The Greater Mau Forest Complex (GMFC) is a socio-economically and ecologically significant yet very fragile landscape in southwest Kenya. It hosts an important water catchment for East Africa, includes several protected areas, and has been subject to significant land use land cover (LULC) change over the past decades. However, few studies have comprehensively characterized these changes or their associated implications on livelihoods and sustainability of the system. This dissertation addresses three distinct but connected research questions: (1) What is the nature and magnitude of LULC patterns, and what is the role of biophysical factors in these patterns and processes? (2) How should socio-ecological sustainability be measured in a significant and fragile yet data-sparse landscape? and (3) What is the nature and magnitude of LULC dynamics in the four GMFC counties (Bomet, Kericho, Nakuru, and Narok) and what is the perceived likelihood of LULC changes impacting livelihoods among the forest-adjacent populations? Study 1 performed robust accuracy assessment and characterized LULC changes in the GMFC under several topographic scenarios using landscape metrics of fragmentation and dominance. The study also applied the Kruskal-Wallis tests to assess statistical significance among the differences. Results showed that despite much conservation focus on deforestation, grasslands in southwest Kenya are more rapidly decreasing in size and becoming more fragmented and that topography has played a significant role in these changes. Improved spatiotemporal LULC characterization and projections are important for managers and policy makers. Study 2 assessed the stability of GMFC system across time using the water-energy-food (WEF) nexus framework. The study used a blend of precipitation, energy consumption, vegetation indices, and crop yield data to examine the WEF synergies and trade-offs within the GMFC. Results indicate increasing rates of variability among the WEF variables in the GMFC over the last 30 years, suggesting that a paradigm shift would be necessary to ensure sustainability of this ecosystem in the wake of other local and global challenges. Additionally, the research revealed the challenges of measuring sustainability in data-sparse areas. Study 3 investigated LULC change dynamics in the four counties of the GMFC and examined the interconnections between these changes and livelihoods among forest adjacent populations of the GMFC. The study then used data from household surveys and ordinal logistic regression to understand the relationship between LULC changes and livelihoods. Results indicate that land cover varied by county while level of education, household income, and age have statistically significant influence on perceptions regarding the intricate nature-society relations. This dissertation utilized remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), statistical, and qualitative techniques to assess the interconnectedness of land cover change, climate variability, and livelihoods in a significant yet fragile landscape. The robust methods translate well in multiple landscapes and scales. These findings are key for climate change mitigation, adaptation, and resilience discourses because peoples’ perceptions influence their behavior towards the environment. This work contributes to nature-society research and policy in the wake of myriad socio-ecological challenges.
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