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75 - 14,804
PALMER, Jan S c o tt, 1947AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SENTENCING AND
RECIDIVISM IN THE MICHIGAN CRIMINAL
JUSTICE SYSTEM.
Michigan S ta te U n iv e rs ity , P h .D ., 1974
Economics, theory

Xerox University Microfilms,

© C o p y r i g h t by
JAN SCOTT PALMER
1974

A nn A rb o r, M ic h ig a n 48 1 0 6

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SENTENCING AND RECIDIVISM
IN THE MICHIGAN CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM
By
Jan S c o t t P alm er

A DISSERTATION
Subm itted to
M ichigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y
in p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f th e r e q u ir e m e n ts
f o r the d egree o f
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY
Department o f Economics
1974

ABSTRACT
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF SENTENCING AND RECIDIVISM
IN THE MICHIGAN CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM
By
Jan S c o t t P a l m e r

T his
generates

th esis

p r e s e n t s tw o m o d e l s .

The f i r s t , E h r l i c h ' s ,

hypotheses about in d iv id u a l p a r t ic ip a t io n

in c r i m e .

The

s e c o n d m o d e l g e n e r a t e s h y p o t h e s e s a b o u t how j u d g e s and p a r o l e b o a r d s
respond to crim e.
lea sed

B o t h m o d e l s a r e t e s t e d u s i n g d a t a on f e l o n s

re­

from M i c h i g a n p r i s o n s .
The f i r s t m o d e l i s

t e s t e d u sin g n o n -lin e a r r e g r e ss io n w ith

t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f e l o n ’s r e c i d i v i s m , t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f e l o n ' s
b e i n g w h i t e , and t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f e l o n ' s
crim e a s dependent v a r i a b l e s .

The r e s u l t s

com m itting a s k i l l e d

g e n e r a l l y support the

m odel.

For exam ple,

ceteris

p a r i b u s , b e t t e r e d u c a t e d t h a n p e r s o n s who commit l e s s

crim es.

p e r s o n s who commit more s k i l l e d

A lso because o f r a c ia l d isc r im in a tio n

non-w hite c r im in a ls a r e ,

ceteris

crim es a r e ,
sk illed

in la w f u l o c c u p a t i o n s ,

p a r i b u s , b e t t e r e d u c a t e d than w h it e

crim in a ls.
The s e c o n d m o d e l i s

t e s t e d u s i n g d a t a on f o u r c r i m e c a t e g o r i e s :

r o b b e r y , b u r g l a r y , a s s a u l t - m u r d e r , and a u t o - t h e f t .
fu n ction o f r a c e , ed u ca tio n , a g e , m a rita l s t a t u s ,
previous type o f reco rd ,
There

Sentencing

is a

number o f d e p e n d e n t s ,

t y p e o f p l e a , an d b e i n g t r i e d

in D e t r o i t .

is evidence o f j u d i c i a l d is c r im in a tio n a g a in s t n o n -w h ite s,

persons

Jan S c o t t Palm er

who p l e a b a r g a i n , an d p e r s o n s who i n s i s t o n h a v i n g t h e i r c a s e s
There i s

i n t e r a c t i o n betw een the

tried .

p a r o l e b o a r d and t h e j u d g e s w i t h

th e p a r o l e b o a r d s o m e t i m e s a g r e e i n g a n d s o m e t i m e s d i s a g r e e i n g w i t h
th e ju d g e s ' d e te r m in a tio n o f optim al s e n t e n c e s .
T his t h e s i s
econ om ists

Is c o n s i s t e n t w i t h s e v e r a l r e c e n t works by

i n s h o w i n g t h a t e c o n o m i c t h e o r y c an g e n e r a t e u s e f u l

h y p o th e se s abou t c r i m i n a l b e h a v io r and a b o u t s o c i e t y ' s
crim e.

response to

TO

FAMILY

AC KNOWLEDGEMENTS

I w ish t o thank th e f o ll o w i n g p eo p le:
P r o f e s s o r D a n i e l Hamermesh, Ch ai rm an o f t h i s
w i t h o u t whose g u id a n c e t h i s

th esis

com m ittee,

t h e s i s would n e v e r have been c o m p le te d ;

P r o f e s s o r s B r u c e A l l e n , P a u l G i n s b u r g , a n d M a r v in Zalman f o r
t h e i r p a t i e n t h e l p and c r i t i c i s m ;
P r o f e s s o r s Warren S a m u e l s a n d R o b e r t R a s c h e f o r t h e i r a d v i c e
and e n c o u r a g e m e n t ;
Mr. P a t t e r s o n T e r r y o f t h e M i c h i g a n C o r r e c t i o n s D e p a r t m e n t
for h i s very co n sid era b le e f f o r t

in p r o v i d i n g th e d a t a ;

P r o f e s s o r R o b i n B a r t l e t t f o r h e r h e l p and c o n c e r n .

iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
LIST OF TABLES

vi

LIST OF FIGURES

v ii

CHAPTER I
1.1
1.2

Introduction
A n a l y t i c a l Fra mewo rk

1
2

Introduction
The E h r l i c h M o d e l o f C r i m i n a l B e h a v i o r
C r im e an d E d u c a t i o n
R ecid ivism
The S o c i a l V i e w o f Cr im e
The J u d i c i a l R o l e
J u d ic ia l D iscrim in ation
The M i c h i g a n C o u r t s
The R o l e o f t h e P a r o l e B oa rd
C onclusion

7
7
9
10
15
20
25
27
28

Introduction
The D a t a
Technique
R esults
C onclusion

32
33
37
39
69

CHAPTER XI
2.1
2.2
2 .3
2 .4
2 .5
2 .6
2.7
2 .8
2 .9
2.1 0

8

CHAPTER I I I
3.1
3.2
3 .3
3 .4
3 .5
CHAPTER IV
4.1
4 .2
4 .3
4 .4

4 .5
4 .6
CHAPTER V

Introduction
Da t a
Technique
R ecid ivism
W hite
Type I I Crim e
I n d i v i d u a l Type I C r i m e s
C onclusion
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

iv

73
74
76
77
80
81
83
92
94

APPENDIX A
APPENDIX B
LIST OF REFERENCES

L IS T OF TABLES

Page
24
34
35
35
36
40
43
48
51
53
58
60
64

66
75
78
82
84

86
88

90

vi

L IS T OF FIGURES

F igure

Page
.......

2.1

16

2.2

23

2 .3

23

2 .4

23

2.5

26

3.1

45

3 .2

46

3 .3

50

3 .4

56

3.5

57

3 .6

63

A.1

100

A .2

100

A. 3

101

V ii

CHAPTER I

1 .1

INTRODUCTION
T his t h e s i s

a n a ly sis

d ea ls w ith crim in a l b eh a v io r.

I t u s e s econom ic

t o d e v e l o p m o d e l s o f c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r and o f s o c i e t y ' s

response to crim e.

T h e s e m o d e l s a r e t h e n t e s t e d by u s i n g d a t a fr om

th e M ichigan Department o f C o r r e c t i o n s .
There a r e

in c r i m i n o l o g y two s c h o o l s o f

thought about crim e.

The C l a s s i c a l s c h o o l , w h i c h i s b a s i c a l l y a c r e a t i o n o f B e n t h a m ,
b eliev es

t h a t crim es a r e com m itted by t h o s e

d i s u t i l i t y o f th e e x p e c t e d punishment i s
the c r i m i n a l a c t .

p e r s o n s f o r whom t h e

less

than t h e u t i l i t y

of

C r im e c a n b e s t o p p e d by i n c r e a s i n g t h e d i s u t i l i t y .

T h e r e f o r e , punishment

i s a d e te r r e n t to crim e. ^

The o t h e r s c h o o l b e l i e v e s

t h a t p e o p l e commit c r i m e s b e c a u s e

th e y have n o t " i n t e r n a l i z e d th e norm ," or t h e i r v a l u e s a r e s u b ­
s ta n tia lly d ifferen t

fr o m t h a t o f t h e g r e a t e r s o c i e t y .

T herefore,

cr im e can be s t o p p e d by r e h a b i l i t a t i n g t h e c r i m i n a l — in econ om ic
terms

- - by changing the u t i l i t y

he no lo n g er

fu n c tio n o f the c r im in a l such th a t

" n e e d s " o r " w a n t s " t o com mi t c r i m e s .

not n e c e ssa r ily com p etitive.
n o t deny punishm ent d e t e r s

I n d e e d , most s c h o l a r s

some c r i m e .

concerned w ith r e h a b i l i t a t i o n

These t h e o r ie s a re

They a r e ,

than d e t e r r e n c e .

in t h e f i e l d

do

h o w e v e r , much more

2

U n t i l v e r y r e c e n t l y e c o n o m is ts have ig n o red crim e e i t h e r b e ­
cause th ey c o n sid e re d

it

unworthy o f c o n s i d e r a t i o n or b e c a u s e th e y

2

felt

the

tools

o f economic th e o r y c o u ld n o t e x p l a i n c r im i n a l b e h a v io r .

R ecently Becker,
reasons

is

d itio n a lly

E h rlich

correct.

4

a n d o t h e r s h a v e shewn t h a t n e i t h e r o f t h e s e

C r im e i s a s

im p ortant a s any o f th e

c o n s i d e r e d by e c o n o m i s t s .

c r i m e was a t
contrast

3

least

four percent

the econom ic c o s t

Crime t o u c h e s t h e d a i l y
them t o s t a y

issu es

tra­

In 1965 the econ om ic c o s t o f

of the reported n a t io n a l

incom e.

o f u n em p lo y m e n t was a b o u t tw o p e r c e n t .

l i v e s o f m il l i o n s o f A m ericans.

It

of d o lla r s

5

forces

in a t nigh ^ , t o a v o i d l a r g e s e c t i o n s o f c i t i e s ,

s t r a n g e r s , and t o spend m i l l i o n s

In

to shun

on s e l f - p r o t e c t i o n .

E h r l i c h h a s shown t h a t B e n t h a m i t e t h e o r i e s o f human b e h a v i o r g e n e r a t e
testab le

hyp otheses reg a rd in g crim e.

sta n tia lly

d ifferen t

C rim inal b eh a v io r

is not su b ­

from n o n - c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r , a n d j u s t a s e c o n o m i c

t h e o r y can e x p l a i n

d e c is io n s about labor fo rce p a r t ic ip a t io n ,

sum ption, e t c . ,

can a l s o e x p l a i n c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r .

1 .2

it

con­

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK
C hapter I I

presents

tw o m o d e l s .

model o f i n d i v i d u a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n
Isaac E h rlich

The f i r s t

i s a summary o f a

in c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y

in h i s d o c t o r a l t h e s i s . ^

d e v e l o p e d by

The s e c o n d i s a m o d e l o f how

s o c i e t y r e s p o n d s t o c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y w i t h p a r t i c u l a r e m p h a s i s on
the r o l e
(1)

of the sen ten cin g ju dge.

T hese m odels

in tera ct

The s e n t e n c i n g j u d g e c o n s i d e r s t h e e f f e c t o f h i s

i n two w a y s :

s e n t e n c i n g on

t h e f u t u r e c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r o f b o t h t h e c o n v i c t an d t h o s e who a r e
d e t e r r e d by t h e c o n v i c t ' s s e n t e n c e .

( 2 ) The p o t e n t i a l c r i m i n a l ,

when d e c i d i n g w h e t h e r o r n o t t o c om m it a c r i m e ,
sentence

i f he i s c a u g h t and c o n v i c t e d .

expected sentence

i s an e l e m e n t t h e

con sid ers h is expected

In o th e r w ords,

( 1 ) The

I n d i v i d u a l c o n s i d e r s when d e c i d i n g

3

how many a n d wha t t y p e s o f c r i m e s t o c o m m i t .

( 2 ) The amou nt a n d

t y p e s o f c r im e s a p e r so n com m itted a r e an e le m e n t
the ju d g e

im poses.

in the s e n t e n c e

( 3 ) The s e n t e n c i n g o f t h e j u d g e

future crim in al a c t i v i t y

in flu en ces

o f the c o n v i c t .

T h i s t h e s i s a l s o c o n s i d e r s tw o a d d i t i o n a l s e t s
hypotheses.

The f i r s t

of testa b le

s e t , w h ich i s g e n e r a t e d by th e E h r l i c h model

o f c r im in a l b e h a v io r , d e a ls w it h th e r e l a t i o n s h i p between
unlaw ful s k i l l s .

l a w f u l an d

The s e c o n d s e t , w h i c h i s g e n e r a t e d b y t h e m o d e l o f

the ju d g e 's s e n t e n c in g r o l e , d e a ls w it h d i s p a r i t y
(1)

the

Judges d is c r im in a t e a g a i n s t b l a c k s ,

(2)

in s e n t e n c i n g :

judges d is c r im in a te

a g a i n s t p e r s o n s who h a v e p l e a b a r g a i n e d .
C h a p t e r s I I I a n d IV u s e t h e c r i m i n a l h i s t o r i e s
released

fr om M i c h i g a n p r i s o n s t o

test

o f persons

t h e s e h y p o t h e s e s by m e a s u r i n g

th e r e l a t i o n s h i p s betw een dem ographic background and c r im e ; betw een
c r i m e s an d d e m o g r a p h i c b a c k g r o u n d s a n d s e n t e n c i n g ; b e t w e e n s e n t e n c i n g
an d d e m o g r a p h i c b a c k g r o u n d s a n d r e c i d i v i s m .
p olicy

im p lic a tio n s o f the r e s u lt s

C hapter V d i s c u s s e s

o f C hapters

the

I I t h r o u g h IV.

A l t h o u g h t h e s e t o p i c s h a v e a l r e a d y b e e n r e s e a r c h e d by
c r i m i n o l o g i s t s and s o c i o l o g i s t s ,
ing reasons:
a llo w in g for

It treats

th is

th esis

the c r im in a l j u s t i c e

i n t e r a c t i o n betw een

a s im u lta n e o u s e q u a tio n m odel,

i s unique f o r th e f o l l o w ­
s y s t e m a s a s y s t e m by

the d e c i s i o n m ak ers.

i t measures the e f f e c t

By t h e u s e o f
o f both j u d i c i a l

s e n t e n c i n g an d p a r o l e b o a r d d e c i s i o n m a k i n g on p r i s o n s e n t e n c e s .
then m easures th e e f f e c t
th is

th esis

to p red ict

contain s

o f p rison sen ten ces

the f i r s t

parole s u c c e s s .

on r e c i d i v i s m .

It

F in a lly ,

use o f n o n -lin e a r r e g r e ss io n a n a ly s is

A lthough th e r e

i s a volum inous

litera tu re

A

on p r e d i c t i n g p r o b a t i o n a n d p a r o l e s u c c e s s ,

the q u a lity o f the

s t a t i s t i c a l methods u s e d i s s o lo w t h a t t h e r e s u l t s a r e o f v e r y
qu estion ab le v a lu e .

7

5

F o o tn o te s C hapter I

1

J e r e m y B e n t h a m , T h e o r y o f L e g i s l a t i o n , ( e d i t e d by C .K . O g d e n ) ,
(New Y o r k :

H a rco u rt, 1931)

p. 2 3 9 -4 7 2 .

H e r b e r t L . P a c k e r , The L i m i t s o f t h e C r i m i n a l S a n c t i o n , ( S t a n f o r d :
Stanford U n iv ersity P r e s s ,
2

1968).

S e e D o n a l d R. T a f t a n d R a lp h W. E n g l a n d , J r . , Cr i m i n o l o g y . ( 4 t h e d . ) ,
(New Y o r k :

M acm illan, 1 9 6 4 ).

Edwin H. S u t h e r l a n d an d D o n a l d R. C r e s s e y , P r i n c i p l e s
in o lo g y . (7th e d . ) ,

(P h ilad elp h ia:

For a p o s s ib le e x p la n a tio n
t h e o r i e s s e e X. E h r l i c h ,

L ip p in c o tt , 1966) Chapters 4 ,

"The D e t e r r e n t E f f e c t o f C r i m i n a l Law

276; e s p e c ia lly

footnote

Gar y S . B e c k e r ,

' t r i m e an d P u n i s h m e n t :

1 (June, 1972)

p . 25 9 -

7 pa ge 2 6 0 .

J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l Economy. V o l .

An E c o n o m i c A p p r o a c h ,

11

76, n o. 2 (M arch/A pril, 1968)

p. 5 2 6 -5 3 6 .
4

Isaac E h rlich ,

p a rticip a tio n

In I l l e g i t i m a t e A c t i v i t i e s :

A

T h e o r e t i c a l and E m p i r i c a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l
Economy . V o l . 8 1 , n o .
5

Isaac E h rlich ,

3 (M ay/June, 1973)

P a rticip a tio n

p. 5 2 1 - 5 6 5 .

In I l l e g i t i m a t e A c t i v i t i e s :

An

E conom ic A n a l y s i s " ( u n p u b l is h e d D o c t o r ' s d i s s e r t a t i o n , Columbia
U n i v e r s i t y , 1970)

p.

5.

f o r the wide a c c e p t a n c e o f n o n - d e t e r r e n c e

E n forcem en t," Jou rn al o f L eg a l S t u d i e s , V o l.

3

o f Cr im -

1.

6

Ib id .

7

F o r e x a m p l e s e e Dean V . B a b s t and o t h e r s ,

'tom parison of M u ltip le

R e g r e s s i o n an d C o n f i g u r a l A n a l y s i s T e c h n i q u e s F o r D e v e l o p i n g B a s e
E x p e c t a n c y T a b l e s , " J o u r n a l o f R e s e a r c h i n Cr im e a n d D e l i n q u e n c y .

6

V ol. 5 , no.

1 (January, 1968) p . 7 2 -8 0 .

Don G o t t f r e d s o n ,

" A s s e s s m e n t o f M e t h o d s , " Cr im e an d J u s t l c e :

V o l . 3.: The C r i m i n a l In C o n f i n e m e n t . ( R a d z i n o w i c z a n d W o l f g a n g
ed ito rs),

(New Y o r k :

B a sic Books, 1971)

p. 3 4 2 -3 7 5 .

CHAPTER I I

2.1

INTRODUCTION
T his ch a p ter p r e s e n t s

C h a p t e r s I I I a n d IV.
model ( S e c t i o n s
t o crim e

the h y p o th eses w hich a re t e s t e d

T h e s e h y p o t h e s e s a r e d e r i v e d fr o m E h r l i c h ' s

2 .2 ,

2 . 3 ) an d fr o m a m o d e l o f s o c i e t y ' s

(S ection s 2 .5 ,

2 .6 ,

2 .7 ).

response

B o t h o f t h e s e m o d e l s u s e one

o f th e t r a d i t i o n a l assu m ptions o f econ om ics:
It

in

r a tio n a l b eh avior.

i s a s s u m e d t h a t a n i n d i v i d u a l ’s c r i m i n a l a c t s a n d s o c i e t y ’s

r e s p o n s e a r e b a s e d on a t t e m p t s t o m a x i m i z e r e l e v a n t u t i l i t y

func-

t ion s.

2 .2

THE EHRLICH MODEL OF CRIMINAL BEHAVIOR
The f o l l o w i n g

m odel.

i s a summary o f t h e c o n c l u s i o n s

A more d e t a i l e d summary i s

presented

o f the E h r lic h

i n A p p e n d i x A.

Assume a p e r s o n h a s a f i n i t e amount o f t i m e t o a l l o c a t e among
leisu re,

leg itim a te

wage f o r l a w f u l

l a b o r , and c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t i e s , C^.

labor,

There

(T^) , a wage f o r u n l a w f u l l a b o r ,

is a
(T^) ,

a p r o b a b i l i t y o f c a p t u r e and c o n v i c t i o n , P ^ , an e x p e c t e d s e n t e n c e
given c o n v ic tio n ,
le g a l m arket,

(T ^),and a p r o b a b i l i t y
(T^) .

The m o d e l s h o w s
a ctiv ity

is a fu n ction
( 1)
(2 )

o f u n em p lo y m e n t i n t h e

that the d e c is io n

to engage

in c r i m i n a l

of

t h e w a ge f o r l a w f u l m a r k e t a c t i v i t i e s ,
t h e w a ge ( p e c u n i a r y a n d n o n p e c u n i a r y ) f o r u n l a w f u l
market a c t i v i t i e s ,
7

8

(3)
(4)
(5)

the e x p e c te d s e n te n c e g iv e n c o n v i c t i o n ,
the p r o b a b ility o f c o n v ic tio n ,
a t t i t u d e towards r i s k .

I n m a t h e m a t i c a l fo r m t h e b e h a v i o r a l r e l a t i o n

cij m *i (pi j • Fu - wu - V
(i

is

th e crim e, j

inclu des

is

the

is^

V

in d iv id u a l).

g

^
i s a portm anteau which

th e d i s c r e p a n c y betw een th e a c t u a l and p la n n ed tim e s p e n t

in c r im in a l b e h a v io r .

^ s0- P

i^*°- ^ < °

* 0'

The e x p e c t e d p u n i s h m e n t ,
d e p e n d i n g upon t h e

in d iv id u a l.

•

(2,2)

(T^) , i s n o t f i x e d b u t v a r i e s
The s e n t e n c e g i v e n t o a b l a c k , u n ­

e m p l o y e d t e e n a g e r w o u l d n o t be t h e s a m e , c e t e r i s

p arib u s. as

g iv e n to a w h i t e , em ployed, m id d le -a g e d f a t h e r .

T h e r e f o r e when a n

in d iv id u a l c a lc u la te s h is u t i l i t y
by o b s e r v i n g t h e s e n t e n c e s g i v e n
ch a ra cteristics

2 .3

that

f u n c t i o n he e s t i m a t e s
t o o t h e r s w i t h t h e same d e m o g r a p h i c

he h a s .

CRIME AND EDUCATION
E h r l i c h p o s t u l a t e s a s t r o n g and p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p betw een

la w fu l and u n la w fu l s k i l l s .
crim es

(robb ery, b u rg la r y ,

2

He l i s t s

in i l l e g a

1

o f crim es:

l a r c e n y , and a u t o t h e f t )

s k i l l a n d / o r e d u c a t i o n ; Type I I c r i m e s
trade

two s e t s

(fraud,

m e r c h a n d i s e , and i l l e g a l

req u ire

Type I
little

f o r g e r y , em bezzlem ent,

com m ercial p r a c t i c e s )

re­

q u i r e more s k i l l a n d / o r e d u c a t i o n an d a r e c o m p l e m e n t a r y t o l a w f u l
market a c t i v i t i e s .

By c o m b i n i n g t h i s

h is model E h r lic h g e n e r a te s

h y p o t h e s i s and t h e r e s u l t s

the fo llo w in g h y p o th e ses:

of

9

(1)

Gr oup s w i t h l o w l e v e l s

o f s c h o o lin g or t r a in i n g have a

h i g h e r p r o p e n s i t y t o e n g a g e i n Type I c r i m e s .

Groups w i t h h i g h e r

e d u c a t i o n a l a c h ie v e m e n t and h i g h e r incom es have a g r e a t e r p r o p e n s i t y
f o r Type IX c r i m e s .
(2)

G r o u p s w h i c h com mi t Type I c r i m e s e n t e r c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y

a t a younger age because la c k o f t r a in in g does not l i m i t en try
such c r im e s.

The a g e o f e n t r y

i n t o Type I I c r i m e s w i l l be h i g h e r .

" in f a c t ,

because high er s k i l l e d

on-the-job

t r a i n i n g du rin g the

entry into r e la te d

in to

o c c u p a t i o n s may i n v o l v e

in itia l

in ten sive

p e r io d o f the w orking c a r e e r ,

i l l e g i t i m a t e a c t i v i t y may l a g s om ew h at b e h i n d
3

t h e i r e n tr y in t o th e la b o r m arket."
(3)

"A g e n e r a l

im p lication of th is a n a ly s is

concerns the

ed u ca tio n a l attain m en t of o ffen d ers b elon gin g to d if f e r e n t r a c i a l
groups.

To t h e e x t e n d t h a t o c c u p a t i o n a l a n d w a g e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n

a g a i n s t nonw hite workers

is greater

ille g itim a te a c t iv it ie s , a c r it ic a l
which i s s u f f i c i e n t

in l e g i t i m a t e

'wage d i f f e r e n t i a l '

t o induce a l l w orkers

e n t e r an i l l e g i t i m a t e a c t i v i t y

(i),

rela tiv e

to

(W^ - W^)

of equal preferen ces

w o u l d be a s s o c i a t e d

in th e

c a se o f nonw hites w ith a r e l a t i v e l y h igh e d u c a tio n a l a tta in m e n t
the worker.
attainm ent

C o n s e q u e n t l y , one e x p e c t s
of nonw hite o f f e n d e r s

illeg itim a te a c tiv itie s ."
2 .4

of

the average e d u c a tio n a l

to exceed that

of w hites

i n many

4

RECIDIVISM
A person r e le a s e d

he

to

from p r i s o n e x p e c t s a

Is c o n v i c t e d o f a s u b s e q u e n t

offen se.

larger

(T^)

If

The p r i s o n e x p e r i e n c e may

have i n c r e a s e d o r d e c r e a s e d th e e x p e c t e d d i s u t i l i t y

o f s p e n d in g tim e

10

in p r i s o n .

The i n d i v i d u a l f a c e s

suffered s k i l l

lo s s e s w h ile

On t h e o t h e r h a n d , w h i l e
type

j o b d i s c r i m i n a t i o n an d may h a v e

in p r i s o n , b o th o f w hich red u ce

i n p r i s o n he may h a v e p a r t i c i p a t e d

of tr a d e t r a i n i n g w hich in c r e a s e d

sentences

is

therefore

increase

i n some

(T^) , o r he may h a v e

a c q u ir e d c r i m i n a l s k i l l s w hich in c r e a s e d
It

(T^) .

(T ^ ).

im p o s s ib le t o t e l l a p r l o r i whether p r iso n

o r d e c r e a s e t h e p r o p e n s i t y f o r c r i m i n a l behaviot*'.

The o p t i m a l m i x o f c r i m i n a l a n d n o n c r i m i n a l l a b o r f o r t h o s e p e r s o n s
who h a v e a l r e a d y b e e n c o n v i c t e d a n d p u n i s h e d f o r c r i m e s d e p e n d s on
t h e same f a c t o r s a s
t h e wage f o r

fo r th o s e p erson s n ev er c o n v ic te d o f a crim e:

law fu l a c t i v i t i e s ,

the ex p ected s e n te n c e ,

t h e wage f o r u n l a w f u l a c t i v i t i e s ,

t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f c o n v i c t i o n , and a t t i t u d e

towards r i s k .
The n e x t c h a p t e r m e a s u r e s
recid iv ism
ever,

for variou s

the

im p a c t o f p r i s o n

types o f o ffen d e rs.

th at because prison sen ten ces
to recid ivism

sentence w ith resp ect

t o crim e r e d u c t i o n .

2 .5

S e c t i o n 2 . 6 s h o w s , how­

can d e t e r o t h e r s ,

sentence w ith resp ect

t i m e on

the o p tim a l

i s not n e c e s s a r i l y th e optim al

THE SOCIAL VIEW OF CRIME
The p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n

ip a tio n
responds

in c r im e .

p r e s e n t s a model o f

in d ivid u al p a r t ic ­

T h i s s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s a m o d e l o f how s o c i e t y

to t h i s c r im in a l b eh a v io r .

A ssu m e a s o c i e t y o f

Q

in ­

d i v i d u a l s a l l o f whom h a v e i n t e r r e l a t e d u t i l i t y

fu n ction s

a fo r m t h a t t h e a c t i o n s

th e o p tio n s and th e

u tility

o f on e p e r s o n i n f l u e n c e

o f other p e r so n s.

o f an i n d i v i d u a l

of such

C r im in a l a c t i v i t y can red uce th e u t i l i t y

In o n e o f t h r e e w a y s :

(1)

d irectly

if

the

in d ivid u al

11

is

the c r im e 's v i c t i m ,

by th e c r i m e ,

(3)

(2 ) in d irectly

in d irectly

e tc .)

is

i s some p e r s o n o r p e r s o n s

i s n o t and d o e s n o t
In t h i s

( K i n g , C o n g r e s s , an d c o u r t s ,

in to a s o c ia l w elfare fu n ctio n .

t o sum t h e s e

in d ivid u al

T his s o c i a l w e lfa r e

u tility

in th e s o c i a l w e l f a r e

These a c t i o n s a r e d e fin e d a s crim es

type t h a t
w illin g

the p e r s o n (s )

to a llo c a te

perpetrators.
crim e.

T his

in o r d e r

Q

some i n d i v i d u a l s ' u t i l i t i e s
w elfare

f u n c t i o n may i n c l u d e

fu n ction

a norm ative d e f i n i t i o n

com p letely.

I t can ig n o r e

In t h e l i m i t ,

the s o c i a l

o n ly th e p r e fe r e n c e s o f the d i c t a t o r .

does n o t assume t h a t c rim es a r e e v i l or

so cia lly

In a d d i t i o n , th er e

i s n o d i s t i n c t i o n made

b e t w e e n c r i m e s w h i c h do o r do n o t h a v e " v i c t i m s " .

I f no o ne

suffered d is u t ilit y

from an a c t i o n ,

--

be i l l e g a l .

between c o n s e n tin g

it

Sodomy

of

in d iv id u a l w e lfa r e fu n c tio n s need

T herefore t h is a n a ly s is
unacceptab le.

is

t o d i s c o v e r and p u n i s h t h e i r

i s "a p o s i t i v e , n o t
the

func­

they are o f such a

in c o n t r o l of the s o c i a l w e lfa r e

resources

The c o m b i n i n g o f

if

n ot g iv e equal w eigh t t o each p e r s o n 's p r e f e r e n c e s .

but

func­

o f s u c h a fo r m t h a t some a c t i o n s , w h i c h g i v e c e r t a i n p e r s o n s

p o s i t i v e u t i l i t y , have a n e g a tiv e
tio n .

frigh ten ed

d i s g u s t e d by t h e c r i m i n a l a c t .

h a v i n g t h e power a n d / o r r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

fu n ction s
tion

in d ivid u al is

i f the in d iv id u a l

ex p ect to be a v i c t i m , but i s
s o c ie ty there

i f the

it

would n o t

a d u l t s may h a v e no v i c t i m

i t may s o d i s g u s t t h o s e who c a l c u l a t e t h e w e l f a r e
i s made a n u n l a w f u l a c t i v i t y .

in t h i s model - -

S im ila rly ,

harm o n l y t h e a d d i c t d i r e c t l y , b u t t h e f a c t

fu n ction that

d r u g a d d i c t i o n may
that a d d ic ts

often b e ­

come w a r d s o f t h e s t a t e a n d t h e r e f o r e a f i n a n c i a l d r a i n on s o c i e t y
may be s u f f i c i e n t r e a s o n t o make d r u g u s e

illeg a l.

O bviously, there

a r e many o t h e r way s o f d i s c o u r a g i n g u n d e s i r a b l e b e h a v i o r s u c h a s

12

taxes,

licen sin g , e t c .,

but c rim in a l

s a n c t i o n s a r e t h e moat

common.
Equation 2 .3

i s an i m p l i c i t

fu n c tio n o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p

b e t w e e n t h e number o f c r i m e s , C ^ t t h e v a r i o u s

punishm ents o f

crim in als, X ^ ,

th e v a r i o u s methods o f r e f o r m in g c r i m i n a l s , X ^ •

and t h e v a r i o u s

techniq ues

su b scrip t

for catch in g c r im in a ls , X ^ -

r e p r e s e n t s tim e and t h e r e a r e

Ht (Xt , l ’ Xt + l , l

Ct »

is

i n c r e a s e d by

In o t h e r w o r d s , e v e n i f

no e f f e c t on c r i m e ,

tim e p e r i o d s . )

Xt , 2 Xt , 3 * * ’ C t* =

Assume t h a t t h e s o c i a l w e l f a r e
d e c r e a s e d by

M

''society" s t i l l

(The f i r s t

( 2 *3J

0

Xt ^ ,

> X ^ > and

p u n is h i n g c r i m i n a l s has

receives u t i l i t y

from c r i m i n a l s '

su fferin g .
Assume t h a t t h e l o n g - r u n s o c i a l w e l f a r e
for m

shown i n e q u a t i o n 2 . A.

or investm ent g o a d s.

for

Y

put p e r io d

d o lla rs.
t

•••

Cj

( 2 - A)

. . . CM]

a ll

of its

(2 .5 )

ou tp u t o f tim e period

T h e r e f o r e t h e m a r k e t v a l u e ”* o f s o c i e t y ' s

...

Xt N . P t i

...

P ^ .C J

i s th e p r i c e o f th e n th good in th e t t h p e r i o d .

expenditures

out­

is

Y t = G t Qx t l
F

a r e consum ption g o o d s,

XMN- H1 • • • " m!

Assume t h a t s o c i e t y s e l l s
t

X 's

i s o f the

E q u a t i o n 2 . 4 c an b e r e w r i t t e n a s 2 . 5 .

U ' CX14
U

The v a r i o u s

function

in th e t t h p e r io d a r e

<2 -«>
Assume t h a t

T h e re fo r e , the long-run s o c i a l w e lfa r e

i s m a x i m i z e d by f i n d i n g t h e

sad d le point o f
M
A

D

= UCXf cl

is

...

Cc ]

-

E P ti

thev a lu e used to d is c o u n t p r ic e s
For consumer goods

do n o t
h old ,

N _

XCS <Yfc -

in flu en ce
i.e.,

output

\

X
tn

in creases or
For

( 2 -8)

to tim e period

(good s whose consum ption

in f u t u r e

periods)

1

,

in one p e r i o d

the u su a l c o n d it io n s

t h e y a r e co ns um ed u n t i l t h e r a t i o o f m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y

to discounted p r ice

More o f

x t i ) Dt ]

is

= ' ( 3 U / a X t N >/ 5 tN Dt
co ns um ed i f e i t h e r

P..
tn
xt

2

is equal to

<2 - 9 >
the m arginal u t i l i t y o f
J

X

tn

fa lls.

»

^ t 3 ’ h o w e v e r , t ^te f i r s t

more c o m p l i c a t e d .

E q u a t io n 2 . 1 0 shows

X “ ( I + J ) / ( K + L)

the c a s e

order co n d ition s are
of punishm ent. ^

(2.10)

Where

i

-

a u / a x fc l

(2.U )

M

J -

s C ( a u / a c fi) ( a c / a x
)i
0-t
e
0
ti

(2.12)

14
In t h e n u m e r a t o r , I
w elfare fu nction rec e iv es

is

the m arginal u t i l i t y

the s o c i a l

from " c on s um in g p u n i s h m e n t " ,

k n ow in g t h a t c r i m i n a l s s u f f e r ; J

is

i.e.,

the m arginal u t i l i t y

from

so ciety

r e c e i v e s fr om t h e c h a n g e i n c r i m e i n t h i s and in f u t u r e p e r i o d s
c a u s e d by a c h a n g e i n p u n is h m e n t i n t h i s p e r i o d .
I n th e d e n o m i n a t o r , L

is

th e d is c o u n te d m arginal product

o f p u n is h m e n t i n p r e s e n t a n d f u t u r e p e r i o d s ; t h i s
im p ac t o f p u n is h m e n t on o u t p u t a s w e l l a s

is both the d ir e c t

the i n d ir e c t

(through

c h a n g i n g t h e l e v e l o f c r i m e and t h e r e f o r e t h e s u p p l y o f n o n crim in a l labor)

im p a c t on o u t p u t .

K

is

t h e d i s c o u n t e d p r i c e of

punishm ent.
The r a t i o

(\)

is

p o s i t i v e but th e s ig n s o f the f i r s t

c o m p o n en ts o f t h e r a t i o c a n be p o s i t i v e o r n e g a t i v e .

three

The s u f f e r i n g

o f t h e c r i m i n a l s may be s o g r e a t t h a t s o c i e t y t a k e s p i t y an d
fa lls
tion

below z e r o .

But th e in c r e a s e

in u t i l i t y

caused by th e r e d u c ­

in c r i m e may be s t r o n g e n o u g h t o o f f s e t t h e n e g a t i v e

that the s u f f e r i n g c o n t in u e s .
so b ru tal that

it

so

(J < 0 ) , b u t

t h e s o c i e t y may s o e n j o y t h e s u f f e r i n g o f c r i m i n a l s t h a t i t
w i l l i n g t o keep the p r is o n s y ste m .
can b e e i t h e r p o s i t i v e or n e g a t i v e .

do n o t p r o d u c e .

I

C o n v e r s e l y t h e p r i s o n s y s t e m may b e

i n c r e a s e s r a t h e r than r e d u c e s crime

P r i s o n e r s do l i t t l e

I

With r e g a r d t o
In M i c h i g a n i t

is

L,
is n egative.

m e a n i n g f u l l a b o r and a r e g e n e r a l l y c o n s u m e r s who

But i n o t h e r p l a c e s p r i s o n l a b o r i s a t

p rod u ctive as n on -prison la b o r .

l e a s t as

Indeed i f th e purpose o f th e p r is o n

system is

t o w ork t h e p r i s o n e r s t o d e a t h , t h e c o n v i c t s can become
j
&C q
p r o d u c e r s who do n o t c o n s u m e .
-7 ;
i s probably p o s i t i v e b e &CQ *Xt l

c a u s e a r e d u c t i o n i n c r i m e w o u l d c a u s e an i n c r e a s e

in l e g a l

15

a ctiv ities.

B u t i t may b e n e g a t i v e

plement t o c e r t a i n

i f crim inal a c t i v i t y

i s a com­

leg a l a c t iv it i e s .

The r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r summing t h e i n d i v i d u a l w e l f a r e f u n c ­
tion s

i n t o a s o c i a l w e l f a r e f u n c t i o n i s s h a r e d by s e v e r a l i n s t i t u ­

tion s:

the p o l i c e , th e p r o s e c u t o r , th e c o u r t s , e t c .

Together they

form t h e c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e s y s t e m w h i c h i s a c h a i n o f d e c i s i o n mak ing
(see Figure 2 , 1 ) .

Each i n s t i t u t i o n

g iv e s g r ea ter w eight to i t s

own u t i l i t y when i t sums t h e i n d i v i d u a l u t i l i t y
s o c i a l w elfare

fu n ction.

—■ t h e p o l i c e , j u d g e s , an d p r o b a t i o n

o f f i c e r s may s e e t h e same o f f e n d e r s

rather a s e r ie s

2.6

into a

In a d d i t i o n t h e t r a i n i n g and e x p e r i e n c e

o f the v a r io u s groups d i f f e r

T herefore, there

fu nctions

in e n t i r e l y d i f f e r e n t p e r s p e c t i v e .

i s n o t one un iqu e s o c i a l w e l f a r e f u n c t i o n , but
o f s i m i l a r but n ot

id e n t ic a l w elfare fu n c tio n s.

THE JUDICIAL ROLE
T h e r e i s no d e c i s i o n i n t h e c r i m i n a l p r o c e s s t h a t i s a s
c o m p l i c a t e d and d i f f i c u l t a s t h e one made b y t h e s e n ­
t e n c i n g ju d g e . A s e n te n c e p r e s c r ib e s punishm ent, but
i t a l s o s h o u l d be t h e f o u n d a t i o n o f a n a t t e m p t t o r e ­
h a b i l i t a t e the o f f e n d e r , t o in s u r e t h a t he does not
e n d a n g e r t h e c o m m u n it y , and t o d e t e r o t h e r s from
s i m i l a r c r i m e s in t h e f u t u r e .
Often t h e s e o b j e c t i v e s
a r e m u t u a l l y i n c o n s i s t e n t , an d t h e s e n t e n c i n g j u d g e
must c h o o s e one a t t h e e x p e n s e o f t h e o t h e r s .
A man
who has c o m m i t t e d murder i n a moment o f e x t r e m e e m o t i o n
may r e q u i r e n o c o r r e c t i o n a l program and may p r e s e n t no
s i g n i f i c a n t t h r e a t t o the g e n e r a l s a f e t y , but few ju d ges
w ou ld b e l i k e l y t o r e s p o n d t o an o f f e n s e s o h e i n o u s by
s u s p e n d i n g t h e o f f e n d e r ' s s e n t e n c e o r g r a n t i n g him
p arole.
— The C h a l l e n g e o f Cri me In A
Free S o c i e t y . p. 141.
Once a p e r s o n i s c o n v i c t e d

im po se some p e n a l t y .

it

is

the ju d g e 's fu n c tio n to

The j u d g e u s u a l l y c an i m p o s e ,

o r i n some c o m b i n a t i o n , a j a i l

term, a f i n e ,

in d ivid u ally

p ro b a tio n , a prison

16

FIGURE 2 . 1
C rim inal Justice System M odel
(With estim ates o f flow of offenders for Index C rim es In th e U nited States in 1965)

r~

P opulation
Index crim es
co m m itted
2,780,140
U n ap p reh e n d ed
o ffenders
1,953,000
Arrest
by p olice
727,000

I

Juvenile
processing
260,000

Formal
accusation
an d
d eten tio n
177,000

(O th er sources
refer an additional
200,000 juveniles
for processing.)
13,000

D ismissed
9,000

25,000

C

Jury trial
10,000

A cquitted
3,000

N o com plaint filed
o r charge red u ced
290,000

H
Guilty plea
130,000

Bench trial
20.000

A cquitted
5,000

ZD
S entencing
160,000

U nsupervised
se n ten ce
(fine, etc.)
6,000

P robation
56,000
1t
fail
35,000

Probation
violators —P
21,000

Prison
63,000
Release
39,000

j

Release

Parole
45,000

3
S o u t e r .A d ap ted from th e P re sid en t’s C om m ission o n la w E nforcem ent a n d A dm inistration o f lu ilic e . The
Challenge of C rim e in l f r e e S o d t l y (W u h in g to n , O. C.: G o v ern m en t Printing O ffice, 1967), p p. 262*261.

SOURCE: Cr im e and J u s t i c e A m e r i c a n S t y l e , C l a r e n c e S c h r a g , U. S .
Go v e r n m e n t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 7 1 , p 3 .

17

sentence.

The s e n t e n c i n g o p t i o n s o f t h e j u d g e v a r y c o n s i d e r a b l y

betw een s t a t e s .

I n M i c h i g a n t h e maximum s e n t e n c e

is u su a lly fixed
g

by l a w a n d t h e minimum I s a l w a y s s e t b y t h e j u d g e .
sen ten cin g d ecisio n

d e p e n d s upon t h e f o u r e l e m e n t s

I - - The u t i l i t y

fr om k n o w i n g c r i m i n a l s

w i l l r e c e i v e more p l e a s u r e
judge w i l l t h e r e f o r e
t h e more s e r i o u s
offen sive
d islik es

the

The j u d g e ' s
o f equation

suffer.

2

.1

0

.

S ociety

from t h e s u f f e r i n g o f a c r i m i n a l an d t h e

im p o s e a more s e v e r e s e n t e n c e * c e t e r i s

the i n d i v i d u a l ' s

p arib u s,

p r e v i o u s c r i m i n a l r e c o r d , t h e more

i n d i v i d u a l ' s b e h a v i o r i n c o u r t , t h e more t h e j u d g e

th e p a r t i c u l a r crim e th e

in d iv id u a l com m itted,

more s u f f e r i n g g e n e r a l l y c a u s e d by t h i s

i.e .,

the

t y p e o f c r i m e , t h e more

s u f f e r i n g a c t u a l l y ca u sed by th e c r i m i n a l in the a c t o f com m itting
the c rim e.
receiv e

Because o f in t e r r e la t e d u t i l i t y

less u t i l i t y

from t h e c r i m i n a l ' s s u f f e r i n g

s h a r e d by i n n o c e n t p e o p l e .
ceteris
if

fu n ction s
if

society w ill
i t w i l l be

T h e r e f o r e , t h e j u d g e w i l l be more l e n i e n t ,

p a r i b u s . w i t h c o n v i c t s who h a v e d e p e n d e n t s and o r f a m i l i e s

i t appears th a t they w i l l share

in the c o n v i c t ' s s u f f e r i n g .

J u d g e s w i l l b e more l e n i e n t w i t h p e r s o n s who a r e

p h y sica lly d i s ­

a b l e d a n d w o u l d s u f f e r more fr o m i m p r i s o n m e n t .
J - - T his r e f l e c t s
the r e d u c tio n

two d i s t i n c t

effects:

(1)

in c rim es com m itted by th e c o n v i c t ,

recid ivism ,

(2 ) d e te r re n c e,

t h e r e d u c t i o n i n c r i m e s o f o t h e r s who w i l l b e d e t e r r e d b y t h e c o n ­
v ict's

punishm ent.

(1)

The j u d g e w i l l b e more l e n i e n t

committed t o c r i m i n a l b e h a v io r th e i n d i v i d u a l I s ,
a l o w l e v e l o f commitment t o c r i m e , l o n g p e r i o d s
in c r e a s e the p r o p e n sity fo r c r im in a l b eh a v io r .
t e n c e w i l l b e more s e v e r e ,

ceteris

the l e s s

For persons w ith
o f p r i s o n t i m e may

T h e r e fo r e , the s e n ­

p a r ib u s . the lo n g e r th e

in d ivid u al

18

has engaged in c r im e , th e worse the c r im in a l r e c o r d , th e few er n o n ­
c r i m i n a l job s k i l l s and th e w o r se t h e work r e c o r d o f th e c r i m i n a l .
(2)

When t h e j u d g e c o n s i d e r s

the d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t o f a s e n te n c e

he i s co n cern ed p r im a r ily w i t h t h o s e

i n d i v i d u a l s who h a v e demo­

grap h ic backgrounds s i m i l a r t o th e c o n v i c t ' s .
more s e v e r e ,

ceteris

The s e n t e n c e w i l l be

p a r i b u s , t h e more r i s k a v e r s e t h e g r o u p ,

i.e .,

t h e more o f a d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t a l o n g s e n t e n c e h a s , t h e h i g h e r t h e
p r o p e n s i t y o f t h e g r o u p t o com mit t h e p a r t i c u l a r c r i m e t h e i n d i v i d u a l
was c o n v i c t e d f o r ,
w ith each o th e r .
pendents,

t h e s t r o n g e r t h e members o f t h e g r o u p i d e n t i f y
T h e re fo r e , the sen te n c e given to persons w ith d e ­

j o b s , w o r k B k i l l s , e t c . , may b e l o n g e r i f t h e s e c h a r ­

a c t e r i s t i c s make p e o p l e more r i s k a v e r s e .
in flu en ce

is b elieved

A ls o , because p aren tal

t o be a major d e te r m in a n t o f c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r ,

th e d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t o f s e n t e n c i n g f a t h e r s ,

plus the r e d u c tio n o f

t h e f a t h e r ' s c o r r u p t i n g i n f l u e n c e may c a u s e t h e s e n t e n c e s o f p e r s o n s
w i t h f a m i l i e s o r d e p e n d e n t s t o be l o n g e r .
Assume f o r a moment t h a t t h e s o c i e t y
m inim izing crim e,
from p r i s o n .
f^

is

and

Cj

are th e crim es o f o th e r s

Cj = K ( f ^ ) -

ignored

ex clu siv ely .

i.

in

Then, c e t e r i s

i's

The v a s t m a j o r i t y o f w r i t e r s

(i)

dem ographic grou p ,
= H (f^)

, or
in c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e

and been c o n c e r n e d w i t h r e c i d i v i s m or

But th e o p tim a l s e n t e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t t o

C^.

is

n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e same a s t h e o p t i m a l s e n t e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t
C

^

+ C .
J

to

There i s no problem i f th e o p t im a l s e n t e n c e w i t h r e s p e c t

to r e c id iv is m

i s g r e a t e r than th e o p t i m a l s e n t e n c e

in

a fte r relea se

p arib u s,

S o c i e t y wants t o m inim ize

K(f^)
9

interested s o le ly

the crim es o f a person

the sen te n c e g iv en to

H (f^) + K ( f ) .
have

are

is

in terms o f

19

deterrence

(except

in t h o s e c a s e s w here an i n c r e a s e

sen ten ce reduced d e te r r e n c e )

But f o r t h o s e c a s e s where th e

optim al sen te n c e w ith r e s p e c t
optim al w ith r esp e c t
If

to d eterren ce

to r e c id iv is m the

is

t o keep c o n v i c t s

recid ivism

is g r e a tly

in p r is o n f o r v e r y

in creased .

g r e a t e r than th e

p r o b l e m i s more d i f f i c u l t .

lo n g s e n t e n c e s have a g r e a t d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t

in terest

in e x p e c t e d

i t may be i n s o c i e t y ' s

long p erio d s even i f

On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e d e t e r r e n t

i m p a c t o f p r i s o n s e n t e n c e s may b e s o s m a l l t h a t s o c i e t y ca n s a f e l y
ignore

I t an d c o n c e r n i t s e l f s o l e l y w i t h r e c i d i v i s m .

In any c a se

p r o p e r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g r e q u i r e s some k n o w l e d g e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p
betw een s e n t e n c i n g and r e c i d i v i s m .
survey o f the d e te r re n t e f f e c t
h
sign

i n b r a c k e t s b e h i n d t h e Bumn ntion

in th e denom inator o f e q u a tio n 2 . 1 0 .
is

o f two p a r t s :

i n d i v i d u a l ' s b e i n g in p r i s o n ,

a red u ction

f o r an e x t e n s i v e

o f punishm ent.

c o n s i s t s o f t h e two p a r t s

c a u sed by im prisonm ent
the

See T u llo c k ^

(2)

The c h a n g e
( 1 ) The l o s s

the

loss

in o u tp u t
o r g a i n fr o m

or g a in because o f

i n c r i m e s o f o t h e r s who a r e d e t e r r e d b y t h e c r i m i n a l ’s

punishm ent.
The f i r s t
but

it

is

p a r t c an h a v e e i t h e r a p o s i t i v e

probably n e g a t i v e .

It

is

the

lo ss

or n e g a tiv e s i g n ,

in p r o d u c t i o n c a u s e d

b e c a u s e p r i s o n e r s a r e n o n p r o d u c t i v e an d b e c a u s e t i m e i n p r i s o n
pro b a b ly r e d u c e s work s k i l l s .
loss;
the

S o c i e t y would l i k e

t o m inim ize t h i s

t h e r e f o r e , t h e s e n t e n c e w i l l b e more s e v e r e , c e t e r i s

less

sk illed

o r the l e s s

The s e c o n d p a r t

is

the change

change in th e l e v e l o f c r im e .
su b stitu tio n of

p rodu ctive

the

p arib u s,

in d ivid u al.

i n p r o d u c t i o n c a u s e d by a

A r e d u c t i o n in crim e would c a u se a

l e i s u r e and n o n - c r i m i n a l l a b o r f o r c r i m i n a l l a b o r .

20

I t would a l s o c a u s e a s u b s t i t u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s
e tc .)

(such a s

p o lice,

away from c r i m e p r e v e n t i o n t o w a r d s o t h e r t y p e s o f p r o d u c t i o n .
K -- P

11

T his i s

o f two p a r t s .

c o s t s o f running a p riso n

i s t h e sum o f t h e d i r e c t

(guards' pay, e t c . )

o f s u p p o r t i n g on w e l f a r e , e t c . ,

plus

the i n d i r e c t c o s t

the f a m i l i e s o f th e p r is o n e r s .

c a u se s o c i e t y wants t o m in im ize
ceteris

It

P

Be­

, t h e j u d g e w i l l b e more l e n i e n t ,

p a r ib u s, w ith those in d iv id u a ls w ith fa m ilie s
In c o n c l u s i o n t h e a b o v e m o d e l p r e d i c t s

th at,

or dependents.
ceteris

p arib u s,

j u d g e s a r e more l e n i e n t w i t h p e r s o n s who a r e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d , h a v e
b e t t e r work h a b i t s , a r e p h y s i c a l l y d i s a b l e d , a r e m a r r i e d , and have
s h o r t e r and l e s s

ser io u s crim inal h i s t o r i e s .

about the e f f e c t

of several v ariab les:

The m o d e l i s a m b i g u o u s

(1 ) Age;

(2) O ccupation:

p e r s o n s who h a v e o c c u p a t i o n s o t h e r t h a n p r o f e s s i o n a l c r i m i n a l b u t
s t i l l e n g a g e i n c r i m e may d i s g u s t
more o r l e s s

risk averse

t h e j u d g e more o r l e s s , an d may be

t h a n p e r s o n s who h a v e n o o t h e r o c c u p a t i o n ;

( 3 ) Number o f d e p e n d e n t s :

p e r s o n s w i t h f a m i l i e s may r e c e i v e s h o r t e r

s e n t e n c e s b e c a u s e t h e i r punishm ent i s
receive

longer s e n te n c e s

if

p e r s o n s w i t h f a m i l i e s a r e more r i s k

a v e r s e and i f j u d g e s b e l i e v e
f l u e n c e on t h e i r c h i l d r e n ;

s h a r e d b y o t h e r s , b u t t h e y may

t h a t c r i m i n a l f a t h e r s a r e a bad i n ­

(A) D r u g a d d i c t i o n :

e v o k e p i t y o r c o n t e m p t fr o m j u d g e s , a d d i c t s a r e
a r e p r o b a b l y mor e h a r d e n e d c r i m i n a l s ;
Appendix B c o n t a in s q u o t a t i o n s

drug a d d i c t s m ight
less

(5) R u r a l-U r b a n .
fro m t h e l i t e r a t u r e o n s e n ­

t e n c i n g w hich a r e n o n q u a n t I t a t i v e su p p o rt f o r t h i s

2 .7

r is k averse but

s e n te n c in g m odel.

JUDICIAL DISCRIMINATION
The s e n t e n c i n g m o d e l o f t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n g e n e r a t e s

t e s t a b le hypotheses about p o s s ib le j u d i c i a l d isc r im in a tio n

in

three

21

sen ten cin g:

in o r d e r t o a c h i e v e h i s

p e r c e p tio n o f the o p tim a l s e n ­

t e n c e a j u d g e may d i s c r i m i n a t e a g a i n s t p e r s o n s who h a v e p l e a b a r ­
g a i n e d , a g a i n s t p e r s o n s who i n s i s t
again st

on h a v i n g t h e i r

cases

tried ,

p e r s o n s who a r e n o t w h i t e .

2 .7 .1
Fo r a v a r i e t y o f r e a s o n s p r o s e c u t o r s many t i m e s c h a r g e a
p e r s o n w i t h a l e s s e r o f f e n s e t h a n t h e one a c t u a l l y c o m m i t t e d .
th ese reduced charges are the r e s u l t o f
th e d e fe n d a n t and th e p r o s e c u t o r .
l e s s e r charge has no e f f e c t
by th e j u d g e .
most o f f e n s e s

It
is

Often

"plea b a r g a in in g " between

In M ichigan a b a r g a in

for a

on t h e minimum s e n t e n c e , w h i c h i s

set

d o e s u s u a l l y d e t e r m i n e t h e maximum w h i c h f o r
f i x e d by s t a t u t e .

B e c a u s e t h e j u d g e knows b o t h

t h e r e a l a n d t h e b a r g a i n e d o f f e n s e , when d e t e r m i n i n g t h e o p t i m a l
s e n t e n c e he may a t t e m p t t o o f f s e t a n y g a i n made by t h e d e f e n d a n t b y
s e n t e n c i n g f o r t h e more s e r i o u s

offen se.

l e s s e r o f f e n s e s may o n l y b e n e f i t
le sse r offense

is

less

the

T h e r e fo r e , bargains

con vict

if

for

t h e maximum o f t h e

t h a n t h e minimum t h e j u d g e w o u l d h a v e g i v e n

fo r the g r e a t e r o f f e n s e .

The a v a i l a b l e d a t a

inclu de

only the o f f e n s e

c o n v i c t e d f o r , w h i c h may n o t be t h e o f f e n s e a c t u a l l y c o m m i t t e d .
H o w e v e r , t h e d a t a do d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n s u b s t a n t i v e
and a tt e m p te d c rim es

(i.e .,

attem pted arson ; e t c . ) .

robbery, attem pted robbery; a r so n ,

The maximum p e n a l t y f o r an a t t e m p t

y e a r s o r o n e h a l f t h e maximum, w h i c h e v e r i s
person t o be c o n v ic t e d
crim e.

C on viction s

(com pleted)

less.

It is

is

rare fo r a

f o r a n a t t e m p t when t h a t was i n d e e d t h e a c t u a l

fo r a ttem p ts are alm o st alw ays th e r e s u l t

b a r g a i n down fr om a c o m p l e t e d c r i m e .
to measure th e e f f e c t

fiv e

o f b argains

U n fortu n ately,

it

is

of a

im p ossib le

to l e s s e r s u b s t a n t iv e c r im e s ,

i.e .,

22

a b a r g a i n from r o b b e r y t o l a r c e n y from a p e r s o n .
F i g u r e 2 . 2 s h o w s an e x a m p l e o f a n i n d i v i d u a l who t h e j u d g e
w o u l d s e n t e n c e t o a minimum o f o n e y e a r f o r t h e c r i m e o f L a r c e n y
From A P e r s o n .
fore

The maximum f o r t h i s

the ju dge e x p e c t s th e

is

is

ten y e a r s .

There­

i n d i v i d u a l t o s e r v e betw een one and te n

y e a r s w i t h th e a c t u a l tim e
The h o r i z o n t a l a x i s

sentence

i n p r i s o n d e t e r m i n e d by t h e

tim e

parole board.

in p r i s o n , th e v e r t i c a l a x i s measures

t h e p r o b a b i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h t i m e a s p e r c e i v e d by t h e j u d g e .
The e x p e c t e d t i m e

in p r i s o n , E ( T ) ,

is

four y e a r s .

If

th is

p e r s o n b a r g a i n s t o A t t e m p t e d L a r c e n y From A P e r s o n t h e maximum i s
reduced to f i v e y e a r s which in turn red u ces
In o r d e r t o

in crease

E(T)

E(T ),

Figure 2 . 3 .

t h e ju d g e must i n c r e a s e t h e

minimum s e n t e n c e , F i g u r e 2 . 4 .
The n e t r e s u l t
The e f f e c t u p on
not

th e judge

E(T)

is

(1) a low er v a r i a n c e ,

is

un kno wn .

( 2 ) a h i g h e r minimum.

I t d e p e n d s upon ( 1 ) w h e t h e r o r

"charges" th e d efend en t fo r the r ed u c tio n

by i n c r e a s i n g t h e minimum b e y o n d t h e p o i n t w h e r e
for both

E(T)

in v a r ia n c e
is

t h e same

t h e s u b s t a n t i v e an d a t t e m p t e d c r i m e s , ( 2 ) t h e a b i l i t y

of

the ju d g e t o

e s tim a te p rop erly the p r o b a b ilit y a s s o c ia t e d w ith

each

T.

E(T)

in

Even

if

crim in al

tria ls

is

in c r e a se d , to the e x te n t that defend en ts

are r is k a v e r s e , bargain in g is r a tio n a l beh avior.

2 .7.2
T a b l e 2 . 1 was
D i s t r i c t C ourts 1 9 7 0 .

t a k e n fr o m F e d e r a l O f f e n d e r s
It

in U n ite d S t a t e s

sh o w s t h e a v e r a g e w e i g h t e d s e n t e n c e

p e r s o n s d e p e n d i n g up on how t h e i r

" g u i l t " was d e t e r m i n e d .

12

for

In 197 0

a c o n v i c t i o n by a j u r y c a r r i e d a n a v e r a g e s e n t e n c e a l m o s t t h r e e t i m e s
as long as

t h e a v e r a g e s e n t e n c e f o r t h o s e who p l e a d g u i l t y a t

23

PCT
FIGURE 2 . 2

ECT

lo y rs.

yrs.

PCT

FIGURE 2 . 3

ECT

lo

PCT

FIGURE 2 . 4

ECT

lo

24

T able 2 .1

A verage S e n t e n c e W eight
Plea o f g u ilt y at
a r r a ig n m e n t

C onvicted a f t e r
jury t r i a l

I m m ig r a tio n laws

1 .4

4 .4

Federal regu latory
statu tes

1.6

5 .7

Embezzlement

2 .9

6.1

P ostal

4 .5

1 0.7

Forgery

5 .1

10.2

B urglary

7.5

17

Marihuana

4 .6

1 5.7

Narcot ic s

1 0 .3

24 .8

O ffense

fraud

.8

25

arraign m ent.

It

is

im p ossible

t o t e l l e x a c t l y how much o f t h e d i f ­

f e r e n c e was c a u s e d b y f a c t o r s s u c h a s p r e v i o u s r e c o r d , e t c . ,
j u d g e s o b v i o u s l y do c h a r g e f o r c o u r t t i m e .
should

in crea se as the case

The p r i c e o f c o u r t t i m e

load per judge

in creases.

T herefore,

t h e s e n t e n c e d i f f e r e n t i a l s b e t w e e n b a r g a i n i n g an d i n s i s t i n g
t r i a l w i l l be g r e a t e s t

but

on a

i n t h o s e c o u r t s w i t h b a c k l o g s and h e a v y l o a d s .

2 .7 .3
The c r i m i n a l j u s t i c e

s y s t e m has o f t e n been charged w it h

s y s t e m a t i c a l l y d is c r im in a t in g a g a in s t non-w hite p e o p le .

13

No j u d g e

w o u l d p u b l i c l y a d m i t t o s e n t e n c i n g n o n - w h i t e s more h a r s h l y t h a n
w h ites.

But i t

is

p ossib le

t h a t j u d g e s do d i s c r i m i n a t e e i t h e r b e ­

c a u s e t h e y r e c e i v e more p l e a s u r e f r o m t h e s u f f e r i n g o f n o n - w h i t e s o r
because they f e e l th a t the u t i l i t y

fu n c tio n s o f non -w h ites are such

t h a t a s e v e r e s e n t e n c e has a g r e a t e r d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t
given

to a n o n -w h ite .

that,

ceteris

is

2

.8

d ifferen t

The d a t a w i l l b e u s e d t o t e s t

if

it

is

the h y p o t h e s i s

p a r ib u s . the e x p e cted s e n te n c e o f a n on -w hite person
from t h a t o f a w h i t e p e r s o n .

THE MICHIGAN COURTS
A ll

felon y cases o u tsid e

by t h e C i r c u i t C o u r ts
D etro it,

o f the C it y of D e t r o i t a r e handled

shown i n F i g u r e 2 . 5 .

W ithin the C i t y o f

f e l o n g c a s e s a r e handled by th e D e t r o i t R e c o r d e r 's C o u r t.

The R e c o r d e r ' s C o u r t i s

un iqu e in two w ays:

cou rt w ith e f f e c t i v e non -w hite p a r t ic ip a t io n ;
cu rren t judges are b la c k ;

(2 ) i t

is

(1)

it

is

th e only

n in e of the n in e te e n

e x t r e m e l y d e p e n d e n t up on p l e a

b a r g a in in g t o c o n t r o l the flow o f c a s e s .

U ntil recen tly

the R e­

c o r d e r ' s C o u r t was b u r d e n e d w i t h a b a c k l o g w h i c h was o n l y e l i m i n a t e d

26

FIGURE 2 . 5

(0
Ovitftti f«|r«

*-

Our If k»i

Nrtmuifl
C*.l.r.1
• il»

THE MICHIGAN JUDICIAL SYSTEM

Nirtnvl
Gnyl Inf

C OURTS

L O C A TIO N

S u p re m e C o u r t

Lansing
D e tro it * 1 tt D iitric t
L am in g - 2 n d D istrict
G ran d R a p id ) - 3rd D istric t
C o u n tv S eat)
C o u n ty S eat)

C o u rt of A p p eals

tvuAwtA

JU D G E SH IPS

Vs.

Ulr* C-HJ1

7

SmliOi
12

44 C ircu it C o u rt!
S3 P ro b a te C o u n t
R e co rd er! C o u rt
D etroit
R e co rd er) C o u rt (T raffic Si O rd in an ce D ivision)
C o m m o n P lea) C o u rt
D e tro it
D istrict C o u rt)
M unicipal C o u rts

*'<

( l)j ( 2 7 )

j Sl( ftapUl*

.

( ,) I 4 2

Il»F>l

• I*
* M t * t*r
10)

(4)

M£1**

0**w
LEGEND
(T J
(3)
■
(
it
III

(M.

C ircu it N u m tiic
N u m b er C ircu it Judg eships
C o u n ty S eat
1st D iitric t - C o u rt o f A ppeals
2 n d D iitric t * C o u rt o f A p p eal)
3 rd D istrict ■ C o u rt o f A ppeals

CaUVwt
><PmH

„******

I

*w

) (2) -© rM.r)<->«

20

l\»l tfc
wrp<
rvirnil

OFFICE OF THE STATE COURT ADMINISTRATOR
January 1, 1969

Cll'MlHI

SOURCE:

<■>. U y .

f ' ( T \ I ® ) j” I^Jn;

CMtftviti.1 co(it»iirf|; v

y

HiIlut.l-

lv^

y x iiin H 3B J f

Supreme C o u r t o f M i c h i g a n : 1 9 6 8 A n n u a l R e p o r t . p 5 .

27

by m a k i n g C i r c u i t C o u r t j u d g e s f r o m t h e r e s t
judges

14

in th e R e c o r d e r 's C o u r t.
P lea bargain in g i s

in stitu tio n a lized

A ss is ta n t P rosecu tin g A ttorneys s p e c ia l iz e
sp ecia lize

in t r y in g c a s e s ,

etc.

to the point th at c e r ta in

in b argain in g w hile others

The r u l e s and p r o c e d u r e s o f b a r ­

g a i n i n g a r e w ell-k n ow n and s t r i c t l y
g e n e r a t e tw o h y p o t h e s e s :

of the s t a t e v i s i t i n g

follow ed .

(1 ) B e c a u s e o f i t s

These c o n d i t i o n s
d e p e n d e n c e on p l e a

b a r g a i n i n g , t h e minimum s e n t e n c e s f o r a t t e m p t s , c e t e r i s
s h o u l d be l o w e r , a n d t h e minimum s e n t e n c e s
high er,

in D e t r o i t than in th e r e s t

p arib u s.

f o r s u b s t a n t i v e crim es

of the s t a t e .

(2) B ecau se o f

the b lack p a r tic ip a tio n

i n t h e R e c o r d e r ' s C o u r t , minimum s e n t e n c e s

for n o n -w h ites, c e t e r is

p a r i b u s . s h o u l d be l o w e r in D e t r o i t

the r e s t

2 .9

than in

o f the s t a t e .

THE ROLE OF THE PAROLE BOARD
Once a p e r s o n i s s e n t

fu n ction

to prison

it

is

the

parole board's

t o d e c i d e w h e r e , b e t w e e n t h e minimum and t h e maximum, t h e

a c tu a l sentence w i l l f a l l .

L ike the ju d g e 's th e p a ro le b o a rd 's

d e c i s i o n d e p e n d s upon t h e f o u r e l e m e n t s o f e q u a t i o n 2 . 1 0 .
the ju d g e ,
v ict's

t h e p a r o l e b o a r d g i v e s more c o n s i d e r a t i o n

b e h a v i o r i n p r i s o n an d l e s s

court.

The p a r o l e b o a r d ,

effectiv e

lik e

to the c o n ­

con sid eration to h is a ctio n s

in

the D e t r o i t R e c o r d e r 's C o u r t, has

b l a c k p a r t i c i p a t i o n and t h e r e f o r e may a t t e m p t t o o f f s e t

any s e n t e n c i n g d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a g a i n s t n o n - w h it e s .
persons,

U nlik e

id en tica l

ten to tw enty years
the b la c k .

If

i n a l l ways e x c e p t r a c e ,

15

Assume two

receiv e sentences

of

f o r th e w h i t e , and t w e lv e t o tw e n ty y e a r s f o r

the o p tim a l s e n te n c e a c co r d in g t o th e p a r o le b o a r d 's

concep tion o f th e s o c i a l w e lfa r e

fu nction

is

f i f t e e n y e a r s then the

28

p a r o l e b o a r d ca n o f f s e t
persons a t

the c o u r t 's

fifteen years,

i.e .,

d i s c r i m i n a t i o n by r e l e a s i n g both

h o ld in g th e w h ite person in fo r a

l o n g e r t i m e p e r i o d b e y o n d t h e minimum.
sentence

is

I f , how ever, the o p tim al

ten y e a r s , th e p a r o le board cannot o f f s e t

the r a c i a l

d is c r i m in a t io n w ith ou t g iv in g the w h ite person a n o n -o p tim a l s e n ­
tence.

N e v e r t h e l e s s , the p a r o le board w i l l be l e s s

reward p le a b a r g a in i n g , e t c . ,

in clin ed

to

and t o condone d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a g a i n s t

black s .

2 .10

CONCLUSION
T his c h a p te r p r e s e n t s t h e o r i e s

of

(1)

How much a n d w h a t t y p e o f c r i m e s an i n d i v i d u a l w i l l
com m it.

(2)

What f a c t o r s
A.

1

.
.

.
.
3.
A.
1

previous se n te n c e s
previous c o n v ic tio n s
a g e c r i m i n a l c a r e e r began
drug a d d i c t i o n s t a t u s

Demographic Background
•
.
3.
A.
5.
6 .
1
2

D.

th e a c t u a l crim e c o n v i c t e d f o r
the crim e th e i n d i v i d u a l a c t u a l l y

P r e v io u s C r im in a l Record

2

C.

the ju d g e 's s e n t e n c in g d e c i s i o n :

C r im e

2

B.

in flu en ce

age
race
education
number o f d e p e n d e n t s
occupation
work s k i l l s

B e h a v io r in Court
1
2

.
.

amou nt o f t h e j u d g e ' s
" attitu d e"

tim e used

com m itted

29

(3)

How t h e s e n t e n c e i n f l u e n c e s
p e n s ity to retu rn to crim e.

In a d d i t i o n ,

the i n d i v i d u a l ' s p r o ­

the f o l l o w i n g t e s t a b l e h y p o th e ses have been

presented:
(1)

Judges d is c r i m in a t e a g a i n s t
b argain ed .

p e r s o n s who h a v e p l e a

(2)

Judges d is c r im in a t e a g a in s t b la c k s .

(3)

An i n d i v i d u a l ' s c r i m e
an d /or s k i l l l e v e l .

is r ela ted

to h is education

30

F o o t n o t e s C h a p t e r IX
1

Isaac E h r lic h ,

' p a r t i c i p a t i o n In I l l e g i t i m a t e A c t i v i t i e s :

Economic A n a l y s i s "
U n i v e r s i t y , 1970)
2

Isaac E h rlich ,

An

( u n p u b l i s h e d D o c t o r ’s d i s s e r t a t i o n , C o l u m b i a
p. 33.

"On t h e R e l a t i o n s h i p B e t w e e n E d u c a t i o n a n d C r i m e , "

(u n pu blished m a n u s c r ip t ).
3

I b id . , p. 1 3 .

4

I b i d . , p . 13 .

5

Y

6

A

is n o t a production fu n c tio n .
M
N
=

u L x t i

* • *

c t 3

-

t

<Y t

-

E

P

t l

X t l ) D t 3

< 2 *8 >

1

M axim izing

0

= ai

a u _ + a n _ if i_ + aH_252_+

ax u

^x n

^ i

^x n

^ 2

^x n

aY,

^ 3 ^x n
aY

X[(^ i i + *c i sXi i )Dl + (^ i i + ^ 2
^Y3

S olvin g for
7

ac

a^ix^ 2 +

9y 3 ac 3

\

g iv e s eq u ation 2 .1 0 .

A l b e r t S p e e r , I n s i d e The T h i r d Re i c h , (New Y o r k :

M acm illan, 1 9 6 9 ) ,

Chapter 25.
8

For a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f th e s e n t e n c i n g o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e
judges

in v a r i o u s s t a t e s s e e

" S ta tu to r y S t r u c t u r e s For S e n te n c in g

F e l o n s To P r i s o n , " C o l u m b i a Law R e v i e w . V o l .
1960)
9

60, no.

8

(December,

p. 1 1 3 4 -1 1 7 2 .

For a d i s c u s s i o n

to

o f t h e v a r i o u s a r g u m e n t s f o r and a g a i n s t d e ­

t e r r e n c e made b y n o n - e c o n o m i s t s s e e J o h a n n e s A n d e n a e s , "The
G eneral P r e v e n tiv e E f f e c t s o f P unishm ent," U n iv e r s it y o f

31

P e n n s y l v a n i a Law R e v i e w , V o l . 1 1 4 , n o .

7 (May, 1 9 6 6 )

p.

949-983.

J ack son T oby, "Is Punishm ent N e c e s s a r y , " J o u r n a l o f C r im in a l L aw .
C r i m i n o l o g y and P o l i c e S c i e n c e . V o l . 5 5 , n o . 3 (S e p t e m b e r , 1964)
p. 332-337.
A lm ost none o f t h e a r t i c l e s w h ic h e v a l u a t e th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s
new p e n a l m e t h o d s d i s c u s s t h e d e t e r r e n t
grams.

of

i m p a c t o f t h e s e new p r o ­

S e e f o r e x a m p l e Norman J o h n s o n a n d o t h e r s

(ed ito rs),

The S o c i o l o g y o f P u n i s h m e n t a n d C o r r e c t i o n s , ( 2 n d e d i t i o n ) ,
(New Y o r k :
10

W ile y , 1970)

Isaac E h rlich ,

S ection s

I V , V.

' p a r t i c i p a t i o n In I l l e g i t i m a t e A c t i v i t i e s :

A

T h e o r e t i c a l and E m p i r i c a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l
Economy, V o l . 8 1 , n o .
11

Gordon T u l l o c k ,

3 (M ay/June, 1973)

"Does p u n i s h m e n t D e t e r C r i m e ? " The P u b l i c

I n t e r e s t . n o . 3 6 (Summer, 1 9 7 4 )
12

F ed era1 O ffenders
(W ashington:
V II,
12

13

p. 1 5 .

p. 103-111.

In The U n i t e d S t a t e s P i s t r i c t C o u r t s 1 9 7 0

U .S . Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1 9 7 2 ) , E x h i b i t
The w e i g h t i s a s c a l e

o f s e v e r i t y where 1 » (1 to

m o n th s ), 50 = (o v e r 120 m o n th s ), e t c . ,

F o r e x a m p l e s e e A nd rew O v e r b y ,
tion

p. 530.

s e e page 57.

"D iscrim ination

In The A d m i n i s t r a ­

o f J u s t i c e , " The S o c i o l o g y Of P u n i s h m e n t And C o r r e c t i o n s .

S e c o n d E d i t i o n . (Norman J o h n s o n a n d o t h e r s e d i t o r s ) , (New Y o r k :
W iley , 1970)

p. 261-270.

14

Annual R e p o r t :

The R e c o r d e r ' s C o u r t . 1 9 7 2 , p . 1 , 2 .

15

One o f t h e

c u r r e n t members i s b l a c k .

fiv e

CHAPTER I I I

3.1

INTRODUCTION
T l i i s c h a p t e r i s c o n c e r n e d w i t h two d e c i s i o n

crim in al j u s t i c e

system :

d e c i s i o n m aking.

in th e

j u d i c i a l s e n t e n c i n g , and p a r o l e b o a r d

A th ird d e c isio n p o in t,

in the n ex t c h a p t e r .

p oin ts

recid ivism ,

These d e c i s i o n s ar e h ig h l y

is analyzed

in terrela ted .

The c r i m e , CR, a n i n d i v i d u a l c o m m i t s d e p e n d s upon h i s d e m o ­
g r a p h i c b a c k g r o u n d , Z.
S,

The minimum s e n t e n c e

d e p e n d s upon t h e f e l o n ' s

c r i m e , CR.

F in a lly

is

f i x e d by s t a t u e and d e p e n d s upon

i n d i v i d u a l i s c o n v i c t e d o f , CR*.

n e e d n o t e q u a l C R .)
background

d e m o g r a p h i c b a c k g r o u n d , Z, an d t h e

The maximum, Max,

th e crim e th e

imposed by t h e j u d g e ,

( N o t e t h a t CR*

Time i n p r i s o n , T , d e p e n d s upon t h e

in d iv id u a l's

Z , t h e c r i m e s , CR a n d CR*, an d t h e s e n t e n c e , S a n d Max.

the r e le a s e d

felon 's

C , d e p e n d s upon T, CR, a n d Z.

d e c is io n about fu tu re

crim in al a c t i v i t y ,

T his system i s a s e t o f fou r s i m u l ­

taneous eq u a tio n s:
CR

=f

1

(Z)

(3 .1 )

S

= f 2 ( Z , CR, CR*)

(3 .2 )

T

= f 3 (Z , CR, CR*, S , Max)

(3 .3 )

C

= f 4 (T , CR, Z)

(3 .4 )

T his model o f co u rse g r e a t l y
p l e x i t y o f the sy stem .

understates

Among o t h e r t h i n g s

it

th e a c t u a l com­

ig n o r e s the previous

d e c i s i o n s made b y t h e p o l i c e , p r o s e c u t o r , a n d o t h e r s . ^
32

33

3 .2

THE DATA
The d a t a a r e fr o m a t a p e c o n t a i n i n g t h e r e c o r d s o f a l l

released
1972.

persons

from M i c h i g a n P r i s o n s b e t w e e n J a u n a r y , 1 9 6 8 a n d D e c e m b e r ,

The r e c o r d s

ed u cation ,

i n c l u d e nu m e ro u s d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s

occu pation , m a rita l s t a t u s ,

i n d i v i d u a l wa s c o n v i c t e d o f ,
when a n d how t h e

county, e t c . ) ,

t h e minimum

2

the crim e th e

a n d maximum s e n t e n c e s ,

i n d i v i d u a l was r e l e a s e d fr o m p r i s o n , an d when a n d

how t h e i n d i v i d u a l was r e t u r n e d t o p r i s o n
fo r tu n a te ly such d e s ir a b le
was d e t e r m i n e d

(age, race,

( i f he was r e t u r n e d ) .

Un­

i n f o r m a t i o n a s r a c e o f v i c t i m , how g u i l t

( p l e a , bench t r i a l ,

s e n t e n c i n g judge a r e u n a v a i l a b l e .

jury t r i a l )

a n d t h e name o f t h e

The d a t a a r e

fu rther

lim ited

in

t h a t t h e y c o n t a i n e d o n l y t h o s e p e r s o n s who w e r e g i v e n p r i s o n s e n ­
tences.

In a d d i t i o n , b e c a u s e many o f t h e o l d e r r e c o r d s w e r e i n ­

c o m p l e t e o r i n a c c u r a t e and h a v e t o be d i s c a r d e d ,
sen tation

o f p e r s o n s who s e r v e d

A l t h o u g h t h e d a t a do n o t
a g u ilty

long terms

p l e a was t h e r e s u l t

i s alm o st alw ays

of a bargain ,

the r e s u l t

f e n d a n t an d t h e p r o s e c u t o r ,
bargaining is

underrepre­

ten years or m ore).

t h e y do d i s t i n g u i s h b e ­

Because c o n v ic tio n

f o r an

o f a b a rg a in between th e d e ­

t h e y a l l o w some e s t i m a t i o n

o f how p l e a

p e r c e i v e d b y t h e j u d g e and p a r o l e b o a r d .

The m o d e l i s

tested

on f o u r c r i m e c a t e g o r i e s :

B urglary, A u t o - t h e f t , A ssault-M urder.
t h e c r i m e s and t h e i r maximum s e n t e n c e s .

T ables 3 .1
3

an a b b r e v i a t i o n w h i c h h e r e a f t e r r e p r e s e n t s
th eir

is

i n d i c a t e how g u i l t was d e t e r m i n e d o r w h e t h e r

tween a t t e m p t e d and s u b s t a n t i v e c r i m e s .
attem pt

(i.e .,

there

Robbery,

through 3 . 4

list

The l e f t - m o s t co lu mn i s
the crim e.

Because

of

l i m i t e d number, no fe m a le s a r e u se d in any o f th e s a m p le s .

For th e s e r e g r e s s i o n s

the data a re a l l

the u sab le records o f persons

34

TABLE 3 . 1

ROBBERY

Crime
R1
AR1
R2

AR2

R3
AR3
R4

AR4

R5
AR5

Maximum S e n t e n c e

S t a t u t e Number

Armed R o b b e r y

L i fe

750529

A t t e m p t e d Armed R o b b e r y

5 years

750529

A ss a u lt w ith in t e n t to
commit Armed R o b b e r y

L ife

75089

A ttem pted A s s a u lt w ith in t e n t
t o commit Armed R o b b e r y

5 years

75089

Unarmed R o b b e r y

15 y e a r s

750530

A t t e m p t e d Unarmed R o b b e r y

5 years

750530

A s s a u l t w i t h i n t e n t to
commit Unarmed R o b b e r y

15 y e a r s

75088

A ttem pted A s s a u l t w ith in t e n t
t o commit Unarmed R o b b e r y

5 years

75088

L a r c e n y from a P e r s o n

10 y e a r s

750357

A t t e m p t e d L a r c e n y from a
Person

5 years

750357

F o r R1 an d R2 t h e j u d g e s e t s
sentence .

t h e maximum a s w e l l a s minimum

35

TABLE 3 . 2

BURGLARY

Crime
B1

AB1

Maximum S e n t e n c e

B rea k in g and E n te r in g

1 0 years
(unoccupied)
15 y e a r s
(occupied)

S t a t u t e Number
750110

A t t e m p t e d B r e a k i n g an d
E ntering

5 years

750110

E n t e r i n g W ithout B re a k in g

5 years

750111

AB2

A ttem pted E n te r in g w ith o u t
E ntering

2 \ years

750111

AB3

L a r c e n y From a M o b i l e V e h i c l e

5 years

750356A

AB3

A t t e m p t e d L a r c e n y From a

2

L a r c e n y From a B u i l d i n g

4 years

750360

A t t e m p t e d L a r c e n y From a
B u ild in g

2

years

750360

B2

B4
AB4

TABLE 3 . 3
C ri me
Cl

% years

750356 A

AUTO-THEFT
Maximum S e n t e n c e

S t a t u t e Number

Auto T h eft

5 years

750413

AC 1

A ttem p ted Auto T h e ft

2

%years

750413

C2

T akin g Auto W ithout
In ten t to S te a l

2

years

750414

36

TABLE 3 . 4

MURDER-ASSAULT

tfaximura S e n t e n c e

C r im e

S t a t u t e Number

Ml

F i r s t D e g r e e Murder

L ife

750316

M2

S e c o n d D e g r e e Murder

L ife

750317

Attem pted Second Degree
Murder

5 years

750317

A s s a u l t With I n t e n t
Commit Murder

L ife

75083

A tte m p te d A s s a u l t With
I n t e n t t o Commit Murder

5 years

75083

Mans l a u g h t e r

15 y e a r s

750321

A ttem pted M anslaughter

5 years

750321

A s s a u l t W it h I n t e n t L e s s
Than Murder

10

A t t e m p t e d A s s a u l t With
I n t e n t L e s s Than Murder

5 years

75084

F elon ious A ssau lt

4 years

75082

Attem pted F e lo n io u s A s s a u l t

2

years

75082

AM2

M3

AM3

M4
AM4
M5

AM5

M6
AM6

to

F o r M2 and M3 t h e j u d g e s e t s
sen tence.

years

75084

t h e maximum a s w e l l a s minimum

37

r e le a s e d during 1969,
th e crim es

3 .3

listed

*70,

'71 w h o s e l a s t

in T a b l e 3 . 1 t h r o u g h 3 . A.

TECHNIQUE
F or e a c h crim e c a t e g o r y ,

w i t h Minimum S e n t e n c e

S =

N ext,

c o n v i c t i o n was f o r o n e o f

l e a s t s q u a r e s r e g r e s s i o n s a r e run

i n mo n th s a s

+ p 2 MAX +

0

3C +

0 AZ1

the dependent v a r i a b l e .

+

05

Z2 +

. .. e

(3 .5)

f o r e a c h c a t e g o r y , l e a s t s q u a r e s r e g r e s s i o n s a r e r un t o

e s t i m a t e t i m e s e r v e d i n m o n th s a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e

Z ' s , CR, S ,

an d Max.

T = QS + y 1 + y 2 MAX + y 3C +

Because t h i s

is

+

...

e*

(3 .6 )

a tr ia n g u la r r e c u r siv e system i t

can be r e ­

w r itte n as

T = Ql Qx + 02

that

MAX +

0

3C + . . . ] + Vl + y 2 MAX . . . 4- e*

In o r d e r t o u s e t h i s t e c h n i q u e i t i s n e c e s s a r y t o assume
*
E (e^ ,e^ ) “ 0 .
T h e r e i s no a p r i o r i r e a s o n n o t t o e x p e c t t h i s .

I f , h o w e v e r , t h e r e e x i s t s some unknown v a r i a b l e w h i c h i s
by b o t h t h e j u d g e and t h e p a r o l e b o a r d ,
*
E(c^>e^)
still

(3 .7 )

T 0.

I f th is

is the c a s e ,

it

is

p ossib le

the r e s u l t s

considered

that

o f equation 3 .5 are

c o n s i s t e n t ev en though o t h e r t e c h n iq u e s would y i e l d

parameters

w i t h more d e s i r a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s .
The d e f i n i t i o n s

o f the v a r ia b le s are

l i s t e d b elow .

e x p e c t e d s i g n s a s p r e d i c t e d by t h e m o d e l i n C h a p t e r I I a r e
p a ren th eses w ith the ex p ected s ig n o f

@

first.

T heir
in

38

.

+ , )

2.

)

3.

+, )

4.

)

W hite

5.

)

P e r c e n t R ural (p e r c e n t o f th e county the
f e l o n r e s i d e s i n w h i c h was r u r a l i n t h e 1 9 7 0
census)

6.

)

Age ( i n m o n t h s a t

7.

)

Age s q u a r e d

1

8.

D etroit

(1 = D e t r o i t ,

0 = oth erw ise)

D e t r o i t and A t t e m p t (1 - b o t h D e t r o i t and
c o n v i c t i o n o f an a t t e m p t , 0 = o t h e r w i s e )
N o t D e t r o i t an d N o t W h i t e (1 = b o t h n o t
D e t r o i t and n o t W h i t e , 0 = o t h e r w i s e )
(1 — W h i t e , 0 = o t h e r w i s e )

E ducation

sen ten ce date)

(number o f y e a r s

o f education )

Work R e c o r d (1 = u n s t a b l e ,
3 = h ig h ly dependable)

2 = adequate,

9.

-,-)

10.

)

11.

-,-)

12.

-,-)

13.

)

D ependents

14.

)

Drug a d d i c t i o n s t a t u s ( 1 = n o n e , 2 = e x p e r i ­
mented, 3 = o c c a s i o n a l , 4 = s u s t a in e d , 5 =
add icted )

15.

-,-)

16.

+ ,+ )

17 .

(+,-+*)

O c c u p a t i o n (1 = o c c u p a t i o n o t h e r t h a n p r o ­
fe s s io n a l c r im in a l, 0 = oth erw ise)
D isab led
w ise)
M arried

(1 * p h y s i c a l d i s a b i l i t y , 0 = o t h e r ­

(1 = m a r r i e d , 0 - o t h e r w i s e )
(number o f d e p e n d e n t s )

A ge a t f i r s t a t t e n t i o n o f a u t h o r i t i e s (1 = 8 - 1 0
years o ld , 2 = 10-12 years o ld , 3 = 13-14 years
o l d , 4 = 15-16 years o ld , 5 = 17-18 years o ld ,
6 = 1 9 - 2 0 y e a r s , 7 = 21 y e a r s - - o p e n )
T o t a l number o f p r e v i o u s c o n v i c t i o n s
T o t a l tim e in months s e r v e d ( i n j a i l
for a l l p revious c o n v ic tio n s)

or p r is o n

N o t e t h a t w o r k r e c o r d an d d r u g a d d i c t i o n s t a t u s a r e q u a l i t a t i v e
va ria b les.

They a r e n o t c o n v e r t e d i n t o s e r i e s

o f bin ary v a r ia b le s

b e c a u s e t h e number o f s u c h b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s w o u l d be p r o h i b i t i v e .

39

3 .4

RESULTS
T able 3 .5 c o n ta in s th e r e s a l t s

o f t h e d e c i s i o n m ak in g o f

j u d g e s an d t h e p a r o l e b o a r d f o r r o b b e r s .
(S, T ) , are

in m onths.

The f i r s t

The d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s

column l i s t s

the

0

's,

the second

co lu mn t h e

-y's; t - s t a t i s t i c s a r e b e n e a th in

tw o-tailed

t e s t s a r e u s e d d e p e n d i n g upon t h e e x p e c t e d s i g n s a s

above.

S ign ifican ce

t-sta tistics
3 .5 the

0

o b ta in the
0

and add

is

p aren th esis.

d efin ed a t th e ten percent

o f 1 . 2 8 2 and 1 . 6 4 5 r e s p e c t i v e l y .

's

determ ine S ,

total effect
-y^ .

0

is

the

■y's

of v a riab le

determ ine
j

lev el,

As s t a t e d
T.

or
listed

i.e .,
in e q u a t io n

In order to

upon T , m u l t i p l y

the c o e f f i c i e n t o f

One

0

^

tim es

S in the second r e ­

g ression .
In T a b l e 3 . 5 t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d
i n c r e a s e minimum s e n t e n c e :
not w h i t e

D etroit

( 6 . 1 5 2 m o n t h s ) , number o f d e p e n d e n t s

number o f p r e v i o u s c o n v i c t i o n s
for p revious c o n v ic tio n s

t h e a ttem p ted crim es a r e
crim es.

is

S = A ge

sh ip decreases u n t il
creases.

S.

A l l o f the crim es e x c e p t

Note th a t th e c o e f f i c i e n t s

it reaches

of

o f the sub­

D e t r o i t and a tte m p t

(-5 .5 8 3 m onths),

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n minimum s e n ( - . 6 2 1 4 ) + Age

2

(.0007522) .

T his r e l a t i o n ­

i t s minimum a t 3 4 . 5 y e a r s a f t e r w h i c h i t

in ­

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n minimum and maximum s e n t e n c e s

S « Max ( . 2 8 2 8 )
u n til

m o n th s ), t o t a l tim e s e r v e d

The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t an d r e ­

(-3 .3 5 5 m onths).

t e n c e and a g e

.8 6 8

(1.250 m on ths), t o t a l

la r g e r than th e c o e f f i c i e n t s

d u c e t h e minimum s e n t e n c e :
d isab led

(1

(.1 8 8 0 m o n th s).

R3 a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and i n c r e a s e

stan tive

( 7 . 7 5 9 m o n t h s ) , n o t D e t r o i t an d

+ Max
its

2

(-.0 0 0 1 7 8 4 ).

peak a t

66

T his r e l a t i o n s h i p

y e a r s , a f t e r w hich i t

is

is

p ositive

decreases.

40

TABLE 3 . 5

ROBBERS

S a m p le S i z e
867

R Squared
-5476

C onstant

92.31
(10.607)

23.19
(5.102)

7.759
(2.662)

.2319
(-167)

-5 .5 8 3
(-1 .4 9 1 )

-1.491
(-.8 1 1 )

6.152
(1.928)

-.2 8 0 6
(-.1 7 9 )

D etroit

D e t r o i t and A t t e m p t

N o t D e t r o i t and N ot W h i t e

W h it e

R Squared
.8963

1.948
(.9 5 8 )

.06670
(.067)

-.0404
(-.6 4 4 )

-.0 3 6 6 7
(-1 .19 2 )

Mix

.2828
(11.525)

-.07645
(-5.8 9 5)

Max S q u a r e d

-.0001784
(-7 .8 1 5 )

P e r c e n t Rural

Age

Age Squared

-.6 2 1 4
(-21.156)
.0007522
(18.589)

.00007299
(6 .2 9 5 )
-.0 4 0 8
(-2 .29 0 )
.00005763
(2.444)

E ducation

-.2911
(-.5 1 8 )

-.7041
(-2.556)

Work

.9723
(1.304)

-.4361
(-1.191)

Occupat ion

-.5 9 8 7
(-1.483)

3.203
(1.616)

D isab led

-3.355
(-1.804)

-.1 1 2 9
(-.1 2 4 )

.9233
(.6 8 0 )

-1.401
(-1 .4 8 6 )

1.250
(2.155)

.0555
(.194)

Married

N um b er o f D e p e n d e n t s

41

TABLE 3 . 5

S a m p le S i z e
86 7

(C one)

R Squared
.5476

Drug A d d i c t

R Squared
.8963

.5929
(1.197)

-.6 4 9 7
(-2 .672)

.5294
(1.298)

-.0 5 6 8
(-.2 8 4 )

1 .8 6 8

(5.703)

.3340
(2.040)

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.1880
(7.274)

.0718
(5.496)

R1

1 3.13
(2.784)

-1 ,8 8 2
(-.8 1 0 )

R2

11.32
(2.474)

-3 .6 4 8
(-1 .6 20 )

R3

.9062
(.192)

-1 . 7 0 2
(-.7 3 7 )

R5

1 1 .1 9
(2.233)

-2 .7 7 8
(-1 .1 2 7 )

AR1

25.21
(4.095)

-6 .835
(-2 .2 4 2 )

AR2

2 4.39
(3.617)

-5 .765
(-1 .7 3 0 )

AR3

23.31
(3.674)

-6 .9 2 6
(-2 .2 0 8 )

AR4

23.44
(1 . 8 6 7 )

-6.911
( - 1 .1 2 1 )

AR5

20.27
(2.229)

-8 .8 9 5
( - 2 .872)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
the A u th o r itie s

of

T otal P revious C o n viction s

Minimum S e n t e n c e

.9254
(54.629)

42

The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d i n c r e a s e t i m e
in p r i s o n :

minimum s e n t e n c e

co n v ictio n s

(.3 3 4 0 m o n th s), t o t a l tim e ser v e d

v ictio n s

(.0718 m onths).

( . 9 2 5 4 m o n t h s ) , t o t a l number o f p r e v i o u s

The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t

and d e c r e a s e tim e in p r i s o n :

ed u cation

( - 1 . 4 0 1 m o n th s ), drug a d d i c t i o n
AR5 ( - 8 . 8 9 5 m o n t h s ) .
is

(.9 2 5 4 )

Figure

Max 2

((-.0 0 0 1 7 8 4 )

is

-

(.0 4 0 8 ))

+ Age2

is

in p r is o n

((.0007522)

(.9254) +
to that

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n maximum s e n t e n c e
T = Max ( ( . 2 8 2 8 )

(.9 2 5 4 ) + (.0 7 4 5 )) +

( . 9 2 5 4 ) 4* ( . 0 0 0 0 7 2 9 9 ) ) .

rela tio n sh ip r ela tiv e
Table 3 . 6

( - . 6 4 9 7 m o n t h s ) , AR3 ( - 6 . 9 2 6 m o n t h s ) ,

3 .1 shows t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p r e l a t i v e

f o r minimum s e n t e n c e s .
and t i m e i n p r i s o n

( - . 7 0 4 1 m o n th s), m arried

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a g e a n d t i m e

T = A g e ( ( - .6214)

(.0 00 0 5 76 3 )).

for previous co n ­

to that

F i g u r e 3 . 2 shows t h i s

f o r minimum s e n t e n c e .

t h e same m o d e l e x c e p t t h a t t h e i n d i v i d u a l c r i m e s

h a v e b e e n r e p l a c e d w i t h t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n s u b s t a n t i v e and
a ttem p te d crim es such th a t

D1 = R1 - AR1.

e a c h crim e one v a r i a b l e w i t h a v a l u e o f
-1

is

is

th e a t t e m p t e d c r i m e , and 0 o t h e r w i s e .

each d iffe r e n c e
again st

the

is expected

to be n e g a t i v e ,

p e r s o n s who b a r g a i n .

are n egative;
of

1

T his i s

-y's

i.e .,

A l l o f the

do ne by m a k i n g

the s u b s ta n tiv e

4

The
i.e .,

g's

p

a s s o c ia t e d w ith

judges d is c r im in a te

for the d if fe r e n c e s

a t t e m p t s b r i n g l o n g e r minimum s e n t e n c e s .

for the d i f f e r e n c e s are p o s i t i v e .

t e n c e c o n s t a n t , the p a r o le board a tte m p ts

crim e,

A ll

H o l d i n g maximum s e n ­

to o ff s e t

the j u d g e s '

action s .
The f a c t t h a t t h e

0

for D etroit

i s p o s i t i v e and t h e

f o r D e t r o i t an d a t t e m p t i s n e g a t i v e s h o w s t h a t
tim e f o r a d e fe n d en t

0

the p r ic e o f co u rt

(t h e s e n t e n c e d i f f e r e n t i a l between p le a d i n g and

A3

TABLE 3 . 6

ROBBERS

S a m p le S i z e
867

R Squared
.5398

R Squared
.8960

C onstant

108.8
(15.255)

17.72
(4.517)

8 .010
(2.750)

.3 5 6 0
(.250)

-6 .795
(-1.811)

-1.566
(-.856)

N o t D e t r o i t and N o t W h i t e

5.613
(1*757)

-.1808
(-.116)

White

2.085
(1.031)

. 0702
(.071)

P ercen t Rural

-.0509
(-.813)

-.0328
(-1.073)

Max

.2836
(12.051)

-.0704
(-5.672)

Max S q u a r e d

-.0001781
(-8.017)

D etroit

D e t r o i t and A t t e m p t

Age

Age S q u a r e d

- . 6188
(-20.960)
.0007506
(18.439)

.00006833
(6.089)
-.0 4 0 6 2
(-2.290)
.00005728
(2.439)

E ducation

- .3406
(-.604)

-.6910
(-2.514)

Work

.9638
(1 . 288)

-.4713
( - 1 . 2 92)

Occupation

-6.432
(-1.585)

3.275
(1.655)

D isab led

-3.172
(-1.702)

-.1543
(-.170)

1.214
(.630)

-1 .3 9 0
(-1.481)

M arried

N um ber o f D e p e n d e n t s

1.341
(2.302)

.07358
(.259)

44

TABLE 3 . 6

(C on t)

S a m p le S i z e
867

R Squared
.5398

R Squared
.8960

Drug A d d i c t

.5328
(1 . 0 7 4 )

-.6 6 9 6
(-2 .7 69 )

.5565
(1.361)

-.0 4 8 6 9
(-.2 4 4 )

T o ta l P revious C on viction s

1 .8 4 9
(5 .6 4 2 )

.3180
(1.956)

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terras

.1867
(7 . 1 8 0 )

.0721
(5 . 5 2 6 )

D1

-5.957
(-2.571)

2.183
(1.927)

D2

-5 .9 4 6
(-2 .5 3 3 )

.7752
( .676)

D3

-13.09
(-5 .5 8 7 )

2.431
(2.092)

D4

-15.5 6
(-3 .3 7 3 )

4 .0 5 6
(1 .7 9 4 )

D5

-5 .0 6 0
(-2 .2 55 )

2.871
(2.620)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
Author i t ie s

Minimum S e n t e n c e

of

.9252
(55.130)

45

FIGURE 3 . 1

ROBBERY

i_-: =

2oi

-.

Mont h

-IO O

-

= "

^ . “7

K

Age in years
3,0______ 4,0

5,o

t

120-

Min. sentence
Time served
-14o-J

FIGURE 3 . 2

1 2o~\

ROBBERY

lO C H

MONTH

8c h

Min. sen ten ce
6oH

Time served

4oH

2oH

2 'o

4b
6'o
YEARS

8

b

47

trying a case)
The p o s i t i v e

is
p

g r e a t e r in D e t r o i t , as p r e d ic te d by the m odel.
f o r n o t D e t r o i t and n o t w h i t e

i s a l s o p r e d i c t e d by

t h e m o d e l and s h o w s r a c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o u t s i d e o f D e t r o i t .
Table 3 .7 c o n ta in s th e r e s u l t s
The

g's

o f the r e g r e s s io n

for b u rglars.

o f t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and i n c r e a s e t h e

minimum s e n t e n c e :

number o f d e p e n d e n t s , d r u g a d d i c t i o n ,

o f p r e v io u s c o n v i c t i o n s , t o t a l tim e s e r v e d ,

previous

t o t a l number

co n viction s,

an d AB2.

E ducation

The

o f t h e f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and i n c r e a s e

y 's

i s s i g n i f i c a n t a n d r e d u c e s minimum s e n t e n c e .

tim e s e r v e d :

Minimum s e n t e n c e , and t o t a l t i m e s e r v e d f o r p r e v i o u s

con viction s.

The

y's

o f the fo llo w in g v a r ia b le s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t

and d e c r e a s e tim e in p r i s o n :

D e t r o i t and a t t e m p t , p e r c e n t r u r a l ,

p h y s i c a l d i a b i l i t y , B 2 , B 3 , B 4 , A B 1 , a n d AB3.
t w e e n minimum s e n t e n c e and a g e i s

S = Age

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e -

(.7848)

+ Age

2

(.0 0 0 9 1 9 1 ).

U n t i l t h e a g e o f 3 5 . 5 y e a r s an i n c r e a s e i n a g e c a u s e s a r e d u c t i o n
minimum s e n t e n c e , a f t e r
crease

t h a t p o in t an i n c r e a s e

in a g e c a u s e s an i n ­

i n minimum s e n t e n c e , s e e F i g u r e 3 . 3 .
T able 3 ,8

i s b a s e d on t h e same d a t a r e r u n w i t h t h e d i f f e r e n c e s

b e t w e e n s u b s t a n t i v e an d a t t e m p t e d c r i m e s a s v a r i a b l e s .
D3 i s s i g n i f i c a n t .
■y's

in

None o f t h e

f o r D2 a n d D4 a r e c l o s e

y 's

is

sig n ifica n t,

The

0

for

indeed th e

t o b e i n g s i g n i f i c a n t w i t h t h e w r ong

sig n .
T able 3 .9 p r e s e n t s

the r e s u l t s

fo r assau lt-m u rd er.

i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d i n c r e a s e minimum s e n t e n c e :
t i m e s e r v e d f o r p r e v i o u s c o n v i c t i o n s , and M l.

The f o l l o w ­
total

The f o l l o w i n g v a r i ­

a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d d e c r e a s e minimum s e n t e n c e :

w h ite,

ph ysical

d i s a b i l i t y , a g e f i r s t a t t e n t i o n o f t h e a u t h o r i t i e s , M2, M3, M 4 , and

48

TABLE 3 . 7
S a m p le S i z e
751

BURGLARS

R Squared
.6004

R Squared
.9 8 4 9

153.5
(16.859)

1 .1 5 7
(.548)

.4605
(.150)

.1598
(-265)

-3.234
(-1 .2 6 7 )

-1 .1 4 8
(-2 .0 3 4 )

.7446
(.246)

-.6 5 6 2
(-1 .1 04 )

White

-1 .3 7 9
(-.57 9 )

-.1031
( - . 220)

P ercen t Rural

-.0370
(-.8 2 9 )

-.0152
(-1 .7 2 7 )

Max

.4732
(1.643)

( .866)

C onstant

D etroit

D e t r o i t and Attem pt

N ot D e t r o i t and N o t W hite

Max S q u a r e d

Age

- .002434
(-1 .5 9 0 )
-.7 8 4 8
(-31 .7 8 8 )

.04915

-.00 0 1 7 9 6
(-.5 9 6 )
- .005536
(-.7 3 7 )

Age S q u a r e d

.0009191
(29.542)

.00000962
(1.059)

Education

-.8364
(-1 .4 92 )

-.0 4 6 4 6
(-.4 2 1 )

1.984
(2.270)

.3798
(2.20 3)

-5.191
(-1.172)

1.225
(1 .4 0 6 )

D isabled

1 .1 4 5
(.723)

-.4617
(-1 .4 8 4 )

Married

1 .0 5 4
(.600)

-.3 8 6 4
(-1 .1 1 8 )

Work

Occupation

Num ber o f D e p e n d e n t s

2.001
(3 .4 9 3 )

.04828
(-425)

49

TABLE 3 . 7

(C o n t)

S a m p le S i z e
751

R Squared
.6004

D ru g A d d i c t

1.382
(3.395)

.05040
(.625)

o f the

.7877
(2.074)

.02877
(.384)

T o ta l P reviou s C o n v ictio n s

.9859
(4.232)

.04334
(.935)

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.0861
(3.964)

.02180
(5 .0 5 3 )

B1

24.30
( .996)

B2

1.068
(.152)

-2.961
(-2 .1 4 1 )

B3

-.8 8 4 3
(-.1 0 9 )

-2 .8 0 1
(-1 .7 6 1 )

B4

1.067
(.216)

-1 .9 4 3
(-1 .9 9 8 )

AB1

2.480
(.495)

-1.841
(-1 .8 7 1 )

AB2

7.921
(1.703)

-.1 4 3 2
(-.1 5 6 )

Ab 3

3.773
(1.454)

-1 .0 4 9
(-2 .0 5 3 )

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
Au t h o r i t i e s

Minimum S e n t e n c e

R Squared
.9 8 4 9

.239
( . 2 5 9)

1

1.000
(136.932)

50

FIGURE 3 . 3

BURGLARY

M o n th

2,o

—17oJ

Age in years
3,0_________

5,o

51

TABLE 3 . 8
S a m p le S i z e
751

Con sta n t

BURGLARS

R Squared
.5990

R Squared
.9 8 4 9

1 49.3
(15.621)

1.652
(.761)

.4270
(-139)

.1906
(.316)

-3 . 1 9 3
(-1 .1 1 6 )

-1.219
(-2.166)

.5675
( .188)

.6456
(-1 .0 8 9 )

Wh i t e

-1 .373
(.577)

- .1089
(-.23 3 )

P e r ce n t Rural

-.0 3 8 5 5
(-.8 6 7 )

Max

.6096
(2.581)

D etroit

D e t r o i t and A ttem p t

N o t D e t r o i t and N o t W h i t e

Max S q u a r e d

A ge

Age S q u a r e d

Educat ion

Work

Occupat ion

D isab led

M arried

N um b er o f D e p e n d e n t s

-.002673
(-2 .1 4 1 )
-7.8 2 8
(-3 1 .7 5 8 )

-.0 1 5 6 3
(-1 .7 8 7 )
-.002719
(-.05 8 )
.00008549
(-347)
-.005812
(-.7 7 6 )

.0009174
(29.520)

( 1 .112)

-.8 4 5 5
(-1.509)

-.05031
(-.4 5 6 )

.00001007

2.044
(2 .3 5 1 )

.3557
(2.074)

-4 .9 2 8
(-1 .1 1 5 )

1 .223
(1.406)

.9893
(.6 2 7 )

( - 1 . 422)

1.229
(.7 0 1 )

-.4 1 8 6
(-1 .2 1 4 )

1.971
(3 .4 4 7 )

-.4413

.05709
(.504)

52

TABLE 3 . 8

(C ont)

S a m p le S i z e
751

R Squared
.5 9 9 0

Drug A d d i c t

1 .3 6 0
(3.350)

.05154
(.641)

Ag e F i r s t A t t e n t i o n o f
A u th orities

.7708
(2.038)

.02106
(.2 8 2 )

T o ta l P revious C o n viction s

.9871
(4.242)

.04321
(.933)

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.08652
(3.996)

D1

-.1465
(-.0 4 9 )

.4980
(.851)

D2

-4 .0 0 6
(-1.141)

-1.11 3
(-1.612)

D3

-3 .807
(-1 .5 2 2 )

D4

-.8 6 3 3
(-.4 0 5 )

R Squared
.9 8 4 9

.02142
(4.978)

-.02687
(-.0 5 5 )
-.6 0 6 9
(-1 .4 49 )

53

TABLE 3 . 9

ASSAULT-MURDER

S a m p le S i z e
378

R Squared
.8211

R Squared
.8611

C onstant

9.091
(1.707)

25.08
(2.984)

2.230
(.7 0 5 )

2.661
(.535)

D etroit

D e t r o i t and A ttem p t

N o t D e t r o i t and N o t W h i t e

White

P ercen t Rural

Max

Max S q u a r e d

Age

Age S q u a r e d

Education

Work

O ccupation

D isabled

-5.360
(-.9 4 2 )

-.07885
(-.0 0 9 )

2 .603
(.7 4 5 )

2.010
(.366)

-3 .404
(-1 .4 0 6 )

- .216
(-.0 5 7 )

-.001906
(-.0 3 6 )
.4628
(15.027)
-.00 0 3 5 7 7
(-1 3 .1 2 1 )

.002888
(.034)
-.1 8 6 6
(-3 .0 0 2 )
.0003046
(5.815)
.01182
(.5 8 4 )

-.0 3 1 8 9
(-2 .4 9 5 )
.00002952
(1.748)
-.6157

-.00002873
(-1 .0 78 )

( - 1 . 100)

-1.857
(-2 .1 0 7 )

-.8 1 6 8
(-1.016)

2.714
(2.145)

- 1 .7 63
(-.3 9 3 )

8.688
(1

.228)

-4 .106
(-1.883)

1.242
(.360)

M arried

1.592
(.726)

.1628
(.0 4 7 )

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.4673
(.9 0 7 )

-.4073
(-.502)

54

TABLE 3 . 9

(C on t)

S a m p le S i z e
378

R Squared
.8211

Drug A d d i c t

-.07713
(-.0 6 8 )

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n o f t h e
A u th orities

-.7578
(-1 .6 1 3 )

R Squared
.8611
-2.301
(-1.285)
-1 .023
(-1 .3 8 0 )

T o ta l P revious C on viction s

-.0 5 8 2 6
(-.1 4 5 )

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.1118
(3.568)

Ml

75.11
(4.952)

-9 3 .3 3
(-3 .7 8 4 )

M2

-14.58
(-2 .7 33 )

15.13
(1.785)

M3

-2 7 .8 3
(-3 .8 59 )

22.04
(1.904)

M4

-32.65
(-8.078)

12.21
(1.764)

M5

-15.39
(-4.405)

11.91

.3418
(.540)
-.01486
(-.2 9 6 )

( 2 . 111)

AM2

4.287
(.2 7 2 )

2.727
( . 110 )

AM3

3.488
( . 220)

-7.668
(-.3 0 8 )

AM4

4 .5 7 4
(.425)

-1 ,782
(-.10 5 )

AM5

1 .8 3 9
(.293)

-1 .3 8 6
(-.1 4 0 )

AM6

7 .801
(1.486)

-5 .7 2 3
(-.6 9 2 )

Minimum S e n t e n c e

.9626
(11.425)

55

M5.

N o t e t h a t t h e minimum s e n t e n c e s

fo r s u b s t a n t iv e crim es are

s h o r t e r than th o s e f o r a ttem p ted c r im e s .

The f o l l o w i n g

s i g n i f i c a n t and i n c r e a s e

Minimum s e n t e n c e , M2, M3,

M4 a n d M5.
prison :
M l.

The f o l l o w i n g

in p r is o n :

a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and r e d u c e tim e

y's

e d u c a tio n , age a t

- Max

2

(.0 0 0 3 5 7 7 ).

The r e l a t i o n s h i p

peak a t 5 3 .9 y e a rs a f t e r w hich i t

d eclin es.

b e t w e e n t i m e i n p r i s o n a n d maximum s e n t e n c e
(.9626)

( - . 1 8 6 6 ) ) + Max 2

rela tio n sh ip

is

relation sh ip
it

is

is

is

p o sitiv e u n til

The r e l a t i o n s h i p
T = Max ( ( . 4 6 2 8 )

((-.0003577) + (.9 6 2 6 )(.0 0 0 3 0 4 6 )).

+

T his

in c r e a s in g at a d ecreasin g r a te over the e n tir e

r e le v a n t r e g io n , see F igure 3 .4 .
minimum s e n t e n c e

in

f i r s t a t t e n t i o n o f th e a u t h o r i t i e s , and

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n minimum a n d maximum s e n t e n c e s

S = Max ( . 4 6 2 8 )
its

tim e

are

y's

is,

The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a g e and

S = Age ( - . 0 3 1 8 9 ) + Age

is negative u n t il

2

i t s minimum a t

(.00002952).

This

45 y e a r s , a f t e r w h i c h

in c r e a s e s , s e e Figure 3 .5 .
Table 3 .1 0 p r e se n ts th e r e s u l t s

f o r t h e same d a t a w i t h t h e

d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n s u b s t a n t i v e and a t t e m p t e d c r i m e s a s
v a riab les.

There i s no attem p ted f i r s t

id e n tic a l to C l.

Note th a t th e

and s i g n i f i c a n t .

The

y'a

p 's

independent

d e g r e e m u r d e r , s o D1 i s

f o r D 3 , D 4 , a n d D5 a r e n e g a t i v e

f o r D3 a n d D5 a r e p o s i t i v e a n d s i g n i f i c a n t .

Once a g a i n j u d g e s d i s c r i m i n a t e a g a i n s t

p e r s o n s who p l e a d t o a t t e m p t s ,

and t h e p a r o le board a t t e m p t s t o o f f s e t
T able 3 .1 1 p r e s e n t s th e r e s u l t s

th is

d iscrim in ation .

for a u t o - t h e f t .

The f o l l o w i n g

v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and d e c r e a s e t h e minimum s e n t e n c e :
and e d u c a tio n .
a u th o rities

The

y

w hite

a s s o c i a t e d w it h a g e a t f i r s t a t t e n t i o n o f the

i s n e g a t i v e and s i g n i f i c a n t .

Minimum s e n t e n c e a n d t o t a l

tim e s e r v e d f o r p r e v io u s c o n v i c t i o n s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and i n c r e a s e p r is o n

56

FIGURE 3 . 4

13o-

MONTH

llo-

9o-

7o-

M in ,sen ten ce

50-

Time serv ed
3o-

3o

5o
YEARS

7o

I!
57

FIGURE 3 . 5

ASSAULT -MURDER.
Age in years
IjO

3,o

- 5 -i

MONTHS

-

6

-

— Min, sen ten ce
-7 -

-

8

-

-9 J

58

TABLE 3 . 1 0

ASSAULT-MURDER

S a m p le S i z e
378

R Squared
.8139

R Squared
.8601

C ons tan t:

10.20
(1.860)

24.14
(2 .8 3 4 )

D etroit

1.911
(.5 9 9 )

3.072
(.622)

D e t r o i t and A tte m p t

1.571
(.307)

-3.938
(-.4 9 8 )

N o t D e t r o i t an d N o t W h i t e

2 .665
(.754)

2.278
( .416)

-2.822
(-1 .1 5 4 )

- . 5 670
(-.1 5 0 )

W h it e

P e r ce n t Rural

Max

Max S q u a r e d

Age

Age S q u a r e d

E ducation

Work

-.0 1 3 6 7
(-.2 5 5 )
.4079
(15.314)
-.0003139
(-12.823)
-.03187
(-2 .4 6 0 )
.00002767
(1.617)
-.5731
(-1 .0 1 5 )

.01045
(.1 2 6 )
-.1382
(-2.598)
.0002664
(5 . 8 0 9 )
.01091
(.540)
-.00002689
( - 1 . 012)
-1 .9 0 4
(-2.178)

-.7071

2 .650

( - . 868)

( - 2 .102)

-1 .2 5 3
(-.2 7 6 )

8 .183
(1.165)

-4.057
(-1 .8 5 1 )

1.132
(.3 3 2 )

M arried

1.512
(.6 8 4 )

.1138
(.033)

Num ber o f D e p e n d e n t s

.4663
(.8 9 6 )

-.3 7 6 9
(-.46 8 )

Occupat io n

D isab led

59

TABLE 3 . 1 0

(C on t)

S a m p le S i z e
378

R Squared
.8139

Drug A d d i c t

.15 4 8
(.1 3 4 )

-2 .4 0 2
(-1 .3 4 7 )

-.8 1 9 1
(-1 .7 2 2 )

-.9 9 3 5
(-1 .3 4 5 )

T otal P reviou s C on v ictio n s

-.1 2 3 3
(-.3 0 5 )

.3300
(.5 2 8 )

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.1181
(3.74 7)

-.0 1 4 4 0
(-.2 9 0 )

Cl

77 . 2 8
(5 .0 0 5 )

-9 2 .9 8
(-3 .7 6 2 )

D2

-4 .7 9 9
(-1 .0 1 3 )

8 .380
(1.14 3)

D3

-1 6 .9 5
(-2 .6 2 7 )

14.90
(1.47 9)

D4

-2 8 .8 3
(-6 .7 5 2 )

6.715
(1 .111)

D5

-9 .36 4
(-3 .0 8 5 )

7.659
(1 .61 0 )

D6

.1995
(.0 8 7 )

.3 1 6 0
(.0 8 9 )

Age o f F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
A u th orities

Minimum S e n t e n c e

of

R Squared
.8601

.9387
11.388

60

TABLE 3 . 1 1

AUTO-THEFT

S a m p le S i z e
334

R Squared
.2934

R Squared
.7 1 5 7

Constant

23.88
(1.507)

-9.499
(-.8 5 1)

D etroit

-.6465
(-.6 2 6 )

-.4 2 3 4
(-.5 8 4 )

.2690
(.1 9 0 )

1.466
(1.472)

-1 .5 1 2
( - 1 . 22 0 )

1.130
(1.297)

-1.132
(-1.3 58)

.5638
(.962)

D e t r o i t an d A t t e m p t

N o t D e t r o i t and N o t W h i t e

White

P e r c e n t Rural

.004599

( . 266)
Max

Max S q u a r e d

-.3543
(-.4 3 6 )
.005686
(.5 8 8 )

Age

-.007056
(-.34 1 )

Age S q u a r e d

-.00000019
(-.0 0 7 )

Education

-.4154
(-1 .9 2 4 )

-.004920
(-.4 0 5 )
.2715
(.476)
-.003145
(-.4 6 3 )
.03146
(2.165)
-.00003295
(-1 .8 0 2 )
-.05239
(-.3 4 4 )

Work

.1026
(.3 5 2 )

.1959
(.958)

Occupation

.2711
(.1 5 9 )

1.706
(1.426)

D isabled

-.3 9 8 0
(-.5 7 6 )

-.3841
(-.7 9 2 )

Married

-.2 8 3 1
(-.3 3 1 )

-.3192
(-.5 3 2 )

Num ber o f D e p e n d e n t s

.03274
(.1 1 5 )

-

-.2 6 1 8
(-1 .3 1 5 )

61

TABLE 3 . 1 1

(C o n t)

S a m p le S i z e
334

R Squared
.2934

R Squared
.7 1 5 7

D ru g A d d i c t

.1893
(.7 4 5 )

.08841
(.496)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
A uth orit ies

o f the

.2165
(1 .3 31)

-.1 6 9 5
(-1 .4 8 1 )

T otal P reviou s C on viction s

.07019
(.553)

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.009725
(.8 4 4 )

Cl

.1805
(.065)

1.198
(.615)

C2

-1 .9 2 0
(-.9 7 7 )

1.278
(.9 2 5 )

Minimum S e n t e n c e

-.1 7 4 8
(-1 .9 6 3 )
.04336
(5 .356)

.8 4 8 4
(2 1 .362)

62

tim e.

T he r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n a g e and t i m e i n p r i s o n

T = Age

(.0 3 1 4 6 ) + Age2

(-.0 0 0 0 3 2 9 5 ), s e e F igure 3 .6 .

is
Table

3.12

shows t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw e e n a t t e m p t e d and s u b s t a n t i v e c r im e s
are

in sig n ifica n t.
T hese fo u r crim e c a t e g o r i e s r e p r e s e n t

crim in al behavior:
a g a in st persons)
offen ses

because

d istin ct

th e y have a v i c t i m

(i.e.,

types of
th e y a r e crim es

r o b b e r y a n d a s s a u l t - m u r d e r a r e v i e w e d a s more s e r i o u s

than b u r g la r y and a u t o - t h e f t w h ich a r e p r o p e r ty c r im e s .

R o b b e r y a n d b u r g l a r y a r e more

’’p r o f e s s i o n a l ” i n t h a t t h e y a r e

less

i m p u l s i v e a n d e m o t i o n a l c r i m e s t h a n a s s a u l t - m u r d e r and a u t o - t h e f t .
N ote th a t

the

R

2

o f the r e g r e s s io n s

th o se fo r the oth er c a t e g o r i e s .
an a c t i v i t y

A uto-theft

than th e o t h e r c r im e s .

o f h ig h ly s k ille d

for a u to -th e ft are

low er th a n

i s much l e s s h o m o g e n e o u s

Some a u t o - t h e f t s a r e

c r i m i n a l s who p l a n t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s

the a c t i o n s

l i k e any

b u s i n e s s m a n , o t h e r s a r e t h e a c t i o n s o f p e r s o n s who s i m p l y c a n n o t
r e s i s t d r i v i n g a new c a r .
T a b l e 3 . 1 3 p r e s e n t s a summary o f t h e p r e v i o u s e i g h t t a b l e s .
For e a ch crim e c a t e g o r y ,
independent v a r i a b le s are

the

0 's

and

y ’s

of a ll

r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e i r

the s i g n i f i c a n t

sig n s.

Only r o b b e r y c 'l e a r l y shows a s e n t e n c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l b e tw e en
p le a d in g and n o t p l e a d i n g

in t h e D e t r o i t R e c o r d e r ’s C o u r t .

But

t h r e e o f th e crim e c a t e g o r i e s show j u d i c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n a g a i n s t
n o n - w h it e s , e i t h e r by a p o s i t i v e
(robbery),
th eft).
tain ed
It

is

or a n e g a t i v e

0

0

fo r w hite

N ote th a t th e t o t a l e f f e c t
i n tw o c o e f f i c i e n t s :

p o ssib le

to

f o r n o t D e t r o i t an d n o t w h i t e

o f r a c e on

(w h ite),

i n f e r from t h e s e

(a s s a u lt-m u r d e r and a u t o ­
S

an d

T

is

con­

( n o t D e t r o i t and n o t w h i t e ) .

r e s u lt s the e f f e c t o f

(not

63

FIGURE 3 . 6

YEARS

AUTO THEFT

Time served

20

35

4^

AGE

5*0

64

TABLE 3 . 1 2

AUTO-THEFT

S a m p l e S Lze
334

R Squared
.2934

R Squared
.7 1 5 7

Co n s t a n t

2 3 .9 7
(1 .5 76)

-8.9 0 0
(-.8 3 1 )

-.6 4 6 5

( - . 626)

-.4 2 3 4
( - .584)

.2690
(.190)

1.466
(1.47 2)

N ot D e t r o i t and N ot W hite

-1 .5 1 2
(-1 .220)

1.130
(1 . 2 9 7 )

W hite

-1 .132
(-1 .3 5 8 )

.5638
(.9 6 2 )

D etroit

D e t r o i t and A t t e m p t

Percent

Max

Max S q u a r e d

.00 4 5 9 9
(.266)
-.3 5 4 3
(-.4 3 6 )
.00 5 6 8 6
(.5 8 8 )

Age

-.0 0 7 0 5 6
(-.3 4 1 )

Age S q u a r e d

-.00000019
( - .007)

E ducation

-.4 1 5 5
(-1 .9 2 4 )

-.004920
(-.4 0 5 )
.2715
(.4 7 6 )
- .003145
(-.4 6 3 )
.03146
(2.16 5)
-.00003295
(-1 .8 0 2 )
-.05239
(-.3 4 4 )

Work

.1026
(.352)

.1959
(.9 5 8 )

Occupat ion

.2711
(.1 5 9 )

1 .7 0 6
(1.42 6)

D isab led

-.3 9 8 0
(-.5 7 6 )

-.3841
(-.7 9 2 )

M arried

-.2831
(-.3 3 1 )

-.3 1 9 2
(-.5 3 2 )

N um ber o f D e p e n d e n t s

.03274
(.1 1 5 )

-.2 6 1 8
(-1 .3 1 5 )

65

TABLE 3 . 1 2

(C on t)

S a m p le S i z e
334

R Squared
.29 3 4

R Squared
.7157

Drug A d d i c t

.1893
(•745)

.08841
( .496)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n o f the
A u th orities

.2165
(1 .3 3 1 )

-.1 6 9 5
(-1 .4 8 1 )

T otal P reviou s C on viction s

.07019
(.5 5 3 )

T o t a l Time S e r v e d P r e v i o u s
Terms

.009725
(.8 4 4 )

D1

.09023
(.0 6 5 )

.5992
(.6 1 5 )

2.011

.6785
(.5 9 1 )

C2

-

(-1 .2 3 2 )
Minimum S e n t e n c e

-.1 7 4 8
(-1 .9 6 3 )
.04336
(5 .3 5 6 )

.8484
(21.3 62)

66

TABLE 3 . 1 3
Robbers

B urglars

0

V

0

Constant

+

+

+

D etroit

+

D e t r o i t an d
Attem pt

-

No t D e t r o i t
a n d N ot W h it e

+

V

0

V

+

+

Auto T h e ft
0

V

1

W h it e

-

P e r ce n t Rural

-

-

Max

+

-

Max S q u a r e d

-

+

Age

-

Age S q u a r e d

A ssault

+

Education

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

Work
Occupation
D isabled
M arried
Number o f
Dependents

-

-

-

+

Drug A d d i c t

+
-

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n
o f the A u th o r itie s
T otal P revious
C o n v ic t ions

+

+

+

T o t a l Time S e r v e d
P rev io u s C onvic­
tion s

+

+

+

Minimum S e n t e n c e

-

+

+
+

-

-

+

+
+

+

67

D e t r o i t an d w h i t e ) .
for a l l

T his e f f e c t

crim e c a t e g o r i e s .
Percent rural is

b u rglary.

is

in sig n ifica n t

in e a c h r e g r e s s i o n

5
s ig n if i c a n t on ly

P e r h a p s some r u r a l d i s t r i c t s

fo r tim e

in p r is o n f o r

d e a l mor e s e v e r e l y w i t h

b u r g l a r s w h ic h c a u s e s t h e p a r o l e b o a r d t o be more l e n i e n t w i t h b u r g ­
lars

from t h e s e a r e a s .
N o t e t h e c o n s i s t e n c y o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n minimum a n d

maximum s e n t e n c e s .

For b o t h r o b b e r y and a s s a u l t - m u r d e r

g o r i e s w i t h l o n g ma xim um s, i . e . ,
p o s itiv e w h ile
5

the

0

99

y e a r s ) , the

f o r maximum s q u a r e d

0

(two c a t e ­

f o r maximum i s

is n e g a tiv e .

There i s

no

. p r i o r i r e a s o n t o e x p e c t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n maximum a n d minimum

sentences

to take the

f o r m s how n i n F i g u r e s

tw o -ta ile d t e s t s are u se d .
o n e-ta iled

tests

If o n e-ta iled

a re adopted a f t e r

ca tegory an alyzed

(robbery)

ten cin g

the r e s u l t s

o f the f i r s t

crim e

for bu rglars

S = Max ( . 4 7 3 2 ) 4- Max

in b o th c a s e s th e p a r o le board r e a c t s

2

is

(-.0 0 2 4 3 4 ).

t o the ju d g e s '

sen­

i n t h e s am e way b y s h i f t i n g t h e c u r v e t o t h e r i g h t an d

(for

most o f th e r e l e v a n t r e g io n )
For a l l

see F igures 3 . 1 ,
a u to -th eft are

S

3 .3 ,

and age i s
3 .5 .

d e c r e a s in g tim e

the

the r e ­

s i g n i f i c a n t a n d h a s t h e s am e s h a p e ,

■y's

alth ou gh the

0 's

for

a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and th e r e ­

In v erse shape w ith age f i r s t

i n c r e a s i n g and t h e n

in p r i s o n , s e e F ig u r e 3 . 6 .

E ducation i s
and

except a u to -th e ft,

In terestin g ly ,

in sig n ifica n t,

l a t i o n s h i p has the

0

down, s e e F i g u r e s 3 . 2 and 3 . 4 .

o f t h e crim e c a t e g o r i e s ,

l a t i o n s h i p betw een

fo r both

T herefore

t e s t s a r e em ployed o r i f

then the r e l a t i o n s h i p

s i g n i f i c a n t a n d o f t h e same f o r m :
N ote t h a t

3 . 2 and 3 . 4 .

y.

sig n ifica n t
I t appears

f o r e v e r y crim e c a t e g o r y b u t n e v e r
that

th e p a r o le board a tt e m p ts t o

68

lower tim e in p r is o n

fo r b e t t e r educated persons

on ly i f

the judge

has n o t a l r e a d y done s o .
Work a n d o c c u p a t i o n a r e a n o m a l i e s .
p r e d i c t e d t h a t work w o u ld r e d u c e

S

v a r ia b le s are never s ig n if ic a n t .

If,

an d t w o - t a i l e d
expected to

t e s t s are used

increase

S

and

and p o s i t i v e
p o sitiv e

(i.e .,
T

h a b i t s a r e mor e r i s k a v e r s e )

and

T.

In t h e s e r e s u l t s

however,

the m odel i s

these

changed

work and o c c u p a t i o n a r e

because

then the

f o r b u r g l a r s and t h e

The m o d e l i n C h a p t e r I I

p e r so n s w i t h good work
f ° r work i s

8

y ’s

sig n ifica n t

f o r w ork a r e s i g n i f i c a n t and

f o r b o th b u r g la r s and a s s a u l t - m u r d e r .
The m o d e l d o e s n o t p r e d i c t t h e s i g n o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s

occu p ation .

If

are expected

t o be l o n g e r , c e t e r i s

tim e c r i m i n a l s ,
occu p ation

is

the m odel i s

further

then a o n e - t a i l e d

sig n ifica n t

T his

The

fa th erless
8

and n e g a t i v e .
d i f f e r on th e

y

supports the h y p o th esis

that

in the

o f s e n t e n c in g ou tw eigh s the s u f ­

fo r bu rglary

f o r drug a d d ic t io n

T his s u g g e s t s

is

s i g n i f i c a n t and

fo r robbery Is s i g n i f i c a n t

t h a t th e ju d g e s and th e

p a ro le board

proper resp on se to a d d ic t io n .

t o t a l p reviou s

viou s c o n v ic tio n s)
a l l crim es,

for

y

fa m ilies.

The f i n a l t h r e e v a r i a b l e s
a u th o rities,

can be u sed and th e

I n c r e a s e s minimum s e n t e n c e f o r

fo r drug a d d i c t i o n

p o s it iv e w h ite the

p a r i b u s , f o r p e r s o n s who a r e p a r t test

j u d g e s 1 minds t h e d e t e r r e n t e f f e c t
f e r in g o f the

changed s o t h a t th e s e n t e n c e s

f o r r o b b e r y , b u r g l a r y , and a u t o - t h e f t .

The nu mb er o f d e p e n d e n t s
r o b b e r y an d b u r g l a r y .

of

are

(age a t

co n v ictio n s,

the f e l o n ' s

t o t a l tim e se r v e d

first
total

a tten tio n
tim e s e r v e d

o f the
for p r e ­

p reviou s crim in a l r ec o r d .

fo r previou s c o n v ic tio n s

For

in creases

69

tim e in p r i s o n by e i t h e r a p o s i t i v e
at f ir s t a tten tio n

o f the a u t h o r it ie s

p r o f e s s i o n a l crim es
previous

3.5

is

y,

sig n ifica n t

or b o t h .

con viction s

A ge

f o r the l e s s

o f a s s a u lt - m u r d e r and a u t o - t h e f t , w h ile

total

i s more i m p o r t a n t f o r r o b b e r y a n d b u r g l a r y .

CONCLUSION
T his ch a p ter t e s t s

II.

fj, a p o s i t i v e

t h e s e n t e n c i n g model p r e s e n t e d

Except fo r the exp ected e f f e c t s

model d i s p l a y s
lation sh ip s
ca teg o ries.
S ection

con sid erab le

u su ally

o f work and o c c u p a t i o n , th e

p r e d i c t i v e power.

The n o n - l i n e a r r e -

k e e p t h e sa me fo r m f o r e a c h o f t h e c r i m e

The e x p e c t e d j u d i c i a l d i s c r i m i n a t i o n

2 .7 e x i s t s

in C hapter

in a t

lea st

some c a t e g o r i e s .

discu ssed

in

There I s i n t e r ­

a c t i o n b e t w e e n j u d i c i a l and p a r o l e b o a r d d e c i s i o n - m a k i n g , w i t h t h e
p a r o le board som etim es a g r e e in g and som etim es d i s a g r e e i n g w ith th e
judges*

determ ination o f optim al s e n te n c e s .

70

F o o tn o te s Chapter I I I
1

F o r exam ple

(CR-CR*), th e d i f f e r e n c e b e tw e e n t h e c r im e co m m itted

and t h e crim e ch a rg ed by th e p r o s e c u t o r ,

Is an

im portant d e c i s i o n

w h i c h c a n n o t be h a n d l e d b y t h i s m o d e l .
2

Minimum s e n t e n c e

is

t h e a c t u a l m in im u m , i . e .

t h e minimum g i v e n a t

t h e a c t u a l j u d i c i a l s e n t e n c i n g minus t h e p o t e n t i a l t im e o f f f o r
good b e h a v io r .

T h i s a c t u a l minimum i s

t i m e d a t e , " o r SGD.
after

the i n i t i a l

tences

J u d g es can i f

the " s p e c ia l good-

th ey w ish reduce s e n te n c es

ju d ic ia l sen ten cin g.

on t h e r e q u e s t

and r e l a t i v e l y

ca lled

They s o m e t im e s r e d u c e s e n ­

o f the p arole board.

in freq u en t procedure.

T his

is

a com plicated

In a d d i t i o n , th e p a r o le

b o a r d h a s s t a n d i n g a g r e e m e n t s w i t h so me j u d g e s a l l o w i n g f o r r e ­
lea se o f a l l offenders

sentenced by th ese

SGD.

i f a person

For t h i s rea so n ,

is

j u d g e s n i n e t y days b e f o r e

r e l e a s e d anytim e in the

i n t e r v a l b e t w e e n SGD a n d n i n e t y d a y s b e f o r e SGD, t h e t r u e minimum
sentence

is

reduced fu r t h e r by n in e ty

days.

T h i s p r e s e n t s an e r r o r

i n m e a s u r e m e n t b e c a u s e t h e minimums f o r p e r s o n s who r e c e i v e s e n ­
tences

f r o m t h e s e same j u d g e s a n d who a r e k e p t

in beyond the coded

SGD a r e n i n e t y d a y s l o n g e r t h a n t h e t r u e min im um .

There i s , how­

e v e r , n o way o f e l i m i n a t i n g t h i s e r r o r b e c a u s e t h e d a t a d o n o t
inclu de
3

M ichigan C om piled L a w s:
V ol.

4

t h e name o f t h e s e n t e n c i n g j u d g e .
A n n o t a t e d . ( S t . P a u l , M inn.:

W est, 1 9 6 7 ),

38, 39, 40.

L et the f i v e

elem ent a r ra y

C

represent the su b stan tive

and th e f i v e

elem ent arra y

A

r e p r e se n t the a ttem p ted c r im e s .

a c t u a l crim e

c o n v ic te d fo r has

th e v a lu e o n e , a l l o th e r crim es

have the v a lu e

z e r o ( o n l y oneo f t h e t e n

elem en ts

crim es,
The

in t h e two a r r a y s

is

one, a l l

of

A

others are z e r o .)

from

exam ple

The a r r a y

D

is

the s u b t r a c tio n

C , s e e exam ples 1 and 2 .

1

c

A

D

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

1

-

-1

=

0

0

0

0

0

0

C

A

D

0

0

0

0

0

0

ample 2

-

0

0

=

0

0

0

1

0

1

The f i r s t
and

0

A

set

o f r e g r e s s io n s u s e s n in e o f the te n elem en ts

a s b in ary v a r ia b le s

of sin g u la rity ).
elem ents o f

D.

(one o f th e e le m e n ts

The s e c o n d s e t o f r e g r e s s i o n s u s e s
N ote th a t

the elem en ts

t h e y c a n t a k e on t h r e e v a l u e s
N ote th a t

the t o t a l e f f e c t

i n tw o c o e f f i c i e n t s :
exam ple e q u a t io n 3 . 5

(-

1

,

0

of

D

C

dropped b e c a u s e
the f i v e

are n ot bin ary:

, +1).

o f r a c e on

S

and

T

is

contain ed

w h i t e , N ot D e t r o i t and n o t w h i t e .

For

can b e r e w r i t t e n a s

s « 0O + SjXj + 3 ±x t + pkx k . . .
where

is

of

( 3 . 8)

Xj = D e t r o i t , X^ = N o t D e t r o i t a n d n o t w h i t e , X^ = w h i t e .

E q u a tio n 3 . 8 can be r e w r i t t e n a s e q u a t io n 3 . 9 .

72

s

p0

-

+

e j x j

+

ft^ ■
The v a r i a n c e

+

e kx k

<3 - 9>

+ Bk " » k + Bl < Xj ’ »
of

is

<3

V a r [ 0 k + f t ^ X ^ - l) ^ = Var

0

^ +

( X j - D ^ a r pt - 2 (Xj - 1) Cov(pk,B1)
S in ce

Xj

tw o v a l u e s

is

3 .1 0 eq u als

X^:
0k

zero and o n e .

(i.e .

not D e tr o it),

(w hich i s e f f e c t i v e l y
equals

0

X^

for only

on e, eq u ation

Var 0^.

through 3 .1 2 a b o v e .

T his
If

is

X^
0

^ -

the

eq u als
0

^

’fo o t D e t r o i t a n d W h i t e " ) a n d e q u a t i o n 3 . 1 1
C o v ( 0 k » 0^)

1/ / V a r 0 k + V a r

0

£ + 2 C o v ( 0 k>

E q u a tio n 3 .1 2 y i e l d s a t - s t a t i s t i c w hich i s
both r e g r e ssio n s

eq u als

then eq u a tio n 3 .1 0 e q u a ls

Var 0 k + Var 0 ^ + 2

0k -

If

and e q u a t io n 3 . 1 1 e q u a ls

c a se p r e se n te d in T ables 3 .5
zero

(3.11)

a b i n a r y , e q u a t i o n 3 . 1 0 ca n be e v a l u a t e d

of

’1 0 )

0

£)

in sig n ifica n t

fo r ea ch o f th e crim e c a t e g o r i e s .

(3 .1 2 )

for

CHAPTER IV

4 .1

INTRODUCTION

T his ch a p ter d e a ls w ith
II:

H ypothesis

rela tio n sh ip

(1)

rela tes

three hyp otheses

tim e in

i s ambiguous b e c a u s e i t

p r io r i. eith er

its

sig n or s i z e .

c o n v i c t i o n s and p r e v i o u s
ment f o r a r e l e a s e d

p r i s o n and r e c i d i v i s m .
is

S e c t i o n 3 . 5 shows

punishm ent c o u ld h a v e e i t h e r been

tim e

In p r i s o n .

W hile

th at previous

in crease expected

But the d i s u t i l i t y

th is

T his

im p ossib le to p r e d ic t , a

tim e in p r is o n

offender.

d ev e lo p e d in C hapter

increased

p u n ish ­

a s so c ia te d w ith
or d e c r e a s e d by

i n p r i s o n , a n i n d i v i d u a l may h a v e r e c e i v e d

p s y c h o l o g i c a l and m e d ic a l a i d a l o n g w ith
l a w f u l wage i n c r e a s e d and h i s

tra d e-tra in in g so that h is

u n l a w f u l wage d e c r e a s e d .

On t h e o t h e r

h a n d , he may h a v e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h a r d e n e d c r i m i n a l s w h i l e l o s i n g
law ful s k i l l s

so that h is

wage i n c r e a s e d .
sented

l a w f u l wage d e c r e a s e d and h i s u n l a w f u l

H ypothesis

(2)

ia Im plied

in S e c t i o n 2 . 3 w h ic h p r e d i c t s

that

in th e E h r l i c h model p r e ­
i n many c r i m e c a t e g o r i e s

n o n - w h it e s w i l l be b e t t e r e d u c a t e d th an w h i t e s .
a lso

im p lies H ypothesis

Type I I

(sk illed )

have a s k i l l e d

( 3 ) , nam ely, th a t o ff e n d e r s c o n v ic te d

to

o c c u p a t i o n t h a n o f f e n d e r s who c om m it T y p e I c r i m e s .

in d iv id u a l r e c id iv a te s
in p r i s o n ;

of

c r i m e s w i l l b e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d a n d more l i k e l y

These h y p o th e ses

tim e

The E h r l i c h m o d e l

(2)

can be r e s t a t e d a s

(1)

t h e p r o b a b i l i t y an

is a fu n ctio n o f h is background,

th e p r o b a b i l i t y an o f f e n d e r i s

w h ite

in clu d in g
is a

74

fu n c tio n o f h is background, e s p e c i a l l y h is
in e d u c a tio n d e c r e a s in g the p r o b a b ili t y ;
offender

c o m m i t t e d T ype XI c r i m e s

e s p e c ia lly h is
and h i s

4 .2

ed u cation ,

e d u c a tio n w ith an in c r e a s e

(3)

the

i s a fu n c tio n o f h is background,

h is age a t entry

in to crim in al b eh a v io r,

law fu l occu p ation .

THE DATA
The d a t a u s e d a r e

the records

i n 1970 whose c u r r e n t c o n v i c t i o n

is

o f a l l m ale p e r so n s r e l e a s e d

f o r one o f t h e r e l e v a n t c r i m e s :

robbery, b u rg la ry , a ssa u lt-m u rd er, a u t o -th e ft as
3 .1

t h r o u g h 3 . 4 ; a n d t h e mor e s k i l l e d

4 .1 .

The c r i m e s

crim es.
is

p r o b a b i l i t y an

in T able 4 .1 a r e h e r e a f t e r

Any p e r s o n who was r e t u r n e d t o

tr e a ted as a r e c i d i v i s t .

data:

crim es

R ecid ivism

is

a subsequent crim e.

There a r e

d efin ed

l i s t e d b elow in T able

r e f e r r e d t o a s Type I I

p r i s o n b y th e end o f 1972
p oten tial

problems w i t h th e

n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e same a s b e i n g c o n v i c t e d o f
The r e s u l t s a r e b i a s e d

to the exten t

p r o b a b i l i t y o f c o m m ittin g a crim e and n o t b e i n g ca u g h t
o f the

ind ep en dent v a r i a b l e s ,

lik ely

to be c a u g h t .

c a u g h t and s e n t e n c e d

in T ab les

i.e .,

that

the

is a fu n ction

b e t t e r educated persons are

M ob ility is a l s o

less

im portant b ecau se persons

in o th e r s t a t e s a re n o t cou n ted a s r e c i d i v i s t s .

I n a d d i t i o n , r e l e a s e d p r i s o n e r s who a r e s u b s e q u e n t l y c o n v i c t e d b u t
n o t sen ten ced t o p riso n are not counted as r e c i d i v i s t s .
two hundred c r i m i n a l h i s t o r i e s
Department o f C o r r e c t i o n s

in the Data S e c t i o n

revealed

o n ly one c a s e

c o n v ic te d person not b ein g retu rn e d .
should not s i g n i f i c a n t l y b ia s
The d e f i n i t i o n
p r o b a b ilitie s are

A check o f

o f th e M ichigan

o f a su b seq u en tly

T herefore t h is

s e c o n d problem

the r e s u l t s .

o f v a r ia b l e s used to e s t im a t e

the

three

75

TABLE 4 . 1

T ype I I C r i m e s

Cr ime

Maximum

S t a t u t e Nur

W r it in g C hecks w i t h no A ccount

2

years

750131A

L a rcen y by C o n v e r sio n

5 years

750362

L a rcen y by F a l s e P e r s o n a t i o n

5 years

750363

R eceivin g S to le n P roperty

5 years

750505

Forgery

14 years

750248

U t t e r i n g and P u b l i s h i n g
B ad C h e c k s

14 years

750249

76

1.

D e t r o i t SFEA (1 = D e t r o i t

2.

P e r ce n t Rural (p ercen t o f the country the f e lo n
i n w h i c h was r u r a l i n t h e 1 9 7 0 c e n s u s ) .

3.

Age a t R e l e a s e

4.

E ducation

5.

I.Q .

.

6

7.

8

.

9.

in I.Q .

Grade R e a d in g

resid es

(in m on ths).

(number o f y e a r s

(score

SMSA, 0 = o t h e r w i s e ) .

of ed u cation ).

t e s t w ith

u = 100,

a

= 15) .

(1 t h r o u g h 1 2 ) .

S k i l l e d O c c u p a t i o n (1 = F a r m e r , s k i l l e d t r a d e , Own
B u s i n e s s , P r o f e s s i o n a l , C le r k , S tu d e n t, B u s in e ss M gt. ,
O f f i c e Work, S a l e s , 0 = o t h e r w i s e ) .
M arried

(1 = M a r r i e d , 0 = o t h e r w i s e ) .

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s .

10.

D r u g A d d i c t i o n S t a t u s (1 = N o n e , 2 = E x p e r i e n c e d , 3 =
O cca sio n a l, 4 = S u sta in e d , 5 = A d d icted ).

11.

A l c o h o l (1 = N o n e , 2 = M o d e r a t e , 3 = M o d e r a t e w i t h Low
T o le r a n c e , 4 = Problem , 5 = C h ron ic) .

12.

A g e - - F i r s t A t t e n t i o n o f t h e A u t h o r i t i e s (1 = 8 - 1 0 y e a r s
o l d , 2 = 1 0 - 1 2 y e a r s , 3 =■ 1 3 - 1 4 y e a r s , 4 1 5 - 1 6
years,
5 = 1 7 - 1 8 y e a r s , 6 = 1 9 - 2 0 y e a r s , 7 = 21 y e a r s - o p e n ) .

13.

T o t a l number o f P r e v i o u s C o n v i c t i o n s .

14.

T o t a l tim e in months s e r v e d
previous c o n v ic tio n s ) .

15.

S e r i o u s n e s s ( t h e maximum s e n t e n c e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e
s u b s t a n t i v e crim e t h a t th e i n d i v i d u a l was c o n v i c t e d o f ) .

16.

Time s e r v e d p r e s e n t t e r m ( i n m o n t h s ) .

(in j a i l

or p r is o n f o r a l l

N ote t h a t th e drug and a l c o h o l v a r i a b l e s a r e q u a l i t a t i v e .
not converted

in to s e r ie s

They a r e

o f b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s b e c a u s e t h e number o f

s u c h b i n a r y v a r i a b l e s would be p r o h i b i t i v e .

4 .3

TECHNIQUE
The p r o b l e m s

docum ented in th e

inherent

in e s t i m a t i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s

litera tu re.

is w ell

A b in ary dependent v a r ia b le v i o l a t e s

77

the assu m ptions n e c e s s a r y to u se lin e a r r e g r e s s io n s u c c e s s f u l l y
any o th er type o f a n a l y s is

t h a t assum es a n orm ally d i s t r i b u t e d

term ).

have been s u g g e s t e d by G o l d b e r g e r ,

V arious

Her l o v e ,

3

tech n iq u es

and o t h e r s .

The m e t h o d e m p l o y e d i n t h i s

d e v e lo p e d by N e r lo v e :

is

error

1

T ob in ,

2

t h e one

M u ltiv a r ia t e L o g i s t i c M odels.

T h is method has s e v e r a l a d v a n t a g e s ,
allow s

th esis

(or

one o f w h ich i s

th at

it

f o r s i m u l t a n e o u s e s t i m a t i o n o f up t o f o u r p r o b a b i l i t i e s a n d

in c lu d e s the

in te r a c tio n o f the v a rio u s p r o b a b i l i t i e s .

th e model i s as

G en erally

fo llo w s:
- 2 af.Z
P = 1 /(1 + e

and t h e

Where

P

ctf's

are

is

1

*■)

the p r o b a b i l i t y ,

the c o e f f i c i e n t s .

in fin ity , P = 1 /1 + 0 = 1 .
P = l / l + « = 0 .

.

T herefore

As

-2

P

is

the
As

Z 's
-2

a l^ i

are the v a r i a b l e s ,
approaches n e g a tiv e

approaches

p o sitiv e

bounded by 0 and 1.

in fin ity ,

The e r r o r

te r m d o e s n o t h a v e a l i n e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e
a n d t h e r e f o r e maximum l i k e l i h o o d m e t h o d s a r e u s e d t o e s t i m a t e
The N e r l o v e a p p r o a c h a l l o w s

fo r sim u ltan eou s

the

Z 's.

testin g o f

E h r l i c h ' s h y p o t h e s e s and e s t i m a t i n g t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f r e c i d i v i s m .
Table 4 . 2 p r e s e n t s
the c o e f f i c i e n t s

the r e s u l t s

are

dependent v a r i a b l e s :
co efficien t

4 .4 .1

listed

for a l l

in d iv id u a ls.

in colum ns under e a c h o f

R e c i d i v i s m , W h i t e , T ype I I

The v a l u e s o f
the

crim e.

three r e le v a n t
Below ea ch

in p a r e n th e s e s a r e t h e t - s t a t i s t i c s .

RECIDIVISM
The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a n d i n c r e a s e t h e

p ro b a b ility of recid ivism :

g r a d e r e a d i n g , number o f d e p e n d e n t s ,

78

TABLE 4 . 2
Sam ple S i z e = 1051
R ecid ivism
-.2 6 3 2
(.7 6 8 )

Cons t a n t

D e t r o i t SMSA

.03 6 4 0

( . 212)
P ercen t Rural

Age a t R e l e a s e

E ducation

-.0001622
(.049)
-.002740
(4 .0 5 8 )
.004639
(.138)

Log o f l i k e l i h o o d
-1571.95165
White
-3.1 3 4
(8.003)

fu n ction

T yp e 2 C r i m e
-1.262
(3.517)

.1309
(-672)

-.08060
(.5 0 1 )

.02 382
(5.202)

.007415
(2.426)

-.0003226
(.491)
-.09301
(2 ,412)

.00009292
(.1 54 )
.06 528
(1 .7 1 4 )

( . 110)

.03282
(1 0 .634)

G r a de R e a d i n g

.03797
(2 .2 9 3 )

.05675
(2.91 9)

-.0 3 5 8 6
(1.978)

S k illed

-.2811
(2 .5 8 3 )

.2032
(1.84 5)

.1266
(1 . 2 7 5 )

.0002844

I.Q .

O ccupation

—

.006245
(2 .2 8 9 )

M arried

-.2 3 4 7
(2.21 3)

.08443
(.7 3 7 )

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.07203
(2 .276)

.02249
(.616)

D ru g A d d i c t

.03447
(1 .3 2 1 )

-.1 9 1 7
(5.47 9)

.03082
(1 .1 3 3 )

A lcoh ol

.04972
(1 .5 3 7 )

.11 9 0
(3.25 4)

-.01591
(.467)

A ge F i r s t A t t e n t i o n

.0008989
(1 .7 2 7 )

-.0008933
(1 .5 8 3 )

-.0001857
(.370)

.01385
(.894)

.04516
(2 .6 8 1 )

-.0 1 0 3 2
(.6 4 9 )

.004513
(3 .0 8 0 )

- .001644
(1.01 3)

.001589
(1 .1 0 6 )

P reviou s C o n v ic tio n s

Time S e r v e d
P r e v i o u s Terms

.1123
(1.078)
-.009852
( .289)

79

TABLE 4 . 2

R ecid ivism
S eriou sn ess

Time S e r v e d
P r e s e n t Term

.0004562
(.374)
.004362
(1 .96 0)

R ecid ivism

(C

White
-.001808
(1 .2 4 5 )

.002929
(1 .5 5 0 )

-.0 4 7 4 3

.09107
(2.151)

-.04743

.08349
(1 .7 6 3 )

( 1 . 001 )
Type 2 C r im e

.0 9 1 0 7
(2 .151)

-.0 2 2 3 9
(5 .13 7)

.001429
(.698)

( 1 . 001 )
White

T yp e 2 C r im e

.08349
(1 .76 3)

80

age f i r s t a t t e n t io n o f the a u t h o r i t i e s ,
con v ictio n s,
ta iled

tot^ t tim e s e r v e d p r e v i o u s

t i m e s e r v e d p r e s e n t t e r m , t y p e IX c r i m e s .

t e s t s are used,

d r u g an d a l c o h o l a d d i c t i o n a r e s i g n i f i c a n t

an d i n c r e a s e t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f r e c i d i v i s m .
what s u r p r i s i n g

in t h a t

These r e s u l t s a r e som e­

t h e r e a r e no a_ p r i o r i r e a s o n s t o e x p e c t p e r s o n s

who r e a d b e t t e r o r who e n t e r
high er p r o b a b ilitie s

I f one­

crim inal careers a t a

of recid ivism .

l a t e r age t o have

The i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e

i n terms

i

o f p olicy is
efficien t

tim e s e r v e d f o r p r e s e n t c o n v i c t i o n .

shows,

that c e t e r i s

p a r i b u s , an

in c r e a s e s the p r o b a b ility o f r etu r n in g to

T he p o s i t i v e c o ­

increase

in p r is o n tim e

p rison .

Therefore sh o r te r

s e n t e n c e s a r e o p t i m a l in terms o f r e c i d i v i s m .
The f o l l o w i n g v a r i a b l e s
Age a t r e l e a s e ,

d ecrease the p r o b a b ilit y o f r e c id iv is m :

s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n , and m a r r i e d .

It

is

in terestin g

t h a t number o f d e p e n d e n t s i n c r e a s e s a n d b e i n g m a r r i e d d e c r e a s e s t h e
p rob ab ility of recid ivism .
c r e a s e d and s k i l l e d

4 .4 .2

crim e

N ote a l s o
(Type I I )

that s k ille d

in creases

occu pation d e ­

the p r o b a b i l i t y .

WHITE
The E h r l i c h m o d e l ( s e e S e c t i o n 2 . 3 )

p r e d ic ts th a t n on -w hites

i n many c r i m e c a t e g o r i e s w i l l b e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d t h a n w h i t e s .
co efficien t

for education

is

negative

(i.e .,

ceteris

The

p a r ib u s , the

b e t t e r ed ucated a person th e l e s s

lik e ly he is

su p p o rts the E h r lic h h y p o t h e s is .

But t h e r e s u l t s a l s o s h o w t h a t ,

ceteris

paribus . the h ig h e r the I.Q .

to be w h it e .

I.Q .

t h e more l i k e l y

T his

the person Is

t e s t s m a y , h o w e v e r , be c u l t u r e bo un d a n d t h e r e ­

fore un derestim ate th e i n t e l l i g e n c e
co efficien t

to be w h i t e ) .

for s k ille d

of n on -w h ites.

occupation i s

Note t h a t the

s i g n i f i c a n t and p o s i t i v e ,

i.e .,

81

w h i t e s a r e more l i k e l y
supports the t h e s is
lik ely

t o have a s k i l l e d

occu pation .

T his a l s o

o f E h r l i c h and o t h e r s t h a t n o n - w h i t e s a r e more

t o engage in crim e b eca u se th e y a r e d e n ie d e q u a l e n t r y i n t o

other o ccu p a tio n s.

The r e s u l t s w h i c h s u p p o r t t h e E h r l i c h t h e s i s

are

fact

in s p i t e

non -w hites
greater

t h a t t h e e x p e c t e d s e n t e n c e , F^CTf) , f o r

is g r e a t e r than f o r w h i t e s .
F^ (T ^ )

estim a te the
p o sitiv ely
tio n s.

o f the

To t h e e x t e n t

deters n o n -w h ites, the r e s u lt s

’' E h r l i c h d i s c r i m i n a t i o n e f f e c t " .

in T a b le 4 . 2 u n d e r ­

W hite i s a l s o

r e l a t e d t o p e r c e n t r u r a l a n d number o f p r e v i o u s c o n v i c ­

In terestin g ly , ceteris

p a r i b u s . n o n - w h i t e s a r e more

t o be d r u g a d d i c t s w h i l e w h i t e s a r e more l i k e l y

4 .4 .3

that t h is

lik ely

t o be a l c o h o l i c s ,

TYPE I I CRIMES
The E h r l i c h m o d e l

(see S ectio n

2.3)

also

p red icts

th a t persons

who commit Type I I c r i m e s a r e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d , a r e o l d e r w hen t h e y
enter

i n t o c r i m i n a l c a r e e r s , a n d a r e more s k i l l e d

tion s .

The r e s u l t s

i n T a b l e 4 . 1 sh ow t h a t , c e t e r i s

b e t t e r e d u c a t e d and h a v e h i g h e r I . Q . ' s , b u t t h a t
Is

low er.

p a r ib u s, they are

th eir

The c o e f f i c i e n t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s k i l l e d

p o sitiv e but i t
a tten tio n

in l a w f u l o c c u p a ­

grade r ea d in g

occu pation

j u s t b a rely m isses bein g s i g n i f i c a n t .

t o the a u t h o r i t i e s

is

in sig n ifica n t.

Age a t

C eteris

p e r s o n s who commit Type I I c r i m e s a r e a l s o more l i k e l y
and from r u r a l a r e a s .
ceteris

F in a lly

the r e c id i v is m r a te

is

w ith occu pation s
sen te n ces.)

o f T ables 3 .5

(not n e c e s s a r ily s k i l l e d

p arib u s,

h igh er,
( T h i s may i n

- 3 . 1 2 s ho w t h a t p e r s o n s
occu p ation s)

received

T a b le 4 . 3 p r e s e n t s two-way c o n t i n g e n c y t a b l e s

independent v a r ia b le s .

first

to be w hite

p a r i b u s , f o r p e r s o n s who com mi t Ty pe I I c r i m e s .

p a r t e x p l a i n why t h e r e s u l t s

is

longer

o f the

82

TABLE 4 . 3

RECIDIVISM
No

Yes

No

505

193

Yes

263

90

WHITE

RECIDIVISM

TYPE I I
CRIME

No

Y es

No

566

193

Yes

20 2

90

WHITE

TYPE I I
CRIME

No

Y es

No

546

213

Yes

152

14 0

83

4 .5

I NDIVIDUAL TYPE I CRIMES
T ables 4 .4

Type I c r i m e s :
sep arately.

through 4 . 7

Only T a b le 4 . 4

fo r the o th e r th ree

sa tisfies

for the fou r

that

of

fu n ction s

do n o t c o n v e r g e , t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s

the l i k e l i h o o d

several itera tio n s.

o f T able 4 . 2 , e x c e p t

the convergence c r i t e r i a

A lth ough the li k e l i h o o d

crim e c a t e g o r i e s

a r e s t a b l e and t h e l o g s o f
la st

the r e s u l t s

robbery, b u rglary, a ssa u lt-m u rd er, a u to -th e ft

th e N e r lo v e com puter program.

during the

con tain

fu n c tio n s change very

These t a b l e s

follo w

the

little

format

o n l y tw o d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e u s e d :

recid iv ism , w h ite.
T able 4 .4
and tim e s e r v e d
recid ivism

shows t h a t

g r a d e r e a d i n g , number o f d e p e n d e n t s ,

for p revious c o n v ic tio n s

for persons co n v icted o f robbery.

m arried d e c r e a s e th e p r o b a b i l i t y .
robber bein g w hite
grade r e a d in g ,
co n v ictio n s;

is

and i s

T able 4 .5

lea se,

Age a t r e l e a s e and

The p r o b a b i l i t y o f a c o n v i c t e d

i n c r e a s e d b y D e t r o i t SMSA,

percent r u r a l, I .Q .,

r e d u c e d by e d u c a t i o n , drug a d d i c t i o n , and tim e
terms .

shows t h a t

a d d i c t i o n and tim e s e r v e d
of recid iv ism .

The p r o b a b i l i t y

p ro b a b ility of

s k i l l e d o c c u p a t i o n , a l c o h o l , a n d number o f p r e v i o u s

served for p revious

p ro b a b ility

in c r e a s e the

fo r persons

for

con victed

p reviou s c o n v ic tio n s

Age a t r e l e a s e

th a t a b u rglar

i s w h ite

is

of b u r g la r y , drug
increase

reduces th is

served fo r previous
T able 4 . 6
a lc o h o l reduce

f ir s t a tten tio n

p ro b a b ility .

i n c r e a s e d by a g e a t r e ­

I . Q . , g r a d e r e a d i n g , number o f d e p e n d e n t s ; a n d i s

by drug a d d i c t i o n , a g e a t

the

decreased

o f the a u t h o r i t i e s ,

and tim e

co n v ictio n s.

shows t h a t f o r a s s a u l t - m u r d e r , a g e a t r e l e a s e ,

the p r o b a b ilit y

of recid ivism .

Number o f p r e v i o u s

and

84

TABLE 4 . 4

ROBBERY

Sample S i z e

= 270

R ecid ivism

Log o f L ik e lih o o d
F u n c tio n = -2 3 3 .5 7 1 7 4 6
W h ite

C onstant

-.0 2 5 9 9
(.0 3 1 )

-6 .1 3 6
(5 .2 4 5 )

D e t r o i t SMSA

.06814
(.1 3 7 )

1 .166
(1.822)

P ercen t Rural

-.002986
( .237)

.03670
(2.556)

Age a t R e l e a s e

-.004238
(2 .607)

E ducation

-.06301
(1 .0 1 8 )
.003534
(.7 1 4 )

I.Q .

Grade R e a d in g

S k illed

.1 1 9 7
(2.33 2)
-.05904
(.229)

O ccupation

M arried

-.3 9 7 7
(1 .691)

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.2467
(3 .0 5 7 )

.001143
(.6 3 1 )
-.1 7 3 3
(1 .9 3 8 )
.04036
(5.434)
.1 6 8 6
(2.648)
.4677
(1 .3 7 4 )
.3011
(1.03 5)
-.002065
(.0 1 9 )

- .002901
(.0 5 1 )

-.2 7 6 6
(2 .3 7 1 )

A lcoh ol

.006622
(1 .0 0 3 )

.2513
(2.79 4)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n

.001620
(1.369)

Drug A d d i c t

.02479
(.7 1 3 )

P r e v io u s C o n v ic tio n s

T im e S e r v e d P r e v i o u s

Terms

.008722
(2.56 9)

.0005918
(-417)
.1505
(3 .4 5 8 )
-.006872
(1 .5 1 1 )

85

TABLE 4 . 4

(C on t)

R ecid ivism
S eriou sn ess

T im e S e r v e d P r e s e n t Term

W hite

R ec id iv i s m

-.0 0 0 7 6 2 6
(.4 3 8 )
.004540
(1 .2 5 0 )

W hite
-.0008121
(.320)
.003852
(.841)

-.09428
(.8 5 5 )
-.0 9 4 2 8
(-855)

86

TABLE 4 . 5

BURGLARY

Sample S i z e

— 25 7

R ecid ivism
Co n a t a n t

.6408
(.846)

D e t r o i t SMSA

.07839
(.2 1 3 )

P ercen t Rural

.003013
(.384)

Ag e a t R e l e a s e

-.0 0 4 2 4 8
(2 .75 1)

E ducation

-.1 0 7 8
(1 .53 8)

Log o f L ik e lih o o d
F u n c tio n = -2 4 5 .3 4 1 2 0 8
W h ite

-2 .9 5 8
(3 .672)
-.2701
(.734)
.01342
(1 .556)
.002610
(1 .927)
.04348
(.515)

I.Q .

-.0007902
(.150)

.0306 3
(4 .9 6 0 )

Grade R e a d in g

.00 2 0 1 5
(.0 6 8 )

.8 6 0 9
(2 .663)

S k i 1 l e d Occu p a t i o n

.1 0 7 8
(.5 5 4 )

-.1 1 3 3
(.525)

M arried

-.1 1 9 4
(.6 3 7 )

.02953
(.1 3 8 )

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.06 0 0 3
(.999)

.1 1 0 9
(1 .590)

.07 7 3 2
(1 . 6 7 0 )

-.2 0 7 0
(3 .4 4 7 )

A lcoh ol

.06461
(.899)

.1 6 8 8
(2 .174)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t io n

.00 0 8 5 4 3
(.853)

- .005329
(3 .349)

P r e v io u s C o n v ic tio n s

.003488
(.114)

Drug A d d ic t

T im e S e r v e d P r e v i o u s

Terms

.005726

( 2 . 020 )

-.0 1 0 8 3
(.334)
-.0 0 2 2 8 4
(.729)

87

TABLE A . 5

(C o n t)

W hite
S eriou sn ess

.05397
(1 .1 5 2 )

T im e S e r v e d P r e s e n t Term

.0001162
(.0 0 7 )

W hite

.08492
(.9 5 2 )

R e c id iv ism

.05570
(1 .07 4)
-.03183
(1.801)

.0849 2
(.952 )

88

TABLE 4 . 6

ASSAULT-MURDER

Sample S i z e = 107
R ecid ivism
C onstant

-1 .2 5 7
(.8 6 3 )

Log o f L ik e lih o o d
F u n c t i o n «■ - 7 4 . 7 8 9 4 4 2 7
W h ite

-5 .5 0 6
(3 .1 7 9 )

D e t r o i t SMSA

.07322
(*104)

1.731
(1 .5 0 7 )

P e r ce n t Rural

-.0003608
(.0 2 3 )

.05 910
(2.56 4)

Age a t R e le a s e

-.0 0 3 8 0 9
(1 .7 9 2 )

-.002251
(1 .1 2 4 )

E ducation

.08166
(.5 5 7 )

-.2 0 4 6
(1 .7 1 8 )

I.Q .

.005386
(.4 6 8 )

.04703
(3 .9 5 0 )

Grade R ead in g

S k illed

.09995
(1.34 8)

O ccupation

-.08205
( . 220 )

M arried

-.4 5 6 3
(.9 8 2 )

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.1171
(1 .3 6 8 )

V
Drug A d d ic t

.07877
(.3 6 7 )

A lcoh ol

-.2 5 1 6
(1 .9 3 1 )

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n

.001441
(.7 2 3 )
.2085
(2.9 3 8)

P r e v io u s C o n v ic tio n s

T im e S e r v e d P r e v i o u s

Term s

.00005504
(.0 0 9 )

.06187
(.5 8 7 )
.6572

(1 . 8 6 6 )
(1

.7663
.611)

-.07550
(.7 0 3 )
-.1 1 9 5
(.549)
.1259
(.9 4 5 )
.0006221
(.3 4 5 )
.04436
(.6 4 6 )
.000 8 1 7 8
(.1 1 9 )

89

R ecid ivism
S eriou sn ess

Time S e r v e d P r e s e n t Term

W hite

R ecid iv ism

-.0009543
(.1 8 1 )
.008657
(1.15 4)

W hite
.01099
(2 .0 9 3 )
-.0 0 8 8 8 8
(1.142)

-.10 10
(.470 )
- .1 0 1 0
(.470)

90

TABLE 4 . 7

AUTO-THEFT

Sam ple S i z e = 125
R ecid ivism

Log o f L i k e l i h o o d
F u n ction = -98.9 8 8 6 1 0 2
White

C onstant

-1 .01 9
(.5 6 9 )

-3 .8 9 8
(2 . 5 8 5 )

D e t r o i t SMSA

-1 .47 3
(1 .3 3 0 )

.9490
(.9 1 8 )

P ercen t Rural

-.01484
(.700)

Age a t R e l e a s e

-.004802
(.9 7 4 )

Educa t i o n

.1841
(1 .1 6 7 )

I.Q .

.008364
(.8 5 1 )

.07 3 7 1
(2 .8 7 3 )
.001280
(.4 5 8 )
-.1 5 2 0
(1.42 5)
.02 6 7 3
(3.08 4)

Grade R e a d in g

.1385
(1 .7 9 0 )

-.0 7 0 9 9
(.825)

S k illed

-.9 1 0 3
(1 .69 7)

.2505
(.7 4 0 )

-.4 1 0 1
(.7 8 5 )

-.5 8 1 0
(.970 )

O ccupation
I

M arried

Number o f D e p e n d e n t s

.2 0 3 2
(1 .0 9 5 )

.0 0 8 7 6 1
(.061 )

D ru g A d d i c t

.02697
(.2 2 7 )

-.2 2 6 6
(1 .234)

A lcoh ol

.0 0 9 3 6 5
(.0 6 5 )

.1389
(1 .040)

Age F i r s t A t t e n t i o n

.0001930
(.055 )

P reviou s C o n v ic tio n s

T im e S e r v e d P r e v i o u s

( . 211)

.1176
(1 . 9 4 5 )

-.0 0 6 1 4 6
(.6 3 7 )

-.0 1 3 2 6
(1.399)

.0 1 8 4 9

Terms

-.0001422
(.0 4 7 )

91

TABLE 4 . 7

(Cont)

R ecid ivism
Seriousness

.03342
(.3 3 3 )

Time S e r v e d P r e s e n t Term

.04470
(1.238)

White

-.3 5 6 3
(1 . 6 3 3 )

R e c id iv is m

White
.01464
(.154)
-.007565
(.240)

-.3 5 6 3
(1 . 6 3 3 )

92

con viction s

increases

the p r o b a b i l i t y .

p r io r i reason to expect a lc o h o lic s
b ility

o f being w hite i s

O bviously,

there

t o be b e t t e r r i s k s .

i s n o a_
The p r o b a ­

i n c r e a s e d by p e r c e n t r u r a l , I . Q . ,

o c c u p a t i o n , an d s e r i o u s n e s s .

sk illed

Education reduces th e p r o b a b ilit y o f

bein g w h ite .
F i n a l l y T a b le A . 7 shows t h a t

f o r a u t o - t h e f t , w h i t e and s k i l l e d

o c c u p a tio n reduce the p r o b a b i l i t y o f r e c i d i v i s m .
creases

the p r o b a b ility .

viou s co n v ictio n s

Grade r e a d i n g i n ­

P e r c e n t r u r a l , I . Q . , and number o f p r e ­

in c r e a se the p r o b a b ilit y o f b ein g w h it e .

E ducation

and r e c i d i v i s m red uce t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f b e i n g w h i t e .

A.

6

CONCLUSION
T his chapter t e s t s

th e E h r lic h m odel.

A lthough not a l l o f t h e s e h y p o th e se s a r e supported

by the d a t a , th e r e s u l t s
p red ictive

power.

s e v e r a l o f th e h y p o th e s e s d e v e lo p e d by

show t h a t t h e E h r l i c h m o d e l h a s c o n s i d e r a b l e

S p ecifica lly ,

th e p r e d ic t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p s between

r a c e , e d u c a t i o n , and crim e a r e a c c u r a t e .
the f i r s t

use o f n o n -lin e a r r e g r e s s io n

recid ivism .

This c h a p ter a l s o p r e s e n t s

to e stim a te the p r o b a b ility o f

F o o t n o t e s C h a p t e r XV

A r t h u r S . G o l d b e r g e r , E c o n o m e t r i c T h e o r y . (New Y o r k :

W ile y , 1964)

p. 248-255.
James T o b i n ,

"E stim ation o f R e la t io n s h ip s

V a r ia b le s ," E con om etrica. V o l. 26, no.

f o r L im i t e d Dependent

1 (1958)

p. 26-36.

T he d a t a

was u s e d i n a t o b i t a n a l y s i s w i t h t i m e o u t o f p r i s o n b e f o r e r e t u r n
a s the dependent v a r i a b l e .
e nd o f t h e t i m e p e r i o d
resu lts

I f a p e r s o n had n o t r e t u r n e d b y t h e

(December, 1972) he i s a t th e l i m i t .

The

fr o m t h e s e a n a l y s e s a r e v e r y s i m i l a r t o t h o s e o b t a i n e d

u s in g the N e rlo v e m ethod.
Marc N e r l o v e and James P r e s s , U n i v a r i a t e an d M u l t i v a r i a t e Lo g L i n e a r an d L o g i s t i c M o d e l s . ( S a n t a M o n i c a :

Rand, 1 9 7 3 ) .

T h is book

c o n t a i n s an e x t e n s i v e b i b l i o g r a p h y d e a l i n g w it h b i n a r y dep en d en t
var i a b l e s .

CHAPTER V

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
C h a p ter I I p r e s e n t s two m o d e ls .
e r a t e s hyp otheses about
tested

in C h a p ter IV.

The f i r s t , E h r l i c h ' s g e n ­

In d ivid u al p a r tic ip a tio n

in crim e w hich a r e

The s e c o n d m o d el g e n e r a t e s h y p o t h e s e s a b o u t

j u d g e s ' and t h e p a r o le b o a r d ' s r e s p o n s e t o crim e w h ic h a r e t e s t e d
in Chapter I I I .
C hapter I I I

( e s p e c i a l l y Table 3 .1 3 )

shows

th a t th e model o f

j u d i c i a l s e n t e n c i n g and p a r o l e board d e c i s i o n making h a s c o n s i d e r a b l e
p r e d ic t iv e power.

E x c e p t f o r w o r k and o c c u p a t i o n , a l l

the v a r ia b le s

a f f e c t s e n t e n c i n g a n d / o r p a r o l e b oard d e c i s i o n m aking i n a t
crim e c a t e g o r y .

There i s

evidence

in th e robbery ca te g o ry o f a s e n ­

t e n c i n g d i f f e r e n t i a l between p le a d i n g and t r y i n g a c a se
D e t r o i t R e c o r d e r ' s C ourt w hich i s
o f th e fo u r crim e c a t e g o r i e s ,
there

in t h e

th e S t a t e ' s most crowded.

In t h r e e

(robbery, a ssa u lt-m u rd er, a u to -th e ft)

is evidence o f r a c ia l d isc rim in a tio n a g a in s t n on -w h ites.

the c a t e g o r i e s

d e c r e a s i n g an d t h e n

p rison .

For

o f r o b b e r y , b u r g l a r y , and a s s a u l t - m u r d e r , t h e r e l a t i o n ­

s h i p b e t w e e n s e n t e n c e an d a g e i s n o n - l i n e a r w i t h a n i n c r e a s e
first

l e a s t one

in a g e

i n c r e a s i n g minimum s e n t e n c e a n d t i m e i n

F o r r o b b e r y an d a s s a u l t - m u r d e r , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n

maximum a n d minimum s e n t e n c e s

i s a l s o n o n - l i n e a r w it h an i n c r e a s e

maximum i n c r e a s i n g minimum a t a d e c r e a s i n g r a t e .
ca teg o ries,

e d u c a t io n r ed u c es tim e s e r v e d .
94

in

In a l l o f th e crim e

Number o f d e p e n d e n t s

95

I n c r e a s e s minimum s e n t e n c e
m u rd er a n d a u t o - t h e f t ,

f o r r o b b e r y and b u r g l a r y .

For a s s a u l t -

p e o p l e who b e g a n t h e i r c r i m i n a l c a r e e r s a t a

y o u n g e r a g e s p e n d more t i m e i n p r i s o n .

In the c a t e g o r i e s o f robbery

and b u r g l a r y , t h e t o t a l number o f p r e v i o u s c o n v i c t i o n s
tim e in p r i s o n .
vious

con viction s

For a l l

categories

th e t o t a l tim e s e r v e d f o r p r e ­

in c r e a s e s tim e se r v e d fo r th e p r e se n t c o n v i c t i o n .

C h a p ter I I I a l s o shows t h a t t h e r e

is

j u d i c i a l and p a r o l e b o ard d e c i s i o n m ak ing.

i n t e r a c t i o n between
This

is

e s p e c ia lly true

in t h o s e c a t e g o r i e s w h e r e p l e a d i n g t o a t t e m p t s b r i n g s
sentences.
to o f f s e t

the ju d g e s' a c t i o n s .
is

number o f d e p e n d e n t s , a g e f i r s t a t t e n t i o n

II

l o n g e r minimum

For ro b b ery and a s s a u l t - m u r d e r , th e p a r o l e board a t t e m p t s

C h a p t e r IV s h o w s t h a t r e c i d i v i s m

served

increases

for previous

(sk illed )

term s,

crim es.

in c r e a s e d by grade r e a d in g ,

o f the a u t h o r i t i e s ,

tim e s e r v e d f o r p r e s e n t

The E h r l i c h h y p o t h e s i s

that

t e r m , a n d Type
i n many c r i m e

c a t e g o r i e s , n o n - w h it e s a r e b e t t e r e d u c a te d than w h i t e s
by t h e d a t a .

I n a d d i t i o n , w h i t e s a r e m or e l i k e l y

tim e

is

supported

t o have s k i l l e d

o c c u p a t i o n s , t o be fr o m r u r a l r e g i o n s , t o h a v e more c o n v i c t i o n s , and
to s c o r e

h i g h e r on I . Q .

tests.

a r e b e t t e r e d u c a t e d , more l i k e l y
and t o r e t u r n

P e r s o n s who commit Type I I c r i m e s
t o be w h i t e ,

t o be fro m r u r a l r e g i o n s ,

to p rison .

T h e s e r e s u l t s a r e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h many r e c e n t w o r k s
in g t h a t econom ic a n a l y s i s

generates

t e s t a b l e and u s e f u l t h e o r i e s

o f b o t h c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r and o f s o c i e t y ' s
resu lt
is

is

g ra tify in g .

in show ­

resp on se to crim e.

This

E c o n o m i c t h e o r y a s s u m e s r a t i o n a l b e h a v i o r and

c a p a b l e o f s i m u l t a n e o u s l y h a n d l i n g nu me rou s c a u s e s a n d e f f e c t s .

T his a llo w s

f o r much more r e a l i s t i c

th eories

in what h a s been a

96

s t e r i l e a r e a w h e r e many r e s e a r c h e r s a r e c o n v i n c e d t h a t c r i m i n a l s a r e
somehow d i f f e r e n t

fr o m t h e r e s t

o f mankind a n d t h a t

if

th is

d ifferen ce

c a n be d i s c o v e r e d an d e l i m i n a t e d c r i m e w i l l s t o p .
The e v i d e n c e

in c e r t a in

crim e c a t e g o r i e s

c r i m i n a t i o n a g a i n s t n o n - w h i t e s and a g a i n s t
attem pts
law .

is

p e r s o n s who p l e a d t o

in c o n f l i c t w ith th e supposed e q u a l p r o t e c t io n

o f the

S e n t e n c i n g a p e r s o n more h a r s h l y b e c a u s e h e i s n o t w h i t e

u n con stitu tion al
p u n ish in g persons
is

of ju d icia l d is ­

(although not n e c e s s a r i l y
f o r making p e r f e c t l y

irra tio n a l).

L ik ew ise,

le g a l d ea ls w ith p ro secu to rs

in e f f e c t m aking a l a w f u l a c t i o n u n l a w f u l w i t h o u t r e v e a l i n g

illeg a l

statu s.

U n fortu n ately,

it

is

of in terests

and t h e i r d e s i r e s

its

j u d g e s who a r e c h a r g e d w i t h

b oth s e n t e n c i n g and p r o t e c t i n g c o n s t i t u t i o n a l r i g h t s .
a co n flict

is

between ju dges * d e s i r e s

T his c r e a t e s

t o keep c a s e s moving

t o p r o te c t the c o n s t i t u t i o n a l r i g h t s o f the accu sed

One p o s s i b l e s o l u t i o n w o u l d b e t o r e m o v e t h e s e n t e n c i n g f u n c t i o n
fr om t h e t r i a l j u d g e a n d g i v e
not

it

t o a n o t h e r j u d g e o r j u d g e s who w o u l d

know e i t h e r t h e r a c e o f t h e d e f e n d e n t o r how h i s

g u i l t was d e t e r ­

m in e d .
T able 4 .2 shows t h a t
to be lo n g e r than o p t i m a l .

in terms o f r e c i d i v i s m , s e n t e n c e s appear
But there

longer s e n te n c e s d e te r crim e.

is co n sid era b le evid en ce th a t

T herefore,

it

is

im p ossible t o ev a lu a te

the q u a l i t y o f j u d i c i a l s e n t e n c i n g in terms o f crim e r e d u c t i o n .
is

c le a r that because sen te n c in g has s e v e r a l o b j e c t iv e s ,

s e n t e n c e w i l l be v e r y d i f f i c u l t
The r e s u l t s

w h it e s and t h a t an i n c r e a s e

the op tim al

to d is c o v e r .

o f T able 4 .2 a l s o

that r a c ia l d isc rim in a tio n

It

in creases

support the E h r lic h h y p o th e s is
c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y among n o n ­

In l a w f u l o p p o r t u n i t i e s

r e d u c e s Type I

97

crim es.
a ll

To t h e e x t e n t t h a t s o c i e t y d e s i r e s e q u a l o p p o r t u n i t y f o r

i t s members, a n y a t t e m p t s

to ach ieve

th is

y ie ld the a d d itio n a l b e n e f it o f a red u ction
F i n a l l y , w hatever
u se o f econom ic a n a l y s i s

its

h ea v ily

to

sh ortcom in gs, t h is

It

is a lso

look a t r e c id iv is m .

fr o m E h r l i c h , m o s t o f t h i s

restatem ent

- - o f what i s

i n TyPe * c r i m e s .
th esis

is

the f i r s t

t o b o t h e x p l a i n and m e a s u r e j u d i c i a l an d

p a r o le board d e c i s i o n m aking.
lin ear regression

g o a l w i l l probably

th esis

the f i r s t
A lthough

use of non­
it

borrows

is an e x t e n s io n

known a b o u t human b e h a v i o r .

- - not a

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A

THE EHRLICH MODEL1
There a r e t h r e e t y p e s o f a c t i v i t i e s an i n d i v i d u a l can engage
in:

( c ) c o n s u m p t i o n or non m a r k e t a c t i v i t y ,

(i)

i l l e g a l market a c t i v i t y .

tim e

(T )
o'

The i n d i v i d u a l h a s a l i m i t e d amount o f

Illeg a l a c tiv ity

p u n i s h e d he r e c e i v e s
receives

(T^)

-

non-pecuniary lo s s

in volves

= T

o

c

(T^) .
(T^)

risk .

+ T, + T f .
1
i
of

There i s a p r o b a b i l i t y

I f th e c r i m i n a l i s n o t c a p t u r e d and
I f he i s

where

c a p t u r e d a n d p u n i s h e d he

( T^)

is

t h e p e c u n i a r y and

du e t o p u n i s h m e n t .

The i n d i v i d u a l m a x i m i z e s
is a given s t a t e

T

i n v o l v e s n o r i s k and h a s a n e t r e t u r n

(P^) o f c a p t u r e a n d c o n v i c t i o n .

s

l e g a l mai-ket a c t i v i t y ,

to a l l o c a t e between the th r e e a c t i v i t i e s :

Legal a c t iv it y
Wx (T^) .

(1)

the e x p e c te d u t i l i t y

of

Us

w her e

o f the w o r ld .

u s = U(XS , r c )

X^

is

t h e s t o c k o f some c o m p o s i t e g o o d n e c e s s a r y f o r t h e e x i s t e n c e

of sta te
gain s

s.

It

in clu d es a s s e t s ,

e a r n i n g s , and t h e n o n - p e c u n i a r y

fr o m b o t h l e g a l a n d i l l e g a l a c t i v i t i e s .

a r e two s t a t e s

In t h i s

o f the w o rld .

Xb = W* + W t (Tt) + V 1 (Tx)
„ W* + Wt ( T i ) + Wt (T1 )

98

- Ft

(Tt )

model t h e r e

99

W1

is w ealth .

Expected u t i l i t y

EU (X d , T )
S

is

C

(1 - P . )

The i n d i v i d u a l m a x i m i z e s e x p e c t e d u t i l i t y
(T - T - T-, - T . )
v o
c
1
i'
gives

w ith

T

c

G

J_

G

s u b j e c t t o a tim e c o n s t r a i n t

^ 0 , T- a 0 , T, a 0 .
’
1
’ i

-

\

S

(aEU/^t - \ )

represents

T£ , T ^ , a n d

Given t h a t

The m a x i m i z a t i o n

T^

0

t =

0

T^.

i s a t t h e optimum l e v e l

(dW1 / d T i - dWj^/dTj) / ( & W t / d T i
the

D

t h e f o l l o w i n g f i r s t o r d e r K u h n -T u c k e r c o n d i t i o n s

aEU /^t

t

U (X, , T ) + F . U (X . T ) .

X

- dFj, / d T i - d l ^ / d T ^

is

o p p o rtu n ity curve or th e tr a n sfo r m a tio n curve o f

two p o s s i b l e s t a t e s

of the w orld.

c u r v e b e t w e e n t h e two s t a t e s

The s l o p e

o f th e w orld

is

the s lo p e
X

of

betw een the

o f the in d if f e r e n c e
(P^b 1 (X^) ) / ( (1 - P ^ ) U ' ( X ^ ) ) .

I f the

in d iv id u a l engages

o f the

i n d i f f e r e n c e c u r v e must e q u a l t h e s l o p e o f t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n

curve.
to the

i n b o t h i and 1 , a t e q u i l i b r i u m t h e s l o p e

T h i s w i l l hap pe n i f t h e

in d iffe r e n c e curve

o r i g i n and t h e o p p o r t u n i t y cu r v e i s
G rap h ically

let

p oin t 1 rep resen t

is s t r i c t l y

l i n e a r or s t r i c t l y
the q u a n t i t y o f

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a c e r t a i n amou nt o f c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y ,

convex
lin ea r.

X

se e F igure A .I .

100

FIGURE A . l

P oint 1

Point 2

X
al
Xb l

X

X
a2

represents

t h e amou nt o f

i s n o t c a p t u r e d an d p u n i s h e d .
c a p t u r e d an d p u n i s h e d .

P oint 2

X^

X

consumed i f

represents

^^

2

the

in d ivid u al

t h e amou nt i f h e i s

* ^>2^

t *ie a m o u n t s

^

a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l e s s e r amount o f c r i m i n a l a c t i v i t y .

Compared t o

p oin t

is n o t captured

1

the

in d iv id u a l r e c e iv e s a sm a ller return

and p u n is h e d , X

> X ^ » ant* a g r e a t e r r e t u r n

pu nished, X 0 > X . .
r
a2
al

If

X 's
a

and

X. 's
b

if

he

i f he i s

for a l l

c a p t u r e d and

levels

of crim in al

a c t i v i t y a r e p l o t t e d t h e y may t a k e t h e f o r m s how n i n F i g u r e A. 2 .
FIGURE A . 2

CERTAINTY LINE

OPPORTUNITY CURVE

Y

101

A t p o i n t B , X& - X ^ , I . e . ,
t h e amou nt o f
the
than

X

he can consum e.

A t p o in t s below th e c e r t a i n t y

in d iv id u a l has a g r e a t e r r e tu r n
if

he e s c a p e s .

a ctiv ities

because

to the r ig h t

if

(dW^/dT^) he i s

i f he i s

lin e

c a p tu re d and pu nished

T h e r e fo r e a person w i l l en g a g e o n ly in l e g a l
o f the c e r t a i n t y

At p o i n t A t h e i n d i v i d u a l e n g a g e s

even

t h e I n d i v i d u a l knows w i t h c e r t a i n t y

(dW^/dT^)

lin e

u n le ss he lo v es

in c rim in a l a c t i v i t y

i s g r e a t e r than

ex clu siv ely

(d F ^ /d T p ,

c a p t u r e d and p u n i s h e d t h e c r i m i n a l g a i n s

risk .

i.e .,

fr o m t h e c r i m e .

The f o l l o w i n g ca n b e p r o v e n :
(1)

If

the

in d iffe r e n c e curve i s

the o p p o rtu n ity curve

is

str ictly

c o n v e x t o t h e o r i g i n an d

l i n e a r or s t r i c t l y

concave then th e

in d ivid u al

w i l l e n g a g e i n b o t h i an d 1 , s e e F i g u r e A . 3 .
FIGURE A . 3

(2)

F o r p e o p l e who a r e

su fficien t

con d ition s

X
a
r i s k n e u t r a l o r r i s k a v o i d e r s n e c e s s a r y and

f o r e n g a g i n g i n b o t h i an d 1 a r e t h a t t h e

a b s o lu t e s lo p e o f the o p p o r tu n ity curve
slo p e o f the

in d ifferen ce

are s u f fic ie n t

con d ition s.

curve a t

is

p oin t B.

g r e a t e r than th e a b s o l u t e
For r i s k l o v e r s

these

102

(3)

If

(T^)

and

r i s k then c e t e r i s

(T^)

are not rela ted

to attitu d e

towards

p a r i b u s a r i s k l o v e r w i l l e n g a g e i n m ore i t h a n a

r i s k n e u t r a l p e r s o n who w i l l

i n t u r n e n g a g e i n more i t h a n a r i s k

av o id er.
(4)

An i n c r e a s e

duces

i.

changes
I f the

(5)

it.

or

Individual

(dF^/dT^)

ceteris

(d F ^ /d T ^ )

h a v e t h e same n e g a t i v e

i s a r i s k a v o i d e r an i n c r e a s e

in

i m p a c t t h a n an e q u a l p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e

is
If

crease

or

paribus r e ­

I f the p o t e n t ia l c r im in a l i s r i s k n e u t r a l, equal percentage
in

greater
verse

in e i t h e r

i m p a c t on

( d F ^ /d T ^ )

in

P^.

The c o n ­

i s a r i s k l o v e r b u t i s n o t a t p o i n t A , an i n ­

in th e a v e r a g e p e n a lt y m ight n o t d e t e r

" T h is r e s u l t

is not

i,

it

could even in c r e a s e

i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h an a s s e r t i o n

w r i t e r s on c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r r e g a r d i n g t h e

o f t e n made b y

low , or even th e p o s i t i v e

e f f e c t o f punishm ent o f th e c r i m i n a l p r o p e n s i t i e s

o f some o f f e n d e r s .

S u c h b e h a v i o r i s h e r e f o u n d t o be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h p r e f e r e n c e
an d n e e d n o t b e

(6)

i n t e r p r e t e d a s e v i d e n c e o f an o f f e n d e r ' s

to in c e n tiv e s.

An i n c r e a s e i n

I f w ealth

p ortion

(T^)

(T^)

in a l l s t a t e s

( f o r exam ple i f
and

r isk aversion ,

rela tiv e

there

to

(T^)

lack of

in creases

because o f a
i.

o f t h e w o r l d i n c r e a s e s by a n e q u a l p r o ­
is an eq u a l p e r ce n ta g e

in crea se

in

( T ^ ) ) , and I f t h e i n d i v i d u a l h a s i n c r e a s i n g r e l a t i v e
th ere w i l l be a s u b s t i t u t i o n

of 1 for

t h a t th e r i c h have a lo w e r p r o p e n s i t y f o r I than t h e
(8)

for r is k

,t2

c h a n g e i n o n e or b o t h o f t h e w age r a t e s
(7)

has a

tru e for r i s k a v o id e r s .
the in d iv id u a l

response

i.

i.

T his

im p lies

poor.

T h i s m o d e l c a n be e x p a n d e d b y d r o p p i n g t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e r e

i s n o r i s k o f u n em pl oy m e nt a s s o c i a t e d w i t h 1 .

"The b a s i c

im p lication s

103

o f t h e p r e c e d i n g a n a l y s i s h o l d w i t h some m o d i f i c a t i o n s
general case as w e ll.

3

I n t h i s more

104

F o o t n o te s Appendix A
1

Isaac E h rlich ,

'p articip ation

In I l l e g i t i m a t e A c t i v i t i e s :

A

T h e o r e t i c a l and E m p i r i c a l I n v e s t i g a t i o n , " J o u r n a l o f P o l i t i c a l
Eco no my , V o l . 8 1 , N o . 3 ,
2

Ib id .,

p. 530.

3

Ib id . , p.

529 .

(M ay/June, 1973)

p. 5 2 1 -5 6 5 .

APPENDIX B

The f o l l o w i n g q u o t a t i o n s from t h e l i t e r a t u r e

on s e n t e n c i n g

i s no n q u a n t i t a t i v e s u p p o r t f o r t h e s e n t e n c i n g t h e o r y o f C h a p t e r I I .
(A)

Crime:

G u i d e s For S e n t e n c i n g

w h i c h was w r i t t e n b y a p a n e l o f j u d g e s

t h e N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l on Crim e a n d D e l i n q u e n c y c o n t a i n s
a d iscu ssion

of

f a c t o r s a judge sh o u ld c o n s i d e r .

for

in C h a p ter 4

The f i r s t

is

en titled :
"THE OFFENSE
«

■

■

*

Was t h i s a n o f f e n s e a g a i n s t a p e r s o n ? Was v i o l e n c e u s e d ? . . .
I f t h e o f f e n s e was one o f v i o l e n c e , was t h e d e f e n d a n t armed o r
unarmed? . . .
Was t h i s an o f f e n s e a g a i n s t p r o p e r t y ? Was i t a v i o l a t i o n o f
trust?
Was t h e o f f e n s e commit t e d a s a r e s u l t o f u n u s u a l c i r c u m s t a n c e s ,
o r r a t h e r a s p a r t o f an e s t a b l i s h e d b e h a v i o r p a t t e r n ? " ( p p . 3 3 , 34)
S e n t e n c i n g A l t e r n a t i v e s and p r o c e d u r e s .
American Bar A s s o c i a t i o n P r o j e c t
J u stic e gives

three reasons

One o f t h e s e r e a s o n s

2

w h i c h was w r i t t e n b y t h e

on Minimun S t a n d a r d s F o r C r i m i n a l

for t o t a l confinem ent

is th e s e r i o u s n e s s o f the

" I t would u n d u ly d e p r e c i a t e th e s e r i o u s n e s s o f
a s e n t e n c e o t h e r th a n t o t a l c o n f i n e m e n t . " ( S e c .
The Model P e n a l C o d e ,

3

(im prisonm ent).

offense:
th e o f f e n s e t o impose
2 . 5 , (C) , ( i i i ) )

w r i t t e n b y t h e A m e r i c a n Law I n s t i t u t e

states

the f o llo w in g :
" S e c tio n 7 .01 . . . .
( 1 ) The C o u r t s h a l l d e a l w i t h a p e r s o n who h a s b e e n c o n v i c t e d o f a
crim e w i t h o u t im p osin g s e n t e n c e o f imprisonm ent u n l e s s , . . .
i t Is o f
the o p i n i o n t h a t h i s imprisonment i s n e c e s s a r y f o r p r o t e c t i o n
o f the
p u b lic because :
105

106

(C) a l e s s e r s e n t e n c e w i l l d e p r e c i a t e t h e s e r i o u s n e s s o f t h e
d efe n d a n t's crim e.
(2)
The f o l l o w i n g g r o u n d s , . . . s h a l l b e a c c o r d e d w e i g h t i n f a v o r o f
w it h h o ld in g s e n t e n c e o f imprisonm ent:
(a) the d e f e n d a n t ' s c r i m i n a l condu ct n e i t h e r ca u sed nor t h r e a t e n e d
s e r i o u s harm;
(b) th e d e fe n d a n t d id n o t c o n te m p la te t h a t h i s c r i m i n a l condu ct
w o u l d c a u s e or t h r e a t e n s e r i o u s harm;
(d )

(B)

t h e r e were s u b s t a n t i a l grounds t e n d i n g t o e x c u s e or j u s t i f y
th e d e f e n d a n t ' s c r i m i n a l c o n d u c t , though f a i l i n g to e s t a b l i s h
a defen se,. . . "

P r e v io u s C r im in a l Record

The Model P e n a l C o d e , S e c t i o n
tion
n#

•

(g)

•

7 .0 1 ,

(2)

gives

the f o llo w in g j u s t i f i c a ­

for le n ie n t sen te n c es:
«

t h e d e f e n d a n t ha s n o h i s t o r y o f p r i o r d e l i n q u e n c y o r c r i m i n a l
a c t i v i t y or has le d a la w -a b id in g l i f e f o r a s u b s t a n t i a l p erio d
o f tim e b e f o r e th e com m ission o f th e p r e s e n t c r im e .

S ection 7.0 3

....

"The C o u r t may s e n t e n c e a p e r s o n who h a s b e e n c o n v i c t e d o f a f e l o n y
t o an e x t e n d e d t e r m o f i m p r i s o n m e n t i f i t f i n d s . . . .
( 1 ) The d e f e n d a n t i s a p e r s i s t e n t o f f e n d e r w h o s e c o m m i t t m e n t f o r an
e x te n d e d term i s n e c e s s a r y f o r p r o t e c t i o n o f the p u b l i c .
( 2 ) The d e f e n d a n t

is a p ro fessio n a l c r im in a l....

( 3 ) The d e f e n d a n t

is a dangerous, m entally

Guides F or S e n t e n c ln g

(p.

abnormal

p e r so n ....

38 ) s a y s :

"More s i g n i f i c a n t t h a n a g e i t s e l f may b e t h e d a t e when c r i m i n a l b e ­
havior f i r s t b e g a n ...
An e a r l y p a t t e r n o f t r u l y c r i m i n a l b e h a v i o r
a n d a s s o c i a t i o n s w h i c h h a s p e r s i s t e d d e s p i t e c o n s t r u c t i v e c om m u ni ty
e f f o r t s t o a l t e r i t may s u g g e s t t h e n e e d f o r a c o m m i t t m e n t w h i c h w i l l
produce th e n e c e s s a r y change in a c o n t r o l l e d s e t t i n g . "
(C)

Demographic Background

Guides For S e n t e n c in g l i s t
con sid eration s

(pp. 37-41)

the f o ll o w i n g a s

legitim ate

o f the s e n te n c in g judge:

"AGE
The v a s t m a j o r i t y
o f ordinary o ffe n se s are
c o m m i t t e d by p e r s o n s u n d e r
tw en ty-five years
of a g e ...
The l e s s t i m e
th e r e has been f o r the
o f f e n d e r t o d e v e l o p ba d h a b i t s , t h e b e t t e r h i s c h a n c e s f o r r e h a b i l i t a t io n . . . .

107

FAMILY BACKGROUND AND RELATIONSHIP
The d e f e n d a n t w h o s e p a r e n t s , b r o t h e r s , a n d s i s t e r s h a v e r e s p e c t e d
s o c i e t y ' s demands o f law and o r d e r , . . . a n d w h o s e f a m i l y members a r e
e a g e r t o h e l p h i m , i s a b e t t e r p r o b a t i o n r i s k t h a n one who d o e s n o t
have th e se a d v a n t a g e s . . . .
SOCIAL ADJUSTMENT
S o c i a l a d j u s t m e n t may be m e a s u r e d i n s e v e r a l a r e a s - - e d u c a t i o n ,
em ploym ent, church a c t i v i t i e s , s o c i a l group a c t i v i t i e s , m i l i t a r y
s e r v i c e , management o f m o n e y . . . .
E d u c a t i o n a l r e c o r d may b e a p e r t i n e n t m e a s u r e o f a d j u s t m e n t i f t h e
s c h o o l e x p e r ie n c e has b een f a i r l y r e c e n t .
A record o f reasonab ly
s u c c e s s f u l s c h o o l a d j u s tm e n t and e d u c a t i o n a l a c h ie v e m e n t g e n e r a l l y
represents p o sitiv e t r a i t s .
A h i s t o r y o f s t a b l e , s t e a d y e m p l o y m e n t , w i t h j o b c h a n g e s made p r i m a r i l y
f o r im provem ent, u s u a l l y i n d i c a t e s good s o c i a l a d j u s t m e n t . . . .
His m i l i t a r y s e r v i c e r e c o r d s h o u l d be e x a m i n e d t o a s c e r t a i n w h e t h e r
i t shows e v i d e n c e o f d i s c i p l i n a r y p r o b l e m s . . . .
MARITAL STATUS
IV

The M ode l P e n a l C o d e , i n S e c t i o n
tion

7 .0 1 ,

(2) g iv e s

the f o l l o w i n g j u s t i f i c a ­

for le n ie n c y :

IV

(i)

th e c h a r a c t e r and a t t i t u d e s o f th e d e fe n d a n t i n d i c a t e t h a t he is
u n l i k e l y t o commit a n o t h e r c r i m e .
( j ) the d efend ant i s p a r t i c u l a r l y l i k e l y to respond a f f ir m a b ly to
probat ionary t r e a t m e n t .
(k) t h e im prisonm ent o f t h e d e f e n d a n t would e n t a i l e x c e s s i v e h a r d ­
s h ip to h im se lf or h is d ep en d en ts."
(D)

The i n d i v i d u a l i s o f f e n s i v e

i f he f o r c e s t h e c o u r s t t o

in court i f

he i s n o t r e p e n t a n t

t r y t h e c a s e when h i s g u i l t

The s t a f f o f t h e Y a l e Law J o u r n a l s e n t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s
d istrict

judges

from w h i c h i t

concluded th a t

the r e a d in e s s
act.

Is th e b e l i e f

is ob viou s.
t o 2A0 f e d e r a l

"The p r e d o m i n a n t b a s i s

f o r a c o u r t 's c o n s i d e r i n g a d e f e n d a n t p l e a d i n g g u i l t y
than o n e d e n y i n g g u i l t

less

th a t a g u i l t y plea

o f the accu sed t o a c c e p t r e s p o n s i b i l i t y

Judges f e e l th a t such a c o n f e s s io n

or

culpab le

dem onstrates

for h is crim in al

o f w rongdoing e v i n c e s a

108

repentant a t t i t u d e . . . .

T h e v i e w was e x p r e s s e d t h a t a d e f e n d a n t f a c e d

w i t h o v e r h w e l i n i n g e v i d e n c e o f g u i l t who p r e s e n t e d a f r i v o l o u s
in a d e s p e r a t e

gamble t o sway a J u ry d e s e r v e d a d d i t i o n a l p u n is h m e n t .

The f a c t

th a t r e t r i b u t i o n as an elem ent

o f t e n conde mn ed b y some j u d g e s s h o w s a t
sid er

it

defense

proper.

The f o l l o w i n g

Fo r S e n t e n c i n g R e f o r m .

5

is

in s e n t e n c i n g

is

4

so

l e a s t some o t h e r j u d g e s c o n ­

p a r t o f a s p e e c h , e n t i t l e d The N e e d

g i v e n b y Thomas K a v a n a u g h , C h i e f J u s t i c e

of

t h e M i c h i g a n Supreme C o u r t :
"T he r e a r e t h o s e who s e r i o u s l y c o n t e n d t h a t t h i s ' e y e f o r a n e y e '
p h i l o s o p h y f u l f i l l s a v e r y b a s i c need in t h e i n d i v i d u a l and t h a t part
o f o u r c r i m i n a l la w s e n t e n c i n g t h e o r y s h o u l d r e f l e c t t h i s a l l t o o
human n e e d f o r r e v e n g e .
' L e t t h e p u n i s h m e n t f i t t h e c r i m e , ' we a r e
to ld .
That th e law sh o u ld c a t e r to such b a se i n s t i n c t s I f i n d i n d e ­
f e n s i b l e an d t h e i d e a t h a t a c r i m i n a l 'ow es a d e b t t o s o c i e t y ' i s
no l o n g e r a d v a n c e d b y e n l i g h t e n e d p e n o l o g i s t s . "
Guides For S e n t e n c i n g . (p . 45)

t a k e s a more s y m p a t h e t i c v i e w

of retrib u tio n :
"The c o m m u n i t y ' s a t t i t u d e t o w a r d s c r i m e an d c r i m i n a l s i s a f a c t o r t h e
j u d g e must w e ig h in d e t e r m i n i n g a s e n t e n c e .
I t v a r ie s accordin g to
the n a t u r e and c ir c u m s t a n c e s o f an o f f e n s e ; th e background o f th e
o f f e n d e r ; th e volum e o f c r i m i n a l i t y , e s p e c i a l l y r e c e n t c r i m i n a l i t y ;
i t s a t m o s p h e r e o f s e c u r i t y o r i t s f e a r s and p r e j u d i c e s ; i t s l o c a l
h i s t o r y a n d t r a d i t i o n s ; an d e v e n i t s s i z e , "

109

F o o t n o t e s A ppendix B
1

G u i d e s F o r S e n t e n c i n g , (New Y o r k :

N a t i o n a l C o u n c i l on C r im e a n d

D elinqu en cy, 1 9 68).
2

S e n t e n c i n g A l t e r n a t i v e s a n d P r o c e d u r e s , (New Y o r k ;

A m e r i c a n Bar

A ss o c ia tio n , 1968).
3

Mode 1 P e n a l C o d e . (New Y o r k :

4

"The I n f l u e n c e o f t h e D e f e n d a n t ’ s P l e a On J u d i c i a l D e t e r m i n a t i o n

A m e r i c a n Law I n s t i t u t e ,

o f S e n t e n c i n g , " Y a l e Law J o u r n a l , V o l .
p.

5

66, No.

2,

1962).

(December, 1956)

204-220.

C o n f e r e n c e P r o c e e d i n g s From C o n f e r e n c e On S c n t e n c i n g . ( L a n s i n g :
( M i c h i g a n C r im e an d D e l i n q u e n c y C o u n c i l , M i c h i g a n C o r r e c t i o n s
C om m ission, 1966)

p. 3 ,

4.

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