50 100 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 0 0 3 5 0 350 3 5 0 Ref 1 0 5 0 0 CRP−Ref Rs 2 5 0 n a e m R S 5 5 2 0 0 1 0 n a e m R S 5 1 5 0 1 5 0 CRP-Pr 1 0 1 0 0 CRP−Pr Rs 1 0 0 D O Y CRP-Sw 10 0 3 5 0 D O Y n a e m R S 1 0 0 n a e m R S Rs (μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) 0 0 CRP−C Rs 5 0 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 0 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 DOY (B) AGR−C Rh AGR−Sw Rh AGR-C AGR-Sw 10 AGR-Pr n a e m R S 5 5 0 0 0 CRP−C Rh 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 5 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 0 CRP−Sw Rh 1 0 0 1 5 0 D O Y 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 CRP-C 0 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 0 0 3 5 0 350 3 5 0 Ref 1 0 5 0 1 0 0 100 CRP−Ref Rh 2 5 0 n a e m R S 5 50 2 0 0 1 0 n a e m R S 0 1 5 0 CRP-Pr 1 0 n a e m R S 1 0 5 CRP−Pr Rh 1 0 0 D O Y CRP-Sw 10 5 3 5 0 D O Y n a e m R S 5 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 0 n a e m R S 1 0 n a e m R S 1 0 Rh (μmol CO2 m-2 s-1) AGR−Pr Rh 5 0 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 0 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 1 0 0 100 1 5 0 150 2 0 0 200 D O Y 2 5 0 250 3 0 0 300 3 5 0 350 DOY Figure 3.5. The seasonality of Rs and Rh across four years. (A) Rs and (B) Rh were plotted with DOY, which means the day of year. The measurement of Rs and Rh were biweekly during late-April and September and monthly in October to December. The colors and different types of lines display different years. The summer decrease of R with maximum soil temperature displays the decoupling of soil respiration and soil temperature that happened commonly in all experimental years. There 99 are two main hypotheses for the decoupled respiration-temperature relationship. The first is heat suppression of biochemical reactions. High temperatures may break down the protoplasm system and depress the metabolism of roots and soil microbes. The second is limitation of water deficit to plant roots and microorganisms. High temperatures increase both transpiration and evaporation rates with high photosynthetic and metabolic rates and high diffusion rates of water from the surface of the ground to the atmosphere, respectively. Maximum temperature always occurred simultaneously with minimum soil moisture in late July. The first hypothesis was not supported by my data since the thermal threshold for the suppression of biochemical reactions is generally higher than 35C and, although it may vary among different plant species and soil microbes (pp. 86-87, Luo & Zhou, 2006), soil temperatures in my data were always less than 35C. The second hypothesis is more likely because of R-T decoupled since the July VWC fell to below 10%. The low VWC (for weeks) in late summer depressed the metabolism of roots and soil microbes, and thus decreased soil respiration. 3.4.2 The seasonality of Ra and Rh in the dry and hot year The impacts of drought on ecosystems can vary depending on the magnitude, timing and duration of the drought. My treatments experienced a severe drought in spring-summer 2012 when I found a strong ecosystem response that included the lower soil respiration, lower annual yield, lower summer NDVI and EVI, lower plant heights and summer wilt in some research sites, followed by the change of plant composition in 2012 and the following years in the switchgrass and prairie fields (Abraha et al., 2016). Two main events with biological feedback caused the severe spring-summer water deficit. First, the thaw was earlier due to unusually hot March (Fig. 2.3 & Table S.2.1). The warm ground stimulated the early germination of weeds and thus consumed soil water via high March evapotranspiration (ET) (Abraha et al., 2015). Second, the 100 low May-August precipitation did not fully replenish the soil water pool and therefore did not satisfy the water demands of crops and soil microbes. The depletion of soil moisture in June suspended the growth and development of crops. Both NDVI and EVI values significantly decreased in June and July in all fields, and biomass did not rebound until August (Figs. 2.2 (C) & (D)). Savage and Davidson (2001) reported similar findings in their soil respiration research in Harvard Forest “upland” (well and moderately well drained) mixed hardwood forest in Massachusetts. They argued that the late summer low soil respiration rates were due to low soil moisture and were dependent on the duration and severity of the preceding dry period and the timing of the onset of soil respiration increase in the previous spring. The preceding inter-annual variation of soil water availability may be a crucial factor affecting the soil respiration rate, although the correlation between soil respiration and soil moisture is usually not clear and confounded with other factors. The effect of soil moisture on soil respiration is more like a threshold, rather than a linear or quadratic correlation, for a well-drained habitat. The soil respiration rates were markedly suppressed when soil moisture was lower than the threshold. I will discuss more about how the community structure, ecological processes and ecosystem functions have adapted to growing-season drought (months) in the years in later chapters. Compared to the short-term inhibition of soil respiration by water deficit in 2011, 2013 and 2014, the severe and long-term (months) drought of 2012 had great and multifaceted impacts on agricultural ecosystems, affecting plant community structure, biodiversity, and ecological processes and functions. My 2012 results revealed that there was a decreased growing-seasonal PRCP, VWC, NDVI, EVI, annual yield, Rs and Rh, although the annual ET was relatively consistent. The adaptation of ecosystems to growing-season drought may include changes in 101 ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) via shifts in plant species composition and specifically the biomass ratio of C3/C4 species. The changes of plant composition and ecosystem processes in response to the 2012 drought lasted into the years following (Abraha et al., 2016). I will discuss how ecosystem functions respond to the common short-term drought in the late growing seasonal and the occasional long-term growing-seasonal drought in Chapter 4. 3.4.3 The seasonality of Ra and Rh in humid springs and cool summers Post-drought years 2013 and 2014 had similar GS climate patterns, with wet springs (or wet spring-summer periods) and cool summers; although 2014 had a wetter and cooler summer than 2013 (Fig. 3.1 and Table S.2.1). The wet spring fulfilled the water demands in the early GS and supplied enough water to plants and soil microbes. The peaks of soil respiration in those two years were in the hottest month, July, during the middle of the growing season. The humid and cool summer brought high soil respiration in July, but the August and September rates were lower. Surprisingly, soil respiration did not recover to the 2011 level. In contrast to the steady decrease of R in 2012, the summer R peaks were flattened or did not occur (Fig. 3.5). 3.4.4 Seasonal variation in RC Seasonal patterns of RC can be complex because they reflect the relative dynamics of Ra and Rh and their different responses to environmental change. The three peaks of RC can be explained separately by the phenology of plants and seasonal activity of soil microbial communities. The early-spring peak represented rapid increases of Ra due to the emergence of crops, even though raising temperature stimulates both Ra and Rh. The rise of Rh was slower than Ra and that resulted in lower RC in the mid-spring to early summer. The second peak usually happened in late July during the hottest and driest period. The lack of water depressed the soil 102 microbial activity more than root metabolism since roots can obtain water from deeper horizons (Carbone et al., 2011). The RC decreased slightly after a couple of heavy rains in late July or early August. The responses of soil microbes to rewetting were quicker and larger than root response. The third peak occurred in November and December when the decrease of temperature limited most activities of soil microbes and roots but the relative contribution of Ra to Rs was higher than most of the growing season, except in the spring and summer peaks. In addition to the general three-peak patterns, different treatments had their own patterns in response to drought. The Ref field had relatively consistent RC through the growing season regardless of the soil moisture, which was extremely low in summer 2012 (Fig. 3.1 (B)). The responses of Ra and Rh to low soil moisture were thus similar (Fig. 3.6 (B)). The RC in CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw had similar relationships to VWC (Fig. 3.3 (B)) due to the differential decreases of Ra and Rh when VWC decreased. The magnitude of Ra decreases was higher than those of Rh (Fig. 3.6 (A) and (B)). The Ra in these two sites dropped to near zero when soil moisture was low. I found that most of the plants in these two sites wilted during the summer 2012 drought. Combining field observations, the low Ra and the VI data, I believe that the 2012 water deficit had decreased available soil water even deep belowground. Plants were barely getting enough water to support their basic metabolism when soil water is very low. The CRP-Sw responded differently in that both Ra and Rh decreased in the 2012 drought but Rh decreased more than Ra (Fig. 3.6 (A) and (B)), resulting in increased RCs when soil moisture was low (Fig. 3.3 (B)). The two corn sites contained higher soil water compared to perennial treatments since we seeded corn in early May. The consumption of water from the corn crop in spring was not as large as that in the perennial crops. Their RC in general does not change much; but in the summer of 2012, RC in both sites were lower than in other years (Fig. 3.3 (A)). 103 The CRP fields may have experienced more severe drought stress than the AGR fields in 2012 because of soil differences. Three CRP-perennial cropping farms, Ref, CRP-Pr and CRPSw had almost zero VWC while AGR-Pr and AGR-Sw had around 6% and two corn sites had almost 10% VWC at the driest time in 2012 (Fig. 3.1 (B)). Three CRP-perennial crop sites showed a sudden drop in Ra when VWC fell below 5% (Fig. 3.6 (A)), suggesting that the root system lost its ability to respire. A dramatic drop in Rh also happened in the Ref and CRP-Sw sites. The combination of the decreases in Ra and Rh in different sites changed RCs in the summer of 2012. At the driest time, CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw had very low RC because of the extremely low Ra. Ref had a relatively stable RC since both Ra and Rh were low. The CRP-Sw had a high RC since the decrease of Rh was more than that of Ra. The Ra can be higher than Rh when VWC is low, since plants can uptake soil water from deeper soil layers. However, the 2012 drought seems to of deeply drained the soil water and both switchgrass and prairie plants had difficulty to obtaining water. Compared to Ra at low VWC (<10%) levels across different years, the Ra in Brome grass (Ref) and prairie sites was lower in 2012-2014 than that in 2011. There are some possible reasons for the lower Ra. First, 2013 and 2014 had lower summer temperatures while 2012 had lower VI, which reflects lower biomass and photosynthetic rates. The lower temperature and lower photosynthesis-derived carbon inputs to roots reduced Ra. The second is that the 2012 drought changed the species composition of vegetation and that the changes beyond that year. Abraha et al. (2016) reported this dramatic decrease in the C3:C4 ratio of grasses in the CRP-Sw, AGR-Pr and AGR-Sw sites (Fig. 3.7 (A)). Switchgrass and prairie in AGR had higher ecosystem water use efficiency (eWUE) after 2012 (Fig. 3.7 (B)). The first reason seems robust while the latter one needs more evidence to improve or modify it. 104 (A) (B) Figure 3.6. The responses of Ra and Rh to VWC. (A) Ra and (B) Rh were correlated to VWC differently in different treatments. The responses of the components of Rs changed the temporal patterns of RC during growing season. Different years are exhibited by different colors. 105 (A) (B) Figure 3.7. The changes of C3:C4 biomass ratio and ecosystem water-use efficiency (eWUE). (A) The changes of biomass of C3 and C4 grasses in prairie and switchgrass sites after land use change; and (B) the variation of eWUE across years in all seven sites. The eWUE was calculated by GPP/ET, where GPP is gross primary production and ET is evapotranspiration. The letters present the difference across years in the same site while the asterisks show the difference between land use histories in the same crop. Notice that the experimental period was 2010-2013 (Source: Abraha et al., 2016). 3.5 CONCLUSIONS Amplitude, duration and timing of extreme drought events leave consequences on ecosystem processes, such as Ra and Rh. At the intra-annual scale, I found that soil temperature and EVI had an exponential correlation with both Ra and Rh. However, soil water deficits limited soil respiration—even soil temperature and EVI were high. In addition, the severe drought, which had a high amplitude, long duration and occurred during spring-summer, seriously impacted Ra and Rh. The impact of the occasional severe drought altered plant composition (RC), which had responded to biophysical variables at inter- and intra-annual scales due to the different magnitudes and speeds of Ra and Rh responses to biophysical variables. Three peaks of RC occurred in early spring plant emergence, mid-summer dry and the winter low temperature 106 period. Different land use histories (LUH) and crop types (CROP) had different responses to the 2012 severe drought. Most perennial sites had lower RC in 2012, demonstrated that severe drought had stronger depression on Ra than on Rh. The especially low summer RCs in CRP-Pr and AGR-Sw fields and very high RCs in CRP-Sw field reflected the different responses of Ra and Rh to different levels of water deficit underneath different composition of LUH and CROP. Furthermore, the opposite responses of RC to the regular summer low soil moisture and to the occasional severe drought revealed that short-term (1-2 weeks) summer drought depressed Rh more than Ra while occasional severe drought impacted Ra more than Rh. The depression of both Ra and Rh can be predicted if the occasional severe drought events increases in the future, especially for Ra. The decrease of root respiration ability implies that the decrease of metabolism and photosynthetic ability may increase NEE (decrease carbon sequestration ability). However, perennial crops may adapt to low water conditions and mitigate the impact of frequent severe drought by altering plant composition and increasing eWUE, while corn cannot. The benefit of perennial cellulosic biofuel crops will enlarge the difference between itself and annual crops. 107 LITERATURE CITED 108 LITERATURE CITED Abraha, M., Chen, J., Chu, H., Zenone, T., John, R., Su, Y.J., Hamilton, S.K., Robertson, G.P., 2015. 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Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 180, 3443. 111 CHAPTER 4 ECOSYSTEM RESISTANCE AND RESILIENCE TO SEVERE DROUGHTS: A BAYESIAN MODELING OF SOIL RESPIRATION ABSTRACT The intensification of drought magnitude and frequency is predicted to occur in the future due to global climate change. The altered precipitation patterns and increasing precipitation extremes increase soil water stress and impact ecosystem structure and function with immediate and prolonged effects. How the major carbon processes of grasslands and croplands respond to the severe droughts play important roles in scientific understanding and evidence-driven policy making for biofuel development. However, at present, most drought effects on ecosystem carbon cycle studies have only focused on immediate effects based on manipulated lab or field experiments. I monitored the responses of soil respiration components of multiple crops under different land use histories for four years, which included one wet-hot year, one severe dry-hot year, and two wet-cool years. This dataset allows us to examine the resistance and recovery of one of the major carbon cycling processes, soil respiration, to a naturally occurring drought. Bayesian models help us test the difference of the temperature sensitivity (β) and growing-season soil respiration (LR20) of autotrophic (Ra) and heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh) across different crop types (CROP) and land use histories (LUH) and their responses after severe drought. My results revealed that CROP affected Ra more whereas LUH influenced Rh more. Both Rh and Rs had different β responses. Strong water stress depressed both β and LR20 of Ra in the drought year but stimulated β of Rh. The increased β of Rh may be due to the change in the soil microbial community structure, but more research is still required to quantify these responses. The LR20 of Rs rose back to the 2011 levels after a one- or two-year lag in recovery, 112 while those of Rh did not return back to the values of 2011 yet. The β of Rh seems to require longer recovery time or has reached a new equilibrium. 4.1 INTRODUCTION It is predicted that future climate changes will include a greater intensity and a greater variability in extreme events in many parts of the world. Heat waves and precipitation extremes (droughts, heavy rains and floods) are projected to occur with higher frequencies and magnitudes (IPCC, 2013; Smith, 2011; Knorr et al., 2007) due to the amplification of the hydrological cycle (Knapp et al., 2008). Rising global temperatures and the alteration of precipitation patterns have already been reported in many regions, significantly impacting various ecosystems. The intensified precipitation regimes, including larger individual precipitation events and longer intervening dry periods, on both intra- and the inter-annual scales, induce stronger soil water stress in mesic ecosystems and modify ecosystem functions by changing community structure and individual traits, seriously disturbing ecosystems (Knapp et al., 2008). Smith (2011) and Reichstein et al. (2013) redefined extreme climatic events (ECE) to not only consider the statistically unusual climate periods (driver) but also the changes of ecosystem functions (response) during or after the period of extreme climatic events. The new definition is not only based on statistics, but also considers the responses of an ecosystem related to important ecological processes and their drivers, and thus is better suited for ecological and environmental research. The resilience of an ecosystem to an external disturbance has multiple definitions. Holling (1996) identified “ecological resilience” as the magnitude of the disturbance that the system can absorb before the system changes its structure and the processes that control the behavior of the system; he also defines “engineering resilience” as the speed of return to the pre- 113 disturbance equilibrium. These two definitions of resilience were developed from different perspectives: the former focuses on the persistence of the behavior and whether the change of ecosystem functions and the relative processes and structure exist or not, while the latter concerns the recovery speed and the time to return to the stable status (Holling, 1973). They represent two important aspects of the system’s behavior after the system experiences a disturbance, reflecting the immediate and prolonged effects of the disturbance. This chapter addresses the resilience of soil respiration in biofuel cropping systems. To mitigate the impacts of CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion, the production of bioenergy has dramatically increased in the past decades. The growing bioenergy industry has stimulated worldwide land use change, converting many land use types into biofuel cropping farms or into agricultural land to address food shortage, which is caused by biofuel production. The expansion of biofuel crop production plays an important role in land use change now and in the future (Lark et al., 2015). Major biofuel crops include corn and several perennial cellulosic herbaceous grasses, such as switchgrass, Miscanthus and elephant grass (Lemus & Lal, 2005; Johnson et al., 2007). Drought, as one of the most import climate-induced extremes, critically impacts the carbon cycling of grasslands and croplands (Reichstein et al., 2013; Ciais et al., 2005). It may bring strong soil water stress, affect the plant’s growth and soil microbial activities, and ultimately impact ecosystem carbon dynamics. On the other hand, grasslands and cropping systems have high recovery plant growth potential in both managed and unmanaged ecosystems and thus, may perform better in dry years than forests (Zavalloni et al., 2008; Gilgen & Buchmann 2009; Reichstein et al., 2013). Most studies of drought consequences on ecosystems emphasize immediate responses. However, the protracted recovery of ecosystem functions lacks 114 documentation, even though it may be more important (Hoover et al., 2016). In addition, most drought or drought-rewetting studies are manipulation experiments in the lab or in the field. The manipulation of water input may change some physical conditions and the radiation balance, and ultimately affect ecosystem responses. The naturally occurring inter-annual climate variability (wet-hot, severely dry-hot, wetcool, wet-cool, in sequence) in 2011-2014 at my experimental sites provided me with a good opportunity to examine how ecosystems respond to the severe drought in both the disturbance year and the following recovery years. In Chapter 2, I looked for differences in Q10 between different sites in each year but found no significant difference among sites or years because of high variability in each treatment. The Bayesian modeling approach outperforms the conventional frequentist statistical approach for testing the changes of temperature sensitivities of soil respiration among LUH and CROP, the year-to-year trend after LUC or the immediate and prolonged effects after severe drought. In this chapter, I develop a new method, based on a probabilistic Bayesian approach, to estimate how the relationships of soil respiration, including Rh and Rs, and soil temperature respond to intra-annual climate patterns, severe drought and long-term trends after LUC. Specifically, I developed Bayesian models to test the R-Ts relationship among CROP and LUH and clarified their immediate and prolonged responses to severe drought. I hypothesized that perennial crops, which develop their dense root system after lands use change, have higher probabilities to weaken the impact of drought, have higher resistance and lower sensitivity to drought and have a high rate to recover after drought. The late successional grasslands may have high resistance and resilience of soil respiration temperature sensitivity to severe drought due to its highly developed root system while those in corn fields are weak. 115 4.2 METHODS 4.2.1 Study area My experimental sites are located at the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center scale-up fields of the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS, 42°40’N, 85°40’W), established in association with the KBS Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) site. The sites are located in the southwest of Michigan, USA (Fig. 1.2.). The climate is humid continental (warm summer) climate (Dfa; Peel et al., 2007). The mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation at KBS are 10.1 °C and 1005 mm yr-1 (1981-2010), respectively (Robertson & Hamilton, 2015). 4.2.2 Experimental design and schedule Seven experimental plots were located at two locations with their own land use histories (LUHs): (1) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands at Marshall Farm, and (2) cornsoybean rotation agricultural fields (AGR) at Lux Arbor Reserve. The CRP sites have been in a monoculture of smooth brome grass (Bromus inermis Leyss) since 1987, while the AGR fields have been under conventional corn-soybean rotation cultivation for several decades (Fig. 1.6). The soil texture at all sites is sandy loam, except for a sandy clay loam at one field. However, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at the CRP sites were significantly higher than those at the AGR sites before land conversion (Table 1.1). The experiment was conducted at seven scale-up fields ranging from 9 to 17 hectares. Four fields are located in Marshall Farm (i.e., CRP sites) and three in Lux Arbor Reserve (i.e., AGR sites). All sites, except the reference site (Ref), were sprayed with herbicide at the end of 2008 to prepare the lands for soybean planting in 2009. The CRP and AGR sites were then cultivated with either continuous corn (Zea mays, Dekalb DK-52), switchgrass (Panicum 116 virgatum), or a mixture of native prairie grasses, which have been dominated by Canada wild rye (Elymus Canadensis), little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) since 2010. A particular CRP grassland dominated by brome grass was not disturbed and was retained as the reference site (Gelfand et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2011; Deal et al., 2013; Zenone et al., 2013). I used an experimental code for these sites by abbreviating them as “LUH-CROP”. The CRP-C, CRP-Sw and CRP-Pr represent the CRP sites that were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture respectively, while AGR-C, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr are AGR farms were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture. In 2010, when the crops were established, the perennial crops switchgrass and prairie were accompanied by oats as a nurse crop with and without fertilization, respectively. No other management practices were applied beyond harvesting at the end of each growing season (GS). No-till continuous corn was seeded in midMay with a one-time herbicide mix (Lumax, Atrazine 4L, Honcho Plus and (NH4)2SO4). Phosphorus, potassium and nitrogen fertilizers were applied during April and June in each year (Zenone et al., 2013). 4.2.3 The climatic and microclimatic measurements and growth season identification Climate, such as air temperature (Ta) and daily precipitation (PRCP), and microclimate, such as soil temperature and soil water content, were recorded as the independent variables. They were recorded at different spatial and temporal scales based on the requirement of the research and the limitation of the equipment and labor. The daily mean Ta and daily accumulative PRCP were collected and calculated from the KBS LTER weather station (42°24’47.1” N, 85°22’15.3” W; www.lter.kbs.msu.edu). The air temperature was recorded hourly by a thermometer at 3 m height. The mean daily air 117 temperature was calculated from the hourly data. Precipitation was measured by a NOAH IV total precipitation gauge (ETi Instrument Systems Inc., Fort Collins, CO). Soil temperature (Ts) and volumetric soil water content (VWC) were measured simultaneously with soil respiration rate measurements biweekly during late April to September and monthly during other times. Soil temperature was measured at 10 cm depth using a Taylor 8940N digital thermometer (Taylor Precision Products, Las Cruces, NM, USA), while VWC was monitored below the ground surface at 10 cm depth using a HydroSense II with a CS659 sensor (Campbell Scientific, Inc. (CSI), Logan, UT). The length of the GS is an important index for climate change and agriculture. Several identifications are based on climate and crop growth. I used temperature-based identification, which is the most common in North America (a.k.a. frost-free season) instead of crop-based GS since soil respiration includes the soil microbe-derived carbon efflux, not only plant-derived soil carbon efflux. The onset and end of the climatic GS each year were calculated based on a nineday moving average of daily mean air temperature (9d-Ta) to filter short-term warm or cold events, which may not induce the start of plant growth and development in spring. The onset of the GS was identified as the first day exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in spring, while the end of the GS was recognized as the latest day exceeding 0C 9d-Ta in fall. The lengths of the GS were the number of dates between the onset and the end of the GS each year. To compare the soil respiration rates, climate, microclimate and the vegetation indices, I separated the data into different years based on the USGS’ “water year” concept October 1st to September 30th—as it is more meaningful than a calendar year in agricultural research. I identified the water year in my dissertation from the end of the previous GS until the end of this GS because post-GS precipitation may subsidize the soil water pool and support plant and soil 118 microbe consumption in the next GS. The length of the water year may be different due to the different seasonal patterns of air temperature in fall and winter. 4.2.4 The total and heterotrophic soil respiration measurements Four plots at each site were randomly selected to install 1x1 m root exclusion plots for measuring heterotrophic soil respiration (Rh). We dug a 1 m deep trench around the edges of each square (Fig. 2.1 (B)). The trenches were lined with root-barrier sheets before the soil was refilled according to its soil profile (Fig. 2.1 (C); Tang et al., 2005). The plants and roots inside the square were manually removed and/or killed by herbicide (Monsanto Roundup®). Two PVC collars (10 cm diameter) were installed inside the square to accommodate flux chambers to measure Rh. Another two collars were installed surrounding the square to measure total soil respiration (Rs) (Fig. 2.1(D)). A total of 112 measurements (including Rh and Rs) were taken between 10AM and 7PM when soil respiration is at its diel maximum. Soil respiration was measured biweekly during the GS and monthly during the non-GS when snow cover is minimal to allow the measurements (October–December). The chamberbased infrared gas analyzer (IRGA) approach of soil respiration measurement was done with an LI-6400 portable photosynthesis system with a 10 cm diameter 6400-09 soil chamber or LI-8100 with a 10 cm diameter 8100-102 soil chamber (LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, NE). 4.2.5 Vegetation Index data Vegetation indices, including normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and enhanced vegetation index (EVI), were calculated based on satellite remote sensing using band 1 (nir), band 2 (red), and band 3 (blue) of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The NDVI was determined by the ratio of the difference between near-infrared 119 reflectance and red reflectance to their sum (Tucker et al., 2005). The EVI was further modified with a soil adjustment factor, L, and two atmospheric aerosol scattering coefficients, C1 and C2 (Huete et al., 1999), and has higher sensitivity at the “green” portion of the spectrum when vegetation is very dense. These data were developed from MODIS daily products by selecting the optimal day (i.e., low cloud cover) out of a 16-day interval. Missing data may appear when clouds obscured the site over an entire 16-day period. NDVI and EVI data were downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.shtml). I used a single pixel from the MODIS image that fell within each experimental site at the finest spatial resolution of 250 m. The dates of NDVI and EVI values were paired with the nearest dates of soil respiration measurement. 4.2.6 The concept of Bayesian modeling In this chapter, I use a Bayesian approach to estimate the parameters of the posterior models and analyze the changes of log10-transformed soil respiration temperature sensitivity (β) and soil respiration value at 20°C (LR20), both of which are used as indices to observe the changes in the Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships. Temperature sensitivity of soil respiration (β) and log10 soil respiration at 20°C (LR20) The Pr(C|D) was calculated with the following equation: Pr(𝐶|𝐷) = Pr⁡(𝐶) × Pr⁡(𝐷|𝐶) Eq. 4-1 Pr⁡(𝐷) where Pr(C|D) is the probability of event C occurring, given that event D had occurred and that Pr(D|C) is the inverse. Here, I can consider Pr(C), the first term on the right side of the equation, as prior knowledge from previous studies, empirical data or broad-scale data. The second term on the right side, Pr(D|C)/Pr(D), is the likelihood that can be based on new data, specific data or 120 even new estimates from different mechanisms, relationships with other variables or a new hypothesis. The posterior model on the left side of the equation is then estimated from the combination of the prior model and the likelihood function. For continuous data, the posterior models of Bayesian statistics were estimated from the combination of prior information and new knowledge (likelihood). The Bayes’ rule for continuous data can be rewritten as below: Pr(𝐶|𝐷) = Pr(𝐶)×⁡Pr(𝐷|𝐶) Eq. 4-2 ∞ ∫0 Pr(𝑥)×Pr(𝐷|𝑥)𝑑𝑥 where C is the specific value for the parameter. The replacement of the denominator Pr(D) to the integration of over all possible events, which represents the sum of the conditional probabilities of the parameter (x). The Bayesian model, thus, can separate into three major parts: prior model, likelihood and posterior model. The prior model can be the estimated distribution of probabilities from empirical data, previous knowledge or a broader scale dataset. The likelihood can be a set of new data, a relationship from other independent variables, or the specific group of data contained in the broad scale data. The new probability distribution was created from the prior model and likelihood. 4.2.7 The estimations of prior models To better develop the Bayesian model and compare R-T relationships in various CROP or LUH and their responses to climate patterns and severe climate events, as well as the shift of R-T relationship after LUC, I separated Rh and Rs data by year and then created Bayesian models independently. The probabilities of the values of log10 soil respiration were assumed to have a natural distribution and were fitted by the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) approach: 𝑅𝑖 ~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) Eq. 4-3 121 where μ and σ2 were the mean and variance, respectively, to the probabilities of a particular soil respiration rate Ri. The starting points of the suitable MLE models were determined from the means and standard variations in the raw data of soil respiration rates. The results of the well-fitted MLE models were my prior models of the Bayesian models. The MLE models were run by the “bbmle” package (https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/bbmle/index.html) for R language (R Development Core Team, 2010). 4.2.8 The equations of likelihood To elucidate the R-T relationship based on traditional exponential hypothesis and my previous analysis (Chapter 2), I assumed a linear correlation between the log10 soil respiration rates (log10R) to soil temperature (Ts). Therefore, I assumed the likelihood is as below: 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑅 = 𝛼 + 𝛽 ∙ 𝑇𝑠 + 𝜖 Eq. 4-4 where α, intercept of the regression line, is the value of log10R at 0°C; and β, the slope of the regression line, is the raising value of log10R when Ts increase by 1°C, representing temperature sensitivity of soil respiration. In order to incorporate the different effects of CROP and LUH on R-T relationships when they respond to climate, I added “site” as a latent discrete term in the likelihood equation: 𝑙𝑜𝑔𝑅 = 𝛼 + 𝛽 ∙ 𝑇𝑠 + 𝑠𝑖𝑡𝑒 + 𝜖 Eq. 4-5 Both α and β were assumed to have normal distributions with small variances. 4.2.9 Calculation of estimations of posterior models After setting up the whole model, the “R2jags” package (https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/R2jags/index.html) for R language ran the Bayesian model using the 122 Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to estimate the posterior models for 10,000 runs with 1,000 discarded initial samples to obtain the values of α and β in each iteration. The distributions of the parameters were checked by the “mcmcplots” package (https://cran.rproject.org/web/packages/mcmcplots/index.html) to diagnose whether posteriors converged to their stationary distribution or not. Then, LR20, the log10R value at 20°C, was calculated based on the values of α and β: 𝐿𝑅20 = 𝛼 + 20 ∙ 𝛽 Eq. 4-6 In this equation, β and LR20 are plotted on a bi-plot. The locations of the predictions revealed the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration and the GS soil respiration. The location of the “clouds”, which are composed of the predictions of Bayesian models, on the β-LR20 biplot presents the R-T relationship of each field. The behaviors of clouds across years display its responses to climate. The means and standard deviations of each cloud were calculated and used to recognize the shift among years. 4.2.10 Estimation of β and LR20 of Ra After simulating β and LR20 of Rs and Rh, I calculated the β and LR20 of Ra after weighing the root’s contribution to soil respiration (RC). This is because both β of Ra (βRa) and β of Rh (βRh) contribute to β of Rs (βRs), according to their relative contribution, which can be presented as: 𝛽𝑅𝑠 = 𝑅𝐶 ∙ 𝛽𝑅𝑎 + (1 − 𝑅𝐶) ∙ ⁡ 𝛽𝑅ℎ Eq. 4-7 where RC is the root contribution of total soil respiration (i.e., Ra:Rs ratio) for each field in each year (Supplement 4-1). The values of βRa can be calculated by the following equation, derived from Eq. 4-7 above: 123 𝛽𝑅𝑎 = 𝛽𝑅𝑠 −(1−𝑅𝐶)∙𝛽𝑅ℎ Eq. 4-8 𝑅𝐶 The LR20 of Ra was calculated by the same methods in the equation below: 𝐿𝑅20 𝑅 = 𝑎 𝐿𝑅20 𝑅 −(1−𝑅𝐶)∙𝐿𝑅20 𝑅 𝑠 ℎ Eq. 4-9 𝑅𝐶 where LR20Ra is the LR20 of Ra, LR20Rs is the LR20 of Rs and LR20Rh is LR20 of Rh. 4.3 RESULTS 4.3.1 Bayesian models for the R-Ts relationship The prior models of Rs and Rh for each year were estimated by MLE based on the log10transformed soil respiration rates that were assumed to have normal distributions. The starting points of each model simulation were the means and the standard deviations of raw soil respiration data (Table 4.1 & Fig. 4.1). The MLE models fit raw data well, although the raw data of log10 soil respiration were slightly left skewed. The year 2012 had the greatest variance while 2014 had the smallest variance for both Rs and Rh. Table 4.1. The mean and standard deviation of log10 soil respiration by year. The values of mean and standard deviation (sd) were used as the starting point of Maximum Likelihood estimation (MLE) natural distribution. Rs is total soil respiration and Rh is heterotrophic soil respiration. year mean sd Rs 2011 0.495 0.358 2012 0.298 0.468 2013 0.469 0.391 2014 0.592 0.280 Rh 2011 2012 2013 2014 0.374 0.108 0.164 0.362 124 0.405 0.502 0.448 0.301 (A) (B) Figure 4.1. The probabilities of log10 soil respiration in each year. For Rs (A) and Rh (B), the distribution of MLE models (dark colors) were based on normal distributions, with the means and standard deviations derived from the raw data. The distribution of raw data (light colors) were slightly skewed left, but most of them were well fitted. Green, red, blue and purple curves represent the distributions of log soil respiration data in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, respectively. 125 4.3.2 The differences of β and LR20 between CROP and LUH CROP and LUH play important roles on the R-T relationship. I recognize the different locations of βRs-LR20Rs and βRh-LR20Rh between CROP (i.e., C, Sw, Pr and Ref) and between LUH (i.e., AGR, CRP and Ref). For total soil respiration, the Ref site had the highest LR20 and a relatively high β in both Rs and Rh across all sites. In contrast, corn sites had the lowest LR20 in both Rs and Rh compared to other perennial sites (switchgrass and prairie). Prairie had higher LR20 and β than switchgrass. For the effect of LUH for Rs, CRP had lower β and higher LR20 than AGR in perennial crops while AGR always had higher β in CRP fields than those in AGR fields in the annual crop (Table 4.2 & Fig. 4.2(A)). The effect of CROP and LUH on the R-T relationship for Rh are similar to that for Rs. CRP sites had higher LR20 than AGR sites. Ref and CRP-Pr had high LR20, followed by CRP-Sw and then CRP-C. The LR20 in AGR-Sw was near that of AGR-Pr and higher than that of AGR-C (Table 4.2 & Fig. 4.2(B)). 126 (A) (B) Figure 4.2. The distributions of log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivity (β) and log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20). The Bayesian models were developed based on the Bayesian approach, with data from the four growing seasons (2011-2014), which include Rs (A) and Rh (B). The predictions were simulated from Bayesian models using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which is a method based on the probabilities of β and LR20. Each cloud represents one site for different crop types and land use histories. Table 4-2. The values of LR20 and β in the Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships. The means and standard deviations were calculated from the Bayesian estimation of each site, which include data from all four growing seasons (2011-2014). CROP: crop types; LUH: former land use history; C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie; Ref: reference; CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn=soybean rotation agriculture. CROP C Sw Pr Ref Rs LUH Rh CRP LR20 0.442 ± 0.051 β 0.027 ± 0.002 LR20 0.289 ± 0.053 β 0.026 ± 0.002 AGR 0.340 ± 0.056 0.019 ± 0.003 0.081 ± 0.064 0.018 ± 0.003 CRP 0.622 ± 0.059 0.009 ± 0.003 0.374 ± 0.061 0.014 ± 0.003 AGR 0.541 ± 0.067 0.022 ± 0.003 0.296 ± 0.073 0.029 ± 0.003 CRP 0.695 ± 0.057 0.018 ± 0.003 0.441 ± 0.054 0.019 ± 0.002 AGR 0.591 ± 0.068 0.031 ± 0.003 0.267 ± 0.062 0.024 ± 0.003 0.804 ± 0.054 0.025 ± 0.003 0.456 ± 0.054 0.027 ± 0.003 127 4.3.3 The distribution of β and LR20 of Ra and Rh and their trajectories across years When comparing the locations of the β-LR20 plots, I found that Rh had relatively smaller amounts in LR20 than Rs (Fig. 4.3). I calculated the β and the LR20 of Ra based on the weighed β and the LR20 of Rs and Rh (Eq. 4-7 & Eq. 4-8, Supplement 4-1). Generally speaking, Ra and Rh in the β-LR20 plots had very different responses to the 2012 drought (Fig. 4.4). In the drought year, all βRa decreased at different levels. They then rebounded in the following years but at variable rates. The Ref site had high resistance but slow recovery. The βRa decreased in 2012 and 2013 and then rose back to the 2011 level in 2014. Other sites had stronger decreases of βRa in 2012, but also stronger rebounds in 2013 and 2014 from the 2011 levels. The βRa in AGR-Sw, AGR-Pr and CRP-C fell back in 2014. The shifts of the LR20Ra varied in 2012. Some sites increased while some sites decreased. However, all of them increased in 2013, the first year after drought. The magnitudes of increases of the LR20 of Ra varied. Some sites fell back in 2014 while others still increased (Fig. 4.5 (A)). Unlike Ra, the β and the LR20 of Rh told very different stories. The β of Rh in all sites increased and the LR20 of Rh decreased in 2012, although the increasing magnitudes of β in CRPSw and CRP-Pr—the most dry sites (Fig. 3.1 (B))—were very small. The levels of β and LR20 of Rh did not change much after 2012. Some sites had slightly increasing β and LR20 while some β and LR20 rates fluctuated near the 2012 levels without returning to the 2011 levels (Fig. 4.5 (B)). It had either required more time to recover or it had reached a new dynamic equilibrium after the 2012 drought. 128 (A) (B) Rs Rh Figure 4.3. The distributions of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) across years. The clouds show β and LR20 of Rs (A) and Rh (B), which were predicted by Bayesian models. Each cloud contained 10,000 predictions and presented the values of β and LR20 for each site in each year. The locations of green, red, blue, and purple dots represent the shifts from 2011 to 2014, respectively. 129 0.08 AGR-C AGR-Sw AGR-Pr 2011 Ra 2012 Ra 0.06 2013 Ra 2014 Ra β 0.04 2011 Rh 2012 Rh 0.02 2013 Rh 2014 Rh 0 -0.02 0.08 CRP-C CRP-Sw CRP-Pr Ref 0.06 β 0.04 0.02 0 0 0.5 1.0 LR20 1.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 0 LR20 0.5 1.0 LR20 1.5 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 LR20 -0.02 Figure 4.4. The inter-annual shifts of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) of Ra and Rh for each site across all years. The solid dots and lines represent β and LR20 of Ra while the empty circles and dash lines show those of Rh. The green, red, blue, and purple colors represent 2011–2014, respectively. 130 (A) 0.08 0.06 CRP-C Ra CRP-C Rh AGR-C Ra AGR-C Rh C CRP-Sw Ra CRP-Sw Rh AGR-Sw Ra AGR-Sw Rh CRP-Pr Ra CRP-Pr Rh AGR-Pr Ra AGR-Pr Rh Pr Ref Ra Ref Rh Sw 0.04 0.02 0 β 0.08 0.06 Ref 0.04 0.02 0 2011 2012 2013 2011 2014 2012 2013 2014 year (B) 1.2 CRP-C Ra CRP-C Rh AGR-C Ra AGR-C Rh C CRP-Sw Ra CRP-Sw Rh AGR-Sw Ra AGR-Sw Rh Pr Ref Ra Ref Rh Sw 0.8 0.4 0 -0.4 LR20 1.2 CRP-Pr Ra CRP-Pr Rh AGR-Pr Ra AGR-Pr Rh Ref 0.8 0.4 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 -0.4 year Figure 4.5. The inter-annual shifts of the log10 soil respiration temperature sensitivities (β) and the log10 soil respiration rates at 20 °C (LR20) of Ra and Rh for different crops and land use histories across all years. The β (A) and LR20 (B) present different crops. The solid dots and lines display Ra, while the empty circles and dashed lines show Rh. 131 4.4 DISCUSSION 4.4.1 The distribution of β and LR20 across CROP and LUH combinations The annual soil respiration rates varied widely across treatments, as shown in Chapter 2 (Fig. 2.5). The Ref field had the highest LR20, followed in sequence by Pr, Sw, and C (Fig. 4.2). The effect of LUH is similar. Ref had the highest LR20, followed in sequence by CRP and AGR (Fig. 4.2). When observing the distribution of the clouds of estimates on the LR20-β plots, it is evident that the same CROP (with different LUH) has similar R-T relationship in Rs while the same LUH (with different CROP) has similar R-T relationship in Rh. The results support my hypothesis that CROP affects Ra more because its substrate supply is mainly regulated by photosynthesis and the carbon allocation of plants. On the other hand, LUH affects Rh by controlling the characteristics and processes in soil. 4.4.2 The stability of β and LR20 in the severe spring-summer drought in the Ref field Ref had the smallest shift in both β and LR20 of Rs across all sites inter-annually. This implies that the soil-root system in Ref was the most resistant to perturbation out of all the sites, even with the severe drought in 2012. However, for Rh, the LR20 decreased and β increased enormously due to the drought (Fig. 4.4). Brome grass may have been able to take up water from deeper soil horizons and maintain its basic metabolism during the drought, whereas the soil microbial activities were impacted in the upper 10 cm soil layer. The βRh in 2013 and 2014 dropped a little, but values were still higher than that in 2011. The LR20Rh values were very low in 2013 and 2014. The Ref field exhibited a very different Rh-Ts relationship between 2011 and the later three years. 132 4.4.3 Different responses of β-LR20 on Rs and Rh after severe spring-summer drought On the inter-annual scale, the effects of a disturbance on an ecosystem may be observed as changes in the behavior of the ecosystem functions immediately (the same year) and in the recovery years (the following years) (Holling, 1973; Holling, 1996; Smith, 2011). The climate patterns I observed—wet-hot, dry-hot, wet-cool and wet-cool in the continuing four growing seasons (2011-2014)—gave me an opportunity to test the short- and long-term responses of the R-Ts relationship to a severe spring-summer drought. I found that the two components, Ra and Rh, had different responses to the drought (Figs. 4.5 (A) & (B)). 4.4.3.1 The resistance of Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships to the drought In the drought year, all βRa decreased while βRh increased regardless of the fact that LR20 responses varied (Fig. 4.4 & Fig. 4.5). The opposite responses of Ra and Rh temperature sensitivities were due to their own distinctive mechanisms. Most studies have indicated that the temperature sensitivity of soil CO2 efflux is depressed under low water moisture (Savage & Davidson, 2001; Jassal et al., 2008; Harper et al., 2005). My results of Ra supported the conclusion of these studies. Surprisingly, βRh increased in all sites in 2012 compared to 2011 (the red dashed lines in Fig. 4.4; Fig. 4.5 (A)) when the water stress was strong. The climate pattern—early onset and a warm spring with spring-summer drought in 2012—seemed to depress all Rh and increase temperature sensitivity. I noted a similar phenomenon in the Rh-Ts relationship in Chapter 2. Most Q10 of Rh in 2012 was higher than those in 2011 (Supplement 2-3). My results of Rh were opposite to most studies, which claimed that the temperature sensitivity of Rh would decrease when soil moisture is low in mesic ecosystems (Suseela et al., 2012; Wang et al., 2014; Sampson et al., 2007; Jassal et al., 2008; Manzoni et al., 2012; Rey et al., 2002). In contrast, the driest 133 experimental sites (i.e., CRP-Sw and CRP-Pr) had lower magnitudes of increasing βRh in 2012 than other sites. The effects of water stress on log10 Rh temperature sensitivity within 2012 supported the previous studies that also claimed water deficit reduces Rh temperature sensitivity. The contrast between the intra-annual (among sites) and inter-annual (2011 vs. 2012) comparisons may be due to other causes. Heterotrophic soil respiration results from the decomposition of soil organic matter by soil microbes. Decomposition is a biochemical reaction and is assumed to have an exponential relationship with temperature (Lloyd & Taylor, 1994; van’t Hoff, 1885). The decomposition rate and its temperature sensitivity were regulated by its intrinsic kinetic properties and environmental constraints (Davidson et al., 2006). The former mainly depends on the complexity of carbon compounds (i.e., labile compounds and recalcitrant compounds), the concentration of substrates, the physical protection (i.e., soil aggregates) and the chemical protection (i.e., the absorption of carbon compounds into mineral surface by chemical bonds) (Davidson et al., 2006). The latter restrains intrinsic temperature sensitivity of Rh and represents the apparent temperature sensitivity (Suseela et al., 2012) and may be related to surrounding temperature, water availability (Schimel et al., 1994; Ise & Moorcroft, 2006), soil microbial community structure (Sheik et al., 2011; Zhou et al., 2014) and the affinities of the enzymes for the substrates (Davidson et al., 2006). The decrease of Rh in all sites in 2012 was more possibly due to the change in the soil microbial community structure or their activities since soil physical and chemical properties are less likely to change much in the short-term in no-till fields. In 2012, not only was there higher βRh but also lower “α”, log10 Rh at 0 °C and LR20Rh (Eq. 4-5) compared to 2011. The high βRh and low α and LR20Rh means that the overall Rh in 2012 was lower than those in 2011, regardless of temperature. The impact of water stress on the 134 Rh-Ts relationship may result from the changes in the soil microbial community structure that shifted their intrinsic temperature sensitivity. Lipson et al. (2002) found that soil microbial community structure responded to the seasonal variation of climate and substrate supply and exhibited different sensitivities to temperature. It is likely that severe water stress depressed most species in the soil microbial community, but that some drought-tolerant and high temperaturesensitive species became dominant. The drought-tolerant species became dominated and thus displayed high Rh temperature sensitivity when the water stress had been mitigated. The effect of severe drought may change soil microbial community structure (Chen et al., 2007) or only alter the strength of their activities without significant shifts in their community structure (Castro et al., 2010). For example, Zhou et al. (2014) reported an increase in the fungi to bacteria ratio (F:B ratio) during drought, since fungi have hyphae, that help them to move, colonize and decompose surface litter, and a cellular wall, containing melanin and chitin that leave them unaffected by drought (Orchard & Cook, 1983; Denef et al., 2001). Zhou et al. (2014) also found that the F:B ratio was tightly correlated with Q10 of Rh (r=0.617, p=0.014). Bradford et al. (2008) reported that the changes of soil microbial community composition may affect the ecosystem processes but that the mechanisms were yet to be confirmed. However, some opposite studies reported no significant changes in the F:B ratio during droughts (Castro et al., 2010). More research is needed to clarify the mechanisms of the responses of soil microbial decomposers to drought. 4.4.3.2 The changes of Rs-Ts and Rh-Ts relationships in the recovery years In 2013 and 2014, the βs were higher than those in 2011, although the Ref site and two corn sites had smaller differences compared to 2011 (Fig. 4.4). The higher differences of βRh between 2014 and 2011 in Sw and Pr sites represent the shift in the soil microbial community structure. Differences of βRa, which is the combinations of βRs and βRh, exhibit the well- 135 established root systems in perennials. The trajectories of LR20 in Rh and Ra were different. Most LR20 of Ra in 2014 had rebounded to the levels of LR20 in 2011, as some LR20 (such as Prairie LR20) were even higher (Fig. 4.4). The well-established root system stimulated not only β but also LR20 in perennial cropping systems. LR20 of Rh in all sites in 2014 were still far less than those in 2011. The soil microbial community may be dominated by drought-tolerant, high temperature-sensitive species that result in lower decomposition rates. However, we need more studies of the soil microbial community structure and its response to changes in precipitation patterns, and how those responses affect biogeochemical cycles. 4.4.3.3 The systematic responses of the R-T relationship to the severe drought After a two-year recovery, I observed that the spring-summer severe drought depressed both Ra and Rh in the drought year and recovered in the following years. However, different CROP and LUH had different levels of resistance and speed to recovery, implying perennial crops acclimated severe drought while annual crops did not. The high resistance of the Ref field to severe drought revealed that the climax community of perennial crops may have a wellestablished root-soil microbial cooperation system, which resists the severe drought well. In addition, the opposite response of Ra- and Rh-Ts relationships to drought implies there were shifts in soil microbial activities in response to the changes in soil temperature. The different location of the clouds on the βRh–LR20 biplots between 2011 and 2012-2014 revealed that the structure of soil microbial community might change and may shift into a new state. 136 4.5 CONCLUSIONS The increasing frequencies, intensity and amplitude of climate extremes, such as heat wave, periods of heavy rains and severe drought, is already apparent and is expected in the future (IPCC, 2013; Andresen et al., 2013; Schar et al., 2004). Many studies explored the impacts of increasing ECEs on individual/population mortality and fitness, community structure, ecological processes and ecosystem functions (Thibault and Brown, 2008; MacGillivray et al., 1995; Haddad et al., 2002; Ciais et al., 2005). The responses of ecosystems to these ECEs and their sensitivities varied widely due to different underlying mechanisms and thresholds in different ecosystems and climate regimes (Smith, 2011). However, the societal and ecological impacts of these increasing climatic extremes still need more research to clarify the underlying mechanisms and the consequences (Smith, 2011; Ciais et al., 2005). Considering both the immediate resistance and prolonged recovery after a severe drought underneath different crop types and land use histories helps us better understand the different responses of roots and soil microbes to severe drought, and ultimately how drought affects the behaviors of Ra and Rh. Perennial crops have the potential to acclimate to severe drought via its dense root system (and the associated microbial community) and shift in plant composition. The different plant composition at different successional stages may have different resistance and recovery abilities in response to severe drought. The annual crops have a weaker ability to buffer the impact of severe drought on soil respiration and are more vulnerable to severe drought, since they do not have a root system like the perennials. The shifts of LR20 and β of Ra after the severe drought, thus, were larger, especially under high soil nutrient content. Perennial crops have a stronger ability than annual crops to buffer the perturbation of occasional severe drought. The ability of buffering increased through the succesional stages 137 when its dense root system developed. The perennial crop system, can not only reduce the input of fertilizer and reduce soil erosion and nutrient leaching, but can also reduce the droughtinduced fluctuation of soil respiration. I will discuss the impacts of drought on NEE, GPP and Reco and the difference responses of these major carbon fluxes facing severe drought in Chapter 5. 138 APPENDIX 139 Table S.4.1. The root contribution of soil respiration (RC) for each site in each year. The RCs (Ra/Rs ratio) were calculated from the TWV model estimates in chapter 2. The data of Ra and Rs were grouped in pairs into each site in each year for the annual RC. CROP LUH C Sw Pr Ref year 2011 2012 2013 2014 CRP 0.3195±0.0513 0.3171±0.0449 0.3065±0.0526 0.3310±0.0633 AGR 0.4650±0.0983 0.4342±0.0611 0.4902±0.1159 0.5125±0.1282 CRP 0.4678±0.0826 0.5657±0.1712 0.4563±0.0772 0.4700±0.0974 AGR 0.4512±0.1379 0.3452±0.2438 0.4331±0.1427 0.4399±0.1724 CRP 0.4477±0.0596 0.2893±0.1770 0.3864±0.1200 0.4057±0.0879 AGR 0.5135±0.0339 0.5121±0.0430 0.5247±0.0475 0.5321±0.0376 0.5639±0.0363 0.5610±0.0410 0.5375±0.0559 0.5411±0.0559 140 LITERATURE CITED 141 LITERATURE CITED Bradford, M.A., Davies, C.A., Frey, S.D., Maddox, T.R., Melillo, J.M., Mohan, J.E., Reynolds, J.F., Treseder, K.K., Wallenstein, M.D., 2008. Thermal adaptation of soil microbial respiration to elevated temperature. Ecology Letters, 11, 1316–1327. Castro, H.F., Classen, A.T., Austin, E.E., Norby, R.J., Schadt, C.W., 2010. Soil microbial community responses to multiple experimental climate change drivers. Applied and Environmental Microbiology, 76(4), 999-1007. 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Zhou, W., Hui, D., Shen, W., 2014. Effects of soil moisture on the temperautre sensitivity of soil heterotrophic respiration: A laboratory incubation study. PLoS One, 9(3), e92531. 145 CHAPTER 5 THE RESPONSE OF NET ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE (NEE) OF CARBON DIOXIDE AND ITS PARTITIONING TO THE BIOPHYSICAL VARIABLES ABSTRACT The dynamics of carbon dioxide net ecosystem exchange (NEE), which is determined by gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), decides the direction and amount of carbon flux between ecosystems and the atmosphere. The sum of regional carbon fluxes contributes to global atmospheric CO2 balances and decides the rate of atmospheric CO2 increase. Managed ecosystems, including grasslands and croplands, can be managed to sequester carbon dioxide in soil carbon pools. The understanding of the seasonality of GPP and Reco and how they respond to climate events and human activities is critical to mitigate global climate change. Major carbon processes, GPP and Reco, have different dominant drivers and these drivers have different seasonal patterns. The asynchronous seasonality of GPP and Reco determine the carbon fluxes between the ecosystem and the atmosphere; however, crop type and soil nutrient content also play important roles. My results revealed that the different phenology of annual and perennial crops can affect carbon sequestration capacity according to the differences in the length of the growing season. Moreover, the different phenology between annual and perennial crops may affect crop tolerance to different seasonal patterns of climate events. The early onset of the growing season in perennial crop ecosystems heightens the risk of severe the spring and summer drought. In contrast, the delay of a regular summer water deficit may dramatically increase carbon sequestration ability. Changing land use from undisturbed conservation lands to corn may release a huge amount of carbon via ecosystem respiration, while the perennial crops would be better able to maintain the carbon. 146 5.1 INTRODUCTION Regional net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide, defined by the difference between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco), determines global carbon cycling. However, the rules of biotic and abiotic reactions on NEE have complicated and uncertain interactions and feedbacks across different climate regions and different biomes. The understanding of how biophysical variables and their interactions influence GPP and Reco is crucial to estimating the contribution that biofuel cropping ecosystems have on future climate GHG mitigation in different climate scenarios. Eddy-covariance and chamber-based approaches have been widely used in the monitoring ecosystem CO2 exchange across different regions with different climate regimes and ecosystems. However, compared to the large number of NEE studies on forests, croplands have received far less attention even though they may have important contributions to regional carbon budgets, especially in mid-latitude areas (Soegaard et al., 2003). This kind of managed ecosystem has large variation on its functions, such as carbon sequestration, since agricultural practices (i.e., fertilization, plantation, harvest, irrigation and tillage) determine important ecosystem structure and biogeochemical processes, such as soil nitrogen content, the type of crops, the land cover and the water management, which in turn determine the carbon, nitrogen, water and energy cycles of croplands (Schimel et al., 2000). Research on managed grasslands and croplands can contribute to how we understand the responses of carbon fluxes and how to determine when an ecosystem converts between a carbon source and sink. NEE of CO2 in an ecosystem depends on the interplay of gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco). The GPP, determined by photosynthetic rate, is mainly controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) when temperature and water are 147 adequate. Light intensity and patterns determine GPP and alter daytime NEE in most ecosystems. Ecosystem respiration rates are exponentially correlated to temperature and regulate nighttime NEE. Temporal variations in two physical variables, PAR and temperature, alter the variation of GPP and Reco and the NEE (Falge et al., 2002; Gilmanov et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2015). Asynchrony of light and temperature seasonal variations, combined with the plant’s phenology and the activity fluctuation of soil microbial activity, determine the annual NEE of grasslands and croplands. In this chapter, I will focus on how the seasonal variations of GPP and Reco affect the annual NEE and the seasonality of NEE across different crop types and land use histories, especially after the impact of severe drought. I hypothesized that annual and perennial crops have different seasonal patterns and different annual NEE due to their different phenology and the length of growing season. I also expected that annual and perennial crops have different magnitudes of NEE increases in the growing season’s drought period and different recovery speeds after severe drought, due to different water use efficiencies and drought-adaptation ability. I will also discuss the Rs:Reco ratio in different crop types after land use change. I assumed that the Rs:Reco ratio in perennial croplands would increase from 2011 to 2014 due to root systems development. The Rs:Reco ratio in Ref and corn fields will not change significantly since Ref fields have had a well-established root system and corn does not have a perennial root system. 148 5.2 METHODS 5.2.1 Study site My experimental sites are located in the Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center scale-up fields of the Kellogg Biological Station (KBS, 42°40’N, 85°40’W), and are established in association with KBS Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER). The sites are located in south Michigan, USA (Fig. 1.5). The climate is humid continental (warm summer) climate (Dfa) (Peel et al., 2007). The mean annual air temperature and mean annual precipitation at KBS are 10.1 °C and 1005 mm yr-1 (1981-2010), respectively (Robertson & Hamilton, 2015). 5.2.2 Experimental design and schedule Seven experimental plots were located at two locations with their own land use histories (LUHs): (1) Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) grasslands at Marshall Farm, and (2) cornsoybean rotation agricultural fields (AGR) at Lux Arbor Reserve. The CRP sites had been in a monoculture of smooth brome grass (Bromus inermis Leyss) since 1987, while the AGR fields had been under conventional corn-soybean rotation cultivation for several decades (Fig. 1.6). The soil texture at all sites is sandy loam, except for a sandy clay loam at one field. However, soil carbon and nitrogen contents at the CRP sites were significantly higher than those at the AGR sites before the land conversions (Table 1.1). The experiment was conducted at seven scale-up fields ranging in size from 9 to 17 hectares. Four fields are located in Marshall Farm (i.e., CRP sites) and three in Lux Arbor Reserve (i.e., AGR sites). All sites, except the reference site (Ref), were sprayed with herbicide at the end of 2008 to prepare the lands for soybean planting in 2009. The CRP and AGR sites were then cultivated with either continuous corn (Zea mays, Dekalb DK-52), switchgrass 149 (Panicum virgatum), or a mixture of native prairie grasses that was dominated by Canada wild rye (Elymus Canadensis), little bluestem (Schizachyrium scoparium), Indian grass (Sorghastrum nutans), big bluestem (Andropogon gerardii), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) since 2010. One CRP grassland, dominated by brome grass, was not disturbed and retained as the historical reference site (Gelfand et al., 2011; Zenone et al., 2011; Deal et al., 2013; Zenone et al., 2013). I used an experimental code for these sites by abbreviating them as “LUH-CROP”. CRP-C, CRPSw and CRP-Pr represent the CRP sites that were converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture respectively, while AGR-C, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr are AGR farms converted to corn, switchgrass and prairie mixture. In 2010, when the crops were established, the perennial crops (switchgrass and prairie) were accompanied by oats as nurse crop with and without fertilization, respectively (Fig. 1.6). Switchgrass fields were applied 55 kg N ha-1 (28% liquid urea ammonium nitrate) on DOY 172. No other management practices were applied beyond harvesting at the end of each growing season. No-till continuous corn was seeded in mid-May with a one-time herbicide mix (Lumax, Atrazine 4L, Honcho Plus and (NH4)2SO4). Phosphorus, potassium (P2O5 + K2O, 168.5 kg ha-1 on DOY 95, 2010) and nitrogen fertilizers (112 kg N ha-1 on DOY 165 & 160 in AGR-C and CRP-C, respectively) were applied in 2010. Phosphorus, potassium (P2O5 + K2O, 294 kg ha-1 on DOY 104, 2011) and nitrogen fertilizers (liquid nitrogen168 kg N ha-1 on DOY 172, 2011) were applied (Zenone et al., 2013). 5.2.3 The calculations of NEE, GPP and Reco by eddy-covariance approach 5.2.3.1 The measurements of eddy-covariance and microclimatic data One open-path eddy-covariance (EC) system was established in each site (Figs. 1.5 & 5.1) at the end of 2008 before land use change (2009) to measure the carbon, water and energy 150 fluxes. Carbon dioxide, water vapor concentration and three-dimensional wind speed were recorded for the calculation of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and water vapor between the ecosystems and the atmosphere. The CO2 and water vapor concentrations were measured by a LI-7500 open-path infrared gas absorption analyzer (IRGA, LI-COR Biosciences, Lincoln, NE). The three-dimensional wind speed was measured by a CSAT3 anemometer (Campbell Scientific Inc. (CSI), Logan, UT). Inbound (top-down) and the outbound (bottom-up) short- and long-wave radiation were measured by a CNR1 radiometer (Kipp & Zonen, Delft, The Netherlands), while the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was measured by a LI-190SB (LI-COR Biosciences). Air temperature (Ta) and relative humidity (RH) were recorded by a HMP45C (CSI). Most of the above instruments were mounted at about 1.5 m above the canopy surface. Soil temperature (Ts at 2, 5, and 10 cm depths belowground) and soil water content (0-30 cm depth VWC) were measured by CS107 temperature probes (CSI) and a CS616 Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR) probe (CSI), respectively. Three HFT3 flux plates (CSI) were placed randomly 2 cm below the soil surface to measure soil heat flux. A Campbell CR5000 datalogger (CSI) was used to collect the eddy-covariance (10 Hz) and microclimatic (30 min) data (Fig. 5.1). 151 Figure 5.1. Eddy-covariance tower with instruments for carbon, water and energy cycle monitoring. The eddy-covariance (EC) tower was established in late 2008 to measure high frequency CO2 and water vapor concentration and 3D wind velocity (u). It also records incoming and reflecting long- and short-wave radiation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), soil temperature (Ts), soil water moisture (VWC) and soil heat storage. Most aboveground instruments were mounted 1.5 m above the canopy surface. 5.2.3.2 Data processing and gap-filling The eddy-covariance data were processed by the EdiRe software (University of Edinburgh, UK). Out-of-range data (i.e., spikes greater than four standard deviations), which may have been generated by bad weather or instrument failure, as well as time lags between CO2 and water vapor concentrations and the vertical wind speed were removed (McMillen, 1988). The CO2 and H2O fluxes were adjusted for frequency response and air density fluctuations (Webb et al., 1980), including the warming of the IRGA (Burba et al., 2008). Coordinate rotation was applied to the wind components using planar fit rotation (Wilezak et al., 2001). The high frequency data were processed in 30-minute blocks averages without detrending (Moncrieff 152 et al., 2004). The missing or poor quality data were replaced based on the standardized FLUXNET gap-filling approach (Reichstein et al., 2005, http://www.bgcjena.mpg.de/~MDIwork/eddyproc/). More details of the data processing can be found in Abraha et al. (2015). 5.2.3.3 Estimation of NEE, GPP and Reco The net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2, defined by the net CO2 exchange between an ecosystem and the atmosphere, is the difference between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) (Eq. 5-1; Chapin et al., 2006): 𝑁𝐸𝐸 = 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 − 𝐺𝑃𝑃 Eq. 5-1 where GPP and Reco are the absolute amounts of carbon captured and lost from the ecosystem to the atmosphere. The values of nighttime NEE were recognized as Reco since there is no photosynthesis at night. An exponential model based on the correlation between Reco and air temperature was developed, and daytime Reco was adjusted by the Reco –Ta model. The GPP then calculated the difference between daytime NEE and the adjusted daytime Reco (Reco ’). 𝐺𝑃𝑃 = 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 ′ − 𝑁𝐸𝐸 Eq. 5-2 Thirty-minute GPP, Reco and NEE were recorded and the daily GPP, Reco and NEE were calculated for later analysis. 5.2.4 Estimation of Rs’, Ra’ and Rh’ 5.2.4.1 The TWV model and its variables The adjusted 30-minute Rs (Rs’) were estimated by the TWV model developed in Chapter 2 (Eq. 2-2 & Supplement 2-4). The 30-minute soil temperature (Ts) data were measured at each plot (four plots in each site) by a HOBO datalogger (Onset Computer Co., Bourne, MA) with 153 two thermal couples. Thirty-minute soil water content (VWC) data were recorded at 0-30 cm depth by a TDR at each site’s eddy-covariance tower. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data from the MODIS satellite were downloaded from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics (ORNL DAAC, http://daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/modis.shtml; details can be found in the methods section of Chapter 2). 5.2.4.2 Data processing and gap filling Out-of-range data of Ts, which was mainly generated by failured thermocouples, HOBO datalogers or power outages, includes extremely high or low values, abnormal jumpy data (>5C changes between two measurements) and high magnitudes of fluctuation. The out-of-range data were recognized and removed manually. The whole data set in a measured period (weeks to months) may be removed if most of data of that sensor was abnormal. The gap-filling of data followed different methods depending on its length. The short-term (hours) gaps were replaced based on the normal data before and after the gap with the following equation: 𝑇𝑠 𝑖 = 𝑇𝑠 𝑖−1 + 𝑇𝑠 𝑛+1 −𝑇𝑠 0 Eq. 5-3 𝑛+1 where 𝑇𝑠 𝑖 was the ith cell of the gap and n was the number of the gap cells. The 𝑇𝑠 0 was the last normal datum before the gap, while 𝑇𝑠 𝑛+1 was the first normal datum after the gap. The i were calculated from 1 to n. The long-term (days) gaps were filled based on the fluctuation trend at the nearest sensor, either within the same site or between sites. The calculation followed the equation 5-3: 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 = 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 𝑖 𝑖−1 + (𝑇𝑠 𝑏 − 𝑇𝑠 𝑏 𝑖 𝑖−1 ) Eq. 5-4 154 where 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 was the ith cell of the gap and 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 𝑖 was the (i-1)th cell in the thermal couple “a”, 𝑖−1 which contained the data gap. The 𝑇𝑠 𝑏 and 𝑇𝑠 𝑏 𝑖 synchronized to 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 and 𝑇𝑠 𝑎 𝑖 𝑖−1 𝑖−1 were the ith cell and the (i-1)th cell that , respectively, in the nearest thermal couple “b”. Equation 5-4 can mimic the diurnal temperature fluctuations at local scale. The post-processing of VWC was similar to Ts. The missing data due to the failure of the CR5000 datalogger were filled depending on the length of gaps. The VWC data were filled based on Eq. 5-3 and Eq. 5-4. The quality of EVI data was good, although there were some one-cell gaps due to continuous 16-day cloudy periods. The gaps were filled by the average of the EVI values immediately before and after the gap. The 30-minute Rs’ values were estimated based on the TWV model and the 30-minute Ts, VWC and EVI data. The daily average Rs’ were calculated for later statistical analysis and chart drawing. 5.2.4.3 The components of ecosystem respiration and their calculation Ecosystem respiration can be partitioned into aboveground (Rabove) and belowground (soil respiration; Rs): 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 = 𝑅𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒 + 𝑅𝑠 Eq. 5-5 The aboveground and belowground contributions to the ecosystem respiration depend on the carbon allocation of plants, the phenology and its different responses and time lags to changes in environmental conditions. The 30-minute Rs’ data were thereafter combined with NEE, GPP and Reco data. The aboveground respiration (Rabove) was calculated by the difference of Reco and Rs. 155 𝑅𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑣𝑒 = 𝑅𝑒𝑐𝑜 −𝑅𝑠 ′ Eq. 5-6 The chronological variations of daily mean NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs were plotted to observed inter- and intra-annual fluctuations, response to climate patterns and their resistance and recovery after a severe drought. There are still some long-term missing data of Rs’ since the late start of the first year (21 May 2011) and early stop of the second year summer (20 August 2012) measurements of Ts. The mid-growing season (21 May to 20 August) data were selected to calculate the Reco:GPP ratio, Rs’:GPP and Rs’:Reco ratio since only this period had data with all components of the carbon cycle in all years. The ratios across years were compared by one-way ANOVA and the Tukey’s HSD test. 5.3 RESULTS 5.3.1 The seasonal variations of NEE, GPP, Reco and Rs’ The variations of the components of carbon cycle, including NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs’, were presented in Fig. 5.2. The seasonality of NEE, which is the difference between GPP and Reco, was affected by GPP, Reco and the interplay between the two. They always showed hump-shaped curves that increased in spring with the growth of plants and decreased with the senescence or harvest of the plants. However, annual and perennial crops had different lengths of photosynthetic active periods and influenced the seasonal patterns of NEE. The NEE in corn fields started to decrease in mid-June, around two weeks after the corn was planted. Theoretically, the decreases of NEE were determined by the variations of Reco and GPP. The onset of the Reco active period was in April depending on the temperature. The date of GPP increase started after the emergence of corn in late May to early June. The values of NEE were positive (carbon source) before mid-June when Reco > GPP. The NEE then became negative 156 and decreased sharply due to the dramatic increase of GPP in late June, whereas the increase of Reco was less over the same period. The NEE attained its minimum (negative value, carbon sink) in mid-July before the soil water deficit became a limiting factor (Figs. 5.2 (A) & (B); Fig. 3.1 (B)) in 2011, 2013 and 2014. The decrease of the NEE values was slower in 2012 due to the poor growth of corn in July (low NDVI & EVI, Fig. 3.1 (C)). Regardless of year, a remarkable decrease in the absolute NEE value and low VWC occurred in phase, although it occurred at different times in different years. The regular concaves of absolute NEE values were due to the decreases of both GPP and Reco due to water deficit. For example, the concave happened in late June in 2011, 2012 and 2013 and in mid-August in 2014 (Figs. 5.2 & 3.1 (B)). The water deficitderived low values of NEE, GPP and Reco in the middle of the growing season (GS) separated the hump-shaped seasonal curves into two periods: early GS and late GS. The seasonality of Rs’ highly coincided with GPP and Reco but generally had smaller amplitude. Corn usually had smaller minimum NEE with large maximum GPP comparing to other crops (Table 5.1), especially the CRP-C field. The minimum GPP in CRP-C was 91.86 g CO2 m2 d-1 occurring in 2014. It had a shorter growing season (Fig. 5.2) with higher peaks of GPP in the late GS. Like the seasonality of Rs described in Chapter 3, perennial and annual crops had different onset dates of active NEE, GPP and Reco. In perennial croplands, the onsets of GPP and Reco active periods, depending on the date of spring warming, were in phase but different amount of increase. The date when the ecosystem converted from a carbon source (positive NEE) to a sink (negative NEE) were several weeks after the onsets of GPP and Reco active periods, ranging from late March (2012) to late May (2014) when the amount of GPP was higher than Reco. Perennial crops and annual crops have different seasonal patterns of NEE due to their different 157 phenology and length of growing season. In spring (April – May), perennial crop’s NEE is small while GPP is higher than Reco (Figs. 5.2 (C)-(G)). The NEE in corn fields was high since we planted corn in late May, thus April-May NEE was high (Figs. 5.2 (A)-(B)). The June-July NEE in corn fields was lower than that in perennial croplands, since there was a rapid corn growth after it emerged. The high GPP in corn ecosystems maintained itself until the late summer water deficit, which occurred in late July in 2011-2013 and mid-August in 2014. In sum, perennial crops have lower NEE early on (April-July) with a longer GS overall, while annual crops have lower NEE mid-GS (June-July). Table 5.1. The minimum NEE, maximum GPP and maximum Reco among sites across years. The unit is g CO2 m-2d-1. Negative NEE means carbon flow from the atmosphere to the ecosystem (the ecosystem was carbon sink). CROP C Sw Pr Ref CROP C Sw Pr Ref 2011 LUH 2012 Min NEE Max GPP Max Reco Min NEE Max GPP Max Reco CRP -44.89 83.28 58.2 -29.55 59.92 39.28 AGR -38.01 67.23 32.81 -24.16 54.14 33.25 CRP -22.24 47.57 33.8 -22.87 48.48 34.44 AGR -25.16 48.06 37.18 -25.33 54.73 35.13 CRP -19.92 48.27 31.27 -19.56 45.28 33.8 AGR -12.59 38.53 27.77 -41.09 70.03 40.87 CRP -32.86 61.2 56.08 -25.5 57.45 40.93 2013 LUH 2014 Min NEE Max GPP Max Reco Min NEE Max GPP Max Reco CRP -46.6 83.42 56.24 -57.21 91.86 46.48 AGR -45.82 83.06 51.61 -62.49 75.87 32.82 CRP -37.45 73.75 37.06 -46.81 77.62 40.08 AGR -42.72 69.05 42.15 -35.25 62.36 33.93 CRP -24.38 53.78 38.97 -34.97 65.96 37.07 AGR -41.09 70.03 40.87 -43.65 69.55 33 CRP -30.21 59.22 41.55 -23.79 45.24 37.42 158 25 25 NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs (A) CRP-C NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 55 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N D Month -5 -5 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10 -10 -15 -15 25 25 (B) AGR-C NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 55 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F Month -5 -5 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10 -10 -15 -15 Figure 5.2. The seasonal and interannual variations of daily NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs among sites during 2011-2014. Grey lines indicate net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2. The negative NEE means a carbon sinks. Red dotted lines show gross primary production (GPP) while black solid lines display ecosystem respiration (Reco). Green and brown lines present the aboveground (Rabove) and belowground (Rs) respiration. (A) CRP-C; (B) AGR-C; (C) CRP-Sw; (D) AGR-Sw; (E) CRP-Pr; (F) AGR-Pr; and (G) Ref. 159 Figure 5.2. (cont’d) 25 25 NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs (C) CRP-Sw 20 NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 15 15 10 10 5 0 -5 5 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D Month -5 -10 F 2011 2012 2013 2014 -10 -15 -15 25 25 (D) AGR-Sw NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M Month -5 -5 -10 -10 2011 2012 2013 -15 -15 160 2014 J J A S O N D Figure 5.2. (cont’d) 25 25 (E) CRP-Pr NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 55 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D M A M J J A S O N D Month -5 -5 2011 -10 -10 2012 2013 2014 -15 -15 25 (F) AGR-Pr NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 55 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F Month -5 -5 -10 -10 2011 2012 2013 -15 -15 161 2014 Figure 5.2. (cont’d) 25 25 (G) Ref NEE GPP Reco Rabove Rs NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove & Rs (µmol s-1m-2) 20 20 15 15 10 10 55 00 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F Month -5 -5 -10 -10 2011 2012 2013 -15 -15 162 2014 M A M J J A S O N D 5.3.2 The mid-growing season NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs among CROP and LUH Generally, perennial croplands had lower NEE (higher carbon sequestration rates) due to higher GPP with lower Reco (Figs. 5.3 (A)-(C)). The NEE increased in the order Sw ~ Pr < C < Ref except during the drought year (2012) when GPP and Reco both showed no differences between annual and perennial crops. Compared NEE across years, the Ref site had low NEE since it had a high GPP in 2011. The value of NEE, on the contrary, became the highest among all sites 2012 – 2014 due to its low GPP. In the experimental perennial crops (Sw and Pr), the CRP-Pr had highest NEE and the lowest GPP out of any other perennial crops in 2012 and 2013. Its Reco did not show any significant difference from other perennial crops. The CRP-Sw had a higher GPP and Reco among perennial crops in non-drought years. Corn always had higher temporal variations of NEE, GPP and Reco than any other crops in my analytical period (21 May – 20 August). 5.3.3 The mid-growing season Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH There is no significant difference in the Reco:GPP ratio among sites due to high temporal variation in the mid-GS. The within site variation was larger than the between-site variation (Fig. 5.3 (A)). The within-site temporal variation of Reco:GPP ratios can be very large or very small when GPP becomes small or large, but Reco has different responses or time lags. Unlike Reco:GPP ratio, Rs:Reco and Rs:GPP ratios have very different values between the undisturbed Ref site and other sites. Ref always had high values of Rs:Reco and Rs:GPP ratios, following CRP-Sw , AGR-Pr and others in order (Figs. 5.4 (B) & (C); Table 5.2). Annual crops always had lowest Rs:Reco and Rs:GPP ratios among all crops regardless of year. 163 (A) (B) (C) Figure 5.3. The mid-growing season (21 May-20 August) average NEE, GPP, Reco, Rabove and Rs for each of the four years. The boxplots show the quartiles, median values and outliers. The letters indicate the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. Different colors show different CROP (yellow: C; light green: Sw; bright green: Pr; forest green: Ref) while the dashed and transparent column shows different LUH (non-textured: CRP; dotted: AGR). The mid-growing season is identified as 21 May – 20 August due to the limitation of available data. 164 Figure 5.3. (cont’d) (D) 5.3.4 The shift of mid-growing season Reco:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios across years Most sites did not have substantial changes in the Reco:GPP ratio across years because the within-GS temporal variations of the Reco:GPP ratio were larger than between-GS variations. Only two sites had statistically significant shifts during the experimental period. The CRP-Sw showed a decrease 2012–2013 while CRP-Pr decreased 2011–2014. The decreases in the Reco:GPP ratio to less than one means the system converted from a carbon source to a carbon sink mid-GS. The Reco:GPP ratio in the Ref site in 2012 exceeded one, which means it was a carbon source in the drought year (Fig. 5.5 (A)). 165 (A) (B) (C) Figure 5.4. The Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH over four years. The boxplots show the quartiles, middle values and outliers. The letters indicate the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. Different colors show different CROP while different: yellow: corn; light green: Sw; bright green: Pr & dark green: Ref. Textured column show AGR LUH. The panels without letters indicate there is no significant difference among treatments ((A) 2012-2014). 166 Table 5.2. The Reco:GPP, Rs:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios among CROP and LUH over four years. CROP: current crop type; LUH: land use history; C: corn; Sw: switchgrass; Pr: prairie; Ref: reference; CRP: Conservation Reserve Program; AGR: corn: soybean conventional rotation agriculture; R: ecosystem respiration; GPP: gross primary production; R: soil respiration. The data presents mean ± 1 S.D. Reco:GPP CROP C Sw Pr LUH C Sw Pr C Sw Pr Ref 2013 2014 1.180 ± 1.181 0.851 ± 1.973 -3.090 ± 40.181 0.797 ± 2.006 AGR 0.972 ± 0.875 0.963 ± 2.175 1.377 ± 4.935 -0.081 ± 9.657 CRP 0.801 ± 0.247 0.897 ± 1.089 0.668 ± 0.357 0.610 ± 0.467 AGR 0.837 ± 0.348 0.900 ± 1.435 0.581 ± 0.188 0.719 ± 1.737 CRP 1.870 ± 5.993 1.305 ± 2.395 0.767 ± 0.275 0.613 ± 0.432 AGR 1.030 ± 0.498 0.605 ± 4.237 0.620 ± 0.259 0.587 ± 0.569 0.847 ± 0.282 1.142 ± 3.230 0.962 ± 0.468 0.851 ± 0.342 Rs:GPP LUH 2011 2012 2013 2014 CRP 0.243 ± 0.378 0.098 ± 0.380 -0.037 ± 1.933 0.140 ± 0.398 AGR 0.085 ± 0.103 0.059 ± 0.171 0.093 ± 0.220 0.071 ± 0.227 CRP 0.382 ± 0.209 0.406 ± 0.589 0.621 ± 0.378 0.510 ± 0.309 AGR 0.213 ± 0.129 0.233 ± 0.423 0.170 ± 0.067 0.324 ± 0.721 CRP 0.321 ± 1.137 0.199 ± 0.240 0.265 ± 0.174 0.179 ± 0.174 AGR 0.354 ± 0.184 0.096 ± 1.262 0.419 ± 0.232 0.465 ± 0.502 0.762 ± 0.397 1.026 ± 1.289 0.746 ± 0.325 0.881 ± 0.321 Ref CROP 2012 CRP Ref CROP 2011 Rs:Reco LUH 2011 2012 2013 2014 CRP 0.191 ± 0.085 0.130 ± 0.052 0.159 ± 0.053 0.270 ± 0.160 AGR 0.089 ± 0.080 0.049 ± 0.033 0.088 ± 0.033 0.350 ± 0.542 CRP 0.491 ± 0.249 0.524 ± 0.429 0.947 ± 0.429 0.894 ± 0.307 AGR 0.250 ± 0.095 0.270 ± 0.134 0.294 ± 0.080 0.470 ± 0.152 CRP 0.198 ± 0.110 0.209 ± 0.205 0.377 ± 0.283 0.368 ± 0.377 AGR 0.354 ± ± 0.102 0.717 ± 0.291 0.800 ± 0.231 0.956 ± 0.129 0.473 0.237 0.911 ± 0.456 0.835 ± 0.316 1.127 ± 0.555 The Rs:Reco ratios had stronger inter-GS trends across years. Over the longer-term period (four years), the trends of Rs:Reco ratios were increasing, except in Ref. The Rs:Reco ratios in four perennial sites (CRP-Sw, CRP-Pr, AGR-Sw and AGR-Pr) significantly increased. The CRP-Sw had the largest amplitude of increase, rising from 0.49 to 0.89, whereas AGR-Pr increased from 0.35 to 0.80. The ratios in annual crops increased slightly while Ref did not have a significant increase. The drought year had a small or no change in Rs:Reco ratios (Fig. 5.5 & Table 5.1). 167 (A) 2 2 1 1 Reco/GPP 0 2012 2013 2014 2011 -1 AB 2012 2013 2014 2013 2014 -1 C -2 -2 CRP-C AGR-C -3 -4 B Sw CRP-Sw AGR-Sw -3 -4 2 AB AB 1 A 1 0 0 Reco/GPP A 0 2011 2 B AB 2011 2012 2013 2014 2011 year -1 Pr -2 -2 CRP-Pr AGR-Pr -3 -4 2012 year -1 Ref Ref -3 -4 (B) C 1.6 Rs/Reco 1.2 Sw 1.2 CRP-C AGR-C CRP-Sw AGR-Sw A 0 A 1.2 AB B a 2011 1.6 2012 a b C 0 B 2013 2011 2014 1.6 2012 2013 Ref 2014 Ref c d B 0.8 2011 a a 1.2 CRP-Pr AGR-Pr A b 0.4 0 Pr a A a a 0.8 0.4 B 0.8 0.8 0.4 Rs/Reco 1.6 b A A 0.4 B A 2012 AB B 0 year 2013 2014 2011 2012 year 2013 2014 Figure 5.5. The mid-growing season Reco:NPP and Rs:Reco ratios across years in different sites. The yearly variations of Reco:GPP (A) and Rs:Reco ratios (B) are indicated by their CROP (between panels) and LUH (within panel). Solid dots show CRP while empty circles show AGR sites. The letters present the results of Tukey’s HSD test for different sites, where upper-case letters present the statistical results of CRP and the lowercase letters represent the results of AGR sites. The letters display the means from small to large alphabetically. The curves without letters mean there is no significant difference between all years. The Reco:NPP ratio (A) does not show the high or low standard deviations completely since the range is too large. 168 5.3.5 The shift in annual NEE, GPP, Reco and Rs among CROP and LUH across years In all treatments, NEE increased in the drought year (2012) and then decreased in the following years (2013 and 2014). In the drought year, the increases in NEE are more likely due to the decrease of GPP than the increase of Reco. The NEE decreased in most fields in 2013 and 2014. However, GPP and Reco contributed differently to the NEE decrease in two years—2013 and 2014. In 2013, the decrease of NEE was due to the different magnitude of increase on GPP and Reco, although both of them had remarkable increases. The decrease of NEE in 2014 was likely due to the coincident decrease of Reco, while the change of GPP varied (Figs. 5.6 (B) & (C)). Comparing the change of NEE across years, each field had its own distinct trajectories due to different GPP and Reco responses to climate. The Ref always had the highest annual NEE. It was positive in 2012, 2013 and 2014, meaning it was a carbon source. At other sites, most NEE was negative, implying most biofuel cropping fields were carbon sinks (Fig. 5.6 (A)). The CRP-C, the annual crop with high soil carbon and nitrogen content, had the highest Reco out of any other perennial crop or AGR-C fields (close to Ref site, Fig. 5.6 (C)), resulting in its high NEE. The CRP sites generally had a higher GPP and Reco than AGR sites. The mid-GS Rs had a similar yearly trend to GPP. Annual GPP explained 74% of mid-GS Rs and 38% of annual Reco (Fig. 5.7). The AGR sites always had a smaller NEE than CRP sites under the same crop type. The higher soil carbon and nitrogen content may increase Reco in CRP fields although GPP in CRP fields was generally higher than those in AGR fields. The CRP-Pr field had a remarkably low NEE with high GPP and Rs (Figs. 5.6 (A), (B) & (D)), implying that its well-established root 169 system may have helped the growth of plants and stimulated a higher photosynthetic rate and higher root metabolism. 170 (A) (B) 500 500 0 -500 −500 AnnNEE NEE (g CO2m-2y-1) 0 -1000 −1000 -1500 −1500 -2000 −2000 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 year 2014 2014 year (C) (D) Figure 5.6. The cumulative annual NEE, GPP, Reco and mid-growing season Rs across years in different sites. The net annual NEE (A), GPP (B), Reco (C) and mid-GS Rs (D) in all sites were presented in different panels. The stellate figures presented Ref sites while circles, squares and triangles shows corn, switchgrass and prairie, respectively. The solid figures with solid lines display CRP sites and the empty figures with dash lines show AGR sites. The mid-growing season is identified as May 21 - August 20 due to the limitation of available data. 171 (A) (B) Figure 5.7. The linear regression models of Reco and mid-growing season Rs to annual GPP. The correlation between mid-GS Rs and annual GPP (A) and between Reco and annual NEE (B). The GPP (B), (C) and (D) in all sites were presented in different panels. The stellar figures present Ref sites while circles, squares and triangles shows corn, switchgrass and prairie, respectively. The solid symbols display CRP sites and the empty symbols show AGR sites. The mid-growing season is identified as May 21 - August 20. 172 5.4 DISCUSSION 5.4.1 The seasonality of NEE, GPP & Reco between annual and perennial crops The seasonality of NEE can be mostly explained by the different phenology between corn and other perennial crops. We always planted corn in May, resulting in a short GS due to late onset. The low GPP before June determined the positive spring NEE in corn fields (carbon source) during this period. Perennial crops, in contrast, germinated when the soil temperature rose in spring, generally in April. The two-month difference of carbon assimilation explained the different seasonality of NEE and GPP between annual and perennial crops, which also reflected annual NEE. Corn sites had a weaker carbon sequestration capacity than switchgrass and restored prairie, with a lower annual GPP (Figs. 5.6 (A) & (B)) at an annual scale. However it had a very strong peak of NEE in July and August (Fig. 5.2) and its minimum daily NEE was always lower than that in perennial crops (Table. 5.1). Falge et al. (2002) analyzed FLUXNET data from 35 different sites across diverse biomes, climate regimes and latitudes. They inferred that the future climate warming in temperate and high latitude areas would alter the terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance by increasing the net primary production (NPP) by changing the difference between GPP and autotrophic respiration and the length of growing season. The latter will have a stronger impact on the ecosystem carbon budget than the former. In My experimental farms, the length of GS is important for the annual carbon budget, however, the climate benefits from annual and perennial cropping ecosystems can be very different resulting from different mechanisms. On one hand, the increasing temperature would lengthen the growing season of perennial crops, but would have little effect on corn in the croplands. The climate warming would enhance the difference in GS length between corn and perennial crops and would enlarge the difference in their annual 173 carbon sequestration capacities. On the other hand, the advanced onset of a GS may increase the risk of a summer water crisis in perennial crop fields, since the high spring evapotranspiration may consume most of the soil water. The impacts that future climate will have on NEE on annual or perennial crop ecosystems are “context-dependent”. The timing of unusual climate events or the seasonality of temperature and precipitation may also play different roles on the annual NEE in crop ecosystems. For example, low summer temperature may increase the value of NEE in an annual crop more than in a perennial crop, since corn has higher GPP in a short summer period while perennial grasses have a relatively gentle variation and a longer active period of GPP. In contrast, the spring drought may impact perennial more than annual crops since early emergence, which is characteristic of perennial, may drain soil water and induce a high risk of water deficit in the summer. In sum, the integration of temperature and water availability interplay, the timing of climate events and their gradients should be considered when we estimate effects of the future climate scenarios on different ecosystems. 5.4.2 The mid-growing season Reco:GPP and Rs:Reco ratios The seasonality of NEE is comprised of the seasonality of respiration assimilatory fluxes and processes (Falge et al., 2002). Carbon assimilation and respiration have distinct drivers. Daytime NEE was more controlled by photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) while nighttime NEE and ecosystem respiration were dominated by temperature (Gilmanov et al., 2007; Zhang et al., 2015; Chen et al., 2015). The time lags between the response of GPP to PAR and the responses of Reco to temperature may increase the Reco:GPP ratio dramatically. The high temporal variation of the Reco:GPP ratio reveals time lags in my systems. Only the Reco:GPP ratio in CRP-Pr between 2011 and 2014 and in CRP-Sw between 2012 and 2013 had significant 174 differences. CRP-Pr seems to have a long-term decrease in the Reco:GPP ratio from 2 in 2011 to less than 1 in 2014, while CRP-Sw obviously decreased in the Reco:GPP ratio between 2012 and 2013 (Fig. 5.5 (A)). Both of them were due to the significant increase of GPP after 2012. There are several possible reasons for the dramatic increase of GPP after 2012. First is the shorter and delayed summer water deficit. The summer water deficit occurred mid- to late July in 2011 and 2012 (Fig. 3.1 (B)), which depressed all components of NEE, including GPP, Reco and Rs (Fig. 5.2). This is because the low availability of water limited biological activities and reduced the photosynthetic carbon source indirectly. The weak and delayed water deficit mitigated the limitation of photosynthesis and brought high GPP and Reco. The amplitude of increase in GPP was greater than Reco, resulting in lower NEE. Second, the decrease of the Reco:GPP ratio in all Sw and Pr sites coincided with the increase of C4:C3 biomass after the severe drought in 2012 (Fig. 3.7, Abraha et al., 2016). The increased dominance of C4 grasses may explain the higher photosynthetic rates in 2013 and 2014. 5.4.3 The interannual trend of mid-GS Rs:Reco ratios One of the most important differences between annual and perennial crops is the development of their root systems. Perennial crops develop dense root systems to increase their water and nutrient uptake ability and store carbon belowground. The establishment of the root system requires more than one year and may strongly affect soil respiration. The contribution of belowground respiration may increase year by year due to the development of root systems in perennial crop ecosystems. My results across different crops proved this hypothesis and revealed that the development of root systems increase the Rs contribution to Reco after land use change. The Ref field had a high Rs:Reco ratio across treatments, while corn fields had a low Rs:Reco ratio. Perennial crops Pr and Sw had remarkable increasing trends from 2011 to 2014 (Fig. 5.5 (B)). 175 The Rs:Reco ratios in CRP-Sw and AGR-Pr sites increased and arrived at similar levels to the Ref site, implying that they had established their root systems five years after land use change. 5.4.4 The limitation of the TWV model For the estimation of soil respiration, I assumed that total soil respiration (Rs) is a function of soil temperature (Ts), soil moisture (VWC) and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (i.e., TWV model in Chapter 2; Eq. 2-2 & Supplement 2-4). There are some uncertainties that may affect the estimates of Rs. First, I combined the four-year data set to develop the parameters of the equation. However, we experienced a severe drought (2012) and two cool summers (2013 and 2014). The effects of climate regimes in a certain year and the immediate and lagged responses to severe drought may be complex and hard to recognize because the model ignored the differences in parameters between years. For example, my TWV model may have underestimated Rs in the disturbed year (2012) and overestimate the Rs in the recovery years (2013 & 2014). It would be better to add a “year” term in the equation to correct the problem. Second, the extrapolation of soil respiration from the growing season to the whole year may introduce uncertainties. The soil respiration data were collected biweekly during the growing season. However, the soil respiration may show different patterns in different seasons. The cross-seasonal estimation brought uncertainty. Based on my model, the winter Rh was always higher than Rs since Rh had a smaller sensitivity to temperature change (Supplement 2-4). It would have been better to monitor soil respiration in winter to address this problem. Third, the EVI data were collected from MODIS and had low spatial (250 by 250m) and temporal resolution (16 day). My experimental site fits into only one grid cell of the image and had no replication of the EVI value. The 16-day temporal resolution is adequate to follow the 176 dynamics of vegetation, but that is too long of a time period for soil respiration estimation. The seasonal curves of Rs were stepped. Higher spatial and temporal resolution of vegetation index or leaf area index may improve the TWV model. The in situ measurement of LAI may reduce the uncertainty of EVI. 5.5 CONCLUSIONS Most studies on ecosystem carbon fluxes response to climate focused on interannual scale and ignored the seasonality of climate variables. My research reveals that the impacts of climate change on NEE of CO2 are context-dependent and require emphasize at the intra-annual level. The different phenology between annual corn and perennial grasses affect the seasonality of GPP and Reco. The timing of specific climate events, such as common summer drought, the occasional spring severe drought or cool summer may impact annual and perennial crops differently, whereas the annual mean temperature and precipitation are similar. Severe drought increases NEE by decreasing both GPP and Reco. The responses of GPP and Reco in the following years were different, although both GPP and Reco rebounded remarkably. Huge amounts of dead organic carbon entered the soil due to the 2012 drought and stimulated the growth of plants. This resulted in high GPP and Reco in 2013. Reco dropped dramatically in 2014 while GPP in CRP fields maintained a high level. The different responses of GPP and Reco two years after the severe drought supported the high ability of carbon sequestration in CRP fields, especially in the CRP-Pr field. The combination of high soil nutrients and perennial crops stimulated a quick development of a root system with a strong carbon sequestration ability. 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To address the critical challenges on human well-being and the ecosystem health and to achieve the purposes of Millennium Development Goals (MDGs; United Nations, 2015) and the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD; United Nations, 1992), the jointly research were incorporated (Sachs et al., 2009) to mitigate the impacts of climate change on human well-being, biodiversity loss and ecosystem service degradation. The integration and the convergence of ecological and socio-economic sustainability has quickly become the largest challenge in contemporary sustainability science. The human-natural nexus system has dramatically developed to address climate change-derived problems from different perspectives, such as the coupled human and nature system (CHANS; Liu et al., 2007a, b; McConnell et al., 2011; Chen & Liu, 2014; Chen et al., 2015), water-energy-food nexus (NEF Nexus; FAO, 2014) and ecosystem stewardship (Chapin et al., 2010). However, these frameworks are still in their initial stages, and they require fundamental knowledge to fill the gaps between how subsystems mechanisms and their respond to climate scenarios. 183 Figure 6.1. The framework of coupled human and nature systems (CHANS) on the impacts that bioenergy development has on managed ecosystems. Bioenergy-induced land use change and agricultural practices may change the community structure of vegetation, affect their traits, modify biogeochemical processes, and ultimately alter ecosystem functions, such as carbon sequestration ability. The changing climate, such as temperature and precipitation patterns, may affect biogeochemical processes via community traits with or without altering community structure. The framework focuses on the impact that bioenergy has on agricultural ecosystem developments at local scale—disincluding economic and telecoupling effects. LUH: land use history; CROP: crop type; GHG: greenhouse gas; R-T: respiration-temperature correlation; WUE: water use efficiency; NUE: nutrient use efficiency; LUE: light use efficiency; AOA: ammoniaoxidizing archaea; AOB: ammonia-oxidizing bacteria; GPP: gross primary production; Reco: ecosystem respiration; Rs: total soil respiration; Ra: autotrophic soil respiration; and Rh: heterotrophic soil respiration. 184 The purpose of biofuel development is to reduce total carbon dioxide emission per unit of fuel used. However, direct and indirect land use conversion and agricultural practices in the biofuel croplands may affect the benefits that bioenergy has on climate. Development of bioenergy and bioenergy-derived land use change have been the most hotly disputed topics in the past decade (Liu et al., 2015), leaving many gaps in current knowledge. I developed a nexus framework of bioenergy, including coupled human and nature systems (Fig. 6.1). My study mainly focused on the responses of the nature system under some settings of land use conversion and agricultural practices. I explored the response of community traits, community structure, major carbon processes and ecosystem carbon sequestration underneath different crop types and land use histories. This framework does not include socio-economic and telecoupling effects, but can be expended in the future if required. My dissertation emphasized the relative contributions that the components of carbon dioxide processes have on net ecosystem CO2 flux and how they respond to climate patterns in different lands use histories (before land use conversion) and crop types (after land use conversion) at inter- (Chapter 2) and intra-annual (Chapter 3) scales—especially in regards to immediate and prolonged effects on a drought during the growing-season. I also developed Bayesian models to explore the soil respiration’s temperature correlations and its shift after severe drought (Chapter 4). Chapter 5 discussed the different responses that gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Reco) have in regards to NEE and its amount as well as the seasonality of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) caused by the asynchrony of GPP and Reco. In Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, I found that both soil temperature and vegetation index were positively correlated with total and heterotrophic soil respiration. The temperature and 185 photosynthetic-derived carbon via carbon allocation determines the intrinsic potential of soil respiration. Soil water content has weak or no correlation with soil respiration. However, it plays crucial roles during summer drought periods and limits soil respiration. In my studied ecosystems, different effects and magnitudes of three different natural and anthropogenic forces on soil respiration were recognized at different temporal scales. First, the seasonal patterns of temperature and water availability in a specific year affected the annual soil respiration. Not only did temperature and precipitation affect vegetation growth —and therein total and heterotrophic soil respiration—but also the timing of the microclimate. The spring and summer drought had stronger impacts on annual soil respiration than those occurring in fall since the spring-summer drought degraded the vegetation growth and photosynthesis, which ultimately impacted total and heterotrophic soil respiration. Second, the severe drought in 2012 not only depressed soil respiration within the same year, but also affected one or more following years by changing vegetation composition in perennial crop fields and ecosystem water use efficiencies (eWUE; Abraha et al., 2016). The effect of severe drought was strong and lasted more than one year by changing the vegetation community structure. Third, the long-term trend of autotrophic soil respiration (Ts) was remarkable in CRP-Pr and AGR-Pr field in the 5th year (2014) following land use conversion due to well-established root systems. Generally speaking, annual and perennial crops had different strategies to adapt to severe drought. Corn has late onset and a shorter growing season to alleviate summer water stress on vegetation and soil microbes. It also has a higher eWUE (4.1 g C m-2/mm H2O in CRP-C & 3.8 in AGR-C) than perennial crops (2.5-3.3 in prairie and switch grass croplands) (Abraha et al., 2016). In contrast, perennial crops had highly developed dense root systems helping them absorb deep water storages. The mature perennial ecosystem at the Ref site had the highest resistance 186 and soil respiration recovery after a severe drought, even though it had the lowest eWUE (2.3; Abraha et al., 2016). Perennial crops also increased eWUE to acclimate to severe drought by increasing its C4 plant composition. The different strategies between annual and perennial crops to cope with drought determined their resistance to increasing risks caused by extreme temperatures and drought events. Under different climate scenarios and different combinations of temperature and precipitation gradients, annual and perennial crops may exhibit different benefits. The increase of temperature may improve photosynthesis rates, elongate the growing season and stimulate the carbon sequestration abilities of perennial crops, but may also increase the risk of summer a water crisis. Also, the presence of heavy rain in late July may convert a cropland from a carbon source to a carbon sink in a hot year. Vegetation composition, which reflects the cross-year acclimation to the temperature-precipitation regimes, and the succession of perennial grasslands/croplands also determine the resistance and resilience of soil respiration to future climate regimes. After understanding the soil respiration between different crop types and how they respond to three different forces, I studied the correlation between soil respiration and its major driver, soil temperature (R-T correlation), in different LUH and CROP and how it responds to severe drought using Bayesian models. I found that the LR20, which denotes the growing season mean soil respiration, ranks from high to low in the following ecosystem types: Ref > prairie > switchgrass > corn. This order coincides with root density, where: late succession perennial crop (Ref) > early succession perennial crop (Pr and Sw) > annual crop (C). Soil respiration in Ref had the highest soil respiration temperature sensitivity (β) resistance and recovery and LR20 on Ra. The well established LR20 and β of Ra remained even in severe drought conditions. All β of Ra decreased while those of Rh increased in Pr, Sw and C fields. The decrease of βRa coincided 187 with most previous studies that found severe drought depresses soil respiration and its temperature sensitivity by inhibiting cellular biochemical reaction when water is not available. The increase of βRh was surprising. The possible reason is the change of soil microbial community structure, which caused the high β with low R when severe drought was experienced. After a two-year recovery from the 2012 drought, the R-T relationship of Ra and Rh seemed have different trajectories. The Ra was likely returning to equilibrium while Rh moved toward a new equilibrium with higher β and lower LR20. Both the immediate and prolonged reactions of the RT relationship implied that the soil microbial community exhibited higher “plasticity” in adapting severe drought while vegetation roots were likely to return to pre-drought condition. When comparing the locations of different LUH-CROP treatments on the β-LR20 biplots between 2014 and 2011, the Euclidean distances of annual crop and the Ref fields were very small. This implies no long-term trends in the R-T relationship in annual crops and in late successional grass ecosystems. Other perennial crop fields had larger Euclidean distances that revealed long-term trends toward higher growing season Ra with higher temperature sensitivities due to the development of dense root systems. The combination of Chapters 2-4 tells an interesting story on how late successional grassland ecosystems have well-established root systems and high resistance and recovery to drought disturbances—even with high respiration and low eWUE. Early successional grasslands have slightly a lower stability (higher magnitude of fluctuation after disturbance and longer duration to recover) than Ref fields. However, the development of root systems, the shift of vegetation composition and the possible change in soil microbial community structures may help an ecosystem better adapt to severe drought in the future. 188 GPP and Reco have different driving forces. The asynchrony of the drivers and the time lags for carbon reallocation result in the seasonality of NEE. Differences in phenology between annual and perennial crops determine NEE, GPP and Reco seasonality. Corn has a late growing seasonal onset with low NEE in the mid-summer while perennial grasses have early onset and a longer growing season. However, early onset of the GS may increase the risk of the summer water deficit, since high spring evapotranspiration may drain soil water in the early growing season. The climate regimes and the timing of extreme events may stimulate or dampen the carbon sequestration ability based on the different ecosystem characteristics. For example, spring drought may depress perennial grasslands while cool summers may increase the NEE in annual crop ecosystems by dramatically reducing GPP. Perennial grasses have lower eWUE and higher soil respiration. Both increase their risk in the face of extreme drought. However, wellestablished root systems may tap into deep-water storages and strengthen drought resistance and recovery. The carbon and nutrients stored in roots may also support future use. 189 LITERATURE CITED 190 LITERATURE CITED Abraha, M., Gelfand, I., Hamilton, S.K., Shao, C., Su, Y.J., Robertson, G.P., Chen, J., 2016. Ecosystem water-use efficiency of annual corn and perennial grasslands: contributions from land-use history and species composition. Ecosystems, 19, 1001-1012. 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