"Many countries in the global South have been experiencing a rapid transformation of their food systems in the last two decades. Nigeria, sub-Saharan Africa's most populous country and largest economy, has seen a rapid growth in poultry production as a result of rising incomes, urbanization, and increased demand for animal proteins. Despite this extraordinary performance, poultry businesses face several challenges. First, the poultry sector is characterized by a multitude of farm sizes, but little is known about the performance of each type or the processes that support their growth and modernization across space and time. Second, concerns related to higher temperatures linked to climate change are raising questions about the ability of poultry farms to protect their investments in order to maintain their current growth trajectories. Third, there is limited enforcement of food safety regulations in the country and no market mechanisms to regulate food safety challenges associated with maize, a key ingredient in poultry feed. The considerable presence of aflatoxins, deadly toxins produced by fungi, in domestically produced maize is therefore a major concern among poultry farmers due to its negative effects on the birds. This dissertation therefore 1) examines the structure of growth patterns in the poultry sector, 2) investigates the adaptation practices of poultry farmers to higher temperature, and 3) explores a market-based solution to supply aflatoxin-safe maize on the Nigerian market. Using a multi-method approach, it draws from both quantitative and qualitative data collected in states that play a major role in the poultry value chain in Southern and Northern Nigeria. The first essay uses the concept of minimum investment threshold, to investigate the dynamics of poultry farm sizes and its implication on the likely ability of farms to grow and withstand input price shocks. The second essay draws on a case study approach to examine poultry farmers' perceptions of higher temperatures, their effects on production and their adaptation strategies. The third essay uses a discrete choice experiment method to estimate maize traders' willingness to pay for aflatoxin-safe maize, a key quality attribute of the commodity. The findings of this dissertation have both policy and practical implications for actors involved in the Nigerian poultry value chain. First, it provides evidence of multiple equilibria (low equilibrium and high equilibrium) in the poultry industry in Nigeria and the existence of a critical minimum investment threshold to operate a farm at or around the high equilibria. Moreover, firms at (or headed towards) the low equilibria are less likely to experience growth and more likely to exit the sector in the event of an input price shock. Second, this work highlights that poultry farmers clearly perceive that temperatures are increasing, and they are adopting adaptation practices suitable to the size of their farms. Lastly, it provides suggestive evidence that a market-based solution that incentivizes maize traders to supply aflatoxin-safe maize is attainable as long as the buyers of the commodity care enough to pay a price premium for that attribute."--Pages ii-iii.
Read
