As climate change unfolds it is necessary to gain a better understanding of how tree growth is affected by contemporary climate. This can provide information about both prerecorded climate and future growth responses to climate change. Yet, tree growth and its relationship with climate remains understudied in one section of the northeastern United States, the Great Lakes Region. Here, I use dendrochronology to (1) reconstruct 500 years of moisture conditions on South Manitou Island, Lake Michigan, (2) compare growth and growth-climate relationships within/among nine species along a latitudinal gradient from southern Indiana to Upper Michigan, and (3) forecast future growth under climate change. I find that (1) while drought was a regular occurrence since the mid-1500s, the most severe droughts and the most variable conditions overall occurred in the 20th century, (2) the predominant climatic factors associated with growth in the region are summer temperature (negative relationships) and summer precipitation (positive relationships), and that the influence of these factors was strongest in the south, and (3) future growth was projected to decline over the rest of this century as climate change proceeds, independent of latitude.
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