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Z E E B R O A D , A N N A R B O R , Ml 4 8 1 0 6 18 B E D F O R D ROW, L O N D O N WC 1 R 4 E J , E N G L A N D 8112174 W e b b , W il l ia m L e l a n d A STUDY OF THE DESEGREGATION OF THE LANSING, MICHIGAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND THE EFFECTS OF THAT DESEGREGATION ON WHITE AND NON-WHITE ENROLLMENT Michigan State University University Microfilms International PH.D. 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106 1980 A STUDY OF THE DESEGREGATION OF THE LANSING, MICHIGAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND THE EFFECTS OF THAT DESEGREGATION ON WHITE AND NON-WHITE ENROLLMENT By William L. Webb A DISSERTATION Submitted t o Michigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y in p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i re m e n ts f o r t h e deg re e o f DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department o f A d m i n i s t r a t i o n and Higher Education 1980 ABSTRACT A STUDY OF THE DESEGREGATION OF THE LANSING, MICHIGAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS AND THE EFFECTS OF THAT DESEGREGATION ON WHITE AND NON-WHITE ENROLLMENT By William L. Webb Since t h e United S t a t e s Supreme Court in 1954 a d j u d i c a t e d in Brown v. Topeka t h a t th e n o ti o n o f s e p a r a t e but equal had no p la c e in American e d u c a t i o n , school d e s e g r e g a t i o n has been a v o l a t i l e issue. Few o t h e r e v e n ts in American l i f e have so permeated American th ough t and a c t i o n . The i s s u e o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s an e x trem ely emotional one and in c e r t a i n s e t t i n g s s t i l l d e f i e s r a t i o n a l and a n a l y t i c a l s c r u t i n y . D e t r a c t o r s o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n have blamed d e c l i n e in s t u d e n t ac hiev em en t, m in o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e in urban c i t i e s , and m i n o r i t y i n c r e a s e in school p o p u la tio n on school desegreation. However, a c l o s e r look a t what have been some o f th e cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f school d e s e g r e a t i o n , d o e s n ' t n e c e s s a r i l y b e a r o u t t h a t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n al one has been th e cause o f white f l i g h t and urban non-white m a j o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n s in American urban c i t i e s . This study was de sig ne d t o determ ine what e f f e c t s d e s e g r e g a ­ t i o n e f f o r t s had on t h e elem entary e n r o l lm e n t o f one medium s i z e d William L. Webb school d i s t r i c t , t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , Lansing, Michigan. The s tu d y sought t o a d d r e ss t h r e e s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s : 1. Did d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s in t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change in th e elem entary s chools f o r e i t h e r white or non-white s t u d e n t s ? 2. Did membership in a c l u s t e r make a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change f o r e i t h e r white or non-white students? 3. Is t h e r e a t i p p i n g p o i n t which f u n c t i o n s in th e elemen­ t a r y s c h o o ls o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t ? The f i n d i n g s o f t h i s stu d y were: 1. There was a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in th e r a t e o f e n r o l l ­ ment change r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n . This was t r u e f o r both wh ite and non-white e n r o l l m e n t with t h e d i f f e r e n c e in change f o r both groups being in th e same d i r e c t i o n . The r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change f o r white s t u d e n t s , which was d e c l i n i n g b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n , e v i ­ denced an i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e of d e c l i n e with th e im plem en tation of desegregation. Non-white e n r o l l m e n t s , which had been growing p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n , c o n tin u ed t o grow a f t e r th e implem en tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , b u t a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower r a t e . 2. Membership in a c l u s t e r was n o t shown t o have a s i g n i f i ­ c a n t impact on e n r o l lm e n t change in L a n s i n g 's ele m e n ta r y s c h o o ls f o r e i t h e r wh ite o r non-white s t u d e n t s . Schools which were n a t u r a l l y i n t e g r a t e d p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n and, t h e r e f o r e , ne ver became members o f a c l u s t e r m ain ta in e d e n r o l l m e n t b e t t e r than t h e s e s c h o o ls which were n o t i n t e g r a t e d p r i o r t o d e s e g r e a t i o n and th u s were made W i l l i a m L. members o f a c l u s t e r . Webb This p a t t e r n began s e v e r a l y e a r s b e f o r e th e implementation o f t h e c l u s t e r , however, and no a l t e r a t i o n in t h i s t r e n d was shown a t t h e p o i n t o f c l u s t e r implementation o r in th e y e a r s f o llo w in g t h a t implemen tation . 3. The pr e se n c e o f a t i p p i n g p o i n t in t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t ' s e lem entary s c h o o ls was n o t confirmed by t h i s s tu d y . In d iv i d u a l s c h o o ls with more than 30 p e r c e n t non- white e n r o l l m e n t s p r i o r t o f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n (September 1976) were n o t shown t o be more l i k e l y t o have s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e d in p e r c e n t o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t by t h e end o f t h e study than were s c h o o ls with 29 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l lm e n t o r l e s s p r i o r t o f i n a l d e s e g r e a t i o n . Even when viewed as a group schools wit h more than 30 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l l m e n t p r i o r t o f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n showed no s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r gain in non-white e n r o l l m e n t by t h e end o f t h e stu d y than th e group o f s c h o o ls with l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l lm e n t p r io r to fin a l desegregation. This d i s s e r t a t i o n i s d e d i c a t e d t o my w i f e , Sue, w i th o u t whose s u p p o r t and d e d i c a t e d help i t would n o t have been p o s s i b l e and t o my p a r e n t s who pr ovided c o n s t a n t s u p p o r t and m o t i v a t i o n . ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The hel p and encouragement o f t h e f o ll o w i n g per so ns i s g r a t e ­ f u l l y acknowledged: Dr. H e r b e rt C. Rudman, whose encouragement and s u p p o r t was unwavering dur in g t h e w r i t i n g o f t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . The members o f my committee, Dr. James C o s t a r , Dr. A l b e r t Levak, and Dr. Louis Romano whose a s s i s t a n c e was g r e a t l y a p p r e c i a t e d . Dr. I . Carl C a n d o li , former S u p e r i n t e n d e n t o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , who encouraged and s upport ed th e b e g inning o f t h i s venture. Dr. Eva Evans, a f r i e n d and c o l l e a g u e who was always ready t o he lp. Rob Young, who provide d t e c h n i c a l a s s i s t a n c e whenever needed. Leah Graham, a f r i e n d who provide d c o n s t a n t encouragement and help . iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES........................................................................................................... v i i i Chapter I. II. III. STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM....................................................................... 1 I n t r o d u c t i o n ..................................................... Background.................................................................................................. Purpose o f t h e S tu d y ............................................................................ Importance o f t h e S t u d y ................................................................... The Scope and D e l i m i t a t i o n of t h e S t u d y ............................... L i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e S t u d y................................................................... D e f i n i t i o n s .............................................................................................. H ypothes es .................................................................................................. Overview o f th e D i s s e r t a t i o n .......................................................... 1 4 10 10 12 12 12 14 14 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE............................................................... 15 Legal Background..................................................................................... R e la t e d S t u d i e s ..................................................................................... Sum mary....................................................................................................... 15 23 48 METHODS AND PROCEDURES............................................................................ 50 P o p u l a t i o n .............................................................................................. P r o c e d u r e s .................................................................................................. Design and Methodology o f th e S t u d y ........................................ Hypothes es .................................................................................................. General Hypothesis 1........................................................................ General Hypothesis I I ................................................................... General Hypothes is I I I ................................................................... Summary....................................................................................................... 50 50 58 56 66 67 67 68 iv Chapter IV. Page FINDINGS................................................................... 69 Hypothesis I ......................................................................................... O p e r a t io n a l Hypothesis l a ..................................................... O p e r a t io n a l Hypothesis Ic ...................................................... O p erational Hypothesis lb ..................................................... O p e r a tio n a l Hypothesis Id ..................................................... Hypothesis I I ..................................................................................... O p e r a t io n a l Hypothesis I l a ..................................................... O p e r a tio n a l Hypothesis l i b ...................................................... Hypothesis I I I ..................................................................................... O p erati onal Hypothesis I l i a .................................................... Summary....................................................................................................... 69 70 73 74 77 83 83 89 94 94 97 V. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS......................................................................... 99 D i s c u s s i o n .............................................................................................. I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r R esea rch ................................................ 101 Ill BIBLIOGRAPHY ........................................................................................................... 116 APPENDICES................................................................................................................ 120 A. C l u s t e r G r o u p s .......................................................................................... 121 B. Map o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t .............................................. 123 C. Locatio n o f C l u s t e r and No n- Cluster Schools 125 v ........................ LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Fourth Frid ay Elementary Eth nic Count ............................................ 52 2 Number and P e r c e n t o f White and Non-White Enrollment C h a n g e . ........................................................................................................... 53 3 Group 1, C l u s t e r s I and I I Implemented September 1972 . . . 54 4 Group 2, C l u s t e r I I I Implemented September 1973 ........................ 55 5 Group 3, C l u s t e r s IV, V, and VI Implemented September 1976.................................................................................................................... 56 6 Group 4, Non C l u s t e r s .................................................................................. 57 7 Change in th e P e r c e n t o f Non-White E nrollm en t from September 1976 t o January 1979.......................................................... 59 Frequency o f Total Live B i r t h s in Ingham County by Age and E t h n i c / R a c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f th e Mother, 1970-1977 ....................................................................................................... 63 P ercentage o f Total Live B i r t h s i n Ingham County by Age and E t h n i c / R a c i a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e Mother, 1970-1977 ....................................................................................................... 64 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r O p e r a ti o n a l Hypothesis l a ......................................................................................................................... 72 11 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r Hypothesis I c ........................... 76 12 A n a ly s is of Covariance Table f o r O p e r a ti o n a l Hypothes is l b ......................................................................................................................... 79 13 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r Hypothesis I d ........................... 82 14 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r White Enrollm ent Change. 1972 C l u s t e r s vs. N o n - C l u s te r ......................................... 86 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r White Enr ollm en t Change. 1973 C l u s t e r s vs. N o n - C l u s t e r ........................................................... 87 8 9 10 15 vi Table Page 16 A naly s is o f Covariance Table f o r White Enrollment Change. 1976 C l u s t e r vs. N o n - C l u s t e r ...................................................................88 17 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r Non-White Enrollment Change. 1972 C l u s t e r vs. N on- Cluster ......................................... 91 A n a ly s is o f Covariance Table f o r Non-White Enrollment Change. 1973 C l u s t e r vs. N on- Cluster .......................................... 92 A n a ly s is o f Covar iance Table f o r Non-White Enrollment Change. 1976 C l u s t e r vs. Non- Cluster ......................................... 93 18 19 20 Tipping E f f e c t ........................................................................................................96 v ii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 2 3 4 5 6 Page M u lt i p l e Re gr es sio n Line f o r White Enrollment 1967-68 ....................................................................................................... 71 Rate o f Change of White Enrollment Between Each Year 1967-68.............................................................................................. 75 M u lt ip le Regression Line f o r Non White Enro llmen t 1967-68 ....................................................................................................... 78 Rate o f Change o f Non-White Enrollment Between Each Year 1967-78.............................................................................................. 81 Rate o f White Enrollment Changes, C l u s t e r vs. N o n - C l u s t e r .............................................................................................. 85 Rate o f Non-White Enrollment Changes C l u s t e r vs. N o n - C l u s t e r .............................................................................................. 90 vi i i CHAPTER I STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM The problem f o r study i s t o d i s c e r n whether i n one middles i z e d urban school d i s t r i c t , t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , s u b s t a n t i v e w h ite f l i g h t from th e d i s t r i c t has o c c u r re d and i f any w h ite f l i g h t measured i s t h e r e s u l t o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s i n t h e e l em entary s c h o o ls . Introduction Since t h e United S t a t e s Supreme Court in 1954 a d j u d i c a t e d in Brown v. Topeka t h a t th e n o t io n o f s e p a r a t e b u t equal had no p l a c e in American e d u c a t i o n , school d e s e g r e g a t i o n has been a v o l a t i l e issue. Few o t h e r e v e n ts in American l i f e have so permeated American th o u g h t and a c t i o n . The i s s u e o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s an e x trem ely emotional one and in c e r t a i n s e t t i n g s s t i l l d e f i e s r a t i o n a l and a n a l y t i c a l s c r u t i n y . D e t r a c t o r s o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n have blamed d e c l i n e i n s t u d e n t achievem en t, m i n o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n i n c r e a s e in urban c i t i e s , and m i n o r i t y i n c r e a s e in school p o p u l a t i o n on school d e s e g r e a t i o n . However, a c l o s e r look a t what have been some o f t h e cause and e f f e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p s o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n , does not n e c e s s a r i l y b e a r o u t t h a t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n a l o n e has been t h e cause o f wh ite f l i g h t and an i n c r e a s i n g urban m i n o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n in American c i t i e s . 1 2 In an e a r l y stu d y which caused much de bate and s t i m u l a t e d a number o f r e l a t e d s t u d i e s , James Coleman s t a t e d t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n in a school d i s t r i c t does a c c e l e r a t e t h e l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s . ^ He went on t o say t h a t n o t only does t h e l o s s o f wh ite f a m i l i e s from urban a r e a s have a n e g a t i v e impact on th o s e a r e a s , b u t i t a l s o r e s u l t s i n a r e s e g r e g a t i o n of t h e s c h o o ls o r i g i n a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d . David Armor s i m i l a r l y i n t e r p r e t e d th e r e s u l t s o f s t u d i e s he conducted t o show t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n does r e s u l t in i n c r e a s e d white loss. Armor went on t o say t h a t t h i s i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e when th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s f o r c e d on a d i s t r i c t , in v o lv e s busing white s t u d e n t s t o s c h o o ls with t o t a l o r l a r g e m i n o r i t y p o p u l a t i o n s , and t h e d i s t r i c t 2 e n r o l lm e n t s exceed 10 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y . Other r e s e a r c h e r s have d i s p u t e d th e c o n c l u s io n s re ached by Coleman and Armor. C h r i s t i n e R o s se ll has i n d i c a t e d t h a t "school 3 d e s e g r e g a t i o n has l i t t l e o r no e f f e c t on white f l i g h t . " She f e e l s t h a t Coleman's o p p o s i t e c o n c l u s io n i s due t o " e r r o r in h i s measure 4 o f t h e phenomenon" c i t i n g s t u d i e s o f h er own t o s u p p o r t t h i s con­ clusion. ^James S. Coleman, " L i b e r t y and E q u a li t y in School Desegre­ g a t i o n , " Social P o l i c y , Vol. 6, No. 4 ( J a n . / F e b . 1976): 9-13. 2 David J . Armor, White F l i g h t Demographic T r a n s i t i o n and the Future o f School D es eg reg a ti o n ( S anta Monica: The Rand C o r p o r a t i o n , 1978), pp. 1-77. 3 C h r i s t i n e H. R o s s e l l , "School Desegre ga ti on and White F l i g h t , " P o l i t i c a l S cience Q u a r t e r l y , Vol. 90, No. 4 (Winter 19767 7 ) , p. 676. ^Ibid. 3 Reynolds F a r le y s i m i l a r l y d i s p u t e s Coleman's c o n c l u s i o n s . F a r le y f e e l s t h a t not only does d e s e g r e g a t i o n , i n c l u d i n g t h e busing of s t u d e n t s t o ach iev e i t , n o t cause wh it e f l i g h t b u t t h a t i t i s a 5 good s h o r t range s o l u t i o n to a major urban problem. Gary O r f i e l d s t a t e s t h a t a t t r i b u t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e in t h e number of w h i te s b e f o r e and a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n s o l e l y t o white f l i g h t i g n o re s t h e d e c l i n i n g e n r o l lm e n t t r e n d , e s t a b l i s h e d p a t t e r n s o f white movement t o s u b u r b s , and l o c a l c i r c u m s ta n c e s which occur s i m u l t a n e o u s l y with d e s e g r e g a t i o n . He c l a i m s , in f a c t , t h a t d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n of s c h o o ls can have a r e v e r s e e f f e c t by en couraging a growth in i n t e g r a t e d housing. O r f i e l d a s s e r t s t h a t w h ile w h ite s w i l l not remain in o r move i n t o a l a r g e l y m i n o r i t y neighborhood i f i t i n c l u d e s a l l m i n o r i t y s c h o o l s , the y may make such a move i f given a s s u r a n c e o f i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls . 6 Another phenomenon o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n which has r e c e i v e d much a t t e n t i o n i s t h e so c a l l e d t i p p i n g p o i n t . Michael G i l e s , e t a l . , d e s c r i b e s a t i p p i n g p o i n t as having s i g n i f i c a n t impact on t h e l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s . He say s t h a t once a school rea c h e s 30 p e r c e n t o r more m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t t h a t i t t i p s m i n o r i t y , t h a t i t s m i n o r i t y ^Reynolds F a r l e y , " I s Coleman Right?" S o c ia l P o l i c y , Vol. 6 No. 4 ( J a n . / F e b . 1976): 15. r Gary O r f i e l d , "White F l i g h t Res ea rch , I t s Importance, P e r p l e x i t i e s , and P o s s i b l e P o lic y I m p l i c a t i o n s , " Symposium on School D e s e g r e g a ti o n , ed. Gary O r f i e l d (August 1975), pp. 44-68. 4 e n r o l l m e n t e x h i b i t s r a p i d growth w h ile w h ite e n r o l l m e n t d e c l i n e s a t a correspondingly rapid r a t e . ^ Char les C l o t f e l t e r acknowledges t h a t a t i p p i n g p o i n t does e x i s t , perhaps around th e 50 p e r c e n t l e v e l , b u t t h a t so many o t h e r f a c t o r s e n t e r i n t o th e e q u a t i o n t h a t i d e n t i f y i n g a s p e c i f i c p o i n t i s d ifficult. He does say t h a t s c h o o ls under 25 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y a r e no t l i k e l y t o be a f f e c t e d w h ile s c h o o ls r e a c h i n g 80 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y g a r e l i k e l y t o be abandoned by w h i t e s . These and o t h e r r e l a t e d s t u d i e s a r e d e a l t w i th in g r e a t e r d e t a i l in Chapter I I . Background The Lansing School D i s t r i c t i s c e n t e r e d in t h e c i t y of Lansing, Michigan, s e r v i n g t h e c i t y and p o r t i o n s o f s e v e r a l s u r ­ rounding townships. The s c h o o ls o f t h e d i s t r i c t a r e o r g a n iz e d as elem entary (K-6), j u n i o r high ( 7 - 9 ) , and s e n i o r high (10-1 2 ) . The Lansing School D i s t r i c t a l s o o p e r a t e s an e x t e n s i v e Co ntinu in g Educa­ t i o n program. Lansing Community College o r i g i n a t e d as a p a r t of th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t b u t has s e v e re d t h a t t i e and now o p e r a t e s as a separate e n tity . ^Michael W. G i l e s , E v e r e t t F. C a t a l d o , Douglas S. G r a t l i n , "D es egre gatio n and t h e P r i v a t e School A l t e r n a t i v e , " Symposium on School D e s e g r e g a ti o n , ed. Gary O r f i e l d (August 1975), pp. 21-31. o Ch ar le s T. C l o t f e l t e r , "School D e s e g r e g a ti o n , ' T i p p i n g , ' and P r i v a t e School E n r o ll m e n t," The J o u rn a l o f Human Resources Vol. XI, No. 1 (Winter 1976), U n i v e r s i t y o f Wisconsin P r e s s , p. 45. 5 The Lansing School D i s t r i c t reached i t s peak K-12 e n r o l l m e n t in 1971 with 33,080 s t u d e n t s . Of t h i s number 18,702 were el em entary. The e lem entary e n r o l lm e n t o f th e d i s t r i c t had a c t u a l l y reached i t s peak in 1969 a t 19,004 s t u d e n t s and had s t a r t e d a s te a d y d e c l i n e by 1971 .9 The d i s t r i c t began t o keep s t a t i s t i c s on s t u d e n t s by rac e in 1967. In t h a t y e a r t h e t o t a l e n r o l l m e n t o f t h e elem entary s ch oo ls was 18,644 o f which 15,766 o r 85 p e r c e n t were white and 2,878 o r 15 p e r c e n t were non-w hite. By 1971 th e elem entary e n r o l l m e n t of 18,702 was composed o f 14,516 o r 78 p e r c e n t white and 4,186 o r 22 percent non-white.^9 In 1967 th e Lansing Board of Education had redrawn t h e j u n i o r and s e n i o r high boundary l i n e s so t h a t each j u n i o r and s e n i o r high school approximated t h e m in o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t o f t h e o v e r - a l l d i s t r i c t . At t h e e lem entary l e v e l , however, over 85 p e r c e n t o f t h e non-white s t u d e n t s a t t e n d e d s c h o o ls which c o n ta in e d a m a j o r i t y o f non-white students. By 1971 d e s p i t e th e c l o s i n g o f two m a j o r i t y non-white e n r o l lm e n t s c h o o ls and th e assignment of t h e i r s t u d e n t s t o m a j o r i t y wh ite e n r o l lm e n t s c h o o ls t h e s i t u a t i o n had n o t g r e a t l y changed. In a d d i t i o n t h e r e was a growing d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n among non-white p a r e n t s t h a t t h e i r c h i l d r e n were b e a r in g t h e b r u n t o f e f f o r t s t o d e s e g r e g a t e t h e Lansing e lem entary s c h o o ls through a p a t t e r n o f one way busin g. Q Lansing School D i s t r i c t Child Accounting r e c o r d s . ^ L a n s i n g School D i s t r i c t Ethnic Count Records, September 1967 and September 1971. 6 In t h e f a l l o f 1971 t h e Board o f Education formed a c i t i z e n s committee t o study t h e problem and t o make recommendations t o deseg­ r e g a t e t h e Lansing ele men tary s c h o o l s . r e p o r t in Apr il 1972. The committee s u b m itted i t s The r e p o r t i n c lu d e d f o u r a l t e r n a t e p la n s f o r d e s e g r e g a t i n g t h e elem en tary s c h o o ls a l l o f which in v o lv e d t h e busing o f p u p i l s away from t h e i r home school a r e a . The Board o f Education he ld s i x p u b l i c h e a r i n g s on t h e committee r e p o r t du rin g t h e month of May 1972. Following t h e h e a r in g t h e Board developed a m od ified e lem entary d e s e g r e g a t i o n pl an c a l l i n g f o r l e s s busing than any of t h e f o u r c i t i z e n committee p l a n s . The Board then hel d a p u b l i c h e a r in g on th e m od ifi ed p la n . The mo dified plan c a l l e d f o r each ele m e n ta r y school t o have an e n r o l l m e n t o f no l e s s than 10 p e r c e n t nor no more than 45 p e r c e n t non-white s t u d e n t s . alo ne. Schools which met t h i s c r i t e r i a were to be l e f t Schools which d id not meet t h e c r i t e r i a were t o be grouped o r " c l u s t e r e d " in c l u s t e r s o f from two t o f i v e s c h o o l s . Each of th e c l u s t e r scho ols would r e t a i n i t s own neighborhood e n r o l lm e n t in grades k i n d e r g a r t e n through second. In a d d i t i o n each c l u s t e r school would c o n t a i n grades t h r e e and f o u r o r g rades f i v e and s i x . S tudents in t h e s e f o u r grades would spend two of t h e y e a r s i n t h e i r home school and th e o t h e r two y e a r s in a d i f f e r e n t school w i t h i n th e cluster. S tu d en ts in grades one and two were t o have j o i n t a c t i v i t i e s with o t h e r c l u s t e r s chools t o p r e p a r e them f o r th e time th ey e n t e r e d t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n . The p lan s p e c i f i e d t h a t two c l u s t e r s of f o u r s c h o o ls each would be i n i t i a t e d in t h e 1972-73 school y e a r and a t h i r d c l u s t e r in v o lv in g an a d d i t i o n a l f i v e s chools would be 7 i n i t i a t e d i n t h e 1973-74 school y e a r . Following t h i s would be a p e r i o d o f s tu d y t o e v a l u a t e t h e c l u s t e r pla n and t o develop recom­ mendations f o r i t s m o d i f i c a t i o n a n d / o r expan sion. During th e p e r i o d o f p u b l i c h e a r i n g s in May a group c a l l i n g i t s e l f C i t i z e n s f o r Neighborhood Schools (CNS) was formed. The CNS d e c l a r e d t h a t i t opposed any a t t e m p t t o bus s t u d e n t s away from t h e i r neighborhood school and t h a t any Board members who voted f o r such a pla n would be r e c a l l e d . In J une, 1972 t h e Board adopted th e m odifi ed e lem entary d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n by a f i v e t o f o u r v o t e . The CNS f i l e d r e c a l l p e t i t i o n s a g a i n s t t h e f i v e Board members who voted f o r t h e p l a n . A r e c a l l e l e c t i o n was sc h e d u le d t o be a p a r t o f t h e r e g u l a r November 7, 1972 e l e c t i o n . E f f o r t s by CNS t o have th e Board e n j o i n e d by c o u r t o r d e r t o p r e v e n t im plem en tation o f t h e ele m e n ta r y d e s e g r e g a t i o n plan in September 1972 were not s u c c e s s f u l . In September th e Lansing s c h o o ls opened and implemented the elem en ta ry c l u s t e r p la n w i t h o u t i n c i d e n t . In November t h e e l e c t o r a t e r e c a l l e d th e f i v e Board members who had voted f o r th e c l u s t e r p l a n , l e a v i n g t h e Board w i t h o u t a m a j o r i t y o f i t s members and unab le to o p e r a t e . Governor Mi H i ken a p p o in te d f i v e i n t e r i m Board members t o allo w t h e d i s t r i c t t o o p e r a t e u n t i l a new Board e l e c t i o n could be h e ld . In J a n u a ry 1973 f i v e c a n d i d a t e s endor sed by CNS were e l e c t e d t o th e Board o f Education. The new Board voted s i x t o t h r e e in February t o d i s c o n t i n u e th e c l u s t e r plan e f f e c t i v e September 1973. The NAACP so ug ht an i n j u n c t i o n in f e d e r a l d i s t r i c t c o u r t t o p r e v e n t t h e Board from 8 d i s c o n t i n u i n g t h e c l u s t e r p la n . Judge Noel Fox den ied th e NAACP r e q u e s t and asked both s i d e s t o reach an out o f c o u r t s e t t l e m e n t . In J u l y 1973 Judge Fox he ld a he a r in g on th e NAACP motion when th e two s i d e s f a i l e d t o r ea ch agreement. In August 1973 Judge Fox i s s u e d a p r e l i m i n a r y i n j u n c t i o n a g a i n s t t h e Board o r d e r i n g r e i n s t a t e m e n t o f th e c l u s t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n plan. The Board ap pealed Judge Fox' r u l i n g t o th e Court of Appeals but t h e a p p e l l a t e c o u r t denied t h e appeal and remanded th e cas e back t o Judge Fox f o r a t r i a l on t h e m e r i t s . The opening o f school in September 1973 was de layed two weeks due to a t e a c h e r ' s s t r i k e but when school d i d open t h e t h r e e c l u s t e r s were in p l a c e and t h e opening took p l a c e w it h o u t i n c i d e n t . During t h e 1974-75 school y e a r th e c l u s t e r program was e v a l ­ u a te d . S tu d e n t achievement l e v e l s i n math and r e a d in g i n d i c a t e d no l o s s in academic achievement in t h e s e f i e l d s f o r wh ite o r non-white p u p i l s and both groups a c t u a l l y showed some g a in s i n t h e upper elem en ta r y g r a d e s . A p u b l i c o p inion survey commissioned by t h e Board o f Education showed t h a t w h ile t h e community d id not f a v o r busing i t had been a c c e p te d and p a r e n t s , s t u d e n t s , and t e a c h e r s a l l had p o s i ­ t i v e f e e l i n g s about what was happening in s c h o o ls . In September 1975 Judge Fox conducted a p r e - t r i a l h e a r i n g on t h e Lansing d e s e g r e g a t i o n cas e and asked f o r a t o t a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n plan by October 14, 1975. The Board o f Education developed s e v e r a l p l a n s a l l o f which were u n s a t i s f a c t o r y t o t h e c o u r t . In October 1975 Judge Fox or dere d a t r i a l on th e m e r i t s the case. of In December 1975 Judge Fox r u l e d t h a t th e Lansing School 9 D i s t r i c t and i t s Board o f Education had been g u i l t y o f a c t s o f s e g r e g a t i o n in v i o l a t i o n o f t h e C o n s t i t u t i o n and laws o f t h e United S t a t e s and o f th e C o n s t i t u t i o n o f t h e S t a t e o f Michigan. He order ed th e Board to submit t o him by March 1, 1976, a comprehensive d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n pla n. The Board was unable t o a g r e e on a p lan so i n May 1976 Judge Fox o r d e re d t h e im plem en tation of a d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n s u b m it te d i n s t e a d by t h e NAACP. The pl an c a l l e d f o r t h e a d d i t i o n o f t h r e e new c l u s t e r s c o n t a i n i n g a t o t a l o f ni ne s c h o o ls . The o r i g i n a l t h r e e c l u s t e r s were t o c o n t i n u e but t h e grade s t r u c t u r e was a d j u s t e d . Under t h e new pl an a l l k i n d e r g a r t e n s t u d e n t s would remain in t h e i r home s c h o o ls . One school in each c l u s t e r would house a l l f i f t h and s i x t h grade s t u d e n t s of t h e c l u s t e r . The remaining s c h o o ls in the c l u s t e r would d i v i d e t h e s t u d e n t s in grad es one th ro ugh f o u r between them. The c o u r t o r d e r e d plan was t o be implemented in September 1976. Schools opened i n September w i t h o u t i n c i d e n t . The Board appe aled t h e o r d e r o f Judge Fox t o t h e Court o f Appeals where t h e i r appeal was de nied and on to t h e United S t a t e s Supreme C o urt, which r e f u s e d t o he a r t h e a p p e a l . ^ The c l u s t e r p l a n o r d e r e d by Judge Fox i s s t i l l o p e r a t i n g in th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t b u t in September 1979 f o u r e lem entary s c h o o l s , i n c l u d i n g t h r e e c l u s t e r s c h o o l s , were c l o s e d due t o declining enrollm ent. The c o n t r o v e r s y s u rr o u n d in g t h i s a c t i o n added ^ " E l e m e n t a r y School D es e g re g a ti o n i n Lansing, A B r i e f Summary," compiled by t h e In fo r m a t io n S e r v ic e s O f f i c e , Lansing School D i s t r i c t . 10 a v a r i a b l e t o e n r o l l m e n t change which would make th e c o n t i n u a t i o n of t h i s s tu d y beyond t h e 1973-79 school y e a r i m p r a c t i c a l . Purpose o f t h e Study The purp ose o f t h i s s tu d y i s t o i n v e s t i g a t e : 1. I f t h e r a t e o f w h i te l o s s i n c r e a s e d o r d e c r e a s e d s i g n i f i ­ c a n t l y d u r in g t h e pla n n in g f o r a n d / o r implemen tation o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n . Does th e p a t t e r n o f white e n r o l l m e n t change vary from t h e p a t t e r n o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t change over t h e same p e r io d ? 2. I f t h e r e i s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between white l o s s from a school i n t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t and membership in a c l u s t e r . Is t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between membership in a c l u s t e r and e n r o l l m e n t change d i f f e r e n t f o r w h ite s and no n- whites? 3. I f t h e t i p p i n g p o i n t has been a f u n c t i o n i n g co n cept in t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t ' s s t u d e n t e n r o l l m e n t p a t t e r n s d u r in g t h e p r o c e s s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n o r s ubsequ ent t o i t s im plem en tation. Importance o f t h e Study I t i s i m p o r t a n t t h a t d a t a co ncerning w h ite f l i g h t and d e s e g r e g a t i o n i n t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t be added t o t h e l i t e r ­ a t u r e in t h e f i e l d , whether th o s e d a t a a r e in c o n f l i c t with o r sup­ p o r t i v e o f d a t a d e r i v e d from o t h e r d i s t r i c t s d u r in g a p e r i o d o f desegregation. I t i s o f s p e c i a l im po rtance t o t h i s s tu d y t o look s p e c i f i c a l l y a t th o s e s c h o o ls i n c l u d e d i n t h e c l u s t e r s as compared t o s c h o o ls n o t 11 so i n c lu d e d as t h e c l u s t e r s c o n s t i t u t e t h e major t h r u s t o f L a n s i n g 's d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n . There a r e t h r e e s p e c i f i c a r e a s t o be a d d r ess ed in c o l l e c t i n g these data: 1. The Lansing School D i s t r i c t has e x p e r i e n c e d an i n c r e a s e in t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f non-white s t u d e n t s and a d e c l i n e in t h e p e r c e n t ­ age o f white s t u d e n t s in i t s e n r o l lm e n t s i n c e implementing a u s a b le system f o r t h e c o l l e c t i o n of r a c i a l s t a t i s t i c s i n 1967. This has given t h e im pre s sio n t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s in th e d i s t r i c t d id t r i g g e r a s i g n i f i c a n t l o s s in th e p e r c e n t o f white s t u d e n t s . im p o r t a n t t o de te rm ine i f t h i s i s t r u e . I t is I t i s a l s o im p o r t a n t t o de term in e i f t h e e f f e c t s were t h e same o r d i f f e r e n t f o r non-white s t u d e n t e n r o l l m e n t as f o r white e n r o l l m e n t . 2. The Lansing School D i s t r i c t grouped t h o s e s chools involved in t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t i n t o s e v e r a l c l u s t e r s . I t is i m p o r t a n t t o see i f s ch oo ls grouped i n t o a c l u s t e r f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n purp oses e x p e r i e n c e a g r e a t e r p e r c e n t a g e o f white l o s s th an s ch oo ls n o t in v o lv e d in a c l u s t e r . F u r t h e r i t i s i m p o rt a n t t o see i f th e e f f e c t i s th e same o r d i f f e r e n t on non-white e n r o l l m e n t . 3. I t i s i m p o r t a n t t o det er m ine i f i n d i v i d u a l schools in a school d i s t r i c t such as Lansing, with an o v e r a l l non-white e n r o l lm e n t under 30 p e r c e n t a t t h e time of d e s e g r e g a t i o n , e x p e r i e n c e t i p p i n g when th e y pa ss 30 p e r c e n t in non-white e n r o l lm e n t . 12 The Scope and D e l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e Study The stu dy i s d e l i m i t e d as fo ll o w s : 1. I t w i l l be l i m i t e d t o a s tu d y o f t h e elem en tary s chools (K-6) o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . 2. I t w i l l be l i m i t e d t o s tu d y i n g t h e r a t e and d i r e c t i o n o f change i n both t h e no n-w hite and w h ite e n r o l lm e n t b e f o r e , d u r i n g , and f o llo w in g major d e s e g r e g a t i o n . 3. I t w i l l be l i m i t e d t o th e p e r i o d beg inning w ith th e 1967-68 school y e a r , when r a c i a l e n r o l lm e n t d a t a a r e f i r s t a v a i l a b l e in u s a b le form, th ro ugh t h e 1978-79 school y e a r . L i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e Study The s tu d y i s l i m i t e d by t h e f o ll o w i n g f a c t o r s : 1. The i n a b i l i t y to c o n t r o l c o m pletely f o r the v a r i a b l e of b i r t h r a t e as i t impacts e n r o l lm e n t changes. 2. The l a c k o f census d a t a , e s p e c i a l l y b i r t h s t a t i s t i c s , f o r t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t as a s e p a r a t e u n i t . 3. The lack o f a c l e a r , u n i v e r s a l l y a c c e p t e d , d e f i n i t i o n o f e t h n i c / r a c i a l groups. Defini t i o n s D es e g re g a ti o n : For t h e purpose o f t h i s stu d y d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s d e f in e d as t h e t r a n s f e r o f s t u d e n t s i n such a way t h a t no school has l e s s than 10 p e r c e n t nor more than 45 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t . Non-White ( M i n o r i t y ) : The Child Accounting Department o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t c l a s s i f i e s s t u d e n t s as American I n d i a n , Black, Asian, L a ti n o , White, and Other. All s t u d e n t s c l a s s i f i e d in any c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o t h e r th a n White a r e c o n s id e r e d Non-White f o r purposes of t h i s s tu d y . interchangeably. Non-White and M in orit y w i l l be used 13 Cluster: The Lansing d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n was based on group­ ing s c h o o ls t o g e t h e r i n t o c l u s t e r s . Elementary s c h o o ls which f e l l o u t s i d e o f t h e 10 p e r c e n t - 45 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t g u i d e l i n e s were grouped t o g e t h e r in groups o f from two to f i v e s c h o o ls . Each c l u s t e r i s c o n s i d e r e d t o be one school and s t u d e n t s a r e a s s i g n e d t o a given b u i l d i n g w i t h i n th e c l u s t e r based on t h e i r grade l e v e l . G e n e r a l ly one b u i l d i n g in t h e c l u s t e r houses a l l f i f t h and s i x t h grade s t u d e n t s and t h e o t h e r b u i l d i n g s house s t u d e n t s i n grad es one through f o u r . All k i n d e r g a r t e n s t u d e n t s remain in t h e i r home s c h o o l. Tipping: According t o th e l i t e r a t u r e when a school re aches a given p e r c e n t a g e o f non- white e n r o l l m e n t t h a t school w i l l t i p n o n - w h ite , t h a t i s t h e e n r o l l m e n t w i l l r a p i d l y approach 100 p e r c e n t non -w hite . There i s no t r u e consensus on what p e r c e n t a g e of non­ w h ite e n r o l lm e n t cau ses a b u i l d i n g t o t i p , b u t t h e most o f t e n used f i g u r e i s 30 p e r c e n t . For purp oses o f t h i s s tu d y 30 p e r c e n t i s used as t h e s u s p e c t e d t i p p i n g p o i n t . Control Years: The c o n t r o l y e a r s w i l l be t h e school y e a r s b e g in nin g w i th t h e 1967-68 school y e a r through t h e 1971-72 school year. racial The 1967-68 school y e a r was t h e f i r s t y e a r f o r which u s a b le 12 e n r o l l m e n t s t a t i s t i c s a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r th e Lansing s c h o o ls . The 1971-72 school y e a r i s t h e l a s t y e a r p r i o r t o implemen tation o f t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n o f t h e Lansing e lem enta ry s c h o o ls . D es eg reg a tio n Years: The d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s w i l l be the school y e a r s f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f t h e Lansing elem entary 12 White and Non-White c a t e g o r i e s as d e f i n e d on page 12 o f th is report. 14 s c h o o ls beg in ning with th e 1972-73 school y e a r through th e 1978-79 school y e a r . Hypotheses There w i l l be t h r e e major hypotheses t e s t e d in t h i s s tu d y . These hypothese s a r e r e s t a t e d in t e s t a b l e form in Chapter I I I . 1. There w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t change shown in t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change in Lansing e l em enta ry schools between t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s and t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s . 2. Membership in a c l u s t e r w i l l be shown t o have a s i g n i f i ­ c a n t e f f e c t on e n r o l lm e n t change in Lansing elem entary s c h o o ls . 3. Tipping w i l l be shown to be a f a c t o r in e n r o l lm e n t change in Lansing e lem en ta r y s chools s i n c e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Overview o f t h e D i s s e r t a t i o n Chapter I I w i l l c o n t a i n a review o f l i t e r a t u r e in two a r e a s : th e l e g a l background f o r c o u r t order ed d e s e g r e g a t i o n and r e l a t e d s t u d i e s on t h e e f f e c t of d e s e g r e g a t i o n on white l o s s from c e n t r a l c i t y school d i s t r i c t s . Chapter I I I c o n t a i n s a d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e methods, sample and p r o ced u res used in th e s tu d y . C ha pter IV c o n t a i n s an a n a l y s i s o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e d a ta g e n e r a te d from t e s t i n g th e hy pothes es. Chap ter V c o n t a i n s th e summary, d i s c u s s i o n and c o n c l u s io n s drawn from t h e s tu d y . CHAPTER I I REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE The review o f l i t e r a t u r e r e l e v a n t t o t h i s s tu d y p r o v id e s an overview in two a r e a s . The f i r s t s e c t i o n t r a c e s th e l e g a l background f o r c o u r t o r d e re d d e s e g r e g a t i o n in a c h r o n o l o g ic a l o r d e r commenting on t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f some o f t h e major c o u r t d e c i s i o n s . The second s e c t i o n reviews some s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d i e s which have been done s eeking t o measure t h e e f f e c t of d e s e g r e g a t i o n on whit e l o s s from c e n t r a l c i t y school d i s t r i c t s . While most o f th e e x i s t i n g s t u d i e s deal only w i th b l a c k - w h i t e d e s e g r e g a t i o n , c a r e has been tak en here t o i n c lu d e and i d e n t i f y some s t u d i e s which deal with n o n - w h i te - w h ite d e s e g r e g a t i o n as t h i s stu d y w i l l do. Legal Background The i s s u e o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n f i r s t gaine d n a t i o n a l prominence in 1954 w i th t h e Supreme C o u r t ' s r u l i n g in Brown v. Topeka, 347 U.S. 483 (1954) l a t e r known as Brown I , o v e r t u r n i n g t h e s e p a r a t e but equal d o c t r i n e e s t a b l i s h e d by th e c o u r t in P l e s s y v. Ferguson, 163 U.S. 537, 559 ( 1 8 9 6 ) J In Brown I t h e c o u r t r u l e d t h a t dual \ e a g u e o f Women V o t e r s , School D es eg reg a ti o n ( D e t r o i t : League of Women Voters in t h e D e t r o i t M e t r o p o l i t a n Area, December 1972), p. 1. 15 16 school systems in t h e South based on r a c e were u n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l . I t remained f o r a second r u l i n g by t h e c o u r t , however, t o r e q u i r e t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f dual systems. In Brown v. Board o f Education I I , 349 U.S. 294 ( 1955), t h e c o u r t o r d e r e d a l l s t a t e s m a i n t a i n i n g ? dual systems to d e s e g r e g a t e "with a l l d e l i b e r a t e s p e e d ." Following t h e Brown d e c i s i o n s t h e c o u r t i s s u e d a number of d e c i s i o n s both c l a r i f y i n g and expanding t h e impact on school d e s e g r e ­ gation. In Cooper v. Aaron, 358 U.S. 1 (1958) th e c o u r t r u l e d t h a t t h e r i g h t s o f c h i l d r e n t o a t t e n d i n t e g r a t e d s chools ca nn ot be " f r u s t r a t e d or postponed because of v i o l e n c e , d i s r u p t i o n or o b j e c t i o n 3 to in te g ra tio n ." In Green v. County School Board o f Kent County V i r g i n i a , 391 U.S. 430 ( 1 9 6 8 ), th e c o u r t r u l e d t h a t school d i s t r i c t s with dual systems have an a f f i r m a t i v e o b l i g a t i o n t o p r o v id e a u n i t a r y system "now."^ The so c a l l e d busing c a s e , Swann v. C h a r i o t t e - Mecklenburg, 402 U.S. 1 ( 1971), e s t a b l i s h e d a number o f rem ed ies, i n c l u d i n g b u s in g , which could be o r d e re d by lower c o u r t s t o e l i m i n a t e 5 s e g r e g a t i o n in s c h o o l s . Moving i n t o t h e North f o r t h e f i r s t time in Keyes v. School D i s t r i c t No. 1, 413 U.S. 189 (1973) t h e c o u r t s t a t e d t h a t any p r e s e n t o r p a s t p r a c t i c e o f a school d i s t r i c t which ^ I b i d . , p. 2. 3 "Cooper v. Aaron," C u r r e n t Education Law,Vol. 4, No. 3 (March 1974): 32. 4 "Green v. County School Board o f Kent County," C u rrent Educ ation Law,Vol. 4, No. 4 (April 1974): 37. 5 Robert J . Simpson, " D es egre gation Since Swann and Keyes," C u r r e n t Trends in School Law (Topeka: The National O r g a n iz a tio n on Legal Problems o f E d u c a t io n , 1973), pp. 179-130. 17 r e s u l t s in t h e e s t a b l i s h m e n t o f r a c i a l l y i d e n t i f i a b l e s c h o o ls even i n t h e absence o f s t a t u t e , has t h e e f f e c t o f c r e a t i n g a dual system which must be rem edied.^ In each o f th e ca s es c i t e d h e r e , plus o t h e r s s i m i l a r in n a t u r e , t h e c o u r t has d e a l t with s i n g l e d i s t r i c t s . The i s s u e of m u l t i - d i s t r i c t d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n s a r o s e as c e n t r a l c i t y school d i s ­ t r i c t s developed an i n c r e a s i n g l y h i g h e r p e r c e n t a g e o f m i n o r i t y e n r o l l ­ ments wh ile suburban school d i s t r i c t s s u rr o u n d i n g them remained p r i ­ m a r il y w h ite . Two major ca s es have ad d r e ss e d t h i s i s s u e w it h o u t fully clarifying i t . In Bradley v. School Board, 412 U.S. 92 (1974) a d iv i d e d Supreme Court l e t s ta n d an Appeals Court d e c i s i o n t h a t no " j o i n t i n t e r a c t i o n " was found among th e involved d i s t r i c t s , Richmond, C h e s t e r f i e l d , and Henr ico, V i r g i n i a . There was no u n c o n s i t u t i o n a l 7 a c t which demanded a m u l t i - d i s t r i c t s o l u t i o n . In M il l i k e n v. B r adle y, 418 U.S. 717 (1974), t h e c o u r t ag ai n r u l e d out a m u l t i ­ d i s t r i c t remedy when i t found t h a t s u f f i c i e n t grounds had not been shown t o prove d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o r s e g r e g a t i v e i n t e n t on th e p a r t of t h e S t a t e o f Michigan or 53 d i s t r i c t s su rr ounding D e t r o i t . The c o u r t d i d n o t , however, r u l e o u t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a m u l t i - d i s t r i c t plan g where such i n t e n t could be shown. r Lewis C. Bose, " A f t e r Keyes and Bradley: The P r a c t i c a l i t i e s , " C u r r e n t Trends in School Law (Topeka: The Na tion al O r g a n i z a t i o n on Legal Problems o f Ed ucat io n, 1973), p. 193. ^Simpson, op. c i t . , p. 176. O U.S. Commission on C i v i l R i g h t s , Desegre ga tion o f t h e Nations P u b l i c Schools: A S t a t u s Report (Washington: U.S. Government P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , 1979), pp. 2-6. 18 These c a s e s , w h ile c e r t a i n l y not a l l i n c l u s i v e , do p r e s e n t a background f o r a study o f white f l i g h t from urban school d i s t r i c t s . I t i s n o t t h i s a u t h o r ' s i n t e n t t o s t a t e o r imply any r e l a t i o n s h i p between white f l i g h t and t h e d e c i s i o n s of t h e United S t a t e s Supreme Court. I t would seem u s e f u l , however, t o have a more complete u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f t h e c o u r t ca s es c i t e d above as a b a s i s f o r a s s e s s i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n on w h it e and m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t s in th e s c h o o ls . The d o c t r i n e o f s e p a r a t e b u t equal e s t a b l i s h e d by P le ss y in 1896 a c t u a l l y concerned a r a i l r o a d accommodations law from L o u i s i a n a , b u t i t was a p p l i e d t o s ch oo ls and led t o th e development o f th e d u a l , black and w h i t e , s c h o o ls systems of th e South. 9 . . A d i s s e n t i n g opi n io n by J u s t i c e Harlan in th e P l e s s y c as e was a h a l f - c e n t u r y ahead of i t s time. He s a i d , "Our C o n s t i t u t i o n i s c o l o r - b l i n d , n e i t h e r knows nor t o l e r a t e s c l a s s e s among c i t i z e n s . In r e s p e c t t o c i v i l r i g h t s , a l l c i t i z e n s a r e equal b e f o r e t h e l a w . " ^ I t was n o t u n t i l 1954 and Brown I t h a t J u s t i c e H a r l a n ' s views were r e f l e c t e d by th e c o u r t in a school d e s e g r e g a t i o n case . Brown I was a c t u a l l y a combination o f f o u r c a s e s coming from Kansas, South C a r o l i n a , V i r g i n i a , and Delaware. Each o f t h e f o u r cases in volved a blac k c h i l d r e q u e s t i o n t o a t t e n d a d e s e g r e g a t e d s c h o o l . ^ Q Robert J . Simpson, "Brown I: The H i s t o r i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e , " NOLPE School Law J o u r n a l , V o l . 8, No. 2 (1979): 113. ^"B row n v. Board o f Education of Topeka (Brown I ) , " C u r r e n t Education Law,Vol. 4, No. 3 (March 1974): 28. 19 In t h e Kansas ca s e Linda Brown was denied th e r i g h t t o a t t e n d a white ele m e n ta r y school f i v e blocks from her home and was r e q u i r e d to a t t e n d a b lack school more than f o u r times f u r t h e r away. 12 Kansas law p e r m i t t e d b u t d i d not r e q u i r e c i t i e s over 15,000 p o p u l a t i o n to m a in ta in s e p a r a t e school f a c i l i t i e s f o r black and white c h i l d r e n . 13 The c o u r t he ld t h a t s e p a r a t e was n o t equal th e r e b y i n i t i a t i n g th e e r a o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n . 14 While in Brown I t h e c o u r t r u le d t h a t dual school systems were u n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l , n o th in g much happened. A y e a r l a t e r the c o u r t a g ain e n t e r e d t h e school d e s e g r e g a t i o n aren a with Brown I I . In Brown I I t h e c o u r t r e q u i r e d a l l s t a t e s m a i n t a i n i n g dual systems to d e s e g r e g a t e "with a l l d e l i b e r a t e s p e e d ." 15 To accomplish t h i s end, t h e Supreme Court gave lower c o u r t s th e a u t h o r i t y t o o r d e r remedies where dual systems e x i s t e d . The lower c o u r t s were t o take l o c a l i n t e r e s t s i n t o ac count when o r d e r i n g r em edies, but were not t o a llo w th o s e i n t e r e s t s t o p r e v e n t remedies. 1 I t proved t o be one t h i n g t o o r d e r a remedy and sometimes a n o t h e r t o cause i t t o happen. In L i t t l e Rock, Ar kansas, r e s i s t a n c e t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s became so v i o l e n t t h a t th e Governor c a l l e d o u t th e National Guard and 12 H.C. Hudgins, J r . , "Brown and P u b l ic School S e g r e g a tio n : 25 Years Ago," NOLPE School Law J o u r n a l , Vol. 8, Mo. 2 (1979): 117. 13 League o f Women V o t e r s , op. c i t . , pp. 1-2. 14I b i d . 15I b i d . , p. 2. ^ "B row n v. Board o f Education o f Topeka, Kansas (Brown I I ) , " C u r r e n t Educ ation Law,Vol. 4, No. 3 (March 1974): 31-32. 20 d e c l a r e d C entral High School o f f l i m i t s f o r black s t u d e n t s . ^ As noted e a r l i e r th e c o u r t r u l e d in Cooper t h a t t h e r i g h t s o f c h i l d r e n t o a t t e n d i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls ca nn ot be " f r u s t r a t e d o r postponed because o f v i o l e n c e , d i s r u p t i o n o r o b j e c t i o n t o i n t e g r a t i o n . " The c o u r t o r d e re d f e d e r a l i n t e r v e n t i o n in t h e L i t t l e Rock s i t u a t i o n and r u l e d t h a t f e d e r a l f o r c e s could be used i f n e c e s s a r y t o e n f o r c e desegregation orders of the courts. 18 In Green th e c o u r t took a n o t h e r look a t t h e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f a school d i s t r i c t which had o p e r a t e d a l e g a l l y mandated dual system t o a c t a f f i r m a t i v e l y t o d e s e g r e g a t e . The Kent County V i r g i n i a School D i s t r i c t had o p e r a t e d a dual system with one e lem entary and one se co nd ary school each f o r blacks and w h it e s . Following Brown I I t h e Kent County Board o f Education adopted a freedom o f ch o i c e plan a l l o w i n g any s t u d e n t t o a t t e n d t h e school of h i s / h e r c h o i c e . No wh ite s t u d e n t s t r a n s f e r r e d t o th e black s c h o o ls and only 15 p e r c e n t o f t h e black s t u d e n t s t r a n s f e r r e d to t h e white s c h o o ls . 19 The c o u r t r u l e d t h a t school d i s t r i c t s with dual systems have an a f f i r m a t i v e o b l i g a t i o n t o pr ovid e a u n i t a r y system "now." Freedom o f ch o ice was n o t p r o h i b i t e d by t h e c o u r t but th e e f f e c t i v e n e s s of such a plan must be e v a l u a t e d . In t h e cas e o f Kent County freedom o f ch o ice was n o t enough and more a f f i r m a t i v e a c t i o n had t o be ta k e n . 20 17Ibi d . 18I b id . 19 pp. Green v. County School Board o f Kent County," op. c i t . , 35-36. 2 0 Ibid. 21 The c o u r t c o n t i n u e d t o look a t methods a v a i l a b l e t o school d i s t r i c t s t o d e s e g r e g a t e , and i n t h e landmark Swann d e c i s i o n s p e l l e d out a number o f remedies which could be ord ered by lower c o u r t s . While Swann i s o f t e n r e f e r r e d t o as t h e bus ing c a s e , t h e c o u r t did no t mandate bus ing f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n . I t d i d , however, al low th e o r d e r i n g o f busing where n e c e s s a r y " t o help c r e a t e a u n i t a r y system" and where t h e d i s t a n c e s in volved were " r e a s o n a b l e . " 21 The g e r r y ­ mandering o f a t t e n d a n c e a r e a s , t h e placement of new s c h o o l s , and the assign men t o f s t a f f in o r d e r t o b r in g ab out d e s e g r e g a t i o n were a l s o remedies allowed by th e c o u r t in Swann. The c o u r t d id n o t r e q u i r e equal r a c i a l b alan ce in a l l s c h o o ls b u t did r e q u i r e t h a t r e a s o n a b l e r a c i a l b a l a n c e be a c h i e v e d . The burden was p la c e d on school o f f i c i a l s t o prove t h a t r a c i a l imbalance i s n o t a f u n c t i o n of d e l i b e r a t e a c t s of d i s c r i m i n a t i o n , p a s t o r p r e s e n t . 22 Swann, l i k e t h e c a s e s b e f o r e i t , d e a l t only with l e g a l l y mandated dual systems o p e r a t e d in t h e South. Unlike i t s p r e d e c e s s o r s , however, Swann h i n t e d a t t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h e e x i s t e n c e o f i l l e g a l dual systems which were a f u n c t i o n o f school board a c t i o n s and not le g a l mandate. In Swann, th e c o u r t a l e r t e d t h e North t o d e s e g r e g a ­ t i o n concer ns when i t s a i d t h a t while pr edominantly one r ace schools do n o t o f them se lves i n d i c a t e s e g r e g a t i v e a c t i o n s by a school 21 Robert J . Simpson, " D es egre gati on Since Swann and Keyes," C u r r e n t Trends i n School Law (Topeka: The National O r g a n i z a t i o n on Legal Problems of E d u c a t io n , 1973), pp. 179-180. 22 Bose, op. c it., p. 189. 22 d i s t r i c t , t h e i r pr esen ce b r in g s a presumption o f such a c t i o n s which school o f f i c i a l s be a r t h e burden to d i s p r o v e . The c o u r t came n o r th with Keyes. 23 In looking a t t h e Denver s c h o o ls t h e c o u r t s a i d t h a t t h e day t o day a c t i o n s o f a board o f e d u c a tio n can have t h e e f f e c t o f c r e a t i n g a dual system even in th e absence o f s t a t u t e . Where such a c t i o n s as t h e placement o f new s c h o o l s , t h e drawing o f a t t e n d a n c e l i n e s , and th e as signm ent of s t a f f r e s u l t s in r a c i a l l y i d e n t i f i a b l e s c h o o l s , then i t can be assumed t h a t s e g r e g a t i o n i s th e r e s u l t of such a c t i o n and t h e Swann remedies must be a p p l i e d . 24 The c o u r t f u r t h e r r u l e d in Keyes t h a t where s e g r e g a t i v e i n t e n t i s found in one p a r t of a school d i s t r i c t , t h e r e i s a presumption of such i n t e n t in a l l o t h e r p a r t s , so th e remedies o r d e r e d may apply t o t h e e n t i r e d i s t r i c t . 25 M e tr o p o l i t a n d e s e g r e g a t i o n plans do e x i s t as i l l u s t r a t e d by the county d i s t r i c t s in F l o r i d a and J e f f e r s o n County, Kentucky. These p la n s g e n e r a l l y in v o lv e a school d i s t r i c t c o - e x i s t i n g w i th a single p o litic a l u n it. E ffo rts to cross d i s t r i c t l in e s to formulate a d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n have been a d i f f e r e n t s t o r y . In B r a d le y , t h e Supreme Court d i v i d e d f o u r - f o u r t o l e t s ta n d an a p p e a ls c o u r t reversal of a d i s t r i c t c o u r t 's order fo r m etropolitan desegregation. ^ M a r t h a M. McCarthy and L. Dean Webb, " I n t r a - D i s t r i c t D es eg reg a tio n Remedies," NOLPE School Law J o u r n a l , Vol. 8, No. 2 (1979): 130. 24 Bose, op. c i t . , p. 193. ^ M c C a r t h y , op. c i t . , p. 132. *?fk U.S. Commission on C ivil R ights, op. c it., p. 2. 23 The c o u r t o f ap p e a ls found no " j o i n t i n t e r a c t i o n " among t h e t h r e e d i s t r i c t s i n v o l v e d , t h e r e f o r e , no u n c o n s t i t u t i o n a l a c t . 27 The c o u r t went on t o say t h a t th e c o n s t i t u t i o n does n o t r e q u i r e t h e impo­ s i t i o n o f a f i x e d r a c i a l quota as c a l l e d f o r in t h e t h r e e d i s t r i c t Richmond plan. 28 In M i l l i k e n , th e c o u r t , on a f i v e - f o u r v o t e , did n o t allow m e t r o p o l i t a n r e l i e f f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n in th e D e t r o i t s c h o o ls . The c o u r t r u l e d t h a t s u f f i c i e n t grounds o f d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o r s e g r e g a t i o n i n t e n t on t h e p a r t of t h e s t a t e o r th e 53 suburban d i s t r i c t s was not established. 29 M il l i k e n did not r u l e out i n t e r - d i s t r i c t r e l i e f , but r e q u i r e d th e showing o f s e g r e g a t i v e i n t e n t on t h e p a r t o f th e s t a t e o r t h e suburban d i s t r i c t s in v o lv ed . The c o u r t has had only l i m i t e d oc c a s io n t o apply th e t e s t s e t in M i l l i k e n , so i t s r eal e f f e c t is s t i l l a m atter of supposition. 30 An i n t e r e s t i n g o p p o r t u n i t y t o apply M il l i k e n may be deve loping in th e U.S. D i s t r i c t C o urt, Western D i s t r i c t o f Michigan, Southern D i v i s i o n , where Judge Fox has o r d e r e d t h e Benton Harbor, Eau C l a i r e , and Coloma school d i s t r i c t s to develop a m u l t i - d i s t r i c t d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n . R elated S tu d i e s The opening round in th e c o n t i n u i n g d e b a t e over t h e r e l a t i o n ­ s h ip between school d e s e g r e g a t i o n , e s p e c i a l l y where c o u r t o r d e r e d , 27 Simpson, op. c i t . , p. 176. 28 " I n t e r - D i s t r i c t Busing f o r I n t e g r a t i o n , " C u r r e n t Education Law,Vol. 3, No. 8 (November 1973): 226. 29 U.S. Commission 30Ib id ., p. 7. on Civil Rights, op. c it., p. 2. 24 and whit e f l i g h t came with a r e p o r t by James Coleman in 1975. 31 Coleman s t a t e d a concern t h a t : At th e same time t h a t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n was o c c u r r i n g in many school d i s t r i c t s o f th e c o u n t r y , an opposing t r e n d was o c c u r r i n g in th e s e g r e g a t i o n o f w h ite and Black c h i l d r e n among school d i s t r i c t s . 32 This t r e n d , he c o n te n d s , i s e f f e c t i v e l y r e s e g r e g a t i n g s c h o o ls as well as having a d e l e t e r i o u s e f f e c t on t hose c i t i e s in which w h ite s a r e l e a v i n g f o r th e s ubu rb s. The q u e s t i o n t o which Coleman d i r e c t e d h i s s t u d i e s , t h e r e f o r e , was "whether t h i s l o s s o f w h it e s from c e n t r a l c i t y s c h o o ls i s a c c e l e r a t e d when s u b s t a n t i a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n takes place. Coleman's s tu d y , by h is d e f i n i t i o n , in c l u d e d t h e 21 l a r g e s t school d i s t r i c t s in t h e n a t i o n and th e 46 n e x t l a r g e s t . He measured t h e change in t h e number of wh ite s t u d e n t s in t h e s e d i s t r i c t s between 1967 and 1973. 34 In a l a t e r study Coleman a t te m p te d t o a d j u s t f o r o u tm i g r a t i o n of w h ites n o t r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n by p r o j e c t i n g what t h e change in th e number o f wh ite s t u d e n t s would be w i t h o u t d e s e g r e g a t i o n based on e x p e r i e n c e b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n o c c u r r e d . He then compared t h i s p r o j e c t i o n wit h t h e a c t u a l change in t h e number o f wh ite s t u d e n t s when d e s e g r e g a t i o n o ccu r red . 35 31 David J. Armor, White F l i g h t Demographic T r a n s i t i o n , and The F u tu re o f School Des egre ga ti on (Santa Monica: The Rand C o r p . , 1978), p. 1. 32 James S. Coleman, " L i b e r t y and E q u a li t y i n School Desegre­ g a t i o n , " Social Pol i c y ,Vol. 6, No. 4 ( J a n . / F e b . 1976): 9. 331 b i d . , p. 10. 34 35 Armor, op. c i t . , pp. 3-4. Coleman, op. c i t . , p. 12. 25 Coleman concluded from h i s s t u d i e s t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n does a c c e l e r a t e t h e l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s , p a r t i c u l a r l y in th o s e d i s t r i c t s with a l a r g e p r o p o r t i o n o f blac k s t u d e n t s where suburbs w ith l a r g e l y white p o p u l a t i o n s a r e a v a i l a b l e . This c o n c l u s io n may be s o f t e n e d , however, by th e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t t h e a c c e l e r a t i o n o f w h ite l o s s may be o f s h o r t d u r a t i o n . The l o s s in th e y e a r s f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n ten d t o be much s m a l l e r than dur in g t h e a c t u a l y e a r of d e s e g re g a t i o n . 36 Coleman ad voca tes t h r e e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s t o c o r r e c t t h e harmful e f f e c t s o f white f l i g h t from c e n t r a l c i t i e s . F i r s t he i s concerned t h a t th e c o u r t s have tend ed t o d e f i n e a l l s e g r e g a t i o n as de j u r e . Coleman f e e l s t h a t s e g r e g a t i o n r e s u l t i n g from wholly i n d i v i d u a l a c t i o n s , such as l i v i n g p a t t e r n s , i s c l e a r l y de f a c t o . His f i r s t p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e r e f o r e , i s t o c o r r e c t t r u l y de j u r e s e g r e g a t i o n only. would n o t s t a b i l i z e He concedes t h a t t h i s c i t i e s b u t i t would end t h e a c c e l e r a t i o n The second p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e i s of central w h i te f l i g h t . t o r e q u i r e th e end o f s e g r e g a t i o n in m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s by b us in g. Coleman b e l i e v e s t h a t th e n a t u r e o f a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a l i m i t s t h e o p p o r t u n i t y f o r whites t o c o n v e n i e n t l y move t o a n o n - a f f e c t e d a r e a . He does i n d i c a t e t h a t some may s t i l l e l e c t t o move o u t o f t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a o r t r a n s f e r t h e i r c h i l d r e n t o p r i v a t e s c h o o ls . The t h i r d p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e i s t o a l l o w any c h i l d t o a t t e n d any school in t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , in h i s / h e r school d i s t r i c t or 26 a n o t h e r , " t h a t d id n o t have a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f h i s / h e r r a c e than th e school t o which h e / s h e would be a s s i g n e d . " The r e c e i v i n g school could n o t r e f u s e a d m itt a n c e as long as th ey did n o t exceed 20 p e r c e n t o f t h e i r e n r o l lm e n t from o u t o f d i s t r i c t s t u d e n t s . 37 Reynolds F a r le y i s one o f a number o f s o c i o l o g i s t s who have conducted s t u d i e s to d eter m in e i f i n t e g r a t i o n has been a major cause o f white f l i g h t as claimed by James Coleman. In h i s s tu d y F a r le y i n c lu d e d a l l c i t i e s with a p o p u l a t i o n of 100,000 or more in 1970. From t h i s l i s t he d e l e t e d th o s e c i t i e s where b la c k s made up 3 p e r c e n t or l e s s o f th e p u b l i c school e n r o l l m e n t . This r e s u l t e d in a study group o f 50 s o u th e r n and 75 n o r t h e r n c i t i e s . 38 F a r l e y ' s f i r s t s t e p was t o measure r a c i a l s e g r e g a t i o n in th e s chools of each c i t y . A f a c t o r was e s t a b l i s h e d whereby a c i t y with t o t a l l y s e g r e g a t e d s c h o o ls was r a t e d 100 while a c i t y with t o t a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d s c h o o ls was r a t e d 0. The l e v e l o f s e g r e g a t i o n was determined in 1967 and 1972. The p e r c e n t a g e o f change in wh ite e n r o l lm e n t f o r each c i t y between 1967 and 1972 was c a l c u l a t e d . I t was assumed t h a t i f d e s e g ­ r e g a t i o n produces white f l i g h t , th o s e d i s t r i c t s whose s e g r e g a t i o n s c o r e s f e l l d r a s t i c a l l y should a l s o have l o s t many wh it e s t u d e n t s . F a r le y t e s t e d t o see i f changes in white e n r o l lm e n t were r e l a t e d t o changes in school s e g r e g a t i o n by drawing graphs f o r both t h e s o u th er n and th e n o r t h e r n group o f s c h o o ls i l l u s t r a t i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p . 37I b i d . , p. 13. 33Reynolds F a r l e y , " I s Coleman Right?" Soc ial Pol i c y ,Vol. 6, No. 4 ( J a n . / F e b . 1976): 15. 27 For both a r e a s th e p o i n t s on th e graphs were w ide ly s c a t t e r e d i n d i ­ c a t i n g no s tr o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between white f l i g h t and changes in school s e g r e g a t i o n . 39 Since Coleman had s t a t e d t h a t l a r g e c i t i e s were most l i k e l y t o e x p e r ie n c e a c c e l e r a t e d whit e f l i g h t due t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n , F a r le y looked s p e c i f i c a l l y a t t h e 20 l a r g e s t c i t i e s l o c a t e d both in t h e North and t h e South. Once agai n t h e p o i n t s on t h e graph were widely s c a t t e r e d i n d i c a t i n g no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between white f l i g h t and school i n t e g r a t i o n in l a r g e c i t i e s . F a r le y a l s o t e s t e d t h e h y p o th e s is t h a t d i s t r i c t s which had a high p r o p o r t i o n o f black e n r o l l m e n t in 1967 would have a h i g h e r l o s s o f w h ite s in a n t i c i p a t i o n o f i n t e g r a t i o n . When lo okin g a t t h e s e s c h o o ls t h e r e was a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t f e a r of i n t e g r a t i o n in c i t i e s with high p r o p o r t i o n s o f blac k e n r o l l m e n t did l e a d t o white f l i g h t . I t was p o i n t e d o u t , however, t h a t t h e s e same c i t i e s may be c h a r a c t e r i z e d by high crime r a t e s , u n f a v o r a b l e t a x r a t e s , and o t h e r problems making them l e s s d e s i r a b l e t o th o s e a b l e t o leav e. F i n a l l y F a r l e y t e s t e d a model with two v a r i a b l e s , change in school s e g r e g a t i o n , and p r o p o r t i o n o f b l a c k s in 1967. We s p e c u l a t e d t h a t w h ite s would be p a r t i c u l a r l y prone to leave p u b l i c s c h o o ls in t h o s e c i t i e s in which s c h o o ls were i n t e g r a t e d and t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f Blacks was high . . . . In n e i t h e r South nor North d i d we f i n d ev idence s u p p o r t i n g t h i s h y p o t h e s i s . That i s us in g two 39Ib id ., p. 16. 28 v a r i a b l e s — change in school s e g r e g a t i o n and t h e p r o ­ p o r t i o n o f Black s t u d e n t s in 1967— proved no more e f f e c t i v e in p r e d i c t i n g changes in w h ite e n r o l l m e n t than d i d us in g j u s t t h e change in s e g r e g a t i o n . 40 F a r l e y concedes t h a t t h e number o f white s t u d e n t s i s d e c l i n i n g in school d i s t r i c t s with a high p r o p o r t i o n o f bla ck s t u d e n t s and t h a t t h e s e ten d t o be c e n t r a l c i t y d i s t r i c t s . Many o f t h e s e d i s ­ t r i c t s , however, because of m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s , became l a r g e l y black be f o re t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n of busing f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n . F a r l e y conc lude s t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s n o t a major cause o f white f l i g h t . He b e l i e v e s t h a t bu sing f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s one good to o l f o r t h e s h o r t run. In t h e long run he f e e l s t h a t changing a t t i t u d e s can make p o s s i b l e r e s i d e n t i a l i n t e g r a t i o n and end th e problem. C h r i s t i n e R o s se ll i s concerned t h a t Coleman's r e s u l t s a r e due t o a fundamental e r r o r in h i s measurement o f t h e phenomenon o f wh ite f l i g h t . ^ She s t a t e s t h a t " j u s t lo oking a t th e white e n r o l l ­ ment b e f o r e and a f t e r school d e s e g r e g a t i o n . . . o b s c u re s t h e f a c t t h a t w h i le t h e r e may be a l o s s o f w h ite s i n c u r r e d a f t e r school d e s e g r e g a t i o n , i t i s u s u a l l y no g r e a t e r th an l o s s e s i n c u r r e d in p r e v io u s y e a r s . " 42 She i s f u r t h e r concerned t h a t Coleman's d e f i n i ­ t i o n o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n , as any s i t u a t i o n where s i g n i f i c a n t numbers o f b la ck and w h ite c h i l d r e n a r e in t h e same school a t th e 40 I b i d . , p. 17. ^ C h r i s t i n e H. R o s s e l l , "School D e s e g re g a tio n and White F l i g h t , " P o l i t i c a l S cien ce Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 90, No. 4 (Winter 1975-76): 676. 29 same t i m e , o bs cure s t h e e f f e c t s o f g h e t t o expa ns io n. When a g h e t t o begins expansion i n t o a p r e v i o u s l y white a r e a t h e r e s u l t a n t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s " u n s t a b l e and tem pora ry ." 43 R o s se ll conducted a s tudy o f 86 n o r th e r n school d i s t r i c t s t e s t i n g t h e co n c e p t t h a t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n c o n t r i b u t e s s i g n i f i ­ c a n t l y t o white f l i g h t . The school d i s t r i c t s involved were, f o r th e most p a r t , medium t o l a r g e c i t y school d i s t r i c t s . She d e f i n e d school d e s e g r e g a t i o n "as th e re ass ig nm ent o f blac k o r whit e s t u d e n t s by a l o c a l governmental body o r c o u r t f o r t h e purposes o f school in teg ratio n ." 44 Data was c o l l e c t e d on th e s c h o o ls in each of th e 86 d i s t r i c t s showing t h e number o f black and white s t u d e n t s e n r o l l e d t h e f i r s t y e a r o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and t h e pr e c e d in g y e a r . The d i f f e r e n c e between th e two y e a r s was a t t r i b u t e d t o a d m i n i s t r a t i v e a c t i o n i f i t con­ trib u te d to increased in te g ra tio n . The p e r c e n t a g e o f blac k s t u d e n t s r e a s s i g n e d and t h e p e r c e n ta g e o f white s t u d e n t s r e a s s i g n e d was com­ pu te d f o r each d i s t r i c t . The two p e r c e n t a g e s were added t o g e t h e r t o form an index o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n f o r th e d i s t r i c t . The e f f e c t of school d e s e g r e g a t i o n on wh ite l o s s was determined by p l o t t i n g th e p e r c e n t a g e o f whit e l o s s f o r as many y e a r s b e f o r e and a f t e r major d e s e g r e g a t i o n as t h e e n r o l l m e n t d a t a d i v i d e d by r a c e was a v a i l a b l e • • 45 and t e s t i n g t h e amount o f change in r a t e f o r s i g n i f i c a n c e . 43I b i d . , p. 679. 4 4 Ibi d . 45I b i d . , pp. 678-680. 30 In looking a t th e r e s u l t s o f t h i s study R o s se ll grouped th e 86 d i s t r i c t s i n t o f i v e group s; c o u r t o r d e r e d , high d e s e g r e g a t i o n (over 20 p e r c e n t ) , medium d e s e g r e g a t i o n (5-20 p e r c e n t ) , low d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n (und er 5 p e r c e n t ) , and a c o n t r o l group with no d e s e g r e g a t i o n . She f u r t h e r d i v i d e d th e d i s t r i c t s by c i t y s i z e m a i n t a i n i n g t h e f i v e groupings w i t h i n each o f t h r e e s i z e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n s . The da ta o b t a i n e d le d R os se ll t o conclude t h a t school d e s e g r e g a t i o n does not s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e w h ite l o s s even in l a r g e c i t i e s as Coleman c la im s. She does p o i n t out t h a t such i n c r e a s e in white l o s s as i s ob serv ed, occu rs t h e y e a r b e f o r e implem entation o f major d e s e g r e g a ­ tion. R o s se ll a d v i s e s school a d m i n i s t r a t o r s to t a k e t h i s f a c t o r s e r i o u s l y and " c o n c e n t r a t e t h e i r e f f o r t s on e l i m i n a t i n g f e a r and c o n t r o v e r s y b e fore t h e plan i s implemented." 46 In a l a t e r s tu d y o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n and whit e f l i g h t in Boston, R o s se ll compared t h e r a t e o f w h ite l o s s b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n to the r a t e o f wh ite l o s s dur in g and a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n . There was a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e o f white l o s s which could be a t t r i b u t e d t o school d e s e g r e g a t i o n f o r th e two y e a r s f o ll o w i n g im plem en tation . A f t e r two y e a r s , however, R o s se ll c laim s t h a t t h e r a t e o f whit e l o s s was no g r e a t e r than b e f o r e im plem en tation o f school d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Indeed she f e l t t h a t t h e r e was e v id en ce t h a t t h e p a t t e r n of white l o s s was r e v e r s i n g as w h ite s t u d e n t s r e t u r n to Boston p u b l i c s c h o o ls from p a r o c h i a l s c h o o l s . 47 4 6 I b i d . , p. 684. 47 C h r i s t i n e H. R o s s e l l , " B o s t o n 's D es eg reg a tio n and White F l i g h t , " I n t e g r a t e d Education, Vol. 15 ( J a n . / F e b . 1977): 36-39. 31 R o s se ll s t a t e s t h a t d e s p i t e claims t o t h e c o n t r a r y and in t h e f a c e o f "prolonged d e f in a n c e " by c i t y l e a d e r s , white e n r o llm e n t has s t a b i l i z e d in Boston. She says t h a t h e r s tu d y shows t h a t Boston has s u c c e s s f u l l y and d r a m a t i c a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d i t s s c h o o ls with only a l i m i t e d and temporary i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e o f wh ite l o s s . 43 Robert L. Green and Thomas F. P e t t i g r e w took s t r o n g e x c e p ti o n t o t h e c o n c l u s io n s e x p r e s s e d by Coleman. 49 I t is t h e i r contention t h a t th e Coleman s t u d i e s do n o t show a t r u e r e l a t i o n s h i p between i n t e g r a t i o n and white f l i g h t . The d a t a , th ey s a y , a c t u a l l y s u g g e s t s t h a t white f l i g h t i s a f u n c t i o n o f a " c o n d i t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p between d e s e g r e g a t i o n in p a r t i c u l a r s i t u a t i o n s r e l a t e d t o t h e p e r ­ c e n t a g e o f blac k c h i l d r e n in a l a r g e c e n t r a l c i t y ' s p u b l i c s c h o o ls . 1,88 Green and P e t t i g r e w a l s o d i s p u t e Coleman's c o n t e n t i o n t h a t t h e r e i s a massive l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s in t h e f i r s t y e a r of desegregation. They cl aim t h a t Coleman's d a t a a r e unduly skewed by Memphis and A t l a n t a . Without t h e s e two " a t y p i c a l s o u th e r n c i t i e s , " th ey c o n te n d , t h e r e i s no evid en ce o f t h e "massive" l o s s c i t e d . Green and P e t t i g r e w accu se Coleman o f ig n o r i n g f a c t o r s not r e l a t e d t o i n t e g r a t i o n which e f f e c t white l o s s d a t a . They p o i n t t o d e c l i n i n g white b i r t h r a t e s i n p a r t i c u l a r along with "non48I b i d . , p. 39. ^ R o b e r t L. Green and Thomas F. P e t t i g r e w , " P u b l ic School D e s e g re g a tio n and White F l i g h t : A Reply t o P r o f e s s o r Coleman," p r e p a r e d f o r t h e United S t a t e s C i v i l Rights Commission, Washington, D.C., December 8, 1975 ( u n p ubli s hed r e p o r t ) . 50I b i d . , p. 7. 32 e d u c a t i o n a l urban problems t h a t d r i v e both white and black f a m i l i e s Cl out of the c i t y . " They f u r t h e r claim t h a t Coleman assumes t h a t any wh ite l o s s beyond t h e ex pected number was integration. white f l i g h t due to This assumption by Coleman, they s t a t e , was made w i t h ­ out a c t u a l l y as kin g any white f a m i l i e s why th e y moved. The i n t e g r i t y o f Coleman's r e s e a r c h a l s o comes under q u e s t i o n by Green and P e t t i g r e w . They p o i n t o u t t h a t th e 19 d i s t r i c t s used by Coleman i n h i s f i r s t study ar e n o t th e l a r g e s t 19 urban school d i s t r i c t s in t h e n a t i o n . For example they claim t h a t th e Miami-Dade, J a c k s o n v i l l e - D u v a l , and Ft. Lauderdale-Broward d i s t r i c t s in F l o r i d a ar e l a r g e r than s e v e r a l used by Coleman i n c l u d i n g t h e one F l o r i d a d i s t r i c t Coleman used which was Tampa-Hillsborough. The i n c l u s i o n o f t h e s e d i s t r i c t s could have changed th e r e s u l t s . In h i s second a n a l y s i s Coleman added Denver and San F r a n c is c o t o r a i s e t h e number o f l a r g e s t d i s t r i c t s t o 21. These d i s t r i c t s were added because in Coleman's judgment th ey were two o f t h e few n o r th e r n c i t i e s e x p e r i e n c i n g e x t e n s i v e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Green and P e t t i g r e w f e e l t h a t t h e a d d i t i o n o f Denver and San F r a n c i s c o wh ile e x c lu d in g Albuquerque, Nashvi1le- D av id so n , and C har lot te -M ec kl en burg d i s t r i c t s , which f i t Coleman's c r i t e r i a a t l e a s t as w e l l , had the p r e d i c t a b l e e f f e c t o f r e i n f o r c i n g Coleman's e a r l i e r c o n c l u s io n s . To t e s t Coleman's c o n c l u s io n s Green and P e t t i g r e w s e t up a model i n c l u d i n g Coleman's 21 l a r g e s t d i s t r i c t s p lus Miami, J ack so n­ v i l l e , Ft. La uderd ale, N a s h v i l l e , Albuquerque, C h a r l o t t e , Newark, 51 I b i d . , p. 11. 33 C i n c i n n a t i , and S e a t t l e . All o f t h e s e d i s t r i c t s exceed 75,000 s t u d e n t s which they c la im conform t o Coleman's c r i t e r i a . The amount o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n from 1968 t o 1973 and t h e p e r ­ cen tag e o f wh ite l o s s over t h e s e same y e a r s was computed f o r each of th e 30 d i s t r i c t s . To compare t h e s e two v a r i a b l e s a graph was developed with f o u r q u a d r a n t s : "high d e s e g r e g a t i o n and low l o s s of white s t u d e n t s ; high d e s e g r e g a t i o n and high l o s s ; low d e s e g r e g a t i o n and low l o s s ; and low d e s e g r e g a t i o n and high l o s s . " 52 To s u p p o r t Coleman's p o s i t i o n th e d i s t r i c t s should f a l l pr ed ominantly in the high d e s e g r e g a t i o n - h i g h l o s s and t h e low d e s e g r e g a t i o n - l o w l o s s quadrants. When p l o t t e d on t h e graph t h e r e was no p a t t e r n . were s c a t t e r e d . The p o i n t s Green and P e t t i g r e w i n t e r p r e t t h i s t o mean no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p e x i s t s between th e amount o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and white l o s s . They f u r t h e r p o i n t to Memphis, A t l a n t a , Denver, and San F r a n c i s c o as d i s t r i c t s which do f i t Coleman's p a t t e r n . These f o u r d i s t r i c t s , th ey c l a i m , had a g r e a t deal t o do with t h e p o s i t i v e a s s o c i a t i o n s ach ieve d by Coleman. The a d d i t i o n o f the nine l e f t out by Coleman e l i m i n a t e d t h a t r e l a t i o n s h i p . In a second t e s t Green and P e t t i g r e w compared th e 1968 black p r o p o r t i o n o f e n r o l l m e n t with white l o s s between 1968 and 1973. t h i s i n s t a n c e a r e l a t i o n s h i p was shown. In Those d i s t r i c t s with a high p r o p o r t i o n o f b la c k s in 1968 e x p e r ie n c e d a high w h ite l o s s by 1973. This r e l a t i o n s h i p was n o t r e l a t e d t o d i s t r i c t s i z e . 52Ibid., p. 30. These r e s u l t s 34 a r e i n t e r p r e t e d t o show t h a t l e v e l o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and d i s t r i c t s i z e a r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y r e l a t e d t o whit e l o s s but t h a t t h e p r o ­ p o r t i o n o f b lack e n r o l lm e n t i s a p r e d i c t o r of wh ite l o s s . A t h i r d t e s t compared white l o s s e s and blac k g a in s in e n r o l l ­ ment in t h e 30 d i s t r i c t s s t u d i e d by Green and P e t t i g r e w . c o r r e l a t i o n was e s t a b l i s h e d . decreased. A negative As white l o s s e s i n c r e a s e d , blac k gains In o t h e r words, black and w h i te e n r o l lm e n t s te n d t o r i s e and f a l l t o g e t h e r . This would i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e same non­ d e s e g r e g a t i o n urban problems i n f l u e n c e both wh ite and blac k e n r o l l ­ ments. Green and P e t t i g r e w s t a t e t h a t t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e i r s t u d i e s lead t o a c o n c l u s io n t h a t " s t a r k l y c o n t r a s t s " from t h a t o f Coleman's. They conclude t h a t when t h e n a t i o n ' s " t r u l y l a r g e s t " urban d i s t r i c t s a r e s t u d i e d in l i g h t o f a f i v e y e a r t r e n d t h e r e i s no d i s c e r n i b l e r e l a t i o n s h i p between d e s e g r e g a t i o n and white l o s s . They a l s o p o i n t o u t t h a t what happens with blac k e n r o l lm e n t s i s a l s o i m p o r t a n t and must be i n c l u d e d i n any c a r e f u l s tu d y . Michael W. G iles s t u d i e d t h e s t a b i l i t y o f r a c i a l b alan ce in one d e s e g r e g a t e d school d i s t r i c t , Duval County, F l o r i d a . 53 Duval County i s a m e t r o p o l i t a n d i s t r i c t which i n c l u d e s J a c k s o n v i l l e . It i s t h e t h i r t e e n t h l a r g e s t school d i s t r i c t in t h e n a t i o n w it h over 120,000 s t u d e n t s , of which a p p r o x im a te ly 30 p e r c e n t a r e b la c k . 54 ^ M i c h a e l W. G i l e s , "Racial S t a b i l i t y and Urban School D e s e g r e g a t i o n , " Urban A f f a i r s Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 12, No. 4 (June 1977): 499-510. 54Ib id ., p. 501. 35 The d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f Duval County s c h o o ls took p l a c e in s e v e r a l stages. In May 1963 th e f e d e r a l d i s t r i c t c o u r t o r d e r e d Duval to implement a modified freedom o f ch oic e p l a n . Under t h i s p lan s t u d e n t s were given the r i g h t t o t r a n s f e r t o any school w i t h i n t h e d i s t r i c t . By 1967 th e c o u r t de ter mined t h a t freedom o f ch o ice was n o t working and o r d e re d t h e school board t o develop n o n - r a c i a l a t t e n d a n c e patterns. That o r d e r was l a r g e l y ign ore d and in 1970 th e c o u r t o r d e r e d t h e school board t o implement a d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n . While t h i s pl an did have s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t , over h a l f o f t h e black s t u d e n t s were s t i l l in n e a r l y a l l black s c h o o ls by t h e end o f th e 1970-71 school y e a r . The c o u r t then o r d e re d a f i n a l , massive d e s e g r e g a t i o n plan f o r t h e 1972-73 school y e a r , which d id e r a d i c a t e t h e dual system o f e d u c a t i o n in Duval County. G il e s t h e o r i z e d t h a t w hites might leave a d e s e g r e g a t i n g school d i s t r i c t a t e a r l y s t a g e s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n or d u r in g th e y e a r s fo ll o w i n g im plem en tation. To t e s t t h i s he c o l l e c t e d d a t a on th e r a c i a l b a lan ces p r o j e c t e d f o r 1972 and th o s e a c t u a l l y observed f o r 1972. He a l s o c o l l e c t e d d a t a on r a c i a l b alan ce i n 1974. From h i s d a t a G iles concluded t h a t t h e r e was s i g n i f i c a n t w h ite l o s s , p a r t i c u l a r l y a t t h e elem entary l e v e l , in a n t i c i p a t i o n of d e s e g r e g a t i o n in 1972. Following d e s e g r e g a t i o n , however, r a c i a l b alan ce remained r e l a t i v e l y s t a b l e . Most o f t h e w h ite l o s s could be acc ou nted f o r by i n c r e a s e s in t h e p r i v a t e school e n r o l l m e n t s . Loss t o th e p r i v a t e s c h o o ls tended to be temporary as i n d i c a t i o n s were t h a t s t u d e n t s r e t u r n e d from p r i v a t e t o p u b l i c s c h o o ls as th ey reached j u n i o r a n d / o r s e n i o r high l e v e l . 36 G i le s does p o i n t o u t t h a t Duval i s a g e o g r a p h i c a l l y l a r g e d i s t r i c t which does l i m i t th e a b i l i t y o f i t s p o p u l a t i o n t o avoid desegregation. He does n o t s p e c u l a t e f u r t h e r as t o t h e e f f e c t t h i s may have had on h i s stu dy. In a b r o a d e r study c overing seven F l o r i d a c o u n t i e s , G i le s along with E v e r e t t C ataldo and Douglas G a t l i n , looked a t t h e impact o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n on p r i v a t e school e n r o l l m e n t s . The seven c o u n t i e s in volved were Dade (Miami), Duval ( J a c k s o n v i l l e ) , Esambia (Pensec o l a ) , Lee ( F t. Meyers), Leon ( T a l l a h a s s e e ) , Manatee ( B r a d e n to n ), and Palm Beach (West Palm Beach). They did f i n d t h a t p r i v a t e school e n r o l l m e n t s grew by one t h i r d durin g t h e p e r i o d of i n t e g r a t i o n . Inasmuch as a l l F l o r i d a s c h o o ls ar e county systems and a l l were d e s e g r e g a t e d between 1968 and 1972 t h e r e was no p l a c e f o r w hites t o f l e e e x c e p t t o p r i v a t e s c h o o ls . 55 G i l e s , e t a l . , found t h a t growth o f p r i v a t e s c h o o l s , w h ile r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n , did n o t occu r u nifo rmly th ro u g h o u t th e seven c o u n t i e s . They found t h a t a t i p p i n g f a c t o r o p e r a t e d . That i s , when a p u b l i c school rea ch ed a l e v e l o f 30 p e r c e n t blac k e n r o l l ­ ment, th e l o s s o f w h ite e n r o l l m e n t a c c e l e r a t e d . They found t h a t p u b l i c s c h o o ls w ith 29 p e r c e n t or l e s s black e n r o l lm e n t l o s t white s t u d e n t s a t t h e av er ag e r a t e of 2. 4 p e r c e n t p e r y e a r . Schools with over 30 p e r c e n t black e n r o l lm e n t l o s t w h ite s t u d e n t s a t t h e av er ag e r a te of 6.3 percent per year. They f u r t h e r concluded t h a t busin g or Michael W. G i l e s , E v e r e t t F. C a t a ld o , Douglas S. G a t l i n , "D es eg reg ati o n and t h e P r i v a t e School A l t e r n a t i v e , " Symposium on School D es egre ga tion (August 1975), pp. 21-31. 37 th e d i s t a n c e s t u d e n t s were bused d id n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y impact white s t u d e n t s l e a v i n g as along as th e school in volv ed had n o t rea ch ed th e " t i p p i n g p o i n t " o f 30 p e r c e n t b lack e n r o l l m e n t . A f i n a l f i n d i n g of t h e i r stu d y was t h a t white l o s s was n o t r e l a t e d t o t h e r a c i a l views o r up b r in g in g o f t h e f a m i l i e s i n volved b u t t h a t i t i s r e l a t e d t o th e f a m i l i e s ' a b i l i t y t o a f f o r d p r i v a t e school t u i t i o n . 56 Luther Munford in a study done i n M i s s i s s i p p i clai m s t h a t t i p p i n g i s n o t a t r u e f a c t o r in w h i te l o s s . He cl ai m s t h a t a school p o p u l a t i o n can pass 30 p e r c e n t black e n r o l l m e n t w i t h o u t long range t i p p i n g as long as t h e p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o o f t h e community remains stable. White s t u d e n t s may l e a v e t h e school t e m p o r a r i l y , b u t they w ill retu rn . Munford claims t h a t white l o§s i s due t o h o s t i l i t y and t h a t t h e l e v e l of h o s t i l i t y i s r e l a t e d t o th e community p o p u l a t i o n r a t i o and n o t t o school p o p u l a t i o n . 57 Char les C l o t f e l t e r s t u d i e d t h e r o l e o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n in th e demand f o r p r i v a t e schools e s p e c i a l l y in r e l a t i o n s h i p t o th e e x i s t CO ence o f a t i p p i n g p o i n t . In h i s s t u d y C l o t f e l t e r viewed d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n in t h e l i g h t o f white and no n-w hite r a t h e r th a n whit e and black as do most d e s e g r e g a t i o n s t u d i e s . He s t a t e s t h a t between 1961 and 1971 n o n - C a t h o l ic p r i v a t e school e n r o l lm e n t grew from 0 . 7 m i l l i o n 56I b i d . , p. 30. 57 L uther Munford, "Schools t h a t Quit T ipping in M i s s i s s i p p i , " Symposium on School D es egre ga tion (August 1975), pp. 33-42. 58C harles T. C l o t f e l t e r , "School D e s e g r e g a t i o n , ' T i p p i n g , ' and P r i v a t e School E n r o ll m e n t," The J o u rn a l o f Human R e s ources, Vol. XI, No. 1 (Winter 1976): 28-49. 38 t o 1.4 m i l l i o n with t h e l a r g e s t growth coming in t h e South where the major d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s o f t h a t e r a took p l a c e . C lotfelter p o i n t s o u t t h a t m e t r o p o l i t a n d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n s , which more o f te n occu r in t h e South, s h a r p l y r e s t r i c t th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f white suburbs f o r w h ite f l i g h t . This l e a v e s t h e p r i v a t e s c h o o ls as th e only v i a b l e r o u t e f o r white f a m i l i e s t o f l e e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . C l o t f e l t e r clai m s t h a t t h e r e i s no a v a i l a b l e eviden ce to s u p p o r t a c o n t e n t i o n t h a t t h e r a p i d growth in p r i v a t e s c h o o ls w ill r e v e r s e s h o r t l y a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s accomplished and be r e p l a c e d by a shar p d e c l i n e . He p o i n t s t o C h a r i ott e-M eckle nburg as an example o f a school d i s t r i c t where p r i v a t e school e n r o l l m e n t grew r a p i d l y a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n was implemented and has remained high. 59 While C l o t f e l t e r b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e r e i s a p o s i t i v e r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e l e v e l o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and p r i v a t e school e n r o l l m e n t , e s p e c i a l l y where white suburbs a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e , he was una ble t o e s t a b l i s h a precise tipping point. This i s due t o a d d i t i o n a l f a c t o r s i d e n t i f i e d by C l o t f e l t e r which impact upon a f a m i l y ' s d e c i s i o n t o move t o a p r i v a t e s c h o o l. Those f a c t o r s i n c l u d e household income, a t t i t u d e toward school d e s e g r e g a t i o n , a t t i t u d e toward p r i v a t e s c h o o l s , and t h e c o s t o f p r i v a t e s c h o o ls . C l o t f e l t e r says t h a t i f a l l white households had equal incomes and i d e n t i c a l p r e f e r e n c e s , a l e v e l o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t could be p r e d i c t e d beyond which e n r o llm e n t would t i p and a l l w h ite s would l e a v e . ^ 59I b i d . , p. 30. 6 0 I b i d . , p. 33. Due t o t h e l a c k o f u n i f o r m ity 39 among white households C l o t f e l t e r con ten ds t h a t t h e r e i s no t r u e tipping point. The r e s u l t s o f h i s study le d C l o t f e l t e r t o conclude t h a t t h e most which can be s a i d i s t h a t whit e f l i g h t t o p r i v a t e s chools i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t f o r s c h o o ls with an e n r o l l m e n t l e s s than 25 p e r c e n t non-white and s chools t h a t reach between 80 p e r c e n t t o 90 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l lm e n t w i l l be abandoned by w h i t e s . 61 Daniel U. Levine and J e a n i e Keeny Meyer s t a t e t h a t a review of l i t e r a t u r e e s t a b l i s h e d t h a t t h e r e i s general agreement t h a t wh ite f l i g h t , l i n k e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n , i s most l i k e l y t o occur in " l a r g e n o r th e r n d i s t r i c t s with a r e l a t i v e l y high p r o p o r t i o n o f m i n o r i t y s t u d e n t s surrounded by p r edo m ina ntly w h ite suburban d i s t r i c t s . " 62 They p o i n t a l s o t o a "major l e s s o n " which emerges from c u r r e n t r e s e a r c h as r e p o r t e d in th e l i t e r a t u r e . That i s t h e f a l l a c y of lumping t o g e t h e r school d i s t r i c t s w ith g r e a t l y d i f f e r i n g c h a r a c ­ t e r i s t i c s t o t r y t o de te rm ine p a t t e r n s in white f l i g h t . Levine and Meyer f e e l t h a t cas e s t u d i e s o f e n r o l lm e n t p a t t e r n s in i n d i v i d u a l d i s t r i c t s would be o f val ue in s e e i n g i f th e c o n c l u s i o n s rea ch ed by r e s e a r c h e r s a r e confirmed by th e " ev en ts a t t h e l e v e l a t which th e phenomena in q u e s t i o n a c t u a l l y o c c u r . " For t h i s reason th ey chose to study t h e Kansas C i t y , Missouri School D i s t r i c t . 63 61 I b i d . , p. 45. CO Daniel U. Levine and J e a n i e Keeny Meyer, "Level and Rate o f Desegre g a ti on and White Enrollment D ec line in a Big C ity School D i s t r i c t , " So cial Problems, V o l . 24, No. 4 (A pri l 1977): 451-462. 63Ibid., p. 454. 40 Levine and Meyer c o l l e c t e d e n r o l l m e n t d a t a on a l l 75 elemen­ t a r y s c h o o ls in Kansas C ity f o r th e p e r i o d between 1956 and 1975. All d e s e g r e g a t i o n in Kansas Ci ty d u r in g t h i s p e r i o d was n a t u r a l in t h a t t h e r e was no c o u r t o r d e r i n v olv ed. 64 The f i r s t q u e s t i o n a d d r e s s e d was th e r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e p e r c e n t a g e o f black e n r o l l m e n t and t h e i n c r e a s e in black e n r o l l m e n t . To answer t h e q u e s t i o n t h e s c h o o ls were a r r a n g e d i n t o t h r e e groups: (1) 15 t o 29 p e r c e n t b l a c k ; (2) 30 t o 45 p e r c e n t b la c k ; (3) 46 t o 60 pe rc e n t black. The change in p e r c e n t a g e o f black e n r o l lm e n t was compared over two y e a r p e r i o d s from 1956-1975. I t was found t h a t t h o s e s c h o o ls with a p e r c e n t a g e o f blac k e n r o l lm e n t between 15 - 29 "were more l i k e l y t o remain s t a b l e , a t l e a s t f o r t h e f o ll o w in g two y e a r p e r i o d , than were s c h o o ls with a h i g h e r p e r c e n ta g e o f black enrolIm ent." 65 Second, Levine and Meyer t e s t e d f o r a r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e in blac k e n r o l l m e n t and an i n c r e a s e in black e n r o l l m e n t p e r c e n t a g e s t h e f o ll o w i n g y e a r s . relationship. The r e s u l t s d i d show a Those s c h o o ls e x p e r i e n c i n g a 10 p e r c e n t o r more i n c r e a s e in a given two y e a r p e r i o d were more l i k e l y t o have a l a r g e s u b s e q u e n t i n c r e a s e in p e r c e n t a g e o f black e n r o l l m e n t than were t h o s e s c h o o ls which d e s e g r e g a t e d l e s s r a p i d l y . 6^ I b i d . , p. 455. The term " n a t u r a l " i s used by Levine and Meyer t o con note an e v e n t t h a t evolved w i t h o u t c o e r c i o n by an e x t e r n a l agency such as a c o u r t . The term " n a t u r a l l y " i s used t h ro u g h o u t t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n in t h e same way as Levine and Meyer have used i t . 65Ibid., p. 455. 41 r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e d t h a t th o s e s c h o o ls with a blac k e n r o l l m e n t p e r c e n t ­ age o f ov er 30 p e r c e n t had a much h i g h e r r a t e o f white e n r o l lm e n t d e c l i n e than s c h o o ls e n r o l l i n g l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t bl ack. Levine and Meyer concluded t h a t t h e i r r e s u l t s were c o n s i s t e n t wi th t h e c o n c lu s io n t h a t white e n r o llm e n ts d e c l i n e more r a p i d l y in sc h o o ls with high p e r c e n ta g e s o f black e n r o l l m e n t a n d / o r where t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f blac k e n r o l l m e n t i s i n c r e a s i n g r a p i d l y . They s u g g e s t t h a t t h i s shou ld a l e r t p o l i c y makers t o t a k e g r e a t c a r e in d e te r m in ­ ing t h e l e v e l and r a t e o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n t o be o b t a i n e d in d i s t r i c t s l i k e Kansas C ity i f they wish t o avoid a c c e l e r a t e d wh it e l o s s . 66 P h i l i p Cusick, David Gerbing, and E r n e s t R usse ll conducted a study o f t h e causes o f white f l i g h t from t h e P o n t i a c , Michigan School D i s t r i c t f o ll o w i n g c o u r t o r d e re d d e s e g r e g a t i o n . The P o n tia c sc h o o ls were d e s e g r e g a t e d in September 1971, amid "heavy and very h o s tile opposition." By January 1972, t h e p r o t e s t s had di m inish ed and th e s c h o o ls were o p e r a t i n g on a d e s e g r e g a t e d b a s i s . 67 The a u t h o r s surveyed a t o t a l o f 406 whit e f a m i l i e s , 193 of whom had moved o u t o f t h e Po n tia c School D i s t r i c t between 1971 and 1975 and 213 o f whom had remained in t h e school d i s t r i c t . 68 T h e ir 6 6 I b i d - , p. 461. c"7 P h i l i p A. Cus ick, David W. Gerbing, and E r n e s t L. R u s s e l l , "The E f f e c t o f School D eseg re gati on and Other F a c t o r s on t h e Decline o f th e White P o p u l a tio n in an Urban Environment," Edu cational Admin­ i s t r a t i o n Q u a r t e r l y , V o l . 15, No. 2 (Sprin g 1979): 35-49. ^ E r n e s t L. R u s s e l l , "A Study o f Change and C o n f l i c t in Court Ordered Busing as a Means o f School Desegre ga tion in an Urban C it y School D i s t r i c t , " d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i o n , Michigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y , 1978, p. 87. 42 purpose was t o det er m in e which o f s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s led t o a f a m i l y ' s d e c i s i o n to move o r remain. The v a r i a b l e s t e s t e d were: . . . t h e a t t i t u d e s o f t h e s e f a m i l i e s toward (a) busing f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n , (b) b l a c k s , ( c ) urbanism, a c a t e g o r y which encompasses l i v i n g c o n d i t i o n s and th e q u a l i t y of p u b l i c s e r v i c e s in P o n t i a c . 69 They a l s o i n c lu d e d a c a t e g o r y e n t i t l e d p e r s o n a l . The r e s u l t s o f t h e stu dy i n d i c a t e d t h a t no c o n n e c t io n could be made between t h e a t t i t u d e s o f white f a m i l i e s toward busing f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n and moving. A d i s l i k e o f busing was common t o both t h o s e who moved and t h o s e who s ta y e d . A t t i t u d e s toward th e P o n ti a c s chools showed only a moderate ca usal r e l a t i o n s h i p t o moving. Fear f o r t h e s a f e t y o f t h e i r c h i l d r e n d id n o t prove t o be a f a c t o r in t h e d e c i s i o n t o move, a lthough th o s e who d i d move eviden ce d a r e d u c ­ t i o n o f f e a r . 7(^ The u n d e r ly in g reason shown f o r white f a m i l i e s l e a v i n g P o n tia c was t h e i r d i s p l e a s u r e with urban l i v i n g . There was a l s o an i n d i r e c t r e l a t i o n s h i p between moving and a n t i - b l a c k a t t i t u d e s which c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e f a m i l y ' s unhappiness with urban l i v i n g . 7^ The a u t h o r s concluded from t h e i r s tudy t h a t "busing should not be reg ard ed as an excuse f o r white f l i g h t . " They s t a t e t h a t th e s tu d y a c t u a l l y p o i n t s t o t h e need t o c r e a t e an " a t t r a c t i v e urban environment" and a s o c i e t y f r e e from ra cism i f white f l i g h t i s to be ended. They concede t h a t t h i s i s n o t a simple goal. 69I b i d . ^ C u s i c k , e t a l . , op. c i t . , p. 47. 71 I b i d . , p. 49. 72I b id . 72 43 David J . Armor undertook a s tu d y t o a t t e m p t t o r e s o l v e some o f t h e q u e s t i o n s r a i s e d by th e d e b a te r a g i n g over t h e Coleman s t u d i e s on wh ite f l i g h t . In h i s stu d y Armor, l i k e C l o t f e l t e r , d e f i n e s m i n o r i t i e s as non-white r a t h e r th an b l a c k . Armor s t a t e s t h a t i f wh ite f l i g h t i s caused by r a c i a l p r e j u d i c e th en mandatory d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n s may be t h e b e s t s o l u t i o n . I f , however, w h ite f l i g h t i s caused not by p r e j u d i c e b u t by t h e r e a s s i g n m e n t o f c h i l d r e n away from neighborhood s c h o o l s , then v o l u n t a r y p l a n s may be more . . 73 appropriate. Armor c i t e s e x t e n s i v e l y from Coleman's s t u d i e s as well as answering t h e s t u d i e s by F a r le y and R o s s e l l . He a l s o mentions th e stud y by Green and P e t t i g r e w b u t f e e l s t h a t i t c o n t r i b u t e s l i t t l e t h a t i s new o r o f va lue. Armor d e s c r i b e s t h e Coleman and F a r le y s t u d i e s e s s e n t i a l l y as they a r e r e l a t e d e a r l i e r in t h i s p a p e r . He does f i n d some f a u l t with t h e s e s t u d i e s by c laim in g t h a t both Coleman and F a r le y con­ s i d e r only th e amount and not t h e ty pe o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Armor does n o t f e e l t h a t c o u r t o r d e re d and o t h e r ty p e s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n can be compared. He a l s o f e e l s t h a t n e i t h e r Coleman no r F a r l e y a d e q u a t e l y c o n s i d e r normal white o u t m i g r a t i o n and t h e d e c l i n e in white b i r t h rate. F i n a l l y Armor i s n o t s a t i s f i e d t h a t t h e long range e f f e c t s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n on wh ite l o s s were c o n s i d e r e d due t o t h e time f a c t o r involved in the s t u d i e s . 73 74 Armor, op. c i t . , p. 1. ^ I b i d . , pp. 3-6. 44 Looking a t t h e R osse ll s tu d y Armor i s c r i t i c a l o f t h e f a c t t h a t R o s se ll used p e r c e n t o f wh ite e n r o l l m e n t which he f e e l s f a i l s t o a d e q u a t e l y c o n s i d e r number o f w h i t e s . He p o i n t s o u t t h a t i f black e n r o l l m e n t s grow and white e n r o l l m e n t s ar e s t a b l e , th e p e r c e n t o f white d e c l i n e s . He a l s o accus es Rosse ll of d i s r e g a r d i n g o t h e r f a c t o r s such as d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s p r i o r t o c o u r t o r d e re d d e s e g r e gation. 75 In doing h i s study Armor in c l u d e d only th o s e school d i s t r i c t s implementing a c o u r t o r d e r e d d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n . He f u r t h e r l i m i t e d h is s tu d y t o d i s t r i c t s with o v e r 20,000 s t u d e n t s and g r e a t e r than 10 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t . d istricts. This y i e l d e d him a t o t a l o f 54 Armor grouped t h e 54 d i s t r i c t s he s t u d i e d in a number o f ways; n o r t h e r n d i s t r i c t s , s o u th e r n d i s t r i c t s , d i s t r i c t s with su b u rb s , d i s t r i c t s w i t h o u t s u b u rb s , and by p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t s . 76 Armor grouped t h e F l o r i d a d i s t r i c t s t o g e t h e r due t o t h e i r unique s i t u a t i o n . All F l o r i d a school d i s t r i c t s a r e county wide and t h e f a c t t h a t t h e s t a t e has o r d e r e d a l l d i s t r i c t s t o d e s e g r e g a t e means t h a t t h e r e i s no p l a c e t o go f o r white f l i g h t e x c e p t t o leave t h e s t a t e o r go t o a p r i v a t e s c h o o l. As a r e s u l t o f t h i s , ac co rding t o Armor, t h e F l o r i d a group i s t h e only one where most d i s t r i c t s c o n t i n u e t o show white e n r o l lm e n t g a m s . 75I b i d . , pp. 6-8. 76I b i d . , p. 10. 77I b i d . , p. 17. 77 45 In o r d e r t o t a k e i n t o acc ou nt demographic f a c t o r s , such as b i r t h r a t e and o u t m i g r a t i o n , Armor p r o j e c t e d th e ex p ecte d white l o s s f o r each d i s t r i c t based on p r e - d e s e g r e g a t i o n e x p e r i e n c e . His study showed t h a t a c t u a l whit e l o s s exceeded t h e e x p e c te d white l o s s f o ll o w in g t h e implem entation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n in a l l groups o u t s i d e of Florida. The f i r s t y e a r a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n showed t h e g r e a t e s t wh ite l o s s . In t h e f i r s t y e a r white l o s s e s were from two t o f o u r times g r e a t e r than ex pected in most d i s t r i c t s . As long as f o u r y e a r s a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n wh ite l o s s e s c o n tin u e d t o range from 1.5 t o 2. 5 times g r e a t e r than ex pected in d i s t r i c t s with a m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t o f more than 20 p e r c e n t and where white suburbs were available. D i s t r i c t s with a m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t o f l e s s than 20 p e r c e n t a n d / o r no wh ite suburbs had s i g n i f i c a n t lower white l o s s a f t e r t h e i n i t i a l l o s s o f t h e f i r s t y e a r f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n . There was n o t a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between n o r t h e r n and s o u th e r n school d i s t r i c t s . 78 To study wh ite f l i g h t in m e t r o p o l i t a n d i s t r i c t s which a r e d e s e g r e g a t e d o u t s i d e o f F l o r i d a , t h e L o u i s v i l l e - J e f f e r s o n County School D i s t r i c t was used by Armor. White l o s s was o ver 3 . 5 times g r e a t e r than p r o j e c t e d t h e f i r s t y e a r f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n but dropped t o 1.5 t o 2 tim es g r e a t e r t h e n e x t two y e a r s . Most o f th e wh ite l o s s could be accounted f o r by g a i n s in p r i v a t e s c h o o l s . Armor s t a t e s t h a t t h i s l o s s may be temporary as s t u d e n t s le a v e t h e p r i v a t e schools t o r e t u r n t o p u b l i c s c h o o l s . 78I b i d . , pp. 18-30. 79I b i d . , p. 39. 79 46 Armor concedes t h a t t h e r e i s a n a t u r a l d e c l i n e o f white e n r o l l m e n t in c e n t r a l c i t y d i s t r i c t s due t o d e c l i n e in w h ite b i r t h r a t e and w h it e o u t m i g r a t i o n . He i n t e r p r e t s h is study t o show, however, t h a t wh ite l o s s i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a c c e l e r a t e d by mandatory d e s e g r e g a t i o n which i n c l u d e s busing whites t o m i n o r i t y s c h o o l s , e s p e c i a l l y where th e m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t exceeds 20 p e r c e n t . In c i t i n g s t u d i e s by h i m s e l f and o t h e r s Armor p u r p o r t s t o show a r e c e p t i v i t y on th e p a r t o f most w h i te s t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n as long as i t does not r e q u i r e t h e i r c h i l d r e n t o be t r a n s p o r t e d . He s e e s r e s i s t a n c e t o mandatory busing as r e f l e c t i n g a s t r o n g white b e l i e f in neighborhood s c h o o ls . Whites a l s o b e l i e v e , he s a y s , t h a t f o r c e d d e s e g r e g a t i o n does n o t improve e d u c a t i o n a l o p p o r t u n i t y f o r w h it e s or m i n o r i t i e s and does n o t improve r a c i a l i n t e r a c t i o n . Whites a l s o f e a r t h a t f o r c e d d e s e g r e g a t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e d i s c i p l i n e problems and r a c i a l t e n s i o n s . In l i g h t o f t h i s Armor sees v o l u n t a r y p l a n s as t h e only r e a l hope f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n w i t h o u t r e s e g r e g a t i o n th ro ugh on a c c e l e r a t e d whit e f l i g h t . Several r e s e a r c h e r s and, in p a r t i c u l a r G i l e s , ^ p o i n t o u t t h a t th e re are often several stages to desegregation. There i s th e p e r i o d when i t i s rumored, when a c o u r t c as e i s in p r o g r e s s , when a c o u r t o r d e r i s pe nding, e t c . In a d d i t i o n a d i s t r i c t may d e s e g r e g a t e only a p o r t i o n o f t h e i r s c h o o ls a t one time such as only th e 8 0 I b i d . , pp. 46-47. 8 ^ G i l e s , op. c i t . , pp. 501-502. 47 e lem en tar y s c h o o ls . Armor was c r i t i c a l o f s e v e r a l s t u d i e s f o r f a i l - ing t o t a k e such f a c t o r s i n t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n . 82 The p a t t e r n o f o u t m i g r a t i o n from c e n t r a l c i t i e s t o t h e suburbs i s n o t a new phenomenon. Robert Weaver, w r i t i n g f o r t h e U.S. Com­ m is sion on C i v i l R i g h t s , claim s t h a t t h e movement o f th e more a f f l u ­ e n t from c e n t r a l c i t i e s and t h e r e s u l t a n t c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f poor has long c h a r a c t e r i z e d urban l i f e . This move t o t h e suburbs was f o r many y e a r s d i s g u i s e d by t h e f a c t t h a t c i t i e s exten ded t h e i r boundar ie s f a r o u t and t h e suburbs were b u i l t w i t h i n th e c i t y l i m i t s . 83 The move t o th e suburbs does have t h e f l a v o r o f s o c i a l c l a s s a cco r d in g t o Weaver. The s t a t u s image o f have " a r r i v e d " s o c i a l l y by moving t o th e suburbs i s held by both c i t y and suburban r e s i d e n t s . This a t t i t u d e i s e s s e n t i a l to t h e c o n t i n u e d dynamism o f th e suburban process. 84 Americans, Weaver p o i n t s o u t , have never had any g r e a t love fo r the c ity . The c i t y i s a s s o c i a t e d with v i c e w h ile home ownership and a small town c o n s t i t u t e v i r t u e . The b e s t accommodation t o t h i s c on ce pt and economic r e a l i t y i s t h e suburb. This i s e s p e c i a l l y t r u e w ith t h e improved t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s and highways a v a i l a b l e t o s i m p l i f y movement between c e n t r a l c i t i e s and s u b u r b s . 88 82I b i d . , pp. 46-47. go Robert C. Weaver, "The S u b u r b a n i z a t io n o f America," School D es eg reg a tio n : The Courts and Suburban M i g r a t i o n . A C o n s u l t a t i o n Sponsored by t h e U.S. Commission on C i v i l R i g h t s , Washington, D.C., December 8, 1975, p. 6. 84I b i d . , p. 33. 85I b i d . , pp. 26-35. 48 I n c r e a s e d economic p r o s p e r i t y has allowed many a d d i t i o n a l p ersons t o j o i n th e a f f l u e n t in th e f u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e i r d e s i r e t o move t o th e s uburb s. Weaver claims t h a t t h i s movement, because of t h e f a c t t h a t a t t h e same time t h e r e was a movement o f r e a d i l y i d e n ­ t i f i a b l e m i n o r i t y p ersons i n t o t h e c e n t r a l c i t y , was i n t e r p r e t e d as w h i te f l i g h t and was a t t r i b u t e d to r ac ism. He b e l i e v e s , however, t h a t wh ile racis m may have speeded s u b u r b a n i z a t i o n , more i m p o r t a n t l y i t has obscu red th e f a c t t h a t i t would have o c c u r re d in any e v e n t w ith t h e same zoning b a r r i e r s t o keep out low income f a m i l i e s . 86 Summary In summary, th e s t u d i e s reviwed seem t o a g r e e t h a t t h e r e i s white l o s s from c e n t r a l c i t y school d i s t r i c t s and t h a t w h ite l o s s i s g r e a t e s t in th o s e c i t i e s with a l a r g e black p o p u l a t i o n . t h e agreement ends. Beyond t h a t Coleman and Armor co nnect wh ite l o s s t o school d e s e g r e g a t i o n sa yin g t h a t th e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f l a r g e l y w h ite suburbs i s a f a c t o r in i n c r e a s i n g white l o s s from c e n t r a l c i t i e s e x p e r i e n c i n g desegregation. Coleman i n d i c a t e s t h a t white l o s s may be l a r g e l y lim ited to the year of desegregation. Armor d i s p u t e s t h i s sa yin g t h a t h i s s tudy shows a reduced but c o n t i n u i n g whit e l o s s r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n f o r a t l e a s t f o u r y e a r s f o l l o w i n g th e y e a r o f desegregation. Tip ping i s a n o t h e r co nce pt r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n by th e literature. G iles i d e n t i f i e s 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t as a t i p p i n g p o i n t beyond which white l o s s a c c e l e r a t e s r a p i d l y . 86I b i d . , p. 41. Le vin e, 49 e t a l . , a g r e e with G i le s t h a t 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t does c o n s titu te a tipping point. C l o t f e l t e r agrees t h a t a tip p in g f a c to r might well e x i s t , b u t he f e e l s t h a t too many f a c t o r s a r e involved t o a llo w t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n o f a p r e c i s e t i p p i n g p o i n t . F a r l e y , R o s s e l l , Green and P e t t i g r e w do n o t agree t h a t wh ite l o s s can be r e l a t e d t o school d e s e g r e g a t i o n . They f e e l t h a t t h e i r s t u d i e s , in f a c t , show no such r e l a t i o n s h i p . They p o i n t t o o t h e r f a c t o r s such as d e c l i n i n g w h ite b i r t h r a t e , n e g a t i v e p e r c e p t i o n s of urban l i f e , and n a t u r a l o u t m i g r a t i o n from c e n t r a l c i t i e s as th e a c t u a l cau s es o f w h it e l o s s . Green and P e t t i g r e w a l s o p o i n t t o a movement o f b la ck f a m i l i e s o u t o f c e n t r a l c i t y d i s t r i c t s claim ing t h a t i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t t h e i r movement i s d e s ig ne d t o es ca pe school desegregation.^ Gary O r f i e l d , w r i t i n g in Socia l P o l i c y , r e i n f o r c e s Green and OO P ettigrew 's fin a l point. He s t a t e s t h a t " m in o r it y groups them­ s e l v e s a r e beginning t o f l e e very r a p i d l y where th e y a r e a b le t o buy suburban h o u s in g . " He f e e l s t h a t t h i s i s n o t an e f f o r t t o f l e e c o n t a c t s w ith b la c k s b u t a r e sp o n s e t o t h e problems o f c i t y l i f e and th e a t t r a c t i o n s o f th e s uburb s. 87 Green and P e t t i g r e w , op. c i t . , p. 11. ^ G a r y O r f i e l d , (No T i t l e ) , S o c ia l P o l i c y , Vol. 6, No. 4 ( J a n . / F e b . 1976): 24-29. CHAPTER I I I METHODS AND PROCEDURES P opulati on The p o p u l a t i o n o f th e study c o n s i s t s of th e t o t a l elem entary (K-6) e n r o l l m e n t o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t from th e 1967-68 school y e a r through the 1978-79 school y e a r . Procedures The d a t a f o r t h i s study have been e n r o l lm e n t s t a t i s t i c s f o r the y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y . The Lansing School D i s t r i c t m a i n t a i n s two major e n r o l l m e n t r e c o r d s which were used as t h e so u rce o f th e e n r o l l m e n t d a t a , th e Fourth Frid ay Enrollment Report and t h e Ethn ic Count R e p o r t . The Fourth F r id ay Enrollment Report i s a s t a t e r e q u i r e d r e p o r t of t h e e n r o l l m e n t o f th e school d i s t r i c t on th e f o u r t h Frid ay f o ll o w in g Labor Day. This r e p o r t i s t h e b a s i s f o r d e te r m in i n g t h e amount o f s t a t e a i d t h a t a d i s t r i c t i s t o r e c e i v e . Because o f i t s importance th e Fourth Frid ay Enrollment Report i s a u d i t e d y e a r l y by th e S t a t e Department o f Education. The Fourth Frid ay Enrollment Report i s , t h e r e f o r e , t h e most a c c u r a t e e n r o l lm e n t r e p o r t a v a i l a b l e i n t h e school d i s t r i c t . Whenever p r a c t i c a b l e , e n r o l lm e n t s from y e a r t o y e a r a r e compared on t h e b a s i s o f t h e Fourth F r id ay Enrollment 50 51 Report. In t h i s way one i s d e a l i n g with c a r e f u l l y maximized e n r o l l ­ ment d a ta taken a t t h e same p o i n t in t h e school y e a r each y e a r . The Eth nic Count Report i s produced a minimum o f two times a y e a r , once a t Fourth F r id ay and once a t t h e beginning of th e second s e m e s t e r in J anuary . basis. I t i s a l s o produced a t o t h e r times on a needs This r e p o r t shows t h e number and p e r c e n t o f s t u d e n t s in each school in t h e d i s t r i c t by r a c e . Count Using t h e f o u r t h Fr id ay Ethnic R e p o r t , th e number o f w h ite and non- white e lem entary s t u d e n t s was determ ined f o r each y e a r o f t h e study (see Table 1). Using t h e same d a t a sourc e t h e number and p e r c e n t o f change f o r both white and non-white e n r o l l m e n t s was p l o t t e d f o r each y e a r of t h e study ( s e e Table 2). In o r d e r to examine th e e f f e c t o f c l u s t e r i n g on e n r o l l m e n t s th e s i x c l u s t e r s ^ were d i v i d e d i n t o t h r e e groups based on th e y e a r they were implemented. Group one was implemented in September 1972 and i n c l u d e s c l u s t e r s one and two; group two in September 1973 and in c l u d e s c l u s t e r t h r e e o n ly ; and group t h r e e was implemented in September 1976 and i n c l u d e s c l u s t e r s f o u r , f i v e , and s i x . A fourth group was developed which i n c l u d e d a l l o f th o s e e lem entary s c h o o ls which were never i n c l u d e d in a c l u s t e r . Two s c h o o l s , Barnes from c l u s t e r one and High from c l u s t e r t h r e e , were dropped from t h e i r c l u s t e r s in September 1976 b u t f o r purposes o f t h i s s tudy th ey were t r e a t e d as c o n t i n u i n g members o f t h e i r c l u s t e r s . One s c h o o l , Kendon, ^See Appendices A, B, and C f o r a l i s t i n g o f th e C l u s t e r s and maps showing t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e s c h o o ls in each c l u s t e r and th e n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls . 52 Table 1 . - - F o u r t h Friday Elementary Et h nic Count.* RACE Year Whi t e Non-White 1967-68 15766 2878 1968-69 15730 3213 1969-70 15538 3466 1970-71 15036 3869 1971-72 14516 4186 1972-73 13619 4456 1973-74 12743 4577 1974-75 12080 4819 1975-76 11905 4892 1976-77 11412 4923 1977-78 10620 5056 1978-79 9927 5065 * Taken from th e Fourth Frid ay E th n ic Count r e p o r t s o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , 1967-78. was added t o c l u s t e r two in September 1976 b u t f o r pu rp ose s o f t h i s s tu dy Kendon's e n r o l lm e n t was n o t i n c l u d e d in any of t h e f o u r groups. Using t h e f o u r t h Frid ay Ethnic Count Report t h e w h i te and non-white e n r o l l m e n t o f each group was c h a r t e d f o r t h e y e a r s o f t h e study (Tables 3 through 6 ) . To determ in e t h e p r e s e n c e o f a t i p p i n g f a c t o r i n t h e Lansing ele m e n ta r y s c h o o l s , t h e p e r c e n t o f no n-w hite s t u d e n t s was l i s t e d Table 2 . --Number and P e r c e n t o f White and Non-White Enrollment Change.* Percent Change Change P ercent Change 3213 +335 11.6 1.2 3466 +253 7.9 -502 3.3 3869 +403 11.6 14516 -520 3.5 4186 +317 8.2 1972-73 13619 -897 6.2 4456 +270 6.5 1973-74 12743 -876 6.4 4577 +121 2.7 1974-75 12080 -663 5.2 4819 +242 5.3 1975-76 11905 -175 1.4 4892 + 73 1.5 1976-77 11412 -493 4.1 4923 + 31 0.6 1977-78 10620 -792 6. 9 5056 +133 2.7 1978-79 9927 -693 6.5 5065 + 0.1 Year White 1967-68 15766 1968-69 15730 - 36 0 1969-70 15538 -192 1970-71 15036 1971-72 Change Non-White 2878 9 ★ Taken from th e Fourth Friday Ethnic Count r e p o r t s o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , 1967-78. 54 * Ta ble 3 . --Group 1, C l u s t e r s I and I I Implemented September 1972. RACE Year White Non-White 1967-68 2550 666 1968-69 2506 674 1969-70 2435 777 1970-71 2389 767 1971-72 2242 755 1972-73 1986 742 1973-74 1786 709 1974-75 1704 705 1975-76 1665 735 1976-77 1528 839 1977-78 1456 846 1978-79 1321 815 * L ansing Taken School from th e Fourth F rid a y D is t r i c t , 1967-78. E th nic Count r e p o r ts of the 55 T ab le 4 . — Group 2 , C lu ster III Im plem ented Septem ber 1973. RACE Year White Non-White 1967-68 1330 401 1968-69 1330 398 1969-70 1292 442 1970-71 1228 461 1971-72 1198 470 1972-73 1081 508 1973-74 1069 485 1974-75 955 505 1975-76 933 513 1976-77 875 497 1977-78 788 524 1978-79 828 512 ★ L an sin g Taken School from t h e F ou rth F rid a y D is t r ic t , 1967-78. E th nic Count r e p o r ts of the 56 T ab le 5 . — Group 3, C lu sters IV, V, and VI Im plem ented Septem ber 1976. RACE Year Non-White White 1967-68 2997 606 1968-69 2947 712 1969-70 2887 782 1970-71 2678 826 1971-72 2513 873 1972-73 2380 863 1973-74 2228 850 1974-75 2041 868 1975-76 2019 822 1976-77 1905 884 1977-78 1672 886 1978-79 1598 854 * L ansing Taken School from t h e F ourth F rid a y D i s t r i c t , 1967-78. E th nic Count reports of the 57 * T able 6 . --G roup 4, Non C l u s t e r s . RACE Year Non-White White 1967-68 8390 780 1968-69 8491 1202 1969-70 8470 1331 1970-71 8409 1775 1971-72 8260 2048 1972-73 7845 2303 1973-74 7352 2498 1974-75 7064 2700 1975-76 6985 2783 1976-77 6801 2673 1977-78 6449 2768 1978-79 5979 2855 * L an sin g Taken School from th e Fourth F r id a y D is t r ic t , 1967-78. E th nic Count reports of the 58 f o r each school as of th e f o u r t h F r id ay i n September 1976. This was t h e f i r s t f o u r t h Friday Et hnic Count Report f o l l o w i n g th e completion o f th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n program in the Lansing ele m e n ta r y schools. The p e r c e n t of non-white e n r o l l m e n t f o r each school was a l s o reco rd ed f o r Ja nuary 1979. This was t h e l a s t E th n ic Count Report completed dur in g th e p e r i o d o f th e s tu d y . A s c h o o l ' s member­ s h ip o r non-membership in a c l u s t e r was n o t c o n s id e r e d . The change i n p e r c e n t of non-white e n r o l l m e n t f o r each school was computed (Table 7). Design and Methodology o f th e Study The exper im en tal des ig n used in t h i s s tu d y was a r e g r e s s i o n 2 d i s c o n t i n u i t y a n a l y s i s as d e s c r i b e d by Campbell and S t a n l e y . The key t o t h i s design i s th e im p o s iti o n o f an e v e n t a t a s p e c i f i c p o i n t in time which i s s u s p e c te d t o produce a d i s c o n t i n u i t y i n a r e g r e s s i o n line. In t h e cas e o f t h i s stu d y t h a t e v e n t was t h e im plemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and th e e f f e c t t h a t i t had on e n r o l l m e n t change. Campbell and S ta n l e y s t a t e : Perhaps t h e most e f f i c i e n t t e s t would be a c o v a r i a n c e a n a l y s i s , in which th e a w a r d - d e c i s i o n s c o r e would be t h e c o v a r i a t e o f l a t e r ac hiev em en t, and award and no-award would be t h e t r e a t m e n t . 3 In t h i s s tudy c o v a r ia n c e a n a l y s i s was used with time th e c o v a r i a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change and d e s e g r e g a t i o n t h e t r e a t m e n t . 2 Donald T. Campbell and J u l i a n C. S t a n l e y , Experimental and Qu as i-E xp erim en tal Designs f o r Research (Chicago: Rand McNally C oll ege P u b l i s h i n g Company, 1963), p. 62. 3 1b i d . 59 Table 7 . --Change in t h e P e r c e n t o f Non-White Enrollm ent from September 1976 t o Jan ua ry 1979.* Schools Percent Non-White S ept. 1976 Percent Non-White J an. 1979 P p r rp n t r. " Chan9e D istrict 30 34 4 Allen Attwood Averill Barnes Bingham Cavanaugh Cumberland Elmhurst Everett Fair view F o r e s t View Foster Franks Genesee Gier Park Grand River Gunnisonville High Holmes Horsebrook Kendon Lewton Lyons Main Maple Grove Maple H il l Maplewood Moores Park Mount Hope North Northwestern Oak Park P l e a s a n t Grove P l e a s a n t View P o s t Oak 30 21 23 21 31 30 34 23 36 22 22 17 39 31 35 39 27 43 43 31 28 30 6 38 21 33 24 39 30 14 32 33 24 40 28 32 21 24 20 39 37 37 28 44 27 22 22 41 40 38 33 30 52 44 41 32 35 12 52 26 37 30 44 32 16 44 35 23 44 33 2 0 1 -1 8 7 3 5 8 5 0 5 2 9 3 -6 3 9 1 10 4 5 6 14 5 4 6 5 2 2 12 2 -1 4 5 60 T able 7 . --C on tin u ed . Schools Reo Riddle S her id a n Rd. Valley Farms Verlinden Wainwright Walnut Wexford Willow Woodcreek Percent Non-White Sept. 1976 Percent Non-White Jan . 1979 Percent Change 30 45 22 31 38 38 50 31 36 29 36 40 25 32 43 46 47 43 40 44 6 -5 3 1 5 8 -3 12 4 15 The study was d e s ig ne d t o answer t h r e e major q u e s t i o n s : 1. What has been th e e f f e c t o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n on ele m e n ta r y e n r o l l m e n t in th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t ? This q u e s t i o n in volv ed t h e stu d y o f t h r e e f a c t o r s : (a) was t h e r e a s i g n i f i c a n t amount o f white e n r o l l m e n t l o s s which could be attributed t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n ? ; (b) d i d t h e non-white e n r o l l m e n t f l u c t u a t e in th e same way o r in a d i f f e r e n t way as th e w h ite e n r o l l ­ ment over t h e p e r i o d o f t h e s tu d y ? ; (c ) was t h e r e a d i f f e r e n c e in e n r o l l m e n t change du r in g th e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and t h e f o ll o w i n g y e a r s f o r e i t h e r o r both w h it e and non-white e n r o l l ­ ments? The time p e r i o d o f t h e s tudy was d i v i d e d i n t o two major divisions. The f i r s t d i v i s i o n covered t h e school y e a r s from 1967-68 through 1971-72. This was th e p e r i o d p r i o r t o th e be g i n n i n g o f major d e s e g r e g a t i o n and was d e s i g n a t e d as t h e c o n t r o l p e r i o d . second d i v i s i o n covered t h e school y e a r s from 1972-73 thr ou gh The 61 1978-79 and was d e s i g n a t e d as t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n p e r i o d . The d e s e g r e g a t i o n p e r i o d was f u r t h e r d i v i d e d between th e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n and th e b al an ce o f th e p e r i o d . There has been c o n t in u e d l o s s o f s t u d e n t s from th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t due t o o u t m i g r a t i o n d u r in g the p e r i o d o f t h e stu dy. The p a t t e r n o f l o s s due t o o u t m i g r a t i o n was r e f l e c t e d d u r in g th e c o n t r o l p e r i o d , and d i f f e r e n c e s between th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change d u r i n g t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s as compared t o t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s was c o n s i d e r e d t o be due t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Enrollment d e c l i n e over t h e p e r i o d o f t h e stu d y was a l s o d i r e c t l y a f f e c t e d by th e declining b irth ra te . According t o s t a t i s t i c s compiled and p u b lis h e d by t h e Michigan Department o f P u b lic H e a l t h , t h e number o f l i v e b i r t h s p e r y e a r peaked in 1957 and have shown a d e c l i n i n g t r e n d u n t i l 1977. During t h i s p e r i o d w h ile w h ite b i r t h s have tended t o d e c l i n e , non­ white b i r t h s have tende d t o i n c r e a s e . In 1957 non-white b i r t h s made up 11.3 p e r c e n t of t h e l i v e b i r t h s i n Michigan. By 1977 th e p e r c e n t o f l i v e b i r t h s in Michigan which were non- white had r i s e n t o 17.6 p e r c e n t . Michigan Department o f P u b l i c Health s t a t i s t i c s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t o r t h e C ity of Lansing, b u t th ey a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r Ingham County beginning with t h e y e a r 1970. Inasmuch as t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t does comprise ap p r o x im a te ly o n e - h a l f of t h e school e n r o l l m e n t s o f Ingham County, t h e l i v e b i r t h d a t a f o r Ingham County b e a r more d i r e c t l y on Lansing e n r o l l m e n t s than t h e o v e r - a l l s t a t e d a t a . I t should be p o i n t e d o u t t h a t t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t does ex tend beyond Ingham County i n t o small p o r t i o n s o f Eaton and C l i n t o n C o u n t i e s , b u t n e a r l y a l l 62 o f t h e non-white s t u d e n t s o f t h e school d i s t r i c t r e s i d e i n Ingham County. As can be seen in t a b l e s 8 and 9, non-white b i r t h s in Ingham County in 1970 t o t a l e d 506, or 9.4 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l l i v e births. In 1977 non-white b i r t h s had d e c l i n e d s l i g h t e d t o 492 but r e p r e s e n t e d 11.3 p e r c e n t of t h e t o t a l l i v e b i r t h s in th e county. During t h i s same p e r i o d white b i r t h s d e c l i n e d from 4,890 or 90.6 p e r c e n t in 1970 t o 3,865 or 88.7 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l l i v e b i r t h s in Ingham County. The e f f e c t of t h i s changing b i r t h p a t t e r n was f e l t in t h e elem en tary schools by 1967, t h e beg inning o f t h e c o n t r o l period. To c o n t r o l f o r t h e s e f a c t o r s a r e g r e s s i o n - d i s c o n t i n u i t y t e c h n i q u e was used t o i d e n t i f y changes in r a t e due t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Using t h e S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r th e S o c ia l S ciences (SPSS t o o b t a i n an a n a l y s i s of c o v a r i a n c e , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e r a t e o f w h ite e n r o l lm e n t change du r in g the d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s and t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s were measured. wh ite e n r o l lm e n t D i f f e r e n c e s between t h e r a t e o f non­ change dur in g th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s and th e c o n t r o l y e a r s were measured in th e same way. S i g n i f i c a n c e was s e t a t th e .05 l e v e l . The r a t e f u r t h e r measured o f both white and non-white e n r o l l m e n t change was t o see i f t h e r a t e o f change f o r e i t h e r group v a r i e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y dur in g t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n as compared t o t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s o r th e l a t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s . S i g n i f i c a n c e was s e t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . Slorman H. Nie e t a l . , S t a t i s t i c a l Package f o r t h e Social S ci en ce s (Second E d i t i o n ; New York: McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1975), pp. 398-433. Table 8 . — Frequency o f Total Live B irth s in Ingham County by Age and E th n ic /R a cia l C h a r a c t e r is t ic s o f the Mother, 1970-1977. YEAR Age C ohorts 1970 U NW* 1971 NW U 1972 W NW 1973 W NW 1974 W NW 1975 W NW 1976 NW W 1977 W NW All Ages 4890 506 4561 507 4043 538 3748 430 3640 459 3495 456 3656 458 3865 492 Under 15 8 1 6 2 4 11 6 5 9 2 14 5 7 4 8 6 15 - 19 768 141 706 134 676 131 637 107 594 133 516 109 520 109 522 108 20 - 24 2070 193 1897 195 1549 197 1427 157 1321 138 1253 169 1306 155 1419 167 25 - 29 1395 109 1361 110 1240 117 1172 102 1237 116 1202 108 1295 127 1317 131 30 - 34 476 36 434 48 412 61 389 41 382 52 390 49 428 48 487 57 35 - 39 134 20 119 12 131 16 99 15 78 13 104 12 91 13 94 19 40 - 44 37 5 37 3 27 5 17 3 17 4 15 4 9 2 14 4 Over■ 45 1 1 1 2 4 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 3 0 Not S t a t e d 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 Michian Departm ent o f P u b lic H ea lth S t a t i s t i c s i d e n t i f y r a c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as "W h ite ," " B la c k ," "American I n d i a n , " and "All O t h e r s . " Non-White, in t h i s i n s t a n c e , r e f e r s t o a l l c a t e g o r i e s o t h e r th a n w h ite . This t a b l e i s a d a p te d from T able 26 BP, "L ive B i r t h s by County: S e l e c t e d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by Age o f Mother, Michigan R e s i d e n t s , 1970-1977." L a n s in g , M ichigan: O f f i c e o f V i ta l and H ea lth S t a t i s t i c s , Michigan Departm ent o f P u b lic H e a lth P04705-01, 1977 ( f o r t h e County o f Ingham), p. 33. Table 9. — Percentage o f Total Live B irth s in Ingham County by Age and E th n ic/R acial C h a r a c t e r is t ic s o f the Mother, 1970-1977. YEAR Age C ohorts 1971 NW W 1970 W NW* 9 .4 1972 W NW 1973 W NW 1974 NW W 1976 NW W 1975 W NW 1977 W NW 9 0 .0 1 0.0 8 8 .3 11.7 8 9 .7 1 0.3 8 8 .8 11.2 88 .5 11.5 8 8 .9 11.1 88.7 11.3 0.1 0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.4 0.1 0 .2 0.1 0 .2 0.1 2 .6 1 4 .8 2 .9 15 .2 2 .6 14.5 3 .2 13.1 2.8 12.6 2 .6 1 2 .0 2 .5 37 .4 3 .8 3 3 .8 4.3 3 4.2 3 .8 32.2 3 .4 31.7 4.3 31.7 3 .8 32.6 3 .8 2 .0 2 6 .9 2 .2 27.1 2.6 28.1 2.4 30.2 2.8 30 .4 2.7 31.5 3.1 30.2 3 .0 8.8 0 .7 8 .6 0.9 9.0 1 .3 9.3 1 .0 9.3 1 .3 9 .9 1.2 10.4 1.2 11.2 1 .3 35 - 39 2.5 0 .4 2 .3 0.2 2 .9 0 .3 2.4 0.4 1 .9 0.3 2 .6 0 .3 2 .2 0 .3 2 .2 0.4 40 - 44 0.7 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.4 0.1 0 .2 0 0 .3 0.1 Over 45 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.1 0 Not S t a t e d 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 All Ages 90.6 Under 15 0.1 15 - 19 14.2 2 .6 1 3 .9 20 - 24 3 8.4 3 .6 25 - 29 25 .9 30 - 34 0 *M ichigan D epartm ent o f P u b lic H ea lth S t a t i s t i c s i d e n t i f y r a c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s as "W h ite ," " B la c k ," "American I n d i a n , " and "All O t h e r s , " Non-White, in t h i s i n s t a n c e , r e f e r s t o a l l c a t e g o r i e s o t h e r th a n White. T his t a b l e i s a d a p te d from T ab le 26 BP, "L ive B i r t h s by County: S e l e c t e d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by Age o f Mother, Michigan R e s i d e n t s , 197 0-1977," L a n s in g , M ichigan: O f f i c e o f V i t a l and H ea lth S t a t i s t i c s , Michigan Department o f P u b lic H ea lth P0 4705-01, 1977 ( f o r t h e county o f Ingham), p. 33. 65 2- Does membership in a c l u s t e r have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on e n r o l l m e n t change in Lansing elem en tary s ch o o ls ? The Lansing e lem entary s c h o o ls were d i v id e d i n t o f o u r gr ou ps, (a ) s c h o o ls ne v e r p la c e d in a c l u s t e r s i n c e they were n a t u r a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d by t h e make up o f t h e neighborhood th ey s e r v e d , (b) s c h o o ls p l a c e d in a c l u s t e r beginning w it h th e 1972-73 school y e a r , (c ) s c h o o ls p l a c e d in a c l u s t e r beginning w ith th e 1973-74 school y e a r , and (d) s c h o o ls p la c e d i n a c l u s t e r beginning with th e 197677 school y e a r . One school was o m itted as i t was added t o an e x i s t ­ ing c l u s t e r in th e 1976-77 school y e a r . U t i l i z i n g t h e SPSS, a two by two a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e was used t o compare t h e d i f f e r e n c e in both w h ite and non-white e n r o l l ­ ment changes between t h e y e a r s p r i o r to c l u s t e r i n g and th e y e a r s a f t e r c l u s t e r i n g f o r each group o f c l u s t e r s c h o o ls . The e x p e r ie n c e o f each group o f c l u s t e r s c h o o ls was compared t o t h e n o n - c l u s t e r or c o n t r o l s c h o o ls f o r th e same time spans. In t h i s cas e two independ­ e n t v a r i a b l e s were i n v o l v e d , d e s e g r e g a t i o n and membership in a cluster. E nrollm en t change remained t h e dependent v a r i a b l e and time the c o v a ria te . The a n a l y s i s was used t o t e s t th e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e e f f e c t s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and membership in a c l u s t e r . 3. S i g n i f i c a n c e was s e t a t th e .05 l e v e l . Has t i p p i n g been a f a c t o r i n th e Lansing e lem en tar y s c h o o ls s i n c e im plemen tation o f t h e f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n p la n ? Have th o s e s c h o o ls w i th 30 p e r c e n t o r more non­ w h ite e n r o l l m e n t i n September 1976 e x p e r ie n c e d a more r a p i d i n c r e a s e in p e r c e n t o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t than th o s e s c h o o ls with 29 p e r c e n t o r l e s s non-white e n r o l l ­ ment in September 1976? 66 The Lansing e l e m e n ta r y s c h o o ls were p laced i n t o two gr oups, those with 30 p e r c e n t o r more non-white e n r o l lm e n t in September 1976, th e time o f th e implementation o f th e f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n p l a n , and tho se s c h o o ls with 29 p e r c e n t or l e s s no n-w hite e n r o l lm e n t in September 1976. The change in t h e p e r c e n t o f non- white e n r o l l m e n t between September 1976 and Jan uary 1979, t h e l a t e s t u s a b le d a ta a v a i l a b l e , was computed f o r each s ch o o l. U t i l i z i n g SPSS th e l e a s t s q u a re s a n a l y s i s was used t o com­ pute a r e g r e s s i o n l i n e showing th e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e change in e n r o l l m e n t s with i n i t i a l e n r o l lm e n t . A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e was used t o compare s c h o o ls in t h e two groups wit h p e r c e n t of m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t in 1976 th e c o v a r i a t e o f t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f change in non-white e n r o l l m e n t . The indep endent v a r i a b l e was whet her th e e n r o l l m e n t was plus or minus 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y i n 1976. S ignifi­ cance was s e t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . Hypotheses A n a ly s is o f c o v a r ia n c e w i l l be used t o t e s t t h e f o ll o w i n g hypothes es. General Hypothes is I There w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t change shown in t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l ­ ment change i n Lansing e le m e n ta r y s c h o o ls between t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s and th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s . O p e r a ti o n a l Hla: There w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a. £ . 0 5 ) between t h e r a t e o f whit e e n r o l lm e n t change dur in g t h e c o n t r o l y e a r s and d u r in g th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n years. 67 O p e r a t i o n a l HIb: There w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a £ .0 5) between t h e r a t e o f non-w hite e n r o l lm e n t change d u r in g th e c o n t r o l y e a r s and d u r in g the desegregation years. O p e r a ti o n a l HIc: There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .0 5) between th e r a t e o f w h it e e n r o l l m e n t change d u r in g th e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , th e 1972-73 school y e a r through t h e 1974-75 school y e a r , and th e f o ll o w i n g y e a r s . O p e r a tio n a l Hid: There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e ( a s .0 5) between t h e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t change d u r in g t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , t h e 1972-73 school y e a r through t h e 1974-75 school y e a r , and t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r s . Two by two a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e w i l l be used t o t e s t th e f o llo w in g h y p o t h e se s. General Hypothes is II Membership in a c l u s t e r w i l l be shown t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on e n r o l lm e n t change in Lansing e lem entary s c h o o ls . O p e r a tio n a l H I l a : There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a < .0 5) in th e r a t e o f white e n r o l l m e n t change between s c h o o l s made members o f a c l u s t e r and s c h o o ls n o t in a cluster. O p e r a ti o n a l HUb: There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e ( a '<. .0 5) i n t h e r a t e o f non- white e n r o l l m e n t change between s c h o o ls made members o f a c l u s t e r and s chools n o t in a c l u s t e r . A n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e w i l l be used t o t e s t the f o ll o w in g hypothesis. General Hy pothes is I I I T ipping w i l l be shown t o be a f a c t o r i n e n r o l lm e n t change in Lansing ele m e n ta r y s c h o o ls s i n c e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . 68 O p e r a tio n a l H I I l a : There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .05) between th e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n p e r c e n t o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t in schools with 30 p e r c e n t o r more non-white e n r o l lm e n t and s c h o o ls w ith 29 p e r c e n t o r l e s s non-white e n r o l lm e n t in September 1976 between September 1976 and January 1979. Summary Enrollment d a t a from t h e Lansing e l em en ta r y s c h o o ls was g a t h e r e d f o r th e p e r i o d beginning with th e 1967-68 school y e a r through t h e 1978-79 school y e a r . and non- white. The e n r o llm e n ts were s e p a r a t e d i n t o white The time p e r io d was s e p a r a t e d i n t o two p a r t s , p r e ­ d e s e g r e g a t i o n and p o s t - d e s e g r e g a t i o n . The e n r o l l m e n t d a t a was an alyzed to see i f t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s f o r t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t had an impact on th e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change in t h e elem entary s c h o o ls o f th e d i s t r i c t . A n a ly s is of co v a r ia n c e was used in ac co rd an ce with t h e q u a s i ex perim ental de sig n o f r e g r e s s i o n - d i s c o n t i n u i t y d e s c r i b e d by 5 Campbell and S t a n l e y . The purpose o f t h i s d es ig n was t o de ter m ine i f t h e implementation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n a t a s p e c i f i c p o i n t in time had t h e e f f e c t o f producing a d i s c o n t i n u i t y in a r e g r e s s i o n l i n e o f e n r o l l m e n t change a t t h a t p o i n t in time. 5 Campbell and S t a n l e y , l o c . c i t . CHAPTER IV FINDINGS The f i n d i n g s in t h i s c h a p t e r a r e p r e s e n t e d in keeping with th e p rocedure s o u t l i n e d in Chapter I I I . The d a t a used t o t e s t t h e hypothese s o u t l i n e d in Chapters I and I I I w i l l be p r e s e n t e d in t h i s c h a p t e r as well as o t h e r r e l a t e d f i n d i n g s . The hypothese s were s t a t e d t o f i n d o u t whether (1) d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n e f f o r t s in t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t had a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on th e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change in t h e ele m e n ta r y s c h o o l s ; (2) membership in a c l u s t e r made a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in th e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change; (3) t h e r e i s a t i p p i n g p o i n t which f u n c ­ t i o n s in t h e ele m e n ta r y s c h o o ls in t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . The hypotheses were f u r t h e r s t a t e d t o d eter m in e i f any e f f e c t s on e n r o l l ­ ment change i d e n t i f i e d were d i f f e r e n t f o r w h ite and non-white students. Hypothesis I General h y p o t h e s i s I d e a l t with e n r o l l m e n t change i n th e Lansing elem enta ry s c h o o ls as t h a t e n r o l l m e n t change r e l a t e d t o t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s o f th e d i s t r i c t . 69 70 O p e r a ti o n a l Hypothesis la In o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s i s la th e r a t e o f white e n r o l l m e n t change f o r t h e p r e - d e s e g r e g a t i o n o r c o n t r o l y e a r s was compared t o th e r a t e o f white e n r o l lm e n t change f o r th e p o s t - d e s e g r e g a t i o n years. The o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o t h e s i s s t a t e s : There w i l l be s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .05) between t h e r a t e o f white e n r o l l m e n t change dur in g th e c o n t r o l y e a r s and d u r in g t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n years. The d a t a co nfir m o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o t h e s i s la and show t h a t th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t d e c l i n e was s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n than b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . D i s c u s s i o n . - - T h e w h ite e n r o l l m e n t f o r each y e a r o f t h e s tu d y was used t o p l o t a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e f o r t h e c o n t r o l and desegregation y ears. As i l l u s t r a t e d in F ig u re 1, d i s c o n t i n u i t y in th e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e was shown a t t h e p o i n t o f t r e a t m e n t , implementa­ tio n of desegregation. A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e confirmed th e f a c t t h a t t h e i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e o f wh ite l o s s f o ll o w i n g t h e implemen­ t a t i o n o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . That i s , t h e r a t e o f wh ite l o s s a f t e r t h e implemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r th an i t had been d u r in g t h e y e a r s p r e c e d in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e r e was a r e l a t i o n s h i p between th e implemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and an i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e o f white loss. 17.000 16.000 c 15,000 I osc 14,000 c 01 5- -5(J 01 a. - 6- - 8- -9-1 0 -L 67-68 68-69 69-70 70-71 71-72 72-73 73-74 Between Years 74-75 75-76 76-77 77-78 Figure 2 . - - R a t e o f Change o f White Enrollment Between Each Year 1967-68.* * P e r c e n t change = (-.0 0 4 7 7 ) ( y e a r ) + ( - . 0 0 7 2 3 ) . etc. For valu e o f y e a r 1967=68 = 2, 1968-69 = 3, T able 11.— A n alysis Source of C ovariance T ab le Sum o f Squares for H yp oth esis df Ic. Mean Square F Sig. of F C o v ar iate: Yearl .003 1 .003 Main E f f e c t s : Three Post « Deseg. Years .001 1 .001 Error .002 8 .000 — — Total .006 10 .001 — — 10.819 a < .05 6.226 a < .05 ^Sum o f s quare s f o r y e a r were n o t a d j u s t e d f o r the main e f f e c t . ? Sum o f s qua re s f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n were a d j u s t e d f o r t h e c o v a r i a t e c o n t r i b u t i o n to t o t a l variance. 77 D i s c u s s i o n . —The non-white e n r o l lm e n t f o r each y e a r of th e study was used t o p l o t a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e f o r t h e c o n t r o l and desegregation years. D i s c o n t i n u i t y in th e r e g r e s s i o n l i n e was shown a t the p o i n t o f t r e a t m e n t , implementation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n . I t can be seen t h a t th e s lo p e o f th e l i n e i s l e s s s t e e p a f t e r t h e implemen­ t a t i o n o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t was b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n ( F ig u r e 3 ) . This i l l u s t r a t e s th e f a c t t h a t non-white e n r o l l m e n t i n c r e a s e d a t a slow er r a t e f o ll o w in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t had p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a ­ tion. A nalys is of co v a r ia n c e confirmed t h e f a c t t h a t th e d e c r e a s e in the r a t e o f non-white growth f o ll o w in g t h e im plemen tation of d e s e g r e g a t i o n was s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e .05 l e v e l . O p e r a ti o n a l Hypothesis Id O p erational h y p o t h e s i s Id looks a t t h e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t change over the p e r i o d o f t h e s tu d y as does o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s is lb . In I d , however, th e q u e s t i o n i s narrowed t o see i f t h e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t change d i f f e r s d u r in g t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n from th e c o n t r o l y e a r s and t h e t o t a l desegregation y ears. O p e r a ti o n a l h y p o th e s i s Id s t a t e s : There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .05) between th e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t change dur ing th e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n ; t h e 1972-73 school y e a r through t h e 1974-75 school y e a r , and th e f o llo w i n g y e a r s . A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e did not prove t h e h y p o t h e s i s . The o v e r a l l d a ta show t h a t th e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e in m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t s d e c l i n e d over t h e p e r i o d o f t h e s tudy and th e p e r c e n t o f e n r o l lm e n t change was s i g n i f i c a n t l y c o r r e l a t e d wit h y e a r , r = - .9 1 2 4 8 . However, 5500 5000 ■ 4500 ■ 4000 ■ 3500 3000 . 2500 2000 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 Year Figure 3 . —M u lt i p l e Regres sion Line f o r Non-White Enrollment 1967-68.* Enrollment = 327.2 ( y e a r ) + 1357.5 (Deseg) + ( -2 2 4 . 0 ) (Deseg x y e a r ) + 254.80. o f y e a r , 67 = 1, 6 8 = 2, e t c . For valu e o f des eg , pre deseg = 0, p o s t deseg = 1. For value T able 1 2 .— A n alysis of C ovarian ce T able for O perational H yp oth esis lb . df Mean Square F Sig. o f F 5,8 7 6 ,6 3 6 .3 1 5 , 8 7 6 ,6 3 6 .3 1638.92 a < .05 85,293.1 1 85,293.1 23.79 a < .05 369,794.2 1 369,794.2 103.13 a < .05 Error 2 8 ,685.4 8 3,58 5.7 — — Total 6 , 3 6 0 ,4 0 9 . 0 11 578,219.0 — — Source Sum o f Squares C o v ar iate: Yearl Main E f f e c t : 2 D esegrega tion Interaction: ~ Deseg. x y e a r ^Sum o f s qu are s f o r y e a r were not a d j u s t e d f o r t h e main e f f e c t . 2 Sum o f sq u a re s f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n were a d j u s t e d f o r the c o v a r i a t e c o n t r i b u t i o n to t o t a l variance. 3 Sum o f sq u a re s f o r th e i n t e r a c t i o n were a d j u s t e d f o r th e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of th e main e f f e c t and c o v a r i a t e . 80 t h e r e was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between the e n r o l l m e n t changes in th e t h r e e y e a r s immediately f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a t i o n and th e e n r o l l ­ ment changes d u r in g th e p r e - d e s e g r e g a t i o n ( c o n t r o l ) y e a r s and th e l a t e r years of desegregation. D i s c u s s i o n . - - I n o r d e r t o look a t r a t e of change, t h e p e r c e n t t h a t non- white e n r o l lm e n t changed between each o f t h e y e a r s in the stud y was compared. The purpose was to determine i f t h e r e was a h i g h e r r a t e o f non -w hite e n r o l lm e n t change d u r in g the t h r e e y e a r s immediately f o ll o w i n g th e implem en tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n than t h e r e was in th e y e a r s p r e c e d in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n o r in t h e o v e r a l l p e r i o d f o ll o w in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n . T h e r e f o r e , th e p e r c e n t o f non-white change f o r t h e t h r e e y e a r s a t i s s u e , from 1971-72 t o 1972-73 ( 7 1 - 7 2 ) , from 1972-73 t o 1973-74 ( 7 2 - 7 3 ) , from 1973-74 to 1974-75 ( 7 3 -7 4 ) , were compared to t h e o t h e r y e a r s o f t h e stu d y both b e f o r e and a f t e r th e im plemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n . The comparison in v o lv e d a r e g r e s ­ s i o n l i n e based on d a t a f o r a l l y e a r s o f t h e stu d y w ith a 95 p e r c e n t c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l , ( ± .0 352). Enr ollm en t change f o r a l l y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y f e l l w i t h i n th e con f id e n c e i n t e r v a l . Fig ure 4 t h a t non-white e n r o l l m e n t d e c r e a s e d . I t could ap pea r from This i s not t h e c a s e . While t h e a c t u a l number o f non- whites e n r o l l e d i n c r e a s e d , th e p e r c e n t o f change o r r a t e o f growth g e n e r a l l y d e c l i n e d . A n a l y s is o f co- v a r i a n c e f a i l e d t o prove any s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in the r a t e o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t change d u r in g t h e t h r e e y e a r s f o llo w in g d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n and t h e o t h e r y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y . Rate of Enrollment Change 12 11 Regression Line 10 .. 955» Confidence Interval 9 Percent of Change 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 67-68 68-69 69-70 73-74 74-75 70-71 71-72 72-73 Between Years 75-76 76-77 77-78 Figure 4 . —Rate o f Change o f Non-White Enrollment Between Each Year 1967-78.* P e r c e n t change = (-.0 1 1 4 5 ) ( y e a r ) + .13345. etc. For val ue o f y e a r , 1967-68 = 2, 1968-69 = 3, T ab le 1 3 .— A n alysis Source of C ovarian ce T ab le Sum o f Squares for H yp oth esis df Id. F Mean Square Sig. of F C o v ar iate: Year! .014 1 .014 41.284 a < .05 Main E f f e c t s : Three Post Deseg. Years^ .000 1 .000 .299 a > .05 Er ror .003 8 .000 — — Total .017 10 .002 — — ^Sum of sq u a re s f o r y e a r were not a d j u s t e d f o r th e main e f f e c t . 2 variance. Sum o f s quare s f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n were a d j u s t e d f o r th e c o v a r i a t e c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t o t a l 83 H yp oth esis II General h y p o th e s is I I d e a l t with th e e f f e c t t h a t being a c l u s t e r o r n o n - c l u s t e r school had on th e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change e x p e r i e n c e d as a r e s u l t of d e s e g r e g a t i o n in th e Lansing ele m e n t a r y schools. O p e r a tio n a l Hypothesis I la In o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s is I l a t h e r a t e of w h ite e n r o l lm e n t change f o r th o s e schools made members o f a c l u s t e r was measured f o r th e y e a r s p r i o r to t h e i r c l u s t e r i n g and f o r t h e y e a r s f o ll o w i n g t h e i r clustering. The r e s u l t s of th e two p e r i o d s were compared t o d e t e r ­ mine any v a r i a t i o n in th e r a t e of white e n r o llm e n t change f o r t h e p r e - c l u s t e r and p o s t - c l u s t e r y e a r s . In a l i k e manner, t h e r a t e of w h i te e n r o l l m e n t change f o r n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls , t h o s e s c h o o ls n ev er made p a r t o f a c l u s t e r , was measured f o r t h e y e a r s p r i o r t o th e implemen tation o f each c l u s t e r and f o r th e y e a r s f o ll o w i n g t h e imple­ m en t a t io n o f each c l u s t e r . This meant measuring t h e n o n - c l u s t e r sc h o o ls on t h r e e d i f f e r e n t time s c a l e s so th ey could be measured a g a i n s t each o f t h e t h r e e c l u s t e r groups. The t h r e e c l u s t e r groups a r e i d e n t i f i e d based on t h e i r y e a r o f implem entation. Group one was implemented i n 1972, group two i n 1973, and group t h r e e in 1976. Each o f th e t h r e e groups were compared t o th e c o n t r o l group s e p a r a t e l y w ith t h e break p o i n t being th e y e a r o f implementation f o r t h e c l u s t e r group being c o n s id e r e d . The o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s is s t a t e s : There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .0 5) in th e r a t e o f white e n r o l lm e n t change between s c h o o ls made members o f a c l u s t e r and s c h o o ls n o t in a c l u s t e r . 84 The d a t a d i d n o t conf irm o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o t h e s i s I l a . There was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in t h e r a t e o f w h ite e n r o l l m e n t change between n o n - c l u s t e r schools and c l u s t e r s c h o o ls when a comparison was made o f t h e i r e x p e r ie n c e b e f o r e and a f t e r t h e implemen tation of desegregation. This was t r u e o f a l l t h r e e c l u s t e r groups when com­ pared t o t h e n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls . Discussion.--F ig u re 5 i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t a l l th re e c l u s t e r groups e x p er ien ced a s te a d y d e c l i n e in t h e i r p r e c e n t o f w h ite e n r o l l ­ ment over t h e t o t a l p e r io d o f t h e s tu d y . I t can a l s o be seen t h a t th e n o n - c l u s t e r group mai ntain ed a s t e a d y p e r c e n t a g e o f white e n r o l lm e n t f o r t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y b e f o r e e x p e r i e n c i n g a s te a d y d e c l i n e in t h e i r p e r c e n t of white e n r o l l m e n t from 1970 on t o th e end of th e s tu d y . Figure 5 f u r t h e r shows t h a t t h e t h r e e c l u s t e r groups a l l had a more r a p i d d e c l i n e in t h e i r p e r c e n t of wh ite e n r o l l m e n t ov er th e p e r i o d o f th e stu d y th an d i d t h e non­ c l u s t e r group. I t must be n o t e d , however, t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e in t h e l o s s of white e n r o llm e n t ex ten ds o v e r t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d o f the s tu dy and i s n o t r e l a t e d t o t h e implem en tation o f any o f th e t h r e e c l u s t e r groups. A two by two a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e d i d n o t show the d i f f e r e n c e in d i s c o n t i n u i t y a t t h e p o i n t o f t r e a t m e n t t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t th e .05 l e v e l . I t can n o t be s a i d , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t membership in a c l u s t e r was t h e cause o f a h i g h e r r a t e o f white l o s s in t h e Lansing ele men tary s c h o o ls . 85 110% « Implemented 1972 ■A Implemented 1973 100! ■ q Implemented 1976 N o n -clu ster P o in t o f c l u s t e r i m p le m e n ta tio n Percent of 1967 E n ro llm e n t 90% 70% 60% 50% 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 Year F i g u re 5 . — Rate o f White En ro llm en t Changes, C l u s t e r vs. N o n - C l u s t e r . * ★ Taken from t h e Fourth Frid ay Et hnic Count r e p o r t s o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t 1967-78. 86 Table 1 4 . - - A n a l y s i s o f Covar iance Table f o r White Enrollment Change. 1972 C l u s t e r s vs. Non -Clusteri Source Sum o f Squares Covariate: Year2 df Mean Square F Si g. of F 4117.7 1 4117.7 729.1 a < .05 Main E f f e c t s : Cluster3 Des eg rega tio n^ 995.9 51 .3 1 995.9 51.3 176.3 9.1 a < .05 a < .05 Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year^ C l u s t e r by desegS 270.6 15.3 1 270.6 15.3 47.9 2.7 a < .05 a > .05 Error 101.7 18 5. 6 — -- Total 5552.4 23 241.4 — -- 1 1 Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute t h e a n a l y s i s : (d es eg ) + ( - 1 . 5 ) ( c l u s t e r ) + ( - 1 . 2 ) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + ( - 6 . 3 ) (deseg x c l u s t e r ) + 107.7. For val ue o f y e a r : 67= 1; 68=2; e t c . For v alu e o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n : p r e - d e s e g r e g a t i o n = 0; p o s t d e s e g r e g a t i o n = 1. For val ue o f c l u s t e r : non-cluster = 0 ; c lu ste r = 1 . 2 Sum o f s q u a r e s f o r y e a r a r e n o t a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or i n t e r a c t i o n s . 3 Sum o f s q u a re s f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r t h e e f f e c t o f th e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and th e co­ variate. 5 %o f 67 e n r o l lm e n t = - 2 . 5 ( y e a r ) + ( - 2 . 6 ) m ain C lu ster e f f e c t , and by d e s e g r e g a t i o n the co v a r ia te. ad justed for clu ster by y e a r , 87 T ab le 1 5 . — A n a l y s is o f C o v a ria n ce T ab le f o r 1973 C lu ste r s v s . N o n -C lu sterl Source Sum of Squares Covariate: Year2 W hite E n rollm ent Change. df Mean Square F 3491.3 1 3491.3 589.1 a < . 05 Main E f f e c t s : C luster^ D e s e g re g a ti o n ^ 508.8 23.5 1 1 508.8 23.5 85 .8 4.0 a < .05 a > .05 Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year 4 C l u s t e r by DesegS 129.2 4.4 1 2 1.8 1 129.2 4.4 0.7 a < .05 a > .05 Error 106.7 18 5.9 — — Total 4263.8 23 185.4 -- — Sig. of F Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute th e a n a l y s i s : ( y e a r ) + ( - 5 . 7 ) (d es eg ) + 0 . 6 ( c l u s t e r ) + ( - 1 . 8 ) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + 3 . 5 (deseg x c l u s t e r ) + 106.4. 2 Sum o f s q u a r e s f o r y e a r a r e n o t a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or interactio n s. 3 Sum o f s q u a r e s f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r the e f f e c t o f th e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and th e co­ variate. 5 %o f 67 e n r o l l m e n t = - 2 . 1 effect, C l u s t e r by d e s e g r e g a t i o n and th e c o v a r i a t e . adjusted for clu ster by y e a r , m ain 88 T able 1 6 .--A n a ly sis 1976 of C lu ster C ovarian ce vs. T ab le for W hite E n rollm ent Change. N o n -C lu sterJ Source Sum o f Squares C o v a r ia te : Year^ Si g. of F df Mean Square F 3835.1 1 3835.1 657.6 a < . 05 925.1 1 925.1 158.6 0 .8 1 0 .8 0 .0 a < .05 a > .05 Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year^ C l u s t e r by DesegS 201.9 5.7 1 201.9 5.7 34.6 1 Error 105.0 18 5.8 — — Total 5073.5 23 220.6 — — Main E f f e c t s : Cluster3 Desegregation3 1.0 a < . 05 a > . 05 Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute th e a n a l y s i s : (des eg ) + ( - 0 . 3 ) ( c l u s t e r ) + ( - 2 . 0 ) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + 3 . 4 (deseg x c l u s t e r ) + 107.4. 2 Sum o f s q u a re s f o r y e a r a r e n o t a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or in te ra c tio n s . 3 Sum o f s q u a re s f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r t h e e f f e c t o f th e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and t h e co­ variate. 5 %o f 67 e n r o l l m e n t = - 2 . 6 ( y e a r ) + ( - 2 . 4 ) effects, C lu ster and th e by d e s e g r e g a t i o n co v a ria te. adjusted for clu ster by y e a r , m ain 89 O p e r a tio n a l Hypothesis l i b O p e r a tio n a l h y p o t h e s i s l i b examined d i f f e r e n c e s in t h e r a t e o f non- white e n r o l lm e n t change between c l u s t e r and n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls in th e same way t h a t white e n r o l l m e n t change was s t u d i e d in o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s is I l a . The same groupings o f s c h o o ls were used and t h e same a n a l y s e s employed. The o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s i s states: There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .05) in th e r a t e o f non- white e n r o l l m e n t change between s c h o o ls made members o f a c l u s t e r and s chools n o t in a c l u s t e r . The d a t a d id n o t conf irm th e o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o th e s i s f o r the 1972 o r 1973 c l u s t e r s b u t did confirm t h e h y p o t h e s is f o r th e 1976 cluster. These f i n d i n g s a r e e x p l a i n e d in t h e d i s c u s s i o n below. D i s c u s s i o n . - -As can be seen from Figure 6 , a l l t h r e e o f th e c l u s t e r groups had a s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower r a t e o f i n c r e a s e f o r non­ w h it e s t u d e n t s than d id t h e n o n - c l u s t e r group. As with white e n r o l l ­ ments, t h i s d i f f e r e n c e was evidenced from 1967, s e v e r a l y e a r s b e fore t h e co ncept o f c l u s t e r i n g f o r t h e Lansing elem entary s c h o o ls was c onceived, and c o n ti n u e d through t h e 12 y e a r s of t h e s tu d y . While t h e 1972 c l u s t e r group e x p e r ie n c e d a n e g a t i v e d i s c o n t i n u i t y in th e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t g a in a t th e break p o i n t (1972), non­ white e n r o l lm e n t grew a t a slow er r a t e , and t h e c o n t r o l group had a p o s i t i v e d i s c o n t i n u i t y a t th e same p o i n t , non-white e n r o l l m e n t grew a t a f a s t e r r a t e , a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e d id n o t show t h e d i f f e r e n c e t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . The 1973 c l u s t e r group and th e c o n t r o l group both e x p e r ie n c e d a n e g a t i v e d i s c o n t i n u i t y in th e r a t e 380 360 340 Enrollment 320 . Implemented 1972 300 . 280 - Implemented 1973 1967 240 . of 200 Percent 260 . 180 . Implemented 1976 220 . Non-Cluster . Point of C luster Implementation 160 . 140 . 120 . 100 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 Year Figure 6 . - - R a t e o f Non-White Enrollment Changes C l u s t e r vs. N on-C lus te r.* Taken from th e Fourth Friday Ethnic Count r e p o r t s o f the Lansing School D i s t r i c t , 1967-1978. 91 T ab le 1 7 .--A n alysis Change. o f C o v a r ia n c e T a b le f o r N on-W hite 1972 C lu ste r v s. N on-C luster* Source Sum of Squares df C o v a r ia te : Year 3 47248.2 E n rollm ent Si g . of F Mean Square F 1 47248.2 105.6 a < .05 156978.4 490.4 1 156978.4 490. 4 350.7 1.1 a < .05 a > .05 35439.7 1661.7 1 1 35439.7 1661.7 79.2 3.7 a < .05 a > . 05 Error 8056.0 18 447.6 — Total 249874.4 23 10864.1 Main E f f e c t s : C luster3 D e s e g r e g a ti o n 3 Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year^ C l u s t e r by Deseg 3 1 __ — Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute th e a n a l y s i s : (cluster) + ( 014.3) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + ( - 6 5 . 5 ) (deseg x c l u s t e r ) + 129.6. %o f 67 e n r o l lm e n t = 17.8 ( y e a r ) + 50.5 (d es eg ) + ( - 3 0 . 9 ) 2 Sum o f s q u a r e s f o r y e a r a r e n o t a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or in te ra c tio n s . 3 Sum o f s q u a r e s f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r t h e e f f e c t o f t h e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and t h e co­ variate. 5 m ain C l u s t e r by d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f e c t s , and t h e c o v a r i a t e . adjusted for clu ster by y e a r , 92 T able 1 8 .--A n a ly sis Change. Source Covariate: Year^ o f C o v a r ia n c e T a b le f o r N on-W hite 1973 C lu ste r v s. N on-C lu sterl Sum o f Squares df Mean Square E n rollm en t Sig. of F F 50858.2 1 50858.2 92.4 a < . 05 145969.3 4.5 1 145969.3 4. 5 265.2 a < . 05 a > . 05 32438.1 76.6 1 58.9 1 32438.1 76.6 Error 9907.5 18 550.4 — Total 239254.4 23 10402.4 Main E f f e c t s : Cluster^ D es egre ga ti on^ Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year^ C l u s t e r by DesegS 1 0 .0 0.1 a < .05 a > .05 — — Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute t h e a n a l y s i s : (cluster) + ( - 1 9 . 5 ) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + ( - 1 4 . 5 ) ( c l u s t e r x dese g) + 121.7. 2 Sum o f s q u a re s f o r y e a r a r e not a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or interactions. 3 Sum o f s q u a re s f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r t h e e f f e c t o f t h e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and t h e co­ variate. 5 %o f 67 e n r o l lm e n t = 22 .8 ( y e a r ) + 9 . 0 (deseg) + ( - 2 2 . 1 ) m ain C l u s t e r by d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f e c t s , and t h e c o v a r i a t e . adjusted for clu ster by y e a r , 93 T ab le 19 .--A n a ly sis Change. o f C o v a r ia n c e T a b le f o r N on-W hite 1976 C lu s t e r v s. N o n - C lu s te r J Sum of Squares Source C o v ar iate: Year2 df Mean Square E n rollm en t S ig. of F F 51529.8 1 51529.8 287.9 a < .05 116998.9 4669.0 1 116998.9 4669.0 653.8 26.1 a < .05 a < . 05 31904.7 2769.5 1 1 31904.7 2769.5 178.3 15.5 a < .05 a < .05 Error 3221.3 18 179.0 -- — Total 211093.6 23 9178.0 — -- Main E f f e c t s : Cluster3 Desegregation^ Interactions: C l u s t e r by Year^ C l u s t e r by DesegS 1 Formula f o r r e g r e s s i o n l i n e used t o compute th e a n a l y s i s : %o f 67 e n r o l l m e n t = 32.2 ( y e a r ) + ( - 8 6 . 6 ) (de se g) + 25.1 ( c l u s t e r ) + ( -2 8 .2 3 ) ( c l u s t e r x y e a r ) + 75.3 ( c l u s t e r x des eg ) + 8 7 . 4 . 2 Sum of s q u a re s f o r y e a r a r e not a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s or in tera ctio n s. 3 Sum of s qu ar es f o r main e f f e c t s a r e a d j u s t e d f o r a l l o t h e r main e f f e c t s and f o r t h e e f f e c t o f th e c o v a r i a t e . 4 C l u s t e r by y e a r a d j u s t e d f o r main e f f e c t s and t h e co­ variate. 5 effects, C lu ster by d e s e g r e g a t i o n and co variate. the adjusted for clu ster by y e a r , m ain 94 o f non -w hite e n r o l l m e n t gain a t th e brea k p o i n t (1973). The re d u c ­ t i o n in r a t e o f ga in was g r e a t e r f o r t h e c l u s t e r group than f o r th e c o n t r o l group b u t once ag ain a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e did not show t h e d i f f e r e n c e t o be s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e .05 l e v e l . The 1976 c l u s t e r group and t h e c o n t r o l group a l s o both e x p e r i e n c e d a n e g a t i v e d i s ­ c o n t i n u i t y in t h e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l lm e n t gain a t th e break p o i n t with t h e n o n - c l u s t e r group having th e g r e a t e r r e d u c t i o n in no n-w hite e n r o l l m e n t g a in . In t h i s i n s t a n c e , a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e d i d show t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e was s i g n i f i c a n t . D es pite th e in con­ s i s t e n c y o f th e e x p e r i e n c e of t h e 1976 c l u s t e r group, t h e o v e r a l l r e s u l t s o f t h e d a t a from t e s t i n g o p e r a t i o n a l h y p o t h e s i s l i b would n o t s u p p o r t a c o n c l u s io n t h a t membership in a c l u s t e r w i l l r e s u l t i n a h i g h e r r a t e o f growth f o r non-white e n r o l lm e n t . Hypothesis I I I O p e r a t io n a l Hypothes is I l i a Operational hypothesis I l i a addresses the question of a t i p p i n g p o i n t f u n c t i o n i n g in th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . The o p e r ­ atio n a l hypothesis s ta t e s : There w i l l be a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e (a <. .05) between t h e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n p e r c e n t o f non­ w h ite e n r o l l m e n t i n s c h o o ls with 30 p e r c e n t o r more no n-w hite e n r o l l m e n t and s c h o o ls w it h 29 p e r c e n t o r l e s s non -w hite e n r o l lm e n t i n September 1976 between September 1976 and January 1979. The h y p o t h e s i s was n o t proven. An a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r ia n c e found no s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between 1976 m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t l e v e l s and t h e amount o f change in m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t s between 1976 and 1979. A t - t e s t o f s i g n i f i c a n c e a l s o f a i l e d t o prove a s i g n i f i c a n t 95 d i f f e r e n c e between th e group change s c o r e s f o r th e group which s t a r t e d with l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t and th e group which s t a r t e d with o r more than 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t . D i s c u s s i o n . - - T h e p e r c e n t o f m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t f o r each school in September 1976 was compared t o t h a t s c h o o l ' s change s c o re o f p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t from September 1976 t o Jan ua ry 1979. No s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n was found between 1976 m i n o r i t y e n r o l l ­ ment l e v e l s and th e amount of change in m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t s between September 1976 and January 1979, r = - .0 5 4 7 . While the absence o f s i g n i f i c a n t c o r r e l a t i o n between th e l e v e l o f m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t in i n d i v i d u a l s c h o o ls in 1976 and th e amount of change th ey e x p e r i e n c e in m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t by 1979 i n d i c a t e d th e l ack o f a t i p p i n g p o i n t in Lansing t h e r e was a concern t h a t t h e a c t u a l f a c t o r o f t i p p i n g had n o t been d i r e c t l y a d d r e ss e d . I t was f e l t t h a t per haps a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e could be shown between th o s e s c h o o ls with l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t and th o s e s c h o o ls with 30 p e r c e n t or more m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t in 1976 i f th ey were viewed as two groups r a t h e r th an i n d i v i d u a l l y . Conseq uen tly, t h e amount o f change in m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t f o r th e two groups between 1976 and 1979 was compared using a t - t e s t f o r s i g n i f i c a n c e with (a < .05) s e t as t h e l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e . approach a l s o f a i l e d t o prove t h e h y p o t h e s i s as no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e was shown between t h e gr ou ps. ^ ( 4 3 ) = 0-734. This Table 2 0 . - - T i p p in g E f f e c t . No. of Schools 1976 Enrollments 1976 Enrollments Pe r c e n t Minority 1979 Enrollments P ercent Mi nori t y Change in P e r c e n t Minority x SD x SD X SD 30% o r more 28 35.57 5.34 40.29 5.48 4.71 4.82 Less than 30% 17 21.88 5.61 25.59 7.27 3.71 3.77 Total Group 45 30.40 8.6 0 34.73 9.46 4. 33 4.55 97 Summary General h y p o t h e s i s I d e a l t w ith e n r o l l m e n t change in th e Lansing elem en tary s c h o o ls as t h a t e n r o l l m e n t change r e l a t e d t o the desegregation e f f o r t s of the d i s t r i c t . The g e n e r a l h y p o t h e s i s was d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r o p e r a t i o n a l hypothes es f o r t e s t i n g . A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e was used t o t e s t each o f t h e o p e r a t i o n a l hy p o th ese s. O p e r a tio n a l h y p o t h e s i s l a was confirmed. The d a t a show t h a t t h e r a t e o f wh ite e n r o l lm e n t change was s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t was b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n in th e Lansing e le m e n ta r y s c h o o l s . White e n r o l l m e n t d e c l i n e d over t h e e n t i r e p e r i o d of t h e study b u t d e c l i n e d a t a more r a p i d r a t e a f t e r d e s e g r e ­ g a t i o n than b e f o re d e s e g r e g a t i o n . O p e r a ti o n a l h y p o t h e s i s lb was confirmed. The d a t a show t h a t th e r a t e o f non-white e n r o l l m e n t change was s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t was b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Non-white e n r o l l m e n t grew over t h e t o t a l p e r i o d of t h e s tu d y b u t grew a t a s lo w er r a t e a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n than b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n . O p e r a t io n a l h y p o t h e s i s Ic was conf irmed. The d a t a show t h a t t h e r a t e o f change in w h ite e n r o l l m e n t was s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r durin g t h e t h r e e y e a r s immediately f o ll o w i n g t h e im plemen tation of d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t was f o r o t h e r p e r i o d s o f t h e s tu d y . White e n r o l lm e n t d e c l i n e d more r a p i d l y d u r in g t h o s e t h r e e y e a r s than i t d i d b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n o r in t h e l a t e r y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n . O p e r a tio n a l h y p o t h e s i s Id was n o t co nfirm ed . The d a t a do n o t show t h a t th e r a t e o f change in no n- w hite e n r o l l m e n t was 98 s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t in t h e t h r e e y e a r s f o ll o w in g t h e implementa­ t i o n o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n than f o r o t h e r p e r i o d s o f t h e s tu dy. General h y p o th e s i s II d e a l t with th e e f f e c t t h a t being a c l u s t e r o r n o n - c l u s t e r school had on t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change e x p e r ie n c e d as a r e s u l t o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n in t h e Lansing elem en ta ry schools. The gen er al h y p o t h e s i s was d i v i d e d i n t o two o p e r a t i o n a l hypothese s f o r t e s t i n g . A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e was used t o t e s t each of t h e o p e r a t i o n a l hy po th es es. O p e r a tio n a l h y p o t h e s i s I l a was n o t confirmed. There was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e shown between t h e r a t e o f white e n r o l l m e n t change b e f o r e and a f t e r t h e implementation o f a c l u s t e r f o r s c h o o ls in th e c l u s t e r and f o r s chools n o t becoming members o f a c l u s t e r . O p erati onal h y p o t h e s i s l i b was n o t confirmed. There was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e shown between t h e r a t e o f non- white e n r o l l m e n t change b e f o r e and a f t e r t h e implementation o f a c l u s t e r f o r s c h o o ls in the c l u s t e r and f o r s c h o o ls n o t becoming members o f a c l u s t e r . Hypothesis I I I a d d r e s s e d th e q u e s t i o n o f a t i p p i n g p o i n t f u n c t i o n i n g i n t h e Lansing e lem entary s c h o o ls . A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i ­ ance and a t - t e s t o f s i g n i f i c a n c e were used t o t e s t th e h y p o t h e s i s . Hypothesis I I I was n o t confirmed. Schools with 30 p e r c e n t o r more m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t in 1976, th e f i n a l im plem en tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , had n o t ga ined m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r r a t e by t h e end o f t h e study (1979) tha n t h o s e s c h o o ls with 29 p e r c e n t o r l e s s m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t in 1976. CHAPTER V SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS This stu d y was d e s ig n e d t o determ in e what e f f e c t d e s e g r e g a ­ t i o n e f f o r t s had on t h e e lem en tar y e n r o l lm e n t o f one medium s i z e d school d i s t r i c t , t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t , Lansing, Michigan. The s tu d y s o u g h t to answer t h r e e s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s . (1) Did d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s i n t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t have a s i g n i f i ­ c a n t e f f e c t on th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change in th e elem entary s c h o o ls f o r e i t h e r wh ite o r no n-w hite s t u d e n t s ? (2) Did membership in a c l u s t e r make a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change f o r e i t h e r whit e o r non-white s t u d e n t s ? (3) Is t h e r e a t i p p i n g p o i n t which f u n c t i o n s in th e e l em en ta r y s c h o o ls in th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t ? A n a ly s is o f c o v a r i a n c e did conf irm a s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change r e l a t e d t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n . This was t r u e f o r both w h ite and no n- white e n r o l l m e n t w it h t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n change f o r both groups being in th e same d i r e c t i o n . The r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change f o r w h ite s t u d e n t s , which was d e c l i n i n g b e f o r e d e s e g r e g a t i o n , ev iden ce d an i n c r e a s e in t h e r a t e o f d e c l i n e with th e implem en tat ion o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n . Non-white e n r o l l m e n t s which had 99 100 been growing p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n c o n tin u e d t o grow a f t e r th e im pl em en ta ti on o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , but a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower r a t e . In a look a t e n r o l l m e n t change dur in g t h e f i r s t t h r e e y e a r s f o ll o w i n g t h e implemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n , i t was shown t h a t th e r a t e o f d e c l i n e i n w h ite e n r o l l m e n t was s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r d u r in g t h o s e y e a r s th an f o r t h e o t h e r y e a r s o f th e s tu d y . t r u e f o r non-white e n r o l lm e n t change, however. The same was not While non-white e n r o l l m e n t s did e x p e r i e n c e a lower r a t e o f i n c r e a s e in t h e s e t h r e e y e a r s , t h e r a t e o f change was not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from t h e o t h e r y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y . Membership i n a c l u s t e r was n o t shown t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on e n r o l l m e n t change i n L a n s i n g 's e l em entary s c h o o ls f o r e i t h e r w h ite or non-w hite s t u d e n t s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , s c h o o ls which were n a t u r a l l y i n t e g r a t e d p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n and, t h e r e f o r e , ne ve r became members o f a c l u s t e r m a in ta in e d e n r o l l m e n t b e t t e r than th o s e s c h o o ls which were n o t i n t e g r a t e d p r i o r t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n and thus were made members o f a c l u s t e r . The n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls l o s t w hite s t u d e n t s a t a lower r a t e and ga in ed non-w hite s t u d e n t s a t a h i g h e r r a t e than d id c l u s t e r s c h o o ls . This t r e n d s t a r t e d well b e f o r e t h e im plementation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n and th e f o rm a tio n of c l u s t e r s , however, and a n a l y s i s o f c o v a r i a n c e did not show any s i g n i f i c a n t a l t e r a t i o n of t h e t r e n d when c l u s t e r s were formed. These r e s u l t s le d t o t h e c o n c l u s io n t h a t some f a c t o r o r f a c t o r s o t h e r than c l u s t e r i n g were t h e cause o f t h e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e r a t e o f e n r o l l m e n t change between c l u s t e r and n o n - c l u s t e r schools. 101 The p r e s e n c e o f a t i p p i n g f a c t o r in th e Lansing School Dis­ t r i c t ' s e l em entary s c h o o ls was n o t confirmed by t h i s s tu d y . Individ­ ual s c h o o ls with more th an 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o llm e n t s p r i o r t o f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n (September 1976) were not shown t o be more l i k e l y to have s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n c r e a s e d in p e r c e n t o f m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t by th e end o f th e s tu d y than were s c h o o ls with 29 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y enrollment or le s s p r io r to f in a l desegregation. Even when viewed as a group, s c h o o ls with more than 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t p r i o r to f i n a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n showed no s i g n i f i c a n t l y g r e a t e r gai n in m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t by t h e end o f t h e s tudy than th e group o f s c h o o ls with l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t m i n o r i t y e n r o l lm e n t p r i o r t o f i n a l desegregation. Di s cuss io n James Coleman has claimed t h a t th e a c t o f d e s e g r e g a t i n g s c h o o ls w i l l r e s u l t in th e l o s s o f wh ite s t u d e n t s . ^ This would be e s p e c i a l l y t r u e , a c cordin g t o Coleman, in d i s t r i c t s l i k e Lansing where l a r g e l y w h ite suburbs a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r white f l i g h t . Rosse ll d i s a g r e e d with Coleman. Christine She claimed t h a t while t h e r e may be a s i g n i f i c a n t l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s f o r t h e f i r s t two y e a r s a f t e r d e s e g r e g a t i o n t h a t t h i s p a t t e r n w i l l then end and may even r e v e r s e 2 i t s e l f wit h white s t u d e n t s r e t u r n i n g . I t was R o s s e l l ' s f e e l i n g , based on e x p e r i e n c e in t h e Boston d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s , t h a t wh ite s t u d e n t s who had f l e d t o p a r o c h i a l s c h o o ls would r e t u r n t o th e p u b l i c ^Coleman, op. c i t . , p. 12. 2 R o s s e l l , op. c i t . , pp. 36-39. 102 s c h o o ls due t o th e burden o f p a r o c h i a l t u i t i o n c o s t s . Green and P e t t i g r e w a l s o d i s a g r e e d with Coleman and p o i n te d o u t t h a t t h e i r s t u d i e s i n d i c a t e d t h a t whit e and non- white e n r o l lm e n t s tend t o r i s e or f a l l together. 3 They i n t e r p r e t e d t h i s phenomenon t o i n d i c a t e e n r o l lm e n t change r e s u l t s from o t h e r th an d e s e g r e g a t i o n . I t was t h e i r c o n t e n t i o n t h a t non-w hite s would be u n l i k e l y t o le a v e a school d i s t r i c t t o avoid d e s e g r e g a t i o n . The r e s u l t s of t h i s study would seem t o s u p p o r t , t o a t l e a s t some e x t e n t , each o f t h e s e p o s i t i o n s . As p r e d i c t e d by Coleman, t h e r a t e o f t h e d e c l i n e in white e n r o l lm e n t did a c c e l e r a t e with th e im plem en tation o f th e d e s e g re g a ­ t i o n o f L a n s i n g 's ele m e n ta r y s c h o o l s . While t h i s can l ead t o the co n c lu s io n t h a t d e s e g r e g a t i o n was th e cause o f th e a c c e l e r a t e d l o s s o f whit e s t u d e n t s t h e r e were o t h e r f a c t o r s which may have c o n t r i b u t e d to the lo ss . The implemen tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n came a t th e same time as th e o n s e t o f a d e c l i n e in o v e r a l l e n r o l lm e n t s in th e Lansing schools. The K-12 e n r o l l m e n t o f t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t reached a peak of 34,000 s t u d e n t s in 1971. That e n r o l l m e n t d e c l i n e d s t e a d i l y from 1971 t o th e end o f t h e s tu d y when t h e K-12 e n r o l lm e n t was l e s s than 27,000. This d e c l i n e in e n r o l l m e n t was n o t unique to L ansing , but was p a r t of a n a t i o n - w i d e t r e n d r e f l e c t i n g t h e d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e o f th e 1960s and 1970s. I t i s d i f f i c u l t t o e s t i m a t e th e s p e c i f i c impact t h a t th e d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e had on t h e d a t a d e r i v e d from t h i s s tu d y . 3 An a t t e m p t was made t o c o n t r o l t h e v a r i a b l e , Green and P e t t i g r e w , op. c i t . , p. 30. 103 b i r t h r a t e , by comparing t h e d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s t o th e p r e ­ d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s b u t t h e e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f t h a t c o n t r o l could be questioned. Another f a c t o r t o be c o n s id e r e d i s dise nc hantm e nt w ith urban living. The l i t e r a t u r e i s r e p l e t e with s t u d i e s claim ing t h a t f a m i l i e s with th e means t o do so a r e l e a v i n g urban c i t i e s t o escape such urban problems as t h e growing crime r a t e , p o l l u t i o n and h i g h e r taxes. There i s no rea so n t o b e l i e v e t h a t Lansing i s immune t o t h i s phenomenon. In de ed , t h e growth of t h e suburbs surr o u n d in g Lansing would i n d i c a t e t h e o p p o s i t e . This s tu d y atte m p te d t o c o n t r o l f o r t h i s f a c t o r by comparing t h e p o s t - d e s e g r e g a t i o n y e a r s t o t h e p r e ­ desegregation y ears. In t h i s cas e t h e r e i s more reas on t o b e l i e v e t h a t t h e c o n t r o l was e f f e c t i v e as t h e r e was no major e v e n t which o c c u r re d a t t h e time o f th e implem en tation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n t o a f f e c t th i s trend. In a d d i t i o n to t h e two s p e c i f i c f a c t o r s d i s c u s s e d above, one co uld s p e c u l a t e on th e e f f e c t o f changing housing p a t t e r n s in Lansing. P r i o r t o 1970 most f a m i l i e s in Lansing l i v e d in s i n g l e - f a m i l y dwellings. Since t h a t time t h e r e has been a phenomenal growth o f apa r t m e n t u n i t s in Lansing. Many o f t h e s e u n i t s a r e o f t h e one and two-bedroom v a r i e t y which do n o t len d themse lves t o occupancy by f a m i l i e s w ith s c h o o l - a g e c h i l d r e n . Coupled with t h i s has been an unprecedented expa nsion o f t h e Oldsmobile m a n ufacturi ng f a c i l i t i e s and t h e development o f two major roadways which have removed a l a r g e number o f s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e ll in g u n i t s from t h e c i t y . 104 There I s a l s o the economic c l i m a t e o f Lansing t o be con­ sidered. While Oldsmobile, one o f the a r e a ' s major em ploye rs, expanded th ro u g h o u t th e p e r i o d o f t h e s t u d y , Diamond Reo went o u t of b u s i n e s s , Motor Wheel was c u t t i n g back on employment, and t h e s t a t e was b u i l d i n g a major complex o f o f f i c e s o u t s i d e o f t h e c i t y and r e l o c a t i n g t h e work s t a t i o n s o f many o f i t s employees. In a d d i t i o n much o f O ld s m o b il e 's expansion took p l a c e o u t s i d e o f th e c i t y , in th e su bu rbs. How much t h e s e economic f a c t o r s had t o do with th e e n r o l l m e n t t r e n d s o f th e Lansing s c h o o ls i s an unanswered q u e s t i o n . While th e a c c e l e r a t e d l o s s o f w h it e s t u d e n t s exten ded from th e im plementation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n t o t h e end of t h e s t u d y , i t was s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r d u r in g t h e t h r e e y e a r s immediately f o llo w in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n than i t was du r in g o t h e r p e r i o d s o f th e s tu d y . conformed with t h e f i n d i n g s o f R o s s e l l . This There was no r e a l evidence from t h i s s t u d y , however, t o i n d i c a t e t h a t t h e r e d u c t i o n in th e r a t e o f wh ite e n r o l l m e n t l o s s from Lansing a f t e r t h r e e y e a r s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n was accompanied by th e r e t u r n of wh ite s t u d e n t s who « had l e f t e a r l i e r e i t h e r t o p a r o c h i a l s c h o o ls o r t o t h e s ub urb s. Indeed t h e r e i s a q u e s t i o n as t o how many Lansing f a m i l i e s d i d move t o suburban o r p a r o c h i a l s c h o o ls and why th o s e who d id chose t o do so. The suburban s c h o o ls around Lansing e x p e r ie n c e d s u b s t a n t i a l growth d u r in g t h e e a r l y y e a r s o f t h e s tu d y b u t in more r e c e n t y e a r s have j o i n e d Lansing in t h e t r e n d o f e n r o l l m e n t d e c l i n e ; a d e c l i n e which i s mainly a t t r i b u t a b l e t o th e d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e . Four of th e major suburban school d i s t r i c t s , DeWitt, Grand Ledge, H o l t, and 105 Waverly, may well r e f l e c t t h e movement o f Lansing f a m i l i e s away from th e urban a r e a . Two o t h e r major d i s t r i c t s , East Lansing and Okemos, more l i k e l y r e f l e c t th e growth of Michigan S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y . These d i s t r i c t s do r e p r e s e n t an avenue o f es cape from th e d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f Lansing s c h o o ls t o l a r g e l y white suburban s c h o o l s , b u t i t i s d i f f i ­ c u l t t o say what e f f e c t t h e i r pr ese nce had on th e d a t a produced by t h i s s tu d y . The p a r o c h i a l schools w i t h i n t h e Lansing School D i s t r i c t a l s o p r o v id e a l a r g e l y white r e fu g e f o r f a m i l i e s f l e e i n g d e s e g r e g a ­ tion. The p a r o c h i a l school e n r o l l m e n t , however, e x p e r i e n c e d a d e c l i n e even more dr a m a t ic than th e p u b l i c s c h o o ls t h r o u g h o u t th e p e r i o d of th e s tu d y . P a r o c h i a l e n r o l lm e n t sto o d a t 4015 in 1967 bu t had dropped t o 2352 by 1979. Much o f t h i s d e c l i n e was a t t r i b u t e d t o a sh arp i n c r e a s e in the t u i t i o n f o r t h e C a t h o l i c s c h o o l s . In 1967 C a t h o l i c schools e n r o l l e d 3629 o f th e 4015 p a r o c h i a l s t u d e n t s wi th only 386 s t u d e n t s e n r o l l e d in th e n o n - C a th o l ic p a r o c h i a l s c h o o ls . By 1979 e n r o l l m e n t i n t h e C a t h o l i c s c h o o ls had d e c l i n e d t o 4 1513 wh ile n o n - C a t h o l i c p a r o c h i a l e n r o l lm e n t s had r i s e n t o 839. This n o n - C a th o lic p a r o c h i a l school growth was p r i m a r i l y due t o a growth in t h e f u n d a m e n t a l i s t C h r i s t i a n s c h o o ls . While t h e growth in C h r i s t i a n s c h o o ls came a t t h e time o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f t h e Lansing e lem en tar y s c h o o l s , i t i s n o t p o s s i b l e t o say t h a t t h e r e was any c o n n e c t io n between t h e two e v e n t s . C e r t a i n l y t h e s e s c h o o ls p r o v id e ^These d a t a tak en from th e Fourth F r id a y Enrollm ent Reports o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . 106 a l a r g e l y white r o u t e of e s cap e b u t t h e C h r i s t i a n s c h o o ls dp r e q u i r e a d o c t r i n a l commitment f o r e n r o l l m e n t which may speak more to a d e s i r e f o r C h r i s t i a n e d u c a t i o n than to a d e s i r e t o f l e e t h e p u b l i c schools. All o f t h e p a r o c h i a l s c h o o l s , both C a t h o l i c and non- C a t h o l i c , committed them se lves t o a v o i d , t o t h e b e s t o f t h e i r a b i l i t y , e n r o l l i n g any s t u d e n t s who were s eeking only t o es ca pe th e desegregation of the public schools. In perhaps one o f t h e more i n t e r e s t i n g r e s u l t s o f t h e study i t was shown t h a t no n-w hite e n r o l l m e n t s , w h ile c o n t i n u i n g t o grow t h ro u g h o u t the s tudy grew a t a s i g n i f i c a n t l y slo w er r a t e f o llo w in g t h e implem entation o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n in Lansing. This f i n d i n g i s in conform ity with t h e p o s i t i o n o f Green and P e t t i g r e w t h a t white and non-white e n r o l lm e n t s tend t o f o llo w t h e same p a t t e r n . If their c o n t e n t i o n t h a t a slowing in t h e r a t e o f non-w hite growth f o ll o w in g d e s e g r e g a t i o n i s n o t an i n d i c a t i o n o f any d e s i r e on t h e p a r t o f non­ w h i te s to escape d e s e g r e g a t i o n , t h e n i t co uld p o s s i b l y i n d i c a t e o t h e r f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g both w h ite and no n-w hite e n r o l l m e n t t r e n d s . Many o f t h e same f a c t o r s d i s c u s s e d e a r l i e r i n r e l a t i o n to white e n r o l l m e n t change may have impacted no n-w hite e n r o l l m e n t s as well. While th e b i r t h r a t e s f o r n on-w hite f a m i l i e s has remained h i g h e r than th e w h it e b i r t h r a t e , i t has e x p e r i e n c e d a d e c l i n e s i m i l a r t o th e white b i r t h r a t e . b lac k f a m i l i e s . This has been e s p e c i a l l y t r u e f o r The f a c t o f a d e c l i n i n g b i r t h r a t e may be a major f a c t o r in th e slow ing r a t e o f non -w hite growth f o ll o w i n g d e s e g r e g a ­ t i o n i n th e Lansing e l e m e n ta r y s c h o o l s . 107 Non-white e n r o llm e n ts have c o n ti n u e d t o grow, however, in th e Lansing e l em enta ry s chools even i f a t a reduced r a t e . I f non­ wh ite b i r t h r a t e has d e c l i n e d then th e growth in no n-w hite e n r o l lm e n t must mean more non- white f a m i l i e s a r e moving i n t o Lansing. The movement o f w h ite f a m i l i e s t o t h e suburbs may have c r e a t e d a market of a f f o r d a b l e housing f o r non- white f a m i l i e s in Lansing. The growth o f a p artm ent u n i t s in Lansing has in c l u d e d s e v e r a l hundred f e d e r a l l y s u b s i d i z e d lo w - c o s t u n i t s . This has pr ovid e d an o p p o r t u n i t y f o r many low-income f a m i l i e s both w h it e and non-white t o f i n d housing in Lansing. At th e same time many fo rm e r ly a l l - w h i t e neighborhoods in Lansing have been opened t o non-white f a m i l i e s , f u r t h e r expanding th e amount o f housing a v a i l a b l e t o non-w hite s. David Armor claimed h i s s t u d i e s dem onstrated t h a t wh ite p a r e n t s a r e n o t opposed t o th e co ncept o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n as such as long as i t does n o t r e s u l t in t h e i r c h i l d r e n being r e a s s i g n e d away from neighborhood s c h o o ls . s u p p o r t Armor's claim . 5 The r e s u l t s o f t h i s study do l i t t l e t o The implemen tation o f c l u s t e r s in t h e Lansing elem en ta ry s c h o o ls d id r e s u l t in th e re a ss ig n m e n t of w h it e s t u d e n t s as well as non-white s t u d e n t s o u t o f t h e i r neighborhood s c h o o ls and r e q u i r e d them t o be t r a n s p o r t e d . There was no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r ­ ence , however, i n th e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change f o r e i t h e r white or non- white s t u d e n t s f o r c l u s t e r o r n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls which could be a t t r i b u t e d t o c l u s t e r i n g and i t s accompanying b u s in g . The f a c t t h a t s t u d e n t s in c l u s t e r s c h o o ls were r e a s s i g n e d and bused t o s c h o o ls 5 Armor, op. c i t . , p. 1. 108 o u t o f t h e i r neighborhood while s t u d e n t s in n o n - c l u s t e r s chools were n o t , did n o t seem t o be a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r a f f e c t i n g the r a t e of e n r o l l m e n t change. The s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e in th e r a t e of e n r o l l m e n t change f o r c l u s t e r and n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls over th e t o t a l p e r io d o f th e s tu d y r a i s e s th e q u e s t i o n o f c a u s e . I t might imply t h a t n a t u r a l l y i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls have a g r e a t e r hold ing power f o r both wh ite and non-white s t u d e n t s than do s c h o o ls which a r e s e g r e g a t e d e i t h e r wh ite o r non -w hite . On t h e o t h e r hand i t might imply t h a t c e r t a i n ty pe s of neighborhoods based on a g e , typ e of hou sin g, e t c . , have more s t a b i l i t y and a r e more l i k e l y to i n t e g r a t e than o t h e r ty pes of neighborhoods. Those e lem entary s c h o o ls which were not c l u s t e r e d remained untouched by t h e c o u r t o r d e r because the y a l r e a d y r e f l e c t e d an a p p r o p r i a t e r a c i a l b a la n c e . The problem which L a n s i n g 's d e s e g r e g a ­ t i o n p la n had been des ig n e d t o combat d i d not e x i s t in t h e s e s c h o o ls . They were n a t u r a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d as a r e s u l t o f t h e r a c i a l make-up of t h e neighborhoods which th ey s e rv e . I t does seem s i g n i f i c a n t t h a t e n r o l lm e n t in t h e s e s c h o o ls c o n t i n u e d i n a p o s i t i v e d i r e c t i o n d i s t i n c t l y d i f f e r e n t from th e p a t t e r n obse rved in c l u s t e r s c h o o ls . They did not l o s e wh ite s t u d e n t s so r a p i d l y , nor d id r a t e of non-white e n r o l lm e n t slow down. This would s u g g e s t f o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n t h e p o s s i b i l i t y t h a t n e i t h e r p e r c e n t a g e of m i n o r i t y e n r o l l m e n t , nor t r a n s p o r t a t i o n of s t u d e n t s i s as c r i t i c a l a v a r i a b l e in s t a b l e e n r o llm e n t as th e i n t e g r a t i o n i n neighborhood l i v i n g p a t t e r n s . 109 Michael G i l e s , e t a l . , in a study o f t h e impact o f p r i v a t e s c h o o ls on white l o s s in d es e g re g a te d school d i s t r i c t s found t h a t a t i p p i n g f a c t o r was an i m p o rta n t i n g r e d i e n t r e l a t i n g t o w h ite Toss. They deter m ine d t h a t when a school passed 30 p e r c e n t non-w hite e n r o l l m e n t th e r a t e o f white l o s s a c c e l e r a t e d . 6 In a stu d y of d e s e g r e g a t i o n in t h e Kansas Ci ty Schools, Levine and Meyer a l s o found t h a t t h o s e s c h o o ls with a non-white e n r o l l m e n t o f over 30 p e r c e n t had a much h i g h e r r a t e o f white e n r o l l m e n t d e c l i n e than s c h o o ls e n r o l l i n g l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t n o n - w h i te .^ T h i r t y p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l lm e n t was n o t shown t o f u n c ­ t i o n as a t i p p i n g p o i n t in t h e elementary s c h o o ls o f Lansing. There was no s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p shown between a school having more o r l e s s than 30 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l lm e n t in 1976, t h e y e a r o f f i n a l implem en tation of d e s e g r e g a t i o n , and t h e amount o f gain in non-w hite e n r o l lm e n t i t had by th e end o f th e s tu d y in 1979. This r e s u l t would seem t o conform more t o th e s t u d i e s o f Char les C l o t f e l t e r which l e d him t o conclude t h a t th e most t h a t can be s a i d i s t h a t whit e f l i g h t i s i n s i g n i f i c a n t f o r s c h o o ls with an e n r o l l m e n t o f l e s s th an 25 p e r c e n t non-white and t h a t when s c h o o ls reach a l e v e l between 80 p e r c e n t t o 90 p e r c e n t non-white e n r o l l m e n t th ey w i l l be abandoned by w h i t e s . 8 g G i l e s , e t a l . , op. c i t . , pp. 21-31. ^Levine and Meyer, op. c i t . , pp. 451-462. ^ C l o t f e l t e r , op. c i t . , pp. 28-49. 110 The d e s e g r e g a t i o n o f th e Lansing elem entary s c h o o ls was accomplished with l i t t l e o v e r t o p p o s i t i o n and no v io l e n c e . Court o r d e re d d e s e g r e g a t i o n i n volved about h a l f o f th e d i s t r i c t ' s elemen tary s c h o o ls while t h e o t h e r h a l f were n a t u r a l l y d e s e g r e g a t e d . Re gardless o f th e source o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n t h e r e was no ev idence t h a t white f a m i l i e s d e s e r t e d s c h o o ls when they were d e s e g r e g a t e d . S t u d i e s made by th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t i n d i c a t e d t h a t p a r e n t s , while not happy with d e s e g r e g a t i o n , were s a t i s f i e d with what was happening in th e s c h o o ls . This s a t i s f a c t i o n with th e s choo ls may well have been th e key f a c t o r in th e r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y in t h e i r e n r o l l m e n t s . The s t a f f o f th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t worked d i l i g e n t l y to develop a pl an of implemen tation f o r d e s e g r e g a t i o n . V isitation days f o r p a r e n t s and s t u d e n t s were he ld in t h e s p r i n g t o a c q u a i n t them with th e school th ey would be a t t e n d i n g in th e f a l l . When school opened in th e f a l l , v o l u n t e e r p a r e n t s and s t a f f were on hand t o be s u r e t h a t s t u d e n t s got t o t h e p r o p e r p l a c e and were ap pro ­ p r i a t e l y welcomed. Care was taken t o c o o r d i n a t e i n s t r u c t i o n between s c h o o ls w i t h i n a c l u s t e r t o pro v id e c o n t i n u i t y . The amount of p la n n in g r e q u i r e d t o accomplish t h e s e g o a l s was e x t e n s i v e . It r e q u i r e d a high l e v e l o f c o o p e r a t i o n between a d m i n i s t r a t o r s , t e a c h e r s , and p a r e n t s . The pay o f f , however, was s u c c e s s . Without th e pl a n n i n g and c o o p e r a t i v e e f f o r t th e r e s u l t s could have been f a r different. Des egre ga ti on in Lansing could have r e s u l t e d in th e kinds o f c o n f l i c t e x p e r i e n c e d in o t h e r d i s t r i c t s , b u t th e f a c t t h a t such c o n f l i c t did n o t occur i n Lansing t e s t i f i e s to th e val ue of e f f e c t i v e p r e - p l a n n i n g and involvement. Ill I m p l i c a t i o n s f o r F u r t h e r Research This stu d y was l i m i t e d t o th e exam inat ion o f one medium s i z e d school d i s t r i c t which has undergone d e s e g r e g a t i o n . While th e r e s u l t s should be i n f o r m a t i v e and h e l p f u l t o o t h e r school d i s t i c t s , they cannot be d i r e c t l y a p p l i e d e x c e p t t o th e s e t t i n g from which they came, th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . This o r a s i m i l a r stu d y should be r e p e a t e d i n a number o f school d i s t r i c t s o f v a r y in g s i z e s and e t h n i c make up in o r d e r to expand t h e base o f knowledge a v a i l a b l e t o school d i s t r i c t s i nvolv ed in d e s e g r e g a t i o n e f f o r t s . I t would be h e l p f u l a l s o t o expand th e co n cep t o f t h i s s tu d y t o th e secondary sch oo ls o f a d i s t r i c t whose secondary s c h o o ls have undergone desegregation. There were a number o f q u e s t i o n s l e f t unanswered by t h i s stud y which lend the mselv es t o f u r t h e r r e s e a r c h . The f a c t t h a t both white and non- white e n r o l l m e n t responded in th e same d i r e c t i o n a t th e time d e s e g r e g a t i o n was implemented in the Lansing e lem en tar y schools i n v i t e s f u r t h e r s tu d y i n t o th e c a u s e s . urban l i v i n g i s a n a t i o n a l co m p la in t . D i s s a t i s f a c t i o n with Unhappiness with a r i s i n g crime r a t e , poor s e r v i c e s , and t h e p e r c e p t i o n o f i n a d e q u a t e ed uca ­ t i o n a l p o s s i b i l i t i e s i s l i m i t e d n e i t h e r t o Lansing nor t o wh it e citizens. The study done by Cusick , e t a l . , in P o n t i a c i n d i c a t e s 9 t h a t moving was more r e l a t e d t o urban l i v i n g th an t o d e s e g r e g a t i o n . I t would be i n t e r e s t i n g t o see i f a survey o f p e r s o n s l e a v i n g Lansing would y i e l d s i m i l a r r e s u l t s . ^Cus ick, e t a l . , op. c i t . , pp. 35-49. 112 The e f f e c t s t h a t changing housing p a t t e r n s in Lansing have on th e d e c i s i o n o f f a m i l i e s t o leave would lend i t s e l f t o f u r t h e r s tu d y . As d e s c r i b e d e a r l i e r in t h i s c h a p t e r , th e expansion of Oldsmobile, t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f an I n t e r s t a t e Freeway through th e h e a r t of town, and th e c o n s t r u c t i o n of th e Logan S t r e e t C o r r i d o r a c r o s s th e we st s i d e o f Lansing upr ooted many f a m i l i e s and pro vide d them, through th e s a l e o f t h e i r homes a n d / o r government r e l o c a t i o n f u n d s, with an o p p o r t u n i t y t o seek housing e i t h e r in o r out of the city. The I n t e r s t a t e Freeway alo ne removed over 600 homes and th e Logan C o r r id o r removed a n o t h e r 7 4 . ^ The f a c t t h a t many o f t h e s e f a m i l i e s were no n-w hite p r o vid e d a unique o p p o r t u n i t y f o r n a t u r a l i n t e g r a t i o n o f many Lansing and suburban neighborhoods. What e v i ­ dence we have would l e a d t o th e b e l i e f t h a t non-white f a m i l i e s in ge neral choose t o r e l o c a t e w i t h i n th e c i t y . Why t h i s happened and what impact t h e i r r e l o c a t i o n had on th e n a t u r a l d e s e g r e g a t i o n of h a l f o f L a n s i n g ' s e le m e n ta r y s c h o o ls could be a stu d y unto i t s e l f . A r e v e r s e p a t t e r n might be observed in examining what popu­ l a t i o n i s c u r r e n t l y moving i n t o th e c i t y . I t seems alm ost agr eed t h a t a f f l u e n t w h i t e s l e a v e while im poverished m i n o r i t i e s move i n . One might n o t e , however, t h a t many c e n t r a l c i t y houses and apar tm en t u n i t s a r e now being so u g h t as i n t e r e s t i n g l i v i n g p o s s i b i l i t i e s both by p r o f e s s i o n a l c ouple s w i t h o u t c h i l d r e n and by s i n g l e p eople. These groups a r e l u r e d by t h e a t t r a c t i o n s o f c i t y l i v i n g and pro x­ i m ity to t h e i r work. They do n o t , however, p r o v id e e n r o l l m e n t f o r ^ I n f o r m a t i o n gained through a t e le p h o n e c o n v e r s a t i o n with Jack Morgan, Michigan S t a t e Highway Department on October 8 , 1980. 113 p u b l i c s c h o o ls . A more c a r e f u l a n a l y s i s o f who a c t u a l l y moves i n t o Lansing and why, might add a n o t h e r dimension t o th e u n d e r s ta n d i n g of "white f l i g h t . " Another o v e r - a r c h i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s o f c o u r s e , t h e d e c l i n ­ ing b i r t h r a t e . There ar e fewer c h i l d r e n being bo rn, and school e n r o l lm e n t s in gross numbers a r e d e c l i n i n g everywhere. A detailed comparison o f b i r t h r a t e s , f o r both white and non -w hite f a m i l i e s , and e n r o l lm e n t t r e n d s might help t o determine t h e s p e c i f i c e f f e c t of th o s e b i r t h r a t e s on t h e e n r o l l m e n t t r e n d s o c c u r r i n g a t th e time of school d e s e g r e g a t i o n . I t might a l s o be f r u i t f u l to c o n s i d e r t h e employment p i c t u r e in Lansing as an element i n e n r o l lm e n t d e c l i n e . The au tomobile i n d u s t r y , a p r i n c i p l e employer, has undergone changes. While growing through much o f th e p e r i o d of t h i s s t u d y , in more r e c e n t y e a r s th e automobile i n d u s t r y has h i t upon t r o u b l e d tim e s. As p o i n t e d o ut e a r l i e r , Diamond Reo has c l o s e d , Motor Wheel has reduced employment, and in t h e l a s t two y e a r s even Oldsmobile has l a i d o f f l a r g e numbers of employees. F am il ie s l o s i n g employment i n th e l o c a l automobile r e l a t e d i n d u s t r i e s may be l e a v i n g Lansing f o r a r e a s w ith b e t t e r economic o u t l o o k s . S t a t e government, a n o t h e r major work p r o v i d e r , has begun t o d e c e n t r a l i z e , moving many o f f i c e s o u t o f downtown Lansing i n t o t h e i r Secondary Complex. F a m ilies who move t o be c l o s e r t o t h e s e o f f i c e s a l s o move i n t o e i t h e r th e suburban Waverly o r Grand Ledge school districts. 114 In f a c t , some s p e c i a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n should be given t o th e Waverly School D i s t r i c t which, as a l a r g e l y undeveloped suburb a d j a c e n t t o Lansing, e x i s t s as an a l t e r n a t i v e in s t a f f i n g , program and r a c i a l composition f o r f a m i l i e s who want t o remain c l o s e to the urban c e n t e r , b u t d e s i r e a d i f f e r e n t e d u c a t i o n a l s e t t i n g . The a v a i l ­ a b i l i t y of the Waverly School D i s t r i c t may be extr e m e l y s i g n i f i c a n t in th e l o s s o f white s t u d e n t s from th e Lansing School D i s t r i c t . Another a s p e c t which has only been touched upon i s e n r o l l m e n t i n n o n - p u b lic s c h o o l s . Data r e p o r t e d e a r l i e r show t h a t w h ile e n r o l l ­ ment in C a t h o l i c s choo ls i s d e c l i n i n g , e n r o l lm e n t in o t h e r n o n - p u b li c s c h o o ls i s r i s i n g . Research might very p r o f i t a b l y be done on the e f f e c t o f th e whole C h r i s t i a n f u n d a m e n t a l i s t movement on s c h o o li n g . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t th e growth o f C h r i s t i a n s c h o o l s , t o th e e x t e n t t h a t i t r e f l e c t s a d e s i r e on th e p a r t o f f a m i l i e s t o a c h i e v e a d i f f e r e n t typ e o f e d u c a t i o n , may be as c r i t i c a l a f a c t o r in th e d e c l i n e in p u b l i c school e n r o l lm e n t as any d e s i r e o f a f f l u e n t w h it es to avoid bus ing o r i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls . The d i f f e r e n c e in t h e r a t e o f e n r o l lm e n t change between non­ c l u s t e r s c h o o ls and th o s e s c h o o ls d e s t i n e d t o become members o f a c l u s t e r poses a n o t h e r i n t e r e s t i n g q u e s t i o n . The major d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s e two groups p r i o r t o c l u s t e r i n g was th e n a t u r a l i n t e g r a ­ t i o n o f th e n o n - c l u s t e r s c h o o ls r e f l e c t i n g the i n t e g r a t e d n e i g h b o r ­ hoods they s e r v e and t h e s e g r e g a t i o n , e i t h e r white o r n o n - w h i te , o f t h e s c h o o ls d e s t i n e d t o become members o f a c l u s t e r . Do n a t u r a l l y i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls have a g r e a t e r h o lding power th an s e g r e g a t e d s c h o o ls ? What r o l e does t h e n a t u r e o f th e neighborhoods invo lv ed 115 play ? The i m p l i c a t i o n o f g r e a t e r holding power f o r n a t u r a l l y i n t e g r a t e d s c h o o ls which r e f l e c t i n t e g r a t e d neighborhoods may m e r i t a study o f t h e p o s s i b l e s t a b i l i t y t o be ga ined thro ug h th e promotion o f r a c i a l l y i n t e g r a t e d neighborhoods. No s i n g l e study co uld hope t o answer a l l o f th e q u e s t i o n s r e l a t in g to the e f f e c t t h a t the desegregation of a d i s t r i c t ' s s ch oo ls has on t h e e n r o l lm e n t o f t h a t d i s t r i c t . This s tu d y was l i m i t e d t o an e x p l o r a t i o n o f th e s p e c i f i c q u e s t i o n s s t a t e d . An a tte m p t has been made h e r e , t o i d e n t i f y o t h e r q u e s t i o n s which would seem to be im p o r t a n t in u n d e r s t a n d in g t h e e f f e c t s o f d e s e g r e g a t i o n on e n r o l l m e n t change. The answer t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s and o t h e r r e l a t e d q u e s t i o n s could have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on pla n n in g f o r desegregation. BIBLIOGRAPHY 116 BIBLIOGRAPHY Armor, David J. White F l i g h t Demographic T r a n s i t i o n , and The Future o f School D e s e g re g a ti o n . Santa Monica: The Rand Corpora­ t i o n . 1978. Bose, Lewis C. 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AP PENDI CES 120 APPENDIX A CLUSTER GROUPS 121 APPENDI X A CLUSTER GROUPS C l u s t e r Group One (1972) C l u s t e r One C l u s t e r Two Barnes Elmhurst Lewton Main Cavanaugh Everett Maple Hill Riddle C l u s t e r Group Two (1973) C l u s t e r Three Cedar Grand River High P o s t Oak C l u s t e r Group Three (1976) C l u s t e r Four Genesee G u n n i s o n v il l e C l u s t e r Five Horsebrook Va lley Farms Willow C l u s t e r Six A llen Fairview Holmes Mt. Hope Non- Cluster Group Attwood Averill Bingham Cumberland F o r e s t View Foster Franks G ie r Park Lyons Maple Grove Maplewood Moores Park North Northwestern P l e a s a n t Grove P l e a s a n t View 122 Reo Sheridan Road Verlinden Wainwright Walnut Wexford Woodcreek A PPENDI X B MAP OF THE LANSING SCHOOL D I S T R I C T 123 APPENDI X B MAP OF THE LANSING SCHOOL D I S T R I C T C L A R K HD STOLL Ita . statc C0' CO. m iH A M * a s m c p iio a n ■- pro ELEMENTARY BUILDINGS 70 AVERILL B arnes BEEkman BINGHAM CAVANAJGH CEDAR CUMBERLAND ELMH j R S I FOREST ROAQ cnactY uic « FOREST V IE * FOSTER FRANKS GENESEE GIER PARK GRAND RIVER GJNNIS0NV1LLE HIGH HOLMES H0RSEBR00K KENDON LE a ION LYONS MAIN MAPLE GROVE MAPLE H ILL MAPLENOOO MOORES PARK MOUNT HOPE NORTH NORTHWESTERN OAK PARC PLEASANT GROVE PLEASANT V ILA POST OAK REO RlOOLC SHERIDAN ROAD VALLEY FARMS VER llN O tN A^A»12 S A 6 IN A W M T. HO PC © © i:l I.' t\ L -: C -' F .: 6 -i F. HEKJ .! HlJ -: I.1 I. I-1 L«' J. GJ. K. F. >~ ■ a in n r ic h T AALNJT © MEIFORD MILLON MOODCREEK H O LM ES RO. JUNIOR HIGH 6UIL0INCS © SENIOR HIGH BJIIO IN G S JO LLY HO. OJ © © © © ^ASTERN VERE IT SEXTON 187 EDUCATION CTR. 135 SERVICE CENTER 1*5 PUBLIC LIBRARY / 124 A PPE NDI X C LOCATION OF CLUSTER AND NON-CLUSTER SCHOOLS 125 APPENDIX C LOCATION OF CLUSTER AND NON-CLUSTER SCHOOLS C l u s t e r Schools Shown by C l u s t e r Number, N on- Cluster Schools by X ♦26 126