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University Microfilms International 300 N. Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Ml 48106 8507485 C u s h m a n , J e r r y L. A FORECAST O F FUTURE FRINGE BENEFITS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS FOR MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS Michigan State University University Microfilms International 300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106 Ph.D. 1984 A FORECAST OF FUTURE FRINGE BENEFITS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS FOR MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS By J e r r y L. Cushman A DISSERTATION Subm itted t o Michigan S t a t e U n iv e rs ity 1n p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t o f t h e re q u ire m e n ts f o r t h e d e g re e of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department o f E d ucatio nal A d m in is tra tio n 1984 ABSTRACT A FORECAST OF FUTURE FRINGE BENEFITS AND RELATED DEVELOPMENTS FOR MICHIGAN PUBLIC SCHOOL TEACHERS By J e r r y L. Cushman The pu rpose o f t h i s s tu d y was t o f o r e c a s t p o t e n t i a l changes 1n s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r t e a c h e r s 1n M ichigan's K-12 p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s and* second, r e l a t e d developm ents t h a t may have a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e In f lu e n c e on f r i n g e b e n e f i t t r e n d s f o r M ichigan's p u b lic s c h o o ls . S p e c if ic a l ly * t h e s tu d y a tte m p te d t o d e te rm in e what f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and r e l a t e d developm ents a r e l i k e l y t o occu r In t h e 1980s* 1990s* and beyond t h e y e a r 2000. Two groups o f re s p o n d e n ts were used 1n t h e stu d y : a nonrandom p o p u la tio n o f e m p lo y e e -b e n e flt a d m i n i s t r a t o r s from Michigan school d i s t r i c t s w ith 10*000 o r more s t u d e n t e n r o llm e n t and MEA u n ls e rv d i r e c ­ t o r s s e r v in g t e a c h e r un ion s s e l e c t e d from t h e g e o g ra p h ic a l a r e a s o f t h e s e l e c t e d school a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . The approach used t o e l i c i t resp o n ses from t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s was a f o r e c a s t i n g pro cedu re known a s t h e Delphi te c h n iq u e . The r e s u l t s of d a ta a n a l y s i s le d t o t h e fo llo w in g f i n d i n g s : The decade o f t h e 1980s w i l l s e e h e a l t h - r e l a t e d b e n e f i t s as t h e m ajor b e n e f i t a r e a o f I n t e r e s t . The 1990s w i l l change t o an emphasis J e r r y L. Cushman on economic b e n e f i t s w ith secondary I n t e r e s t focused on h e a l t h - r e l a t e d and p r o f e s s i o n a l b e n e f i t s . Beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and never* fa m ily - r e l a t e d and person al b e n e f i t s may r e c e iv e a t t e n t i o n . Local and re g io n a l developm ents w i l l r e c e iv e m ajor a t t e n t i o n 1n t h e 1980s. The 1990s w i l l g iv e equal a t t e n t i o n t o l o c a l / r e g i o n a l * s ta te * and n a tio n a l developm ents. Of t h e 30 developm ents o f I n t e r e s t 1n t h i s study* seven s t a t e and f i v e lo c a l o r r e g io n a l developm ents were n o t f o r e c a s t e d t o o c cu r u n t i l beyond t h e y e a r 2000 o r n e v e r. The a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and union members were v ery p o la r iz e d on t h e f u t u r e o c c u rre n c e o f t h r e e lo c a l and reg io n al* fo u r s ta t e * and t h r e e n a tio n a l developm ents. The r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents w i l l f in d t h e g r e a t e s t number o f c o n f l i c t s a t t h e lo c a l* re g io n a l* and s t a t e l e v e l s between t h e Michigan Education A s s o c ia tio n and lo c a l bo ard s o f e d u c a tio n . C o n f l i c t s f o r t h e n a tio n a l developm ents a r e e q u a lly d iv id e d between lo c a l e d u c a tio n a s s o c i a t i o n s v e rs u s lo c a l boards o f education* t h e Michigan Education A s s o c ia tio n v e rs u s lo c a l boards o f education* and t h e N ational Education A s s o c ia tio n v e rs u s l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n . P la n n in g f o r t h e F u tu re . . . I s t h e F u tu re l Unknown T h is s tu d y I s d e d ic a te d t o my wife* Joy. Because o f h e r love* s a c r i f i c e * and encouragement* t h i s work was co n tin u e d and com pleted. To my c h ild re n * Kerry* Derek* Karen* and Brenda* I e x p re s s my g r a t i t u d e and a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r t h e i r p a tie n c e and s a c r i f i c e s endured th ro u g h o u t t h e many y e a r s o f my g ra d u a te stu dy . ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish t o th an k t h e many peo p le who have c o n t r i b u t e d so much t o t h e advancement of my e d u c a tio n over t h e y e a r s . My p aren ts* who gave me t h e o p p o r tu n i ty t o go t o c o l l e g e many y e a r s ago. T h e ir s a c r i f i c e s w i l l always be remembered. Donald Johnson* who was a f r i e n d and high school p r i n c i p a l and t o l d me* "You should go I n t o t e a c h i n g . " S in c e re a p p r e c i a t i o n 1s extended t o t h e G r e e n v i lle School D i s t r i c t f o r t h e s u p p o r t and encouragem ent t o c o n tin u e my g r a d u a te p u rsu its. The members o f my committee* Drs. S ta n le y Hecker* Glen Cooper* and R obert Poland* who had t h e p a tie n c e t o g u id e me th ro u g h t h i s p ro je c t. F in a lly * my d e e p e s t g r a t i t u d e and a p p r e c i a t i o n t o Dr. Fred Ignatovich* who se rv e d a s t h e c h a ir p e r s o n o f my d o c to ra l com m itte e . 1s only th ro u g h h i s encouragem ent and guid an ce t h a t t h i s s tu d y was com pleted. It TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES........................................................................................................ v iii LIST OF F IG U R E S .................................................................................................... x LIST OF APPENDICES................................................................................................ xi C hapter I. II. THE PROBLEM............................................................................................ 1 I n tr o d u c ti o n ........................................................................................ Im portance o f t h e S t u d y .............................................................. Purpose o f t h e S t u d y ....................................................................... Research Q u e stio n s ....................................................................... P ro ce d u ra l S te p s and Methods ..................................................... D e f i n i t i o n o f Im p o rta n t Terms ................................................. L i m ita tio n s o f t h e S t u d y .............................................................. Overview o f t h e D i s s e r t a t i o n ..................................................... 1 4 5 5 7 9 14 16 REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE........................................................ 18 I n t r o d u c t i o n ........................................................................................ F rin g e B e n e f i t Trends .................................................................. F rin g e B e n e f i t s and Employee A t t i t u d e s ............................... Major F rin g e B e n e f i t s .................................................................. H ealth M aintenance O rg a n iz a tio n s ........................................ S1ck L e a v e ........................................................................................ Dental I n s u ra n c e ........................................................................... Teacher I n - S e r v i c e ( P r o f e s s io n a l Development) . . . Michigan P u b lic S c h o o ls ' F rin g e B e n e f i t s ........................... S u m m a r y ............................................................................................. F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments ..................................................... C o l l e c t i v e B arg ain in g .............................................................. S t a t e and Fed eral L e g i s l a t i o n ............................................. S e l f - I n s u r a n c e ............................................................................... F l e x i b l e ( C a f e t e r l a - S t y l e ) In s u ra n c e ............................... R e t r ie v a l B a rg a in in g .................................................................. Sources o f F u n d i n g ........................................................................... S u m m a r y ................................................................................................. 18 18 20 23 24 25 26 27 28 30 31 32 36 37 40 42 44 46 v Page III. IV. V. .............................................................. 53 I n tr o d u c ti o n ........................................................................................ Overview o f Methodology .............................................................. P o p u la tio n and Sample .................................................................. Development o f t h e Q u e s tio n n a ir e s ........................................ Data C o l l e c t i o n ............................................................................... Treatm ent o f t h e D a t a .................................................................. F rin g e B e n e f i t s and Developments ........................................ D e s i r a b i l i t y .................. . ............................................................. O rg a n iz a tio n a l F a c to rs .............................................................. S u m m a r y ..................................................................... 53 54 56 59 60 62 62 65 66 67 ANALYSIS OF DATA.................................................................................... 69 F rin g e B e n e f i t s ............................................................................... Topical Groupings o f F rin g e B e n e f i t s ............................... Summary o f F o re c a ste d Med1an-T1me-Interval Changes . Summary o f S e m i - I n t e r q u a r t i l e Changes .......................... Summary o f Median T e s t . . . . ..................... R elated F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments .................................... T opical Groupings o f F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments . . Summary o f Med1an-T1me-Interval Changes ...................... Summary o f S e m 1 -I n te r q u a r t1 le Changes .......................... Summary o f Median T e s t .................................. D e s i r a b i l i t y o f F rin g e B e n e f it Developments .................. O rg a n iz a tio n s Opposing o r S up po rting F rin ge B e n e f it Developments .................................................................................... S u m m a r y ................................................................................................. 70 71 79 81 83 84 85 93 94 96 98 METHODOLOGY OF THE STUDY 108 Ill SUMMARY AND IMPLICATIONS.................................................................. 112 General Comments ............................................................................... Summary o f Trends f o r t h e 1980s H e a lth - R e la te d B e n e f i t s .......................................................... Economic B e n e f i t s ....................................................................... F am ily-R elated and P erso nal B e n e f i t s ............................... P r o f e s s io n a l B e n e f i t s .............................................................. Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f it Developments In t h e 1980s . Local and Regional D e v e l o p m e n t s ........................................ S t a t e D e v e lo p m e n ts ....................................................................... N ational Developments .............................................................. Summary o f t h e 1 9 8 0 s ....................................................................... Summary o f F u tu re Trends f o r t h e 1 9 9 0 s ............................... H e a lth - R e la te d B e n e f i t s .......................................................... Economic B e n e f i t s ....................................................................... F a m ily -R elated and P erso nal B e n e f i t s ............................... P r o f e s s io n a l B e n e f i t s .............................................................. 114 115 115 116 117 117 118 118 119 120 120 121 121 122 123 124 vi Page Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f it Developments 1n t h e 1990s . Local and Regional D e v e l o p m e n t s ........................................ S t a t e D e v e lo p m e n ts ...................................................................... N atio nal Developments .............................................................. Summary o f t h e 1 9 9 0 s ...................................................................... Summary o f F u tu r e Trends f o r Beyond t h e Year 2000 and N e v e r ........................................................................................ H e a lth -R e la te d B e n e f i t s ......................................................... Economic B e n e f i t s ...................................................................... F a m ily -R elated and P ersonal B e n e f it s ............................... P r o f e s s io n a l Developments ..................................................... Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f it Developments f o r Beyond t h e Year 2000 and N e v e r ......................................................... Local and Regional D e v e l o p m e n t s ........................................ S t a t e D e v e lo p m e n ts ...................................................................... N ation al Developments .............................................................. Summary o f Beyond t h e Year 2000 and Never ...................... Im p lic a tio n s ........................................................................................ S u g g e stio n s f o r F u tu re Research ...................... . . . . . 133 133 135 137 138 139 144 APPENDICES.................................................................................................................. 146 BIBLIOGRAPHY .............................................................................................................. 2kB vi i 125 125 127 129 131 132 132 132 132 133 LIST OF TABLES T a b le 1. Page Summary of F rin g e B e n e f i t s Provided by Michigan School D i s t r i c t s and I n te r m e d ia te School D i s t r i c t s ............................ 29 2. Comparison o f F e d e r a l , S t a t e , and Local K-12 Revenues . . 3. Number o f I n d i v i d u a l s C ontacted and Actual P a rt1 c 1 p a tl o n ........................................................................................................... 62 4. F rin g e B e n e f its 1n t h e 1 9 8 0 s ................................................................ 72 5. F rin ge B e n e f it s 1n t h e 1 9 9 0 s ................................................................ 73 6. F rin g e B e n e f it s 1n t h e Years 2000+ and Never ............................. 75 7. Occurrence o f F rin g e B e n e f it s by T opical Grouping and Decade o f O ccurrence ............................................................................ 76 Consensus o f F rin g e B e n e f it s by Median Time I n te r v a l o f A c c e p t a n c e .............................................................................................. 78 8. 9. 10. 45 Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f i t s : Med1an-T1me-Interval Changes Between Rounds 1 and 3 ................................................. 80 Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f i t s : S e m 1 -In terq u art1 1 e Range Changes Between Rounds 1 and 3 ...................................................... 82 11. Summary o f Med1 an T e s t f o r t h e 44 F r i n g e B e n e f i t s . . . . 12. F rin g e B e n e f it Developments 1n t h e 1980s ...................................... 86 13. F rin ge B e n e f it Developments 1n t h e 1 9 9 0 s ...................................... 87 14. F rin g e B e n e f it Developments Beyond t h e 2000 and Never . . 15. Topical Grouping o f R e la te d F rin g e B e n e f it Developments by Expected Time I n t e r v a l o f O ccurrence ..................................... 89 Consensus o f F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments by Median Time I n t e r v a l s o f A c c e p t a n c e ........................................................... 91 16. viIi 83 88 Page 17. 18. 19. 20. 21 . 22 . D .l. E .l. F .l. G .l. Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments: Med1an-T1meI n te r v a l Changes Between Rounds 1 and 3 ............................... 93 Summary o f F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments: Sem1I n t e r q u a r t H e Time I n te r v a l Changes Between Rounds 1 and 3 .................................................................................... 95 Summary o f Median T e s t P o p u la tio n Comparisons f o r F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments ......................................................... 97 F rin g e B e n e f it Developments: D e s i r a b i l i t y and O rg a n iz a tio n a l F a c to r s .................................................................. 99 D e s i r a b i l i t y Comparison by T otal Responses o f Adminis­ t r a t o r and Union P a n e l i s t s ......................................................... 106 P a n e l i s t s ' P r o j e c t i o n s o f O rg a n iz a tio n s Favoring o r Opposing F rin g e B e n e f i t Developments* by Total Number o f R e s p o n s e s .................................. 109 F rin g e B e n e f i t s : Summary o f S i g n i f i c a n c e Level* Three R o u n d s ........................................................................................ 197 F rin g e B e n e f it Developments: Summary o f S ig n i f ic a n c e Level* Three Rounds ........................................................................... 202 F rin g e B e n e f i t s : Summary o f Three Rounds f o r Median* Range* and C o n s e n s u s ...................................................................... 208 F rin g e B e n e f it Developments: Summary o f Three Rounds f o r Median* Range* and Consensus ............................................ 212 ix LIST OF FIGURES F ig u r e Page 1. S te p s o f t h e Delphi Technique .......................................................... 55 2. R e l a tio n s h ip Between R e l i a b i l i t y and Group S iz e .................... 58 3. SPSS C ro s s -T a b u la tio n Program .......................................................... 65 x LIST OF APPENDICES Appendix Page A. THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE.............................................................. 1^7 B. PROFILE OF DELPHI PANELISTS C. LETTERS, FEEDBACK, AND DELPHI QUESTIONNAIRE (FIRST ROUND).......................................................................................................... .......................................................... 156 D. SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS:FRINGE BENEFITS E. SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS: RELATED FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS ........................................................................... 201 SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFITS: MEDIAN, RANGE, AND CONSENSUS................................................................................................. 207 SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS: MEDIAN, RANGE, AND CONSENSUS........................................................................... 211 F. G. H. SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS:COMPOSITE xi . . . . 152 . . . 196 215 CHAPTER I THE PROBLEM I n tr o d u c ti o n Michigan 1s e x p e r ie n c in g s e r i o u s problems as a r e s u l t o f a d e p re ss e d economy. The f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s t o fund v a rio u s s t a t e s e r v i c e s have n o t I n c re a s e d d u rin g t h e p a s t few y e a rs . F req u e n tly c i t e d re a s o n s f o r nonexpansion a r e n o t o n ly t h e d e p re ssed economy but a l s o ta x p a y e r r e s i s t a n c e t o In c re a s e d ta x e s . During a p e rio d of s ta g n a n t o r d e c li n in g reso urces* c o m p e titio n f o r a v a i l a b l e re s o u rc e s I n c r e a s e s among s t a t e a g e n c ie s and programs. In s im p le d o l l a r terms* one o f t h e most conspicuous l o s e r s 1n t h e c o m p e titio n f o r s t a t e f i n a n c i a l r e s o u r c e s has been th e K-12 school a id fund. D ram atic changes In r e c e n t s t a t e budget spending p a t t e r n s were d is c u s s e d by Dr. John G ross o f t h e U n iv e r s ity o f Michigan.^ A ccording t o him* s e v e ra l m ajor s h i f t s have r e c e n t l y o c c u rre d 1n M ichigan's s t a t e budget. S o c ia l S e rv ic e s In c re a s e d I t s s h a r e o f th e s t a t e budget from 18.235 1n f i s c a l y e a r (FY) 1971 t o 27.635 In FY 1981. S t a t e e x p e n d it u r e s f o r c o r r e c t i o n s In c re a s e d from 1.435 t o 3.135 o ver t h e same p e rio d . During t h i s time* s t a t e e x p e n d itu r e s f o r school a id (K-12) f e l l from 40.4% t o 29.2% o f t h e t o t a l b udget. A r e p o r t from t h e N ational C en ter f o r Education S t a t i s t i c s showed t h a t 1n t h e 1980-81 school y e a r Michigan paid a b o ut 30.2% o f t h e 1 2 c o s t o f p u b lic e lem en ta ry and secondary e d u c a tio n ; more th a n 64% came from lo c a l aid* m ost through p ro p e rty t a x e s . 2 The p a s t seven y e a r s have shown a drop 1n t h e s t a t e ' s s h a r e o f f i n a n c i a l s u p p o rt t o K-12 p u b lic e d u c a tio n and an I n c r e a s e 1n lo c a l a id t o t h e p o i n t where Michigan has dropped t o f o r t y - f o u r t h p la c e among s t a t e s 1n t h e p e rc e n ta g e o f s t a t e school a id . T h is s h i f t 1n f i s c a l r e s p o n s i b i l i t y f o r p u b lic e d u c a tio n t o heavy r e l i a n c e on t h e lo c a l t a x base has m a g n ifie d t h e problem o f I n e q u a l i t y o f e d u c a tio n a l o p p o rtu n ity . A b u l l e t i n from t h e Michigan S t a t e Board o f E ducation pro vid ed f i n a n c i a l d a ta t o show t h e d i s p a r i ­ t i e s 1n e x p e n d itu re s among M ichigan's school d i s t r i c t s . The c o s t o f e d u c a tio n per p u p il by d i s t r i c t ranged from a low o f $1*480 t o a high o f $3*646* w ith an average o f $ 2 *2 1 7 .3 These f i n a n c i a l d i s p a r i t i e s have been coupled w ith c u r r e n t p r e s s u r e s f o r t a x reform* such a s T1sch I and I I and Proposal A. At t h e same time* t h e s t a t e and f e d e r a l governm ents have added s i g n i f i ­ c a n t l y t o t h e 1 1 s t of mandated programs s c h o o ls must Implement w ith l i t t l e o r no f i s c a l s u p p o rt. A d d itio n a l f a c t o r s such as t e a c h e r union power v i a c o l l e c t i v e bargaining* I n c re a s e d s o c i e t a l demand f o r Improve­ ment In t h e q u a l i t y o f K-12 education* d i f f i c u l t y 1n p a ss in g m illa g e s* d e c l i n i n g s t u d e n t e n ro llm e n ts* and t h e la c k o f s t a b i l i t y 1n M ichigan's economy have In c re a s e d t h e f i n a n c i a l p r e s s u r e s on M ichigan's K-12 publ1c s c h o o l s. Of s p e c ia l I n t e r e s t among t h e s e s h i f t i n g t r e n d s have been t h e r a p i d l y r i s i n g c o s t s f o r employee f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . F ig u re s p u b lis h e d 3 In a r e c e n t l y r e le a s e d Chamber o f Commerce stu d y showed t h a t f o r companies s u b m ittin g d a ta s i n c e 1961, f r i n g e b e n e f i t payments In c re a s e d fro m 25.555 o f p a y r o l l 1n 1961 t o 32.156 1n 1971 and 41.2% In 1981. 4 N ationw ide, a p p ro x im a te ly 25 y e a r s ago 1n t h e m id dle t o l a t e 1950s, f r i n g e b e n e f i t s c o s t a b o u t 15% o f p a y r o ll. The Chamber of Commerce study I n d ic a te d t h a t , as d o l l a r s per y e a r per employee, f r i n g e b e n e f i t s In c re a s e d n e a r ly 400% from t h e l a t e 1950s t o t h e l a t e 1970s. The Chamber o f Commerce r e p o r t a l s o I n d ic a te d t h a t Michigan 1s l o c a t e d 1n t h e E a s t North C e n tra l group o f s t a t e s , where t h e h i g h e s t employee b e n e f i t s w ere paid.® i t I s t h i s w r i t e r ' s c o n te n tio n t h a t t h e high payments f o r employee b e n e f i t s 1n t h e I n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r w i l l have a d i r e c t In f lu e n c e on f r i n g e b e n e f i t s 1n M ichigan's p u b lic sch o o ls. Because Michigan I s h e a v ily I n d u s t r i a l i z e d and u n io n iz e d , I t can be e x pected t h a t t h e p u b lic s c h o o ls w i l l be s u b j e c t t o t h i s re g io n a l f a c t o r and t h a t t e a c h e r s w i l l e x p e c t s i m i l a r In c re a s e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t payments. Given t h e s e t r e n d s f o r f r i n g e b e n e f i t s o v e r r e c e n t decades and t h e c o m p e titio n f o r t h e l i m i t e d d o l l a r s a v a i l a b l e t o s c h o o ls , t h e c o s t o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r M ichigan's p u b lic school te a c h e r s has become an Im p o r ta n t t o p i c t h a t r e q u i r e s g r e a t e r a t t e n t i o n by school p e r s o n n e l. I f p r e s e n t t r e n d s c o n tin u e , I t can be assumed t h a t f r i n g e b e n e f i t s may r e q u i r e an even g r e a t e r p ro p o r tio n of school d i s t r i c t s ' o p e r a tin g c o s t s . t o grow. Both d o l l a r amounts and b e n e f i t a r e a s have c o n tin u e d W111 t h i s t r e n d c o n tin u e ? In a d d i t i o n , w hat v a r i e t i e s and ty p e s o f b e n e f i t s a r e l i k e l y t o be Im p o rta n t 1n t h e 1980s, 1990s, and 4 beyond? These q u e s t i o n s a r e e x p lo re d 1n t h e p r e s e n t I n v e s t i g a t i o n by I d e n t i f y i n g t r e n d s and developm ents p e rc e iv e d by t e a c h e r union l e a d e r s and p u b lic school employee b e n e f i t a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . Im portance o f t h e Study Recent t r e n d s I n d i c a t e t h a t f r i n g e b e n e f i t s may c o n tin u e t o expand r a p i d l y a s th e y have 1n t h e p a s t t h r e e decades. These tr e n d s w i l l be d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o t h e I n c r e a s i n g l y d i f f i c u l t problem o f s a t i s f y i n g th e need f o r f r i n g e b e n e f i t Improvements a s p e rc e iv e d by M ichigan's p u b lic school t e a c h e r s and t h e a t t e m p t s o f boards o f e d u c a tio n t o c o n ta in c o s t s w i t h i n t h e i r lo c a l school d i s t r i c t s ' b u dg ets. F rin g e b e n e f i t s have been a m a jo r b a rg a in in g o b j e c t i v e o f M ichigan's c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g p ro c e s s s i n c e t h e mid-1960s. The n e g o t i a t i o n o f h e a lt h In s u ra n c e packages* group te rm l i f e * and o th e r r e l a t e d b e n e f i t s appeared a t t h e I n i t i a l b a rg a in in g t a b l e s . S ince t h a t time* t e a c h e r unions have c o n tin u e d t o make f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a p r i o r i t y Item . T h is 1s evidenced by t h e number and v a r i e t y o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s t h a t can be found In a lo c a l d i s t r i c t ' s m a ste r agreem ent. Although d o l l a r f i g u r e s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e a c tu a l c o s t s o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s 1n M ichigan's p u b lic schools* 1 t 1s e v id e n t t h a t such b e n e f i t s c o n s t i t u t e a s i z a b l e p o r t i o n o f a lo c a l d i s t r i c t ' s o p e r a t i n g budget and w i l l r e q u i r e an even g r e a t e r p r o p o r tio n o f a school d i s t r i c t ' s o p e r a t i n g c o s t s I f p r e s e n t t r e n d s c o n tin u e . Thus* 1 t 1s v i t a l l y Im p o rta n t f o r both t e a c h e r o r g a n i z a t i o n s and school d i s t r i c t s t o study t h e f u t u r e o f t e a c h e r s ' f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a s a m a jo r f a c t o r 1n 5 t h e economic s a l a r y package o f Michigan p u b lic s c h o o ls and t o p la n f o r them. Purpose o f t h e Study T h is I n v e s t i g a t o r was concerned w ith f o r e c a s t i n g p o t e n t i a l changes in (1) s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r t e a c h e r s 1n M ichigan’s K-12 p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s and (2) developm ents t h a t may have a p o s i t i v e o r n e g a tiv e I n f lu e n c e on t r e n d s o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s 1n M ichigan's p u b lic s c h o o ls . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e w r i t e r a tte m p te d t o d e te rm in e what f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e H k e l y t o become a p a r t o f t h e t e a c h e r 's b e n e f i t package 1n t h e 1980s, 1990s, and beyond. In a d d i t i o n , t h e I n v e s t i g a t o r a tte m p te d t o I d e n t i f y developm ents t h a t may I n f lu e n c e f r i n g e b e n e f i t t r e n d s 1n t h e s e same decades o f I n t e r e s t . These f o r e c a s t s w ere s o l i c i t e d from p a r t i c i p a n t s from two m ajor I n t e r e s t e d groups: M ichigan E ducation A s s o c ia tio n (MEA) u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s and e m p lo y e e -b e n e f1 t a d m i n i s t r a t o r s from s e l e c t e d Michigan school d i s t r i c t s . R esearch Q u estion s The f o ll o w i n g q u e s t i o n s r e p r e s e n t t h e m a jo r a r e a s o f I n t e r e s t 1n t h i s s tu d y : 1. What f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e exp ected t o o ccu r 1n t h e f u tu r e ? That I s , 1n what e s t i m a t e d tim e I n t e r v a l s w i l l s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s be l i k e l y t o occur as p a r t o f t h e economic package o f M ichigan's K-12 p u b lic school te a c h e r s ? Of a d d i t i o n a l I n t e r e s t was d e te rm in in g w heth er t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s w ere from p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median. 6 2. What lo c a l* s ta t e * and n a tio n a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents a r e e x pected t o o c cu r In t h e f u t u r e ? S p e c if ic a l ly * 1n what e s t i m a t e d t im e I n t e r v a l s a r e s p e c i f i c developm ents l i k e l y t o occu r? Again* d e te rm in in g w hether t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s could be c o n sid e re d as p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median was o f I n t e r e s t . 3. Are t h e r e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e l e c t e d a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s w ith re g a rd t o t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents o c c u r rin g ? T h a t 1s* does one group p e rc e iv e t h e developm ent as more d e s i r a b l e o r l e s s d e s i r a b l e th a n does t h e o th e r group? 4. What o r g a n i z a t i o n a l u n i t s a r e most l i k e l y t o oppose o r s u p p o r t t h e o c c u rre n c e o f s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents? That 1s* w hat a s s o c ia tio n s * go vern ing boards* a d m i n i s t r a t i v e groups* o r l e g i s l a t i v e b o d ie s does t h e c o m p o site panel o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s p e r c e iv e as t h e most l i k e l y o r g a n i z a t i o n a l u n i t s t o s u p p o r t o r oppose s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t developments? The f o r e c a s t i n g p ro c e d u re used t o answ er t h e s e q u e s t i o n s was t h e Delphi te c h n iq u e . (An e x p la n a tio n o f t h e Delphi te c h n iq u e 1s c o n ta in e d In Appendix A.) T h is technique* developed by t h e Rand Corpo­ ra tio n * in v o lv e s c o n t r o l l e d o p ln lo n -fe e d b a c k p ro c e d u re s In which a panel o f e x p e r ts exchanges reasoned o p in io n s anonymously. The Delphi te c h n iq u e has two m ajor ad v an ta g e s t h a t a r e Im p o r ta n t t o t h e framework o f t h i s stu d y : 1. con sen sus. The feedback p ro c e s s te n d s t o produce a c o nv ergin g group 7 2. The Delphi te c h n iq u e does n o t r e q u i r e d i r e c t c o n f r o n ta tio n of t h e p a n e l i s t s and c o n se q u e n tly e l i m i n a t e s t h e I n f lu e n c e o f s tro n g p e r s o n a l i t i e s who o f te n dom inate m eetin gs. Second* t h e d a ta can be g e n e ra te d w ith o u t t h e re s p o n d e n ts r e a l i z i n g t h a t two n o rm ally opposing p a n e l i s t groups a r e p a r t i c i p a t i n g (1n t h i s study* u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s and school a d m i n i s t r a t o r s ) . P ro ce d u ra l S teps and Methods The prim ary p urpo se of t h i s r e s e a r c h e r was t o g a th e r Inform a­ t i o n about tr e n d s o f s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and r e l a t e d developm ents f o r Michigan’s K-12 p u b l i c school t e a c h e r s . Although many groups such as boards o f education* s u p e rin te n d e n ts * and c i t i z e n s have an I n t e r e s t 1n t h i s Issue* t h e w r i t e r assumed t h a t two groups 1n p a r t i c u l a r have a v i t a l concern and a r e under c o n s t a n t p r e s s u r e t o deal w ith f r i n g e b e n e f i t I s s u e s 1n n e g o tia te d m a s te r c o n t r a c t ag reem ents. These two groups a r e s p e c i a l i z e d employee b e n e f i t a d m in is tr a to r s * found only 1n M ichigan’s l a r g e school d i s t r i c t s * and MEA u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s r e p r e s e n t ­ ing lo c a l t e a c h e r unions. The Delphi te c h n iq u e was used t o e l i c i t re sp o n se s from t h e p a rtic ip a n ts. T his te c h n iq u e was s e l e c t e d f o r I t s a b i l i t y t o be used 1n lo n g -ra n g e te c h n i c a l f o r e c a s t i n g w ith o u t d i r e c t I n t e r a c t i o n o f o r c o n f r o n t a t i o n s among t h e s e l e c t e d p a n e l i s t s . The I n i t i a l s te p In co n d u ctin g t h e stu dy was t o I d e n t i f y t h e school d i s t r i c t a d m i n i s t r a t o r s who would p a r t i c i p a t e 1n t h e r e s e a rc h . Using t h e Michigan Education D ir e c to r y (1980), 28 school d i s t r i c t s were I d e n t i f i e d t h a t had e n r o llm e n ts o f 10*000 o r more s tu d e n t s . Further* 8 1 t was d e term in e d t h a t each o f t h e s e d i s t r i c t s employed an employee b e n e fit ad m in istra to r. Dr. S ta n le y Hecker o f Michigan S t a t e U n iv e rs ity a s s i s t e d In t h e s e l e c t i o n o f s p e c i f i c a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . Then* w ith t h e a s s i s t a n c e of Fred Comer* MEA A s s o c ia te D irector* a 1 1 s t o f 28 u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s was com piled. d ire c to rs: He used two m ajor c r i t e r i a 1n s e l e c t i n g t h e (1) t h e i r e x p e r ie n c e w ith and knowledge o f t e a c h e r f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r Michigan’s p u b lic school t e a c h e r s and (2) t h e i r employment 1n t h e g e o g ra p h ica l a r e a s o f t h e s e l e c t e d school a d m i n i s t r a t o r s . Next* t h e I n v e s t i g a t o r com piled l i s t s o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and developm ents. He p re p a red t h e s e l i s t s on t h e b a s i s o f h is p r o f e s s io n a l e x p e r ie n c e and from exam ining t h e r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e on t h i s to p ic . These l i s t s w ere review ed f o r c l a r i t y and c o n te n t by t h e r e s e a r c h e r 's d o c to ra l c o m m itte e and th e n s e n t t o t h e 56 p o t e n t i a l p a n e l i s t s f o r any a d d itio n s * d e le tio n s * o r c l a r i f i c a t i o n s . T h is f i e l d t e s t i n g o f t h e In s tru m e n t 1n t h e I n i t i a l p i l o t round r e s u l t e d 1n t h e c l a r i f i c a t i o n o f s i x Ite m s and t h e a d d i t i o n o f 14 new f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and f o u r new f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. From t h e s e I n i t i a l p ro c e d u re s and w ith t h e a s s i s t a n c e of Dr. F re d e ric k Ig n a to v ic h o f t h e Departm ent o f A d m in is tr a tio n and Curriculum* Michigan S t a t e U n iv ersity* a q u e s t i o n n a i r e was developed t h a t c o n ta in e d 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents and 44 s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n efits. Using t h e Delphi technique* t h e I n s tru m e n t was s u b m itte d t o p a n e l i s t s t h r e e tim e s ; th e y provided feedback 1n t h e second and t h i r d rounds. 9 The two groups o f p a n e l i s t s were asked (1) t o respond t o t h e Delphi I n s tru m e n t 1n I t s p r e s e n t form and (2) t o p ro v id e a d d itio n a l comments o r feedback t h a t would be conveyed t o o t h e r p a n e l i s t s In su cc e ed in g rounds. All re s p o n se s were anonymous. Definition of Important Terms The f o llo w in g te r m s a r e d e fin e d t o c l a r i f y t h e i r usage 1n t h i s stu d y. I t should be noted t h a t re s p o n d e n ts w ere n o t prov ided w ith o p e r a tio n a l d e f i n i t i o n s because o f t h e c o m p lic a tio n s t h i s m ig h t have c r e a te d . For example* h e a lt h In su ra n c e packages can c o n ta in a v a r i e t y o f b e n e f i t s and o p tio n s ( n e g o tia b le Ite m s) t h a t a r e so numerous 1 t would be I m p r a c tic a l t o d e f in e them a l l . P ro v id in g a d e t a i l e d o p e ra ­ t i o n a l d e f i n i t i o n o f h e a l t h In s u ra n c e packages would have focused t h e re s p o n d e n ts ' a t t e n t i o n on s p e c i f i c a s p e c t s o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t and n o t on t h e g e n e ra l ty p e o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t . Given t h a t t h e re s p o n d e n ts w ere a l l e x p e r t s 1n t h e a r e a o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s (types* costs* and s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l Im p lic a tio n s )* th e y s h a re d a common d e f i n i t i o n o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and f a c t o r s I n f lu e n c in g t h e i r o ccu rren ce. A d m in is tr a to r s The l o c a l - l e v e l employee who 1s r e s p o n s i b l e f o r a d m in is te r in g t h e f i n a n c i a l a s p e c t s o f t e a c h e r f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages. C ancer I n s u ra n c e s A group In s u ra n c e program t h a t t y p i c a l l y pays b e n e f i t s f o r medical s e r v i c e s and c o s t s due t o I l l n e s s e s caused by c an cer. Cancer p la n s a r e designed t o p ro v id e a d d itio n a l d o l l a r s because o f t h e high c o s t s r e l a t e d t o c an c e r t r e a t m e n t s t h a t can exceed normal h e a lth In su ra n ce cov erag e. 10 Consumer p r i c e Index (CPI): A monthly s t a t i s t i c a l measure o f th e average change 1n p r i c e s In a f i x e d m a rk e t b a s k e t o f goods and serv ice s. C o o rdin ated b a r g a in in g ; An o r g a n i z a t i o n o f many lo c a l a s s o c i a t i o n s 1n a lo o s e c o n fe d e ra tio n * 1n which t h e lo c a l a s s o c i a t i o n amends I t s c o n s t i t u t i o n t o re c o g n iz e t h e re g io n a l c o o rd in a te d b a rg a in ­ ing com m ittee. Then* t h e lo c a l a s s o c i a t i o n g iv e s t h e re g io n a l c o o r d i­ n ated b a rg a in in g c o m m itte e a u t h o r i t y t o approve o r r e j e c t n e g o tia te d wages and o t h e r c o n d itio n s o f employment a r r i v e d a t 1n t h e lo c a l d i s ­ tric t. C ost o f l i v i n g a d ju s tm e n t (COLA): An j u s t m e n t 1n com pensation 1n re sp o n se t o I n f l a t i o n . D elphi te c h n i q u e : A s e t o f p ro c e d u re s o r methodology design ed t o e l i c i t and r e f i n e o p in io n s t o a r r i v e a t consensus on t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f a f u t u r e e v e n t. D ental I n s u ra n c e : A group In su ra n ce program t h a t t y p i c a l l y pays f o r some p o r ti o n o f d e n ta l s e r v i c e s f o r an employee and h i s / h e r fa m ily . Dependent l i f e In s u ra n c e : A group In s u ra n c e program t h a t t y p i c a l l y pays a s p e c i f i e d amount upon t h e death o f an em ployee's spouse a n d /o r dependent c h i l d r e n . D i s a b i l i t y In s u ra n c e : In s u ra n c e design ed t o compensate In d iv i d u a ls who l o s e wages because o f I l l n e s s o r In ju r y . P la n s s p e c if y t h e number o f days ( s h o r t term o r long term ) b e n e f i t s w i l l be p aid and 11 p a r t i c u l a r c o n d itio n s ( s ic k days and I n i t i a l w a i t i n g p e rio d ) t h e employee must meet. ERISA: The Employee R e tire m e n t Income S e c u r ity Act o f 1974* which 1s o f d i r e c t b e n e f i t t o employees because 1 t (a) p r o h i b i t s pen­ s io n e l i g i b i l i t y ru les* (b) e s t a b l i s h e s minimum v e s t i n g stan d a rd s* and (c) e s t a b l i s h e s an In s u ra n c e plan t o p r o t e c t pension funds. F rin g e b e n e f i t : A payment re c e iv e d by a Michigan p u b lic school t e a c h e r In a d d i t i o n t o wages* t h e c o s t o f which 1s p aid p a r t i a l l y o r t o t a l l y by t h e school d i s t r i c t . Excluded from t h i s s tu d y a r e mandated f r i n g e b e n e f i t s such a s S o c ia l S ecurity * w o rk e r's compensation* unem­ ploym ent Insurance* and t e a c h e r r e t i r e m e n t . T opical gro up ing s o f bene­ f i t s * a s used 1n t h i s study* a r e (1) h e a l t h - r e l a t e d * (2) economic* (3) f a m i l y - r e l a t e d o r personal* and (4) p r o f e s s i o n a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . F r ln g e - b e n e f lt- d e v e lo p m e n ts : I d e n t i f i e d f a c t o r s t h a t may o r may n o t a f f e c t f r i n g e b e n e f i t s now o r In t h e fu tu re* such as In d iv id u ­ a l l y t a i l o r e d c a f e t e r l a - s t y l e plans* s e l f - 1 n s u r a n c e o f b e n e f i t s by lo c a l d i s t r i c t s * and so on. For t h e purposes o f t h i s study* t h e d e v el­ opments o f I n t e r e s t were c a t e g o r iz e d I n to t h r e e t o p i c a l g ro u p in g s: (1) lo c a l and reg io n al* (2) s ta t e * H e alth I n s u ra n c e : c o s t s due t o I l l n e s s . and (3) n a tio n a l developm ents. G e n e ra lly a p p lie d t o m edical s e r v i c e s and B e n e f it s and p la n s a r e u s u a ll y n e g o tia te d through r e g u l a r In s u ra n c e companies. H e a lth m aintenance o r g a n iz a ti o n (HMO): An o r g a n i z a t i o n o f h e a lt h c a r e personnel and f a c i l i t i e s t h a t d e l i v e r s a com prehensive 12 range o f h e a lt h s e r v i c e s t o members who e n r o l l v o l u n t a r i l y and pay a f i x e d , p re p a id f e e . Hearing c a r e In s u ra n c e : In s u ra n c e t h a t g e n e r a l l y c o v e rs medical s e r v i c e s and c o s t s r e l a t e d t o h e a r in g d i s o r d e r s . Such In s u ra n c e t y p i c a l l y pays f o r some p o r ti o n o f s e r v i c e s and h e a r in g a i d s f o r an employee and h i s fa m ily . Home In s u ra n c e : A group p la n 1n which t h e school d i s t r i c t would pay a n e g o tia te d amount t o co v er p ro p e rty damage and l i a b i l i t y on t h e em p lo yee's p erso n al p r o p e r ty . Home-mortgage In s u ra n c e : A n e g o tia te d p la n t h a t would pay t h e rem aining amount owed on a home I f t h e employee d ie d . Legal p la n In s u ra n c e : counsel on l e g a l m a t t e r s . In s u ra n c e t h a t p ro v id e s a d v ice and In a d d i t i o n t o g iv in g em ployees le g a l pro­ t e c t i o n w h ile a t work. I t p ro v id e s f o r counsel on p r i v a t e m a t t e r s w ith a n e g o tia te d plan d e s ig n a tin g a llo w a b l e tim e and d is c o u n te d c o s t s . Longevity pav: se n io rity . Wage a d ju s tm e n ts based on le n g th o f s e r v i c e o r C o n tr a c ts o r pay p la n s f r e q u e n t l y s t a t e s p e c i f i c tim e p e rio d s t o q u a l i f y f o r such upward wage a d ju s tm e n ts . O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s : S p e c ific p ro fessional or p o litic a l groups t h a t may s u p p o rt o r oppose s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. Examples a r e boards o f e d u c a tio n , a s s o c i a t i o n s , and l e g i s l a t i v e b o d ie s. Reg io n a l b a r g a in in g ; The te rm used t o d e s c r ib e t h e MEA's e f f o r t s t o I n c r e a s e and Improve I t s b a rg a in in g power by c o l l e c t i v e l y In v o lv in g more th a n one lo c a l employee u n i t In la b o r r e l a t i o n s . lo c a l a s s o c i a t i o n r e q u e s ts d e c e r t i f i c a t i o n o f t h e fo rm e r lo c a l The 13 a s s o c i a t i o n and r e - c e r t 1 f 1 c a t i o n o f a new re g io n a l a s s o c i a t i o n f o r b a rg a in in g p u rp o se s. S a b b a tic a l l e a v e ; U su a lly le n g th y p a id le a v e f o r p r o f e s s i o n a l * I n t e l l e c t u a l * o r em otional r e fu rb is h m e n t. S e lf-In su ran c e ; Assumption by a school d i s t r i c t of I t s own r i s k I n s te a d o f I n s u r in g th rou g h a g e n eral In s u ra n c e c a r r i e r o r company. S1ck l e a v e : Time o f f from work a llo w ed t o an employee because o f I l l n e s s * a c c id e n t* o r o t h e r I n c a p a c ity . T a x -sh e lte r a n n u ity ; An a n n u ity whose employee c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e n o t s u b j e c t t o t a x e s a t t h e tim e t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s a r e made. Con­ t r i b u t i o n s a r e l a t e r ta x e d a s th e y a r e paid o u t a f t e r re tire m e n t* when t h e a n n u i t a n t I s presumably In a low er t a x b r a c k e t. Term l i f e I n s u r a n c e : Temporary In su ra n c e t h a t o f f e r s p r o t e c t i o n f o r an employee d u rin g t h e c o u rs e o f h i s / h e r employment and has no cash v alu e. I t may In c lu d e an a c c id e n ta l d eath and dismember­ ment provision* which would p ro v id e a d d itio n a l amounts f o r a c c id e n ta l l o s s o f l i f e o r s p e c i f i e d amounts f o r t h e l o s s o f a Umb o r an organ. S u rv iv o r Income I n s u r a n c e ; S u rv iv o r b e n e f i t s paid t o widows o r o t h e r s u r v iv o r s 1n c a s e o f d eath r e s u l t i n g from s p e c i f i e d c a u s e s . Travel a c c id e n t I n s u r a n c e ; Pays b e n e f i t s f o r a c c id e n ta l d eath o r dismemberment In c u rre d w h ile t r a v e l i n g 1n a p r i v a t e o r commercial c a r r i e r * w ith s p e c i f i e d e x c lu s io n s . 14 U n 1 s e rv -d 1 re c to rs s The employee group o f t h e Michigan Education A s s o c ia tio n r e s p o n s i b l e f o r c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g a t t h e lo c a l a n d /o r re g io n a l l e v e l . V isio n In s u ra n c e : B e n e f i t s t y p i c a l l y c o v e rin g a range o f s e r v ic e s * such a s eye exam inations* c o r r e c t i v e lenses* and fram es. L im ita tio n s o f t h e Study The p o p u la tio n o f t h e stu d y was l i m i t e d t o t h e g e o grap hic a r e a s o f Michigan t h a t c o n ta in e d school d i s t r i c t s w ith p o p u la tio n s o f 10*000 o r more s t u d e n t s . I t was assumed t h a t t h e s e school d i s t r i c t s employ a d m i n i s t r a t o r s who work w ith f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and employee r e l a t i o n s on a f u l l - t i m e b a s i s and have e x p e r t i s e not g e n e r a lly found 1n s m a l l e r d i s t r i c t s * where a d m i n i s t r a t o r s have more d iv e r s e r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s . The MEA a s s i s t e d In s e l e c t i n g u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s lo c a t e d 1n t h e same g e o g raph ic a r e a a s t h e s e l e c t e d a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and who l i k e w i s e had e x p e r t i s e 1n f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and employee r e l a t i o n s . I f t h e s e l e c t i v e l y chosen re s p o n d e n ts a r e c o n sid e re d as tr e n d s e t t e r s f o r f r i n g e b e n e f its * t h e f i n d i n g s o f t h e stu d y may be g e n e r a liz e d t o a l l p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s In Michigan. The o p in io n s o f t h i s s e l e c t group o f e x p e r t s should* th e r e f o r e * r e f l e c t v a l i d f o r e c a s t s o f f u t u r e f r i n g e b e n e f i t t r e n d s and r e l a t e d developm ents 1n Michigan. I t should be noted t h a t t h i s I n v e s t i g a t o r d id n o t s o l i c i t e x p e r t o p in io n from members o f o th e r know ledgeable b o d ie s w ith in t h e s ta te * such a s boards o f education* c e n t r a l o f f i c e and b u ild in g a d m in is tr a to r s * te a c h e rs * and p r i v a t e In su ra n c e a g e n ts . 15 A p i l o t round was used t o e l i c i t re sp o n se s from p o t e n t i a l re s p o n d e n ts b e fo re t h e s tu d y . Based on comments made d u rin g t h e p i l o t round* new Item s were In c o rp o ra te d I n t o t h e Delphi survey In s tru m e n t f o r su b se q u e n t rounds. Responses t o each su cceed in g round were b u i l t on answ ers from t h e p re c e d in g round. p e r m it v a r io u s I n t e r p r e t a t i o n s . T his method u ses opinions* which Because o f t h e le n g th o f t h e survey I n s tru m e n t and t h e v a r i e t y o f Items* 1 t 1s n o t known w h eth er respond­ e n t s were s t a t i n g reason ed v a lu e jud gm ents o r sim p ly p ro v id in g p o o rly c o n sid e re d p o s i t i o n s o r b i a s e s . The l a t t e r p o s s i b i l i t y was m inim ized by r e q u e s tin g and p ro v id in g o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r t h e re s p o n d e n ts t o make comments t o p ro v id e a s u p p o r tin g r a t i o n a l e f o r t h e i r re sp o n se s t o s p e c i f i c su rvey Item s. These comments were provided a s feedback t o o t h e r p a r t i c i p a n t s In su cc e ed in g rounds. The Ite m s used 1n t h e survey In s tru m e n t were developed by In v o lv in g t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s 1n t h e I n i t i a l s ta g e s . O ther Item s were developed th ro u g h an e x t e n s i v e review o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e . Because of t h e r a p i d l y changing n a t u r e o f M ichigan's economy* p o l i t i c a l a c t i v i t y * and o t h e r changing c o n d itio n s * t h e f ix e d a s p e c t o f t h e su rv ey I n s t r u ­ ment d id n o t a llo w t h e f l e x i b i l i t y o f adding Ite m s In t h i s Delphi stu dy . However* feedback d id a llo w t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s t o a l t e r t h e i r re sp o n se s as t h e s tu d y p ro g resse d . I t was assumed t h a t such feedback would make p a r t i c i p a n t s aware o f f a c t o r s t h a t m ig h t I n f lu e n c e an Item o f I n t e r e s t * th u s e n a b lin g them t o f o r e c a s t a p a r t i c u l a r f u t u r e more a c c u r a te ly . A nother l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e s tu d y was t h e c o n tr iv e d c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g s i t u a t i o n b u i l t I n to t h e s tu d y . The Delphi te c h n iq u e does 16 n o t a llow f a c e - t o - f a c e com m unications, as one would n orm ally f in d a t th e n eg o tiatio n ta b le . A lso, t h e two groups o f p a r t i c i p a n t s w ere n o t aw are t h a t th e y were r e c e i v i n g in f o r m a tio n e l i c i t e d from two subpopulatlo n s. Whether t h e f o r e c a s t s and re s p o n se s would have been c o n s i s t e n t under a d i f f e r e n t c o n tr iv e d s e t t i n g 1s open t o c o n je c tu r e . Overview o f t h e D i s s e r t a t i o n In C hapter I , t h e background f o r t h e stud y was provided. The Im p ortance and purpose o f t h e stu d y were d is c u s s e d , and t h e r e s e a r c h q u e s t i o n s o f I n t e r e s t w ere p re s e n te d . F i n a l l y , t h e p ro c e d u ral s t e p s , d e f i n i t i o n s o f te r m s , and l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e r e s e a r c h w ere e x p la in e d . C h ap ter I I c o n ta i n s a review of t h e l i t e r a t u r e r e l e v a n t t o t h e study. The methodology used 1n t h i s r e s e a r c h 1s d e s c rib e d 1n C h apter I I I . C h apter IV c o n ta i n s t h e a n a l y s i s o f d a ta as 1 t r e l a t e s t o t h e re s e a rc h q u e s ti o n s . A summary o f t h e s tu d y , c o n c lu s io n s based on r e s u l t s o f t h e d a ta a n a l y s i s , I m p l i c a t i o n s , and s u g g e s tio n s f o r f u t u r e re s e a rc h may be found 1n C h apter V. 17 Fo otn otes--C hapter_ I Ijo h n G* Gross# "Michigan S t a t e E x p e n d itu re s and t h e P r o v is io n o f P u b lic S e rv ic e s# " c o n ta in e d In a l e t t e r t o ISD s u p e r i n t e n d e n t s from Dr. James Phelps# Michigan S t a t e D epartm ent o f Education# A pril 15# 1982. ^"N ation al C en ter f o r Education S t a t i s t i c s Report#" 1n S ta te w id e Communication and D is se m in a tio n System S ta te w id e N e w s le tte r (Lansing# Mich: S ta te w id e Communication and D is se m in a tio n System# December 1982). 3 M.lchlgan K-12 P u b lic .Sch Approp­ r i a t e n e s s and competence of panel. Each panel member has been a p p r o p r ia te ly chosen and 1s com petent t o re n d e r t h e judgm ent r e q u ir e d , (c) Commitment o f panel. Panel members w i l l g iv e c a r e ­ f u l l y co n sid e re d judgm ents t o re p e ate d q u e s t i o n n a i r e Item s. (d) C l a r i t y o f q u e s ti o n n a ir e . Respondents w i l l u n d e rstan d t h e q u e s ti o n n a ir e Item s, (e) Independence o f re sp o n se s. Responses w ill not be a f f e c t e d by s t a t i s t i c a l r e p o r t i n g o f o t h e r re sp o n se s a s they would by p r e s s u r e s of a convened group, (f) P e r s o n a l i t y d i f f e r e n c e s o f panel. In d iv id u a l d i s p o s i t i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s w i l l n o t a f f e c t response p a t t e r n s , (g) Nonrespondents. There 1s no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between re s p o n d e n ts and th o s e who f a l l t o com plete and r e tu r n t h e survey In s tru m e n t.4 Number 1n Group F ig u re 2 . — R e la tio n s h ip between r e l i a b i l i t y and group s i z e . 59 A Chamber o f Commerce study I n d ic a te d t h a t l a r g e r companies te n d t o pay h ig h e r b e n e f i t s th a n s m a l l e r onesJ* Consequently# l a r g e r school d i s t r i c t s may fo llo w t h e same p a t t e r n and be tr e n d s e t t e r s f o r Michigan p u b lic school t e a c h e r s ' f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . Second# l a r g e d i s t r i c t s employ p eo p le who a r e p r i m a r i l y r e s p o n s ib le f o r employee b e n e f i t s and who t h e r e f o r e become more s p e c i a l i z e d 1n t h e i r jo b assign m en ts The th a n do a d m i n i s t r a t o r s In s m a lle r d i s t r i c t s . u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s were s e l e c t e d on t h e b a s i s o f lo n g e v ity 1n t h e i r p o s i t i o n s and a l s o by t h e i r geo g rap h ical p ro x im ity t o t h e l a r g e school d i s t r i c t s . Thus# t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s provided t h e e x p e r t i s e needed t o f o r e c a s t t h e f u t u r e o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r M ichigan's p u b lic school te a c h e r s . Development o f t h e Q u e s tio n n a ire s The of I n i t i a l q u e s t i o n n a i r e Ite m s were d e riv e d th ro ug h a se a rc h re le v an t l i t e r a t u r e . Recommendations o f a d d itio n a l Item s were o b ta in e d from d is c u s s io n s w ith personnel from companies Involved w ith school d i s t r i c t In su ra n c e programs. F 1 fty -s 1 x p i l o t q u e s t i o n n a i r e s w ere m ailed t o s e l e c t e d a d m in is ­ t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s . m ajor purposes. o b ta in e d . T his I n i t i a l p i l o t round serv ed t h r e e F ir s t# a commitment t o p a r t i c i p a t e 1n t h e stud y was T h i r ty I n d i v i d u a l s I n d ic a te d a w i l l i n g n e s s t o p a r t i c i p a t e In t h e Delphi stu dy . This I n i t i a l group com prised 12 a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and 18 u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s . Second# t h e c l a r i t y o f 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t Item s and 26 developm ent Item s was a s s e s s e d . c l a r i f y t h e w ording. Six Item s w ere changed t o F in a lly # t h e p o t e n t i a l p a n e l i s t s w ere re q u e s te d 60 t o add any a d d itio n a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and developm ents t h a t should be Included 1n t h e study. From t h i s Input* r e v i s i o n s were made. Fourteen new f r i n g e b e n e f i t s were added* making t h e f i n a l number 44 Item s. Four new f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents were added* b r in g in g t h e t o t a l number t o 30. Data C o lle c ti o n In general* t h i s Delphi stu dy r e q u e s te d re s p o n d e n ts t o s e l e c t a tim e I n te r v a l f o r t h e e x p ected o c c u rre n c e o f an ev en t. F irst-ro u n d re sp o n se s w ere summarized* and t h e median and sem 1 -1 n te rq u a rt1 1 e ranges o f re sp o n se s w ere computed and fe d back t o t h e re sp o n d en ts w ith a re q u e s t t o r e v i s e t h e i r f i r s t - r o u n d e s tim a te s * where a p p r o p r ia te . Respondents w ere asked t o p ro v id e w r i t t e n comments 1f th e y wished t o do so. On t h e second and t h i r d rounds* p a r t i c i p a n t s w ere g iv en t h e i r re sp o n se s t o t h e p re v io u s round* w r i t t e n comments made by t h e respondents* a new median* and a new s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range. The p a r t i c i p a n t s w ere th e n given a n o th e r o p p o r tu n ity t o r e c o n s id e r and r e v i s e e a r l i e r o p in io n s o r e s t i m a t e s . t h e t h i r d round. T h is p ro c e s s c o n tin u e d through Those I n d i v i d u a l s whose o p in io n s d e v ia te d g r e a t l y from t h e m a jo r ity ( o u ts id e t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range) were re q u e ste d on t h e second and t h i r d rounds t o g iv e t h e re a so n s f o r t h e i r extrem e o p in io n s . This p ro c e ss prov id ed f o r (1) anonymity* (2) c o n t r o l l e d fe e d ­ back* and (3) s t a t i s t i c a l group respo nse. Anonymity* provided by th e 61 use o f m a ile d q u e s tio n n a ir e s * reduced t h e e f f e c t o f dom inant I n d i ­ v id u a ls . The study re sp o n d en ts were n o t aw are t h a t both a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s w ere p a r t i c i p a n t s . C o n tro lle d feedback was o b ta in e d by co n d u ctin g t h e e x e r c i s e In a sequence o f rounds* between which a summary o f t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e p re v io u s round was given t o th e p a rtic ip a n ts. This pro vid ed each o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s (and groups) w ith t h e r a t i o n a l e s u p p o r tin g t h e s e l e c t i o n o f a p a r t i c u l a r re sp o n se . The purpose o f p ro v id in g I n f o rm a tio n feedback was t o e l i c i t more p r e c i s e p r e d i c t i o n s and t o encourage o p in io n convergence. F in a lly * a s t a t i s t i ­ cal a n a l y s i s o f t h e group re s p o n se s was perform ed t o In s u r e t h a t th e o p in io n o f every member o f each group was r e p r e s e n te d 1n t h e f i n a l re su lts. I n d iv id u a l and group e s t i m a t i o n s were exp ected t o move c l o s e r t o t h e s t a t i s t i c a l summary o f group re s p o n s e s 1n each su cc e ed in g round. However* th o s e Item s t h a t showed a div e rg e n ce between t h e groups o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s were o f s p e c i a l I n t e r e s t . These Ite m s could I n d i c a t e p o t e n t i a l c o n f l i c t s a t t h e b a rg a in in g t a b l e . A summary o f t h e number of I n d i v i d u a l s c o n ta c te d f o r each round and a c tu a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n 1s shown 1n T a b le 3. e n t s was made a f t e r each round. Follow -up o f nonrespond­ The f i n a l 1 1 s t o f 19 p a n e l i s t s who p a r t i c i p a t e d In t h e c o m p le te stu dy com prised n in e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and t e n u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s . 1n Appendix B. A p r o f i l e o f t h e s e p a r t i c i p a n t s 1s p re s e n te d 62 Table 3 . — Number o f I n d i v i d u a l s c o n ta c te d and a c tu a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n . In d iv id u als C ontacted Round Round Round Round Round 0 I II III Actual P a rtic ip a tio n P e r c e n t (56) P a rticip a tio n 53.556 100.0 80.0 7 9 .0 30 30 24 19 56 30 30 24 T reatm en t o f t h e Data F rin g e B e n e f i t s and Developments T h is r e s e a r c h e r was p r i m a r i l y concerned w ith f o r e c a s t i n g t h e o c c u rre n c e o f f u t u r e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and developm ents I n f lu e n c in g t h e i r oc cu rren c e . S p e c if ic a l ly * t h e stu dy was In te n d e d t o d e te rm in e when s e l e c t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e l i k e l y t o e x i s t f o r 5056 o r more o f M ichi­ gan 's p u b lic school t e a c h e r s and when p o t e n t i a l developm ents w i l l have an I n f lu e n c e on changes 1n f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . The f r i n g e b e n e f i t and developm ent d a ta c o l l e c t e d 1n t h e f i r s t tw o rounds o f t h e q u e s t i o n n a i r e were used t o p ro v id e feedback t o t h e re s p o n d e n ts . A f te r each round* t h e d a ta w ere summarized and r e tu r n e d w ith t h e f o r e c a s t e d median d a te o f o c c u rre n c e as a measure o f c e n t r a l tendency and t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range provided a s a measure o f d is p e rsio n * In c lu d in g any rem ark s made by t h e re sp o n d en ts. The summar­ iz e d d a ta Inclu ded feedback from both groups o f re sp o n d en ts. The median d a te s o f o c c u rre n c e from t h e t h i r d and f i n a l round pro vid ed e s t i m a t e s o f when f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and r e l a t e d developm ents would occur. 63 To d e te rm in e 1f t h e two resp o n d en t groups w ere from t h e same p o p u la tio n w ith r e s p e c t t o f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and developments* t h e median t e s t was used. A 2 x K c o n tin g e n cy t a b l e was s e t up* e n t e r i n g t h e number o f s c o r e s above t h e median and t h e number a t o r below t h e median f o r each o f t h e two groups f o r each f r i n g e b e n e f i t and developm ent Item f o r each round. Using t h e s e data* a c h i - s q u a r e v a lu e was computed* t e s t i n g t h e h y p o th e se s : HQ: The two sam ples a r e from t h e same p o p u la tio n w ith t h e same median. H-|: The two sam ples a r e from p o p u la tio n s w ith unequal medians ( t w o - t a 1 l e d ) . In I n t e r p r e t i n g t h i s c h 1 -s q u a re a n a ly s is * d f = (2-1) (k-1) was used* which re d u c e s t o k-1* o r one l e s s th a n t h e number o f sam ples. If t h e computed ch1 s q u a re exceeded t h e t a b l e d c h 1 -s q u a re v a lu e f o r df = k-1 a t t h e 556 le v el* t h e n u ll h y p o th e s is — t h a t t h e sam ples came from a p o p u la tio n w ith t h e same median— was re je c te d * and t h e a l t e r n a t e — t h a t th e samples were from p o p u la tio n s w ith unequal medians— was a c c e p te d . The median t e s t c o n tin g e n cy t a b l e quas1-exper1 mental design was s e t up a s f o llo w s : A d m in is tra to rs X Union Y Total Above median a b k Not above median c d 1 m n N T otal 64 The t e s t o f s i g n i f i c a n c e (.05 l e v e l ) u s in g ch1 s q u a re was as f o l 1ows: „2 N X (ad - be) - N/22 Ik) (m) m (n) Data from each o f t h e t h r e e rounds o f th e Delphi q u e s t i o n n a i r e w ere a n aly zed f o r s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between groups by u sin g t h e SPSS median t e s t program a t t h e Michigan S t a t e U n iv e rs ity Computer C enter. Because o f t h e c o n tr iv e d c o l l e c t i v e - b a r g a i n i n g s i t u a ­ t i o n b u i l t I n to t h e design# 1 t was o f I n t e r e s t t o compare d a ta from each o f t h e t h r e e rounds f o r t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s . I f t h e median t e s t on t h e t h i r d round I n d ic a te d s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i ­ c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e groups# a fo llo w - u p a n a l y s i s was conducted t o d e te rm in e t h e n a tu r e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s . T his In f o rm a tio n was o b ta in e d by u s in g a c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s e t up t o e x h i b i t s t a t i s t i c a l a s s o c i a t i o n between group and p r e d ic te d t i m e I n t e r v a l o f o ccu rren ce. (S ee F i g u r e 3 .) In a d d itio n # d a ta from t h e c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n s w ere used t o d e te rm in e t h e p e rc e n ta g e o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s who were above o r below t h e median. These d a ta w ere a l s o used t o compute t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le ra n g e f o r each of t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s and 30 developm ents. 65 B efore 1980 Group 19801984 19851989 19901994 19951999 Beyond 2000 Never Row T o tal Adm1n1stra to rs Union Column Total 100 F ig u re 3 . — SPSS c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n program. D e sirab ility In Round 2 , each re sp o n d en t was re q u e s te d t o check t h e d e s i r a ­ b i l i t y o f s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents o c c u r rin g . The re s p o n se s w ere t a b u l a t e d f o r each of t h e re sp o n d e n t groups (a d m in is­ t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s ) f o r com parison purposes* and a d e s i r a ­ b i l i t y s c o r e was o b ta in e d . The s c o r e was a r r i v e d a t by a s s ig n in g each re sp o n se a v a lu e r e p r e s e n t i n g I t s d e s i r a b i l i t y : D e sira b ility Highly D e s ir a b le Medium D e s ir a b le Low D es1rable Neutral Low U n d e sira b le Medium U n d e sira b le Highly U n d e s ira b le S c a le F a c to r 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 66 An av erage s c o r e f o r each resp o n d en t group and f o r t h e co m p osite group was c a l c u l a t e d by summing d e s i r a b i l i t y s c o r e s f o r a f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ent and d iv id in g by t h e number o f resp on ses. F in ally # t h e a v erag e s c o r e s were a s s ig n e d a d e s i r a b i l i t y le v e l u sing t h e c u t p o i n t s shown 1n t h e fo llo w in g diagram: 6 Med1urn Des1 r a b le 7 Highly Desl r a b le 6 .5 5 .5 3 Low U n d e slra b le 4 5 Low Des1 li­ a b le N eutral 4 .5 3 .5 2 Medium Undesl r a b le 2 .5 1 Highly U n d e slra b le 1.5 0 .5 A d e s c r i p t i v e com parison was th e n made o f t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y le v e l f o r each group and t h e com posite group. ■flnflflnteaiJ-Qnal .Factors In Round 3# p a r t i c i p a n t s were asked t o I d e n t i f y t h e o rg a n iz a ­ t i o n s t h a t would be (1) m ost s u p p o r tiv e o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t develop­ ment In q u e s t i o n and (2) most opposed t o t h e o c c u rre n c e o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ent. The o r g a n i z a t i o n s o f I n t e r e s t were: — lo c a l boards o f e d u c a tio n — s t a t e board o f e d u c a tio n — lo c a l e d u c a tio n a s s o c i a t i o n s — MEA (Michigan E ducation A s s o c ia tio n ) — NEA (N ational E ducation A s s o c ia tio n ) — a d m l n l s t r a t o r a s s o c la t1 o n s — l e g is la ti v e a ctio n ( s ta te o r fe d e ra l) 67 A c o m p o site t o t a l o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s ' and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s ' re s p o n se s f o r each developm ent was ta b u l a t e d . The o r g a n iz a ti o n t h a t re c e iv e d t h e m ost p lu s e s (+) was I d e n t i f i e d a s t h e group "most 1n fa v o r o f" t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ent o c c u rrin g . The o r g a n iz a ti o n r e c e i v ­ in g t h e most m inuses (-) was I d e n t i f i e d as t h e group "most opposed to " t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t development. T his was done by c o n s t r u c t i n g a con­ f l i c t m a tr ix o f groups most s u p p o r tiv e o f and most opposed t o t h e developm ents. Summary The purpose of t h e Delphi methodology used 1n t h i s stud y was t o g a th e r d a ta t o f o r e c a s t f r i n g e b e n e f i t t r e n d s and r e l a t e d f r i n g e bene­ f i t developm ents f o r M ichigan's K-12 p u b lic school te a c h e r s and t o d e te rm in e 1f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s f o r e c a s t e d t h e same ti m e I n t e r v a l o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ' o c cu rren c e . Of a d d itio n a l I n t e r e s t was t h e re s p o n d e n ts ' p e r c e p tio n s o f t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents and* f i n a l l y * what p r o f e s s i o n a l o r p o l i t i c a l group(s) would s u p p o r t o r oppose t h e i r oc cu rren c e . R e s u lts o f t h e d a ta a n a l y s i s f o r each re s e a rc h q u e s ti o n a r e r e p o rte d In C hapter IV. 68 F o o tn o te s — C h apter I I I ^ F re d e ric k R. C y p ert and W a lte r L. Gant* "The Delphi T echnique: A Case Study*w Ph1 D e lta Kappan (J a n u ary 1971): 272-73. 2 N. P. Uhl* Encouraging Convergence jaf Opinion* Th rough i h e JJse S i ±hfi Delphi Technique I n ± h s P ro c e ss S ii I d e n t i f y i n g a n I n s t i t u t i o n1? Goals (Durham* N.C.: E d u c a tio n a l T e s tin g Service* S o u th e a s te rn O ffice* 1971). ^ R o b e rt C. Judd* "Delphi Method: C om puterized 'O ra c le ' A c c e le r a te s Consensus F o rm a tio n ," C o lle g e and U n iv e r s ity B u siness (September 1970): 3 0 -3 4 . ^R ich ard Weatherman and Karen Swenson* "Delphi Technique*" 1n F u tu rism I n Education M eth o do lo gies, ed. Stephen P. Hencley and James R. Y ates (Berkeley* C a l i f : McCutcheon P u b lis h in g Corp.* 1974)* pp. 9 7 -1 1 4 . 5 Employee B e n e f i t s — 1977 (Washington* D.C.: Commerce o f t h e U nited S t a t e s o f America, 1977). Chamber o f 6J a n e t T. Spence* John W. Cotton* Benton J . Underwood* and Carl P. Duncan* E lem entary S t a t i s t i c s * 3 rd ed. (Englewood C H f f s , N.J.: P r e n tl c e - H a ll* 1976), p. 234. CHAPTER IV ANALYSIS OF DATA T h is c h a p te r p r e s e n t s t h e f in d i n g s as th e y r e l a t e t o t h e re s e a rc h q u e s ti o n s upon which t h e stu d y 1s based. s t a t i s t i c a l and n o n s t a t l s t l c a l e le m e n ts . f o u r m ajo r s e c t i o n s : The d a ta have both The c h a p t e r 1s d iv id e d I n to t h e f i r s t s e c t i o n p r e s e n t s s t a t i s t i c a l Inform a­ t i o n r e l a t i n g t o s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s , t h e second t o r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents, t h e t h i r d t o d e s i r a b i l i t y o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents, and t h e f o u r t h t o o r g a n iz a ti o n a l u n i t s opposing o r sup­ p o r ti n g f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. N o n s t a t l s t l c a l d a ta c o m p rise s u g g e s tio n s and r a t i o n a l e s from t h e s e l e c t e d groups o f p a n e l i s t s . These comments w ere grouped f o r each Item and grouped f u r t h e r t o r e f l e c t p a t t e r n s o f r a t i o n a l e s . Because t h e s tu d y d id n o t have a randomly s e l e c t e d p o p u la tio n , I n f e r e n t i a l s t a t i s t i c s w ere c o n s id e re d I n a p p r o p r i a te . T h e re fo re , a n a ly s e s were based on d e s c r i p t i v e s t a t i s t i c s such a s median s c o r e s , s e m 1 -1 n te rq u a rt1 1 e rang es, and w e ig h tin g f a c t o r s . I t should be r e c a l l e d t h a t a m a jo r purpose o f t h e s tu d y was t o f o r e c a s t (1) what s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e e x pected t o become a p a r t o f M ichigan's t e a c h e r b e n e f i t packages 1n t h e f o r e s e e a b l e f u t u r e and (2) what f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents w i l l have a m ajo r I n f lu e n c e on 69 70 te a c h e rs' frin g e b e n e fits. A second m ajor purpose was t o a n a ly z e t h e re s p o n se s o f t h e two groups o f p a n e li s ts * a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d ir e c to r s * t o I d e n t i f y a r e a s 1n which they agreed o r d is a g r e e d 1n t h e i r fo re c a sts. The f in d i n g s a r e o rg a n iz e d I n to fo u r s e c tio n s * 1n which t h e fo llo w in g r e s e a r c h q u e s ti o n s a r e answered: Research Q uestion 1: What f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e expected t o o ccu r 1n t h e f u t u r e ? T hat 1s, 1n what e s ti m a te d tim e I n t e r v a l s w i l l spe­ c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t s be l i k e l y t o occur as p a r t o f t h e economic package o f M ichigan's K-12 p u b lic school te a c h e r s ? Of a d d i t i o n a l I n t e r e s t was d e te rm in in g w hether t h e tw o groups o f p a n e l i s t s were from p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median. Research Q uestion 2 : What lo c al* s ta t e * and n a tio n a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents a r e ex pected t o occu r 1n t h e f u t u r e ? Spe­ c i f i c a l l y , 1n what e s t i m a t e d tim e I n t e r v a l s a r e s p e c i f i c develop­ ments l i k e l y t o occur? Again* d e te rm in in g w hether t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s could be c o n s id e re d a s p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median was o f I n t e r e s t . R esearch Q u estion 3 : Are t h e r e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e l e c t e d a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and MEA u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s w ith re g a rd t o t h e d e s i r a ­ b i l i t y o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents o c c u rrin g ? Research Q uestion 4 : What o r g a n iz a ti o n a l u n i t s a r e m ost l i k e l y t o oppose o r s u p p o r t t h e o c c u rre n c e o f s p e c i f i c f r i n g e b e n e f i t d e v e l­ opments? F r in g e B e n e f it s Research Q uestion 1: What f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e e xp ected t o o c cu r 1n t h e fu tu re * and a r e t h e tw o groups o f p a n e l i s t s from p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median? F o r ty - f o u r f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ere I d e n t i f i e d through a review of l i t e r a t u r e , In c lu d in g c u r r e n t school d i s t r i c t m a s te r agreements* and from p e r c e p tio n s o f t h e s e l e c t e d p a n e l i s t s . These f r i n g e b e n e f i t s were p e rc e iv e d as t h e most l i k e l y ones t o ap p ea r 1n t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages o f M ichigan's p u b l i c school te a c h e r s . Using t r a d i t i o n a l 71 Delphi procedures* t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ere f o r e c a s t e d I n to a tim e I n te r v a l when re sp o n d en ts th o u g h t th e y were most l i k e l y t o occur. Data from t h e t h i r d round w ere used t o make t h e f o r e c a s t s . Topical Groupings o f F rin g e B e n e f it s An I n i t i a l s te p 1n t h i s stu d y was t o o rg a n iz e t h e f o r e c a s t s o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s I n t o t h e decades o f t h e 1980s* 1990s* beyond t h e y e a r 2000* and n e v er. A m ajor problem 1n d e a lin g w ith la r g e q u a n t i t i e s o f data* such as t h i s stu dy employed* 1s o rg a n iz in g t h e f in d i n g s 1n an e f f i c i e n t and meaningful manner. To a s s i s t 1n t h i s o rg a n iz a tio n * t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s were re o rg a n iz e d I n t o f o u r t o p i c a l g rou ps: 1. H e a lth - R e la te d F rin g e B e n e f i t s —B e n e f i t s t h a t a r e s p e c i f i c a l l y r e l a t e d t o t h e h e a l t h and well being o f t h e t e a c h e r and members o f h i s / h e r Immediate fa m ily . 2. Economic F rin g e B e n e f i t s — B e n e f it s t h a t r e s u l t In a d d itio n a l com pensation and a r e n o t h e a l t h r e l a t e d . 3. F a m ily -R e la te d a n d /o r P e rso n a l F rin g e B e n e f i t s — B e n e f it s t h a t may p ro v id e a d d i t i o n a l com pensation f o r members o f t h e t e a c h ­ e r ' s f a m ily o r b e n e f i t s t h a t a f f e c t t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e t e a c h e r ' s nonwork en viron m en t. 4. P r o f e s s io n a l B e n e f i t s —B e n e f i t s t h a t may p ro v id e o p p o rtu n i­ t i e s f o r a t e a c h e r ' s p r o f e s s i o n a l growth o r personal needs. C l a s s i f y i n g t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s I n t o t h e s e t o p i c a l groupings pro­ v ided a manageable s e t o f c a t e g o r i e s I n to which t o summarize f in d i n g s . T a b le s 4* 5* and 6 sum m arize t h e p a n e l i s t s ' f o r e c a s t s of f r i n g e b e n efits. The d a ta a r e p re s e n te d f o r each Item u s in g t h e median tim e I n te r v a l o f I t s o c cu rren c e f o r 50% o f t h e school t e a c h e r s 1n Michigan. F inally * f o r each b e n e f i t p resented* t h e tim e I n t e r v a l exp ected and 72 Tab le k . — F r i n g e b e n e f i t s in t h e 1980s. B e n e fit Area 1tem No. Fringe B e n e fit Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 1980-84 H e a lth -R e la te d Benefi t s k Dental in su ra n ce 5 V isio n in su ra n ce 9 H e alth in su ra n ce w ith p re sc rip tio n rid e r 12 17 18 Economic B e n e fits Fam ily-R elated and Personal B e n e fits Key: C C C U nlim ited s ic k leave accum ulation N S h o rt-te rm d i s a b i l i t y i nsurance C Long-term d i s a b i l i t y i nsu rance C 20 Travel a c c id e n t in su ran ce N k2 Sick leav e bank N 2k R etirem ent in c e n t iv e o f one y e a r ' s s a l a r y N 1 Term l i f e in su ran ce N 2 A c cid e n ta l d e a th and d i s ­ memberment ( ad&d) C Dependent l i f e in su ran ce o f $1,000 minimum C 16 S h o r t-te rm paid leaves C 23 Two p e rso n al h o lid a y s per year N 29 Paid p erso n al le av e days w ith o u t reason given N 28 P r o fe s s io n a l Benefi t s 1985-89 C = consensus N » no consensus 73 T a b l e 5«— F r i n g e b e n e f i t s B e n e fit Area 1tern No. in t h e 1990s. Frin ge B e n e fit Median Time In te r v a l . o f Acceptance 1990-94 H e alth -R e la te d Benefi t s 6 14 19 22 Economic B e n e fits 3 11 1995-99 Paid h e arin g c a r e N C o n tin u a tio n o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t coverage f o r r e t i re e s N School-d i s t r i c t - f i nanced p h y sica l exam every two y e a rs N A d d itio n a l medical o p tio n s to co v er i n - h o s p i t a l b e n efits, e tc . N Paid o v ertim e f o r hours beyond c o n tr a c te d school day C o s t - o f - l i v i n g a llo w ­ ances N N 13 Full pay f o r unused s i c k le av e a t r e tir e m e n t N 25 R etirem ent in c e n t iv e plan N 30 Longevity pay o f 1% per y e a r beyond B.A. to p s t e p N T a x - s h e lte r e d a n n u ity plan N 32 41 43 Option to r e c e iv e money in lie u of frin g e b e n efit C R etirem ent pay o f a m in i­ mum o f $100 p e r y e a r o f serv ice N 74 Table 5 . ” -Continued. B e n e fit Area 1tem No. F ring e B e n e fit Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 1990-94 Fam ily-R elated and Personal B e n e fits 10 26 P r o fe s s io n a l B e n e fits 7 34 35 40 44 Key: C = consensus N ■ no consensus S u rv iv o r income i n s u r ­ ance P rep a id le g a l plan N N Full t u i t i o n re im b u rse ­ ment Person al l i a b i l i t y in s u ra n c e G uaranteed p r o f e s s i o n a l le a v e w ith expenses p aid Paid c o u n se lin g s e r v i c e s f o r la i d - o f f te a c h e r s Board pays f o r p ro p e rty damage when on 1eg i t i mate b u s in e s s 1995-99 N N N N N 75 T a b l e 6 . — F r i n g e b e n e f i t s in t h e y e a r s 2000+ and n e v e r . B e n e fit Area H e alth -R e la te d B e n e fits Economic B e n e fits F am ily-R elated and Personal B e n e fits P r o f e s s io n a l B e n e fits Key: 1tem No. 27 8 21 F rin g e B e n e fit Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 2000+ Never Cancer in su ra n c e C Teacher e f f e c t i v e n e s s (m e rit) pay C V acation time du rin g school y e ar C 33 Auto in su ra n ce N 37 F ring e b e n e f i t and s a l a r y c o n tin u a tio n N 38 Home in su ran ce C 39 Home mortgage in s u r ­ ance C S a b b a tic a l le a v e w ith f u l l pay e v ery seven y e a rs N 31 Membership fe e s o f $100 p er y e a r f o r nonunion e d u c a tio n a l a s s o c i a t i o n s N 36 Lease c a r s f o r te a c h e r t r a v e l between b u ild in g s 15 C = consensus N = no consensus C 76 w hether o r n o t t h e p a n e l i s t s reached consensus on t h e Item o f I n t e r e s t 1s I n d ic a te d w ith a C f o r consensus o r an N f o r no consensus. Consen­ su s means t h a t 50% o r more o f t h e p a n e l i s t s agreed on t h e tim e I n te r v a l o f o c c u rre n c e f o r a s p e c i f i c Item. T a b le s 4* 5* and 6 showed t h e f o r e c a s t s o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ith in t h e decades o f t h e i r p ro b a b le o c cu rren c e . A n a ly sis o f t h e s e f o r e c a s t s p ro v id e s I n s i g h t I n t o t h e m ajor b e n e f i t a r e a s f o r t h e decades of In te re st. T a b le 7 shows t h e breakdown o f b e n e f i t s by t o p i c a l g ro u pin gs and t h e decade o f t h e i r occu rren ce. T a b le 7 . — O ccurrence o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s by t o p i c a l grouping and decade o f o c c u rre n c e (N = 4 4 ) . B e n e f i t Area H e alth r e l a t e d Economic Family r e l a t e d / p e r s o n a l P r o f e s s io n a l T otal 1980s 1990s Beyond 2000 and Never 8 1 3 3 4 8 2 5 1 1 5 3 15 19 10 As shown 1n T a b le 7* h e a l t h - r e l a t e d b e n e f i t s a r e expected t o r e c e i v e t h e most a t t e n t i o n 1n t h e 1980s. T ab le 4 showed t h a t t h e s e b e n e f i t s a r e d e n ta l and v i s i o n Insurance* h e a lt h In s u ra n c e w ith a p r e s c r i p t i o n rid e r* s h o r t - and lo n g -te rm d i s a b i l i t y * and t r a v e l a c c i ­ d e n t In s u ra n c e . Also* u n l i m i t e d s i c k le a v e a c c u m u la tio n and s ic k le a v e banks a r e h e a l t h - r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t s t h a t re s p o n d e n ts e x p e c t In t h e 1980s. 77 According t o t h e panel 1 s t s , t h e 1990s w i l l s e e a s h i f t t o economic b e n e f i t s . Table 7 I n d ic a te d t h a t 8 o f t h e 19 b e n e f i t s f o r e ­ c a s te d f o r t h i s decade a r e economic b e n e f i t s . C ost-of-11v1ng a llo w ­ ances* t h e o p tio n t o r e c e i v e money 1n H e u o f f r i n g e b e n e f its * and r e t i r e m e n t o r se v e ra n c e pay o f a minimum o f $100 p e r y e a r o f s e r v i c e a r e ex pected d u rin g t h e f i r s t h a l f o f t h i s decade (see Table 5). The second h a l f o f t h e 1990s w i l l s e e f i v e a d d itio n a l economic b e n e f i t s o ccur 1n Michigan t e a c h e r s ' f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages (Table 5). These a r e paid overtime* f u l l pay f o r unused s i c k le a v e a t re tire m e n t* e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t p la n s , lo n g e v ity pay o f "\% per y e a r beyond t h e to p s a l a r y s te p , and t a x - s h e l t e r e d a n n u ity p la n s. Table 7 a l s o showed t h a t re sp o n d en ts th o u g h t f a m i l y - r e l a t e d / p erso n al and p r o f e s s i o n a l b e n e f i t s m igh t r e c e i v e a t t e n t i o n beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and never. From T ab le 6 1 t can be seen t h a t a u to Insurance* f r i n g e b e n e f i t and s a l a r y c o n t i n u a t i o n a f t e r t h e d eath o f a t e a c h e r , s a b b a t i c a l le a v e w ith f u l l pay* and p aid membership f e e s a r e p o s s i b i l i ­ t i e s o f such b e n e f i t s . t o appear. Four re m a in in g b e n e f i t s were f o r e c a s te d n ever These f a m l l y - r e l a t e d / p e r s o n a l and p r o f e s s i o n a l b e n e f i t s were v a c a tio n tim e d urin g school year* home and home m ortgage I n s u r ­ ance* and l e a s e c a r s f o r t e a c h e r s ' t r a v e l between b u ild in g s . O verall* one may conclu d e t h a t th o s e b e n e f i t s f o r e c a s t e d t o o ccu r 1n t h e n e a r f u t u r e may have a h ig h e r p r i o r i t y th a n th o s e f o r e c a s te d t o o c cu r a t l a t e r tim e I n t e r v a l s . T his I n d i c a t e s t h a t h e a l t h - r e l a t e d b e n e f i t s may be p e rc e iv e d a s t h e a r e a o f most Im m ediate 78 I n t e r e s t # fo llo w e d by economic b e n e f its # p r o f e s s i o n a l frin g e s # and f i n a l l y fa m lly -relate d /p e rso n al b e n e f its . In a d d itio n # from T ab les 4# 5# and 6# some I n s i g h t I n to t h e tim e I n te r v a l o f o c cu rren c e may be gained from an a n a l y s i s o f t h e p a t t e r n s o f consensus. I f 50% o r more o f t h e p a n e l i s t s agreed on t h e tim e I n te r v a l o f o c c u rre n c e f o r a b e n e f i t Item# co nsen su s was deemed t o have oc cu rred . From t h e s e t a b l e s a summary o f consensus can be made. T able 8 shows t h e breakdown o f consensus by t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t median tim e I n t e r v a l s o f a c c e p ta n c e . Tab le 8 . — Consensus o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s by median tim e I n te r v a l o f a c c e p ta n c e (N = 4 4 ) . Median Time In te rv a l 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000+ Never Consensus I / T o t a l 3/3 5/12 1/10 0 /9 0/4 6/6 P e r c e n t Consensus 100% 42% 10% 0% 0% 100% As seen 1n T ab le 8# consensus was reached on 15 (34%) o f t h e 44 frin g e b e n efits. F u r th e r a n a l y s i s shows t h a t t h e p a n e l i s t s reached consensus on 100% o f t h e b e n e f i t s expected t o oc cu r d u rin g t h e 1980-84 ti m e I n t e r v a l and 42% f o r t h e 1985-89 I n t e r v a l . O verall# t h e p a n e l i s t s reached consensus on 8 o f 15 b e n e f i t s f o r e c a s te d f o r t h e decade o f t h e 1980s. These b e n e f i t s were den tal# v ision * health * s h o rt-te rm * and lo n g -te rm d i s a b i l i t y Insurance* a c c id e n ta l d eath and dismemberment Insurance* and s h o r t- te r m p a id le a v e s . 79 For t h e decade o f t h e 1990s and beyond t h e y e a r 2000* consensus was reached on only 1 o u t o f 23 b e n e f i t s . T h is b e n e f i t was t h e o p tio n t o r e c e i v e money 1n H e u o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . F i n a l l y , s i x b e n e f i t s w ere f o r e c a s t e d 1n t h e tim e I n t e r v a l o f "never." The p a n e l i s t s reached c on sen su s on a l l s i x Item s. The b e n e f i t s t h a t were exp ec te d n e v er t o o ccu r 1n t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages o f M ichigan's p u b l i c school te a c h e r s w ere c a n c e r In su ra n ce , t e a c h e r e f f e c t i v e n e s s ( m e r it ) pay, p a id v a c a tio n tim e d u rin g t h e school y e a r , home In s u ra n c e , home m ortgage In s u ra n c e , and l e a s e c a r s f o r t e a c h e r t r a v e l between b u ild in g s (see T ab le 6). I t 1s I n t e r e s t i n g t h a t alth o u g h t h e p a n e l i s t s co n cu rred t h a t t e a c h e r e f f e c t i v e n e s s o r m e r i t pay 1s n o t l i k e l y t o o c cu r, s e v e ra l n a tio n a l s t u d i e s have r e c e n t l y been a d v o c a tin g m e r i t pay. O v e r a l l, t h e f in d i n g s I n d ic a te d t h a t con sensu s 1s most p ro b a b le f o r th o s e b e n e f i t s t h a t a r e H k e l y t o occur 1n t h e Im m ediate f u t u r e and, a t t h e o t h e r end o f t h e ti m e sp ec tru m , 1n t h e "never" I n t e r v a l . T h is c o n c lu s io n may le a d t o t h e assu m p tio n t h a t t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e 1980s have t h e h i g h e s t p r o b a b i l i t y o f o c c u r rin g 1n t e a c h e r s ' b e n e f i t packages, t h o s e 1n t h e 1990s a l e s s e r p r o b a b i l i t y , and th o s e f o r e c a s te d f o r beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and never t h e l e a s t l i k e l i h o o d o f o c c u r re n c e . Summary o f F o re c a ste d Med1an-T1m e -In te rv a l Changes The f o r e c a s t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t median tim e I n t e r v a l s a r e r e p o r te d In Appendix F. Using t h e d a ta from Appendix F, t h e f r i n g e 80 b e n e f i t s w ere grouped a c c o rd in g t o t h e number o f f o r e c a s t e d m edlant1 m e -1 n te rv a l changes t h a t o c c u rre d between Round 1 and Round 3 o f t h i s study. Using consensus where 50% o r more o f t h e p a n e l i s t s were w ith in one tim e In te rv a l* t h e median ti m e I n t e r v a l o f t h e t h i r d round was analyzed t o d e te rm in e 1 f c o n sen su s had been reached between t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r p a n e l i s t s . T h is consensus o r convergence o f o p in io n s 1s a common o c c u rre n c e 1n a Delphi s tu d y . It sh o u ld be emphasized t h a t even I f con sensu s does n o t occur* t h e Delphi te c h n iq u e s e r v e s t h e p urp o se o f c r y s t a l l i z i n g t h e re a so n in g p ro c e ss t h a t le a d s t o t h e p o s i t i o n s t h a t w ere ta k e n and th u s h e lp s t o c l a r i f y t h e I s s u e s even 1n t h e absence o f group consensus. T ab le 9 shows a summary o f t h e m ed1 an-t1 m e-Interv al changes between Rounds 1 and 3 . Tab le 9 . — Summary o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s : between Rounds 1 and 3 . m ed1an-t1m e-1nterval changes Median Time I n t e r v a l Item Number Decreased one * cn " I n d i c a t e s co n sen su s. * 1, 3 , 6 , 7 , 10, 11, 3 3 , 3 4 , 43, 44 CM I n c re a s e d one * 2* , 4 " , 5 " , 8 " , 9 " , 12, 15, 16*, 17*, 18*, 19, 21*, 2 2 , 2 3 , 25 , 2 6 , 27 * , 2 8 * , 2 9 , 3 0 , 3 1 , 3 2 , 3 5 , 36*, 3 7 , 38*, 39*, 4 0 , 41*, 42 O CM No change 81 As shown 1n T ab le 9, 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s o r ap p ro x im a te ly 68% of th e f o r e c a s t e d median tim e I n t e r v a l s did n o t change between Rounds 1 and 3 o f t h e Delphi s tu d y . Ten (23%) o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ere f o r e c a s t e d t o o ccu r a t a l a t e r tim e I n t e r v a l th a n I n i t i a l l y f o r e c a s t e d 1n Round 1. The re m a in in g f o u r (9%) f r i n g e b e n e f i t s were f o r e c a s t e d t o o ccu r a t an e a r l i e r tim e I n t e r v a l th a n I n i t i a l l y f o r e c a s t e d 1n Round 1. These f o u r were: (1) f u l l pay f o r unused s i c k le a v e a t r e t i r e m e n t , (2) c o n t i n u a t i o n o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t coverage f o r r e t i r e e s , (3) t r a v e l a c c id e n t In su ra n c e p ro vid ed f o r j o b - r e l a t e d t r a v e l , and (4) r e t i r e m e n t I n c e n tiv e p la n s f o r e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t . Three o f t h e f o u r Ite m s whose f o r e c a s t e d ti m e I n t e r v a l s d e crea se d o ver t h e t h r e e rounds w ere r e l a t e d to r e t i r e e b e n e fits. T h is f i n d i n g may I n d i c a t e In c re a s e d a t t e n t i o n t o r e t i r e m e n t b e n e f i t s 1n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . The p a n e l i s t s re a ch e d consensus on 15 o f t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s whose tim e I n t e r v a l s d id n o t change between Rounds 1 and 3. In te re st­ in g ly , o f t h e 14 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s whose median tim e I n t e r v a l s In c re a s e d o r d e c re a se d , none reached consensus. I t a p p e a rs t h a t t h e p a n e l i s t s were n o t as l i k e l y t o a g re e on a f o r e c a s te d ti m e I n t e r v a l when 1 t s h i f t e d o v e r t h e c o u rs e o f t h e Delphi stud y. Summary o f S e m 1 -I n te r q u a r t1 le Changes Again u sin g t h e d a ta from Appendix F, t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range changes between Rounds 1 and 3 were d eterm in ed . a r e summarized 1n T a b le 10. These changes 82 T able 10.— Summary o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s : s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range changes between Rounds 1 and 3 . S e m 1 -I n te r q u a r t1 le Range Time I n t e r v a l s Item Number No change 1, 2*, 5 * , 8*, 9*, 11, 18*, 22, 23, 2 4, 26, 27*, 2 9 , 3 2 , 36*, 38*, 39*, 4 0 , 43 , 44 Narrowed one tim e I n te r v a l 3 , 6 , 7 , 10, 12, 13, 14, 19, 20 21*, 25, 28*, 30, 31, 33, 34, 3 5 , 3 7 , 42 Narrowed two tim e I n t e r v a l s 16*, 17* In c re a s e d one tim e I n te r v a l 4* S h if te d range 15, 41* * In d 1 c a te s co n sen su s. The s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range f o r 20 (45%) o f t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s rem ained unchanged th ro u g h o u t t h e t h r e e rounds. N ineteen (43%) de crea se d t h e i r s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le range one tim e In te rv a l* and two (5%) de crea se d t h e i r ra n g e s two tim e I n t e r v a l s . h a l f o f t h e b e n e f i t s d e c re a se d t h e i r ti m e I n t e r v a l s . Thus* a lm o s t oneT h is I s a common p a t t e r n 1n a Delphi stu d y and I n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p a n e l i s t s w ere l e s s p o la r iz e d as t h e stu d y p ro g re s s e d through t h e t h r e e rounds. The two b e n e f i t s t h a t narrowed t h e i r range by two tim e I n t e r v a l s were paid le a v e s o f s h o r t e r d u r a tio n th a n s a b b a t i c a l le a v e s and s h o r t - t e r m d i s a b i l i t y In su ra n ce . consensus. On both o f t h e s e Items* p a n e l i s t s reached 83 Of t h e t h r e e rem ain in g b e n e fits* one In c re a s e d I t s tim e I n t e r v a l range by one, w hereas two Item s s h i f t e d t h e i r range t o a l a t e r tim e span. Dental In su ra n c e s h i f t e d from a range o f 1980-89 1n Round 1 t o 1980-94 1n Round 3. S a b b a tic a l le a v e s w ith f u l l pay went from 1985-2000+ t o 1990-never, and t h e o p tio n t o r e c e iv e money In l i e u o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s s h i f t e d from 1985-94 t o 1990-99. For t h e s e t h r e e Item s, con sen sus was reached on a l l b u t s a b b a tic a l le a v e s . Summary o f Median T e s t An a d d itio n a l p o i n t o f I n t e r e s t 1n f o r e c a s t i n g f r i n g e b e n e f i t s was t o d e te rm in e 1f t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s were from p o p u la tio n s w ith th e same median. The median t e s t , using a t w o - t a i l e d c h 1 -s q u a re v a lu e w ith .05 a s t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l , was used t o d e te rm in e 1f t h e r e w ere s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two sub p o p u la tio n s . Complete d a ta f o r t h e median t e s t s f o r t h e t h r e e rounds a r e p re s e n te d In Appendix D. A summary o f t h e median t e s t f o r t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s o f I n t e r e s t 1n t h i s stu dy 1s shown 1n Table 11. T a b le 1 1 .— Summary o f median t e s t f o r t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s . P o p u la tio n Comparisons Round 1 Round 2 No. o f b e n e f i t s D 1 fferen ces 2 ( 4.5%) 0 ( No. o f b e n e f i t s No d 1 ffe re n c e 42 (95.556) Note: 056) 44 (10056) R efer t o Appendix D f o r com plete d a ta . Round 3 0 ( 056) 44 (10056) 84 In T able 11, t h e tw o p o p u la tio n s o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r p a n e l i s t s a r e compared over t h e t h r e e Delphi rounds. On 2 o f t h e 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s 1n Round 1, t h e r e was a s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i ­ c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s . These b e n e f i t s were (1) lo n g e v ity pay o f a t l e a s t 1% o f B.A. base f o r each y e a r beyond t h e to p s t e p o f a n e g o tia te d s a l a r y sc h e d u le and (2) an e a r l y r e t i r e ­ ment In c e n tiv e plan whereby a t e a c h e r may be compensated a minimum o f one y e a r 's s a l a r y f o r e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t a t age 55. However, on a l l 44 f r i n g e b e n e f i t s In Rounds 2 and 3, t h e p a n e l i s t s w ere from p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median. Thus, although t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e rv d i r e c t o r s had d i f f e r e n t f o r e c a s t e d median t i m e I n t e r v a l s on tw o Item s d u rin g t h e f i r s t round, 1n t h e second and t h i r d rounds t h e r e were no s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e tw o groups. R e la te d F r i n ge B en e fit Developments Research Q uestion 2 : What l o c a l , s t a t e , and f e d e r a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents a r e e x p ec te d t o occur 1n t h e f u t u r e , and a r e t h e two groups o f p a n e l i s t s from p o p u la tio n s w ith t h e same median? A ttem pting t o f o r e c a s t f u t u r e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s r e q u i r e s an u n d e rs ta n d in g o f some f a c t o r s t h a t may I n f lu e n c e t h e i r occu rren ce. Although 1 t may be Im p o s s ib le t o c o n s id e r every p o t e n t i a l developm ent, 30 Im p o rta n t r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents w ere I d e n t i f i e d th ro u g h a review o f r e l e v a n t l i t e r a t u r e and from t h e p e r c e p tio n s o f t h e sele c ted p a n e lists . These f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents w ere analyzed by u sin g t r a d i t i o n a l Delphi s t a t i s t i c s f o r feedback. These developm ents a r e p e rc e iv e d a s t r e n d s t h a t may have an Im p o r ta n t I n f lu e n c e on 85 Michigan t e a c h e r s ' f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages 1n t h e 1980s# 1990s# and beyond t h e y e a r 2000. Topical Groupings o f F rin g e B e n e f it Developments The 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents were o rg a n iz ed I n t o t h r e e g e n e ra l t o p i c a l groupings# based on t h e le v e l a t which t h e developm ent may I n i t i a l l y occur. These groupings w ere (1) lo c a l a n d /o r reg ion al# (2) s t a t e # and (3) n a tio n a l developm ents. c la im t h a t t h i s 1 1 s t 1s e x h a u s tiv e . The r e s e a r c h e r does n o t Undoubtedly# new developm ents w i l l o c cu r t h a t may have a m ajor e f f e c t on f u t u r e f r i n g e b e n e f i t t r e n d s . T ab les 12# 13# and 14 summarize t h e p a n e l i s t s ' f o r e c a s t s o f t h e 30 developm ents I n t o t h e i r e x p ec te d median tim e I n t e r v a l s of o ccu r­ ren ce. Each developm ent 1s p re s e n te d 1n I t s r e s p e c t i v e tim e In te rv a l# along w ith w hether o r n o t p a n e l i s t s reached consensus (50% o r more o f t h e p a n e l i s t s e s t i m a t i n g t h e same tim e I n t e r v a l ) on t h a t Item. T ab les 12# 13# and 14 show t h e f o r e c a s t s o f t h e 30 r e l a t e d developm ents I n t o t h e i r p ro b a b le decades o f oc cu rren c e . A n a ly sis o f t h e s e f o r e c a s t s p ro v id e s a breakdown o f t h e developm ents I n t o t o p i c a l g ro u p in g s by t h e i r ex p ec te d t i m e I n t e r v a l o f oc cu rren c e . shows t h i s summary. T able 15 86 T a b l e 1 2 . — F r i n g e b e n e f i t dev el o pm en ts in t h e 1980s. Development Area 1tern No. F ring e B e n e fit Development Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 1980-84 Local and Regional Developments k 11 23 25 S ta te Developments 26 N ational Developments Key: C - consensus N = no consensus Local E.A .s j o i n re g io n a l b a rg a in in g u n i t s N Local d i s t r i c t pays 100% o f F.B. c o s t s —no con­ t r i b u t o r y c o s t s by employees In c re a s e in i n - s e r v i c e o f com puters, T .V ., and new te a c h in g te c h n o lo ­ g ie s 1985-89 N N Boards in a reg io n u n i t e to review n e g o tia te d lo c a l agreem ents N T e a c h e rs ' re tir e m e n t s y s ­ tem w i l l have a b u i l t - i n c o s t-o f-liv in g fa c to r N None 87 T a b l e 1 3- — F r i n g e b e n e f i t d ev el o pm en ts in t h e 1990s. Development Area 1tern No. F ring e B e n e fit Development Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 1990-9** Local and Reg i o n a 1 Developments 8 9 12 30 S ta te Developments 1 5 13 2k Nat ional Developments School d i s t r i c t s s e l f in s u re some f r i n g e b en efits N N School d i s t r i c t s w ill p e r ­ mit te a c h e r s t o tr a d e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s f o r cash N H ealth m aintenance o rg a n ­ i z a t i o n s r e p la c e p r e s e n t h e a l t h in su ra n c e p la n s N T e a c h e rs ' f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ill av erag e 50% o f payrol 1 N Local boards o f e d u c a tio n u n i t e in to a m u l t i p l e d i s t r i c t b a rg a in in g u n i t N Teachers r e t i r e a f t e r 30 y e a r s w ith f u l l f r i n g e b e n e f i t coverage School personnel a d m in is ­ t r a t o r s w ill in c r e a s e by 50% N N 2 Median fa m ily income w i l l double C 3 Median t e a c h e r s ' s a l a r y doubles C 22 27 Key: I n d iv i d u a lly t a i l o r e d (c a fe te ria - s ty le ) frin g e b e n e f i t packages f o r te a c h e r s C = consensus N - no consensus 1995-99 Federal funding w ill in c r e a s e to 15% o f t o t a l ta x d o l l a r s re c e iv e d by lo c a l d i s t r i c t s IRS w ill ta x f r i n g e bene­ fits N C 88 Ta b l e 1 4 . — F r i n g e b e n e f i t de vel opm ent s beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and n e v e r . Development Area 1tern No. F ring e B e n e fit Development Median Time In te rv a l o f Acceptance 2000+ Local and Regional Developments 10 18 19 20 21 S ta te Developments 6 14 15 16 17 28 29 Nat ional Developments Key: 7 C = consensus N = no consensus Local school d i s t r i c t s u n i t e to in s u re some frin g e b e n efits N T e a c h e rs ' s a l a r i e s and c o s t s f o r f r i n g e bene­ f i t s t i e d to CPI C Performance c o n t r a c t i n g w ith te a c h e rs Average c l a s s s i z e le s s than 20 s tu d e n ts C C School d i s t r i c t s w ill pay bonuses t o h i r e te a c h e r c a n d id a te s Teachers form a s t a t e ­ wide b a rg a in in g u n i t C N Schools w i l l o p e r a te le s s than 180 days Michigan sch o o ls o p e r a te on a fo u r -d a y week and main­ t a i n a 180-day school y e a r Never C N Teachers work only when they have s p e c i f i c te a c h ­ ing assig nm en ts C T e a c h e rs ' p ro b a tio n a ry p e rio d sh o rte n e d t o one y e ar C P u b lic sch o o ls leave Social S e c u r ity system and i n s t i ­ t u t e an a l t e r n a t e program C Michigan goes to a y e a r round school C Teachers form a fe d e ra l b a rg a in in g u n i t C 89 Table 1 5 .- - T o p ic a l grouping o f r e l a t e d f r i n g e b e n e f i t developments by e x p ected tim e I n t e r v a l of o c c u rre n c e (N = 3 0 ) . Development Area Local a n d /o r re g io n a l developments S t a t e developments N atio n al developments T o t a ls 1980s 1990 s Beyond 2000 and Never 4 1 0 4 4 4 5 7 1 5 12 13 T able 15 I n d i c a t e s t h a t f i v e developm ents w ere f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e decade o f t h e 1980s. Again* 1 f th o s e developm ents f o r e c a s t e d t o o c cu r 1n t h e n e a r f u t u r e have a h ig h e r p r i o r i t y * 1 t may be assumed t h a t lo c a l and re g io n a l developm ents w i l l r e c e iv e t h e most a t t e n t i o n 1n t h i s decade. The e x p ec te d developm ents a r e t h a t lo c a l e d u c a tio n a s s o c i a ­ t i o n s w i l l j o i n re g io n a l b a rg a in in g u n its * t h a t 100% o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t c o s t s w i l l be paid* t h a t t h e r e w i l l be an I n c r e a s e 1n I n - s e r v i c e o r p r o f e s s i o n a l development* and t h a t boards o f e d u c a tio n w i l l u n i t e t o review n e g o tia te d lo c a l a g reem en ts (se e T a b le 12). Only one s t a t e developm ent and no n a tio n a l developm ent was f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e 1980s. T h is s t a t e developm ent w i l l be a b u i l t - i n c o s t- o f - l1 v 1 n g f a c t o r f o r t h e t e a c h e r s ' r e t i r e m e n t system . According t o t h e respondents* t h e 1990s (se e Table 13) w i l l w itn e s s t h e o ccu r­ re n c e o f 12 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developments* which a r e evenly d iv id e d among t h e t h r e e l e v e l s 1n which th e y a r e e x pected t o occur. T h is r e s e a r c h e r c o n s id e r s some of t h e s e developm ents t o be very Im p o rtan t. At t h e 90 lo c a l and re g io n a l l e v e l s a r e c a f e t e r l a - s t y l e f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages, s e l f - 1 n s u r a n c e , and t h e grow th o f h e a lt h m aintenance o r g a n iz a ti o n s . At t h e s t a t e l e v e l , t e a c h e r s ’ f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a r e expected t o a v erag e 50% of p ay ro ll. N atio n al developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h i s decade In c lu d e d oublin g median t e a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s (1n 1980 d o l l a r s ) and IRS t a x a t i o n of frin g e b e n efits. Developments f o r e c a s t e d f o r beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and nev er (s e e T ab le 14) may be c o n s id e re d very u n lik e ly 1n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . Note­ w orthy among t h e s e developm ents a t t h e lo c a l and re g io n a l l e v e l s a r e t h e rem ote p o s s i b i l i t i e s o f t e a c h e r s a l a r i e s and f r i n g e b e n e f i t c o s ts t i e d t o a consumer p r i c e Index and o f p erform ance c o n t r a c t i n g . A s t a t e w i d e t e a c h e r s ' b a rg a in in g u n i t , s c h o o ls o p e r a tin g l e s s th a n 180 days a y e a r , and a y e a r-ro u n d school s c h e d u le w ere I d e n t i f i e d s t a t e developm ents. At t h e n a tio n a l l e v e l , t e a c h e r s , t e a c h e r s form ing a f e d e r a l b a rg a in in g u n i t was f o r e c a s t e d a s n ev er o c c u rrin g . T a b le s 12, 13, and 14 p ro v id e a p a t t e r n o f consensus f o r t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. T ab le 16 shows t h e breakdown o f consen­ s u s by t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents' median tim e I n t e r v a l s of a c c e p ta n c e . As shown 1n T a b le 16, t h e Delphi p a n e l i s t s did n o t reach consensus on any o f t h e f i v e developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e decade o f t h e 1980s. T h is was a d e v i a t i o n from t h e i r f o r e c a s t s f o r t h e f r in g e b e n e f i t s ex p ec te d t o o c cu r 1n t h e 1980s, where th e y reached consensus on 15 (53%) b e n e f i t s . I n t e r e s t i n g l y , t h e p a n e l i s t s did n o t reach consensus on t h e c u r r e n t t r e n d s o f lo c a l e d u c a tio n a s s o c i a t i o n s j o i n i n g 91 re g io n a l b a rg a in in g u n i t s and o f lo c a l d i s t r i c t s paying 100% o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t c o s t s w ith no c o n t r i b u t o r y c o s t s by t e a c h e r s . T able 1 6 .— Consensus o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents by median tim e I n t e r v a l s o f a c c e p ta n c e (N = 3 0 ) . Median Time In te rv a l Consensus # /T o ta l 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000+ Never 0/0 0/5 3 /7 0/5 2 /5 8/8 40% 100% P e r c e n t Consensus 0% 0% 42.8% 0% P a n e l i s t s e x p ec te d t h e decade o f t h e 1990s t o s e e t h e o c c u rre n c e o f 12 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. Consensus was n o t reached on any o f t h e l o c a l / r e g i o n a l o r s t a t e developm ents. C a fe te rla - s t y l e f r i n g e b e n e f i t packages came t h e c l o s e s t t o consensus w ith 43.8% o f t h e p a n e l i s t s s u p p o r tin g t h e 1990-94 e x pected tim e I n t e r v a l o f o c c u rre n c e (s e e Appendix 6 ) . Four n a tio n a l developm ents w ere f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e 1990s. The p a n e l i s t s reached co nsensus on a l l t h r e e (100%) developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e 1990-94 median ti m e I n t e r v a l . The t h r e e developm ents exp ected t o o ccu r 1n 1990-94 w ere t h a t median f a m ily Income w ill double (In 1980 d o lla rs )* t h a t median t e a c h e r s a l a r i e s w i l l double* and t h a t t h e IRS w ill ta x frin g e b e n e fits. The o t h e r n a tio n a l developm ent f o r e c a s te d f o r 1995-99—t h a t f e d e r a l fun din g w i l l reach 15% o f t o t a l t a x d o l l a r s f o r lo c a l d i s t r i c t s — d id n o t o b ta in co n sen su s. 92 G r e a te r consensus o c c u rre d on t h e developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r beyond t h e y e a r 2000 and never. Two (40%) o f t h e f i v e developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r beyond t h e y e a r 2000 reached consensus. These develop­ ments w ere t h a t t e a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s and c o s t s f o r f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w i l l be t i e d t o a consumer p r i c e Index and t h a t an av erag e c l a s s s i z e w i l l be l e s s th a n 20 s t u d e n t s ; both were c a te g o r iz e d a s lo c a l o r re g io n a l developm ents. No s t a t e developm ents f o r e c a s t e d f o r beyond t h e y e a r 2000 reached consensus (se e T ab le 14). F in a lly * a l l e i g h t developm ents (100%) f o r e c a s te d nev er t o o c cu r reached consensus. The tw o lo c a l o r r e g io n a l developm ents 1n t h e "never" I n t e r v a l w ere perfo rm an ce c o n t r a c t i n g and school d i s t r i c t s paying bonuses t o h i r e c e r t a i n t e a c h e r c a n d id a te s . F iv e s t a t e develop­ ments re a c h in g con sen sus 1n t h e "never" I n t e r v a l o f a c c e p ta n c e were s c h o o ls o p e r a tin g l e s s th a n 180 days* t e a c h e r s working o n ly when th e y have s p e c i f i c te a c h in g assignm ents* t e a c h e r s ' p ro b a tio n a ry p e rio d s h o rte n e d t o one year* p u b lic s c h o o ls le a v i n g t h e p r e s e n t S o d a ! S e c u r ity system* and y e a r-ro u n d sc h o o ls . T eachers' p ro b a tio n a ry p e rio d s h o rte n e d t o one y e a r was t h e s t a t e developm ent w ith t h e h i g h e s t con­ s e n s u s (68%) t h a t 1 t would n e v er occur. The s i n g l e n a tio n a l develop­ ment f o r e c a s t e d f o r t h e "never" i n t e r v a l was t e a c h e r s fo rm in g a f e d e r a l b a rg a in in g u n i t . S tro n g co nsensu s was reached on t h i s Item* w ith 75% o f t h e p a n e l i s t s s e l e c t i n g t h e "never" I n t e r v a l (see Appendix G). 93 Summary o f Med1an-T1meI n t e r v a l Changes The 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents 1n Rounds 1, 2 , and 3 were a n alyzed t o d e te rm in e changes 1n t h e p r o je c te d median tim e I n t e r v a l s of o c cu rren c e . The median ti m e I n te r v a l of t h e t h i r d round was used t o d e te rm in e 1f consensus e x i s t e d . I f 50% o f t h e re s p o n d e n ts w ere w ith in one tim e I n t e r v a l In Round 3, consensus was achieved. t h e s e d a ta 1s p re s e n te d 1n Appendix G. A summary of The median tim e I n t e r v a l s f o r t h e Ite m s were grouped a c c o rd in g t o t h e number o f t1 m e -1 n te rv a l changes t h a t o c cu rred between Rounds 1 and 3. T able 17 c o n ta in s a summary of t h e s e changes. T a b le 1 7 .— Summary o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents: med1an-t1meI n t e r v a l changes between Rounds 1 and 3 . Median Time I n t e r v a l Item Number No change 2 *, 3 " , 5 , 7 " , 9 , 11, 14, 15, 17", 18", 19", 2 0 " , 2 1 " , 24, 2 6, 2 7 ", 2 8 " , 29" In c re a s e d one 1, 4 , 6 , 8 , 10, 12, 13, 16", 2 2 , 2 3 , 25 , 30 " I n d i c a t e s c o n se n su s. As shown 1n T able 17, t h e median tim e I n t e r v a l s o f 18 (60%) o f t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents did n o t change th ro u g h o u t t h e t h r e e rounds o f t h e Delphi stud y. Twelve (40%) o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents were f o r e c a s t e d t o occur a t a l a t e r tim e I n t e r v a l th a n 94 I n i t i a l l y f o r e c a s te d 1n Round 1. The p a n e l i s t s reached consensus on 11 o f t h e 18 Item s t h a t showed no change. F inally » consensus was reached on only 1 o f t h e 12 developm ents t h a t In c re a s e d by one ti m e I n t e r v a l . Michigan t e a c h e r s having a sh o rte n e d workday# p e r m i t t i n g them t o work only when they have s p e c i f i c te a c h in g assignm ents# changed from beyond t h e y e a r 2000 1n Round 1 t o never 1n Rounds 2 and 3. The f i n d i n g s I n d i c a t e t h a t consensus was more l i k e l y f o r th o s e Item s whose median tim e I n t e r v a l s did n o t change (6156)# a s opposed t o th o s e whose tim e I n t e r v a l s did change (86). Summary o f SemiI n t e r q u a r t i l e Changes In a d d i t i o n t o changes 1n t h e median ti m e I n t e r v a l o v e r t h e t h r e e rounds o f t h i s Delphi study# changes 1n t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le ran ges o f t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents w ere a l s o examined. This s t a t i s t i c p ro v id e s a m easure o f t h e a c tu a l tim e p a ra m e te rs o f t h e m id d le 50* o f t h e p a n e l i s t s ' f o r e c a s t s f o r t h e tim e I n t e r v a l s o f In te re st. A summary o f t h e s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le changes f o r t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents 1s shown 1n T ab le 18. By exam ining t h e d a ta 1n T ab le 18 and Appendix G# 1 t can be seen t h a t t h e s e m i - I n t e r q u a r t i l e range f o r 18 (60%) o f t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents rem ained unchanged th ro u g h o u t t h e t h r e e rounds o f t h e stud y. The s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le ran ges o f f i v e (17%) Ite m s d ecreased two I n t e r v a l s . Median f a m ily Income (1n 1980 d o l l a r s ) d o u b ling by 1990-94# school d i s t r i c t s paying a l l o f t h e t e a c h e r s ' c o n t r i b u t o r y costs# school d i s t r i c t s o p e r a tin g l e s s th a n 180 school days# f e d e r a l 95 funding re a c h in g 15% o f t h e t o t a l t a x d o l l a r s f o r Michigan schools* and h e a l t h m aintenance o r g a n i z a t i o n s r e p la c in g p r e s e n t m edical and h o s p i­ t a l i z a t i o n p la n s w ere t h e f i v e Item s In cluded 1n t h i s group. reach ed consensus on tw o o f t h e s e f i v e developm ents. P a n e lists The re sp o n d en ts f o r e c a s t e d t h a t t h e median fa m ily Income would double by 1990-94 and t h a t Michigan s c h o o ls would never o p e r a te l e s s th a n 180 days. l a t t e r developm ent had a range from 1995-never. The F in a lly * none o f t h e 30 developm ents widened I t s range th ro u g h o u t t h e c o u rse o f t h e t h r e e rounds. T his I s c o n s i s t e n t w ith o t h e r Delphi s t u d i e s because t h e te c h n iq u e 1s desig ned t o seek consensus o r a convergence o f o p in io n s o r judgm ents. T a b le 1 8 .— Summary o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents: s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le tim e I n t e r v a l changes between Rounds 1 and 3 . S e m l-In te rq u artH e Time I n t e r v a l s Item Number No change 4 , 5 , 8* 9 , 10* 12, 13, 17*, 19*, 20*, 21*, 2 3 , 2 4 , 2 5 , 26, 27*, 28*, 29* Decreased rang e one tim e I n te r v a l 1, 3 *, 6 , 7*, 15, 16*, 18 D ecreased range two tim e I n t e r v a l s 2 *, 11, 14*, 2 2, 30 * In d 1 c a te s c o n se n su s. Consensus among t h e p a n e l i s t s was more l i k e l y on th o s e developm ents whose range de crea se d one tim e I n t e r v a l (57%). For th o s e 96 Item s w ith no change* 23% reached consensus. For t h e f i v e developm ents d e c r e a s in g two tim e I n t e r v a l s * two (40%) reached co nsensus. F u r th e r a n a l y s i s o f t h e d a ta 1n Appendix G shows t h a t f o r th e 12 developm ents whose s e m 1 - 1 n te r q u a r t1 le rang es decreased* 10 changed t h e i r expected tim e I n t e r v a l s o f o c cu rren c e t o a l a t e r ti m e span. w ere f o r e c a s t e d t o o ccu r In an e a r l i e r tim e span. Two These were d i s t r i c t s paying f u l l f r i n g e b e n e f i t c o s t s and f r i n g e b e n e f i t c o s t s t i e d t o a consumer p r i c e Index. Thus* f o r th o s e developm ents whose s em l- 1 n t e r q u a r t 1 l e ranges decreased* I t appears more l i k e l y t h a t t h e Delphi re s p o n d e n ts would f o r e c a s t them t o occur a t a l a t e r d a te. Summary.-Q.f Median. J e s t The median tim e I n te r v a l and co m p o site s e m i - I n t e r q u a r t i l e range were used t o r e p o r t s t a t i s t i c s t o t h e p a n e l i s t s and t o sum m arize t h e i r d a ta from each o f t h e t h r e e rounds o f t h i s study. In a d d itio n * t o m easure t h e degree o f convergence o r v a r ia n c e o f re s p o n se s between t h e tw o groups o f respondents* t h e median t e s t was used w ith a t w o - t a i l e d ch 1 -s q u a re v a lu e w ith .05 a s t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l . Complete d a ta f o r t h e median t e s t s f o r t h e t h r e e rounds a r e In cluded 1n Appendix E. Using t h e d a ta from Appendix E* a summary o f t h e median t e s t p o p u la tio n com parisons f o r t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents o f I n t e r e s t 1n t h i s stu d y was fo rm u la te d . Table 19. T his summary 1s shown 1n 97 T able 19.— Summary o f median t e s t p o p u la tio n com parisons f o r f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents (N = 3 0 ) . P o p u la tio n Comparisons No. o f developments D iff e re n c e s No. o f developments No d i f f e r e n c e N ote: Round 1 Round 2 0 ( 0%) 1 ( 3.3%) 30 (100%) 29 (96.7%) Round 3 0 ( 0%) 30 (100%) R efer t o Appendix E f o r com plete d a ta . In Table 19* t h e tw o p o p u la tio n s o f a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s a r e compared f o r t h e t h r e e rounds o f t h e Delphi stud y. Using a t w o - t a i l e d c h 1 -s q u a re v a lu e w ith .05 a s t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e le v el* t h e r e was no s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e between t h e two p o p u la tio n s o f p a n e l i s t s d u rin g Round 1. In Round 2* t h e two p o p u la tio n s d i f f e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y on one developm ent. te a c h e rs ' sa la rie s* T h is developm ent was a f o r e c a s t of In c lu d in g c o s t s f o r f r i n g e b e n e fits * being t i e d t o a v a l i d Index o f economic growth such a s a consumer p r i c e Index. In Round 3 t h e r e were no s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e tw o p o p u la tio n s o f p a n e l i s t s f o r any o f t h e 30 developm ents. Thus* a lth ou gh t h e a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s e s t i m a t e d d i f f e r e n t median tim e I n t e r v a l s f o r one developm ent 1n Round 2* 1n t h e f i r s t and t h i r d rounds t h e r e were no s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e two groups. 98 D e s i r a b i l i t y o f F r i n g e B e n e f i t Developments R esearch Q uestion 3 ; Are t h e r e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e s e l e c t e d a d m i n i s t r a t o r s and u n ls e r v d i r e c t o r s w ith re g a rd t o t h e d e s i r a b i l ­ i t y o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents o c c u rrin g ? Data from Round 2 o f t h i s Delphi s tu d y were used t o d e te rm in e t h e p a n e l i s t s ' p e r c e p tio n s o f t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. The union and a d m i n i s t r a t o r p a n e l i s t s responded t o each o f t h e 30 Ite m s u s in g a s e v e n - p o in t H k e r t s c a l e t h a t ranged from h ig h ly u n d e s ir a b le t o h ig h ly d e s i r a b l e . An av erage s c o r e was computed f o r each o f t h e groups by m u ltip l y in g t h e t o t a l o f each re sp o n se c a te g o ry by t h e s c a l e f a c t o r (1-7) and d iv id in g by t h e number o f re s p o n se s. T h is q u o t i e n t e s t a b l i s h e d a d e s i r a b i l i t y le v e l f o r each o f t h e tw o groups. The same method o f c a l c u l a t i o n was used t o d e te rm in e a c o m p o site response* u s in g t h e t o t a l re s p o n se s f o r a l l p a n e l i s t s . T ab le 20 shows a summary o f t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y re sp o n se s f o r t h e 30 f r i n g e b e n e f i t developm ents. Using t h e d a ta In T able 20* a d e s i r a b i l i t y com parison was made. F ig u re 5 shows how t h e tw o groups were compared* u sin g t h e d i f f e r e n c e s 1n t h e i r a v erag e re s p o n se on t h e s e v e n - p o in t H k e r t s c a l e . L l k e r t S c a le I n t e r v a l s (D if f e r e n c e ) 0 1-2 3 -4 5 -6 Comparison No D isagreem ent Minor D isagreem ent G re a t D1sagreement Very G re at D isagreem ent F ig u re 5 . — D e s i r a b i l i t y comparison ( a d m i n i s t r a t o r s v e rs u s union members). Table 2 0 . — Fringe b e n e f i t developments: d e s i r a b i l i t y and o r g a n i z a t i o n a l f a c t o r s . D e s ir a b ili ty-Undesi r a b i 1i ty Fringe B en efit Development 1. 2. 3. The U.S. Chamber o f Commerce re p o rts th a t fr in g e b e n e f its fo r a l l employees reached 36.7% o f payroll in 1977* In your op inio n, in what time in te rv a l w ill f r in g e b e n e f its f o r Michi­ gan p u b lic school te ac h e rs average 50% o f p a y ro l1? >* • •—L. jC— ui in — 0) xo • E • 3 L. ■—•— •— “o S O -JO 3 2 -0 a> O c z J 3 C U In what y ear w ill th e median family income (in 1980 d o lla r s ) reach tw ice i t s p re sen t amount? When w ill th e median te a c h e rs ' s a la ry reach tw ice i t s p re sen t amount? 4. By what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e local E.A.s belong to a regional bargaining u n it? 5. By what y ear w ill 50% o r more o f th e Michigan p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s ' boards o f education u n ite in to a m u l t i p l e - d i s t r i c t bargaining u n it? X 3 >— in X 0) oro —c xo in —“O ro u U (0 OO — 100 a) *o 4-» L. flj (0 < +■> O UJ l/} CD • < _J llJ X + + + + A C C E— 3 in — a) “O"O a> c O rganizational Factors A A < UJ z • c o —0 E u> "T3 I/) << •C i/i o •— •— 014-1 a) u Tab le 2 0 . —Continued. Des i rab i 1i ty-Undes i rab i 1i ty Fringe B en efit Development >* • ■— L. £ — O) CO — 0) X O 6. By what year w ill te a c h e rs belong to one sta te w id e bargaining u n it th a t w ill determine statew id e te a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s and f r in g e bene­ f i t s (with p o s s ib le c o s t - o f - l i v i n g indexes fo r d i f f e r e n t a re a s o f th e sta te )? E ' 3 U •—•— ~o 10 T JT J 0) c X 3 A U C U A C A C U > -•— in JC 0) OTO — c X 3 O rganizational Factors (O —“O (0 1O (0 O O —ICQ • a) “o 4-1 L. ro <0 4-> o «/> co • c u < UJ —1 < Hi X < UJ — o E to *D <0 o - 1 to 3 to -h —. pt o (D UJ “n -t 3 (Q to Des i r a b i 1 i ty-llndes i rab H 1ty Tab le 2 0 . —Continued. Des i rab i 1i ty-Undesi rab i 1i ty Fringe B en efit Development - >- • u _c— o > tn — 0) 3 :0 E o) a> x o • • 3 U •— •— “u in •— 5 in o a> J O <0 L. 3 0) z 14. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan school o p e ra te le s s than 180 in s tru c tio n a l days? 15. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan schools o p e ra te on a four-day week and s t i l l m aintain a minimum 180-day school year? 16. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan te ac h e rs have a s h o r t ­ ened workday p e rm ittin g te a c h ­ e r s to work only when they have s p e c i f i c teachin g assignments? 17. In what time in te rv a l w ill th e nontenure t e a c h e r s 1 proba­ tio n a ry p eriod be reduced to one year? 18. In what time in te rv a l w ill te a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s , including c o s ts f o r f r in g e b e n e f i t s , be ti e d to a v a lid index o f economic growth such as a consumer p r ic e index (CPI)? •— in < d 3 “o Oc J O O rganizational Factors • L. E— 3 in ->— in -C a) c n -o in — 10 u O (0 4J U <0 (0 Z3J z 3 J (/) CO Vc • •- c O0 CO o) t j -MO < UJ —1 < UJ 2! < UJ z • • c O •_ O F in T3 in < < • c in 0 •_ •_ CT) 4J 0) O -1 < C U A U A C o ro Tabl e 2 0 . —Continued. Des i rab i 1i ty-Undes i rab i 1i ty Fringe B enefit Development >• • E • t- 3 U -C»- •—|M D)(A TJ (A — o> 0 0 x o XO • L. 5 (A O 0 JO • u 0 u 4-» 3 0 Z L. E— (A 3 (A 0 — Q) 2 * 0 -o -o 0 c 0 C JO x=o •mm L. •— l/l 0) 3*0 O C -1 3 O rganizational Factors in — XI <0 1O (D o o —I CO 4>-0 •W L. (D ID 4J O * • e—U -C— — 0) x o 23. By what time in te rv a l w ill ins e r v ic e tr a i n i n g o f te ac h e rs become a n e c e s s ity because o f computers, T.V ., and new teaching techn olo gies? 2k. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e re be a 50% in c re ase in personnel a d m in is tra to rs whose primary r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w ill be to work w ith employee b e n e f its and o th e r re la te d personnel fu n c tio n s in th e p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s o f Michigan? 25. By what time in te rv a l w ill boards o f education in a region o r a re a u n ite to g e th e r to review n e g o tia te d local agreements f o r a c c e p ta b il ity ? 26. By what time in te rv a l Michigan Publ ic School Ret i rement System have c o s t - o f - l i v i n g f a c to r r e t i rement a 11owance? w ill the Employees' a bui 11- i n in the • L. •— E • D L. •— “O (S) 0 a) x o 2 0 in a> _1 0 pM (0 u •u u •— in U 3 0) z A C U A C A U C u E— 3 in — 0) “0 * 0 O c J O 0) c X O O r g a n iz a ti o n a l F a c t o rs L. in i— 0 ) x a> DTD —c x o —"O (Q u U (0 0 0 J CO 0 )0 4-> L. 05 (0 ■MO 3 rt O m < rt (0 3 -h 03 T1 n 3 £n P a r t I I — FRINGE BENEFITS— P a r t I I o f t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e l a t e s t o some a c tu a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t s t h a t have appeared o r may p o s s ib ly a p p e a r In t h e f u t u r e . By u s i n g an "x" o r " , ” I n d i c a t e t h e tim e I n t e r v a l d u rin g which, in your judgm ent, t h e f r i n g e bene­ f i t w ill be r e c e iv e d by 50% o r more o f t h e Michigan p u b lic school t e a c h e r s . The column REMARKS 1n P a r t s I and I I may be used JLf you wish t o make any comments t h a t may be r e l e v a n t t o t h e tim e I n t e r v a l you s e l e c t e d . I t would be a p p r e c ia te d I f you co uld co m p le te t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e by A p ril 30, 1980, and r e t u r n 1 t 1n t h e stam ped, s e l f - a d d r e s s e d envelope e n clo se d . Round I I o f t h i s Delphi p r o j e c t i o n q u e s t i o n n a i r e w i l l In c lu d e t h e t o t a l group t a b u l a t i o n s from Round I and any r e l e v a n t remarks co n cern in g t h e Item s. F i n a l l y , because o f t h e n a tu r e o f t h e developm ents and v a r i e t y o f f r i n g e b e n e f i t s p o s s i b l e , t h e f a c t o r s 1n t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e a r e l i s t e d In g en eral te rm s . Also, some o f t h e Item s may p r e s e n t l y be I l l e g a l a c c o rd in g t o p r e s e n t law s. The l a s t p o i n t t h a t needs t o be m entioned 1s t h a t t h e s e p r o j e c t i o n s should be made lo o k in g a t t h e e n t i r e s t a t e o f M1chlgan. 165 I f you have any q u e s ti o n s co n cern in g any a s p e c t of t h i s q u e s tio n n a ir e * p le a s e c o n t a c t me by phoning 616/754-3686 o f f i c e phone o r 616/754-8591 home phone. Again* I want t o thank you f o r p a r t i c i p a t i n g 1n t h i s p r o j e c t . A summary o f t h e f i n d i n g s w ill be made t o each p a r t i c i p a n t . Thanks I S in c e re ly , J e r r y L. Cushman 912 South S t r e e t G re e n v ille * Michigan 48838 166 J u n e 19# 1980 D ear D elphi C o lle a g u e : T his envelope c o n t a i n s Round I I o f t h e Delphi P r o j e c t i o n Q u e s tio n n a ire r e l a t i n g t o f r i n g e b e n e f i t s 1n M ichigan's p u b lic s c h o o ls . Because of some minor d e la y s , 1 t 1 s s l i g h t l y behind s c h e d u le as o r i g i n a l l y planned. As a s e l e c t e d e x p e r t 1n t h i s study# you may be I n t e r e s t e d t o know t h a t t h e Rand C o rp o ra tio n developed t h i s Delphi f o r e c a s t i n g te c h n iq u e . One o f t h e f e a t u r e s o f t h i s p ro c e d u re 1 s t h e use o f c o n t r o l l e d feedback t o t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s In a s e r i e s o f s u c c e s s iv e rounds. The Delphi method sum m arizes t h e re s p o n se s t o one round o f q u e s ti o n s and p ro v id e s t h i s In f o rm a tio n t o t h e su rvey p a r t i c i p a n t s w ith t h e n e x t round o f ques­ t i o n s . In t h i s way# t h e exp erts# w h ile rem ain in g anonymous# s t i l l communicate w ith each o t h e r 1n a l i m i t e d fa s h io n . Through t h i s ano­ nymity o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s # t h e Delphi method p r e v e n ts some members o f t h e panel from unduly o v e r r i d i n g o r swaying t h e o p in io n s o f o t h e r members# which o f te n o c c u rs In f a c e - t o - f a c e group s i t u a t i o n s . T h is 1s t h e re a so n you a r e g iv e n t h e feedback from t h e t o t a l group o f p a r t i c i p a n t s 1n Round I. Also# I have I n d ic a te d t h e re sp o n se you made a s a rem in der. T h is feedback may o r may n o t I n f lu e n c e your re s p o n se s t o Round I I . Round I I I sho uld be a v a i l a b l e som etim e In August. With t h i s f i n a l round# I w i l l In c lu d e a b r i e f q u e s t i o n n a i r e r e q u e s tin g In f o rm a tio n r e l a t i n g t o your p r o f e s s i o n a l background. These d a ta w i l l be used t o re c o g n iz e you and t h e o t h e r s p e c i a l l y s e l e c t e d e x p e r t s who have p a r t i c i p a t e d 1 n t h i s s tu d y . F in a lly # I want you t o know t h a t your p a r t i c i p a t i o n 1s g r e a t l y a p p r e c ia te d . I t I s n ' t a very easy jo b t o make f o r e c a s t s I n t o t h e f u t u r e w ith a l l o f t h e u n p r e d ic ta b l e f a c t o r s t h a t a r e p a r t of our e d u c a tio n a l system . However# 1 t 1s w ith y o u r h e lp and o th e r p r o f e s s i o n a l s l i k e y o u rs e lf# t h a t some I n s i g h t may be o b ta in e d t h a t w i l l e n a b le us t o b e t t e r cope w ith t h i s p e rio d of u n c e r t a i n t y and change. I hope you have an e n jo y a b le summer! Very t r u l y yours# J e r r y L. Cushman 912 South S t r e e t G re en v ille# MI 48838 O ffic e Phone: (616) 754-3686 Home Phone: (616) 754-8591 167 EDITED FEEDBACK FROM ROUND I PART I 2. I n f l a t i o n 1s a big f a c t o r . 3. Median I s going up because t h e r e te a c h e rs . 4. Is o la te d d i s t r i c t s o u ts ta te w ill n o t a c c e p t o r w ill withdraw from t h e re g io n a l u n i t s . Local re s o u r c e s d i f f e r * and bo ard s w ill re fu se to lo se Id e n tity . 5. T h a t’ s a f t e r th e y g e t w ise t h a t th e y would have a chance as a u n ite d f r o n t . 6 . a r e fe w e r and fe w er young The s t a t e c a n n o t respond q u ic k ly enough. Teachers o f urban a r e a s w ill n o t allow t h i s f o r some tim e . I n t e r n a t i o n a l ty p e s o f a g re e ­ ments f o r economics. Working c o n d itio n s * e t c . * s t i l l t o be done lo c a lly . 7. T eachers have t h i s t o some e x t e n t now. I don’ t t h i n k 1 t w ill be as I n c l u s i v e a s t h e s ta t e m e n t I n d i c a t e s . Never* a t l e a s t u n t i l they l e a r n what t o do f o r f e d e r a l employees. Too many problem s. 9. S e l f - I n s u r a n c e needs a t l e a s t a group o f 200 o r more t o s u s t a i n a program. Do 5056 o f t h e d i s t r i c t s have 200 o r more t e a c h e r s 1n them? Could d i s t r i c t s combine f o r s e l f - I n s u r a n c e ? This c u t s a l o t o f bucks and a s th e y add plans* th e y a r e l e a r n i n g t h i s . Some l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s a lre a d y a r e . 10. T h is would have t o be done by an o u t s i d e p a rty o r a g e n t. Risk I s t h e key. C o st us. 11. We a r e In a p o s tu r e o f expanding b e n e f i t s . th o s e as c o - p a ld f o r a w h ile . 12. T h is d e s tr o y s t h e Idea o f In s u ra n c e . In s u ra n c e s p re a d s t h e r i s k . I f o n ly people who use 1 t t a k e It* t h e c o s t would be p r o h i b i t i v e . IRS t a x a b i l i t y would be a problem. Option packages more l i k e l y . 13. B argain w ith l e g i s l a t u r e . The n e x t o n e - h a lf decade w ill s e e some re tre n c h m e n t eco n o m ica lly . 14. Never 1s a long tim e . However* I do n o t s e e a re d u c tio n a t t h i s tim e . P a r e n ts d o n 't t h i n k k id s a r e 1n school enough now. Can d o l l a r s f o r s a l a r i e s and f r i n g e s be j u s t i f i e d 1 f s h o r t e r school y e a r? G e n e ra lly nphase in " 168 Too many a g e n c ie s In v o lv e d . P a r t o f t h e Job 1s c u s t o d i a l . People a r e used t o t h i s . I t would be p o l i t i c a l l y un p o p u lar. Not 1f t h e p u b lic has a n y th in g t o say about I t . I s e e expansion* o p tio n a l o f f e r i n g s * a c c e l e r a t e d g r a d u a tio n . 15. T h is 1s p o s s i b l e 1n l i g h t of t h e energy problems. 16. Only 1f t h e jo b m arket g e t s even more d r a s t i c . T eachers l i k e a d d i t i o n a l tim e because th e y g e t paid f o r 1 t. 17. I t may move t h i s way In n e x t 15-20 years* a g a in . Not f e a s i b l e by t h e way c o l l e g e s a r e t r a i n i n g t h e s e days. a r e lo b b y in g f o r more tim e . Boards 18. "Never” f o r com plete s a l a r i e s . A formula w i l l be used t o d eterm in e a segment o f t h e wages* a s 1 t 1s now. The c u r r e n t in d i c e s a r e n o t t r u e I n d i c a t o r s . Done by d i s t r i c t s t o n o t g r a n t s i z a b l e I n c r e a s e s . T each ers t o I n d i c a t e th e y a r e la g g in g behind. Need more s t a b i l i t y in t h e economy. 19. No way! H a lf t h e s t a f f would be fir e d * o t h e r h a l f to o busy compet­ in g t o do t h e i r j o b s . 20 . The s t r u c t u r e o f t e a c h in g would have t o change. To a s s u r e a l l In c r e a s e s and f r in g e s * c l a s s s i z e has t o be s a c r i f i c e d . 21. Teacher un io ns w i l l oppose t h i s . T h at push 1s on and has been f o r coaches e s p e c i a l l y . Supply and demand a r e o u t o f " s y n c ." 22. Federal programs a r e dropped by d i s t r i c t s when funds run o u t. T h is w i l l 11m1t f e d e r a l fu n d in g . Too much p r e s s u r e from o t h e r a r e a s o f governments f o r fu n d s. Cutbacks w i l l o ccur f e d e r a l l y . P o l i t i c a l l y w e've become more f o r c e f u l . 23. I s n ' t I t now? 2 4. I f o r e s e e a p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h i s o c c u r rin g a t t h e I n te r m e d ia te le v e l o r w ith s e v e r a l d i s t r i c t s h i r i n g someone. I t w o n 't be adm inis­ t r a t o r s who I n c r e a s e . Depending on s t u d e n t en ro llm en t* s t a f f i n g p a tte r n s * a n d /o r c o n s o l i d a t i o n s . T h is a r e a has grown more complex— a s c o s t s ris e * so does m o tiv a tio n t o seek some s a v in g s . 25. The o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e lo o s e b u t do e x i s t . 26. Too many groups have a v e s te d I n t e r e s t . 28. Perhaps some o f t h e l a r g e school system s. d ip . C u r r e n tly we can double 169 29. Depends on t h e energy crunch and number o f b u ild in g s t h a t have been c lo s e d . W111 sav e money. P a r e n ts have h i s t o r i c a l l y o b je c te d most. 30. I t w i l l become an I n t e g r a l p a r t b u t w i l l n o t r e p l a c e . They w ill c o - e x 1 s t. Unless th e y c le a n up t h e i r act* th e y may J u s t go o u t o f e x i s t e n c e . P r im a r ily In t h e l a r g e m e tr o p o lita n school system s. 170 EDITED FEEDBACK FROM ROUND I PART I I 1. T his I s a very In e x p e n siv e f r i n g e . 2. T his I s n o t a very c o s t l y f r i n g e . 6 . 7. 8 . 11. Our te a c h in g p o p u la tio n may n o t be o ld enough t o w a rra n t t h i s . Labor m arket w i l l have t o change. The union h as fo u g h t a g a i n s t t h i s f o r y e a r s . no e q u i t a b l e way t o do 1 t . There seems t o be Many forms now* bu t 1s 1 t COLA? No te a c h e r s 1n Michigan have a t r u e COLA. I t depends on o u r dom estic economy. Depends upon form ula. 13. AGO r u l i n g s a r e n o t en co u rag in g . 14. Some f r i n g e b e n e f i t s may be c o n tin u e d . assumes c o s t . 15. Not c u r r e n t s a b b a t i c a l . 17. Unnecessary w ith u n lim ite d s i c k days. 21 . Not u n le s s s t a t e T h is c o u ld happen 1 f we have y e a r-a ro u n d s c h o o ls . Communities would n o t allo w t h i s t o go th ro ug h u n le s s 1 2 -month school system . C ost problems alon g w ith c u r r e n t c a l e n d a r . 22. O u t- o f - d a t e coverage now. 24. This depends on 25. T h is depends onAGO r u l i n g s and c o u r t c a s e s 1n t h e near f u t u r e . Teach ers would no t s e e t h i s plan a s w o rthw h ile. 27. T h is ty p e o f In su ra n c e 1s a r 1 p - o f f . Any e x c e l l e n t medical plan w ill co v er 1 t. L i t t l e t r u s t 1n t h i s program. 33. In some form. 3 4. Maybe. 35 . Everyone j u s t about has t h i s 1n some form e x c e p t 1n t i n y d i s t r i c t s . c o u r t r u l i n g s 1n t h e n e a r f u t u r e . Reduced ra te s * e t c . 171 41 . T his would depend on how 1 t 1s packaged. 43. Hard t o say 1f t h e a r e a o f r e t i r e m e n t n e g o t i a t i o n s w i l l ta k e e x a c tly t h i s t u r n . T his 1s more r e a l i s t i c . Most have t h i s In s te a d o f a paid r e t i r e m e n t p la n . AGO o p in io n a problem. C ourt f i g h t now. 172 EDITED FEEDBACK ON FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS ROUND I I , PART I 1. P h i l o s o p h i c a l l y , unions have t o show money g a in s a l s o . I th in k government w ill s t a r t t o z e r o In on t a x - f r e e b e n e f i t s . When more f r i n g e s become t a x a b l e , t h e t r e n d w i l l c e a s e . I b e lie v e t h i s t r e n d may r e v e r s e 1n te rm s o f p e rc e n ta g e o f p a y r o l l . T eachers may a g ain o p t f o r B.F. as I n f l a t i o n re c e d e s o v e r s a l a r y because 1 t comes o f f to p and t h e r e 1 s no Income t a x . 2. There a r e b a la n c in g f a c t o r s . Companies move o u t. Probably wish­ f u l t h i n k i n g , b u t t h e v a lu e o f t h e d o l l a r I s a t s t a k e . I f I t ’ s I n f l a t i o n , so what. I may be o v e rly o p t i m i s t i c 1n s p i t e o f some e c o n o m ists ’ p r e d i c t i o n s . I s e e t h e I n f l a t i o n a r y s p i r a l coming t o a s c r e e c h in g h a l t . Depends upon f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o such an I n c r e a s e , I . e . , r a t e o f I n f l a t i o n , Improved p r o d u c t i v i t y . 3. T e a c h e rs ' s a l a r i e s w i l l n o t keep pace w ith I n f l a t i o n . I f I t ' s I n f l a t i o n , so what. Based on p a s t re c o rd , s a l a r i e s a r e n 't c lim b in g t h i s r a p i d l y . C on versely, as I n f l a t i o n I n c r e a s e s , boards g e t t i g h t e r ; s o does community. 4. T his c o n c e p t 1s lo s in g ground. T h is was t r u e 1n 1979 as well as 1980. There w ill be a c o n s o li d a tio n I n t o l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s who w ill remain j e a l o u s o f t h e i r I d e n t i t y . This 1s a new c o n c e p t...c h a n g e o c c u rs slo w ly . 5. There may n o t be a need t o do t h i s . Boards do n o t want t o g iv e up t h e i r lo c a l c o n t r o l . They (members) c a n ' t even a g re e among them­ s e l v e s . The tr e n d w i l l r e v e r s e when t h e d is a d v a n ta g e s a r e known. Local c o n tr o l w i l l win o u t 1n t h e end. Boards a r e a f r a i d t o do 1 t . 6 . The l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s w i l l n ev er a g re e t o t h i s . The tim e and e f f o r t o f 560 K-12 d i s t r i c t s 1n b a rg a in in g w ill f o r c e t h i s e a r l i e r th a n 1995. N e ith e r t h e union o r boards w i l l allow t h i s . I saw t h i s happen 1n New York s t a t e . They have s i n c e s p l i t . T his w ill mean s t a t e c o n tro l o f s c h o o ls ; lo c a l boards w o n 't allow 1 t . 7. 8 As soon as t h e f in a n c in g s h i f t s t o f e d e r a l money, t h e b a rg a in in g w ill a l s o — even 1f th e y a r e s ta t e w id e u n i t s . We le a r n a t t h e b a rg a in in g t a b l e n ever t o say " n e v e r ." Never t o me means Impos­ s i b l e . I d o n 't b e lie v e b a rg a in in g 1s a f e d e r a l a re n a . . I do n o t b e l i e v e t h a t d o l l a r s w ill be s p e n t l i k e t h i s . Equal coverage does n o t mean equal d o l l a r s . Proposal makes s e n s e . Use money on b a s i s o f n e e d l Will d e stro y t h e p r i n c i p l e o f In s u ra n c e , 173 which depends on chance. I s u s p e c t t h a t such an approach would e v e n tu a lly c au se b e n e f i t s t o be tax ed . Because o f f e a r o f lo s in g t a x ad v an ta g e s p lu s B o a r d 's "B1g B ro th e r" a t t i t u d e . O ptions packages 1n c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t s . The way o f t h e f u t u r e . 9. Some c o s t s a v in g s can r e s u l t . There a r e o v er 500 d i s t r i c t s 1n Michigan where t h e c o verage h a s l e s s th a n 250 t o t a l employees and going down. You c a n n o t s e l f - 1 n s u r e w ith t h e s e numbers. A poor Id e a f o r small d i s t r i c t s . OK f o r big on es. I s e e p i t f a l l s f o r s e l f - i n s u r a n c e . Could c a u s e I n f e r i o r programs t o m a t e r i a l i z e . P o t e n t i a l f o r c a t a s t r o p h i c c o s t 1s to o r is k y f o r school d i s t r i c t . Also* r e q u ir e d r e s e r v e would be to o g r e a t . 10. T h is c o uld prove t o be a s a v in g s t o school d i s t r i c t s depending on t h e e x p e rie n c e f a c t o r . Sounds l i k e an In s u ra n c e co-op* and I d o n 't s e e t h i s as p ro b a b le . 11. I f e e l t h e r e should alw ays be some employee c o n t r i b u t i o n ; o t h e r ­ w ise In c re a s e d c o s t s have no meaning f o r them. " A ll" 1s to o I n c l u s i v e . " A ll" o f " a l l " f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w i l l never happen. I s u s p e c t t h i s 1s t r u e now. T h is w ill n o t o ccu r u n t i l a f t e r te a c h ­ e r s have an a c c e p ta b le f r i n g e b e n e f i t package. MERC* a r b i t r a t i o n * c o u r t r u l i n g s en cou rage t h e employee t o pay a " l i t t l e " f o r c a r r i e r p u rp o s e s. 12. D e stro y s t r u e In s u ra n c e c o v e ra g e . T his goes a g a i n s t In su ra n ce p r i n c i p l e s — chance. T h is has pros and co n s. Too c o s t l y . P r o te c ­ t i o n I s more Im p o rta n t 1 n my e s ti m a ti o n th a n money In t h e po c k et. Runs a g a i n s t h i s t o r i c a l argum ent w ith Board and IRS— f r i n g e s a r e n 't ta x ab le s a la ry . 13. T h is w i l l h e lp t o enco u rage e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t . There w ill be a need f o r l e g i s l a t i o n t o do t h i s . MEA 1s s t r o n g 1n t h i s a r e a . H o pefully we have le a r n e d from o t h e r governmental u n i t s — la r g e c i t i e s —many b e n e f i t s d o n ' t make s e n s e — a l s o double d ip p in g . The r e t i r e m e n t system c o u l d n 't h an d le such a wide v a r i e t y o f c o v e ra g e s. Michigan s c h o o ls w ill n ev er be a b le t o a f f o r d I t . Perhaps I'm to o o p tim is tic * b u t I t h i n k t h e c u r r e n t t h r u s t 1 n r e t i r e m e n t I n c e n t i v e s w ill ground s w e ll. 14. R 1 g h t- to - s tr 1 k e l e g i s l a t i o n w i l l p e rm it t h i s . There a r e a l t e r n a ­ t i v e s . Perhaps we w i l l be f o r c e d t o e x p lo r e them. This w ill be an a r e a o f movement when money I s n ' t . W111 p rob ab ly happen soo ner th a n p r e d i c t e d w ith t r e n d t o fo u r-d a y week—m a in ta in h o u rs . Fourday week due t o energy c o s t s . 15. I f we go t o a fo u r-d ay week* I do n o t b e l i e v e t e a c h e r s w i l l work t h e a d d i t i o n a l weeks. T h is may be an answer f o r more I n - s e r v i c e a n d /o r management. Not u n le s s t h e p a r e n ts go on a fo u r-d a y week. T h is would mandate y e a r -ro u n d s c h o o l; I t J u s t I s n ' t going t o 174 happen. Some w ill do t h i s ; n o t a l l . Depends on f u e l / t y p e s o f w i n t e r s . Have been doing t h i s 1n New Mexico d i s t r i c t s and e l s e ­ where* s u c c e s s f u l l y . 16. Why not? I t I s done a t t h e c o l l e g e and u n i v e r s i t y l e v e l . T h is c o u ld be a p o l i t i c a l r e a l i t y . I f s c h o o ls a r e t o m a in ta in p u b lic support* t e a c h e r s need t o be Involved 1 n more th a n j u s t c l a s s e s . My answer was and 1s based on t e a c h e r s s e e k in g p a r t - t i m e o r sh ared classroom assig nm ents. 17. With p ro p e r e v a l u a t i o n , why should 1 t be so long? s t a f f must be Improved f o r t h i s t o happen. 18. As long a s t h e r e a r e u nio ns o r even a la b o r p a r ty t h e push w i l l be t o Improve. CPI 1s b e g inn ing t o l o s e I t s c r e d i b i l i t y ; b e s id e s t h i s Idea 1s n o t t o o r a t i o n a l f o r c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g . T h is j u s t w o n 't happen w ith a l l t e a c h e r s a s t h e q u e s tio n I n d i c a t e s . "V alid " 1s a key word. CPI 1s c u r r e n t c o n t r o l l i n g f a c t o r In n e g o t i a t i o n s . 19. T h is form o f m e r i t pay w ill be a r e a l i t y 1 f re s p o n se s c o n tin u e a s th e y have. P r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l become a n a tio n a l Is s u e a s demanded by a weakened economy. Over s e v e ra l c o l l e c t i v e dead b o d ie s . Damnable n o tio n ! 20. With d e c l i n i n g e n ro llm e n ts c l a s s s i z e s w i l l edge downward. With f e d e r a l f in a n c in g o f an a p p r e c ia b le amount. Too ex p en siv e f o r th is. E v a lu a tio n o f 2 1. With an I n c r e a s in g t e a c h e r s h o r ta g e t h i s w i l l be a r e a l i t y . A long s h o t . We may s e e a t e a c h e r s h o rta g e a g a in . C o n tr a c ts may change In t h i s regard* b u t commonplace? P ro b ab ly n o t. 2 2. T h is 1s d e v elop in g c l o u t and s t a t e s ' f i s c a l woes w ill h a s te n a r r i v a l o f t h i s . A f te r t h e 1984 p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n y e a r . I do n o t s e e an I n c r e a s e In f e d e r a l fu n d s . The new Department o f Edu­ c a t i o n w i l l t a k e money t o c r e a t e more o f f i c e s and p ro c e d u re s . The p o l i t i c a l s c e n e changes t o o q u ic k ly t o be a c c u r a t e . Although new Department o f E ducation w i l l push f o r more funds* th e y a r e v u ln e r­ a b l e f o r c u t s a s t o t a l s t u d e n t e n ro llm e n ts d e c l i n e . As long as n a tio n a l d e fe n se has t h e f i r s t p r i o r i t y * t h e p ro g r e s s w i l l be slow and m inim al. I t h i n k t r e n d w ill r e v e r s e 1n s p i t e o f o u r d e s i r e s . T h is w ill ta k e a long tim e . 23. I changed my mind. We need more o f t h i s . I t ' s a n e c e s s i t y now* b u t 1 t 1s n o t r e q u ir e d . Such a tim e i s a lr e a d y upon u s. I n s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g h as always been a n e c e s s i t y . I w ill r e v i s e my e s t i m a t e downward h e r e . 2 4. The personnel fu n c tio n w i l l be more and more Im p o rta n t. I b e l i e v e 50* 1s J u s t t o o high a p r o j e c t i o n . The growth w ill I n s te a d come 1n 175 c l e r i c a l r a te d employees. Fin an ces w i l l p r o h i b i t t h i s . I t I s n ' t going t o happen u n t i l t h e r e 1s a s i g n i f i c a n t exp ansion o f t h e F.B. package. Budget problems c au se a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c u t s . T his 1s a reaso n why d i s t r i c t s w ill n o t s e l f - 1 n s u r e . Runs a g a i n s t MESSA r e " c a r r i e r " q u e s ti o n . 2 5. T h is c o n c e p t 1s n o t b e in g a c c e p te d o r used s u c c e s s f u l l y now. Rep­ r e s e n t a t i v e s o f Boards a r e doing t h i s now. But "review " does n o t y e t mean having t h e r i g h t t o a c c e p t o r r e j e c t . As Boards f i g h t re g io n a l barg ain in g * th e y w i l l be fo rc e d o u t o f t h i s . Local autonomy. Boards d o n ' t o rg a n iz e t h a t e f f i c i e n t l y . This could be h ig h ly d e s i r a b l e o r h ig h ly u n d e s ir a b le — depends on a t t i t u d e . 26. Again* I b e l i e v e t h e magic o f C ost o f L iv in g may be d e c li n in g 1n Im portance In t h e n e a r f u t u r e . 27. "Some" f r i n g e b e n e f i t s o r " A ll" f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ? Only 1 f we a r e f o o l s enough t o t a k e c a f e t e r i a . Not a s long a s th e y a r e n o t f l a t d o l l a r amounts. Too many and v a r ie d groups would fig h t* e . g . * b u sin ess* unions* e t c . 28. T h is c o u ld prove b e n e f i c i a l t o a l l In vo lved. Never 1s a long tim e . Changed my mind on t h i s one— I t h i n k 1 t may w ell happen. We can do 1 t b e t t e r and r e t a i n more c o n t r o l . F r u s t r a t i o n w i l l I n c r e a s e more q u ic k ly . 29. The community w i l l r e q u i r e f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n o f b u i l d i n g s . I t has a lr e a d y happened 1n Michigan— w ill n o t be t h e tr e n d ! My re sp o n se 1 s based on e x p e rie n c e w ith school c l o s i n g s and more e f f i c i e n t u se o f b u i l d i n g s . 30. They w i l l c o e x i s t . 176 EDITED FEEDBACK ON FRINGE BENEFITS ROUND I I , PART I I 1. I d o n 't t h i n k t h i s has high p r i o r i t y . t h e amount— f u l l s a l a r y . I t ' s not th e c o st. I t's 2. I d o n ' t t h i n k t h i s has high p r i o r i t y . t h e amount— f u l l s a l a r y . I t ' s not th e c o st. I t's 3. I t ' s happening now. Already being p a id . 4. I t h i n k th e y have I t now. 5. T his 1s a c o s t l y f r i n g e n o t a l l peop le a r e I n t e r e s t e d 1 n. Addi­ t i o n a l f r i n g e s come a w fu lly slow . V ision w i l l fo llo w d e n t a l . 6 Very p r e v a l e n t 1n Metro c o n t r a c t s . . Should be covered by c u r r e n t h e a l t h In s u ra n c e . n o t on t h e m arket. 7. 8 I d o n 't t h in k t h i s has high p r i o r i t y . . 9. Not 50%. S p e c i f i c p la n s Many d i s t r i c t s pay on s c a l e — why pay tw ice? T his w i l l come w ith t e a c h e r a c c o u n t a b i l i t y . There a r e to o many c o n t r a c t s through 1983 w ith o u t t h e p r e s c r i p t i o n r i d e r . Very p r e v a le n t 1n Metro a r e a . 10. Government b e n e f i t s . S o c ia l S e c u rity * e t c . Cannot c o n tin u e t o be p i l e d on to p o f each o t h e r . Not u n t i l g r e a t e r expansion o f f r i n g e s f o r p r e s e n t employees. T his depends on which p a r ty 1s 1n c o n t r o l . T h is w ill encompass much more th a n e d u c a tio n . Some d i s t r i c t s have th is. 11. C a n 't budget 1 t . COLA w ill COLA la n g u ag e may come w ith u n iIm lte d . 12. I th o u g h t we had t h i s now. Tremendous l i a b i l i t y f o r d i s t r i c t s . T h is t r e n d 1s tow ard LTD In s u ra n c e . LTD r a t h e r th a n u n lim ite d sic k leav e. 13. D oesn't make sense. from t h i s . 14. D o e s n 't make s e n s e . Will remain a t s t a t e l e v e l . I l l e g a l . I s an e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t I n c e n t i v e . Extremely ex p en siv e — s c h o o ls 1n budget cru nch. l o s e I t s magic. The tr e n d w i l l change. caps o r o t h e r l i m i t a t i o n s . . . b u t n o t Far to o c o s t l y . I t h i n k w e're moving away 177 15. Not f u l l pay and n o t so f r e q u e n t. Too c o s t l y . Not a blgg ee with most t e a c h e r s . Small s c h o o ls w ill never a g re e — to o e x p e n siv e . Not a c c e p ta b le t o p eo p le n o t on le a v e . 16. Too c o s t l y . 17. S1ck le a v e bank 1s a b e t t e r answer. can s u r v i v e t h e s h o r t te rm . 18. C lose now. 19. Not t o o bad an Idea* b u t I doubt 1 t . 20. Too d i f f i c u l t t o r a t e f o r In s u ra n c e premium. Not a h1gh-pr1or1ty Item. Not u n t i l t h e b a s ic f r i n g e s a r e o b ta in e d . 2 2. T h a t 's an o u td a te d b e n e f i t . 23. T h is I s alm o st t r u e now. S t i l l a low p r i o r i t y . Too e x p e n s iv e . Many Boards d o n 't re c o g n iz e any h o lid a y s . They a l s o a r e convinced t h a t th e y have t o o many paid le a v e days now. Many have t h i s 1n my a r e a . 2 4. Few p eo p le can a f f o r d t o r e t i r e a t age 55. Pyramiding b e n e f i t s . When t e a c h e r s a r e n o t p l e n t i f u l * p la n s w ill s t o p . I t ' s going t o t a k e a l o t more e d u c a tio n o f g en eral p u b lic /s c h o o l b o a rd s. 2 5. These p la n s h a v e n 't worked s o f a r . When t e a c h e r s a r e n o t p le n ­ t i f u l * p la n s w i l l s t o p . As 1 t s ta n d s t h i s 1s I l l e g a l (AGO o p i n i o n ) . In c o u r t now. 26. Boards a r e going t o r e s i s t t h i s . They w ill pay t o sue t h e i r s e l f . T h is h as t o come a f t e r dental* LTD and v i s i o n . At t h e p r e s e n t tim e , t h i s I s a lo w -c o s t f r i n g e . 27. The I n n o v a tiv e In s u ra n c e p la n s a r e c o n s t a n t . 28. Dependent In s u ra n c e 1s I l l e g a l . Only a f t e r adequ ate f r i n g e s f o r employees. Being phased In . Some have now. 29 . I t ' s j u s t n o t happening any more. begin t o c u r t a i l o r r e s t r i c t use. 3 0. Extremely e x p e n siv e . 31 . Depends on how much p r o f e s s i o n a l development comes thro u gh mem­ b e rs h ip 1 n such a s s o c i a t i o n s . 3 2. Changed my mind. T h is may w ell happen. 1 f 50% d o n 't need t h e money. Too d i s r u p t i v e t o personnel o f f i c e s . The tr e n d 1s LTD. Employees T his I s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r u n lim ite d s i c k le a v e . Already 1 n many d i s t r i c t s . Phasing 1n now as o p tio n p la n . C o st Item . Bad In s u ra n c e . D i s t r i c t s w ill O ther needs f o r d o l l a r s . Cannot j u s t i f y r a i s e s 178 33. Cannot j u s t i f y t h i s t o p u b lic . 3 4. D o e s n 't make s e n s e . Boards a r e r e l u c t a n t t o a u to m a tic a lly g u ar­ a n te e a n y t h i n g . . . e s p e c i a l l y le a v e days. Being phased In now. 3 5. Too c o s t l y . 3 6. Too e x p e n s iv e . 37. Most In my a r e a have s t a r t e d t h i s w ith In s u ra n c e f o r 30 days more. 38. Q u e s tio n a b le on t a x . 39. Q u e s tio n a b le on t a x . 40. Changed my mind. T h is m ight happen. w ith a c t i v e employees. 41. Boards w i l l n o t do t h i s u n le s s r e q u ir e d by law. I doubt t h a t v ery many Boards w ill go f o r t h i s soon— 1 f e v e r . T h is does n o t seem l e g a l . H i s t o r i c a l l y we have argued d o l l a r s w ith Board and IRS. 4 2. There w i l l always be some p e n a l t y . 43. Obviously n o t v ery e x p e n s iv e approach— R ea lly n o t much economic 1n c e n tlv e . L egal1ty? 4 4. Too d i f f i c u l t t o r a t e f o r In s u ra n c e c o v erag e . Board w i l l n e v er be a b l e t o a f f o r d a u to damages. J u s t t o o much broad l i a b i l i t y f o r Board. Board w o n 't g u a ra n te e — p lu s need room t o allow f o r t e a c h e r f a u l t . Many have t h i s . Boards a r e more concerned I t ' s done a l r e a d y . 179 EDITED FEEDBACK FROM ROUND I I I PART I 1. T his w o n 't happen u n le s s we become much more o f a s o c i a l i s t n a tio n . D i s a g r e e . . . s a l a r i e s w i l l r i s e f a s t e r . 2. Ten p e r c e n t a y e a r w i l l y i e l d tw ic e t h e fam ily Income by 1988. Must slow down o r o t h e r f a c t o r s w i l l a p p e a r. We w i l l g e t a h a n d le on I n f l a t i o n 1n t h e n e x t decade. I d o n 't t h i n k M ic h ig a n 's economy w i l l allow t h i s t o happen as soon a s you t h i n k . 3. S t a t e w ill have t o r e c o v e r e c o n o m i c a l l y . . . I t h i n k t h e re c o v ery w ill be slow . M ic h ig a n 's economy w ill n o t allow t h i s t o happen a s soon as you t h i n k . 4. I d o n ' t b e l i e v e o n e - h a l f o f t h e d i s t r i c t s w i l l have r e g io n a liz e d b a rg a in in g by 1990. T h is 1s a lre a d y t r u e 1f mere d e f i n i t i o n s a r e u sed . P r e s e n t s t r u c t u r e has n o t produced and h as c r e a t e d some ba ck la sh o f p u b l i c s e n tim e n t. 5. Local c o n tr o l 1s more Im p o r ta n t. I d o n ' t b e l i e v e o n e - h a l f o f t h e d i s t r i c t s w i l l work 1n t h i s manner. Boards w ill r e a c t and ad o p t t h i s p la n a s a d e fe n s e 1n b a r g a in in g . Local c o n tr o l 1s one f a c t o r . . . T h e l e g a l i t y w i l l be c h a lle n g e d . Boards a r e to o p r o t e c t i v e o f t h e i r p o l i t i c a l power. This w i l l n o t o ccu r u n le s s fo r c e d by s t a t e l e g i s l a t i o n . . . p o l l t i c s w i l l d elay t h i s I n d e f i ­ n i t e l y . Regional b a r g a in in g 1s l o s i n g I t s charm. 6 . T his would t a k e l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n . Never 1s a long t i m e . . . I changed my mind. A s ta t e w i d e s c h e d u le f o r s a l a r i e s and f r i n g e s w i l l come a s ta x i n g power s h i f t s and a s la b o r peace becomes more a ttra c tiv e . Local u n i t s w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o g iv e up autonomy. I t h i n k t h i s 1s being plann ed n o w .. .t h e t r e n d 1s t o t i g h t e r s t a t e c o n t r o l . T h i r t y y e a r s 1s t o o lo n g ...I say 14 years* b u t 1 t m ig h t happen so o n e r w ith s t a t e o f o u r economy. 7 . When t a x i n g 8 . The b i g g e s t 9. base s h i f t s t o t h e f e d e r a l le v e l* so w i l l b a rg a in in g . f e a r 1s l o s s o f t a x ad v an tag e. As t h e money squeeze c o n tin u e s t h i s o f f e r s some hope o f r e l i e f . T his i s a o n e -tim e cash flow ad vantage by e l i m i n a t i n g r e s e r v e s . T his i s b e g inn ing t o o ccu r more f r e q u e n t l y a lr e a d y . Many a r e a lr e a d y doing t h i s . . . I t ' s a m ust. The f i n a n c i a l crunch w ill f o r c e s e l f - i n s u r a n c e . S e l f - i n s u r a n c e w i l l be combined w ith h ig h r i s k In s u ra n c e . 180 10. W orker's comp. 1s a l i k e l y p ro s p e c t on a re g io n a l b a s i s . I t may be n e c e ssa ry t o e s t a b l i s h groups l a r g e enough t o be r a t e d . Legal problems and autonomy b a r r i e r s w i l l h in d e r t h i s . 11. The p r i o r i t y w ill c o n tin u e t o be s a l a r y Improvement. The B o a r d 's p o s i t i o n I s b e t t e r c o s t c o n ta i n m e n t.. . t e a c h e r pays p a r t o f b e n e f i t . We a r e s e e in g t h i s 1n some c o n t r a c t s 1n r e c e n t y e a r s . 12. The c o s t o f equal d o l l a r s f o r each t e a c h e r 1s p r o h i b i t i v e l y expen­ s i v e . I hope n e v e r . . . o n l y s i c k peo ple w ill t a k e In s u ra n c e and c o s t s would s k y ro c k e t. 13. Many d i s t r i c t s and lo c a l EA's w i l l be promoting e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t p la n s . Paid f r i n g e s w i l l be I n c e n t i v e s t o e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t . Not f u l l b e n e f i t s . Some d i s t r i c t s a r e p r e s e n t l y g iv in g huge lump-sum payments which s e r v e t h e same p u rp ose. 14. This one 1s now open t o q u e s t i o n . . . I would change my answer t o 1990-94. R ig ht n o w ... r 1 g h t - t o - s t r 1 ke l e g i s l a t i o n allo w s t h i s . 15. I n - s e r v i c e and a f u l l work y e a r w i l l move t h i s Idea ahead. 16. I b e lie v e t h i s 1s In t h e Immediate f u t u r e and I s being done r i g h t now 1n some d i s t r i c t s by s h a re d assignm ents* e t c . P o s s ib ly 1n 1 1 eu o f added compensation when t h e money runs dry. 17. Few 1 f any p r o f e s s i o n s have p ro b a tio n a ry p e r io d s o f two y e a r s . 18. I see many c o n t r a c t s a c r o s s t h e s t a t e where s a l a r y and b e n e f i t s a r e t i e d t o a CPI. I doubt I f any t a x p a id employees can e v e r e x p e c t COLA...The employer d o e s n 't have t h a t much c o n tro l over re v e n u es. CPI ty p e Index 1s on t h e way o u t. Need t o p u t l i m i t s t h a t a r e known.. . e x p e r ie n c e s w ith COLA have n o t always worked o u t. A CPI uncapped w i l l n o t be a v a l i d Index. 19. Our p r e s e n t K-12 s c h o o lin g p a t t e r n 1s going t o change d r a s t i c a l l y . ...P e r f o r m a n c e c o n t r a c t i n g may happen so o n er th a n most people t h i n k . As t h e p u b lic becomes more vocal* a c c o u n t a b i l i t y w ill be stre sse d . 20. No one 1s a g a i n s t small c l a s s s i z e s I f I t can be a f f o r d e d . R e s u lts su p p o rte d by re s e a r c h v s . c o s t w ill have t o be shown 1 n o r d e r f o r t h i s t o happen. D e c lin in g e n ro llm e n ts combined w ith s t r i c t l a y o f f p r o v is io n s may c au se t h i s t o happen. 2 1. T his may happen so o n er th a n most peop le t h i n k . Unions c a n ' t allow t h i s . T h is o c c u rs now when d i s t r i c t s g iv e c r e d i t f o r a d d i t i o n a l e x p e r ie n c e . 181 22. D i s t r i c t s w i l l ta k e t h e funds and th e n complain about t h e s t r i n g s a t t a c h e d . We a r e going t h e o t h e r way. Trend tow ard "Reaganlsm" w i l l reduce f e d e ra l Involvem ent 1n school f in a n c in g . I t ’ s ta k e n o v e r 200 y e a r s t o g e t 7%.. . I t ' s n o t going t o double f o r an a w fu lly long tim e . 23. I t 1s a lre a d y upon u s. We need 1 t now b u t c o s t s w o n 't allow us 1n t h e n e x t 10 y e a r s . I t 1s a n e c e s s i t y now.. . t e a c h e r s d o n 't want 1t, boards c a n ' t a f f o r d 1 t and a r e unaware o f need. 24. As personnel problems c o n tin u e t o become more complex* 1 t w i l l become n e c e s s a ry . C ost f a c t o r 1s t o o high f o r most b o a rd s. 25. Boards w o n 't do t h i s . . . n e g o t i a t o r s a lre a d y do. j e a l o u s l y guard t h e i r autonomy. 26. COL 1s on t h e way o u t a s an a u to m a tic f a c t o r . 27. P o l i t i c a l c l o u t w ill p r e v e n t t h i s f o r some tim e . T his w o n 't happen a s long a s te a c h e r s remain p o l i t i c a l l y a c t i v e and away from f l a t amounts f o r f r i n g e s . 28. O ptions t o S o c ia l S e c u r ity w i l l c o n tin u e t o be s o u g h t. As 1 t a p p e a rs t h a t t h e system w i l l become b a n k ru p t t h e change w ill o c c u r. I wonder about my " n ev e r" re s p o n se . There 1s a le v e l of d i s t r u s t a b ou t o u r S o d a ! S e c u r ity system and I t s s o lv e n c y . 29 . T h is w i l l f i l l t h e need t o f u l l y u t i l i z e t h e d i s t r i c t s ' r e s o u r c e s . Not s u r e any group r e a l l y s u p p o r ts y e a r-ro u n d s c h o o l. I t h in k t h i s s t i l l 1 s an approach t o save energy and make more e f f e c t i v e use o f f a c i l i t i e s . 30. HMO p la n s can c o e x i s t w ith h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n and medical In su ra n ce p la n s . Local boards w ill 182 DELPHI PROJECTION QUESTIONNAIRE ROUND I I — PART I I P a r t I I o f t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e 1s concerned w ith some a c tu a l f r i n g e b e n e f i t s t h a t have appeared o r w i l l p o s s ib ly ap pear 1 n t h e f u t u r e . Your re sp o n se s w i l l be based on your judgment# "When w i l l 50% o f Michigan p u b l i c school t e a c h e r s r e c e iv e t h e fo llo w in g f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ? " D irectio n s—P a rt I I Each o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t s has feedback from t h e Round I re sp o n se s. These re sp o n se s have been summarized a s I n d ic a te d 1n P a r t I u sin g t h e same symbols f o r t h e I n t e r q u a r t i l e range# median# and your l a s t re sp o n se . In t h e column headed w ith t h e tim e I n t e r v a l s I n d i c a t e your e s t i m a t e when t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t has a chance o f being p a r t o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t package f o r 50% o r more o f Michigan te a c h e r s . Use an "x" o r The column headed REMARKS I s provided f o r you t o make any comments t h a t may be r e l e v a n t t o t h e t i m e I n t e r v a l you s e l e c t e d . S p e c if ic a l ly # you a r e re q u e s te d t o respond t o th o s e f r i n g e b e n e f i t Item s where your Round I I tim e e s t i m a t e 1s o u t s i d e o f t h e I n t e r q u a r t i l e range (Round I fe e d ­ back). These rem arks w i l l be summarized f o r t h e f i n a l round and may p ro v id e I n s i g h t t h a t could I n f lu e n c e o t h e r p a r t i c i p a n t re sp o n se s. P le a s e c o m p le te t h i s q u e s t i o n n a i r e and r e t u r n 1 t 1n t h e stamped enve­ lo p e e n clo se d . These d a ta w i l l be t a b u l a t e d and In c lu d e d w ith t h e f i n a l round feedback. The f i n a l round should be m a ile d t o you some tim e 1n August. I f you have any q u estio ns# p le a s e c o n t a c t me by phoning (616) 754-3686 o f f i c e phone o r (616) 754-8591 home phone. Datea of Occ urrei ice Es tima ted time inti erva o oo CM cn o ■sr cn CO co c o -3cn cn -o i . >cn cn cn cn GO 1. The U.S. Chamber o f Commerce re p o rts th a t f r in g e b e n e f its fo r a l l employees reached 3 6 . 7 % o f p ayro ll in 1 9 7 7 . In your o p in ­ ion, in what time in te rv a l w ill fr in g e b e n e f its f o r Michigan p u b lic school te a c h e rs average 5 0 % o f p a y ro ll? 2. In what year w ill th e median fam ily income (in 1 9 8 0 d o lla r s ) reach twice i t s p re s e n t amount? 3. When w ill th e median t e a c h e r s ' s a la r y reach tw ice i t s p re sen t amount? k . By what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e lo cal EAs belong to a regional bargain ing u n it? 5. By what year wi 11 50% o r more o f th e Michigan publ ic school d i s t r i c t s 1 boards o f education u n ite in to a m u l t i p l e - d i s t r i c t bargaining u n it? a) CO Remarks Never Fringe B enefit Developments P a rt 1 By 1980 Fringe B enefit Developments P a rt 1 6 . By what year w ill te a c h e rs belong to one s tatew id e barg ain in g u n it th a t w ill determ ine statew id e t e a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s and fr in g e b e n e f its (with p o s s ib le c o s t - o f liv in g indexes f o r d i f f e r e n t a re as o f th e s t a t e ) ? 7. In what y ear w ill te a c h e rs have t h e i r s a l a r i e s and f r in g e b e n e f its n e g o tia ted by a fe d e ra l bargaining u n it (with a c o s t - o f - l i v i n g index f o r d i f f e r e n t are as o f th e United S ta te s ) ? 8 . By what time in te rv a l w ill te a c h ­ e rs be a b le to s e l e c t an in d iv id u ­ a lly ta ilo re d (c a fe te ria -sty le ) f r in g e b e n e f it package from a d esig nated number o f d o l l a r s in t h e i r school d i s t r i c t ? Occ iirre nee stim ated tim b in te rv o o o CM -a- cn cn CO 00 cn cn •u i i i i c LTV in o o o>CO CO cn cn cn cn cn «n V to Oi o f Remarks Never m Dat 3 Date o f O ccurrence Estimated time in te rv a l Fringe B enefit Developments P a rt I o CO cn >- CO 9. In what year w ill 50% o r more o f the school d i s t r i c t s s e l f - i n s u r e some f r in g e b e n e f its such as long­ term d i s a b i l i t y o r l i f e insurance? 10. In what year w ill 50% o r more of the Michigan school d i s t r i c t s u n ite to g e th e r to s e l f - i n s u r e some f r in g e b e n e f its such as long-term d i s ­ a b i l i t y o r l i f e insurance? 11. In what year w ill 50% o r more of th e Michigan school d i s t r i c t s pay a l l o f th e t e a c h e r 's f r in g e bene­ f i t c o s ts w ith no c o n trib u to ry c o s ts made by te ac h e rs? 12. By what y ear th e Michigan mit te a c h e rs f i t s fo r cash w ill 50% o r more o f school d i s t r i c t s p e r­ to tr a d e f r in g e bene­ i n hand i f they des i re? -3CO I o co cn o o o cn co i LA co cn -a~ 0) CO L. 0 ) V > Date o f Occurrence Estimated time in te rv a l Fringe B enefit Developments P a rt I o co (TV -a - oo i o >» CQ 13. in what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan p u b lic school te a c h e rs have o p tio nal re tire m e n t a f t e r 3 0 years o f s e r v ic e w ith f u l l fr in g e bene­ f i t s t h a t a re o ffe re d by th e local school d i s t r i c t ? ]k. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan schools o p e ra te le s s than 1 8 0 in s tr u c tio n a l days? 15. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan schools o p e ra te on a f o u r - day week and s t i l l m aintain a minimum 1 8 0 -day school year? 16. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan te a c h e rs have a shortened workday p e rm ittin g te a c h e rs to work only when they have spe­ c i f i c teaching assignments? 17. In what time in te rv a l w ill th e nontenure te a c h e r s ' probationary period be reduced to one year? oo cn « Q) CD Remarks a) > Q) Dat e of Occ u rre nee Es tima ted time in t erva 0 00 cn >ao 18. In what time in te rv a l w ill te a c h ­ e r s ' s a l a r i e s , including c o s ts fo r fr in g e b e n e f i t s , be ti e d to a v a lid index o f economic growth such as a consumer p r ic e index (CPI)?: 19. By what time in te rv a l 1 w ill p e r­ formance c o n tra c tin g w ith te a c h ­ e rs become an a c c e p ta b le method fo r re c eiv in g a d d itio n a l compen­ satio n ? 20. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e average c la s s s i z e be le s s than 2 0 stu d en ts? 21. In what time in te rv a l w ill i t become commonplace f o r school d i s t r i c t s to o f f e r bonuses to h ir e o u tsta n d in g te ac h e r cand id ates? 22. By what time in te rv a l w ill fe d e ral funds reach a \S% pro p o rtio n of the t o t a l ta x d o l l a r s received by Michi­ gan school d i s t r i c t s (p resen t level is approxim ately 7 %)? j00 1 0 00 cn cn 00 1 m 00 cn -3cn 1 0 cn cn 0) ca Remarks Never Fringe B en efit Developments P a rt 1 Dat e o f Occ u rre nee Fringe B enefit Developments P a rt 1 Es tima ted time in t erva 1 o o o o ■3- > m 23- By what time in te rv a l w ill in serv i ce t r a i n i ng of te a c h e rs become a n e c e s s ity because o f computers, T.V ., and new teaching tech n o lo ­ g ie s? 2k. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e re be a 5 0 % in c re a s e in personnel a d m in is tra to rs whose primary r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w ill be to work with employee b e n e f its and o th e r r e la te d personnel fu n c tio n s in th e publ ic school d i s t r i c t s of Michigan? 25• By what time in te rv a l w ill boards o f education in a region o r area u n ite to g e th e r to review n e g o ti­ ated lo cal agreements f o r a c c e p t­ ab ility ? 26. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e Michigan Public School Employees' Retirement System have a b u i l t - i n c o s t - o f - l i v i n g f a c to r in th e re tire m e n t allowance? co 1 o oo cn oo 1 LA OO cn cn i o cn cn cn i in cn cn T3 c o >» V 00 Remarks 0) > 0) z 0 -3 - 00 cn 00 1 >~ 00 cn 0 CO 27. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e IRS ta x f r in g e b e n e f its received by te a c h e rs as ta x a b le income? 28. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan p u b lic school employers and employees g e t o u t o f th e Social S e c u rity (FICA) program and i n s t i t u t e an a l t e r n a t e program? 29. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michi­ gan go to a year-round school w ith te a c h e rs working on a s ta g ­ gered ba sis? 30. By what time in te rv a l w ill h e a lth maintenance o rg a n iz a tio n s re p la ce the p re sen t medical and h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n plans? cn 00 -a - 1 1 0 cn 00 m cn . m S hort-term d i s a b i l i t y insurance. 18. Long-term d i s a b i l i t y in su ran ce. 19. S c h o o l- d i s tr ic t- f in a n c e d physical examination a mini mum o f every two y e a rs. 2000 o oo ~ m -a co 1 o 00 cn cn oo i in 00 • m -3OO 1 0 00 CT\ cn 00 1 in 00 cn -3cn t 0 cn cn Remarks Never 0 CO cn Beyond 2000 (In your judgment, when w ill 50% o f th e Michigan p u b lic school te a c h e rs re c eiv e the follow ing f r in g e b e n e f its ? ) 1995-99 Fringe B e n e fits , P a rt II 26. A prepaid legal plan t h a t would allow advisory s e r v ic e , legal c o un selin g, investment planning, e t c . 27. Cancer insurance plan. 28. Dependent l i f e insurance w ith a m ini­ mum o f $1,000 per dependent. 29• A minimum o f two personal leave days per year t h a t can be used w ithout any reason given and f u l l y compensated. 30. Longevity pay (the top c o n secu tive pay step ) o f a t l e a s t 1% o f B.A. base fo r each year beyond top s te p o f n e g o ti­ ated s a la r y schedule. 31. A minimum o f $ 100/year f o r membership to nonunion education a s s o c ia tio n s paid fo r by th e school d i s t r i c t . 32. A ta x - s h e lt e r e d a n n u ity plan up to 5% o f annual income paid by th e school d is tric t. 2000 -dcn 1 0 - CO -3CO 1 0 CO cn cn co 1 in co oo oo >■ cr> cn CO -3* cn i o cn cn Remarks Never o 5 .7 8 9 .789 X 3*». L i a b i l i t y insurance; damage to personal p ro p e rty , c lo th in g , e t c . .255 .7*»5 A7k X 35. Guaranteed p ro fe s sio n a l conference leave with expenses p aid. .055 .255 . Lease c a r s f o r te a c h e rs t h a t tra v e l between b u iId in g s. 1.000 1.000 26. A prepaid legal plan t h a t would allow advisory s e r v ic e , legal c o u n selin g, investment planning, e t c . 27* Cancer insurance plan . 3 6 3 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected X 1.000 X Table D . l . —Continued. S i g n i f ,. Level 0.05 Round 3 Round 2 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected Fringe B en efit 1 37. Fringe b e n e f it and s a la r y c o n tin u a tio n a f t e r death o f employee f o r a n e g o tia te d period o f tim e. 3 .259 .130 X 38. Home insurance. 1.000 1.000 1.000 X 39. Home mortgage insurance. 1.000 1.000 1.000 X 40. Paid counseling s e r v ic e s f o r l a i d - o f f te ac h e rs to a s s i s t them in a cq u irin g o th e r employment. .119 .751 .751 X 41. Option to re c e iv e money in lie u o f fr in g e b e n e f its in the event o f double coverage w ith a spouse employed by th e school d i s t r i c t . • 741 • 370 .741 X .259 .259 .255 X 43. Retirement pay o f a minimum o f $100 fo r each year o f s e r v ic e in th e school d i s t r i c t . .586 .586 .586 X 44. Guarantee t h a t th e board w ill pay f o r any p ro p erty damage incurred by a te ac h e r when on le g itim a te school b u sin ess. .414 .249 .249 X 42. Sick leave bank t h a t co n tin u es 100% pay and f r in g e b e n e f its from th e time personal leave is used up u n til th e te a c h e r q u a l i f i e s f o r long-term d i s a b i l i t y . 200 Mo APPENDIX E SUMMARY OF SIGNIFICANCE LEVELS: RELATED FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS 201 Table E . l . — F r in g e b e n e f i t developments: summary o f s i g n i f i c a n c e l e v e l , t h r e e rounds. S ig n if . Level 0.05 Round 3 Round 2 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected Fringe B enefit Development 1 1. The U.S. Chamber o f Commerce r e p o r ts t h a t fr in g e b e n e f its f o r a l l employees reached 36*7% o f pay­ r o l l in 1977* In your o p in io n , in what time in te rv a l w ill f r in g e b e n e f its fo r Michigan p u b lic school te a c h e rs average 50% o f p a y ro ll? 3 .157 • 451 X In what year w ill the median fam ily income (in 1980 d o lla r s ) reach twice i t s p re sen t amount? .231 .392 .392 X When w ill th e median te a c h e r s ' s a la r y reach twice i t s p re s e n t amount? .608 .600 .300 X By what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e local EAs belong to a regional bargaining u n it? .500 .500 .150 X By what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e Michigan p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s ' boards o f education u n ite in to a m u l t i p l e - d i s t r i c t bargaining u n it? .s ^ s .286 .671 X By what year w ill te a c h e rs belong to one s t a t e ­ wide bargaining u n i t t h a t w ill determ ine s t a t e ­ wide te a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s and f r in g e b e n e f its (with p o s s ib le c o s t - o f - l i v i n g indexes fo r d i f f e r e n t a re a s o f th e s t a t e ) ? .500 .055 .300 X 1.000 1.000 1.000 X In what year w ill te a c h e rs have t h e i r s a l a r i e s and f r in g e b e n e f its n e g o tia te d by a fed eral bargaining u n it (with a c o s t - o f - l i v i n g index fo r d i f f e r e n t a re a s o f th e United S ta te s )? 202 .157 Tabl e E . l . —Continued. S ig n if . Level 0.05 Round 3 Round 2 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected Fringe B en efit Development 1 3 8. By what time in te rv a l w ill te a c h e rs be a b le to s e l e c t an in d iv id u a lly t a i l o r e d ( c a f e t e r i a s t y l e ) f r in g e b e n e f it package from a designated number o f d o l l a r s in t h e i r school d i s t r i c t ? .500 .608 .700 9. In what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e school d i s t r i c t s s e l f - i n s u r e some f r in g e b e n e f its such as long-term d i s a b i l i t y o r l i f e insurance? .671 .671 .329 .500 .i»5I .451 10. In what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e Michigan school d i s t r i c t s u n ite to g e th e r to s e l f - i n s u r e some f r in g e b e n e f its such as long-term d i s a b i l i t y o r l i f e insurance? 11. In what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e Michigan school d i s t r i c t s pay a l l o f th e t e a c h e r 's f r in g e b e n e f it c o s ts w ith no c o n trib u to r y c o s ts made by te ac h e rs? 12. By what year w ill 50% o r more o f th e Michigan school d i s t r i c t s permit te a c h e rs to tra d e f r in g e b e n e f its f o r cash in hand i f they d e s ir e ? 13* In what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan p u b lic school te a c h e rs have o p tio n a l re tire m e n t a f t e r 30 y e ars o f s e r v ic e w ith f u l l f r in g e b e n e f its t h a t a r e o ff e re d by the local school d i s t r i c t ? ]k. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan schools o p e ra te le s s than 180 in s tr u c tio n a l days? .671 .500 .671 .500 .286 .500 .500 .500 .500 1.000 1.0 0 0 1.000 X S Tabl e E . l . —Continued. S ig n if . Level 0.05 Fringe B en efit Development 15. In what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan schools o p e ra te on a f o u r -day week and s t i l l m aintain a minimum 180-day school year? 16. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan te a c h e rs have a shortened workday p e rm ittin g te a c h e rs to work only when they have s p e c i f i c teaching assignments? 17- In what time in te rv a l w ill th e nontenure t e a c h e r s ' p ro b a tio n a ry period be reduced to one year? 18. In what time in te rv a l w ill te a c h e r s ' s a l a r i e s , including c o s ts f o r f r in g e b e n e f i t s , be ti e d to a v a lid index o f economic growth such as a consumer p r ic e index (CPI)? 19. By what time in te rv a l w ill performance c o n tra c tin g w ith te ac h e rs become an a c c e p t­ a b le method f o r re c eiv in g a d d itio n a l compensation? 20. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e average c la s s s i z e be le s s than 20 stu d en ts? 1 Round 2 3 .286 .121 .231 .500 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 .286 .029 .069 1.000 1.000 1.000 .671 .286 .451 Round 3 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected x m o -E- Tabl e E . l . —Continued. S lg n if . Level 0.05 Round 3 Level 2 3 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected 1.000 1.000 1.000 .671 .500 .392 Fringe B en efit Development 21. In what time in te rv a l w ill I t become common­ p la c e f o r school d i s t r i c t s to o f f e r bonuses to h i r e o u tsta n d in g te a c h e r cand idates? 22. By what time in te rv a l w ill fe d e ra l funds reach a 15$ pro p o rtio n o f th e t o t a l ta x d o l l a r s received by Michigan school d i s ­ t r i c t s (p resen t level is approxim ately 7$)? 23. By what time in te rv a l w ill in - s e r v ic e tr a i n i n g o f te a c h e rs become a n e c e s s ity because o f computers, T .V ., and new teaching technologies? 2k. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e r e be a 50$ in c re ase in personnel a d m in is tra to rs whose primary r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s w ill be to work w ith employee b e n e f its and o th e r r e la te d personnel fu n c tio n s in the p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s of Michigan? 25. By what time in te rv a l w ill boards o f edu­ c a tio n in a region o r are a u n ite to g e th e r to review n e g o tia te d local agreements f o r a c c e p ta b i1i ty? ro ,157 .127 .700 ,5k3 .671 .500 ,500 .500 .635 o v/i Table E . l . —Continued. S i g n i f ., Level 0.05 Fringe B en e fit Development 26. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e Michigan P u blic School Employees Retirement System have a b u i l t - i n c o s t - o f - l i v i n g f a c t o r in the re tire m e n t allowance? 27. By what time in te rv a l w ill th e IRS ta x f r in g e b e n e f its received by te a c h e rs as ta x a b le income? 29. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan go to a year-round school w ith te a c h e rs working on a stagg ered b a sis? 30. By what time in te rv a l w ill h e a lth maintenance o rg a n iz a tio n s re p la c e th e p re s e n t medical and h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n plans? 1 Round 2 3 .5^9 M\ .157 X .365 .608 Mo X 1.000 1.000 1.000 X 1.000 1.000 1.000 X .157 .671 X .500 Null Hypothesis Accepted Rejected 206 28. By what time in te rv a l w ill Michigan p u b lic school employers and employees g e t ou t o f th e Social S e c u rity (FICA) program and i n s t i t u t e an a l t e r n a t e program? Round 3 APPENDIX F SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFITS: MEDIAN, RANGE, AND CONSENSUS 207 Table F. I . — F rin g e b e n e f i t s : summary o f t h r e e rounds f o r median, ra n g e , and c o n se n s u s. Fringe Benefit Median Time Interval Semi-lnterquartile Range Consensus Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 1980-8') 1980-84 1985-89 1980-89 1980-89 1980-89 N 47.4* 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 Y 57.9% 3. Paid overtime for hours worked beyond contracted school day at a negotiated rate. 1990-91) 1995-99 1995-99 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-99 N 21 .1* <1. Paid dental insurance. 1980-81) 1980-84 1980-84 1980-89 1980-89 1980-94 Y 68.4* 5. Paid vision care. 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1980-89 1980-89 1980-89 Y 57.9% 6. Paid hearing care. 1990-9!) 1990-94 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1990-99 1990-99 N 31.6% 7. Full tuition reimbursement. 1990-9!) 1995-99 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 26.3% 8 . Teacher effectiveness pay (i.e., merit pay, performance bonuses). Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 63.2% 9. Hospitalization insurance with pre­ scription rider. 1980-84 1980-84 1980-84 1980-84 1980-84 1980-84 Y 68.4% 10. Survivor income insurance with a minimum of $200 a month/spouse and $100 a month/ chi Id. 1990-94 1990-94 1995-99 1985-99 1990-2000+ 1990-99 N 3 6 .8* 11. Cost-of-living allowances (COLA). 1985-89 1985-89 1990-94 1985-94 1985-99 1985-99 N 15.8% 12. Unlimited sick leave accumulation. 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1980-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 3 6 .8* 13. Full pay for unused sick leave at retirement based on final pay rate. 2000+ 1995-99 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1985-Never 1985-99 N 10.5% 1*. Continuation of fringe benefits coverage for retirees. 2000+ 1995-99 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 26.5% 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 1985-2000+ 1990-Never 1990-Never N 31.6% Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 3 1. Term life insurance up to full amount of salary or higher. 2 . Accidental death and dismemberment (ADSD) insurance up to full amount of salary or higher. 15. Sabbatical leaves with full pay at least every seven years for approved reasons. Table F . l . —Continued. Fringe Benefit Median Time Interval Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Semi-Interquartile Range Round 1 Round 2 Consensus Round 3 Round 3 16. Paid leaves of shorter duration than sabbatical leaves. 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1980-99 1985-99 1985-94 V 57.91 17. Short-term disabi1ity insurance. 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1980-94 1985-94 1985-89 Y 63.2% 18. Long-term disability insurance. 1980-84 1980-84 1980-84 1980-89 1980-89 1980-89 V 57.9% 19. School-district-financed physical examination a minimum of every two years. 1990-9*1 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1985-99 1990-99 N 42.1% 20. Travel accident insurance program for job-related travel. 1985-89 1985-89 1980-94 1980-94 1980-94 N 31.6% Never Never Never 1995-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 68.4% 22. Additional medical options to cover ln-hospital benefits, weekly indemnity, etc. 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1985-99 1985-99 N 36.8% 23. A minimum of two personal holidays to be used during the school year (i.e., birthdays, anniversaries). 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 47.4% 1990-9*1 1985-89 1985-89 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 47.4% 25. A retirement incentive plan that would pay the teacher one-half of the differ­ ence between the B.A. minimum and what they could be earning for every year from age 55 up to a negotiated year. 1995-99 1995-99 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 31.6% 26. A prepaid legal plan that would allow advisory service, legal counseling, investment planning, etc. 1990-9*» 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 47.4% 27. Cancer insurance plan. Never Never Never Never Never Never Y 84.2% 2 8 . Dependent life insurance with a minimum of $1,000 per dependent. 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-99 1985-99 1985-94 Y 63.2% 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1980-94 1980-94 1980-94 N 42.1% 24. Retirement incentive plans where a teacher may be compensated a minimum of one year’s salary for early retirement at age 55* 29. A minimum of two personal leave days per year that can be used without any reason given and fully compensated. 209 1990-94 21. Vacation time allotments based on years of service to be taken during the regular school year. Table F. I .--Continued. Fringe Benefit Median Time Interval Semi-Interquartile Range Consensus Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 30. Longevity pay (the top consecutive pay step) of at least It of B.A. base for each year beyond top step of nego­ tiated salary schedule. 1995-99 1995-99 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1985-99 1990-2000+ N 31.6$ 31. A minimum of $IOO/year for membership to nonunion education associations paid for by the school district. 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 1995-Never 1995-Never 2000+-Never N 36.8$ Round 2 Round 3 Round 3 1995-99 1995-99 1995-99 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 15.8$ 33. Auto insurance. 1995-99 2000+ 2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1995-2000+ N 47.4$ 3*. Liability insurance; damage to personal property, clothing, etc. 1985-89 1985-89 1990-94 1980-94 1980-94 1985-94 N 47.4$ 35. Guaranteed professional conference leave with expenses paid. 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1990-99 1990-99 N 47.4$ 36. Lease cars for teachers who travel between buildings. 73.7$ Never Never Never 2000+-Ne'ver 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 37. Fringe benefit and salary continuation after death of employee for a negotiated period of time. 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 1990-Never 1990-Never 1995-Never N 26.3$ 38. Home insurance. Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000t-Never Y 68.4$ 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 73.7$ 39. Home mortgage insurance. Never Never Never 2000+-Never 40. Paid counseling services for lald-off teachers to assist them in acquiring other employment. 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 31.6$ 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1990-99 1990-99 Y 63.2$ 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-99 1985-94 1985-94 N 47.4$ 1985-99 1985-99 1990-94 1985-99 1985-99 1985-99 N 26.3$ 1985-89 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 47.4$ 41. Option to receive money in lieu of fringe benefits in the event of double coverage 42. Sick leave bank that continues 100$ pay and fringe benefits from the time personal leave Is used up until the teacher quali­ fies for long-term disability. 43. Retirement pay of a minimum of $100 for each year of service in the school district. 44. Guarantee that the board will pay for any property damage incurred by a teacher when on legitimate school business. 210 32. A tax-sheltered annuity plan up to 5t of annual income paid by the school district. APPENDIX G SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS: MEDIAN, RANGE, AND CONSENSUS 211 Table G . l . —Fringe ben efit developments: summary of th ree rounds for median, range, and consensus. Fringe Benefit Development 1. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce reports that fringe benefits for all employees reached 38.7% of payroll in 1977. In your opinion, In what time interval will fringe benefits for Michigan public school teachers average 50% of payroll? 2. In what year will the median family income (in 1980 dollars) reach twice its present amount? 3- Vlhen will the median teachers' salary reach twice its present amount? Median Time Interval Semi-Interquartile Range Round 2 Round 3 Consensus Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 1 1990-94 1990-94 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1985-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 18.8% 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1990-94 1990-94 Y 56.3% Round 3 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1990-94 1990-94 Y 68.8% 4. By what year wi11 50% or more of the local EAs belong to a regional bar­ gaining unit? 1980-84 1980-84 1985-89 1980-89 1980-89 1980-89 N 37.5% 5. By what year will 50% or more of the Michigan public school districts' boards of education unite into a multipledistrict bargaining unit? 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1990-99 1990-99 1990-99 N 37.5% 6. By what year will teachers belong to one statewide bargaining unit that will deter­ mine statewide teachers' salaries and fringe benefits (with possible cost-ofliving indexes for different areas of the state)? 1995-99 1995-99 2000+ 1990-2000+ 1995-2000+ 1995-2000+ N 43.8% 7. In what year will teachers have their salaries and fringe benefits negotiated by a federal bargaining unit (with a cost-ofliving index for different areas of the United States)? Never Never Never Never Never Never Y 75.0% 8. By what time interval will teachers be able to select an individually tailored (cafeteria-style) fringe benefit package from a designated number of dollars in their school district? 1985-89 1990-94 1990-94 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 43.8% 1990-94 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1990-2000+ 1985-99 N 18.8% 9. In what year will 50% or more of the school districts self-insure some fringe benefits such as long-term disability or life insurance? Table G . l . —Continued. Median Time Interval Fringe Benefit Development Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 1995-99 1995-99 1985-89 12. By what year will 50% or more of the Michigan school districts permit teachers to trade fringe benefits for cash in hand if they desire? Semi-Interquartile Range Consensus Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 2000+ 1985-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 25.0% 1985-89 1985-89 1985-2000+ 1980-94 1985-94 N 43.8% 1990-94 1995-99 1995-99 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 18.8% 13. In what time interval will Michigan public school teachers have optional retirement after 30 years of service with full fringe benefits that are offered by the local school district? 1990-94 1995-99 1995-99 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ 1990-2000+ N 18.8% 14. In what time interval will Michigan schools operate less than 1BO instructional days? Never Never Never 1985-Never 1990-Never 1995-Never Y 56.3% 15. In what time interval will Michigan schools operate on a four-day week and still main­ tain a minimum l&O-day school year? 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 1995-Never 1990-Never 1995*2000+ N 37.5% 16. By what time interval will Michigan teach­ ers have a shortened workday permitting teachers to work only when they have specific teaching assignments? 2000+ Never Never 1995-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 62.5% 17. In what time interval will the nontenure teachers' probationary period be reduced to one year? Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 68.8% 18. In what time interval will teachers' salaries, including costs for fringe bene­ fits, be tied to a valid index of economic growth such as a consumer price index (CPI)? 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 2000+-Never 1990-2000+ 2000+ Y 56.3% 19. By what time interval will performance con­ tracting with teachers become an accept­ able method for receiving additional compensation? Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 62.5% 10. In what year will 501 or more of the Michigan school districts unite together to self-insure some fringe benefits such as long-termdisabilityor life insurance? II. In what year will 50% or more of the Michigan school districts pay all of the teacher's fringe benefit costs with no contributory costs made by teachers? Round 3 Table G . l . —Continued. Median Time Interval Fringe Benefit Development 20. By what time interval will the average class size be less than 20 students? Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Semi-Interquartile Range Consensus Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 3 2000+ 2000+ 2000+ 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 50.0% 21. In what time interval will it become com­ monplace for school districts to offer bonuses to hi re outstanding teacher candidates? Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never V 56.3% 22. By what time interval will federal funds reach a 15% proportion of the total tax dollars received by Michigan school dis­ tricts (present level is approximately 71)7 1990-9*1 1990-94 1995-99 1985-2000+ 1990-99 1990-99 N 31.3% 23. By what time Interval wi 11 in-service training of teachers become a necessity because of computers, T.V., and new teaching technologies? 1980-8*1 1980-84 1985-89 1980-89 1980-89 1980-89 N 43.8% 2*1. By what time interval will there be a 50% increase In personnel administrators whose primary responsibil ities wil 1 be to work with employee benefits and other related person­ nel functions in the public school districts of Michigan? 1990-96 1990-94 1990-94 1990-99 1990-Never 1990-99 N 37.5% 25. By what time interval will boards of education in a region or area unite together to review negotiated local agreements for acceptability? 1980-8*1 1980-84 1985-89 1980-94 1980-94 1980-94 N 37.5% 26. By what time interval wi 11 the Michigan Publ ic School Employees' Retirement System have a bui It-in cost-of-1 iving factor in the retirement allowance? 1985-89 1985-89 1985-89 1985-94 1985-94 1985-94 N 43.8% 27. By what time interval will the IRS tax fringe benefits received by teachers as taxable income? 1990-9*1 1990-94 1990-94 1985-99 1985-94 1985-94 y 50.0% 28. By what time interval wil 1 Michigan publ ic school employers and employees get out of the Social Security (FICA) program and institute an alternate program? Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 62.5% 29. By what time interval will Michigan go to a year-round school with teachers working on a staggered basis? Never Never Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never 2000+-Never Y 56.3% 30. By what time interval wil 1 heal thmaintenance organizations replace the present medical and hospitalization plans? 1990-9*1 1990-94 1995-99 1985-Never 1985-Never 1990-2000+ N 12.5% APPENDIX H SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS: COMPOSITE 215 216 SUMMARY OF FRINGE BENEFIT DEVELOPMENTS: A. COMPOSITE Local and Regional F rin g e B e n e f it Developments By what y e a r w i l l 50% fir more o f t h e lo c a l EAs b e l ong t o fi r e g io n a l b a rg a in in g u n i t l i t e m 4JL? P ro bab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1985-89 1980-89 D e s1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparison: N eu tral G re a t disag reem ent O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — I s o l a t e d d i s t r i c t s o u t s t a t e w i l l n o t a c c e p t o r w i l l w ithdraw from t h e re g io n a l u n i t s . Local re s o u rc e s d i f f e r and boards w i l l refu se t o lo se Id e n tity ( I ) . — T his co n ce p t 1s l o s i n g ground. 1980 ( I I ) . This was t r u e 1n 1979 a s w e ll as — There w i l l be a c o n s o l i d a t i o n I n t o l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s and th e y w i l l be j e a l o u s o f t h e i r i d e n t i t y ( I I ) . —T h is 1s a new c o n c e p t . . .change o c c u rs slow ly ( I I ) . — I d o n 't b e l i e v e o n e - h a l f o f t h e d i s t r i c t s w i l l have r e g i o n a l i z e d b a rg a in in g by 1990 ( I I I ) . - - T h i s 1s a lre a d y t r u e 1 f mere d e f i n i t i o n s a r e used ( I I I ) . — The p r e s e n t s t r u c t u r e has n o t produced and has c r e a te d some b ack lash o f p u b lic s e n tim e n t ( I I I ) . 217 I n what y e a r w i n 50% o r more n f t h e Michigan school . d i s t r i c t s pay d l l £ f ±hs te a c h e rs 1 frin g e b e n e fit r e s t s w ith nc co n trib u to ry r o s t s made by t e a c h e r s l i t e m I D ? P ro b ab le d a te o f a cc e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1985-89 1985-94 D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: N eutral Very g r e a t disag reem en t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most In f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — We a r e In a p o s tu r e o f expanding b e n e f i t s ( I ) . — G e n e ra lly "phase 1n" th o s e as co-pa1d f o r a w h ile ( I ) . — I f e e l t h e r e should alw ays be some employee c o n tr ib u tio n s * o th e r w is e In c re a s e d c o s t s have no meaning f o r them ( I I ) . — " A ll" I s to o I n c l u s i v e ( I I ) . — " A ll" o f " a l l " f r i n g e b e n e f i t s w ill n ev er happen ( I I ) . — I s u s p e c t t h i s 1s t r u e now ( I I ) . — T h is w i l l n o t occu r u n t i l a f t e r t e a c h e r s have an a c c e p ta b le f r i n g e b e n e f i t package ( I I ) . — MERC# a r b i t r a t i o n # c o u r t r u l i n g s encourage t h e employee t o pay a " l i t t l e " f o r c a r r i e r pu rp oses ( I I ) . — The p r i o r i t y w ill c o n tin u e t o be s a l a r y Improvement ( I I I ) . — The B o a r d 's p o s i t i o n 1s b e t t e r c o s t c o n ta in m e n t.. . .T e a c h e r pays p a r t of b e n e fit ( I I I ) . — We a r e s e e in g t h i s 1n seme c o n t r a c t s 1n r e c e n t y e a r s ( I I I ) . 218 By what ti m e I n t e r v a l w i l l I n - s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g o f t e a c h e r s .become a n e c e s s i t y because £ f computers* T.V., end new te a c h in g techno1Pa1.es (Item 2 3 ) ? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1985-89 1985-89 D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: Medium d e s i r a b i l i t y No d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards Local boards P a n e l i s t s 1 feedback (Round) — I s n ' t 1 t now ( I ) ? — I changed my mind ( I I ) . — We need more o f t h i s ( I I ) . — I t ' s a n e c e s s i t y now b u t 1 t 1s n o t r e q u ir e d ( I I ) . — Such a tim e 1s a lr e a d y upon us ( I I ) . — I n - s e r v i c e t r a i n i n g h a s always been a n e c e s s i t y ( I I ) . — I w i l l r e v i s e my e s t i m a t e downward h e r e ( I I ) . — I t 1s a lr e a d y upon u s . We need 1 t now b u t c o s t s w o n 't allow us 1n t h e n e x t te n y e a r s ( I I I ) . - - I t 1s a n e c e s s i t y n o w .. .t e a c h e r s d o n ' t want 1t» Boards a f f o r d 1 t and a r e unaware o f t h e need. c a n 't fiy what t i m e 1n t e r v a l w i l l boards o f e d u c a tio n I n .a region AC a re a u n i t e t o g e t h e r to rev.lew u s g o l i a l e d lo c a l agreem ents lor a c c e p t a b i l i t y (Item 2 5 ) ? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1985-89 1980-94 219 D esirability Composite: Comparison: N eutral No d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — The o r g a n i z a t i o n s a r e lo o s e bu t do e x i s t ( I ) . — T h is c o n ce p t 1s n o t b e ing a c c e p te d o r used s u c c e s s f u l l y now ( I I ) . — R e p r e s e n ta ti v e s o f b o ard s a r e doing t h i s n o w ...b u t review does n o t y e t mean having t h e r i g h t t o a c c e p t o r r e j e c t ( I I ) . — As b oard s f i g h t re g io n a l b a r g a in in g , th e y w i l l be fo rc e d o u t of t h i s ( I I ) . — Local autonomy ( I I ) . — Boards d o n 't o r g a n iz e t h a t e f f i c i e n t l y ( I I ) . — T his could be h ig h ly d e s i r a b l e o r h ig h ly u n d e s ir a b le — depends on a t t i t u d e ( I I ) . — Boards w o n 't do t h i s . . . n e g o t i a t o r s a lr e a d y do. w i l l j e a l o u s l y guard t h e i r autonomy ( I I I ) . Local boards fiy what t i m e I n t e r v a l w i l l teachers he able to . s e l e c t a n I n d i v i d u a l l y t a i l o r e d ( c a f e t e r l a - s t y l e ) f r i n g e .benefit package from a d e s ig n a te d number. e£ .dollars in th e ir school d is tr ic t (Item fil? P ro b a b le d a t e o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1985-94 D e s 1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparison: N eutral No d isag ree m e n t 220 Organizational fa c to rs Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s 1 feedback (Round) — No comments ( I ) . — I do n o t b e lie v e t h a t d o l l a r s w i l l be s p e n t l i k e t h i s ( I I ) . — Equal cov erag e does n o t mean equal d o l l a r s ( I I ) . — Proposal makes s e n s e ( I I ) . — Use money on b a s i s o f needl ( I I ) — W111 d e s tr o y t h e p r i n c i p l e o f Insurance* which depends on chance ( I I ) . — I s u s p e c t t h a t such an approach would e v e n t u a l l y c a u s e b e n e f i t s t o be ta x e d ( I I ) . — Because o f f e a r o f l o s i n g t a x ad v an ta g e s p lu s B oard’ s "B1g B ro th e r" a t t i t u d e ( I I ) . — O ptions packages In c e r t a i n d i s t r i c t s ( I I ) . — The way o f t h e f u t u r e ( I I ) . — The b i g g e s t f e a r 1s l o s s o f t a x ad vantage ( I I I ) . In w hat y e a r w i l l £02 o r more o f the school .d istricts s e l f - i n s u r e some f r i n g e b e n e f i t s such .as lo n g -te rm d i s a b i l i t y o r l i f e In s u ra n c e (Ite m £1? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1985-99 D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: N eutral Minor disag ree m e n t 221 Organizational fa c to rs Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA P a n e l i s t s * feedback (Round) — S e l f - I n s u r a n c e needs a t l e a s t a group o f 200 o r more t o s u s t a i n a program ( I ) . — Do 50% o f t h e d i s t r i c t s have 200 o r more te a c h e r s 1n them ( I ) ? — Could d i s t r i c t s combine f o r s e lf - 1 n s u r a n c e ( I ) ? — T his c u t s a l o t o f bucks and as they add plans* they a r e le a r n in g th is (I). — Some l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s a lre a d y a r e ( I ) . — Some c o s t s a v in g s can r e s u l t ( I I ) . — There a r e o ver 500 d i s t r i c t s 1n Michigan where t h e coverage has l e s s th a n 250 t o t a l employees and going down ( I I ) . — You c an n o t s e l f - 1 n s u r e w ith t h e s e numbers ( I I ) . — A poor Id e a f o r small d i s t r i c t s . OK f o r big ones ( I I ) . — I s e e p i t f a l l s f o r s e lf - 1 n s u r a n c e ( I I ) . — Could c a u s e I n f e r i o r programs t o m a t e r i a l i z e ( I I ) . — P o t e n t i a l f o r c a t a s t r o p h i c c o s t 1s to o r is k y f o r school d i s t r i c t . . . A l s o * r e q u ir e d r e s e r v e would be t o o g r e a t ( I I ) . — S e lf - I n s u r a n c e w i l l be combined w ith h i g h - r i s k In s u ra n c e ( I I I ) . — As t h e money sq ueeze c o n tin u e s t h i s o f f e r s some hope o f r e l i e f (III). — T his 1s a o n e -tim e cash flow advantage by e l i m i n a t i n g r e s e r v e s (III). — T his I s beginning t o occur more f r e q u e n t l y a lr e a d y ( I I I ) . — Many a r e a lre a d y doing t h i s . . . I t ' s a must ( I I I ) . — The f i n a n c i a l crunch w ill f o r c e s e l f - 1 n s u r a n c e ( I I I ) . 222 JSy what y e a r w i n 5fl& jar more M ±£l§ Michigan school d i s t r i c t s .pexmlt t e a c h e r s ±o .trade IJriAflfl b e n e f i t s la c cash i n hand I f they desire litem 12 ) ? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Ra nge: 1995-99 1990-2000+ D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) - - T h i s d e s tr o y s t h e Id ea o f In su ra n c e ( I ) . — In s u ra n c e s p re a d s t h e r i s k ( I ) . — I f only peo ple who use 1 t ta k e 1t» t h e c o s t would be p r o h i b i ­ t i v e . ..IR S t a x a b i l i t y would be a problem ( I ) . — Option packages more l i k e l y ( I ) . — D estro y s t r u e In s u ra n c e coverage ( I I ) . — T h is goes a g a i n s t In s u ra n c e p r i n c i p l e s — chance ( I I ) . — T h is has p ro s and cons ( I I ) . — Too c o s t l y ( I I ) . — P r o t e c t i o n I s more Im p o rta n t 1n my e s ti m a ti o n th a n money 1n t h e pocket ( I I ) . — Runs a g a i n s t h i s t o r i c a l argument w ith Board and IRS— f r i n g e s a r e n 't tax ab le s a la ry ( I I ) . — The c o s t o f equal d o l l a r s f o r each t e a c h e r I s p r o h i b i t i v e l y ex p en siv e ( I I I ) . — I hope n e v e r . . . o n l y s i c k people w i l l ta k e In su ra n c e and c o s t s would s k y ro c k e t ( I I I ) . 223 By what tim e 1n te r v a l w i l l h e a l t h m ain ten ance o r g a n i z a t i o n s .re p la ce ± h s pr.es.ejit medical a n d h o s p i t a l i z a t i o n p la n s l i t e m 101? P ro b a b le d a te o f a cc e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1995-99 1990-2000+ D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: N eu tral Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA I n .wh.at v e a r j t l l l SOI n r more n f t h e Mi chi g an school d i s t r i c t s u n i t e t o g e t h e r J& s e l f - 1 n s u r e some f r i n g e t s n e f l t s such a s .l o ngr-term d i s a b i l i t y n r l i f e In s u ra n c e ( Item 1B1? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 2000+ 1990-2000+ D e s 1 r a b llI ty Composite: Comparison: N eutral No d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — T h is would have t o be done by an o u t s i d e p a rty o r a g e n t ( I ) . — C ost us ( I ) . — Risk 1s t h e key ( I ) . — T h is could prove t o be a s a v in g s t o school d i s t r i c t s depending on e x p e r ie n c e f a c t o r ( I I ) . 22k — Sounds l i k e an In s u ra n c e co-op and I d o n 't s e e t h i s as p ro b a b le ( I I ) . — W orker's comp. 1s a l i k e l y p ro s p e c t on a re g io n a l b a s i s ( I I I ) . — I t may be n e c e ssa ry t o e s t a b l i s h groups l a r g e enough t o be r a te d ( I I I ) . — Legal problems and autonomy b a r r i e r s w i l l h in d e r t h i s ( I I I ) . Ill what tim e interval w ill teachers' salaries* Including £fls±£ IfiT fringe benefits* Jig tie d ±fi a valid Index £ f .economic growth such ££ a consumer price Index (CPI) .(Item 181? P ro b ab le d a te o f a cc e p ta n c e Median: Range: 2000+ 2000+ D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: N eutral Very g r e a t disagreem ent O r g a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — "Never" f o r com plete s a l a r i e s ( I ) . — A form ula w ill be used t o d eterm ine a segment of t h e wages* as I t 1s now ( I ) . — The c u r r e n t In d ic e s a r e n o t t r u e I n d i c a t o r s ( I ) . — Done by d i s t r i c t s t o n o t g r a n t s i z a b l e I n c r e a s e s ( I ) . — T eachers t o I n d i c a t e th e y a r e la g g in g behind ( I ) . — Need more s t a b i l i t y 1n t h e economy ( I ) . — As long a s t h e r e a r e un ion s o r even a la b o r p a r ty t h e push w ill be t o Improve ( I I ) . —CPI 1s begin nin g t o l o s e I t s c r e d i b i l i t y ; b e s id e s t h i s Id ea 1s n o t to o r a t i o n a l f o r c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g ( I I ) . 225 — T h is J u s t w o n 't happen w ith a l l t e a c h e r s as t h e q u e s tio n In d ic a tes ( I I ) . — " V a lid " 1s a key word ( I I ) . — CPI 1s c u r r e n t c o n t r o l l i n g f a c t o r 1n n e g o t i a t i o n s ( I I ) . — I s e e many c o n t r a c t s a c r o s s t h e s t a t e where s a l a r y and b e n e f i t s a r e t i e d t o a CPI ( I I I ) . — I doubt 1 f any t a x p a id employees can e v e r e x p e c t COLA...The employer d o e s n 't have t h a t much c o n tro l over revenues ( I I I ) . — CPI ty p e Index I s on t h e way o u t ( I I I ) . — Need t o p u t l i m i t s t h a t a r e known.. .e x p e r ie n c e s w ith COLA have n o t always worked o u t ( I I I ) . — A CPI uncapped w ill n o t be a v a l i d in d ex ( I I I ) . By what ti m e 1n t e r v a l w i l l perform an ce c o n t r a c t i n g w ith .te a c h e rs become An a c c e p t a b l e method £f r e c e i v i n g a d d i t i o n a l compensation litem 19? ? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Never Range: 2000+-Never D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most In f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA P a n e l i s t s ' feedb ack (Round) — No way I ( I ) — H a lf t h e s t a f f would be f i r e d , o t h e r h a l f t o o busy competing t o do t h e i r j o b s ( I ) . —T his form o f m e r i t pay w i l l be a r e a l i t y 1f re sp o n se c o n tin u e a s th e y have ( I I ) . 226 — P r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l become a n a tio n a l Is s u e as demanded by a weakened economy ( I I ) . — Over s e v e ra l c o l l e c t i v e dead b o d i e s . . .damnable n o tio n ! ( I I ) — Our p r e s e n t K-12 s c h o o lin g p a t t e r n I s going t o change d ra s ­ tic a lly (III). — Performance c o n t r a c t i n g may happen so on er th a n most people t h i n k . As t h e p u b lic becomes more vocal* a c c o u n t a b i l i t y w ill be s t r e s s e d ( I I I ) . Ey wtiat t i m e i n t e r v a l W.1.1J i h e average class s1z.e J2£ l ess than 20. s t u d e n t s (Item 2121? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 2000+ 2000+-Never D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: Median d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d isag reem en t O r g a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s * feedback (Round) — The s t r u c t u r e o f t e a c h in g would have t o change ( I ) . — To a s s u r e a l l ( s a l a r y ) I n c r e a s e s and f r in g e s * c l a s s s i z e has t o be s a c r i f i c e d ( I ) . — With d e c l i n i n g e n r o llm e n ts c l a s s s i z e s w i l l edge downward ( I I ) . — With f e d e r a l f i n a n c i n g o f an a p p r e c ia b le amount ( I I ) . --T o o e x p e n siv e f o r t h i s ( I I ) . — No one I s a g a i n s t sm all c l a s s s i z e s I f I t can be a f f o r d e d ( I I I ) . 227 — R e s u lts su p p o rte d by r e s e a r c h v s . c o s t w ill have t o be shown 1n o r d e r f o r t h i s t o happen ( I I I ) . — D e c lin in g e n ro llm e n ts combined w ith s t r i c t l a y o f f p r o v is io n s may c ause t h i s t o happen ( I I I ) . In what ti m e I n t e r v a l w i l l I t become commonplace .for school d i s t r i c t s o f f e r bonuses ± e h i r e o u ts ta n d in g t e a c h e r c a n d id a te s (Item 211? ± 2 P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: Never 2000+-Never D e sirab ility Composite: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y Comparison: Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local boards MEA P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — T eacher unions w i l l oppose t h i s ( I ) . — T hat push 1s on and has been f o r coaches e s p e c i a l l y ( I ) . — Supply and demand a r e o u t o f "sync" ( I ) . — With an I n c r e a s in g t e a c h e r sho rtag e* t h i s w ill be a r e a l i t y ( I I ) . — A long s h o t . We may s e e a t e a c h e r s h o r ta g e a g ain ( I I ) . — C o n tr a c ts may change 1n t h i s regard* bu t commonplace? not ( I I ) . Probably — Unions c a n ' t allow t h i s ( I I I ) . — T his may happen so o n er th a n most people t h i n k ( I I I ) . — T h is o c cu rs now when d i s t r i c t s g iv e c r e d i t f o r a d d itio n a l e x p e rie n c e ( I I I ) . 228 B. S t a t e F r in g e B e n e f i t D evelopm ents £y what tim e 1n t e r v a l w i l l Michigan P u b li c School Employees Ret1 rem ent System has a b u i l t - i n c o s t-o f-1 1 v 1 n g factor In the r e t l r e m e n t allow ance H t s m 2fil? P ro b ab le d a te o f a cc e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1985-89 1985-94 D e s1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparison: Medium d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA L e g is la tiv e actio n P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — I b e lie v e t h e magic o f c o s t-o f-1 1 v 1 n g may be d e c l i n i n g 1n Im portance In t h e n e a r f u t u r e ( I I ) . — C ost-of-11 v1 ng 1s on t h e way o u t as an a u to m a tic f a c t o r ( I I ) . I h e i l J u Chamber n £ Commerce jap.or.ts that f r i n g e henS-flts for a l l employees reached 36.7% o f p a y r o l l I n 1977. I n your .Ofi.1n.lQnt I n Jfchat tim e i n t e r v a l w i l l f r i n g e b e n e f i t s .fo r Michigan public school .teachers average 5Q2Ls i nayrol 1 .(Item 11? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Ra ng e : 1995-99 1990-2000+ D e s1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparison: N eutral Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA* MEA Local boards 229 P a n e l i s t s 1 feedback (Round) — I n f l a t i o n 1s a big f a c t o r ( I ) . — P h ilo s o p h ic a lly * u n io n s have t o show money gain ed a l s o ( I I ) . — I t h in k government w i l l s t a r t t o z e r o In on t a x - f r e e b e n e f i t s . When more f r i n g e s become ta x a b le * t h e t r e n d w ill c e a s e ( I I ) . — I b e l i e v e t h i s t r e n d may r e v e r s e 1n term s o f p e r c e n t o f p a y ro ll (II). — Teachers may a g ain o p t f o r f r i n g e b e n e f i t s a s I n f l a t i o n re c ed e s o ver s a l a r y because 1 t comes o f f t h e to p and t h e r e I s no Income tax ( I I ) . — T his w o n 't happen u n le s s we become much more o f a s o c i a l i s t n a tio n ( I I I ) . —D is a g r e e ...s a la r ie s w ill r is e f a s te r ( I I I ) . £ y what y e a r w i l l £££ o r more s i ±hfi Michigan p u b lic school d i s t r i c t s ' bo ard s £ f e d u c a tio n u n i t e I n t o a m u l t 1 p l e - d 1 s t r 1 c t b a r g a i n i n g JWl± (Ite m £1? P ro b ab le d a t e o f a cc e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1990-99 D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: Low d e s i r a b i l i t y G re a t d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most In f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — T h a t 's a f t e r th e y g e t w ise t h a t th e y would have a chance as a u n ite d f r o n t ( I ) . —There may n o t be a need t o do t h i s ( I I ) . — Boards do n o t want t o g iv e up t h e i r lo c a l c o n tr o l ( I I ) . 230 — They (members) c a n ' t even a g r e e among th e m selv e s ( I I ) . — The t r e n d w i l l r e v e r s e when t h e d is a d v a n ta g e s a r e known ( I I ) . — Local c o n tr o l w i l l win o u t 1n t h e end ( I I ) . — Boards a r e a f r a i d t o do 1 t ( I I ) . — Local c o n tr o l 1s more Im p o rta n t. I d o n ' t b e l i e v e o n e - h a lf of t h e d i s t r i c t s w i l l work 1n t h i s manner ( I I I ) . — Boards w i l l r e a c t and ad o p t t h i s p la n as a d e fe n s e 1n b a rg a in ­ in g ( I I I ) . — Local c o n tr o l 1s one f a c t o r . . . t h e l e g a l i t y w i l l be c h a lle n g e d (III). — Boards a r e t o o p r o t e c t i v e o f t h e i r p o l i t i c a l power ( I I I ) . — T his w ill n o t o ccu r u n l e s s fo r c e d by s t a t e l e g i s l a t i o n . . . p o l i t i c s w i l l d e la y t h i s I n d e f i n i t e l y ( I I I ) . — Regional b a r g a in in g 1s l o s i n g I t s charm ( I I I ) . In what time i n t e r v a l w i n Michi gan p u b lic s.choal teachers lxa.v.e o p tio n a l r e t i r e m e n t a f t e r 30 y e a r s M s e r v i c e jd.th fu ll I f Inge benefits t h a t a c s o f f e r e d h y t h s lo c a l school d i s t r i c t litem 131? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1995-99 1990-2000+ D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: Low d e s i r a b i l i t y Very g r e a t d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most In f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA# MEA Local b oard s P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — B argain w ith l e g i s l a t u r e ( I ) . — The n e x t o n e - h a l f decade w i l l s e e some re tre n c h m e n t econ om ically (I). 231 — T his w ill h e lp t o encourage e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t ( I I ) . —There w ill be a need f o r l e g i s l a t i o n t o do t h i s ( I I ) . — MEA 1s s tr o n g 1n t h i s a r e a ( I I ) . — Hopefully# we have le a r n e d from o t h e r governmental u n i t s — l a r g e c i t i e s —many b e n e f i t s d o n 't make sen se— a l s o double dip p in g (II). — The r e t i r e m e n t system c o u l d n 't han dle such a wide v a r i e t y o f co v erag e s ( I I ) . —Michigan s c h o o ls w i l l ne v er be a b le t o a f f o r d 1 t ( I I ) . — Perhaps I'm t o o o p t i m i s t i c # b u t I t h i n k t h e c u r r e n t t h r u s t In r e t i r e m e n t I n c e n t i v e s w i l l ground sw ell ( I I ) . — Many d i s t r i c t s and lo c a l EA's w ill be promoting e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t p la n s ( I I I ) . — P aid f r i n g e s w i l l be I n c e n t i v e s t o e a r l y r e t i r e m e n t ( I I I ) . — Not f u l l b e n e f i t s ( I I I ) . — Some d i s t r i c t s a r e p r e s e n t l y g iv in g huge lump sum payments which s e r v e t h e same purpose ( I I I ) . By what t i m e 1n t e r v a l w i l l .there Be A Sfli I n c r e a s e I d perso n nel a d m i n i s t r a t o r s whose p rim a ry r e s p o n s i b i l i t y w i l l Be t f i JtfiTk With employee benefits and o t h e r .re lated p erson nel Jjinctl.pjis In th e pubJ±c school d i s t r i c t s j t f Michigan .(Item 241? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1990-99 D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: Low d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: A d m in is tra to r a s s o c i a t i o n s Local boards 232 P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — I f o r e s e e a p o s s i b i l i t y o f t h i s o c c u r rin g a t t h e In te r m e d ia te le v e l o r w ith s e v e ra l d i s t r i c t s h i r i n g someone ( I ) . — I t w o n 't be a d m i n i s t r a t o r s who I n c r e a s e ( I ) . — Depending on s t u d e n t en ro llm en t» s t a f f i n g p a t t e r n s a n d /o r co n so lid atio n s ( I ) . — T h is a r e a has grown more complex— a s c o s t s r i s e so does m otiva­ t i o n t o seek some s a v in g s ( I ) . — The personnel f u n c tio n w i l l be more and more Im p o rtan t ( I I ) . — I b e l i e v e 50* 1s j u s t to o high a p r o j e c t i o n ( I I ) . — The growth w i l l I n s te a d come 1n c l e r i c a l r a te d employees ( I I ) . — Finances w ill p r o h i b i t t h i s ( I I ) . — I t I s n ' t going t o happen u n t i l t h e r e 1s a s i g n i f i c a n t expansion o f t h e f r i n g e b e n e f i t package ( I I ) . — Budget problems c a u s e a d m i n i s t r a t i v e c u t s ( I I ) . — T h is 1s a reaso n why d i s t r i c t s w ill n o t s e l f - 1 n s u r e ( I I ) . — Runs a g a i n s t MESSA r e " c a r r i e r " ? ( I I ) — As c o s t problems c o n tin u e t o become more complex I t w ill become n e c e s sa ry ( I I I ) . —C o st f a c t o r I s to o high f o r most boards ( I I I ) . By what y e a r w i l l t e a c h e r s b e lo n g ±q one s t a t e w i d e b a rg a in in g j m l t th a t ■W1.1.1 d e te rm in e s t a t e w i d e te a c h e rs * s a l a r i e s a n d f r i n g e b e n e f i t s (w ith p o s s i b l e c o s t - o f - l i v l n g Indexes iar. d if f erent areas e f th e state) (Item £1? P ro b a b le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 2000+ 1995-2000+ D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: N eu tral G re a t d isag ree m e n t 233 O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : MEA Group most opposed: Local boards P a n e lis ts * feedback (Round) — The s t a t e c a n n o t respond q u ic k ly enough ( I ) . — Teachers of urban a r e a s w ill n o t allow t h i s f o r some tim e ( I ) . — I n t e r n a t i o n a l ty p e o f agreem ents f o r economics ( I ) . — Working c o n d itio n s * e t c . * s t i l l need t o be done l o c a l l y ( I ) . — The l a r g e r d i s t r i c t s w i l l never a g re e t o t h i s (II). — t h e tim e and e f f o r t o f 560 K-12d i s t r i c t s 1nb a rg a in in g w i l l f o r c e t h i s e a r l i e r th a n 1995 ( I I ) . — N e ith e r t h e union o r boards w ill allow t h i s ( I I ) . — I saw t h i s happen 1n New York S t a t e . They have s in c e s p l i t ( I I ) . — T h is w i l l mean s t a t e c o n tr o l o f s c h o o ls ; l o c a l boards w o n 't allow 1 t ( I I ) . — Never 1s a long t i m e . . . I changed my mind ( I I I ) . — T h is would t a k e l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n ( I I I ) . — A s ta t e w id e s c h e d u le f o r s a l a r i e s and f r i n g e s w i l l come as ta x in g power s h i f t s and a s l a b o r peace becomes more a t t r a c t i v e ( I I I ) . — Local u n i t s w i l l be r e l u c t a n t t o g iv e up autonomy ( I I I ) . — I t h i n k t h i s I s bein g planned n o w . .. t h e tr e n d 1s t o t i g h t e r s t a t e c o n tr o l ( I I I ) . — T h ir ty y e a r s 1s to o l o n g . . . I say 14 y e a r s b u t 1 t m ight happen soo ner w ith t h e s t a t e o f o u r economy ( I I I ) . 234 I n what ti m e I n t e r v a l w i l l M ichigan s c h o o ls o p e r a te l e s s th a n 180 I n s t r u c t i o n a l .days litem M l? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: Never 1995-Never D e sirab ility Composite: Comparison: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y No d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local board s and S t a t e Board P a n e l i s t s ' feed back (Round) — Never 1s a long tim e ( I ) . — I do n o t s e e a r e d u c tio n a t t h i s tim e ( I I ) . — P a r e n ts d o n ' t t h i n k k id s a r e 1n school enough now ( I ) . — Can d o l l a r s f o r s a l a r y and f r i n g e s be j u s t i f i e d 1f s h o r t e r school y e a r ( I ) . — R 1 g h t- to - s tr 1 k e l e g i s l a t i o n w i l l p e rm it t h i s ( I I ) . — There a r e a l t e r n a t i v e s . them ( I I ) . Perhaps we w ill be f o r c e d t o e x p lo r e — T h is w i l l be an a r e a o f movement when money I s n ' t ( I I ) . — Will pro bab ly happen so o n er th a n p r e d ic te d w ith t r e n d t o f o u r day week— m a in ta in h ou rs ( I I ) . - F o u r - d a y week due t o energy c o s t ( I I ) . — T h is one 1s now open t o q u e s t i o n . . . I would change my answer t o t o 1990-94 ( I I ) . — R igh t n o w . . . r 1 g h t - t o - s t r 1 k e l e g i s l a t i o n a llo w s t h i s ( I I I ) . 235 I n what Jtlmfi 1nterval Mill Michigan s c h o o ls operate a n a .four-day weak And still maintain A minimum 180-dav school y e a r (Item 151? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 2000+ 1995-2000+ D esirab ility Composite: Comparison: N eu tral No d isag ree m e n t O r g a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: Local S ta te b o ard s and LEA board P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) —T h is 1s p o s s i b l e in l i g h t o f t h e energy problem ( I ) . — I f we go t o a fo u r-d a y week, I do n o t b e l i e v e t e a c h e r s w ill work t h e a d d i t i o n a l weeks ( I I ) . — T h is may be an answer f o r more I n - s e r v i c e a n d /o r management ( I I ) . — Not u n le s s t h e p a r e n ts go on a fo u r-d a y week( I I ) . — T h is would mandate y e a r-ro u n d s c h o o ls ; I t j u s t I s n ' t going t o happen ( I I ) . — Some w i l l do t h i s ; n o t a l l ( I I ) . — Depends on f u e l / t y p e s o f w i n t e r s ( I I ) . — They have been doing t h i s 1n New Mexico J u s t r e c e n t l y and e l s e ­ where, s u c c e s s f u l l y ( I I ) . — I n - s e r v i c e s and a f u l l work y e a r w i l l move t h i s id e a ahead (III). By .what ±.1me In terv al W ill Michigan t e a c h e r s have a s h o rte n e d work .day permitting .teachers IQ work only when th e y have s p e c i f i c te a c h in g assignments lllem 1£1? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Med1an: Range: Never 2000+-Never 236 D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: N eu tral G re a t d isa g re e m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local b o ard s P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Only 1f t h e jo b m a rk e t g e t s even more d r a s t i c ( I ) . — Why not? I t 1s done a t t h e c o l l e g e and u n i v e r s i t y le v e l (II). — T his could be a p o l i t i c a l r e a l i t y ( I I ) . — I f s c h o o ls a r e t o m a in ta in p u b lic support* t e a c h e r s need t o Involved 1n more th a n j u s t c l a s s e s ( I I ) . be — My answer was and 1s based on t e a c h e r s s e e k in g p a r t - t i m e o r sh a re d classro o m a ssig n m e n ts ( I I ) . — I b e l i e v e t h i s 1s 1n t h e Immediate f u t u r e and 1s bein g done r i g h t now In some d i s t r i c t s by sh ared assignm ents* e t c . ( I I I ) . — P o s s ib ly 1n H e u o f added com pensation when t h e money runs dry (III). In JuAat .time IflJaaml W ill ±ilfi JK>Jlt9I),U.r.9 t e a c h e r s ' p ro b a tio n a ry p e rio d Jls reduced Jts £os year ( Item I I I ? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Med1an: Range: Never 2000+-Never D esirab ility Composite: Comparison: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d is a g re e m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA Local boards 237 P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Too many groups have a v e s te d I n t e r e s t ( I ) . — With p ro p e r e v a lu a tio n * why should 1 t be so long? ( I I ) — E v a lu a tio n o f s t a f f must be Improved f o r t h i s t o happen ( I I ) . — Few 1f any p r o f e s s i o n s have p ro b a tio n a ry p e rio d s o f two y e a r s (III). By x h a i .time i n t e r v a l w m Michigan jmfcllc school smplgyMs And employees ££± jgf ihfi S o c ia l S e c u r ity IfJ.CAl program anh In stitu te an a l t e r n a t i v e program (Ite m 291? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: Never 2000+-Never D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: Low u n d e s i r a b i l i t y Minor d is a g re e m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: L e g isla tu re MEA and l e g i s l a t u r e P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Perhaps some o f t h e s e l a r g e school system s ( I ) . — C u r r e n tly we can double d ip ( I ) . — T h is c o u ld prove b e n e f i c i a l t o — Never I s a long tim e . may well happen ( I I ) . a l l Inv olved ( I I ) . Changed my mind on t h i s one— I t h i n k 1 t — We can do 1 t b e t t e r and r e t a i n more c o n tr o l ( I I ) . — F r u s t r a t i o n w i l l i n c r e a s e v ery q u ic k ly ( I I ) . — O ptions t o S o c ia l S e c u r ity w ill c o n tin u e t o be so u g h t ( I I I ) . — As 1 t a p p e a rs t h a t t h e system w i l l become b a n k ru p t t h e change w i l l occu r ( I I I ) . 238 — I wonder a b o u t my " n e v e r” answer ( I I I ) . — There 1s a le v e l o f d i s t r u s t ab o u t our S o c ia l S e c u r ity system and I t s so lv en c y ( I I I ) . By w.hat Urns .ln.ter.v.a.1 tf-UI Michigan a s ±fl .a v e a r-ro u n d school w ith te a c h e r s working £ n a s t a ggered basts l i t e m 292? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: Never 2000+-Never D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: N eutral No d isagreem en t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: S t a t e board Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Depends on t h e energy crunch and number o f b u ild in g s t h a t have been c lo s e d ( I ) . — Will save money ( I ) . — P a re n ts have h i s t o r i c a l l y o b je c te d most ( I ) . — The community r e q u i r e f u l l u t i l i z a t i o n o f b u ild in g s ( I I ) . — I t has a lr e a d y happened 1n Michigan— w i l l n o t be t h e t r e n d . My re sp o n se I s based on e x p e r ie n c e w ith school c l o s i n g s and more e f f i c i e n t u se o f b u ild in g s ( I I ) . — T h is w i l l f i l l t h e need t o f u l l y u t i l i z e t h e d i s t r i c t ' s re s o u r c e s ( I I I ) . — Not s u r e any group r e a l l y s u p p o r ts y e a r-ro u n d school ( I I I ) . — I t h i n k t h i s s t i l l 1s an approach t o save energy and make more e f f e c t i v e use o f f a c i l i t i e s ( I I I ) . 239 C. N a tio n a l F r i n g e B e n e f i t D evelopm ents in what year will ihe median fa m ily twice its p r e s e n t amount litem 21? Income iln 1980 d o l l a r s ) reach P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1990-94 D esirab ility Composite: Comparison: N eutral G re a t d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA and MEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — I n f l a t i o n 1s a b ig f a c t o r ( I ) . — There a r e b a la n c in g f a c t o r s . Companies move o u t ( I I ) . — Probably w ish fu l th in k in g # b u t t h e v a lu e o f t h e d o l l a r 1s a t stak e ( I I ) . — I f I t ' s I n f l a t i o n # s o what? ( I I ) — I may be o v e rly o p t i m i s t i c 1n s p i t e o f some e c o n o m ists ' p r e d ic ­ t i o n s . I s e e t h e I n f l a t i o n a r y s p i r a l coming t o a s c re e c h in g h a lt (II). — Depends upon f a c t o r s r e l a t e d t o such an In crease# I . e . # r a t e o f I n f l a t i o n # Improved p r o d u c t i v i t y ( I I ) . — 10% a y e a r w i l l y i e l d tw ic e t h e fam ily Income by 1988 ( I I I ) . — Must slow down o r o t h e r f a c t o r s w ill ap pear ( I I I ) . — We w i l l g e t a han d le on I n f l a t i o n 1n t h e next decade ( I I I ) . — I d o n ' t t h i n k M ic h ig a n 's economy w ill allow t h i s t o happen a s soon a s you t h i n k ( I I I ) . 240 Ehfin ,w.m IhS median t e a c h e r s ’ s a l a r y reach 1m 1ce U s present amount (Item 21? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1990-94 D e sira b ility Composite: Comparison: N eu tral G re a t d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ’ feedback (Round) — Median 1s going up because t h e r e a r e few er and few er younger teach ers ( I ) . — Teachers* s a l a r i e s w i l l n o t keep pace w ith I n f l a t i o n ( I I ) . — I f I t ’ s I n f l a t i o n # so what? ( I I ) — Based on p a s t record# s a l a r i e s a r e n ’ t clim b in g t h i s r a p i d l y ( I I ) . — Conversely# a s I n f l a t i o n In c re ase s# boards g e t t i g h t e r ; so does t h e community ( I I ) . — S t a t e w i l l have t o re c o v e r eco n o m ica lly . w ill be slow ( I I I ) . I t h in k t h e recovery — M ic h ig a n 's economy w i l l n o t allow t h i s t o happen a s soon a s you t h in k ( I I I ) . By w hat .time 1n t e r v a l .w1.U f e d e r a l funds reach a 1 51 proportion &£ ±hs t o t a l la x d o l l a r s re c e iv e d i y Michigan school d is tric ts Iprasont lov.O.l I s a p p ro x im a te ly 211 (Item 221? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1995-99 1990-99 2*fl D e s1 ra b llIty Composite: Comparison: N eu tral G re a t d isag ree m e n t O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: LEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Median I s going up because t h e r e a r e few er and few er younger te a c h e rs ( I ) . — T e a c h e rs ' s a l a r i e s w i l l n o t keep pace w ith I n f l a t i o n ( I I ) . — I f I t ' s I n f l a t i o n * so what? ( I I ) — Based on p a s t record* s a l a r i e s a r e n ' t clim b in g t h i s r a p i d l y (II). — Conversely* a s I n f l a t i o n In c re a s e s* boards g e t t i g h t e r ; s o does th e community ( I I ) . — S t a t e w i l l have t o re c o v e r e co n o m ica lly . w ill be slow ( I I I ) . I th in k t h e recov ery — M ic h ig a n 's economy w i l l n o t allow t h i s t o happen a s soon as you t h i n k ( I I I ) . £ y what ti m e 1n t e r v a l w i l l f e d e r a l funds reach a 152 proportion £ f ±h£ t o t a l ±a* d o l l a r s re c e iv e d t y Michigan school d i s t r i c t s ( p r e s e n t leyfil l S ap p ro x im a te ly 2S1 (Item 221? Pro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1995-99 1990-99 D e s 1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparison: N eutral G re a t d isag ree m e n t O r g a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: NEA Local b oards and l e g i s l a t i v e a c t i o n 242 P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) — Federal programs a r e dropped by d i s t r i c t s when funds run o u t. T h is w i l l l i m i t f e d e r a l fu nd ing ( I ) . — Too much p r e s s u r e from o t h e r a r e a s o f government f o r funds ( I ) . — Cutbacks w ill o ccu r f e d e r a l l y ( I ) . — P o l i t i c a l l y w e've become more f o r c e f u l ( I ) . — T h is 1s d ev elo p in g c l o u t and s t a t e ' s f i s c a l woes w i l l h a s te n arriv a l of th is ( I I ) . — A f te r t h e 1984 p r e s i d e n t i a l e l e c t i o n y e a r ( I I ) . — I do n o t s e e an I n c r e a s e 1n f e d e r a l funds ( I I ) . — The new D epartment o f E ducation w i l l t a k e money t o c r e a t e more o f f i c e s and p ro c e d u re s . — The p o l i t i c a l sce n e changes to o q u ic k ly t o be a c c u r a te ( I I ) . --A lth o u g h new Department o f E ducation w ill push f o r more fun d s th e y a r e v u ln e r a b le f o r c u t s a s t o t a l s t u d e n t e n ro llm e n ts d e clin e ( I I ) . — As long a s n a tio n a l d e fe n s e has t h e f i r s t p r i o r i t y t h e p ro g r e s s w ill be slow and minimal ( I I ) . - - I t h i n k t h e t r e n d w i l l r e v e r s e 1n s p i t e o f o ur d e s i r e s ( I I ) . — T h is w ill t a k e tim e ( I I ) . — D i s t r i c t s w i l l t a k e t h e funds and th e n complain a b ou t t h e s tr in g s a tta ch e d ( I I I ) . — We a r e going t h e o t h e r way. Trend tow ard "Reaganlsm" w i l l red u c e f e d e r a l Involvem ent 1n school f in a n c in g ( I I I ) . - - I t ' s ta k e n o v e r 200 y e a r s t o g e t 7 5 5 ...I t ' s n o t going t o double f o r an a w fu lly lo ng tim e ( I I I ) . 243 fiy w h a t ti m e 1n te r v a l *111 lb s IBS ta x f r i n g e b e n e f i t s jcacelyftd te a c h e r s a s taxable I ncome l i t em 2Z1? P ro b ab le d a te o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: 1990-94 1985-94 D esirab ility Composite: Comparison: H ighly u n d e s ir a b le Minor d isag ree m e n t O r g a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : L e g i s l a t i v e a c ti o n Group most opposed: NEA P a n e l i s t s ' feedback (Round) --T o o many groups have a v e s te d I n t e r e s t ( I ) . — "Some" f r i n g e b e n e f i t s o r " a l l ” f r i n g e b e n e f i t s ( I I ) ? — Only 1f we a r e f o o l s enough t o ta k e c a f e t e r i a ( I I ) . — Not a s long a s th e y a r e n o t f l a t d o l l a r amounts (II). — Too many and v a r ie d groups would unions* e t c . ( I I ) . f ig h t* e . g . * business* — P o l i t i c a l c l o u t w i l l f i g h t t h i s f o r some tim e ( I I I ) . — T h is w o n 't happen a s long a s t e a c h e r s remain p o l i t i c a l l y a c t i v e and away from f l a t amounts f o r f r i n g e s ( I I I ) . In what y e a r w i n t e a c h e r s M xs t h e i r salaries And fringe benefits n e g o t i a t e d Jzy a f e d e r a l b a rg a in in g u n i t (w ith a C0St~0frJ.1ving index Ssl d i f f e r e n t .areas e f t h e United States? l i t e m 21? P ro b ab le d a t e o f a c c e p ta n c e Median: Range: Never Never D e s 1 ra b ll1 ty Composite: Comparlson: Medium u n d e s i r a b i l i t y No dlsag ree m e n t 2kk O rg a n iz a tio n a l f a c t o r s Group most 1n f a v o r : Group most opposed: MEA Local boards P a n e l i s t s ’ feedback (Round) — Teachers have t h i s t o some e x t e n t now ( I ) . — I d o n 't t h i n k I t w ill be a s I n c l u s i v e a s t h e s ta te m e n t I n d i c a t e s (I). — Never, a t l e a s t u n t i l th e y le a r n what t o do f o r f e d e r a l employees ( I ) . — Too many problems ( I ) . — As soon as t h e f in a n c in g s h i f t s t o f e d e r a l money, t h e b a rg a in ­ in g w ill a l s o — even I f t h e r e a r e s t a t e w i d e u n i t s (II). — We l e a r n a t t h e b a rg a in in g t a b l e n ev er t o say "n ev er" ( I I ) . — Never means t o me Im p o ssib le ( I I ) . — I d o n 't b e lie v e b a rg a in in g 1s a f e d e ra l arena ( I I ) . APPENDIX I NEA PROFESSIONAL SALARIES AND FRINGE BENEFIT GOALS 245 2k6 NEA PROFESSIONAL SALARIES AND FRINGE BENEFIT GOALS (E d ite d L i s t ) Source: 1. 2. NEA R e p o r te r* September 1981 S a la r y Goals a. P ro v id e schedu led minimum s a l a r i e s which a r e c o m p e t itiv e w ith b e g inn in g s a l a r i e s p a id t o c o l l e g e g r a d u a te s e n t e r i n g b u s in e s s and In d u s tr y and a d ju s t e d a n n u a lly th rough n e g o tia te d c o n t r a c t s which r e s u l t 1n a d o u b lin g of t h e c u r r e n t annual minimum s a l a r y w ith in t e n y e a r s o f f a c u l t y e x p e r ie n c e . b. Have a u to m a tic annual In c re m e n ts f o r e x p e rie n c e which a r e In no c a s e l e s s th a n 10% o f t h e b a c h e l o r 's degree minimum. c. A ssure t h a t I n i t i a l placement* advancement on t h e s a l a r y schedule* and p ro m o tio ns a r e based on o b j e c t i v e c r i t e r i a t o e l i m i n a t e t h e d i s p a r i t i e s which c u r r e n t l y e x i s t among f a c u l t y members o f com parable p re p a ra tio n * experience* and le n g th o f serv ice . d. A ssure t h a t s a l a r y p aid f o r summer* c o n tin u in g e d u c a tio n programs* extended c o n tra c ts * and e x t r a duty 1s n o t l e s s th a n t h e r a t e f o r r e g u l a r c o n t r a c t pay. e. Be developed th ro ug h t h e p ro c e ss o f c o l l e c t i v e b a rg a in in g . f. In c lu d e a c o s t - o f - H v 1 n g adjustm ent* based upont h e consumer p r i c e Index, which 1s In a d d i t i o n t o t h e r e g u l a r pay s c a l e and p a y a b le t o t h e employee. B as1c/Fr1nge B e n e f i t s The N a tio n al E ducation A s s o c ia tio n b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e school system must p ro v id e and pay f o r b a s i c / f r i n g e b e n e f i t s Including* b u t n o t l i m i t e d to* t h e fo llo w in g : a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. 1. j. k. Comprehensive h e a l t h In su ra n c e S ick leave* w ith u n lim ite d accu m ulation P e rso n a l le a v e M a t e r n i t y / p a t e r n i t y leave* In c lu d in g ad o p tio n S a b b a tic a l le a v e P a id p r o f e s s i o n a l le a v e P a id a s s o c i a t i o n le a v e Workers' Compensation L i f e In s u ra n c e Severance pay T u i tio n reim bursem ent 1. m. n. o. p. P erso nal a s s a u l t p r o t e c t i o n Long-term p h y s ic a l and mental d i s a b i l i t y In s u ra n c e B e n e f it e x te n s io n f o r l a 1 d - o f f employees R e lig io u s le a v e R etirem en t com pensation The A s s o c ia tio n a l s o b e l i e v e s t h a t t h e b a s ic b e n e f i t s o f comprehen­ s i v e h e a l t h Insurance* l i f e insurance* and lo n g -te rm d i s a b i l i t y I n s u r ­ ance sh ou ld be provided f o r e d u c a tio n a l s t a f f members on o f f i c i a l le a v e o f absence o r m a t e r n i t y / p a t e r n i t y le a v e . BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY The Advocate ( P r o f e s s io n a l Development and Human R ig h ts D iv is io n , Michigan E ducation A s s o c i a t i o n ) , no. 15 (September 1981). B a rz e r and L arsen, e d s. M ic h ig a n 's F is c a l and Economic S t r u c t u r e . Ann Arbor: U n iv e r s ity o f Michigan P r e s s , 1982. B ay to s, L. M. 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