The dynamics of violence and insecurity impose shocks on the general population that can cause devastation and limit market transactions. Violence shocks have led to drops in agricultural production, investment and labor decisions, amongst others. Moreover, the effects of armed confrontation, banditry and aggression have not been homogenous across the population and have differed based on socioeconomic levels linked to urbanization and geographical differences. Within agri-food research, literature has focused mostly on the effects of violence on farmers decisions and welfare without taking into account meso- level variables such as urbanization or other value chain actors, such as traders. The purpose of this work is to understand the relationship between violence and urbanization on the structuring of agri-food value chain as well as the actors within it.The first essay analyzes how meso-level variables, access to value chains, violence levels and territorial characteristics of secondary/tertiary cities and their catchment areas (denominated rural-urban territories) have an effect firstly, on milk farmers market channel choice and secondly on the decision of milk farmers to adopt different technologies associated to breeding, pasture management and milking practices. For both analyses, we particularly focus on rural-urban development levels (degree of violence, urbanization, and urban proximity) and access to value chains, measured by the number of upstream and downstream traders, all while controlling for famer micro characteristics. The second paper studies the vulnerability of maize trader in Nigeria to exogenous shocks (such as climate, violence, or spoilage). We focus firstly on understanding the relationship among these shocks (that is, do they cluster or affect the trader as a “confluence”) and second on the trader characteristics that make them more vulnerable. Specifically, we analyze if female, rural, and Northern (poorer region) traders more vulnerable to exogenous shocks than male, urban, and Southern traders. We find that There's a notable positive correlation between COVID and violence shocks, particularly affecting Northern regions, which bear a disproportionate burden of shocks due to poverty and rural violence. Gender also plays a role, with women more likely to experience violence shocks. Traders farming maize mitigate price shocks but become more vulnerable to violence shocks. The final essay examines the impact of violent conflict on maize prices in Nigeria. Drawing on survey data from 1100 maize farmers in Nigeria in 2021, we analyze both violent events and the presence of non-state armed actors (NSAA), on maize prices in the locations where a trader’s base is (i.e. his main stall/firm activity is located) as well as the location of their main supplier. We find that heightened violence correlates with increased maize prices, underlining the transaction cost aspect of violence and its hindrance to market mobility. Our analysis also highlights the significant interaction effect between violence and urban density, emphasizing the pronounced impact of violence on prices in urbanized areas.
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