I J 71-12,008 WROBLEWSKI, Michael Dennis, 1942THE RISK TAKING OF STUDENTS IN THE FIRST COURSE OF THE TEACHER TRAINING SEQUENCE AT MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY AS MEASURED BY TWO INSTRUMENTS. Michigan State University, Ph.D., 1970 Education, administration University Microfilms, A XEROX Company, Ann Arbor, Michigan T HE RISK TAKING OF STUDENTS IN THE FIRST COURSE O F T HE T E AC H ER TRAINING S E QUENCE AT M IC HIGAN STATE UNIVERS ITY AS M EA S U R E D BY TWO INSTRUMENTS By M ichael Dennis Wroblewski A THESIS Submitted to M ic h i ga n State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of D OCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Ad m in i st r at io n and Higher Educat ion 1970 ABSTRACT THE RISK TAKING OF STUDENTS IN THE FIRST COURSE OF THE TE ACHER TRAINING SEQUEN CE AT MICHIG AN STATE UNIVERSITY AS ME A SURED BY TWO INSTRUMENTS By Michael Dennis Wroblewski Summary Purposes of the Study 1. The basic purpose of this study was to de ve lop an Instrument to measure risk t aking in educational situations and to compare It to a general test of risk t aking (Kogan and W a l l a c h ’s C h o i c e - D l l e m m a s ) to see in what ways the two instruments differed. 2 . Closely allied wi th this purpose was the desire to ascertain If prospective teachers scored differently on the two Instruments. 3. The study additionally sought to determine If there existed significant differences between: a. The first and second admini strations of the instruments. b. Special classes conce ntrating on value d e c i ­ sions in education and regular educational psychology classes. c. Male and female subjects. Michael Dennis Wroblewski d. Interactions of the instruments with the three other basic factors of the study tion, (a dministra­ class, sex). In order to explore these related p u r p o s e s , eight hypothe ses were developed. These will be discussed later in this abstract under Conclusions. Limitations of the Study 1. Only students in the first course of the te acher training sequence at Michigan State University were subjects 2. The study does not consider many situational or personality variables which might affect risk taking. 3. The developmental p eriod (Education 200) Is not the only input wh ich could affect the risk-ta k in g p r o p e n s i ­ ties of the subjects. Review of the Literature A review of the literature for this study consisted of an analysis of the research done on risk taking In terms of environmental or situational factors, individual or organis- mlc factors, and social or group factors. The review indicated that further study of risk taking should Include a consideration of the unique situational tors and value alternatives making tasks. fac inherent in specific d e c i s i o n ­ Before anything of importance can be said about the risk taking of professional educators, the unique aspects of educational decision making need to begin to be investigated. Michael Dennis Wroblewski Design of the Study The S a m p l e .— Students enrolled in Education 200 at Michigan State University, spring term, 1969-1970, were the subjects of this study. I n s t r u m e n t a t i o n .— The Kogan and Wa l la c h Cholce-D llemmas and an experimental instrument patte r ne d after that i n s t r u ­ ment, but wit h educational dilemmas, were the two instruments of the study. The Kogan and Wal lach general test of risk taking had a Hoyt relia bility coefficient of rt t «.71. experimental instrument's The reliability was computed at r t t - -7 7 - P r o c e d u r e .— The subjects were randomly assigned into different fourths of the total E du c at i on 200 population. subject took more than one instrument, one time. instrument and administration, s id e r e d — sex and class. No Besides two other factors were con­ Subjects were nested in all levels of all factors. A n a l y s i s .— The eight statistical hypot heses were tested by analysis of variance and appr opriate Scheffe comparisons. Conclusions The foll owing conclusions have b ee n drawn from the findings: 1. Large same population (295,279), randomly chosen groups of the (Education 200) score ri skier on the experimental instrument than the Kogan and Wallach instrument (P^.0001) regardless of administration. Michael Dennis Wroblewski 2. No significant differences were found b et w e e n a dministrations on either instrument. 3. At the first administration, scored significantly riskier on the experimental *4. (P<.05) special classes than re g ul a r classes instrument. No significant di fferences were found b etween classes at the first a d m i n i st r at io n on the Kogan and Wallach instrument. 5. At the first a dm i n i s t r a t i o n there is more of a difference (P<^.05) in scores b e t w e e n classes w it h the expert mental instrument than the Kogan and W a l l a c h instrument. 6. scores No significant diff erences we re found b et w e e n gain from the first ad m in i st r at i on to the second admini s tr a tion in the special classes wh e n the Kogan and W al l a c h and the ex perimental 7. instruments were compared. Special classes score riskier than r egular classes CP <-03>. 8 . Males score riskier than females 9. Males score ri sk ier than females on the e x p e r i ­ mental instrument 10. (P^.Ol). (P<.05). No differences exist b e t w e e n males and females on the Kogan and W a ll a ch instrument (B*.035, wit h a n o n ­ centrality p ar a meter of 1 .0 ). 11. No significant differences were found b et w ee n the differe nce scores of males and females w h en both instruments were compared. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The wr i t e r wishes to express gratitude to Dr. Louis Romano, the chairman of his committee, and helpfulness. Dr. for en coura gement The other members of the committee, Dale Alam and Dr. Clyde Campbell, were also very helpful. Special gratitude is due to C. S. Mott and the Mott F oundation for financing the first year of study. But, most of all, the w r i t e r wishes to thank his wife, Karen, whose patience, un d e r s t a n d i n g and emotional support rescued this thesis many times from oblivion. TA BLE OP CONTENTS Page A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S ............................................. 11 LIST O P T A B L E S ............................................. v L IS T O F F I G U R E S ............................................. vll Chapter I. I N T R O D U C T I O N ........................................ The P r o b l e m ...................................... Purpose of the S t u d y ............................ Definition of Terms ............................ Assumptions of the S t u d y ....................... Limitations of the S t u d y ....................... H y p o t h e s e s ........................................ O ve r vi e w of the T h e s i s .......................... 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 II. REVIEW OF L I T E R A T U R E ............................... I n t r o d u c t i o n ...................................... Situational Influences on Risk Taking . . . . The Role of Personal Characteristics in Risk T a k i n g ................................. Personality and Mo tivational Correlates . . . Generality and Specificity of Risk T a k i n g . . Group Decisions I n vo lving R i s k ................ Summary and C o n c l u s i o n .......................... 9 9 11 16 18 23 25 32 THE D E S I G N .......................................... The S a m p l e ........................................ The Education 200 E x p e r i e n c e ................... Instrumentation ................................. Reliability S t u d i e s ............................ Procedures of Test A d m i n i s tr a ti o n . . . . . . A n a l y s i s .......................................... S u m m a r y .......................................... 34 34 35 39 **2 44 48 50 ANALYSIS OF THE D A T A .............................. S u m m a r y .......................................... 51 65 SUMMARY, CO NCLUSIONS, AND I M P L I C A T I O N S ......... S u m m a r y .......................................... C o n c l u s i o n s ...................................... I m p l i c a t i o n s ...................................... 69 69 71 73 III. IV. V. Page Questions for F u rther S t u d y ..................... R e f l e c t i o n s ........................................ 77 78 ............................................... 80 A P P E N D I C E S ................................................. 95 B IB L IO G RA P HY A. KOGAN AND W AL L AC H *S "DILE MMAS-OF-CHOICE" B. MATERIALS FR O M SPE CIAL CLASSES OF ED UCATION 200. 102 C. MATERIALS FROM R EG U LA R CLASSES OF E DU C AT I ON 200. 106 D. ITEM POOL FOR E X P E R IM EN T AL I N S T R U M E N T ..... E. . . . . 96 128 E XP E RI M EN T AL I N S T R U M E N T .............................. 1^5 LIST OP TABLES Table Page 3.1— Pearson Product-Moment Correlations of Item Pool With Associated Total Scores ............ 42 3 .2 — Item Correlation With Total Score for Both I n s t r u m e n t s ................................. 43 3.3— Mean Squares for Subjects and Items on the Kogan and W a ll a ch I n s t r u m e n t .......... 44 3 .4— Mean Squares for Subjects and Items on the Experimental Instrument ................... 44 3.5— Hy pothesized Proportion of Subject Responses. 45 . 3.6— Actual N u m b e r of Subject R e s p o n d e n t s ........ 3.7— Skewness and Kurtosls of Sample on E x p e r i ­ mental and Kogan and Wa l la c h Instruments. 46 . . 49 4 .1 — Analysis of Variance o f Interactions of I n t e r e s t .................................. 52 4 .2 — Cell Identification, Frequencies and Mean Item R e s p o n s e s ............................... 53 4.3— Weighted Means for Instrument by A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ............................... 53 4 .4— Simple Comparisons for Instrument by Admin is t ra t io n Interaction (IA) .............. 55 4.5— Scheffe Comparisons for the Instrument by A dm i ni s tr a ti o n Interaction (IA) .............. 56 4.6— Weighted Means for Instrument by Class Interaction at the First Administration . . . 57 4.7— Weighted Means for Instrument by A dm i ni s ­ trat ion by Class I nteraction ( I A C ) ........ 59 Table Page 4.8— Scheffe* Comparisons for the Instrument by A dm i nistration by Class I nteraction (IAC). . . 6l 4. 9 — We i gh t ed Means for Instrument by Sex Inte raction ( I S ) ................................. 61 *1.10-Power Test for Null Hypothesis 64 7 ................. 4 . 1 1 - S c he f f^ Comparisons for the Instrument by Sex Interaction ( I S ) ....................... 64 4. 12-Analysis of Varian ce of Interactions of I n t e r e s t ...................................... 65 LIST OP FIGURES Figure Page 3.1— Suggested Reading S c h e d u l e ....................... 37 3.2— Action P r o j e c t ...................................... 38 4.1— Instrument by Ad m in i st r at i on Inter action 57 (IA) . 4 . 2 — Instrument by Class Interac t io n at the First A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ............................ 58 4.3— Instrument by Admini st r at i on Interaction for Spec ial C l a s s e s ............................ 60 4.4— Instrument by Sex Interaction 63 ( I S ) ............. I t is n o t t h e c r i t i c w h o c o u n t s , n o t t h e mein w h o p o i n t s o u t how th e stron g man have done th em stum h ied , The h otter. is a c t u a l l y in t h e a r e n a ; sweat an d b lo o d ; o r w h o re t h e d o e r o f d ee d s co u ld c r e d i t b e l o n g s t o t h e m a n who w h o s e f a c e is m a r r t d who s tr iv e s v a l i a n t l y ; bij d u s t a n d who e r r s a n d c o m s t s h o r t a g a i n a n d a g a i n ; who knows t h e g r e a t • n t h u s ia s m s , t h e g r o a t devotions, a t th e a n d s p e n d s h i m s e l f in a w o r t h y c a u s e ; who b e s t k nows in t h e a n d t h e t r i u m p h o f h i g h a c h i e v e m e n t ; a n d who a t t h e w o rs t, g re a tly ; if he fails, a t le a s t f a i l s while d a r i n g so t h a t h is p l a c e s h a l l n e v e r h e w i t h t h o s e c o l d a n d t i m i d so u ls w h o k n o w n e i t h e r v i c t o r y n o r d e f e a t . — THEODORE ROOSEVELT CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The Prob lem The need for e v a l u a t i n g the effectiveness of training p rograms problem. for teachers and a dm i nistrators is a conti nuing It Is difficult eno ugh to assert that trai ning p r o ­ grams have resulted in increased cognitions for the trainees, but evaluation in the affective d omain Is noticeably absent. There are at least two Interrelated problems in evalu ating in the so cial-emotional domain. The first is confusion about what are the Intended changes that result grams; from traini n g p r o ­ the second is the crude state of development of Instruments to measure attitudinal, value, and behavioral changes. Educators and non-ed u ca t or s alike have attacked the schools for b e i n g too conservative.^ Protesting students throughout the world demand brave, new approaches. The critics say that educatc/rs are reacting and not prone to I n n o ­ vate: "We are at the threshold of a revolution in e d u c a ­ tion, a revolution which will alter dr as tically every ^■R. J. H a v i g h u r s t , "Requirement For a Valid New Criticism," Phi Delta K a p p a n . 40 (1 9 6 8 ). 2 Important aspect of ed ucation as a social institution and as a pr ofession."^ The ferment demands more than eve r that educational person nel be prepared to take more risks Instruction, in such areas as curriculum revision, budget allocations, interpersonal relations. and Therefore, the promotion of risk taking has become more and more an explicit or Implicit objective for the training of school personnel. If an Instrument t aking of educators, could be devised to m e as u re the risk then teacher and admini st r at o r p r e p a r a ­ tion programs would have some Index to evaluate wh e t h e r or not the training p r o g r a m fosters Increased risk taking. Likewise, in-service t ra ining of teachers on a building- or system-wide basis might be enhanced. The ri s k- t ak i ng i n st r u­ ment might help in the school administrator's diagnosis of where to con centrate his efforts in br i nging about changes. Despite the benefit to e du c ation w h i c h res earch into the area of r i s k - ta k in g b e ha v i o r In educators might be, work in this area has not been forthcoming. Many res earchers have In vesti­ gated risk taking in g e n e r a l , but Inquiry into risk decisions in the realm of ed u ca t io n has b ee n absent. Purpose of the Study The purpose of this study Is to compare the changes In risk t aking that occur in a developmental period (Education 200) to un dergr aduate teacher trainees at Michigan State *M. Lieberman, The Future of Public E d uc ation (Chicago: Pheonix Books, The University of Chicago Press, 1965), 1. 3 University, as me a su r ed by a standard, general test of risk t aking (Kogan and Wallach*s and an experim ental " D i l e m m a s - of - Ch o ic e "— Ap pendix A) instrument which is specific to e d u c a ­ tional situations. Two groups of students tak ing Education 200 at Michigan State Uni versity will be compared wi th both instruments. Most of the students take the regular sections of Education 200; they comprise the first group. The second group of students take special classes of E du c at i on 200. These special classes have more of an emphasis on value systems and value d ecision in education. De finition of Terms Risk T a k i n g .— Degree to which an individual chooses an o ption which has a high reward but a low probability of payoff. S i t u a t i o n a l .--That component of risk t aking which is d etermined by the circumstances w i t h i n which risky a l t e r n a ­ tives are present. Sens itivity of the I n s t r u m e n t .— The capability of the instrument to pick up differences b e tw e en groups. Ex perimental I n s t r u m e n t .— The risk-ta k in g test which is mo de led after Kogan's Choice-Dilemmas procedure, but has te aching situations dilemmas instead. Dev elopmental P e r i o d .— The ten weeks d u ri n g w hi c h s tu ­ dents at Michigan State Un iversity are enr olled in the first course in the education sequence (Education 200). Special Classes of Ed ucation 2 0 0 .— Those sections of E ducation 200 wh i ch are explicitly concerned throughout the te rm with value decisions in education. Regular Classes of Education 2 0 0 .— Those sections which have as their procedure the more traditional Ed ucational Psychology approach; that is, cognitive rather than affective emphasis. Assumptions of the Study The following assumptions are inherent in the study: 1. The Kogan and Wall ach Choice-Dilemmas test does, in fact, me asure 2. risk taking. The instruments are of a semiproJective nature, the subject being asked how he would advise others in the situations described. It is assumed that an individual's advice to others reflects his own regard for the des irability of success relative to the disut ility of failure. 3. Educat i on 200 cannot be credited or b lamed as the sole o r prime cause of the change in risk taking, but for evaluation purposes that period of time in which the students take the course is a developmental p e riod for t h em in w hi c h Ed ucation 200 is an Important part. 4. Subjects in special and regular classes of Education 200 had no systematic differences at the b e g i n n i n g of the course. 5 Limitations of the Study This study Is the first step In the devel opment of an Instrument to assess the risk t aking of teachers. It Is an attempt to investigate risk taking in the ed ucational sphere. Although the literature indicates that the s i t u a ­ tional elements of risk t ak i ng need to be considered, this study is by no means definitive mental in that regard. The e x p e r i ­ instrument is p a tt e r n e d after the Cholce-Dilemmas of Kogan and Wallach and attempts to tap some of the more value- salient decisions made by teachers. other situational But it does not consider factors known to affect risk taking, such as chance and skill aspects, or effects of p r i o r gains and losses. While the study is a c o nsideration of one area of the known en viron mental effects on risk taking, it does not investigate at all the p ersonality dimension. No attempt has been made to pursue the interaction effect of educational decision m aking and personality type or trait. Another limitation of the study is its narrowness of scope. The sample Is composed of college students who will become teachers. There is some qu estion about wh e t h e r or not more familiarity with teaching risk decisions variable in the study. Is a confounding If the sample also includ ed p r a c t i t i o n ­ ers, the generallz ability of the findings and certitude about the role of familiarity wo u ld be increased. The study is also limited by circumstances which con­ front most social science researchers. period (Education 200) The deve lopmental is not the only input which could affect the r i3k-taking propensities o f the subjects. It is assumed 6 that this course, because it is mainly concerned wJt h value decisions in education and because it purports to increase risk taking, iod. is an important part of that developmental p e r ­ The relati vely large sample and the random assignment of subjects to the first and second administration of the tests should equalize the differential effects on risk taki ng of inputs other than E du c at i on 200. Hypotheses This study will investigate five general hypotheses. They will be stated in broad research form below and again in Cha pter III in testable form. Each of the hypotheses will be preceded by a brief explan at i on of its theoretical base. A more extensive discus si o n of their relationship to the theory and research on risk ta king is available in Chapter II. Much of the resear ch on risk t aking has revealed that ri sk -taking propensity can be changed. Because E d uc ation 200 purports to affect risk taking, it is h yp o t h e s i z e d that: Hy pothesis I Some of the changes o c c u r r i n g in subjects d ur i ng the E ducation 200 developmental period are changes in risk taking. The researc h Indicated that risk t aking is highly s i t­ uational. The experi mental instrument, w hi c h has educational situations, as oppo sed to the Kogan and W al l ac h instrument, wh ich has general risk decisions, should be differentially 7 affected by changes in risk taking in the educational sphere. Therefore: Hypothesis II The changes in risk t aking of subjects d u ri n g the Educa ti o n 200 de velopmental period will be m ea sured more se nsitively by the experimental instrument than by the Kogan and Wa l lach instrument. • Since students are assigned to special or regular classes of E d uc ation 200 on a ra n d o m basis: Hypothe sis III There will be no difference in risk taking be tween special and regular classes at the b e g i n n i n g of Ed u ca t i o n 200. The literature on risk taking indicates that many risk decisions are, at base, value decisions. When making a de cision the individual weighs the values which are a s s o c i ­ ated wi th each alternative. Because the exp erimental i nstru­ ment is geared to educational decisions and b ecause special classes of E d uc a ti o n 200 concentrate more on values and value s y s t e m s : Hypothesis IV There will be more of a change in risk t a ki n g in the special classes of Educa t io n 200 w he n m e asured by the e x p e r i ­ mental instrument than by the Kogan and W al l ac h instrument. In most of the studies done on risk taking, male and female subjects do not significantly differ. indication, however, There is some that certain ri s k- t ak i ng situations do 8 activate responses that do d if ferentiate by sex. Perhaps, the environment of the school is one situation in wh ich males and females are prone to respond differently in their risktaking behavior. Hypothe sis V The exp erimental instrument will r e gister more sex difference than will the Kogan and W al l ac h instrument. O ve r v i e w of the Thesis In Cha pter II the review o f literature on risk taking will be pursued. This will consist of a report of studies rel ating to situational, pe rs onality and group factors risk taking. in The auth or will attempt in the review to show that g en e ra lizations about risk taking are not po s si b le w i t h ­ out gi ving consid e ra t io n to situational components and the values a c ti vated by alternatives in risk d e cision making. The design is specified in Chapter III, I nc l uding a descri p ti o n of the po p ul a t i o n and the sample used. This ch apter will also Include a discuss i on of the Instruments used and estimates of their reliability. The pr ocedures of the a d mi n is t ra t io n of the in struments will be followed by a statement of the hypoth eses and the statistical methodology to be used. Chapter IV will be de voted to an analysis of the dat a ga thered in this study. Findi ngs for each hyp othesis will be reviewed. The final summary of conclusions, discussion and i mp l i­ cations will be given In C h apter V. CHAPTER II REVI EW O P L IT E RA T UR E I nt roduction To talk about risk t aking Is to ref er to b e h a v i o r in situations where there Is a desirable goal and a lack of cer­ tainty that It can be attained. poss ible It is to expose o neself to failure whi le in pursuit of a desirable goal. Such situati ons can range from b u y i n g a ticket on the Irish Sweepstakes to dri ving a car. These situations may take the form of requir ing a choice b e t w e e n more and less desirable goals, with the former h a vi n g a lower p robability of a t t a i n ­ ment than the latter. The investigation of risk t aking and its role in de cision m ak i ng has been h ighly diffused. first considered The concept was in the literature by ec onomists in a tt e mp t ­ ing to explain econ omic decisions. Out of this co ncern grew a n umber of mathematical model formulations. cribes Edw ards^ d e s ­ four such models that have b e e n developed for the pur pose of p r o v id i ng a fully determ in i st i c explan a ti o n of human gambling decisions. They are based on the e x p e c t at i on that the de cision maker will choose alternatives that are of *W. Edwards, "The Pr e di c t i o n of Decisions Among Bets," Journal of Experimental P s y c h o l o g y . 51 (1955)» 201-20*1. 10 m aximum value for him. However, emp^fl&al evidence has not been consistent w it h the t h e o r i e s .1 When psychologists Joined the inquiry, the concept became highly diffused. on the domain, In order to impose some organization the author will first separate it into three broad areas of s t u d i e s : those which have to do with e n vi r on ­ mental or situational elements, ual or organismic factors, or group determinants. those which concern i n di v id ­ and those which address social Under the rubric of situational fac­ tors the reviewer will consider various kinds of de c i s i o n ­ mak i ng tasks In which risk t ak i ng can be elicited. Then, the implications of these contextual effects for r isk-taking behav io r will be discussed. determinants, the author will Under the class of individual summarize the various personality and cognitive variables that are associated with risk-ta k in g behavior. Finally, the differences in risk taking of groups as opposed to Individuals will be explored. The author will be greatly aided in this attempt by the competent review of risk taking by Kogan and Wallach. 2 1W , Edwards, "Probability Preferences In Gambling," American Journal of P s y c h o l o g y . 66 (1953), 349-364; W. Edwards, "Variance Preferences in Gambling," American Journal of P s y ­ chology . 67 (1954), 441-452; C. H. Coombs and S. S"! Komorita, T*Measuring Utility of Money Through Decisions," American Journal of P s y c h o l o g y . 71 (1958), 383-389; and F. M o st e l l e r and P. N o g e e , "An Experimental Measurement of Utility," Journal of Political E c o n o m i c s . 59 (1951), 371-404. 2 N. Kogan and M. A. Wallach, "Risk Taking As a Function of the Situation, the Person, and the Group," in New Directions in Psychology III. (New York: Holt. Rinehart and Winston, 1967. ---- 11 Situa tional Influences on Risk Taki ng Chance and Skill Aspects Pew decisions alone. are composed of skill or chance elements An attempt at explaining the function of risk taking In the decis i on - ma k in g process requires a consideration of both of these components. Chance tasks can be perceived as be ing susceptible to the Influence of skill, and vice versa. Strickland, Lewlcki, and K a t z 1 found that subjects made more co nservative bets in t hr owing dice when they were asked to do so after the dice had been thrown they did before they threw the dice. (but not seen), than The researchers' Inter­ p re t ation was that the subjects believed they had some control 2 over how the dice would fall. On the other hand, Cohen has found evidence that subjects Introduce chance factors into their percep ti o n of skilled performance. that He further implies individuals are more prone to risk taki ng if they believe they can influence the outcome of the decision. ■3 Lit tig modifies the Cohen findings by p o st u la t in g that the percept i on of some measure of control of the outcome leads to modera te risks, whereas b el i ef in no influence elicits avoidance of intermediate approaches in favor of excessively "^L. H. Strickland, R. J. Lewicki, and A. M. Katz, "Tem­ poral Or ientation and Perc eived Control ad Determinants of Risk-Taking," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y . 2 (1966), 143-151: 2 J. Cohen, Chance, Skill, and Luck (Baltimore: Penguin, I960). . W. Littig, "Effects of Skill and Chance Orientations on Probability Preferences," Psychological R e p o r t s , 10 (1962), 67-70. 12 risky or excessively conservative approaches. Llttlg's e v i ­ dence Is very much In line w i t h Atkinson,^- who found the same relationship be tween achievement motive and risk taking. This concomitance seems to suggest a powerful Interaction b etween the situational and the personality elements of riskt aking behaviors as Atkinson puts i t : The strength of motivation to achieve at a partic ular task in a partic u la r situation must be viewed as Jointly de termined by a general disposition to achieve and an expectancy concerning the consequences of action that is defined by situational cues at the time of p e r f o r m ­ ance .2 Effects of Gains and (>0 3 ts in Decision A very important determinant of ri skiness of a decision is the "seriousness" of that decision in terms of what can be gained or lost be cause of it. This aspect of ri sk-taking behavior has been inve stigated most extensively with the 3 Kogan and W allach Choice Dilemmas (Appendix A). The Choice Dilemmas are a series of 12 life situations, in w hi c h subjects indicate the lowest odds they w o u l d accept for s el e ct i ng a risky, but desirable, alternative when given the choice of a more certain, but less desirable, alternative. Kogan and Wallach*s problems cover a wide range of topics, J. W. Atkinson, "Motivational Determinants o f RiskTaking Behavior," Psycho logical R e v i e w . 64 (1957), 359-372; Atkinson, e d . , Motives in F a n t a s y . A c t i o n and Society (Princeton, N.J.! Van foostrand, 1 9 5 8 ); and Atkinson, An Introduction to Motivation (Princeton, N.J.: Van Nostrand, o t t t :------------------------2 3 Atkinson, An Introduction to M o t i v a t i o n , p. 267. Kogan and Wallach, op. cit. 13 e nt a iling possible losses of prestige, life, and money. self-satisfaction, An example is item 8 : Mr. H, a college senior, has studied the piano since childhood. He has won amateur prizes and given small recitals, s ug g es t in g that Mr. Hi has considerable musical talent. As graduation approaches, Mr. H. has the choice of going to medical school to become a physician, a p ro f es s io n which would b r i n g certain prestige and finan­ cial rewards; or e n te ri n g a conservatory of music for advanced tra ining with a we l l- k n o w n pianist. Mr. H. realizes that even upon completion of his piano studies, w hi c h would take many more years and a lot of money, success as a concert pianist wo u ld not be assured. The subject could elect not to take the risky a l t e r n a ­ tives or to indicate his willin gn e ss 5, 7, or 9 chances in 10 that Mr. ful pianist. to take it with 1 , 3 » H. would become a s u cc e ss ­ The lower the m i n i m u m acceptable odds selected by the subject, the riskier his choice is said to be. Analysis of the differential response of each item reveals that in general "the costs o f po ssible failure do affect the risk that will be tolerated by the subject."^ It appears that as the value of the desirable outcome increases, the cost of failure will deter the individual less. In fact, p Wa llach and Kogan speak of performance on the Cholce-Dllemma instrument as an index of "deterrence of failure." In selec t in g a probability value, the individual e s s e n ­ tially is te ll ing the extent to which possible costly failure will deter him from seeking desirable objectives. As we have seen, decision situations will vary in the degree to wh ich the costs Incurred by failure will detract from the pursuit of valued g o a l s . 3 1 I b i d . , p. 135. *'M. A. W a ll a ch and N. Kogan, Aspects of Judgment and Decision-Making: Inte rrelationships and Changes with Age," Behavio ral Science, 6 (1961), 23-36. o Kogan and Wallach, o p . c l t . , p. 136. 14 Rettig and Rawson, Rettig and Pasanamick, and Rettig and S I n h a 1 have a more broadly based but consistent I n t e r ­ pretation of this phenomenon. T heir analyses suggest that Individuals weigh values In decision situations. They posit that values are associated with both the gain and the cost alternatives. To pursue one alternative and the c o r r e s p o n d ­ ing values ass ociated with it puts the other alternative and its associated values in Jeopardy. As the values linked with gains achieve dominance ov er those associated wi th costs, r isk-taking levels should go up. This interpretation was further replica t ed wi t h real 2 and not imaginary incentives by Su y da m and Myers. Effects of Prior Gains and Losses The research here is equivocal. and Clovic, Edwards; Lichtenstein; Lichtenste in and Edward s^ contend that previous S. Rettig and H. E. Rawson, "The Risk Hy pothesis Predictive Judgments o f Unethical Behavior," Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , 66 (1963), 24 3-248; S. Rettig and B. P a s a m a n i c k , "differential Ju dgment of Ethical Risk by Cheaters and Noncheaters," Journal of Abnormal and Social P s y c h o l o g y . 69 (1964), 109-115; and S. R ettig and J. B. Sinha, "Bad Faith and Ethical Risk Sensitivity." Journal of Per ­ sonality, 34 (1966), 275-286. 2 Mary M. Su y d a m and J. L. Myers, "Some Parameters of Risk-Taking Behavior," Ps ychol ogical R e p o r t s . 10 (1962), 559-562. 3 W. Edwards, "Subjective Probabilities Inferred from Decision," Psychological R e v i e w . 69 (1962), 109-135; Sarah Lichtenstein, "Bases for Pr eferences Among Three-Outcome Bets," Journal of Experimental P s y c h o l o g y . 69 (1965), 162-169; and PTI Slovic, Sarah Lichtenstein, and W. Edwards, "BoredomInduced Changes In Preferences Among Bets," American Journal of P s y c h o l o g y . 78 (1965), 208-217. in 15 outcomes are unimportant, while McGlothlin, Kogan and Wallach, G r ee n be rg and Weiner, 1 Myers and Port, 2 and others have found both positive and negative recency effects. Risk Ta k in g In Mutual Settings Field research on risk t ak i ng has not been conspicuous. Since risk-ta k in g b e h a v i o r is highly susceptible to s i t u a ­ tional elements, it is s u r p r i si n g that so few Ame rican p s y ­ chologists have e n de a vo r ed to check their laboratory with everyday life. findings By contrast, in the United K i ng d om the aversi on is not common. Perhaps, the best wo r k done in Br it ain on this topic is by Jo hn Cohen. Summaries of this c 6 w or k are available in Cohen and Hansel and Cohen. W. H. McGlothlin, "Stability of Choices Am o ng Uncertain Alternatives," American Journal of P s y c h o l o g y , 69 (1965), 604-615. 2 J. L. Myers and Jane G. Port, "A Sequential Analysis of Gambli n g Behavior," Journal of General Psychology, 69 (1963), 299-309. ■a N . Kogan and M. A. Wallach, Risk Taking: A Study in Cognition and Personality (New York! Holt, Rinehart and W i n s t o n , 1964. M. G. Gr e en b e r g and B. Weiner, "Effects of R e i n f o r c e ­ ment History Upon R i sk - Ta k in g Behavior," Journal of E x p e r i ­ mental P s y c h o l o g y , 71 (1 9 6 6 ), 587-592. 5 J. Cohen and C. E. M. Hansel, Risk and G am b l i n g (London: Longmans, 1956). ^ J . Cohen, Chance. Skill, and Luck (Baltimore: Penguin, i9 6 0 ); and J. Cohen. B e ha v i o r in Un certainty (New York: Basic Books , 1964. 16 In America, Griffith 1 and McGlothlin 2 found horse-race betters prone to w a g e r proport i on a te l y more money on "longshots." Thus, they tended toward ri sk ier decisions than objective outcomes warranted. Munson's study o f carnival betting-* found c on f li c ti n g results but it seems clear that demand characteristics were artifacts of this study. Field studies se e m to find results In which subjects chose riskier alternatives than in la boratory studies. exact The relationship of the difference still needs to be explored. Much 3 1 111 needs to be known about the situational and task parameters o f r i s k - t a k i n g behavior. dent, however, that the situat io na l elements certain personal personality It does seem e vi ­ characteristics. interact with What is known about the aspects o f r i s k - t a k i n g b e h a v i o r will be consid­ ered next. The Role o f Personal Charac teristics in Risk T a k i n g Sex and Age Differences It is commonly b el i e v e d that women tend to be more conservative that men. W al l ac h and Kogan found no evidence to ^ R . M. Griffith, "Odds Adjustment by American Horse-Race Betters," Americ an Journal of P s y c h o l o g y , 62 (19**9), 290-29*4. ^McGlothlin, loc c l t . ■^R. F. Munson, " D ec i si o n- M ak i ng in an Actual Gambling Situation," American Jo u rn a l of P s y c h o l o g y . 75 (1962), 6*40-6*43. a M. A. Wall ach and N. Kogan, "Sex Differences and J u d g ­ ment Processes, Journal of P e r s o n a l i t y . 27 (1959), 555-56*4 ; and W a llach and K o g a n , "Aspects of Judgment." 17 support this stereotypic view. They did find differences, however, wh i c h seemed to indicate that "each sex appeared to be w i l l i n g to tolerate h igher risk levels in pursuit of values considered more sex a p p r o p r i a t e . The values a s s o c ­ iated with the risk decision are important determinants of the level of risk both in terms o f situational and personality characteristics. With y o u n g children, Kass 2 found boys consistently ri skier than girls in a momentary p a y - o f f game. children, Slovic found o ld er boys Again w i th in a study conduc ted at a county fair, (ages 11 to 16) ma n if e s t e d gre ater risk ta k ­ ing than did their female age mates. The i n c on s is t en c y of the adult and childr en findings has not been adequ ately explored. Perhaps, the difference is due to a lack of knowledge o f sex appropriate values in children. On the subject of age differences, Wa llach and Kogan tested an elderly group o f subjects (mean age of 70) with an intellectual equivalent group of college students with the Choice- Pilemmas instrum ent described previously. The older group scored consistent ly more conservative than the college students (both male and female). Unfortunately, studies to ■^Kogan and Wallach, "Risk Ta k in g As a Fu nction of the Situation, the Person, and the Group," p. 166. 2 N. Kass, "Risk in D e c i s i o n- M ak i ng As a Function of Age, Sex, and Probability Preference," Child D e v e l o p m e n t . 35 (1964), 577-582. ^P. Slovic, "Risk- T ak in g in Children: Age and Sex D i f­ ferences," Child D e v e l o p m e n t , 37 (1966), 169-176. Wa ll ach and Kogan, "Aspects of Judgment." 18 measure r i s k - t a k i n g differences al o ng the age co ntinuum have not b e en forthcoming. Consequently, no broad general con­ clusions concer n in g changes In r l B k - ta k ln g be h a v i o r In males and females across the total life span can be made. One can only conclude that there Is evidence to support sex and age dif ferences In risk taking. Personality and Motivational Correlates Ac hievement M o t i va t io n A n umber of researchers have i n vestigated the re l a t i o n ­ ship be tween risk t a k i n g and achievement. The M cClelland- Atklnson formation of this re lationship is best known. Ac cording to Atkinson,* two components, pro bability related. its (Ps) and incentive values (Is) are inversely If a task is very difficult to p e rform (Is) will be very high. are also probabi lities The model postulates that there and incentive values The Ps + Pf ■ 1; Is + If - 1. two motives: the m otive to succeed avoid failure (Mf). These (low Ps), A person will derive a great deal of satisfa c ti o n from it. (If). subjective (Pf) Atkinson also postulates (Ms) and the motive to two motives aforementioned p ro babilities for failure combine wit h the and incentives to determine risk- taking behavior. In those situations where skill and not chance are con­ ceived to be the element which determines the outcome, the ris k-taking level is determ ined by the following equation: 1Atkinson, "Motivational Determinants." 19 Resultant Mo t iv a ti o n ■ (Ms x Ps x I s ) ♦ ( M f + P f + If) Analysis of the equation reveals that individuals higher in the motive to achieve success should p re f er intermedial risks, while those individuals wi t h M f > M s will exhibit eith er extreme risks or very low risk levels. McClelland's experiment with children in a ring toss game confirmed the Atkinson model but de Charms and Dave, in a si m il a r experiment designed to o pe r ationalize more exactly the Atkinson model, found confli c ti n g results. sequent empirical studies have, the Atkinson theory. for the most part, Su b ­ confirmed However, a number of undefined areas in the theory are troublesome. Kogan and W a llach sum them up: 1) The p a r t i c u l a r context under which the risk-t a ki n g procedures are administered. 2) The need to control for individual differences In skill so that subjects ap proach the d e c i s i o n- m ak i ng tasks wi t h eq uivalent objective p r obabilities of success. 3) The relevance of the motives to achieve success and avoid failure for decision m aking u n de r chance con­ ditions . **) The Influence of diverse methods for a s se ssing a c h i e v e ­ ment motiva ti o n on results o b t a i n e d . 3 D. and Low Need for and Society, ed. Nostrand, 1958), C. McClelland, "Risk-T a ki n g in Children with High Achievement," In Motives In Fantasy, A c t i o n , by J. W. Atkinson (Princeton, N.J.: Van 306-321. 2 R. de Charms and P. N. Dave, "Hope of Success, Fear of Failure, Subjective Probability, and R isk-Taking Behavior," Journal of Personality and Social P s y c h o l o g y , 1 (1965), 558566. ^Kogan and Wallach, "Risk T aking As a Function of the Situation, the Person, and the Group," 173-190. 20 W h et h er or not these trouble spots are w o r k i n g out in the theory, It Is doubtful that It could satisfactorily explain risk-t a ki n g behavior. In the many studies done to test the relationship of achievement motiva t io n to risk tak ­ ing, another perso nality construct has been unco vered as b ei n g operant. It has be e n variously labeled as need for social approval, Sp ontaneous social desirability, and d e f e n s i v e n e s s . 1 remarks by subjects in various experiments indi­ cate that they thought it w o u l d have been "weird" or "not sensible" to pick the p a r t i c u l a r task, even though they felt 2 inclined to do so. These subjects might have be en i n fl u ­ enced by their desire to appear "acceptable" to the e x p e r i ­ menter. This aspect of the r i s k - t a k i n g pheno m en o n will be conside red again in the section of the review on group in f lu ­ ences. For now, It appears that individuals di scern that certain social values are associ a te d with the level and extent of risk taking they exemplify. are more Furthermore, subjects who failure threatened app ear to seek approval from e xperimenters more than succe s s- o ri e nt e d subjects in their risk taking. These former subjects wo u ld be less prone to 1D. P. Crowne and D. Marlowe, The Approval Motive (New York: Wiley, 196*0; R. W. Moulton, "Effects ot Success and Failure on Level o f Aspiration As Related to Achievement Motives, Journal of Personality and Social P s y c h o l o g y . 1 (1965), 399- 4 0 6 ; J. W. Atkinson and N. T"! leather (eds.), A Theory of Achievement Mo t iv a ti o n (New York: Wiley, 1 9 6 6 ); and Kogan and Wallach, "Risk T a k i n g As a Function of the S i t ­ uation, the Person, and the Group." 2 Moulton, "Effects of Success and Failure," *105. 21 have In ternalized values; they w o u l d be more dependent. seems that personality and s i tuational variables It interact to cause the salience of certain values or clusters of values in decid i ng risk situations. Other Personality Correlates The most comprehensive wo r k on risk t a ki n g is Kogan and Wallach's Risk T a k i n g .^ In this book the authors examine a number of p ersonality variables w h i c h are related to risk taking. Among th e m were inventories su fficiency, found that independence, for I m p u l s i v e n e s s , self- and rigidity. Kogan and W allach females high in r i s k - t a k i n g propensity were more independent and less rigid. for male risk taking. Other factors wer e responsible Perhaps varia bles assoc iated w i th sex role identity become operant in risk decisions. variables are, as It seems, salient If these in females and not males, it suggests that the differential salience may be due to differences in the applica t io n of value systems be tween the sexes in r i s k - t a ki n g decisions. In another study conducted by Cameron and Myers preference for low-payoff, was high-p ro b ab i li t y bets 2 a (low risk) found to be assoc ia t ed w it h autonomy and endurance needs , wh ile exhibition, to high-payoff, aggression, and domi nance needs were related l o w- p r obability bets (high risk). ^Kogan and Wallach, Risk Taking: A Study in Cognition and P e r s o n a l i t y . 2 B. Cameron and J. L. Myers, "Some Personality Corre­ lates of Risk Taking," Jo urnal of General P s y c h o l o g y , 7^ (1 9 6 6 ), ‘.1- 6 0 . 22 In a doctoral d is sertation finish ed at the University of Michigan, Williams* I nvestigated risk takers in an indus­ trial setting. He found that the greater the propensity of an individual to take risks, the more w i l l i n g that individual will be to: on promotion, 1) attempt large-scale change, 2) pl ace emphasis and 3) p refer ability and merit as cri teria for mobility in the organization. Williams also concluded that the hi gh risk taker has more of a nee d for independence and he exhibits g re a te r tolerance for change. These are consistent with an ea r l i e r report by Ziller. Finally, Barron, Kaplan, and McClel l an d findings 2 have p r oposed an a s sociation b e t w e e n r i s k - t a k i n g and creativity. These authors suggest that w i l l i n gn e ss to take at least a moderate level of risk is necessary d e m o n s tr a te d this for creative acts. relationship in children. Pankove has He concludes that the link be t w e e n risk and creativity lies in the L. D. Wi lliams, "The Measure m en t of R i s k - Ta k in g P r o­ pe nsity in an Industrial Setting" (unpublished Doctoral dis­ se rtation, U niversity of Michigan, I960. 2R. C. Ziller, "Vocational Choice and Utility Journal of C o u n s e ll i ng P s y c h o l o g y , 4 (1957), 61-64. for Risk," -3 F. Barron, Creativity and Psychological Health (Princeton, N.J.: Van Nostrand, 19o3)i N T Kaplan, "The Relation of Creativity to Sociol o gi c al Va riables in Research O rg a nizations," in Scien tific C r e a t i v i t y , ed. by C. W. Taylor and F. B arron (New Y o r k : W i l e y , 1963) , 195-204; and D. C. McCle lland, "The Calculated Risk: An Aspect of S c ie n ­ tific Perform ance," in Scientific C r e a t i v i t y , ed. by C. W. T a yl o r and F. Ba r r o n (New York: W i l e y , 1963), 184192. 4 E. Pankove and N. Kogan, "Creative Ability and RiskTaking in Eleme ntary School Children," Journal of P e r s o n a l i t y , 36 (Sept., 1968), 420-439. 23 Irid 1v Ldua L';j ability to feel reaI 13 1leal iy aelfconfIdent. General ity and Specifi c it y of Risk T a k i n g Havi ng ex a m i n e d some o f the p ersonality and situational elements of r i s k - t ak i ng beha vior, it seems appropriate to consider the relative effect of each. The only comprehensive approach to this p r o b l e m has be e n Kogan and Wallach's m o n o ­ graph - R i s k - T a k i n g .1 This classic study digresses from traditional psychological di st inctions of fields and topics, such as "personality," "opinions and attitudes," by p os i ti n g m o d e r a t i n g variables. The au thors argue that r e s e a rc h in g the relationship of two variables for an u n s e l e c t e d sample of pe rsons is too simplistic and that by divid i ng the sample under study in terms of t h e o r e ti c al l y re levant c h a r a c t e r ­ istics (moderating variables) that re l ationships might hold for some subsamples and not others. In this way, Kogan and W al l ac h made clearer what interactions persona l it y and s it u ­ ational elemen ts have in r i s k - ta k in g behavior. These inter­ actions and relatio nships might easily be lost in a more traditional indepe n de n t- d ep e nd e nt variable study. the authors found little g e n e r a l i z e d individual In fact, consistencies toward risk or conservatism. Kogan and Wallach's R l 3k - T a k l n g , however, did point out that some kinds of individuals did exhibit taking. generality in risk Persons who were high In "motivational disturbances," 1Kogan and Wallach, and P e r s o n a l 1 tx- Rl3k Taking: A Study in Cognition 2U that i3 high in test anxiety and defens iveness, did exhibit a great deal of consistency in their risk taking across a variety of d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g tasks. Some of Kogan and W a l l a c h ’s o th e r findings which are relevant here are: 1. Independence, self -sufficiency is directly related to greater risk taking in females on the choice dilemmas (r».27; r*.42). 2. Rigidity is associated wit h the male sample as a whole on the choice dilemmas (r-.26). 3. Se l f- s uf f ic i en c y is related to c o n s e r v at i sm in males and in d ependence to risk t a k i n g in females on many r i sk - ta k in g tasks. 4. Some pers onality determinants of r i s k - t a k i n g be havior become manife st only in the absence of motiva tional disturbance. 5. Individuals low in both test an xiety and d e f e n s i v e ­ ness made more "rational" or "adoptive" decisions. That i s , they were hi gh ly respo nsive to environmental contingencies b e a r i n g on choice of strategy for a given de c is i o n - m a k i n g task. 6. Changes in b e t t i n g strategies suggest dissonance reduction to be operant. This is evidence in sup­ port of Pestinger's disso nance theory.^ The Kogan and Wallach study has numerous implications for the study of cognitive-j u dg m en t al proces ses, intellective abilities, decision m a k i n g and personality. In fact, It deserves consideration from anyone interested In the psychology 2 of thinking. De Kock found that much of the var iability of risk t ak i ng can be a c co u nt e d for when the m o d e r a t o r variable technique is employed. More specifically, the m o no g ra p h sug­ gests that an individual will be more responsive to Interval 1I b l d . 2 A. R. De Kock, "Relationship Between Decision Making Under Conditions of Risk and Selected Psychological Tests" (unpublished Doctoral di ssert ation, University of South Dakota, 1063. 25 dispositions or to en viron mental cues d e pe n di n g upon what | is the nature of that person's motiv a ti o na l matrix. As Kogan and Wallach put it: Look to the motivational m atrix in w h ic h the th i nk e r is o p e r a t i n g if yo u seek to unders t an d wh e t h e r an overgene ralized p r e d i s p o s i t i o n or, on the other hand, se n si ­ tivity to releva nt en v ironmental data, will tend to govern his thought processes. Once again, it appears that an analysis of an i nd i vi d ­ ual's perception and d is p os i ti o n of the ri s k- t ak i ng context seems worthy of study. Individuals react differently to d ec i si o n - m a k i n g situa tions dependent upon what they perceive to be sa lient for th em in that situation. what exa ctly becomes The q u estion of salient to individuals In risk s i t u a ­ tions will be further clarified in the next section of this review. Group Decisions I n vo lving Risk For the purposes o f this thesis the author will confine his remarks to the most recent controversy in the literature on risk taking: the "risky shift." The Risky-Shlft Phenomenon Several recent studies have d i sputed the common sense notion that groups tend to make more conservative dec isions 2 than Individuals. The experiment by Stoner, w h o first ■''Kogan and Wallach, "Risk T aking As a Function of the Situation, the Person, and the Group," 215. 2 W. H. Whyte, Jr., The O r g a n i z a t i o n Man (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1956) ; and N. B a t e s o n , f a m i l i a r i z a t i o n , Group Discussion, and Risk Taking," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y . 2 (1966), 119-129. f 26 reported this phenomenon, is paradigmatic of these s t ud i e s . 1 Stoner had male graduate students of industrial management at M. I. T. take the afore m en t io n ed choice dilemmas individ­ ually and then come together in groups of six to achieve con­ sensus on levels of risk for each item. Stoner then separated the subjects again and asked them to state th eir preferential risk level. He found that both in group d iscussion and in the individual retest the subjects had increased in their preference for risk, i.e., toward an accepta nce of lower odds of success for trying the risk alternative. This "risky shift" did not oc c ur in the control sample, wh i ch had no group d i s ­ cussion but simply reconsidered the p r o b l e m a few weeks later. The risk-shift p henomenon has also been re ported by 2 Wallach, Kogan and Bern with monetary rewards, and Bern, 3 Wa llach and Kogan with aversive consequences for failure. Possible Explanations of the Rlsky-iahlft Phenomenon There are four major explanations for the risky-shift. ity, leadership, These that have bee n offered four are diffusion of r e s p o n si b il ­ rationality, and a cultural value for risk. A brief review of the support for each follows. 1J . A. P. Stoner, "A Compar is o n of Individual and Group Decisions Involving Risk" (unpublished MaSter*s thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1961). 2 M. A. Wallach, N. Kogan, and D. J. Bern, "Diffusion of Responsibility and Level of Risk Taking in Groups," Journal of Abnormal and Social P s y c h o l o g y . 68 (196^4), 263-27^. 3 D. J. Bern, M. A. Wallach, and N. Kogan, "Group Decision Making Under Risk of Aversive Co nsequences," Journal of Personality and Social P s y c h o l o g y . 1 (1965), *453-^0. 27 The d i f f u s l o n -o f -r es p on s ib i l it y hypothesis that the "affective bonds contends formed in discu s si o n enable the indivi dual to feel less than p r o p o r ti o na l ly to blame wh e n he entert ains the po s sible failure of risky decision."'*' Thus the group accepts a h i g h e r risk level than the Individual be ca use the individual is d et erred by gre ater feelings of re sponsibility for failure. The eviden ce in support of this hypothesis i s , for the most part, indirect. Kogan and W a l l a c h come to pr e fe r this e xp l an a ti o n by e l i m i n a t i n g to their s a t i s f a ct i on other i n t e r ­ pr etation, and b ecause this h ypothesis is consist ent w i th the way in which mobs act. 2 The little direct evidence Kogan and W al l a c h can marshall in support o f the d i ffusion-ofr esponslbillty hypothesis rests on the necessity of group ■3 d is c us s io n for e li c it i ng the risky-shift. But more li 5 recent studies by Bateson and Flanders and Thistl ew a it e have found as strong a group shift t oward risk w he n subjects M. A. Wallach, N. Kogan, and R. B. Burt, "Can Group Members Recognize the Effe cts of Group D is c us s io n Upon Risk Taking?" Jo ur nal of E xperimental Social P s y c h o l o g y , 1 (1965), 395. 2 A rev iew of the Kogan and Wa llach po s it i on is a v a i l ­ able in R. Brown, Social Psychology (New York: Free Press, ---------- ------1965), 656-708. 3 D. G. Marquis, "Individual Responsibility and Group Decisions Involving Risk," Industrial Management R e v i e w , 3 (1962), 8-23; and Wallach, Kogan and Burt, "Can Group Members Recognize the Effects." il N. Bateson, "Familiarization, Group Discussion, and Risk Taking," Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 2 (1966), 119-129. 5 J. P. Flanders and D. L. Thistlew aite, "Effects of F am i liarization and Group Discussion Upon Risk-Taking," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y , 5 (1967), 91-98. 28 were not involved in group discussions but were merely asked to p r epare arguments for group debate. The leadership hypothesis is supported by Collins and Guetzkow* and is ba s ed on correlational evidence that riskier 2 members of the group are p e r c e i v e d as more s el f -a s su r ed ■3 and as more influential members of the groups. done by Nordhoy, In a study conservative shifts in risk were found in some groups and these same groups s ti p ul a te d that the more conservative members of the group had been the most i nf l ue n ­ tial. Influence in the group may be due to w h i c h way the group will shift. It seems now that the leadership hypothesis may be a partial e xp l an a ti o n of risky-shift but, as Kogan and Wallace put it, after failing to replicate the e a r l i e r find­ ings in support of the leadership hy pothesis, "It can hardly qualify as the sole cause of g r o u p -i n du c ed shifts towa rd enhanced risk-t aking." ^ B . E. Collins and H. Guetzkow, A Social Psychology of Group Processes for D e c i s i o n - M a k i n g (New York: Wil ey, 196*0. p G. Clausen, "Risk T a k i n g in Small Groups" (unpublished Doctoral d i ssertation, University of Michigan, 1965). ■^M. A. Wallach, N. Kogan, and D. J. Bern, "Diffus ion of Respo nsibility and Level of Risk Ta k i n g in Groups," Journal of Abnormal and Social P s y c h o l o g y , 65 (1962), 75-86; V. R i m , "R isk-Taking and Need for Ach ievement," Ac ta P s y c h o l o g i e s , 21 (1963), 108-115; Y. Rim, "Personality and Group Decisions Involving Risk," Psychological R e c o r d , 1 -4 (196*0 , 37-**5; and Y. Rim, "Social Attitudes and R i s k - M a k i n g ," Human Relations, 17 (196*0 , 259-265. a F. Nordhoy, "Group Interaction in D e c i s i on - Ma k in g Under Risk" (unpublished Master's thesis, Massachusetts Insti­ tute of Technology, School o f Industrial Management, 1962). 5 Kogan and Wallach, "Risk T ak i ng As a Function of the Situation, the Person, and the Group," 260. ?9 The rationality hypothesis assumes that in group di s ­ cussion errors are e li m in a t e d and more infor mation about the task is c ommunicated so that Individuals will make a more rational choice o f risk level. The average level of i n f o r m a ­ tion about the task will be increased. is consist ent with Ba te son 1 This in terpretation and Flanders and Thistle waite 2 cited above, in which individuals restudied and p r ep a re d argu­ ments the Bern, Wallach and Kogan for group debate. However, 3 study^ w i th risks o f physical pain s hould have p r od u c e d a more conservative risk shift if the rationality hypothesis is ten ­ able . The evi dence on the risky-shift phenom e no n seems to be more and more consistent wi th the last hypothesis to be con­ sidered - the cultural value hypothesis. Several times in this review, eviden ce has indicated that value considerations are generic to risk decisions. Studies wi th the Choice Dilemm as reveal rhetoric in group d is ­ cussions wh i ch is highly ev al u at i ve and influential. For example: "Life is not s t a t i c . ” "Nothing ventured, n ot h i n g g a i n e d . ” "Don't be such a s t i c k - i n - t h e - m u d . ” The persis t en c e of this evaluative aspect of risk taking has i4 led Brown and others to ask if risk itself is an American ^Bateson, loc. c l t . 2 Flanders and T h i s t l e w a i t e , loc. c l t . 3 Bern, W al l ac h and Kogan, loc. c l t . 4 B r o w n , Social P s y c h o l o g y . 30 value. Brown's answer Is that perhaps moderate risk Is, In fact, a value. H i n d s 1 found that subjects consistently rated themselves riskier than other people like them. They perceived that they were b e i n g daring in their choice of a risk level, and whe n they later found out they were not, the subjects opted for a less conservative level. In a study by L ev i n g e r and 2 Sch n eider subjects admi red choices riskier than their own. Brown postula t es that: Riskiness is indeed a cultural value but. . .cultural values cannot be r ea lized in concrete situations until they are specified. The functi on of the group discus s io n . . .is chiefly informative. It teaches the individual how to be risky in the present concrete task; it gives spec ificity to the v a l u e . 3 Some of the implications of this theory are that d e c i ­ sion making, especi a ll y in terms of risk, needs to be ex amined in specific, concrete situations. Each si t uation elicits values or value clusters wh i c h are p e r c e i v e d to be linked to each alter native in the decision. be value decisions value. At base, risk decisions nay and the prefer e nc e for risk may itself be a The risky-shift may be ex plained as the competition of the value of risk w it h moral values. 1W. C. Hinds, "I ndividual and Group Decisions in Gambling: Situations" (unpublished Master 's thesis, Massach usetts Insti­ tute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1962). 2 G. L e vi n ge r and D. J. Schneider, "Test of the 'Risk Is a Value' Hypothesis," Journal o f Personality and Social P s y c h o l o g y . 11 (1 9 6 9 ), ^Brown, Social P s y c h o l o g y , 702. 14 G. R. Madaras and D. J. Bern, "Risk and Conserv a ti s m Group Decision Making," Journal of Experimental Social Ps y chol­ ogy, 4 (1968), 350-366. 31 Recently, Stoner has reported evidence In favor of the value hypothesis. He offers a more comprehensive explanation of the risky-shift phenom e no n w i t h i n the context o f the cul­ tural value hypothesis. S t on e r explains that the value hy pothesis can deal with both conservative and risky shifts. Risky-shifts arise because of the domin ance of values favoring the risky al ternative; cautious shifts come from the dominance of values fav oring the cautious alternative; and the absence o f a systematic shift w ould be e xp l ai n ed by the failure of the p r o b l e m to engage, in a consistent manner, values f av oring one alte rnative o v er the other.l This is not an ex. post found subjects' facto explanation, in that Stoner perceptions o f t he i r own relative riskiness were a good p r ed i ct o r of the group shift. The value hypothesis accounts for much of the evidence compiled on the risky-shift phenomenon. Bateson 2 It explai ns the "3 and Flanders and T h i s t l e w a i t e J findings on the deve lopment of a p o sition for later debate as an o b s e r v i n g of a g r eater consistency be t we e n alternatives and the values the individual holds. The Rabow e^t al study, which d emonstrated that the i n t r o du c t io n of ethical dimensions is not required in order for groups to demons tr a te co ns ervative shifts, is consistent wit h the value hypothesis. Also relevant here is ■'■J. A. F. Stoner, "Risky and Cautious Shifts in Group Decisions: The Influence of Wide ly Held Values," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y , 4 (1968), ^55* 2 Bateson, loc. c l t . ■3 JFlanders and Thistlewaite, loc. clt. J. Rabow, F. J. Fowler, Jr., D. L. Bradford, M. A. Hofeller, and Y. Shibuya, "The Role of Social Norms and Leadership in Risk-Taking," Sociometry, 29 (1966), 16-27. 32 Teger and P r u i t t ’s obser vation that in the Kogan and Wallach Choice Dilemmas the original pos ition on the 12 items is correlated wi th subsequent group shift In other words, [r « -.89 p^.001].^" items that are initially risky tend to exhibit risky shifts, and vice versa. In ga m bling and other de c is i on si tuations the value hypothe sis would be of little help in u n d e r st a nd i ng risk d e c i ­ sion, but on the ot her hand, there is a great deal of evidence that for life situations w h i c h engage wid ely held values, the value hyp othesis is most useful. Summary and Concl usion The research on risk- ta k in g b e h a v i o r became a general topic of concern to psychologists in about 1959. Since then, a consid er a ti o n of situational and personality components led to in v estigation of group influences, especially the riskyshift phenomenon. It appears now, that no g e n e r a l i z a b l e , simple relationship exists b et w ee n si tuational or personality variable and risk level. However, m e d i a t i n g or m od e ra t in g variables do make some relationships clear. The studies of ri sky-shift phenom e no n and others suggest that an Important m ed i at i ng consideration is the value constellation associated with risky and conservative alternatives. Further, research should center on the interactions of values, personality, situatlonally unique components. Perhaps, investigators and should ^A. I. T e ge r and D. G. Pruitt, "Components of Group Risk T a k i n g , ” Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y , 3 (1967), 189-205; and A. t. Teger, D. ti~. Pruitt, R. St. Jean, and G. Haaland, "A R e -e x amination o f the Fa miliarization H y p o t h ­ esis In Group Risk-Taking," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y . 1969, in press. 33 talk about, for example, risk taking of anxious Individuals in the Department of Defense or defensive teachers with value dilemmas In educational confronted situations. The literature reveals that further research in the area of risk t aking should be concerned with the unique values and situational circumstances that are inherent in specific d ec i si o n- m ak i ng elements. That is, risk t aking even in one individual will be different, the risk alternatives for example, d e p e n d i n g upon in what situation are present. a teacher may opt In educational situations, for a risk level that is sig­ nifica ntly di fferent than the level that teacher chooses wh en he takes on the role o f a s t oc k ho l de r or parent, or for that matter, a student. Ri s k - t a k i n g studies that investigate the educational sphere have not b e en forthcoming. Before anything of importance can be said about the risk ta k in g of professional educators, the value constellations of a l t e r n a ­ tives and the si tuati onally unique aspects of educational decisi on m a ki n g need to begin to be investigated. CHAPTER III THE DESIGN This chapter contains a descri pt i on of the sample and the instruments; a d iscussion of the development of the experimental instrument and the procedures used to es tablish its reliability; the testable hypotheses; and an explanation of the procedure used in the collection, analys is and in t er ­ pretation of the data. The Sample The po p ul a ti o n fr om which the sample was chosen were college students at M ic higan State University. these subjects were s t udying to become teachers. Specifically, They enrolled in E d uc ation 200, the first course in the teacher training sequence at M i chigan State University. Those s u b­ jects who en tered the special classes of E d uc ation 200 were selected at random from all those who en rolled in Education 200 spring term. There is no reason to believe that the special section subjects diffe red in any systematic way from regular subjects. All subjects in the study were interested in b ec oming teachers. None had taken any ed u cation course previously. Some students had t e aching or q u a s i - t e a c h i n g experience 35 previously, but previo u s e xp e ri e nc e was rare and appears to have become e q ui v al e nt in each subgroup thr ough r a n d o m i z a ­ tion . The age range was 19 years old to 51 y e a r s , but here again, the vast m a jo r i t y of the stud ents were 19 to 22 years of age. Two h u nd r ed In all, fifty-one w er e male, (over 99 pe r cent) 57^ subjects were used. and 323 were female. The E d u c a t i o n 200 E xp e ri e n c e E d u c a t i o n 200 at M i c h i g a n State Univer s it y is an e d u ­ cational p s yc h o l o g y course w h i c h attempts to p re p ar e i n di ­ viduals to b e c o m e good teachers by c o n c e n t r a t i n g on b u il d i n g c ompetency in i ns t r u c t i o n a l design. Stud ents are taught to make b e h a v i o r a l a s sessments, write a p p r o p ri a te b e h a v i o r a l objectives, and de v el o p strategies to a c c o m p l i s h these objectives. Of at least equal importa n ce to the planners ers of E d u c a t i o n 200 is b u i l d i n g t e a c h e r trainees' of t he m se l ve s and t e a c h ­ awareness and the value systems of other individuals. The course is d i v i d e d into two parts, the task dema nds of t ea c hi n g and the p e rs o na l d em ands of teaching. The task demands are the more cognit i ve as pects of the course d e s ­ cribed above. The personal demands are included to b r in g about a ff e ct i ve changes. The course designers hope to p r o ­ duce tea chers who will address themselves more ve hemently to social issues and wh o will change ed u ca t i o n to be more relevant to children. change frequ ently and The vehicle to cause this i3 d i s c u s s i o n and analysis of an individual's value 36 system. Appendix B, page 10*1, shows a value inventory which students fill out at the b e g i n n i n g and end of E du c at i on 200. The students compare their own rankings to see if any value change has ensued. O ther materi als of E d u c a t i o n 200 which reflect the concern for values are in A p pendix B. The special classes of E du c at i on 200 are centered even more on values. The students in these sections attend no lecture as the re gu lar students do, but in stead have more small group sessio ns which are o rg a ni z ed around the c o n s i d e r a ­ tion o f their own and o th e r individuals' value systems. A typical ou tline of a ten w e e k term for special section s t u ­ dents is shown in Figures 3*1 and 3.2. The purpose of this e x p l a n a t i o n of the E d u c a t i o n 200 experience is not to evaluate if, in fact, value change occurs, but instead to d e m o n s t ra t e to the r eader that value change in educa t io n al si tuations is intended to oc c ur as a result of E d u c a t i o n 200. The reader will recall from the review of the literature in C ha p te r II of this thesis that the values co n si d e r e d to be a s s o ci a te d wi t h al te rnatives in decision m a k i n g have a pr o fo u n d effect on the ris kiness of that decision. Ed u ca t i o n 200 purports both In values and risk levels. that the special to pr od uce changes Course planners also claim classes of E d u c a t i o n 200 change students even more. Hence, teachers' E du c ation 200 is an important part o f the future develop m en t al period. area of Inquiry The course is an app ropriate for risk t aking in the educational sphere. 37 FIGURE 3.1 S ug g es t ed R eading Schedule Summer Sections 1, 2, 5, and 6 Time Table 1.0 COMMUN IC A TI O N W o r k b o o k : Course Objectives *Joy •Sensory Awakening •Games People Play 2.0 A S SE S SM E NT •Death at an Early Age 36 Children •How Ch i ldren Fall •Lord of the Flies (p. •Summerhlll 3-0 T E AC H I N G ROLE (POWER) •Th e Power Elite *4.0 L I ST E NI N G EAR •W o r k b o o k : Values (p. 9-56) 5.0 TE A C HE R 'S ROLE (8*4) W o r k b o o k : Born Female (p. 85-99) 6.0 R A CI S M A ut obiography of M a l c o l m X M a n c h l l d In the Promlsed~~Tand •Black Power •Black ftage~ •The W r e t c h e d of the Ea rth •The M a n Who Cried "I a m " •The Souls of Black Folk Politics of Protest' 7.0 S TU DENT Student a3 Nigger McKee fteport ( H a n d o u t ) •T e ac h in g as a Subversive Activity •Halls o f Yearning 8.0 ACTION PROJECTS 9-0 ACTION PROJECTS 10.0 OPEN •Recommended Readings 1-3) 38 F I G U R E 3.2 A CTION P R O J E C T TITLE: P er s on a l O b j e c t i v e PURPOSE: Yo u will, w i t h i n a few weeks, ha ve an o p p o r t u n i t y to p a r t i c i p a t e In an a c ti o n project. In p r e p a r a ­ tion for that e x p e r i e n c e , y ou s h o u l d b e g i n to i de n t if y some p e r s o n a l go als that y ou w o u l d like to a t t a i n and to fo r mu l at e t h e m into p o s s i b l e objectives. DI RECTIONS: 1. List three value areas o f p e r s o n a l concern. A ._________________________________________________ B ._________________________________________________ C ._________________________________________________ 2. Id e nt i fy a p e r s o n a l concern. HINT: A value c on f li c t that arose d u r i n g the small group d i s c u s s i o n s , a b e h a v i o r y o u as a t ea c he r w o u l d w an t to lo ok at more closely, or a skill y ou as a t e a c h e r n e e d to develop. 3- U s i n g y o u r concern, w r i t e a b e h a v i o r a l o b j e c ­ tive. R e m e m b e r the d e s c r i p t i o n of an o b j e c ­ tive has three e s s e n t i a l pa r ts : a termi na l b e h a v i o r s t a t e d in u n a m b i g u o u s m e a s u r a b l e p e r f o r m a n c e terms, the c o n d i t i o n s u n d e r w h i c h the b e h a v i o r i3 to occur, and the cr i te r i o n of a c c e p t a b l e perfo r ma n ce . 39 I nstrumentation Two In struments were used to measure changes In risk taking. The first, the K ogan and Wa l la c h C h o l c e - D l l e m m a s , will be discussed next. The second, the exp erimental Inst ru­ ment, will then be considered. The Kogan and W allach Instrument A d et ailed d es c ri p ti o n of the g r ou p - a d m i n i s t e r e d Cholce- Dllemmas pr o cedure instrument may be dix A. found in A p p e n ­ Earlier research with this instru ment was reported in Wall ach and Kogan; 3 Kogan and Bern. 1 Kogan and Wallach; 2 and Wallach, The C h ol c e-Dllemmas are a series of 12 life situations In wh ich subjects .indicate the lowest odds they would accept for selecting a risky, but d e si rable alternative w he n given the choice o f a more certain, but less desirable alternative. The subject's s e le ction of the pr o ba bi l it y level for the success of the risky alternative w h i c h wo u ld make him choose it reflects that subject's "deterrence of failure" for him ^M. A. W a l l a c h and N. Kogan, "Aspects of Judgment and Decision-Making: Interrelat i on s hi p s and Changes With Age," Behavioral S c i e n c e . 6 (1961), 23-36. 2 N. Kogan and M. A. Wallach, "The Effect of Anxiety on Relations B etween Subjective Age and Caution In an O l de r S a m ­ ple," In Psycho p at h ol o gy of A g i n g , ed. by P. H. Hoch and J. Zubin (toew York: Gtrune ana Stratton, 1961). 3 M. A. Wallach, N. Kogan, and D. J. Bern, "Group I n fl u ­ ence on Individual Risk Taking ," Journal of Abnormal and Social P s y c h o l o g y , 65 (1962), 75-BF^ 4 N. Kogan and M. A. Wallach, Risk Taking: A Study in Cognition and Personality (New York! H o l t , Rinehart and W i n s t o n , 1964 ) , 2E~. ! 40 in a partic ul a r decis i on area. J Levels of probability pro- vided for the success of the risky alternative are 1 in 10, 3 in 10, 5 in 10, 7 in 10, and 9 in 10. If a subject refuses to gamble on the risky alternative, no m a t t e r what the p r o b ­ abilities, a score of 10 in 10 is assigned to the item. Higher scores are associated with greater conservatism. The range of scores on the Cholce-Dllemmas can be 12 to 120, wi th me an scores typically in the high 60's. Authors of the C h o l c e - Dl l em m a Instrument have reported corrected split-h a lf reliabilities ranging from s am p l e s 1 and test-retest reliabilities and .82. .53 to .80 for various (one week) of .78 In terms of validity, relationships wi t h other risk-taking b eh a vi o rs , ^ and other types of ri sk-related phenomena have be e n demonstrated. The Experimental Instrument The experimental Instrument is p a tt e rn e d after the Kogan and Wa llach procedure, except that the dilemmas of choice are all concerned w it h the d ec ision m a ki n g of teachers. The Kogan and W a l l a c h Instrum ent 1 b a general test of risk taking. of life. Its items are d ra w n from many di fferent si tuations On the o t h e r hand, the experimental Instrument ^■Kogan and Wallach, Risk T a k i n g ; and Wallach and Kogan, "Aspects of Judgment." 2 Wallach, Kogan and Bern, "Group Influence." ■* Kogan and Wallac h, Risk T a k i n g . ii Kogan and Wallach, "Effect of Anxiety;" and Wallach and Kogan, "Aspects of Judgment." 41 purports to measure risk t aking In educational situation dilemmas. The 12 Items of the ex perimental Instrum ent were selected by the following procedure. Two forms of the e xperimental Instrument were constructed, each form c o n t a i n ­ ing 12 Items. Each form was admini s te r ed to a randomly selected sample of E du c at i on 200 students w i n t e r te rm of the 1969-1970 school year. Form I was given to Sample Form II was given to Sample II (n*68). I (n*69); For each Form, ln tercorrelatlons between Items and total score on that were calculated. the form Then the ln te r co r relatlons for all 24 Items were ranked, the 12 Items h a v i n g the highest inter c or r el a tl o n with the assoc i at e d total score b e i n g chosen for Inclus ion In the experi m en t a l Instrument. Appen dices D and E contain the Item pool and the e x pe r im e nt al Instrument. The Item pool was a d m i n i s te r ed In two forms bec ause of the length of the test. The CDC 3600 co mputer at Michigan State Uni versity was used to calculate the Pearson productmoment co rrelation coefficients the pool. for both sets o f 12 items in Those items w hi c h contri bu t ed most to the variance of the total score on each form became the experimental instrument. The in t er c or r el a tl o n matrix was calculated in order to select more homog eneous items Six items were s e lected from each form. for the instrument. Table 3-1 shows the correlations of the items in the pool wi th their corres po n di n g total score. Those items with a correlation coefficient of .453 and above became the ex perimental instrument. 42 Table 3*1*— Pearson product -m o me n t correlations of Item pool with associ a te d total s c o r e s . Items 1-12 C orrelation With Associated Total Scores •1 .57147 2 *3 •4 Correlation W it h Associated To tal Scores Items 13-24 .45174 .35279 13 •14 .45305 15 . 38749 .55677 16 .27798 -.05445 .52141 .45749 5 •6 .15951 17 .49538 •18 •7 8 .55269 .41926 •19 20 .51254 9 .09474 21 .26102 10 .22333 •22 •11 .48706 12 .35249 •23 •24 .48699 .54484 •Selected for experimental .43220 .52781 Instrument. Reli ability Studies In order to have a still more accurate estimate of the reli ability of the Instrument, a nother Bastat routine was run on the Michigan State U niversity CDC 3600 computer. responses of the subjects of this study The (Education 200, spring term) on bo th the Kogan and W a ll a ch and the e x p e r i ­ mental instrument were analyzed. The correlation of the items of both Instruments wi t h their total score is presented In Table 3*2. A separate analysis of var iance was also under taken to compute a Hoyt reliability coefficient. The Hoyt test of reliability is an estimate by analysis of variance of the 43 average reliability of all poss ible s p l i t - h a l v e s . The results are Identical wi th the K u de r -R i ch a rd s on formulation The Hoyt reli ability coefficient is computed by the follow­ ing formula; MS_ - MS tt s_____ si MS_ Table 3.2.— Item correlation w i th total score for both instruments. Items Experimental Kogan and Wall ach 1 .43102 .46909 2 .57108 .57731 3 4 .47105 .43860 .46319 .42912 5 .59497 .38016 6 .149240 7 .52646 .44183 .52161 8 .51264 .47092 9 .57823 .54812 10 .53434 11 .55263 .55642 12 .45439 .37954 Tables .55356 3*3 and 3.4 cont ain the mean squares for subjects, and items and subjects by item for bo t h instruments. result The for the Kogan and Wallach instrument was r^t ■ .71. The reliability of the exp erimental instrument was higher (r tt .77). ! 44 Table 3*3*— Mean squares for subjects and Items on the Kogan and W a l l a c h Instrument. Sources Subjects Items Subjects By Items SS df MS 5,303 h ,221 278 19.07 11 383.78 17,169 3,058 5.61 Table 3***.— Mean squares for subjects and items on the ex perimental instrument. Sources SS MS df Subjects 8 ,**57 29U Items 1,127 11 21,513 3,23** Subjects By Items 28. 77 102. 5 1* 6.65 Procedures of Test Admini st r at i on The almost exclusive reliance on the pretes t- p os t -t e st design In r e search on risk taking Is rather curious. pretest is not indispensable to experimental me t hod.* The Indeed, the alternative design used in this thesis offers the a d di ­ tional advantage of not h a vi n g the ob t ained results depend upon the sensit i zi n g effect of a pretest. This confoun d in g effect of a pretest and post-test administered to the same subject is important to guard against in view of Ba teson's hypothesis that merely i ncreasing the familiarity with the * D . T. Campbell and J. C. Stanley, Ex perimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs for Research ( C h i c a g o : Rand McNally, 1963). 45 elements relevant to a decision on the Cholce-Dllemmas will Increase the riskiness of that d e c i s i o n . 1 In o rder to avoid the co ntamination of prac tice from taking a pretest, it was de ci ded that no subject would take more than one test, one time. The E d uc a ti o n 200 po p ul a ti o n for spring te rm of the 1969-1970 school ye ar was randomly assigned into fourths. The first a d mi n is t ra t io n (1st week) of the Kogan and W al l ac h test was given to one-fourth; an other fourth received the experi m en t al instrument in the first week of class. A similar proce du r e was used for the second administration of the instrument to the remaining naive two-fourths. in Table A d i ag r am of this procedure is contained 3.5. Table 3- 5.— Hypothesized p ro p or t i o n of subject r e s p o n s e s . Kogan and W a llach Experim ental First Admin i st r at i on 1/4 1/4 Second Admin i st r at i on 1/4 1/4 A table of r andom numbers was used to stack the two instruments and two unrelated questionnaires. E ac h instructor was given a pile of instruments to hand out to his students as they took their seats in the classroom on the first day of class. A cover sheet requesting the student's name was 1N. Bateson, "Familiarization, Group Discussion, and Risk Taking," Journal of Experimental Social P s y c h o l o g y , 2 (1966 ), 119 -129": 46 stapled to both instruments used in this study and the unrelated questionnaires. This was done to pr eserve the a n o ­ nymity of the subject so that a more honest and frank response was engendered. These cover sheets were sepa rated from the q uestionnaires and tests by the subjects during the class period p r io r to r e tu r ni n g th em to the instructor. sheets The cover from the two unrelated questionnaires served as a list of students who had not taken e ither the Kogan and Wa llach general test of risk taking or the experimental, educat i on - sp e c if i c test. In the last we e k o f the ten week term, these cover sheets were random ly st a pled either to the Kogan and Wallach or the ex p erimental in struments and were administered for the second time. Because some of the subjects who were present at the first administration were absent at the second, a certain amount of mortality exists. The date of the second ad m in i s­ tration was not annou nced to the students. There is no reason to suspect that the mortality is re lated directly or Indirectly to the subjects' Table ri s k- t ak i ng propensities. 3.6 shows the actual n umber of subjects who responded to the Instrument. Table 3 .6 .— Actual n u mb e r of subject r e s p o n d e n t s .a Kogan and Wallach Ex perimental First Admini stration 195 162 Second Administration 100 117 aTotal N - 574. 47 Testable Hypotheses The following are the testable forms of the hypotheses that were p r es ented In Chapter I. They are stated In the null form. Hypothesis I .— There will be no dif ference between scores on the first ad m inistration and the second a d mi n is ­ tration of the experimental instrument. Hypothesis I I .— There will be no difference b e tween scores on the first ad m in i st r at i on and the second a d m i n i s ­ tration of the Kogan and Wallach instrument. Hypothesis the gain scores I I I .— There will be no difference between from the first to the second ad m inistration when the experimental and the Kogan and Wa l l a c h instrument are compared. H ypothesis classes I V .— There will be no di fference between for the comparison of the Kogan and Wa llach instru­ ment with the expe rimental instrument at the first ad m in i s­ tration. Hypothesis V .— There will be no difference bet ween gain scores from the first a dm i ni s tr a ti o n to the Becond administration in the special classes w he n the Kogan and Wallach and the experimental instrument are compared. Hypothesis V I .— There will be no d ifference between males and females on the experimental instrument. Hypothe sis V I I .— There will be no difference between males and females on the Kogan and Wa llach instrument. 48 Hypothesis V I I I .— There will be no difference b e tween the d ifference scores of males and females wh en both i n st r u­ ments are compared. Analysis In order to test the statistical hypotheses the Finn Analysis of Variance was computed. This four-way analysis of variance pr o cedure separated the four fixed factors into 16 unequal cells. Comparisons be tw een approp ri a te l y weighted cell means we re calculated and corresponding probability levels we re determined so that the null hypotheses could be tested. The analysis of variance was the most powerful, a p pr o p­ riate model to test the hypotheses be cause this proced ure allowed for reordering of the basis vectors to achieve a more accurate estimate of their variance and be cause the nature of the data collected seemed to warr ant the necessary a ss u m p ­ tions . The assumptions of the analysis of va riance procedure and the reasons for accepting them follow: Normality A Bastat routine run on the sample data on the Michigan State University CDC 3600 computer indicated that the d i s t r i ­ butions of scores for b o t h instruments approached normality. Skewness and kurtosls computations are given in Table 3.7. Ideal skewness and kurtosls would be 0 and +3* r e s ­ pectively. But even if these data didn't indicate normality, the relatively large number of subjects in the sample (N«574) H9 would lea d one to a s s u m e It b e c a u s e o f the Ce ntral Limit Theorem. As Hays puts It: I nf e re n c e s made about m ea n s that are v al i d in the case o f n o r m a l p o p u l a t i o n s are also v a l i d e v e n w h e n the forms of the p o p u l a t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n s d e pa r t c o n s i d e r a b l y from n o rmal, p r o v i d e d that the n in ea ch sa m p l e is r e l a ­ ti v e l y la rge.i Table 3 * 7 . — S k e w n e s s and k u r t o s l s of s ample o n e x p e r i m e n t a l and K o g a n and W a l l a c h Instruments. K o g a n an d W a l l a c h Experimental Ske w n e s s Kurtosls - 0 .0 5 1 ^ 3**4267 0.1593 2.7959 I n d e p e n d e n c e of E r r o r C o m p o n e n t s The d e s i g n of this study w a r r a n t s this assump ti o n. no case were there any r e p e a t e d m e a s u r e s e i t h e r instru m en t . a m o n g su b j e c t s manner. on s ub j ec t s w i t h E a c h i n d i v i d u a l was g i v e n only one test. All r e s p o n s e s w e r e n o n - g r o u p responses. d i s c u s s e d the Items. In N o n e of the classes It is d o u b t f u l that any i n t e r a c t i o n c o n t a m i n a t e d the findings in any s y s t e m a t i c S u b j e c t s w e r e n e s t e d w i t h i n all l evels o f all factors. E qu a li t y of V a r i a n c e The v a r i a n c e s of e a c h cell in the s a mp l e w e re and w er e found not to d i f f e r s i g n i f i c a n t l y . ^"W. Hays, S t a t i s t i c s Winston, 1 9 6 3 )* 378. (New York: Holt, The co m p u t e d fact that Rinehart and 50 the s m a l l e r v a r i a n c e s w e r e lends a d d i t i o n a l support a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s m a l l e r cell n for a c c e p t i n g t hi s a s s u m p t i o n . Summary The p u r p o s e procedures of this c h a p t e r has b e e n to e x p l a i n the and I n s t r u m e n t a t i o n u s e d to fulfill s a m p l e a n d so m e o f its as wa s the E d u c a t i o n characteristics were used in this presentation study were to the s a m p l e w e r e used T he final e x p l a n a t i o n of the m o d e l h er e a n d in C h a p t e r I. T he instru­ along with a and reliability. in a d m i n i s t e r i n g the i n s t r u m e n t s for th e p a r ­ given. s e c t i o n o f this data appropriate use, then reviewed and reasons ticular methodology were The two then considered, of t h e i r d e v e l o p m e n t , T he p r o c e d u r e s dis­ 200 e x p e r i e n c e w h i c h the s a m p l e u n d e r w e n t d u r i n g th e d e v e l o p m e n t a l p er i od . ments the o b j e c t i v e s study. The c ussed, o f this c h a p t e r w a s d e v o t e d to an u s e d to test the h y p o t h e s e s The a s s u m p t i o n s to this m o d e l were presented o f the n a t u r e o f the al so p r e s e n t e d . f o l l o w i n g c h a p t e r w i l l be d e v o t e d to th e p r e s e n t a ­ t io n a n d a n a l y s i s o f t h e d a t a g a t h e r e d in this study. CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS OP THE DATA The data co llected and analyzed by the procedures d e s­ cribed In Chapter III are p re s e n t e d In this chapter. Each of the eight statistical hyp otheses p re s en t ed In Chapter III Is analyzed separately. In order to test all eight hypotheses a Finn analysis of variance was pe r fo r me d on the data. tors (Instrument, administration, The four ba sic fac­ sex, class) and their Interactions were reordered so that each first, second, or third order Interac t io n of Interest w o ul d appear last In the program. This r e or d e r i n g allowed for a more accurate estimate of mean squares. table The omnibus analysis of variance for all Interactions of Interest Is available In Table 4.1. It was decided that the .05 alpha level of signifi cance would be used throughout the analysis. Further Investigation Into what was the nature of the significant Interactions pr esented in Table 4.1 n e ce s si t at e d the use of Sheffe' post-hoc comparison tests for significance. The null hypotheses were rejected if the specific Sheffe comparison did not include zero in its confidence interval at the .05 alpha level. 52 Table 4.1.— Analysis o f variance of Interactions of I n t e r e s t . a M ea n Square tipit 81.6667 42.2954 .0001 0.1170 .0606 .8057 12.3695 6.4062 .0117 Class 8.8192 4.5675 Administration by Instrument Sex by Instrument 9.9009 0.2881 5.1277 0.1492 .0331 .0240 Class by Instrument 2.7020 1.3992 .2374 Administration by Class by Instrument 4.2597 2.2061 .1381 Error 1.9308 Interaction Instrument A dm i nistration Sex (IASC)b "p" .6995 a All tests run w i th df ■ 1,558 b I - I n s t r u m e n t ; A - A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ; S-Sex; C«Class. In o rder to compute the necessary Sheffe comparisons, cell means and their r espective n's were obtained. The 16 cell m atrix o f this design is pr esented in Table 4.2. L ow e r scores indicate riskier choices. tion of the eight statistical hypotheses Null Hypothesis A co n si d er a ­ follows. 1 There will be no difference be t we e n scores for the first a d mi n i s t r a t i o n and the second ad m inistration on the experimental instrument. The analysis of this hypothesis and hypotheses 2 and 3 necessitated the computation of w ei ghted means for both i n s t r u ­ ments and both administrations. Table 4.3, which follows, serves as a summary of this computation. 53 Table 4.2.— Cell Id entification, frequencies and m e a n item r e s p o n s e s .a Experimental Instrument Class Sex Admin.I Kogan and Wa llach Instrument Admin.II Admin.I Admin.II Total ^ 7- 4 . 0 2 7 ®7«4. 368 n-38 n-73 ®7-5.l4l ^C-5.500 n-4l n-64 X - 4 .697 n-216 3^-4.395 FEMALE ^X -4.786 n-49 n-103 3 % - 5 . 6 2 3 $7-5.293 n-80 n-57 7-5 •051 n -289 3 7-3*259 ^ 7- 4.483 n-5 n-7 ® 7 - 5 . l 8 7 $7-4.878 n-10 n-13 X -4 . 584 n-39 FEMA LE ® 7 - 3 . 6 2 5 ^ 7- 3 . 8 9 5 n-8 n-12 ^ - 5 . 6 3 5 $ 7 - 5 . 306 n-6 n-8 7-4.458 n-34 MALE REGULAR MA LE SPECIAL TOTAL: X - 4 . 375 n-195 X - 4 . 349 n-100 7-5*320 n-117 7-5 •406 n-162 £ L ower means indicate ris kier choices. Table 4.3*— W ei ghted means for instrument by administration. Experimental 7-4.375 7-4.349 .026 Kogan and Wa ll ach 7-5.406 7-5.320 .086 -1.031 - .971 II .06 .026 difference be t w e e n the first and second adminis tration of the experimental significant. rejected. II I-Admin. Admln. I The Admin. Admin. Instrument instrument was found to be not Null hypothesis 1 could not, therefore, be 54 Null H y p o t h e s i s 2 T he r e will be no d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n scores for the first a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and the s ec o nd a d m i n i s t r a t i o n on the Kogan and W a l l a c h instrument. R e f e r r i n g to the p r e v i o u s between administrations Is table, the d i f f e r e n c e .0 8 6 . Thi s d i f f e r e n c e was also s ub j ected to the Scheffe p r o c e d u r e at the found to be not si gnificant. r e j e c t i n g null h y p o t h e s i s Null H y p o t h e s i s .05 alpha level and T h e r e w e r e no g r ou n ds for 2. 3 There will be no d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the ga i n from the first to the s e c o n d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w h e n the e x p e r i m e n t a l and the K o ga n and W a l l a c h I n s t r u m e n t s are compared. F r o m T a b l e 4.3, the d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the g a in scores on the two i n s t r u m e n t s is .06. This d i f f e r e n c e was found to be not s i g n i f i c a n t by the S ch e ff e method. This result was s u r p r i s i n g b ec a u s e the analysis of v ar i an c e i n di c a t e d that the i ns t ru me n t by a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n w a s s i g n i f i ca n t at the .02 level and the first o r d e r i n t e r a c t i o n of the i n s t r u m e n t s cant at the .0001 level! t h e m s e l v e s was s i g n i f i ­ (Table 4.1) F u r t h e r p r o b i n g w i t h the S c h e f f £ c o m p a r i s o n s re v ea l e d that the si g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s we re w i t h i n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s and b e t w e e n instruments. Both the -1.031 d i f f e r e n c e at a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 1 and the -.971 d i f f e r e n c e at a d m i n i s t r a t i o n 2 were found to be significant. 55 So that a still more a c c u r a t e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the instrument by a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n could be a sc e r t a i n e d , ano t he r a n alysis of v a r i a n c e was run on the CDC 3600 computer. This a n al y si s c o n c e r n e d only the Interaction. M e a n scores as p r e v i o u s l y computed. for the cells were e x ac t ly the same Scheffe ences a m o n g the cells we re sons were made w i t h instrument/administration comparisons also made. for the d i f f e r ­ T hese S c h e f f £ c o m p a r i ­ 3*571 de g re e s of freedom r a t h e r than 1,558 bec a us e the d a t a were r e c o n s t r u c t e d into a t wo - w a y analysis of variance. No change in the p r e v i o u s l y made a3 a result o f the new compu ta t io n s. all simple c o m p a r i s o n s cited c o n c l u s i o n was Table **. ** shows for t h e i n s t r u m e n t by a d m i n i s t r a t i o n Interaction. Table *1.4.— Si m pl e c o m p a r i s o n s for i n st r um e nt by a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n (IA). K o g a n and W a l l a c h i Experimental Admin. **.375 J H Z K Admin. **.375 1 Admin. *** 3**9 2 Admin. 5.*106 1 1 Admin. Admin. 2 1 Admin. 2 i i 5.320 | **•3**9 5.**06 -.026 1.031* •9**5* 1 .0 5 7* .971* PC W CL. X w ac o se o 5 j :* .026 Admin. 2 5.320 Significant at A '/ / V ///, -1. 0 31 * -1.057a - - .9**5* .0005. .971* w/A .086 -.086 /////> 56 A summary of the Scheffe* c o mp a ri s on s three nu ll hy p o t h e s e s Is p r e s e n t e d In T ab l e 4.5. p r e s e n t a t i o n o f the In t e r a c t i o n s hypotheses for the first A visual c o n s i d e r e d w i t h these is p r e s e n t e d in F i gu r e 4.1. Table 4 . 5 . — S ch e ff e c o m p a r i s o n s for the in s tr u m e n t by a d m i n i s t r a t i o n i n t e r a c t i o n (IA).a Comparison 9 S V V a r ('t' ) P Ek1 - EA2 .026 •333 NS K AX - K A 2 .086 .322 NS (EA1 - E A 2 ) - (K A1 - K A 2 ) .060 .464 NS EA1 - KA1 -1.0 01 .285 <<05 ea2 - .971 .365 <^05 - ka 2 a All c o m p a r i s o n s ma d e at the Key: .05 a lp h a level. E ■ Experimental K * K o g a n and W a l l a c h A ■ Administration Null H y p o t h e s i s 4 There wil l be no d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n cl as ses for the c om p ar i s o n o f the K o g a n and W a l l a c h w i t h the e x p e r i m e n t a l in strument at the first ad m i n i s t r a t i o n . To a n a l y z e this h y p o t h e s i s w e i g h t e d m e a n s classes of E d u c a t i o n 200 for both a d m i n i s t r a t i o n w e r e computed. for the two i n s t r u me n ts o n the first T h e s e means are p r e s e n t e d in Table 4.6. T h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n the two cl as ses or sections of E d u c a t io n 200 for the Ko g a n and W a l l a c h i nstrument was The c o r r e s p o n d i n g d i f f e r e n c e for the e x p e r i m e n t a l .023. i nstrument 57 Figure **.1.— Instrument by a d m i n is t ra t io n inter a ct i on 5-5 5.4 K ogan and Wa l l a c h (IA). P-NS 5.3 5.2 z < 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 -1.031 Q W x 4.7 o a 4 -6 * 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 -.971 P-NS Ex perimental 4.1 Admin. Admin. 1 2 Table 4 .6 . — We i gh t e d means for instrument by class in teraction at the first administration. Regular Special Regu lar-Special Kogan and W a llach 5-409 5.386 .023 Experimental 4.471 3.487 .984 Instrument .961 was .984. The difference b e t w e e n these scores (-.961) was analyzed with the S c h e f f £ pr oc e du re and found to be s i g n i f i ­ cant at the .05 alpha level. Therefore, null hypothesis 4 was rejected and the following hypothesis accepted: 58 Hjj: At the first admini st r at i on there is more of a difference in scores between classes with the experimental instrument than the Kogan and Wa l la c h instrument. This finding was exp lored further with the Scheffe technique. The diffe rences b et w ee n classes on each i ns t ru ­ ment at the first a d mi n is t ra t io n were examined. and Wallach difference of level. The Kogan .023 was not significant at the .05 The diffe rence in classes b et w e e n the instruments is due to the risk ier responses of the special classes as opposed to the regular classes on the experimental instrument. A graph of the interac t io n of instrument by class at the first a d mi n i s t r a t i o n is available in Figure 4.2. Figure 4. 2.— Instrument by class inter ac t io n at the first administration. 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 z 4.7 4.6 4.5 a 4.4 w Eh 4.3 K 4.2 o ►H 4.1 w 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 Kogan and Wallach P«NS A P < . 05 Experimental P < .05 Regular Special 59 Null Hypothesis 5 There will be no di fference b e tw e e n gain scores from the first a dm i ni s tr a ti o n to the second a d mi n is t ra t io n in the special classes w h en the Kogan and Wa l lach and the ex p e r i ­ mental instruments are compared. Data for this hypoth e si s were gathered by computing the we i g h t e d means for the ad m in i st r at i on by class by instru ment interaction. Table 4.7 contains the results o f this computation. Table **.7.— W e ig h t e d means for instrument by admini stration by class interaction (IAC). Admini s tr a ti o n 2 Admini s tr a ti o n 1 Reg. Spec. Reg. Spec. Reg. Spec. Reg. Spec. Kogan and Wallach 5.409 5.386 .023 5.380 5.013 .267 Experimental 4.471 3.487 .984 4. 383 4.122 .261 Instrument .006 -.961 The difference be t w e e n the Kogan and Wa l l a c h special classes across a dm i n istrations was difference for the experimental -.635* .373* The corresponding instrument was calcula ted as The difference b e tween these scores Is 1 .0 0 8 . The Scheffe^ comparison e stablished that this difference was not significant at the .05 level. Consequently, the null hypothesis could not be rejected. A graphic repres entation of the difference in gain scores in the special classes from the first to the second 60 ad ministration is shown in the following figure. The closer the lines are to being parallel the less signi ficant i3 the interaction. Although the lines on the graph re p resenting the instruments seem to depart considerably from parallelism, they represent the smallest cell n*s in the study. the S c h e f f ^ confidence interval at the .05 level Hence, (1.33) is rather large and the d ifference is not significant. Figure 4.3.— Instrument by admini st r at i on Interac t io n for special classes. 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 Kogan and Wallach A\ P-NS Experimental Admin. 1 Admin. A summary of the Scheffe comparisons used to test hypotheses 4 and 5 is pr e sented in tabular form on the following page. 2 61 Table *4.8.— S c h e f f ^ comparisons for the instrument by admin­ istration by class interaction (IAC).a S \j Var ( *p) Comparison (k c 1- k c 2 )-( e c 1- e c 2 ) P -.961 .9*46 <.05 1 c 1- k a 1 c 2 .023 .672 NS E A 1 C1_ E A 1 C2 .98*4 .6*19 <.05 1.008 1.330 NS ka (KC2A 1- K C 2A 2 )-(EC2A 1- E C 2A 2 ) aAll comparisons made at the Key: E ■ Experimental K * Kogan and W a llach A * A dm i nistration .05 alpha level. C1 * C2 " R eg u la r Classes Special Classes Null Hypothesis 6 There will be no difference b etween males and females on the experimental instrument. In order to test null hypotheses 6, 7 and 8 the weighted means for the in teraction of the instrument by sex factors were calculated. They are available in the fo llowing table. Table *4.9.— We ighted means for instrument by sex i n te r ­ action (IS). Instrument Males Females Males-Females Experimental *4.107 *4.552 -. Kogan and Wallach 5.233 5.*486 -.253 *4445 -.192 62 It can be readily o b served that males ten ded to respond In a more risky m a nn e r on both Instruments. hypothe sis 6, the observed difference to the S ch e ff £ pr ocedure at the ference was significant. To test null (-.4^5) was subjected .05 level to see If that d i f­ The Sche ff€ confidence interval called for -.321. Therefore, Judged significant at the the ob served di f fe r en c e was .05 level. Null hypothesis 6 was rejected and the following alternative hypothesis was accepted: Hg: Males score riskier than females on the e x p e r i ­ mental instrument. Null Hypothesis 7 There will be no difference be tween males and females on the Kogan and W a ll a ch instrument. The o b served difference (-.253) was also set in the Scheff£ confidence interval and found to be not significant. The null hypothesis was not rejected. Figure *4.4 is a graph of the i nt e ra c ti o n of sex with both instruments. The read er will re m em b e r that null hypothesis 7 is also the hypothesis of interest. Because the null hypothesis was not rejected does not indica te that It can be accepted. So that, If it was warranted, a stron ge r statement could be made in support of the hypothesis of Interest, a power test was run. This was possible because the analysis of variance procedure had previously ca lculated the error term. It was decided that a difference of 1.0 in the mea n Item score would 63 Figure 4. 4.— Instrument by sex Intera ct i on (IS) B-.035 P-NS 5. 5. 5. Kogan and Walla* 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. P-NS 4. H. 4. 4. 4. 4. P <.05 Experimentj 4. 4. Females Males represent a real differ e nc e b e t w e e n males and females on the Kogan and W al l ac h instrument. was computed for the non- centrality p ar a me t er s of 1.0 and .5 and at a lp h a levels of .05 and .01. Since 1.0 was decided as the difference and .05 the alpha level, the po w er was computed at null hypothesis could be accepted then at the .965. The .035 level, given the ac ceptance of 1.0 as a meaningful difference. appears, It then, that no real difference exists b e t w e e n males and females' scores on the Kogan and Wa llach instrument. summary of the findings of the power test is pr e sented In Table 4.10. A for null hypothesis 7 64 Table 4 . 10 . — Power test for null hypothe sis 7. Non-Centrality Pa rameters Alpha Levels 1.0 .5 .05 .965 .40 .01 .86 .22 1.07 at .5 difference. 2.15 at 1.0 difference. Null Hypothesis 8 There will be no difference b e t w e e n the difference scores of males and females w h en both Instruments are com­ pared . As Table 4.9 reveals, the difference be t we e n the d i f f e r ­ ence scores on sex is -.192. This value was tested for sig­ ni ficance by the S c h e f f ^ method and found to be not significant. A summary o f the S ch e ff £ comparisons for the tests of hypotheses 6, 7 and 8 is pr es e nt e d in Table 4.11. Table 4. 1 1. - - S c h e f f £ comparisons for the instrument by sex inter ac t io n (IS).a Comparison S Vvart'f) P EM-EP -.445 .321 <•05 KM-KP -.253 . 327 NS (E M - E F )-(K M - K F ) -.192 .458 NS D All comparisons made at Key: E * Experimental K » Kogan and W a ll a ch the .05 alpha M ■ Male P ■ Female level. 65 Su mmary In this chapter the hypot heses sta ted in Ch apter I were stated in their null form and analyzed. Those which could be rejected in the null form were res tated as d i r e c ­ tional, or delta hypotheses. A summary of the results fol lows. Table A. 1 2. — Analysis of variance of in teractions of in t er e s t . a Mean Square •ipti "p" 81.6667 42.2954 .0001 0.1170 .0606 .8057 12.3695 6.4062 .0117 Class 8.8192 4.5675 .0331 Admin is t ra t io n by Instrument 9.9009 .0240 Sex by Instrument 0.2881 5 *1277 0.1492 Class by Instrument 2.7020 1.3992 .6995 .2374 Administration by Class by Instrument 4.2597 2.2061 .1381 Error 1.9308 Interaction Instrument Administration Sex (IASC)b a All tests run wi th df ■ 1,558. b I * I n s t r u m e n t ; A-Admini stration; Null Hypothesis S*Sex; C»Class. 1 .— There will be no d ifference b e tw e en scores for the first a dm i ni s tr a ti o n and the second a dm i ni s tr a ti o n on the experimental i n s t r u ­ ment . The d ifference of .026 in the w e ig h t e d mean item response was found to be not significant at the .05 level. The hy p o t h ­ esis was not rejected. Null Hypothesis 2 .— There will be no d i ff e re n ce b et ween scores for the first a d mi n is t ra t io n and the second admin is t ra t io n on the Kogan and Wallach instrument. 66 The observed difference of .086 in the w e ig h t e d mean item response was subje cted to the Scheffe pr ocedure and found not significant at the Null Hypothesis .05 level. 3 .— There will be no dif ference be t w e e n the gain from the first to the second ad m in ­ istrat ion wh e n the experimental and the Kogan and W al l a c h instruments are com­ pared. The observed difference of the .05 level. .06 was not significant at Analysis of variance found the intera ct i on of instrument and a dm i ni s tr a ti o n to be significant at the level and instrument alone to be significant at the level. .02 .0001 Scheffe post-hoc tests revealed that all simple com­ parisons of the two instruments regardless of a d mi nistration were significant at the .0005 level. It appears that s u b­ jects respo nded d ifferently on the two instruments but not differently at the two administrations. Null Hypothesis *4.— There will be no di f fe re n ce b etween classes for the co m pa r is o n of the Kogan and W a l l a c h with the ex perimental i nstru­ ment at the first administration. The observed difference b e t w e e n the two instruments was -.961. the This difference was .05 level. found to be significant at The following alternative hypothesis was accepted. Hj, : At the first ad m inistration there is more of a difference in scores be t we e n classes wi t h the experim e nt a l instrument than the Kogan and Wal l ac h instrument. It was also found that at the first administration the special classes of Education 200 scored signific antly i (.05) 67 riskier than regular classes on the ex perimental instrument but not on the Kogan and Wa l la c h instrument. Null Hypothesis 5 .— There will be no difference b et w e e n gain scores from the first ad m inistration to the second administration in the special classes w he n the Kogan and Wa l la c h and the experimental instruments are compared. The diffe rence (1.008) was tested with the Scheffe post-hoc procedure at alpha .05 and found to lack significance This difference re pr esented the smallest cell n's in the study Consequently, the S c h e f f £ confidence interval was the largest at the .05 level. There is some qu e s t i o n in the author's mind concerning the effect of an increased sample. But nevertheless, the null hypothesis could not be reject ed at the .05 level. Null Hypothesis 6 .— There will be no difference b etween males and females on the ex perimental instrument The observed difference at the .05 level and the (.445) was Judged significant following al ternative hypothesis was accepted: Hg: Males score ri skier than females on the e x p e r i ­ mental Instrument. Null Hypothesis 7 *— There will be no difference be t we e n males and females on the Kogan and Wallach Instrument. This null hypothesis The observed difference was is also the hypothesis of interest. found to be not significant at .05 The author was interested in ma king a stronger statement about this hypothesis determine Beta. if it was warranted. A power test was run to For the non-centrality parameter of 1.0 and 68 alpha level of .05 the power was calculated at .965* the probability of a Type II error, was therefore The null hypothesis was accepted at the Null Hypothesis .035* .035 level. 8 .— There will be no differences b et w e e n the difference scores of males and females w h e n b ot h Instruments are compared. The observed difference (-.192) was tested for s i gn i fi ­ cance by the S c h e f f £ method at the not significant. Beta, .05 level and found to be Null hypothesis 8 could not be rejected. CHAP TER V SUMMARY, CO NCLUSIONS, AND I MPLICATIONS This study, final chapter will be devoted to a summary of the followed by a discuss i on of the conclusions gener a te d from the analysis of the data, and concluded wi th r e c o m m e n d a ­ tions for further research. Summary Purposes of the Study 1. Instrument The basic p urpose of this study was to develop an to measure risk t ak i ng in educational situations and to compare it to a general test of risk ta king (Kogan and Walla ch's C h o l c e - D l l e m m a s ) to see in what ways the two instruments differed. 2. Closely allied w i t h this pur pose was the desire to ascertain if prosp ective teachers scored differ e nt l y on the two Instruments. 3. The study additionally sought to determine if there existed significant differences between: a. The first and second admin istrations of the instrument. 70 b. Spec ial classes concentrating; on value d e c i ­ sions in ed u ca t io n and regular educational p sy c ho l o gy classes. c. d. Male and female subjects. Interactions of the instruments w it h the three o t h e r basic factors of the study istration, (admin­ class, sex). In o r d e r to explore these re lated purposes, hypotheses were developed. eight These will be discus sed later in this cha pter under Conclusions. Li mitations of the Study 1. Only student s in the first course o f the teacher training sequence at M i ch i g a n State University wer e subjects 2. The study does not con sider other situational or pe rsonality variables w h i c h might affect risk taking. 3. The develo p me n ta l period (Education 200) is not the only input w h i c h could affect the r is k - t a k i n g p r o p e n s i ­ ties of the subjects. Review of the Literature A review of the litera ture for this study consisted of an analysis of the re search done on risk taking in terms of envi ronmental or situa tional factors, individual or organismic factors, and social or group factors. The review indicated that further study of risk taking should include a c o n s i d e ra t io n of the unique situational tors and value alternatives making tasks. fac inherent in specific d e c i s i o n ­ Before anything of importance can be said 71 about the r i s k t a k i n g o f p r o f e s s i o n a l e d u c a t o r s , aspects o f e d u c a t i o n a l the u nique d e c i s i o n m a k i n g n e e d to b e g i n to be Investigated. D es i gn o f the St u dy T h e S a m p l e .— S t u d e n t s M i c h i g a n St a te University, sub j e c t s o f this enrolled in E d u c a t i o n 200 at s p r i n g term, 1 9 6 9 - 1 9 7 0 , w e r e the study. I n s t r u m e n t a t i o n .- - T h e K o g a n and W a l l a c h C h o l c e - D l l e m m a s and an e x p e r i m e n t a l i n s t r u m e n t p a t t e r n e d a f t e r that instru­ ment, but w i t h e d u c a t i o n a l d i l e m m a s , w e r e the two i n s t r u m e n t s o f the study. The K o g a n a nd W a l l a c h g e n e r a l t a k i n g h a d a Hoyt experimental reliability instrument's test o f ri sk coefficient of r t t -.71. r e l i a b i l i t y was c o m p u t e d at The ■•tt--7 7 - P r o c e d u r e .— The s u b j e c t s w e r e r a n d o m l y a s s i g n e d different subject f o urths o f the total E d u c a t i o n took mo re t h a n on e in s t r u m e n t and a d m i n i s t r a t i o n , s i d e r e d — sex and class. of all instrument, into 200 p o p u l a t i o n . o ne time. No B es ides two o t h e r f ac t o r s w e r e co n ­ S u b j e c t s w e r e n e s t e d in all levels factors. A n a l y s i s .— The eight by a n a l y s i s s t a t i s t i c a l h y p o t h e s e s w e r e t es te d of v a r i a n c e and a p p r o p r i a t e Scheffe" co mparisons. Conclusions The following conclusions h a ve b e e n d r a w n from the findings: 1. same p o p u l a t i o n Large (295*2 79 ) , (Education 200) randomly c h o s e n gr o up s o f the score r i s k i e r o n the 72 experimental instrument than the Kogan and W a llach instrument (P<..0001) 2. regardless of administration. No significant differences were found b e t w e e n ad ministrations on either instrument. 3. At the first administration, scored si gnificantly riskier (F^.05) special classes than regular classes on the e xperimental instrument. ^. No significant differences were classes at the found b e tween first a d mi n is t ra t io n on the Kogan and Wa l la c h instrument. 5. At the first a dm i nistration there is more of a differe nce (P^.05) in scores b e tw e en classes with the experi mental instrument than the Kogan and W a ll a ch Instrument. 6. No significant differences were found b e tw e en gain scores from the first admin i st r at i on to the second admin istra tlon in the special classes when the Kogan and Wa l l a c h and the experimental instruments were compared. 7. Special classes score riskier than regular classes C P < .03). 8. Males score ri skier than females 9. Males score riskier than females on the e x pe r i­ mental instrument 10. (P^.01). C P ^.05). No differences exist be tween males and females on the Kogan and W a llach instrument (B-.035, with a n o n ­ centrality p a ra m et e r of 1.0). 11. No significant diffe rences were found be tween the difference scores of males and females wh en bo th instruments we re c omp are d . 73 Imp li c at i on s It seems ap p ar e nt that the I n s t r u m e n t s b e h a v e d d i f f e r ­ ently In the study the o r e t i c a l cational (PP^.0001). This f r a m e w o r k of the study. s it u at i on s decisions. Is consistent w i t h the Risk d ec i si o ns in e d u ­ are d i f f e r e n t th a n the ge n eral ri sk It w o u l d be I n t e r e s t i n g to e xp l o r e dif f er e nc e b e t w e e n the Instruments. f ur t he r this Fu r t h e r r e s e a r c h in this area sh o ul d certainly e s t a b l i s h the c o r r e l a t i o n o f bo th instruments on the same subjects. cised in i n t e r p r e t i n g that w hich seems d ou b tf u l But c a u t i o n must be e x e r ­ correlation. If It is very high, from the results of this study, then perhaps the in s tr u me n ts are t a p p i n g the sam e propensity. that case, ment. low, there w o u l d be no n ee d for the e x p e r i m e n t a l If the c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n the i n s t r u me n ts it w o u l d leave doubts about In Instru­ is very Its v a l i d i t y as a me a s u r e of risk taking. Ana l ys i s o f the d i s t r i b u t i o n s ments is r e ve a li n g, Both d i s t r i b u t i o n s and ku rtosis in that they are r e m a r k a b l y similar. are almost p e r f e c t l y normal. figures are a v a i l a b l e that b ot h i n s t r um e nt s e xp erimental in Ta b le s pread sco res In s t r u m e n t ' s instrument o f this type tinued use of scores on bo th i n s t r u ­ Skewness 3*7. It appears in the same manner. r e l a t i v e l y hig h r e l i a b i l i t y (rt t ».77) lends in e x p l o r i n g the d i f f er e nc e s The for an credence to its c o n­ In general and e d u ­ cationally s p ecific risk taking. The d at a I nd i ca t e a lack of si g ni f ic a nt differences b et w ee n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s on e i t h e r in strument. O f course, mere failure to reject a null h y p o t h e s i s is not the same as 74 accepting it. But it raises some doubt about the ef f ec t iv e ­ ness of the Educa ti o n 200 developmental period on risk taking. Both instruments measu r ed a change toward greater risk t aking (.026, .086), but that change was not significant. Perhaps, further research with a control group will help to clarify the effect of a specif ic treatment on risk taking, both in general and in educational decisions. The difference b e t w e e n special and reg ular classes at the first a d m i n is t ra t io n was an unexpected result of this study. It was assumed that the decision concerning who would go Into special and regular classes o f E du c ation 200 would not cause any significant differences In risk taking between the classes. It now seems plausible that demand characteristics have entered the study. It Is possible that subjects, because they were picked for special classes, thought they should respond In a "special" m an n er on the Instruments. This seems even more likely In light of the finding that signifi­ cant differences be t we e n special and r egular classes ex isted at the first a dm i n i s t r a t i o n on the ex perimental instrument but not the Kogan and Wa l la ch Instrument. It seems r e a s o n ­ able to assume that the instrument more direct ly related to the te a ching situations would elicit demand characteristics in a classroom of prospective teachers. Future researchers might do well to guard against demand characteristics In their studies. The whole q ue s ti o n of demand characteristics and the finding of significant diffe rence at the first administration 75 b e t w e e n r e g u l a r an d s pe c i a l c lasses m ak e s su spect b o t h the f inding o f a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n s pecial ular c l asses gain sc o re s (P^.03) and r e g ­ and the f i n d i n g of no d i f f e r e n c e in in the sp e c i a l c lasses w h e n the two i n s t r u m e n t s are compared. A n o t h e r issue c o n f o u n d i n g this i n t e r p r e t a t i o n is the fact that b e t w e e n a d m i n i s t r a t i o n s of the i n s t r u m e n t s dent s tr i ke was called. So me s t u d e n t s for the rest of the term. a stu­ s t a y e d out of cl asses It is d i f f i c u l t e ffect this s t r i k e h a d on the s ub j ec t s, that a s e l e c t i o n p r o c e s s w as operant. to m e a s u r e wh a t but it seems p l a u s i b l e It is r e a s o n a b l e to a ssume that mo r e h i g h risk s t u d e n t s w o u l d not be p re s e n t for the s e c o n d a d m i n i s t r a t i o n o f the i n s t r u m e n t s than low r i sk takers. S t ud e n t s who s ta y ed away from c lasses strike to ok the r is k o f l o s i n g credit However, d u r i n g the for t h e i r courses. a na l y s i s o f the n u m b e r of s ub j e c t s absent at the s ec o nd a d m i n i s t r a t i o n b e c a u s e o f the s t r i k e in d ic a t e s a small minority. Males score r i s k i e r t h a n Although males Wallach These sex; in the s t ud y the d i f f e r e n c e was not r i s k i e r than females cle arly, the e x p e r i m e n t a l significant i n s t r u m e n t mal es w er e (P^.05). f i nd i ng s are p e r h a p s the mos t C le arly, i n t e r e s t i n g o f the instrument differentiates the K o g a n an d W a l l a c h i n s t r u m e n t has o f t e n b e e n said that s c h o o l s w hi c h r e quire b e h a v i o r w h i c h (P^.01). females o n the K o g a n and Ho w e v e r , on the e x p e r i m e n t a l significantly study. sc ore r i s k i e r t h a n in s t r u m e n t , (B».035)* females are f e minine does not. It institutions is mo r e c o n g ru e nt w i t h " f e m a l e ” 76 b e h a v i o r th a n "male." It has also b e e n s ai d that school pe rsonnel are not p r o n e to take risks. Perhaps, this study will be a b e g i n n i n g in the e x p l o r a t i o n of the r e l a t i o n s h i p of these two ideas. The t heory of riBk t a k i n g indicates sions are often value decisions. sions are c o n s t e l l a t i o n s of valu es that risk d e c i ­ Alternatives in ri sk d e c i ­ v y i n g for promine n ce . The e x p e r i m e n t a l i n s t r u m e n t may s e pa r at e male from female on the ba sis of va lue c o n s t e l l a t i o n s w h i c h are m or e or less appropriate. The K o g a n and W a l l a c h in s tr u me n t does not mu nicate s e x - a p p r o p r i a t e value dilemmas. The find ings sex com­ in this st udy are c o n s i s t e n t w i t h K o g a n and W a l l a c h ’s o w n st udies in this regard. The e x p e r i m e n t a l i n st r um e nt may be m e a s u r i n g some o f the value c o n s t e l l a t i o n s w h i c h are r e s p o n s i b l e both lack of risk and a " f e m i n i z e d ” e n v i r o n m e n t If future r e s e a r ch e rs risk taking, investigate for in the school. f u rt h er into e du c a t i o n a l they might d e s i g n th e ir studies to c or r elate risk p r o p e n s i t y and s e x - a p p r o p r i a t e values. It s ho u ld be ob v io u s to the r e a d e r that this study only barely scrapes the su r fa c e of the i n v e s t i g a t i o n of risk t a k i n g In the e d u c a t i o n a l sphere. M u c h yet needs to be k n o w n about the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f such c o nc e pt s as general specific risk taking, risk. and e d u c a t i o n a l - sex and risk, p e r s o n a l i t y and e d u c a t i o n a l The e x p e r i m e n t a l instrument can be of use to future researchers but more about what e x ac t ly It is m e a s u r i n g needs to be known. Instrument to kno wn The a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the high and low e d u c a t i o n a l risk takers of b ot h sexes is per haps the next step. 77 Questions 1. W h a t w o u l d be the r es u lt o f a study c o r r e l a t i n g the same s ub j ects* 2. for F u r t h e r S t u d y responses on b o t h I n s t r u m e n t s ? Can o t h e r t r a i n i n g p r o g r a m s for e d u c a t o r s be e v a l u a t e d In terms of r i sk t a k i n g w i t h the use of a c ontrol group? 3. W o u l d the a b s e n c e of a st u d e n t strike and/or d e m a n d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f b e i n g in " sp e c i a l " s e c t i o n s have made a d i f f e r e n c e 4. Wh at environment 5. in the r e s u l t s ? is the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f a f e m i n i z e d school and low r i s k in the s ch o o l s ? What is the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f s e x - a p p r o p r i a t e ues to r i s k d e c i s i o n s 6. and females? W o u l d the e n c o u r a g e m e n t o f m o r e m a s c u l i n e a d m i n ­ istrative techniques educational 7. in m a l e s val­ cause c h a n g e s in the r i s k t a k i n g of administrators? Do m a l e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s take m o r e risks t h a n female administrators? 8. Would practitioners t r ai n e e s o n the e x p e r i m e n t a l 9* What secondary 11. instrument? v al u e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s w o u l d s er v e to pr o m o t e risk t a k i n g in t ea c h e r s 10. s c or e d i f f e r e n t l y t h a n t e a c h e r and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s ? Would elementary teachers s co re r i s k i e r than t ea c he r s? Would a longitudinal study of the t e a c h e r t r ai n ee s of this stu dy s ho w t h e m to be h i g h e r o r l ow e r risk takers w h e n they b e c o m e p r a c t i t i o n e r s ? 78 12. Do c e r t a i n p e r s o n a l i t y types score d i f f e r e n t l y o n the e x p e r i m e n t a l 13. instrument? What w o u l d the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of the e x p e r i m e n t a l i n s t r u m e n t to k n o w n h ig h and low e d u c a t i o n a l r i sk takers re veal? 14. What e d u c a t i o n a l va l u e s do hi g h and low r i s k takers of b o t h sexes have 15. in common? Did the h i g h ri s k t a k e r s the s tudent 16. tend to p a r t i c i p a t e in s t r i k e more o f t e n t h a n low ri s k takers? Does age m a ke a d i f f e r e n c e in risk t a k i n g in educational situations? Reflections T he c o n t i n u e d study of r i s k t a k i n g in the e d u c a t i o n a l field s h o u l d be u n d e r ta k en . cern ed w i t h the tinue to be very w e l l a pp r oa c he s T h e a u t h o r is very m u c h c o n ­ cu rrent s ta t e of education. c h iefly c o n c e r n e d w i t h s af et y face the p r o s p e c t to educat i on . d e m o n s t r a t e d that first, co n­ th ey may o f b e i n g s u p e r c e d e d by o t h e r Many private firms have already they can do a b e t t e r Job t h an p u b l i c Unless p u b l i c e d u c a t i o n f o s t e r s nel, If s c h o o l s innovative, schools. h i gh ri s k p e r s o n ­ it is likely to b e c o m e obsolete. It Is, t h e r ef o re , the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y risk S tu d en t s , to accept I n v e s t i g a t i o n of what e x p e r i e n c e s in e d u c a t o r s pa r ents, and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s upon universities for t r a i n i n g t e ac h er s and a d m i n i s t r a t o r s t ow a rd t a k i n g risks. encourage incumbent is al so of p a r a m o u n t teachers, all must be could concern. s chool bo a rd s , freed to try br a ve , l e g i s l a to r s new 79 a pproaches. available Time, m o n e y and o p p o r t u n i t i e s must be ma de for e x p e r i m e n t a l programs. be t o l e ra t ed , but long, mores. M i s t a k e s must not only those w h o dare m us t be appreci a te d . Too the s chools have p l a y e d the role o f the c o n s e r v a t o r of Now, the role o f the s chool as a change agent ne eds to be emphasized. It is not the critic w ho counts, not the m an who p o i n t s out ho w the s t r o n g m a n s t um b le d , o r w h e r e the d o e r o f deeds could ha ve do ne t h em better. The credit b e l o n g s to the m a n wh o is ac t u a l l y in the arena; w h o s e face is m a r r e d by dust and sweat and blood; w h o strives v al i an t l y ; w ho errs and comes short a g a i n and again; w h o knows the great e n t h u s ­ iasms, the gr eat d e v o t i o n s , and spends h i m s e l f in a w o r t h y cause; w h o at the best knows in the end the t r i u m p h of h i g h ac h i e v e m e n t ; and w h o at the wo r st , if he fails, at least falls w h i l e d a r i n g greatly; so that his p l ac e shall n e v e r be w i t h those cold and timid souls wh o k no w n e i t h e r v i ctory nor defeat. — Theodore Roosevelt B IBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Allport, P. H. 1924. Social Psychology. Boston: Ho u gh t o n Mifflin, Allport, G. W., and Allport, F. H. A-S R ea c t i o n S t u d y . 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"D e ci s io n-Making: The I nf l u e n c e of P r o b ­ a bi l i t y P r e f e r e n c e , V a r i a n c e P r e f e r e n c e , and E x p e c t e d V alue on S t r a t e g y in Ga m bl i n g . " A c ta P s y c h o l o g i c a , 21 (1963), 231-259. Vidmar, N. "Group C o m p o s i t i o n and the R i s k y - S h i f t ." P ap e r p r e s e n t e d at the E a s t e r n P s y c h o l o g i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n Convention, 1 9 6 9 • Wallach, M. A. "The I n f l u e n c e of C l a s s i f i c a t i o n R e q u i r e m e n t s on G r a d i e n t s of R e s p o n s e . " P s y c h o l o g i c a l M o n o g r a p h , 73 (1959). _________ , and Kogan, N. "Aspects of J u d g m e n t and D e c i s i o n Making: I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s and C ha nges W i t h Age." B e h a v i o r a l S c i e n c e , 6 (1961), 23-36. _________ . "The Roles of I n f o r m a t i o n , D i s c u s s i o n , and C o n ­ sensus in Group Risk T a k i n g . " Joftrnal of E x p e r i m e n t a l S ocial P s y c h o l o g y , 1 (1965), 1-19. _ . "Sex D i f f e r e n c e s and J u d g m e n t Processes. of P e r s o n a l i t y , 27 (1959), 555-564. Jo u r n a l _________ , and Bern, D. J. " D i f f u s i o n o f R e s p o n s i b i l i t y and Level of Risk T a k i n g in G r ou p s. " J o u r n a l o f A b no r m a l and So c ia l P s y c h o l o g y . 68 (1964), 263-27^• _______ . "Group I nf l ue n ce on In d iv i d u a l Ri s k T a k i n g . " J o u r n a l of A b no r ma l and S oc i al P s y c h o l o g y , 65 (1962), 75-H6. Wallach, M. A.; Kogan, N. ; and Burt, R. B. "Can Group Members R e c o g n i z e the E f fe c t s of G r o u p D i s c u s s i o n U p o n Ri3k T ak i ng ? " J o u r n a l of E x p e r i m e n t a l S oc i al Ps y ch o lo g y, 1 (1965), 37J=35T.---------------------------- ------- 94 _________ . "Group R i sk T a k i n g and F ie l d D e p e n d e n c e - I n d e p e n d e n c e of G ro u p M e m b e r s . " P a p e r p r e s e n t e d at the an n u a l c o n ­ v e n t i o n of the A m e r i c a n P s y c h o l o g i c a l A ss o ci a ti o n. New Y o r k City; S e p t e m b e r , 1966. Weir, M. W. gie s ." "Developmental Psychological Wels h, G. S. " F a c t o r D i m e n s i o n s A and R." B as i c R e a d i n g s on the MMPI In P s y c h o l o g y and M e d i c i n e . E d i t e d ~ b y "G. Si W e l s h and W. G. D ah l st r om . M i n n e a p o l i s : U n i v e r s i t y of M i n n e s o t a P re s s, 1956. W e r t h e i m e r , M. Productive Row, 1959. White, C h a n g e s In P r o b l e m - S o l v i n g S t r a t e ­ R e v i e w , 71 (1964), 473-490. T hi n ki n g. N e w York; Harper & S. H. "Learning." C h i l d P s y c h o l o g y : Th e S i x t y S e c o n d Y e a r b o o k o f the N a t i o n a l S o c i e t y for the Study o f E d u c a t i o n , Part I~ E d i t e d by H. W. St e ve n so n . C h i c a g o : U n i v e r s i t y o f C h i c a g o Press, 1963. Whyt e, W. H . , Jr. Th e O r g a n i z a t i o n M a n . and S c h u s t e r , X956. N e w York: Simon W i l l i a m s , L. D. "The M e a s u r e m e n t o f R i s k - T a k i n g P r o p e n s i t y in an I n d u s t r i a l S e t t i n g . " Unpublished Doctoral dis­ s e r t a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f M i c h i g a n , I960. Wit k in , H. A.; Dyk, R. B . ; F a t e r s o n , and Karp, S. A. Psychological York: W i l e y , 1962. H. F . ; G o o d e n o u g h , D. R . ; D i f f e r e n t i a t i o n . New W itkin, H. A.; Le w is , H. B.; H e r t z m a n , M . ; M a c h o v e r , K.; M e i s s n e r , P. B.; and W a p n e r , S. Personality Through P e r c e p t i o n . N e w York: H a r p e r & R o w , 1954. Yost, P. A.; S ie g e l , A. E.; a nd A n d r e w s , J. M. P r o b a b i l i t y J u d g m e n t s by Y o u n g C h i l d r e n . " ment, 33 (1962), 769-780. " N o n ve r ba l Ch i ld D e v e l o p ­ Zajonc, R. B . ; W o l o s i n , R. J.; W o l o s i n , M. A.; and Sh e rm a n, S. J. " Gr o u p R i s k T a k i n g in a T w o - C h o i c e S i tu a ti o n: R e p l i c a t i o n , E x t e n s i o n , and a M o d e l . " J o u r n a l of E x p e r i m e n t a l S o c i a l P s y c h o l o g y , 5 (1969)* 127-140. Zaleska, M . , and K ogan, N. "Level o f Risk S e l e c t e d by In d i­ v id u a l s a nd G r ou p s W h e n D e c i d i n g for S e l f and O t he r s . " P a p e r p r e s e n t e d at A. P. A. Co n ve n ti o n. W a s h i n g t o n , D. C.: S e p t e m b e r , 1 9 6 9 . Ziller, R. C. Journal " V o c a t i o n a l Ch o i c e and U t i l i t y for Risk ." of C o u n s e l l i n g P s y c h o l o g y . 4 (1957), 61-64. APPENDICES APPENDIX A KOGAN AND W A L L A C H ' S "DILEMMAS-OF-CHOICE" 97 0£ _ rEKU£ OPINION QUESTIONNAIRE II itnictions: On the following pages, you will find e series of situations thet ere •ly to occur In everyday life. The central person in each situation is faced with a let between two alternative courses of action, which we might call X and Y. A lternate isore desirable and attractive than alternative Y, but the probability of attaining achieving X Is less than that of attaining or achieving Y. For each situation on the following pages, you will be asked to indicate the minimum iof success you would demand before recommending that the more attractive or lrable alternative, X, be chosen. Read each situation carefully before giving your Judgment. Try to place yourself the position of the central person In each of the situations. There are twelve ftuations In all. Please do not omit any of them. Hr. A, an electrical engineer, who Is married and has one child, has been working for a large electronics corporation since graduating from college five years ago. He Is assured of a lifetime Job with a modest, though adequate, salary, and liberal pension benefits upon retirement. On the other hand, It Is very unlikely that his ulary will Increase much before he retires. While attending a convention, Mr. A is offered a Job with a small, newly founded company which has a highly uncertain future. The new Job would pay more to start and would offer the possibility of a ihtre in the ownership If the company survived the competition of the larger firms. Iasgine you are advising Mr. A. Listed below are several probabilities or odds of the new company's proving financially sound. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make It worthwhile for Mr. A to take the new job. The chances are 1 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound. The chances are 3 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound. The chances are 5 in 10 that the company will prove financially sound. The chances are 7 In 10 that the company will prove financially sound . The chances are 9 In 10 that the company will prove financially sound, Place a check here If you think Mr. A should not take the new job no matter what the probabilities. Hr. B, a 45-year-old accountant, has recently been Informed by hla physician that he has developed a severe heart ailment. The disease would be sufficiently serious to force Mr. B to change many of his strongest life habits - reducing his work load, drastically changing his diet, giving up favorite lelsure-tlme pursuits. The physician suggests that a delicate medical operation could be attempted which, If successful, would completely relieve the heart condition. But Its success could not he sssured, and In fact, the operation might prove fatal. •osgine that you are advising Mr. B. Listed below are several probabilities or odds that the operation will prove successful. ?lease check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for the operatl to be performed. — Place a check her If you think Mr. B should what the probabilities. The chances sre 9 In 10 that the operation — ___ The chances are 7 in 10 that the operation — The chances are 5 In 10 that the operation — The chances are 3 In 10 that the operation not have the operation no matter will will will will be be be be a a a a success. success. success. success. 98 it, C, « married man with two children, has a steady job that pays him about $6000 per year. He can easily afford the necessities of life, but few of the luxuries. Hr, C's father, who died recently, carried a $4000 life insurance policy. Mr. C Kwld like to Invest this money in stocks. He is well aware of the secure "blue-chip" itocks and bonds that would pay approximately 67. on his Investment. On the other iitsd, Mr, C has heard that the stocks of a relatively unknown Company X might double their present value if a new product currently in production is faborably received by the buying public. However, If the product is unfavorably received, the stocks Muld decline in value. laaglne that that Company Please check to invest In you are advising Mr. C. Listed below are several probabilities or odds X stocks will double their value. the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. C Company X stocks. The chances are 1 in 10 that thestockswill double theirvalue. The chances are 3 in 10 that the stocks will double their value. The chances are 5 in 10 that the stocks will double their value. The chances are 7 in 10 that the stocks will double their value. The chances are 9 in 10 that the stocks will double their value. Place a check here if you think Mr. C should not Invest in Company X stocks, no matter what the probabilities. Kr. D is the captain of College X's football team. College X is playing its tradi­ tional rival, College Y, in the final game of the season. The game is in its final itconds, and Mr. D's team, College X, Is behind the score. College X has time to ran one more play. Mr. D, the captain, must decide whether it would be best to ictcle for a tie score with a play which would be almost certain to work or, on the ocher hand, should he try a more complicated and risky play which could bring rlctory if it succeeded, but defeat if not. [sagine that you are advising Mr. D. Listed below are several probabilities or odda Chat the risky play will work. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for the risky pUy to be attempted. - Place a check here if you think Mr. D should not matter what the probabilities. The chances are 9 In 10 that the risky play will The chances are 7 in 10 that the risky play will The chances are S in 10 that the risky play will The chances are 3 in 10 that the risky play will The chances are 1 in 10 that the risky play will attempt the risky play no work. work. work. work. work. E is president of a light metals corporation in the United States. The corporation i* quite prosperous, and has strongly considered the possibilities of business exwniion by building an additional plant in a new location. The choice is between Gliding another plant in the U.S., where there would be a moderate return on the Initial investment, or building a plant in a foreign country. Lower labor costs and **y access to raw materials in that country would mean a much higher return on the initial Investment. On the other hand, there is a history of political instability **1 revolution in the foreign country under consideration. In fact, the leader of '•sail minority party is committed to nationalising, that is, taking over, all ‘°Mign Investments. 99 Imagine that you are advising Mr. E. Listed below are several probabilities or odds of continued political stability in the foreign country under consideration. Plctse check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. E's corporation to build a plant in that country. ~ The chances are 1 in10 that theforeign country will remain politically stable. The chances are 3 in10 that theforeign country will remain politically stable. ~ The chances are 5 in 10 that the foreign country will remain politically stable. The chances are 7 in10 that theforeign country will remain politically stable. The chances are 9 in10 that theforeign country will remain politically stable. 1 Place a check here if you think Mr. E's corporation should not build a plant in the foreign country, no matter what the probabilities. Hr. F is currently a college senior who is very eager to pursue graduate study in chemistry leading to the Doctor of Philosophy degree. He has been accepted by both University X and University Y. University X has a world-wide reputation for excellence in Chemistry. While a degree from University X would signify outstanding training in this field, the standards are so very rigorous that only a fraction of the degree candidates actually receive the degree. University Y, on the other hand, has much lesa of a reputation in chemistry, but almost everyone admitted is awarded the Doctor of Philosophy degree, though the degree has much less prestige than the corresponding degree from University X. Imagine that you are advising Mr. F. Listed below are several probabilities or odds that Mr. F would be awarded a degree at University X, the one with the greater prestige Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr, F to enroll in University X rather than University Y. The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. F would receive The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. F would receive ____ The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. F would receive The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr..F would receive ____ The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. F would receive _____ Place a check here if you think Mr. F should not matter what the probabilities. a degree a degree a degree a degree a degree enroll in from University X. from University X. from University X. from University X. from University X. University X, no Mr. G, a competent chess player, is participating in a national chess tournament. In sn early match he draws the top-favored player in the tournament as his opponent. Mr. G has been given a relatively low ranking in view of his performance in previous tournaments. During the course of his play with the top-favored man, Mr. G notes the possibility of a deceptive though riaky maneuver which might bring him a quick victory. At the same time, if the attempted maneuver should fall, Mr. G would be left In an exposed position and defeat would almost certainly follow. Isagine that you are advising Mr. G. Listed that Mr. G's deceptive play would succeed. Please check the lowest probability that you play in question to be attempted. - The chances are 1 in 10 that the play The chances are 3 in 10 that the play The chances are 5 in 10 that the play The chances are 7 in 10 that the play The chances are 9 in 10 that the play Place a check here if you think Mr. G what the probabilities. below are several probabilities or would odds consider acceptable fortherisky would succeed. would succeed. would succeed. would succeed. would succeed. should not attempt the risky play, no matte 100 Hr. H, a college senior, has studied the piano since childhood. He has won amateur prizes and given small recitals, suggesting that Mr. H has considerable musical talent. As graduation approaches, Mr. H has the choice of going to medical school to become t physician, a profession which would bring certain prestige and financial rewards; or entering a conservatory of music for advanced training with a well-known pianist. Mr. H realises that even upon completion of his piano studies, which would take many sore years and a lot of money, success as a concert pianist would not be assured. Iasgine that you are advising Mr. H. Listed below are several probabilities or odds chat Mr. H would succeed as a concert pianist. Plesse check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. H to continue with his musical training. ______ Place a check here if you think Mr. H should not no matter what the probabilities. ______ The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed The chances are 5 In 10 that Mr. H would succeed The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr, H would succeed The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. H would succeed pursue his musical training, as as as as as a a a a a concert concert concert concert concert pianist. pianist. pianist. pianist. pianist. Mr. J is an American captured by the enemy in World War II and placed in a prisonerof-war camp. Conditions in the camp are quite bad, with long hours of hard physical labor and a barely sufficient diet. After spending several sionths in this camp, Mr. J notes the possibility of escape by concealing himself in a supply truck that ihuttles In and out of the camp. Of course, there is no guarantee that the escape would prove successful. Recapture by the enemy could well mean execution. Isagine that you are advising Mr. J. Listed below are several probabilities or odds of a successful escape from the prisoner-of-war camp. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for an escape to be attempted. The chances are 1 in 10 that the escape would succeed. The chances are 3 in 10 that the escape would succeed. . The chances are 3 in 10 that the escape would succeed. __ The chances are 7 in 10 that the escape would succeed. _ _ _ The chances are 9 in 10 that the eacape would succeed. _____ Place a check here if you think Mr. J should not try to escape no matter what the probabilities. Mr. K is a successful businessman who has participated in a number of civic activities of considerable value to the comaamlty. Mr. K has been approached by the leaders of h political party as a possible congressional condldate in the next election. Mr. K's party is a minority party in the district, though the party has won occasional electlo In the past. Mr. K would like to hold political office, but to do so would Involve • serious financial sacrifice, since the party has insufficient campaign funds. He would also have to endure the attacks of his political opponent's in a hot campaign. Isagine that you are advising Mr. K. Listed below are several probabilities or odds of Mr. K's winning the election in his district. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. K to run for political office. — Place a check here if you think Mr. K should matter what the probabilities. not run for political office no 101 The The The The The chances chances chances chances chances are are are are are 9 7 5 3 1 In In In in In 10 10 10 10 10 that that that that that Mr. Mr. Mr. Mr. Mr. K K K K K would would would would would win win win win win the the the the the election. election. election. election. election. Mr. L, a married 30-year-old research phyBlclst, has been given a five-year appointment by a major university laboratory. As he contemplates the next five years, he realizes that he might work on a difficult, long-term problem which, If a solution could be found, would resolve the basic scientific Issues In the field and bring high scientific honors. If no solution were found, however, Mr. L would have little to show for his five years in the laboratory, and this would make It hard for him to get a good job afterwards. On the other hand, he could, as most of his professional associates are doing, work on a series of short-term problems where aolutions would be easier to find, but where the problems are of lesser scientific laportance. Iaagine that you are advising Mr. L. Listed below are several probabilities or odds that a solution would be found to the difficult, long-term problem that Mr. L has In sind. Plaase check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it worthwhile for Mr. L to work on the more difficult long-term problem. The chances are 1 In 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-term problem. _ _ The chances are 3 In 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-term problem. ____ The chances are 5 In 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-term problem. The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-term problem. ____ The chances are 9 In 10 that Mr. L would solve the long-term problem. _ _ _ Place a check here if you think Mr. L should not choose the long-term, difficult problem, no matter what the probabilities. Mr. M is contemplating marriage to Miss T, a girl whom he has known for a little more thsn a year. Recently, however, a number of arguments have occurred between them, •uggesting some sharp differences of opinion In the way each views certain matters. Indeed, they decide to seek professional advice from a marriage counselor as to vhather it would be wise for them to marry. On the basis of these meetings with a aarrlage counselor, they realize that a happy marriage, while possible, would not be uaured. Isagine that you are advising Mr. M and Miss T. Listed below are several probabllltiei or odds that their marriage would prove to be ahappy and successful one. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable for Mr. M and Miss T to get married. — — — Place a check here if you think Mr. M and Miss T should not marry, no matter what the probabilities. The chances are 9 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful. The chances are 7 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful. The chances are 5 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful. The chances are 3 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful. The chances are 1 in 10 that the marriage would be happy and successful. APPENDIX B MATERIALS PR OM SP E CI A L CLASSES E DUCATION 200 103 THE P E R S O N A L DE MANDS O P T E A C H I N G OBJECTIVES I. II. The s tudent will compl ete an ac t io n p r oject I n d i c a t i n g his I n di v id u al growth In p e rs o na l f r e e d o m an d /o r a c c e p t ­ ance of o t h e r s ’ freedoms. His p ro j ec t wi ll focus on "active In v ol v em e nt " In one of the value areas se l ec t ed by the student. The project wi ll inc lude a d e s c r i p t i o n o r e x p l a n a t i o n of the growth he feels the p ro j e c t r epresents and will be due Mo nd ay, August 17, 1970. F o l l o w i n g the r e a d i n g of Student as N i g g e r by Farber, the student wi ll w r it e a p a p e r on any theme that is of r el e va n ce to the student. He w i l l then indicate, wi t ho u t direct r e f e r e n c e s , why and In wh at ways he agrees or d is a gr e es w i t h Farber. The p a p e r will be due Monday, Aug ust 10, 1970. The m a i n require m en t for this p a p e r is e vi d e n c e of crit ical thought on y o u r part. We are i n te r e s t e d in y o u r views c o n c e r n i n g those concepts a n d/ o r values y ou select. We do not want a b o o k report; therefore, any p ap e r w h ic h is largely a m a t t e r of p a r a p h r a s i n g of Farber wi ll not be ac ceptable. BOOKS: REQUIRED: S M A L L GROUP Student As N i g g e r . F a r b e r 36 C h i l d r e n . Kohl Po litics of P r o t e s t , S k ol n i c k A u t o b i o g r a p h y of M a l c o l m X or M an c h l l d In the P ro m i s e d Land W o r k b o o k by H e n d e r s o n 3 of y o ur choice from the r e c o m m e nd e d r e ad i n g list. C ARRELS P r e p a r i n g I n st r uc t io n al O b j e c t iv e s, Mager D e v e l o p i n g Attitudes T o w a r d Learning, M a ge r 104 V A L U E I N V E N T O R Y Here is « llet of values. The list Is In alphabetical ordar. Change the ranking to match your own ranking by placing the letter of each value In the right hand column. The top space ahould have the letter of the value which Is most Important to you. Put only one letter in a space - no ties. Peel free to erase or to rearrange your list. You will not be graded on how you rank the values. This is simply an opportunity for you to look at the valuee which you hold most important for your life. OK? A - AESTHETICS (appreciation of the arts, nature, one's own appearance, beauty) B - EQUALITY (the treatment of others as equally important human beings) C - FREEDOM (independence, self respect, freedom from overwhelming anxieties) D - HEALTH (physical and emotional health, inner harmony, absence of pain) E - HONESTY & JUSTICE (personal integrity and falrneas) F - MATERIAL WEALTH/POWER G - MATURE LOVE H - PEACE 1 * SAFETY (sexual and spiritual intimacy) (harmony among nations & groups) (freedom from violent harm at work, on the streets or in the home) J - SOCIAL RECOGNITION K - TRUE FRIENDSHIP L - WISDOM (freedom from want, affluence, security & comfort) (sense of social worth, attractlveneaa to opposite sex, popularity) (close companionship, loyal friends, camaraderie) (mature underatandlng acquisition of knowledge, skills & "common sense") (After filling this out, remove page by tearing along perforations.) RANK ORDER June 29, 1970, begin carrel work. Complete unit I - July 16, unit II - July 31, unit III - August 21. I. II. 11. A. Introduction to teaching 1. Handout will be made available 2. Assigned readings a. Differentiating between the personal demands and task demands of teaching (pg. 114-115) b. The model of teaching (pg. 116-117) c. Definition of teaching (pg. 116) d. Differentiate between instructional design and instruction 1. Teaching vs. learning (pg. 118 & 123) e. Behavioral vs. nonbehavloral (fact vs. opinion) 1. Refer to exercises in manual (pg. 119-122) f. Assessing and describing status conditions 1. Objectives for unit II (pg.129-132) 2. Assessment used In 36 Children (pg. 124-128) B. Assessment (three tapes plus handbook readings) 1. Assigned readlngs--to be read prior to first tape on intel­ lectual assessment a. Objectives (pg. 129) b. Chart - Intellectual Behavior, (pg. 133-135) c. Nature of Intelligence, (pg. 141-149) d. Distribution of Intelligence, (pg. 150) (pgs. 151-171 will be covered in tape) e. Piaget - (pg, 172-178) - Claririo f. Piaget - Handout - Prawat 2. Bring handbook to carrel to use during assessment tapes. 3. Intellectual Assessment (one tape plus handbook, (approximate time In carrel - 45 minutes) 4. Assigned readlngs--Soclal-emotlonal assessment a. Social-emotional - Constructs, (read pgs. 179-182) b. Child as a Moral Philosopher, (pgs. 187-194) c. Exercises on Moral Development, (pgs. 195-202) d. Handout on Parent-Child Interaction e. Environment, (pgs. 203-2<>5), Look at Office of Ed. Survey, (pg. 205-213) 5. In-basket assessment (approximately one hour each). Assess two students and attend at least one session to discuss hypotheses arrived at. Sessions have been scheduled for all day July 8 and 9 to provide Interaction and feedback on the assesssmnt unit. 6. Exam - exam may be taken when unit is completed but must be completed no later than July 16. (taken In carrel room) Objectives Unit (five tapes and two handouts) A. Overview (approximately 20-30 minutes) B. Relevance - What Is it? (approximately 40 minutes) C. Making Relevance Operational (approximately 20-30 minutes) D. Preparing Behavioral Objectives ( approximately 45-60 minutes) probably a handout on different types of behavioral objectives. E. Mental Operations - handout and game. Read Mager If necessary-trlal writing of objectives. F. Take Home Exam - Must be completed no later than July 31, 1970 Strategies! Unsure of what form these will be in yet. May be handOperent L outs plus meetings In Klve for films or lectures If Respondentr tapes aren't ready. These will be provided and scheduled Modeling | during the early part of August, and unit Is scheduled to be completed by August 21, 1970. APPEN DI X C MATERIALS F RO M R EG U LA R CLASSES EDU CA T IO N 200 EAGHING la manipulating (means) the variables of inatruction (givens) to produce intended changea In learner behavior (enda) 107 A framework for the organisation and systematic application of behavioral aclence to lnatructlonal design and Instruction -TEACHING- Is manipulating (means) the variables of instruction (givens) to produce intended changes In learner behavior (ends) Nk Instructional Design (pre/post class) Instruction (ln-class) INSTRUCTIONAL VARIABLES Classroom A. B. C. Humans 1. Individual Students 2. Groups 3. Teachers Environments 1. Sensory Conditions 2. Supplies & Equipment 3. Space A Arrangement 4. Time i ! ! ! j i t • j j i ! • Curricula j 1. Basic Abilities,Concepts J Principles i 2. SubjectNatter Materials j 3. Required Teacherand Student* Activities ! School Home ■ ! ! ! ! i i i i i * ■ i t ! I j j j • • S * • • • • ■ i ! ! ! i t • i • s i i i i i i i I Consunlty • i I i i i S i ! ! I TEACHING It manipulating (means) the variables of Instruction (givens) to produce intended changes in learner behavior (ends) V INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN TASKS (pre/post class) N/ INSTRUCTION TASKS (in-class) I. Assessing and Describing Status Conditions, (givens) A. B. C. I. Human Components (others-self) Environmental Conditions. Curricular Structure. Assessing status conditions; determining appropriateness of Instructional design and revising if necessary, (givens) A. C. 11. Specifying Intended Changes, B. C. III. Selecting the beyond-school and in-class analogue behaviors. Formulating the behavioral objectives. Analyzing the terminal and prerequisite behaviors. Selecting and Preparing Strategies for Producing Intended Changes, (means) A. B. C. Operant strategies. Respondent strategies. Modeling strategies. Curriculum (ends) II. A. Humans B . Environment Implementing strategies for producing intended changes, (means) A. B. C. III. Operant strategies. Respondent strategies. Modeling strategies. Evaluating type, extent and potential cause of changes, (ends) A. B. C. In regard In regard In regard to givens. to objectives. to strategies. 110 INSTRUCTIONAL DESIGN Accessing and Describing Status Conditions, (givens) A. Human Dimension (Individual students, groups, teachers) 1. physical behaviors 2 . social-emotional behaviors 3 . intellectual behaviors B. Environmental Dimension 1. sensory conditions 2 . supplies and equipment 3. space and arrangement 4. time C. Curricular Dimension 1. basic abilities, concepts, and principles 2 . subject matter materials 3 . required teacher and/or student activities Specifying Intended Changes. (ends) A. Selecting the beyond school and ln-class analogue behaviors 1. physical 2. social-emotional 3 . intellectual B. Formulating the Objectives 1. terminal behaviors 2. conditions 3 . criteria C. Analyzing the Terminal and Prerequisite Behaviors 1. information types 2 . mental operations 3 . complexity levels Selecting and Preparing Strategies for Producing Intended Changes. A. Operant Strategies 1. creating a response 2. maintaining a response 3. extinguishing a response B. Respondent Strategies 1. creating a response 2. extinguishing a response C. Modeling Strategies 1. creating a response 2. maintaining a response 3 . extinguishing a response (means) Ill Ed. 200 Office: Phone: Course Coordinator 236 Erickson Hall 353-8765 Dr. Judith Henderson EDUCATION 200 Gcnersl Description Education 200 Is the first of four courses constituting the core of the professional training program In education. These courses share the coosson abjective of helping each and every one of you to become competent and dedicated teachers, Education 200 has the unique responsibility of serving both as an edvance organizer" for what will follow, that is, as an Introduction to the process of education known as "teaching," and as a format for the presentation of certain concepts and principles known to the behavioral sciences and relevant to you as prospective teachers. With these purposes In mind, we have organized course material around a conceptual model of what we think teaching is, or should be, all about. This Teaching Model" serves as a framework for organizing most of what will follow in the course (see appendix). In Education 200 we shall deal almost exclusively »tth the "Instructional Design" half of the model, leaving for later the actual ftca to face confrontation with students known as "Instruction." jwtent Education 200 Is arranged into four basic units. itching, Unit I Is An Overview of it Is designed to provide you with a common referent for understanding tasks and the rationale behind the tasks teachers perform. 112 Here the distinction is made between "Instructional Design" and "Instruction"; a concept considered basic to an understanding of the various tasks involved in teaching. "Instructional Design" is best compared to the pre and post game planning undertaken by a football coach, while "Instruction" is comparable to the implementation of that plan during a football game. A teacher goes through certain procedures prior to setting foot in a classroom just as a good coach views game films and devises itrategies before meeting opponents. Like a good coach, a good teacher frequently aust change and amend plans to suit the realities of the situation. let of skills is known as "Instruction". This second The total teacher combines both of these ibliltlea and is an effective Improviser as well as a careful and deliberate planner. As we have indicated, Education 200 is concerned with the "Instructional Design" aspects of teaching. Qealgn". Unit There are three major tasks Involved In "Instructional II is an in depth examination of the first task encountered by teachers, that of Assessing and Describing the Status Conditions. Here, quite tinply, s teacher examines what he has to work with in the way of students, environment, and curriculum. The teacher must consider not only the needs and lialtations of the students, but also the environmental and subject matter "givens". After these factors have been properly assessed, the teacher is ready to consider the goals of his instruction. This takes us to the second major task a teacher faces, that of "Specifying ntended Changes". This is the concern of Unit III. Here the teacher decides 'riiere he is going with his instruction by making explicit the exact changes in student behavior (or learning) which he Intends to bring about. theae Intended changes are known as "objectives". Statements of In formulating objectives, it la Pessary to consider not only where the students are at a given point in time, which l* the function of assessment, but also where the students will be at some distant ?°int in the future. This "beyond school" consideration forces school learning to 113 be relevant, for few teachers would have students memorize dates of battles after lrat considering the out-of-school application of such an intended change. Finally, Unit IV addresses itself to the third task Involved in Instructional tislgn, that of Selecting and Preparing Strategies for Producing Intended Changea. -*re C he teacher must choose from among a number of alternative strategies or esns for achieving the desired end which is the change in behavior described in the objective. Proper selection of strategies depends upon an accurate reading il both the givens and the ends. Thus, strategies are tailored to the human, environmental, and curricular givena, as well as the type of response sought by the teacher. For example, research shows that concrete kinds of rewards, such as »n*y or candy, are more effective than abstract rewards for disadvantaged children, 'hue, a teacher with lower class youngsters might well decide upon a strategy aploylng concrete rewards. Procedures Education 200 meets five times a week, in three large group and two small iroup sessions. The large group sessions are designed to provide content that cannot be obtained in the readings and to clarify concepts that are frequently difficult •o grasp. The small group sessions are designed to provide information and also to tneble you to question and interact with others about course content. You will receive copies of the objectives for each unit prior to the initia­ tion of the unit. These objectives specify the abilities that you should be able to demonstrate at the end of the period of instruction. We highly recooaend that 'ou gear your study to these objectives since they represent the important concepts Resented in the course and the content over which you will be examined. Included in this handout are the objectives for Unit I, the reading aaslgnents for the course and a description of the evaluation procedures. 114 EDUCATION 200 FACULTY AND STAFF irze group Instruction: t, Keith Anderson Dr* Donald Hamachek T. Norman Bell Mr. George Harris r. Done Id Freemen Dr. Judith Henderson t. Robert Green sll aroup Instruction: lilt Madelyn Albrecht Mr. James Parker Iri. Henrietta Barns Mrs. Vivian Riddle r. Clyde Claycomb Sr. Dolore Rockers r. Frederick Ebbeck Mr. Kenneth Rode i. Albert Gary Mr. Gerald Stone n. Katherine Gordon Mr. Terrill Taylor r. Matthew Klein Mr. Kenneth Washington r. Joseph Koch Mrs. Phyllis Welsch r. Steven Levenkron Mr. Michael Wroblewskl lit Mercy Nabrezny Mrs. Shirley Willard lit Barbara Nicholas Btructlonal Design; rB* Henrietta Barns Mr. Richard Prawat f. Donald Blskln Mrs. Vivian Riddle *• Celle Guro Mr. Terrill Taylor Sjrte administration: f. Judith Henderson, Course Coordinator Mrs. Marian Tesar, Administrative Assistant ‘•i Janls Johnson, Secretary Mrs. Jane Payne, Administrative Assistant 115 9/26 FIRST SESSION (L.G.) COURSE INTRODUCTION; At the end of the first session, you should be able to describe the teacher training programs at M.S.U. (I.e. course names and descriptions), and the general format, requirements and methods of evaluation for Education 200. You should know who to contact, and where, for various types of opportunities and/or problems associated with this course. In addition, you as prospective teachers should be aware of the vitality and critical Importance of education in our society today. Far from being a haven or refuge, Che schools of today are truly "where the action is." 9/29 SECOND SESSION (L.G.) UNIT ONE. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TEACHING AND LEARNING: THE IMPORTANCE OF SPEAKING BE HAVI ORALLY; session, you will recognise the following points: At the end of the second (1) the distinction between teaching and learning (i.e., teaching can be directly observed, learning oust be inferred; a teacher can be teaching one thing, the students learning something totally different; (2) the fact that teaching aims at a specific bit of learning (Intention enters in); (3) the fact that learning is best conceptualised, as well ti observed and measured, as a "change in behavior"; (4) the fact that statements of observable behavior must be used for the making of viable hypotheses regarding students' needs as well as for valid evaluation of behavioral change. In addition, you should be able to distinguish statements of observable behavior from nonobservable statements. Practice exercises will be available after class; these should be completed and brought to the following small group session. 1/30 THIRD SESSION (S.G.) SMALL GROUP INTRODUCTIONS OF PEOPLE AND PROCEDURES: HEARING BEHAVIORALLY s It Is important that the small group members (instructor tod students) get to know each other so one objective of this session Is to get your pictures; another is simply to have you interact. You will receive feedback 116 concerning your performance on the "recognising - behavioral - statements" exercises. You should now be able to demonstrate (verbally and In writing) an eblllty to operationalize or speak behaviorslly and explain the two reasons for this important skill; the first centering around the Importance of Intentions n teaching, and the fact that learning can only be seen as a change in behavior; the second centering around the need to gather information and construct valid hypotheses concerning students - both of which are facilitated by speaking in terms of specific behaviors. In addition, at this session application forma for the field trip and itudent education corps will be available. 10/1 FOURTH SESSION (L.G.) INTRODUCTION AND APPLICATION OF TEACHING MODEL! This session will be concerned with the three major classes of Instructional mrlsbles and the various tasks of teaching ao defined by the Teaching Model. It the end of this session you should be able to explain what is meant by 'Instructional Design" and "Instruction," and describe the various components of these two aspects of teaching. You should also be able to explain the tttlonale for the sequence in which the tasks are performed. You should be able to analyse given teaching situations by identifying and citing examples of the mrlous components. Practice exercises will be available after class; these ihould be completed and brought to the following small group session. 1Q/2 FIFTH SESSION (S.G.) FEEDBACK REGARDING APPLICATION OF MODEL AND Q U I Z ; toe you will briefly discuss your analysis of the teaching situations taken Iron yesterday's large group session. Questions over the content covered thus to will be entertained and a short qule to assess your mastery of Unit One ^Jectives will be given. 117 READING SCHEDULE, FALL TERM, 1969 The following five books will be used for required readings In Ed. 200. Titles Pete when reeding should be completed 16 Children, by Herbert Kohl, 1968. Oct. 1 The May It Spoaed To B e . by J Herndon, 1968. Oct. 3 Educations 1 Psychology in the Classroom. by Henry Cley Llndgren, 1967. Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter 3, Chapter 14 (p. 465-478) 13 2, Chapter 5 6, Chapter 14 (p. 478-494) 18 16 4 15 Oct. Oct, Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. Oct. 6 7 9 10 17 20 24 29 Educational Change and Architectural Consequences, by Educational Facilities Laboratories, Inc., 1968 Oct. 15 Preparing Instructional Objectives. by Robert F. Mager, 1962 Nov. 5 The required readings are those which Include Information considered essential to your mastery of the key concepts contained In this course. You will be held responsible for the Information presented In these readings as related to the course objectives. Chapters 17 (Oct. 15) and Saven (Nov. 19), Eight (Nov. 21), and Nine (Nov. 24) in Llndgren represent recommended readings; that Is, thay will, in >11 likelihood, increase your understanding of the course content. They are not, however, considered vital to your attainment of the course objectives. The remaining chapters in Llndgren (1, 10, 11, end 12) ere optional. They contain Information that may be of Interest to you as a prospective teacher but were considered either unnecessary or Inappropriate for this particular course. 118 EVALUATION PROCEDURES, FALL TERM, 1969 1. You will receive one of the following grades: 2.5, 2.0, 1.5, 1.0, .5. 4.5, 4.0, 3.5, 3.0, 2. Your evaluations will be based on Individual attainment of the course objectives. You will be asked to demonstrate objective attainment In a variety of ways. The course is divided Into four basic units, thus a test will be administered at the conclusion of each unit over the content objectives contained in that segment of the course. The tests will vary in type, some containing short answer, multiple choice, and production itesm. They will also vary In length and weight; the slse of the test, and weight assigned in terms of grade determination, will be based on the amount of content required for mastery. A multiple choice final exam will also be given. In addition, a part of the evaluation will be based on your performance on class assignments as wall as your contributions and participation in the small group sessions. 3. Your final grade will be computed according to the following: Measure Test - Unit #1 Test - Unit #2 Test - Unit #3 Test - Unit #4 Final Examination Small Group Participation X of final grade 5 20 10 15 25 25 10051 It Is anticipated that the following scale will be used for assigning grades: 95 - 100 90 94 ■ 85 - 89 80 m 84 75 - 79 70 «e 74 65 - 69 60 * 64 • 55 59 - 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 .5 119 OBJECTIVES - UNIT TWO ASSESSING AND DESCRIBING STATUS CONDITIONS: A teacher must assess student, environmental, and curricular givens. 11 Teaching a purposeful activity aimed at bringing about certain intended behavioral changes in students. A teacher must assess student "needs", the limitations and opportunities inherent in the environment, and the subject matter givens prior to the formulation Lf instructional goals or objectives. I The objectives ere based upon student needs. A teacher assesses student behavior by gathering behavioral data and construct­ ing "hypotheses". Hypotheses are hunches about student needs. myslcal, socla1-emotions1, and/or Intellectual in nature. These needs may be Because of the probabllistl liture of human behavior, student assessment is a difficult task. I Assessment of the classroom, school, and community environment Involves knowing bit variables are Important and how information about those variables may be acquired. I Assessment of curricular structure is a specialised task that necessitates loderstanding of subject matter hierarchies in both a general and specific sense, thus, a teacher must understand what is meant by facts, concepts, and principles, ■ad how these may be ordered within a discipline; a teacher must be able to identify I* important facts, concepts, and principles peculiar to his subject matter area. fcjECTIVES FOR "ASSESSING AND DESCRIBING STATUS CONDITIONS": I F The objectives for this sub-unit involving two levels of skills - production recognition-recall. The production objective for this sub-unit involves the Btthering of relevant data on, and the formulation of hypotheses about, the physical, t*la 1-emotional, and intellectual needs of a group of children. follow logically from the information provided. The hypotheses The recognition-recal1 objectives are prerequisite to the production task. These objectives may be listed according to the category of variable to be assessed tilMAN COMPONENTS Physical behavior: You should be able to identify (1) the variables to be issessed; (2) the reasons or rationale for this assessment; >y which this assessment can be carried out. (3) the ways or means You should be able to identify “normal" and "abnormal" physical characteristics for children of a given age range wd sex. From a number of alternatives, you should be able to choose the most probable effects of certain physical characteristics on social-emotional and [intellectual behavior. Related to this problem of the assessment of physical I'needs" is a more central question concerning the role of the school in promoting Ithe physical well being of students. Should the school assume responsibility for [factors such as nutrition, cleanliness, general health care, etc? You should Ik able to present arguments for, or against, the assusqatlon of such a role. I Social-emotional behavior: You should know and be able to identify the relevant social-emotional variables, such as personality characteristics, moral ktvelopment, etc., the rationale for the assessment of those variables, that is, Py ^ F Is important to assess those particular aspects of social-emotional behavior the means of assessment. You should be able to identify the various yardsticks P Moral Development - behavior, affect or feeling, and Judgment - and describe how l*y relate to one another. You should be able to Identify the Stages of Moral Judgment and select the most appropriate mode of moralising for each stage. I You should be able to identify the specific Indicators of social-emotional Pladjustment, such as negativism, withdrawal, etc., and list three criteria for Pferral of children with such problems. You should be able to describe the pobable social-emotional effects on children of certain modes of parent-child pteractlon. in addition, you should be able to identify the probable effects of f rtain social-emotional behaviors such as high need-achlevement, on intellectual 121 Intellectual behavior: You should be able to define the two approaches to intelligence, the cognitive-developmental and the psychometric approach, and identify ilallarities and differences between the two. You should be able to name the three ustmptlons and two requirements of intelligence tests. You should be able to ascribe the procedure used in determining test reliability, and be able to describe the rationale for Interpreting Intelligence test results in terms of a range of scores. You should be able to describe the two types of velldity. You should be able to explain the abuses of intelligence tests in terms of the violations nf certain assumptions discussed in class. You should be able to Identify the Stages of Cognitive Development and select ■the most appropriate mode of presenting instructional material for each stage. You libould be able to identify the Important Intellectual variables and how and why I'tch variable is to be assessed. I You should be able to identify the relevant Intellectual variables, how they lay be assessed, and reasons why they should be assessed. Ijavlronment - Classroom, school, consnunity. home; You should be able to Identify lavlronmental givens In the classroom and school which influence the formulation of Wbjectlves and the selection of teaching strategies. You should know which character­ istics of the community need to be considered for their probable impact on the school IM how a teacher may go about assessing those charecterlstics. You should be able |to “operationalize" the general categories of environmental variables— space, Imaory, and material conditions -- in relation to assessment of the home environment. Itat you should be able to name specific variables ( I . e . , amount of available study I'Ptce, number of reference books in the home) and describe how these variables affect Vchild*s intellectual, social-emotional, and physical behaviors. :urrlcular Structure: You should be able to identify end define the major :itegorles of curricular variables -- i.e., facts, low level concepts, abstract tMcspts, principles. You should be able to describe what to look for, and how to proceed when assessing curricular structure. For instance, you should be able to identify concepts and principles and explain how a teacher might go about selecting Jit concepts and principles basic to a given subject area. nder a hierarchy of concepts. You should be able to 123 OBJECTIVES - UNIT II, Part II SPECIFYING INTENDED CHANGES Instructional objectives, which are precise statements of teacher Intent in itudent performance terms are a logical necessity If teaching Is viewed as a purpose­ ful activity aimed at affecting specific changes In learner behavior. Thua, If teaching aims at bringing about certain changes In learners, the teacher must give wae consideration as to just what those changes are. kehavloral objective. This is the purpose of a A behavioral objective la a stateawnt of teacher Intent. It Is stated In student performance terms because the teacher Is trying to bring tout changes In learners, not In herself, although personal changes may be pre­ requisite to learner changes. if che students. Instructional objectives must be geared to the needs As we have already seen, these needs assume an order of priority, »lth physical needs paramount, social and emotional needs second, and intellectual seds third. If a child has an empty stomach, or la "turned off", his Thus, intellectual needs will probably go unfulfilled. Instructional objectives, then, of chree types - thoae concerned with physical changes, those concerned with uclal and emotional changes, and those concerned with Intellectual changes. IIECT1VES FOR "SPECIFYING INTENDED CHANGES": Objectives for this sub-unit Involve two levels of skills -- production and Mognltlon-recall. The production level objectives are two In number. The first Ml or objective is simply to be able to produce a good behavioral objective. * objective describes educational Intent in unambiguous performance terms. Such Thus, Iven students with certain "needs", you should be able to name the appropriate *J«ctive types and formulate several objectives geared to those needs. These 12k bjectives may represent day by day or unit by unit intentions. The second production task, a "convergent production" task, involves analyzing he terminal behavior and conditions of various objectives. Thus, given a statement f t behavioral objective, you should be able to categorize the "conditions" of that bjective, according to levels of abstractness, that is, you should be able to determl [concrete, pictorial, or semantic Information is to be processed by the student, u should also be able to categorize the "terminal behavior" specified in the bjective as to the type of mental operation involved, (i.e. recognition, recall, mvergent and divergent production, and evaluation). The recognitlon-recall tasks are prerequisite to the production tasks. They re listed below. First, you should be able to distinguish behavioral from non-behavloral statement [objectives, and distinguish between objectives or ends that are intellectual, Klal-emotlonal, or physical in nature. In addition you should be able to describe uc is meant by "beyond school behaviors", and how consideration of such behaviors ifluence the selection of "in-class analogue behaviors" known as instructional ijectives. Tn connection with the distinction, you should be able to describe what isesnt by "relevancy". Given a behavioral objective you should be able to, first, identify the "terminal thivlor" or what the learner is doing when he is demonstrating that he has achieved kt objective; second, identify the "conditions" under which the terminal behavior ■expected to occur; third, identify that part of the behavioral objective that idlcates the standard or "criterion" by which the terminal behavior is to be judged, is, the level of acceptable performance. fa« components of behavioral objectives: You should also be able to define these conditions, terminal behavior, and crlterl You should be able to cite reasons for the categorization of terminal behavior faceted as an Important third step in the process known as ''specifying Intended Chan falysls of terminal behavior tells a teacher something about prerequisite behaviors f 125 utructlonal strategies, and relevancy. ie Instructional objective.) It provides a means of "assessing" Finally, you should be able to define what Is meant f "Information types" (concrete, pictorial, semantic), "mental operations" recognition, recall, production), and "complexity levels" tlations). (units, classes, 126 EDUCATION 200 Spring 1970 Calendar of Large Group Sessions Personal Rewards Content Jinxed by weather Changing student-teacher relationship + Media presentation a.m. - McKee Report, High School Activists p.m. - Statewide perspective Ken Wood Gina Schrack Deeb, Sec. of Sti Bd. of Educatlc Changing Sex Role Expectations, focus on Women's Liberation Panel; Jackson, < Movie: 'We Are One” Economic-Social Dichotomies Intro, by Hurwlti t> Movie: rvcning Racism In the Classroom "The Black Experience” Al Hurwltz, Judy Jinx I vening "Rightness of Whiteness” "The Black Experience” Abe Citron Jinx Political Ramifications of Social Changes Rep. Jackie Vaugt Media: Willard, et al I II: 'Where Prejudice Is” Cave of the Shadows Task Demands Assessing the Enviroiunent and Its effects on people Robert Green Assessing Social-emotional needs and their effect on learning Don Freeman Intellectual Asscsssient: The psychometric point of view Keith Anderson Intellectual Assessment: The developmental point of view Don Freeman Quiz 1 on Assesssmnt (In-class) Behavioral Objectives: Why and How Quiz 11 on Objectives: Take hone due 5/25 Keith Anderson Analysis of Objectives Don Freeman Film on the application of Operant Strategies Judy Henderson Operant and Respondent Strategies Judy Henderson Respondent Strategies Elwood Miller Modeling: Anderson and Tayl Slides and Talk Final Take Home, due 6/9 127 DRAFT Minimum Expected Reading List - Education 200 (Spring 1970) Books: The Individual and the School (Workbook for Ed. 200) $5.00 The Student as Nl^ear. Jerry Farber, (paperback) $2.95 Racial Criaia In American Education. Robert Green, $7.95 Preparing Instructional Objectives. Robert Mager, $1.75 Developing Attitude Toward Learning. Robert Mager, $2.00 36 Children. Herbert Kohl, $.95 Tins Table: April 10 Workbook: Handout: Farber: April 17 Course Objectives (p. 1-3) Born Female (p. 85-99) McKee Report The Student as Nigger Workbook: On Values (p. 9-19) On Making Morality Operational (p. 36-43) Green: Racial Crisis In American Education, Chpt. 14 Workbook: Green: The Rightness of Whiteness (p. 68-83) The Myth of Negro Progress (p. 63-67) Chapters 7 and 12. April 28 Kohl: Green: 36 Children Chapters 6 end 11. May 1 Workbook: Teaching Model (p. 116-118) Unit Two Objectives on Assessment (114-115, 129-132) Kay 8 Workbook: Assessing Social-Emotional Behavior (p. 179-182) The Child as a Moral Philosopher (p. 187-194) May 15 Workbook: Requirements for Intelligence Tests (p. 140-149) How a Childs Mind Develops (p. 172-178) Assessing Intellectual Behavior (p. 133-135) May 22 Workbook: Mager: Unit Two Objectives (p. 219-221) Probing the Velldlty of Arguments Against Behavioral Goals (p. 222-227) Preparing Instructional Objectives May 29 Green: Chapters 5, 8 and 10 June 4 Handout: Respondent and Operant Strategies Mager : Developing Attitude Toward Learning April 21 A PP ENDIX D ITEM POOL FOR E X P E R I ME N TA L INSTRUMENT FO RM I 129 I N S T R U C T I O N S : On the following pages, you will find a series of situations that are likely to occur in the everyd ay life of a teacher. The central person in each situation Is faced with a choice bet ween two alternative courses o f action, which we might call X and Y. Alternative X Is more desirable and attractive than alternative Y but the probab i li t y of a tt a ining or achie vi n g X is less than that of a t ta ining or ac h ie v in g Y. For each si tuation on the fo llowing pages, you will be asked to indicate the m i n i m u m odds of success you wo u ld dem and before r e co m me n di n g that the more attractive or desirable alternative, X, be chosen. Read each situation carefully before g iving yo u r J u d g ­ ment. Try to place y ou r s e l f in the p o sition of the central person In each o f the situations. There are twelve situations in all. Please do not omit any o f them. 1. Miss A, a newly certified teacher, is looking for a t e a c h ­ ing Job. Aft er a cons iderable n umber of interviews, she is offered two contracts. One p o si t io n is in Willow Run, a suburban community in wh i ch she wo u ld earn a good salary p re p a r i n g student s for college. In Willow Run she would have few be h a v i o r problems. Also Miss A w ou l d have few c h a l l e n gi n g experiences. The other contract is with Mi ddletown, an urban s ystem w h i c h is currently "heated" be cause its majority Black p op u la t io n demands local c o n­ trol of the schools. Miss A feels she wo u ld derive great s atisfa c ti o n from w o r k i n g w i t h economically deprived stu ­ dents but Is fearful that she might not be retained once local control Is realized. Imagine that y o u are ad vi s i n g Miss A. Listed below are several probabilities or odds that her contract will be renewed In Middletown. Please check the lowest probability that you would consider acceptable to make it wo r th w hi l e for Miss A to sign the Mi ddletown contract. The chances are 1 in 10 stay on at Middletown. The chances are 3 in 10 stay on at Middletown. The chances are 5 in 10 stay on at Middletown. The chances are 7 in 10 stay on at Middletown. The chances are 9 In 10 stay on at Middletown. Place a check here if y take the Job no m a tt e r that she w i n be asked to that she will be asked to that she will be asked to that she will be asked to that she will be asked to think Miss A should not t the probabilities. 130 2. Mr. B, a first year teacher In a small town high-school, Is about to attend a social science departmental meeting. It Is the middle of the school y e a r and he has noticed that all the teachers in the department seem to do "their own thing" in their instruction. He feels strongly that there ought to be more co- ordination in the department curric u l um and that the lack of o rg anization does the students a great misservlce. He perceives two courses of action. He can openly confront his colleagues w it h his pe rceptions but they might possibly become defensive, regard hi m as a y oung upstart, and no change will result or they might welcome a fresh approach. Mr. B's other course of action is to sway th em by the ex ample o f his own o rg a ni z at i on and attempt in private conversations to in­ fluence them In a n o n - t h r e a t e n i n g way. This second method is surer but slo wer and in the mea ntime many students will not receive the benefit of a more c o -ordinated approach. Imagine that yo u are ad v ising Mr. B. L isted below are se veral probab i li t ie s or odds that his fellow teachers will react favorably to confrontation. Please check the lowest prob ability that you wo u ld con­ sider acceptable f^or Mr. B to speak up in the meeting. The chances are 9 in 10 that the teachers will react favorably. The chances are 7 In 10 that the teachers will react favorably. The chances are 5 In 10 that the teachers will react favorably. The chances are 3 in 10 that the teachers will react favorably. The chances are 1 in 10 that the teachers will react favorably. Place a check here if you think Mr. B should not directly confront his f e l l o w - t e a c h e r s . 3. Mr. D, a special e du c at i on teacher, has b e en assigned to a class o f students whose truancy rate is three times that of the regular students in the school. He would very much like to initiate c on s ul t at i on wi th a nearby univers ity about these students. If he asks for the university's help without talking it over wi t h his principal, the u n i ­ versity will almost certainly help, but if the principal finds out he will be In a lot of trouble. But, on the oth e r hand, k no w in g the pr in cipal as he does, if Mr. D talks to him about the un iversity's consultation, he will not allow it. Imagine that you are advisi n g Mr. D. Listed below are several p r ob a bi l it i es or odds that the principal will not find out about the consultation. Please check the lowest probab i li t y that you would consider acceptable for Mr. D to consult with the university. 131 Place a check here If you think that Mr. D should not "consult independently no m a t t e r what the p ro babilities The chance are 9 in 10 that the principal will not "find o u t . are 7 in 10 that the p ri n cipal will not find o u t . are 5 in 10 that the principal will not find o u t . are 3 in 10 that the principal wil l not find o u t . are 1 in 10 that the p rincipal will not find o u t . Mr. E, a young, single teacher , has an a ttractive girl in his h igh-school class who d e sp e ra t el y needs someone to take a special interest in her. He seems to have b e tt e r rapport wi th her than any of the teachers in the school. She comes af ter school to talk to h im but must leave soon because the students are b us s ed in to school each day. These after school talks seem to help h e r but they are ove r before they get to talk about a ny t h i n g meaningful. Mr. E wishes they could talk at length and after c o n s i d e r i n g many a l t e r n a ­ tives decides that the only feasible, n o n - t h r e a t e n i n g way is for him to offer to drive he r home the next time she starts to "open up" in her conversations. Mr. E realizes that al though this time to talk in a more relaxed, natural a tmosph e re might be very help ful to the girl, the community might not approve. He wo u ld face the p o s s i b i l i t y of be i ng fired. Imagine that you are a d vi s in g Mr. E. List ed below are several p r o b a b i li t ie s or odds that the community would look w i th d i sf a v o r on Mr. E. Please check the lowest p r o b a b il i ty that you w o u l d con­ s ider ac c e pt a bl e for M r . E to o ff e r the girl a ride home. The chances are 1 in 10 that no unfavo r ab l e community re action will ensue. The chances are 3 in 10 that no u n f a v or a bl e community re action will ensue. The chances are 5 in 10 that no unfav o ra b le community reactio n will ensue. The chances are 7 in 10 that no unfavo r ab l e community re action will ensue. The chances are 9 in 10 that no unfavo ra b le community re action will ensue. Place a check here if you think Mr. E should not offer to drive the girl home, no m a t t e r what the pr o babilities 132 5. Mr. P Is a high-school social science teacher who believes that grades emphasize external punishment or rewards for learning and not internal motives. He wo u ld like to a b ol ­ ish grades in class because he w o ul d like his students to learn for t h e m s e l v e s , not for him. If he does abolish grades he faces the prospect of censure from parents, fe l ­ low teachers and a d mi n is t ra t io n and the p o s s i b il i ty that some of his students, be c au s e they are so conditioned to lea rning only for a grade, will stop do ing a n ything in his class. On the o t he r hand, if he continues gr ading most of his students learn most of the material eve n If it is for the wrong reasons. Imagine that you are ad v i s i n g Mr. P. Listed below are several probabilities or odds that the community will be upset and the students will waste their time. Please check the lowest probability that you w o u l d conside: acceptable to make it w o rt h w h i l e for Mr. P to stop giving grades. Place a check here if yo u think Mr. P should ~to give grades no m a tt er what. The chances are 9 in 10 that the reaction to grades will be unfavorable, The chances are 7 In 10 that the reaction to "grades will be unfavorable, The chances are 5 in 10 that the reac tion to "grades will be unfavorable, The chances are 3 in 10 that the reaction to grades will be unfavorable, The chances are 1 In 10 that the reaction to "grades will be unfavorable. 6. continue stopping stopping stopping stopping stopping Mr. I has b e en t ea ching for 10 years at Red Oak school. The prin cipal Is re tiring next year and Mr. I is almost sure to get the Job. He is w e l l - l i k e d in the community. He is looking forward to the Increase in pay and the chance to improve the educational e x pe r ie n ce of the students at Red Oak. There Is a P.T.A. m ee t i n g coming up on wh ether or not sex educa t io n should come to Red Oak. Mr. I knows well the feeling of the more influential parents. They are opposed to sex education. Mr. I believes Red Oak children need sex education. If he speaks up at the next m e e t i n g there is a good chance he can influence the un de­ cided parents b e cause of his pr estige in the community. However, If he does so he will o ffend the more powerful elemen ts In the community and his chances for the principalship with all of the a c c o m p an y in g good he could do In that pos ition are reduced. If he doesn*t say a ny t hi n g at the meeting, the princi p al s hi p is his but sex education is lost. Imagine that you are a dv ising Mr. I. Listed bel ow are several possibilities or odds that Mr. I will still get the p ri n cipalship even if he does speak out. 133 Please check the lowest probabi l it y that you would con­ sider acceptable to make It worthw hi l e for Mr. I to try to sway the P.T.A. Place a check here If you think Mr. I should not attempt probabilities. to sway the meet ing no ma t t e r what the ; The chances are 1 in 10 that Mr. I will still be principal. The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. I will still be principal. The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. I will still be principal. The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. I will still be principal. The chances are 9 in 10 that Mr. I will still be principal. 7. Mr. J's Human Relations class has Just returned from the a u d i t o r i u m from a required Veteran's Day assembly. The main speaker, who the pr incipal Invited, lauded at length America's m il itary ac hievements from Generals Custer to Westmoreland. Mr. J had taught his class all year long the way to avoid n u c l e a r ho locaust was international coop­ eration. One of the students inspired by the speaker's remarks, p r o c l a i m e d that America should bomb the out of the Communists. Mr. J feels angry and o b li gated to res p on d to the r emark and the V et e ran's Day speaker. He would like to hold a sober d is c us s i o n and have the s tu ­ dents express their viewpoints but little time is left in the class pe r io d and by t om orrow the students would no longer be e x ci t ed by the issue. However, if Mr. J expresses his own political viewpo int he may get to make a point he has b e en t r ying to get across all y e ar but he stands a good chance that what he says will get back to the principal, who will disapprove. Imagine that you are a d vi s i n g Mr. J. Listed below are several p ro b ab i li t ie s or odds that his or a ti o n will not be retold to the principal. Please check the lowest p ro b ab i li t y that w ou l d consider a cceptable to make it w or t hw h i l e for Mr. J to tell the students what he thought about the Veteran's Day speaker. Place a check here if you think Mr. J should not tell the students what he thought about the speaker no m a t t e r what the probabilities. The chances are 9 in 10 that the prin cipal won't hear about it. The chances are 7 in 10 that the principal won't hear about it. The chances are 5 in 10 that the principal won' t hear about it. The chances are 3 in 10 that the principal won't hear about it. The chances are 1 in 10 that the principal won 11 hear about it. 13^ 8. Mr. K is In a faculty meeting. Miss White, a fellow teacher, has Just had an argument with the principal about a committee report.- The school is go ing thr ough a c c r e d i t a ­ tion by North Central A c c r ed i ti n g Association. Miss White, the chairman of the a d m i n i st r at i on - fa c ui t y relations c o m­ mittee, turn ed in a report stating that the relations be tween the p r in cipal and teachers leave so m et h in g to be desired. Mr. K believes Miss White has a valid point. He thinks he shou ld support her but if he says a n y t h i n g the p rincipal may be offended. Imagine you are advising Mr. K. L isted be l o w are several p robabi l it i es or odds that the pr incipal will not be offende< Please check the lowest pr o ba b il i ty that you w o u l d consider a cceptable to make it w o r t h w h i l e to support Miss White. The chances are 1 out of 10 that the principal will not be offended. The chances are 3 out of 10 that the principal will not be offended. The chances are 5 out of 10 that the principal will not be offended. The chances are 7 out of 10 that the principal will not be offended. The chances are 9 out of 10 that the pr incipal will not be offended. Place a c heck here if you think Mr. K should not sup port Miss White no m at t er what the probabilities. 9. Mr. L has b e en a pp r oa ch e d by a group o f students to sign a petit io n ci r cu l at i ng In the school to abolish the dress code. Mr. L has taught his classes about social act ion and In fact the p e t i t i o n was started by a student In his class. He fears he will lose face with his students as he does not now enforce the code in his classes. However, the p e t i t i o n wi ll be p r e s e n t e d to the p ri n ci p al and the superintendent. If he signs it he might be called on the carpet. Imagine that you are a d vising Mr. L. Listed below are several p r o b a bi l it i es or odds that he will not be called on the carpet. Please check the lowest p r o b a bi l it y that you would con sider ac ceptable to make it w o r t h wh i le for Mr. L to sign the petition. 135 Place a check here If you think Mr. L should not sign the petition no m a t t e r what the probabilities. The chances are 9 In 10 that M r . L will be called on the carpet. The chances are 7 in 10 that Mr. L will be called on the carpet. The chances are 5 in 10 that Mr. L will be called on the carpet. The chances are 3 in 10 that Mr. L will be called on the carpet. The chances are 1 In 10 that Mr. L will be called on the carpet. 10. Miss O, a fifth grade teacher, has a class of children who refuse to stop t a l k 4 ’"^ wh e n she Is p r es e nt i ng the lesson. She feels If she could stop a few of the leaders she could solve her problem. She could continue to discour a ge t a l k ­ ing out of turn and in time the t al k in g w o ul d stop, but me anwhile every student wo uld not he a r the lesson. Miss 0 thinks that a q u ic k er way to stop the t a lking would be to place adhesive tape over the offenders' mouths to shock th em Into re a li z in g that they must stop. However, If she does this she's likely to be severely c r it i ci z ed by the parents. Imagine you are advising Miss 0. Listed below are several p ro b ab i li t ie s o r odds that Miss 0 will not be critic ized by the parents. Please check the lowest p r o b a b il i ty that you would con­ sider accep table for Miss 0 to tape the child ren's mouths. The chances are 1 in 10 that the parents will The chances are 3 in 10 that the parents will The chances are 5 in 10 that the parents will The chances are 7 In 10 that the pare nts will The chances are 9 In 10 that the parents will Place a check here if you think Miss 0 should the children no m a t t e r what the probabilities. 11. not not not not not not object object object object object tape Mr. P, a te ac her In the local high school, has been active in his opposi t io n to d