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ANN A R B O R , Ml 4 8 1 0 6 18 B E D F O R D ROW, L O N D O N W C1R 4 E J , E N G L A N D 8106433 REPP, SUSAN ELAINE CLARKSON FACTORS WHICH DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN SUCCESSFUL AND DISMISSED STUDENTS ON ACADEMIC PROBATION AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY Michigan State University University Microfilms International PH.D. 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Aibor, MI 48106 1980 PLEASE NOTE: Contains two pages'-numbered 6. UNIVERSITY MICROFILMS Text follows. Filmed as received. FACTORS WHICH DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN SUCCESSFUL AND DISMISSED STUDENTS ON ACADEMIC PROBATION AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY By Susan Clarkson Repp A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan S t a t e U niv ersit y in p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t of th e requirements f o r the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of A dm inistr atio n and Higher Education 1980 ABSTRACT FACTORS WHICH DIFFERENTIATE BETWEEN SUCCESSFUL AND DISMISSED STUDENTS ON ACADEMIC PROBATION AT CENTRAL MICHIGAN UNIVERSITY By Susan Clarkson Repp The Problem When s tu d e n t s a r e admitted t o c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s using s e l e c t i v e admissions c r i t e r i a , a judgement i s made t h a t they have the p o t e n t i a l t o succeed in c o l l e g e lev el work. Many, however, r e c e iv e f a i l i n g grades and a r e placed on academic probation o r dism is sed. The primary purpose o f t h i s study was to i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s which d i f f e r e n ­ t i a t e between freshmen s tu d en ts on academic probatio n a t Central Michi­ gan U niversity who succeed a t r a i s i n g t h e i r grades above pr obat ion l e v e l , and tho se who f a i l t o r a i s e t h e i r grades and a r e dism issed. A second purpose was to i d e n t i f y a conci se s e t o f f a c t o r s which can be used to p r e d i c t the f u t u r e performance o f freshman s t u d e n t s on p robatio n. Procedures The sample c o n s is t e d o f 139 f i r s t semester freshmen on pr obation a t t h e end o f th e Fall semester 1976 who could be c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e ss fu l (above 2.00) o r academically dismissed a f t e r fo ur s e m e s te r s , and f o r whom American College Test (ACT) p r o f i l e s were a v a i l a b l e . Data were used i n d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s to i d e n t i f y d i f f e r e n c e s and to produce d i s c r i m in a n t f u n c tio n c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r p r e d i c t i o n . Data from a second sample o f 122 freshmen on pr obat ion a t the end o f th e Fall semester 1977 were used t o c r o s s - v a l i d a t e t h e r e r ^ H s . Thir ty -o n e v a r i a b l e s from s tu d e n t records over f o u r semesters were analyzed. The f i r s t h y p o th e s i s , t e s t e d a t t h e .01 lev el o f s i g n i f i c a n c e , was: no v a r i a b l e s would be found which d i s c r i m i n a t e d between s u ccess fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . The second h y p o t h e s i s , to be t e s t e d i f t h e f i r s t was r e j e c t e d , was: v a r i a b l e s found t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u c c e ss fu l and dismissed s tu d e n t s would not p r e d i c t success o r f a i l u r e o f s tu d e n ts on probation a t a level g r e a t e r than chance. Findings Over f o u r s em e s t e r s , twenty-two v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t a t one o r more points in time. v a r i a b l e s were: Thus, the f i r s t hy pothesis was r e j e c t e d . The sex; high school GPA, f o u r ACT s u b t e s t s c o r e s ; expressed need f o r h e l p with e d u c a t i o n a l / v o c a t i o n a l p l a n s , w r i t i n g , r ea ding and study s k i l l s , and personal c ouns elin g; course load during the second, t h i r d and f o u rt h s e m e ster s; hours withdrawn durin g th e f i r s t , second, t h i r d and f o u rt h s e m e s t e r s , hours incomplete durin g th e f i r s t and second s e m e ste r s; hours re peated during the t h i r d s em est er ; and f i r s t seme ster c o l l e g e GPA. Dis crim inan t sc or es were used t o p r e d i c t success o r dism is sa l a t f o u r p o i n ts in time. P r e d i c t i v e accuracy ranged from 71.94 per c e n t f o r the f i r s t semester to 96.88 pe r c e n t f o r the f o u r t h se me ste r. Pre­ d i c t i v e accuracy f o r t h e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample ranged from 64.75 per c e n t t o 77.34 per c ent over f o u r s em e sters. Thus, th e second hypothesis was r e j e c t e d . Four v a r i a b l e s which were c o n s i s t e n t l y s i g n i f i c a n t over time were submitted t o f i n a l d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s : high school GPA, f i r s t semester c o l le g e GPA, th e ACT Social Studies s c o r e , and th e need f o r help with study s k i l l s . This s e t o f v a r i a b l e s y i e l d e d a p r e d i c t i v e accuracy o f 69.78 per c ent f o r th e f i r s t sample, and 66.39 per cent f o r the c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample. Conclusions and Recommendations The s t a t i s t i c a l technique o f d i s c r im i n a n t a n a l y s is proved to be an e f f e c t i v e method f o r i d e n t i f y i n g d i f f e r e n c e s between freshmen s tu d e n ts on academic prob ation a t Central Michigan U n iv e r sit y who were subse­ quen tl y s u ccess fu l o r dismissed. The p r e d i c t i o n technique was useful as a d i a g n o s t i c t o o l , but the level o f accuracy contained too much margin f o r e r r o r to be used as a decision-making t o o l . The f u l l s e t o f v a r i a b l e s provided information which i d e n t i f i e d tre nds among the groups, while the reduced s e t o f v a r i a b l e s was cons idered more p r a c t i c a l f o r prediction. Based on t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e s tu d y , i t i s recommended t h a t d i s ­ cr i m in a n t a n a l y s i s be used more widely f o r comparing group d i f f e r e n c e s , and as a p r e d i c t i v e device. F u r t h e r , i t is recommended t h a t th e t e c h ­ nique be ap p lie d t o data on p r obationa ry s tu d e n ts a t o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s t o i d e n t i f y p a t t e r n s e x i s t i n g in o th e r educational s e t t i n g s . ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The w r i t e r extends s p e c i a l a p p r e c i a t i o n to Gary North f o r h is a s s i s t a n c e as major a d v i s e r and c hairpers on o f the d i s s e r t a t i o n committee. Gra titu de i s a l s o expressed to th e o th e r members of th e committee, Walter Johnson, Kay White and Charles Atkin, f o r t h e i r advice and encouragement. Special a p p r e c i a t i o n i s extended to th e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f members a t Central Michigan U n iv e r s it y who a s s i s t e d in the re se arch project: James Hill and Glenn S t a r n e r of th e Student A f f a i r s O f fic e , Ronald Finch of the R e g i s t r a r ’s O f f i c e , and A1 Vanderzanden of th e Computer Services O ffice . The w r i t e r a l s o wishes t o thank her p r o fe s s i o n a l co lleag ues a t Central Michigan U n iv ersit y f o r t h e i r supp ort and encouragement; and her family f o r t h e i r continuous understanding and p a ti en ce. TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES................................................................................................... v THE PROBLEM................................................................................................... 1 Need f o r the S t u d y ........................................................... Purpose o f th e S t u d y ............................................................................. Lim it ations o f th e Study ..................................................................... Research Questions .................................................................................. D e f i n i t i o n of Terms......................... Background o f th e Study.................... .................................................... Organization o f th e Study.................................................................... 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 REVIEW OF LITERATURE............................................................................. 8 General P r e d ic ti o n o f Academic Achievement .............................. P r e d i c ti n g Academic Achievement of P ro ba tionar y Students ..................................................................... F actors Associated with AcademicF a i l u r e ..................................... Treatment Programs f o r Students On Academic P r o b a t i o n ............................................................................. Academic Achievement and Retention . . . . ................................. Summary..................................................................................... 8 38 44 49 DESIGN OF THE STUDY................................................................................. 51 Population and S a m p l e s .................................. ...................................... Var iab les S t u d i e d ...................................................................................... C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f S u b j e c t s ..................... .... ...................................... Procedures f o r Data C o l l e c t i o n ........................................................ Research Design and S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis ..................................... V a l i d i t y and R e l i a b i l i t y ..................................................................... H y p o t h e s e s ................................................................................................... Summary........................................................................................................... 51 52 54 55 55 57 59 60 RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS.............................. .......................................... 61 S i g n i f i c a n t V ariable s. Variables Over Time..................... P r e d i c ti o n of Success or Dismissal . , ......................................... C r o s s - V a l i d a t i o n ................................................... Final Discriminant A n a l y s i s ................................................................. 62 70 72 76 78 I. II. III. IV. iii 21 30 Page ................. . ......................................... 81 V. SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS ANDRECOMMENDATIONS ................................. 82 Purpose.......................................... ............................................................ Hypotheses , . ................................................................................ . Procedures ..................... Findings . ....................................................... Conclusions Based OnFindings. . . . . .................................. Recommendations...................................................................................... 82 82 82 83 84 87 BIBLIOGRAPHY ................................................................................................... 89 Summary, iv LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Summary of Lavin's C l a s s i f i c a t i o n of S i n g le -V a ri a b l e and M u lt i v a r i a t e Stu dies on P r e d i c t i o n of Academic Performance: P e r s o n a l i t y Var iab les Associated With Higher Levels of Performance............................................................. 11 2. A s t i n ' s L i s t of Student C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t P r e d i c t Freshman GPA A f te r C on tr o llin g f o r Sex, High School Grades and College S e l e c t i v i t y ............................................................ 17 3. Combination of V ar iables I s o l a t e d by Tew Which Discriminated Between Successful and F a il in g P ro bationa ry S t u d e n t s ....................................................................................... 23 4. Var iab les Found by Himmelreich t o be S i g n i f i c a n t l y Corr elate d with Achievement o f Prob ationar y Students . . . . 26 5. S i g n i f i c a n t Variables in S h r e f f l e r ' s Discriminant Analysis . 30 6. S i g n i f i c a n t Var iables in Husa's Comparison o f Successful and Unsuccessful S t u d e n t s ...............................................................................31 7. Reasons f o r Poor Academic Performance Ranked by Faculty in Choi and Malak's S u r v e y .........................................................37 8. Sixteen Primary Factors Lis ted by K e l l e r ' s Respondents . As Being Most Responsible f o r Poor Academic Achievement. . . 9. 39 Var iables Studied and P o s s ib le Values......................................................53 10. S i g n i f i c a n t Var iables A fte r F i r s t Semester .................................... 11. Discriminant Function C o e f f i c i e n t s and Group Means A fter F i r s t S e m e s t e r ....................................................................................... 63 12. S i g n i f i c a n t Variables A f te r Second Semester......................................... 64 13. Discriminant Function C o e f f i c i e n t s and Group Means A f te r Second Semester....................................................................................... 65 14. S i g n i f i c a n t V ar iables A f te r Third Semester .................................... 66 15. Discriminant Function C o e f f i c i e n t s and Group Means A f t e r Third Semester .................................................................................. 67 v 62 Table Page 16. S i g n i f i c a n t Variables A f t e r Fourth Semester............................... 68 17. Discrim inant Function C o e f f i c i e n t s and Groups Means A f t e r Fourth Semester............................................................................. 69 18. S i g n i f i c a n c e and I n fluence of Variables Over Time................... 70 19. Examples From C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Technique ........................................ 73 20. P r e d ic ti o n Results A f te r F i r s t Semester....................................... 74 21. P r e d ic ti o n Results A f te r Second Semester .................................. 74 22. P r e d ic t i o n Results A f t e r Third Semester....................................... 75 23. Prediction Results A f t e r Fourth Semester .................................. 75 24. C r o s s- V a l id a t io n : P r e d i c ti o n Results A f te r F i r s t Semester 76 25. C r o s s - V a lid a tio n : P r e d i c t i o n Results A f te r Second S e m e s t e r ....................................................................................................... 77 C r o s s - V a lid a tio n : P r e d i c t i o n Results A f te r Third S e m e s t e r ....................................................................................................... 77 C r o s s - V a lid a tio n : P r e d i c t i o n Results A f te r Fourth S e m e s t e r ....................................................................................................... 78 Dis cr im inan t Function C o e f f i c i e n t s in Final Dis cr im inan t A n a l y s is .............................................................................. 79 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Results in Final Discriminant Analysis 1976 Sample................................................................................................... 80 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Results in Final Discriminant Analysis 1977 C ros s- V alidatio n Sample ............................................................ 80 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. vi CHAPTER I THE PROBLEM When s tu d e n t s a r e admitted to c o lle g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s using s e l e c t i v e admissions c r i t e r i a , a judgement i s made t h a t they have the p o t e n t i a l to succeed in c o ll e g e lev el work. Many, however, r e c e i v e f a i l i n g grades and a r e placed on academic pr ob at ion or dism is sed. Des­ p i t e p r i o r achievement and s a t i s f a c t o r y a p t i t u d e t e s t s c o r e s , thes e s tu d e n t s f a i l t o meet th e academic stan dards o f t h e i n s t i t u t i o n . Although some l o s s o f s t u d e n ts due t o academic f a i l u r e must be ex­ pe cted, the l o s s i s too g r e a t to avoid a t t e n t i o n . John Summerskill, a f t e r reviewing t h i r t y s t u d i e s on c o lle g e s t u d e n t a t t r i t i o n due to academic r e a s o n s , observed t h a t academic f a i l u r e accounted f o r t h i r t y - t h r e e per c e n t o f the c o l l e g e dropout r a t e . * Summerskill noted t h a t an urge nt need e x i s t e d f o r f u r t h e r re se ar ch on academic f a i l u r e , and f u r t h e r commented t h a t : " . . . t e n s o f thousands o f s tu d e n ts leave c o l l e g e each ye a r because they cannot make th e grade a c a d e m i c a l l y . . . Since t h e o b j e c t i v e s o f th e c o l l e g e a r e to educate and graduate t h e s tu d e n ts they admit, academic f a i l u r e must be viewed as a f a i l u r e on th e p a r t o f the i n s t i t u t i o n as well as on th e p a r t o f t h e i n d iv id u a l s t u d e n t s . Summerskill d i s c u s s e d t h r e e reasons why s tu d e n t a t t r i t i o n i n t e r e s t to c o l l e g e s . is of The f i r s t concern i s a l o s s o f public t r u s t when the i n s t i t u t i o n i s seen as having f a i l e d to meet the o b j e c t i v e of q u a l i f y i n g young people f o r c a r e e r s . The second i s a concern f o r the lo ss o f e f f i c i e n c y r e p r e s e n te d by th e tim e, energy and money spen t on *John Summerskill, "Dropouts from Coll ege," in The American C o ll e g e , ed. N e v i t t Sanford, (New York: John Wiley, 1962). 2I b i d . , p. 637. 2 s tu d e n t s who drop out. The t h t r d concern, which i s not o f te n d i s c u s s e d , 3 i s th e lo ss o f revenue which occurs when s tu d e n t s lea ve th e c o l l e g e . The f a i l i n g s t u d e n t a l s o s u f f e r s a l o s s . The s tu d e n t has als o in v e ste d a co n s id e ra b le amount o f tim e, energy and money in th e educa­ t i o n a l proce ss , and has al s o f a i l e d t o meet an o b j e c t i v e . Thomas C o tt le des cr ib ed th e f r u s t r a t i o n and l o s s o f s e l f - e s t e e m experienced by a f a i l i n g s tu d e n t whom he had advised during two years o f c o l l e g e . s t u d e n t , r e f e r r e d t o as Jon, had e x c e l l e n t high 4 The school grades, a strong background in s c ie n c e , and planned to become an eng in ee r. When his f i r s t term grades r e s u l t e d in C's and D 's, he was embarrassed over h i s i n a b i l i t y to throw him se lf i n t o his s t u d i e s . He searched the c o lle g e c a ta lo g f o r "easy" courses t o avoid " f e e l i n g dumb". In J o n ' s words" "I d o n ' t th in k I'm dumb, but I must b e . . . The whole world th in k s t h a t i f y o u ' r e h e r e , you got to be b r i l l i a n t . So how do you e x p lain to them y o u ' r e p r e t t y godawful common?... I d o n ' t want people t o know, except t h a t my p ar en ts w ill have to f in d out sooner o r l a t e r , I s u p p o s e . . . Can you see me going home.. . c a r r y i n g a reco rd l i k e t h i s ? I may be dumb, but I 5 d o n ' t go around making s ure everybody f in d s o u t about t h i s . " As h i s grades worsened, Jon became preoccupied with s tu dyin g, but h i s confidence was t o t a l l y broken. Not many o f h is f r i e n d s knew about his poor grades u n t i l ex pulsion became a r e a l i t y . out o f c o l l e g e a t th e end o f his second y e a r . Jon flunked His p a r t i n g comments summarized his f e e l i n g s : "I am the zero man.. . a b s o l u t e l y nothing."® 3I b i d , , p. 634. ^Thomas C o t t l e , C o ll e g e : o f Chicago P ress , 1977), 5I b i d . , pp. 117-118. 6I b i d . , p. 127. Reward and B e t r a y a l , (Chicago: Univ. 3 Need f o r th e Study Numerous r esear ch s t u d i e s have i d e n t i f i e d f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with academic achievement, and a l e s s e r amount have been concerned with f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with academic f a i l u r e . Studies concerning the aca­ demic achievement o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n ts on academic pr ob at ion have been completed a t sev er al i n s t i t u t i o n s , b u t th e information provided has l i m i t e d value f o r a p p l i c a t i o n to s tu d e n ts on pr obation a t o t h e r c o lle g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s . Diffe re nce s in academic p o l i c i e s and s tu d e n t c h a r ­ a c t e r i s t i c s a t var ious i n s t i t u t i o n s prev en t th e g e n e r a l i z a t i o n of r e s u l t s from one campus t o a n o th e r . This study w i l l provide i n f o r ­ mation which i s a p p l i c a b l e to s t u d e n ts on academic pr ob ation a t Central Michigan U n iv e r sity . One o f the shortcomings o f previous s t u d i e s i s t h a t many were completed b e f o r e common usage o f computers as data a n a l y z e r s , and thus were l im i t e d t o u n i v a r i a t e s t u d i e s o r simple m u l t i v a r i a t e s t u d i e s . While t h e se s tu d i e s a r e v alu ab le in showing the r e l a t i o n s h i p of one v a r i a b l e , o r a small group o f v a r i a b l e s , to th e academic achievement o f p r o batio na ry s t u d e n t s , they a r e too l i m i t e d in scope to allow f o r more complete examination o f th e a v a i l a b l e info rmation. This study uses a m u l t i v a r i a t e approach which allows f o r simultaneous comparison o f a l a r g e r number o f v a r i a b l e s . Another shortcoming o f previous s t u d i e s is t h a t many o f them followed th e progress o f s tu d e n ts on probatio n f o r a s h o r t time p e r i o d , u s u a l l y only one o r two terms o r s e m e ste r s. This study t r a c k s academic progress f o r f o u r s e m e s te r s , which provides th e o p p ortu nity t o confirm or disc on firm tre n d s found in s h o r t e r time spans. Many o f t h e s t u d i e s reviewed analyzed data from q u e s ti o n n a i r e s s e n t t o s tu d e n ts on p r o b a t i o n , or were based on data from p e r s o n a l i t y assessment instruments which were ad ministered t o such s t u d e n t s . This study employs the use o f da ta contained in s t u d e n t ' s academic f i l e s which i s r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e to a d m i n i s t r a t o r s who make d ec is io n s con­ cerning the r e t e n t i o n or dism is sa l o f s tu d e n t s with low grades. At Central Michigan U n i v e r s i t y , these d e c is io n s a r e made in a c o n cen tr ate d time per iod between s e m e s t e r s , and involve th e review o f hundreds o f folders. The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f information on f a c t o r s r e l a t i n g to th e academic achievement o f p r o b atio n a ry s tu d e n ts would be helpfu l in decision-making on s t u d e n t ' s academic s t a t u s , and f o r adv isi ng s tu d e n t s on courses o f a c t i o n which could r e s u l t in improved performance. At a time when r e t e n t i o n o f s tu d e n ts i s a major concern in higher educa­ t i o n , improved a b i l i t y to a s s i s t pro ba tionary s t u d e n t s would a id in s e rv in g th e need f o r r e t e n t i o n techniques a t Central Michigan Univer­ sity. Purpose o f the Study The primary purpose of th e study i s to i d e n t i f y s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s which d i f f e r e n t i a t e between freshman s tu d e n ts on p r obat ion a t Central Michigan U n iv e r s i ty who succeed a t r a i s i n g t h e i r grades above probatio n l e v e l , and th o s e who f a i l t o r a i s e t h e i r grades and ar e dism is sed. In a d d i t i o n , a secondary purpose i s to i d e n t i f y a co ncis e s e t o f f a c t o r s from inform atio n a v a i l a b l e in academic f o l d e r s which can be used t o p r e d i c t th e f u t u r e performance o f freshman s t u d e n ts on p r o b atio n . 5 Lim it at io ns o f the Study The study i s l i m i t e d to f i r s t semester freshman s tu d e n ts on academic proba tion a t Central Michigan U n iv e r s it y who subsequently r a i s e d t h e i r grade p o i n t averages above 2.00 or were academically dismissed w ith in th e f i r s t f o u r semesters o f a tt endance. P roba tionar y s tu d e n ts who v o l u n t a r i l y withdrew from the U n i v e r s it y during th e f i r s t f o u r semesters o r who remained on pr ob at ion a f t e r f our semesters were not included in t h e study. The study i s a l s o l i m i t e d t o da ta found in p r obatio na ry s t u d e n t s ' academic f o l d e r s and does not in clude data on p e r s o n a l i t y f a c t o r s , assessment o f s tu d e n t motivation f o r academic achievement, or information from personal in te rv ie w s . Research Questions The b a s ic questi on t o be answered i s : which pieces o f i n f o r ­ mation in pro batio n a ry s t u d e n t s ' f o l d e r s can be used f o r e f f e c t i v e decision-making and advisement? More s p e c i f i c ques tio ns follow from t h i s b a s ic q u e s ti o n . Which v a r i a b l e s ar e a s s o c i a t e d with improvement, and which ar e a s s o c i a t e d with f a i l u r e ? Which v a r i a b l e s most c l e a r l y d i f f e r e n t i a t e succ es sful s tu d e n ts from s t u d e n t s who f a i l ? Can a combination o f f a c t o r s which d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u c c e s s ­ ful and f a i l i n g s tu d e n t s be used to p r e d i c t f u t u r e performance? How much accuracy can be obt ai ne d in p r e d i c t io n ? Hypotheses r e l a t e d to th e s e r esear ch q u e s ti o n s w il l be s t a t e d in Chap­ t e r I I I , Design o f t h e Study. 6 D e f i n i ti o n o f Terms D e f i n i t i o n s o f terms used f r e q u e n t l y in the study a r e prese nte d below t o provide a common b a s i s f o r und er standing t h e i r usage. Academic achievement r e f e r s t o th e level o f accomplishment gained in school coursework as measured by grade p o in t averages (GPA1s ). Academic f a i l u r e o r dism is sal i s used t o d e s c r ib e a s i t u a t i o n in which a s t u d e n t ' s achievement lev el f a l l s below th e minimum s ta nda rd s o f a c o l l e g e , and r e s u l t s in the c o l l e g e ' s d e c is io n to ter m i n a te th e s t u d e n t ' s e n rollm ent. Academic suspension o r c a n c e l l a t i o n a r e synony­ mous terms. Academic probation i s used t o d e s c r i b e an achievement level which f a l l s below e s t a b l i s h e d grade p o i n t s ta nda rd s ( u s u a l ly 2.00 but may be lower f o r freshmen s t u d e n t s ) b u t does not f a l l below the le ve l e s t a b ­ lished fo r dismissal. Academic s ta n d a rd s r e f e r s to t h e GPA level d e l i n e a t e d by a c o ll e g e to determine whether a s t u d e n t ' s achievement i s s a t i s f a c t o r y f o r ear ning a degr ee. Academic progre ss r e f e r s t o t h e process by which a s tu d e n t s e l e c t s a curriculum and f i e l d o f s tu d y , and s u c c e s s f u l l y completes coursework according t o e s t a b l i s h e d requirements f o r a c o l l e g e degree. Academic success i s used t o i l l u s t r a t e a grade p o i n t average which meets th e academic standa rd s o f th e i n s t i t u t i o n . Academic a p t i t u d e d e s c r i b e s a p o t e n t i a l f o r academic achievement as measured by a s ta n d a r d i z e d t e s t i n g in stru m en t. Academic withdrawal i s a term used to i d e n t i f y those s tu d e n t s who v o l u n t a r i l y le av e c o l l e g e , f o r any reason. 6 Background o f th e Study Central Michigan U n i v e r s it y i s a p u b lic i n s t i t u t i o n which o f f e r s a l i b e r a l ed ucation in p r e p a r a t i o n f o r b a c c a l a u r e a t e , m a s t e r s , s p e c i a l ­ i s t and d o cto r al degrees. ed ucation. A major emphasis i s placed on undergraduate At the opening o f th e f a l l s e m e st e r , 1979, the Universi ty had an enr ollm en t o f 16,821, o f which 14,302 were undergraduate s t u d e n t s . The academic f i l e s o f undergraduate s tu d e n t s whose grades do not meet minimum s ta n d a rd s a r e reviewed each seme ster in th e O f fic e of Student A f f a i r s . A computer program encodes th e grade r e p o r t s of s tu d e n t s below minimum according to e s t a b l i s h e d c r i t e r i a s t a t e d in the Central Michigan U n iv e r s i ty B u l l e t i n . Under t h e s u p e rv is io n o f t h e D i r e c t o r o f t h e Offi ce o f Stude nt A f f a i r s , the f o l d e r s a r e reviewed by a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f members. These a d m i n i s t r a t o r s a t t a c h a lab el to each f o l d e r i n d i c a t i n g t h e i r judgement o f whether the s t u d e n t should be r e t a i n e d on academic probatio n o r dism is sed. These d e c i s io n s a r e made on th e b a s i s o f th e number o f hours a ttem pte d, hours ear ned , po i n t s d e f i c i e n t (a measure o f th e number o f c r e d i t hours below C), previous academic s t a t u s , and o t h e r academic c r i t e r i a as deemed appro­ priate. Each f o l d e r i s reviewed by the D i r e c t o r o f t h e Offi ce o f Student A f f a i r s , who v e r i f i e s o r changes t h e lab el a p p l i e d , and d i r e c t s th e p r e p a r a tio n o f l e t t e r s which a r e mailed t o s t u d e n ts t o inform them o f th e ir status. Some p r o b atio n a ry s tu d e n t s a r e asked t o make appointments with an a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s t a f f member in the Student A f f a i r s O f fic e to d isc u s s t h e i r s t a t u s and t o p a r t i c i p a t e in an academic a d v is in g and r e f e r r a l i n t e r v i e w , and a l l who r e c e i v e pr ob ation l e t t e r s a r e informed o f t h i s re s o u r c e . The f i l e s o f freshmen s t u d e n t s a r e a l s o reviewed by the 7 Coordinator o f th e Educational S k i l l s Unit o f the Counseling Center , and l e t t e r s a r e s e n t informing t h e s e s tu d e n t s o f courses and t u t o r i n g s e r v i c e s o f f e r e d by th e Unit. Dismissed s tu d e n t s may r e q u e s t an in te rv iew with an a d m i n is t r a ­ t i v e s t a f f member. At t h i s p o i n t , t h e s t u d e n t ' s academic p r o g r e s s , achievement, personal a t t i t u d e s and d i f f i c u l t i e s a r e discu ssed in depth. A d e c is io n may be made to r e i n s t a t e th e s tu d e n t o r t o recommend t h a t t h e s tu d e n t apply f o r readmission a f t e r a semester o r more away from campus. Decisions on readmission may be appealed to th e Vice P r e s i d e n t f o r Student A f f a i r s . In a f i v e y e a r p e r i o d , from December, 1974, t o May, 1979, an average o f 646 undergraduate s tu d e n t s were r e t a i n e d on academic pro­ b a t i o n a t the end o f th e f a l l o r w i n t e r s em e sters, and an average o f 197 were dism is sed.^ Or ganization o f th e Study In Chapter I I , a review o f p e r t i n e n t l i t e r a t u r e on p r e d i c t i o n o f academic achievement and achievement o f pr obation ary s tu d e n ts i s p r e ­ s e n te d . Chapter I I I co ntains a d e s c r i p t i o n o f th e r e se a r c h d e s ig n , and procedures f o r c o l l e c t i n g and analyzing th e d a t a . t h e r e s u l t s o f the s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s a r e p resented. In Chapter IV, Chapter V c o n t a in s a summary o f the s tu d y , followed by conclusions based on th e f in d i n g s and recommendations f o r f u r t h e r study. O ffice o f Student A f f a i r s , Central Michigan U n iv e r s ity , record o f s t u d e n t s placed on academic probatio n o r c a n c e lle d a t th e end o f th e f a l l and w i n t e r s e m e ste r , 1972-1979, (Mt. P l e a s a n t , Michigan: Central Michigan U n i v e r s i t y , n . d . ) . CHAPTER II REVIEW OF LITERATURE The review o f l i t e r a t u r e i s organized under f i v e major headings. These a r e : (1) general p r e d i c t i o n o f academic achievement; (2) p r e­ d i c t i n g academic achievement of pr obation ary s t u d e n t s ; (3) f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with academic f a i l u r e ; (4) tre a tm e n t programs f o r s tu dents on academic p r o b a t io n ; and (5) the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f academic ac hiev e­ ment to r e t e n t i o n . Studies r e l a t i n g to each of thes e t o p i c s ar e reviewed, in t u r n , in t h i s c h a p t e r . General P r e d i c t i o n o f Academic Achievement David L a vin 's comprehensive review o f s tu d i e s on p r e d i c t i o n of academic performance provides a foundation f o r general d is c u s s io n on prediction. Lavin reviewed and analyzed n e a r l y 300 sources on p r e ­ d i c t i o n , almost a l l o f which were pu blished during th e period from 1953 to 1961. Lavin r e p o r te d t h e s t u d i e s in t h r e e c a t e g o r i e s accord­ ing to th e n a tu r e o f th e p r e d i c t o r s emphasized. are: The th r e e c a t e g o r i e s (1) i n t e l l e c t i v e f a c t o r s ; (2) p e r s o n a l i t y f a c t o r s ; and (3) Q s o c io l o g i c a l d e te r m in a n ts . Under th e catego ry o f i n t e l l e c t i v e f a c t o r s , Lavin r e p o r t s s i x ­ teen s t u d i e s on a b i l i t y t e s t s which use one s core t o p r e d i c t subsequent performance. These s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e t h a t a b i l i t y t e s t s c o r r e l a t e approximate +.50 with c o lle g e grade p o i n t average. Twenty s t u d i e s involving a b i l i t y t e s t s which used s c o re s from s u b t e s t s to p r e d i c t Q David E. Lavin, The P r e d ic ti o n of Academic Performance ( H a rtf o rd , Conn: Connecticut P r i n t e r s In c. ) f o r tfie Russel Sage Foundation, New York, 1965. performance showed an average c o r r e l a t i o n o f +.65. In both types o f s t u d i e s , thos e involving t e s t s using a s i n g l e score and those using s u b sc o r e s, some c o r r e l a t i o n s were computed s e p a r a t e l y f o r males and females. Where t h i s s e p a r a t e computation was done, a few showed no sex d i f f e r e n c e , s evera l found high c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r females than males, and none found higher c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r males. Lavin concluded t h a t academic performance o f females tends to be more p r e d i c t a b l e . In a d d i t i o n , from s t u d i e s which employed high school grades or high school rank in c l a s s as p r e d i c t o r s , Lavin concluded t h a t th e high school academic record i s th e s i n g l e b e s t p r e d i c t o r o f c o l l e g e gr ades. g In r e p o r t i n g on p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s used as p r e d i c t o r s , Lavin analyzed over 120 sources t o summarize the f i n d i n g s . 10 The m a jo rit y o f the s t u d i e s employed c o r r e l a t i o n a l techniques to p r e d i c t academic p e r ­ formance from a s i n g l e v a r i a b l e . were: The v a r i a b l e s used f o r p r e d i c t i o n measures o f study h a b i t s and a t t i t u d e s toward s tu d y , including s e l f - r e p o r t i n g i n v e n t o r i e s o r t e a c h e r or peer r a t i n g s o f study h a b i t s ; measures o f s u b j e c t m a tt e r and /o r occupational i n t e r e s t s ; measures of achievement m o t iv a ti o n , through t h e use o f q u e s ti o n n a i r e s o r p r o j e c t i v e t ec hn iques ; measures o f independence or conform ity, using p e r s o n a l i t y s c a l e s o r p r o j e c t i v e te ch n iq u es ; measures o f i m p u l s i v i t y , using p e r ­ s o n a l i t y s c a l e s ; measures of general an x ie ty o r a n x iety concerning level o f academic performance, using p e r s o n a l i t y t e s t s such as th e Manifest Anxiety S c ale; measures o f i n t r o v e r s i o n , using p e r s o n a l i t y g I b i d . , pp. 51-57, f o r c i t a t i o n s o f s t u d i e s reviewed, see pp. 60-61. 10I b i d . , f o r c i t a t i o n s o f s t u d i e s reviewed, see pp. 111-121. 10 t e s t s ; and measures of ad ju st m ent, using the Minnesota Multiphasic Per­ s o n a l i t y Inventory. In a d d i t i o n t o t h e s e s i n g l e v a r i a b l e s t u d i e s , Lavin r e p o r te d s e v e r a l m u l t i v a r i a t e s tu d i e s which employed m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n ana­ l y s i s and /or f a c t o r a n a l y s i s t o t e s t th e value o f p r e d i c t o r s . Lavin summarized and ca te g o r iz e d the r e s u l t s o f the m u l t i v a r i a t e s t u d i e s i n t o s i x p e r s o n a l i t y dimensions, and f u r t h e r i l l u s t r a t e d how f in d in g s from s i n g l e v a r i a b l e s t u d i e s aligned with the r e s u l t s o f m u l t i v a r i a t e stu d ies.^ Table 1 is a summary review o f the f in dings and Lavin's c la ssific a tio n structure. Studies o f s o c i o l o g i c a l determinants co n s id e r the e f f e c t s of so c ia l s e t t i n g s or r o l e r e l a t i o n s h i p s on academic performance, o r th e e f f e c t s o f e co lo g ical and demographic v a r i a b l e s such as socioeconomic s t a t u s (SES), r e l i g i o n , r u r a l - u r b a n background, and t h e l i k e . reviewed over e i g h t y s tu d i e s o f s o c io l o g i c a l d eter m in a n ts . Lavin The l a r g e s t number o f s t u d i e s cons idered th e e f f e c t s of socioeconomic s t a t u s (SES). Objective techniques involving weighted sc o re s on v a r i a b l e s such as occu pation, e d u c a ti o n , income, and o t h e r s , were used t o determine SES. At a l l educ ationa l l e v e l s from elementary school to grad uat e s c h o o l, SES was p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o academic performance; exc ep t in tho se samples which included only c o l le g e s tu d e n ts from upper c l a s s back­ grounds, where an in v e r s e r e l a t i o n s h i p was found. Findings on sex d i f f e r e n c e s i n d i c a t e t h a t the lev el o f academic performance of females i s higher than t h a t o f males; and t h a t p a t t e r n s o f underachievement ^ I b i d . , pp. 106-107, p. 110. 11 TABLE 1 SUMMARY OF LAVIN'S CLASSIFICATION OF SINGLE-VARIABLE AND MULTIVARIATE STUDIES ON PREDICTION OF ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE: PERSONALITY VARIABLES ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER LEVELS OF PERFORMANCE Dimensions from M u l t i v a r i a t e Findings I. Social Matur ity in t h e Student Role G rea ter s o c ia l m a t u r i t y and s o c i a l i ­ z a t i o n , acceptance o f r e s p o n s i b i l i t y , r e s t r a i n t in s o c i a l behavior II. Higher achievement motivation Cognitive S ty le G reate r c u r i o s i t y , o r i g i n a l i t y , and f l e x i b i l i t y , more r e l e v a n t th in k in g in c l a s s , g r e a t e r c l a s s p a rtic ip a tio n , greater liking for t h i n k i n g , l e s s d i f f i c u l t y with ambiguity and a b s t r a c t i o n V. Less t e s t an x ie ty Achievement Motivation Higher m ot iv at ion and g r e a t e r endurance IV. B e t t e r study h a b i t s , more p o s i t i v e a t t i t u d e s toward study, less h o s t i l i t y Emotional S t a b i l i t y Higher morale, g r e a t e r s t a b i l i t y more freedom from n e u r o t ic o r i e n t a t i o n t o study III. Alignment with S in g le Variab le Findings G reate r f l e x i b i l i t y in problem-solving Achievement Via Conformance Higher need f o r o r d e r , g r e a t e r conformance VI. Achievement Via Independence Lower need f o r a f f i l i a t i o n , g r e a t e r independence, low conformity to peer group s t a n d a r d s , moderate im p u l s iv ity More independence and/or i n t r o v e r s i o n , l e s s impul­ s i v i t y , g r e a t e r independence in choice of vo ca tional interests 12 Table 1 ( c o n t ' d . ) Dimensions from M u l t i v a r i a t e Findings Alignment with Sin gle Va riab le Findings Non-aligned s i n g l e ­ variable f in d i n g s : More p o s i t i v e s e lf - i m a g e , l e s s de fensi veness about r e v e a lin g p e r s o n a l i t y i n ­ adequacy, g r e a t e r i n t e r e s t in c o n ten t ar eas o f high achievement may be d i f f e r e n t f o r females than f o r males. 12 I n c o n s i s t e n t o r in c o n c l u s iv e r e s u l t s were found in s t u d i e s con­ s i d e r i n g such v a r i a b l e s as r e l i g i o n , regional o r ur b an -r u ra l back­ ground, high school s i z e , academic l o a d , family s i z e and b i r t h o r d e r. In s evera l o f t h e s e s t u d i e s , s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p s were found; but most o f the r e l a t i o n s h i p s disappe ared when SES a n d /o r i n t e l l i g e n c e were c o n t r o l l e d . 13 Based on h i s ex h au s tiv e review, Lavin c a uti ons t h a t r e se a r c h s t u d i e s t e s t i n g the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f academic performance should in clude methods t o control f o r s e x , a b i l i t y , and socioeconomic s t a t u s . In a d d i t i o n , he a s s e r t s t h a t s t u d i e s o f underachievement should d i f f e r e n t i a t e between s tu d e n ts o f h ig h , medium and low a b i l i t y ; s in c e f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t i n g to underachievement may be d i f f e r e n t , o r may o p er ate d i f f e r e n t l y a t 12 I b i d . , p. 130, f o r c i t a t i o n s o f s t u d i e s reviewed, see pp. ISO- 156. 13I b i d . , p. 138. 13 d iffe re n t levels of a b ility . This method o f d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n a l s o allows f o r th e p o s s i b i l i t y o f f in d i n g c u r v i l i n e a r r a t h e r than l i n e a r r e l a t i o n ­ sh ip s.^ Benjamin Bloom and Frank P ete r s attempted t o improve upon previous p r e d i c t i o n s t u d i e s which used high school grades and a p t i t u d e t e s t sco res to compute c o r r e l a t i o n s . Th eir review o f l i t e r a t u r e included f o r t y s t u d i e s , many o f which were the same as tho se reviewed by Lavin. Bloom and P e t e r s 1 method was t o c r e a t e a p r e d i c t i o n s c a l e which i n ­ cluded a d ju s t e d values f o r th e r e l a t i v e level o f achievement o f s tu d e n t s from a s e l e c t e d sample o f high schools a t a s e l e c t e d sample o f c o l l e g e s . The purpose o f t h i s procedure was to reduce t h e amount o f e r r o r con­ t r i b u t e d by v a r i a t i o n s in grading standa rd s a t d i f f e r e n t high schools and c o l l e g e s . 15 The sample included approximately 25,000 s t u d e n ts from 150 high schools who had subsequently a tten d ed 300 c o l l e g e s . Data c o n s i s t i n g o f high school g r ad es, a p t i t u d e t e s t s c o r e s , and c o l l e g e grades were s o r t e d i n t o groups and used in g r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s to a s sig n a d ju ste d values f o r computing c o r r e l a t i o n s . Thus, th e grade p o in t average f o r a s t u d e n t from a high school where l i b e r a l grading p r a c t i c e s r e s u l t in i n f l a t e d values would be a d j u s t e d downward bef ore e n t e r i n g i n t o a correlation. The a d ju s t e d average could tak e on t h r e e d i f f e r e n t values depending on which o f t h r e e c l a s s e s o f c o l l e g e s was s e l e c t e d f o r computation. The values as si gned f o r the t h r e e c l a s s e s o f co ll e g e s 14I b i d . , pp, 18-31. 15 Benjamin S. Bloom and Frank R, P e t e r s , The Use o f Academic Pre­ d i c t i o n Scales (New York; The Free Press o f Glencoe, 196671 14 were determined by grading p r a c t i c e s a t the c o l l e g e s . Sim ilarly, a p t i t u d e t e s t sco re s would be a d ju s t e d according to th e average a p t i ­ tude l e v e l s a t th e t h r e e c l a s s e s o f c o l l e g e s . In Bloom and P e t e r s ' s tu dy, c o r r e l a t i o n s averaged from +.70 t o + .8 0, with some c o r r e l a t i o n s achieving l e v e l s o f +.85. 1fi Based on t h e i r f i n d i n g s , Bloom and P e te r s recommended t h a t n a t i o n a l , o r a t l e a s t s ta t e w id e data agencies be e s t a b l i s h e d t o c o l l e c t and pro­ cess high school g r a d e s , a p t i t u d e t e s t s c o r e s , and c o l l e g e grades f o r th e purpose o f providing a more a c c u r a t e method f o r p r e d i c t i n g academic achievement in c o l l e g e . They r e a d i l y admitted however, t h a t such a system would r e q u i r e th e annual c o l l e c t i o n o f m i l l i o n s of r e c o r d s ; and t h a t t h e g r e a t e s t b a r r i e r would be the r e s i s t a n c e o f schools and c o ll e g e s to th e r e l e a s i n g o f d a ta and allowing t h e i r grading s c a l e s to be ad­ ju sted .^ E. F. L in dquist used th e Bloom and P eter s theory as a b a s is f o r a s i m i l a r method o f p r e d i c t i n g c o lle g e grades. Lindquist used data on over 9,000 Iowa c o ll e g e s tu d e n ts i n a comparison o f m u l t i p l e c o r r e ­ l a t i o n s o f ACT sc or es and s c a l e d high school grades versus ACT sc or es and unsealed gr ad es . L indqu is t gained an improvement o f only .008 in the m u lti p le c o r r e l a t i o n s o f .629 f o r sc a le d grades and .621 f o r unsealed grades. 18 A subsequent attem pt by Watley and Merwin to use 16I b i d . , pp. 36-70. 17I b i d . , p. 53. 18 E. F. L in d q u is t, "An Evaluation o f a Technique f o r Scaling High School Grades to Improve P r e d i c ti o n o f Succ es s" , Educ. and Psych. Meas. 23 (Winter 1963): 623-646. 15 th e Bloom and P e te r s concept o f a d j u s t i n g f o r v a r i a t i o n s in high schools 19 a l s o f a i l e d t o produce s i g n i f i c a n t r e s u l t s . More r e c e n t s t u d i e s by Alexander As tin provide some con firmation o f Lavin 's f in d i n g s . 20 A s t i n ' s s t u d i e s ar e notable due t o the l a r g e s i z e and n atio n al scope o f the samples. Three samples were taken. The f i r s t sample included 4,884 s tu d e n ts e n r o l l i n g a t 201 f o u r - y e a r i n s t i ­ t u t i o n s in th e f a l l of 1961. The second sample c o n s is t e d o f 38,681 freshmen e n r o l l i n g a t f i f t y - f i v e i n s t i t u t i o n s in th e f a l l o f 1965. The t h i r d sample was composed o f 36,581 freshmen who e n r o l le d a t 180 i n ­ s t i t u t i o n s in th e f a l l o f 1966. The d a ta generated from t h e s e samples included information from a four-page freshmen information form, a p t i ­ tude t e s t s c o r e s , and follow-up d ata provided by the i n s t i t u t i o n s on freshmen grade p o i n t averages (GPA). The data was used to provide m a te r ia l f o r c o r r e l a t i o n s and r e g r e s s i o n analyses f o r p r e d i c t i o n o f freshmen GPA's and t o gen erate conversion t a b l e s f o r equating scores on various a p t i t u d e t e s t s . 21 A s t i n ' s fin d in g s on freshman GPA's show t h a t women-earn hig he r grades than men, even where men and women were matched on the b a s i s o f previous high school grades and a p t i t u d e s c o r e s . c o r r e l a t e d +.50 f o r men and +.51 f o r women. High school grades Aptitude t e s t score s on th e S c h o l a s t i c Aptitude Test (SAT), o r the American College Test (ACT), 19 Donivan J . Watley & Jack C. Merwin, "An Attempt to Improve Pre­ d i c t i o n o f Colleqe S uccess", Educ. and Psych. Meas. 23 (Winter 1963): 623-646. 20 Alexander W. A s t in , P r e d ic ti n g Academic Performance in C o lle g e , (New York: The Free P r e s s , and London! Collier-Macmillan L t d . , 1971). 21 I b i d . , pp. 268-269. 9 16 o r the National Merit S cholarship Q ualifyin g Test (NMSQT) c o r r e l a t e d with freshman GPA a t +.35 f o r men and +.43 f o r women. In combination, high school grades and a p t i t u d e y i e l d e d c o r r e l a t i o n s o f +.51 f o r men and +.55 f o r women. In equating th e comparative p r e d i c t i v e value of the t h r e e a p t i t u d e t e s t s (SAT,ACT, and NMSQT) composite sc ores were found t o be hig hly i n t e r r e l a t e d , with an average c o r r e l a t i o n o f +.85. Contrary to La vin' s f i n d i n g s , As tin found t h a t only a t r i v i a l amount o f a d d i tio n a l p r e d i c t i v e value was gained when sc or es on s e p a r a t e s u b t e s t s were used r a t h e r than composite s c o re s . 22 Data from s t u d e n t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s provided information on background c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , high school achievements, f u tu r e p la n s , and i n t e r e s t s and personal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Regression a n a l y s i s was performed t o determine which c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a f f e c t academic performance in c o l l e g e . Thirteen c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s were found which s i g n i f i c a n t l y in c r e a se d the accuracy of p r e d i c t i o n a f t e r c o n t r o l l i n g f o r sex, high school grades, academic a b i l i t y and th e s e l e c t i v i t y level of the c o ll e g e att e n d e d . In Table 2, the t h i r t e e n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and p a r t i a l c o r r e l a t i o n s f o r men and women which were s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t (p < .01) ar e l i s t e d . 23 Astin points out t h a t s in c e f our of th e v a r i a b l e s which added to p r e ­ d i c t i o n a f t e r c o n t r o l l i n g f o r high school grades were, in f a c t , v a r i a b l e s involving high school g r a d e s , a n o n l in e a r r e l a t i o n s h i p between per ­ formance in high school and c o l l e g e can be i n f e r r e d . This lends 22I b i d . , pp. 4-12, pp. 291-292. 23I b i d . , pp. 279-280. In th e comparisons l i s t e d , s e l e c t i v i t y level of the c o l l e g e was determined by c a t e g o r i z i n g c o l l e g e s i n t o seven groups according to th e mean scores o f a l l e n t e r i n g s tu d e n ts on th e NMSQT, SAT o r ACT; see pp. 23-31. 17 TABLE 2 ASTIN1S LIST OF STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS THAT PREDICT FRESHMAN GPA AFTER CONTROLLING FOR SEX, HIGH SCHOOL GRADES AND COLLEGE SELECTIVITY P a r t i a l C o r r e l a tio n s o f Men Student C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s V ar iables With GPA Women Drive t o achieve ( s e l f - r a t i n g ) .12 .11 C+ high school average .07 .05 Member o f s c h o l a s t i c honor s o c ie t y .06 .07 Academic a b i l i t y ( s e l f - r a t i n g ) .06 .07 A or A+ high school average .05 .11 Attended Roman C atholic high school .05 .09 Turned in paper or theme l a t e - .1 0 - .1 2 Went to movies -.0 6 -.06 Attended p u b l ic high school - .0 5 -.07 B high school average -.0 5 -.08 B+ high school average -.0 5 -.07 Came l a t e to c l a s s - .0 5 -.05 Made wisecracks in c l a s s - .0 5 -.05 p < .01 credence t o Lavin's argument f o r d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g c o l l e g e underachievers by p r i o r achievement l e v e l s . 24 Astin explored th e r e l a t i o n s h i p between GPA and t h e s t u d e n t ' s r a c e , 24 Ibid., p. 280. 18 r e l i g i o n and socioeconomic background. Astin found t h a t p a r e n t ' s i n ­ come lev el had no r e l a t i o n s h i p to freshman GPA e i t h e r before o r a f t e r c o n t r o l l i n g f o r high school g r a d e s , academic a p t i t u d e o r c o l l e g e selectivity. Students whose p a r e n t s were highly educated obtained s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r freshman GPA's (p < . 0 1 ) , as did Jewish men and C atholic women. Before c o n t r o l l i n g f o r high school grades, a p t i t u d e and c o l l e g e s e l e c t i v i t y , White s tu d e n t s and O r ie n t a ls a t t a i n e d highe r freshman GPA's than Black s t u d e n t s . However, th e d i f f e r e n c e s were not s i g n i f i c a n t a f t e r c o n t r o l s were used, and Astin concludes t h a t d i f f e r ­ ences in academic performance a r e a t t r i b u t a b l e to d i f f e r e n c e s in a b i l i t y and p a s t performance, not t o any e f f e c t s of race p e r s e . 25 Concerns reg ard in g equal access to c o l l e g e o p p o r t u n i t i e s prompted s t u d i e s d i r e c t e d toward p r e d i c t i n g achievement of minority and d i s ­ advantaged s t u d e n t s . Charles Thomas and J u l i a n Stanley reviewed t h i r t y such s tu d i e s to reexamine t h e value o f high school grades and s ta n d a r d iz e d t e s t sc ores f o r p r e d i c t i n g c o l l e g e grades of bla ck s t u d e n t s . Th eir review o f s t u d i e s about academic a p t i t u d e t e s t s r e s u l t e d in the co nclusion t h a t SAT and ACT score s ar e as v a l i d in p r e d i c t i n g f o r black s tu d e n ts as they a r e f o r wh ite s t u d e n t s . However, they con­ cluded t h a t high school grades and rank ar e not as a c c u r a t e in p r e ­ d i c t i n g c o l l e g e grades o f black s tu d e n t s as they a r e f o r w h i te s . S i m ila r r e s u l t s were found in s t u d i e s o f blacks in predominantly black pg c o l l e g e s and f o r blacks in predominantly white c o l l e g e s . 25I b i d . , p. 14, p. 281. pg Charles L. Thomas and J u l i a n C. S t a n l e y , " E f f e c t iv e n e s s o f High School Grades f o r P r e d i c t i n g College Grades o f Black Studen ts: A Review and D is cuss io n", Journal o f Educ. Meas. 6 (Winter 1969): 203-215. For c i t a t i o n s o f s tu d i e s reviewed, see pp. 214-215. 19 In an l a t e r a r t i c l e , S ta n le y discu ssed p r e d i c t i o n o f c o l l e g e grades f o r e d u c a t i o n a l l y disadvantaged in terms of low p r e d i c t e d GPA or p e r ­ s i s t e n c e , to d i s t i n g u i s h the term from express ions such as " c u l t u r a l l y disadvantaged" o r " s o c i a l l y disadvantaged". F u r th e r , he c a utio ns a g a i n s t assuming t h a t a l l persons o f a given r a c e , e t h n i c group or regional group ar e e d u c a t i o n a l l y disadvantaged or academically under­ qualified. S tan ley reviewed 47 s t u d i e s , i n c luding many o f those r e ­ viewed in the e a r l i e r a r t i c l e , and concluded t h a t a p t i t u d e t e s t s and high school grades u s u a ll y p r e d i c t c o l l e g e GPA a t l e a s t as a c c u r a t e l y f o r disadvantaged as f o r r e g u l a r a p p l i c a n t s . 27 Larry Hedges and Kenneth Majer attempted t o improve p r e d i c t i o n o f c o l l e g e grades f o r m in o rity s tu d e n t s by using an adjustment f a c t o r f o r high school c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s in stepw ise m u l tip l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s . Their reasoning was based on previous s t u d i e s by Bloom and P e t e r s , L i n d q u i s t, and Watley and Merwin. No s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t i o n t o m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n was found when the high school f a c t o r was added to high school GPA and SAT s c o r e s . The sample s u b j e c t s c o n s is t e d of 161 Educational Opportunity Program s tu d e n t s e n r o l l e d a t th e Universi ty o f C a l i f o r n i a San Diego campus in 1972-1973, a group l a r g e l y made up o f e t h n i c and r a c i a l m i n o r i t i e s . 28 Concerns regard ing d e c l i n i n g sc ore s on a p t i t u d e t e s t s used as a J u l i a n C. S ta n l e y , " P re d ic t in g College Success of th e Educa­ t i o n a l l y Disadvantaged", Science 171 (1971): 640-647. For c i t a t i o n s o f s t u d i e s reviewed, see pp. 646-647. ^ L a r r y V. Hedges and Kenneth Majer, "An Attempt to Improve Perd i c t i o n of College Success o f Minority Students by A djusting f o r High School C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , " Educ. and Psych. Meas. 36 (Winter 1976): pp. 953-957. 20 b a s i s f o r c o l le g e e n tr an ce led F o r r e s t P r ic e and Suk Kim to t e s t the r e l a t i v e value o f ACT composite score s and high school grades in p r e ­ d i c t i n g c o l le g e grades. A random sample of 93 j u n i o r and s e n i o r b u s i ­ ness s tu d e n ts a t Fort Hays Kansas S t a t e College was used f o r th e study. P r ic e and Kim found a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f + .7 1, and a l s o found t h a t the ACT score c o n t r i b u t e d more to p r e d i c t i o n than high school gr ades. 29 An atte m pt to p r e d i c t s c h o l a s t i c success or f a i l u r e o f c o ll e g e s t u d e n t s through d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s was c a r r i e d out by Vincent Calia a t Boston U niv ersit y J u n io r College. Calia thought t h a t the use of m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n had reached a p o i n t o f providing a maximal amount of information in terms of th e na ture o f th e s t a t i s t i c a l pr oc ed ur es , and f e l t t h a t th e more general p r e d i c t i o n o f success versus a t t r i t i o n f o r academic reasons was o f more c e n t r a l concern. He s e l e c t e d d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s because o f the a b i l i t y to i d e n t i f y which v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i b u t e to i n te r g r o u p v a r i a t i o n , and to f u r t h e r i d e n t i f y the r e l a t i v e weight o f each v a r i a b l e in the determina­ t i o n o f group membership. used f o r the Data from th e e n t e r i n g c l a s s o f 1957 was a n a l y s i s , and c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n was done by using the c l a s s o f 1956 as a second sample. T h i r t y - t h r e e v a r i a b l e s were found t o c a r r y c o n s id e r a b l e weight in d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between th e groups, but none o f the values a t t a i n e d s t a t i s t i c a l s i g n i f i c a n c e following th e a p p l i c a t i o n o f Chi-square t e s t s . Cross v a l i d a t i o n with th e 1956 sample y ie l d e d 37 pe r c ent t o 74 p e r c e n t c o r r e c t p r e d i c t i o n o f group F o r r e s t W. P r ic e and Suk H. Kim, "The A s so c ia tio n o f College Per­ formance with High School Grades and College Entrace Test Scores" , Educ. and Psych. Meas. 36 (Winter 1976): 965-980. 21 membership in th e f our b a t t e r i e s . 30 Discriminant a n a l y s i s was a l s o used by Charles Keenen and June Holmes to p r e d i c t gr ad u atio n , f a i l u r e o r withdrawal from Boston Uni­ v e r s i t y College of Liberal A r ts . The s u b j e c ts c o n s is t e d o f f u l l time freshmen s tu d e n ts who e n te r ed Boston U niversity d i r e c t l y from high school. T h i r t y - f o u r v a r i a b l e s were analyz ed , includ ing f o u r i n t e l ­ lective v a r i a b l e s c o n s i s t i n g o f SAT Math, SAT Verbal, high school rank in c l a s s , and number of high school c r e d i t s ea rned ; and t h i r t y co n ten t v a r i a b l e s which were coded from c o l l e g e a p p l i c a t i o n s ta te m e n t s . The r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t th e a p p l i c a t i o n statem ent v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i ­ buted more to d i s c r i m i n a t i o n than did th e i n t e l l e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s . When the o r i g i n a l s u b j e c t s were c l a s s i f i e d , i n t e l l e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c te d t h i r t y - f i v e per cent o f the c a s e s , while co n te n t v a r i a b l e s c o r r e c t l y p r e d i c t e d s i x t y per cen t o f th e c as es. 31 P r e d i c t i n g Academic Achievement of Probati onary Students Studies att em pting to fin d v a r i a b l e s which can be employed t o p r e d i c t achievement o f co lle g e s tu d e n ts on academic proba tion have been done a t some u n i v e r s i t i e s . B. Orson Tew conducted a study to examine d i f f e r e n c e s in p e r s o n a l ­ i t y v a r i a b l e s between s tu d e n t s who f a i l e d or succeeded academically on Vincent F. C a l i a , "The Use o f Discriminant Analysis in the Pre­ d i c t i o n of S c h o l a s t i c Performance", Personnel and Guidance Journal 39 (Nov. 1960): 184-190. ^ C h a r l e s B. Keenen and June E. Holmes, " P r e d ic t in g Graduation, Withdrawal and F a i l u r e in College by M ultiple Discrim inant A n a l y s is " , Journal o f Educ. Meas. 7 (Summer 1970): 91-95. 22 a f t e r being admitted on p r obatio n, Tew hypothesized t h a t d i f f e r e n t p a t t e r n s o f p e r s o n a l i t y v a r i a b l e s would be found among th e two groups. His sample included 98 freshmen who en tered Utah S t a t e U n iv er sity in 1959 on pro batio na ry s t a t u s . The judgement to admit t h e s e s tu d e n ts on pr ob ation was made on th e b a s is o f s c h o l a s t i c performance in high school Students in th e two groups were compared on 86 v a r i a b l e s by means o f stepw ise m u l t i p l e d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . A sig n ific a n t difference (p < .01) was found f o r a combination o f twelve v a r i a b l e s . The twelve v a r i a b l e s ar e l i s t e d in Table 3 . 33 According to Tew, the stepw ise d is c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s method im­ proves p r e d i c t i o n by roughly 68 p er cen t over chance. To use the method f o r p r e d i c t i o n , th e valu es o f a l l 12 v a r i a b l e s must be known, and must be converted to Z-score s. The Z-scores ar e then compared t o thos e in th e s tu d y , and c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s made depending on whether th e computed Z-scores f a l l above or below th e midpoint o f scores f o r s uccess fu l and f a i l i n g s t u d e n t s . 34 This method, while recognizing t h a t v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i b u t i n g to academic achievement a c t in combination r a t h e r than s i n g l y , would be q u i t e cumbersome to use and r e q u i r e s t h a t th e MMPI and Mooney Problem C h e c k li s t be r o u t i n e l y admin istere d t o s tu d e n ts on pr ob at io n. 32 B. Orson Tew, "The R ela ti o n s h i p o f Measured P e r s o n a l i t y Variables to th e Academic Success o f College Students on Academic Probation: (Ph,D, d i s s e r t a t i o n , Brigham Young U n i v e r s i t y , 1962), pp, 1-6. 33I b i d . , pp. 6-12, pp. 35-43. 3^ I b i d . , pp. 43-45. 23 TABLE 3 COMBINATION OF VARIABLES ISOLATED BY TEW WHICH DISCRIMINATED BETWEEN SUCCESSFUL AND FAILING PROBATIONARY STUDENTS Var iable Differe nc e Religion Successful s tu d e n ts p r e f e r r e d the dominant r e l i g i o n o f th e geographi­ cal area P r e f e r r e d Occupation Successful s tu d e n ts p r e f e r r e d more p r o f e s s io n a l types o f occupations r Successful s t u d e n t s p r e f e r r e d s c ie n c e as a major Major Means of Groups Minnesota M ultip ha sic P e r s o n a l i t y Inventory Successful Failing 2.44 2.93 15.06 12.17 6.44 5.24 Hy Scale ( H y s t e r i a ) 21.69 17.48 Mf Scale ( I n t e r e s t ) 29.06 24.12 Pa Scale (Paranoia) 11.00 8.72 Sc Scale (Schizophrenia) 18.00 14.31 HPD Scale (Health & Physical Development) 2.72 3.26 FVE Scale ( Future: Vocational and E d u c a t io n a l ) 4. 58 3.57 L Scale (Lie) K Scale (Cor re ction Factor) Hs Scale (Hypochandriasis) Mooney Problem C h e c k li s t p < .01 24 Carlton Boxhill conducted a study o f freshmen s tu d e n ts on academic p r o b a t io n , proceeding from previous a t t r i t i o n s tu d e n t s a t Rutgers Co lleg e, an undergraduate men's d i v i s i o n o f Rutgers, The S t a t e Uni­ versity. The previous s tu d i e s had documented an a t t r i t i o n r a t e of approximately twenty per c en t of a l l freshmen in R u tg e r 's C ol leg e, and concluded t h a t about two t h i r d s o f th e a t t r i t i o n was due to academic d i f f i c u l t i e s , e i t h e r from academic dism issa l o r voluntary withdrawal due t o low achievement. No d i f f e r e n c e s on i n t e l l e c t i v e measures had been found between s tu d e n ts on pro b atio n who had improved t h e i r grades, and t hose dismissed f o r academic d e f i c i e n c i e s . Thus, Boxhill decided t o exp lore n o n - i n t e l l e c t i v e measures by using the Minnesota Multiphasic P e r s o n a l i t y Inventory (MMPI). The general hypothesis was t h a t a s p e c ia l s c a l e o f MMPI items could be developed t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e be­ tween freshmen s tu d e n t s on probation who improved t h e i r grades and s t u d e n t s who did not improve and were dismis sed. 35 The s u b j e c t s c o n s i s t e d o f t h i r t y - e i g h t p a i r s of s u c c e ss fu l and unsuccessful s tu d e n t s who had been matched on f i v e c r i t e r i a , includ ing t h e f a c t t h a t they had taken t h e MMPI while on p r o b a tio n . A new s c a l e c a l l e d t h e RD ( r e t a i n e d - d i s m i s s e d ) s c a l e was developed from the responses of th e matched groups on t h e MMPI. T - t e s t s were used to compare r e s p o n s e s , and e ig h te en items were i d e n t i f i e d as d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between the two groups a t the .05 level o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . were combined t o make up th e RD s c a l e . These items The new s c a l e was used to compute an RD s core f o r each s t u d e n t , and i t was found t h a t d i f f e r e n c e s ^ C a r l t o n J . B o x h i l l , "A Special MMPI Scale Related t o th e Reten­ t i o n and Dismissal o f Freshmen College Students on Academic P r o b a ti o n " , (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Ru tger s, The S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1965), pp. 5-10, 25 between s uccess fu l and unsuccessful s tu d e n ts were s i g n i f i c a n t a t the .001 l e v e l . 36 Boxhill completed h is study by c o n s t r u c t i n g an expectancy t a b l e which o u t l i n e d th e chances in 1Q0 f o r r e t e n t i o n or di sm is sa l based on an i n d i v i d u a l ' s s c o re on t h e RD s c a l e , and which could be used as a p r e d i c t i v e device. Boxhill recommended t h a t d i f f e r e n t counseling tre a tm e n ts be o f f e r e d to s tu d e n t s on proba tion according t o t h e i r p r e d ic te d academic s t a t u s . 37 Howard Himmelreich conducted a study to add to understanding th e achievement o f th e s t u d e n t who i s dismissed from c o l l e g e because o f f a i l u r e t o meet academic s ta n d a rd s and then i s l a t e r readm itt ed. The study analyzed t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between f our i n t e l l e c t i v e and twentytwo n o n - i n t e l l e c t i v e v a r i a b l e s t o achievement as measured by GPA in the f i r s t semester following readmiss ion. 38 The s u b j e c t s c o n s i s t e d o f 153 o f 167 suspended s t u d e n ts who had been read m itted to the U n iv e r s it y o f Nebraska f o r th e f a l l 1965 semester. Four instruments were a d m in is te red as p a r t o f th e study. The Pearson product-moment c o r r e l a t i o n was used t o measure th e degree o f r e l a t i o n ­ ship between each o f th e p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s and th e c r i t e r i o n o f GPA, followed by s tepw ise m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n involving s i g n i f i c a n t 36I b t d , , pp. 47-56, 62-68, 37I b i d . , pp. 71-73, 83-84. 38 Howard W. Himmelreich, "A Study of th e Variables I nflue ncing the Achievement o f College Students Readmitted to th e U n iv e r s ity o f Nebraska Following Academic S u sp e n sio n ,1' (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , The / U n i v e r s it y o f Nebraska-Lincoln, 19671, pp. 2-5 r 26 variables. In Table 4, th e c o r r e l a t i o n s ( r ) and s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l s a r e shown f o r each o f t h e s i x v a r i a b l e s found to be s i g n i f i c a n t a f t e r 39 co rrelational analysis. TABLE 4 VARIABLES FOUND BY HIMMELREICH TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY CORRELATED WITH ACHIEVEMENT OF PROBATIONARY STUDENTS r S i g n i f . Level I n v e s t i g a t o r ' s P r e d ic te d GPA .39 .01 Change o f curriculum to ano th er c o l l e g e and Univ. o f Nebraska .34 .01 A t t i t u d e toward School (from C a l i f . Study Methods Survey, CSMS) .24 .01 Planning and System (CSMS) .23 .01 Total CSMS Score .20 .05 -.16 .05 Variable Exhibitionism (from Edwards Personal Prefe rence Inventory) A f t e r stepw ise m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s , f o u r o f t h e v a r i a b l e s were found t o make independent c o n t r i b u t i o n s in accounting f o r v a r ia n ce. The f our v a r i a b l e s were: (1) i n v e s t i g a t o r ' s p r e d i c t e d GPA, (2) change o f cur riculum to ano ther c o l l e g e , (3) a t t i t u d e toward s c h o o l, and (4) Exhibitionism s c a l e . The r e s u l t a n t m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n was + . 5 2 . 4^ Donald S ch us ter conducted a study a t Iowa S t a t e U n iv e r s i ty in 39I b i d . , pp. 58-73. 40I b i d . , pp. 76-77. 27 which one of th e purposes was to p r e d i c t academic achievement o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s who had been academically dismissed and sub sequ en tly r e ­ admitted. The samples c o n s is te d o f 51 s tu d e n ts in 1968-1969 and 52 s t u d e n t s in 1969-1970 who had been re ad m itted a f t e r being academically dismissed. Twenty-six p r e d i c t o r v a r i a b l e s were submitted t o stepw ise r e g r e s s io n a n a l y s i s . Ten v a r i a b l e s which c o n t r ib u t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y t o p r e d i c t i o n (p < .05) were included in the f i n a l a n a l y s i s . v a r i a b l e s were: The ten (1) number o f q u a r t e r s out o f s c h o o l, (2) high school ran k, (3) amount o f high school math, (4) h e a lt h problems, (5) p e r ­ c e n t i l e s core on the Minnesota S c h o l a s t i c Aptitude T e s t , (6) y e a r in c o l l e g e , (7) s core on a loca l math t e s t , (8) s e t t i n g r e a l i s t i c g o a ls , (9) GPA a t dismissal p o i n t , and (10) number of f a i l i n g grades not made up on the academic rec ord. 41 The m u l tip le c o r r e l a t i o n f o r the f i r s t (1968-1969) group was +.80. However, and attem pt to c r o s s - v a l i d a t e th e f in d in g s with the second (1969-1970) group reached a m u l t i p l e c o r r e l a t i o n o f only +.29. S ch uster suggested t h a t th e source o f v a r i a t i o n might have been a lack o f homo­ gen eity in th e two samples, or a lack o f r e l i a b i l i t y in GPA during th e f i r s t q u a r t e r back in school a f t e r d is m i s s a l . 42 Marvin Motz i n v e s t i g a t e d th e p r e d i c t i v e v a l i d i t y o f t h i r t y - n i n e s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s using achievement o f c o l l e g e s t u d e n t s on academic pr ob at ion as th e c r i t e r i o n . The s u b j e c t s f o r th e study were 102 under­ graduate s tu d e n t s on academic pr ob at ion during t h e 1968 f a l l term a t 41 Donald H. S c h u s te r , "An Analysis o f Flunked-Out and Readmitted S t u d e n ts , " J . o f Educ. Meas. 8 (F all 1971): 171-175. 42Ibid., p. 174. 28 Adams S t a t e College. Data was c o l l e c t e d from th e Office o f Student A f f a i r s , th e R e g i s t r a r ' s O f f i c e , and by survey. was analyzed by m u lt ip le l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n . The r e s u l t i n g data Although t h r e e c o r r e ­ l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s were found to be s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e .05 l e v e l , the m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n model using a l l t h i r t y - n i n e v a r i a b l e s y i e l d e d a m u l tip le c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t o f +.35. Motz concluded t h a t t h i s le v e l o f p r e d i c t a b i l i t y was no b e t t e r than chance. 43 Ned S h r e f f l e r conducted a study a t Ohio S t a t e U n iv e r sity which compared freshman s tu d e n ts on proba tion with freshman s tu d e n t s on academic warning (a l e s s s eri ous s t a t u s ) , and freshmen s tu dents in good s ta n d in g . The pr obat ion sample c o n s i s t e d of 194 o f 293 f i r s t q u a r t e r freshmen on academic probation f o r whom ACT p r o f i l e s were a v a i l a b l e . S h r e f f l e r compared t h e academic achievement o f probationary s tu d e n ts with and wit hout ACT p r o f i l e s and found no reason to b e lie v e th e groups d i f f e r e d . The o t h e r groups in the sample c o n s is t e d o f 100 randomly s e l e c t e d s tu d e n t s on academic warning, and 300 randomly s e l e c t e d s tu d e n t s in good s ta n d in g . 44 Comparisons o f s e v e n t y - e i g h t v a r i a b l e s from ACT p r o f i l e s by means o f d is c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s is y i e l d e d s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between the groups a t th e .05 le ve l on f i f t e e n v a r i a b l e s . The f i f t e e n v a r i a b l e s were a b l e t o s u c c e s s f u l l y c l a s s i f y s i x t y - n i n e pe r ce nt o f th e freshmen on p r o b a tio n , twenty-two per c ent o f th e warning group, and eighty-two 43 Marvin D. Motz, " P r e d i c t i n g Academic Achievement o f Students on Academic Probation a t Adams S t a t e Colleg e, " (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Univ. o f Northern Colorado, 1969), pp. 2 - 5 , 30-38, 52-55, 85-89. 44 Ned L. S h r e f f l e r , "A Study o f a Means f o r the Early I d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f P o t e n t i a l High Academic Risk College S t u d e n ts " , (Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Ohio S t a t e Univ., 1976), pp. 5 -7, pp. 55-57. 29 per c ent of th e good s ta n d in g group. A d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s is compari­ son o f freshmen who were dismissed and freshmen who were n6t dismissed y i e l d e d f o u r te e n v a r i a b l e s which were s i g n i f i c a n t a t the .05 l e v e l . These fo u rteen v a r i a b l e s were a b le to c l a s s i f y dismissed and nondismissed s tu d e n ts c o r r e c t l y in e i g h t y - n i n e per c e n t o f th e cas es . 45 The two l i s t s of s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s a r e shown in Table 5. From the a n a l y s i s , S h r e f f l e r c r e a t e d a p r o f i l e o f the probation study in comparison to s tu d e n t s on warning or in good s ta n d in g . The s tu d e n t on probatio n has a lower high school GPA, lower high school r ank, and lower ACT English and s o c ia l s c ie n ce s c o r e s . Probationary s tu d e n ts had l e s s f r e q u e n t l y taken high school fo re i g n language or been a c t i v e i n high school e x t r a c u r r i c u l a r music a c t i v i t i e s . More o f the prob ation s tu d e n ts expressed a need f o r help in math, while fewer expressed a need f o r help in w r i t i n g s k i l l s . The pr ob ation groups was composed o f more o l d e r s tu d e n t s and more p a r t - t i m e s tu d e n t s than the warning o r good s tand ing groups. 45I b i d . , pp. 75-85. 46I b i d . , p. 93. 46 30 TABLE 5 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES IN SHREFFLER'S DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Probati on/Warning/Good Standi ng Di smi ssed/Non-di smi ssed High school GPA ACT Math sco re ACT English s core I n t e r e s t in c r e d i t by exam in s o c i a l s t u d i e s High school rank Date ACT taken I n t e r e s t in c r e d i t by exam in social studies High School GPA P a r t i c i p a t i o n in H.S. a t h l e t i c s Degree o f c e r t a i n t y o f major Birthdate Sex Need help in math s k i l l s Need personal counseling Need help with w r i t i n g s k i l l s Type o f H.S. program Need help f in d i n g work ACT Social Sciences sco re ACT Social Sciences score Years o f H.S. sc ie nce Type o f c o ll e g e s e l e c t e d I n t e r e s t in c r e d i t by exam in math Foreign language in H.S. % o f H.S. same race P a r t i c i p a t i o n in H.S. music F u l l / p a r t time attend an ce Factors Associated with Academic F a i l u r e Reasons f o r th e poor academic achievement of c o lle g e s tu d e n t s on academic probatio n have been a f r e q u e n t t o p i c o f stu dy. Harold Husa compared succ es sfu l and unsuccessful s tu d e n t s a t Northern I l l i n o i s U n iv e r sity who had been read m itt ed a f t e r academic d i s m i s s a l . The s u b j e c t s c o n s i s t e d o f f i f t y - s e v e n s tu d e n t s who were s u ccess fu l in r a i s i n g t h e i r grades a f t e r r ead m ission ; and 101 s tu d e n t s who f a i l e d t o r a i s e t h e i r grades and were dismissed a second time. Twenty-four 31 v a r i a b l e s were compared by Chi s q u a r e , F - t e s t s , and t - t e s t s . The t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a r e l i s t e d in Table 6. 47 TABLE 6 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES IN HUSA'S COMPARISON OF SUCCESSFUL AND UNSUCCESSFUL STUDENTS High School Rank by q u a r t i l e s T r a n s f e r s t a t u s a t admission C er ta in ACE scores C a l i f o r n i a T e st o f P e r s o n a l i t y Kuder Pref er en ce Record-Vocational F i r s t semester c o l l e g e GPA Cumulative c o l l e g e GPA Major f i e l d GPA a t f i r s t o r only dismis sal Experience between di sm issa l and readmission Campus r e s id e n c e Semester of dism is sa l Total hours o f c r e d i t a t dism is sa l Marital s t a t u s Louis Ninegar gather ed data on approximately 500 s t u d e n t s a t Kearney S t a t e College (Nebraska) who had been academically dismissed from 1961 to 1964. He found t h a t t h r e e - f o u r t h s o f the s u b j e c t s were in the lower h a l f o f t h e i r high school grad uating c l a s s , with more than o n e - t h i r d in t h e lower q u a r t e r . At the time o f applying f o r Harold E. Husa, "An Analysis o f Various C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s Related t o th e Subsequent Success o f Students Readmitted to Northern I l l i n o i s U niversity Following Academic D i s m is s a l, " (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Michigan S t a t e Univ., 1961, a b s t r a c t e d in Diss. A b s tra c ts I n t . : 22/06-A), pp. 1874-1875. 32 admission, p r i n c i p a l s o r guidance couns elors had p r e d i c t e d average o r below average chances f o r success in c o l l e g e . I n t e l l i g e n c e t e s t scores were below average th e f i f t i e t h p e r c e n t i l e f o r o n e -fo urth o f th e sub­ jects. From q u e s ti o n n a i r e s mailed to each s u b j e c t , Ninegar found t h a t lack o f adequate a d v i s i n g , lack o f study s k i l l s , and lack o f s e l f d i s c i p l i n e were th e c h i e f causes which led t o d i s m i s s a l , as l i s t e d by the re sponde nts. Ninety p er cen t o f the men and s i x t y - f i v e p er cen t o f the women expressed a d e s i r e to r e t u r n t o c o l l e g e . 48 Kenneth Kersh compared pr ob atio na ry s tu d e n ts a t the U n iv e r sity o f Arkansas who subsequently succeeded o r f a i l e d academically. v a r i a b l e s were i n d i v i d u a l l y co ns idered by means o f t - t e s t s . Sixteen The only v a r i a b l e s which proved to be s i g n i f i c a n t were th e f i r s t seme ster c o l le g e GPA, and cumulative hours a t f i r s t p r o b a t io n . Although r e s u l t s were not s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t , Kersh a l s o concluded t h a t changing the major following probatio n enhances chances f o r r eco ver y, and t h a t s tu d e n ts l i v i n g in r e s id e n c e h a l l s o r f r a t e r n i t y / s o r o r i t y houses have a b e t t e r chance o f succeeding. 49 The p e r s o n a l i t y makeup o f s tu d e n t s on academic pro ba tio n was th e s u b j e c t o f a study by Charles Smith and Miriam Winterbottom. Through ex per ience in co unseling pro bationa ry s t u d e n ts a t P r in c e to n , 48 Louis C. Ninegar, "Academic Suspension a t Kearney S t a t e College". (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n iv e r sit y o f Nebraska Teachers College, now Universi ty o f Nebraska-Lincoln, 1965), a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A bstra ct s I n t . : 26/01-A, pp. 173-174. 49 Kenneth G. Kersh, "Academic Progress o f Arkansas Students Sub­ sequent to Placement on S c h o l a s t i c P r o b a tio n , " (Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , U n iv e r s i ty o f Arkansas, 1966), a b s t r a c t e d i n P i s s . A b s tra c ts I n t . : 27/03-A, p. 604. 33 the author s had noted t h a t many o f te n appeared i n d i f f e r e n t , missed appointments, and did not avail themselves o f remedial s e r v i c e s . The s u b j e c ts of t h e i r study c o n s is t e d o f f o r t y - n i n e sophomore l i b e r a l a r t s stu d e n ts on prob ation who were matched with non-probation s tu d e n t s on SAT s c o r e s , high school gr a d e s, and type o f secondary school attended ( p u b li c or p r i v a t e ) . Each s tu d e n t answered two c o n f i d e n t i a l q u es tio n - n a i r e s , and responses were analyzed by t - t e s t s . 50 Based on th e r e s u l t s , Smith and Winterbottom concluded t h a t s tu d e n ts on probation did not have r e a l i s t i c academic e x p e c t a t i o n s , sin c e they expected to make s i g n i f i c a n t l y h igh er grades than t h e i r matched c o u n te r p a rts even though ac tu al grades were s i g n i f i c a n t l y worse. Probation s tu d e n t s did not d i f f e r from matched c o u n te r p a rts on study h a b it s o r p a r t i c i p a t i o n in e x t r a c u r r i c u l a r a c t i v i t i e s o r j o b s , but s i g n i f i c a n t l y more p r o b a t io n a ry s tu d e n ts perceived the sources o f t h e i r problems as r e l a t e d to t h e i r c u r r e n t courses o r to lack of adequate p r e p a r a t i o n in high s ch oo l. Probation s tu d e n t s were a l s o s i g n i f i c a n t l y more l i k e l y to fin d t h e i r courses l e s s i n t e r e s t i n g , more d i f f i c u l t , and were more l i k e l y to f a l l behind in the coursework. Probation s tu d e n t s s e r i o u s l y considered leaving c o l le g e s i g n i f i c a n t l y more than th e matched s t u d e n t s , although no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s e x i s t e d in t h e i r s a t i s f a c t i o n with s o c ia l l i f e and e x t r a c u r r i c u l a r activities. In summary, Smith and Winterbottom concluded t h a t the apparent apathy o f p r obationa ry s t u d e n t s was p r i m a r i l y due t o a lack o f p o s i t i v e m o t iv a t io n , and th e discouragement o f disconfirmed ^ C h a r l e s P. Smith and Miriam T. Winterbottom, " P e r s o n a l i t y Char­ a c t e r i s t i c s o f College Students on Academic P r o b a tio n , " Journal o f P e r s o n a l i t y 38 (Sept. 1970): pp. 380-384. 34 expectations. 51 A comparison o f academic performance of working and nonworking p r obatio na ry s tu d e n ts was done by J e r r y Augsburger a t Northern I l l i n o i s U n i v e r s i ty . Augsburger's underlying purpose was t o t e s t the reasonablen ess o f a u n i v e r s i t y p o lic y which discouraged s tu d e n t s on pro ba tio n from working a t jobs on o r o f f campus. Information on work schedules was obtaine d by q u e s t i o n n a i r e , and GPA's were obtained from u n i v e r s i t y r e c o rd s . Questionna ires were retu rn ed by n i n e t y - s i x per ce nt o f the f u l l time undergraduate s t u d e n t s on p r obatio n. A compari­ son of GPA's by a n a l y s i s o f va riance r e s u l t e d in no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f ­ erence between nonworking s tu d e n ts and those who worked twenty hours per week o r l e s s . S i g n i f i c a n t l y lower GPA's were found f o r s tu d e n t s who worked more than twenty hours per week. 52 A study by John S a f a r ik analyzed the e f f e c t s o f a r u l e a t Chico S t a t e College ( C a l i f o r n i a ) which l im ite d th e number o f hours s tu d e n ts were allowed to c a r r y w ithout permission. When an e a r l i e r study i n ­ d i c a t e d t h a t s tu d e n ts c a r ry in g more than s ix t e e n hours did not earn more grades l e s s than 2 . 0 , the r u l e was e lim in a te d f o r 1969-70. S a f a r i k ' s sample c o n s is t e d o f a l l s tu d e n ts e n r o l l e d f o r Fall 1965 and Fall 1969, divided i n t o f our groups o f overload s tu d e n t s above and below 2 . 0 , and non-overload s tu d e n ts above and below 2 .0. In both y e a r s , under t h e r u l e and withou t the r u l e , overload s tu d e n ts more 51 I b i d . , pp. 386-389. 5? J e r r y D. Augsburger, An Analysis o f Academic Performance o f Working and Non-Working Students on Academic Probation a t Northern I l l i n o i s U n i v e r s i t y , (Bethesda, MD.: ERIC Documents Reproduction S e r v ic e , ED 053 668, 1971), pp. 2 - 7 , 12-18. 35 f r e q u e n tl y earned grades o f 2 . 0 o r higher than grades below 2.0 (p < .001). The incidences o f grades below 2.0 in 1955 was e i g h t per ce nt f o r overload s t u d e n t s , and s ix t e e n p e r c e n t f o r non-overload students. In 1969, one pe r ce nt o f th e overload s tu d e n ts earned grades below 2 . 0 , compared to f o u rt e e n per c en t o f the non-overload s t u d e n t s . 53 Jane Brown, e t a l . , conducted a study to determine the e f f e c t o f academic proba tion on t h e s c h o l a s t i c performance o f marginal f r e s h ­ men s tu d e n t s a t Georgia Southern College. The s u b j e c t s included 128 randomly s e l e c t e d freshman s tu d e n ts with p r e d i c t e d GPA's o f 1.7 to 1.99 who a tt en d ed f u l l time during 1971-72. All freshmen s tu d e n ts a r e e n r o l l e d in e s s e n t i a l l y th e same course in a core curriculum. The s tu d e n ts were divided i n t o f o u r groups o f equal academic a b i l i t y as measured by SAT s c o r e s : males on pr ob at ion and males not on proba­ t i o n ; females on proba tion and females not on p r o b atio n . T - t e s t s were used t o compare GPA's and mean gains from f a l l t o w i n t e r semester. The mean gains were s i g n i f i c a n t f o r males and females on p r o b a tio n , and were not s i g n i f i c a n t f o r non-probation s t u d e n t s . The author s concluded t h a t some degree o f motivation could be a t t r i b u t e d t o being placed on academic p r o b a t i o n , although they did not disc uss th e p o s s i b i l i t y o f r e g r e s s i o n e f f e c t s c o n t r i b u t i n g to th e r e s u l t s . 54 Terry Procuick and Lawrence Breen conducted a study to examine th e r e l a t i o n s h i p between locus o f c o ntrol and two academic v a r i a b l e s : 53 John G. S a f a r i k , "A R e te s t o f I n s t i t u t i o n a l Regulation o f Aca­ demic Load," C a l i f . Journal o f Educ. Research 23, tNov. 1972), pp. 224-227. 54 Jane L. Brown, e t a l . , "Academic Prob ation ary S ta tu s and College Student Marginal A b i l i t y " , I n t e l l e c t 102, (Feb. 1974): 313-314. study h a b i t s and a t t i t u d e s , and c o l l e g e academic performance. The hypothesis was t h a t s tu d e n ts with i n t e r n a l locus o f contr ol would be more success fu l than s t u d e n t s with ex te r n a l locus of c o n t r o l . The s u b j e c t s c o n s is te d o f e i g h t y - n i n e psychology s tu d e n t s a t the Univer­ s i t y o f Manitoba who v o l u n t a r i l y p a r t i c i p a t e d in th e s tu d y . were obtained from the R e g i s t r a r . GPA's The s u b je c t s were adm inist er ed Levenson's I n t e r n a l , Powerful Others and Chance s c a l e s (an a d a p t a ti o n o f R o t t e r ' s I-E S c a l e ) ; and th e Brown and Holtzman Survey of Study Habits (SSHA). No d i f f e r e n c e s were found between males and females. Pearson product-moment c o r r e l a t i o n s o f th e I n t e r n a l s c a l e with SSHA and GPA were s i g n i f i c a n t . The Powerful Others s c a l e c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i ­ f i c a n t l y with SSHA, and th e Chance s c a l e c o r r e l a t e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y with both SSHA and GPA. The au th ors concluded t h a t s tu d e n ts who received reinforcem ents from powerful o t h e r s o r who f e l t t h a t t h e i r successes and f a i l u r e s were due t o chance, luck or f a t e had poorer study h a b i t s and lower l e v e l s o f achievement than s t u d e n ts who found i n t e r n a l sources f o r re inforc em en t. 55 Jae Choi and Joseph Malak surveyed f a c u l t y members a t Frostburg S t a t e College (Vermont) to determine f a c u l t y perceptions o f reasons f o r poor performance o f s tu d e n t s who r ec eive d f a i l i n g grades. Faculty were asked t o respond t o twenty-one o b j e c t i v e items on a f i v e p o i n t s c a l e ranging from s tr o n g l y agree to s t r o n g l y d i s a g r e e . Only f o r t y - t h r e e per cen t o f th e q u e s ti o n n a i r e s were r e t u r n e d , b u t a l l departments 55 Terry J . Procuick and Lawrence J . Breen, "Locus o f Con trol, Study Habits and A t t i t u d e s , and College Academic Performance," Journal o f Psych. 88, (Sept. 1974), 91-95. 37 were represented. A rank o r d e r l i s t i n g o f th e top te n responses i s shown in Table 7 . 5® TABLE 7 REASONS FOR POOR ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE RANKED BY FACULTY IN CHOI AND MALAK'S SURVEY Reasons in Rank Order 1. I n a b i l i t y t o s y n th e s i z e f a c t u a l and conceptual p r i n c i p l e s 2. I n a b i l i t y to apply p r i n c i p l e s in analygous s i t u a t i o n s 3. I n a b i l i t y to perform adequately on major exams 4. I n a b i l i t y to w r i t e e f f e c t i v e essays 5. F a i l u r e to a t t e n d c l a s s r e g u l a r l y 6. I n a b i l i t y to complete assignments on time 7. I n a b i l i t y t o comprehend conceptual p r i n c i p l e s 8. I n s u f f i c i e n t p r e r e q u i s i t e knowledge and s k i l l s 9. I n a b i l i t y t o ask q u e s ti o n s in c l a s s 10. Lack o f p a r t i c i p a t i o n in c l a s s d is c u s s io n Michael K e lle r adm in is tered a survey to i d e n t i f y th e f a c t o r s which freshmen on academic pro b atio n a t Miami U n iv er sity (Ohio) be­ l i e v e d to be most r e s p o n s i b le f o r t h e i r poor grad es. The sample c o n s is t e d o f 375 freshmen who earned l e s s than a 2. 0 GPA during t h e i r 56 Joe W. Choi and Joseph F. Malak, "F acu lty P er ce ption s o f Poor Academic Performance o f S t u d e n ts , " Journal o f College Student Personnel 16 (July 1975), pp. 317-318. 38 f i r s t term on campus in th e Fall o f 1977. The responses were sub­ m it te d t o f a c t o r a n a l y s i s in o r d e r t o i s o l a t e p a t t e r n s o f i n t e r c o r ­ relation. Nine s i g n i f i c a n t c a t e g o r i e s were found (p = .05): (1) In ­ s t r u c t i o n , (2) Study and M otiva tion , (3) I n s t i t u t i o n a l I n c o m p a t i b i l i t y , (4) Educational Background, (5) Personal F r u s t r a t i o n , (6) Advising and Counseling, (7) Personal Problems, (8) Fina nc es , and (9) I n t e r e s t in Courses. In Table 8 , the s i x t e e n primary f a c t o r s which s tu d e n ts r e p o r t e d as being most r e s p o n s i b le f o r t h e i r poor achievement are listed. Among the s i x t e e n r e a s o n s , nine were r e l a t e d t o study and motiv atio n. 57 Treatment Programs f o r Students On Academic Probation Considerable a t t e n t i o n in r e c e n t y e a r s has been given t o t r e a t ­ ment programs designed to a s s i s t s t u d e n t s on academic pr o b atio n in improving t h e i r grades. The m ajori ty o f th e t r e atm e n ts have c o n s is t e d of c o u n s e l in g , study s k i l l s i n s t r u c t i o n , or a combination of both. Karl Rickabaugh r e p o r t e d on the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f an E f f i c i e n t Study Program sponsored by the Counseling Center a t the U n iv e r sity o f Utah. The program was an i n t e g r a t e d approach combining d i d a c t i c p r e ­ s e n t a t i o n o f s tu dy methods and group d is c u s s io n s c e n t e r i n g on i s s u e s of e d u c a t i o n a l - v o c a t i o n a l needs and p e r s o n a l - s o c i a l adjustment. The tre a tm e n t group c o n s i s t e d o f t w e n ty - f i v e s tu d e n ts who v o l u n t a r i l y p a r t i c i p a t e d in E f f i c i e n t study groups during th e autumn o f 1968 Michael J . K e l l e r , Factors A f fe c t in g th e Poor Academic Achieve­ ment o f F i r s t Term Freshmen a t Miami U n i v e r s i t y : Survey Report (A rlin g to n , VA: ERIC Document Reproduction S e r v ic e , ED 154 763, 1978), pp. 1-16. 39 TABLE 8 SIXTEEN PRIMARY FACTORS LISTED BY KELLER'S RESPONDENTS AS BEING MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR POOR ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT Factor Mean F a i l u r e to schedule time well 2.98 Study &Motivation Poor study h a b its 2.93 Study &Motivation D i f f i c u l t y ta king examinations 2.8 3 Instruction F a i l u r e to l e a r n how to study well 2.71 Study Required courses not my choice 2.67 I n t e r e s t in Courses F a i l u r e to keep up in courses 2.59 Study Lack o f i n t e r e s t in courses 2.58 I n t e r e s t in courses I n a b i l i t y t o co n c e n tr a te 2.58 Study To$ few examinations 2.57 Instruction F a i l u r e to dis c u s s d i f f i c u l t i e s with i n s t r u c t o r s 2.53 Advising & Counseling l a c k o f personal d i s c i p l i n e 2.52 Study &Motivation Study c o n d iti o n s in r e s id e n c e h a l l s 2.50 Study &Motivation U n r e a l i s t i c id ea o f amount of study necessary 2.44 Study &Motivation Too much time s pe nt on e x t r a ­ curricular ac tiv itie s 2.43 Study &Motivation Examinations did not f a i r l y t e s t knowledge 2.42 Instruction Nonstimulating i n s t r u c t o r s 2.41 Instruction quarter. Category &Motivation &Motivation &Motivation Control group I c o n s i s t e d o f f o u rt e e n s tu d e n ts who expressed a d e s i r e t o p a r t i c i p a t e in E f f i c i e n t Study but did not fo llow through. . * ’• 40 Control group II c o n s i s t e d o f f o u rte e n s t u d e n t s who chose not to p a r t i c i p a t e in th e program. Control group I I I c o n s is te d of a random sample o f f i f t y s tu d e n t s who did respond t o a l e t t e r from the Coun­ s e l i n g Cen ter.^* Two measures o f achievement were employed in t - t e s t s t o analyze t h e e f f e c t o f th e tr e a tm e n t c o n d i t i o n s : (1) GPA obtaine d during the q u a r t e r following t r e a t m e n t , and (2) p r e - p o s t d i f f e r e n c e s in GPA before and during th e q u a r t e r a f t e r t r e a t m e n t . All between-group comparisons were in f a v o r o f the E f f i c i e n t Study tre a tm e n t group. S i g n i f i c a n t gains in achievement (.05 l e v e l ) were made by th e e x p e r i ­ mental group in comparison t o Control group I , pro ba tionary s tu dents who expressed an i n t e r e s t in p a r t i c i p a t i n g but did not follow through. A g r e a t e r per centage o f th e n o n - p a r t i c i p a t i n g pr oba tionary s tu d e n t s withdrew from school o r received f a i l i n g grades than p a r t i c i p a t i n g students. Rickabaugh concluded t h a t th e s h o r t - te r m i n t e g r a t e d approach used by t h e Counseling Center did help motivated s tu d e n t s t o r e a l i z e academic recovery. 59 Robert Berg conducted a study a t Rock Valley College ( I l l i n o i s ) to determine the r e l a t i o n s h i p between group counseling and behavioral change in s tu d e n ts on academic p r o b a tio n . Thirty-two pr ob ationa ry s tu d e n ts who r ec eived group counseling during th e second q u a r t e r were matched with a control group o f non-counseled proba tion s tu d e n ts CO Karl Rickabaugh, E f f e c tin g Academic Recovery: An E f f i c i e n t Study Program P i l o t Study, (Bethesda, MD., ERIC Document Reproduction S e r v . , ED 0'55“2 2 5 7 T 9 6 f y r p p . 3-6 59I b i d . , pp. 6-8. 41 according t o s e x , age, GPA and ACT composite s c o r e s . No v a s t d i f f e r ­ ences appeared between the groups as p e r t a i n e d to course load o r w i t h ­ drawal from c o l l e g e . Analysis by t - t e s t s revealed no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in achievement, although gains were c o n s i s t e n t l y g r e a t e r f o r th e experimental group. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were found on s e l f concept as measured by scores on an instrument designed f o r the stu dy. S i g n i f i c a n t changes in behavior were found among th e e x p e r i ­ mental group members, who showed in crease d t o l e r a n c e and a b i l i t y to r e l a t e t o o t h e r s on th e Semantic D i f f e r e n t i a l Form (.01 l e v e l ) . Pre­ post t e s t s using th e Group Behavior Inventory rev ea led a s i g n i f i c a n t fin s h i f t (.05 l e v e l ) toward p a i r i n g among th e counseled experimental s. The e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f a volu ntary academic r e h a b i l i t a t i o n program f o r pr obatio na ry s tu d e n ts was measured by S t e r l i n g Church a t Arizona S t a t e U n i v e r s i ty . Twenty-eight s tu d e n ts in the College o f Liberal Arts were divide d i n t o two groups. The f i r s t p a r t i c i p a t e d in an improvement seminar during t h e f i r s t se mester 1969-70, and the second group was asked t o w a it u n t i l a l a t e r d a t e . The seminar provided d is c u s s io n of t o p i c s r e l a t e d t o academic s u c c e s s , and was designed to u t i l i z e s tu d e n t s e r v i c e agencies a lr e a d y e x i s t i n g on the campus. Analysis o f v a r ia n c e was employed t o measure group d i f f e r e n c e s a f t e r t r e a t m e n t. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were found in academic ach iev e­ ment, in sc ores on the Brown-Holtzman SSHA, o r on sc or es obtained on Robert C. B e r g . , "The E f f e c t o f Group Counseling on Students Placed on Academic Probation a t Rock Valley College, Rockford, I l l i n o i s , 1966-67," Ed.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Northern I l l i n o i s U n i v e r s i t y , 1968, a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A b s tra c ts I n t . : 29/01-A), pp. 115-116 42 B i l l s ' Index o f Adjustment and Values.*^ At th e U n iv e r s i ty o f Roche ster, Marquita West conducted a study comparing pr obationa ry s t u d e n t s who did or did n o t see a coun selo r. All p r obationa ry s tu d e n t s r ec eived a l e t t e r from th e Dean o f Students asking them t o make an appointment with a counselor. The s u b j e c t s , s i x t y randomly s e l e c t e d s t u d e n t s , were interviewed by West, who was not a member o f t h e Counseling Center s t a f f and was unaware i f th e s t u d e n t s had seen a counselor o r not. Judgements were made on the b a s i s o f the in terv iew on family background, motivation f o r c o lle g e and emotional h e a l t h . files. GPA and SAT score s were obtained from s tu d e n t Ratings t e s t s by Chi-square r ev ea led no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s CO between those who had o r had not seen a coun selor . Robert Kaye i n v e s t i g a t e d the e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f a combined t r e a t ­ ment program c o n s i s t i n g o f in d iv i d u a l c o u n s elin g , group guidance, and go s tu dy s k i l l s t r a i n i n g . A group o f t h i r t y - s i x f a i l i n g freshmen a t The U n iv e r sity o f Connecticut with GPA's o f 1.2 o r lower were r a n ­ domly s e l e c t e d and divide d i n t o experimental and control groups. The s t u d e n ts had been p r eviously matched according to s e x , SAT s c o r e s , S t e r l i n g R. Church, "The E f f e c t s o f an Academic R e h a b i l i t a t i o n Program on College Academic Probation S t u d e n t s " , Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Arizona S t a t e Univ., 1970, a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A b s tra c ts I n t . : 31/04-A pp. 1571-1572. CO Marquita West, "Sophomore Students on Academic P roba tion: A Comparison o f Users and Nonusers o f a U niversity Counseling F a c i l i t y " . Journal o f th e Amer. College Health Assoc. 19 (April 1971): 235-238. CO Robert A. Kaye, "The E f f e c ti v e n e ss o f a Guidance-CounselingStudy S k i l l s Treatment Program on th e Academic Achievement o f F a ili n g College Freshmen," Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , The Univ. o f C onn ec ticut, 1971 a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A b s tra c ts I n t . : 32/01-A, p. 180. 43 GPA and high school rank. T - t e s t s and Chi-square were used t o mea­ sure d i f f e r e n c e s a f t e r tr e a t m e n t . The second semester GPA was s i g n i ­ f i c a n t l y h ig h e r f o r th e experimental group (p < . 0 1 ) . Seventeen per ce nt o f th e experimental group dismissed from the U n i v e r s i t y , compared t o f i f t y per cent o f th e control group (p < .0 5). 64 Stephen Anthony s tu d i e d s ix t y - o n e freshmen and sophomore females on academic proba tion a t the U niversity of P i t t s b u r g h . The s u b j e c t s were divided i n t o two types based on scores on th e SSHA. Type I s tu d e n ts were diagnosed as lacking p r o f i c i e n t study s k i l l s , and Type II s tu d e n ts were diagnosed as having adequate s k i l l s . groups and a co n t r o l group were formed. a study s k i l l s course. Two experimental Treatment group A r eceiv ed Treatment group B p a r t i c i p a t e d in a s e l f - understanding program which focused on problems o f i d e n t i t y , s e l f concept and r e l a t i o n s h i p s with o t h e r s . Anthony had hypothesized t h a t Type I s tu d e n t s would b e n e f i t more from study s k i l l s i n s t r u c t i o n , and t h a t Type II s tu d e n ts would b e n e f i t more from g r e a t e r s e l f under­ s ta n d i n g . Comparisons o f academic achievement with th e c ontrol group i n d i c a t e d t h a t both tre at ments had a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on th e academic improvement o f both Type I and Type I I s t u d e n t s . No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were found in comparing only Type I and Type II s t u d e n t s . Anthony concluded t h a t t h e s u p p o r tiv e program helped meet th e needs o f low a c h i e v e r s . ^ 64I b i d . , p. 180 Stephen J . Anthony, "The E f f e c t s o f a Study S k i l l s Course and a Self-U nderstanding Program on Low Achieving College S t u d e n t s , Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Univ. o f P i t t s b u r g h , 1971, a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A bstra ct s I n t . : 32/04-A, p. 1843. 44 Other tr e a tm e n t programs have a l s o re vealed s i g n i f i c a n t i n ­ c r e a s e s in achievement f o r pr o b atio n a ry s t u d e n t s . James MacArthur found s i g n i f i c a n t improvement a t Brigham Young U n iv e r sity among pro batio na ry s tu d e n t s who p a r t i c i p a t e d in an academic r e h a b i l i t a t i o n program which included study s k i l l s , c a r e e r o r i e n t a t i o n and i n t e r ­ personal s k i l l s d e v e l o p m e n t . ^ Barbara Green r e p o r te d t h a t s i g n i f i ­ c a n t l y b e t t e r grades were a t t a i n e d by probation s tu d e n ts a t Purdue who e l e c t e d t o p a r t i c i p a t e in a tr e a tm e n t program which combined s tudy s k i l l s a d v i c e , vo catio nal e x p l o r a t io n and goal s e t t i n g e x e r c i s e s . 67 Academic Achievement and Retention A c e n t r a l concern in stu dying s tu d e n ts on academic pro b atio n i s th e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f academic achievement to r e t e n t i o n . Numerous s t u d i e s have i n d i c a t e d t h a t poor grades c o n t r i b u t e heavily t o c o l l e g e student a t t r i t i o n . In 1962, John Summerskill summarized e x i s t e n t re se arch f in d i n g s on s t u d e n t a t t r i t i o n . t h r e e ty p e s : The n a t u r e o f th e re se arch reviewed was o f a t t r i t i o n r a t e s , reasons f o r le aving c o l l e g e , and c o r r e l a t i o n s between a t t r i t i o n o r p e r s i s t e n c e with s e l e c t e d p r e d i c t o r variables. Summerskill found t h a t accuracy in c a l c u l a t i n g a t t r i t i o n r a t e s was d i f f i c u l t to determine because o f v a r i a t i o n s in d e f i n i t i o n s ^ Ja m e s D. MacArthur, "A D i a g n o s t i c - P r e s c r i p t i o n Treatment Program f o r Students on Academic Probation a t Brigham Young U n i v e r s i t y , " Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Brigham Young Univ., 1976, a b s t r a c t e d in P i s s . A b s tr a c ts I n t . : 38/01-A, p. 221. 67Barbara C. Green, "An I n v e s t i g a t i o n of Treatment Programs f o r U niversity Students on Academic P r o b a tio n " , Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , Purdue U niv., 1976, a b s t r a c t e d i n P i s s . A bs tra cts I n t . : 37/10-A, p. 6273. 45 o f dropo uts , and v a r i a t i o n s in procedures from c o l l e g e to c o l l e g e . A f t e r reviewing some t h i r t y - f i v e s t u d i e s , Summerskill concluded t h a t American c o l le g e s l o s t about h a l f o f t h e i r s t u d e n t s in the four y e a r s following m a t r i c u l a t i o n . Approximately f o r t y per c ent graduated w ithin fo u r y e a r s , and i t was es tim ated t h a t another twenty per c e n t graduated CO from some c o l l e g e a t a l a t e r time. Among f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d as reasons f o r le aving c o l l e g e , Summers k i l l r e p o rte d t h a t academic f a c t o r s c a r r i e d heavy weight in determining p e r s i s t e n c e in c o l l e g e . Numerous s t u d i e s found t h a t lower high school grades and lower a p t i t u d e t e s t scores were s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d to higher l e v e l s o f a t t r i t i o n . Academic f a i l u r e was t y p i c a l l y c i t e d as the leading s i n g l e cause o f a t t r i t i o n , accounting f o r approximately t h i r t y t h r e e per cent o f th e dropout r a t e . Summerskill noted t h a t an urgency e x i s t e d f o r f u r t h e r re se arch on academic f a i l u r e , based on the premise t h a t th e problem must be viewed as a f a i l u r e on th e p a r t o f th e ins t i t u t i o n s as well as on t h e p a r t o f in d ividual s t u d e n t s . 69 Alexander Astin s tu d i e d c o l le g e dropouts from a n a tio n a l p e r ­ s p e c t i v e , using d ata from 217 i n s t i t u t i o n s o f h ig her education which p a r t i c i p a t e d in t h e Cooperative I n s t i t u t i o n s Research Program (CIRP). The sample included a l l e n t e r i n g freshmen in 1966, with a follow-up on a randomly s e l e c t e d p o r ti o n of th e o r i g i n a l sample in 1970. The r e s u l t s on academic a b i l i t y and p e r s i s t e n c e showed a c l e a r l y c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i o n - CO John Summerskill, "Dropouts from College" , in The American C o l le g e , ed. N ev i tt Sanf ord, (New York: John Wiley, 1962), pp. 627-631. For c i t a t i o n s o f s t u d i e s reviewed, see pp. 650-657. 69 Ibid., pp. 634-637. 46 ship between high school grades and a p t i t u d e t e s t s with p e r s i s t e n c e . A f te r four y e a r s , e i g h t y - e i g h t pe r c ent o f t h e "A" high school s tu d e n ts had r ec eived a degr ee , were s t i l l e n r o l l e d , o r had requ ested a t r a n s f e r ; compared t o s e v e n t y - t h r e e pe r cent o f th e "B" s tu d e n ts and f i f t y - t h r e e per c ent o f t h e "C" s t u d e n t s . The same r e l a t i o n s h i p s were found in comparing various l e v e ls o f SAT and ACT s c o r e s . ^ Two groups o f c o ll e g e dropo uts, those who were dismissed and those who withdrew, were compared on c o g n i t i v e and p e r s o n a l i t y measures by Richard Vaughan. The s u b j e c t s included s e v e n t y - e i g h t male under­ gr aduates who were d ism is se d , s ix ty-tw o male undergraduates who w i t h ­ drew and a randomly s e l e c t e d control group o f 141 males who were s t i l l completing t h e i r e d ucation. Measures used in th e study were th e MMPI, th e Iowa S i l e n t Reading Advanced Test (ISRT), and the SAT, a l l o f which were p a r t o f a b a t t e r y o f t e s t s admin istere d t o freshmen bef or e ad­ mission o r a t o r i e n t a t i o n . ^ Dismissed s tu d e n ts scored s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower on th e SAT and ISRT than p e r s i s t e r s , but were not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from w ith ­ drawals. Dismissed s tu d en ts manifested s i g n i f i c a n t l y more pathology on the MMPI than p e r s i s t e r s , being more im pulsive, more r e s t l e s s and u n s ta b l e , and lac king a deep commitment t o e d ucati on. No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s were found in comparisons o f the MMPI with withdra wals. When Vaughan lumped t o g e t h e r withdrawals and p e r s i s t e r s i n t o one group ^ A l e x a n d e r W. As t i n , College Dropouts; A National P r o f i l e , (Bethesda, MD.: ERIC Doc. Rep. S e r v . , ED 059 691, 1972). ^ R i c h a r d P. Vaughan, "College Dropouts: Dismissed v s . With­ drew", P e r s . & Guid. Journal 46 {Mar. 1968): 685-688. 47 f o r comparison with p e r s i s t e r s , the s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s l a r g e l y d isap p e ared , leading t o th e conclusion t h a t the dismissed s tu d e n ts were p r im a r i ly res p o n s ib le f o r th e d i f f e r e n c e s . The hypotheses t h a t dismissed s t u d e n t s would d i f f e r from p e r s i s t e r s , and t h a t grouping d i s m i s s a l s with withdrawals would obscure the r e l a t i o n s h i p s , were subs t a n t i a t e d by th e r e s u l t s . 72 Jack Rossman and Barbara Kirk examined d i f f e r e n c e s in a b i l i t y , p e r s o n a l i t y c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and a t t i t u d e s between freshmen s tu d e n t s a t th e U n iv e r sity of C a l i f o r n i a Berkeley who re turn ed f o r t h e i r sophomore y e a r and those who did not r e t u r n . Non-returning s tu dents were c a t e ­ goriz ed as withdrawals i f t h e i r GPA's were above 2 . 0 , o r as f a i l u r e s i f GPA's were below 2 . 0 . 72 A b i l i t y was measured by th e School and College A b i l i t y Test (SCAT), p e r s o n a l i t y was measured by the Omnibus P e r s o n a l i t y Inventory (OPI), and a t t i t u d e s were measured by a Student Ques tionnair e (SQ) designed f o r th e s tudy. The t h r e e instruments were v o l u n t a r i l y adm inist er ed t o a l l freshmen during r e g i s t r a t i o n week p r i o r to th e f a l l q u a r t e r , and s e v e n t y - f i v e pe r ce nt completed the in strum ents. T - t e s t s were used t o compare p e r s i s t e r s with voluntary withdrawals and to compare withdrawals to fa ilu re s . P e r s i s t e r s were found t o have s i g n i f i c a n t l y h igher SCAT- Verbal s c o r e s , and to be more i n t e l l e c t u a l l y o r i e n t e d . Significantly h ig h e r SCAT-Verbal score s were found among withdrawals compared to 72I b i d . , pp. 685-688. Jack E. Rossman and Barbara A. Kirk, "Factors Related t o P e r s i s ­ tence and Withdrawal Among U niversity S tu d e n t s , " Journal o f Couns. Psych. 17 (Jan. 1970): 56-62. failures. Total sc ore s on th e SCAT were higher among v o l u n t a r i l y w it h ­ drawals than f a i l u r e s f o r both men and women. Women volu ntar y w i th ­ drawals d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y from f a i l i n g women on seven OPI s c a l e s , y i e l d i n g a p r o f i l e o f a more i n t e l l e c t u a l , more independent and auto­ nomous, more a e s t h e t i c , and l e s s p r a c t i c a l l y o r ie n t e d s tu d e n t . The d i r e c t i o n o f scores f o r f a i l i n g men was th e same as f o r women, but reached s i g n i f i c a n c e on only two s c a l e s . 74 Andrew Bean and Robert Covert conducted a study to d i s c r i m i n a t e between c o l l e g e p e r s i s t e r s , w ithdr awals, and academic d i s m i s s a l s on th e b a s i s o f s c h o l a s t i c a p t i t u d e and p e r s o n a l i t y . The sample c o n s is t e d of 1125 male and female s tu d e n ts f o r whom SAT-Verbal s c o r e s , SAT-Math s c o r e s , and sc or es on the Runner Studies o f A t t i t u d e P a t t e r n s were available. U n iv a r ia te F - t e s t s o f between groups d i f f e r e n c e s r e s u l t e d in s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s f o r both males and females. Among males, th e academic d i s m i s s a l s had h ig her sc ores on th e Runner Acquiescence Scale than e i t h e r p e r s i s t e r s or withdrawals (p < . 0 5 ) ; and SAT s c o r e s , both Verbal and Math, were lower than both o t h e r groups (p < .001). For females, s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower scores were found on th e Runner Inde­ pendence Scale among academic d i s m i s s a l s (p < . 0 1 ) ; score s on the Runner Nonassertiveness Scale f e l l between p e r s i s t e r s and withdrawals (p < .05) 7c and SAT-Verbal and Math sc ores were s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower {p < .001). Clinton Chase, e t a l . , a l s o compared academically dismissed s t u - 74I b i d . , pp. 56-62. 75 Andrew G. Bean and Robert W. Covert, " P r e d ic ti o n o f College P e r s i s t e n c e , Withdrawal, and Academic Dismissal: A Discrim inant A n a ly s is , " Educ. and Psych. Meas. 33 (Summer 1979): 407-411. 49 dents with p e r s i s t e r s and withdrawals. Data were c o l l e c t e d o f 14,000 s tu d e n t s a f t e r 1, 2, 4, 8 , and 10 sem esters. The f in d in g s were s i m i l a r t o Bean and C o v e r t's in t h a t the SAT sc or es and high school rank were lower f o r d is m i s s a l s than f o r p e r s i s t e r s or withdrawals.^® Summary In Chapter I I , r e c e n t l i t e r a t u r e p e r t a i n i n g to t h e t o p i c o f c o l l e g e s tu d e n ts on academic pro ba tion was reviewed. The major conclusions which can be made concerning general p r e d i c t i o n o f academic achievement a r e t h a t many i n t e l l e c t i v e and n o n - i n t e l l e c t i v e f a c t o r s c o r r e l a t e with achievement, but t h a t high school grades and a p t i t u d e t e s t score s r e ­ main th e b e s t p r e d i c t o r s . Results o f s t u d i e s to p r e d i c t academic ach iev e­ ment or i d e n t i f y f a c t o r s a s s o c i a t e d with the low achievement o f s t u d e n ts on academic pr ob ation have v a r ie d from i n s t i t u t i o n t o i n s t i t u t i o n , a l ­ though high school grades and a p t i t u d e t e s t s have q u i t e c o n s i s t e n t l y emerged as s i g n i f i c a n t p r e d i c t o r s . Scores on th e Brown-Holtzman Survey o f Study Habits and A t t i t u d e s and responses to some items on th e Minne­ s o ta M ultipha sic P e r s o n a l i t y Inventory have f r e q u e n t l y been found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t f o r pr obatio na ry s t u d e n t s . Re sults o f s t u d i e s concerning tre a tm e n t programs have not always been s i g n i f i c a n t or c o n s i s t e n t . The most e f f e c t i v e programs appear to be tho se which u t i l i z e a combined study s k i l l s / g u i d a n c e and counseling approach. Studies on r e t e n t i o n of c o l l e g e s tu d e n ts have r ev ea led t h a t poor achievement i s a major c o n t r i ­ buting f a c t o r f o r approximately one t h i r d o f th e dr opou ts. High school 76 Clinton I . Chase, e t a l . , P e r s i s t e n c e and Conditions Related to I t : A P e r s i s t e n t Question, ( A rlington, VA.: ERIC Document Repro­ du ction S e r v ic e , ED 136 697, 1976), pp. 1- 5, pp. 15-27. 50 grades and a p t i t u d e t e s t score s again appeared as c o n s i s t e n t p r e d i c t o r s of persistence or a t t r i t i o n . CHAPTER I I I DESIGN OF THE STUDY In t h i s c h a p t e r , the design o f the study i s p r e s e n t e d . The population and samples ar e i d e n t i f i e d , and the t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s which were analyzed ar e l i s t e d . ar e d e s c r ib e d . The procedures f o r da ta c o l l e c t i o n The ex pos t f a c t o design and accompanying s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s ar e ex p la in e d , followed by a d is c u s s io n o f r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y concerns. F i n a l l y , the r esear ch hypotheses ar e p r e s e n t e d . Population and Samples The population f o r th e study was a l l f i r s t semester freshmen on academic prob ation a t Central Michigan U n iv e r s ity . samples were drawn. Two s e p a r a t e The f i r s t sample c o n s is te d o f 139 f i r s t semester freshmen on academic probatio n a t th e end o f t h e Fall semester 1976 who could be c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e s s fu l (above 2 . 0 0 ) , o r academically dismissed by th e end o f f o u r semesters (Winter, 1978); and f o r whom ACT p r o f i l e s were a v a i l a b l e . Data from th e f i r s t sample were used in d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s t o produce d is c r i m i n a n t f u n c t io n c o e f f i c i e n t s for prediction. The second sample c o n s i s t e d o f 122 f i r s t seme ster freshmen on academic pr oba tion a t th e end o f the Fall se mester 1977 f o r whom ACT p r o f i l e s were a v a i l a b l e , and who could be c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e ss fu l or dismissed a t th e end of fou r semester s (Winter, 1979). Data from th e second sample were used t o c r o s s - v a l i d a t e the p r e d i c t i o n r e s u l t s o f the f i r s t a n a l y s i s . 51 52 Var iables Studied The v a r i a b l e s used in the study c o n s is te d o f t h i r t y - o n e nominal, o rdin a l and i n t e r v a l v a r i a b l e s based on information a v a i l a b l e in s t u d e n t ' s academic f o l d e r s . These v a r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d from a l l p o s s i b l e da ta due t o f i n d i n g s in s t u d i e s reviewed, o r because o f t h e i r p o t e n t i a l use in academic ad v is i n g . One a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e , e t h n i c group, was included in the data c o l l e c t i o n , but was dropped from the a n a l y s i s due to th e high occurrence o f missing d ata which would have g r e a t l y reduced th e sample s i z e s . The t h r e e sources o f data were s tu d e n t a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r admission, ACT p r o f i l e s , and seme ster grade r e p o r t s . The a p p l i c a t i o n f o r ad­ mission co n ta i n s information on t h e sex of th e s t u d e n t . The high school p r i n c i p a l o r guidance coun selor provides th e high school GPA on th e admissions form. The ACT p r o f i l e contains the s t u d e n t ' s t e s t s c o r e s , and s e l f - r e p o r t e d information on degree o b j e c t i v e , c e r t a i n t y of major and vocational ch oice, and i n d i c a t i o n o f needing a s s i s t a n c e in r e a d i n g , w r i t i n g , math o r study s k i l l s , and personal counse ling. The semester grade r e p o r t s contain d ata r e l a t i n g to course lo a d , hours withdrawn (W), hours o f incomplete ( I ) , hours repeated (R), and cumulative c o l l e g e GPA. The f i r s t f i f t e e n v a r i a b l e s are based on e n t e r i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f s t u d e n t s , and the values f o r an in d iv id u a l s t u d e n t remain c o n s ta n t over th e time o f the study. The remaining v a r i a b l e s a r e based on ac a­ demic d ata f o r f o u r se meste rs. All t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r p o s s i b l e values a r e l i s t e d in Table 9. 53 TABLE 9 VARIABLES STUDIED AND POSSIBLE VALUES Variable P o s s ib le Values 1. Sex l=Male, 2=Female 2. High School GPA From 2.00 to 4.00 3. ACT English sco re From 1 t o 36 4. ACT Math s core From 1 to 36 5. ACT Natural Science sco re From 1 t o 36 6. ACT Social Studies score From 1 t o 36 7. Degree Objective l=None, 2 = v o c a t i o n a l / t e c h n i c a l , 3=two-year, 4=Bachelor's deg re e, 5=graduate s tu d y , 6=Ph.D., o r p r o f e s s io n a l degree 8. C e r t a i n t y o f major 0=None, l=Not s u r e , 2=Fairly s u re 3=Very sure 9. C e r t a i n t y o f vocation 0=None, l=Not s u r e , 2=Fairly sure 3=Very s ure Need help with educa tion al o r voca ti o nal plans l=No, 2=Yes 11. Need help with w r i t i n g s k i l l s l=No, 2=Yes 12. Need help with reading s k i l l s l=No, 2=Yes 13. Need help with study s k i l l s l=No, 2=Yes 14. Need help with math s k i l l s l=No, 2=Yes 15. Need personal counseling l=No, 2=Yes 16. Course lo a d , 1 s t seme ster From 1 t o 20 17. Hours withdrawn, 1 s t sem. From 1 to 19 18. Hours incomplete, 1 s t sem. From 1 t o 19 19. 1 s t Semester GPA From 20. Course lo a d , 2nd Semester From 1 t o 20 21. Hours withdrawn, 2nd sem. From 0 t o 19 22. Hours incomplete, 2nd sem. From 0 to 19 23. Hours r e p e a t e d , 2nd sem. From 0 t o 9 24. Course l o a d , 3rd semester From 1 t o 20 25. Hours withdrawn, 3rd sem. From 0 to 19 10. 0 .0 0 to 1.70 54 Table 9 ( c o n t ' d . ) P oss ible Values Variable 26. Hours incomplete, 3rd sem. From 0 t o 19 27. Hours r e p e a t e d , 3rd sem. From 0 t o 9 28. Course l o a d , 4th seme ster From 1 t o 20 29. Hours withdrawn, 4th sem. From 0 t o 19 30. Hours incomplete, 4th sem. From 0 to 19 31. Hours r e p e a te d , 4th sem. From 0 t o 9 C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f Subjects All s u b j e c ts were c l a s s i f i e d i n t o two groups. The f i r s t group, su cc es sful s t u d e n t s , c o n s i s t e d o f pr o b atio n a ry s t u d e n ts who, by the end o f f o u r semesters or l e s s , were a ble to r a i s e t h e i r GPA's above the l ev el o f 2.0 0 , and were no longer on p r o b a tio n . The second group, dismissed s t u d e n t s , c o n s is t e d o f p r obationa ry s tu d e n t s who, by th e end o f f o u r semesters o r l e s s , had f a i l e d to maintain grades above o r w ith in th e p r o batio na ry range and were academically dismissed from the U n iv e r sity . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n was based on academic s ta n d in g a t the end o f t h e fo u rth seme st er, o r a t the end o f the l a s t semester of en ro llm ent i f th e s t u d e n t was no long er in attendance a t the end o f the f o u r th seme ster. By t h i s method, s tu d e n ts who remained on prob ation or who v o l u n t a r i l y withdrew from th e U n iv e r sit y were e l im in a te d . Students who t r a n s f e r r e d t o o t h e r co lle g e s o r u n i v e r s i t i e s and sub­ se qu en tly r e t u r n e d t o Central Michigan U n iv e r sity were als o e li m i n a te d . In th e 1976 sample, s i x t y - f o u r s tu d e n t s were c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e s s f u l , 55 and s e v e n t y - f i v e were dismis sed. In th e 1977 sample, s i x t y - f i v e were s u c c e s s f u l , and f i f t y - s e v e n were dismissed. Procedures f o r Data C o llectio n Data f o r each s t u d e n t c l a s s i f i e d as s uc ce ss fu l or dismissed were gathered by reviewing the academic f o l d e r s and o b ta in in g values f o r each o f th e t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s used f o r a n a l y s i s . The values were recorded on computer coding forms and then key punched onto 80 column punch car d s, No data from s p rin g o r summer s e s s i o n en rollm ents were included in th e study. Research Design and S t a t i s t i c a l Analysis The study followed the form o f an ex post f a c t o qu as i-ex pe rim en tal design in t h a t th e experimenter lacks c ontrol over th e s u b j e c t s ' ex­ posure t o experimental s t i m u l i . ^ The ex p o s t f a c t o d e s ig n , intro du ce d by Chapin, i s an attempt t o fin d c a u s e - a n d - e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s in r e v e rs e by assuming t h a t some p r e s e n t s i t u a t i o n is an e f f e c t o f causal f a c t o r s occ urri ng in th e p a s t . 78 Discriminant a n a l y s i s i s a m u l t i v a r i a t e s t a t i s t i c a l technique which i s used to i d e n t i f y which of numerous v a r i a b l e s ar e important in d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between two o r more groups o f s u b je c ts which have been c l a s s i f i e d according to a dependent v a r i a b l e . Discriminant a n a l y s i s Donald T. Campbell and J u l i a n C. S t a n l e y , Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designs f o r Research, (Chicago: Rand McNally Pub. Co., 1966), p. 34. 78 Francis S. Chapin, Experimental Designs in Soc iological Research, (New York: Harper & B r o s . , 1947), p. 45. 56 a l s o provides information as t o the in f lu e n c e of d i f f e r e n t v a r i a b l e s in c o n t r i b u t i n g t o the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n . 79 In th e f i r s t s t e p o f a n a l y s i s , a l l t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s from the 1976 sample were submitted t o d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s is based on the value o f the v a r i a b l e s a t f o u r p o in ts in tim e, t h e end o f each seme ster from Fall 1976 t o Winter 1978. The ste pwise d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s program from t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r th e Social Sciences (SPSS) was used t o analyze th e d a t a . The stepwise method s e l e c t s v a r i a b l e s from th e f u l l s e t o f v a r i a b l e s on the b a s i s o f t h e i r d i s c r i m i n a t i n g power. The process begins by s e l e c t i n g th e s i n g l e v a r i a b l e which has the h i g h e s t value on th e c r i t e r i o n . 80 In t h i s s tu d y , the c r i t e r i o n f o r s e l e c t i o n was the value o f th e F - r a t i o . A f t e r s e l e c t i n g th e v a r i a b l e with th e h i g h e s t v a lu e , th e i n i t i a l v a r i a b l e is pa ir e d with a l l o t h e r s , one a t a tim e , t o i d e n t i f y th e b e s t combination o f two v a r i a b l e s . The process continues u n t i l th e remaining v a r i a b l e s no lo n g e r make a s i g n i f i c a n t contribution to discrim ination. The s e t o f v a r i a b l e s which i s s e l e c t e d i s r e f e r r e d to as th e d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n . Chi-square i s used to t e s t t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c tio n d e r i v e d . As a check on the accuracy o f the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n , th e o r i g i n a l sub­ j e c t s ar e c l a s s i f i e d on t h e b a s i s o f th e v a r i a b l e s in the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c tio n . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure produces the p r o b a b i l i t y of 79 L a l i t h a Sanathenan, "D iscriminant A n a ly s is , " in I n tr oducto r y M u l t i v a r i a t e A n a l y s i s , ed. Daniel J . Amick & Herbert J . Walberg, (Berkeley, C a l i f . : McCutchan Pub. Co., 1975), p. 236. 80William Klecka, "Discriminant A n a l y s is , " in SPSS: S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r th e Social S c i e n c e s , Second E d i t i o n , Normal H. Nie, e t a l . , (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1975), p. 447. 57 membership in each group, and th e s u b j e c t i s assigned to th e group with th e h i g h e s t p r o b a b i l i t y o f membership. 81 In a d d i t i o n t o c l a s s i f y i n g th e o r i g i n a l s u b je c t s from th e 1976 sample, th e p r e d i c t i v e accuracy o f th e v a r i a b l e s comprising th e d i s ­ criminant fu n ctio n was c r o s s - v a l i d a t e d by c l a s s i f y i n g th e s u b je c ts from th e 1977 pr ob at ion l i s t s . The c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n s t e p was included t o t e s t th e a b i l i t y o f th e d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t io n derived from i n f o r ­ mation on th e f i r s t group o f s u b j e c t s to be a p p lied to a nother group. V a l i d i t y and R e l i a b i 1i t y Campbell and Stanley c r i t i c i z e d Chapin's o r i g i n a l ex pos t f a c t o design due to lack o f control in s e l e c t i o n o f s u b j e c t s , and because Chapin's sample underwent c o n s id e r a b l e sh rin kag e in f i n d in g matched p a i r s t o submit t o a n a l y s i s . 82 In t h i s s t u d y , the use o f d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s e l im in a t e d th e need f o r matched p a i r s , but th e c r i t i c i s m regard in g lack o f contr ol over s e l e c t i o n o f s u b j e c t s does apply t o t h i s s tud y. The s u b j e c t s were s e l e c t e d because o f t h e i r p r o batio na ry s t a t u s , and according t o the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a ta . Since s tu d e n t s on probation a r e an extreme group by v i r t u e o f GPA, s t a t i s t i c a l r e g r e s s i o n toward t h e mean must be co ns ide red as a f a c t o r in p o t e n t i a l r e d u c tio n of validity. However, s in c e both groups compared in th e a n a l y s i s were from probatio n l i s t s , r e g r e s s i o n t endencies were equal ize d and did not e f f e c t th e comparison. Experimental m o r t a l i t y a l s o took place i n th e a n a l y s i s , s in c e 81 I b i d . , p. 442, p. 436, p. 447. 82 D. T. Campbell and J . C. S t a n le y , Experimental and QuasiExperimental Designs, p. 70. 58 values o f v a r i a b l e s f o r s tu d e n t s dismissed b e f o r e f o u r semesters were dropped from the a n a l y s i s over time. The extended time sequence o f f o u r semesters does pr ovid e , however, th e o p p o r tu n i ty to observe the s t a b i l i t y or i n s t a b i l i t y in s i g n i f i c a n c e o f v a r i a b l e s over time. Comparisons made a t each of th e f our po in ts in time ar e l i m i t e d to those s tu d e n t s who remained in school f o r t h e d u r a t io n of th e time period. P o t e n t i a l r e ducti on o f i n t e r n a l v a l i d i t y due to h i s t o r y o r matura­ t i o n o f s u b j e c t s was eq u ali zed s i n c e co n d itio n s were the same f o r a l l subjects. No t re a t m e n t i n t e r a c t i o n s o r experimenter e f f e c t s were p r e ­ s e n t because no t re a t m e n t was a d m in iste r e d , and t h e s u b j e c t s were not aware o f th e r esear ch p r o j e c t . Information on r e l i a b i l i t y and v a l i d i t y o f th e ACT was obtain ed from Buros' Mental Measurements Yearbook. R eliab ility correlations for score s on t h e f o u r s u b t e s t s were found to range from +.75 to + .8 9 , and approximately +.90 f o r th e composite s c o r e . I n te r n a l co nsis tency r e l i a b i l i t y was approximately +.90 f o r the f o u r s u b t e s t s . Stability ranged from +.67 to +.89 on r ep ea ted measures a t one t o f i v e month i n t e r v a l s , with th e lower c o r r e l a t i o n s found a t long er i n t e r v a l s . Content v a l i d i t y was judged t o be r e a s o n a b l e , and i t was noted t h a t t e s t items were reviewed by m inori ty group members b e fore f i n a l s e l e c t i o n . S e l f - r e p o r t e d grades by high school s tu d e n ts have been found t o be q u i t e a c c u r a t e , although c o r r e l a t i o n s d e c lin e d in r e c e n t y e a r s . In 1963, c o r r e l a t i o n s with a c tu a l grades ranged from +.91 t o + .9 3 , while in 1968 c o r r e l a t i o n s o f approximately +.80 were found. The l a r g e s t discrepancy between r e port ed and a c tu a l grades was observed in low s c o rin g s t u d e n t s . Answers to items which form th e p r o f i l e were s i x t y - 59 nine to n i n e t y - n i n e pe r cen t a c c u r a te when v e r i f i a b l e items were checked 83 a g a i n s t high school re c o rd s . The use o f grades as a measure o f academic performance in high school o r c o l l e g e i s s u b j e c t to many sources of u n r e l i a b i l i t y . As noted by Lavin, grades a r e s u b j e c t to co n s id e ra b le v a r i a t i o n because s t u d e n t s do not a l l tak e th e same s u b j e c t s , and because t e a c h e r s use d i f f e r e n t c r i t e r i a in as s i g n i n g grades. Moreover, s tu d e n ts vary in t h e i r a b i l i t y to perform on d i f f e r e n t types of examinations. 84 The r e s u l t s o f t h e study ar e g e n e r a l i z a b l e only to th e population s p e c i f i e d , freshmen s tu d e n t s on academic prob ation a t Central Michigan University. V ar iati o n s in s e l e c t i v i t y l e v e l s , academic p o l i c i e s , and lack o f homogeneity o f s tu d e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s from c o l le g e to c o ll e g e prev en t d i r e c t g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s t o o t h e r s e t t i n g s . Hypotheses The f i r s t hyp othesis t e s t e d in th e study concerned th e p o t e n t i a l a b i l i t y o f th e t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s to i d e n t i f y d i f f e r e n c e s between s u c c e s s fu l and f a i l i n g s t u d e n t s on academic p r o b a tio n . S t a t e d in th e nul l form, t h e hy pothesis was: no s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s would be found which d is c r im in a te d between th e two c l a s s i f i c a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s o f succ es sfu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . 83 John R. H i l l s , The Eighth Mental Measurements Yearbook, ed. Oscar Krisen Buros, (Highland P ar k, N . J . ! GryphorTTress, 1978), pp. 617-626. ®^D. E. Lavin, The P r e d i c ti o n o f Academic Performance, pp. 19-20. 60 The second hypothesis i s , t o be t e s t e d i f th e f i r s t was r e j e c t e d , concerned the a b i l i t y o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s i d e n t i f i e d by d i s ­ cr im in an t a n a l y s i s to p r e d i c t success o r f a i l u r e f o r s tu d e n ts on aca­ demic p r o b atio n . St a te d in the null form, the hypothesis was: v a r i a b l e s found t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u c c e ss fu l and dismissed s tu d e n ts would not p r e d i c t success or f a i l u r e o f s tu d e n t s ‘ on pro ba tion a t a level g r e a t e r than chance (50 per c e n t ) . Summary In Chapter I I I , th e design o f th e s tudy was d es crib ed . The popu­ l a t i o n and two samples were s p e c i f i e d , and t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s from s tu d e n t f i l e s were i d e n t i f i e d . were o u t l i n e d . Procedures f o r c o l l e c t i n g th e data The ex pos t f a c t o design was p r e s e n te d , and the s t a t i s ­ t i c a l a n a l y s i s was ex plained. Concerns r eg ar di ng v a l i d i t y and r e ­ l i a b i l i t y were d i s c u s s e d , followed by p r e s e n t a t i o n o f re se arch hypo­ theses. In Chapter IV, th e r e s u l t s of th e a n a l y s i s a r e r e p o r t e d . « CHAPTER IV RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS The primary purpose of t h i s study was t o i d e n t i f y s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s which d i f f e r e n t i a t e d between freshmen s tu d e n ts on pr ob at ion who subsequently succeeded in r a i s i n g t h e i r grades above pr oba tion and those who were dismissed due t o f a i l i n g grades. A r e l a t e d purpose was to i d e n t i f y a concise s e t of f a c t o r s which can be used to p r e d i c t th e f u t u r e performance of freshmen s tu d e n t s on p r o b a tio n . The f i r s t hypothesis t o be t e s t e d concerned th e a b i l i t y o f th e s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s t o i d e n t i f y d i f f e r e n c e s between s u ccess fu l and f a i l i n g s tu d e n ts on proba tion. The null h y p o t h e sis , t e s t e d a t th e .01 level of s i g n i f i ­ cance was: no s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s would be fo*nd which d is c r im in a te d between th e two c l a s s i f i e d c a t e g o r i e s of succ es sful and dismissed s tu d e n t s . The second hypothesis,, to be t e s t e d i f the f i r s t hypothesis was r e j e c t e d , concerned the a b i l i t y o f the s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s i d e n t i f i e d by d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s to p r e d i c t success or' F a i l u r e of s tu d e n ts on pro bat io n. The second hypothesis was: v a r i a b l e s found to d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u ccess fu l and dismissed s tu d e n t s would not p r e d i c t success or f a i l u r e o f s tu d e n ts on probation a t a level g r e a t e r than chance. The r e s u l t s o f th e a n a l y s i s p e r t a i n i n g t o each hypothesis ar e p r e s e n te d , in t u r n , in t h i s c h a p te r . 61 62 S i g n i f i c a n t Variables In th e f i r s t s t e p o f th e a n a l y s i s , data on nineteen v a r i a b l e s f o r 139 freshman s tu d e n ts from the Fall 1976 academic prob ation l i s t were submitted to s te p - w is e d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . Of the t o t a l o f 139 s t u d e n t s , s i x t y - f i v e were subsequently successful and s e v e n t y - f i v e were dismissed. The d ata c o n s i s t e d of information on t h e s e s tu d e n ts a t the f i r s t p o in t in tim e, the end of t h e i r f i r s t seme ster in c o l l e g e . At the end o f seven s t e p s , seven v a r i a b l e s were found which d i s c r i m i ­ nated between s u ccess fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . The seven v a r i a b l e s , the values o f th e F - r a t i o s , and s i g n i f i c a n c e lev el ar e l i s t e d in Table 10. TABLE 10 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES AFTER FIRST SEMESTER F Sig, Level (7, 131 df) 1 st Semester GPA 24.95 .001 Sex 18.60 .001 High School GPA 14.46 .001 ACT Math 11.50 .001 ACT Social Studies 9.43 .001 Need h e l p , study s k i l l s 8.05 .001 Need personal couns eling 7.08 .001 Var iable 63 Standar dized d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c tio n c o e f f i c i e n t s , and the mean sc ores f o r s u ccess fu l and dismissed groups in r e l a t i o n s h i p to th e grand mean a r e shown in Table 11. The d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c tio n c o e f f i ­ c i e n t s , when th e s ign i s igno re d, can be i n t e r p r e t e d as a measure o f th e r e l a t i v e weight o f a v a r i a b l e in determining the d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t io n . Table 11, th e c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 1 s t Semester GPA was - . 7 4 6 , compared to a c o e f f i c i e n t o f -.401 f o r high school GPA. Thus, 1 s t seme ster GPA c a r r i e d almost twice as much weight as high school GPA. TABLE 11 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS AND GROUP MEANS AFTER FIRST SEMESTER Var iable Disc. Func. Coefficient Success Mean Grand Mean Dismissed Mean 1 s t Semester GPA -.7 46 1.45 1.31 1.19 High School GPA -.401 2.82 2.73 2.64 Sex - .3 8 4 1.61 1.49 1.39 ACT Social Studies .213 14.45 15.78 16.92 Need h e l p , study s k i l l s .201 1.47 1.49 1.51 ACT Math .192 14.86 16.03 17.03 Need personal counseling .185 1.39 1.37 1.35 In th e second s t e p o f th e a n a l y s i s , t w e n ty - th r e e v a r i a b l e s , r e p r e s e n t i n g information on th e same 139 s tu d e n t s a t t h e end of the second seme ster were included in th e s te p - w is e d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . 64 At th e end o f e i g h t s t e p s , e i g h t v a r i a b l e s were found t o be s i g n i f i ­ cant. Six o f th e v a r i a b l e s were the same as those found to be s i g n i ­ f i c a n t a t the end of th e f i r s t semester. Summary s t a t i s t i c s on the e i g h t v a r i a b l e s a r e shown in Tables 12 and 13. TABLE 12 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES AFTER SECOND SEMESTER F Sig. Level (8, 130 df) 1 s t Semester GPA 24.95 .001 Sex 18.60 .001 Hours I , 2nd semester 16.21 .001 High School GPA 13.44 .001 Hours W, 2nd semester 11.17 .001 Need h e lp , study s k i l l s 9.60 .001 Need personal counseling 8.45 .001 ACT Social Studies 7.56 .001 Variable 65 TABLE 13 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS AND GROUP MEANS AFTER SECOND SEMESTER Success Mean .718 1.45 1.31 1.19 - .4 1 4 1.05 1.24 1.44 Sex .408 1.61 1.49 1.39 High school GPA .307 2.82 2.73 2.64 Need h e l p , study s k i l l s - .2 3 0 1.47 1.49 1.51 Hours W, 2nd semester - .2 1 3 0.05 0.28 0.48 .193 1.39 1.37 1.35 OD Grand Mean Disc. Func. Coefficient 14.45 15.78 16.92 Var iable 1 s t Semester GPA Hours I , 2nd Semester • ACT Social Studies 1 Need personal counseling Dismissed Mean In th e t h i r d s te p o f t h e a n a l y s i s , twenty-seven v a r i a b l e s , r e ­ p r e s e n tin g information on eighty-tw o s tu d e n ts who remained in school f o r t h r e e semesters was included in th e s te p - w i s e d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . Of t h e eighty-tw o s t u d e n t s , f i f t y - o n e were c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e ss fu l and t h i r t y - o n e were c l a s s i f i e d as dismissed. The l o ss in th e number o f s tu d e n ts from t h e f i r s t two p o in ts in time i s due t o th e f a c t t h a t f o r t y - f o u r s tu d e n t s were dismissed a t the end o f th e second se m e st er, and t h i r t e e n s u c c e s s fu l s tu d e n t s l e f t school o f t h e i r own accord. A f te r t h i r t e e n s t e p s , t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s were found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t in d is c r i m i n a n t i n g between s u c c e ss fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . Six o f th e t h i r t e e n a r e th e same as v a r i a b l e s found to be s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e end 66 of th e f i r s t o r second s e m e ste r s. Summary s t a t i s t i c s d e s c ri b in g the t h i r t e e n v a r i a b l e s ar e l i s t e d in Tables 14 and 15. TABLE 14 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES AFTER THIRD SEMESTER F Sig. Level (13, 67 df) 11.37 .001 High School GPA 8.78 .001 ACT Social Studies 8.35 .001 Hours W, 1 s t semester 7.30 .001 1 s t semester GPA 6.87 .001 Hours I , 2nd semester 6.72 .001 Course lo a d , 2nd semester 6.35 .001 Need h e lp , ed/voc plans 6.17 .001 Need h e l p , s tudy s k i l l s 5.78 .001 ACT Natural Science 5.49 .001 Hours I , 1 s t Semester 5.16 .001 Need h e lp , w r i t i n g s k i l l s 4.82 .001 ACT English 4.59 .001 Variable Course l o a d , 3rd semester 67 TABLE 15 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS AND GROUP MEANS AFTER THIRD SEMESTER Variable Disc. Func. Coefficient Success Mean Grand Mean Dismissed Mean Course l o a d , 3rd semester .947 15.24 14.74 13.94 1s t semester GPA .635 1.44 1.40 1.33 -.511 14.78 14.75 14.71 -.4 6 3 13.68 14.56 15.97 -.455 0.06 0.12 0.23 .437 1.60 1.56 1.48 Need h e lp , study s k i l l s -.3 93 1.46 1.49 1.54 ACT Natural Science -.376 18.00 18.59 19.55 Hours I , 1 s t semester -.311 0.10 0.23 0.45 Hours W, 1st semester .304 0.90 0.77 0.55 ACT English .268 15.36 15.38 15.42 Need help w r i ti n g .247 1.32 1.31 1.29 High school GPA .204 2.82 2.73 2.60 Course l o a d , 2nd sem. ACT Social Studies Hours I , 2nd sem. Need help ed/voc plans > Data included in th e a n a l y s i s in th e f o u r t h s t e p of th e a n a l y s i s c o n s is t e d o f a l l t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s , r e p r e s e n t i n g information on s i x t y - f o u r s tu d e n t s who remained in school f o r f our se me ste rs. Of t h e s e s i x t y - f o u r s t u d e n t s , f o r t y - e i g h t were c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e s s f u l , and f i f t e e n were c l a s s i f i e d as dismissed. The lo ss o f s tu d e n t s from t h e number in school a t th e end o f th e t h i r d semester i s due t o th e f a c t t h a t s ix t e e n had been dismissed a t th e end o f th e t h i r d se me ste r, and t h r e e s uccess fu l s t u d e n ts had l e f t school o f t h e i r own accord. A f te r s i x t e e n s t e p s , f o u rte e n v a r i a b l e s were found which d i s c r im in a te d between th e s u ccess fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . Ten o f th e f o urt een had p r eviously been found t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e end o f the f i r s t , second or t h i r d se meste rs. Summary s t a t i s t i c s p e r t a i n i n g to th e f o u r ­ teen v a r i a b l e s ar e prese nted in Tables 16 and 17. TABLE 16 SIGNIFICANT VARIABLES AFTER FOURTH SEMESTER F Sig. Level (14, 48 df) Course lo a d , 4th semester 11.11 .001 Course lo ad, 3rd semester 9.10 .001 Hours I , 1 s t semester 8.86 .001 Hours W, 3rd semester 8.79 .001 Course lo a d , 2nd semester 8.55 .001 Hours W, 4th semester 8.53 .001 Hours I , 1 s t semester 8.51 .001 Need h e l p , ed/voc plans 8.41 .001 High School GPA 8.26 .001 Hours R, 3rd semester 8.26 .001 Need h e l p , reading s k i l l s 8.12 .001 ACT English 8.04 .001 Need h e lp , study s k i l l s 8.04 .001 Hours W, 1 s t semester 8.00 .001 Variable 69 Table 16 (cont'd.) Sig. Level (14, 48 df) Variable F Hours I , 2nd semester 7.87 .001 1 s t Semester GPA 7.86 .00. TABLE 17 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS AND GROUPS MEANS AFTER FOURTH SEMESTER 1 Course lo a d , 3rd sem. Disc. Func. Coefficient VO CXI VO Variab le Success Mean Grand Mean Dismissed Mean 15.27 14.89 13.67 .881 14.81 14.87 14.07 Course lo a d , 4th sem. -.8 3 2 15.22 14.71 13.07 ACT English .783 15.21 15.57 16.73 Need h e l p , w r i t i n g s k i l l s .685 1.40 1.43 1.53 1 s t semester GPA -.6 59 1.45 1.43 1.35 Hours I , 2nd sem. .585 0.06 0.11 0.27 Hours W, 1 s t sem. 0.86 0.67 0.92 Hours W, 3rd sem. .485 1.27 1.40 1.80 Hours R, 3rd sem. - .362 0.40 0.35 0.20 High school GPA -.351 2.82 2.76 2.58 Need h e lp , study s k i l l s -.3 4 6 1.458 1.460 1.467 1 CO CO *3• Course lo a d , 2nd sem. 70 Table 17 (cont'd.) Disc. Func. Coefficient Success Mean Grand Mean Dismissed Mean Hours W, 4th sem. -.332 1.19 1.25 1.47 Need h e l p , educ/voc plans -.3 0 4 1.60 1.54 1.33 Var iable Var iables Over Time Over th e f o u r p o i n ts in time cons idered in the a n a l y s i s , twentytwo o f the o r i g i n a l s e t o f t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s were found to be s i g n i f i c a n t a t one o r more p o i n t s in time. Thus, t h e null hypothesis t h a t no s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s would be found was r e j e c t e d . A summary t a b l e showing t h e occurrenc e o f the twenty-two v a r i a b l e s as s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s a t each o f the f our p o i n t s in time i s p r e se n t e d in Table 18. The i n flu e n c e o f each v a r i a b l e i s a l s o shown as i t p e r t a i n s t o the s u c c e ss fu l s t u d e n t s . TABLE 18 SIGNIFICANCE AND INFLUENCE OF VARIABLES OVER TIME Semester 2 3 Variable 1 Sex X X High school GPA X X ACT English ACT Math X 4 C haracteristics of Successful Students Females more s u c c e s s fu l X X Higher GPA X X Lower score Lower score 71 Table 18 (cont'd.) Va riab le Semester 1 2 3 4 C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Successful Students ACT Social S tudies X X Lower sco re ACT Natural Science X Lower s core Need he lp ed/voc plans X Need h e lp , w r i t i n g s k i l l s X X Need h e lp , reading s k i l l s X X Need personal counseling X X Need h e l p , study s k i l l s X X More l i k e l y to express need More l i k e l y to express need X Less l i k e l y to express need X Less l i k e l y to expr ess need More l i k e l y to express need Course load, 2nd sem. X X Heavier course load Course l o a d , 3rd sem. X X Heavier course load X Heavier course load X More hours W Course lo a d , 4th sem. Hours U, 1 s t sem. X X Hours W, 2nd sem. Fewer hours W Hours W, 3rd sem. X Fewer hours W Hours W, 4th sem. X Fewer hours W Hours I , 1st sem. X Hours I , 2nd sem. X Hours R, 3rd sem. 1 s t semester GPA Fewer hours I X X X X X Fewer hours I X More hours R X Higher GPA 72 Three v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t d i s c r i m i n a t o r s a t a l l f o u r p o i n ts in time: high school GPA, f i r s t seme ster c o ll e g e GPA, and th e need f o r help with study s k i l l s . Scores on th e ACT s u b t e s t in Social Sciences were s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e end o f th e f i r s t , second and t h i r d s e m e s te r s , but not a t t h e end of the fo u rth semester. The number o f hours of incomplete during the second semester was a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r a t th e end o f the second, t h i r d and f o u r th se meste rs. Couse load and hours withdrawn c o n s i s t e n t l y appeared as s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s beginning with the second s e m e ste r , although the p a t t e r n o f in flu e n c e i s more d i f f i c u l t t o t r a c k because o f th e changes which occur over time. Sex, ACT English, th e need f o r help with educ atio na l or vocational p l a n s , and the need f o r personal counseling were s i g n i f i c a n t a t two o f th e four p o i n t s in time. The ACT Math s c o r e , need f o r help with w r i t i n g s k i l l s , th e need f o r help with reading s k i l l s , and hours of r e p e a t courses appeared as s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s once during th e four s em ester s. P r e d ic ti o n o f Success o r Dismissal Discrim inant a n a l y s i s can a l s o be used as a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n t e c h n i ­ que. C l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f each s u b j e c t is made on the b a s is of th e values o f the s u b j e c t ' s s ta n d a rd iz e d d i s c r i m i n a n t s c o r e . The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n process y i e l d s th e p r o b a b i l i t y o f membership in each group. The s u b j e c t i s then c l a s s i f i e d i n t o th e group with the higher p r o b a b i l i t y o f membership. To i l l u s t r a t e th e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n p r o c e s s , th e d i s ­ criminan t s c o r e s , c l a s s i f i c a t i o n p r o b a b i l i t i e s , and a ctual group member­ ship f o r ten s u b je c ts a t t h e end of th e f i r s t seme ster ar e shown in Table 19. For the ten examples shown, the accuracy o f p r e d i c t i o n was 73 seventy per ce nt. TABLE 19 EXAMPLES FROM CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUE Disc. Score P r e d ic te d Group 1st Prob. 2nd Prob. Actual Group Accuracy of P r e d ic ti o n 1 -1.259 Successful .815 .185 Successful Correct 2 1.436 Dismissed .860 .140 Dismissed Correct 3 - .154 Successful .532 .468 Successful Correct 4 .185 Successful .571 .429 Dismissed Incorrect 5 - .983 Dismissed .758 .242 Successful Incorrect 6 -2.548 Successful .955 .045 Successful Correct 7 -1.72 Successful .798 .202 Successful Correct Subject 8 .482 Successful .657 .343 Dismissed Correct 9 .593 Dismissed .687 .313 Dismissed Incorrect 10 - .559 Successful .651 .349 Successful Correct The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure was used t o p r e d i c t success o r d i s ­ missal f o r each o f th e s u b je c t s over the fo ur poi nts in time. Results f o r th e p r e d i c t i o n o f group membership a t the end o f the f i r s t semester a r e shown in Table 20. P r e d i c ti o n r e s u l t s f o r th e t h r e e s u c c e s s iv e semesters ar e shown in Tables 21, 22, and 23. 74 TABLE 20 PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER FIRST SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Dismissed Successful Actual Group N Successful 64 46 18 71.88% Dismissed 75 21 54 72.00% Total 139 % Correct 71.94% TABLE 21 PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER SECOND SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 64 51 13 76.69% Dismissed 75 21 54 72.00% Total 139 % Correct 75.54% 75 TABLE 22 PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER THIRD SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 51 43 8 84.31% Dismissed 31 3 28 90.32% Total 82 % Cor rect 86.59% TABLE 23 PREDICTION 1RESULTS AFTER FOURTH SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 49 47 2 95.92% Dismissed 15 0 15 100.00% Total 64 % Cor rect 96.88% At t h e end o f t h e f i r s t s em e ster , th e p r e d i c t i v e accuracy was 71.94 per c e n t. The p r e d i c t i v e accuracy in creased s l i g h t l y by the end o f two semesters t o 75.54 p e r c e n t. Accuracy a t the end o f t h r e e semesters in cr eased t o 86.59 per c e n t , and t o 96.88 per c e n t a t th e end o f f our s em e sters. At a l l f o ur po in ts in t im e , th e accuracy of p r e d i c t i o n was g r e a t e r than f i f t y per c e n t . Therefo re , th e null hypo- 76 t h e s i s t h a t v a r i a b l e s found t o d i s c r i m i n a t e s i g n i f i c a t l y between s u c c e ss ­ ful and dismissed s tu d e n t s would not p r e d i c t success o r f a i l u r e a t a l evel g r e a t e r than chance was r e j e c t e d . C r o s s- V alid atio n In o rder t o t e s t t h e p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y o f th e d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c tio n derived from d ata on th e 1976 s u b j e c t s , the c l a s s i f i c a t i o n process was extended t o p r e d i c t success o r d ism is sa l f o r 122 s u b je c ts in the 1977 sample. P r e d ic ti o n r e s u l t s a f t e r f o u r s e m e s te r s , from Fall 1977 to Winter 1979, a r e shown in Tables 24, 25, 26, and 27. TABLE 24 CROSS-VALIDATION: PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER FIRST SEMESTER Actual Group N Successful 65 46 19 70.77% Dismissed 57 24 33 57.89% Total 122 P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed % Cor rect 64.75% 77 TABLE 25 CROSS-VALIDATION: PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER SECOND SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 65 46 19 70.77% Dismissed 57 25 32 56.14% 122 Total % Correct 63.93% TABLE 26 CROSS--VALIDATION: PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER THIRD SEMESTER P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 51 34 17 66.67% Dismissed 16 6 10 62.50% Total 67 % Corr ect 65.67% 78 TABLE 27 CROSS-VALIDATION: PREDICTION RESULTS AFTER FOURTH SEMESTER Actual Group N Successful 48 40 8 83.33% 5 4 1 20.00% Dismissed Total P redic te d Group Successful Dismissed 53 % Correct 77.34% P r e d i c t i v e accuracy f o r s u b j e c ts in t h e 1977 sample was lower than f o r s u b je c ts in th e 1976 sample, from which the d i s c r i m i n a n t functio ns were d e r iv e d . Accuracy was g r e a t e r when p r e d i c t i n g s u ccess fu l s t u d e n ts than i t was f o r dismissed s t u d e n t s . The lev el o f accur acy, however, was s t i l l g r e a t e r than chance. Final Discriminant Analysis At t h i s p o i n t in th e s tu d y , a l l s t e p s in the a n a l y s i s had been c a r r i e d o u t , and th e primary purpose o f the s tu d y , to i d e n t i f y those f a c t o r s which d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u ccess fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s , had been accomplished. The second purpose, t o i d e n t i f y a concise s e t o f v a r i a b l e s which could be used f o r p r e d i c t i o n , was not s a t i s f i e d a t th is point. At t h e end o f the a n a l y s i s , twenty-two v a r i a b l e s had been i d e n t i f i e d across t h e f our p o in ts in time. Since twenty-two v a r i a b l e s was cons idered too many f o r p r a c t i c a l use in p r e d i c t i o n , an a d d iti o n a l s t e p was added t o th e a n a ly s is in an attem pt to reduce th e l i s t o f 79 variables. The a d d i t i o n a l s t e p was a f i n a l d i s c r im in a n t a n a l y s i s by d i r e c t method. In th e d i r e c t method, a l l s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s ar e e n te r e d a t once r a t h e r than one a t a time as in th e s te p - w is e method. Four v a r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d f o r in c l u s i o n in th e f i n a l d i s c r i m i ­ nan t a n a l y s i s . The f our v a r i a b l e s were: high school GPA, ACT Social Studies s c o r e , expressed need f o r help with study s k i l l s , and f i r s t seme ster c o l l e g e GPA. These v a r i a b l e s were s e l e c t e d because they were s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s over time in the s te p-w is e d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . The combination o f f our v a r i a b l e s y i e l d e d a d is c r im in a n t f u n c tio n which was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e .001 l e v e l . Discriminant fu nctio n c o e f f i ­ c i e n t s , a measure o f th e r e l a t i v e c o n t r ib u t i o n o f each v a r i a b l e , ar e shown in Table 28. TABLE 28 DISCRIMINANT FUNCTION COEFFICIENTS IN FINAL DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Variable F i r s t Semester GPA Coefficient .737 ACT Social Studies -.432 High School GPA -.431 Need help with study s k i l l s .140 The c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure was a l s o used in th e f i n a l d i s c r i m i ­ nant a n a l y s i s t o p r e d i c t group membership based on the values o f th e v a r i a b l e s a t th e end o f th e f i r s t seme ster o f enro llm en t. Classification 80 was 69.78 per cent c o r r e c t f o r th e 1976 sample, and 66.39 per c en t c o r r e c t f o r the 1977 c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample. Classification results f o r each sample are shown in Table 29 and Table 30. TABLE 29 CLASSIFICATION RESULTS IN FINAL DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 1976 SAMPLE Actual Group N Successful 64 51 13 79.69% Dismissed 75 29 46 61.33% Total P r e d ic te d Group Successful Dismissed 139 % Cor rect 69.78% TABLE 30 CLASSIFICATION RESULTS IN FINAL DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 1977 CROSS-VALIDATION SAMPLE P redic te d Group Successful Dismissed Actual Group N Successful 65 51 14 78.46% Dismissed 57 27 30 52.63% Total 122 % Correct 66.39% 81 Summary In t h i s c h a p t e r , th e r e s u l t s o f th e d is c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s were p r e s e n te d . Va riab les found to be s i g n i f i c a n t in d i s c r i m i n a t i n g between s u c c e ss fu l and dismissed s t u d e n ts over fo ur semesters were l i s t e d . C l a s s i f i c a t i o n r e s u l t s f o r th e 1976 sample and th e 1977 c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample were p resented. Res ults from a f i n a l d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s using f o u r v a r i a b l e s which were th e most c o n s i s t e n t p r e d i c t o r s were given. In Chapter V, the study i s summarized, conclusions drawn from th e r e s u l t s ar e d i s c u s s e d , and recommendations f o r f u r t h e r study a r e made. CHAPTER V SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Purpose The primary purpose o f t h i s s tudy was to i d e n t i f y s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s which d i f f e r e n t i a t e d between freshmen s tu d e n t s on academic pr obation a t Central Michigan U n iv e r sit y who succeed a t r a i s i n g t h e i r grades above pr ob at ion l e v e l , and those who f a i l t o r a i s e t h e i r grades and a r e dismis sed. In a d d i t i o n , a secondary purpose was t o i d e n t i f y a co ncise s e t o f f a c t o r s which can be used to p r e d i c t th e f u t u r e per ­ formance o f freshmen s t u d e n ts on academic p r o b a t io n . Hypotheses Two null hypotheses were t e s t e d . The f i r s t h y p o t h e s i s , t e s t e d a t t h e .01 level o f s i g n i f i c a n c e , was t h a t no s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s would be found which d isc r im in a n te d between the two c l a s s i f i c a t i o n c a t e g o r i e s o f s uc ce ss fu l and dismissed s t u d e n t s . The second h y p o t h e s i s , t o be t e s t e d i f t h e f i r s t hypothes is was r e j e c t e d , was t h a t v a r i a b l e s found t o d i s c r i m i n a t e between s u c c e s s fu l and dismissed s tu d e n ts would not p r e d i c t success of f a i l u r e a t a lev el g r e a t e r than chance. Procedures Data on t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s were c o l l e c t e d f o r 139 s tu d e n ts on the Fall 1976 scademic p r o b a tio n l i s t who had ACT p r o f i l e s and who could be c l a s s i f i e d as s u c c e ss fu l (grades above 2.00) o r academically dismissed a t t h e end o f f o u r semesters o r l e s s . In th e f i r s t s te p of a n a l y s i s , d ata f o r f i f t e e n v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g inform ation on 139 s t u d e n t s a f t e r th e f i r s t semester were submitted t o d i s c r i m i n a n t 82 83 analysis. In th e second s t e p , data f o r tw e n t y - th r e e v a r i a b l e s , r e p r e ­ s e n ti n g information on th e same 139 s t u d e n t s a f t e r t h e second semester were analyzed. In th e t h i r d s t e p , twenty-seven v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t i n g information on eighty-tw o s t u d e n t s who remained in school f o r t h r e e semesters were analyzed. In th e f o u rth s t e p , the f u l l t h i r t y - o n e v a r i a b l e s , r e p r e s e n t i n g inform atio n on s i x t y - f o u r s tu d e n t s who remained in school f o r f o u r semesters were submitted t o d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s . Findings Over the f o u r s em e s te r s , twenty-two o f the o r i g i n a l s e t o f v a r i a b l e s were found to be s i g n i f i c a n t a t one o r more p o in ts in time. Three v a r i a b l e s were s i g n i f i c a n t a t a l l f o u r po in ts in time: high school GPA, f i r s t semester c o l l e g e GPA, and expressed need f o r help with study s k i l l s from th e ACT p r o f i l e . Scores on th e ACT s u b t e s t in Social Sciences were s i g n i f i c a n t a t the end o f the f i r s t t h r e e s e m e s t e r s , but not a t th e end of the f o u r t h se me ste r. Sex, ACT Engli sh, need f o r hel p with educa tion al or voc at ional p l a n s , need f o r personal c o u n s elin g , course load during th e t h i r d s em e ster , course load during th e fo u rth s e m e s te r , and number o f hours withdrawn during th e f i r s t se me ster were s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a b l e s a t two o f t h e f o u r p o in ts in time. ACT Math, ACT Natural Science, need f o r h e lp with w r i t i n g s k i l l s , need f o r help with reading s k i l l s , hours withdrawn during the second s em est er and hours o f incomplete during th e f o u r th s e m e st e r , and hours o f r e p e a t courses during t h e f o u r t h semester were s i g n i f i c a n t a t one o f the f o u r p oints in time. Thus, th e f i r s t h y p o th e sis was r e j e c t e d . Discriminant sc or es f o r each of t h e s u b j e c t s in th e sample were used t o p r e d i c t success or dis m is s a l a t each o f th e f o u r p o in ts in time. 84 Since th e actual c l a s s i f i c a t i o n i s known, t h i s s t e p t e s t e d the p r e d i c t i v e accuracy of th e d is c r i m i n a n t f u n c t i o n s . At th e end o f the f i r s t semes­ t e r , p r e d i c t i v e accuracy was 71.94 per c e n t. The accuracy in crease d to 75.54 per c e n t a t the end o f the second s e m e s t e r , t o 86.59 per c e n t a t th e end o f the t h i r d s e m e ste r , and t o 96.88 p e r cen t a t th e end of the f o u rth se me ste r. P r e d i c t i v e accuracy f o r a c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample o f 122 freshmen on th e Fall 1977 prob ation l i s t ranged from 64.75 per c e n t t o 77.34 per c ent over f o u r sem ester s. Based on th e r e s u l t s , th e second hypothes is was a l s o r e j e c t e d . At t h i s p o in t in t h e s tu d y , th e primary purpose o f i d e n t i f y i n g d i s c r i m i n a t i n g v a r i a b l e s was accomplished, b u t the second purpose o f i d e n t i f y i n g a co ncis e group o f v a r i a b l e s which could be used f o r p r e ­ d i c t i o n was not accomplished. To meet t h i s need, a f i n a l d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s by d i r e c t method was done, using only th e f o u r v a r i a b l e s which were th e most c o n s i s t e n t p r e d i c t o r s a c r o ss time: high school GPA, f i r s t semester c o l l e g e GPA, ACT Social Sciences s c o r e , and expressed need f o r help with study s k i l l s . The combination o f f our v a r i a b l e s y i e l d e d a d i s c r i m i n a n t f u n c t io n which was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e .001 l e v e l . P r e d i c ti o n r e s u l t s , based on th e values o f th e v a r i a b l e s a t the end o f th e f i r s t s em e ster , y i e l d e d 69.78 per c ent accuracy f o r th e 1976 sample, and 66.39 per c ent accuracy f o r t h e 1977 c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample. Conclusions Based On Findings The d is c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s tec hnique used in the study proved to be an e f f e c t i v e method f o r i d e n t i f y i n g d i f f e r e n c e s between freshman s tu d e n ts on academic probatio n who a r e subsequently s uccess fu l o r d i s ­ missed. The r e s u l t s p e r t a i n i n g to s ex, high school GPA, and f i r s t 85 semester c o l l e g e GPA's were c o n s i s t e n t with previous s tu d i e s i n t h a t females were more s uccess fu l than males during the f i r s t y e a r , and t h a t h igher high school GPA's and f i r s t semester c o l l e g e GPA's were found among th e success fu l s t u d e n t s . The f in d in g s in the r e l a t i o n s h i p o f ACT s u b t e s t sc ores were c o n t r a r y t o previous s tu d i e s in t h a t the success fu l s tu d e n t s had lower mean sc ores than did dismissed s tu d e n t s . This may su ggest t h a t m otiva tion to achieve may have been s tr o n g e r f o r th e s uccess fu l s t u d e n t s , or t h a t ACT scores a r e l e s s r e l i a b l e as p r e ­ d i c t o r s f o r s tu d e n ts in t h i s range o f s c o re s . S t u d e n t ' s expr es sion o f a need f o r help with study s k i l l s was a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r across time in th e study. Need f o r help with educ ational or v oc ational p l a n s , reading s k i l l s , w r i t i n g s k i l l s and a need f o r personal counseling were s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s a t some po in ts in time. Although d i f f e r e n c e s in means o f s u ccess fu l and dismissed s tu d e n ts were s i g n i f i c a n t , and were useful in p o in ti n g out o v er all t r e n d s , th e s e p a r a t i o n between groups was not g r e a t enough to be re cognizable from the raw sc or es o f 1 or 2 which r e p r e s e n t "Yes" or "No" responses to t h e s e items. The general conclusion t h a t can be drawn i s t h a t the ex pr ession o f need f o r a s s i s t a n c e m e r its c o n s id e r a t i o n in working with s tu d e n t s on academic p r obatio n. The fin d in g s on course load o f s tu d e n t s on pr obation suggest t h a t ta king an average course load o f f i f t e e n hours o f c r e d i t i s a more s uccess fu l p r a c t i c e than dropping back in hours. The f in d in g s on withdrawing from c l a s s e s s uggest t h a t dropping c l a s s e s worked t o th e advantage o f s u ccess fu l s t u d e n t s in th e f i r s t seme st er, but was d i s ­ advantageous f o r dismissed s t u d e n ts in subsequent sem ester s. The p a t t e r n o f taking oncomplete grades in courses was a l s o disadvantageous 86 to dismissed s t u d e n t s . The i m p li c a ti o n s o f t h e s e f in d in g s a r e t h a t many dismissed s tu d e n ts may have been f a l l i n g in t o a s e l f - d e f e a t i n g p a t t e r n of t a k in g fewer c r e d i t s a t th e s t a r t o f the s em e ster , then dropping back f u r t h e r by withdrawing from c l a s s e s o r ta k in g incompletes. This p a t t e r n may i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e se s tu d e n ts may be withdrawing from d i f f i c u l t y r a t h e r than fa cing i t , o r deluding themselves i n t o th i nking t h a t a reduced course load w il l r e s u l t in b e t t e r achievement in th e remaining c l a s s e s . Where r e p e a t i n g of courses was a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r , dismissed s t u d e n ts were l e s s l i k e l y to use t h i s means o f improving t h e i r grade p o in t av erages, which a l s o sug ge sts an avoidance p a t t e r n . Using the f u l l s e t o f v a r i a b l e s , accuracy in p r e d i c t i n g success o r dism is sa l f o r s tu d e n ts on academic probatio n was 71.94 per c ent a t th e end o f the f i r s t s em ester , and g r a d u a lly in cr ea se d each semester to 96.88 per c ent by th e end o f the f o u rth semester f o r th e o r i g i n a l sample. This tre n d f o r improvement o f accuracy over time shows t h a t th e two groups o f s tu dents were f u r t h e r a p a r t as time pr og ressed . Accuracy f o r th e c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n sample was 64.75 pe r c ent a f t e r th e f i r s t semester and did not improve g r e a t l y u n t i l the fo u rth se m e st er, when i t reached 77.34 per c e n t. When t h e number o f v a r i a b l e s was reduced to th e f o u r most c o n s i s t e n t p r e d i c t o r s in t h e f i n a l d i s c r i m i ­ nant a n a l y s i s , p r e d i c t i o n a t the end o f the f i r s t seme ster was 69.78 pe r c ent f o r th e o r i g i n a l sample and 66.39 per c e n t f o r the c r o s s v a l i d a t i o n sample. By t h i s method, very l i t t l e accuracy was l o s t from using th e l a r g e r s e t o f v a r i a b l e s , and accuracy was g r e a t e r f o r the c r o s s - v a l i d a t i o n group. These fin d in g s su ggest t h a t information from the l a r g e r group o f v a r i a b l e s i s of more value f o r i d e n t i f y i n g p a t t e r n s and t r e n d s than they a r e f o r p r e d i c t i o n . In a d d i t i o n , the margin of 87 p o s s i b l e e r r o r in p r e d i c t i o n i s too g r e a t t o use as a decision-making method, but seems to have promise f o r use as a d i a g n o s t i c tool in ad v isin g s tu d e n ts on courses o f a c t i o n , o r r e f e r r i n g s tu d e n ts to sources o f a s s i s t a n c e . Recommendations Based on th e r e s u l t s o f th e s tu d y , i t i s recommended t h a t the s t a t i s t i c a l technique o f d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s be used more widely f o r comparing group d i f f e r e n c e s and as a p r e d i c t i v e device. F u r th e r , i t i s recommended t h a t th e te chnique be a p p lied a t o t h e r i n s t i t u t i o n s to i d e n t i f y p a t t e r n s e x i s t i n g in o t h e r ed uca ti onal s e t t i n g s . More s p e c i f i c recommendations can be made in regard to a s s i s t i n g freshmen s tu d e n ts on academic prob ation a t Central Michigan U n i v e r sity . F urth er e x p l o r a t io n i n t o the f in d i n g s on th e ACT s u b t e s t scores should be done t o atte m pt to i d e n t i f y why s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower sc ores were found f o r th e success fu l s t u d e n t s . The use o f t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n procedure f o r p r e d i c t i n g succ es sfu l o r dismissed s tu d e n ts i s recommended f o r use in i d e n t i f y i n g p r o b a b i l i t i e s f o r success f o r s tu d e n t s on academic pr ob at io n. The p r o b a b i l i t i e s should be used as a means o f i d e n t i f y i n g thos e s t u d e n t s who have th e g r e a t e s t need f o r in d ividual a t t e n t i o n and a s s i s t a n c e . Since p a t t e r n s may change as s t u d e n ts change, i t i s recommended t h a t d i s c r i m i n a n t a n a l y s i s be r ep ea ted a t two or t h r e e y e a r i n t e r v a l s to form updated d i s c r i m i n a n t fu n c tio n s f o r use in prediction. The purposes o f t h i s study were accomplished through th e i d e n t i f i ­ c a t i o n o f f a c t o r s which d i f f e r e n t i a t e d between freshman s t u d e n ts on probatio n who were s u ccess fu l o r dismissed from the U n i v e r s i t y , and through t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a concis e s e t o f v a r i a b l e s which can be used in p r e d i c t i n g t h e f u tu r e performance o f freshman s tu d e n t s on p r obatio n. 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