SPATIAL ECOLOGY OF GRAY WOLVES (CANIS LUPUS) IN THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO ANTHROPOGENIC DISTURBANCE

Large carnivores tend to avoid humans and their activities spatially and temporally, yet often experience high rates of anthropogenic mortality and their conservation frequently depends on coexistence with humans. I investigated how human landscape disturbances influences landscape use by gray wolves (Canis lupus) in the western Great Lakes region of the United States. Specifically, I investigated whether landscape use by wolves has changed temporally, whether it differs among individuals, and how human disturbances may affect the future distribution of gray wolves. I characterized wolf recolonization of the western Great Lakes region during 1989–2020 by investigating whether the relationship between wolf habitat suitability and two indices of human disturbance, human population density and proportions of agricultural land cover, has changed during this period. I also modeled habitat selection for the western Great Lakes region, distinguishing between territorial and non-territorial wolves and conducted a subsequent connectivity analysis. Finally, I assessed wolf recolonization potential throughout their former range in the eastern USA by modeling habitat suitability and connectivity potential. During 1989–2020, wolves occupied areas with progressively higher levels of human disturbance, resulting in an estimated 35% increase in wolf habitat across Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, though range expansion appeared to slow over time. Habitat selection of territorial and non-territorial wolves was similar and connectivity analysis suggested limited habitat connectivity due to human landscape disturbance, constrained recolonization of suitable areas within the western Great Lakes region. I estimated 65.3% of former range in the eastern USA is currently unsuitable for wolves, but identified five unoccupied areas in the eastern USA that could maintain viable wolf populations. However, connectivity between current and potential wolf range appears limited due to high human disturbance and the presence of the Great Lakes. This work demonstrates an apparent range stabilization of wolves in the Great Lakes region, where little unoccupied habitat remains available, but there appears limited potential for further natural recolonization of unoccupied habitat throughout the eastern United States. This can inform policy discussions such as the desirability of human-assisted recolonization of additional historical range, and the accomplishment of targets set when wolves received federal protection.