Climate change is causing Arctic and sub-Arctic systems to warm at twice the global average rate. Warming temperatures are leading to unprecedented rates of sea ice decline, which is shifting the migratory patterns of animals, increasing accessibility to natural resources, and spurring tourists to travel to the Arctic. Many of these changes have the potential to increase marine vessel traffic in the Arctic. Ships are a primary mode of transportation in the Arctic, which has many remote communities and a fragmented road network. Ships take resources, such as fish, ores, and oil and gas, from the Arctic to global markets, and also serve as lifelines, bringing essential supplies to isolated communities. While these vessels serve to connect distant social-ecological systems and support human wellbeing, they can also have detrimental effects on the ecosystems through which they travel. Noise pollution, habitat degradation, ship strikes, invasive species introduction, and oil spills are all potential consequences of vessel traffic. Knowledge of the movements of vessels in space and time is necessary to determine the role that vessels are playing within Arctic systems and quantify their impacts. This information is also needed to predict the consequences of different vessel traffic policies for Arctic communities, ecosystems, and the interactions between them. The purpose of this dissertation is to quantify the spatiotemporal patterns of vessel traffic in Arctic social-ecological systems and to relate these patterns to other system components, including sea ice and wildlife movements. In chapter 2, we review the existing Arctic coupled human and natural systems literature and apply the newly introduced framework of metacoupling to explore the connections among the coupled human and natural systems of the Arctic and between Arctic systems and distant systems. We suggest that applying the metacoupling framework would improve future studies of Arctic coupled human and natural systems by distinguishing between different external connections and their unique impacts on sustainability. In chapter 3, we create a new, six-year data set of vessel activities in the North Pacific and Pacific Arctic Oceans. We then use these data in a case study examining the spatiotemporal patterns of vessel movements in the Bering Strait Region. As the only route connecting the Pacific and Arctic Oceans, the Bering Strait is a critical corridor for marine vessel traffic and migratory animals. While most vessel traffic in the region is local, we find that transient vessel traffic, particularly fishing activities and transport along the Northern Sea Route, increased between 2015 and 2020. In chapter 4, we focus on the movements of marine vessels in the ice-covered waters of the Pacific Arctic. We find that movements in ice differ by vessel type, and that while vessel traffic declines with increasing sea ice concentration, the overall amount of vessel traffic in sea ice increased between 2015 and 2020. In chapter 5, we evaluate the resource selection decisions of an endangered marine predator, the Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus), in relation to fishing and non-fishing vessel movements in a sub-Arctic system, the Gulf of Alaska. Our results illustrate that adult female Steller sea lions select areas away from fishing vessel activities at a weekly timescale. This finding supports the hypothesis that large fishing vessels may disturb Steller sea lions, with potential consequences for their fitness. This dissertation expands upon the metacoupling framework by building a foundational understanding of the transportation of metacoupled flows. This work also contributes to the growing body of knowledge of vessel movements and their impacts on marine systems, which can be applied to design policies that promote the sustainable use of marine systems in a changing world.
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