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Z E E B R O A D , A N N A R B O R , Ml 4 8 1 0 6 18 B E D F O R D ROW , L O N D O N W C1R 4 E J , E N G L A N D 8020711 JENICKE, LAWRENCE OLIVER SIMULATING THE EFFECT OF ALTERATIONS TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM IN MICHIGAN Michigan State University University Microfilms International 300 N. Zeeb Road. Ann Arbor, MI 48106 PH.D. 1980 18 Bedford Row. London WC1R 4EJ, England PLEASE MOTE: In a l l cases t h i s m aterial has been filmed 1n the b e s t p o ssib le way from the a v a ila b le copy. Problems encountered with t h i s document have been i d e n tif ie d here with a check mark v0* . 1. Glossy photographs _ _ 2. Colored I l l u s t r a t i o n s _ _ _ _ _ 3. Photographs with dark background _________ '4. I l l u s t r a t i o n s are poor copy _ _ _ _ _ 5. ° r1 n t shows through as th e re is te x t on 6. I n d i s t i n c t , broken or small p r i n t on several pages 7. T igh tly bound copy w ith p r i n t l o s t in spine ________ 8. Computer p r in to u t pages with i n d i s t i n c t p r i n t 9. Page(s) lacking when m aterial re c e iv e d , and n o t a v a ila b le from school or author ___________ ^ 10. Page(s) ________ seem to be missing in numbering only as te x t follow s ________ 11. Poor carbon copy _________ 12. Not o rig in a l copy, several pages with b lu rre d 13. Appendix pages are poor copy _________ 14. O riginal copy with l i g h t type _________ 15. Curling and wrinkled pages _________ 16. Other University M icrdfiim s international 300 \ both sid e s o f page __________ Z = = = * 0 . AMN A 3 3 0 * Ml 4 8 1 0 6 '3131 761A 7Q 0 type _____ throughout SIMULATING THE EFFECT OF ALTERATIONS TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM IN MICHIGAN By Lawrence 0. Je n ie k e A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y in p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f th e re quire m en ts f o r t h e degree o f DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department o f Management ABSTRACT SIMULATING THE EFFECT OF ALTERATIONS TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM IN MICHIGAN by Lawrence 0. Je n ic k e This d i s s e r t a t i o n documents two s i m u l a t i o n models of com­ ponents o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e system in Michigan and e x p l a i n s t h e i r use in the d es ig n and e v a l u a t i o n o f an a l t e r n a t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r the unemployment in su r an ce system. The r e v i s e d s t r u c t u r e , r e f e r r e d to as th e t h r e e - t i e r unemployment in su r an ce system, was designed as a program which would r e p l a c e th e e x i s t i n g unemployment in su r an ce s y s ­ tem, A s e t o f des ig n and e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a were i d e n t i f i e d to a s s i s t in th e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r unemployment i n s u r a n c e system model and to a s s e s s t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r con­ c e p t r e l a t i v e t o th e e x i s t i n g unemployment in su r an ce system. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system was demonstrated by o p e r a t i n g models o f th e t h r e e - t i e r and t h e e x i s t i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e system i n a changing unemployment environment. A s e rie s of hypotheti­ cal unemployment r a t e p r o f i l e s as well as h i s t o r i c a l exogenous in p u t s were imposed on both models. In general t h e model o f th e t h r e e - t i e r system met t h e e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a b e t t e r th an t h e model o f th e c u r ­ r e n t system. The experimental r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system provided t h e same l e v e l o f c l i e n t s u p p o r t as th e c u r r e n t s y s ­ tem d u r in g times o f high unemployment and over extended p e r i o d s o f time i t would c o s t l e s s than t h e c u r r e n t system. To my w if e A lic e and my p a r e n t s , O l i v e r and Dorothy 1i Support f o r t h i s r e s e a r c h was provided by a g r a n t from t h e Bureau o f Employment and T r a i n i n g , Michigan Department o f Labor ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many people have given me a s s i s t a n c e and s u p p o rt in con duct­ ing t h e r e s e a r c h upon which t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s based. I would l i k e t o thank Richard Donahue f o rm erly o f th e Bureau o f Employment and T r a i n i n g , Michigan Department o f Labor f o r h i s con tinue d s uppo rt o f t h i s r e s e a r c h . I am a l s o ind eb ted t o Mark S is co o f t h e Bureau o f Employment and T r a i n i n g , Michigan Department o f Labor and B i l l Woodland o f Michigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y f o r t h e i r help in perform­ ing t h i s r e s e a r c h . Much in fo r m a ti o n was a l s o provided by E. Earl Wright and Saul B l a u s t e i n o f the Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research. The comments and c r i t i c i s m s provided by P r o f e s s o r s P h i l l i p C a r t e r , Gerald Park, and Richard Gonzalez were very helpful in e d i t i n g t h i s m a n u sc ri p t. I a l s o owe a s p e c i a l word o f than ks to P r o f e s s o r Kenneth White f o r h i s c o n tin u ed guidance and en courage­ ment. F i n a l l y , I want to acknowledge t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n o f my w i f e , A l i c e who r e a d , c r i t i c i z e d and typed ( a t l e a s t tw i c e ) t h i s d i s s e r t a ­ tion. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................... LIST OF F I G U R E S ........................................................... vii viii Chapter I. II. III. IV. INTRODUCTION TO MANPOWER AND GENERAL PROBLEM STATEMENT ............................................................................................. 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n and Overview ..................................................... Manpower Planning .................................................................. The Labor Force System ............................................................ The Unemployment In su ra nce System ................................. Problem Statement .................................................................. 1 5 7 10 14 SIMULATION AS AN APPROACH TO MODELING THE UNEMPLOY­ MENT INSURANCE SYSTEM AND PREVIOUS RESEARCH . . . 20 . The Use o f a S im ulation Model ........................................ A National Labor Force . . . A Markov Unemployment In su ra nc e Model ........................... Urban D y n a m i c s ......................................................................... 20 24 27 29 SIMULATION MODEL OF THE CURRENT MIGHIGAN MANPOWER SYSTEM................................................................................................... 31 Model D e s c r i p t i o n .................................................................. Program D e s c r i p t i o n ................................................................... H i s t o r i c a l Data Conversion and D e r i v a t i o n . . . Parameter Es timatio n ............................................................ Conversion o f UI Model Output t o C o s t ........................... Model V a l i d a t i o n ......................................................................... 31 41 50 57 70 79 SIMULATION MODEL OF PROPOSED (THREE-TIER) UNEMPLOY­ MENT INSURANCE SYSTEM ................................................................... 94 D e s c r i p t i o n o f T h r e e - T i e r UI System ........................... Model o f T h r e e - T i e r UI S y s t e m ........................................ T h r e e - T ie r Program D e s c r i p t i o n .................................. . Parameter E stim ation f o r T h r e e - T i e r UI System . . 94 97 103 109 v Chapter V. VI. Page EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS ........................................................... 114 Perspective ............................................................................... Comparative Response A nalys is Using Hyp othetical Inputs Comparative Response A nalys is Using H i s t o r i c a l Inputs ...................................................................................... 114 125 ........................................................... 133 ........................................ 136 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Areas For Additional Research 115 FOOTNOTES . ................................................................................................... 138 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................... 142 A. SIMPLIFIED MODEL DIAGRAM ........................................................... 143 B. MODEL DIAGRAM ............................................................................... 145 C. MODEL SYMBOLS AND THE EQUIVALENT MATHEMATICAL OPERATION ............................................................................................. 147 D. MODEL PARAMETERS 150 E. FORTRAN PROGRAM LISTING ............................................................ 154 F. BASIC SOURCES OF HISTORICAL DATA AND CONVERSION PROCEDURES ...................................................................................... 191 ......................................................................... ................................. 219 H. THREE-TIER MODEL PARAMETERS ..................................................... 221 I. THREE-TIER FORTRAN PROGRAM LISTING ................................. 223 ................................................................................................... 232 G* MODEL DIAGRAM THREE-TIER UI SYSTEM BIBLIOGRAPHY vi L IS T OF TABLES Table Page .......................................... 1. Model V a r ia b le s and D e s c r i p t i o n 2. Approximate Range o f Levels and Growth Rates 3. Gross Flow Tables (Monthly F l o w s ) ................................. 4. Flows To and From t h e Employable P o r tio n o f Welfare 5. Average Weekly Payment Equations 6. Estimated Weeks Compensated Equations 7. T h r e e - T i e r Model V a r i a b l e s and D e s c r i p t i o n . 8. S t a t u s o f UI R e c ip i e n t s a t T i e r T r a n s i t i o n P o i n t s by P r o g r a m ........................................................... 9. , . 33 , 60 62 . 65 ......................................... 76 ............................. 78 . . . 101 113 Level o f UI by S y s t e m ........................................................... 128 10. Cost o f UI by S y s t e m ........................................................... 132 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Labor Force System ........................................................................... 9 2. Program Flow Chart For Model o f Labor Force and ........................... C u rrent Unemployment Insu ran ce System 43 3. D eter mination o f Weeks Compensated 71 4. Determ ination o f Monthly Program Co sts 5. Level o f th e Regular UI Program: vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data (2) . 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. ................................... ............................. Model Output 75 (1) 81 Level o f th e Extended UI Program: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ............................................................ 82 Level o f th e FSB Program: Model Output (1) vs . H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) .................................................................. 83 Cost o f th e Regular Program: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ................................................................... 84 Cost o f th e Extended Program: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ................................................................... 85 Cost o f t h e FSB Program: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ................................................................... 86 Regular Program Exhaustion Rate: Model Output (1) vs . H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ............................................................ 87 Extended Program Exhaustion Rate: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ............................................................ 88 FSB Exhaustion Rate: Model Output (1) vs. H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ............................................................................................. 89 Regular Program Leaving Rate: Model Output (1) vs . H i s t o r i c a l Data ( 2 ) ................................................................... 90 Block Diagram o f T h r e e - T i e r U . I . System ............................ 96 vi i i Figure Page 16. Comparative Duration o f B e n e f i t s 17. Program Flow Ch ar t f o r Model o f T h r e e - T ie r UI System. 18. Comparison o f T h r e e - T i e r and C u r r e n t Model Response t o Step I n c r e a s e s in Unemployment Rat e, Constant R U I ................................................................................................................. 117 19. S e n s i t i v i t y A n a ly s is o f Changes in Unemployment R a te s , Con stant R U I .......................................................................... 121 20. Comparison o f T h r e e - T ie r Model Level Output with H i s t o r i c a l Level o f Regular Plus Extended UI, J an uar y 1970 - June 1977 ............................................................ 127 Comparison o f T h r e e - T ie r Model Cost Output with H i s t o r i c a l Cost o f Regular Plus Extended Program, Ja nuary 1970 - June 1977 ............................................................ 130 21. ix ......................................... 98 104 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION TO MANPOWER AND GENERAL PROBLEM STATEMENT I n t r o d u c t i o n and Overview This d i s s e r t a t i o n has two major o b j e c t i v e s . The f i r s t is to document and e x p l a i n a s i m u l a t i o n model o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e system in Michigan. This model was i n ten d ed t o be a to ol f o r e v a l u a t i n g and a s s e s s i n g th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f manpower p o l i c i e s and programs in th e S t a t e . Since th e development e f f o r t was a f a i r l y l a r g e undertakin g ( r e q u i r i n g approxim ate ly two y e a r s ) , a s u b s t a n t i a l p o r t i o n o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n w i l l be concerned with r e c o r d in g and e x p l a i n i n g th e model. The second o b j e c t i v e o f the d i s s e r t a t i o n i s to use t h e model in t h e des ig n and e v a l u a t i o n o f an a l t e r n a t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r th e unemployment i n su r a n c e system. The r e v i s e d s t r u c t u r e , r e f e r r e d t o as th e t h r e e - t i e r unemployment in su r an ce system was viewed as a program which would r e p l a c e th e e x i s t i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e (UI) system. The t h r e e - t i e r UI s t r u c t u r e was proposed in i t s c u r r e n t form by Saul B l a u s t e i n o f th e Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research as p a r t o f a l a r g e r Job S e c u r i t y S y ste m J A key f a c t which must be ke p t in mind i s t h a t many assumptions had to be made conc er ning t h e e x a c t form t h a t th e t h r e e t i e r s t r u c t u r e would assume. This was n e c e s s a r y s i n c e th e new s t r u c t u r e e x i s t e d in a ge ner al proposal form only w i th o u t t h e 1 2 s p e c i f i c a t i o n s r e q u i r e d f o r implementation a n d / o r d e t a i l e d modeling. For t h i s reason th e r e s u l t s and c o n c l u s io n s s e t f o r t h in t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n must be l i m i t e d to t h e s p e c i f i c form p r e s e n te d and not a t t r i b u t e d to th e t h r e e - t i e r co ncept in g e n e r a l . The des ig n and e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e proposed UI system n e c e s s i ­ t a t e d th e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a second s i m u l a t i o n model. By o p e r a t i n g both t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e p o r t i o n o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e simula­ t i o n model and the t h r e e - t i e r s im u l a t i o n model with i d e n t i c a l i n p u t s , a comparison o f t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h e c u r r e n t and proposed systems was made. The f o llo w i n g d i s c u s s i o n w i l l e x p l a i n t h e o r i g i n s o f t h i s r e s e a r c h , in t r o d u c e t h e r e a d e r to manpower i s s u e s , and a s s i s t in underst anding t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f a s im u l a t i o n model. The r e s e a r c h on which t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s based had i t s o r i g i n s in t h e unemployment c r i s i s t h a t followed t h e o i l embargo and r e s u l t a n t r e c e s s i o n beginning in t h e F a l l o f 1974. In response to t h i s s i t u a t i o n , numerous p r o p o s a ls were in tro d u c e d i n t o th e l e g i s l a t u r e f o r programs such as l a r g e s c a l e p u b lic works, extended and expanded unemployment in s u r a n c e , heavy r e l i a n c e on temporary p u b l i c s e r v i c e employment, and v a r i o u s employment s t i m u l a t i n g in c e n t i v e s f o r th e p r i v a t e s e c t o r . However l i t t l e info rm ation was a v a i l a b l e on t h e c o s t s o f t h e s e programs and t h e i r r e l a t i v e u s e f u l ­ ness f o r a l l e v i a t i n g unemployment and th e a t t e n d a n t s o c i a l and f i n a n c i a l problems. In r espons e t o t h i s s i t u a t i o n and t h e c o n t i n u ­ ing need to e v a l u a t e manpower programs, i t was decided t o develop a s im u l a t i o n model o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e in Michigan. 3 One problem faced by s t a t e manpower p l a n n e r s i s t h e a l l o c a ­ t i o n o f th e s t a t e ' s r e s o u r c e s to v a r io u s programs and agencies to a i d in matching th e supply o f and demand f o r l a b o r . This in v o lv es improving and c o o r d i n a t i n g s t a t e p o l i c i e s , programs and l e g i s l a t i o n to pro vide people with o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r s u i t a b l e employment and to provide employers with q u a l i f i e d p er s o n n e l . The s i m u l a t i o n model of t h e l a b o r f o r c e system was intended to f u r n i s h manpower pla n n er s with a tool f o r examining th e e f f e c t o f changes to e x i s t i n g p o l i c i e s and programs as well as e v a l u a t i n g proposed p o l i c i e s and programs. The s im u l a t i o n model o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e which was developed r e f l e c t s th e new i n t e r e s t o f economists and manpower p la n n e r s in flows o f people w i t h i n th e l a b o r f o r c e . The t r a d i t i o n a l emphasis has been on th e s i z e o r le v e l o f v a r i o u s l a b o r f o r c e c a t e g o r i e s and n e t changes in t h e s e l e v e l s . However, underst anding th e dynamics o f manpower r e q u i r e s a s c e r t a i n i n g th e gross flows t o and from each c a t e g o r y which a r e o f t e n much more dynamic than one might expe ct from t h e n e t changes i n a l e v e l . For example, in a t y p i c a l month, th e S t a t e o f Michigan unemployment r a t e might i n c r e a s e from 8 . 0 to 8.1 p e r c e n t r e p r e s e n t i n g a n et i n c r e a s e in th e number o f unemployed people o f ap proxim a te ly 4000. This f i g u r e t y p i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t s th e d i f f e r e n c e between 142,000 persons becoming unemployed and 138,000 le a v i n g th e ranks o f th e unemployed. The model s im u l a te s t h e s e gross flows and th e r e s u l t a n t changes in l e v e l s f o r th e var io u s categories within the labor force. The c u r r e n t v e r s i o n o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e s im u la ti o n model i s general in n a t u r e and provid e s an a g g r e g a te view o f th e l a b o r 4 f o r c e and i t s components. In a d d i t i o n to t h i s , th e lack o f a c c u r a t e d a ta in some a r e a s has l i m i t e d t h e development and v a l i d a t i o n o f c e r t a i n p o r t i o n s o f th e model. This means t h a t a s p e c i f i c problem o r p o l i c y change to be i n v e s t i g a t e d could r e q u i r e f u r t h e r develop­ ment and v a l i d a t i o n e f f o r t s o f t h e r e l e v a n t p o r t i o n s o f th e model. For t h e s e r ea so ns t h e focus o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n w ill be on th e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system. The e n t i r e s im u la ti o n model w il l be documented and e x p la in e d b u t e x p e r im e n ta tio n w i l l be l i m i t e d to the unemployment i n su r a n c e (UI) subsystem. This p o r t i o n o f the model has had th e most e f f o r t in tun in g and r e fi n e m e n t and th e h i s t o r i c a l d a ta used in a s s e s s i n g t h e co rre spondence between th e model and t h e e x i s t i n g UI system has been a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y . Also t h e UI subsystem has had a f i n a n c i a l burden component added to i t s o u t p u t so t h a t t h e c o s t i m p l i c a t i o n s o f p o l i c y changes may be e x p lo r e d . The e x p e r i e n c e gained in under stan d in g flows and e s t i m a t ­ ing pa ram eter s f o r th e model o f th e c u r r e n t system has been o f g r e a t help in c o n s t r u c t i n g th e model o f th e proposed t h r e e - t i e r UI system. This had enhanced th e v a l i d i t y o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model and pr o v id e s a s t r o n g e r b a s i s f o r drawing c o n c lu s io n s ab out t h e r e l a t i v e e f f e c t i v e ­ ness o f t h e c u r r e n t and t h r e e - t i e r UI systems. The remainder o f t h i s c h a p t e r w i l l e x p l a i n s t a t e l e v e l manpower p l a n n in g , t h e l a b o r f o r c e system and th e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system. This i s inten ded to a s s i s t th e r e a d e r n o t f a m i l i a r with t h e manpower ar ea in g a in in g some under ­ s ta n d in g o f th e f i e l d . F i n a l l y a problem s ta t e m e n t i s p r e s e n t e d which f ocu se s on th e weaknesses o f t h e c u r r e n t unemployment 5 in su r an ce system and l i s t s s e v e ra l d es ig n and e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a f o r th e proposed t h r e e - t i e r UI system. The second c h a p t e r d i s c u s s e s th e a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f s im u l a t i o n modeling f o r a d d r e s s i n g the problem and p r e s e n t s a b r i e f summary o f o t h e r s i m i l a r s im u l a t i o n research e f f o r t s . The t h i r d c h a p t e r documents in d e t a i l th e sim ula­ t i o n model o f th e c u r r e n t l a b o r f o r c e system in Michigan with an emphasis on th e unemployment in su r a n c e p o r t i o n o f th e model. The f o u r th c h a p t e r d i s c u s s e s in d e t a i l th e proposed t h r e e - t i e r s t r u c t u r e and s im u l a t i o n model f o r t h e unemployment i n su r a n c e system. The f i f t h c h a p t e r p r e s e n t s t h e r e s u l t s o f comparing t h e res ponse o f both models to a s e r i e s o f h y p o t h e t i c a l and h i s t o r i c a l i n p u t s . The s i x t h and l a s t c h a p t e r i s a summary and co n c lu s io n o f the r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s and experim ental r e s u l t s . Manpower Planning In th e S t a t e o f Michigan t h e l a r g e i n c r e a s e in th e number o f unemployed workers has made manpower plan ning a major concern. Manpower planning i s concerned with matching th e supply o f la b o r ( people) with th e demand f o r l a b o r ( p o s i t i o n s ) . S pecifically i t is th e c o o r d i n a t i o n and improvement o f s t a t e p o l i c i e s , programs and l e g i s l a t i o n to pr ov ide Michigan r e s i d e n t s with o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r s u i t a b l e employment and t o provid e employers with q u a l i f i e d p e r s o n n e l. Any mismatch between t h e supply and demand f o r l a b o r in geographic a r e a s a n d / o r demographic, oc c u p a tio n a l o r i n d u s t r y groups r e s u l t s in f i n a n c i a l and s o c i a l c o s t s to t h e s t a t e . Surplus manpower y i e l d s f i n a n c i a l c o s t s in th e form o f in c r e a s e d t r a n s f e r payments such as w e l f a r e and unemployment i n s u r a n c e b e n e f i t s . 6 Surplus manpower a l s o r e s u l t s in th e s o c i a l c o s t o f unemployment. S i m i l a r l y , manpower s h o r t a g e s may c o n t r i b u t e to a l o s t t a x b a s e as employers d e c id e t o l o c a t e e lse w h ere. Shortages may a l s o c o n t r i b u t e to t h e major s o c i a l c o s t o f i n f l a t i o n as employers b id up wages f o r s c a r c e manpower. I t i s not d i f f i c u l t to f i n d some a r e a s with high unemployment and co rres p o n d in g t r a n s f e r payments while in o t h e r a r e a s l a b o r s h o r t a g e s a r e c o n t r i b u t i n g to low p r o d u c tio n and i n f l a tion. The need f o r b e t t e r manpower plan n in g i s c l e a r l y a p p a r e n t . There a r e s evera l im p o rta n t a c t i v i t i e s in manpower p la n n in g . Manpower plann in g must i d e n t i f y t h e manpower needs o f t h e s t a t e . This in v o lv es det erm in ing t h e number o f people both in and out of t h e l a b o r f o r c e who could b e n e f i t from manpower a s s i s t a n c e in some form. Such i n d i v i d u a l s a r e t h o s e who have en countered d i f f i c u l t y i n t h e l a b o r market such as t h o s e working p a r t time because th e y could not fin d f u l l time employment, t h e working poor, employable w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s , disc ou rag ed workers who withdrew from t h e l a b o r f o r c e and unemployment in su r an ce r e c i p i e n t s . The desig n o f manpower programs i s a n o t h e r im p o rtan t a c t i v i t y o f manpower p l a n n in g . This in c lu d e s d eterm ining t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between and c o o r d i n a t i n g th e manpower system with o t h e r s t a t e systems such as w e l f a r e and education. The design a c t i v i t y must a l s o c o n s id e r t h e l e g a l , p o l i t i c a l and s o c ia l environment w i t h i n which manpower programs and p o l i c i e s must o p e r a t e . The r e s u l t i n g programs, p o l i c i e s and l e g i s l a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from t h e design endeavor u s u a l l y g iv e r i s e to f o u r b a s i c approaches t o s o l v i n g manpower problems. These a r e t h e c r e a t i o n o f j o b s such as p u b l i c works programs, income s u p p o rt such as unemployment i n s u r a n c e , job s ea rc h a s s i s t a n c e and v o catio n al t r a i n i n g progra m s .”* Since manpower p l anning i s c l o s e l y r e l a t e d to s t a t e lev el economic and f i n a n c i a l planning t h e r e i s a need f o r good c o o r d i n a ­ t i o n between t h e s e a c t i v i t i e s . An im po rt an t f a c t o r in t h e plan ning c o o r d i n a t i o n e f f o r t i s t h e unemployment in su r a n c e system. The unemployment i n s u r a n c e system i s viewed as a manpower program to provid e income s u p p o r t f o r unemployed workers. I t s purpose i s to g iv e t h e i n d i v i d u a l time t o s e a rc h f o r new employment c o n s i s t e n t with h i s o r h e r e x p e r ie n c e by removing t h e perso nal f i n a n c i a l p r e s s u r e which could caus e th e a c c e p ta n c e o f u n s u i t a b l e employment. Unemploy­ ment in su r an ce i s a l s o a major economic f o r c e in c u s h io n in g th e e f f e c t o f r e c e s s i o n s in t h e s t a t e . B e n e f i t s paid to unemployed workers pr e v e n t a d r a s t i c drop in buying power dur ing p e r i o d s o f high unemployment. F i n a n c ia l p la n n in g t o en s u re t h e solvency o f unemployment in s u r a n c e funds i s c u r r e n t l y (as o f t h i s w r i t i n g ) an i m p o rt a n t concern f o r t h e S t a t e o f Michigan. The s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h i s i s t h a t e f f e c t i v e manpower economic and f i n a n c i a l planning can not be accomplished w ith o u t c l o s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n of t h e unemploy­ ment in su r an ce system. The Labor Force System The s t a t e unemployment i n s u r a n c e program may be viewed as one component o f a l a r g e l a b o r f o r c e system. The l a b o r f o r c e system c o n s i s t s o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e with i t s two c a t e g o r i e s o f employment 8 and unemployment. The l a b o r f o r c e i s d e f i n e d as a l l members o f t h e p o p u la t io n who a r e age 16 o r ov er and e i t h e r employed or a c t i v e l y seek in g work (unemployed). The remainder o f th e p o p u la t io n i s r e f e r r e d to as t h e non l a b o r f o r c e . The p o r t i o n o f th e l a b o r f o r c e r e f e r r e d t o as unemployed may be f u r t h e r s ubdivided in to t h e unemploy­ ment i n s u r a n c e c a t e g o r y , t h e employable w e l f a r e c a t e g o r y and t h e "without b e n e f i t s c a t e g o r y " . Note t h a t t h i s view o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e i s somewhat a r t i f i c i a l s i n c e i t i s p o s s i b l e f o r i n d i v i d u a l s to be in two c a t e g o r i e s s im u l t a n e o u s l y . For example a person can r e c e i v e w e l f a r e b e n e f i t s and a l s o be employed. The d i s t o r t i o n due t o t h i s c a t e g o r y o v e r l a p i s assumed t o be small s i n c e t h e r e a ppears to be few such c a s e s . This assumption i s most open to q u e s t i o n in th e a r ea o f p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e o r w e l f a r e . Since l i t t l e d a ta i s a v a i l ­ a b l e to e s t i m a t e t h e magnitude o f t h e w e l f a r e o v e r l a p with o t h e r c a t e g o r i e s , th e assumption i s a p o t e n t i a l s o u rce o f e r r o r . This view point o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e and i t s c a t e g o r i e s in r e l a t i o n to th e t o t a l p o p u l a t i o n i s diagrammed in Figure 1. Unemployment i n s u r a n c e i s t h e segment o f t h e pool o f unemployed who a r e r e c e i v i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e b e n e f i t s . The employable w e l f a r e c a t e g o r y r e f e r s t o i n d i v i d u a l s who a r e in t h e l a b o r f o r c e ( a c t i v e l y seeking work) and r e c e i v i n g w e l f a r e b e n e f i t s . The w i t h ­ o u t b e n e f i t s c a t e g o r y , which w i l l be r e f e r r e d to as t h e WOB c a t e g o r y , i s a r e s i d u a l c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t h a t shows t h e number o f unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s having no d i s c e r n a b l e means o f p u b l i c f i n a n c i a l s u p p o r t . This breakdown o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e focuse s on unemployment and r e f l e c t s t h e s t a t e ' s i n t e r e s t in minimizing t h e f i n a n c i a l and TO TA L POPULATION NON LABOR FORCE LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT WITHOUT BENEFITS (WOB) EMPLOYABLE WELFARE FIGURE I . — LABOR FORCE SYSTEM UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE 10 s o c ia l c o s t o f unemployment. I n d i v i d u a l s in t h e l a b o r f o r c e r e c e i v i n g w e l f a r e o r unemployment i n su r a n c e b e n e f i t s r e s u l t in a f i n a n c i a l c o s t to t h e s t a t e . Unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s a l s o r e p r e s e n t an o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t to t h e s t a t e in t h e form o f l o s t ta x re ve nu es . There i s a l s o a s o c ia l c o s t to unemployment. People who have l o s t o r a r e unable to f i n d employment c o n s i s t e n t with t h e i r p a s t t r a i n i n g o r e x p er ien ce may be f orc ed i n t o a c c e p t i n g j o b s which th ey a r e u n s u it e d f o r . Unemployment f o rc ed upon heads o f households may n e c e s s i t a t e t h a t o t h e r f am ily members e n t e r t h e job market t o a s s i s t in m ain ta in in g t h e fa m il y income. Regardless o f t h e measures o f c o s t used, t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between a l l components o f th e l a b o r f o r c e must be c o n s i d e r e d . A proposed change in one component such as unemployment insu ran ce w i l l a f f e c t th e e n t i r e system. The use­ f u l n e s s o f any manpower plann ing tool d e a l i n g with t h e employment in su rance system w ill be enhanced i f i t c o n s i d e r s t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p to t h e r e s t o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e . The Unemployment In su ran ce System The unemployment i n s u r a n c e system was c r e a t e d in 1935 as p a r t o f th e Social S e c u r i t y Act. I t i s viewed as an income mainte­ nance program t h a t pr ov ides i n s u r a n c e a g a i n s t a p o r t i o n o f l o s t wages f o r workers t h a t become unemployed. Like any in su r an ce program funds a r e accumulated over time to be paid o u t when th e event i n s u r e d a g a i n s t o c c u r s . Unemployment in su r a n c e funds a r e b u i l t up by employer c o n t r i b u t i o n s in t h e form o f p a y r o l l t a x e s t h a t w ill be paid t o workers a s weekly b e n e f i t s when unemployment o c c u r s . 11 Unemployment i n su r a n c e b e n e f i t s a r e paid as a r i g h t o f t h e in s u r e d worker. This i s in c o n t r a s t t o o t h e r forms o f income maintenance, such as p u b lic a s s i s t a n c e ( w e l f a r e ) , which r e q u i r e a dem onstra tion o f f i n a n c i a l need b e f o r e b e n e f i t s w i l l be p a i d . Unemployment insu rance a l s o does not r e q u i r e a ca s e by ca s e judgment o f i n d iv i d u a l need. B e n e f i t amounts and d u r a t i o n a r e determined by law so t h a t workers know in advance what they w i l l r e c e i v e and f o r how long in t h e ev en t t h a t th ey become unemployed. The main o b j e c t i v e o f unemployment in su r a n c e i s to pr ovide a s s i s t a n c e to t h e i n d i v i d u a l worker dur in g p e r i o d s o f i n v o l u n t a r y unemployment. This allows t h e worker t o m a in ta in h i s or he r c u r r e n t s ta n d a r d o f l i v i n g to a s u b s t a n t i a l degr ee and pro vide t h e time needed to f i n d new employment c o n s i s t e n t with t h e w o r k e r 's previous employment and t r a i n i n g . A secondary o b j e c t i v e o f unemployment i n s u r a n c e i s to promote economic e f f i c i e n c y and s t a b i l i t y . Benefit l e v e l s which do not co m pletely r e p l a c e former wages encourage workers to r e t u r n t o employment a s soon as p o s s i b l e . B e n e f i t s paid to workers pr e v e n t a s e r i o u s drop in p u r ch asin g power and th e r e s u l t ­ ing d e p r e s s i n g e f f e c t on t h e n a t i o n a l o r l o c a l economy. By basing employer pa y r o ll t a x e s on a l a y o f f "ex p e r ie n c e r a t i n g " employers a r e encouraged t o s t a b i l i z e employment. Employers with a h i s t o r y o f l a y o f f s bea r a l a r g e r pa y r o ll ta x than th o s e employers with a 4 r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e workforce. There a r e s e v e r a l programs under t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e (UI) system: t h e r e g u l a r o r permanent unemployment i n s u r a n c e program, 12 th e f e d e r a l - s t a t e extended b e n e f i t s program and t h e f e d e r a l l y funded Federal Supplemental B e n e f i ts (FSB) program. The FSB program was c r e a t e d by a Congressional a c t as a temporary a d d i t i o n t o t h e UI system and has s in c e e x p i r e d . These programs d i f f e r from one a n o t h e r in t h e d u r a t io n o f b e n e f i t s and how th ey a r e f in a n c e d . The combined coverage o f t h e s e programs e n s u re s t h a t n e a r l y everyone with some l a b o r f o r c e attach men t i s e l i g i b l e f o r some form o f unemployment compensation. The extended b e n e f i t s program a c t s as an e x t e n s io n to th e r e g u l a r program a llow in g some workers to c o l l e c t up to 39 weeks o f b e n e f i t s . Unlike th e r e g u l a r program, the extended program only o p e r a t e s du rin g p e r i o d s o f high unemployment. The r e g u l a r program i s finance d by employers through t h e p ay roll t a x and t h e extended program i s fin a n c e d by 50% s t a t e funds ( p a y r o l l t a x ) and 50% f e d e ra l funds. The unemployment i n s u r a n c e system i s a pro duct o f both s t a t e and f e d e r a l l e g i s l a t i o n with some u n i f o r m i t y from s t a t e to state. This i s accomplished by f e d e r a l c o n t r o l over each s t a t e ' s UI l e g i s l a t i o n via th e f e d e r a l gover nment's t a x i n g power. However, each s t a t e has c o n s i d e r a b l e l a t i t u d e in d e term in ing t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e t a x r a t e and e x p e r ie n c e r a t i n g as well as de term in ing th e t a x a b l e base f o r p a y r o l l . Thus s t a t e l evel government has some c o n t r o l over t h e s i z e o f i t s UI fund r e s e r v e s . One q u e s ti o n f a c i n g s t a t e planners and lawmakers i s what i s an a p p r o p r i a t e r e s e r v e ? This i s a d i f f i c u l t q u e s t i o n because th e demand f o r UI b e n e f i t s f l u c t u a t e s w id e ly . The flow o f people i n t o t h e UI system i n c r e a s e s 13 dur in g p e r io d s o f r i s i n g unemployment which r a i s e s th e demand f o r benefits. The S t a t e o f Michigan i s a good i l l u s t r a t i o n o f th e s e v e r i t y o f t h e problem. During 1975 and 1976 Michigan faced very high l e v e l s o f unemployment, a t times ap proaching 15%, which n e c e s s i t a t e d t h e borrowing o f $570 m i l l i o n from t h e f e d e r a l lo an fund. A method o f e s t i m a t i n g t h i s demand on t h e s t a t e UI fund would have a s s i s t e d s t a t e p l a n n e r s and lawmakers in a n t i c i p a t i n g t h e problem and a c t i n g to i n c r e a s e t h e fund b a l a n c e . The d r a i n on t h e s t a t e UI fund b a la n c e w i l l a l s o i n c r e a s e when t h e extended b e n e f i t s program i s o p e r a t i n g . Any le n g t h e n i n g o f t h e d u r a t i o n o f time t h a t UI r e c i p i e n t s may draw b e n e f i t s w i ll i n c r e a s e t h e t o t a l amount o f b e n e f i t s p a i d . program The extended b e n e f i t s a c t s a s a 13 week e x t e n s i o n t o t h e r e g u l a r program r a i s i n g t h e maximum b e n e f i t d u r a t i o n t o 39 weeks. I n d i v i d u a l s who have exhausted t h e i r r e g u l a r b e n e f i t s a r e e l i g i b l e t o r e c e i v e b e n e f i t s under t h e extended program. This program may o p e r a t e in e i t h e r a s t a t e o r t h e c o u n tr y as a whole depending on t h e s t a t e o r n a t i o n a l i n s u r e d unemployment r a t e . The in su r ed unemployment r a t e i s e s s e n t i a l l y an unemployment r a t e c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e p o r t i o n o f th e l a b o r f o r c e covered by UI l e g i s l a t i o n . The extended b e n e f i t s program i s a c t i v a t e d through a system o f "on" and " o f f " t r i g g e r s which a r e based on th e s t a t e o r n a t i o n a l i n s u r e d unemployment r a t e . Unlike t h e extended b e n e f i t s program which i s fin a n c e d e q u a l l y from s t a t e and f e d e r a l f u n d s , th e Federal Supplemental B e n e f i t s (FSB) program was fin a nced e n t i r e l y by f e d e r a l f u n d s. The 14 FSB program provided an a d d i t i o n a l 26 week e x t e n s i o n t o t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs r a i s i n g t h e maximum b e n e f i t d u r a t i o n to 65 weeks. The FSB program o p e r a t e d on a s t a t e by s t a t e b a s i s with th e in su r ed unemployment r a t e p r o v id in g t h e i n p u t t o t h e "on" and " o f f " t r i g g e r i n g system. The FSB program d i f f e r e d from t h e extended program in t h a t i t i s n o t a permanent p o r t i o n o f t h e UI system. I t was c r e a t e d by a s p e c i a l a c t o f Congress in 1974 with a r e c e n t a c t re duci ng t h e program t o 13 weeks in March, 1977 and e l i m i n a t i n g th e program in December, 1977. There a r e s e v e r a l a d d i t i o n a l programs in t h e UI system which a r e r e l a t i v e l y small in magnitude compared t o t h e t h r e e major programs j u s t d e s c r i b e d . The S pe cial Unemployment A s s i s t a n c e (SUA) program p rovid e s b e n e f i t s t o unemployed workers who a r e not covered under t h e s t a t e o r f e d e r a l unemployment i n s u r a n c e programs. There a r e a l s o s e v e r a l programs t o cover ex- se r v ic e m e n , f e d e r a l workers and o t h e r s p e c i a l gr ou ps. These programs a r e a l l f e d e r a l l y f in a n ced and u s u a l l y a d m i n i s t e r e d a t t h e s t a t e l e v e l . Problem Statem ent The c u r r e n t unemployment in s u r a n c e system has imposed a s i g n i f i c a n t f i n a n c i a l burden on t h e S t a t e o f Michigan du rin g p e r io d s o f high unemployment. As mentioned e a r l i e r t h e s t a t e was f o rc ed i n t o borrowing $570 m i l l i o n from t h e f e d e r a l loan fund because o f high unemployment l e v e l s dur in g 1975 and 1976. Since t h i s d e b t has t o be r e p a i d t h e r e i s t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t M ic h i g a n 's employer pay­ r o l l t a x may be i n c r e a s e d . The r e s i s t a n c e o f employers to high UI 15 p a y r o l l t a x e s may m a n i f e s t i t s e l f by inducing employers to move to o t h e r s t a t e s o r p r e v e n ti n g p r o s p e c t i v e employers from l o c a t i n g in the s t a t e . The burden o f th e UI system on i n d u s t r i e s in t h e s t a t e a l s o provid e s an i n c e n t i v e t o u t i l i z e l e s s l a b o r i n t e n s i v e produc­ t i o n methods. The f i n a n c i a l burden o f th e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system may in p a r t be a t t r i b u t e d to s e v e r a l i d e n t i f i a b l e weaknesses o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system. ( I n d i s c u s s i n g t h e problems and weaknesses o f t h e c u r r e n t unemployment i n s u r a n c e system a l l r e f e r e n c e s to the c u r r e n t system in c lu d e the r e g u l a r program o p e r a t i n g i n c o n j u n c t i o n with t h e extended program and i t s t r i g g e r i n g mechanism.) The f i r s t weakness o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system i s t h a t i s has a r e l a t i v e l y slow res ponse t o improving economic c o n d i t i o n s . Assuming a r e c i p i e n t has f u l l e n t i t l e m e n t , t h e maximum s t a y in t h e system i s 26 weeks plus an a d d i t i o n a l 13 weeks i f th e extended program i s t r i g g e r e d . Ouring t h i s p e r i o d t h e economy and jo b a v a i l a b i l i t y could have improved s i g n i f i c a n t l y y e t t h e system i s s t i l l p r o v id i n g a maximum o f 26 o r 39 weeks o f s u p p o r t . This problem i s a ggravated by t h e manner in which t h e extended t r i g g e r i n g mechanism works. The t r i g g e r i s based on t h e in su r ed unemployment r a t e which i s e s s e n t i a l l y c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h e number o f r e c i p i e n t s i n t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs by t h e s i z e o f covered employment. When t h e extended program i s o f f then t h e in s u r e d unemployment r a t e i s t h e number o f r e g u l a r r e c i p i e n t s over covered employment s i n c e th e number o f extended r e c i p i e n t s i s 16 zero. I f t h e i n s u r e d unemployment r a t e cau ses th e extended program to o p e r a t e then t h e in s u r e d unemployment r a t e w i ll r i s e due t o the a d d i t i o n o f extended r e c i p i e n t s in t h e numerator. This c r e a t e s a l a t c h i n g e f f e c t s i n c e once the program i s on, i t tends t o remain on. Another problem with t h e c u r r e n t system i s t h a t i t does not pr ovid e a p o s i t i v e means o f f o r c i n g r e c i p i e n t s t o l e a v e th e system dur in g an economic r e c o v e ry . Even though th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f jo bs has i n c r e a s e d , r e c i p i e n t s on t h e system may simply e l e c t to use a l l th e ir entitlem ent. An improvement in th e econonjy does not change th e benefits entitlem ent. This problem i s compounded by th e l a t c h i n g e f f e c t a s s o c i a t e d with t h e extended program t r i g g e r i n g mechanism. The c u r r e n t system does pr ov ide i n c e n t i v e s f o r r e c i p i e n t s to leave and r e t u r n t o work. B e n e f i t l e v e l s which a r e l e s s than former wages and t h e r eq uirem en t t h a t r e c i p i e n t s be a v a i l a b l e and seeking work pro vid e inducements t o r e t u r n t o employment. However th e e f f e c t i v e ­ ness o f t h e s e i n c e n t i v e s depends on the b e havio ral r esp onses o f i n d i v i d u a l s r a t h e r than l i m i t a t i o n s imposed by th e system i t s e l f . An a d d i t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t y with t h e c u r r e n t system i s t h a t i t provide s s t i m u l a t i o n to th e economy a f t e r economic c o n d i t i o n s have improved. This problem stems from t h e slow res ponse o f t h e system and t h e lack o f a mechanism t o remove r e c i p i e n t s from th e system dur in g improving economic c o n d i t i o n s . B e n e f i t s paid t o workers m aintain t h e i r pur ch asing power and provide a s tim u lu s to th e economy. The c u r r e n t system allow s t h i s economic s ti m u l u s to e x i s t dur in g times when i t i s p o t e n t i a l l y unn ecessa ry. 17 F i n a l l y , t h e c u r r e n t system has a l i m i t e d f l e x i b i l i t y to ad ap t i t s e l f to changing economic c o n d i t i o n s . Although t h e c u r r e n t system does vary th e amount o f s u p p o r t f o r unemployed workers in res ponse t o t h e s t a t e o f t h e economy o r jo b a v a i l a b i l i t y , th e d i f f i c u l t y l i e s in t h e manner o f varyin g th e s u p p o r t . The p r e s e n t system a d a p ts i t s e l f by t r i g g e r i n g t h e 13 week extended b e n e f i t s program on o r o f f in res ponse to the in s u r e d unemployment r a t e . This d i s c r e t e or s te p a d a p t a t i o n does not p er m it th e system to respond to in-between c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e economy. An unemployed worker with f u l l e n t i t l e m e n t may r e c e i v e a maximum o f 26 o r 39 weeks o f b e n e f i t s under t h e p r e s e n t system. A p o s s i b l e a l t e r n a t i v e would be to have th e system vary t h e maximum e n t i t l e m e n t from 13 to 39 weeks on a contin uous b a s i s in resp ons e to economic c o n d i t i o n s . The c u r r e n t system makes a v a i l a b l e l a r g e amounts o f s u b s i d i z e d job s earc h and economic s t i m u l a t i o n when only moderate or small amounts may be n e c e s s a r y . The p a r t i c u l a r problem to be i n v e s t i g a t e d concerns th e r e v i s i o n o f t h e c u r r e n t unemployment i n s u r a n c e system. As d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r t h e p r e s e n t UI system o p e r a t e s a s a 26 week program with v a r i o u s e x t e n s io n s ( t h e extended and FSB programs) added t o th e r e g u l a r program du rin g economic downturns. These e x t e n s i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e t o a l l i n d i v i d u a l s e l i g i b l e f o r t h e r e g u l a r program. The r e v i s i o n to t h e e x i s t i n g UI system was proposed in i t s c u r r e n t form 5 by Saul B l a u s t e i n o f t h e Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research. I t c o n s i s t s o f a s t r u c t u r a l change in v o l v i n g 3 programs ( t i e r s ) o f 18 13 weeks each which o p e r a t e a l l th e time p r o v id i n g a maximum o f 39 weeks o f b e n e f i t s ( t h e same as th e c u r r e n t UI program e x c l u s i v e o f federal extensions). The main d i f f e r e n c e with t h e r e v i s e d system i s t h a t more s t r i n g e n t e l i g i b i l i t y re quir em ents would be imposed on i n d i v i d u a l s moving from t h e f i r s t to t h e second t i e r and a l s o from t h e second t o t h e t h i r d t i e r . The main h y p o th e s i s o f i n t e r e s t i s t h a t an a l t e r n a t i v e s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system can be designed t h a t i s an improvement over t h e c u r r e n t s t r u c t u r e . To determine i f t h e proposed s t r u c t u r e f o r th e UI system i s an improvement over the c u r r e n t system some e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a a r e needed. Based on th e o b j e c t i v e s o f t h e UI system t h e fo llowign design o b j e c t i v e and c o n s t r a i n t s were developed t o e v a l u a t e t h e proposed UI system: Design o b j e c t i v e : A new system should respond to changing economic c o n d i t i o n s f a s t e r than t h e c u r r e n t UI system. Design c o n s t r a i n t s : 1. During times o f high unemployment (such as t h e f i r s t t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1975) a new system must pro v id e a t l e a s t t h e same l e v e l o f s u p p o rt as th e c u r r e n t system. 2. The t o t a l c o s t o f a new system o v e r a long p e r i o d o f time i n c l u d i n g per io d s o f high and low unemployment ( i . e . , 1970-1977) should c o s t no more than t h e c u r r e n t system. The desig n o b j e c t i v e r e f l e c t s t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f having an unemployment i n s u r a n c e system t h a t r a p i d l y and c o n t i n u o u s l y adapts i t s e l f t o changing c o n d i t i o n s o f unemployment. Such a system would be a c l o s e r match t o t h e a g g r e g a te need o f t h e unemployed as well as 19 th e need o f t h e economy f o r s t i m u l a t i o n . c o n d i t i o n s , s u p p o r t i s pro vide d as needed. During d e c l i n i n g economic A r a p i d re sp ons e to improving c o n d i t i o n s a s s i s t s in reducing t h e f i n a n c i a l burden o f th e UI system. The f i r s t des ig n c o n s t r a i n t c o n t a i n s an assumption t h a t i n c r e a s i n g t h e amount o f s u p p o r t over what i s provided by t h e c u r r e n t system ( t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs) durin g p e r i o d s o f high unemployment would add l i t t l e to t h e UI s y s t e m 's e f f e c t i v e ­ ness. The a d d i t i o n o f t h e 26 week FSB program a p pears t o be a d e v i a t i o n from an i n s u r a n c e co n cep t t o a long term income m ainte­ nance program. The second des ig n c o n s t r a i n t a d d r e s s e s th e i s s u e o f th e f i n a n c i a l burden o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system. I t i s doubtful i f any system t h a t only r e p l a c e s t h e c u r r e n t system w i l l be p o l i t i ­ c a l l y f e a s i b l e i f i t r e s u l t s in a c o s t i n c r e a s e . This second c o n s t r a i n t assumes t h a t t h e r e v i s e d UI system would be a s ta nd alone replacement f o r t h e c u r r e n t system with no a d d i t i o n a l f u n c t i o n s beyond what t h e c u r r e n t system p r o v id e s . CHAPTER II SIMULATION AS AN APPROACH TO MODELING THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM AND PREVIOUS RESEARCH The Use o f a Sim ulat ion Model One method o f d eter m in in g t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f a r e v i s e d s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system i s t o u t i l i z e s i m u l a t i o n modeling. E xp erim en tation with s im u l a t i o n models o f t h e c u r r e n t and proposed system can provide us efu l i n s i g h t s about t h e r e l a t i v e u t i l i t y o f each system under a v a r i e t y o f economic c o n d i ­ tions. A s i m u l a t i o n model i s an o p e r a t i n g model o f a r e a l system t h a t can r e p l i c a t e t o some d eg r ee th e b e havior o f t h e r e a l system o ver time.® A good model should c a p t u r e t h e im port ant elements and s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f t h e system being modeled w ith o u t being unduly co m pl ica te d o r o v e r l y s i m p l i f i e d . The d eg ree o f cor respon den ce between t h e model and t h e r e a l system depends t o a g r e a t e x t e n t on t h e uses which w i l l be made o f t h e model. A sim ula­ t i o n model in ten d ed to f a i t h f u l l y reprodu ce t h e e f f e c t o f minute i n f l u e n c e s in t h e form o f changes i n i n p u t o r s t r u c t u r e on a l a r g e and complex system would r e q u i r e extreme d e t a i l in c o n s t r u c t i o n , be expensive o r im p o ss ib le t o b u i l d and o p e r a t e , and would s u f f e r from 20 21 d i f f i c u l t y in i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e o u t p u t s . On t h e o t h e r hand a model designed to reproduce g r o s s changes in a small system with few components would be in ex p en s iv e to b u i l d and o p e r a t e but would be unable t o t r a c k t h e e f f e c t o f r e a l i s t i c i n p u t s . A us eful s i m u l a t i o n model should l i e between t h e s e ex tr em es . The d a ta c o l l e c t i o n and a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e d f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a s i m u l a t i o n model o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e system provid e s a l o g i c a l framework f o r d i s c o v e r i n g i n t e r a c t i o n s and p r o c e s s e s . Data t h a t could be used f o r manpower purposes i s c o l l e c t e d and maintained by v a r i o u s s t a t e a g en cies f o r widely d i f f e r i n g rea so ns and i s u s u a l l y not comparable. The a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e d f o r th e modeling e f f o r t a s s i s t s in t h e c o n v e r s io n o f d a ta to a form f a c i l i t a t i n g t h e expo­ s u r e o f r e l a t i o n s h i p s between components o f th e l a b o r f o r c e . Thus th e a c t u a l process o f b u i l d i n g and v a l i d a t i n g th e model r e s u l t s in an i n c r e a s e d knowledge o f th e system. In fo rm at ion about th e system i s a l s o gained by o b s erv in g t h e r e sp o n s e o f t h e model as i t i s o p e r a te d and experimented w i t h . Sim ulat ion models may a i d i n d e c i s i o n making by s e r v i n g as a v e h i c l e f o r e x p e r i m e n t a t io n . In puts and p o l i c i e s to be e v a l u a t e d a r e imposed upon a s i m u l a t i o n model and t h e r e s u l t i n g changes i n t h e s im u late d system a r e o bs erv ed. In t h i s way a l t e r n a t e i n p u t s and p o l i c i e s may be s e l e c t e d a c c o r d i n g to some c r i t e r i o n and implemented in t h e r e a l system with p r e d i c t a b l e r e s u l t s . S im u latio n models a r e p a r t i c u l a r l y us efu l where m a n ip u l a ti o n o f and e x p e r i m e n t a t io n with t h e r e a l system i s im p o ss ib l e o r i m p r a c t i c a l due t o ti m e, c o s t , i n a c c e s s i b i l i t y and p o l i t i c a l o r moral c o n s i d e r a t i o n s . ^ Most o f 22 th e s e c o n s i d e r a t i o n s a r e p r e s e n t t o some degree in manpower systems which would p r eclu d e e x p e r im e n t a tio n with t h e r e a l system as an a i d in d e c i s i o n making. Although a s im u l a t i o n model would be g e n e r a l l y u s e f u l , t h e r e a r e s e v e r a l d i s t i n c t advantages and d is a d v a n ta g e s t o t h e te c h n i q u e . One advantage which has a l r e a d y been mentioned i s t h a t s i m u l a t i o n provides an in s tr u m e n t f o r e x p e r im e n ta t io n in an environment f r e e o f r e a l world c o m p l i c a t i o n s . Another advantage o f s i m u l a t i o n i s t h a t i t allows t h e modeling o f very complex systems. Manpower systems a r e complex and h i g h l y i n t e r r e l a t e d with o t h e r a r e a s such as the economic system. Sim ulation a l s o al lows t h e time involved to be speeded up o r slowed down. The e n t i r e time h o riz on o f t h e model which could be many y e a r s i s a v a i l a b l e in th e time needed f o r one computer run (assuming a computer s i m u l a t i o n ) . There a r e a l s o s e v e r a l d is a d v a n ta g e s t o using s im u l a t i o n models. One i s t h a t each s i m u l a t i o n run y i e l d s s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s f o r t h e given model i n p u t s . In o t h e r words many model runs may be needed with varying i n p u t s and par am eter s b e f o r e t h e r e s u l t s can be g e n e r a l i z e d t o t h e r e a l system. Another d i s a d v a n ta g e o f s im u l a t i o n i s , compared to o t h e r a p p r o a c h e s , a g r e a t e r e f f o r t i s r e q u i r e d in c o n s t r u c t i n g and v a l i d a t i n g th e model. S im ulation models a l s o s u f f e r from th e danger o f c o n f u sin g t h e model with r e a l i t y . Outputs and r esp onses t h a t ap pea r t o be r e a l i s t i c make i t easy to f o r g e t th e l i m i t a t i o n s o f th e model. This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e i f th e 23 model has been poo r ly v a l i d a t e d . V a l i d a t i o n r e f e r s t o th e e x t e n t o f t h e co rre spondence between th e model and the system being modeled. A model t h a t has been v a l i d a t e d f o r one s i t u a t i o n could e a s i l y be a p p l i e d t o a n o th e r s i t u a t i o n where t h e r e i s l i t t l e cor respondence between t h e beh av ior o f th e model and t h e r eal g system. Besides s im u l a t i o n t h e r e ar e s e v e r a l o t h e r approaches which could be used to s a t i s f y t h e need f o r an experimental and p r e d i c t i v e tool. These a r e q u a l i t a t i v e t e c h n i q u e s , time s e r i e s a n a l y s i s and g causal models. Q u a l i t a t i v e tec h n iq u e s r e l y to a g r e a t e x t e n t on human judgment and may c o n s i s t o f committees of people and s t a f f a n a l y s t s as s ig n e d to r e s e a r c h c e r t a i n UI and l a b o r f o r c e r e l a t e d problems and p r e d i c t f u t u r e s t a t e s o f t h e system. Such te chniques r e a d i l y permit t h e d i s c o v e r y and i n p u t o f p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s b u t t h e p r e d i c t i v e o u t p u t s a r e gen er al in n a t u r e and l a c k t h e q u a n t i ­ t i v e form o f t e n needed f o r manpower plann ing purp os es . Time s e r i e s a n a l y s i s such as ex ponenti al smoothing o f f e r s good f o r e c a s t i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s but no a b i l i t y t o handle p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s in an experimental framework. Experimental i n p u t s in t h e form o f s t r u c t u r a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e system a r e d i f f i c u l t , i f not i m p o ss ib l e , t o impose on time s e r i e s models. Time s e r i e s a n a l y s i s a l s o s u f f e r s from t h e f a c t t h a t in some manpower a r e a s t h e r e i s l i t t l e o r no h i s t o r i c a l d a t a with which t o develop f o r e ­ castin g equations. 24 A causal model such as l e a s t s q u a re r e g r e s s i o n i s a nother t e c h n iq u e t h a t i s comparable t o s im u l a t i o n i n i t s u s e f u l n e s s in p r ovid ing a p r e d i c t i v e t o o l . Techniques such as r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s y i e l d q u a n t i t a t i v e o u t p u t s and can a l s o be u s efu l in experimenting with p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . As with time s e r i e s models, th e d isa d v a n ­ ta g e o f causal models i s t h a t t h e r e i s no s t r u c t u r a l s i m i l a r i t y to th e system under c o n s i d e r a t i o n . This makes i t more d i f f i c u l t t o dete rm ine t h e form o f p o l i c y in p u ts p a r t i c u l a r l y when such in pu ts a r e r e l a t e d to th e s t r u c t u r e o f th e system. This d i s c u s s i o n does not mean to imply t h a t t h e s e o t h e r approaches cannot be used in c o n j u n c t i o n with s im u l a t i o n modeling. C e r t a i n l y t h e use o f a s i m u l a t i o n model r e q u i r e s q u a l i t a t i v e j u d g ­ ment in determ ining in p u t s and i n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f r e s u l t s . Regres­ s i o n a n a l y s i s i s well s u i t e d t o pr o v id in g f o r e c a s t e d exogenous i n p u t s and parameters f o r s i m u l a t i o n models as well as co nver si on o f c e r t a i n model o u tp u ts to d i f f e r e n t forms. These tec h n i q u e s can a s s i s t in t h e development o f a s i m u l a t i o n model as well as enhance v a r io u s a p p l i c a t i o n s . A National Labor Force Model To gain an i n s i g h t i n t o o t h e r r e s e a r c h a c t i v i t i e s i t w i ll be h elpful to review two s i m u l a t i o n s t u d i e s o f l a b o r f o r c e components comparable t o t h e Michigan manpower s i m u l a t i o n model which i s t h e basis for th is th e s is . Although th e Michigan model w ill be d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l l a t e r , comparisons w i l l be drawn t o a s s i s t in in t r o d u c i n g t h e model and t o p la c e i t in c o n t e x t with o t h e r r e s e a r c h . 25 The f i r s t i s a s i m u l a t i o n model o f t h e demographic composi­ t i o n o f employment, unemployment and t h e nonlabor f o r c e f o r th e co u n tr y as a whole. This model s im u l a t e s t h e s i x p o s s i b l e flows between t h e s e t h r e e s tock c a t e g o r i e s f o r s i x t e e n demographic groups. For each demographic or a g e - r a c e - s e x group, t h e monthly flow from one l a b o r f o r c e s to ck t o a n o t h e r i s t h e produ ct o f a t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t y and th e s i z e o f t h e s to c k from which t h e flow o r i g i n a t e s . The t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s o r parameters o f t h i s model a r e func­ t i o n s o f exogenous v a r i a b l e s such as i n d i c e s o f l a b o r market t i g h t ­ n e s s , time t r e n d s and seasonal f a c t o r s . The f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p o f t h e s e parameters with t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e was e s ti m a te d using r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s on unpublished U.S. gr os s flow d a t a c o l l e c t e d by t h e C u rrent Populati on Survey. This g r o s s flow d a t a c o n t a i n s h i s t o r i c a l e s ti m a t e s o f t h e s to c k s and r e l a t e d flows f o r demographic groups in th e n a t i o n ' s p o p u l a t i o n . ^ This b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n p r e s e n t s t h e general n a t u r e o f t h i s model b u t t h e r e a d e r should c o n s u l t r e f e r e n c e (10) i f a more comprehensive d i s c u s s i o n i s d e s i r e d . There a r e s evera l noteworthy d i f f e r e n c e s between t h i s model and t h e Michigan manpower s im u l a t i o n model. The model j u s t d e s c r i b e d focuses on demographic breakdown o f t h e n a t i o n a l popula­ t i o n whereas t h e Michigan model s im u l a t e s t h e a g g r e g a t e o f t h e s t a t e labor force. The lack o f s t a t e le v e l demographic d a t a has precluded t h e development o f a model c a p a b le o f s i m u l a t i n g demo­ grap hic components. Another im port an t d i f f e r e n c e b e s id e s t h e demographic breakdown i s t h a t t h e n a t i o n a l model s im u l a t e s the 26 l e v e l s o f th e p o p u la tio n c o n s i s t i n g o f t h e c a t e g o r i e s o f employment, unemployment and nonlabor f o r c e . The Michigan model s im u la te s th e s t a t e l a b o r f o r c e c o n s i s t i n g o f t h e c a t e g o r y o f employment and a r e f i n e d breakdown o f th e c a t e g o r y o f unemployment. The s to c k o f unemployment i s modeled as t h r e e s to c k s which a r e unemployment i n s u r a n c e , employable w e l f a r e and a r e s i d u a l s to ck o f i n d i v i d u a l s w i th o u t b e n e f i t s . The modeling o f t h e unemployment c a t e g o r y as t h r e e s to c k s p ermits a more a c c u r a t e assignment o f t h e c o s t o f unemployment to th e s t a t e . Both o f t h e s e models a r e s i m i l a r in t h a t they model stock c a t e g o r i e s and th e flows which g iv e r i s e to th e changes in th e s to ck c a t e g o r i e s . and flow v a r i a b l e s . However th ey d i f f e r in t h e i r t r e a t m e n t o f s to c k The n a t i o n a l model t r e a t s s to c k and flow v a r i a b l e s on a d i s c r e t e b a s i s . This means t h a t t h e model s to c k s w i l l be updated a t d i s c r e t e i n t e r v a l s o f time with flow v a r i a b l e s t h a t r e p r e s e n t th e accumulated flow ov er th e time i n t e r v a l . In o t h e r words th e model changes s t a t e only a t c e r t a i n tim e s. This i s d i f f e r e n t from th e approach used in th e Michigan model. Here t h e s to c k and flow v a r i a b l e s a r e r e l a t e d t o each o t h e r on a c on tinuou s b a s i s w it h th e flow v a r i a b l e s c o n t i n u a l l y changing t h e s to c k v a r i a b l e s . Another major d i f f e r e n c e between t h e model o f t h e n a t i o n a l l a b o r f o r c e and t h e Michigan model i s in th e a r e a o f major e x t e r n a l o r exogenous v a r i a b l e s . Both models use c e r t a i n exogenous v a r i a b l e s as independent v a r i a b l e s in e q u a t i o n s y i e l d i n g v a lu e s f o r th e model 27 par am et er s. However major s to c k and flow v a r i a b l e s which a r e exogen­ ous In one model a r e g e n e r a t e d endogenously in th e o t h e r . For example in th e n a t i o n a l model th e p o p u l a t i o n and t h e a g g r e g a t e job stock (employment plus job v a c a n i e s ) a r e fed i n t o t h e model as a time series. This means t h a t only th e remaining s to ck o f unemployment is g en er ate d endogenously. The e f f e c t i s t h a t p o s s i b l e e r r o r s in th e s to c k s o f p o p u la tio n o r jo b s due to i n a c c u r a c i e s in flow v a r i a b l e s a r e r e s e t to zer o a t each update o f th e model. a l l s to c k v a r i a b l e s a r e g e n e r a te d endogenously. ous flow v a r i a b l e s : In th e Michigan model There a r e two exogen­ th e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e l a b o r f o r c e and r a t e e n t e r i n g th e unemployment i n su r a n c e system. Using t h e s e two exogenous flow s, t h e model t r a c e s t h e be h a v io r over time o f a l l s to c k v a r i a b l e s and a l l endogenous flow v a r i a b l e s . A Markov Unemployment I n su r an ce Model The second stu d y t o be reviewed i s a Markov model o f th e 26 week r e g u l a r unemployment i n s u r a n c e program in D e t r o i t , Michigan. This i s a s t o c h a s t i c model t h a t b e a r s l i t t l e resemblance to th e s to c k and flow s t r u c t u r e o f th e Michigan model. I t i s in clu d ed in t h i s review because i s may be th e only o t h e r s i m u l a t i o n model r e l a t e d t o M ic higan's unemployment in s u r a n c e system. Also t h i s w i l l help to i n t r o d u c e th e r e a d e r to th e modeling o f unemployment insurance v a ria b le s . The model b a s i c a l l y c o n s i s t s o f 26 cas caded Markov t r a n s i ­ t i o n m a t r i c e s with t h r e e o r i g i n and t h r e e d e s t i n a t i o n s t a t e s . The 26 t r a n s i t i o n m a t r i c e s r e p r e s e n t t h e p o s s i b l e 26 week d u r a t i o n o f 28 r e g u l a r unemployment in su r an ce b e n e f i t s . For any week t ( t = 1, 2, . . . 26) t h e r e a r e t h r e e d e s t i n a t i o n s t a t e s : (1) make a n o t h e r UI cla im and remain in t h e system, (2) r e t u r n t o employment and (3) ex hau st b e n e f i t s . There i s r e a l l y only one o r i g i n s t a t e and t h a t i s making a n o t h e r UI c la i m . For t h i s re a s o n th e t r a n s i t i o n m atri x f o r any week t w i l l have e i t h e r two rows o r two columns o f zer oes depending on which a x i s i s o r i g i n o r d e s t i n a t i o n . By m u l t i p l y i n g th e s u c c e s s i v e t r a n s i t i o n m a t r i c e s t o g e t h e r f o r week t - i to week t th e i - s t e p t r a n s i t i o n m a tr i x f o r i n d i v i d u a l s s t a r t ­ ing in week t - i i s g e n e r a t e d . This t r a n s i t i o n m a tr i x can be m u l t i p l i e d by a v e c t o r o f t h e number o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n t h e t h r e e o r i g i n s t a t e s t o de term in e th e number o f i n d i v i d u a l s in th e d e s t i n a ­ t i o n s t a t e s a f t e r t h e i - week p e r i o d . ^ This i s a ver y s i m p l i f i e d view o f th e process used t o model t h e p r o g r e s s i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s through the unemployment in su r an ce system. The r e a d e r should r e f e r t o r e f e r e n c e (11) f o r a complete d i s c u s s i o n o f t h i s model and i t s development. The Markov s t r u c t u r e o f t h i s model does not t r e a t t h e flows o f people in th e UI system e x p l i c i t l y . Although t h i s model does a good jo b o f p r e d i c t i o n , th e absence o f e x p l i c i t flow v a r i a b l e s would make i t d i f f i c u l t to i n t e r f a c e t h i s model with o t h e r models o f components o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e system u n l e s s th ey were a l s o Markov models. The c r e a t i o n and v a l i d a t i o n o f a Markov model o f th e employment o r p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e s e c t o r would be a d i f f i c u l t t a s k and r e q u i r e d e t a i l e d d a ta which i s c u r r e n t l y not a v a i l a b l e i n t h e s e 29 areas. The Markov UI model a l s o r e q u i r e s f a i r l y s o p h i s t i c a t e d e s t i m a t i o n te c h n iq u e s f o r th e t r a n s i t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s . Urban Dynamics The two s im u l a t i o n s t u d i e s j u s t reviewed and t h e Michigan model a r e s i m i l a r in t h e i r a t te m p t s to model t h e dynamic be hav ior o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e o r components o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e . These s t u d i e s l i m i t themselves t o l a b o r f o r c e v a r i a b l e s which a r e well d e f i n e d and u s u a l l y o b s e r v a b l e . A c o n s i d e r a b l y d i f f e r e n t approach has been s e t f o r t h in Urban Dynamics 12 by Jay W. F o r r e s t e r . This study i s much broad er i n scope s i n c e i t models an e n t i r e s o c ia l system and in c l u d e s many v a r i a b l e s not d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o l a b o r f o r c e b e h a v io r . The model d e p i c t s th e i n t e r a c t i o n o f h ous in g, b u s in e s s e n t e r p r i s e and s o c i a l v a r i a b l e s t o produce th e growth, d e c l i n e , and s t a g n a t i o n of a c ity . Many assumptions a r e made about t h e s e urban components in l c u d i n g t h e i r s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s and e f f e c t on one an o th e r t o b u i l d the model. The s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s p r o v id e a view o f th e dynamic be h a v io r o f t h e s e components. There a r e s evera l im p o rtan t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e Michigan model and th e Urban Dynamics model. The Urban Dynamics model g e n e r a t e s th e value s o f a l l model v a r i a b l e s endogenously. Other than d i s t u r b a n c e o r t e s t i n p u t s , t h e r e a r e no o u t s i d e i n f l u e n c e s on t h e model v a r i a b l e s or p a r a m e t e rs . In th e Michigan model, h i s t o r i c a l time s e r i e s d a t a i s used t o d r i v e t h e model. This means t h a t o p e r a t i n g t h e model i n f u t u r e time p e r i o d s r e q u i r e s f o r e c a s t s o f c e r t a i n exogenous v a r i a b l e s . 30 Another d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s e models i s t h e time horiz on involved. The Michigan model has a time hor izon o f 13 y e a r s with t h e l a s t 5 y e a r s being an e x t e n s io n i n t o th e f u t u r e . Time spans o f t h i s magnitude a r e s u i t e d to t e s t i n g and un d e r sta n d in g t h e i m p l i c a ­ t i o n s o f r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t range p o l i c y and l e g i s l a t i v e changes . The Urban Dynamics model extends to a maximum o f 250 y e a r s i n t o t h e future. This time span provide s a long term view o f t h e be hav ior o f th e e x i s t i n g system and any s t r u c t u r a l changes imposed on i t . The d i f f e r e n c e in time horiz on s o f t h e s e two models r e f l e c t s a d i f f e r e n c e in t h e i r intend ed u s e s . The Michigan model was designed to p r e d i c t s p e c i f i c value s o f l a b o r f o r c e v a r i a b l e s in th e model in r es ponse to p o l i c y changes. The Urban Dynamics model was de signed to pro v id e a long term view o f t h e res ponse p a t t e r n s and r e l a t i o n ­ s h ip s between components o f an urban system. The r e a l v alu e o f t h e method used in th e Urban Dynamics model l i e s in p r ovid ing a l o g i c a l framework t o view th e e f f e c t o f th e s t r u c t u r a l r e l a t i o n s h i p s in an urban system. The Urban Dynamics approach can lead to a g r e a t e r un d e r sta n d in g o f t h e f o r c e s t h a t i n f l u e n c e urban systems and t h e manpower i m p l i c a t i o n s o f th o s e forces. The r e a d e r may wish to c o n s u l t r e f e r e n c e (13) f o r f u r t h e r d i s c u s s i o n along t h e s e l i n e s . CHAPTER III SIMULATION MODEL OF THE CURRENT MICHIGAN MANPOWER SYSTEM Model D e s c r i p t i o n The s im u l a t i o n model which has been developed f o r use as an experimental tool i s o f t h e continu ous flow v a r i e t y in which changes in t h e flows i n t o and o u t o f a s to c k ca te g o r y produce changes in t h e magnitude o f t h a t s t o c k . A continuous flow model i s one in which t h e flows a r e continuous over time r a t h e r than d i s c r e t e . 14 For example a monthly flows may be t r e a t e d as a d a i l y o r hourly flow i n a continuous flow model. In a d i s c r e t e model a monthly flow would allo w changes in th e s t o c k s o f th e model to occur only a t monthly i n t e r v a l s . The continuo us modeling o f flows perm its t h e use o f a ty p e o f d e l a y f u n c t i o n , c a l l e d a d i s t r i b u t e d d e l a y , which i s a r e a l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f many ty pes o f a g g r e g a te d elay phenomena. There a r e f i v e s to c k c a t e g o r i e s in th e model. They a r e la b o r f o r c e , employment, unemployment in s u r a n c e , employable w e l f a r e c l i e n t s ( th o s e de f i n e d as t h e l a b o r f o r c e ) , and unemployed i n d i v i ­ d u a ls w i th o u t b e n e f i t s ( h e r e a f t e r r e f e r r e d t o as th e WOB c a t e g o r y ) . Unemployment i n s u r a n c e , employable w e l f a r e and t h e WOB c a t e g o r i e s r e p r e s e n t a r e f i n e d breakdown o f t h e l e v e l o f unemployment 31 32 which i s not t r e a t e d e x p l i c i t l y i n t h i s model. Since s t a t i s t i c s a r e n o t kept on t h e WOB c a t e g o r y i t i s t r e a t e d as a r e s i d u a l s tock in t h e model. I t i s determined by s u b t r a c t i n g from t h e l a b o r f o r c e th e sum o f employment, unemployment in su r an ce and employable w e l f a r e . A s i m p l i f i e d view o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e model i s p r e s e n te d in Appendix A. The f i v e s to ck c a t e g o r i e s a r e shown as well as t h e p o s s i b l e flows between them ( r e p r e s e n t e d by a r r o w s ) . Note t h a t a flow i n t o t h e l a b o r f o r c e must i n c r e a s e one o r more o f t h e s to c k s com prising t h e l a b o r f o r c e . S i m i l a r l y a flow from one o r more o f t h e component c a t e g o r i e s t o t h e nonlabor f o r c e w i l l d e c r e a s e t h e s iz e o f the labor fo rce. I t i s a l s o p o s s i b l e f o r flows t o occur between any o f t h e s to c k s com prising t h e l a b o r f o r c e . Thus migra ­ t i o n may occur between t h e c a t e g o r i e s o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e w ith o u t changing t h e s i z e o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e . Before d i s c u s s i n g in d e t a i l t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e model and th e model diagram which appe ar s i n Appendix B i t would be usefu l to review some o f t h e symbolism and n o t a t i o n used in t h e diagram. It i s recommended t h a t t h e r e a d e r become f a m i l i a r with th e c o n t e n t s o f t h e app en dice s t o avoid q u e s ti o n s con ce rn ing a b b r e v i a t i o n s and parameter symbols. To avoid co n f u sio n t h e r e a d e r should note t h a t t h e terms r a t e and flow a r e used synonymously as a r e th e terms s to ck and l e v e l . Table 1 p r e s e n t s a l i s t i n g o f a l l o f t h e model v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r c orre s po ndin g d e s c r i p t i o n . The t a b l e found in Appendix C p r e s e n t s t h e symbols used in t h e model and t h e e q u i v a l e n t mathematical o p e r a t i o n . Appendix D p r e s e n t s a l i s t i n g o f a l l th e 33 TABLE 1 . —Model V a r ia b le s and D e s c r i p t i o n . s s s s a a s s B s s E B a s s s b S ^ ^ s s C s s s s s x s s s s s s s n c s s q n s s s s a a s s a s ^ s S B LF: l e v e l of labor force E: le v e l o f employment U: l e v e l o f unemployment UI: lev el WOB: le v e l A s s a B s s s a s s s B o f unemployment i n su r a n c e o f w it h o u t b e n e f i t s c a t e g o r y ADCR: level o f ADC r e g u l a r program ( i n l a b o r f o r c e ) ADCU: l e v e l o f ADC f o r unemployed f a t h e r s program ( i n l a b o r force GA: level o f general a s s i s t a n c e program ( i n l a b o r f o r c e ) PA: le v e l o f t o t a l p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e (sum o f ADCR, ADCU and GA) REG: level o f r e g u l a r unemployment i n s u r a n c e program EXT: lev el o f extended unemployment i n s u r a n c e program FSB: lev el o f FSB unemployment i n s u r a n c e program UIEXRE: r a t e o f UI ex h a u s te e s e n t e r i n g employment UILVRE: r a t e o f UI l e a v e r s e n t e r i n g employment ERNLF: r a t e l e a v i n g employment and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e NLFRE: r a t e l e a v i n g non l a b o r f o r c e and e n t e r i n g employment PARE: r a t e l e a v i n g p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g employment ERPA: r a t e l e a v i n g employment and e n t e r i n g p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e ERUI: r a t e l e a v i n g employment and e n t e r i n g unemployment insurance WOBRE: ERWOB: ENET: r a t e l e a v i n g WOB and e n t e r i n g employment r a t e l e a v i n g employment and e n t e r i n g WOB n e t r a t e o f employment change 34 TABLE 1 .-- C o n tin u e d WOBRNLF: NLFR: r a t e l e a v in g WOB and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e r a te entering labor force UIEXRNLF: r a t e o f UI e x h a u s te e s e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e UILVRNLF: r a t e o f UI l e a v e r s e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e PARNLF: r a t e l e a v i n g p u b l ic a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r force LFNET: n e t r a t e o f l a b o r f o r c e change UIEXR: r a t e ex h au s tin g UI UILVR: r a t e le a v i n g UI NLFRADCR: r a t e l e a v i n g non l a b o r f o r c e and e n t e r i n g ADCR NLFRADCU: r a t e l e a v i n g non l a b o r f o r c e and e n t e r i n g ADCU ERGA: r a t e l e a v i n g employment and e n t e r i n g general a s s i s t a n c e WOBRADCR: r a t e l e a v i n g WOB and e n t e r i n g ADCR WOBRADCU: r a t e l e a v i n g WOB and e n t e r i n g ADCU WOBRGA: r a t e l e a v i n g WOB and e n t e r i n g general a s s i s t a n c e NLFRUI: r a t e l e a v i n g non l a b o r f o r c e and e n t e r i n g unemployment insurance WOBRUI: r a t e l e a v i n g WOB and e n t e r i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e RUI: PARUI: r a t e e n t e r i n g unemployment i n su r a n c e r a t e l e a v i n g p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g unemployment in s u r a n c e ADCRRNLF: r a t e l e a v i n g ADCR and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e ADCRE: r a t e l e a v in g ADCR and e n t e r i n g employment ADCRRUI: r a t e l e a v i n g ADCR and e n t e r i n g unemployment i n s u r a n c e ADCRRWOB: ADCRNET: r a t e l e a v i n g ADCR and e n t e r i n g WOB n e t r a t e o f ADCR change 35 TABLE 1 . — Continued UILVRADCR: r a t e o f UI l e a v e r s e n t e r i n g ADCR UIEXRADCR: r a t e o f UI ex h au s tees e n t e r i n g ADCR ADCURNLF: ADCURE: ADCURUI: ADCURWOB: ADCUNET: r a t e le a v i n g ADCU and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r f o r c e r a t e l e a v i n g ADCU and e n t e r i n g employment r a t e l e a v i n g ADCU and e n t e r i n g unemployment i n su r a n c e r a t e l e a v in g ADCU and e n t e r i n g WOB n e t r a t e o f ADCU change UILVRADCU: r a t e o f UI l e a v e r s e n t e r i n g ADCU UIEXRADCU: r a t e o f UI ex h au s te es e n t e r i n g ADCU GARNLF: GARE: GARUI: GARWOB: GANET: r a t e l e a v i n g gener al a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g non l a b o r force r a t e l e a v in g general a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g employment r a t e l e a v i n g general a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g unemploy­ ment i n s u r a n c e r a t e l e a v i n g ge ner al a s s i s t a n c e and e n t e r i n g WOB n e t r a t e o f gen er al a s s i s t a n c e change UILVRGA: r a t e o f UI l e a v e r s e n t e r i n g ge ner al a s s i s t a n c e UIEXRGA: r a t e o f UI ex h a u s t e e s e n t e r i n g gen er al a s s i s t a n c e RREGA: r a t e e n t e r i n g r e g u l a r UI program (A d elay blo ck ) REGAR: r a t e le a v i n g A d e l a y block RREGB: r a t e e n t e r i n g B d ela y block REGBR: r a t e l e a v i n g B d e l a y block REXT: EXTR: r a t e e n t e r i n g extended UI program r a t e le a v i n g extended UI program ( n o t EXT l e a v e r s ) RFSB: r a t e e n t e r i n g FSB UI program FSBR: r a t e l e a v in g FSB UI program ( n o t FSB l e a v e r s ) 36 TABLE 1 . —Continued RE6LVR: r a t e le a v i n g r e g u l a r UI program REGEXR: r a t e exhaus ting r e g u l a r UI program EXTLVR: r a t e l e a v i n g extended UI program EXTEXR: r a t e e x h a u s tin g extended UI program FSBLVR: r a t e le a v in g FSB UI program FSBEXR: r a t e e x h a u s tin g FSB UI program EREXT: r a t e le a v i n g employment and r e e n t e r i n g extended UI program ERFSB: r a t e l e a v i n g employment and r e e n t e r i n g FSB UI program 37 m u l t i p l i e r parameters used in t h e model and t h e corre spon ding equations. By r e f e r r i n g t o th e model diagram (Appendix B) i t may be seen t h a t t h e l e v e l s o f l a b o r f o r c e , employment, ADCR, ADCU and gener al a s s i s t a n c e (GA) a r e modeled by i n t e g r a t i n g over time th e n e t flow i n t o t h e c a t e g o r y . Note t h a t t h e employable w e l f a r e c a t e g o r y i s modeled by i t s t h r e e components: ADCR, ADCU and GA. This was n eces sar y because w e l f a r e d a t a i s mai nta ined a c cording to t h r e e programs (ADCR, ADCU and GA). The n e t flow f o r t h e s e f i v e c a t e g o r i e s is c a l c u l a t e d by summing a l l o f th e flows i n t o and out o f each c a t e g o r y . In g e n e r a l , flows o u t o f a c a t e g o r y a r e produced by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e l e v e l o r s to c k by a parameter v a l u e . Flows i n t o a s to c k r e s u l t from flows l e a v i n g o t h e r s t o c k s with t h e exception t h a t m i g r a t i o n d i r e c t l y between t h e t h r e e c l a s s e s o f w e l f a r e i s n ot p e r m i t t e d . As an example, ERGA i s th e flow o f i n d i v i d u a l s who le a v e employment and go t o t h e gener al a s s i s t a n c e c a t e g o r y o f w elfare. ERGA i s g en er ate d by m u l t i p l y in g t h e l e v e l o f employment by t h e parameter tt17C. ERGA then s u b t r a c t s from t h e n e t flow i n t o employment and adds t o th e n e t flow i n t o gener al a s s i s t a n c e . The pr eceding was an example o f a flow l e a v i n g one s tock and adding t o a n o t h e r . Flows t h a t l e a v e a c a t e g o r y t o go o u t o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e w ill s im ultaneuous ly d e c r e a s e t h a t c a t e g o r y and the la b o r f o r c e . For example, GARNLF i s th e flow o f i n d i v i d u a l s who l e a v e general a s s i s t a n c e t o go out o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e . GARNLF i s produced by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e l e v e l o f gener al a s s i s t a n c e by tt18C. 38 GARNLF i s s u b t r a c t e d from th e n e t flows o f both gen er al a s s i s t a n c e and t h e l a b o r f o r c e . In a s i m i l a r manner, flows from t h e non l a b o r f o r c e to a s to ck w i t h i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e w i l l s im u lta n e o u s ly i n c r e a s e t h e s i z e o f t h e s to ck and t h e l a b o r f o r c e . There i s a s l i g h t d i f f e r e n c e he r e because t h e flow i n t o t h e l a b o r f o r c e (NLRF) begins as a t o t a l flow and i s d iv id e d up by t h e model parameters to flows which add to each o f th e l a b o r f o r c e c a t e g o r i e s . Since t h e WOB s to ck i s c a l c u l a t e d as a r e s i d u a l , flows i n t o t h e WOB le v e l a r e t r e a t e d somewhat d i f f e r e n t l y . The WOB s toc k i s accounted f o r by s u b t r a c t i n g from t h e l a b o r f o r c e t h e sum of t h e w e l f a r e s t o c k s , unemployment i n s u r a n c e and employment. This means t h a t a flow i n t o th e WOB c a t e g o r y can be produced by g e n e r a t ­ ing a flow o u t o f a n o t h e r c a te g o r y and only s u b t r a c t i n g t h a t flow from t h a t c a t e g o r y . To c l a r i f y t h i s , an example may be h e l p f u l . Consider th e flow o f i n d i v i d u a l s from employment to t h e WOB c a t e g o r y . This flow (ERWOB) i s produced by m u l t i p l y in g t h e le v e l o f employment by tt14. Note t h a t ERWOB only s u b t r a c t s from t h e n e t flow i n t o employment and does not go d i r e c t l y to th e WOB s to c k . Since employ­ ment has d ec rea se d and t h e l a b o r f o r c e , p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e and unemployment i n s u r a n c e a r e unchanged, t h e WOB le v e l w i l l i n c r e a s e . Flows o u t o f t h e WOB s to c k a r e t r e a t e d in th e same manner with such flows i n c r e a s i n g th e s i z e o f o t h e r s to c k s ( ex cep t t h e l a b o r f o r c e ) which d e c r e a s e s t h e WOB s to c k v i a t h e s u b t r a c t i o n p r o c e s s . The r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e unemployment in s u r a n c e system i s somewhat d i f f e r e n t from t h e i n t e g r a t i o n approach used elsewhere 39 in t h e model. Since i n d i v i d u a l s e n t e r i n g t h e UI system have a known maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t e n t i t l e m e n t , i t was l o g i c a l to model t h e UI system with d e l a y f u n c t i o n s . The r a t e e n t e r i n g each program i s delayed f o r a time per iod approximating th e mean l e n g t h o f time r e c i p i e n t s s t a y in th e program. The l e v e l o f r e c i p i e n t s i n each program i s accounted f o r by i n t e g r a t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between th e r a t e e n t e r i n g and t h e r a t e l e a v i n g t h e d elay f u n c t i o n r e p r e s e n t i n g each program. The d e la y f u n c t io n s used t o r e p r e s e n t th e UI system a r e called d is tr ib u te d delays. 15 The term d i s t r i b u t e d r e f e r s to t h e pr o p e r ty o f d i s t r i b u t i n g t h e o u t p u t r a t e about th e mean time d e la y of the function. For example, th e res ponse o f a d i s t r i b u t e d d e la y to a s p i k e i n p u t r a t e a t time zero would be an o u t p u t r a t e having an appr oximately symmetric, b e l l shaped curv e with i t s mode a t t h e mean time d e l a y o f t h e f u n c t i o n . This type o f d e l a y i s a p p r o p r i a t e in modeling t h e a g g r e g a te re sp on se o f UI programs because UI r e c i p i e n t s e n t e r t h e system with vary ing e n t i t l e m e n t p e r i o d s . The d e l a y f u n c t i o n s in th e model a l s o have th e p r o p e r t y t h a t th ey a r e flow c o n s e r v in g . This means t h a t whatever i s i n p u t t o t h e d ela y w i l l e v e n t u a l l y come o u t . In o t h e r words, flows a r e not c r e a t e d or l o s t durin g t h e d elay o p e r a t i o n . The d e l a y f u n c t i o n s a r e com­ p l e t e l y s p e c i f i e d by two p a ram eters , t h e mean time o f t h e d e l a y and t h e o r d e r o f th e d e l a y . The o r d e r o f t h e d e l a y s p e c i f i e s t h e shape o f t h e o u t p u t resp on se ( to a h y p o t h e t i c a l s pik e i n p u t ) , t h e h i g h e r t h e o r d e r t h e more peaked th e resp o n s e. 40 The r e g u l a r UI program i s modeled using two d e l a y f u n c t i o n s , RE6A and REGB. Two d e l a y f u n c t i o n s were used because a l a r g e pe r c e n ta g e o f r e g u l a r UI e n t r a n t s w ill le a v e to r e t u r n to work r a t h e r than ex hau st t h e i r b e n e f i t s . through t h e REGA d e l a y . All r e g u l a r e n t r a n t s pass The o u t p u t o f t h i s d e la y i s d iv id e d up i n t o two flo w s, one o f which r e p r e s e n t s t h o s e l e a v in g and t h e o t h e r r e p r e s e n t s th o s e who w ill e x h a u s t . u22A de termines the p o r t i o n o f t h e flow who le a v e and tt22B det er m in es the p o r t i o n o f t h e flow who e n t e r t h e REGB d e l a y and e x h a u s t . The o u t p u t o f t h e REGB del ay i s t h e ex h au s tio n r a t e f o r t h e r e g u l a r program. When t h e extended UI program i s o p e r a t i n g , th e r e g u l a r ex h au s tio n r a t e becomes a p o r t i o n o f th e r a t e e n t e r i n g th e extended d e l a y . Only one d e l a y f u n c t i o n was used t o r e p r e s e n t t h e extended UI program. The o u t p u t r a t e o f t h i s d e la y i s d iv id e d up by th e parameters IT23A, n23B and II23C to g e n e r a t e t h e l e a v in g r a t e , e x h a u s t ­ ing r a t e , and r e e n t e r i n g r a t e . In r e a l i t y r e c i p i e n t s who l e a v e th e extended program w ill do so b e f o r e th e y e x h a u s t . The use o f one d e l a y r a t h e r than two d e l a y s as i n t h e r e g u l a r program caus es th e mean d e l a y o f l e a v e r s and e x h a u s te e s to be th e same. However, th e extended l e a v i n g r a t e (EXTLVR) i s small in comparison with th e r e g u l a r l e a v in g r a t e (REGLVR) so t h e e f f e c t on t h e t o t a l system o f t h e timing e r r o r o f EXTLVR i s s m a l l . This e r r o r i s a l s o minimized by t h e use o f a d i s t r i b u t e d d e la y with i t s mean d e l a y s e t between e s t i m a t e s o f a c t u a l l e a v in g and e x h a u s tio n d e l a y tim e. Note t h a t th e extended r e e n t e r i n g r a t e (EREXT) i s a f u n c t i o n o f th e o u t p u t 41 r a t e o f t h e extended UI d elay so t h a t r e e n t r a n t s w i l l be g en er ated only when t h e program i s o p e r a t i n g . The FSB program o p e r a t e s (when on) i n a s i m i l a r manner to th e extended program with th e r a t e ex h au s tin g t h e extended program becoming t h e i n p u t r a t e t o t h e FSB program. Here t h e l e a v i n g r a t e o f th e FSB program (determined by ir24A) i s a small p o r t i o n o f th e flow o u t o f t h e FSB d e la y . Program D e s c r i p t i o n The computer program used t o model t h e l a b o r f o r c e system i s d i v i d e d i n t o two p a r t s . The f i r s t i s an e x e c u t i v e program which reads t h e i n p u t d a t a , c o n v e r t s i t t o a us e a b le form and allo ws t h e u s e r to make c e r t a i n assumptions about t h e environment t h a t th e model o p e r a t e s i n . The second p a r t i s t h e model program which con­ t a i n s t h e s t r u c t u r e o f th e model and computes a l l model v a r i a b l e s . This d e s c r i p t i o n w i l l f oc us f i r s t on t h e e x e c u t i v e program and then on t h e model program and i t s a s s o c i a t e d s u b r o u t i n e s . The e x e c u t i v e program was w r i t t e n t o meet th e needs o f th e Michigan Department o f Labor. I t allo w s u s e r s not f a m i l i a r with F o r t r a n computer language o r t h e modeling t e c h n i q u e t o make changes o r ad ju stm en ts t o assumptions ab ou t t h e m o d e l's o p e r a t i n g e n v ir o n ­ ment. The e x e c u t i v e program a l s o c o n v e r t s d a t a used f o r exogenous i n p u t v a r i a b l e s and v a l i d a t i o n purposes i n t o a format u s e a b l e by t h e model program and w r i t e s i t , along with t h e o p e r a t o r ' s e n v i r o n ­ mental a s su m p ti o n s, on a l o c a l f i l e which i s used as an i n p u t f o r t h e model program. For a complete d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e o p e r a t o r 42 assumptions and o p e r a t i o n o f t h e e x e c u t i v e program s ee r e f e r e n c e (1 6). A program l i s t i n g i s p r e s e n te d in Appendix E. A block diagram i l l u s t r a t i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e model program f o r t h e c u r r e n t system i s shown i n Figure 2. The f i r s t f u n c t i o n o f th e program i s to read i n t h e o p e r a t o r made assumptions t h a t have been g en er ate d in th e e x e c u t i v e program. Next t h e program reads t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e d a t a and the v a l i d a t i o n d a ta which have been c o nverted by t h e e x e c u t i v e program. I n i t i a l v a lu e s a r e then as s ig n e d to th e parameters o f t h e model. S ubrouti ne DUPCUT i s used to c a l c u l a t e PI through P21C and P22A through P24C a r e de f in e d in t h e model program i t s e l f . The s t a t e v a r i a b l e s XNLFR through FSBB a r e s e t t o t h e i r i n i t i a l values in t h e model program. The c o s t v a r i a b l e s a r e i n i t i a l i z e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e COST. In itializ­ ing th e r a t e v a r i a b l e s and t h e p r i n t i n g o f a l l i n i t i a l i z e d model v a r i a b l e s completes t h e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n phase o f t h e program. The program next follows a loop s t r u c t u r e , completing t h e loop once f o r each month. Month number one r e p r e s e n t s Jan uary 1970, month two r e p r e s e n t s February 1970, and c o n t i n u i n g on t o month 156 which r e p r e s e n t s December 1980. Within t h e loop t h e model assumes t h a t th e p o r ti o n o f employment t h a t i s covered by t h e Unemployment Insurance System i s 85.77 p e r c e n t up through December 1977. Beginning in January 1978 t h e p o r t i o n o f covered employment grows a t th e r a t e o f }% per month to r e f l e c t r e c e n t s t a t e UI coverage l e g i s l a t i o n . The maximum l e v e l to which covered employment w ill grow i s s p e c i f i e d by t h e o p e r a t o r i n t h e e x e c u t i v e program. The program next 43 READ IN OPE RATOR MADE ASSUMPTIONS READ INPUT DATA 4INITIALIZE PARAMETER VALUES + INITIALIZE ST A T E VARIABLES INITIALIZE C O ST VARIABLES INITIALIZE RATE VARIABLES DO THE FOLLOWING ONCE EACH MONTH ALLOW COVERED EMPLOYMENT TO GROW FIGURE 2 . — PROGRAM FLOW CH ART FOR MODEL OF LABOR FORCE AND C URR EN T UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM. CHECK TO SEE IF EXTENSION WILL BE TRIGGERED DURING THE MONTH DO THE FOLLOWING 5 TIMES EACH MONTH UPDATE TIME + COMPUTE NON UI ST A T E VARIABLES (LEVEL VARIA BLE S) + COMPUTE FSB LEVEL VARIABLES DELAY FSB RATE VARIABLES COMPUTE EXTENSION LEVEL VARIABLES DELAY EXTENSION RATE VA RIABLES COMPUTE REGULAR LEVEL VARIABLES + DELAY REGULAR RATE VARIABLES + COMPUTE LEVEL ALGEBRAIC VARIABLES + INTERPOLATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES UPDATE PARAMETER VALUES FSB ON? NO YES CALCULATE FSB ENTRY RATE SET FSB ENTRY RATE TO ZERO REC ON? m YES CALCULATE REG ENTRY RATE COMPUTE REMAINING RATE VA RIABLES CONTINUE COMPUTE C O ST VARIABLES PR IN T O U T PU T DATA CONTINUE * END S E T REG ENTRY RATE T O ZERO 47 determ in e s i f t h e extended UI program w i l l be a c t i v e based on c r i t e r i a s e t by l e g i s l a t i o n . The monthly time increments a r e d iv i d e d i n t o f i v e equal increments by an i n n e r loop so th e flows and l e v e l s w i l l be c a l c u l a t e d and updated f i v e times each month. Within t h e i n n e r loop t h e time v a r i a b l e i s f i r s t updated followed by t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f a l l model l e v e l v a r i a b l e s . This i n c l u d e s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n of th e non UI l e v e l v a r i a b l e s such as employment and l a b o r f o r c e . The program d i v i d e s t h e FSB program i n t o two p a r t s , FSBA and FSBB, each o f 13 weeks mean d u r a t i o n to s im u l a t e t h e Federal UI program. It i s then p o s s i b l e to have th e FSB program non o p er atio n al (0 weeks d e l a y ) , a 13 week program o r t h e f u l l 26 week program. For s i m p l i ­ c i t y , t h e block diagram i n Fig ure 2 shows only one d e l a y b l o c k , but both d e la y s o p e r a t e in t h e same manner. I f t h e FSB program i s a 13 week program a l l people on th e program a r e s e n t d i r e c t l y i n t o t h e B d e l a y b lo c k . I f both programs a r e o p e r a t i o n a l (26 weeks maximum e n t i t l e m e n t ) sim ulated r e c i p i e n t s a r e allowed t o e n t e r t h e A d e la y block and then flow through t h e B d e la y block when th ey have exhausted t h e A b l o c k . The program d e te r m in e s i f t h e FSB program i s o f 26 weeks d u r a t i o n and i f s o, c a l c u l a t e s t h e number o f r e c i p i ­ e n t s in t h e A d e l a y block and then upda tes t h e A block r a t e v a r i ­ a b l e s by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e DELDT. The same p r o c e s s i s used f o r t h e B FSB d elay b l o c k . The same o p e r a t i o n s a r e performed on t h e extended UI program which i s r e p r e s e n t e d by a s i n g l e d e l a y b lo c k . The le v e l v a r i a b l e s 48 a r e c a l c u l a t e d b e f o r e th e r a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . The r e g u l a r program i s handled in a s i m i l a r manner with two d e l a y bloc ks used t o more a c c u r a t e l y r e p r e s e n t t h e be h a v i o r o f people on th e program. The level o f t h e r e g u l a r program i s determined by adding th e number o f r e c i p i e n t s in both t h e A and B d e la y b l o c k s . The r a t e v a r i a b l e s f o r th e B and A blocks a r e delayed by f i r s t c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e s DELDT f o r block B and VDEL f o r block A. After th is all th e remaining l e v e l and r a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . Since t h e model o p e r a t e s f i v e times each month and th e exogenous v a r i a b l e s a r e read as monthly v a l u e s , t h e v a r i a b l e s must be i n t e r p o l a t e d t o produce th e needed i n t e r m e d i a t e v a l u e s . This i s accomplished by c a l l i n g t h e i n t e r p o l a t i o n f u n c t i o n TABLI. Next t h e model parameters a r e updated by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e DUPCUT and a p o r t i o n o f t h e UI r a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e computed. The program then d et er m in es i f t h e FSB program i s a c t i v e durin g t h e c u r r e n t month in which th e model i s o p e r a t i n g . I f t h e FSB program i s on t h e e n t r y r a t e i s c a l c u l a t e d and i f FSB i s o f f t h e e n t r y r a t e i s s e t to zero. The same pro cess i s used f o r t h e extended UI program. The remaining r a t e v a r i a b l e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by c a l l i n g t h e VARCALC p o r ti o n o f s u b r o u t i n e DUPCUT and t h e i n n e r loop ( f i v e times each month) i s t e r m i n a t e d . The monthly c o s t v a r i a b l e s a r e th en computed and p r i n t e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e COST. The monthly o r o u t e r loop i s te r m i n a te d and th e o u t p u t i s p l o t t e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e DATAPLOT. A complete l i s t i n g o f t h e model program and s u b r o u t i n e s can be found in Appendix E. 49 The f o ll o w in g i s a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f u n c t i o n s and s u b r o u t i n e s used by th e model: S ub routine DELDT:^ A Fordyn s u b r o u t i n e used f o r s im u la t in g f ix e d le n g t h d i s t r i b u t e d time d e l a y s . S ub routine VDEL: 18 A F o r tr a n s u b r o u t i n e used f o r s im u l a t i n g v a r i a b l e l e n g t h d i s t r i b u t e d time d e l a y s . Function TABU: 19 A Fordyn lo ok-up f u n c t i o n f o r i n t e r p o l a t ­ ing values in a t a b l e d s e r i e s o f numbers. S ubr ou tin e DUPCUT: The f i r s t s e c t i o n o f s u b r o u t i n e DUPCUT c o n t a i n s eq u a tio n s f o r c a l c u l a t i n g some o f t h e par ameters o f th e model (PI through P21C). The VARCALC e n t r y p o i n t computes most o f t h e r a t e v a r i a b l e s used in t h e model. S ub routine COST: S ubr outine COST uses t h e number o f r e c i p i e n t s on each UI program t o determ ine t h e c o s t o f th e b e n e f i t s f o r each program. The s u b r o u t i n e f i r s t de termines t h e average weekly payment f o r each program which i s a f u n c t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l l e g i s l a t i v e changes (which a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by dummy v a r i a b l e s ) and t h e month ( a l s o r e p r e s e n t e d by dummy v a r i a b l e s ) . The u s e r o f t h e model can a l s o s p e c i f y t h e av er ag e weekly payment values through t h e e x e c u t i v e program. The number o f people in each program i s c on verte d to th e number o f weeks compensated by usin g e q u a t i o n s developed through regression a n a ly sis. The number o f weeks compensated i s m u l t i p l i e d by t h e av er ag e weekly payment v a l u e to determine th e monthly b e n e f i t c o s t f o r each program. These c o s t s a r e a l s o accumulated 50 f o r each y e a r and a y e a r l y t a b l e o f c o s t s by program i s p r i n t e d . An a d d i t i o n a l t a b l e o f c o s t s with a u s e r s u p p li e d growth f a c t o r i s printed for projections into the fu tu re . Subrou tine TITLE: The t i t l e and a u s e r s u p p li e d run name a r e p r i n t e d a t t h e top o f each page ex cep t pages used t o d i s p l a y grap hic o u t p u t . S ub routine MODPLT: This s u b r o u t i n e p r i n t s th e model v a r i a b l e s in both a t a b u l a r and gr a p h ic f orm at. In t h e graphic format th e model v a r i a b l e s can a l s o be p l o t t e d with h i s t o r i c a l d a ta t o a i d in v a l i d a t i o n o f th e model. Although t h e i n t e r a c t i v e execu­ t i v e program l i m i t s th e p o s s i b l e v a r i a b l e s to be p l o t t e d t o a maximum o f 23, t h i s s u b r o u t i n e has t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f p l o t t i n g a l l 82 model v a r i a b l e s and t h e co rres p o n d in g h i s t o r i c a l d ata i f a v a i l a b l e . C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s , c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n , and model and h i s t o r i c a l means a r e computed and p r i n t e d on th e l i n e p r i n t e r g rap hi c o u t p u t when h i s t o r i c a l d a t a i s p l o t t e d with th e model variables. H i s t o r i c a l Data Conversion and D e r i v a tio n H i s t o r i c a l d a t a has been used in t h i s model to a s s i s t in th e r efin em en t o f t h e model, to a i d i n e s t i m a t i n g para meters and a l s o to v a l i d a t e i t s o u t p u t . This s e c t i o n w i l l d e s c r i b e t h e d e r i v a t i o n and co n v er sio n o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l d a ta f o r t h e s e u s e s . The b a s i c s our ce s o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a and t a b l e s showing c o nversion procedures a r e shown in Appendix F. Table 1 i n Appendix F l i s t s t h e b a s ic sources o f h i s t o r i c a l d a ta s e r i e s used e i t h e r d i r e c t l y 51 by th e model f o r comparison purposes o r as an i n p u t to th e data conversi on procedure. Tables monthly l e v e l s 2, 3 and 4 o f Appendix F show th e d e r i v a t i o n o f th e o f r e c i p i e n t s in t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB p r o ­ grams r e s p e c t i v e l y . to Table 2 f o r The e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h i s d e r i v a t i o n w i l l r e f e r t h e r e g u l a r program. Tables 3 and 4 i s i d e n t i c a l . The procedure followed in The two d ata elements used to d e r i v e th e r e g u l a r le v e l a r e t h e number o f Michigan l i a b l e continued weeks claimed compensable and Michigan a g e n t co ntinued weeks cl ai m ed . A week claimed i s a r e q u e s t f o r a b e n e f i t payment f o r a week o f t o t a l o r p a r t i a l unemployment. These elements which a r e found in columns B and C a r e added t o g e t h e r t o y i e l d th e t o t a l number o f person-weeks i n t h e month l i s t e d in column D. The number o f person-weeks i s t h e t o t a l number o f weeks claimed du rin g th e month. By d i v i d i n g t h i s f i g u r e (column D) by t h e number o f working weeks per month (column A) an approximate l e v e l o f t h e r e g u l a r program (column E) i s a r r i v e d a t . This i s an approximation to th e number o f people i n t h e system f o r one working month s i n c e two o r more people could have r e s u l t e d in a month cl ai m ed . The e r r o r due to t h i s appr oximation i s expected t o be small and f a i r l y c o n s t a n t over tim e. Since t h e model o p e r a t e s with equal i n t e r v a l s o f ti m e , a l l months with r e s p e c t to t h e model w i l l be o f equal l e n g t h . The number o f r e c i p i e n t s in th e r e g u l a r program c a l c u l a t e d by t h e f o r e ­ going proce dure (column E) i n c o r p o r a t e s s y s t e m a t i c month t o month 52 v a r i a t i o n because each month c o n t a i n s a d i f f e r e n t number o f working weeks. Thus t h e h i s t o r i c a l d a ta must be s ta n d a r d i z e d to compare with t h e model o u t p u t . The assumption i s made t h a t th e model o p e r a t e s with a 365 day y e a r with 12 equal months o f f o u r weeks each. From t h i s a co n v e r sio n f a c t o r o f t h e number o f s ta n d a r d i z e d w ee k s /st a n d a r d i z e d month i s d e r i v e d as fo llo w s : _________ 365 days /.year_________ = , 345 months 7 days * year week s ta n d a r d i z e d weeks s t a n d a r d i z e d month The s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n o f th e monthly d ata i s performed by m u l t i p l y in g t h e u n s ta n d a rd ized lev el by t h e r a t i o o f t h e c onversion f a c t o r (4.345) t o t h e number o f working weeks pe r month. The r e s u l t s of t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n y i e l d i n g t h e s t a n d a r d i z e d monthly l e v e l o f t h e r e g u l a r program i s shown in column F. Tables 5, 6 and 7 o f Appendix F show th e d e r i v a t i o n o f th e monthly r a t e o f UI r e c i p i e n t s e n t e r i n g t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB programs r e s p e c t i v e l y . As b e f o r e , t h e e x p l a n a t i o n w i l l focus on t h e r e g u l a r program (Table 5) with i d e n t i c a l procedures followed in Tables 6 and 7 f o r t h e extended and FSB programs. The two d ata elements used to d e r i v e t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e r e g u l a r UI program (RUI) a r e f i r s t payments and i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l c l a i m s . A first payment i s t h e f i r s t check is s u e d t o a UI r e c i p i e n t dur in g th e f i r s t s p e l l o f unemployment. The number o f f i r s t payments du rin g a month i s used t o r e p r e s e n t t h e r a t e o f new e n t r a n t s e n t e r i n g th e 53 r e g u l a r program which i s one component o f RUI. payments i s shown in column F. The number o f f i r s t By d i v i d i n g t h i s f i g u r e by t h e number o f working weeks per month (column A) t h e weekly av erage o f f i r s t payments is de r i v e d (column G). The second component o f RUI i s t h e number o f r e e n t r a n t s to th e system which i s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e number o f i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l claims. An i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l cl aim i s f i l e d by a UI r e c i p i e n t a f t e r h i s s e r i e s o f claims has been i n t e r r u p t e d by r e t u r i n g t o work. There a r e two c a t e g o r i e s o f i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l c l a i m s —Michigan l i a b l e and Michigan a g e n t . Michigan l i a b l e i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l claims (column B) a r e Michigan r e s i d e n t s and Michigan a g e n t i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l cla im s (column C) a r e r e s i d e n t s o f o t h e r s t a t e s using t h e Michigan UI f a c i l i t i e s . Total i n i t i a l a d d i t i o n a l claim s a r e shown i n column D and t h e r e s u l t s o f d i v i d i n g t h i s f i g u r e by t h e number o f working weeks per month (column A) t o y i e l d a weekly av erage i s shown in column E. The a d d i t i o n o f columns E and G t o g e t h e r y i e l d s a weekly av er ag e per month o f t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g th e r e g u l a r unemployment i n s u r a n c e program (RUI) which i s shown in column H. By m u l t i p l y in g t h i s f i g u r e by t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks per s t a n d a r d i z e d month (4.345) t h e monthly RUI f i g u r e is d e r iv e d which i s shown in column I . Tables 8 , 9 and 10 o f Appendix F show t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e monthly r a t e o f UI r e c i p i e n t s who l e a v e t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB programs b e f o r e e x h a u s t i n g . Once r e c i p i e n t s e n t e r a given program, th ey w il l e i t h e r leave th e program b e f o r e ex h a u s tin g 54 b e n e f i t s presumably t o r e t u r n t o employment o r remain in t h e program u n t i l t h e b e n e f i t s a r e ex haus ted. Since s t a t i s t i c s a r e not main­ t a i n e d on th e number o f r e c i p i e n t s who l e a v e each month, t h i s f i g u r e must d e r iv e d a l g e b r a i c a l l y . The e x p l a n a t i o n o f t h i s pr o c e ­ dure w i l l be f o r th e r e g u l a r program (Table 8) with i d e n t i c a l proce dur es followed in Tables 9 and 10 f o r t h e extended and FSB programs. The s t a n d a r d i z e d r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e r e g u l a r program is l i s t e d in column B (from column I in Table 5 ) . The number o f r e c i p i e n t s e x h a u s t in g pe r month i s l i s t e d in column C. The s t a n d a r d i z e d r a t e ex h au s tin g per month (column D) i s c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g by t h e number o f working weeks per month (column A) and m u l t i p l y i n g by t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks per s t a n d a r d i z e d month ( 4 . 3 4 5 ) . The s ta n d a r d i z e d le v e l o f t h e r e g u l a r program (from column F in Table 2) i s l i s t e d i n column E. The change i n t h e l e v e l o f t h e r e g u l a r program i s l i s t e d i n column F ( t h e c u r r e n t v a lu e in Column E minus t h e pr ev io us val ue in column E). The r a t e l e a v in g th e program i s de r iv e d by making use o f t h e f o ll o w in g r e l a t i o n s h i p : A le v e l = r a t e e n t e r i n g - r a t e e x h a u s t in g - r a t e l e a v in g or r a t e l e a v i n g = r a t e e n t e r i n g - r a t e ex h a u s tin g - A l e v e l The r e s u l t s o f t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n (column B - column D column F) a r e shown in column G. 55 The r e a d e r w i l l note v o l a t i l e with l a r g e changes t h a t t h e f i g u r e s in column G a r e f a i r l y from one month to t h e n e x t . This i s most l i k e l y due to v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n pr oc ed ur es f o r th e elements used t o d e r i v e th e r a t e l e a v i n g . For example, f i r s t payments used in d e r i v i n g t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e system r e p r e s e n t s t h e number o f f i r s t payment checks i s s u e d . These checks a r e is s u e d by a computerized system and t h e i n f o r m a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d with them should be a c c u r a t e and t i m e l y . On t h e o t h e r hand, t h e number o f c o n ti n u ed weeks claimed used in d e r i v i n g t h e l e v e l o f r e c i p i e n t s in a program i s l a r g e l y t h e r e s u l t o f a manual a ccounting system with t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f e r r o r s and i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s from one month to t h e next. Column H in Table 8 i s t h e r a t i o o f t h e r a t e l e a v i n g t h e r e g u l a r program t o t h e sum o f t h e r a t e l e a v i n g and r a t e e x h a u s t in g . This r a t i o provid e s an e s t i m a t e o f t h e model par am eter tt22A ( tt23A f o r t h e extended program and tt24A f o r t h e FSB progra m ).By r e f e r ­ r i n g to th e model diagram i t may be seen t h a t ir22A determ in e s t h e r a t e l e a v in g t h e f i r s t d e la y block w h ile 1 - tt22A = tt22B de termines t h e flow i n t o th e second d e la y bl ock which models th o s e r e c i p i e n t s who w i l l u l t i m a t e l y e x h a u s t. Tables 11, 12 and 13 o f Appendix F show t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e l e v e l s and r a t e s a s s o c i a t e d with t h e employable s u b s e t s o f th e ADC-R, ADC-U and General A s s i s t a n c e (GA) programs i n t h e w e l f a r e p o r t i o n o f t h e model. In Table 11, which shows d a t a f o r t h e ADC-R c a t e g o r y , column A l i s t s th e t o t a l monthly c a s e l o a d o r t o t a l l e v e l . 56 The f i g u r e s i n columns A, C and E were o b ta in e d by l i n e a r l y i n t e r ­ p o l a t i n g monthly aver ag es f o r t h e q u a r t e r l y f i g u r e s t h a t were available. Since the model s im u l a t e s th e a g g r e g a t e be h a v io r o f people w i t h i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e , only t h e employable p o r t i o n o f t h e c a s elo ad i s used to a d j u s t and v a l i d a t e th e m odel's o u t p u t . Because info rm ation as to t h e e m p l o y a b i l i t y o f w e l f a r e r e c i p i e n t s i s not maintained by th e Michigan Department o f Social S er v ic es i t was n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e the p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e c a s e l o a d c o n ta in e d in th e labor force. Based on an av er ag e o f percentage employable f i g u r e s in t h r e e r e p o r t s pu blished by Michigan Department o f Social S e r v ic e s in c o o p e r a t i o n with th e Department o f H e a lth , Education and W elfar e, t h i s f i g u r e i s e s t i m a t e d a t 21.4% (see r e f e r e n c e s 20, 21 and 22 ). This p er cen ta g e i s a p p l i e d to th e f i g u r e s in column A to g i v e t h e approximate employable number o f r e c i p i e n t s l i s t e d in column B. Note t h a t t h e r e i s an i m p l i c i t assumption he r e t h a t t h e r e i s one employable person per employable c a s e l o a d . This assumption i s n e c e s s a r y s i n c e t h e model s im u l a t e s flows o f i n d i v i d u a l s and not c a s e lo a d s which a r e u s u a l l y fa m ily u n i t s . Another assumption in t h i s pr ocedure i s t h a t t h e p e r c e n t employable f i g u r e i s c o n s t a n t over tim e. This i s probably somewhat u n r e a l i s t i c s i n c e dur in g an economic downturn more people may be on t h e w e l f a r e r o l e s f o r employment r e l a t e d rea so ns than du rin g economic good ti m e s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , t h e r e i s no d a t a a v a i l a b l e to e s t i m a t e t h i s e f f e c t . The t o t a l r a t e l e a v i n g (case c l o s i n g s ) and t o t a l r a t e e n t e r i n g ( c a se openings) a r e l i s t e d in columns C and E r e s p e c t i v e l y . Again t h e c o n s t a n t p e r c e n t employable f i g u r e o f 21.4 m u l t i p l i e s 57 columns C and E t o o b t a i n t h e employable r a t e le a v i n g and employable r a t e e n t e r i n g l i s t e d in columns D and F. In a d d i t i o n t o t h e two pr ev ious as su m ptions, t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n r e q u i r e s a t h i r d assumption t h a t t h e employable s u b s e t o f ADC-R i s no more o r no l e s s dynamic than th e t o t a l c a s e l o a d . Again no d a t a i s a v a i l a b l e to e s t i m a t e t h e flows a s s o c i a t e d with t h e employable s u b s e t . Table 12 shows t h e e s ti m a t e d l e v e l s and r a t e s f o r th e ADC-U category of w elfare. Since ca s es a r e ad m itted t o t h i s c a t e g o r y on t h e b a s i s o f having an unemployed f a t h e r as th e head o f t h e house­ hold th e assumption i s made t h a t t h e e n t i r e c a s e lo a d has one employable perso n. Thus, t h e monthly c a s e l o a d , r a t e l e a v i n g and r a t e e n t e r i n g l i s t e d in columns A, B and C a r e t o t a l s f o r th e e n tire category. These f i g u r e s were o b t a in e d as b e f o r e by l i n e a r l y i n t e r p o l a t i n g monthly aver ag es f o r t h e q u a r t e r l y f i g u r e s t h a t were available. Table 13 shows th e e s ti m a t e d l e v e l s and r a t e s f o r t h e General A s s i s ta n c e c a t e g o r y o f w e l f a r e . The procedure and assump­ t i o n s r e q u i r e d f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n s a r e i d e n t i c a l t o th o s e followed in Table 11 with t h e e x c e p t io n t h a t th e employable p e r c e n t a g e f i g u r e used i s d i f f e r e n t . The p e r c e n t employable f i g u r e was es tim a te d a t 40% i n a survey o f General A s s s i t a n c e r e c i p i e n t s pu blish ed by t h e Michigan Department o f Social S e r v i c e . 23 Parameter E stim ation The t a s k o f e s t i m a t i n g par am eter s f o r t h i s model was d i f f i ­ c u l t due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t h e r e has been l i t t l e h i s t o r i c a l d a ta 58 a v a i l a b l e with which to base t h e e s ti m a t e s on. This i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e with r a t e o r flow d a t a and v i r t u a l l y a l l o f t h e mode l's m u l t i p l i e r parameters produce a flow v a r i a b l e . For t h i s rea so n many o f t h e parameters a r e t h e r e s u l t o f a good deal o f i n d i v i d u a l q u a l i t a t i v e judgment as to what c o n s t i t u t e s a r e a s o n a b l e e s t i m a t e . This i s p a r t i c u l a r l y t r u e with t h e w e l f a r e o r p u b l i c a s s i s t a n c e subsystem. Also t h e lac k o f some s t a t e d a t a has f o rc e d t h e use o f a few parameters which have been e s tim a te d f o r t h e c o u n tr y as a whole. The r e a d e r should keep in mind t h a t many o f th e model parameters r e p r e s e n t a f i r s t c u t " ball park" e s t i m a t e o f t h e i r t r u e v a lu e . Since a l l o f t h e m u l t i p l i e r para meters produce a r a t e v a r i a b l e , t h e parameter e s t i m a t i o n pr ocedure a c t u a l l y involved e s t i m a t i n g t h e r a t e s f i r s t and then c a l c u l a t i n g t h e par am eter from t h e e s tim a t e d r a t e . For t h i s r easo n t h e d i s c u s s i o n w i ll focus on the estim ation of the r a t e v a r ia b le s . E s tim a tio n o f t h e r a t e v a r i a b l e s has t h e advantage t h a t t h e e s t i m a t e s must be c o n s i s t e n t from c a t e g o r y to c a t e g o r y w i t h i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e . In o t h e r words an e s tim a te d flow le a v i n g one c a t e g o r y must show up as an e n t e r i n g flow in t h e o t h e r remaining l a b o r f o r c e c a t e g o r i e s (or a flow e n t e r i n g t h e non l a b o r f o r c e ) . Thus i t i s p o s s i b l e t o s e t up a s e r i e s o f g r o s s flow t a b l e s f o r each c a t e g o r y o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e showing where th e flows o r i g i n a t e d from and t h e i r d e s t i n a t i o n to a s s i s t i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n pro ce du re. The use o f t h i s gross flow te c h n iq u e a l s o permits t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f flows which a r e c o n s i s t e n t 59 with t h e growth or d e c l i n e o f a c a t e g o r y over tim e. For example i f t h e l e v e l o f a c a t e g o r y has been growing by a given amount per month then t h e e s t i m a t a t e d n e t flow i n t o t h a t c a t e g o r y should equal th e growth per month. The method j u s t o u t l i n e d works well i f t h e flows from one c a t e g o r y to an o th e r a r e expected to be c o n s t a n t b u t i t must be modified s l i g h t l y i f t h e flows change. For example i f th e s t a t e is e n t e r i n g a p e r io d o f d e c l i n i n g economic a c t i v i t y t h e n more people w i l l flow from employment to unemployment in s u r a n c e . Two s e t s of flows were e s ti m a t e d f o r t h e model with each r e p r e s e n t i n g an extreme c o n d i t i o n o f t h e s t a t e ' s economy. One s e t o f flows co r res p o n d s to good economic c o n d i t i o n s whil e th e o t h e r r e p r e s e n t s poor economic conditions. Once t h e maximum and minimum values f o r each flow v a r i a b l e have been e s t i m a t e d , t h e c orre s ponding extreme values f o r each par ameter can be c a l c u l a t e d . This y i e l d s a range o f values f o r each pa ram eter . I f a range f o r a par ameter has been determined then some means must be d evise d to a s s i g n i t a v al ue w i t h i n t h a t r a n g e . Since flows vary with t h e s t a t e o f t h e economy, many o f t h e model parame­ t e r s can be made a f u n c t i o n o f some i n d i c a t o r o f economic good o r bad t i m e s . The i n d i c a t o r chosen was a smoothed v e r s i o n (a f i v e month moving average) o f Michigan' s unemployment r a t e . The s t a t e unemployment r a t e was used because i t i s a g e n e r a l l y ac c e p te d gage o f t h e employment s t a t u s o f th e l a b o r f o r c e and may a l s o be used to i n d i c a t e t h e general c o n d i t i o n s o f t h e s t a t e ' s economy. This v a r i e s 60 from a p proxim a te ly 4% du rin g good economic c o n d i t i o n s t o a high o f c l o s e t o 15% d u r in g poor economic c o n d i t i o n s . The 4% f i g u r e c o r r e ­ sponds t o one extreme e s t i m a t e o f t h e par ameter while t h e 15% f i g u r e corre s ponds t o t h e o t h e r extreme e s t i m a t e . A simple l i n e a r eq u a ti o n can be developed so t h a t t h e pa ram eter i s a f u n c t i o n o f th e smoothed unemployment r a t e . Before d i s c u s s i n g in d e t a i l t h e approximation o f th e flows i t w i l l be he l p f u l to look a t th e h i s t o r i c a l l e v e l s o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e c a t e g o r i e s and t h e i r av erage growth r a t e s over tim e. v a lu e s a r e shown in Table 2. These All o f t h e c a t e g o r i e s ex cep t t h e WOB TABLE 2 . --Approximate Range o f Levels and Growth Rates . Category Range o f Level Average Growth Rate LF 3,60 0,000 - 4,10 0,000 5200 per month E 3,350 ,000 - 3,700,000 3650 per month WOB 70,000 - 160,000 0 ADC-R 11,000 - 52,000 210 per month ADC-U 7,500 - 12,000 70 per month GA 12,800 - 22,000 350 per month c a t e g o r y have e x h i b i t e d t h e approximate growth r a t e s over time shown in t h e t a b l e ( t h e f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t 1970 through 1976 which i s t h e per io d used f o r e s t i m a t i n g p a r a m e t e r s ) . The h i s t o r i c a l growth r a t e s w i l l be used as an a i d in e s t i m a t i n g t h e amount by 61 which t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g must exceed t h e r a t e l e a v i n g ( t h e n e t flow) so t h a t modeled growth o f th e c a t e g o r y w i l l r e f l e c t t h e h i s t o r i c a l growth. Another i m p o rta n t p o i n t should be brought o u t a t t h i s tim e. The minimum and maximum f i g u r e s in t h e gross flow t a b l e s which w i l l be p r e s e n t e d s h o r t l y a l s o co rre spond roughly with th e beginning and ending o f t h e time p e r io d used in e s t i m a t i o n . Nineteen se ven ty was a p erio d o f r e l a t i v e l y good economic times while in 1975 - 1976 t h e s t a t e underwent t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e energy c r i s i s induced by th e o i l embargo in t h e Fall o f 1974. In t h e beginning o f 1975 t h e s t a t e ' s unemployment r a t e approached 15% then g r a d u a l l y d e c l i n e d but remained high through 1976. Thus t h e minimum and maximum flow f i g u r e s r e p r e s e n t i n g extreme s t a t e s o f t h e economy in t h e gr os s flow t a b l e s a l s o c o n t a i n an a d d i t i v e h i s t o r i c a l growth component. As t h e l e v e l o f t h e c a t e g o r y becomes l a r g e r i t may be expected t h a t i t s a s s o c i a t e d g r o s s flows w ill a l s o grow ( n o te t h a t i t i s a p o s i ­ t i v e n et flow which r e s u l t s in a growth o f t h e l e v e l ) . In o t h e r words th e l a t t e r f i g u r e i n t h e g r o s s flow t a b l e s w i l l be l a r g e r due to economic hard times as well as t h e growth o f t h e c a t e g o r y . The f a c t t h a t t h e para meters were e s ti m a t e d using a d e c l i n i n g economic per iod may l i m i t t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e o v e r a l l model i f i t i s a p p l i e d to a per io d o f economic growth. The g r o ss flow t a b l e s used t o a s s i s t in t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f th e model para meters a r e shown in Table 3. Note t h a t f o r most o f th e c a t e g o r i e s t h e n e t flow f o r both t h e minimum and maximum g r o ss 62 TABLE 3 . - -G ross Flow Tables (Monthly Flows). FLOW INTO LF FLOW OUT OF LF NLFRE NLFRWOB NLFRUI 96728 - 122910 32712 - 55673 1650 - 2280 NLFRADCR NLFRADCU NLFRGA NLFR 325 - 1072 25 - 75 360 - 540 131800 - 182550 96728 - 122910 21123 - 46076 34000 - 107000 420 - 1160 36 - 310 301 - 1001 820 - 1300 153428 - 279757 32712 - 55673 3008 - 14172 0 -0 1775 - 9337 36 - 310 43 - 143 410 - 650 37984 - 80285 FLOW INTO ADC--R NLFRADCR WOBRADCR ERADCR UIEXRADCR UILVRADCR RADCR ERNLF ERWOB ERUI 108900 - 139500 3008 - 14172 37650 - 136120 ERADCR ERADCU ERGA ER 25 - 82 75 - 225 120 - 180 149778 - 290279 FLOW OUT OF WOB FLOW INTO WOB NLFRWOB ERWOB UILVRWOB UIEXRWOB ADCRRWOB ADCURWOB GARWOB RWOB 108900- - 139500 14938 - 29136 1050 - 3300 700 - 2900 108 - 930 86 - 286 820 - 1300 126602 - 177352 FLOW OUT OF E FLOW INTO E NLFRE WOBRE UILVRE UIEXRE ADCRRE ADCURE GARE RE ERNLF WOBRNLF UILVRNLF UIEXRNLF ADCRRNLF ADCURNLF GARNLF RNLF 325 - 1072 125-413 25 - 82 25 - 83 0 -0 500 - 1650 WOBRNLF WOBRE WOBRUI 14938 - 29136 21123 - 46076 700 - 1600 WOBRADCR WOBRADCU WOBRGA WOBR 125 - 413 300 - 900 1440 - 2160 38626 - 80285 FLOW OUT OF ADC-R ADCRRNLF ADCRRWOB ADCRRE ADCRRUI 108 - 930 36 - 310 36 - 310 0 -0 ADCRR 180 - 1550 63 TABLE 3.— Continued. FLOW INTO ADC-U NLFRADCU WOBRADCU ERADCU UIEXRADCU UILVRADCU RADCU 25 - 75 300 - 900 75 - 225 100 - 300 0 - 0 500 - 1500 FLOW INTO GA NLFRGA WOBRGA ERGA UIEXRGA UILVRGA RGA ADCURNLF ADCURWOB ADCURE ADCURUI 86 - 286 43 - 143 301 - 1001 0 - 0 ADCUR 430 - 1430 FLOW OUT OF GA 360 - 540 1440 - 2160 120 - 180 480 - 720 0 - 0 2400 - 3600 FLOW INTO UI NLFRUI ERUI WOBRUI ADCRRUI ADCURUI GARUI FLOW OUT OF ADC-U GARNLF GARWOB GARE GARUI GAR 820 - 1300 410 - 650 820 - 1300 0 - 0 2050 - 3250 FLOW OUT OF UI 1650 -■ 2280 37650 - 136120 700 - 1600 0 -0 0 -0 0 -0 UILVRNLF UILVRE UILVRWOB UILVRADCR UILVRADCU UILVRGA UILVR 1050 - 3300 34000 - 107000 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 -0 0 -0 35050 - 110300 UIEXRNLF UIEXRE UIEXRWOB UIEXRADCR UIEXRADCU UIEXRGA UIEXR 700 - 2900 420 - 1160 1775 - 9337 25 - 83 100 - 300 480 - 720 3500 - 14500 64 flows i s equal t o t h e av erage growth r a t e shown In Table 2. A list o f th e model par ameter eq u a t io n s which were e s ti m a te d using the gross flow d a t a appear s in Appendix D. The e x p l a n a t i o n o f how t h e s e flow v a r i a b l e s were d e r iv e d w il l begin with th e unemployment in su r a n c e system. The model o f t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system was developed b e f o r e th e development o f t h e o v e r a l l model so t h a t t h e magnitude and be h a v io r o f t h e UI flow v a r i a b l e s was known f o r t h e purposes of dev elop ing gr os s flow t a b l e s . H i s t o r i c a l l e v e l and flow d ata f o r t h e UI system i s p r e s e n te d in Tables 2 - 10 o f Appendix F. These t a b l e s a r e t h e sources f o r t h e minimum and maximum UI flow v a r i a b l e s l i s t e d in Table 3. These t a b l e s a r e a l s o th e sources f o r th e UI parameter e s t i m a t e s ( s i n c e th e UI subsystem i s modeled by del ay f u n c t io n s r a t h e r than i n t e g r a t i n g n e t flo w s, t h e gross flow e s t i m a t ­ ing tech n iq u e i s not a p p r o p r i a t e ) . rr22A and B, tt23A and B and tt24A and B, which de term in e t h e r a t e l e a v in g and e x h a u s tin g t h e UI s u b s y s ­ tem were e s ti m a t e d using t h e c a l c u l a t e d val ue o f t h e s e parameters in column H o f Tables 8, 9 and 10 o f Appendix F. tt23C and tt24C which determine t h e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e f o r t h e extended and FSB programs were s e l e c t e d by making i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s and th en a d j u s t i n g th e estim ates. These para me ters were a d j u s t e d between r e p e a t e d runs o f t h e UI submodel u n t i l t h e r a t e e x h a u s tin g t h e prec ed ing program plus th e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e equaled t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g . This method was a l s o used to f i n e tu ne a l l t h e UI param eter s so t h a t th e UI m odel's l e v e l s and r a t e s were c l o s e to th e h i s t o r i c a l l e v e l s and r a t e s . 65 The minimum and maximum flow v a r i a b l e s f o r t h e w e l f a r e o r p u b li c a s s i s t a n c e subsystem (ADC-R, ADC-U and GA) were e s t i m a t e d using t h e h i s t o r i c a l flow d a ta which appears in Tables 11, 12 and 13 o f Appendix F. This flow da ta gives th e t o t a l r a t e e n t e r i n g o r l e a v i n g a c a t e g o r y r a t h e r than th e component flows f o r each o f t h e p o s s i b l e sou rces and d e s t i n a t i o n s w i t h i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e . These component flows were e s t i m a t e d by t a k i n g a c o n s t a n t p e r c e n ta g e o f t h e t o t a l flow. For example t h e t o t a l r a t e e n t e r i n g a ca te g o r y i s div i d e d up so t h a t each p o r t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a flow from one o f t h e var io u s sources w i t h i n t h e l a b o r f o r c e ( o r from th e non l a b o r force). These p er cen tag e e s t i m a t e s and th e r e s u l t i n g e s tim a t e d minimum and maximum flows a r e shown in Table 4 ( t h e flows a r e a l s o i n Table 3 ) . TABLE 4 . —Flows To and From t h e Employable P o r ti o n o f Welfare. ADC-R ADC-U TOTAL RATE ENTERING FROM NLF FROM WOB FROM E FROM UIEXR FROM UILVR 500 - 1650 325 - 1072 (65%) 125 - 413 (25%) 25 - 82 (5%) 25 - 83 (5%) 0 - 0 ( 0 %) 500 - 1500 25 - 75 (5%) 300 - 900 (60%) 75 - 225 (15%) 100 - 300 (20%) 0 - 0 ( 0 %) TOTAL RATE LEAVING TO NLF TO WOB TO E TO UI 180 - 1550 108 - 930 (60%) 36 - 310 (20%) 3 6 - 3 1 0 (20%) 0 - 0 ( 0 %) 430 - 1430 86 - 286 (20%) 43 - 143 (10%) 300 - 1001 (70%) 0 - 0 ( 0 %) GA 2400 - 3600 360 - 540 (15%) 1440 - 2160 (60%) 120 - 180 (5%) 480 - 720 (20%) 0 - 0 ( 0 %) 2050 820 410 820 0 - 0 - 3250 - 1300 (40%) - 650 (20%) - 1300 (40%) ( 0 %) 66 The flows remaining to be d i s c u s s e d a r e th o s e between t h e c a t e g o r i e s o f l a b o r f o r c e , non l a b o r f o r c e , employment and those w it h o u t b e n e f i t s . The t o t a l r a t e l e a v i n g th e l a b o r f o r c e (RNLF) was i n i t i a l l y e s ti m a t e d by m u l t i p l y in g t h e p e r c e n ta g e o f people in t h e l a b o r f o r c e who leave t h e l a b o r f o r c e each month by t h e av erage s i z e o f M ichigan 's l a b o r f o r c e . This t r a n s i t i o n percentage (ap pro xim at el y 4.5%) was r e p o r t e d in a study o f g r o s s flow data f o r t h e c o u n t r y as a whole. 24 The l ack o f g r o ss flow s t a t i s t i c s f o r th e s t a t e o f Michigan has f o r c e d t h e use o f s e v e r a l para meters based on n a t i o n a l d a t a . The i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e o f RNLF was modified and a range o f valu es determined by adding up t h e p r e v i o u s l y e s ti m a te d components o f RNLF and e s t i m a t i n g t h e remaining components usin g parameters which were based on n a t i o n a l d a t a . A s i m i l a r pro cess was a l s o used t o e s t i m a t e t h e t o t a l r a t e e n t e r i n g th e l a b o r f o r c e (NLFR). The a d d i t i o n o f flows based p a r t l y on h i s t o r i c a l d a t a f o r t h e UI and w e l f a r e subsystems to flows based on n a t i o n a l par ameter e s t i m a t e s produced an i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e o f NLFR. Since t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e l a b o r f o r c e (NLFR) should exceed t h e r a t e l e a v i n g (RNLF) by t h e av er ag e h i s t o r i c a l growth r a t e o f 5200 per month shown i n Table 2, ad ju s tm e n ts were made to t h e components o f both o f t h e s e flows to a c h ie v e t h i s growth r a t e . This e s t i m a t i o n r e q u i r e d s e v e r a l i t e r a t i o n s to a c h ie v e t h e gross flow e s t i m a t e s shown in Table 3 which y i e l d s growth r a t e s f o r the t o t a l l a b o r f o r c e as well as i t s components c o n s i s t e n t with t h e av erage h i s t o r i c a l growth r a t e . 67 I t was p r e v i o u s l y mentioned t h a t c e r t a i n pa ram eters used t o determine flows in t h e model a r e based on n a t i o n a l g r o s s flow data. These para meters a r e irl, tt7, tt9 with t h e i r e q u a ti o n s in Appendix D. and tt15 which a r e l i s t e d Note t h a t th e y a r e f u n c t i o n s o f t h e unemployment r a t e f o r t h e e n t i r e c o u n tr y (USUR). These pa ra meters came from a stu d y o f t h e demographic components o f n a t i o n a l gross flow d a t a . 25 Values o f t h e s e pa ram eter s f o r each demographic component o f th e n a t i o n ' s l a b o r f o r c e were l i s t e d in t h e study a t n a t i o n a l unemployment r a t e s o f 4% and 6%. These demographic component par am eter s were weighted a c c o r d in g t o th e demographic composition o f M ichigan 's l a b o r f o r c e and added t o produce parameters a p p l i c a b l e t o th e t o t a l l a b o r f o r c e i n Michigan. Using t h e r e s u l t i n g parameter value s a t 4 % and 6% a simple e q u a ti o n was d e r i v e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e par am eter v a lu e s as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e n a t i o n a l unemployment r a t e . Since t h e r e i s rea so n t o b e l i e v e t h a t Mich igan 's economy behaves d i f f e r e n t l y th an t h e n a t i o n ' s economy, using param eter s t h a t a r e a f u n c t i o n o f t h e n a t i o n a l unemployment may im pai r t h e v a l i d i t y o f some p o r t i o n s o f t h e model. Parameter irl determ in e s t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e l a b o r f o r c e (NLFR) which goes t o employment (NLFRE). tt7 Parameter det er m in es t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e w it h o u t b e n e f i t s l e v e l (WOB) which flows t o employment (WOBRE). Parameter tt9 d eter m in e s t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e WOB c a t e g o r y which flows t o t h e non l a b o r f o r c e (WOBRNLF). In t h e stu d y used t o e s t i m a t e t h e s e p aram eters ( r e f e r e n c e 24) t h e flows which ir7 and ir9 determine were from t h e e n t i r e l e v e l o f 68 unemployment r a t h e r than t h e level o f th e WOB c a t e g o r y which i s a s u b s e t o f unemployment. estim ates of tt7 and Thus t h e r e i s an assumption in usin g th e t h a t th e WOB c a t e g o r y e x h i b i t s th e same rr9 dynamic be hav ior as t h e e n t i r e l e v e l o f unemployment. Parameter tt15 d e te r m in e s t h e p o r t i o n o f t h e l e v e l o f unemployment which flows to th e non l a b o r f o r c e (ERNLF). The para me ters remaining to be d i s c u s s e d a r e tt6 , tt8 , ttI O through tt1 and irl7 through 4 tt2 1 . tt2 through These para meters which a l s o ap pe ar in Appendix D were e s t i m a t e d using th e minimum and maximum gross flows which appear in Table 3. Many o f them a r e f u n c t i o n s o f M ichigan's unemployment r a t e with f i v e month smoothing (SUR) and t h e remainder o f them a r e c o n s t a n t s . The flows which each o f t h e s e param eter s produce may e a s i l y be determined from th e model diagram which appea rs i n Appendix B. Rather tha n d i s c u s s how each e q u a tio n d e f i n i n g th e s e param eter s was determined a r e p r e s e n t a ­ t i v e example w i l l be p r e s e n t e d . The example i s irll which determ in e s t h e flow o f UI exhaust e e s (UIEXR) going t o employment (UIEXRE). This par am eter was assumed t o be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e smoothed v e r s i o n o f M ic higan's unemployment r a t e (SUR) which has approximate extreme v a lu e s o f 4% to "\5%. The extreme values o f the flow v a r i a b l e UIEXR and UIEXRE which ap pear in Table 3 a r e shown below: UIEXRE: UIEXR: The extreme val ue o f ttI I o f UIEXR i s given below: 420 - 1160 350 - 14500 which i s th e r a t i o o f th e extreme v alues 69 *" ’ irish -08 - -12 The s lo p e and i n t e r c e p t o f t h e e q u a t io n f o r t t I I in t h e form t t I 1 a + b x SUR would be c a l c u l a t e d as f o llo w s : . _ .08 - .12 b " .15 - .04 _ " "*3636 a = .12 + .3636 x .04 = .13454 The r e s u l t i n g equati on f o r ttI 1 i s shown below: it11 = .13454 - .3636 x SUR The r e a d e r w i l l n o t i c e t h a t s i x par ameter c o n s t r a i n t s appear i n Appendix D. These c o n s t r a i n t s a r i s e because t h e model i s des igned t o a c c u r a t e l y ac count f o r people once th ey e n t e r th e labor force. t h e system. In o t h e r words people a r e not c r e a t e d o r l o s t w i t h i n All o f t h e s e c o n s t r a i n t s deal with par am eter s t h a t ta k e a p o r t i o n o f a flow v a r i a b l e and c o n v e r t i t to o t h e r flow variables. These c o n s t r a i n t s simply en sure t h a t t h e f r a c t i o n s o f a flow v a r i a b l e must sum to l e s s than o r equal t o one. Constraints which sum to l e s s than one i n d i c a t e t h a t a p o r t i o n o f t h e flow v a r i a b l e goes t o t h e WOB c a t e g o r y which i s t r e a t e d as a r e s i d u a l classificatio n . C o n s t r a i n t s which sum t o one i n d i c a t e t h a t th e t o t a l flow i s c o m ple tely accounted f o r by t h e flows produced by parameters i n t h e c o n s t r a i n t e q u a t i o n . 70 Appendix D a l s o l i s t s t h e parameters used in t h e d elay f u n c t io n s used t o r e p r e s e n t t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system. Both t h e mean time and the o r d e r o f t h e d elay f u n c t i o n s were determined by making i n i t i a l e s t i m a t e s and th en a d j u s t i n g th e estim ates. These parameters were a d j u s t e d between r e p e a t e d runs o f th e UI submodel u n t i l t h e m odel's o u t p u t was app ro xima tely equal with t h e h i s t o r i c a l UI l e v e l and r a t e v a r i a b l e s . Conversion o f UI Model Output to Cost In o r d e r t o use th e model to de term in e t h e e f f e c t s of sim ula ted p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s on program c o s t s , i t i s n eces sar y to e s t a b l i s h t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e number o f people in each program and t h e c o s t s o f th e r e s p e c t i v e programs. This was accomplished by t h e use o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a to develop co nv er sion equations. These e q u a tio n s were th en a p p l i e d to t h e model o u t p u t , which i s i n the form o f t h e monthly number o f people on each UI program, to c o n v e r t i t to c o s t f i g u r e s . Since c o s t p er person d a t a i s only kept in an average weekly b e n e f i t f o rm a t , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o c o n v e r t t h e number o f people on each program t o t h e co r re s p o n d in g number o f weeks compen­ sated. Figu re 3 diagrams t h e procedure used in c o n v e r t i n g th e number o f conti nued months claimed (analogous t o th e number o f people on a UI program) to th e number o f weeks compensated. U lt i m a t e l y th e t o t a l e s t i m a t e d number o f weeks compensated ( l a s t block in Figure 3) w i l l be m u l t i p l i e d by an "average weekly payment" f a c t o r in o r d e r to o b t a i n th e e s ti m a t e d UI b e n e f i t payments per month. 71 NUMBER OF STANDARDIZED CONTINUED MONTHS CLAIMED (B OTH INTRA AND IN T E R S T A T E CLAIMS) MULTIPLY BY WORKING WEEKS PER MONTH AND DIVIDE BY 4.3 45 TO GET UNSTANDARDIZED CONTINUED MONTHS MULTIPLY BY WORKING WEEKS PER MONTH TO C ONV ERT UNSTANDARDIZED CONTINUED MONTHS CLAIMED TO UNSTANDARDIZED CONTINUED WEEKS CLAIMED S U B T R A C T MICHIGAN AGENT IN T ER ST A T E CONTINUED WEEKS CLAIMED S U B T R A C T INELIGIBLES ADD MICHIGAN LIABLE IN T ER ST A T E CLAIMS ESTIMATED WEEKS COMPENSATED FIGURE 3 . -- DE TE RM IN A TI ON OF WEEKS COMPENSATED 72 The uppermost block in Figure 3 r e p r e s e n t s t h e number o f s ta n d a r d i z e d con tinu ed months cl ai m ed . This d e s c r i p t i o n i s analogous to t h e number o f persons per month clai m ing UI b e n e f i t s . I t 1s im po rt an t t o n o te t h a t t h e model o u t p u t has been s t a n d a r d i z e d over each 12 month time p e r i o d . e q u a lly weighted. Each month du rin g a given y e a r has been Since t h e model was designed to deal with uniform time in c r e m e n ts , th e s t a n d a r d i z a t i o n o f monthly v a l u e s was a n e c e s s i t y . The next block in Figure 3 diagrams th e a d ju stm en t procedure which, when a p p l i e d t o t h e number o f s ta n d a r d i z e d c o n tin u e d months claimed w i l l provide t h e number o f u n s ta n d a r d i z e d months claim ed. The a djustm ent procedure r e q u i r e s two c o n s t a n t s : th e number o f working weeks pe r month and t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks per month ( r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e c o n s t a n t 4 . 3 4 5 ) . The f i r s t c o n s t a n t , number o f working weeks pe r month, i s de r iv e d by d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l number o f working days i n t h e month by f i v e , t h e number o f working days per week in a month. The second c o n s t a n t , number o f s ta n d a r d i z e d weeks pe r month, i s d e r iv e d by f i r s t d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l number o f days in th e y e a r by t h e number o f months in a y e a r (12) and then d i v i d i n g t h a t r e s u l t (days per month) by seven t o o b t a i n t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks per month. The c onversion c o n s i s t s o f m u l t i p l y i n g t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d c onti nued months claimed by th e r a t i o o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks per month to working weeks pe r month. The t h i r d block in Figure 3 i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e number o f working weeks per month i s m u l t i p l i e d by th e number o f u n s ta n d a r d ­ ized c ontinued months claimed in o r d e r to o b t a i n u n s t a n d a r d i z e d 73 co ntinued weeks claimed o r t o t a l per son weeks. This adjustm ent i s c r u c i a l s i n c e i t i s u l t i m a t e l y week!y cl aim i n fo r m a ti o n t h a t w i l l be c onverted t o d o l l a r c o s t s . The f o u r t h block in Figure 3 i n d i c a t e s t h a t Michigan Agent I n t e r s t a t e Continued Weeks claimed i s s u b t r a c t e d from t o t a l person weeks ( u n s ta n d a r d i z e d con tinued weeks c l a i m e d ) . The s u b t r a c t i o n i s r e q u i r e d in o r d e r t o s e p a r a t e from M ich igan 's c o nti nued weeks claimed th e number o f continued weeks claimed t h a t o t h e r S t a t e ' s r e s i d e n t s a p p l i e d f o r while in Michigan. These o u t - o f - s t a t e cl ai m s w ill not draw a g a i n s t Mich igan 's UI fund ba lanc e ac c o u n t. The remainder r e p r e s e n t s M ich igan 's l i a b l e co ntinued weeks claimed in trastate. The f i f t h block in Figure 3 i l l u s t r a t e s th e s u b t r a c t i o n o f ineligibles. I n e l i g i b l e s r e f e r t o t h o s e co ntinued weeks claimed f o r which i n d i v i d u a l s (Michigan r e s i d e n t s ) never r e c e i v e d compensation due t o f a i l u r e o f t h e a p p l i c a n t s to comply with v a r io u s MESC r e g u l a ­ tions. The s i x t h block in Fig ure 3 shows t h e a d d i t i o n o f Michigan l i a b l e i n t e r s t a t e co n ti nu ed weeks cl ai m ed . This c a t e g o r y r e p r e s e n t s t h o s e c ontinued weeks claimed which Michigan r e s i d e n t s applied for in o t h e r S t a t e s ( e . g . , F l o r i d a ) f o r work c r e d i t gained i n Michigan. Since checks a r e forwarded t o persons making cl ai m s o u t s i d e th e S t a t e , t h i s c a t e g o r y o f clai m s has t o be tak en i n t o acc oun t when e s t i m a t i n g M ich ig an 's t o t a l number o f weeks compensated. The l a s t block i n Figu re 3 r e p r e s e n t s th e d e r iv e d e s t i m a t e d weeks compensated. 74 Figure 4 diagrams t h e development o f t h e e q u a ti o n s which c o n v e r t th e model o u t p u t i n t o c o s t f i g u r e s . The development o f th e e q u a ti o n t o p r e d i c t h i s t o r i c a l av er ag e weekly payment i s shown by t h e to p two bloc ks o f t h e flow c h a r t in Figure 4. Using h i s t o r i c a l d a t a , a monthly av er ag e weekly payment was c a l c u l a t e d as t h e r a t i o o f t o t a l monthly payments t o t o t a l weeks compensated. Total monthly payments i n c lu d e s both f u l l and h a l f weekly payments and t o t a l weeks compensated i n c l u d e s both f u l l and h a l f weeks com­ p e n s a te d . The r e s u l t i s an av er ag e f i g u r e which, when m u l t i p l i e d by e s ti m a t e d weeks compensated, y i e l d s an e s ti m a t e d monthly c o s t . For v a l i d a t i o n purposes an e q u a tio n must be developed which p r e d i c t s h i s t o r i c a l av er ag e weekly payment as a f u n c t i o n o f dummy v a r i a b l e s t o r e f l e c t l e g i s l a t i v e i n c r e a s e s o f b e n e f i t payments over ti m e . The r e s u l t s o f using m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t o p r e d i c t h i s ­ t o r i c a l av erage weekly payments, by program, i s shown in Table 5. The development o f an e q u a t i o n t o p r e d i c t e s ti m a t e d weeks compensated i s shown by t h e t h i r d block in Fig u re 4. The de v e lo p ­ ment o f t h i s e q u a t i o n r e q u i r e d th e h i s t o r i c a l e s t i m a t e d weeks com­ pen sat ed d e r i v e d by t h e procedure o u t l i n e d in Figure 3 and d i s c u s s e d in d e ta il e a r l i e r . The e q u a t i o n p r e d i c t i n g e s ti m a t e d weeks compen­ s a t e d w i l l be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e model o u t p u t . The r e s u l t s o f using m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t o p r e d i c t e s ti m a t e d weeks compensated f o r t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB programs i s shown i n Table 6. The proc ed ure t o de ter m ine th e c o s t o f t h e UI program i s shown by t h e fo urth block o f Figure 4 . Using t h e s i m u l a t i o n model, 75 DERIVE H IST O R IC A L AVERAGE WEEKLY PAYMENT DERIVE EQUATION TO ESTIMATE AVERAGE WEEKLY PAYMENT DERIVE EQUATION TO ESTIM ATE WEEKS COMPENSATED FROM MODEL O U TPU T MULTIPLY ESTIMATED WEEKS COMPENSATED BY ESTIMATED AVERAGE WEEKLY PAYMENT 4ESTIMATED C O ST FOR ONE MONTH FIGURE 4 . — DETERMINATION OF MONTHLY PROGRAM C O S T S 76 TABLE 5 . —Average Weekly Payment Equa ti ons. 1. Regular Program RE6AWP = LCDUM4 x 37.4 + LCDUM3 x 21.5 + LCDUM2 x 9 . 9 + LCDUM1 x 8.67 -DUM6 x 2.79 + DUM8 x 3.49 + DUM3 X 3.07 + DUM2 x 3.11 + DUM1 x 2.17 + 48.62 R2 = .971 D.W. = 1.26 (Durbin Watson) N = 91 2. Extended Program EXTAWP = LCDUM4 x 31.22 + LCDUM3 x 7.68 - DUM6 x 5.48 + 54.71 R2 = .966 D.W. = 1 .89 N = 37 3. FSB Program FSBAWP = $77.00* D e f i n i t i o n o f V a r ia b le s I f (month >4 /7 0 and < 2/72) LCDUM1 = 1 I f (month >2/72 and < 6/74) LCDUM2 = 1 I f (month >6/74 and < 6/75) LCDUM3 = 1 I f (month >6/76) LCDUM4 = 1 I f (month =Jan) DUM1 = 1 I f (month =Feb) DUM2 = 1 I f (month =Mar) DUM3 = 1 I f (month =Apr) DUM4 = 1 77 TABLE 5 . --C ontinued f (month = May) DUM5 = 1 f (month = Jun) DUM6 = 1 f (month = J u t ) DUM7 = 1 f (month = Aug) DUM8 = 1 f (month = Sep) DUM9 = 1 f (month = Oct) DUM10 = 1 f (month = Nov) DUM11 = 1 f (month = Dec) DUM12 = 1 *An av er ag e val ue was used because o f d a t a problems and a small number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s . 78 TABLE 6 . - -E stim a te d Weeks Compensated Equ a ti ons . 1. Regular Program RE6WC = 3 . 6 1 X STDREG - 11820.31 R2 = .95 D.W. = 2.32 (Durbin Watson) N - 91 2. Extended Program EXTWC = 4.09 X STDEB + 7443 R2 = .95 D.W. = 3.09 N = 37 3. FSB Program FSBWC = 2.57 X STDFSB + 153887 R2 = .40 D.W. = 2.74 N = 13 79 a p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e l e v e l o f r e c i p i e n t s ( th e number o f continued months claimed) in each UI program f o r each time p eriod i s o b t a i n e d . The model o u t p u t i s then used as an independent v a r i a b l e in t h e e q u a ti o n t o p r e d i c t e s ti m a te d weeks compensated f o r each UI program. M u lt ip ly in g t h i s r e s u l t by t h e computed v alu e o f av er ag e weekly payment y i e l d s a p r e d i c t i o n o f t h e c o s t f o r t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB programs. Since t h e model g e n e r a t e s monthly p r e d i c t i o n s o f t h e l e v e l s , t h e c o s t p r e d i c t i o n s w il l a l s o be by month. Model V a l i d a t i o n V a l i d a t i o n o f a s im u l a t i o n model r e f e r s t o th e e x t e n t o f t h e co rre spondence between th e beh av ior o f t h e model and th e be hav io r o f t h e system being modeled. The model o f th e c u r r e n t system was inten ded t o r epr od uce th e be h a v io r o f t h e e x i s t i n g UI (and l a b o r f o r c e ) system over time. Hence t h e v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e model has focused on t h e s i m i l a r i t y between t h e m o d el's o u t p u t and h i s t o r i c a l d a t a r e p r e s e n t i n g th e be ha vior o f t h e r e a l system. To a s s i s t i n d eter m in in g th e v a l i d i t y o f t h e model, d e s c r i p ­ t i v e s t a t s i t i c s as well as s u b j e c t i v e judgment were used t o a s s e s s t h e cor respo nde nc e between t h e model and r e a l i t y . The two d e s c r i p o t i v e s t a t i s t i c s used were t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n (R ) and 2 t h e mean o r a v e r a g e . A high val ue o f R o r a small d i f f e r e n c e between t h e model and h i s t o r i c a l means was used as an i n d i c a t o r o f t h e model r epr oduc ing h i s t o r i c a l b e h a v io r . However c o n s i d e r a b l e judgment i s involved in i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e s e d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s . The model was designed t o reproduce t h e a g g r e g a t e re sp o n s e o f t h e 80 Michigan UI system and l a c k s t h e d e t a i l n e c e s s a r y to c a p t u r e th e e x a c t e f f e c t o f c e r t a i n types o f shocks t o t h e system. For example t h e mode l's res ponse t o s t r i k e s i n t h e automobile i n d u s t r y o r th e a g g r e g a te e f f e c t on in d i v i d u a l be h a v io r o f t h e 1975-1976 energy c r i s i s may n o t fo ll ow r e a l i t y a c c u r a t e l y . In ge ner al c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a ti o n and means were used as an a i d in th e v i s u a l i n t e r ­ p r e t a t i o n o f th e mod el's v a l i d i t y from p l o t s o f th e m o d e l's r espons e and h i s t o r i c a l beh av io r over tim e. Line p r i n t e r p l o t s o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a and th e model o u t p u t over tim e with means and c o e f f i c i e n t s o f d e t e r m i n a t i o n f o r th e l e v e l s , e x h a u s tio n r a t e s and c o s t s f o r t h e r e g u l a r , extended and FSB programs and th e r e g u l a r program l e a v in g r a t e a r e shown in Figures 5 through 14. In t h e l i n e p r i n t e r p l o t one r e p r e s e n t s th e model o u t p u t and two r e p r e s e n t s h i s t o r i c a l d a t a . For t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs t h e l e v e l s and c o s t s ap pea r t o f o llo w h i s t o r i ­ cal d a t a r e a s o n a b ly w e l l . Note t h a t th e r e g u l a r l e v e l ( F ig u r e 5) and c o s t ( F ig u r e 8) i s o v e r p r e d i c t e d somewhat dur in g t h e peak o f th e 1975-1976 energy c r i s i s . This was a r e s u l t o f a t r a d e o f f du rin g th e a d ju s tm e n t and re fin e m e n t phase o f th e model development. The ch o ice was e i t h e r having t h e model p r e d i c t c l o s e l y dur in g good economic times o r bad economic t i m e s . The r e s u l t s shown in th e graphs r e p r e s e n t a compromise between t h e s e extr emes. The r e g u l a r and extended e x h a u s tio n r a t e s ( F ig u r e s 11 and 12) a r e a l s o r e a s o n a b l y c l o s e but some timing problems a r e e v i d e n t . F u r th e r r e fin e m e n t and p o s s i b l y t h e use o f a d d i t i o n a l time v a rying r a t h e r than f i x e d l e n g t h d i s t r i b u t e d d e l a y s could remedy t h i s . H.jO:LN?ft*'l5fltSl L^ A‘ * “ U t * t t t t 1 t A g t t t t M i f t t t »0H 3S0BQ w i r H i * j » i o : i j j f n > • ja*j-» k u f u. • j j . s n w j r *»,H I J .r -n ;,n jF f< A » U li.O h O J F » 1 * 'lJ J * 'J N O J F H I H J j * '.uN OJFnam jj^SO M DjFM IRJJASO NO c c .. 1970 * ’ * -------l‘ M 197* 1*7$ 1 9 71*- 3ND II m (Bonths) FIGURE 5.— Level of the Regular UI Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data itoaa. ilflllM. p. 20496 t - Mj jA j j iii.oiu»jf o n n j f vc m t i jj i. j. so n, r . u , fr finn.P M .ii* ,onNoD j 'n « j j » : o N o j r M « ij ji',o t.Ot.O J F J» F ’-> j i i uiuu j a : i i i u r t-" 'o uiin n jt *. ,pM jf W nn>.i ia .o j 'n »< u j * - u K O jr jrtn tn-jj» -jj»^^ooi.ijfiitn « ijfn t>JiJ j£ ',o « "» * ii'J i')' o* I 1' ! I ‘f | 1" T ? 1-I.M t« ’ » I lls l«»fc nr» U fa 19-s (aanths) FIGURE 6.— Level of the Extended UI Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). j r ’M iJ J A jJ H lJ f , V .' I.UUH.riJFnA t.JJ.'SONnjl Min J.iiSttipjF H A M jjA . OHj>JFHA«tiJ4.0NOJFHA1JJ<'ONOJF' 1970 1“ M 197? 197-1 U N 1975 1971. ONDjf 1979 TIh (Months) FIGURE 7.— Level of the FSB Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). OfGCQST 119090 190000 9 7,B,# 60000 JJ rr U l i ii tt JjJ »A -t'li j j f c-«* * * * * * * * 1 9 /0 1 -M ,lJ r i2Z?Z?2m??222m2?22??t>7tiM HAk j j ** V n i r n t M i i i ■nn]|, e l ! > * i H 7 -U 'H W H A H J J » ...r .n jr n A H J J « . o n o j f HAmj J * ^ O N U J F h A « jj# < j n o j f h a h j JJO O IO JFiM«h J J * > Q N D jF tU lJ J ft ,3H J 11/1 - TIm (aontha) FIGURE 8 . — Cost of the Regular Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). t coat of tba Bxtandad Prograa (la 1000'a) 33109. 197 0 ............ >** * **** l* » K » 4l * • * * » • • * • * * * fJJA -OMO jrHaiJJiC OMOJFMilU JJA^OMO^HA HJJA CONJjFH1lN jjliO^OfFPl'IJ Jft'.(HO 1*76 1*75 1976 l*rr 978 iv a Tlao (aontha) FIGURE 9.— Cost of the Extended Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). 1000'a) (la $ coat of tha FSB Proem 12901 11 Jr 'r t l ^ *......... jwwft* ..........*•* I "JM Jf l I t j u u r j l . ruN fljrt „ U . l . i U 'r'JF tlA n JJh iV )n jF '1 A H JjA 'Q H Q Jfn » n jJA \Q H 0 JF n iH JJH 6 H b JF n ln Jjm }H 0 JF n A tiJlt:M Vftt iv r 1MM 14N 197S 197* 1977 I9M 197® Tlao (Months) FIGURE 10.— Cost of the FSB Program: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). par aonth tho Regular Profru # of paopl# azhaustlnf g*fp*gtgpffffgfpfgrg*g»»*g j f tf. ■;.«* . M ) J i I - I I U T O l.iM l U I IJ.’ Sntj i j n ^ f r I J ^ O u n irn A i.J I t Q n n j r H A ij JAf'ONOJFHA»JjA ONnjff1AHjJ*,^fNI» jFfMN J j t S 0 « 0 jriM * J f f #M 9 m 7o t •/1 i urr - 'H 1977 ------- Tin* (aonths) FIGURE 11.— Regular Program Exhaustion Rate: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2) ibi 5*»»»?•» par aonth »*H» «+»£«•?« . # of paopla axhauating tha Extandad Progru 29000 jf j / .**»»)# *.*• i j # i ^ i » c i j r i u n :j. ij . sr.iinjf-r*^ i ur-ti.rjrruM jj*. oriOJFH4ijj»soiioJFHANjj».owjrti4««jjE< «yr jr.?3 19y „ |* J 5 Uj *0 1*fl 1*1, Tia« (aonthj) FIGURE 12.— Extended Program Exhaustion Rate: 4 1V 9 Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). RSOUftfttD s °4*« •N»5T»*«»« »??*•• #M0fiEL # of paopla exhausting the FSB program par month *** ' IJ* >*N 5 Jf !*• *IJ U : L I .( J l .U H J J . l.iK iP JI tlJ A ! 0 1,0 jF * 4 1 JJA 'ONIIJfHArt J J* . OMO J r H l * J J A .D H ) JF h A * J J fc'*0N9 JFH4H 11 » ; 3 1 D «ri i.I .D jF tV *— I **F«a" --—-* W ® * •‘ *«•--* Tina (months) FIGURE 13.— FSB Exhaustion Rate: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2). 17S10J. 4» H S I4H . J f i ^ i J J - > « i r ) JT IU 4 « u f u i f •t....j...f..i..l..#....'..»....j*. l*. "■ I Q u•*“ f r W i•-C• J■- - - - - - JQTC 1 -7 1 1M7? i« ./l — ?a3WaeegiMe»eiEoggi,e;oi>??g **■ - fi “ •* *"lW....."*19 197*” • J J tS b M 5 iF N a r •tJ - i4 3 0 N 6 jF . . .M . .«.^.jiA . . .:.Oi«3 ..j MJ M > ) r n j F t t A r t J ^ L O N O — V Hj;* r• t j j 2--;--O-M n • j^— A •H 1** 7—5 —\}U Tina (Bonthf) FIGURE 14.— Regular Program Leaving Rate: Model Output (1) vs. Historical Data (2) 91 The r e g u l a r program l e a v i n g r a t e ( F ig u r e 14) o b v io u s ly does not c a p t u r e much o f t h e v a r i a n c e shown by th e h i s t o r i c a l d a t a . This graph i s p r e s e n t e d to show th e a t t e m p t a t a l g e b r a i c a l l y d e r i v i n g th e h i s t o r i c a l l e a v i n g r a t e s i n c e i t i s not m aintained by t h e agency a d m i n i s t e r i n g th e UI program. In t h i s c a s e t h e mode l's leav in g r a t e i s probably more r e a l i s t i c than th e d e r iv e d h i s t o r i c a l leav in g r a t e . The l e v e l , c o s t , and e x h a u s tio n r a t e o f t h e FSB pro­ gram ( F ig ures 7, 10 and 13 r e s p e c t i v e l y ) a r e somewhat c l o s e to h i s ­ torical data. The lack o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a dur in g t h e f i r s t few months o f t h e program's o p e r a t i o n due t o combining two FSB programs i n t o one as well as t h e s h o r t l i f e o f th e program have prev en ted ade quate re fin e m e n t e f f o r t s . Conclusions drawn from graphs o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a and the model o u t p u t about t h e v a l i d i t y o f th e model must be q u a l i f i e d because much o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l d a t a was used to a d j u s t and r e f i n e th e model p a ram eters . H i s t o r i c a l d a t a from Jan uar y 1970 through December 1976 was used f o r t u n in g purposes with only t h e l a s t nine months (Jan uar y 1977 through September 1977) g i v i n g a t r u e i n d i c a ­ t i o n o f t h e m odel's v a l i d i t y . However th e h i s t o r i c a l time per io d used f o r v a l i d a t i n g th e model r e p r e s e n t s f a i r l y extreme economic c o n d i t i o n s f o r th e s t a t e o f Michigan. The unemployment r a t e v a r i e d from ab out 4% to about 15% dur in g t h e 1974-1975 energy c r i s i s . The im po rt an t p o i n t i s t h a t the model t r a c k s t h e s e extreme c o n d i t i o n s r easo n ab ly well with only one s e t o f p a r a m e te r s . 92 Another im po rta nt p o i n t t h a t should be noted i s t h e f a c t t h a t t h e model has been v a l i d a t e d only with a l i m i t e d range o f h isto ric a l inputs. The model may not be v a l i d f o r extreme ranges of RUI ( t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e UI system) such as l e s s than 10,000 o r more than 300,000 people per month. Extreme value s o f th e unemployment r a t e such as l e s s than Z% o r more than 18% may a l s o exceed th e v a l i d range of in p u t s f o r t h e model. In d i s c u s s i n g t h e v a l i d i t y o f th e model a n o t h e r f a c t o r which should be brought o u t concerns th e q u a l i t y o f t h e h i s t o r i c a l data. Much o f th e h i s t o r i c a l d a t a i s th e product o f a manual ac co unti ng system and in some ca s e s t h e r e s u l t o f a s t a t i s t i c a l sample ( t h e unemployment r a t e ) . Time l a g s , r e p o r t i n g problems and i n c o n s i s t e n c i e s from one d a t a s e r i e s t o a n o th e r r a i s e q u e s t i o n s as to t h e v a l i d i t y o f th e h i s t o r i c a l d a t a . V a l i d a t i n g o f t h e model has assumed t h a t exogenous i n p u t d a t a such a s RUI, which i s d e r i v e d from s e v e ra l d a t a s e r i e s , i s c o n s i s t e n t with t h e h i s t o r i c a l l e v e l s o f t h e UI programs. Obviously a v a l i d a t i o n problem e x i s t s i f i n t e g r a t i n g th e d e r i v e d h i s t o r i c a l r a t e d a t a does not y i e l d th e h i s t o r i c a l le v e l d a t a . The v a l i d a t i o n o f a s i m u l a t i o n model should t a k e i n t o acc ount th e purpose and use o f th e model. In e s se n c e t h e model should be a b l e to do th e jo b f o r which i t was c r e a t e d . A model i nte nded to reprodu ce only t h e ge ner al be hav ior o f a system should be v e r i f i e d to th e e x t e n t t h a t i t can reproduce gen er al b e h a v i o r . The v a l i d a t i o n o f a model should a l s o c o n s id e r th e u t i l i t y o f th e 93 model. I f t h e be ha vioral res ponse o f a model i n d i c a t e s a p o s s i b l e lack o f v a l i d i t y , t h e q u e s t i o n should be asked as t o whether o r not t h e model i s s t i l l u s e f u l . A model which i s on ly p a r t i a l l y v a l i d may s t i l l be h i g h l y us eful because i t i s t h e only a v a i l a b l e tool f o r answering c e r t a i n kinds o f q u e s t i o n s . In c o n c l u s i o n , t h e model o f th e c u r r e n t UI system i s a g e n e r a l l y v a l i d and use ful r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e r e a l system. Even though t h e model i s s u b j e c t t o th e l i m i t a t i o n s d i s c u s s e d p r e v i o u s l y i t can s t i l l prov id e in form ation about th e dynamic be hav ior o f th e unemployment i n s u r a n c e system. The u t i l i t y o f t h e modeling t e c h ­ nique demonstrated by t h e c u r r e n t model means t h a t t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a model o f t h e proposed t h r e e - t i e r UI system i s f e a s i b l e . The comparative e x p e r i m e n ta tio n between models o f t h e c u r r e n t and t h r e e t i e r system w ill provid e u s e fu l in form ation f o r th o s e contem plating a r e d e s i g n o f the unemployment in su r an ce system. i CHAPTER IV SIMULATION MODEL OF PROPOSED (THREE-TIER) UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE SYSTEM D e s c r i p t i o n o f T h r e e - T ie r UI System The t h r e e - t i e r unemployment i n s u r a n c e system was proposed by Saul J . B l a u s t e i n o f t h e W. E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment 26 Research as p a r t o f a comprehensive j o b s e c u r i t y system. The job s e c u r i t y system i s an o v e r a l l i n t e g r a t e d system f o r p rovid ing v a r i o u s employment r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s and income s u p p o r t f o r both unemployed and underemployed wo rk ers. The t h r e e - t i e r e d UI system i s proposed as a re placem ent f o r t h e p r e s e n t Michigan UI system. The t h r e e - t i e r e d UI system b a s i c a l l y c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e s e q u e n t i a l 13 week programs o r t i e r s p r o v id in g a maximum o f 39 weeks o f b e n e f i t s . To q u a l i f y f o r s ucc ee ding t i e r s t h e worker must pass i n c r e a s i n g l y s t r i n g e n t q u a l i f y i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . For example, t h e q u a l i f y i n g r e q u ire m e n ts t o move from t h e f i r s t t o th e second t i e r would be l e s s s t r i c t th a n t h e r e q u ire m e n t s t o move from t h e second t o t h e t h i r d t i e r . The q u a l i f y i n g re q u ire m e n ts would most l i k e l y be r e l a t e d t o t h e number o f weeks o f employment i n t h e base per iod o f employment (52 weeks) prec ed ing t h e f i r s t c l a im . The q u a l i f y i n g r e q u ire m e n ts could a l s o i nvolve a review and e v a l u a t i o n o f each c l a i m a n t ' s jo b o u t l o o k p o t e n t i a l and job 94 95 s earc h a c t i v i t y . This could a l s o pe rm it t h e s c r e e n i n g o f those i n d i v i d u a l s " r i d i n g " t h e system o r t h o s e l e s s s e r i o u s about f in d i n g employment. A s i m p l i f i e d block diagram o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r e d system i s shown in Figure 15. The t h r e e - t i e r e d system d i f f e r s from th e c u r r e n t system in s e v e r a l ways. F i r s t th e t h r e e - t i e r e d system uses f i x e d e n t i t l e m e n t whereas t h e c u r r e n t system has v a r i a b l e e n t i t l e m e n t . Under th e proposed system any worker q u a l i f y i n g f o r t h e f i r s t t i e r would be e l i g i b l e f o r a f u l l 13 weeks o f b e n e f i t s . S i m i l a r l y any worker p a s sin g t h e s c re e n in g r e q u ire m e n ts f o r t h e second o r t h i r d t i e r would be e l i g i b l e f o r 13 weeks in each t i e r . Under t h e c u r r e n t v a r i a b l e e n t i t l e m e n t system, t h e maximum le n g t h o f b e n e f i t s i s a f u n c t i o n o f prev ious work e x p e r i e n c e . B e n e f i t le n g t h i s computed on t h e b a s i s o f t h r e e weeks o f b e n e f i t s f o r f o u r weeks o f employment s u b j e c t t o a minimum work e x p e r ie n c e r e q u ire m e n t and th e maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t s provided by t h e program. Another d i f f e r e n c e between t h e c u r r e n t and proposed systems i s maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t d u r a t i o n . In t h e c u r r e n t system th e maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t s i s e i t h e r 26 o r 39 weeks depending on whether o r not t h e extended b e n e f i t s program has t r i g g e r e d on. The extended b e n e f i t s program r a i s e s t h e maximum e n t i t l e m e n t t o 39 weeks. I f th e Federal Supplementary B e n e f i t s (FSB) program i s a c t i v a t e d t h e maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t s r i s e s to 65 weeks. Under t h e proposed t h r e e - t i e r system a l l t i e r s a r e o p e r a t i n g so t h a t th e maximum e n t i t l e m e n t i s 39 weeks. A comparison o f t h e maximum l e n g t h ENTRANTS TO U . l . SYSTEM TIER 1 13 WEEKS | QUALIFYING' AND , | SCREENING 1 ^ REVIEW j + T IE R 1 FORCED EXHAUSTEES TIER 2 13 WEEKS | QUALIFYING | + I AND 'SCREENING | | REVIEW | TIER 3 TIER 3 13 WEEKS EXHAUSTEES + T IE R 2 FORCED EXHAUSTEES FIGURE 15. -BLOCK DIAGRAM OF T H R E E -T IE R U . l . SYSTEM 97 o f b e n e f i t d u r a t i o n between th e c u r r e n t and th e proposed UI systems i s shown in Figure 16. Due t o t h e f a c t t h a t e x i s t i n g f e d e r a l l e g i s l a t i o n provid es f o r an extended b e n e f i t s program i t i s not c l e a r i f an extended program would be used in c o n ju n c tio n with th e t h r e e - t i e r e d system i f i t were t o be implemented. I t i s assumed in t h i s d i s c u s s i o n t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r e d system would r e p l a c e th e combination o f th e c u r r e n t r e g u l a r and extended programs. The FSB program which was c r e a t e d by l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n has s i n c e exp ir ed and i s assumed t o be i n a c t i v e . Under t h e c u r r e n t system th e l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t e n t i t l e m e n t i s determined by t h e amount o f previous employment in th e base p erio d o f 52 weeks pr ec ed ing t h e f i r s t c l a i m . The b e n e f i t le n g th i s determined by law so t h a t workers know in advance how long they can r e c e i v e b e n e f i t s . The t h r e e - t i e r system d i f f e r s from th e c u r r e n t system i n t h a t workers do not know t h e maximum b e n e f i t l e n g t h ahead o f tim e. The d e c i s i o n i s made a f t e r t h e worker e n t e r s th e system as t o th e maximum e n t i t l e m e n t o f b e n e f i t s . At t h e t r a n s i ­ t i o n p o i n t s between t i e r s t h e r e c i p i e n t must pass a q u a l i f y i n g and s c re e n in g review and th e d e c i s i o n i s made concerning e l i g i b i l i t y f o r t h e second o r t h i r d t i e r s . Model o f T h r e e - T ie r UI System The model o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system r e p r e s e n t s one view o f how t h e proposed system would be d es ign ed and o p e r a t i o n a l i z e d . Modeling e f f o r t s o f t h i s n a t u r e r e q u i r e t h a t t h e e x a c t s t r u c t u r e o f t h e system and par am eter s be s p e c i f i e d in d e t a i l . Several CURRENT SYSTEM REGULAR 0 TH R E E -T IE R SYSTEM 13 T IE R 1 EXTENDED 26 TIER 2 FSB 39 FSB 52 65 TIER 3 FIGURE 1 6 .— COMPARATIVE DURATION OF BENEFITS TIME IN WEEKS 99 assumptions ab out t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system have been made which may n o t r e f l e c t t h e o r i g i n a l i n t e n t s e t f o r t h in t h e Job S e c u r i t y System proposed by Saul J . B l a u s t e i n . A key d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t th e model o f th e t h r e e - t i e r UI system d e s c r i b e d in t h i s s e c t i o n r e p r e s e n t s a stand alo n e replacement f o r th e c u r r e n t UI system. The t h r e e - t i e r UI system proposed in th e Job S e c u r i t y System con ce pt was intended to o p e r a t e in c o n j u n c t i o n with t r a i n i n g programs and o t h e r employ­ ment r e l a t e d s e r v i c e s . The t h r e e - t i e r UI system model i s s i m i l a r t o t h e UI p o r t i o n o f t h e model o f th e c u r r e n t Michigan manpower system as d e s c r i b e d p r e v i o u s l y in Chapter I I I . I t i s a l s o a continuo us flow model in which changes in t h e flows i n t o and o u t o f a s to c k c a t e g o r y produce changes in t h e magnitude o f t h a t s t o c k . c a t e g o r i e s in th e model. t i e r 3. There a r e t h r e e s to ck They a r e t h e l e v e l s o f t i e r 1, t i e r 2 and Since i n d i v i d u a l s e n t e r i n g each t i e r o f t h e system have a f ix e d l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t e n t i t l e m e n t o f 13 weeks, th e t i e r s were modeled with d e l a y f u n c t i o n s . The r a t e e n t e r i n g each t i e r is delayed f o r a time p e r io d ap proximating t h e mean le n g t h o f time r e c i p i e n t s s t a y i n each t i e r . The number o f r e c i p i e n t s i n each t i e r i s accounted f o r by i n t e g r a t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between th e r a t e e n t e r i n g and th e r a t e l e a v in g t h e d ela y f u n c t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g each t i e r . The d e l a y f u n c t i o n s used to r e p r e s e n t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system a r e t h e same ty pe as used in t h e model o f th e c u r r e n t Michigan manpower system. They a r e a l s o flow co n s erv in g d i s t r i b u t e d d e l a y s . 100 As mentioned e a r l i e r th e t h r e e - t i e r system uses f i x e d e n t i t l e m e n t where a r e c i p i e n t q u a l i f y i n g f o r b e n e f i t s in any t i e r would have a maximum e n t i t l e m e n t o f 13 weeks. The use o f d i s t r i b u t e d d e l a y s to model th e a g g r e g a t e r espons e o f each t i e r r a t h e r than f i x e d le n g th d e l a y s i s s t i l l a p p r o p r i a t e because many r e c i p i e n t s w i l l s t i l l le a v e each t i e r to r e t u r n to employment b e f o r e e x h a u s tin g b e n e f i t s . The f a c t t h a t r e c i p i e n t s w i l l f i n d employment a f t e r var ying l e n g t h s o f s t a y in a t i e r has th e e f f e c t o f d i s t r i b u t i n g t h e o u t p u t r a t e about t h e av erage time r e c i p i e n t s s t a y in a t i e r . These av erage times were determined e m p i r i c a l l y and a r e l i s t e d in Appendix H. The model diagram f o r t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system a ppears in Appendix G. To p revent c o n f u s io n in t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e model t h e r e a d e r i s urged t o c o n s u l t t h e f ollow in g ap p e n d ic e s . Appendix C p r e s e n t s t h e symbols used in t h e model and t h e e q u i v a l e n t mathe­ matical o p e r a t i o n . Table 7 p r e s e n t s a l i s t i n g o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r co rre sponding d e s c r i p t i o n . Appendix H p r e s e n t s a l i s t i n g o f a l l t h e m u l t i p l i e r para me ters used in t h e model and t h e co rres p o n d in g e q u a t i o n s o r v a l u e s . Appendix H a l s o p r e s e n t s t h e parameters o f t h e d e l a y f u n c t i o n s used t o r e p r e s e n t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system. By r e f e r r i n g t o t h e model diagram (Appendix G) i t may be seen t h a t t i e r 1 i s modeled us in g two d e la y f u n c t i o n s , T1A and TIB. Two d e l a y f u n c t i o n s were used because i t was f e l t t h a t t h e f i r s t t i e r would behave s i m i l a r l y t o t h e r e g u l a r UI program. A large p e r c e n t a g e o f r e g u l a r UI e x t r a n t s le a v e to r e t u r n to work b e f o r e 101 TABLE 7 . —T hree-T ier Model V ar iables and D e s c r i p t i o n . Tl: lev el o f t i e r 1 T2: l evel o f t i e r 2 T3: level o f t i e r 3 UI: Level o f t h r e e - t i e r UI system RUI: r a t e e n t e r i n g t h r e e - t i e r system RT1A: r a t e e n t e r i n g T1A d elay T1AR: r a t e le a v in g T1A d el ay TlLVR: t i e r 1 le a v in g r a t e RT1B: r a t e e n t e r i n g TIB d e l a y T1BR: r a t e leav in g TIB d elay Tl FEXR: t i e r 1 fo rced exhau s tio n r a t e Tl EXR: t i e r 1 exhau stion r a t e RT2A: r a t e e n t e r i n g T2A d ela y T2AR: r a t e l e a v in g T2A delay T2LVR: t i e r 2 le a v i n g r a t e RT2B: r a t e e n t e r i n g T2B del ay T2BR: r a t e leav in g T2B d ela y T2FEXR: t i e r 2 fo rced ex h au s tio n r a t e T2EXR: t i e r 2 exhaus tion r a t e ERT2: t i e r 2 reentering rate RT3A: r a t e e n t e r i n g T3A d elay T3AR: r a t e le a v in g T3A d ela y T3LVR: t i e r 3 leaving r a t e RT3B: r a t e e n t e r i n g T3B d elay T3BR: r a t e l e a v in g T3B del ay T3EXR: t i e r 3 exhau stion r a t e UIEXR: t h r e e - t i e r UI system ex h au s tio n r a t e UILVR: t h r e e - t i e r UI system l e a v i n g r a t e 102 ex h au s tin g b e n e f i t s . All t i e r 1 e n t r a n t s pass through t h e T1A d e la y . The o u t p u t o f t h i s d elay i s s p l i t i n t o two flow s: th o s e who w ill l e a v e and th o s e who w i l l c o n t i n u e i n t o t h e next t i e r o r e x h a u s t. tt25A determ in e s t h e l e a v in g r a t e (T1LVR) and p o r t i o n o f t h e flow e n t e r i n g t h e TIB d e l a y . d e la y i s a l s o s p l i t i n t o two flo w s: tt25B det er m in es th e The o u t p u t o f t h e TIB t h o s e who a r e f o r c e d to exha us t a f t e r t h e f i r s t t i e r (T1FEXR) and t h o s e allowed t o c o n tin u e i n t o t i e r 2 (T1EXR). The l e v e l in t i e r 1 i s accounted f o r by i n t e g r a t i n g t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e T1A d e l a y (RT1A) l e s s t h e r a t e l e a v in g (T1LVR) and l e s s t h e r a t e e x i t i n g t h e TIB d e la y (T1BR). Both t h e second thd t h i r d t i e r were modeled using two d ela y f u n c t i o n s as i n th e f i r s t t i e r . The only s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r ­ ence in t h e s t r u c t u r e f o r t h e second and t h i r d t i e r s i s t h e a d d i t i o n o f a r e e n t e r i n g flow t o t h e number e n t e r i n g each t i e r . This r e e n t e r ­ ing r a t e (ERT2 and ERT3) r e p r e s e n t s th o s e who r e t u r n to th e UI system a f t e r l e a v i n g t h e second o r t h i r d t i e r b e f o r e t h e i r b e n e f i t s were ex h au s te d . These r e e n t r a n t s a r e assumed t o have s p e n t a s h o r t p eriod o f time in employment. In t h e second t i e r t h e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e (ERT2) i s determined by m u l t i p l y i n g tt27C by t h e r a t e e x i t i n g t h e T2A d e l a y (T2AR). tt29C m u l t i p l i e s T3AR to In t h e t h i r d t i e r produce t h e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e f o r t h e t h i r d t i e r (ERT3). This s t r u c t u r e i n t r o d u c e s a s l i g h t tim ing e r r o r due to t h e f a c t t h a t t h e time t h a t t h e r e e n t r a n t s s p e n t in employment i s not accounted for. This e r r o r i s minimized s i n c e t h e r e e n t r a n t s a r e a small po r­ t i o n o f t h e t o t a l r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e second o r t h i r d t i e r . A 103 r e e n t e r i n g r a t e i s n o t g e n e r a te d f o r t h e f i r s t t i e r s i n c e th e e n t e r ­ ing r a t e (RT1A) i s assumed to c o n t a i n a r e e n t e r i n g component. The lev el o f r e c i p i e n t s in each t i e r ( T l, T2, and T3) a r e added to produce t h e number o f r e c i p i e n t s in t h e t h r e e - t i e r system (UI). The le a v i n g r a t e s f o r each t i e r (T1LVR, T2LVR, and T3LVR) a r e added t o g e n e r a t e a t o t a l l e a v in g r a t e (UILVR) and t h e exhaus­ t i o n r a t e s (T1FEXR, T2FEXR and T3EXR) a r e a l s o added t o g e n e r a t e a t o t a l e x h a u s tio n r a t e (UIEXR). Note t h a t t h e block diagram shows t h a t t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system (RUI) i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g the f i r s t t i e r (RT1A). T h r e e - T ie r Program D e s c r i p t i o n The computer program used t o model t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system i s s i m i l a r t o th e program f o r th e c u r r e n t UI and l a b o r f o r c e system. Both programs a r e w r i t t e n in F o r tr a n and both r e p r e s e n t d i g i t a l s im u l a t i o n s o f continuous flow systems. The major d i f f e r e n c e between t h e programs i s t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r program does not have an e x e c u t i v e program to o p e r a t e th e model program. The t h r e e - t i e r model program o p e r a t e s by i t s e l f and has no p r o v i s i o n to make changes o r a d ju stm e n ts t o th e m od el's o p e r a t i n g environment. A block diagram showing th e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model program i s shown i n Figure 17. The f i r s t o p e r a t i o n i n t h e program i s t o read in t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e d a t a used t o d r i v e th e t h r e e - t i e r model (RUI and SUR). Next i n i t i a l values a r e as s ig n e d to t h e time v a r i a b l e s and para meters o f t h e model. These para meters a r e t h e mean d elay times and o r d e r s o f th e del ay f u n c t i o n s and th e 104 READ INPUT DATA + INITIALIZE PARAMETER VALUES i INITIALIZE TIER 1 VARIABLES INITIALIZE TIER 2 VARIABLES INITIALIZE TIER 3 VARIABLES COMPUTE INITIAL TOTAL U . l . VARIABLES + DO THE FOLLOWING ONCE EACH MONTH r + 1 r 1 i 1 i i i © © DO THE FOLLOWING 5 TIMES EACH MONTH + COMPUTE TIER 3 LEVEL VARIABLES © FIGURE 1 7 . — PROGRAM FLOW CH ART FOR MODEL OF T H R E E T I E R UI SYSTEM 105 DELAY T I E R 3 RATE VARIABLES COMPUTE TI ER 2 LEVEL VARIABLES 4DELAY TI ER 2 RATE VARIABLES + COMPUTE T I E R 1 LEVEL VARIABLES + DELAY TI ER 1 RATE VARIABLES + INTERPOLATE EXOGENOUS VARIABLES I UPDATE PARAMETER VALUES + COMPUTE T I E R 1 ALGEBRAIC RATE VA RIABLES 106 © © © COMPUTE T I E R 2 ALGEBRAIC RATE VARIABLES COMPUTE TI ER 3 ALGEBRAIC RATE VARIABLES CONTINUE P R IN T O U TP U T DATA + CALCULATE AND PR IN T C O ST VARIABLES + CONTINUE + END 107 m u l t i p l i e r par ameters tt25A through ir29C. Next t h e v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d with t i e r 1, t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 a r e a s s i g n e d i n i t i a l values. This i n c l u d e s th e r a t e and l e v e l v a r i a b l e s f o r each t i e r and th e valu es o f t h e i n t e r n a l a r r a y s used in t h e d elay f u n c t i o n s . The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e t o t a l t h r e e - t i e r v a r i a b l e s , th e p r i n t i n g o f t h e i n i t i a l i z e d c o s t d ata via s u b r o u t i n e COSTA, and t h e p r i n t i n g o f t h e i n i t a l i z e d o u t p u t d a ta v i a s u b r o u t i n e ALFRED completes th e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n phase o f th e program. The program nex t fo ll o w s a loop s t r u c t u r e with each comple­ t i o n o f t h e loop r e p r e s e n t i n g one month. Month number one r e p r e s e n t s Ja nuary 1970 and month number 156 r e p r e s e n t s December 1980 which i s th e l a s t month in t h e mode l's time h o r iz o n . The monthly time i n c r e ­ ments a r e d iv id e d i n t o f i v e equal increments by an i n n e r loop to pe rm it t h e r a t e s and l e v e l s t o be c a l c u l a t e d and updated f i v e times each month. Within th e i n n e r loop t h e time v a r i a b l e i s f i r s t updated followed by the s t a t e v a r i a b l e s f o r t i e r 3. These s t a t e v a r i a b l e s in c l u d e t h e l ev el o f t i e r 3 and t h e o u t p u t s o f t h e two d elay f u n c t i o n s r e p r e s e n t i n g t i e r 3. Next t h e s t a t e v a r i a b l e s f o r t i e r 2 and t i e r 1 a r e updated i n a s i m i l a r f a s h i o n . Since t h e model v a r i a b l e s a r e updated f i v e times du rin g a month and t h e exogenous v a r i a b l e s a r e read in as monthly v a l u e s , th e exogenous v a r i a b l e s r e q u i r e i n t e r p o l a t i o n to g e n e r a t e i n t e r m e d i a t e values. This i s accomplished by using t h e i n t e r p o l a t i o n f u n c t i o n TABLI f o r t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e system (RUI) and t h e smoothed unemployment r a t e (SUR). Next a l l o f t h e model m u l t i p l i e r p ar am et er s 108 a r e updated. The updated parameters a r e then used to update the t i e r 1, t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 a l g e b t a i c r a t e v a r i a b l e s . These v a r i a b l e s a r e r e f e r r e d t o as a l g e b r a i c v a r i a b l e s to d i s t i n g u i s h them from s t a t e v a r i a b l e s which a r e th e o u t p u t s o f i n t e g r a t o r s o r d elay functions. Following t h i s t h e t o t a l t h r e e - t i e r v a r i a b l e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d and th e i n n e r loop ( f i v e times each month) i s t e r m i n a t e d . The monthly o u t p u t d a ta i s p r i n t e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e ALFRED and t h e monthly c o s t d ata i s p r i n t e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e COSTA. The monthly o r o u t e r loop i s te r m i n a te d and s e l e c t e d o u t p u t v a r i a b l e s a r e p l o t t e d by c a l l i n g s u b r o u t i n e TTYPLT. A complete F o r t r a n l i s t ­ ing o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model program and i t s s u b r o u t i n e s may be found i n Appendix J . The f o ll o w in g i s a b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f u n c t i o n s and s u b r o u t i n e s used by t h e t h r e e - t i e r model: S u b r o u ti n e DELDT ( s e e Chapter I I I , pg, 48) S ubroutin e VDEL (see Chapter I I I , pg. 48) Function TABLI ( s e e Chapter I I I , pg. 48) S u b r o u tin e ALFRED This s u b r o u t i n e p r i n t s th e month number and a l l o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model o u t p u t d a t a ( e x c e p t f o r t h e c o s t d a t a ) each time i t i s c a l l e d . S u b r o u tin e COSTA S ubroutin e COSTA uses t h e number o f r e c i p i e n t s in each t i e r t o determ ine t h e c o s t o f b e n e f i t s f o r each t i e r . It i s s i m i l a r i n o p e r a t i o n t o s u b r o u t i n e COST ( s e e Chapter I I I , pg. 4 8 ) . F i r s t t h e av erage weekly payment f o r each program i s determined using t h e same e q u a tio n developed f o r th e r e g u l a r program. This a f u n c t io n o f h i s t o r i c a l l e g i s l a t i v e changes (which a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by dummy v a r i a b l e s ) and th e month ( a l s o r e p r e s e n t e d by dummary v a r i a b l e s ) . The number 109 o f weeks compensated f o r t h e f i r s t t i e r i s c a l c u l a t e d by usin g t h e same eq u a tio n developed f o r t h e r e g u l a r program. The number o f weeks compensated f o r th e second and t h i r d t i e r s i s c a l c u l a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g th e l e v e l by 4.345 ( t h e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks in a month). The c o s t f o r each t i e r i s c a l c u l a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e average weekly payment by t h e number o f weeks compensated. S u b r o u ti n e TTYPLT This s u b r o u t i n e p l o t s s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s over time using a l i n e p r i n t e r o r hard copy t e r m i n a l . I t in c l u d e s an a u t o ­ matic s c a l i n g f e a t u r e and al low s m u l t i p l e v a r i a b l e s t o be p l o t t e d with d i f f e r e n t symbols. Function RANGE This f u n c t i o n i s used t o s e t upper and lower l i m i t s on t h e value s o f th e model m u l t i p l i e r par am eter s o f 1 . 0 and 0 . 0 . Parameter E stim a t io n f o r T h r e e - T i e r UI System The parameter e s t i m a t i o n e f f o r t f o r th e t h r e e - t i e r model d i f f e r e d from t h a t o f t h e model o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system. This i s due to th e f a c t t h a t th e t h r e e - t i e r system e x i s t e d in proposal form o n ly . Parameter e s t i m a t i o n was a system desig n e f f o r t r a t h e r than an a t t e m p t t o c a p t u r e pa ram eter s o f an e x i s t i n g system. There a r e s e v e r a l im po rt ant assumptions ab ou t t h e t h r e e t i e r system t h a t have a b e a r in g on t h e parameter e s t i m a t e s which should be d i s c u s s e d . The f i r s t i s t h a t th e r a t e e n t e r i n g th e t h r e e - t i e r system i s assumed t o be t h e same as t h e r a t e e n t e r i n g th e c u r r e n t UI system (RUI). I m p l i c i t in t h i s assumption i s t h a t th e employment q u a l i f i c a t i o n require m en ts f o r e l i g i b i l i t y to r e c e i v e b e n e f i t s i s th e same under both systems. Another im p o rta n t assump­ t i o n co nce rns t h e flow o f i n d i v i d u a l s i n t i e r 1 r e t u r n i n g to no employment. The par am eter d eter m in in g t h i s flow in t h e model of th e c u r r e n t r e g u l a r program ( tt22A) was e m p i r i c a l l y determined with th e a i d o f h i s t o r i c a l d a t a . Since i t was d i f f i c u l t to e s t i m a t e i f t h i s flow would behave d i f f e r e n t l y in a 13 week f ix e d e n t i t l e m e n t system, th e assumption was made t h a t t h e flow would behave th e same as in t h e c u r r e n t system. The par am eter governing t h i s flow in t i e r 1 ( tt25A) was presumed equal t o t h e pa ram eter in t h e model o f t h e r e g u l a r program (ir22A). Note t h a t tt25B = 1 - tt25A as in the model o f t h e r e g u l a r program. A d d itio n al assumptions were a l s o made in t h e c onversion o f t h e l e v e l s o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system t o c o s t f i g u r e s . Cost f i g u r e s f o r th e t h r e e - t i e r system a r e g e n e r a t e d by c o n v e r t i n g th e le v e l t o t h e number o f weeks compensated and m u l t i p l y i n g t h i s by t h e average weekly payment. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e l e v e l and t h e number o f weeks compensated i s t h e same f o r t i e r 1 as f o r t h e r e g u l a r program. Recall t h a t t h i s h i s t o r i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r t h e r e g u l a r program was e s t i m a t e d usin g r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s as d e s c r i b e d in t h e s e c t i o n on c o n v e r t i n g t h e c u r r e n t UI model o u t p u t to c o s t s (Chapter I I I , pg. 69). The r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e l e v e l s o f t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 and th e number o f weeks compensated in each t i e r was assumed t o be 4.345 times t h e l e v e l i n each t i e r (4.345 i s th e number o f s t a n d a r d i z e d weeks i n a month). Also th e av er ag e weekly payment in a l l t h r e e t i e r s was presumed equal to t h e av erage weekly payment f o r t h e r e g u l a r program. The av erage weekly payment f i g u r e f o r th e r e g u l a r program was e s t i m a t e d using r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s on h i s t o r i c a l d a t a (Chapter I I I , pg. 69) . Ill E stim ates f o r t h e parameters d eterm in ing t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s who remain in t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 u n t i l e x h a u s tin g bene­ f i t s were provided by Saul J . B l a u s t e i n o f t h e W. E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research. 27 P oint e s ti m a t e s o f t h e s e pa ra meters (tt27B f o r t i e r 2 and tt29B f o r t i e r 3) were given f o r both low and high unemployment c o n d i t i o n s . I t was assumed t h a t 6% and 12% unemployment r a t e s corres ponded t o t h e low and high unemployment c o n d i t i o n s so t h a t t h e s e par am eter s could be l i n e a r f u n c t io n s o f t h e s t a t e unemployment r a t e . Since flows a r e conserved in t h e model th e para meters determining t h e flow o f i n d i v i d u a l s in t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 who leave b e f o r e e x h a u s tin g b e n e f i t s a r e given by t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p tt27A = 1 - tt27B and tt29A = 1 - tt29B. The para me ters governing t h e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e s f o r t i e r 2 and t i e r 3 (tt27C determ ines ERT2 and tt29C deter m ine s ERT3) were e s ti m a t e d to be s i m i l a r in magnitude to the par am eter de te rm in ing th e r e e n t e r i n g r a t e f o r t h e model o f t h e extended program. The d e t e r m in a t i o n o f t h e par am eter s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e s c r e e n ­ ing o f i n d i v i d u a l s between t i e r s was t r e a t e d as a desig n e f f o r t r a t h e r than an a tte m p t t o e s t i m a t e pa ram eter s a r i s i n g from th e t h r e e - t i e r concept. I t i s in t h i s ar ea t h a t t h e model o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system d i f f e r s s i g n i f i c a n t l y from t h e system proposed by Saul J . Blaustein. 28 I f th e t h r e e - t i e r system i s to be r e s p o n s i v e t o economic c o n d i t i o n s then th e s c r e e n i n g proc es s between t i e r s should a l s o respond to economic c o n d i t i o n s . This means t h a t t h e eas e o f which c la im a n ts a r e a b l e t o pass from one t i e r t o t h e n e x t s u c c e s ­ s i v e t i e r should be r e l a t e d t o economic c o n d i t i o n s . Unemployment 112 r a t e was used to determine th e t r a n s i t i o n p r o p o r t i o n between t i e r s because i t i s an e a s i l y o b t a i n a b l e measure t h a t i s g e n e r a l l y ac ce pted as i n d i c a t i n g t h e d i f f i c u l t y t h a t t h e unemployed e x p er ien ce in f in d i n g employment. ( tt26B and tt28B) The des ig n o f t h e t r a n s i t i o n parameters was based on two c r i t e r i a : 1. During p e r io d s o f low unemployment, very few people should q u a l i f y f o r t i e r 2 o r t i e r 3 b u t a t high unemploy­ ment r a t e s most c la im a n t s would be e l i g i b l e f o r t i e r 2 o r t i e r 3. 2. The c r i t e r i a f o r e n t r a n c e t o t i e r 3 should be s t r i c t e r than t h a t to e n t e r t i e r 2. The t r a n s i t i o n pa ram eter s which model t h e s c re e n in g process a r e l i n e a r f u n c t io n s o f t h e s t a t e unemployment r a t e . The p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e flow e x i t i n g th e f i r s t and second t i e r s t h a t i s e i t h e r f o rc ed to e xhaus t or a b le to c o n t in u e i n t o t h e next t i e r a t unemployment r a t e s varying from 3% to 18% i s shown in Table 8. The f i g u r e s under th e columns l a b e l e d ’a b l e t o contine* corre spo nd to t h e values o f 7t26B and tt28B wh ile th e f i g u r e s under th e column l a b e l e d ' f o r c e d e x h a u s t e e s ' cor re spon d t o th e values o f tt26A and tt28A. No one wi ll be a b l e to e n t e r t i e r 2 a t unemployment r a t e s o f under 5% and th e c u t o f f f o r e n t e r i n g t i e r 3 i s 6.5% unemployment r a t e . At unemploy­ ment r a t e s o f 14% o r h i g h e r a l l t i e r 1 ex h au s tees w i l l be e l i g i b l e f o r t i e r 2 and a t unemployment r a t e s o f 16% o r h i g h e r a l l t i e r 2 exhaustees a r e e l i g i b l e f o r t i e r 3. TABLE 8 . --S ta tu s o f UI R ecipients a t Tier Transition Points by Program. T ier 1 T ier 2 Unemployment Rate Forced Exhaustees Able To Continue Forced Exhaustees Able To Continue .030 .035 .040 .045 .050 .055 .060 .065 .070 .075 .080 .085 .090 .095 .100 .105 .110 .115 .120 .125 .130 .135 .140 .145 .150 .155 .160 .165 .170 .175 .180 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .944 .888 .833 .777 .722 .666 .611 .555 .500 .444 .388 .333 .277 .222 .166 .111 .055 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 .001 .056 .112 .167 .223 .278 .334 .389 .445 .500 .556 .612 .667 .723 .778 .834 .889 .945 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .999 .944 .888 .833 .777 .722 .666 .610 .555 .499 .444 .388 .333 .277 .222 .166 .111 .055 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 .001 .056 .112 .167 .223 .278 .334 .390 .445 .501 .556 .612 .667 .723 .778 .834 .889 .945 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 CHAPTER V EXPERIMENT AND RESULTS Perspective Before p r e s e n t i n g i n d e t a i l t h e experim ental r e s u l t s , th e n a t u r e and o b j e c t i v e o f th e ex per im en t i t s e l f should be d i s c u s s e d . The experiment c o n s i s t s o f o p e r a t i n g both th e model o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system and t h e model o f th e proposed t h r e e - t i e r UI system with i d e n t i c a l exogenous in p u ts and comparing th e o u t p u t s . Both h y p o t h e t i c a l and h i s t o r i c a l exogenous in p u t s were used to g e n e r a t e system r e s p o n s e s . This appe ar s to be a simple comparative e x p e r i ­ ment from which c o n c lu s io n s can be drawn ab out t h e r e l a t i v e res ponse o f each system. However i t must be kept in mind t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r modeling e f f o r t was a des ig n endeav or. The t h r e e - t i e r s t r u c ­ t u r e was des igne d t o be a s t a n d al one replacement f o r t h e c u r r e n t UI system t h a t would meet th e e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a p r e s e n t e d in t h e s ta t e m e n t o f t h e problem i n Chapter I . The experiment should be viewed as a dem on stration o f how well t h e s p e c i f i c des ig n o f the t h r e e - t i e r system meets t h e e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a . Conclusions drawn ab ou t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system and i t s performance r e l a t i v e t o the c u r r e n t system must be l i m i t e d t o th e modeled v e r s i o n o f t h e t h r e e t i e r system and not th e co nce pt in g e n e r a l . 114 115 The comparison o f t h e c u r r e n t and t h r e e - t i e r system model r es po nses should be used t o determine t h e de sig n i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r a proposed t h r e e - t i e r system. I f a replacement i s d e s i r e d f o r th e c u r r e n t system t h a t behaves s i m i l a r l y t o t h e model then t h e new system should r e f l e c t th e s t r u c t u r e and para meters o f t h e model. For example each t i e r should pro v id e a f i x e d 13 weeks o f b e n e f i t s and th e s c r e e n i n g pr o c e ss between t i e r s should behave f oll ow ing c o n d i t i o n s o f unemployment as shown in Table 8 (Chapter IV). The t h r e e - t i e r model i s i nte nded t o pr ovid e a useful to o l f o r r e l a t i n g and comparing a l t e r n a t i v e d e s ig n s and system resp o n s es with th e be hav ior o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system. Comparative Response Ana ly sis Using Hyp othet ic al Inputs To ga in an i n s i g h t i n t o both t h e t h r e e - t i e r and t h e c u r r e n t UI system rep onse s t o changing economic c o n d i t i o n s , a s e r i e s o f h y p o t h e t i c a l unemployment r a t e (UR) p r o f i l e s were imposed on t h e models o f both systems. To e l i m i n a t e t h e e f f e c t s o f changes in t h e r a t e o f pe ople e n t e r i n g t h e UI system (RUI), a c o n s t a n t valu e o f 60,000 e n t r a n t s per month was used. This i s a r e a s o n a b l e f i g u r e t h a t approximates t h e h i s t o r i c a l av er ag e f o r RUI. Both models were o p e r a te d with t h e same exogenous i n p u t s (RUI and unemployment r a t e ) . These i n p u t c o n d i t i o n s a r e somewhat a r t i f i c i a l s i n c e in r e a l i t y both RUI and t h e unemployment r a t e vary t o g e t h e r . For example an i n c r e a s e i n RUI u s u a l l y o ccurs w it h a r i s e in t h e unemployment r a t e i f t h i s r i s e i s due to workers l e a v i n g employment because o f 116 poor economic c o n d i t i o n s . The model o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system was o p e r a te d w ith t h e extended program on a t a l l ti m e s . The l e v e l s (number o f people) o f t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs and t h e i r sum a r e a v a i l a b l e to a s s e s s t h e e f f e c t o f th e extended program o p e r a t i n g a t any tim e. The f i r s t unemployment r a t e i n p u t used t o d r i v e t h e models was a s e r i e s o f s t e p i n c r e a s e s from 3 t o 17 p e r c e n t given by t h e f o llo w in g p r o f i l e : Month 1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101 111 121 131 141 - - - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 156 Unemployment Rate 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% The r e s u l t s o f t h i s a r e shown in Figure 18. The l e v e l , extended le v e l and r e g u l a r p lu s extended l e v e l o f t h e model o f the c u r r e n t UI system a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e l ' s , 2 ' s and 3 ' s respectively. system. The 4 ' s r e p r e s e n t th e l e v e l o f t h e t o t a l t h r e e - t i e r Notice t h a t a t unemployment r a t e s from 3 t o 8 p e r c e n t (months 1 - 60) t h e t h r e e - t i e r l e v e l i s below t h a t o f t h e r e g u l a r program and from 9 t o 15 p e r c e n t (months 61 - 130) t h e t h r e e - t i e r le v e l i s between t h e r e g u l a r and r e g u l a r plus extended l e v e l s . At REGULAR + EXTENDED LEVEL a n y m m i n w w REGULAR LEVEL ■t m x m* i ♦ ♦ ♦ * ♦ ♦ ♦ + + + + ♦♦ + ♦ ■* ♦ ♦ ♦ c* v ^ «r 4> u \ i i 4 v . *x h « v KSNNK KKKSS J & ♦ + IlJ L f lU N X li Figure 1 8 . —Continued. ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ <• x llU l ♦ * i ♦ ♦ ♦ 4 4 4 + + * * r r j u i i J J i l , U> J t i t U . ' I M r 120 unemployment r a t e s above 15 p e r c e n t (months 131 - 156) t h e l e v e l o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system exceeds t h a t o f th e r e g u l a r plus extended programs. This shows t h e e f f e c t o f t h e unemployment r a t e on th e s c r e e n i n g procedure between t i e r s in t h e t h r e e - t i e r system. As unemployment i n c r e a s e s t h e t h r e e - t i e r system provid e s g r a d u a l l y i n c r e a s i n g amounts o f s u p p o r t . In c o n t r a s t t o t h i s t h e c u r r e n t system would respond in a d i s c r e t e manner by a c t i v a t i n g t h e extended program. Figure 19 shows t h e res ponse o f both models t o a s e r i e s of s p ik e and s t e p changes in th e unemployment r a t e . The numbers on t h e p l o t have t h e same meaning as b e f o r e e x c e p t t h a t t h e le v e l o f t h e extended program by i t s e l f i s not shown. To i n j e c t a degree o f r e a l i s m in t h e unemployment r a t e p r o f i l e t h e changes have a s lo p e o f two p e r c e n t p er month. This was f e l t to be a r e a s o n a b le maximum r a t e o f change f o r unemployment c o n d i t i o n s in t h e s t a t e . S e c tio n A o f Figure 19 shows t h e res ponse o f t h e two models t o a s p ik e i n c r e a s e in t h e unemployment r a t e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e f o ll o w ­ ing p r o f i l e : Month 10 - 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 - 29 Unemployment Rate 6% 8% 10% 12% 10% 8% 6% Notice t h a t t h e o u t p u t o f th e t h r e e - t i e r model peaks sooner ( i n d i c a t i n g a f a s t e r resp onse) th an t h e o u t p u t o f th e r e g u l a r S ection A S ection B ReguLar and Extended Level > CM V \ Three T .er Level UN UN fO CXI UN MONTH NO* FIGURE 1 9 . —S e n s i t i v i t y Analysis o f Changes in Unemployment R ates , Constant RUI. S ection D S ection 8 Regulc p «nd .atten d ed Level .1 If8+06 .168406 Section C 75K+05 .96B-K)? .128+06 Three T ie r Level UN IfN Un vO UN CO MONTH NO* FIGURE 19.--Continued. U\ CO UN Ov 123 program and a l s o t h e sum o f t h e o u t p u t s o f t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs. A f a s t e r r espon s e o f theris in g is alsoindicated portion of thet h r e e - t i e r by a s t e e p e r s lo pe o u t p u t when compared t o t h e r e g u l a r o r r e g u l a r p lu s extended o u t p u t s . A s i m i l a r r e sp o n s e i s a p p a r e n t in S e c t io n B o f Figure 19 which shows t h e e f f e c t on both models o f a s t e p i n c r e a s e in t h e unemployment r a t e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e f o llo w in g p r o f i l e : Month 30 - 35 36 37 38-49 Unemployment Rate 6% 8% 10% 12% The l e v e l s o f both models a t a c o n s t a n t unemployment r a t e o f 12% from months 50 - 58 i s shown in S e c t io n C o f Figu re 19. The r e g u l a r program c o n t a i n s t h e few es t number o f people (130,000) followed by t h e t h r e e - t i e r system (136,000) w ith t h e t o t a l o f t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs c o n t a i n i n g t h e most people (15 4,000 ). S e c tio n D o f Figure 19 shows t h e resp on se o f both models to a s p ik e d e c r e a s e in t h e unemployment r a t e r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e f o ll o w ­ ing p r o f i l e : Month 59 - 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 - 74 Unemployment Rate 12% 10% 8% 6% 8% 10% 12% 124 The t h r e e - t i e r model i s ag ai n more r e s p o n s iv e ( t h e trough appear s e a r l i e r and t h e s lo p e o f a f a l l i s g r e a t e r ) t o t h e change in t h e unemployment r a t e th an t h e c u r r e n t m odel's r e g u l a r program and th e sum o f t h e r e g u l a r and extended programs. The same p a t t e r n o f re sp onse i s a l s o a p p a r e n t i n S e c tio n E o f Figure 19 which shows th e e f f e c t o f a s t e p dec r e a se in th e unemployment r a t e given by t h e f o llo w in g p r o f i l e : Unempl oyment Rate Month 75 - 79 80 81 82 - 92 12% 10% 8% 6% S e c ti o n E a l s o shows t h e r espons e o f both models t o a c o n s t a n t unemployment r a t e o f 6%. Note t h a t t h e l e v e l o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system (87,000) i s below both t h e r e g u l a r program (94,000) and t h e r e g u l a r plus t h e extended programs (111,000) o f t h e c u r r e n t system (measured a t month 88 b e f o r e a programmed i n c r e a s e occu rs in RUI f o r t h e c u r r e n t model t o compensate f o r t h e growth in covered employment). Comparative Response An al ysis Using H i s t o r i c a l Inpu ts The h y p o t h e t i c a l exogenous i n p u t s analyzed p r e v i o u s l y were us eful in determ ining t h e r e l a t i v e r es po nses o f th e two systems. I t i s a l s o h e lp f u l to examine how t h e two systems compare under r e a l world c o n d i t i o n s . Recall t h a t both th e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e UI system and t h e unemployment r a t e vary s im u l ta n e o u s l y i n t h e a c tu a l 125 o p e r a t i o n o f th e UI system. To t e s t how th e two systems r e a c t with r e a l i s t i c i n p u t s , h i s t o r i c a l values o f th e r a t e e n t e r i n g t h e c u r r e n t UI system (RUI) and t h e unemployment r a t e were used as t h e exogenous in p u ts f o r both models. For t h i s experiment h i s t o r i c a l d a ta from J anuary , 1970 through May, 1977 (months 1 - 89) were used. A comparison o f t h e l e v e l s (number o f people) o f the t h r e e t i e r and c u r r e n t UI systems i s shown in Figu re 20. The l e v e l o f th e r e g u l a r , ex te nded, r e g u l a r plus e xtended, and t h e t h r e e - t i e r models a r e r e p r e s e n t e d by th e l ' s , 2 ' s , 3 ' s and 4 ' s r e s p e c t i v e l y . The extended program was a c t i v a t e d du rin g t h e times i t had t r i g g e r e d on h i s t o r i c a l l y . For t h i s reason t h e r e l e v a n t comparison should be between t h e r e g u l a r plus extended l ev el and t h e t h r e e - t i e r l e v e l . A general co n c lu s io n i s t h a t t h e le v e l o f th e t h r e e - t i e r system ( 4 ' s ) i s lower than t h a t o f t h e c u r r e n t system ( 3 ' s ) ex cep t durin g p e r i o d s when both systems e x p e r i e n c e c o n s i s t e n t l y high l e v e l s (months 50 - 53 and 62 - 71). This i n d i c a t e s t h a t th e t h r e e - t i e r system provid e s s l i g h t l y more s u p p o rt du r in g p e r io d s o f high unemployment. The av erage l e v e l by q u a r t e r f o r both systems i s p r e se n te d in Table 9 ( n o te t h a t t h e l e v e l o f th e c u r r e n t system i s t h e r e g u l a r p lu s t h e extended program when i t was a c t i v e historically). In comparing th e c o s t s o f t h e two sy stem s, t h e average weekly b e n e f i t amount was assumed to be t h e same in t h e t h r e e - t i e r system a s i t had been h i s t o r i c a l l y in th e c u r r e n t system. The r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e number o f weeks compensated and t h e l e v e l KEY 3 or * LEVEL OF PROGRAM . Ml'* '1-1 .*■*-♦•04 .a?,>ae ,iv»no Regular p lu s Extended* Three T ier* V *• f u 'i r » e ^ «i »i t V* •< »* ** *4 *1 *•» *1 *■! »•* M *M *\» <\i «\j l\ f\i c\| I* P PO FT K r»* ** K »*.* 4 J j t 1 J • j J 1 »r- K *' !»*> b . Ui tr. U MONTH N O . FIGURE 2 0 . --Comparison o f Thre e- Tier Model Level Output with H i s t o r i c a l Level o f Regular Plus Extended UI, January 1970 - June 1977. Regular p lu s Extended* 3 o r * Three T iers k o. »7i. tn r *. r »x -i u. *. e r " i if •* r n1 C * f ju 1 r . 1 T C 4 t ,,.i f .*. *. f. n r r* r* *• r . r* i% - -r « *r -r* -t ■* t % , < t -c o «j* -« 132 TABLE 10.--Cost of UI by System. Three-Tier System Difference ( C u r re n t Minus Three-Tier) Quar ter Cu rren t System 1970.1 1970.2 1970.3 1970.4 61465000. 63465000. 80577000. 74792000. 70382135. 55154653. 64485195. 58226671. -8917135. 8310347. 16091805. 16565329. 1971.1 1971.2 1971.3 1971.4 124215000. 97857000. 82502000. 74489000. 83047774. 58212340. 67437466. 48464755. 41167226. 39644660. 15064534. 26024245. 1972.1 1972.2 1972.3 1972.4 100537000. 60001000. 65279000. 42782000. 72853571. 53390157. 79874107. 38747520. 27683429. 6610843. -14595107. 4034480. 1973.1 1973.2 1973.3 1973.4 66812000. 44643000. 37944000. 37974000. 48690866. 33720286. 37533273. 33852852. 18121134. 10922714. 410727. 4121148. 1974.1 1974.2 1974.3 1974.4 130365000. 141186000. 122953000. 142919000. 144542325. 152706288. 129978989. 123643463. -14177325. -11520288. -7025989. 19275537. 1975.1 1975.2 1975.3 1975.4 336435000. 289843000. 267194000. 220292000. 327809035. 320143698. 313325607. 219877438. 8625965. -30300698. -46131607. 414562. 1976.1 1976.2 1976.3 1976.4 245425000. 171093000. 148495247. 151648285. 220201277. 148367032. 148354719. 132454221. 25223723. 22725968. 140528. 19194064. 1977.1 206307742. 172462093. 33845649. CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS The s im u l a t i o n model o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e and unemployment in su r a n c e system was intend ed t o be an experimental tool f o r e v a l u a t ­ ing and a s s e s s i n g t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s t a t e l e v e l manpower programs and p o l i c i e s . A c o n s i d e r a b l e amount o f e f f o r t was s p e n t in d e r i v in g and r e f i n i n g h i s t o r i c a l d a t a f o r use as exogenous d r i v i n g v a r i a b l e s , t o develop th e c o s t co n v er sio n e q u a t i o n s , and t o use as a s ta n d a r d f o r r efin em en t and v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e unemployment i n s u r a n c e model. This f a c i l i t a t e d t h e a d ju stm en t and re fin e m e n t o f t h e UI model so t h a t i t i s a b l e t o reproduce h i s t o r i c a l b e h a v io r with r e a s o n a b l e a c cu r acy . This was demonstrated in Chapter I I I , where t h e v a l i d a ­ t i o n o f t h e UI model was d i s c u s s e d and a l s o p r e s e n t e d g r a p h i c a l l y . A general c o n c lu s io n i s t h a t t h e modeling t e c h n i q u e works and t h e model o f t h e UI system i s a us eful r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e r e a l system. The t h r e e - t i e r UI system was o r i g i n a l l y proposed by Saul B l a u s t e i n a s a component o f an i n c l u s i v e Job S e c u r i t y system d es ign ed t o channel unemployed i n d i v i d u a l s through t r a i n i n g , c o u n s e lin g and o t h e r employment r e l a t e d programs. In t h i s d i s s e r ­ t a t i o n t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI conc ep t was modified t o be a s ta n d alo n e r eplacem ent f o r t h e e x i s t i n g UI system w i th o u t employment r e l a t e d 133 134 s e r v i c e s o r programs. The development and v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r UI system was a s s i s t e d by th e knowledge gained in c o n s t r u c t i n g t h e model o f t h e e x i s t i n g UI system. The be h a v i o r and magnitude o f t h e model p a r a m e te rs , th e c o s t co nver si on methodology and th e exogenous i n p u t s were a l l ad apted from th e s im u l a t i o n model o f t h e c u r r e n t UI system. Since h i s t o r i c a l d a ta f o r th e t h r e e - t i e r UI system i s n o n e x i s t a n t , th e v a l i d a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model r e s t s to a l a r g e e x t e n t on t h e e x p e r ie n c e t r a n s f e r r e d from theco nstruc­ t i o n o f t h e model o f t h e e x i s t i n g UI system. A s e t o f des ig n and e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a to a s s i s t in t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f th e t h r e e - t i e r were i d e n t i f i e d UI model and to a s s e s s th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f th e t h r e e - t i e r UI concept r e l a t i v e t o t h e e x i s t i n g UI system. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f th e t h r e e - t i e r UI system was dem onstrated by o p e r a t i n g both models in a changing unemployment environment. A s e r i e s o f h y p o t h e t i c a l unemployment r a t e p r o f i l e s as well as h i s t o r i c a l exogenous in p u t s were imposed on both models. As shown in Chapter V, t h e model o f th e t h r e e - t i e r system met t h e e v a l u a t i o n c r i t e r i a b e t t e r than th e model o f t h e c u r r e n t system. In resp ons e to a s p ik e i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e in t h e unemployment r a t e , a peak o r tro ugh w i l l occu r in t h e t h r e e t i e r m o d el's o u t p u t b e f o r e i t occurs in t h e c u r r e n t system m o d el's output. This i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system responds to changing unemployment c o n d i t i o n s f a s t e r than the c u r r e n t system. I t was a l s o shown t h a t t h e t h r e e - t i e r system pr o v id e s t h e same l e v e l o f c l i e n t s u p p o rt as t h e c u r r e n t system dur in g times o f high 135 unemployment and over extended p e r i o d s o f time i t w i l l c o s t l e s s than t h e c u r r e n t system. By o p e r a t i n g both models with over seven y e a r s o f h i s t o r i c a l exogenous i n p u t s , t h e t o t a l c o s t o f th e t h r e e t i e r system was 6.7% l e s s than t h e t o t a l c o s t o f t h e c u r r e n t system. I t must be k e p t in mind t h a t t h i s ex per im ent only shows th e degree to which th e p a r t i c u l a r v e r s i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system as modeled meets t h e c r i t e r i a . The r e a l s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e co mpar ative re sp ons e a n a l y s i s o f th e two systems l i e s in t h e d e s ig n i m p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e implemen­ t a t i o n o f a t h r e e - t i e r replacement f o r t h e c u r r e n t system. A three- t i e r system could be implemented t h a t performs s i m i l a r t o th e modeled v e r s i o n provided t h a t t h e para meters and s t r u c t u r e o f th e model a r e t r a n s l a t e d i n t o r e a l i t y . Implementation o f t h e b a s ic s t r u c t u r e o f th e t h r e e - t i e r system c o n s i s t i n g o f t h r e e s e r i a l programs with f ix e d e n t i t l e m e n t should not pose major problems. However th e c u r r e n t system does not have a s c r e e n i n g pr ocedure and some e f f o r t would be r e q u i r e d in d e s ig n i n g and implementing t h e p rocess f o r th e s c r e e n i n g and review o f c l a i m a n t s between t i e r s . The s c re e n in g p ar am et er s r e f l e c t i n g t h i s p r o c e ss were d e s c ri b e d p r e v i o u s l y in Chapter IV. I f th e t h r e e - t i e r system i s to be implemented f o ll o w in g t h e d es ig n r e f l e c t e d in t h e model, th e a c t u a l s c r e e n i n g p r o ced u res would have to c l o s e l y approximate t h e s c r e e n i n g e f f e c t in t h e model. The p r e c e d in g d i s c u s s i o n p o i n t s o u t a p o s s i b l e l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r app ro ac h. The s c r e e n i n g p r o c e s s in th e 136 t h r e e - t i e r model i s f a i r l y f l e x i b l e allow ing from 0 t o 1 0 0 % o f th e c l a i m a n t s to pass on t o t h e nex t t i e r depending on t h e unemploy­ ment r a t e . The q u e s ti o n i s how would such a p r o c e ss be implemented in an a c t u a l t h r e e - t i e r system? One p o s s i b l e method would be to make t h e e l i g i b i l i t y f o r t h e n e x t t i e r a f u n c t io n o f both th e work e x p e r i e n c e in t h e base p e r io d prec ed ing t h e f i r s t c la im and th e unemployment r a t e . A s c r e e n in g and review pr o c e ss t h a t i s a f u n c t i o n o f th e unemployment r a t e r e p r e s e n t s a d e v i a t i o n from th e in s u r a n c e co ncept o f unemployment i n s u r a n c e . Workers would only know t h e minimum b e n e f i t d u r a t i o n and n o t t h e maximum l e n g t h o f b e n e f i t s as in t h e c u r r e n t system ( note t h a t t h e t r i g g e r i n g o f th e extended b e n e f i t s program pr o v id e s some u n c e r t a i n t y in th e c u r r e n t system ). Areas For A d d it io n a l Research An e x t e n s io n o f t h i s r e s e a r c h could proceed in two d i f f e r e n t areas. The f i r s t would be t o c o n t i n u e t h e e v a l u a t i o n and desig n o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system. I t was re co gnized t h a t t h e r e s p o n s i v e ­ nes s o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r model depends on c e r t a i n p a r a m e t e r s ; a d d i t i o n a l r e s e a r c h could i nvolv e a s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s o f t h e s e p a r a m e te r s . I f more in f o r m a ti o n becomes a v a i l a b l e conce rning th e s p e c i f i c form o f t h e t h r e e - t i e r system a s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s could i n d i c a t e a r e a s f o r more d e t a i l e d model development. For example, t h e param eter s r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e s c r e e n i n g pr o c e ss could be r e p l a c e d by a d d i t i o n a l model s t r u c t u r e . I f t h e s c r e e n i n g pro ce du re c o n s i s t e d o f an i n d i v i d u a l i n t e r v i e w and e v a l u a t i o n , th en t h e a d d i t i o n a l 137 s t r u c t u r e might r e p r e s e n t th e th ro u ghput c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e in t e r v i e w , c a p a c i t y l i m i t a t i o n s and any d e l a y s caused by th e proce dure . The model would a l s o be a use ful tool f o r e v a l u a t i n g re fin e m e n t s and m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e t h r , e e - t i e r co n c e p t. The preceeding d i s c u s s i o n concerned r e s e a r c h e f f o r t s in th e a r e a o f i n v e s t i g a t i n g t h e t h r e e - t i e r system. Follow on e f f o r t s could a l s o proceed in the d i r e c t i o n o f using t h e modeling tech niqu e and t h e ex p e r i e n c e gained in modeling UI systems t o de sig n and e v a l u a t e new systems. For example t h e c u r r e n t and t h e t h r e e - t i e r systems a r e both s e r i a l d e s ig n s with the o u t p u t o f one program or t i e r becoming t h e i n p u t t o t h e n e x t. Another p o s s i b i l i t y would be a system u t i l i z i n g two o r t h r e e p a r a l l e l programs with each having a d i f f e r e n t l e n g t h and d i f f e r e n t re quire m en ts f o r e n t r y . A p a r a l l e l design would o n ly r e q u i r e an i n i t i a l s c r e e n i n g t o determ ine program e l i g i b i l i t y and would e l i m i n a t e t h e need f o r t h e t r i g g e r i n g mechanism found in t h e c u r r e n t system. Models o f v a r io u s p a r a l l e l and s e r i a l systems and p o s s i b l e combinations o f th e two approaches could be e v a l u a t e d a g a i n s t th e c u r r e n t system in an e f f o r t to s e l e c t a b e t t e r design f o r t h e UI system. FOOTNOTES FOOTNOTES Saul J . B l a u s t e i n , A New Job S e c u r i t y System f o r Michigan {Study o f a l t e r n a t i v e s t r a t e g i e s f o r t h e Michigan Unemployment In su ra nce Program; Kalamazoo, Michigan: The W.E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Resear ch, November, 1977). 2 J . Kenneth White and Lawrence J e n i c k e , Manpower P l a n n i n g : A Macro Viewpoint (paper prepared f o r p r e s e n t a t i o n a t Midwest Academy o f Management, November, 1976), pp. 2-3. 3 F i r s t Annual Report to t h e P r e s i d e n t and t h e Congress o f th e National Commission f o r Manpower P o l ic y : Towardaf National Manpower P olicy ( r e p o r t No. 3, October , 1975). 4 For a d i s c u s s i o n o f t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f the.unemployment in s u r a n c e system see "Unemployment and Income S e c u r i t y : Goals f o r th e 1970's" (The W.E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research, J u l y 1969), pp. 2-5 and "Unemployment In su ra nce O b je c tiv e and I s s u e s : An Agenda f o r Research and Eva lu a tion" by Saul B l a u s t e i n (The W.E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Resear ch, November 1968), p p . 5-12. 5 B l a u s t e i n , November, 1977. ^"Developments in S imulation in Social and A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Science" S c h u ltz and S u l l i v a n in Guetzkow, K o tl e r and S c h u l t z , Simulation in Social and A d m i n i s t r a t i v e Science ( P r e n t i c e H a l l , 1972), pp. 3-47. 7 Ib id . 8 Ibid. g John C. Chambers, S a t i n d e r K. M u llic k , and Donald D. Smith, "How to choose th e r i g h t f o r e c a s t i n g te chnique" Harvard Business Review ( J u l y - August 1971):45-74. ^ R a l p h E. Smith, A Simulation Model o f t h e Demographic Composition o f Employment Composition o f Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force P a r t i c i p a t i o n : S t a t u s Report (The Urban I n s t i t u t e , July'T5747*------------- ----------------------- — 139 140 Stephen T. Marston, "An Unemployment Insurance Model" Appendix D o f On t h e f e a s b i l i t v o f a a l a b o r market in form ation system, volume 2 Malcolm S. Cohen (U.S. Department o f Labor, Manpower A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , June 1974), pp. 113-180. 12 Jay W. F o r r e s t e r , Urban Dynamics (Cambridqe, Massachusetts: MIT P r e s s , 1969). 13 C o l le c t e d Papers o f Jay W. F o r r e s t e r {Cambridge, Massachusetts': Wr ight-Alien P r e s s , I n c . , 1975). 14 Thomas Manetsch and Gerald Park, System A nalys is and Sim ulation With A p p l i c a t i o n s t o Economic and Social Systems (M.S.U Department o f Engineering Research, November 1973), Chapter 9. 15 I b i d . , Chapter 10. ^ M i c h i g a n Bureau o f Employment and T r a i n i n g , Michigan Manpower S imulation Model, O per at ors Guide ( v e r s i o n 1 .1) (Lansing, Michigan Department o f Labor, Jan uar y 1978). ^ R o b e r t W. Ll ew el ly n, P r o f e s s o r o f I n d u s t r i a l E ng in ee ri ng, North C arolina S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , Fordyn, An I n d u s t r i a l Dynamics S im ulator ( P r i v a t e l y p r i n t e d by Typing S e r v i c e , R a l e ig h , North C a r o l i n a , 1965). 18 Manetsch, c h a p t e r 10, p. 33. 19 Llew ellyn, pp. 4-22. 20 U.S. Department o f H e a l t h , Education and Welfare in c o o p e r a ti o n w ith t h e Michigan Department o f Social S e r v i c e s , P r o f i l e o f th e Michigan ADC C a s e l o a d , J a n u a ry , 1971 s t u d y - - r e f e r to Table A-1 6 ; Ja n u a ry , 1973 s tu d y — r e f e r to Table R-18. 21 I b i d . 22Ibid. 23 Sheryl Dahl he and E. Lynn Savage, General A s s i s ta n c e in Michigan: A P r o f i l e o f Program and R e c ip i e n t C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (Lansing: Michigan Department o f Social S e r v i c e s , J u l y , 1975), p. 46. 24 Harvey J . H i l a s k i , The S t a t u s o f Research on Gross Changes in t h e Labor Force (D i v is io n o f Employment and Unemployment A n a l y s i s , U.S. Bureau o f Labor S t a t i s t i c s ) . 141 Ralph E. Smith, The Discouraged Worker in a f u l l Employment Economy (Washington, D.C.: The Urban I n s t i t u t e , Ja n uary 28, 1974), p. \ Z . ^ B l a u s t e i n , November 1977. 27Saul J . B l a u s t e i n , A New Job S e c u r i t y System f o r Michigan, D r a f t Copy (Kalamazoo, Michigan: The W.E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research, June 15, 1977), Appendix. 2 ® B laustein, November 1977. APPENDICES APPENDIX A SIMPLIFIED MODEL DIAGRAM 143 144 Appendix A S i m p l i f i e d Model Diagram NON LABOR FORCE A _ y _________ LABOR FORCE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE EMPLOYABLE WELFARE FORCE) APPENDIX B MODEL DIAGRAM 145 Ulfltf ulivtgt A ttviui etuum Iff A lt> V fil DfLAV f»*wr APPENDIX C MODEL SYMBOLS AND THE EQUIVALENT MATHEMATICAL OPERATION 147 148 Appendix C Model symbols and t h e e q u i v a l e n t mathematical o p e r a t i o n 1) Summation B 2) M u l t i p l i c a t i o n 1» 1 c c 3) I n t e g r a t i o n c B : B Tfl: T A stock or level v a r ia b le : in itial value ofstock v a r ia b le in itial v a lu e o f time : current tire : flow o r ra te variable B = Bo ' f A dt 149 4) Delay ( d i s t r i b u t e d ) DELAY A: input, r a t e v a r i a b l e B: o u t p u t r a t e v a r i a b l e DEL: mean time o f d ela y T: c u r r e n t time B B = f APPENDIX D MODEL PARAMETERS 150 151 APPENDIX D . Model Parameters, *1 = .6551 - 3.03 x USUR n2 = .0125 *3.4 = .001227 + .03095 x SUR tt3D = .0001093 + .00201 x SUR w3C * .0026-18 + .002064 x SUR ti4 = .97 7r5A = 0 . 0 7;5D = 0 . 0 7i5C = 0 . 0 tt6 = .03 Tr7 “ .3294 - .CD x USUR irS » .01 ti9 = .276 - 1.565 x USUR ttIOA = .001407 + .00723 x SUR ttIOS = .003799 + .012173 x SUR Til OC =.01660 + .09936 x SUR ttI I * .13454 - .3636 xSUR itl2A =.006 tt!2B = .0 2 2 7i l 2 C = .16895 - .79527 x SUR Til 3 = .20 it14 ” -.0001685 + .02666 x SUR tt! 5 = .0481 - .26 x USUR 152 ir17A = .000002118 + .00013363 x SUR n17D = .000008418 + .0003493 x SUR irl 70 = -.00003116 + .0001166 x SUR r!8A = .006805 + .07333 x SUR irl GI3 = .006973 + 11242 x SUR ir18C = .06587 - .04520 x SUR irl 9A = 0 . 0 ir19D = 0 . 0 irlSC = 0 . 0 tt20A = .002295 + .02444 x SUR ir20B = .003485 + .05621 x SUR ir20C = .03293 - .02260 x SUR k21A = .002295 + .02444 x SUR *21B = .02439 + .3935 x SUR ir21C = .06587 - .04520 x SUR 1T22A = . 9 2 5 “ SU R(T-2) TT 22B = 1 - TT 22A TT23A = .3 5 TT23B = .6 5 F23C = .1 6 JT2kA = .1*0 TT2kB = .6 0 TT2kC = .13 USUR = U .S * unemploymenttrate SUR = Michigan unemployment rate (5 month smoothing) 153 Parameter C o n s t r a i n t s irl + 7r2 + :r3A + it3B + it3C <_ 1 ir4 + tr5A + rGB + u5C + u 6 <_ 1 irll + ul2A + nl2B + ul2C + irl3 ^ 1 7722A + IT 22B = 1 TT23A + TT23B = 1 7T2kA + TT2kB = 1 Delay Parameters Program Regular (A) Mean Tima (Months) Order 1.1*7 3 Regular (B) 2.8 3 Extended 2 .3 4 FSB 3 .8 6 APPENDIX E FORTRAN PROGRAM LISTING 154 155 1=WHI T £ , l 1 0 0 , T 5 Q , C M 1 5 0 K C , P N 4 5 1 1 9 6 4 , P G 3 . J C 5 Q 0 . 2=cTN. 3=HAl,LG:> = A X I T , G P I O . «*= L C 4 n , L ' 0 . 5= NC C. n. 6 = e EWTN'C,LG0. 7=CaT4L0<*.,Lr,0,9-TM«5MM0Ce L ,P P = 9 9 9 ,C N = W 9 W ,M D = P E ” . P=*cOe 9= p o o * ! P f i M T f - 1 0 0 L:L ( I N P U T , O U T P U T , T A P E l , T A P F 2 = 0 U 7 P U T f T A P E 5 , T A ® F 6 l 1C* C O M H C N / P L T l3 4 ' f l / , ’ »'-'c P G a t P . : f , a « . P E X T , -‘ XTR , B F S 2 , F S B R . P . U I , B 5 G L V 11= 1 P E P * X s , " X T L 7 R ,£ X T E X P ,F S 9 L V = ,F S = E X R .U IL V P ,U IE X R ,R " G , E X T , F S 8 , U T , 12= J X N L e p . U l c x f i - ^ U l L V R s ^ P r i L F . E ^ U I . W O P - P . P R W O g . P N - T t F P P A . O f t S l s , . F i t 1 5 * 6 ) , 3 0 * f Nr ( 1 * 6 ) , ; 9 £ N E ( 1 5 6 > , Q ; ( 2 4 ) , Q U D ( 2 4 ) I f r P r , e s » JO G P A « (i5 6 > f IPRO G(12) ,P U (7 ),N A H P (1 5 I l N T £ r . r . i PG-IOPP.OATAOUT PEAL I ' i * ( 1 * 6 ) 0 0 1C 1 = 1 , 1 5 * 1C t : « K D s FLOAT ( I ) 71= °E A 0(1 ,2 !* 1) (°N{<) , K = 1 , 7 ) 32=241 F03 M AT(7ai3) 3 3 = C N h o m I S t u p M M = P R OF MONTHS THAT C O N T A I N UP OAT E C OATA 74=11 C£A0(1,*>NMON 3 5 = C P U I T S THE NUMBER CF P E O P L E E N T E R I N G THE U I S Y S T E H 3F = 8 F O P MA T ( I “ ) 77= C£ A " M 1 , 2 : ) ( R U I K J t f J= 1 ,N M 0 N ) 38* MN = N M0 N * i 3 9 = C NAME I S t h : NAME OF T H E F C * C A S T USEO ( O P T O M E S T I C OR P E S E M E S T I C ) 40= 41*1*25 42= 43=20 44=c 45=t TS AN A P 3 4 V WI T H A V A L U ! F C P EACH MONTH, I S 1 . b u l y T HE S EG PROGRAM I S ON, I F A 2 P?G«>EXT PROGRAM* a ^ E ON ANC I F r HE VALUE I S 3 * THE R E G * £ X T * F S B ° R 0 G P A '*S A ’ E O N , F E A Q ( i , l 2 C ) ( P = CGP,AM(i<) , K = l , 1 5 6 ) 5 2= 12 0 I F THE VALUE FO *- 4 7 ( 4 3 ( 1 1 , 1X) ) 5 3 = C F S P C O N T A I N S t h ; MCNTH NUMBER THAT F S B I S S E T TO A 1 3 NEEK PROGRAM 54= R P A Q d , h)FSBOF* 5 5 = C I GFOW I S THE MAXIMUM THAT TUfi H I L L BE ALLOHEO TO GPOH 56* PE A "(i,fl)ir,PO W 57* GROWMAX= I GROW/ 1 0 0 , 0 58*. ' EGPOWs-j, 8BT7 59* RUIC. COM* 1 . 0 6 G * C OATA OUT 1 3 S E T TO 1 I F THE TABULAR OUTPUT I S TO BE S U P P R E S S E D . 61* P. E AO( 1 , 6 ) O A T A O l T V 156 62= • CO 1 0 5 K - 1 » 1 5 6 6 .?* »f)£N-(<) * J ,0 6 «*= C » 3 EHE ANO £ B E N E 4 3 * ARRAYS C O N T A I N I N G B E N E F I T 6 5 * C ° E f . A NO E * ' PROG ) AMS , 6 6 = 1 C5 r 7 r u £ («)=<),.1 6 7 = C OOL ssT M- OOLLAP I N C R E A S E P £ f i MONTH. 6 6 = C P E P C = P E 5 0 2 riT I N C R T A«5£ P E R MONTH, 69= 9O L = 0.3 70= PE, D r = l . C 71= ©EA^ II,ft)N A W 9 72= GO T r < 5 0 , 9 0 , 5 1 , 5 1 , 5 2 ^ * 5 73=50 A £i'-f 1,1 2 1 )P C L 7 <*s GO TO *C 75 = 51 F £ A 9 U t 12l)P=7C 76= GO 50 7** =52 R * 6 ■«< 1 , 1 2 21 < P 9 - N F < I > , 1 = 1 , 1 5 6 ) 75 = 122 FORMAT( 1 C F 6 , 2) 79= e r a - M l , i 2 2 ) (E B E N E (I)•1 = 1 ,1 5 6 ) 80 = 121 FOJ** a t c f i J . 5 | 81=60 ? £ i n ( 1 , 2 1 ) ,J= H M ,156) r 0 = < A T < 6 F 1 3 , 5) =£40(1, 2 1 M Q E C ) ,1= 1, 2 4 ) 9 2 = * £ 4 3 ( 1 , 2 3 ) ( O U R ( I ) QUARTERLY L E V E L S FOR THE E AND UR OATA , 1 = 1 , 2 4 ) 93=C ASSUHprxoNS 94= CALL T I T L E ( R N ) 95= PRINT 750 96 = 350 F O e M A T ( * THE F O L L O W I NG 4 BE THE O P E P A T O R MAPE A S S U M P T I O N S ON WH* 97= * * I C H THE MODEL I S O P E R A T I N G , * ) 9*= P R I N T 3 5 5 , NHON 99=355 F 0 6 -‘ A T ( * - t h = L A S T MONTH WI TH UP OAT E O OATA 1 S * I 5 , 1 H . ) 100= P R I N T 3 6 3 » N A W E i , NAMF2 131=360 F O = “ A T ( * - * 2 A l J * F O F C A S T S ARE U S E D * / / * THE F OLL OWI NG I S A L I S T 0 * 102= T * F THF (JIIAP.TLY F 0 9 C A S T 3 U S E O * / ) 103= IC=0 i?<* = DO 7 6 1 K = 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 A 2 105= 00 361 J*l,<* 1 0 == 15=10*1 1C7= P s INT 3 6 5 . K , J , Q £ ( I C ) , O U R ( I C ) , I C 10 8 = 3 6 1 C O N T I NU E 109=365 F 0 3 . MA T ( I 5 , 1 H , , I 1 » * EMPLOYME NT - * F 8 . 0 * U N E N P L OYN F NT * 1 1 3 = ♦ » 111= 112= 113=386 114s 1 1 6 = I F ( I A U T O . H E , 1 ) GO T O 3 6 7 PRINT 3 6 6 F O » - A T ( / » THE E X T I N O E O 9 F N E P I T PROGRAM I S ♦ * 9 r t h = I N S U R E D UNEMPLOYMENT P A T E . * ) GO TO 3 7 9 1 1 * * 3 6 7 117=368 116= 119= • 12C* 121= 122= o a r r * * F ^ . i . * P » I N T q t p . N O , * 1 3 ) TRIGGERED* 3 6 9 FO RM A TI//7X ,*JA N ♦* AUG SIP OCT 00 359 J = 1 ,13 DO 3 7 J < = 1 , 1 2 IYP.*1969«-J M 0=C(J-1)*12)*K FEB NOV MAR APR DEC*) HAY JUN UUL* 157 123* 12*.* 125 = 126*370 12’ = 12"*371 129=3*9 130=375 131=377 13 2* 133* 1 3 >*= 13e =378 13* = 13’ = 13 *=3’ 9 13« = 14. .: = 141= 142= 1 43 = 144=382 145= I4f= 14’ = 14*= 14== 1=!* 151=361 152* 1 =’ = 1=4= 155*35(1 1=* = I ' M R R ^ ' A M H O ) . E C , I I IPP.OG ( K) = 3 H C EG I F < P = P G P A H ( i n ) , £ 0 . 2 » IFROG(K)*3H=XT I F

I Y O , < I P P C G ( I » , 1 * 1 , 12» P 0 3 MAT I T F , 1 2 < 2 V , 4 3 > ) CONTINUE P 3 I NT 3 ’ ’ , F 5 R C F F F 0 3 M f i T < * J F 0 9 H I L L 9 E CHANGED TO A 1 3 WEEK PROGRAM S T A R T I N G * WITH MONTH m j M B t ° . ' * I 4 , l H . ) G 'n w a iG P n w /ij : , PP. I NT 3 ’ 8 , f , « 0 W F O P M A T < * Q C 0 V ~ F " D EMPLOYMENT W I LL GROW TO A MAXIMUM OF » » F 5 , 2 * OF TOTAL “ M P L O Y M E N T . »» P R I N T 3 7 9 » 0 C L , DE C C p n = Mf l T ( * i 3 T H F F OLL OWI NG I NF O R M A T I ON ? F F E P S TO T HE AVERAGE* tiF7KLv O I N I P I T A M C U N T S * / / ’ X , » h Cl LA9 I N C r E A E E * P E P M 0 N T M = - = 3 . 2 / , 7 X * ° - P C E N T A G E I N C R E A S E OF * s N E F I T S * 4 * FACTOR* *P3,FJ I c < NA HR, M = . 5 ) GO TO 3 9 3 P P I N T 3 32 FP PMAT < / / / - • T H£ F O LL OWI NG 1 3 A P R O F I L E OF THE USE® S U P » L I E O * ♦ * AVEe AGF WEEKLY B E N E F I T S 9Y PROGRAM* > S ’ ART*PRENE(1> N! I H* =1 OP 3 A : < * 1 , 1 R 6 I F ( = R - N E t < ) . E O . S T f i P T ) G O TO 3«0 P - I P T 3 8 1 , NUMF,K,START F O = wA’ ( ’ X , * F P C M MCN’ H * I 4 * TO MON’ H * I 4 » RFGULAR B E N E F I T * ♦ - L FV 'L **Fft,2> STACTsPRENttK ) N'JH = = K CONTINUE S TA®- = t OENEI* I H F = 1 lf»= 30 ? * F K = i , l B6 1 5°= I F ( = 9 F N E ( < ) , E 0 . S T A P T > GO TO 335 160* PRINT 3 8 3 ,N U M F ,K ,S T A P T 151=353 FORMAT(’ X,*F®CM MCNTW*I4* TO M O N T H * I 4 152* *■* F X ' T M 3 = -1 R P N E F I T L ? V E L * * F 6 . 2 ) 153= STAPT*EBt:N-(K) * NUMF=K 164=385 CONTINII5 I f 5 *390 CONTINUE Id** T= J » 3 I f 7* TH ?=T *2,1 1 € 5 = C P E C O SMOOTHES MI CH I GA N ANO . S . UN E MP , R A T E S * 169*S i J P = T A « L I CSU3 1 , T I m E 1 , ’ , 1 5 6 > 1 7C = U 5U R *TA 9LI(U SU Pl,T’ M E l,T t i56» 171* UF=TAn L I ( U R l , T l M £ l , T , 1 5 6 ) 172* R"I*TABLI (R U I1,T I«E 1 ,T , 156) 1 7 3 * C S E T T T - c I NC R E ME NT * 174* 0T*C*2 175= IO ’ =l 1 7 5 *C S F T M” AN DELAY T I M E S * 17’ * O iL l= O E L P *l,3 17** 0 “L 2 *2.8 179* 0£L 3*2.3 ie0* • 0 cL 4 = i,9 161* 0EL5*1*9 1 6 2 * C S E T ORDER OF O S L A Y S . 163* Kl=4 158 ie<* = 1?*! = i a^ = ie’ = 19*=C 1HO- 199=C 191 = 192 = 191s 199s <2 =3 <9=L <^ =6 <5=6 S F T I ‘I I T I A L PARAMETER V A L U E S . CAL L C U o n u T S F T I N I T I A L RAP.AM5TEO V A L U E S . P22A = . 9 25-T A 9L IC SU P.1,TIM E1»T M 2.156> 1 5 CPEPA.O T, : . 9 ) P 2 2 A * C . 9 922 3 = 1 .0 -0 2 2 4 D? 3 i * : . J 5 1 9 9 s P233s:.65 199* P 2 3 C = C . 16 P2*»t=C • *1 P 2 * 9 = P . 61 P 2 “ f*=C .13 I N I T I A L VALU'S 0 5 STATE X N L P ’ * 1 7 5 0 J C . - 2 6 7 5 0 C*UR E = ’ 35-*C9% J X L c‘* 3 * ; a 9 1 C 0 . Q 19’ * 19" = 19° = 2C9=C 2C 1 * 232 = 2C3* 2C* = 225 = 2C6 = 2C7 = 2i»= 2ies 219 = 211 = 212* SEr VARIABLES. 4003=13000.3 A0CU*a C 3 0 .0 0A=1Q?C t . 0 3 “ r,=e,79U0.0 EX’ = ? . C FS?£=0. 3 FSa 9 = L .3 F59=FSeA*F599 1=1 2 1 ’ =C COMPUTE I N I T I A L OOST v a r i a b l e s . 219* CAL L C O S T ( I , P E G * E X ’ , F S B , P E G C O S T , E X T C O S T . F S B C 0 S T . U T C 0 S T . R 8 l N S . E B E N E 219s ♦ . P E 3 C . 0 0 L ,=N,NAWB) 2 1 6 =C I N I T I A L I Z E 1 ‘J TSP NAL A*flA VS F O P F S B D F L A V S , On u 1 7 = 1 , KM 21'= * FSatH I2 > * 0 .) 215 = DPR I Z = i , < 5 213 = 229=5 FS 9 3 1 < ! Z > = u . J 2 2 1 = C I N I T I A L I Z E I NT E R N A L ARRAYS FOR EXT D E L A Y . 00 3 IZ * 1,<3 222* 3 E Y T H I 7 ) = 2. J 229* 2 2 <**C r O M P U T * I N I T I A L I N T E F N A L ARRAY VALUE FOR REGA D E L A Y . 225* P 'C .il(H =R E G /(O E L l»D E L 2-R 22A *C E L 2) 2 2 6 = C COMPUT E I N I T I A L I NTERNAL ARRAY VALUE FOR REGB D E L A Y . 227= P E G P 1 ( 1 ) * P ' i; a 1 < 1 > - P 2 2 A - R E G A U 1 1 22*=C I N I T I A L I Z E I N T E R N A L a r r a y s f o r e f f i n n n . A Y , do 2 r z = 2 ,< ? 229* 2 ??r ? PE G 31< IZ I= R 'G P 1< 1) 2 3 1=C I N T T I A L I 7 E I N T E R NA L ARRAYS FOR REGA D E L A Y . 0 0 1 IZ *2 , <1 232* 1 P .E G A K IZ IsP E G A ldt 23’ * 2 3 * = C COMPUTE I N T I A L L EV E L V A R I A B L E S . UI =b£G*SXT«-fs 9 235* P S s AOCP. m AOCU v GA 23*= 23’ = U== F c o a i H ) R-' * G A = P U I R r r,L / r = P 2 2 4 « o e r , a f i 9 e EC-9 = n 2 2 9 “ 95 Gf l R o - r , c y : = p, ff ( j q 9 u : l v r =rfp. L '/ r U I ’ * = = P EGEXR a I * T= 0 . 0 rsE tT sr,o "X T H /P sl. 1 f x t =x f = > . o r»P59=C.O £ -5 54 = 0 .0 r ? 4 U s = 1.9 F ? 4 c y r a j . t\ 259 = 261 = 2 6 i = C I N I T T i L I Z r R f t TP V A R I A B L E S . 262 = CALL VAOCALC 26-»=C P F T N T I N I T I A L I Z E OUTP UT O A T A . 2 64 = CALL PAT A o p 2 6 C =C I NC R E ME N T TTM= 9Y MONTH, 26t = 0 0 51C < = 1 , 1 5 6 2*7 = I =K 26<*=C G » P H = T M T P A T - OF GROWTH CF COV’ ^ E O EMPL OYME NT . I T H I L L I N C R E A S E FROM 2 6 9 = C 1 I N m o n Tm 6 7 t o A .1AVI*« u h OF S ’ OWMAX, I F < K, r , T , \ 7 >':r,= OH = " F C r f + ; G F O W H A A ' - , 3 5 7 7 1 / i C , S 270 = 271 = I F < P G R O W. GT , r , c O HHa x ) E G R OH= G- ? OWMAX 272 = C -ivrM PafK K ^cr.FO W I F < K . L t . 6 7 j . - , 0 TO 1 4 5 27t = 274 = r ' I T G = 0 w= p i j i G5 C H * ( t l , J - G f OH m j x ) / G . 8 5 7 T ) / i o . O 27= = I F C= U : G R O W . G T , r , F O W M a x / . 8 5 7 7 ) R U I G R C W = G » 0 W M A X / . 9 5 7 7 R l ' T K O = R I > I 1 ( < ) * p i i : g = cw 276 = 277=195 I l l s m = ( S ‘ r , * 2 X T I /OOVEMP 276 = Avt GI l i F = A V G I U 5 1 = A t f r , I U R 2 = C U M I U R = C U N I U R l = C I J H I I J R 2 = 0 . 0 274 = I F C A U T O . N F . I I G O TO 3 C 0 I F ( K . L T . 9 F I G O TO 3CG 269 = 2 6 1 = C T H I S F I C T I O N 1 5 TO ALLOW THE I N S U R F O UNEMPLOYMENT RATE TO TURN T h £ EXT 2 « 2 = C a e O G R A M ON AND O F F . 267 = « = K-Z 264 = DO 2 3 ' i * < K , < 2 6 C=C C U M I U ? = C . U I L A T I V r I N S U R E D UNEMPLOYMENT RATE F O R THE L A S T 3 t t ONTHS I N 2 3 6 =C T H r 0 U 4 O F N T Y - A P , 2 8 T =C C U < I t l » l a C I H M I A T H / F I M S L P F O UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR THE LAST 3 MONTHS g f l 6 =(; OF 1 Y r 4RS FOTOP TO C U 9 F £ N T YEA®. 2 8 9 = C CU“ I t P . 7 = r t l « U L A T I \ » r I N S U R E D UNEMPLOYMENT RAT E FOR T H E L A S T 3 IIONTHS OF 2 ? 0 = C 2 Y£A = S P R I O R t o C U P . R F u r Y f A R . 2 9 i * C T H F A U S I U = = t h e AYEF AGE C F THE C U M I U R S . C ' l - < I U c = C U 4 X l | P * r i i F «M» 2 ° 2 = C U '*ru-l= C U tIU F l + IU P (M -l2 ) 29 5= 294 = CUHIUF2=CUMlU R2«-IUO )/2 296 = A7GIUP2=AYGIUP1 PROGPAM C<» =1 299= 3 0 9 = C I DECAY I S S t T TO F O F C F THE PFOGPAM T o S T A Y ON FOR A MINIMUM n F 3 3 f l l = C MONT HS, I F ( I O E C A Y , G T . C ) GO TO 2 2 0 302= 303= I F ( A V f ' I N R . G T . , C 4 . AND, A t f G I U R . G E , » A V O I U R l * 1 . 2 > . AND. A V G I U R . Gi l . 304= ♦ ( A Y G I U R e * l . 2 ) . ANO.PRCGRAM(Kl, N E .2 I I O F C A Y = 4 305* I F ( P R 0 G R A M < K ) . M E . 2 . A N 0 . A V G I U P . G 6 . C . 3 5 > IOECAY»4 160 306=220 in£CAv=in=CAY-i i p (^Or'CAy , g t , c i p f o g p a y t o = 2 I F CP=n r . 5AM = 2 CPMTIf'U* 319=303 311-C 312= 3 l 3 = C (JPDATP Ting, 31*. = T=T»Of 3 1 6 = C COMPUTE ST AT £ VAB I A R L C S . Z=r »OT«E^T 3l* = 31 == X L F s XLF »OT* < L P ‘Ic T 313 = A ? C P = A0 C s ♦'0T-*Ar' P U P T AOCU=AOCU * 0 T « A ^ U N ” T 315= GA=GA*nT*GAN"T 320 = 3 2 1 = C CO**PUTT F E 8 R S T A = ' V A P T A Q L E . 32?= F S n = = FSR3*":iT“ ( R F S n 3 - F S B s > 3 > * = C C m f c < c CR 1 3 w * ; * P S = P P C G R A H . 32** = I F ( I . P . P . P S i n P F ) G O TO 1. 53 3 2 F = C CC'*P 'Jr P FOba ST AT ? V A RI AB L E. 325= FS R A = r S R A » O T * J P F S R “ FSRAR) 3 2 7 =C DFLAY =SRA «A T" V A R I A B L E S . 32»= CALL O P L R T t s p ^ T . F S O A F . F S B A l . O E L A . I O T . O T . K A ) 320=uqg CONTINUE 3 3 9 = C OF LAY = ? ■ » ' 9 AT E '/A"’ I A = L F S . 331= CALL C ' F L i r ( R F R 3 d . r S R K , F S t 3 R l , U £ L 5 , I 0 T , f J t , K S > 3 1 2 = C C O H P I J T - EXT S T A T E V A R I A B L E , 333= E X T =E Xt O T * ( P E vT - = X T P > 33«*=C OELAY " X T F A T E V A R I A B L E S , 33* = CALL •■>FLDT< A " X T t E X T R , P X T l , O E L 3 , I O T f O T , K 3 ) 3 3 * = C COMPUTE PEG S T A T " V A R I A B L E . 3 3 y= RPG=PPG*nT-(RPrGA-PEGLV®-REGB9) 3 3 * = C DELAY F E G F A T " V A R I A B L E S . 339= C A L L EEL OT f R R E G B , R E G R * , R E G B l , O E L Z , I O T « O T , K 2 ) 3*.! = CALL V p £ L ( O R P G A . F E G A P . R E G A l . O I L l . O E L P . O T . K l l 3**1=C COMPUTE TOTAL F S B . 3*? = FS9*FSRA*F339 3 « . ? = C I F F S ‘1 I S A 1 3 ME=K PROGRAM, F S B I S R E P R E S E N T E D BY F S B B OELAY BL OC K. 3*.*.= IP »I.G E .F S ?0F F *F S R = F S 3B 3 « * = C C O MPU T r TOTAL MI 3<.s= U l = e E G * E XT « - F S P 3*» 7 =C C O M P U T r TOTAL P A , 3 *.«s p A = AOC P * A O C U * G 4 3*>9=C C O M P U - E UNEMPLOYMENT L E V E L . 3*9 * u = vlf- p 3 5 1 = C COMPUT E w o e L E V E L * 35?=' WOR=l)-UI-PA 3 5 T = C I N T EP. DO L A " E R U I , S - O O T H E C M I C H I G A N UNEMPLOYMENT R A T E , ANO U . S . 3S«»=C UNE-MPLOY 1 - UT RATE PROM TARLF.O V A L U E S . 35*= R U Is TAPLI ( P ,U I l,T iM r l t T , i 5 6 ) 355= SU = = T A P L I ( SU d 1 , T I M E 1 , T , 1 5 6 1 35T= U" I J P = T A E L H U S U R l » T T M = l , T , 1 5 6 1 3 5 == UR=TA*LT(UP 1 , TIME1 , T , 1 5 6 ) 355= TM 2 = T * 2 , 3 3 6 9 = 0 U P DAT E P A = A M = T " = V A L U E S . 361= CAL L OMPCUT 362= P2?A = .9 2 P -T A R L H S M R 1 ,T IM P 1 ,T M 2 ,1 5 6 ) 363= I F 1 P 2 2 A .G T .3 .b > P22A = 0.9 36*»= O E L 1=(U V A L O G < PU IM »1G I,».« 365* P229=1.3-P22A 3 6 M C COMPUTE P A T E E N T E R I N G REGA DELAY B L O C K . 161 36’ = P = - G 4 = =M'I 3 6 * = C CO“ B U T T PROGRAM L F A V I N G P A T E * 369 = rSG LV P=°22A-3FG 49 3 7 ' a C C O ^ o i l T - PA T E C U T T I N G RE GP OELAY B L C CK. 371= R * F 0 9 = P 2 2 R MP E G t P 3 ’ ’ =C C O - P I J T - P *GULA” PROGRAM E X H A U S T I O N ° A TE , 37’= o ' g ^ X P s p . E GP P 3 7 * . =C C C MP U T = P ' C M T - ’ P l N r , p f t T E FCP. E X T ' N G F C P R OGR AM. 37? = £ E ~ X T = P 2 1C , r XT = 3 7 R = C COMPUTE P A T = - N T E F I M G E XT ENDED PROGPAM. 377= e > r y T = = F G R t + E ’ FXT 3 7 * = C COMPUTE FXTFNC- ’ l PROGRAM H A V I N G S A T E , 373 = p v t LVp = P 2 ’ A »p x t o 3 « n = C COMPUTE F X T E N 0 “ T PROGRAM E X H A U S T I O N R A T E . 331= EXT = y P = B 2 3 ' ' * " >7°. 3 3 2 =C CCMP t i T E ? ? c >i t = RI NG RAT E FOR F S B PROGRAM. ?*■» = I-PGRsPPi* 2 & 4 = C COMpi"iT E P I T E i N T - : p I M 5 p-S B PROGRAM, 38 e= R P G ? = “ 2 3 3 * E X ,' e * E P P S 9 3 8 6 = C C O - P J T E P A T E E N T E R I N G F S B " DELAY BL OCK, 36’ = RFG»9=F59AR 3 8 3 =C T P T I ‘»p P O UAL S TMP P L ' I O D WH£N F S B TUCNS TO A 1 3 WEr K PROGRAM, T h EN 389=C T H r RATE * N T E « I N G THE F S B ° DELAY BLOCK U S E D TC R E P R E S E N T THE L3 WEEK 3 Br-=C BFDGRAM EOI I ALS T h = o u t ? c u t b t n g f SR PL US THE LEVEL OP THE = S 1 A O r LAY 3 9 1 = C BLOCK I ALL R E C I P I E N T S I N THE F3 D P=OGRAM HAVE A MAXIMUM Oc 1 ! WEEKS 392= C AF’ r i Th f TRANSITION Pe P I O G ) , 393= I P ( I . r O , F S 3 1 P F » S . P S 9 !3 = c P S B * P S a A 39A=C A F T F R THE T R A N S I T I O N P E ° I O O THE F A T E F N T E P I N G THE P S B B DELAY 39P=C BLOCK - D U A L S THE o f i T c E N T E R I N G e S 3 ( THE F S B A DELAY BLOCK I S 3 Y P A S S E O ) 396= IFd.G T .P SB O FFrR P S-IB sPFS B 3 9 ’ =C C O “ B U t p THE F 3 1 PROGRAM L EA V I N G R A T E . 39®= FE B L V SsP2 aA*FSBR 3 9 P = C COMPUTE THE F S B PP DG= 4 M E X H A U S T I ON P A T E . AC 5 = F f ' 3 E X P . = P 2 A 1 * F = BP A f l l = C C O M P i r P THE TOTAL U I L E A V I N G S A T E . AO 2 = UILVR=FEGLVR+FXTLVR+FS3LVR AQ 3 = C I F ONLY THP REGULAR PROGRAM I S O P E B A T I N G S e T T HE ° A T E E N T E P I N j T H F AOa =C E X T f N O f o ANO F 5 ° FROGPAMS TO 7 " » 0 AND COMPUT E THE TOTAL U I E X H A U S T I O N AC?=C RA T E , 4C*= I r ( PPOG R A M I K ) , N ” , 1 ) GO TO 9 1 AC7= RPSP=’ PX T=3.0 AC * = U I FX°. =P E GE XR* EXTEXP f F S B E X P ACP = C I F T H F P E G U I A P ANC E X T E N D E D PROGRAMS ARE O P E R A T I N G S E ’ THE P A T E A 1 " = C E N T E R I N G THE F S B PROGPAM TO ZERO ANO COMPUTE THE TOTAL U I E X H A U S T I O N A ll= C PATE. A 12=90 I F t o R C G r A M ( K ) , N £ , 2 ) GO TO 91 A l’a pfsp= : . i AIA= UIFXPsIXTCXR+FSBEXP A l e =C I F ALL PROGPAMS Af i r O P E R A T I N G COMPUTF. THE TOTAL U I E X H A U S T I O N R A T E . 416=91 I F ( = o C G R A M ( K ) . N c . 3 ) G C TO 9 2 A17= U I PXP. =FG 8 P < R 419=92 CONTINUE 4 1 9 = C COMPUTE A L G E B R A I C RATE V A R I A B L E S . 425= CALL VAP3ALC 4 2 1 = B0 0 C O N T I N U E 4 2 2 = C COMPUTE U I COS T V A R I A B L E S . 423= C A L L CO S T ( I , P P G , E X T , F S 9 . R E G C 0 S T , F X T C O S T , F S B C O S T , U I C O S T , R B r N E , E 9 E N E 424= t,P~RC,D CL«RN ,*A W B> 4 2 * = C P R I N T MONTHLY OUTPUT OATA, 426* CALL DA TAPP 427= 510 CONTINUE 162 4 2 “ =C 429= 4*r= PF IN T fic s a v OF"INSURED CALL TI T L E » P M ) <.11=601 <.12= 431 = 434 = 435= 436 = 437= *».J9 = f 1 0 «.3a=6*0 44C = <*<*1= p ^ imt UNEMPLOYMENT P A T E S . eu F r - ^ A M / Z i Y . ' T N S l J C E D UNFMPLOYH=NT R A T E “ / / 7 X , 3 H J A N , 2 X , ♦ l M = - ' , : l , 2 y , 3 HYa = , 2 y , i H A O < ? , 2 X , 1 H M A Y , 2 X , 3 H J U N , 2 X , 3H JUL . 2 X , 3HAL G , «- 2 Y, I H 8 E P , 2 Y , 1 H C C T , 2 X , ? H N G V , 2 X , 3 H 0 E C I 00 6*3 L = 1 9 H . 1 0 4 2 MP = 1 « - ( ( L - 1 9 2 0 1 * 1 2 ) NL=MF*lt Wf I T r ( 2 t 6 l 0 ) L , < I U ° < L L ) » LL=MF» ML) F O SMAT ( I F , 1 2 ( F 5 , 3 ) I CONTINUE CALL ° A T A P I T E»in 442 = 443 = S H Q c O t i T I N c Oe LE T ( P I N ? , 9 H I T P t C D0 U T c » 0 C L » 1 0 T , C T , K > 4 4 4 = C T H I S I S A FOFOYN S U B R O U T I N E FOR S I M U L A T I N G D I S T ' I R U T F O T I M“ O ' L A Y S . 4 . 6 = C FO°. A n c - S C R I P T T O N S ‘! e F O P C Y N , AN I N C U S T P I A L OYNAMI CS S I MIJLATOP PAGE 44ft=C 6 TO <- * D T J <♦51= po u t p = 0.3 <♦52= 00 2 J = l , I0T 453 = R I N s h I N R / F l CATtIO T # 454= 00 1 1 = 1 , x 45c= APOsC^OL'TRII) 4=« = C: 0UT5 ( I ) = A “CM kIN*AEC) /O fL I 4 5 T- 1 p 1*1=A^C <♦5 9=2 p.OII t d - r o U T P ♦ C R O U T P I K) A5P= R-TU^N <♦60= E*iO <♦61= SUBROUTINE v n F L < V I N ,V C U T ,« > ,O E L ,O F L P ,'O T ,K ) <• 62 = OI-'RNSION P ( l ) 463= FK=FL0AY(K) 46<*= A=OT*RK/OEL <♦65= DEL?=/IOT*FK) 466= O r L P = n EL 467= on l T=l,K 46“= n= =p(i) 4 6 9 = P ( I) =nF«.A*IVIN-OR“ l l , - O F L O ) ) 47?= VIN=0*> 471=1 VOUTaPlK) 472= RRT UP N 471= ENO 474= F U N C T I O N T A 3 L K V A L , A 9 G , PUM*1 Y , < ) 4 7 e =C T H I S I S A FOPOYN TAPLE L C C K - U P F U N C T I O N FOR I N T F P P O L A " ! N G V A L l E S I N A 4 7 6 = C T A B L E 1? S E R I E S OF NUMBPP. S9 FO P A D E S C R I P T I O N S E E F O » D Y N - AN I f O U S T P l A L 4 7 7 = C DY NAMI C S S I M U L A T O R , P A G * 4 - 2 2 9Y ROBERT H . L L E WE L L Y N , P R O F E i S O P OF 4 7 9 = C I N P U S T P I A L E N G I N E E R I N G , NOP.TH C A R O L I NA S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y , PRIVATELY 4 7 9 = C P R I N T E D BY t Y P I N G S E P V I C E , R A L E I G H , NORTH C A R O L I N A , 1 9 6 5 . 49.?= D I M E N S I O N VAL «<» , A P G « ) 481= DlMsAUAXl ,ARG<1) » 462= 00 1 1= 2,< 481= I F ( C U M . G T , A P G C I ) ) GO TO 1 4 “ 4= T A « L I = < C U M - A R G C I - 1 ) ) * ) / < A R G ( I ) - A R G < 1 - 1 ) » 495= *VA l < I - 1 ) 486* RETU°N 467*1 CONTINUE 486* RETUPN 163 uea= e>n 491 = <•91= 492- S I ' T C O U T I N F fl iJPCUT COM mO ' ,/ ° L t 9 AT A / T t =?‘r c G f l , " . p <»4, t P F X T , F < T P t CF S G » F S 3 R » ° U I . P E G L V P . l o r r . = x o , < * X T L 7 ° , • * y T r v o t F 3 9 U V !» » F * P f X r , u : i . 7 P , " I E X P , o. Pr . , = X T , F ^ ' t , U I , <•99= 2'fiUFP,UI?X3' t llH.v/5,'t:=:iLF,-9UI,W09PF,r°W0F,€NET,EcPA,»flP.S*XNLFPE. 4 94 = 49 = = 4 96 = 4 «7 = 49* = <• 99 = = 00= 501= 502= 5 0 T=C 5 0<* =C 5C5=C 5 3* =C 5 3 T= 5C* = 5C« = 510= 511= 512= 513= 514= 51* = 51* = 5lT= 519= 519= 520= 7 H I L ° N L • *1 T T 3 HL • P A P ^ L F » y L e NE T , WOP* NL » “ • XL F , U , WPR, =A , X N L ° A D R , X N L P 4 Dll* 4 V N L F P G A , E P A i ' lC B , E c AOCL, , £ P O A , M O F A r - , N O P A 9 U t w 0 3 c G A , y N L F R U I t W< B R U I , 5 P A 9 U I , A9 9 R 4 . L, A O C 9 c E , A C 9 P t ) t , A 0 9 P W 0 , A 0 R N £ T , U L o A 0 R , U X R A D P , A 0 t 9 , P A n i i C M L , A O C l H “ , A-THRU! , A D l ) P h 3 , A 0 U M E T , i ) t P A O U * U X P A T J » A D C U . G A R C L F . 7 G t * = , G A 9 t i I f G A S W O P , G a N " : T , U I L 7 G A t U I X P G A f GAt r P t £ X T , r P F S B . O T C 0 “ » ' 0 * l / P ' : e / U S U ~ r SiJo , U 9 , P l . c 2 » P 3 1 , P 3 9 , P l C , P < . , P 5 A t P = B . 9 P e G , o ' :i , P 7 , P 1 , P a , F i : A , P 1 0 9 , P 1 0 C » P 1 1 , P I 2 A , P 1 2 9 , l=> 12C ,P l3tP l< *»P15»0 l 7 A , P l 7 G f P 1 7 C ,P H A ,P 1 8 B * P l'» C . 2 P 1 9 A , p i 9 0 , P 1 9 C i P 2 ‘}A, P 2 : 9 , P 2 J C . P 2 1 A , P 2 1 3 , P 2 1 C THF F O L L OWI NG V A R I A B L E S < P RE C = O EO BY A P ) AP E T H C P A = A 8 E T E R S ( F THE MCPEL. THFY A = p n J L T I P L I T O RV C E R T A I N RATE OP L E V E L V A R I A B L E S I N T HE MODEL TO P » r p u C " OTHER RAT E V A O I A 3 L E S . P1=C.T P2 = .'J1 2 5 P7A = , 0 0 1 2 2 7 4 - . C T C IFG -S U P P ? 9 = . . 0 3 1 0 9 1 4 - , J ‘3 2 C 1 - » S U R P 3 C = . : 0 2 6 9 4 4., t « j 2 0 6 < 4 * S U R Pi* = . 9 ‘* 9*A =3.0 P5'< = 0 . 0 P5G =0.0 P*=.L3 P 7 = , 4 ° 7 5 “ T . 1 2 5 *Hc P6=.01 P 9 = , 2 - p - i , G XNLFP. I S T H E RAT E E N T E R I N G T H E LABOR F O P C E . 521= P10n=.01T7 99*,Ti2i73*sUR 164 5 5 9=C 551 = 55 2=0 C M : 559=C 55e= 55F=C 557 = 55"=C 559= 569=C 5 6 1 =C 562 = FfT-C 569s 5 6 c =C 56* = 5 6 T =C 56* = F69=C 571=C 57?=C 573 = 579=C 57R= 57*=C 577s 57*=C 5 7 0 s 58^=0 5 ei= 582=C 583= 589=C 5 8 C =C 5flP= 5 8 7 =C 56HS 5Aa=C pofl5 0 1 =C 592= 59?=C 599* 5 9 e =C 596=C 597= C OMPUT - P D P T I O N CF XNLFR GO I NG TO E MPLOYMENT. Xr ! L Fp F s B i - * X N L F F COMPUTE P O P T I O N OF XNLFR G OI NG TO u t . x h ' L F B ' . i I s P 2 *XNLFR C O H P U - E p t c t t o n o f XNLF R GOI NG TO A 0 0 - p . if m . c a d b = p t a « y * i l f p COMPUT E P O S T I C N OF XNLFR G O I NG TO ADC - U . X U L 5 A-iU = “ T n * X N L F P COMP UT F P O R T I O N OF XNLFR G O I NG TO GENERAL A S S I S T A N C E , x r L F R G A = : » 3 C * YN L F 3 U I L V R I S t h e «ATE L E A V I N G UNEMPLOYMENT I N S U R A N C E . COMPI JTF P O P T I O N OF U I L V P G OI NG TO e m p l o y m e n t . U ILV =-=Pu»ulL V P COMP UT P P O P T I O N OF U I L V P G OI NG TO A P C - R . ULPAO==*5A*UILVP CCmp 1J t p POF 1 I O N OF U I L V R G OI NG TO A O C - U . 1 1L D A 0 1 1= p F b * t i l L VP. C O M P U T - P O P T I C N CF U I L V R GOI NG TO GENERAL A S S I S T A N C E u i l f g a = ° 5 i' * i : : l v p COMPUTS- PORT I CM OF U I L V R G O I NG TO NON LABOR FO®CE« UILPNL=P6 -UILVP WO® I P T m= L E V E L o f TH c WI THOUT B E N F e T T S C AT E G O R Y . COMPUT E PA T E F = CM WOO TO E MFLCYMENT. WO? c E ' = P 7 , WOa C O M P U T " R A T c FRCM W08 TO UN c NFLCYM£NT I N S U R A N C E . WO-TPtJ:s C4-*m C O MP U T " o & r ~ F 3 CM W08 TO NON LABOR F Op C E . W C P = N L = 0 ,i * w n 9 C C MP t l T " PATC FRCW WOB TO A n c - P . wi?B A n * ' e F i < ) a - s o r COMPUTE RATE F 3 CM W09 TO A O C - U . w oPA nu=pioT*woq CO M P U T p P . 3 T f FPCM WOB TO GENERAL A S S I S T A N C E . WO"FGA=PlflC*WO" t JI F X P . I S T k f P A T " E X H A U S T I N G UNEMPLOYMENT I N S U R A N C E . C O M P U T “ PORT I CU OF U I E X P G O I NG TO E MP L OYME NT . U IE X PEsPll-U IEX P COMRIITC P O R T I O N o f U I E X R G O I N G TO A O C - R . UXPAOPsPlZA^UIEXP T C M P U T T P O R T I O N OF I I I ^ Y R G O I NG TO A O C - U . U X P A 0 U = P 1 2 0 -*IJIFXP COMPUTE F o p t t o n q c U I E T P G O I NG TO GENERAL A S S I S T A N C E . U IX P r,A sO i2 C*w:EXP COMPUTE P O P T I O N OF U t ^ X * G O I N G TO NON LABOR F O R C E . U IvFflL=PlT»U TETP E I S TM= LEVEL OF EMPL OYME NT . COMPUTE PA T E FPCM £ TO WI THOUT 9 E N E F I T 9 C A T E G O R Y . £PW0B=P19*f 5 9 3 = C COMPUTE " A T E F=CM F 559= If'ILF=P15-»£ 6 flC=C C O M P U - I P A T S FPCM £ EC 1= 6 3 2=C EC t = 60<*=C 605= 6 C 6 =C 60T=C 6 C8 = 609*C 610=C E P A C C ' = B1TA TO NCN LABOR FOFCE. TO A C C - P . 4C C O “ P N T - P A T S F=OM E T O A C C - U , E P AC’C , / = ° l T P * c COMPUTE R A T S FPCM £ T O G £ N £ F A L A S S I S T A N C E . £e GA=PlTC*E AOC» I S T « E LEVEL OF THE A T g t o OE P E N O E N T C H I L O ° E N - F E G U L A P C A T £ G O c Y OF WSLFAFE COMPUTE RATE FPOM AOCR TO NON LABOR F O ° C E . A 0 R p N L * P l 1A*Ar)CP. ADCU I S THE LEV E L OF THE A I O TC O E P E N C E N T C H I L D R E N - U N E M P L O Y E D F A T H E R S CATEGORY CF W E L F A P E . 165 6 ll= C 61’* 6 1 ’ =C 6 l«*=C 61e = 6 l*=C 61’ * 61*=C 619= 62*=C 621* 6 ? ’ =C 6 2 3= 6 ’ A=C 62?= 62*=C 62’* 6 2 *=C 62°= 6 ?C=C 611= 632=C 63’ = 63A=C 6 3 B=C 636=C 6 .1 ’ * 6 ?*=C 63 0 * fu^sC 64 I s 6**2=C 6<»3* 6<*4=C €<. F=C €4P=C 6 4 ’ = 6 **A=C 6 UP* 65 C* 651=C 652* 65■* =C 654= 65*= 6 F fe=C 657=65 6 * 659=C 6*0= 661= 66 2 * 6 6 ’ * 6 f 4 « 665= 6 6 6 *C 6 6 ’ *C 66 • = 669* 67"*C 67i=C c o l o u r - R AT - * ’ 0 * a n c u TO n o n l a b o r f o r c e , A r U P N L = P l S ,»*.,' OCU GA I S T h ;' LE VL * o p ’ HE GENERAL A S S I S T A N C E CATEGORY OF WELFARE* C C MP U T “ P A T ’ FPC*« GA TO NCN L A 3 0 R F O R C E . G i ’ ^L P sR llC 'G A C O Ma i J T f P A T ! F=OH A n C P TO UNEMPLOYMENT I N S ' J R A f ' C E . Ar, = P U : = P l S A * J O C P COMPUTE ° S T ! PROM AOCU TC UNEMPLOYMENT I N S U R A N C E . A"UPUT=R19P«A0CU CO**PUTr R A T - F^ CM GA TO UNEMPLOYMENT I N S U R A N C E . GA ° U I = P 1 PC'*'>A OOMRIJTP RATE FROM AOCR TC WI THOUT B E N E F I T S C AT E GORY. A P E R W 0 = o 2 ' ?A* AQOR C O M» U T r RATE F° CM AOOU TC WI THOUT B E N E F I T S CATEGORY, ArU=wn*P2RR*AOCU COMPUTE P A T E FROM GA TO WI THOUT B E N E F I T S C A T E G O R Y , G A » w n * * O 2 i!C.* 0 A COMPUTE RATE FPCM AOCc TO EMPLOYMENT, AP Cc P * * 3 21A-ACCP. COM PUT •’ RATE FR CM AOCU TC E MPLCYMFNT, AMO* J p p * P 2 I P ^ A C C H COMOi.JTu RAT * FPCM GA TO EMPLOYMENT, SA*->E=p 2 l C * G A RA I S THP L E V E L OF P U B L I C A S S I S T A N C E ( T H E T OT AL EMPLOYABLE WELFARE CA’ E GO ’ Y». COMPUTE R A T ! r r O M PA 1 0 EMPLOYMENT. PS RP= APCRPP *APCURh*GARP CCMPUT r RAT * FPOM PA TO UN’ MPLOYMr NT I N S U P A N C T . P S P U I * AMR- U I . A r U F . i J l T G A P . i l I CCMR' JTE RATE FPCM PA ’ 0 NC*I LABOR F O R C E . O A F N L F S A O C P N L . A P U CNL t g a r n l f C C MO UT - PAT*’ F R O - F TC P U ° L I C A S S I S T A N C E . E p p A* E P A O C P t f c A O C U . f b g A COMPUTE RATE e p r i H E TO U I ( S I N C E TH= F A T E E N T E R I N G T HE UNEMPLOYMENT I N S U R A N C E S Y S T E M , R i l l , I S AN EXOGENOUS V A R I A B L E . E R U I I S CALCULATED AS A F F S n U A L ) . E F U I * 3U ] - w m P U I - P A ® U I - X U L F P U I C O M P U t * THE N ’ T o a t e A F F ’ C T I N G e m p l o y m e n t , E N ’ T = ® t R E . X N L F R - . U I E X F ” . U I L V P s *WOBPH EN*-T*FNFT-:ROA-£c N L F-:R U l-i=W C B COMPUTE THE NET ’ A = £ A F F e r T I N G ’ HE LABOR F O P C * . XL FN -T*X N L F’ - W O n F N L - £ P N L F - U I L s NL-UlXRNL-PAP.NLF C OMP UT * THE NET RATE A F F E C T I N G A O C - c . A O R N F - s X N L P A O P t E P A O C R t WOFACR t UXEAOR. 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OGPi M MONTH NUMBER ( 1 - 1 5 6 1 A R * C ONVERTED TO YEARLY MONTH NUMBERS ( A L L JANUARYS ARE MONTH NUMBER l , F E B . ARE ALL 2 . E C T . ) . 166 672= 677= 6 7L=l(J 67C= 676s 67’ = 678=C 679= 6*9 = 641= 662= 69? = ?I*= 669= 6 6 6 = 6 687= 68« = 6 69= 690= 6 91= ftojsc 6 51 = 69<* = €9F = 696=0 6QT= $ q » - 699= 'n*ITn=I I F ( M 4 ^ 3 . r o , 5 » G n TO 1 2 I F ( MONTu «GT , 1 2 ) MOt»TH = M O N T H - l 2 I F ( H O ‘i T M , G T , 1 2 ) GO TC 1 3 DH' 4l = ' ' , I H 2 = r3 U M 3 = D U M u = r ; ( j * 5 - o t H 5 - g UH 7 * O U M 6 « O l J M 9 = O U M l G * D U M l l * [ UM1 2 = 0 . 0 L C ‘, U ' « l = L C P U M ? = L O O U M ? = L C 0 U M A = 0 . 0 THE M'7*l’,u s A » E 5 5 7 TO OUNMY V A L U E S . I F < m q *iT m . F p . 1 1 n i l M i = i IF'7=l I F (MOMTU,= o,j.J l IF d n H T H .F O .F t-'.IM C -j I F ( M O H T H . i : o . M r,U M * = l I F (* O N T M , FQ,7»PU'1-’=1 IF J^O N T H .F T .^innnasl I F ( KO N T H . 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H V T A P ,1 0 X ,3 H p P G » H X f ?H 'X T ,1 1 X ,3 H F S 0 ,1 3 X ,5 H T O T A L ) DO 7 5 M= 1 , 1 7 IV= = H » . i q 6 9 P = IHT 3 2 , I YR , c C O S T ( M ) , E r O S T I M ) , F C O S T I W I j T C O S T I M ) F O c HAT I l H , 1 4 , 2 X , 4 | 4 X , F 1 3 . 2 ) > CONTINUE CALL ’ I ’ L E I R N ) pnir/T 36 FO ,MA T | * ANNUAL C O S T BY PROGRAM I N THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS < I T H GROW *Th c ACTOR*// * 5 H V E J P , 1-1X , 3 H P £ G , 1 1 X , 3 H E X T , H X , 3 H F S 8 , 1 0 X , 5 HT OT AL ) DD = 9 MM= 1 , 1 3 jycsioA a^nN P R I N T 3 2 , I V o , P C O S T G ( M M ) ,E C O S T G ( M M I , F C O S T G ( M M ) ,T C OS T G CMH) C O N - t m u c C D ‘IT TNUF R E T I J P n END SUBROUTINE T I T L E ION) INTFG=P P N ( 7 ) W o i T = ( 2 , i , j t ( ON ( K > , K = 1 , 7 ) F O P M A T C I M A N P C W O P S I M U L A T I O N MODEL VERSION 1 . 1 JU N E .1B 77*/ ♦* 0 - V " L 0 R ; O ? v M I C H I G A N S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y U N O E * A CONTRA I T W I T H * / * * THE BUREAU O F * *MPLOYM=NT AND T P A I N I N G , M I C H I G A N DEPARTMENT OF L A B O R * , ♦ / 1 H t l3 3 llH -)/2 S X ,7 A lC /l RETURN END S U B R O U T I N E MOCPLT 168 7 9 9 = C O M ^ O M / P L T D I T A / T 7 9 5 = 7 9 * I N T r f . P R = T h p 7 9 S = C P A T A M 0 1 b L TM 1 r . t f | ? = A T r O * H F C 9 U F F 7 9 ° = 0 * 0 0 = n i N = H S I 0 N ' F U S I O N 8 3 1 DAY/s O A T f l JUT/0/ 6 1 3 = D A T A S L H / O / T H F T A O U L A F E N ” = Y e o F * i * C Y = 0 0 1 , C B U F ( 1 5 7 , 8 2 ) I S S T Q R E C I N T H E R B U F ( 1 2 1 ) O U T P U T = i f i x 1 I S S T O R E D I N T H E A A R R A Y ( t m 1 = 1 , o t / 2 , ) . l ) G 8 1 2 = P R I N T 8 1 ? = A l a s ( C O T O * 9 9 ) C A L L T I t L ‘" l i ) 3 0 , I T , A ( l ) , A ( 2 ) , A P R I N T 1 1 5 1 , A t ? ) , A ( 1 J > , P R I N T 1 0 U 8 1 5 = P 9 1 N T 1 0 3 3 , A ( 7 ) , 8 1 5 = P ^ I N T 1 0 3 9 , A ( 2 8 1 ’ P R I N T 1 0 0 5 , S ( 2 F I , A = ? ? , ; f f t ( u » ) , A ( 6 ) , A P = I N T 1 0 0 8 , A I 3 C ) , A 8 1 9 = p o 1 3 3 7 , A i n t ( 3 5 ) , A 82C= P P I N T 1 0 8 2 1 = P = I N T 1 3 3 ? , A ( « . 5 ) 8 2 2 = P » I N T 1 0 1 0 8 2 3 = P R I N T 1 - J i l , 4 ( 5 5 ) , A 3 5 , A U C ) > , 4 ( c M) ( 8 > , A ( 9 ) , A ( 1 6 ) ( 1 2 ) A ( 1 H , A ( 1 T » , A ( 1 3 ) , A ( 1 6 ) A ( 1 9 ) , A ( 1 ? ) , A ( 1 9 I 8 1 8 = ( 2 l ) , A ( 2 3 ) , A ( 2 9 > A ( 2 8 ) , A ( 2 9 ) ( 3 1 ) , A A ( 3 2 ) , ( 3 5 ) , A , , A ( 9 l ) , 4 ( 9 6 , A ( e •; ) , ( 2 2 ) , A ( 2 6 ) , A ( 2 ? ) , ( 3 7 ) , A 4 ( 5 1 ) , A ( 9 ? > ) , A ( a ’ , ) ( 3 3 ) , A ( 3 9 ) ( 3 8 ) , A ( 3 9 ) A ( 9 3 ) , A ( 9 9 ) , 4 ( 9 8 ) , A ( 9 9 ) A ( 1 2 ) , A ( 5 ? ) ( f 6 ) , f i ( 5 7 ) , A , A ( 5 9 ) ( 5 9 ) , 4 ( 5 9 ) 8 2 9 = P = I N T 1 0 1 2 , a ( 6 C 1 , A t 8 1 ) , A ( 6 2 > , A ( 6 3 ) , A ( 6 9 ) 8 2 B = P ^ I N T 1 0 1 3 , A ( 6 C ) 8 2 8 = P R I N T 1 0 1 9 , A , A ( 6 6 ) ( 7 J ) , P R I N T 1 ) 1 5 , A ( 7 5 > , 8 2 » = P O I N T 1 0 1 5 , A ( 7 9 ) , A I C C ? 8 3 0 = A 1 0 C 1 1 G C 2 1 0 0 ? 1 3 C ? 1 0 0 6 8 9 7 s ( 1 1 X , I J , , f 2 X , 5 A ( * 2 > ( P R B GA , 6 X , F i o , c H P F G t X P , 5 X , F 1 ) , G , 9 X , 9 H = F S P , t x , F 1 i) , J , 9 X , 9 H F S 9 R ( 1 i V , 7 h ^ i j i , 5 X , p 1 C . 0 , 2 9 X , F H U I L V F n = M j - ' | l , l , 9 X , 5 H P = G A R , 6 X , 3 H P « C , 9 ) , Y , F 1 0 . , F 1 0 . 0 , 9 X , 0 ) 9 X , 6 H E X T L 0 R , 5 X , , 7 X ; , B 1 3 . , P i : . 3 , 9 X , 6 H F S 9 L V B , 5 X , 3 ) = , 6 X , F 1 0 . . 0 , 9 X , 5 H U I E X b , 8 X , ) , 6 H U I L \ i R F » 5 X , v , g w w n P R = , 6 X , F 1 3 . 3 , A X , 5 H 7 B : H O B , 6 X , F 1 1 , 0 , 8 X , 8 H E N E T , 7 X , : , 0 , 9 X , « H = R P A , 7 X , F i 1 0 C * , 9 X , F O P H A T A F l ; , ) , 9 X , 9 H P A R F , 7 X , F 1 0 , 6 H P A P N L F , 5 X , F 1 0 , C , 9 X , 5 H X L F N i ? T , ( H X , 6 H W (J) L P o - , « X , F 1 0 , ) , - X , 5 H i ) I R h L , 6 X , F l i ) , O 8 P N L , 5 X , F l 0 , ) t 9 Y l H { - = X 1 0 C ® 3 , 9 X , 8 H U I X B N L , 5 X , , F i ; , 3 ) , l C X , F i r . 0 , 9 X , 3 H X L F , 8 X , ) , 0 , 9 X , l H t l , 1 0 X , F 1 3 , 0 , 9 X , 3 H H O B , 8 X , F i : . 0 > F O R M A ' ’ ( 1 1 X , 2 M P A , 5 X , F 1 C . 0 , 9 X , 7 m X N L F A 9 = , 9 X , F 1 0 A F l J « 0 , 9 X , 7 H X N L e' P G A , 9 X , F i 0 , C , 9 X , 6 H ? . P A D C P , 5 X , F O = M A 7 ( l l X , . 0 , 9 X F l % . T H X N L ® AC U , 9 X , 0 ) S H C P A O C ' N S X . F l C . O ^ X ^ H E a r . A ^ X ^ l O . i J t A X t e H H O R A C R ^ X , A F i 0 . C , 9 X , 6 H H 0 9 A P U , 5 X , F 1 3 , C , 9 X , 6 H M 0 3 = : e A , 5 X , F l C . e > 8 9 9 * 1 0 1 ? 8 F ? = . 8 5 1 = 1 0 1 1 8 5 2 = 8 5 9 * , 9 X A ( 8 1 ) , ( l l X , 9 H t “t X T , 7 X , F l 0 , 0 , 9 X , 9 H . - X T R , 7 X , F l 0 , F O 3 H A ’, l l l X , 6 H T M 1 0 CT = 8 5 3 = A ( 7 7 ) , A ( T 8 ) ( 8 3 ) , , 9 X , 2 H I ) I , ' 4 X , F 1 j A F 1 3 . 0 8 9 6 = 8 9 6 ( 5 9 ) F C S M A T ( i i x , 5 H X . N L F p , 6 X , F 1 0 , 3 , 9 X , 6 H U I “ X R E , 5 X , F x j # ) , 9 X A F i = 8 9 5 = , A A F l C . 0 , 9 v , F H E « N L F , f t V , F i : . 0 , A Y , 4 H = e u i , 7 X , F l C . ? ) 8 9 2 = 8 * 9 e n = 9 A T 1 C 0 9 8 9 < ) = - 8 9 5 = F O R M A T A F l 8 3 9 = 8 9 1 = A ( 6 8 ) A F i C . i ) , 9 X , 5 K F 3 r : ' X P , 5 X , F 1 3 . : , , X , 3 H F S ,J , 8 X 8 3 6 = 8 3 9 = F n - ' H A ” A ( 7 * > , ( ! • ■ ? , 5 I - T I M - 6 H O P r . L V 9 , 5 Y , F i 0 ( A ’’ ) , A F l 3 , 0 , 9 Y , 5 H " X T P X F , e Y , F 1 0 . C , 9 X , 3 H F X T , 8 X , F l C . 3 ) 8 3 9 = 8 3 7 = F O = “ A ’r , A A ( T 1 ) , A ( T 2 > , A ( 7 3 ) , A ( 7 9 ) 8 2 7 = 8 3 5 = M O N T H . I T = T T - 1 ” / ? ) - * ) 3 3 * E A C H » * i I F ( D A T A O U T , n 8 P R I N T E O ! 2 I P f l T . E O . 3 2 = A N O P A T A O R 8 1 0 = 8 3 1 = C O M P A R I S O N , Y P A ( I 5 9 ) , Y P B ( l 5 9 ) ' , I P L 0 T ( 1 6 6 5 > « i l = 8 A N O R « U F ( I T , I ) = A ( I ) 8 C ° = 8 2 9 = A R R A Y C B I J P / 1 2 8 7 9 - 2 / 8 - : 5 = t . O A T A O U T , R N A O R A V . X P ( 1 5 ® > = 6 C 9 = C D A T A I P ( 2 , 1 S 7 ) , I P L 8 0 2 = = , 9 T P 3 ' 1 F ( 1 5 7 , 8 2 > 7 9 * = C 8 0 8 , 9 ( 9 2 ) 0 4 T A 0 U T F 0 P M A T ( l l X , 7 H X N L F R U l , 9 X , F l J , C , 9 X , 6 H W 0 a P l l I , 5 X , F i a « C , H P A R U I . f t X , F O = M A T ( H X , 8 H A O P n l ) I , 5 X , F l G . 0 , 9 X , 6 H A O 9 P M O , 5 X , F i a , 0 , 9 X , 6 H A 3 F N P T , 5 X , A F 1 3 . C , 9 1 0 1 2 9 X » 5 A F 1 ? . J , « X , 6 H A 0 o = N L , 5 X , F 1 ? , 0 , ^ X , 6 H A C C R P E , 5 X , F 1 2 , 0 ) ) , 6 H > J L F A p e , 5 X , F l C . 3 , 9 X , 6 H U X P A O P , 5 X , F 1 C . O ) F O P H A ' r ( l l X , ^ H A ' ' ) C n , 7 X , F 1 3 , 0 , 9 X , 6 H A r U R N t , 5 X , F l G « g , 9 y , 6 H A O C U F E , 5 X , A F l O « 0 , 9 H , 8 H A O U R U X » 5 X , F 1 0 , 3 , 9 X , 6 H A D U P . 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E O . l ) GO T O 2 1 IY 9 = IF IX IC C B U F tI,IC )/0Y )0 . 5 )* 1 AMO MEAN S T A T I ! T I C S . 172 1 2 ^ = 2 1 12 4.2= 1>S= uf= 104.7= 101.*= IJtO a 1 3 = C= 1CC1= l C e 2= 13*1= • 20 1 0 ? 4-= Iu5== 1C5*= I F ( q , = o . i . O P . A A . F O . O ) G O TO 2 0 AATsAA*? N= N H «:i'MflA9 = S' HAA- 3*- AA9 S U ‘1 i A= 3HM A 1 ♦ AA SliM3 = 3 n . g . q ? J M £ £ S 0 = 5IJMAA?0t-AA*»2 S U m">S 0 = ? U ^ 3 S Q « . q » « j CONTINUE : F | T C L G . = 0 . 1 ) r. 0 TO 26 = 5 0 = < ( N - 11JIA A O - ( CUMA£ *SUMS) > - * ’ ) / < { N - S U M A A S Q - t SUMAA— ♦- (N-IUM-)e O -< ? U M 9 -» 2 ) } > £ M ? A * I = S U M A A/ N 1'3C7= 3 M ’ 1CC?= p^OFTCRSO) 10*0=26 0 0 i C * ‘ = 1 0 * 1 = 1 0 9 1 C * 2 = I C ? 1 0 * 3 = 1 0 * i . = C to 20 3=c-7hf ( i, ic> 1C<41= I S 4*4.= 1C continue :°< i,r> = irA I * C I P L 9 . = 0 . 1 > GO I P I I t I >= I Y 3 £ A = t - 31 I F ( I , I C ) 1C 1Q= 10t *C = lCi.i= T ME iis : «. 2 ) ) A N s * l | ! . q / N I N ’ 1C 1 , N A M c , 5 , c S 0 , N , A M = 4 N , a M E A N I F ( IC » I O « 1 6 . O P . I C . , 1 0 , 3 7 ) P 9 I N T 1C9 F O O - i A T ( l H * , = X , - M U L T I P L Y Y - A X I S VALUE BY 1 3 FOR ACTUAL F I G U R E " ) r Oc MAT ( l M l , A 1 3 , i . 2 y , 2 H P = ( F 7 . 3 , » PS Q U A PE 0=*,F7.3,* N=», 3 , ** H T 5T ,M F A N -,F 7.0,* " COEL M E A N - . F 7 . i 3 ) TOO L A 1 L E S A F t P R I N T E D ON THE L I N E P e l N T F P. P L O T S . P 7 T f | T 3_ni, F 0 = MAT » 1 1 Y . 1 H X , * ( 2 0 H * * * f » * ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ ♦ + «■«■♦■«t «t*fX) . A H * * * * ) CO 5 1 1 = 1 , 7 * l C ? 9 = r THE S I C ’ OOAROER ANO DATA P O I N T S ARE P L O T E O ON THE L I N E P R I N ' E ® P L O T S . I D = 7 7 —I 10*9= n o 51 J = l , 1 2 l 1070= 1 PL f J I = 1 M 10T1= ; F C = ( 1 , J ) . M E , 1 ® ) GO TO 6 3 1 C 7 2= IPL ( I) = 1 H1 1 0 7 1= I F t l P L G . E O . l ) GO 7 0 5 1 1 £ 7 C = 6C I F ( i e < 2 , J ) , N F , I P ) GO TO 5 1 1 C 7 5 = 1 G7 * = IF < IP L (J).N E .1 H ) IPL(J)=1H * 1077s IF (IP L tJ).= C .1 H ) IPL ( J ) =1H2 CON’ 7NUS 1 C 7 V = 1 1 1 >= 3 . 0 Y P = ( l) = 1,0 IFLO=l 9" °;2 := 2 ,i?7 v 5 t c i =5 J o n : , i o r p i o a o - 'u p f i .i d if c y - p o . nt, : , o if l g =o COVTtfJ(.e CILL 5C&L" O ^ A , 1 1 . 0 , 1 * 7 , 1 ) T = ( I P L 1 . ? 0 . 1 » GC TO = 0 1 PA L L S C A L P ( Y P G , 1 1 , 0 , 1 9 7 , 1 ) ’ P ( V o £ ( 1 1 7 ) , L T , Y P 1 ( 1 = 7 ) » YPA ( l ° 7 ) = Y P O ( l = 7 ) t p i y d i ( 1 = 7 1 . r.T, Y P . K 1 5 7 ) ) Y ° 9 ( 1 5 7 ) = Y P 6 <157> CALL A V I S | . 3 . C , 0 . 1 , N A H £ f i J , l l , 0 , 9 3 . 0 » v P A f 9 8 » , V P A ( 1 5 ? ) ) CALL A 7 1 T ( C . J , C . J , I H , - 1 , 6 . J , C . C , 1 , 3 , 1 5 6 , 3 , 3 . C 7 , O . C , 3* 1 , 3* 1 9 7 0 ) : f g o t o s : a CALL L i s t ( X P ( 2 I , Y P S < 2 » , 1 5 6 , 1 , 3 , C ) CALL N=WP=N ( ? ) call G = n (3 .0 ,0 .0 ,2 6 .0 ,1 1 .3 ,2 * 0 ,1 .7 1 CALL N r. WP£M ( 2> CALL L t f * " ( X P ( 2 ) , Y P A < 2 ) , 1 5 6 , 1 , 0 , 0 ) CALL N>W®"H ( 1 ) CALL PL O 1 ( 2 * . 0 , 0 . 0 , - 3 ) GO TO 2 0 0 GO T 0 23-1 GO TO 2 J. 1 P °I *I T 1 3 1 =0°MAT ( 1 H 1 ) I ° ( I N T , = a . 3) GO TO 5 3 5 CALL P L O T ( . 1 . 0 , 0 . 0 , 9 9 9 ) CONTINUE ENO 174 1 = w * i t e , p n *.;; h 9 6 l , r : . 3 . 2 = F T N . 3 = C O P : E 2 , O U T P U T , 1 . L = C A T C L ? r ' » L r . i t , •- ~ T I S T > r c » f - 0 = f r T , : U = W R W , p p = 9 9 9 . 5 = * F D R 6 = o r . i . r - t , . M 7 = n i M E N l I O N ft= «■,P l C T 5 = C u E > £ r ( 2 T ) 1 1 = C T R A N S F O R M 1 2 = C W P I T T - . J A . f n i t ils ?> ;n- 1 9 = 9 0 0 R E - P S 99 :t ».n 13= * 1 ) 1 7 = ♦ * F - . 1 M " A' C ; u 2 L = W - . I T E ( 1 9•’ 2 , 2 9 = C Y E S I S ; ? ) D O 7 - E A n O Y ) U a i F O - P r . I I J T V O L F O r i - H R T ♦ * O P T I O N S . T Y P E depress N A M E . T H E H E L P T H £ U S E R T H E m o d e l T O D A T A I S T H E J A N . A Y T O A N S W E R Y E S A N D T O S Y the N A M E M A Y I D E N T I F Y T H E M O N T H , R N ( L ) N U M B E R S A C A L E N D A R C A L L I N G G U T O C A R R I A G E a ESCAPE R E T U P N * ' KEY.* ) C-I U P TO 7 J C H A R A C T E R S L O N S * O U T P U T * ) , F N ( 5 ) , R N ( 6 ) , R N < 7 > B Y Y E A R P R I n T E D E S U B R O U T I N E * ) Y O r . N . I I Y N S A Y F O R 1 0 J A N " F C D O U b 3 I T . - = i ? H 9 « . j F E B MAR A P R M A Y T H A T C O N T A I N S J J N J U L A U G S E P O C T * *) J - 1 , 1 3 5 R = 1 , ! 2 M ) < K ) = < < J - i ) * l 2 > * K 3 9 = 5 C O N T I N U E L C = P - M L 1 = 9 0 5 F O : L 2 = L C O N T I N U E L 3 = C N.MMS T - 0 5 , I S T H - rivos =.-i4* L 5 = P i . H I T - T Y H , FO- L A ‘ T ^ 3 0 * M - T < * M O N T H U P D A T E D D A T A S H I S T O R I C A L D A T A B E E N U P D A T E D :> A 5 T M O N T H N U M r ! E P . * I L , ♦— = * ) C A Lk. L 9 = I F C V N . E Q . l H f : ) 5 C = 1 2 P H I I 7 5 l = 9 L 0 Y O R N C Y H ) f - E - D 5 3 = I F ( M 5 L = P , . l l i T l l 5 6 = tf E C I S T U r . U N G H < 0 : . G T . 6 L 1 3 W H I C H M O N T H N U M - . E R H A S T H E O A T A . A N D . N H O S . L T . 1 5 6 ) G O T C 1 3 '-'LL. TC- I N V A L I D E N T R Y . T.RY A G A I N - ) 1 2 A N W R I T T E N 5 9 = 1 3 T O * , M M 0 5 F O - M A T C * G O G O 5 L ) F b ' M R T f * 5 2 = 7 = C N J M R E R N C O S H i L % = 5 8 = C MO r t A T C l 5 , l 2 ( 2 X , I 3 ) ) Ll= ic L 6 = 9 3 G A N , L = 1 , 7 ) W A N T O F - n o y 3 6 = 5 T H E Y O R N C Y P ) 3 5 = 55= 9 6 > M O . 3 2 = L 7 = A l L C - W S B Y B E F O L L O W E D , run T H E R E S U L T I F C Y N . E O . i H N ) 3 0 = , P . B E N E < 1 5 ,< ic C A c L 7 = O E S I R E O E N T R I E S , M U S T ( r . N ( L ) 3 1 = 3 L = A M D U S E A B l E , P ) - ! 2 ) * f. N ( 3 ) P P . " N T 3 3 A= 3 3 = 9 C « * ( 1 5 6 ) ) j 9 C F O - M - T t * \ A L L P U N ' ( 1 ) O P T I O N P . - i n I Y F O R M A T TO U S E D R E A S 7 = 9 1 0 r O F E ' T E R F L . - " A T ( 7 A 1 2 3 = C M T A F E 9 9 the S E L E C T I N G 7 U T A I E S I ? 2 2 = 2 6 = f E B S N i - C l 2 3 = 9 0 2 T H I S F c O M T'F.MI'IATE T he F O - ; i , T < * ♦ / * , M O ( 1 2 > i >- L L 1 9 = 2 1 = C2<*) N i “ / TO 2 C = 9 C 1 , U R -o: E R Its 2 6 T T A P r. 1 r , £ ( 2 * * ) D A T A F O ’ m a t * / / / / - 1 6 = 2 5 = C ( 1 5 f t ) , p / . ( 7 ) P' . f ' U- i t ' T M I 3 = < I ,I P U T , O U T P U T , T t P E i , T i P H 9 9 ) tf'-C i t N P.RAY R E A D < 9 5 , 9 5 T ) 6 0 * 9 5 0 F O M ' A T I f c F l . 6 1 * W P . I T F < 1 , I N W H I C H D « T A I S T A P F j . ( V E C < I ) , I * . « ) 9 L 6 ) N M O S 1 , N M O S ) S T O K E D S E F O R E I T I S S E E N U P O A T E D E * ) 175 F 0 : I' . T { 1 6 2 = 5 4 . 5 ) ’ 5 ) ('•IF. C O , 1 = 1 , N M O S ) 64.= r * : I . T '-62 65=96C F C - M m T I * 0 r YOU WANT TO US E D P T H I 3 T I C F O R E C A S T S ( E N T E R Y > DR F E S S 6 E= ♦ I ' f l C T I i * / - F O - E C a C 7 S < E M T E R N ) OF E.MPwOTHEN* ANO UNEMPLOYMENT R A T E S 6 7 = * ; - ) 66 = CAkL Y OP ‘I ( I Y U ) 6 3 = W j . . ; T = ( ; 6 = = , 1 5 I F d T N . E Q . l H r i ) P O 70 = T O 1 4 WMTF < 1 ,9 6 1 ) 7 1 = 9 6 1 F o • *i - T f* 72= bu Tr ii 7 3 = 1 (. ' 1 P " l ! l l S T I C * ) {1,962) 7 i»* 9 6 2 F O - M _ T < * P E C I U S T I C * ) 75 = 1 1 I F C Y N . E a . l H I l ) Gt 7 0 2D 7 6 = C I F C P7C r* I E~ I C " 0 P C A S T 3 A? E U S E D , EMPLOYMENT ANO UNEMPLOYMENT 7 7 = C AF E R C t O F u l ‘ HE F I , S T 6 C A P O S . T H E NEXT A C AROS C O N T A I N I N G 7 s = c p e s s i m i s t i c d a ’ a a f .c t h e n s k i p p e d , thing is used as a 7 \<=.C P L ACEHi L O E - ONLY. A C = F £ A D < 9 5 , 9 5 ' M o l = •-.£ - i O < 9 9 , 6 2 = F I - D 83=965 6 9 5 ( ‘■ - y , C I R C ) 9 < - 6 ) F L - . U T i n , 4.= & j 6 5 = 0 I F 66= 87 = 88= C S C - A P C D A T A 7 0 I S , / / / / / / / ) I s A S > e - U < F - 9 , r - 0 <«* - 4 , 3 9 = r ' K E A D ( 9 ' - , 9 5 9 l = C T H I S 9 2 = C E M P L O Y M E N T M A T * ) T H L C E D ! 9 6 = : c = c 9 9 = 0 0 2 9 E M P . A R E A N D S K I P P E D . U R . L A n O S . 24) 1 = 1 , U S E R 11= T O N T M A K E C H A N G E S I N Q U A R T E R L Y F O R C A S T S . W I 3 H A L I S T I N G O F E M P L O Y M E N T A N O U N E M P L O Y M E 4 T D A T A C H A N G E S S * ) 2 9 1 G 1 = I t = I C * l 1 0 2 = P F I i . T 1G CONTINUE T O 3 5 J = l , i . 9 7 5 , K , >1A F L' F♦ * G O K = 1 9 7 7 , 1 9 8 2 3 0 ” < 1 5 C T - = P F J . ' T = 8 0 0 FC P. ic*=- C A R D S Y O r N C Y N ) i : 0 = 6 A T H E N , 1 = 1 , 2 4 . ) 7 H “ Y O U C A L L 1 1 7 ) , P . ' S S I E L f I F l I Y N . E Q . l H I i ) 1 ” C U f T M P L . ) Y 9 7 = 1 2 5 = F I R S T O N L Y . 97 1 f * F i> R 1 L 4 . = 9 7 5 a r.x i N ( f J P ( I ) 9 6 = 3 = 2 9 U S E D , T H E O C F A t A L L O W S A*IO FA I I I ! 95= :1 - P S P L A C E H O L D E R 0 " *- *5 5 : ' C r l ! i » FO - A 9 rT>) 9 1 = 9 4 . S 9 7 C V A L U E ! U S E D *£ .-:> 9 3=25 , 1 = 1 , 2 4 . ) “ H l f . r - 2 5 P E C O I f ' I O T I C 2 C E ( I ) , 1 = 1 , 2 4 . ) ) J , C < I C ) , U R ( I C ) , I C • I F ’ . , f i O . = * , 1 1 , * E M P L O Y M E N T S * , F A . I , * U N E M P L O Y M E N T R A T i = * , F A . 4 1 3 ) 8 0 " 1 7 1 = GO T O 6 5 1 7 2 = 7 0 O U 7 5 I = M 1 7 3 = 7 5 V c C 1 7 0 = 1 7 5 = 9C GO " C 6 5 DO : 5 1 = 1 7 5 * 6 5 V F C ( I ) = 3 1 7 7 = G O T O 6 5 1 7 8 = 9 0 IC 95 1 = 1 , 1 1 1 7 5 = 5 5 V E C < I ) = 1 0 * 6 V E C C > = I S W H E N I = > P o G , C I 7 R O G ( l U H D E R , 5c l , ML 2 Ml , ML 1 = 1 2 , 2 6 = 2 162= OU 9 7 1= 26,51 1 6 3 = 9 7 VE.C < I ) = 1 O N E A w l M l , ) ) GO " / / * L I N E , ML G O T O 101 T O T O P R O G R A M I S T H E E N T E R I N G 1, S T A R T I N G F E D E R A L M O N T H E N T P . I E S GO B Y CP. S T A R T I N G E N T R Y < I P " .O P .EQ . 9 C.-'POG • E C , 1 B E N E F I T S E X T E N D E D W O U L D E A C H , T O M O N T H - / - 9,9,9, 1 6 9 = ' o n F . E G U l A R I N P U T ♦ * / / - I F U S E R t h e T U R N C M A t i G E ♦ E f I T f i . I N G F E A O s GO TO 9 0 A L L O W S < - ♦ E i i D I h C - 16*= p r o g r a m I A U T O .EQ. - / • * ♦ • / * t h e TO BE AUTOMAT I C T R I G G E R I N G S E T TO 2 I F THE U S E R I S 1 0 1 . F * i P M A T G U g e r P - O G R * . M S 1 6 7 = 6 5 * A N O 6 C S E C T I O N P " I 160=1015 161= 162= 167= 16<*= 165= 166= T H E Y P ^ O G R A M E I A U T O Z Z S E T ” 0 1 I F THEP.E I S OP T P " F X T E N O - P PP.OGJ.AM AND I S 1 5 7 = C 3 AT A Y C R N C Y . I ) I F d Y . S i5i=c i s Q U A R T E R L Y < E , U - , N M O S , I N T , l ) T O ■*✓* c a l l l f . 8 * d £ " P = i . . = 9 6 I N V A L I D E C I M A l 1 = 1 , 1 5 5 o 1 1*5= 1C 0 l-s,r r . I N ' E F v 1 6 1 A N u F O P / . A S ’ S . p . - ; [ it 1 6 2 = S : : . U E rir 5 i. i t O f C I N 3 0 1 1*7 = 5 0 = 5 * 1 • F e q ii * ! . = 1 5 ? 3 3 V*. l > . . E Q . C O I : \ 1 A 1 = U 5 . T S U P = . O l i T ; 1 9 2 = 1L9=C 15C=C T O 3 0 < : t G O 3 8 = 3 5 * 7 , ( r t o I F C 1 A G A I N * ) C O i . " l : . - U E = 1 9 O iiL P C- t 3 6 = 1 3 7 S i T R Y 3<* A " ♦ * 3<*=3A 1 3 5 " 0 P - : i : T 7 T R Y . 3 0 7 0 6 0 1, E N T R I E S A R E S U P P L E M E N T A R Y H U M M E R , 67, D E F A U L T E N D I N G 91, A R E * / / * S E P C O M P L E T E . * ) B Y 2 , Y O U U M B E R , N U M 3 E = . * / 7 * A P. A T E D \ B E N E F I T ' M O N T H O P O P T I O N . M O N T H E Y S A M * 6 ‘ ,1C1 C O M M A S . T Y P E 177 ltJ9 0 l 1 m 90 1 6 ° 1 01 19C 1 ° ! =1 0 2 ; 1 G2 = 193» C TnE 1 5 9 = 10 2 5 1 9 7 = 1 9 0 = 10 30 200 = I = 5 ? > DO 9 9 : = F.2 , VE0=7 C'.tiT IM ir 1 0 7 19* = 1 9 6 = *07 = '••d 1 5 6 v:c< i >=2 1 d? = 9 3 1 d6 J I ' T 99 I f . U F w f I T c < 1 , 1 :2 j > ( V t C ( l ) , 1 = 1 , 1 5 6 ) ( 9Cr 2. J) ♦ P r : . 4 T 1C 2^ U l t - s LAM : C 7 F S L 7 0 A 1 3 WEEK PROGRAM. Ft>f'A T(= 10 YOU Wa n t TO CHANGE F S 3 TO A 1 3 T H E H j T u r E * / * ( T H E DEFALT VALUE I S 0 > * 3 C i L w I V O R N F ( 1 Y r. C V , E 1 . WEEK PROGRAM ANYT I ME ’l) I N N ) G O T O 1 0 3 r-.lNT 103.' FC f ' A T I * - NTEr. THE MONTH NUMBER OF THE CHANGE TO 1 3 WEE< ') t .EAD *, N*Er! 2 C i = I CC 202 =1 0 3 9 W - I ' E < 1 , 1C 3 9 ) F i f 'AT ( 3 X - t ( 6 * ) 2C3= P.- I NT 1 0 3 5 2C9= C THE U S E 1 (.AH r ET T HE c ATE OF COV EP EO EMPLOYMENT. 2 0'- = 1 0 3 5 F O - . ' A T C * ' H E DEFAULT VALUE FOR COVERED UNEMPLOYMENT I N T H f . * / 2 •(.= ♦ * F'JTUF.E . S 9 5 P E R C E N T , ? 0 YOU WANT TO AL T E R T H I S VALUE : : * ) 2 0 7 = C - L L YOP.N ( ; V | 0 2 00 = I F ( r Y N . E U . l H D G u T O 1 3 5 P - I iiT 1 0 9 . 2 n = 1 0 9 0 F IA“ {■* r l i TEP. THE P E R CENT COVERED EMPLOYMENT AS A TWO D I G I T - / 211 = ♦ - V - L U E HE^HUUT A 0 E C I MAL . * ) A i* ~ , HC* 2 1 2 = 1C 3 9 213a I F (•:*:= . L E . 1 J ) • AMO *NCE *GE . 70 ) GO TO 1 C 2 2 1 9 = 1C 3 F - I H T 1 0 9 1 f |'?.c TRY A G A I N " ! 2 1 ? = 1C91 Ft'P. ‘A‘ ( 1 5 “ I S AN I N V A L I D E N T R Y . 216= 0 0 T U lC 3 '-« 2 1 7 = 102 CuNTI'.US 2 Id = w ■I " E < 1 1 9 ^ 5 ) NCE C.T' “0 110 219 = 220 = 105 NCE=95 221 = W r . I TE < l , 9 9 5 ) MCE 2 22= 110 CNN-INUF 227= P--IM7 10 9 5 2 2 9 = C C I S h K . T ’ F i l DIJ 1-A P t t I F THE T A B U L A - L I S T I N G I S TO BE 229= C S ' J P P R t S l F I . 1 I i W R I TT E N ON T A P E 1 I F THE L I S T I N G I S NOT 2 2 6 = C TO BE SL-Pr R E S >EO • 227 =1C9 5 FC-e > A - < - TO YC'U WISH TO S U P P R E S S THE TACULAR L I S T I N G * 22d = ♦ * OF T H F * / * MONTHLY V A L U E S FOR ALL VA RI A B L E S r *> 2 0 °= 220= C A L L y OF.II C Y N ) 23CI F C Y N . E Q . i H Y I G U TO 1 1 5 2 31 = *;■!-£( i f i:sc) 2 32= 1 0 SC FlR fA T < 9X ,-C -> 2 33= L-0 ~0 120 239= 115 w , I - E ( l , l ’. 5 5 ) 2 3 9 = 10 5 5 FCR"A" ( 9 X . - 1 - ) 2 3 6 = 120 CONTINUE 237 =121 P'.INT 1 0 6 ) 2 3 « C T H I S S E C T . ON t L L C W S t me USEF. TO S E T THE GROWTH OF AVERAGE 2 1 9 = C WEEKLY E F : . E F I 7 S 2 9 0 = 1C 6 0 F UR -tA" ( “ " H E R E ARE F I V E P C S S I 9 L E WAYS TO CONTROL T HE G R D W H O F * / 2 9 1 = ♦ - A V E - A G E WEEKLY - E N E F I T S . - / * T YP E 1 TO HDLO THE R A T E C ON S T ANT * 2 9 2 = ♦ - OVE- T I M E . - / * T YP E 2 TO ALLOW FOR A C E R T A I N DOLLAR I N C R E A S E * / 293= ♦P E R MuNTH WHI CH YOU WI L L THEN BE ASKED TO S P E C I F Y . * / 299= T Y P F 3 TO ALLOW FOR B E N E F I T LEVEL GROWTH BY A F I X E D * / IN 178 2 ‘♦5 A* 2<*7 ♦* P E R T N “ A G t PER MONTH WHICH YOU CAN A L S J 3 F E C I F Y . * / ♦* T Y P t A '0 A L L O W the H I S T O R I C A L per :ent I N C R E A S E * / ♦P E R MUHTH OF . Q 05** 1 TO OP E RA T E I N T O THE F U T U R E . * / 2U?; ♦ * T V P r 5 7C ALLuW FOR S T E P I N C R E A S E S OF AVERAGE WEEKLY* 2U9: */* DEN-'FIT L tV :L * ) 2 5C r E.O , MA'-T251 I F ( n A v p , L * . 1 . 0 R . N A W 9 . G T . 5 ) G 0 TO 1 2 5 25? GU 7 0 1 ? 0 253 = 125 P r I i<7 9 9 A 25<» GO ~ 0 1 2 1 2 5 5 C NAWb I S 7 ‘ t U . E f O P T I O N SEL E C T E O ( 1 - 5 ) • 255 1 3 b H ' I 7 t ( l , M < * 5 ) , IAWr F o i v * A: ( r ' l . 5 ) 25? = 1 0 6 5 25-> GO " 0 ( 1 3 6 , 1 9 5 , 1 5 5 , 1 6 5 , 1 6 6 J N A W B 25? 1 3 5 Wf I ” E i 1 , 1 : 6 6 ) 2 5 0 12 66 Fi''F.;'AT{-o:03C») 1.0 70 170 251 2 i?. 1«*5 P- I t ' T 1 9 7 2 63 1C 7C F C - ’AT C* Ft l TEF. THE OOuLAR I N C R E A S E PER MONTH WITH A J E C I X A L 2 6<* ♦ - F C P EX A *iPL E - - 0 0 . 1 5 *> 2 6 5 C DOL I S TH-_ OO l LAR I N C R E A S E P E R MONTH, 2 2 66 2 67 .*/ READ *,00- H rITE<1 , i:6 5 > 0 0 L r-0 7 0 1 7 0 26? 155 P ~ I N T 1C- 7 5 270 1 C 7 5 F ■ 7' t T ( — - p T - P t h e W c - . C t u T L i V c t . u = G - . O h T h - E k n u N f n * 1 7 H A * / 2 71 ♦X- FO- EX- M P L E . u 0 5 WOULO MEAN HALF OF ON; PEP. CENT PER M C N T H . * ) 272 >=: a d * , P t - C 2 7 3 C P E R C . 0 Tr E F - f C E M T A G E G R O W T H P E R M O N T H . 2 74 I F ( F E - C . L “ . 0 . 1 ) GO TO 1 5 6 275 P-1U 7 1 0 7 6 , PERC 2 76 = 1 0 7 6 FORMAT ( F f . 5 “ I S OUT OF B O U N D S . TRY A G A I N * ) 2 77 GO T l ' 1 6 5 273 = 156 C C tri'iU F 2 79 Ue : _ £ ( l , 1 - 6 5 ) P £ F C 2 32 GO * o 1 7 0 231 1 6 5 W rlT E tl, i : e o 2 3 2 C THE h I S T O - K' - A l GROWTH R A T E t i . 0 0 5 A 1 ) 1 3 WRI T T E N ON T A P E 1 . 253 ic a ; F O RMAT ( * 1.A 05A 1-) 2?t» Go TO 1 7 0 2 35 = 1 6 6 F - I " 7 1 J81 2 5 6 C T H I S S F . ' T ; c M - LLO WS THE U S F - TO B U I L D a P - . O F I L E OF P. EC. ANO 2 3 7 C E A MP L E “ / / * A A , 5 1 . A 2 * / / * THE DEFAULT VALUE I S A 3 . 6 2 . T YP E 291 ♦ 6 9 ? , ^ 9 9 ” 0 “ HD* ) 292 DC 1 6 7 K= 1 , 1 5 6 2 9 3 C ° ' E H f I S - H A 7 T.AY C O N T A I N I N G F E N E F I T L EV E L S FOR THE REG PP.OGRAM. FCE:.£ < < > = ! . * . 6 2 2 9<* 1 6 7 295 = 1 7 6 9 REAP • , *0 < , AMT 296 = I F <■“ O X . G T . 1 5 6 ) 0 0 TO 1 6 9 297 = OF 1 6 ■> K = " 0 X , 1 5 6 2 93 = 1 6 3 ?;EI:E(K)=-M T GO TO 1 7 6 ? 299= 3 00 = 1 6 9 Pr.INT 1 0 3 2 3C1 =1 0 3 ? F 0 r : - 6 T ( - “ NTEr . THE m o n t h , A COMMA, ANO THE DOLLAR AMOUNT FOR THE* 302= * * * E X T I M C E J V * P ) OGRAM. ENTER 9 9 9 , 9 9 9 TO E N D * ) 303 = DO 1770 K = l , 156 3 0<*= C E c E h E I S AN AKRnY C O N T A I N I N G B E N E F I T l E V E L S F O R THE EXT P F O G R A M . FbENE(K)= 5 6 . 7 1 305= 1 7 7 j 2 66 179 3 3 6 = 9 9 9 “. ' C-P ‘ AMT 307 = I F ( M O * . P T . 1 5 6 ) GU T O 1 7 7 5 3 30 = PM 1 7 7 1 K = I1 0 > 1 1 5 6 3Co=1771 F'F:.r.(K)=.'.MT i,i t C <4 ■*9 ■ 310 = P-I!|T 1A7T 311=1775 312=1673 F L S . I ! A * < * ? 0 Y O U WI S H A P R O F I L E C F R E G U L A R A N O EXTENOEO 3 E N - F I T * 313 = ♦ ‘ L £ V r L ? = v OR N = “ ) 319= call v o :i k ; v (i > 315 = if(;y > .,eq .ih n > g o to 17o 316 = : t- tiroene( i ) M IiIF = 1 317 = 31 B = 01- 1 7 1 K = l , l 5 6 310 = : F < r P f i “ (<).EQ.STAPT)C*0 TO 171 prl.-.T 1 « - JUj J U M F j K » S T A r T 320 = 321=1699 F.-I'IAK- - F U 1 M O N T H ‘ 19 * TO M O N T H * I 9 * R E G U L A R BENEFIT L E V £ . = * F 6 » 2 ) 322 = S T a , T = F . B E \ ' E < <) NUUr= K * 1 3 I 3= 329=171 c . ' U t : ; . u .“ 325= 5=166 326= ?r.:;.T 1 * 5 9 , H U F F , K , S T A R T 327 = S T A ' T = £ 5 F iE(l) f.Oi'Fal 32P = 320 = DP 172 K = 1 j 1 5 6 330 = * F ( f U - l i r ( w> . J Q . S T f i r T ) GO T O 1 7 2 331 = H - I t - T 1 6 ^ 6 , sl UMF , K , ST A r-.T F C 9 . ' A * ( - “ P MM MONTH* 1 9 “ 332=1697 TO M 0 N T H * I 9 , 3 37 = ♦ - ' > T - N , 1 E i i.=rflEFIT L FVEL = * F 6 . 2 ) 379 = Z ~ m t T = E P E ‘ E ( K) lJUMf = * 6 1 335 = 376=172 C O U T I .'.U E 337 = K=156 3 33 = PTIl.T 1 6 9 6 , K U M F , K , S T A r . T pr ; iit i n g 339= 390=139? F l " . . ' l " ( * ; p Y C U W I S H T O S C R A T C H T H I S P R O F I L E AND i S T AR T AGA : n =- ) 391 = d l l YOP.fi (IVfl) 392 = I F C Y U . E » 1 . 1 H V )GU TO 166 3 9 7 = C T P F A r. - Y J 0 0 " 7 A J M I U G B E N E F I T L E V E L S ARE WRI TT EN ON 1 TAPE!. 399 = W. ; t c ( i , i ‘6 9 ) I Fi E ' I E ( I ) , 1 = 1 , 1 5 6 ) 395= W - I T F ( 1 , 1 . 6 9 ) < F l F N £ ( I ) , I = 1 , 1 5 6) C t i i T i : ijf 396=170 F 1 r " AT ( 1 0 r 6 . 2 ) 397=1069 J 9 « = C OATA U? "C- I. UCL I S WR I T T E N FROM T A P E 9 9 TO T A P E 1 . 3 9 « = C O - T A F K mM M O i r n I MP S * ! TO 1 5 6 I S WR I T T E N ON T A P E 1 FROM I N T E 3 P . 35C = v F A . ’ <‘*9 , ? r>r.) ( VEC C > , 1 = 1 , NMpS) 351= W I T F U . l 3 5 ) ( V E C ( I ) . I s 1 , NMOS) 352=H ifl5 FM3 !■•A” < ^ F l 0 • 6) 353= O- L w I l i ^ E - P ( E , U= , M H O S , I ! J T , 2 ) 351.= r . E A O ( < ? , 9 5 Q ) (VE<: { . ) , I = l f N " 0 2 ) 3 5 5 s w - 1 r £ ( l 1 1 . B 3 ) ( VCC ( I ) * 1 - 1 , r j ; i OS ) 3 5 6 s C-L_ ;N _ E F (E,lli , N N O S ,; N 7 , 3 ) 3 5 7 = A2Ai'(F * , 9 - 1 ) ( V t C ( i > , I = l , N C O S ) 3 5 5 W - I - t d , 9 5 J ) ( V C C C ) , I - l , N.‘1 0 S ) = 3 6 ? = CALL 1 N T E - . P - f - I T E U , 35 0 3 6 1 s W' I ~ E ( l * l ' < f 5 ) < U n ( I ) , Z = l , 2 9 ) 3 5 « = » E ,U r , N C O S,IN T ,9) .1=1,2**) 3 6 2 = 3 6 3 = 3 6 9 = 365=176 366= r CA0 ( . 5 , 96J?) ( V E c ( X ) , : * l , 9 6 ) w - : " < l , 9 r>0) ( VFL C ) , 1 = 1 , 9 6 ) GuNTI - . UE HEAD < 9 9 , 1 0 9 0 ) ( P L OT ,< 3 7 3 = 20 0 L K.TI'.U" 3 7L = lC 9 2 F;.-'A7(1H ,A10 ,13) 379 = P'IFT 1 0 9 7 376=109 J FOI.-'ATt* = H T F P . T H E C O D E N U M B E R S O F T H E V A R I A B L E S Y O U W I S H TO 377 = ♦ - P L O T T E D O N T H E - , ' * L I M E P R I N T E i R. ONE ENTRY PER LINE. TV>E 3 76 = * T L E* ' -)*) *■ : A ..* , N 3 79=20 5 3*0 = . p i n . ; t . 2 ? ) g o tl 210 361 = K IT“ <1,i:9A)PLGT 3 6 2 = 1 0 9 367=215 >.* a ; - , n 3*x = I F < , C•T . 2 T ) F- 1 T u 221 3 69 = C THE PLOT Ltl D 0 1 R E C T I O N S 11 F O R L I N E P R I N T E R * 2 FOR 3 9 3 = C C ^ L C O M P J J P E WF J T T E N ON T A P E l . 391= W ~ I 7 E ! 1 , 1 9 h >PLOTON) 3 9 2 = 10 5 * F V H A T < H ; , L X , 1 H 2 > 3 PUR ( J U l i f . i U ) + G . L P U k ( J - l ) s-' UP. CJ ) - U r - O I F PU(. < J U > = ' U M J > * U R O I F P t ( J ) ; t ( K) A 21= A22* A 33 = 3 A 2 A * A25 = A26= A27« K * l , ? u l F ( K . - . C ( , 2 L ) f . 181 <*3C=5 ci-:;*:! 4 . ? I = C Tc-E k 32 = C C I N V E - T O 4.3.3 = 5 0 C. <=>5 4.34* = 4. 35 = 5 Ul I Hr!" F p . C A L C U L A T E ! ) ‘ BY T H E PROGRAM TO ‘" A t L'ND»-f- MONTH NUMBER ( 1 * 1 2 ) . < = 1 , 72 (1*156) IS H C t . ~ H . - K .F(.-0nTH 2 4 . 3 6 s Mt .LC. 1 2 ) GO TO 5 5 l l " h = ! I O f j T H - 1 2 C O - 0 5? 4»3-» = C U ’.E.'IP.I E ’P L C ' V , , F I F C T P A Y M E N T , A N O I N I T I A L a d d i t i o n 4«3- = C A ' F D- Ti A- i ; ;!£■> P A S E i J O N T H E I R M O N T H N L H S E . S . 4 . 3 7 = 4.4.0 = 55 U TO ( 13>., 1 4 . 0 , 1 5 0 , 1 6 G , 1 7 0 , 1 8 0 , 19G , 2 Q i , 2 1 0 , 2 2 3 , 2 3 0 , 24.0) 10NTH 4 . 4 . 1 = 1 3 0 l i \ F A C = !♦<*? = F T F . - C - l . 6 l 6 L “ 3 = I f : F A C GO 1 . = l T O C 7 2 . 3 T Q 2 ^ 0 4* ( . 6 = 1 4 . 0 0 - (.(,6 = F F F - C - - 1 . 5 2 5 U* 7 = I f A A A s G O «* < * 9 = 1 5 0 U - 4 . 5 0 = F 4 . 5 1 = 4 . 5 2 = 4.5 3 = 1 6 G 4 ,-jU s i * S ? r i c 2 2 5 0 t! = 1 . F -P = i t o F . . 1 C 1 5 9 - 1 . 0 J U : i .f - : = i . i 2 3 C-O “ C 2 5 0 U r F . - C F = F A C = 1 p 1 . 0 7 3 r r ~ Kj - . 36■* : i . F ^ C - * l . 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V R MEND fshuost 1 F S R E X R ADCR ADCU EXTLflST EXTUOST FSHUOST FiyCnsT F s HUOST FSHCnST Fa'IU-OGT FaHLOST 1 1 4 , 2 8 . 4 5 , , 0 0 0 0 1 0 PAGES PRINT, 00P474 LINES PRINT, FOR S 0(10,52 AT R02, 423 424 425 426 427 428 <12? 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 APPENDIX F BASIC SOURCES OF HISTORICAL DATA AND CONVERSION PROCEDURES 191 192 Table 1 Sources o f Data S e r ie s Series Sources 1. Total C i v i l i a n Labor Force (Michigan) MESC C i v i l i a n Labor Force Es ti m at es Benchmark S e r i e s 3/74:1970-1974 Benchmark S e r ie s 3/75:1975-1977 2. Total Employment (Michigan) Same as Number 1 3. Total Unemployment (Michigan) Same as Number 1 4. Unemployment Rate (Michigan) Same as Number 1 5. Unemployment Rate (United S t a t e s ) Survey o f Curr ent B u s in e s s . U. S. Dept, o? Commerce/Bureau o f Eco'nomlc Analysis 1970-1976 6. Number o f Working Weeks Per Month Bureau of Employment & T r a i n i n g / Employment Planning D iv is io n - P o lic y Unit e s t i m a t e s . 7. Michigan L iable Continued Weeks Claimed Compensable - Regular Benefits MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1970-1977 8. Michigan Agent Continued Weeks Claimed - Regular B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1970-1977 9. Michigan L iable Continued Weeks Claimed Compensable - Extended Benefi t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s D, 1971-1972, 74-77 10. Michigan Agent Continued Weeks Claimed - Extended B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s 0 1971-1972, 74-77 11. Michigan L i a b le Continued Weeks Claimed Compensable - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s , S e r i e s D 1975-1977 12. Michigan Agent Continued Weeks Claimed - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s , S e r ie s 0 1975-1977 13. Michigan L ia b l e I n i t i a l Ad dition al Claims - Regular B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1970-1977 14. Michigan Agent I n i t i a l Add itio na l Claims - Regular B e n e fits MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1970-1977 15. F i r s t Payments - Regular B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1970*1977 16. Michigan L i a b le I n i t i a l Ad ditional Claims - Extended B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1971-72, 74-77 193 S e r ie s Sources 17. Michigan Agent I n i t i a l A dditional Claims - Extended B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s C 1971-72, 74-77 18. F i r s t Payments - Extended B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s 0 1971-72, 74-77 19. Michigan L ia ble I n i t i a l Additional Claims - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r ie s C 1975-1977 20. Michigan Agent I n i t i a l Additional Claims - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r ie s C 1975-1977 21. F i r s t Payments - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r ie s D 1975-1977 22. Exhaustions - Regular B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r ie s D 1970-1977 23. Exhaustions - Extended B e n e f i t s MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s D 1971-72, 74-77 24. Exhaustions - FSB MESC Program S t a t i s t i c s S e r i e s D 1970-1977 25. ADC-R Caseload Monthly f i g u r e s d e r iv e d through i n t e r ­ p o l a t i o n o f Q u a r t e r l y Caseload Data from Dept, o f Social S e r v ic e s (Data Reporting S e c t i o n ) . 26. ADC-U Caseload Same as above 27. General A s s i s ta n c e Caseload Same as above 28. ADC-R Case Openings (ra te entering) Same as above 29. ADC-U Case Openings (ra te entering) Same as above 30. General A s s i s ta n c e Case Openings ra te entering) Same as above 31. ADC-R Case Closings ( r a te leaving) Same as above 32. ADC-U Case Closings ( r a t e l e a v in g ) Same as above 33. General A s s i s t a n c e Case Closings ( ra te leaving) Same as above 194 Table 2 Regular Program Yeu Month 1971 Jan Feb, Much April May June Inly A No. Working Waake Par Mo. B Mteh. Uabla Continued Weals Claimed CompenaabJa (Conpenubie ♦ Waiting W«ak) Mich. Agent Continued Watts Claimed D Total (Penon* Weals) D*B+C E Appro*. Laval (Panon-Montha) E .f i SundardUed Laval of Rag U.I. F « £ 4.54 S A OfUI «.« 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 . 4.6 4.2 4.4 2,985,965 534,232 531,791 300,909 273,393 191,751 310,000 240,133 421,140 221,396 139.516 146.715 165.063 92.377 6,403 9.931 9.530 4,743 3,307 3,341 4,165 4,546 3.913 2,939 3,237 4,272 3,036,042 350,869 337,759 306.069 278,139 198,098 213,641 244,328 425.666 225,571 142,457 149,942 169.335 697,51J 71,927 80.419 72,873 63,213 42,404 33.410 53,115 96.747 53,707 30,969 35,700 43,031 696,962 67,940 63,199 75.366 62,422 40,053 56.017 90,170 99.537 59,562 39.252 36,933 42,493 Otc. 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 44 2,821.932 262,357 297.420 259,321 272,655 165,500 188,215 294,532 377,869 173,992 130,549 169,912 250,010 90,973 5,239 5,560 5.522 5,451 3,153 3,344 3.901 4.144 3,313 2486 3,629 4,838 2,873,908 267,596 302,960 264,843 276,106 168,653 191,559 258,433 362,013 176,905 133,435 173,537 254,845 663,602 58,173 65,745 63,058 63,206 42.876 45,609 56,181 90,985 40,206 29,006 43,384 55,401 668,123 54,946 62,278 65,235 62.416 42,340 47,164 53,067 94,096 39,703 27,400 47,126 52430 1970 Jan. Fab. Much April May Juna July Aug. Sapi. Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 6416421 377,192 582,008 520,509 549,620 448,503 433,768 466436 677,766 470,411 441,469 617,391 609,726 I09JH8* 7,214 10,051 9,171 8,403 7465 7,721 7,744 9,251 6,767 6,358 11,258 11,775 6423439 384,406 592,059 529480 558,023 455,768 441,509 499,960 667,017 479,196 449427 626,649 621,503 1,498,775 87,365 146,015 120,362 126.823 106,521 100,343 107,822 163,575 108,909 102,233 149478 135,109 1,464.562 86.273 160,781 118,877 125.238 112,266 99.089 101,545 169,223 107447 100.955 154,846 127,620 1971 Jan. Fab. Much April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.2 4.0 44 4.4 44 44 4.4 44 4.4 4.2 44 4.6 6,623,549 733,709 777,081 663,006 613,578 537,989 475,535 413,995 666.167 467,902 347,443 413,197 493,983 153,094 14,503 16,779 14,584 13,256 11.744 11,137 10,064 12,545 13,190 9,929 11,643 13,680 6,776,599 748,212 793,860 677,590 626,834 549,733 486,672 424,019 696,713 481,092 357,372 424,640 507,663 1,564,382 178,146 198,465 147,302 142,462 130,889 110,607 96,366 156,796 109.330 85,089 96,555 110.362 1.571,896 184,296 215,583 139,137 140,681 135,408 109425 95,163 156,613 107.972 88.026 95,348 104.244 Aug. SapI* Oct. Nov. Dae. 1909 Jan. Fab. Much April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov; 195 Tibia 2 (Coattauad) F 1,292,222 127,260 141,857 126,429 122.155 101,869 89,106 122,847 8,622 8,481 5,507,825 576,912 595,798 627.619 402.619 468,691 292,077 542,157 552.048 217,652 219,461 225,192 257,598 2,676,526 499,619 429,780 454447 286,056 220,158 270,112 210,828 297,167 245479 286,696 271,517 240,545 96,902 11,614 10,089 10,276 7,701 7,202 6,267 7439 7,872 6.449 7,640 7,524 6.449 4,328,107 511,222 439,839 464,623 393,757 337,361 276,479 318,467 405,039 251.728 294,526 286,051 348,994 989.676 111,138 104.724 105,596 93,752 73,339 65,628 72479 66,052 62,932 64,030 65.012 83,094 965,602 104,977 106,339 104,276 96.988 49,274 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 8,635,092 765,703 845,367 894,624 920,288 725,869 862,104 620433 681400 505,725 505,782 546,405 1,051,792 158437 15,795 15,117 14,631 12,936 11,168 9,836 11,732 10,746 10,718 12,699 13,291 19,966 6.793,929 781.498 860,384 909,455 933,224 747,037 871,940 433,065 691.948 516,443 516,481 859,696 1,071,758 2,026,168 169,891 215.096 216,537 212.096 162,399 142,985 137,405 157.261 122,963 112,713 113.261 243,561 2,033,448 160,473 233,648 224,013 209,445 153.397 155417 129*788 155,295 127.208 106,465 137,862 240,537 1975 Jan. Fab. March April May Juna July Aug. Safrt* Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.6 4.0 4.2 44 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 44 4.6 4.0 4.6 13,156,451 1,479,260 1,506.558 1,623,927 1451,044 1,132472 976,083 968,874 912,614 737,680 783,022 669459 912,958 321,516 25,137 26,524 28,942 27,445 24,934 25,209 28,458 26,655 27,363 26,970 23471 30,408 12,677,967 1,504,397 1,533,082 1452,869 1,476,489 1*157,606* 1,003,292 997,332 939,669 765,043 809,992 692,630 943,366 3,110,626 327,043 383.271 293,540 336,020 263,138 238.879 216,811 223,730 173,673 176,065 173,156 205.080 3,127,236 301,913 416,328 407,127 331,820 259.848 247.126 204.792 231.455 171.700 166424 168,092 193,711 1976 Jan. Fab. March April May Juna July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 44 44 914,484 853,932 946,285 755.806 621.864 664,154 670,947 724,016 591,444 577471 660,549 796,172 40,522 27,084 29471 23,574 19,674 22,511 22,682 23,751 22416 21497 23,879 25496 217.046 220.254 212.077 177.132 152,747 156,040 157,643 169,947 139,514 142.611 155.552 178,580 214434 239,250 200421 174.916 158.021 154.109 155,672 167,623 137,770 147,535 153,607 168,680 1972 Ian. Fib. March April May 138,020 14.819 15,544 16,566 12,808 12,024 10,409 July Aug. Sapt* Oct. Not. Die. 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.4 44 4.2 5,459,600 542.094 580,259 611,052 479.811 454,457 281,648 550,924 541,176 209,444 211,027 224,570 249,117 1972 iaa. Fab. March April May Ju&a July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 1974 Jaa. Fab. March April May Juna July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dae. Juac 11,222 10.872 8,208 8^4)4 955,006 881,016 975.556 779462 641,536 686.665 693,629 747,767 613,860 598,966 684,426 621,466 120,010 75,621 72,605 76,180 85,142 1,300420 142,102 146,754 128,675 133,777 96,241 67,995 136,468 113,358 78,243 71,697 75,226 88,082 66,101 71,474 83.171 68460 60,480 64,199 85,963 o> * * ^* ort O*P -* 977 Jan. Fab. March April May Juna July Au*. Sapt Oct. Nov. Dac. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 6.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 229,309 209,176 242,167 220,394 194,219 212,674 177,659 163,019 167,616 152,564 161,147 171,028 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 167,271 164.346 200,824 165,563 162,643 2,243 2,716 3,011 2.656 2,207 2,386 2,060 2,014 1,711 1,830 1,611 231,562 211,894 245,196 223,051 197,426 215,062 179,939 185,240 169,630 IS4J7S 163,677 172439 52,626 52,974 53.304 50,693 47,006 48,876 40,695 42,100 36,552 36,732 37,199 37,574 51,970 57.542 50.349 50.060 48,629 46,367 40,364 41,574 36,070 38,000 36,734 35,49! 1,731 1.589 2.125 1,667 1,875 169,002 165,9)5 202,949 187,230 164,518 38,409 41,484 44,119 44,579 41,936 37.939 45,962 41,673 46,116 41.412 2,221 199 Table 4 Federal Supplemental Benefits Y in Month A Ho. WorU&t Weeks Pm MO. 1979 July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.0 D Total (Person* Weeks) D * B+ C Mich. Liable Continued Weeks Claimed Com* pensable (Compensable ♦ Waiting Week) Mkh. Agent Continued We«lu Claimed 402,622 321.449 397,196 1,382 1,497 1,730 2,009 2,042 2*469 404,004 369,340 340,311 370,934 337,346 294,699 323,216 277,615 369,146 4.6 339.676 428.495 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dac. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 367 459 338,247 377,737 339,290 293,329 321,669 276,304 287.943 269,829 243,776 260,854 298,799 2,081 1,064 2,197 2,096 1,370 1,951 1,311 1,395 1,167 955 1,015 1977 Jan. Feb. March April May* June July Aug. StpL Oct. Nov. Dec. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 240,927 224,029 258,206 252,943 176,546 735 749 1,090 1,124 1,077 322,902 399,986 371,194 337,718 430,950 Approx. Level of FSB (Person-Months) Sundu’dlied I m l of FSB 87,827 76,861 81,724 60,686 84,430 93,689 92.958 79,535 60,702 76,213 83,940 69,078 82,890 92,416 76,016 75,711 72,589 72,540 62,306 4.346 91,712 88.492 1976 886 270,992 244,737 261.869 299,685 02,904 76,670 70,166 73,498 63.094 65,659 61,589 58.269 59.516 56,493 241.662 224,774 259418 294,067 179,623 54,923 56.194 56459 60,492 40,623 288,696 64,839 40.619 60,281 58,772 53,324 54,237 61,040 53,244 62,561 40,313 200 Tabic 5 Angular Year Month A No. Working Wttki par B Mich. Liable For Month C Initial Additional Claims D Mich. Agnot Air Month Total (B + C) Month 1968 lan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dee. 4.6 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4J 4.6 4.4 4.4 e Weekly Avenge Flnt Paymeflts G Weekly Avenge F Per Month * 28,827 20,287 14,416 11,842 11,953 13.968 23,234 21,624 8.820 11,446 18,069 19.065 Initial Additional ♦ First Payment * W e e ^ ^ f n g e RUI Standardised RUI Ha4.345 440 494 243 264 214 238 326 234 226 217 294 294 28,967 30,711 14,659 12,106 13,167 14,306 23,862 31,858 9,046 11,663 16,911 15459 5,645 7413 3,490 2,781 2,645 3,552 5,132 4,968 2,154 2,535 3,491 3491 37,119 19,739 15,988 13,813 9,430 11485 19,196 75,416 16,982 6,273 8,833 13,555 8,898 4,697 3,807 3,071 2.050 2,839 4.173 17,140 4,043 1,796 2.101 3,061 11,540 12,009 7,297 8422 7,340 6,391 9,295 22,106 6,197 4,333 5,593 6,572 80.141 52,179 31.705 28,265 20,390 27.756 40,366 96,015 26.914 19,600 24,216 26,842 3,395 4,431 2,706 8,666 2.883 4,035 13,096 3,377 2,204 2,093 4,746 5,197 33,226 20.120 13,919 13,414 9,974 12416 34,933 59,079 13,807 6,066 11,964 19,662 5,049 5,030 3,314 3,049 2,267 2,932 5,420 14,066 3,138 1,753 2,991 4,322 6.444 13,692 6,020 6,735 4,850 6,967 18416 17,442 5,342 3,645 7,739 9419 36,672 4,101 26,145 37,936 35,395 30,258 80,415 75,755 23,200 16,699 33,610 41,341 1969 lea. 4.6 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 19,316 17,406 11.091 24,744 11.208 16,696 59,672 13,969 9,489 9,439 18,763 23,866 299 Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 341 15,615 17,723 11,366 25,017 11,365 16,946 60,239 14,182 9,696 11466 16,991 33,909 1970 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 4.4 4.0 4A 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 40,097 59,978 39,433 37411 24462 30,483 39,316 34,644 32,627 26,698 41.408 53.278 474 517 420 430 369 393 843 817 503 473 606 649 40,831 60,492 38453 36,241 24,637 30,675 69,656 35,161 33,129 27,170 42,011 53,927 9412 18,123 6,146 6,691 5,664 7,017 15,167 8,373 7,529 6,173 10,002 11,723 31,487 43,738 32,467 30,559 31,968 20,231 41,001 64,950 19451 64.082 38,568 27,161 7,149 10,665 7,383 6.945 5430 4,596 6,913 15,464 4,396 5.473 6,801 5,905 16461 25,606 10,631 15,636 11,094 11,615 24,100 16,836 11,927 11,646 16403 17,626 71,051 4,208 67,451 67,907 48.161 50,444 104,666 103,520 51,799 80.887 72,975 76458 1971 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec 4.2 4.0 4.6 44 4.2 44 44 44 44 4.2 4.4 4.6 43,969 34,074 33,664 31,291 27,476 25,634 43,772 19,739 25,066 16.615 29,205 33,042 44401 34,708 34,201 31,907 27,954 26,135 44,260 30.436 35,707 19,077 19,670 33,634 10,618 6,676 7,438 7,252 6,656 5,940 10,059 6,916 5,642 4,542 6,769 7,355 43,390 37,256 24,405 22,968 21,028 19,062 19,573 79,695 21.107 21,865 22.296 33,251 10,331 9,314 8405 5,230 5,006 4,332 4,446 18,113 4,620 8,206 8,066 7,228 20,949 17,992 12,740 12,472 11,662 16,212 14,507 25,031 10,662 9,748 11,657 14,583 90,961 76,139 55,330 34,166 50,648 44.611 63.004 108,710 46,305 42,336 81,498 63,334 317 275 273 157 250 367 213 211 195 229 201 T itd $ (Cooti&uaO) A B C 1972 Jan. Fab. Much April May JUA9 July Au«. Sapi. Oct. Nov. Dac. 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 26,221 22,880 23.607 16,344 17,612 30,764 54,929 17,537 12,095 14,896 19,880 23,445 626 477 493 374 405 481 469 413 430 423 433 500 28.847 23.357 24,100 16,718 18,017 31,245 55,398 17,950 12,515 15,319 20,313 23,965 6,660 5.562 3,065 4,160 3,917 7,101 13,190 3,902 2,980 3,461 4,616 5,706 38,455 29,453 26,504 18,209 17,623 19,681 57,376 49,250 15,690 14,971 18,393 23,952 1973 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Auk. Sapt Oct. Nov. Dac. 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.2 4.6 44 4.4 4,6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 20,303 14,610 15,333 13.432 13,146 12,212 14,862 12,136 10,561 16,571 16.705 39,172 554 316 308 301 283 331 373 351 322 433 435 519 20,857 14,926 15,641 13,733 13,429 12,543 15,235 12,487 10,883 17,004 17,140 39,691 4,535 3.554 3,555 3,270 2,920 2,967 3,463 2,714 2,721 3,696 3,895 9,451 33,606 23,310 21,732 16,435 14,967 13,667 19.872 44,064 12.682 14,797 17,497 29,735 1974 laa. Fab. March April May Juna July Aup. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dac. 44 4.0 44 4.4 44 4.0 4.6 4.4 44 4.6 4.2 44 •0,106 88,047 108,510 57,764 44,401 23JOS 54,743 45,343 21,900 38,594 61,113 84,457 747 425 425 390 388 347 506 477 499 726 829 1,026 10,113 11,473 108,935 91.154 44.789 3M 92 99,249 49.920 22,399 39.320 61,942 •9,482 17,576 23,118 29,937 13,217 9,736 5,888 1975 laa. Fab. March April May Juna July Aup. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dac. 4.6 4.0 4.2 44 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 106,384 83.372 73,935 38,067 43,254 41,406 87,334 51,357 37,671 36,748 40,681 50,739 •41 596 579 711 801 963 1,020 936 979 942 •70 1,146 107,425 83.970 74,514 58,178 44,055 43,369 88.354 52.295 38,650 39,690 41,551 51,687 16,024 12,575 9,827 8,732 7,792 11,574 26,851 14,609 6,716 6,884 8,796 11,409 69,592 54,613 38,336 37,923 33.841 50,266 11,661 63,447 29,168 29,897 36,201 49,549 7.306 5,550 4,939 3.913 3,254 3,259 4,516 9,575 3.171 3,217 3.977 7,060 11,841 9,104 8,494 7,183 6.174 6,246 7,979 12,289 5,892 6,913 7,873 16,531 51,425 39.539 36,889 31,196 26.814 27,126 34,653 53,371 25,602 30,023 34,192 71.794 7 10,413 5,333 8.548 14,748 19.438 77,818 76,021 94,124 39,018 28,593 21,084 34,681 90,799 26,361 33.246 37,861 93,02 34,493 41,123 38,824 32.085 15.953 11.159 19,350 3,149 11,586 15,558 23,763 40,594 149,803 178,597 168,613 95,915 69,279 48.464 84,906 134,846 50,318 67,568 103,203 176.300 23.353 20.993 17,742 13,359 10,012 10,088 19,208 12,451 8,784 8,626 10,388 11,280 139,322 91.444 72,047 49,851 36,297 28,430 41,836 78,442 30,007 33,598 31,733 48.724 30,287 22,861 17,154 11,330 8,249 6,679 9,095 16,677 6,630 7,304 7,933 10,592 53,640 43,664 34.896 24,689 18,261 16,767 28,303 31,128 15,604 15,932 18,321 21,872 232.959 190,456 151,553 107,224 79.308 72.819 122,916 135.189 67,612 69,193 79,368 94,990 12,011 5 202 Tibk 5 (Continued) 1976 Ita. Feb. March April May June July Au» Sept. Oct. 1977 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct Nov. Dec. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 26.213 30.691 34.356 24,532 24,436 25,400 41,016 26.223 26,634 27,907 404 59 43.009 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 36.793 40,102 27,601 31,119 19,816 963 559 753 624 789 770 •19 766 •13 950 1,027 39,176 31.150 35,109 25,156 25,325 26,170 41,635 26,956 27,446 26,635 41,109 44,036 6,635 7,768 7,632 3,717 6,006 5.946 9,506 6,134 6436 6,616 9,343 9,573 66,903 37,523 33,607 27.263 21,664 24,417 41,632 63,146 25,306 26,596 34.396 55,345 15,205 9,381 7,349 6.201 5,163 5,549 9,462 14,351 5,752 6,609 7,817 12,032 21.640 17,169 14,961 11.918 11,169 11,497 16,970 20,485 11,990 13,627 17,160 21.605 94,651 74.565 65,062 S1.76C 48.507 49,931 62467 86,966 52,073 59.162 74,526 93,630 932 672 716 616 642 39,735 40,774 26,519 21,735 20,458 9,026 10,193 6,200 5,175 4,650 61,066 42,623 37,571 22,545 22,136 13,879 10,656 8,166 5.368 5,031 22.907 20,M9 14468 10.543 9,681 99.465 90,547 62,427 45.809 42,065 203 Tabta « E itia iid I m f l * Year Mo o t h A No* Working Waaka Hr Mootil • Mkh. A « n t N* Month ^d^iioBil Qaisa c Mich. Lkhta Nr Month o Toul (B * C) E Weekly Avert,* Flnt h y a in ti G Weakly Moolk Anrt|« r nr *S> H luitinl Addittoml * Tint Payment* • WttUy Avenm EB (E * 0) t S h n to B n t REB H x 4.M l 1971 Ok . 4.2 4.0 4*6 4.4 4.2 4.4 4A 4A 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4 11 20 9 19 16 10 7 20 11 20 19 014 963 976 976 MSS 1,406 1,790 1,606 2.063 1,626 2,0S4 1,662 616 974 796 667 1,268 1,424 1,800 1.015 2,068 1,839 2,074 1,701 198 244 217 224 302 324 409 413 473 438 471 369 10,837 13,267 11,240 12,914 12.789 11,106 6,697 10,016 8,691 8,686 8,211 9,663 3,860 3,322 2.443 2,938 3.045 2.824 2,016 2.276 1,978 2,061 1,866 2,146 2,787 3,866 2,660 3,189 3,347 2,648 2,427 2,669 2,448 2,499 2,337 2,817 12,087 18,494 u .s s o 13,726 14,843 12,376 10,848 11,664 10,637 10,886 10,184 10,936 1971 Jib . Feb. March April May Jim July Aug. 4.2 4.2 4.6 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 43 48 36 13 1 7 7 2 1,282 1,186 1,106 119 123 1 1 0 1,324 1,203 1,144 132 124 a 6 2 318 267 249 33 27 2 2 4 9,066 9,979 12,196 4,836 267 232 33 30 2,163 2,376 2,682 1,209 88 53 8 7 2,478 2,663 2,901 1,242 18 S3 10 It 10,767 11,571 12,605 5,396 369 239 43 46 Fib. March April May Juat July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Die. 4.0 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 4A 4.3 4.6 4.2 4.4 0 0 7 7 10 12 1 13 18 32 13 0 0 249 669 1.092 1,669 1,869 1,741 2,844 4,289 4,734 0 0 256 876 1,101 1,681 1,890 1,784 2462 4,321 4,747 0 0 89 191 270 366 429 417 621 1,029 1,079 0 0 31400 15,493 11,995 16,161 16,335 10,491 10,947 10,149 13,735 7,091 3466 2,999 3,513 3,713 2498 2,380 2,416 3,122 7,150 3,559 3,274 3,879 4,142 2.915 3,002 3.445 4,201 31,067 15,464 14426 16,684 17,997 12*664 13.044 14,969 18,253 m ’ Jaa. Fab* March April May Juoa July Aug. Sipt. Oct. Nov. Dae. 4.6 4.0 4,2 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.0 4.6 24 45 86 85 75 * 100 90 104 128 63 68 61 2.897 1,611 14)1 2,160 1,916 3400 3,754 3,277 4,940 8461 5474 5,044 2,921 1,717 1*669 2,245 1,991 2,500 3,644 3,361 5,645 5,474 5439 5,105 635 732 402 810 453 595 836 805 1,151 1,190 1435 1,110 15,168 17,345 20,932 27,901 32493 31,620 34,911 24,646 21,871 21,844 17,786 22,125 3,301 4t336 4,963 6*341 7,384 7,576 7.S69 5,869 4,971 4,757 4,447 4,610 3.936 8,068 8*365 6*651 7,637 8,171 8*425 6,674 6,122 7,137 5,782 5,920 17,102 22,020 23*398 29*766 34,052 38*503 36*607 26a5Aft 26,600 31,010 28,123 28,722 1974 Jen* Fib. March April May Juac July Aug. Sipt. Oct. Nov. Dae* 4A 4.0 44 4.4 44 44 44 4.4 4A 4*2 44 4.6 84 38 65 40 45 41 49 62 58 41 68 51 2,695 1,900 2,116 2,033 1,904 2,242 2.457 2,546 2406 2*964 3417 2,976 2,749 1,938 2,181 2,073 1,949 2463 2,806 2*606 2,664 3,028 3,665 3*027 625 465 474 471 464 819 470 893 681 720 663 673 19*802 16,189 21,203 20,706 16,433 16,436 14,666 14,112 12,216 11422 12*660 15*125 4,432 4,540 4,609 4*706 3,913 3,735 3,336 3*207 2,776 2*720 2477 3,361 8,057 8.025 8,063 5*177 4*377 4,254 3,906 3,600 3,427 3,440 3,760 4,080 21,973 21,834 22.066 22*494 19,018 18.464 16,960 16,511 14,690 14.947 16,337 17,810 iw . Fib. Muck April May Jum July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. 1974 • • - — - 204 Tabla 6 (Coatiawd) 0 1977 Jan. F*». Mardi April May Jiui* July Ai«. Sapl. Ocu Nov. Dac. 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 4J 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 40 m 73 44 37 C D E 3,049 1*S4I 1,949 1,919 3,011 3,103 1.344 1,417 1,999 3,044 474 397 393 444 445 F 19,494 13,974 14,947 17,440 14,793 G 1,599 3391 4,033 4,353 9.343 H 4,037 4,393 4,344 4,711 3,434 17,J39 14,447 19,044 30,SOI 14,430 205 T.bta 7 M m l Suppitm.nul Bcetflti Year Month A No. Working WMbptf initial Additional ClaimI 8 C 0 Mich. U»b4t Mich. Agent Total F%r Month Par Month UWO>-4~30to«**- H m i i f t 9w i m m u uV m m m m iCr m * m m i m Vm »e»»N*M»ibeoi ****«»»»**«* ib*wV»b» Vl*bi^ *•»»*»*».»*»* bbbbbi b»b»bb »*»*»»»»*»»* Mbbbbbbbbbbb »w » l'l44 e mqi u«l *«< «t »<4 « HW« buwb' -bbVMbv; -4e«t4PUw Mu *t 4« t na oa o« * bbbbbbybbubu ~ TO U- J U' J O N> S » ........ m u u m m l f i «) f WMMUA»a» i O a S a « a « (yai bbwb*t|ybWwb« »4uOM «MkUM UM wMa o a > » a a 0 4 c i w M ««pi»>M 9 a *•»»M <4 <4p>v4l o < Uk»-W a M w b a b b b t i N ai fa4ttauM4fie»> upyppapp ■ « i » » u i a ' a aeM**w aMMWHMMMaaat f • eaaM»uu<4MM( a mu 4 a a b a « a i a a ppppaa««4&pp u * l>b u wa o *aV o a y • e t toa «« o Ma4a«aa4aa»«t i p a 40 a p a p a i i « » h ‘>i b b w a ’a b «w*a aaea4a B *<4O w *» « b V « « V AWMua^*MWuuMi afi««u»eu-4a a« U u b * * b » b b '« u b i u w « u | b U « » b b *e«»b**aiM uy « o w * • • > ( ( O M U 4 ? * Mu o y b w» u«i HaMwa«a«ab g«»»uw^e***w sss 's'sb 'siiV u 's « < 4 a o « ' i » M S ' ‘ ai* »» « » ■ -ia»«o o o «*eaypa«»*al «*>*aU«*»**«bbbb a j b«5e-a»aa»«^ **w*iayuw<>a4awa bbbbawbtiiibwa »>-a^«-44xaaa« a ao*« 4wwa a wH« *iM4awo*iMM a*aweuaaMaaa w o «a»4aaaaa aNwMr >a N 4a4aa a4 ua M a uw av w a aw*M*a*MaW eM 4 ii «awaa^4aa44< «aow«owaaaa< » a 4 v w a n > a o ' >M< WMH w 4 u a a « a w w p4«4«wa««*tap ay»a4u«4»>a*>a * a w > i Ma a Ma « a B bb ba b4 bu bb bb by b« b o aa a« aa b b ba a bb a 4b 4b b^a bbbbbabba Mwaubbab^a^b M4 wa OMa o wwwr i * 0 4 4 « 0 a M* J W4 i “ - ■* " l O ' i w w a a a D w Vb b Wb b 4 4 Ob b 4 ooaM u oaao ((wnnpaoo) • m 208 Tabia 6 (Coatfnuad) A 1977 Jan. Fab. March Aprfl May Juaa July Au* Stpl. OCL Nov. Dac. 4.4 4.0 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.3 B 94.445 90,547 63,437 45.809 43,065 C 15.696 16,190 19,310 16,349 13,194 D 14,500 17,584 18,340 16,913 13,039 E 185,955 331,338 188,580 173,766 137,634 F + 33,066 ♦ 45,383 * 43,758 ♦ 14,814 ♦ 36,143 G 50,919 37478 86,945 14083 (-)O .76 .63 .83 .46 0 209 Tibia 9 Extended Benefltt Year Month A No. WorfcJai Weeta Pat Month B Rata Entering StaadanMaad EB C Rata Exhauaring Pw Month O StudarOnd Rat. E ilw M a i 9n Most, E Standardised Laval of EB F Ragular EB < w > 6 Standardised Rata Leaving (B-D-F) H ♦ 4.349 •11,991 ♦ 0,262 ♦ 4,317 • 4,061 • 6,037 ♦ 1,051 * 2,039 • 0,452 ♦ 173 - 547 400 15,002 (•> o 5 7,900 0,944 1,500 1,395 0,042 3303 4,644 35 .66 0 .0005 .46 34 .16 .16 .50 33 39 7 3,632 + 749 • 54) •13,440 •10,161 • 430 (•) o 3,09* 4,430 16,160 10380 603 0 .29 J2 .07 .07 .94 23 (§X4.345) 1971 laa. Fab. Match April May Juaa July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dac. 43 4.0 4.4 43 4.3 43 43 43 43 4.2 43 4.6 12307 10394 11,090 13,726 14,043 12*370 10349 11,404 10,637 10300 10,104 10.936 11,1*0 9319 0*117 9,219 9,000 9*373 7,733 0300 7394 7,992 4,749 7.241 11,074 10,440 7,647 9390 10321 9,200 7,636 0,246 7,203 0,260 6,400 6339 31,174 30,023 23,032 20,794 33,111 10343 22304 24,044 26,103 10,601 10,033 20376 1972 Jan. Fab. March April May Juaa July Au* Sept. Oct. 4J 4.2 4.4 43 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.2 43 10,767 11,071 12,400 9*396 369 239 43 40 7,041 7367 9320 2344 1,010 20 73*4 7,724 0,713 2,476 142 34 - •» 33,900 24,657 24,123 10,6*3 522 04 20 11 9 4 _ 1974 April ' 4 3 May 43 Juna 4,0 July 4.4 43 Au*. Sapt. 4.2 Oct. 43 Nov. 43 Dae. 43 31,067 10,444 14,224 16394 17,997 12,644 13,044 14,969 tu n 1970 Jan. Fab. March April Mar June July Au*. Sapt. Oct. Nov, Doe. 43 4.0 43 43 43 4J 43 43 43 43 4.0 43 44 197* /« . Fab. Much April May June July Au*. Sapt Oct. Nov. Dac, 4.0 44 4.4 4.2 4A 4.4 44 4.4 44 4.4 4.* • • _ _ _ _ _ * — _ • 14,911 11.411 « ,« » .,016 9,914 (J l? 9,194 67 7.7)0 16319 10,700 0,030 0,293 9366 0,614 9377 26307 34,190 44,790 31,222 32,011 33.031 27,126 20300 34,470 ♦ 9 J00 ♦ 1*095 •13,560 + 1,209 ♦ 1,320 • 6,790 ♦ 1354 > 6,090 <*) o (■) 0 19,634 0,1*3 3,053 10,473 5,101 2,006 0 O .63 .49 .20 31 30 .24 17,102 22,020 33,390 29.740 34302 30,00) 34,407 20,999 36,400 31310 20,123 20,723 9.179 9,449 12,1 M 14,419 11,194 17,400 21,101 19,9*0 I9JO* 10,921 14,700 14421 0,646 10344 123*7 14307 17,929 10307 19,931 19310 19,610 19303 10,977 13333 37,100 42*300 47,450 55375 63300 79,900 70,627 01,620 73,719 43,200 47,019 40,713 + 2,710 ♦ 5,070 ♦ 5300 ♦ 7325 + 7,925 +16,700 • 1,202 + 3,002 • 7,909 •11,4)9 + 4,739 • 6,306 5,726 6,606 5,591 5,536 0,190 SO* 17,900 6,302 14,091 23,066 4,407 10,595 30 31 .31 .25 .31 .03 .46 .25 .43 .53 33 .57 21*973 21*1)4 22*004 22,4*4 14411 16,404 14*900 14*011 14J90 14*947 143)7 17*010 15,797 13,922 10,327 14343 13314 10,433 12307 11,902 10,174 10,193 10,440 10,993 10,400 10,123 14377 14310 13300 13340 13,004 11,713 01,970 07,042 00,349 50,040 40329 40347 40,3*4 41,074 30*970 30,000 36,734 30,491 0,743 0,072 7,19) 309 1,431 342 7303 1,190 3,004 70 1,244 1343 10,114 1,139 14,002 0,303 7,191 «• 10349 10,940 10.337 10303 _ _ 0,001 12309 3,040 0,345 4,472 7.266 0.370 - 210 T.W. 9 (CoaOaiMd) A 197? Jan. Fab* March April May Juna July AUt Sapt. Oct Nov. Dec. 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 44 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.4 S 17*539 18*447 19,048 20,501 14,430 C 10,500 10,5?8 13,804 12*465 11,752 0 10,369 11,490 12,094 13,102 11,405 37.939 49,0*3 47,473 46,11* 41,413 * 2,43* * 7,133 • 3,3*9 + 1.1*9 ♦ 4,70* 4,732 3* 10.34 J 9,*44 319 .Jl -002 .49 .32 .03* 211 TaW.10 F.dwM Sum W Yfir Month A No. Worldni Wh U Pat Month Rata Enuring FSB C Rat* Exhausting Far Month D Standardized Rata Exhauatinf l i t Month i Ii I Banafltl Standard! ud Laval of FSB F FSB 0 12,602 <-)0 IS,JOT 43 0 .60 0 .42 1976 JlD. AM Fab. 4.0 4.6 4.4 4.3 March April May Juaa July Au*. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dac. AM 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.6 12,666 10,403 10,933 9.667 9*626 6,763 6,016 6*760 9,267 1977 Jan. Fab. March. April May Juaa July Au«* Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dac 4.4 4.6 4.6 44 4.4 4.4 44 4.6 AM 4.2 4.4 4.4 12.494 13.772 13*633 13.666 7,314 20463 212 Tibia 11 ADC-R Year Month A Monthly Caaeload 1969 Jan. Feb. March April May Juna July Aug. S apt Oct. Nov. Dec. D Employabla R ita Leaving B No. Employabla C Total R a ta l 48,981 49,498 50,016 50,957 51,897 52,838 54,091 55,345 56,598 58,110 59,621 61,133 10,462 10,573 10,683 10,884 11,085 11,286 11,554 11,822 12,089 12,412 12,735 13,058 1,288 1,*196 1,104 1,012 275 2SS 236 216 . — 1,043 1,055 1,066 1970 Jan. Febw March April May Juna July Aug. S ap t O ct Nov. Dec. 63,120 65,127 67,124 69,320 71,516 73,712 76,028 78,343 80,659 84,114 87,568 91,023 13,485 13,911 14,338 14,807 15,276 15,745 16,240 16,734 17,228 17,967 18,705 19,443 1971 Jan. Feb. March April May Juna July Aug. Sapt O ct Nov. Dac. 93,866 96,709 99,552 101,661 103,769 105,878 109,162 112,447 115,731 120,035 124,340 128,644 1972 Jan. F eb March April May Juhe July Aug. S apt Oct. Nov. Dec. 132,092 135,539 128,987 141,543 144,099 146,655 149,300 151,944 154,589 155,452 156,314 157,177 E Total Rata Entering F Employabla Rate Entering 1,805 1,855 1,904 1,953 386 396 407 417 223 225 228 2,555 2,728 2,901 546 582 620 1,078 1,070 1,062 1,054 1,154 1,255 1,355 1,349 1,342 1,336 1,476 1,616 230 229 227 225 246 268 289 288 286 285 315 345 3,075 3,133 3,192 3,250 3,390 3,530 3,671 4,044 4,417 4,791 4,727 4,663 657 669 682 694 724 754 784 864 943 1,023 1,010 996 20,450 20,656 21,264 21,714 22,165 22,615 23,317 24,018 24,720 25,639 26,559 27,248 1,757 1,766 1,775 1,785 1,839 1,892 1,946 2,005 2,064 2,123 2,178 2,232 375 377 379 381 393 404 416 428 441 453 465 477 4,600 4,364 4,129 3,893 4,339 4,785 5,231 5,630 6,029 6,428 6,169 5,965 982 932 882 832 927 1,022 1,117 1,202 1,287 1,373 1,318 1,274 28,215 28,951 27,552 30,234 30,779 31,326 31,890 32,455 33,020 33,204 33,389 33,573 2,286 2,478 2,670 2,862 2383 2,905 2,926 3,054 3,181 3,309 3,197 3384 488 529 570 611 616 621 625 652 679 707 683 659 5,734 5,629 5,523 5,418 5,471 5,524 5,578 5,109 4,640 4,171 4,174 4,177 1,225 1,202 1,179 1,157 1,168 1,180 1,191 1,091 991 891 892 8*2 213 A B C D E F 1973 Jan. Feb. M uch April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 158,383 139,593 160,800 161,203 161,603 162,003 163,137 164,270 163,402 166,467 167,333 168,398 33,631 34,087 34,193 34,433 34,518 34,177 34,846 33,088 33,330 33,337 33,785 36,012 2,972 3,393 3,818 4,241 4,262 4,284 4,305 4,378 4,430 4,323 4.431 5,339 635 725 816 906 910 90S 916 935 951 966 946 927 4,180 4,334 4,488 4,642 4,907 5,172 5,437 5,488 5,538 5,588 5,298 3,008 893 926 959 992 1,048 1,105 1,161 1,172 1,183 1,194 1,131 1,070 1974 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 169,070 169,541 170,013 170,753 171,494 172,234 173,236 174,238 175,240 176,761 178,281 179,802 36,113 36,214 36,148 36,479 36,631 36,789 37,003 37,217 37,431 37,734 18,081 38,406 4,246 4,437 4,627 4,817 4,733 4,634 4,372 4,514 4.436 4,399 4,309 4,214 907 948 988 1,029 994 977 964 952 939 920 901 4,718 4,998 3,278 3,557 5,563 5,568 5,574 5,689 5,804 5,919 5,788 5,657 1,008 1,068 1,127 1,187 1,188 1,189 1,191 1,215 1,240 1,264 1,236 1,208 1975 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 181,201 182,601 184,000 183,146 182,293 181,439 181,869 182,298 182,728 184,364 186,000 187,637 38,705 39,004 39,302 39,120 38,938 38,755 38,847 38,988 39,031 39,380 39,730 40,079 4,126 4,601 5,076 5,531 5,542 3,533 5,523 5.191 4,859 4,528 4,409 4,290 881 983 1,084 1,186 1,184 1,182 1,180 1,109 1,038 967 942 916 3.525 5,249 4,974 4,698 5,116 5,535 5,953 5,934 5,915 5,895 5,367 4,839 1,062 1,003 1,093 1,182 1,272 1,268 1,263 1,259 1,146 1,034 1976 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. S ept Oct. Nov. Dec. 187,776 187,915 188,053 187,300 186,947 186,394 186,181 185,968 185,756 185,050 184,344 183,637 40,109 40,139 40,168 40,050 39,932 39,814 39,768 39,723 39,677 39,527 39,376 39423 4,171 4.415 4,659 4,903 4,483 4,063 3,644 891 943 995 1,047 958 4,310 4,323 4,337 4,350 4,021 3,692 3,364 921 923 926 929 859 789 719 1,011 868 778 1,180 1,121 214 Table 11 (Continiwd) A 1977 Jan. Feb. March April May June July -Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 183,656 183,675 183,695 39,229 39,233 39,23? 215 TaMt 12 Year Mouth A Monthly Canloid 1969 Jaa. Fab. March Apr* Mar IllM lulr AUfUM Sept. Oct Nor. Dm . ,11,242 1,310 1,979 1450 1423 1,399 1,179 1,062 946 1,116 1 4 SS 1,499 B Rata Leavtaft 83 86 68 ADC-U Estimated L m h and Rates C Rata Eaiari»8 181 122 91 92 63 47 63 78 217 309 393 93 172 290 460 912 644 375 977 976 379 2,464 4,389 6,294 4.637 2,960 1970 Job . 1442 1329 Fab. March April May 2,616 2363 J.110 Jb m 2397 iuly Attf. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dae, 3,634 3,911 4,166 10,161 16,134 22,107 320 311 302 308 314 321 2,106 3,692 1971 Jaa. Fab March April May June July AU* Sept Oct NOV. Dae 17,793 13399 9,049 9,133 4311 9,309 9,911 10,913 11,119 11,332 11,949 11.746 9,677 4,089 2,501 913 903 693 863 973 1,067 1,159 1,041 923 1972 laa. Fab March April May Juna July An* Sapt Oct Nov. Dae 12,307 12,849 13,390 12.696 U,923 11,169 11,727 12,269 12.803 12,321 12,240 11,936 804 977 1,149 1420 1.129 930 735 611 687 963 773 1,347 1,094 640 967 615 1,044 1,273 1,076 678 661 735 829 1973 Jaa, Fab. March April May Juua July Auf. Sapt. Oct Nov. Dae. 12,163 12,407 12,632 12,069 11.539 10,992 10,906 10,024 9,340 9,313 9,489 9,497 679 819 999 1,099 1,091 1.064 1,076 973 671 768 735 703 903 786 669 592 566 379 592 642 691 741 966 1,192 326 868 1.323 1,216 1,108 1,001 1,162 1.324 1,465 1449 1,412 1,376 1366 1497 216 Table 12 (Continued) A B C 1974 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. O ct Nov. Dec. 10,106 10,955 11,704 11,724 11,743 11,763 11,284 10,804 10,325 10,576 10,826 11,077 669 862 1,055 1348 1,171 1,093 1,016 938 861 783 722 661 1,034 996 958 1975 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. O ct Nov. Deb 11,398 11,720 12,041 11,250 10,458 9,667 10,765 11362 12,960 14,048 15,136 16325 599 724 849 974 864 755 645 657 670 682 689 697 921 675 429 183 703 1,223 1,743 1,752 1,761 1,770 1,746 1,722 1976 J*®* Feb. March April May June luly Aug. S ap t Oct. Nov. Dec. 17,219 18,213 19,207 18^39 18,511 18,164 17,708 17,252 16,795 16,557 16,319 16,080 7 04 937 1,698 i , |7 0 1,403 1,470 1,538 1,605 1,370 1,056 1,063 1,070 1,077 1977 Jan. Feb. March 16,789 17,498 18,207 1,418 1,368 1318 1,268 1,024 780 537 702 868 14S4 217 General Aiaiatance Eit inflated Levela and Rataa Yew Month A Monthly Caaeload B No. Employable 1969 Ian. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 24.957 24.182 23,406 22,631 22,623 22,618 22,612 23,326 24,041 24,735 9,983 9,673 9,362 9,052 9,050 9,047 9,045 9,330 9,616 9,902 1970 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. S ept Oct. Nov. Dae. 26,672 28,389 30,306 31,038 31,369 32,101 33,868 33,636 37,903 39,942 42,480 43,019 10,669 11,436 12,413 12,628 12,840 13,547 14,234 14,961 15,977 16,692 18,008 1971 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. O ct Nov. Dec. 46,229 47*438 48,648 47,969 47,290 46,611 43,228 43343 42,462 43,343 44,629 43,712 18,492 18,973 19,459 19,188 18,916 18,644 18391 17.338 17,057 17*418 17,832 18383 1972 Jan. Flab. March April May Juha July Aug. S ep t O ct Nov. Dec. 43369 43,423 45 3 8 2 44356 43*429 43,503 43,093 43,686 44378 44,711 43,143 43376 18,228 18,170 18,113 17,742 17372 17,001 17338 17,474 17,711 17,884 18,057 18,230 12,202 D Employable Rate Leaving E Total Rate Entering F Emplo; Rate E 3,425 3,680 3,935 4,190 4,097 4,004 3,911 3,665 3,419 3,173 4,173 5,176 1,298 1,472 1,574 1,676 1,639 1,602 1,364 1,466 1368 1,269 1,670 2,070 3,720 3,618 .3,317 3,415 3.378 3,742 3,903 3,849 3,893 3,887 5,290 6,693 1,488 1,447 1,407 1,366 1*431 1,497 1,562 1,540 1,557 1,555 2,116 2,677 6,178 6,472 6,766 7,060 7,144 7,227 7311 7,823 8,339 >8,833 8,832 2,471 2,389 2,706 2324 2,838 2,891 2,924 3,130 3336 3,541 3,333 3,342 8,093 7,927 7,760 7,592 8,087 8,583 9,078 9,850 10,621 11,392 10,928 10,463 3,238 3,171 3,104 3,037 3,235 3,433 3,631 3,940 4,248 4,337 4,371 4,185 3,316 4,980 4,644 5309 4316 4324 4332 3,980 3(628 3377 3381 3,286 9,999 10,780 11,561 12,343 11,377 10,412 9,446 4,389 9,332 9,273 9,077 8,879 4,000 4,312 4,624 4,937 4,531 4,165 3,778 3,756 3,733 3,710 3,631 3,332 3.290 3,289 3,288 3,287 3,131 3,016 8,681 8,218 7,754 7,290 7,438 7,625 1,792 7,360 7,328 7,093 7,060 7,023 3,472 3,287 3,102 2,916 2,983 3,030 3,117 3,024 2,931 2,838 2,824 2,810 C Total Rate Leaving 8310 8,789 10300 11,611 13,022 12391 11,360 10,829 9,930 93 7 1 8,192 8303 8314 8,225 8322 8,219 8317 7,878 7,340 7,201 7,022 6342 6,663 6,827 6,991 2380 2,809 2,737 2,663 2,731 2,796 218 Table 13 (Continued) 1973 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 45,410 45,245 45,079 43,632 42,164 40,737 40,099 39,460 38,822 38,981 39,140 39,299 18,164 18,098 18,032 17,453 16,879 16,295 16,040 15,784 15,529 15,592 15,656 15,720 1974 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 41,089 42,879 44,669 44,963 45 4 5 8 45,552 45,990 46,427 46,865 48,390 49,914 51,439 16,436 17,152 17,868 17,985 18,103 18421 18496 18,571 18,746 19,356 19,966 20,576 S ep t O ct Nov. Dec. 53,813 56,188 58,562 58,553 58443 58,534 59,004 59,475 59,945 61445 61,551 63,241 1976 Jan. F eb March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 63,268 64,015 64,402 63,054 61,706 60,357 59,122 57487 56,651 55,716 54,781 53445 1975 Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. 3,862 2,820 2,778 2,736 2,656 2,578 2,498 2,492 2,485 2,478 2,472 2,466 6,989 6,457 5,924 5,392 5,464 5,536 5,608 5,856 6,105 6,353 6,882 7,412 2,796 2,583 2,370 2,157 2,186 2,214 2,243 2,342 2.442 2,541 2,753 2,965 6,151 5,954 5,756 5,559 5,802 6,045 6,287 6,075 5,863 5,651 6,562 7,493 2/460 2402 2424 2421 2,418 2,515 2,430 2,345 2460 2,625 2,997 7,941 7,245 6449 5,854 6,144 6,435 6,725 6,875 7,025 7,176 8,380 9,584 3,176 2498 2,620 2,342 2,458 2,574 2,690 2,750 2.810 2470 3,352 3,834 21,525 22,475 23,425 23,421 23,417 23,414 23402 23,790 23,978 24,538 24,620 25,296 8414 8,336 8,259 8,181 8,150 8,119 8,088 7,654 7,270 6,786 7,516 8446 3,366 3434 3404 3,272 3,260 3448 3435 3,062 2,888 2,714 3,006 3,298 10,788 9,916 9,044 8,172 8,300 8,429 8,558 8,824 9,090 9,355 9,358 9,361 4,315 3,966 3.618 3,269 3.330 3,372 3.423 3430 3,636 3.742 3.743 3.744 25,307 25,606 25,761 25422 24,682 24,143 23,649 23,155 22,660 8,977 8,942 8,907 8,872 8,559 8,246 7,933 3,591 3,577 3,563 3449 3,424 3,298 3,173 9,364 8,751 8,138 7,524 7,280 7,036 6,792 3,746 3,500 3,255 3,010 2,912 2,814 2,717 22486 21,912 21,538 7,155 7,050 6,944 6,839 6,641 6,444 6,246 6,229 6,212 6,194 6,180 6,165 2482 APPENDIX G MODEL DIAGRAM THREE-TIER UI SYSTEM 219 Eft T 3 220 I APPENDIX H THREE-TIER MODEL PARAMETERS 221 222 THREE-TIER MODEL PARAMETERS tt25B = .925 - SUR tt25B = 1.0- ti26A = 1.55 - 11.11 x SUR tt26B = 1.0 = tt26A tt27A = 1.0- tt27B tt27B = .268 + 2.8 x SUR tt27C = .08 tt28A = 1.77 - 11.11 x SUR tt28B = 1.0 - tt28A tt2 9 A = 1.0 - tt29B tt29B = .257 + 3.48 x SUR tt29C = .05 tt25A SUR = Michigan unemployment r a t e ( f i v e month smoothing) DELAY PARAMETERS MEAN TIME (MONTHS) ORDER TIER 1 (A) 1.3 3 TIER 1 (B) 1.3 3 TIER 2 (A) 1.1 3 TIER 2 (B) 1. 6 3 TIER 3 (A) 1.3 3 TIER 3 (B) 1.3 3 TIER APPENDIX I THREE-TIER FORTRAN PROGRAM LISTING 223 224 1= o j . Of . PA I T - P P f L ( I M P i i T , 0 ‘l T P U T» T A O E 1 , r APE 2» TAPE ° 9 , T A P P 5 , T A P £ 1 9 +« 2= :jflM0V < K , T , D ' , e U I , ° T i f i , T i A P , PT1 = , T iL V P , T13P., T i f y o , T1FEXR, 3= w= 2 T l M F " , r l , r * ? A , t j c p , A T 2 3 , T 2L V R . t BT 7 , T 2 B R , 7 2 E X = , Rs 7 r ’ * IE r, T 7 , * 7 1 1 , T 3 i p . , 6 T 7 R , T3LV®, ? 3 T 3 , T 3 B P , TTRVP, t i m e t , T 3 , 6= <*’• ! , h i l v ® , t i : : r = , t i c o s t , T 2 C o s t , t s c o s t , u i c o s t , 7= ♦ V I ” XT.T1EXT3 ,T J = X T .P T 2 E X T ,T 2 E X t P , t ? ext 6= D I M E - J S I C M P U T 1 ( 1 5 6 ) , S U ° l ( i f 6 > , T I ( M l ( 1 5 6 ) . T 1 E X T H 7) , T 2 E X T l ( 1 5 ) Q= DIM -nSICN T 1 A 1 1 3 ), T 1 B 1 I 3 ) , T 2 A 1 1 3 ), T2B1<3>, T 3 A 1 ( 3 ) , T 3 9 H 3 ) in= I I’ EGEP P 3 0 r - P A f ' « 1 5 6 ) AiWTUP 10 il = l- = DO a < = 1 , 7 15=9 7 i :xT K K > = o,n lt- = DO 11 < = 1 , 1 5 17=11 72EX71( 0 = 0 .0 1 ?= RIMIMP 5 1 * . ?d= ’ ■WI9C 2 15 = RE'iTvjn 1 ?0 = DO 1 1 = 1 , 1 5 6 21 = 1 T I '• -1 ( I ) = FLQAT ( I ) 2 2 = C P £ AD I * - P U T OATA 2 3= DO 6 < = 1 , 1 5 6 ?L = 6 P f.:0 = 4 'M O = l 2 7= ? £ i C ( l , 6 0 0 ) (9 'J IK J) , J = l , ? 2 ) 2 6 =6 0 n POr « A T ( 6 F 1 0 . 0 ) RiA 7 ( 1 , 6 9 0 ) * v i ; i ( j ) , J - 9 3 , l r o i 29 = DO o < = 1 , 1 * 6 29.1= RUIl ( 0 = 50000, 2 9 . 2=* 3 0= R £ i K l , 6 0 0 ) (3,I31 ( J ) , J = 1 , 9 2 ) R Z A 0 ( l , 6 o n ) ( S U P K J) , J = 9 3 , 1 5 6 ) 31= 71.1= DO 6 1 9 J K = l , 1 5 b D i'nG -’ A M J X I a U 31.2= 3 1 . 3= ' - . t o ( i n , ( 2 5 ) ; VAL 31.-= «19 3 * ' » l ( J < ) = 3 VAl 31.5=125 F f l = f« 4 T < F t n , f l ) 32=C ! n I t : A L I 7 E TIM £ v a r i a b l e s 33-5 7 = 9.0 3<-= DT = n , ? 35” 1 07=1 36 = DE'_P=1.3 37- =C S E T ' t L i f i D ’LAV T I M E S 3d= D ~ L n A = l,3 39= D t.'L T l3*i,3 •.0= D£LT?A=1.1 *• 1= . D£LT? ? = 1 .6 L2= J£L T 3A = 1.3 t3= 011.773=1,3 9*-= C S £ T ORDER CF OELAYS UJ>= te= i=l ,n -P 2 -s 9 63= 0 2 -a' = , 1 5 6** = C 5 = T I N I T I A L V A L U E O P P.UI 6?= « ' J l = M * L I < K I I l , TI M s l ( 7 , l 5 6 > 6 6 =c i n i t i a l i z e t u p i v a r i a b l e s 67= P T l i = S»III 60 = 69* 70= 71= 72= 73= 7-= 75= 76= 77= 76= 79= 00 = DO in I 7=1 1 XT1A T ltl(I7 )= 9 T 1 A TlA = = TiA KKT1A > = 7 1 3 = P 2 5 t ? ‘ T l au T 1 L V = = = 2 5 A »T1A3 DO 1 - 1 7 = 1 , C I O 15 T i ? 1 1 1 7 ) s ^ T i i T H P = T l31 t « ; n » T I L <= = =26*3 * T 1 9 9 RTI-:*TrTl!:*XTJ=Tl£XT = 0 ,f| T 1 - - : x p . = p ?*j S-*T1 5 = > T l E X T ® T ir'IT s-T lA -T if/^ .-T ia s T l s T i A K D ^ n j i . T l A ^ ’ i a i ( 1 ’) * 0 E L T 1 B r i=c i n i t i a l i z e t i " p ? variables 02= *T?A = T 1P V » / ( 1 , 0 - P 2 7 C I 03= DO 2 0 : Z = 1, * T 2 A 8 n= 2 0 T2A 1 ( I Z ) = R T ? A 8F= T 2 J ® a T ’ J l ( K ’ ? AI Bf- = RT =a = d 7 7 9 - T 67= T 2 L y / T = a 2 - » A * T 2 ait 86= t F . T Z s P Z Z C ^ T ’ AP 89= DO 2 5 : Z = 1 , < T 2 B 90= 2 5 T 2 3 1 C I Z ) = » ’ 29 91= T 23 P=T i>31 { < t ? p | 92= r z z x ^ s o ? ? ^ '? ^ 93= 5 ,!, 2 P X T = 'r 2 “ X " ;’ = T ? !i X T = 0 . n 9t s T2P.*X==P2} A*T?-?RfT2IXTP 95= T?Nr T==T?A-T?LV9-T239 96= T2 = t ? A i m *0uLT2A«'7291 (1)*D E LT 2Q «7 = C I M t I A l I 7E T i v p * v > 9 1 A7LES 9»>= « T 1 A = T 2 £ X P / ( 1 , f » P 2 a C) 99= 100= 101= 107= 107= lO ^a 105= 10* = !»)•»= 10 0= 109= 111= 111=C 112= 117= 11== 115=C 11*= 11’ = 110=C 10 0 0 30 1 7 = 1 » XT3A 30 T 3 A l ( I Z » = A - 3 A T3A= = T3A1 KT7AJ RT3a = P20T3EXP. P P I M T I N I ’ I A L I Z e O O U T F U T DATA < =0 CALL A L F R 5 D PRINT I N I T I A L I Z E D COS T OATA O *. in u -j a vO CM CM «i 14 <1 It* ui ft a > rr *l •* oK) W cL»# fu M - !•■ b- 1* 1- K » - K X ^ • •< *• •*!kJ 4 1r-t in ►» •#k- cr K- < f t IV K* V) A tr. < I- •£ CMh #- 2 *•4O X •i> K • > in •4 rn «4 h h X - I - I Ui uj 1n > rr in I— H I*- n x Ui U J C ' * H ►o r A C . r-« b~ «4 X h «4 u; ►K M (1. • in « H ► H • f4 4 • Kl « M x in UI ^ V) jj J V> UI CL ~ ft if* r« » i- e u, o r a: D (A u T. H 0l V* UI ft! < O' U M < a: H X • K H r* ft Ul • ft in Ul O' rf r r n: •* T *• I •H C* M »IT «>i «i h- it ft •j ZJ Z> X H £ =2 h * *- M U . h H - J HI ft «D If* O O ft f t C* • i - «r O H Ir l *• > 0 _| cr «x t- nr 1 uw> in in b* it. _j CT< • «z a er 4 4 in *■4 *r* CO «t K *4 • < er. tr V* •> o *j» 0. < N Pftftf • l- V UM CO< •H Ql » oo vO X W Uf •*4 IT** • * no nai ear r* m or m t4 b1 n \p I ill f t' 4 - or •H O X 4 IU -* r cftj ma «e** ah O h H c i | j n J *1 II 7' « «l • f t • c o • ftf • O K T CVf ft ft e w it r> n ii ^ f t t - * Ui h O UI tii K C* -*< i n o t * o l -o M*ft■- C . •> «n *'■ O 1 *r> •I *4 • • u *-* • H • ft P II II c <* ♦ M h Z II ll II O Q a. q c K O M O 1** lo in r j u i ** O I— *1 U *4 II li II (I l| li it it n II II ii '• i i if a * f t f t ' X X C X X H K I J ti ii ii n a u: x «J 2 (V V 2 +* b- ♦ *- K J J K K j j j -J -J W» - Q K 4 IT' •J a rc • I (J* 4 17 a* <1 o i * « i r > > ft »J I*' K ll Ul * - ! , * _ tv <* ft. ^ X O III 4 I • II V 1. 1- «1 II J J 4 CMW «** M * , ^ r n I J J J 4 4 in in ui if if. in u* u*. in u* -x* •L»tf ft •L O *u ft N NNN K KN K ^4 «4 r< H v* f* f4 *4 *4 K f4 r l f4 H «« H r l M *4 r4 «* v* r4 ?4 9* H H r4 r4 r l H r*4 r l r4 *4 H r4 r4 *4 r4 «4 v4 227 1*0 = 101 * l F ’ a.*! 10 3 = 10*-=** ? 1 •*? = ia*=c 14’ = n * = 100 = 1*3 0 a 191 = 10’ = ’, T ? r X T = 0 § 0GO TO *»2 T 2 F E X J.= T 2 s X T B P. T ’ £ YT = P ? « S * ’ 2 3 R C ' V t ; * his T?-'s t calculate =p -2 a- ; 2 L V » . - * 2 8 S * 3 algebraic v a pia b les £->T3sP290-T3A « RT 3A = “ PT 3 »T ’ * X= <->.7 3p = P 2 9 ' 1 « T 3 A R T 3 L V » = P ? O A * T 3 A’ . T 3 ,'YF = T 3 P P T 3 M ’ T = 9 T 3 A " T 3 L |/ p.“ T 3 QF CAL CUL AT E TOTAL H I VA c TABLES UI=T1♦T2+T3 1 I I L i/ P = T 1 L ‘/ j » T ? L V P * ’’ 3 L VR ur. *YP = T l = F Y 0 « - T 2 F E X r > T 3 t X P t ic 19T=c IQus 19= = 1 ?* = 1 1" = i o i c o n t i n u e 1 o * = c P R I N T o u t p u t OATA 3V m o n t h 100 = call ALFP.t? 2 t l ’ =C P R I N T COS T 1ATA 20 3 = •Is 1 T ~ ( 5 » 9 9 7 ) T t * T 2 * ? 3 ?0..=«9’ FORMAT<1 F 1 0 . 2) 21’ = CALL C O S T A < X , T 1 , T 2 , T 3 » 21J= 2 0 0 CONTINUE 20*.5 = t - . - HI N C ? 200= CALL T T Y P L T » 3 , F M L L l / 5 L » -;*n 211 = S U B R O U T I N E ALFRED 21’= 213= CO-HO.' I « « T « 0 T » * J I , R T l A , T l A P . , R T 1 9 , T l L V e t T 1 0 ® , T 1 2 X P , T l F E X P , 21** = 1 7 1 Nr T » T i , RT=A , 7 ’ A ** »R.T?'1 *T 2 L ' / F , F . ; ’ ? , T 2 B P . , T 2 E X 9 t T 2 F F X R , 21= = 2 T 2 N P T ,T 2 t P T 3 A ,T 3 A = ,P T 3 9 ,T 3 L '/P t ERT3,T3BP.,T3EX P, T3NET, 21* = 3 T 3 » U I »U IL Af MI EXP. » T 1 C 0 S T , T 2 C 0 S T * T 3 C 0 S T t U I C O S T * 21" = « - R ? l r Y T f ’ l c YT® » T l E X T f r T2 EXTt T2 L' XTp »T2EXT 2 1 * = C P R I N T OUTP UT pATA 21° = RE T U RN 22*1= P ’ I NT 1 0 0 0 . X t i - U I t P T I A . T I A F . j T l L N P 221 = PRINT 1 0 0 1 tT lP R .T lIX R ,7 1 F E X ° * T 1 N £ T » T 1 222 = P ’ I MT 1 0 0 2 . P T ? A , T ? A P . , P . T 2 B , T 2 L V R , £ P T 2 P® I NT 1 1 0 3 , 7 2 B P , T 2 £ X P » 7 2 F F X P . » T 2 N £ T , T 2 229 = P R I N T 1 1 0»» , P T3 A , T 3 AP. , » T 3 3 , T 3 L tfP * £ P T 3 22**= P R I N T 10 ( 1 ? , 7 3 E R , r 3 E X P , T 3 N E T , T 3 22 = = P R I N T 1 0 0 * , U I , U I l V P . , U l “ XF. 22* = 2’ ’ = P 5 1NT 1 0 0 T , 3 * 1 " X T , T l C X T ? t T l " X T 7 2 « - P.-.IMT t 1 0 1 , R T ? r x T , ’ 2SXTP , T2 EXT 2 2 a =C COMMENT CAPO 2 3*)=" 1 0 0 0 FO- MA T ( I M P , = H TIME , 1 3 , 2 X , 3 H R U I , M X , F 1 0 . 0 » * . X , A H R T 1 A , 231 = t 7 X , R 1 1 . C, i. » , * . h T 1 A R , 7 X , F 1 0 . 0 , 4 X , * + H ' T 1 9 . 7 X * F 1 0 . 0 ♦ 9X, 23’ = * 5 ‘* T I L ’/ p , 6 X , F I C . O ) 2 3 3 = 1 0 0 1 FORMAT( l l Y. UMT1AF , 7 X , F 1 0 . 0 , * t X , 5 H T l E X R t B X , F 1 0 . H , * . X , 6 H T 1 F E X F 23'* = ♦ • p X .F n , 0,**X »?H TlN rT ,6X ,F10.0,*tX ,2 H T 1 ,9 X tF 1 0 .0 ) 2 3 ? = 1 0 0 2 F 0 * M A ” { 1 1 X , - * H P T 3 A , 7 x , F H . 0 , <* y , *+ H’ 2 A P . , 7 X , F 1 0 , 0 , * * X , * . H P T 2 P , 23* = T " X , F 1 0 , 0 , < * X , (' H " 2 L V P , 6 X f F 1 0 . 9 f * . X f *»H£*RT?, ’ Xt F 1 0 • 01 2 3 ’ = 1 0 0 3 F 0 c M A r ( l l X f ».HT’ a R , ’ X , F i n , 0 f *»Xf 5 H T 2 - X r , < j X , F 1 0 . 0 , ‘»X1 6 H T 2 F E X f 23* = ♦ ? X , F l l , 0 , * * X , 5 H T 2 N - T , f . y , F i o t O , * . X , 2 H T 2 , 9 X , F 1 0 , 01 2 3 9 = 1 0 01* F I - M A T ( 1 1 X , « H P T 3 A , 7 X , F 1 0 * 0 t*»X, 9 H T 3 A 9 , 7 X » F 1 0 « 0 , 9 X , * * H P T 3 B , 2*.n= , * 7 X , F 1 0 , 0 , 4 * y , 5 H T 3 L V R , G X , F 1 0 . 0 , h X , * * H £ R T 3 » 7 X » F 1 0 . 01 2 % ! = 1 0 1 ? F 0 * n a T ( H X , *. MT 3 3 F , - ’ X , F 1 0 . 0 , 9 X , 5 r t T . 3 £ X 9 , 6 X f F 1 0 . 0 . ■ * X , 5 H T 3 N E T , 24.’ = ♦■6X,Fin. O t**y,2H T3,9X »F10.(l) 2 * . 3 = 1 0 0 5 F O P . M A T I l l X t 2 H U : , 9 X , F 1 0 . 0 , **X, 5 H U I H / P . . 6 X , F 1 0 . 0 . *»X, 2M* = «-SH UIEXR,oX ,Fin.O» II CM X t0 U\ o l/t X II o 3 o * a *- » X x Id CM »X T \T lO r r ^ X X \ 4 4 N ► *** ► \ o e e a • O O o O Ui 2 UI U* *4 f— CO CM CM • • • H H H H U .U .U .U r r » •» X >* X X Ui U> » » • » \L *£» X U« r4 U 3 *i> 1 * X Ui r4 IX If r X 4 X 111 M In T «o * X r4 o H O' X 3 O II 40 X 3 O II 40 IT* *4 a h X *tl CM I* X IT » V 4 < CM 3 O UI K X U* O • K« on tO U VI *4 ui r nr 3 o o «d O a* _i ♦ *0 in c* — *• Ll a IO r 4 CO • ii • % /% U ia u i x ll 3 r t j o x -* CM Z h II — » *T» U> H M U* h « y W < u VI C O h n M W- a u 4 0 C/| u . o n n • - PC CO C‘ ^ uU I •* rnJ Q. — UI 10 u r z u* o cm H 1 X H 2O O r II i * X o T r4 o o t \ J X 0 II X II1 R Z rl T P || II II 2. 3 CM K 3"> ci o r x r O 3 IX II t j Ui CM UI C M -H CMW *4 ii - j r* n n a p»* ii ►CM K 3 • «/> • ? f filH li ii III li 3 (/> Cl O Ld O O H J *X J i >3 in IO H N I rl rl II II II II II ii»a. U ^ IJ» a Z «: I 3 X r i r 3 3 3 . 0 0 3 33 o r • F .. *I.' «£ k «r 0 . • r « r c C* t ‘ C C 1- 1 r z X o t r II d l i U 111 til I » U l« il r4 • » • • fJO Q • 1 3 X - J tfk O 3 o ui to O 111 u N 2 M3 X » O' * o * ••> CM 3 a 4 > O' m • O' *■ o u w •X Cl • >c C C C» L C C *«!*'• u> '<* Ml id ♦ • • • * • T 3 X T IT 1—1- 1— 27* 4 X 2 c o c o c o x ?. r >• 2. X I U U L li- U. li. I HMHI H M H ui X I) t— it e O rH i n h o •I H II II II II II II II II « • ii ii it « it ii ii u ii ll II II It K ll H II u .u ^ 9 ty e* *■ fv K 4 4 4 I f ‘I f*• O c f' K ll X r* t a C M j J 4 j j ir» u . u i i n If* U- in tr\ u. ut u\ «a -ou *4> •4*Ap o *0 -i>i s . r* CM CM CM (W CM (U CM CM (M CM CM tMCjCMCMCMCMIMfOCMrj CM CM CMCMCMcm r u fsj 3 O u J U‘ I fo II T -> CO 3 Ul-C •O » « C* i c. • • b- -J » i—hi H '*J * . UJ . i ii r .i o IO • I *i • W l o o UI > Z H IW t f f » N I O h o 4«. <1 • %3 PT «r o 3 O ’w (j > « T C Z t 1 J J x ► t r cv e o . 1 V I 0 -4 — •c. H in • • • * ' 1 2 ♦ 1 iH C l i i > u 4 M* I 1 Cl U* *- • •**0 H CMtr. * x c» n r u« c- — j ► • • • • C 3 T*I- I "4 UI lit UJ V II CMX • ~ «i ; - J I ? c tr «r» n 1 V *• x i »CO • • • n II II II II II 11 ii • • • r *1 4 U. u n •» o « « r «n 1% . N SM * CMCMcmimcmcmcmcmcmcmcm Ih t * • • in in 0 j C4O i.m V) e o CM •X \0 « X 4 * CO o o x M « X o X M 4r.ff» <> ♦ rl • 4 3 MO 01 Q- X I— iO a X *4 a I- vl • • 5 X Id A *T M t'i r e 4 • *B *4 9 • h o «r ii K -4 - 4 0 * wO K CM• 0 to ► “ U O U 'K •r t, e* t r «T r- -* r- x M V 11 > r 3 H II n. it ib O UI r4 ►O II n v*i «» •—— IT. t ) > It ▼ u •> 3c H » H rH II » • X r l n 44 ^ C T >- C r4 <4 II M H I ^ - ►• »-* y y o U* H X I m til H z* * w H W v ^ •2 X 0 * 0. 3 X 3 1 c x r* QQO 1 eK ► t > I C !d o o to i n v r n < o O H H III e II IA ■C ll O r - O c ^ - o r X «4 *• ♦* K M r 4 ^ K O O v r r X H o rv r a C II O -I O 3 O W r u. »- w »- a b- O O y o 3 O O Q z o *-i tf tr- O' c* o* O' O' o o CVj Oj CMCMCMCMCMCUCU MCMlMCMMCMMmm a4 • •2 * 4* 4 or 229 30?= 30 3= 304 = 30"= 3 1 " C I'M=™i-*l ►•TICOSTII- m l C ' i ' , ? a ,' U * i ? + ' T ,» n c 5 T I I - J + 1 > C fi3= :u - i3 * T 3 C 0 S T tI - J ? ll i?n = 3 0 T = C P R I con * : mi = I V ? = ( (1 * 1 l/12> »1969 N T Y ? A J L .3 COS T 3 0 " = 2 1 0 C J N T I M J " 31 n= 311= 3i?= -n 3 l 3 =<.a 31*-= on u a J = l , 156 W ^IT E ( " , 4 4 > T i C O S T ( J ) , T 2 C O S T ( J ) , 7 3COST( J ) 3 1 " = c ’lD continue F ORMAT I 3 F 1 0 , f 1 ) J . l ’ tis*! 31"= S H - . ^ O U T I n i P I L O T I r ! N f . , r . O U T R , C P O U T ? , 0 £ L t I O T t n T t K) 3 1 7 = C 3 H 3 I S A FQPCYN S U B R O U T I N E F O R S I M U L A T I N G D I S T R I B U T E D T I M " D, L AYS * 3 1 a =C " 0 s. A O I S O P . I P T t .v i 5t-rj F O K J Y N , AN I N D U S T R I A L OYHAMI CS S*IMULATO>' " A G E 31-3 = 0 6 TO - 4 3Y M. L L E WE L L Y N , P F O F t ’ S S OR OF I N D U S T R I A L E N G I N E E R I N G , 3 2 n = 0 NORTH CAROL I r U STATE U N I V E R S I T Y . PRI V AT EL Y P R I N T E D 3Y TYPING S E R V I C E , 3 2 1 =C R A L E I G H , NORTH C A R O L I N A , 1 9 6 5 . O I H - N S I C N 3?~’ = co i : = i ,< Aj C - C ^ O L T R f I » 32" = 32"= C lOUTr ( I ) s AeC*-(.RlN-A6C J / O E L I 330=1 RIN=A0C 3 31=2 R0UTR=RCUT=*C5OUTF 3 0 RETURN 3 37 = 333 = £N(1 F U N C T I O N T A 9 L K V A L , A F G , DUMMY, K) 33- = 3 3 " =C Y h I S I S A F C j O»N TA3 l c L O O K - U P F U N C T I O N FOR I N T E R P O L A T I N G VALUES TN A 3 3 * = C TA3LEO S E 3 r*S CF N U H q ; ? S 9 F O P A D E S C R I P T I O N S E E F O a 1 Y N - AN I l ' O U S T P I A L 3 3 ^ = 0 0YM4 1 I C S 3 l H t i v _ A T 0 P , PAGE 4 - 2 2 BY ROBERT W* L L E W E L L Y N , P R O F f ' S C P OF 3 3 " =C I N D U S T R I A L L N G I N E r R I N G , NORTH C AR O L I N A S T A T E U N I V E R S I T Y , PRIVATELY 3 3 " = C P P I N T T O -3Y - Y O I N G S E R V I C E , R A L E I G H , NORTH C A R O L I N A , 1 9 6 5 , 349= r » I H " N S I C N Y4L , ARG j« .? s ,n 3 m 3= 344= 3-"= 34"= 3-3=1 3-"= 3 -) * ( VAL ( I I - VAL < 1 - 1 J ) / C A F G ( I ) - A R G ( 1 - 1 1 1 * * VAL ( 1 - 1 I P.E'IIPN CONTI"US R- JTUPt l r;jn SUBROUT INE TTYPLT(UX,NAME> D I M E N S I O N K < 6 0 > , V A L K 1 5 6 J , VAL2 ( 1 5 6 ) , V A L 3 < 1 5 6 » , T < 1 5 6 ) B IG = n,n 5 MALL= 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 On 1 0 0 < = 1 , 1 5 6 R _ - A 0 < " , ? 0 0 ) V A L 1 ( K » , VA L ? < K > , V AL 3 < < ) ’ FORMA T l . l F l O . O ) T tK) = VA LlIKU VAL21K)*VA L31K > RF W I NG ? 00 101 1=1,156 R E A 0(?,990)V A L 1(J»,V A L 2C J),V A L 3(J) CONTINUE DO 5 0 K = 1 , 1 5 6 VAL3CK)=VAL2 i i =?,k 230 3 tc = 3 n —s 36"’ = 3t*=?o 36*.1 = 363s 37* = 371 = 37?= 373= 3 74* = 9 1 0 37c= 37* = 3 7' ’ = 3?* = 3 7 == 3 i *= 331 = 33? = 33 3 = 3®!* = 3 3* = 33*= 337* 33* = 333 = 3** = 391 = 33? = 393= 3 9'* = 3=* = 395=1211 397 = 39*=110 3 9 0 - 97(1 4.0" = <*01=930 4.(1 ? = <• 0 3 = 7 0 0 t*0/* = 4.05 = <*0*= <*07 = 4*0* = <*0C = 7 2 0 4*10 = u ll = 4*1 7 = 4.13 = 4*14* = 4 * 1*3 4.1*=t<*? 4*17 = 4*1**710 4* 1=» =69( 1 <* 2 0 = 4.21* 4.22 = *♦2 3 = 4.29= O I . - . s A - A K l ( . ? I G , 7 A L 1 ( K ) , VAL2 < < > , V a L 3 l K ) , T » K > > I F d A L M K l . 6 O . n , 0 . O P . 7 A L 2 4 K » . C Q . O I G O TO 5 0 S I A L L = A -IN I< S N 4 L L .V A L 1 < « > • UAL2( K ) , YAL3( K ) > c 3 ‘IT : ’Ml 5 ■»iG=a:G» ? n n % J I /=< ? I 0 - ? ( O L L > / 5 9 . 9 9 9 D I - / 1 5 = D I Y * l 5 ‘ S'1ALL D I 7 3 0 = 3 ! / •3<1.C- 1ALL J I 7 u 5 = 0 ! 7 • - 5 + SNALL P > P jt n 0 , S - A L L , 0 1 7 1 5 , 0 1 7 3 0 , 0 1 Y < * 5 , P I G F O ^ - A M l H l / . S d A , ? * ^ ) /**X » * 4 ( 1 H * , 1 i. ( 1 H “ ) 3 0 110 K = 1*156 ? n 120 J = 1 , 6 0 :PL Tl=IPL T?=IfL T 3=:PL T 9=0 T 0 ? = T <<> I X ( J ) = 1H J 1= J - 1 I F ( YA L l (K 1 . G E » ( 0 I V ® J J ) ‘ S M A L L . A N 0 . V A L 1 ( K ) . L T . *IPLT1=1 I - (VAL2(K> . G ‘ . < r i7-*JJ>4-SMALL. A M 0 .7 A L 2 ( K ) . L T . *-IPLT2 =l I F ( 7 A L 3 ( < ) . G” • ( P I V * J J ) ‘ S M A L L . A N O . Y A L 3 ( K ) , L T . 4-I?LT3=l I F (TOT.GS. ( 0 I 7 - J J 1 ‘ S M A L L .A N J ,T O T .L T .0 IV * (J J ‘ 4 - I f’ L T L = l IF (J.tri,l9 ,o o ,j,t.O ,3 (i.u -.j« (;ti.u p » IX lJ> = ln . I S l l - = : ? L T l 4 - r - 7 L" 2 f I P L T 3 # - : P L T t t I F ( T P L T 1 , ; ( 1 ,1 > IX ( )! = i m i f ( i P u t 2 , £ o . i j i x < .11 = i h 2 IF 4 IP u T 3 ,E O ,li:x < J)= lri3 I F < IP L T '* ,p m ,1 )IX< J ) = 1 H 9 I F IMT 7 0 0 ,4JAM= F 0 ‘7 H A T ( i * 4 i , ? 5 X , A 5 , * OF U I . 9Y C Y S ^ - h * 4-//1H i * 5 (1M -I//21X ,*CU P,F.EN T * . * 7HP£? T I£ ® V * QUAP.TEP*,11X ,*SYSTEM » ‘ 5* .*SY ST£m *,1 O X ,*D IFFE P.tN C E*//iH , 6 5 ( 1 H -)) 0 0 64*n * 4 = 1 3 7 0 , 1 0 7 7 P'-’ I N T 7 ’ 0 F 1P.MA * 4 / 1 0 0 6 9 0 *4>4=1 ,(* C J-IS = CUMT = CU- *C=0, 00 6-5 L S I ,.3 N= ( ( M - 1 9 7 o ) * 1 2 ) ‘ < H M - 1 ) * 3 ‘ L CU-C= : iJ -C * < /ALlCM) ‘ (/AL2/HX C H - D = : t ) MC - F U' 4 T P 2 I M T 7 1 0 , m . M M. CU MC . C U M T . CU M O FO rM A7(71 0 |1 H . ,I1 ,« ? X ,3 ( F 1 2 .0 ) ) CONTINU£ P . " r 'JF*4 E»n S ' J O P O U T I M E OOT o ; l < Y I N , V O U T , V I N T , N » S T O R E ) 0 I-K N S IC 6 OINT(I) Y0UT=ST0P.£ = Y I N T ( 1 ) D I V ‘ < ) J ‘ 1 1 4-S m . 0 I V ‘ » f s ^ t nt V 4LS1.0 PJTIMN u3'T= -VO U3«= 4.3* = StH 30U T;M s OI -I ENj ICN »C1) W I N , V 0U T,Pf D£L, D £LP,0T,K ) uns F<=r LC£T <«• kbi = A= 17 •*F »«r ) = i^A *(rfIN -O F .‘ C l.-O cL D )) V I N= D 3 7 0 UT= 3 < K ) P.iTUPN tND ui.bs 10 1 : = i ,« BIBLIOGRAPHY IS 232 BIBLIOGRAPHY A l f e l d , Louis Edward and Alan K. Graham. I n t r o d u c t i o n t o Urban Dynamics. Cambridge, Massachusetts!! Wr ight-Alien P r e s s , I n c . , 1976. B l a u s t e i n , Saul J . 23-25. "Making UI B e t t e r . " Manpower VII (Auqust 1975), ___________ . A New Job S e c u r i t y System f o r Michigan. Kalamazoo, Michigan: The W.E. Upjohn I n s t i t u t e f o r Employment Research, June 15, 1977 ( d r a f t cop y). ___________. A New Job S e c u r i t y System f o r Michigan. 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