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8603389

C ilo s k i , F r a n k P e t e r

AN E XPLO RATO RY S T U D Y O F YOUNG CONVICTED DRINKING DRIVERS:
PRELIMINARY IDENTIFICATION O F PROBLEM DRINKERS WITH
IMPLICATIONS FOR REEDUCATION

M ich iga n S ta te U n iv e rs ity

University
Microfilms
International

300 N. Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, Ml 48106

Ph.D.

1985

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF YOUNG CONVICTED DRINKING DRIVERS:
PRELIMINARY IDENTIFICATION OF PROBLEM DRINKERS WITH
IMPLICATIONS FOR REEDUCATION

By

Frank Peter Ciloski

A DISSERTATION

Submitted to
Michigan State University
in partial fulfillment of the requirements
for the degree of

DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY

Department of Teacher Education

1985

A c k n o w ledgements

Sincere appreciation is ex p r e s s e d to the following
persons for their assistance,

guidance,

The doctoral guidance committee:
Dr.

Donald L. Smith,

and encouragement:
Dr.

Dr. Ann E. Cunningham,

Robert 0. Nolan,
and Dr. Charles

A. Blackman.
Mr.

Fredrick E. Van o s d a l l of the H i g h w a y Traffic

Safety Programs for his technical guidance and assistance.
Judge Daniel L. Tschirhart of the M i c h i g a n 54th B
District Court,

East Lansing,

Michigan,

and his probation

officer Marianne Hurska for their assistance
of the

in the obtaining

invaluable data.
Dr.

Richard Ho u a n g of the User Information Service

at the Michigan State U n i v e r s i t y C o m p u t e r Center for his
technical assistance in the p r e p a r a t i o n and interpretation
of the data a n a l y s e s .
To m y wife Sandie,

and m y children Scott,

and Brian for their patience,

encouragement,

Michelle,

and endurance

without w h i c h this s t u d y w o u l d not have been possible.

ABSTRACT

AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF YOUNG CONVICTED
DRINKING DRIVERS:
PRELIMINARY IDENTIFICATION OF
PROBLEM DRINKERS WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR REEDUCATION

By

Frank Peter Ciloski

Statement of the Problem

As of April 1, 1983, Michigan statutes

(MCLA 257.625)

requires the assessment of all individuals convicted of
operating under the influence of intoxicating liquor (OUIL)
in order to identify the level of alcohol-related problems
in the individual by approved personnel.

This assessment

process requires a lengthy time period for both the assessor
and the individual.

A search for a cost-effective means

to reduce this time period is essential.
The purpose of this study was to determine the feasi­
bility of establishing a prediction model by use of regression
analysis of the pre-selected descriptive variables which
provides significant predictability of problem behavior
to be cost effective in its application.

Additionally,

this study may provide information on the characteristics
of young OUIL offenders which may have application to the
reeducation of these offenders to prevent subsequent similar
violations or enhance intervention techniques prior to

T ran': P e t e r CilccldL
initial violations.
this study were:

The pre-selected variables used in

the global score on the Mortimer-Filkins

Test which acted as the dependent variable with respect
to the independent variables 1) age;
tration;

2) blood alcohol concen­

3) number of alcohol drinking years;

4) alcohol

drinking days in the previous thirty days prior to assessment;
5) moving violations;

6) alcohol-related violations;

reckless driving violations;

7)

and 8) reported motor vehicle

accidents.

Description of the M e t h o d s , Techniques
and Data Used

Data on a selected sample of 126 young (ages 25 or
less) convicted OUIL offenders was obtained from the Michigan
54th B district Court,

East Lansing,

Michigan who met quali­

fications for inclusion in the sample.
The data were arranged,
analysis.

interpreted,

and coded for

For the purposes of statistical analysis the

global score on the Mortimer-Filkins Test acted as dependent
variable while the remaining data acted as the independent
v a r iable.
The following analysis of the data were conducted:
1.

An analysis of variance for the differences of

mean scores for the independent variables and level of
problem classification.
2.

The relationship of the dependent variable to each

of the eight independent variables.

Frc’.r.li P e t er Cilos'd.

3.

A multiple linear regression analysis of the

dependent variable to the eight independent variables.

The Major Findings

The findings of this study are many.

A limited number

of these findings follows:
A significant difference in the mean scores for the
independent variables motor vehicle accidents,
related violations,

alcohol-

number of alcohol drinking days in

the previous thirty days prior to assessment existed for
the level of problem classification.
A significant relationship existed between the dependent
variable and these independent va r i a b l e s :
accidents,

alcohol-related violations,

motor vehicle

age, number of alcohol

drinking y e a r s , and alcohol drinking days in the previous
thirty days prior to assessment.
A prediction model for the dependent variable was
derived using the following independent variables:

Motor

vehicle accidents,

and

Alcohol-related violations,

Age,

Number of alcohol drinking y e a r s .
Blood alcohol concentration at the time of arrest
did not significantly influence the dependent variable,
nor was there a significant relationship with any of the
other variables.
Previous descriptive behaviors are related to the
global score on the Mortimer-Filkins Test.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

T I T L E .........................................................
A CKNOWLEDGEMENTS.

.

i
ii

A B S T R A C T ......................................................

iii

I N T R O D U C T I O N ............ ......................

1

I n t r o d u c t i o n ...............................................
Purpose of the S t u d y ......................................
Statement of Research Problem ..........................
Delimitations .............................................
Limitations ...............................................
Basic Assumptions ........................................
Operat i o n a l Definitions .................................
O r g a n ization of the Study ...............................
F o o t n o t e s ...........

1
4
4
5
5
7
8
9
10

C H A P T E R I.

C H A P T E R II.

LITERATURE R E V I E W ............................

I n t r o d u c t i o n ...............................................
Studies of the Effect Alcohol Has on the Traffic
P r o b l e m ...............................................
Single Vehicle Accidents ............................
Consumption Patterns .................................
Studies of Young Driver and A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d
D r i v i n g .............................................
Demographic Studies of Drinking D r i v e r s ............
Hig h - R i s k Driver Studies ............................
Enforcement C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s ..........................
Effects of the Drinking Age on Traffic Fatalities.
O ther Variables and Youthful Traffic Accidents . .
E n g i n e e r i n g C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s ..........................
Educational C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s ..........................
Studies on the Drinking Behavior of the General
P o p u l a t i o n .............................................
Characteristics of Young D r i n k e r s ...................
Ea r l y Drinking and Subsequent Alco h o l Problems .
.
The M o r t i m er-Filkins T e s t ...............................
Introduction ...........................................
Design and Statistical A n a l y s i s .....................
Allied Research Studies
............................
S u p p lementary Information P r esented for the
A s s e s s o r .............................................

vi

12
12
14
15
16
18
21
24
31
34
36
38
39
44
48
51
53
53
54
55
56

vii
S u m m a r y ..................................................
F o o t n o t e s ...............................................
C H A P T E R III.

DESIGN AND M E T H O D O L O G Y .....................

59
62
69

The P o p u l a t i o n .............................................
Sampl i n g Design ...........................................
Data S o u r c e ...............................................
Data I n t e r p r e t a t i o n ......................................
The Null H y p o t h e s e s
Methods of A n a l y s i s ......................................
Report of A n a l y s i s ......................................
F o o t n o t e s ..................................................

69
70
70
71
73
78
78
79

ANALY S I S O F THE D A T A ........................

80

C H A P T E R IV.

Differences in the Mean Scores for Each Independent
Va r iable and the Level of Problem Classification .
80
82
A g e ......................................................
82
B lood Alco h o l C o n c e n t r a t i o n ..........................
The Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Years. . .
85
The Number of A l c o h o l Drinking Days in the
Previous T h i r t y Prior to Assessment ............
85
M o v i n g V i olations
...................................
85
A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d Violations ..........................
88
88
Reckless Driving V i o l a t i o n s ..........................
Reported Number of Motor Vehicle Accidents . . . .
92
The R e l a tionship of the Dependent Variable, the
M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test, to the Eight Independent
V a r i a b l e s ...............................................
92
The Development of a Prediction M odel by Use of
M u l t i p l e R e gression T e c h n i q u e ........................
97
Other Relationships Derived From the Analysis of the
D a t a ....................................................... 101
S u m m a r y ...........
105
F o o t n o t e s .....................................................109
C H A P T E R V.
SUMMARY, FINDINGS, C O N C L U S I O N S ,R E C O M M E N ­
DATIONS, AND D I S C U S S I O N / R E F L E C T I O N .......................... Ill
M ajor F i n d i n g s ................................................ Ill
A d d i t i o n a l Findings ......................................
112
A g e ......................................................... 112
B lood Alco h o l C o n c e n t r a t i o n ............................. 113
R e p orted Number of Alcohol Drinking Y e a r s ............. 113
Re p orted Number of Alcohol Drinking Days in the
Th i r t y Days Prior to Assessment
..............
113
Number of Mov i n g Violations
........................
114
Number of Reckless Driving V i o l a t i o n s ................. 115
C o n c l u s i o n s .................................................. 115
Recommendations ..........................................
118
General.
........................................... 118
R e s earch
........................................... 119
Discussion
........................................... 120

viii
R e f l e c t i o n s .................................................. 122
F o o t n o t e s .....................................................127

A P P ENDIX A
Means for all Variables b y Level of Problem C l a s s i ­
fication Sample, and the Standard Error of the
Sample M e a n .............................................

A1

AP P ENDIX B
Pearson C orrelation Co e f f i c i e n t Values for the
Various Combinations of the Eight Independent
V a r i a b l e s ...............................................

B1

APPENDIX C
The Mortim e r - F i l k i n s T e s t ...............................

Cl

APPENDIX D
The Pearson Co r r e l a t i o n Method, Multiple Regression,
and Residual Analysis
...............................
The Importance of the r Squared V a l u e .................
M u l tiple Regression ......................................
Stepwise Method of E n t r y .................................
Partial Correl a t i o n Coeffi c i e n t Squared and Multiple
r S t a t i s t i c s ...........................................
Analysis of Residuals ....................................
F o o t n o t e s ..................................................
BIBLIOGRAPHY

D1
D1
D2
D2
D3
D3
D7
128

LIST OF TABLES

BAC Levels of T e s t e d Drivers--1980 ................
Compos i t i o n of the selected sample b y level of
p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as d e t e r m i n e d by the
global score on the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test . . .
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the mea n age for
eac h level of p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ............
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the mea n b lood alcohol
c o n c e n t r a t i o n for each level of prob l e m
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ......................................
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the means for the
r e p o r t e d n u m b e r of years of alcohol drinking
for e ach level of p r o b l e m classification. . . .
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the mea n number of
re p o r t e d alco h o l d r i nking days p r i o r to
assessment for each level of p r o b l e m
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ......................................
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the m ean number of
mo v i n g v i o l a t i o n s for each level of prob l e m
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ......................................
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the m ean number of
a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations for eac h level of
p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ............................
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the m ean number of
reckless d r i v i n g violations for e ach level
of p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ........................
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the mea n number of
r e p o r t e d m o t o r vehicle accidents for each
level of p r o b l e m c l a ssification ................
The r e l a t i o n s h i p of each of the eight (8)
i ndependent variables to the dependent
variable, the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test, by
rank order of r e l a t i o n s h i p .......................
Multiple linear r egression output: variables in the
equation.
........................................
M u l tiple linear regre s s i o n output:
variables
not in the e q u a t i o n ...................................
A dditional r e g r e s s i o n statistics ...................
Multiple r e g r e s s i o n analysis of variance .........
Analysis of r e s i d u a l statistics of the
dependent v a r iable ...............................

ix

19

81
83

84

86

87

89

90

91

93

95

00
02
.03
D5
D6

Chapter I

Introduction

Eac h year y oung drivers under age twe n t y five are
over re p r e s e n t e d in traffic fatalities,

and all too often

alcohol d r i nking is a suspected related cause.
group represents
account

W h i l e this

22 percent of the licensed drivers,

for 38 percent of all fatal accidents.'*'

they

If the

percent of vehicle miles traveled is p a i r e d w i t h the percent
of alcohol involved accidents

for this age group,

the s t a t i s ­

tics reveal that drivers under age t wenty-five account
for n e a r l y 20 percent of the vehicle miles

and s l i g h t l y

more than 42 percent of the alcohol involved accidents.
The p h enomenon is often explained as the y oung person's
inexperience w i t h driving and a concurrent

inexperience

wi t h drinking alcohol.
Since alcohol
ex post facto,

involved accidents

are investigated

any supposition about the role of alcohol

in traffic accidents remain hypothetical.

However,

this

need not be a deterrent to the development of e a r l y identif i c a tion-prevention models directed at
drivers.

"high-risk"

young

At present there is a clear need for assessment

processes w h i c h aid in the reliable
risk drivers

i d e ntification of high-

likely to continue to have problems

contro l l i n g

alcohol use as it impacts on highway traffic safety.
As of April 1,

1983,

the State of M i c h i g a n revised

the statues p e r t a i n i n g to operationg under the influence
of intoxicating liquor

(OUIL).

An important change
1

in the

2
structure of the law was the m a n d a t i n g of a p r e - s e n t e n c i n g
assessment of all individuals
of the assessment

convicted of OUIL.

The purpose

is to e s tablish the degree of alcohol-

related problems w i t h the offender.
by state approved agencies only,

Assessments

are conducted

typ i c a l l y court p r o bation

offices or substance abuse agencies.

These agencies have

been instructed by the M i c higan Department of Public Health's
Office of Substance Abuse Services to utilize an approved
assessment p r o t o c o l in ma k i n g a d e t e rmination of alcoholrelated problems.
Filkins Test.

One such approved p r o t o c o l is the Mortimer-

2

The Morti m e r - F i l k i n s Test has been r e c o m m e n d e d because
of its high degree of re l i a b i l i t y and validity.
of the M o r t i m e r-Filkins

The authors

Test r e p orted a r e l i a b i l i t y coefficient

of 0.98 and a v a l i d i t y coefficient of 0.92.

Additionally,

t h e y r e p orted that 98.5 percent of the alcoholics,

but

no more than 1.5 percent of the n o n -alcoholics w o u l d be
identified as p r o b l e m drinkers by use of their cut-off
score.

3

Other studies

reliability,

have likewise r e p orted on the efficiency,

and v a l i d i t y of the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test in

identifying a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d problems,

and for this reason the

Mo r t i m er-Filkins Test was the criterion measure of this study.
Two limitations of the M o r t i m er-Filkins

Test are

the amount of time required to complete the assessment
by the assessment officer,

and the test ma y discriminate

less sharply among younger offenders.

W i t h this

in mind,

a search for selected variables that are read i l y available

4

3
to assessment p e r s o n n e l and related to prob l e m drinking
among younger OUIL offenders

is necessary.

a re v i e w of the literature yielded eight

For this purp o s e

(8) descriptive

variables w h i c h could be a p p r opriately used to assess p r o b l e m
drinking in these y o u n g offenders .

They are:

1)

Age

2)

Blood Alco h o l Concentration at the Time of Arrest

3)

Moving Violations

4)

Alcohol Related Violations

5)

Reckless

6)

Reported M otor Vehicle Accidents

7)

Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Years

8)

Reported Number of Drinking Days in the Previous
Thirty (30) Days Prior to Assessment.

Numerous

Driving Violations

authors

have identified the first six variables:

age, b l o o d alcohol concentration,
elements

(moving violations,

reckless driving violations,
priate

and the driving record

alcohol-related violations,
and accidents)

as being appro-

to the e v aluation of drinking drivers.

two v a r iables

are b y

5

. .
The r e m a i n i n g

nature the result of self-reported

data from the individual drinking driver.

The r e l i a b i l i t y

of self-r e p o r t e d data has been discussed by McKnight,
w ell as

as

b y W e n d l i n g and Kolody,

who found it invaluable to their
£
work on the impact of alcohol use on highway traffic safety.
In addition,

the importance of when individual alcohol d r i n k i n g

begins as a factor in determining prob l e m drinking has been
e stablished by several researchers.

7

The relationship of

q u a n t i t y - f r e q u e n c y to p r o b l e m drinking has likewise been

4
g
established b y numerous authors.

Thus all p r e - selected

variables have been u t i lized in other r e s e a r c h studies;
however,

these eight

independent variables have not been

utilized in a study of y oung convicted OUIL offenders when
the criterion meas u r e was the M o rtimer-Filkins Test.

Purpose of the Study

The p u r p o s e of the s tudy was to determine the feasibility
of esta b l i s h i n g a p r e d i c t i o n model by use of a regression
analysis of the p r e - s e l e c t e d descriptive variables which
provide significant p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of p r o b l e m behavior
to be cost e f f ective in its application.
this study m a y prov i d e

Additionally,

information on the characteristics

of young OUIL offenders w h i c h m a y have application to the
reeducation of these offenders
similar violations,

in order to prevent subsequent

or to enhance intervention techniques

prior to initial violations.

Statement of Research Problem

This study was to determine
descriptive variables:

age,

if eight

(8) pre-selected

blood alcohol concentration,

reported first year of alcohol drinking,

reported number

of alcohol drink i n g days

thirty days prior

to assessment,

in the previous

m o v i n g violations,

reckless driv i n g violations,

a l c ohol-related violations,

and reported m otor vehicle a c c i ­

dents of a specific con v i c t e d drinking driver have a r e l a t i o n ­
ship to the assessment of the level of p r o b l e m classification

5
as r e flected by the driver's global score on the MortimerFilkins Test.

Delimitations

1.

Onl y those drivers who were convicted of operating

under the influence of intoxicating liquor
54th-B District Court of Michigan,

(OUIL) by the

East Lansing,

Michigan,

and s u b s e q u e n t l y o r d e r e d to undergo substance abuse assessment
at the court p r o b a t i o n office were eligible for inclusion
in the sample.
2.

O n l y drivers

convicted of OUIL age twenty-five

(25) years old and under were included in e ligibility for
inclusion in the sample.
3.

Onl y those drivers arrested and convicted of

OUIL after April

1,

1983, but before Ma y 1,

1984 were eligible

for inclusion in the sample.
4.

Onl y those drivers

convicted of OUIL drawn from

the sample who had a v a ilable all pr e s e l e c t e d descriptive
variables w ere used in the statistical analysis.
5.

The conclusion s reached b y this study are r e p r e ­

sentative of this s e l ected sample only,

and as such cannot

be g eneralized to the popul a t i o n of drinking drivers as
a whole.

Limitations

1.

The qualifications

of the assessing probation

officer and the q u a l i t y of the assessment process were not

6
the subject of investigation in this study.
2.

Due to the M i c higan 54th-B District Court r e s t r i c ­

tions on client confidentiality,

contact wit h the individual

offenders was not permitted.
3.

There is some natural police s electivity in arrest

situations w h i c h varies b y department and individual police
officer,

and this s e l e c t i v i t y m a y be extended to the judicial

systems
while

in its p r o c e s s i n g of eac h individual subject.
this

bias

is

recognized,

it

is

not

dealt

Thus

with

in

this study.
4.
in

Due

the

to

s e l ected

the

limited

sample,

the dat a

for varia t i o n s

although

it

is

number

no

of

attempt

was

on the basis

recognized

that

subjects
made

available
to

analyze

of sex of the subject,

such

information

could

be

valuable.
5.
agency

The

capable

records

without

However,

it

records

could

of
to

the

is

sample.

avoid

the

availability

of

of p r o v i d i n g
undue

have
By

that

of
the

s t r e n gthened
limiting

introduction

w i t h the assessment

was

information

vio l a t i o n

recognized

subjects

the
of

a

use

interview technique,

the

confindentiality.

of

the

new

to

from organizational

client

data

limited

multiple

agency

representativeness
to

one

agency

variable

so

as

associated

a variable difficult

to m e a s u r e was avoided.
6.

Due to limitations

on the a v a i lability of subjects

it was not p r a c t i c a l to est a b l i s h a control population
w h i c h w o u l d have str e n g t h e n e d the interpretation of the
data.

7
7.

Due to limitations

on data collection,

the influence

of drugs other than alcohol

or drug interactions w i t h alcohol

on driving b e h a v i o r was not

a focus of this study.

Basic Assumptions

1.

It is assumed that responses to questions of

a self-report nature b y the subjects were truthful and
unbiased as has b een e s t a b l i s h e d b y other r e s e a r c h studies.
2.

It is assumed that all analysis of b lood alcohol

concentrations of those drivers arrested and s u b s e quently
convicted of OUIL was con d u c t e d b y trained per s o n n e l using
equipment m e e t i n g s t a ndard requirements
3.

for proper use.

It is assumed that all information available

from the M i c higan S e c r e t a r y

of State's driver's record

file was as accurate and up

to date as feasible for each

driver included in the sample drawn for s tatistical analysis.
4.

It is assumed that a l t hough the Mortimer-Filkins

Test asks specific questions ref e r r i n g to prior arrests
for b o t h driv i n g under the influence of intoxicating liquor
and reckless d r i v i n g

(Interview questions

39 and 45)

for

the purpose of scor i n g toward a c l a s sification of prob l e m
drinking behavior,

that these two items do not alone c o n ­

tribute s i g n i f i c a n t l y to the total score anymore than any
other item used in the b e h a v i o r classification.

8
Op e r a t i o n a l Definitions

1.

Mortimer-Filkins

Safety R e s e a r c h Institute,
Procedures

Test - also known as the Highway
U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan,

for I d e n t ifying Prob l e m Drinkers,

used to i d e n t i f y p r o b l e m drinkers.
2.

Court

is a test

9

Global Score - refers here to the sum of all

values to all r e sponses to the questions of the MortimerFilkins T e s t . ’*’*"*
3.

Subgroups

as defi n e d b y the global score on the

M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test a c c ording to the level of prob l e m
classification.
a)

Social Drinker - a drinker w i t h a score of less

than 60 on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test.'*'"*'
b)

E x c essive Drinker - a drinker w i t h a score of

60 to 85 on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test.
c)

Prob l e m Drinker - a drinker w i t h a score of 85

and above on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s
4.
refers

12

test.

B lood Alco h o l C o n c entration

13

- used b y most states

to a s t a n d a r d i z e d m e a s u r i n g system w h i c h measures

the weight of alcohol per volume of blood.
per 100 millil i t e r s

of b lood known as

The blood alcohol

"percentage by weight."

Michigan uses grams of alcohol per 100 ml.
Examples:

120 mg.

alcohol/100 ml. blood

.120 g/100 ml.
Results

in 12% blood alcohol concentration

weight/volume

9
5.

Driving Record - the o f f icial re c o r d as maint a i n e d

by the Michigan Department of the S e c r e t a r y of State.

Organization of the Study

In Chapter I an introduction to the p r o b l e m is discussed.
Chapter II is a re view of the literature related
to b o t h drinking drivers and c h aracteristics of youthful
drinking behav i o r important to the study,

as w e l l as the

Mortimer-Filkins Test.
Chapter III defines the population,

s a m p l i n g design,

and methodology.
C hapter IV presents the analysis

of the m a j o r hypotheses

by use of appropriate statistical tests.
Chapter V contains the summary,
recommendations,

findings,

conclusions,

and discussion for further research.

10
Footnotes

Sam Yaksich Jr., "The Tip of the I c e b e r g — Alcohol's
Involvement in Fatal C r a s h e s ,"
Journal of Traffic Safety
Education X X X , 1, (October, 1982) 23-24

2

Rudolf G. Mortimer, et al., "Psychometric Identification
of Problem Drinkers,"
Quarterly
Journal of Studies on Alcohol
34, (1973). 1333-1334.
3 Ibid
4

Aubrey W e n d l i n g and Bohdan Kolody. "An Evaluation of
the M o r t i m er-Filkins Test as a Pre d i c t o r of A l c o h o l--Impaired
Driving Recidivism, Journal of Studies on Alcohol 43, 7,
(1982) 751.
5

Rudolf G. Mortimer, et al., "Psychometric Identification
of Problem Drinkers,"
Q u a r t e r l y Journal of Studies on Alcohol
34, (1973), 1334; Me l v i n L. Selzer, Fred E. Vanosdall, and
Marion Chapman, "Alcoholism in a Prob l e m Driver Group:
A
Field Trial of the M i c h i g a n A l c o h o l i s m Screening Test (MAST),
Journal of Safety R e s e a r c h III, 4, (December, 1971), 177178; Floyd D. Smith, "Blood Alco h o l Level and Other Selected
Factors as Indicators of the P r o b l e m Drinking Driver," u n ­
pu b l i s h e d Ph.D. d i s s e r t a t i o n , College of Education, Michigan
State University, 1970, 63-65; A u b r e y W e n d l i n g and Bohdan
Kolody, "An E v aluation of the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test as a
Predictor of A l c o h o l - I m p a i r e d Driving Recidivism, Journal
of Studies on Alcohol 43, 7, (1982)
765.
0
A. James McKnight, e t . al.. Y outh Alcohol Safety E d u ­
cation Criteria D e v e l o p m e n t , N a t ional H i g h w a y Traffic Safety
A d m inistration (Washington, D.C.:
U.S. Government Printing
Office, 1979) 1.; A u b r e y W e n d l i n g and Bohdan Kolody, "An
Evaluation of the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test as a Predictor of
Alcoho l - I m p a i r e d Driving Recidivism, Journal of Studies on
Alcohol 43, 7, (1982)
765.
7

Howard T. Blane, "Problem Drinking m
Delinquent and
Nondelinquent Adol e s c e n t Males, American Journal of Drug and
Alcohol Abuse 9, 2, (1982-1983) 221; E dith S. L. Gomberg,
"The Young Male Alcoholic:
A Pilot Study,"
Journal of Studies
on Alcohol 43, 7, (1982),; Robert A. Zucker and Robert B.
Noll, "Precursors and Developmental Influences on Drinking
and Alcoholism:
E t i o l o g y from a L o n g i t u d i n a l Perspective,"
In Alcohol and H e a l t h M o n o g r a p h 1; Alcohol Consumption and
Related P r o b l e m s , (U.S. Department of Health and Human
Services, Washington, D.C., 1982), 289.

11
Q

David J. Armor and J. M i c h a e l Polich, "Measurement
of Alcohol Consumption,:
In:
E. M a n s e l l Pattison and
Edward Kaufman,
Encyclopedic H a n d b o o k of A l c o h o l i s m (Gardner
Press, New York, 1982) 72-80; J. V a l l e y Rachal, et al.,
"Alcohol Use Among Youth," In:
A l c o h o l and Hea l t h M o n o g r a p h 1:
Alcohol Consumption and Related Problems (U.S. Department
of Health and Human Services, W a s h i n g t o n D.C., 1982) 59-61.

g

M.W. Kerlan, et al.. Court Procedures for Identifying
Problem Drinkers Volume I : M a n u a l , N a t ional H i g h w a y Traffic
Safety Administration (Washington, D.C., 1971) p i.
10Burton Zung, "Factor S t ructure of the M i c higan Alcohol
Screeening Test, Journal of Studies on Alcohol 39, 1, (1978),
56.
J. S. Lower, R. G. Mortimer, and L. D. F i l k i n s ,
Court Procedures for Identifying P r o b l e m Drinkers Volume 3:
Scoring K e y s , National H i g h w a y Traffic Sa f e t y A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
(Washington, D.C., 1971), 7.
12 T, . ,
Ibid
13
14

Ibid

Committee on M e d i c o l e g a l Problems, A m e rican Medical
Association, Alcohol and the Impaired Driver: A Manual
on the Medicolegal Aspects of C h e m i c a l Tests for Intoxication
(American Medical Association, Chicago, IL, 1968) p. XIII.

Chapter II

L i t e r a t u r e Review
Introduction
Studies concerned w i t h e f f e ctiveness of h i g h w a y traffic
safety problems have been hampered b y the lack of w e l l designed
evaluation methods.
behavior,

As in other disciplines

s t u d y i n g human

high w a y traffic safety specialists obs e r v i n g driving

behav i o r find that it cannot be ea s i l y m a n i p u l a t e d into
e x p e r i m e n t a l - c o n t r o l groups.

Further c o m p l i c a t i n g the e v a l u ­

ation of highway traffic safety programs

has been the r e c o g ­

nition that more than one set of variables m a y be c onfounding
the outcome at any given time .
of confidence

in the results

Furthermore,

Consequently,

the degree

is often limited.

h i g h w a y traffic safety evalu a t i o n methods

commonly utilize traffic accidents

and traffic violations

as crite r i a for outcome measures.

However,

the detection

of traffic violations by law enforcement per s o n n e l are in­
frequent, and a traffic accident represents
rare event.

an even more

Studies have shown that not all accidents

traffic violations

and

appear on official traffic records.

Quite

often, only those of a more serious nature are reported.'*'
Consequent l y , t h e s e c r i t e r i a are not the best suited for
the detection of any subtle change that ma y result

from

an effective or ineffective program.

evaluation

methods

In addition,

are effected by a driv i n g environment w h i c h is not

12

13
static,

but rather r e presents

a dynamic,

ever-changing e n ­

vironment for w h i c h exact e x p e r i m e n t a l conditions

cannot

be replicated.
Therefore,

it has b een d i f ficult to find agreement

on the conclusions r e a c h e d by h i g h w a y traffic safety studies
b ecause they have often
to provide confidence

lacked sufficient

in the results.

evaluative designs

At most these studies

should be viewed as p r e l i m i n a r y investigations

in need of

further refinement.
The studies r e v i e w e d

in this

chapter represent those

considered to have c o n t r i b u t e d to h i g h w a y traffic safety
b y their findings,

and those that have been c o nducted by

individuals r e c o g n i z e d for their qualifications

and research

abilities.
A comprehensive r e v i e w of the literature on the drinking
driver as a traffic p r o b l e m and d r i n k i n g behav i o r of the
general p opulation y i e l d e d several studies of a pertinent
nature to this investigation.

These related studies and

surveys have been c a t e g o r i z e d a c c ording to the following
subject areas:

1) studies of the effect alcohol use has

on the traffic p r o b l e m

2) studies on the drink i n g behavior

of the general population,
twenty-five and under
Test.

in p a r t i c u l a r

individuals

age

3) studies of the M o rtimer-Filkins

14
Studies

of the Effect Alcohol Has

on the Traffic Problem

Investigations

Various

studies

of A l c o h o l -Related Accidents

have reported that alcohol has been

e v idenced in a p p r o x i m a t e l y 50 percent of the traffic
ties eac h year.

fatali­

The United States Department of T r a n s p o r ­

tation's National H i g h w a y Traffic Safety A d m i n i s t r a t i o n
(N H T S A ) reported thro u g h its Fatal Accident
(F A R S ) that there were 51,091 persons
45,284 traffic accidents
that

in 1980.

2

R e porting System

fatally injured in

The FARS data r e p orted

in a p p r o x i m a t e l y 40 percent of the accidents,

evidence

of alcohol involvement was found in at least one dri v e r
(positive results were determined through either chemical
testing or a statement by the investigating officer).
a study investigating p e destrian accidents
researchers

in New Orleans,

found that 50 percent of the pedest r i a n s

been d r i nking prior to the accident.

3

In

A Roberts'

had

re v i e w

of studies found these statistics:
1.

A Vermont s t u d y in the late 1960s

showed that

13 percent of the drivers stopped at checkpoints
d etectable b lood alcohol concentration
2.

(B A C ).

A C a l i f o r n i a study determined that

of the drivers

who

had some

74 percent

died in single vehicle accidents

had

been drinking and had an average BAC of 0.19 percent.
3.

A 1959 study of single vehicle crash fatalities

found 4 9 percent of the drivers had a BAC

betw e e n

0.15 percent

15
and 0.05 percent,

and 49 percent of the drivers

had a BAC of

0.15 percent or higher.
4.

A C a l i f o r n i a study of 1,251 c onsecutive highway

fatalities

found these results:

47 percent of the passengers,
had a

58 percent of the drivers,

and 36 percent of the pedestrians

detectable BAC often in excess of 0.15 percent.
Yaksich in

4

his review of the FARS data for 1980

that of all of the drivers

found

involved in fatal a c c i d e n t s , only

36.7 percent of the drivers wer e tested for b l o o d alcohol
levels.

He went on

to state the findings showed

that from the tested drivers

it was e s t a b l i s h e d that

68

percent had p o s i t i v e b lood alcohol levels w i t h over 51.7
percent having a
A d ditional

BAC of 0.11 percent or higher.
studies

5

in California, Vermont, and Michigan

have e s t a b l i s h e d the high r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of alcohol i n v o l v e ­
ment by drivers

in fatal crashes.

These studies demonstrated

that in 40 to 55 percent of the fatalities
a BAC of 0.10 perc e n t or higher,
large number of these drivers

the driver had

and a d d i t i o n a l l y that a

(29 to 4 3 percent)

had a BAC

of 0.15 percent or higher.^

Single Vehicle Accidents

Data p e r t a i n i n g to fatalities

in single vehicle accidents

from numerous studies seems to clearly e s t a b l i s h alcohol
involvement as a c o n t ributing factor.
have found that

R e s earch studies

55 to 65 percent of the drivers had a positive

16
BAC of 0.10 percent or higher,

and of this group 35 to 54

percent exceeded a BAC of 0.15 percent.
In a recent article,

7

Dr. Sidney Cohen d i s c u s s e d the

role of alcohol in single vehicle accidents.

Cohen reported

that various studies have found that 18 percent
of the drivers

to 51 percent

involved in multiple vehi c l e fatalities were

found to have a BAC of 0.10 percent or higher.
in single vehicle accidents

However,

involving fatalities ,

41 percent

to 72 percent of the drivers have b een found to have a BAC
of 0.10 percent or higher.

8

Furthermore, Reed has perso n a l l y estimated that 61 percent to 78
percent of fatally injured persons

in alcohol

dents are the drivers

This estim a t e w o u l d seem

themselves.

to be in accord w ith previous data,
single vehicle accidents.

involved a c c i ­

e s p e c i a l l y those studying

The data s t r o n g l y suggests

that

alcohol plays a significant role in traffic fatalities,
but

it w o u l d be wise to point out that the dat a ma y a c t ually

underrepresent the true role of alcohol

in traffic fatalities.

Yaksich found that states do not u n i f o r m l y test for positive
alcohol levels

in drivers

involved in fatalities,

and that

those states that test often show a higher involvement than
those states that test less f r e q u e n t l y . ^

Consumption Patterns

There is evidence to support the p o s i t i o n that alcohol
involvement has a significant role

in traffic

fatalities;

9

17
however,

it is a ppropriate to identify w h e t h e r these

incidents

are r a n d o m l y d i s t r i b u t e d in the popu l a t i o n or whether p a r ­
ticular elements of s o c i e t y are o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d b y their
involvement.
Studies over the last quarter cent u r y have establ i s h e d
that alcohol plays an active role,

at least on occasion,

in the lives of a m a j o r i t y of Americans.

Roberts reported

that surveys of the A m e rican p opulation showed that 4 0 percent
d rank beer once a week,
once a week.

while 25 percent d r a n k w h i s k e y at least

A 1958 survey found 71 percent of New York

households served some form of alcoholic b e v erage during
the m o n t h studied,

w h i l e a 1960 national poll d etermined

that 62 percent of the p o pulation sampled drank alcohol
in some form.'*'^
adults by
that

Cahalan reports on d r i n k i n g b e h avior among

comparing the years

He found

in 1967 a p p r o x i m a t e l y 71 percent of adults surveyed

between the ages
ally,

1967 and 1979.

21 to 59 reported d r i nking at least o c c a s i o n ­

w hile in 1979 a p p r o x i m a t e l y 67 percent of adults

18

or older surveyed r e p o r t e d at least occasional drinking.
The w e e k l y p u b l i c a t i o n Education W e e k on M a r c h 3,
lished National Institute of Drug Abuse
use among high school seniors
Among those drugs r e p o r t e d was
i ndicated that

in 1975

(NIDA)

for the years
alcohol,

1982,

12
pub­

data of drug

1975 to 1981.

and the results

90 percent of the seniors reported

using alcohol at least once.

For 1981,

93 percent of the

seniors reported some familiarity w i t h alcohol.

The same

NIDA data reported on daily use among high school seniors

18
w h i c h was found to be
in 1981.

5.7 percent

in 1975 and 6.0 percent

The survey concluded that the figures represent

v i r t u a l l y little change

in d r i n k i n g b e h a v i o r for high school

13
seniors.
While consumption rates have not changed dr a s t i c a l l y
in the recent past,

there

are a number of r e l a t i v e .implications

that can be made to the d r i n k i n g driver problem.
one study in the United States
that found

Department of T r a nsportation

75 percent of the drivers

driving after drinking.

14

Reed cited

surveyed reported

Y a k s i c h cited Fatal Accident

Reporting System data on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of BAC among tested
drivers.

15

(See Table

1, page 19 ).

Studies of Young Driver and A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d Driving

The data suggests

that y o u n g drivers

in fatal crashes w here a low BAC was
to Yaksich.

involved according

The data further d e m o n strates

of the BAC above 0.20 b e l o n g e d to drivers
The data also suggests that drivers

that

77.7 percent

aged 20 to 49.

50 years old or more

have the least involvement w i t h alcohol
Cohen,

are over r e p r e s e n t e d

in fatal crashes.

16

r e porting on single vehi c l e a c c i d e n t s ,'suggests

that youthful drivers between the ages of 14 to 24 are at
the greatest risk of involvement
this

and goes on to imply that

is due to lack of f a m i l i a r i t y w i t h the driving task

when combined wit h d r i n k i n g behavior.
that drivers
accidents,

25 to 50 have the

and drivers

Cohen also reports

lowest rate

40 to 60

of single vehicle

years old have the highest

Table 1
BAC Levels of Tested Drivers - 1980

AGE GROUPS

% of all
Licensed
Drivers

All Drivers
in Fatal
Accidents

Fatal Accident Drivers Tested for BAC
% of all
Tested

% Blood Alcohol Content

(BAC)

.00

.01-.05

.06-.10

.11-.20

.20+

9.8

16.4

17.2

17.8

22.5

25.6

18.0

9.0

20 - 24

11.9

21.6

24 .8

18.4

28.7

32.4

29.6

21.0

25 - 49

48.8

44 .5

43.7

38.8

38.4

34 .6

44.3

56.7

50 +

29.5

17.5

14.3

25.0

10.4

7.4

8.1

13.3

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

Under 20

TOTAL

20
17
BACs but few single vehicle accidents.
In a re v i e w of alcohol and highway sa f e t y studies,
Jones and Joscelyn cite results of several studies d e m o n ­
strating the scope and a g e-distribution of alcohol i n v o l v e ­
ment among traffic fatalities.
1.

The results are as follows:

Eighteen percent of fatally injured drivers under

20 years old had a BAC of 0.10 percent or more.
2.

Fifty percent of the fatally injured drivers

over 20 years old were legally intoxicated.
3.

The perc e n t a g e of legally intoxicated drivers

over 60 years old who were fatally injured was less than
those under 60 who w e r e fatally injured.
Similarily,

18

surveys of drivers r a n d o m l y stopped and

checked for p o s i t i v e b lood alcohol levels w ere r e p orted
b y Jones and Joscelyn.

The results

from a Vermont study

of drivers stopped at locations where fatal crashes occurred
found that

9 percent of drivers under 20 years old had

been drinking,

w hile 14 percent of those over 20 years

old had been drinking.

A similar Huntsville,

Alabama,

study

found 4 percent of the drivers under 20 years old had a BAC of
0.03 percent or more,

and 11 percent of the drivers

or older had been drinking.

20 years

Surveys conducted b y the National

H igh w a y Transpo r t a t i o n Safety Adminis t r a t i o n during an Alcohol
Safety Action Project arrived at similar conclusions with
6 percent of the under 20 years old drivers having a positive
BAC of 0.05 percent or more,

and of those 20 years or older,

14 percent had a BAC of 0.05 percent or more.

19

Such studies

21
have led the NHTSA to conclude that on any given weekend
night,

one out of ten drivers on the high w a y are legally

i n t o x i c a t e d .^
Jones and Joscelyn s u m m a r i z e d their review of studies
in the following manner:
If in 1975 onl y drivers w i t h a BAC of 0.10
percent or more are considered, they would
account for 47 percent of all fatal crashes,
11 percent of all p e r s o n a l injury accidents,
and 5 percent of all p r o p e r t y damage accidents.
The cost of all alcohol involved accidents
in the U.S. represents a s ubstantial share
of the 15.5 b i l l i o n dollars lost in 1977
t hrough all types of traffic a c c i d e n t s . 21

Demographic Studies of Drinking-Drivers

A number of studies have focused on whet h e r drunken
driving is randomly d i s t r i b u t e d in the driving population,
or whether certain subgroups
representation.

are mor e e v idenced in their

In a study of drivers

under the influence of liquor
of Transportation,

(DUIL)

arrested for driving

for the Oregon Department

Kaestner reac h e d these conclusions about

DUIL offenders:
1.

Sixty-six percent wer e laborers or skilled trades.

2.

Thirty-four percent had no license on themselves;

25 percent of which were either s u s pended or had no license
whatsoever.
3.

The largest share of offenders

came from towns

under 10,000.
4.

The average BAC was

0.23 percent.

22
S e v e nty-three percent reported having been drinking

5.

in either a bar or pub l i c drinking location.
6.

Ninety-three percent of the drivers reported

b eing on their w a y home.
7.

Fifty perc e n t of the arrests occurred on w e e k e n d

nights.
8.
arrests;

had

T hirty-five percent had one or more prior DUIL
16 percent had one or more reckless driving arrests.

9.

Forty-one percent had non-dr i v i n g arrests.

10.

For any type

one or

of drinking arrest,

more dri v i n g or

40 percent had their first
years ago.

58 percent

non-driving drinking convictions;

drinking arrest five or more

22

The Jones and Joscelyn study prepared for the NHTSA
a rrived at these conclusions regarding frequency in alcohol
related c r a s h e s :
1.

male sex

2.

age of 20 to 60 years

3.

h eavy d r i n k i n g and severe drinking prob l e m

4.

pref e r e n c e for beer over alcoholic beverages

5.

w e e k e n d driv i n g habits

6.

prior h i s t o r y

The authors

of drunk driving arrests.

further described drivers w ith a higher

than average crash risk after drinking:
1.

female sex

2.

y outh

3.

old age

(under 20 years old)
(over 60 years old)

4.

23
23
light d r i n k i n g habits.

In a study of DUIL offenders

arrested in three mid-

Michigan counties S m i t h found these data among the sample:
1.

Seventy-four percent of the drivers d e m o n strated

symptoms of a severe d r i nking problem.
2.

The average BAC of severe p r o b l e m drinkers was

greater than that of t e m p o r a r y p r o b l e m drinkers.
3.

Onl y drinkers having the symptoms of severe problem

drinking had a BAC in excess of 0.25 percent,

but none

were found w i t h a BAC of less than 0.12 percent.
4.

Lower aged groups had lower BACs than did middle

aged and older d r i n k e r s .
5.

Higher BAC levels were p o s i t i v e l y related to

an increase in the number of arrests

for DUIL and diso r d e r l y

conduct and hosp i t a l i z a t i o n for alcohol dependence.

24

A 1978 report to the legislature b y the C a lifornia
DMV points out that estimates rang i n g from 36 percent to
as high as 50 percent have bee n m ade of the alcoholic's
involvement in traffic fatalities.

25

The report cites

a number of significant r e s e a r c h studies that seem to s u b ­
stantiate the alcoholic's role in traffic deaths.

A few

studies are s u mmarized as f o l l o w s :
1.

A 1962 New York City study of fatal crashes

found

46 percent of the drivers had a BAC of 0.25 percent.
2.

A 1966 s tudy of 72 crashes

sulted in 87 fatalities

in Michigan that r e ­

found half of the sample to be

pre-alcoholic or alcoholic.

24
3.

A 1966 San Francisco study of 208 c onsecutive

traffic deaths r e p o r t e d that 37 percent of the sample had
been d r i nking before death.

Of this group 71 percent had

a BAC of 0.15 percent or more.
4.

A 1968 C a l i f o r n i a study reported that 6.5 percent

of the drivers were alcoholic,

and they were r esponsible

for 56 percent of a l c o h o l -related accidents.

26

Landstreet r e v i e w e d one early 1 9 7 0 's Alcohol Safety
Action Project

(ASAP)

conducted in Fairfax County,

Virginia.

The project s c r eened drivers by levels of alcohol impairment
w i t h the intent of improving rehabilitative treatment.
The ASAP for Fairfax,

Virginia,

found 20 percent of the

screened DUIL offenders were classified as social drinkers,
50 percent as

p r e p r o b l e m drinkers,

drinkers or chronic a l c o h o l i c s .
(rearrest)

and 30 percent

as p r o b l e m

The rate of r e c i d i v i s m

for DUIL also rises as the offender moves thro u g h

the classif i c a t i o n system.

27

H i g h-Risk Driver Studies

A few h i g h w a y traffic safety studies have attempted
to identify subgroups

from the driving p opulation as a whole

believed to be at h i gh-risk of having a l cohol-related
crashes.

One such effort was a study conducted by the U n i ­

v ers i t y of N o r t h C a r olina Highway Safety Research Center.
The goals of the study were to develop a p rediction model
w h i c h could identify h i g h-risk drivers before a crash and

25
to identify a ppropriate c o s t-effective countermeasures
for use w ith hig h - r i s k subgroups.

28

After a r e v i e w of the literature,
the general d r i v i n g popu l a t i o n were

six subgroups

from

identified as being

at hig h - r i s k to have an alco h o l - r e l a t e d crash.

These subgroups

were as follows:
1.

Young males,

16-20 years old

2.

Young males,

21-24 years old

3.

Persons p r e v i o u s l y convicted of

4.

DUIL

Persons w i t h 3 or more mov i n g violations

5.

Persons r e c e n t l y divorced

6.

Persons r e c e n t l y released from prison.

The complete statement of the rationale

29

for the selection

of these subgroups can be found in Chap t e r 2, Volume

I

of the T e c hnical Report p r e p a r e d by the U n i v e r s i t y of North
C a r olina H i g h w a y Sa f e t y Research Center.

However,

suffice

to say here that the selection was made on the basis of p r e ­
viou s l y identified d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g b e h avior of eac h subgroup
w h i c h pl a c e d them at high-risk of an alcohol- r e l a t e d crash.
The data for the study was obtained from official driving
records,

divorce records,

the criminal records of the North

Carolina Department of Corrections,
C a r olina traffic accidents.

and a file of North

The data was me r g e d by use

of computer assistance to create one file containing all
of the members of eac h subgroup.

A p rediction m odel for

the likelihood of additional alco h o l - r e l a t e d crashes within
each subgroup was d e v eloped from the data file.

30

26
The study reac h e d these conclusions

from an analysis

of the data:
1.

Predictive models

can be dev e l o p e d using information

available to alcohol and driver p r o g r a m a d m i n i s t r a t o r s .
2.

A benefit accrues

in terms of hig h e r p r e d i c t e d

a l c o h o l -related crash probabilities by d e v e l o p i n g several
models

for individual high-risk groups over d e v e l o p i n g just

one mod el for the general population as a whole.
3.

The models

are reasonable p r e d i c t o r s of alcohol-

related crash experience
risk,

in terms of rank i n g subgroups by

even when tested in a prospective sense of p r e d i c t i n g

a one-y ear crash experience.
4.
events

A l c o h o l - r e l a t e d crashes are suc h low p r o b a b i l i t y

in the general dri v i n g p o pulation that,

even when

a pe r s o n is identified w i t h a risk as m u c h as 20 times greater
than average,
ment

the p r o b a b i l i t y of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d c rash i n v o l v e ­

in the next year is still less than
5.

Potential cost effectiveness

.08.

for co u n t e r m e a s u r e

programs wit h limited a l cohol-related c rash red u c t i o n ability
can be demonstrated b y applying them to the h igh risk s u b ­
groups

identified in the models.
6.

Currently,

few sound evaluation d o c u m e n t i n g the

true traffic safety benefits of alcohol counterm e a s u r e s
are available.

31

The authors of the study concluded w i t h several r e c o m ­
mendations,

two of w h i c h are cited b e l o w as a result of

their significance to this dissertation study.

27
1.

In applic a t i o n of the models,

risk subgroups

(e.g.,

grouping of high-

the 25 percent highest risk subgroups)

wit h i n a h i g h - r i s k group should be used for countermeasure
implementation.

This

increases the number of individuals

a f f ected b e y o n d that w h i c h w o u l d occur when just a single
hig h - r i s k subgr o u p is used.
2.

C o n s i d e r a t i o n should be given to d eveloping models

d e s igned to be p r e d i c t i v e of two year alcohol-related crash
probabilities.

It is likely that by using this approach,

h i g h - r i s k subgroups could be identified w i t h p r edictor p r o ­
b a bilities

higher than those attained for the one-year period.

A pe r i o d longer than two years

is p r o bably not advisable

beca u s e coun t e r m e a s u r e s w h i c h might be applied as a result
of the m o d e l i n g outputs

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a l l y do not have an

e s t i m a t e d p e r i o d of e f f e ctiveness

longer than two years.

32

A l t h o u g h this study has signi f i c a n t l y contributed to
the u n d e r s t a n d i n g of high-risk driving subgroups,
the author's

it was

opinion that m u c h yet needs to be done.

Additionally,

Wilk i n s reports that alcoholics have

2.5 times as m a n y traffic accidents
33
viction rate of n o n - a l c o h o l i c s .

and nine times the conJoscelyn,

Maickel,

and

G o l d e n b a u m in their Department of Transportation report
summ a r y reac h e d this conclusion:
The Drinking Driver Control System has
two extra objectives in the case of the
p r o b l e m drink i n g driver.
It must identify
and screen the p r o b l e m drinking driver
from all other d r i nking drivers.
And
it must ensure that he receives a sanction
w h i c h will be appropriate to his
m e d i c a l and psych o l o g i c a l n e e d s , if he
is to be p r e v e n t e d from compulsively

28
re peating his alcohol

impaired behavior.

34

The need for intervention has lead to a significant
r e s e a r c h study b y Lyle

D. F i l k i n s , et al.

of alcohol abuse

and traffic safety w h i c h sought to identify c h aracteristics of
alcohol abusers w h i c h could be useful to intervention action
p rior to fatal a u tomobile accidents.
in W ayne County,
1969.

Mic h i g a n ,

The study was c o nducted

from J u l y , . 1967,

thro u g h August,

Four distinct p opulations p r o v i d e d the data base

for the study .

They were:

a sample of individuals who had been involved

in a fatal a utomobile

accident; a sample of alcoholics who

had bee n in treatment

in Flint,

Michigan; a sample c o nsisting

of drivers c o nvicted of driving under the influence of in­
toxi c a t i n g liquor

.(DUIL); and a sample obtained from the

M i c h i g a n S e c r e t a r y of State's driving records
as the M i c higan Driver Profile.
The sample of drivers

identified

35

involved in a fatal accident

was compa r e d to the other sample populations to identify
any common characteristics,
known alcoholics

in p a rticular the samples

and known DUIL offenders.

of

The M i c higan

Driver Profile sample repres e n t e d the driving b e h a v i o r of
the average M i c higan driver w h i c h served as the control
36
group.
A m ajor focus of the study was to search for the common
c h aracteristics w h i c h could be useful to court systems
tempting to intervene

in d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g behavior.

data yiel d e d a large number of significant

at­

The

findings; however,

only those p e r t a i n i n g to this dissertation study are cited.

29
Those significant
1.

findings are s ummarized as follows:

Forty-five percent of the fatalities had a BAC

of 0.10 percent or higher.
2.

Ages

16-25 years old were o ver-represented in

accidents.
3.

Fifty percent of the drivers

16-19 years old had

been d r i n k i n g prior to the accident.
4.

For fatalities,

dence of the greatest
5.

the ages 36-45 years old had e v i ­

d r i n k i n g involvement.

The number of fatalities showed a significant

increase over the w e e k - e n d • Onl y 24 percent of w e e k-end
drivers had not been d r i n k i n g as compared to 4 3 percent
d uring the week.
6.

Ve h i c u l a r speed increased w i t h an increase

b l o o d alcohol concentration,

in

and this was p a r t i c u l a r l y e v i ­

de n c e d at younger a g e s .
7.

Over half of the

fatalities sampled had committed

a d r i v i n g vio l a t i o n p rior to the crash.
8.

The number of d r i v i n g violations

found to be s i g n i f i c a n t l y a s sociated wit h

on record was
BAC; persons wit h

no v i olations were u n d e r - r e p r e s e n t e d at a BAC of 0.10 percent
or higher,

w hile those w i t h 4 or more violations were o v e r ­

represented .
9.

A rela t i o n s h i p was establ i s h e d between prior DUIL

c onvictions
10.
sample was

and BAC.
For a BAC of 0.15 percent or higher,
found to resemble the DUIL sample

the fatality

in prior driving

30
violations,

while the

lower BAC group of fatalities was

less similar.
11.

The DUIL sample had evidence of more traffic

accidents than the f a t a l i t y sample.
12.

The hig h e r BAC group,

0.15 percent or greater,

had similar m e a n number of convictions

for p rior DUIL offenses

as did the DUIL sample.
13.

C r a s h rates

for the sample of alcoholics

were

almost twice that of the M i c h i g a n Driver Profile sample.
14.

More crashes

for younger alcoholics

and d r i v i n g v iolations were found
(under age 45); in addition,

this

group e v i denced mor e DUIL convictions.
15.

O nly 25 perc e n t of the alcoholic sample had no

r ecord of accidents or traffic violations.
16.

A mong alcoholics a traffic conviction or accident

was followed b y a similar such event.
17.

Alcoh o l i c s who w i t h d r e w from group therapy within

3 days had the greatest number of traffic violations

and

accident r a t e s .
18.

A co r r e l a t i o n betw e e n traffic convictions

and

b e h a v i o r a l d e v i a n c y was established.
19.
years,

Fatalities

appear to p eak between ages

20-25

although at a BAC of 0.15 percent or greater the

peak occured b e t w e e n ages
alcoholic sample
20.

26-35 years.

While the DUIL and

fatalities pe a k e d between ages 36-55 years.

The m ean number of crashes was highest

DUIL sample,

w i t h the alcoholics

for the

and high BAC group b eing

31
similar,

while the Michi g a n Driver Profile and low BAC samples

d e m o n s t r a t e d the least mean number of accidents.

37

The results of this study indicate that more serious
d r i n k i n g behaviors
violations

are associated w i t h greater risk of traffic

and accidents.

The younger driver appears to

be o v e r - r e p r e s e n t e d among traffic fatalities,
BAC l e v e l s , and this
s p e e d i n g v i olations
There

but at lower

group evidenced the highest rates of
at the time of the fatal accident.

is evidence that the rates for fatal crashes peak

b efore a formal diagnosis

of a lcoholism is made,

e m p h a s i z i n g the need for early intervention.

further

Additionally,

those drivers w i t h the highest crash and traffic v i o lation
rates appear to be the most likely to drop out of group
therapy,

a m e t h o d often utilized in the rehabilitation of

DUIL offenders.
b y the study,

W h i l e numerous other conclusions were reac h e d

onl y those related to this dissertation s tudy

are cited ; however,

for a more complete analysis the reader

is r e f e r r e d to the origi n a l document.
The o v e r w h e l m i n g data demon s t r a t i n g alcohol involvement
in the traffic scene has generated three b road categories
of countermeasures:

enforcement,

engineering,

and education.

A rev i e w of some e nforcement countermeasures will be ad d r e s s e d
first.

Enforcement Countermeasures

Enforcement countermeasures generally rely on increased
law enforcement,

greater judicial concern,

and changes

in the

32
law by the l egislature to increase the s e v erity of the sanction
applied to con v i c t e d offenders.

DUIL laws are classified

as either the more t r a d i t i o n a l pr e s u m p t i v e laws or the less
common per se law.

3 y w a y of an abbrev i a t e d comparison,

presumptive laws p lace the burden of proof on demonstrating
that the driver's

m a n n e r of driving

was

by alcohol,

per se laws place

the burden of proof

on

while

indeed impaired

d e m o n s t r a t i n g that the driver did operate

at the p r o h i b i t e d

BAC.

Per se laws

the vehicle

p r e s u m a b l y remove the

ability of the dr i v e r to argue that he possesses special
abilities w h i c h a l l o w him to operate

in excess of the legally

p res c r i b e d limit w i t h no danger to society.
A number of states have changed their laws from p r e s u m p ­
tive to per se laws.

Michi g a n has begun e n f orcing a per

se law w h i c h sets the p r o h i b i t i v e BAC at 0.10 as of April
1, 1983.

The sanctions

license suspension,
viction;

sanctions

include m a n d a t o r y jail sentences,

and s c reening for a lcoholism upon c o n ­
increase

in s e v erity w i t h subsequent

convictions.
There are p r o b l e m s

in a t t e m p t i n g to legislate away

drinking drivers . The judicial system,

and to some extent

members of soci e t y are unw i l l i n g to mete out severe penalties,
and the effects of the legislation seem to be transitory,
evaporating w i t h time.
M u c h has b een m ade of two foreign attempts to reduce
drunk driv i n g t h r o u g h legislative effort;

the British.Road

Safety Act of 1967 and the S c a n d inavian drunk - d r i v i n g laws.

33
Scandinavian laws permit a BAC of 0.05 percent,
amount p e r m i t t e d by most

laws

half the

in the United States .

They

also permit ran d o m s t o pping of drivers to test for drunk
driv i n g violations

and penalties

and fines are severe

10 perc ent of p e r s o n a l income).
has been a two fold approach:

(up to

The Scandinavian effort
legal and educational.

The

results have bee n lauded b y some and criticized by others.
Wal l e r points
percent,

to the low rate of traffic fatalities,

ten

rela t e d to alcohol as p r o b a b l y attributable to

the attitude toward the problem.

38

Reed reports on a study

w h i c h used a time series analysis of drunk driving and traffic
accidents that could not substantiate any deterrent effect
39
from S c a n d inavian l a w s .
The E u r opean co u n t e r m e a s u r e
parent success

often cited for its a p ­

in at least t e m p o r a r i l y reducing drunk driving

is the B r i t i s h Road Sa f e t y Act of 1967.
the success

of the p r o g r a m to its wide publicity,

increased the publics'
However,

Reed attributes
which

p e r c e p t i o n of the risk of apprehension.

as that ris k of b e i n g caught diminished,

the effect

di s a p p e a r e d and d r u n k driv i n g returned to its previous
and e v e n t u a l l y e x c e e d e d it.

level

Similar results were also o b t ained

in Can a d a du r i n g the same time period as a result of e q u i v a ­
lent legislation.

Reed describes the only U.S.

that p r o d u c e d the same effect;

counter m e a s u r e

it was conducted at L a c kland

Air Force Base and p r o d u c e d stati s t i c a l l y significant results
in lowering accidents

and i n j u r i e s . ^

Reed reported on Alcohol Safety Action Projects
w h i c h pl a c e d their greatest emphasis
driver patrols.

(ASAP)

on increased drinking-

An e v a l u a t i o n of the King County,

Washi n g t o n

A SAP could not e s t a b l i s h any significant change in the rate
of accidents and injuries due to a l c ohol-related accidents.
A M i n n e s o t a ASAP was

able to e s t a b l i s h a substantial decrease

in a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d fatalities during the three year operation
of the p r o g r a m . ^
Jones and Joscelyn r e p orted on the results of 26 ASAPs
c o n d u c t e d around the U.S.

from 1972 to 1976.

have pr o v e n contradictory.

Evaluations

One evaluator concluded that

no s ign ificant effect of the projects can be demonstrated
to be due to anything other than chance.

In response,

the

N HTSA claimed that there was some evidence to support a
c laim of reduced fatalities,

and it went on to state that

e valuations ma y be insensitive to other subtle benefits
to society.

42

Reed con c l u d e d that the cost-benefit derxved

f rom AS A P c o u n t e r measures does not warrant their continuation
he stated that the m o n e y was p o o r l y spent.

Effects of the

43

Drinking Age on Traffic Fatalities

The one legal-en f o r c e m e n t countermeasure,
r e d u c i n g a l c o h o l - i n v o l v e d traffic fatalities,

aimed at

that appears

to have wo r k e d is the raising of the legal drinking age
in those states that had p r e v i o u s l y lowered the drinking
age.

Three states,

Maine,

Michigan,

and Vermont,

have c o n ­

d ucted extensive r e s e a r c h studies w h i c h m e a s u r e d the effect

35
of the legal d r i n k i n g age on traffic fatalities.

The High w a y

Safety Research Institute of the U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan
has been involved in the evalu a t i o n of y o u thful alcoholrelated crashes.

Douglass,

et al.

noted an increase

in auto crashes

(89) during the sample p e r i o d

conducted
(4,600)

(1972-1975)

a study that

and fatalities
to be attributable

to alcohol c o n s u m p t i o n as a result of the lowering the legal
drinking age to 18.
a significant

The s tudy also noted that there was

increase

m

consum p t i o n of draft beer.

44

In a later r e v i e w Douglass found that between 10 percent
and 26 percent of the
young drivers

increase

in the traffic fatalities

in M i c h i g a n and Maine was d i r e c t l y attributable

to a lowering of the legal d r i n k i n g age.
t ablished a 2 percent
in Vermont to be
drinking age.

among

45

increase

Studies have e s ­

in youth traffic fatalities

in r e s p o n s e to a lowering of the legal
O t h e r c o m p a rative studies betw e e n states

where the legal d r i n k i n g age was

lowered and states where

the legal d r i n k i n g age r e m a i n e d at status quo have p r o duced
s tati s t i c a l l y s i g n i ficant

increases

in traffic fatalities.

Conti n u i n g i n v e s t i g a t i o n b y the HSRI has further estimated
that the level of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d traffic fatalities was
17 percent higher than e x p e c t e d during the four years
lowing the change

in the legal drinking age.

fol­

Douglass c o n ­

cluded that:
Scientific r e s e a r c h on lower legal drinking
ages in most places has concluded that
young drivers are more likely to become
involved in a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d traffic
collisions.
Not all places responded

36
to l o w e r i n g the drinking age in the
s ame w a y .^ °

Other Variables

and Youthful Traffic Accidents

As was r e v i e w e d earlier in this chapter,

young drivers

are in general o v e r r e p r e s e n t e d in traffic fatalities
lower BAC levels.

at

The factors r epresented in the r e l a t i o n ­

ship betw e e n y o u t h f u l drinking and traffic fatalities

have

been r e s e a r c h e d by numerous studies and have arrived at
similar conclusions.

Schuman and Pelz and others

found

m a n y reasons that might have caused the mor t a l i t y rate to
be twice as h i g h for 18 to 20 year olds as they are for
40 year olds .

Among

them

d riv i n g after drinking.
thesis,

47

are

inexperience

Bishop,

and

in a study for his d o c toral

found alcohol to be involved in a number of accidents

he r e v iewed . Most often the young driver o v e r-estimated
the number of drinks

it would take to impair ability.

48

A 1970 s tudy of 31 fatal crashes by Boston Unive r s i t y found
that

in 19 single car crashes, alcohol

of the deaths.

The report concludes:

was

involved in 16

"It is also u n q u e s t i o n ­

able that the effect of low levels of alcohol are significant
in young drivers
in these cases . "

and teenagers,
49

such as those often involved

Douglass reported on c o n t radictory studies

some of w h i c h suggest that academic ability,
time employment,

early f u l l ­

and juvenile offenses are related to crash

involvement,

w hile other studies have refuted the claim.

In addition,

other studies claim subjects

have experi e n c e d

37
personal and social problems and come from lower socioeconomic
levels.
A l t h o u g h e v i d e n c e suggests that it is b e c oming in­
crea s i n g l y p o s s i b l e to predict what subgroup of young drivers
is most likely to b e c o m e involved in an alcohol-related
crash,

the q u e stion remains as to what can be done to identify

individuals and then alter the b e h avior pattern.

Douglass

reported that seve r a l studies advanced these conclusions:
1.

A large number of y oung drivers w i t h multiple

d riving viola t i o n s score high on the Michigan Alcohol Screening
Test

(a scr e e n i n g p r o c e d u r e to determine the level of

p r o b l e m d r i n k i n g behavior).
2.

Y outh i n c r e a s i n g l y derive

information about alcohol

from p e e r s .
3.

Warnings

fessional drivers
4.

from alcoholics,

celebrities,

and p r o ­

have little effect on youth.

The use of r a t ional education on prob l e m drinkers

is likely to be ineffective.
5.

Young drivers are likely to be underrepresented

in arrests for DUIL.
6.

Young drivers are more likely to drop out of

alcohol e d u cation programs.

51

A l t h o u g h the one legal countermeasure that seems to
ensure a re d u c t i o n

in alcohol involvement among young drivers

is raising the legal d r i nking age,

there have been other

proposals w h i c h limit the exposure of young drivers,
as:

re s t r i c t i n g the time pe r m i t t e d to drive,

such

and raising

38
the age for first licensing all of w h i c h w o u l d p r o b a b l y
result in a crash reduction,
to young drivers

but at what

and their families.

inconvenience

52

E n g i n e e r i n g Countermeasures

The b road c a t e g o r y that has received the least amount
of attention as a viable c o u ntermeasure is engineering.
The cost of en g i n e e r i n g changes and adaptations when initially
viewed m a y appear high;
a sizable savings

however,

the benefits represent

in lives and costs

of drunk-driving.

incurred as a consequence

The costs of e ngineering measures when

p r o-rated over m a n y years w o u l d be an infinitisimally small
amount to society.
In his boo k Roberts comments on the feasibility of
using an alcohol- s e n s i t i v e device to sniff the inside air
of a vehicle to det e r m i n e the degree of sobriety of the
driver.

53

a device

Roberts m a y have viewed the p o tential of such
in a light - h e a r t e d manner,

but Jones and Joscelyn

reported on such a device w i t h a more serious tone.
only was a "breath sniffer"
engineering devices

such as:

Not

r e p orted on, but so were other
educational testers to be

used by a driver to test for one's own sobriety,

and drunk

driving w a r n i n g systems w h i c h flash lights or b low the
horn when the driver is impaired b y alcohol.
most feasible sys t e m is an automatic

Perhaps the

interlock system w h i c h

prevents the driver from starting the vehicle.

54

39
Jones and Joscelyn also report on drugs that been
tested as p o t e n t i a l

"sobering up" pills.

The d rug L-dopa,

which is c u rrently use d to treat Parkinson's

Disease,

has

the ability to improve perfor m a n c e b y impaired individuals;
unfortunately,

it.has unpleasant side effects

and vomiting.

For now,

including nausea

no such "sobering up" pill exists.

There is little doubt b y those individuals

55

interested

in highway traffic s a f e t y that the one countermeasure that
would s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduce d e a t h and injury as a result of
drunk-driving or any other cause is the use of occupant s e a t ­
belts

(as of July 1,

seatbelt use).

1985 Michi g a n mandates

Williford,

drivers and p a s s e n g e r s
percent.

front passenger

et al. report that the number of

c u r r e n t l y using seatbelts

If it c ould be increased to 20 percent,

estimated that 4,000

is about
it is

lives per year could be saved.

also report that the cost of passive seatbelt
would add $200 to $300 per unit,
considering total v e h i c l e cost,

11

The authors

interlock systems

an insignificant

amount when

but un n e c e s s a r y if all

operators chose to w e a r the p r e s e n t l y installed seatbelts.

56

E d u c a t i o n a l Countermeasures

Presently,

great reliance has bee n placed on a large

number of programs that fall into the b road categ o r y of education.
Educational programs have used mass m e d i a approaches
act the d r i n k i n g - d r i v e r .
academic,

to c o u n t e r ­

They have also enlisted traditional

as wel l as non- t r a d i t i o n a l school settings,

and

they have de v e l o p e d r e m edial programs to counter the drinking-

40
Most programs have met o n l y limited

driver after conviction.
success,

or because of poor or inadequate e v a l u a t i o n can

not be said to have provided any element of s u c c e s s .
In a paper p r e s e n t e d to the N a t ional Conf e r e n c e of
State Legislatures,
education programs

Marshall stated that the purp o s e of
should be to create an a t mosphere

in

which d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g is a s o c ially una c c e p t a b l e form of
behavior.

M a r shall went on to say that the sanctions to

be imposed should be known b y all memb e r s of soci e t y and
accepted as a general deterrence.

In addition,

there is

a need to develop appropriate referral procedures,
as r e s e a r c h to v a l idate diagnostic criteria.

as well

57

Dunn stated the NHTSA's position on d e s irable c o u n t e r ­
measures

for drinking-driving.

He e m p h a s i z e d the need for

local c o m munity action programs t h r o u g h pursuit of six major
points:
1.

General deterrence aimed at the m a j o r i t y of drunk

drivers who are never arrested

(the chance of arrest

lies

somewhere betw e e n 1/500 and 1/2,000).
2.

C o m m u n i t y focus

3.

Systems a p p roach w h i c h integrates

all interested agencies
education,
4.

- local programs.

(i.e., prosecutor,

and coordinates
enforcement,

etc.).
Financial Self-S u f f i c i e n c y - c o nvicted offenders

support.
5.
support.

Citizen Support - e n l isting c o m m u n i t y / c i t i z e n

41
6.

Education/Prevention

(long term)

c h a nging attitudes

by soci e t y toward drinking-driving.
Dunn further states:
This a p p r o a c h to the d r i nking driver
p r o b l e m is intended to effect the heavy
(problem) drinker and at the same time,
have m a x i m u m impact in det e r r i n g the
less heavy (social) drinker from driving
i n t o x i c a t e d .58
M any states have instituted r e m edial programs

for

those c o n victed of drunk driving.

One such p r o g r a m prev i o u s l y

alluded to was the Fairfax County,

V i r g i n i a ASAP.

Landstreet

pointed out the need to p r o p e r l y diagnose and treat the
offender in order to obtain m a x i m u m impact.

He states that

the premise of the p r o g r a m was that social drinkers reacted
p o s i t i v e l y to license s u spension while Type
drinkers)

and Type III

(alcoholics)

II

(pre-problem

reac t e d n e g a t i v e l y to

license s u spension and re s p o n d e d more p o s i t i v e l y to long
term therapy.

Social drinkers were treated w i t h a series

of eight w e e k l y meetings dealing w i t h alcohol and highway
safety.

The p r e - p r o b l e m drinker was dealt w i t h in a series

of ten w e e k l y meetings w h i c h were p a r t i a l l y didactic and
p a r t i a l l y encounter.

The final type,

the alcoholic,

was

found to respond most p o s i t i v e l y to the Alcoholics Anonymous
approach. ^
The state of C a l i f o r n i a r e c e n t l y tried a new approach
to co n f r o n t i n g repeat DUIL offenders.
lature p r e p a r e d b y Hagen,
evaluated the o u t c o m e s .

et al.

A report to the l e g i s ­

outlined the approach and

The approach r e q u i r e d drivers c o n ­

v icted of drunk driv i n g more than once to p a r t i cipate

in

42
a 12-month alcohol abuse treatment program.

The prog r a m

included four key elements:
1.

The close supervision of the p a r t i cipants through

personal interviews at least e v e r y other week.
2.

The need for a v a r i e t y of treatment services with

capability of referral for treatment.
3.

A driver m a y p a r t i c i p a t e o n l y once in four years.

4.

Establish the ability to m o n i t o r all participants.

60

While the prog r a m upon e v aluation could not be shown to
have proven any better than e x i s t i n g sanctions,

the authors

put forth several r e c o m m e ndations to improve diagnosis,
selection,

and assignment to treatment m o dalities were made

by the a u t h o r s .

Drivers con v i c t e d of d runk driv i n g for the

first time were not included in the program,

but were referred

to the established Driver Improvement Course w h i c h includes
alcohol and highway safety as a part of its curriculum.
Jones and Joscelyn in their s u m m a r y and conclusions
p ointed out the ASAP programs

sought to integrate the prog r a m

into a systems approach w h i c h t r e a t e d severe alcoholics
as a different en t i t y form social drinkers.

61

The writers

refer to the lack of quality eval u a t i o n techniques as the
largest drawback to arriving at any c o nvincing conclusion
about ASAP outcomes;

furthermore,

evaluated for short term effects

programs

are generally

and not long term results.

A more r e c e n t l y r e p orted on r e m e d i a l p r o g r a m is the
New York State d r i nking driver p r o g r a m
et al.

(D D P ) cited by Williford,

In 1982 a p p r o x i m a t e l y 60 percent of those convicted

43
of drunk driving in New York State p a r t i c i p a t e d in the p r o ­
gram.

The prog r a m serves a dual role of p r oviding e ducational

information

and serving as a screening device and referral

source for the more ser i o u s l y impaired drivers.

The p r o g r a m

is v o l u n t a r y on the part of the participants who are given
information and insight

into drinking-driving.

The prog r a m

has received strong support from m a n y of the participants
who have s u ggested its expansion into p r e - l i c e n s i n g phases
of high way safety education.

The authors suggest that

it

is quite feasible that such a p r o g r a m can become part of
standard high school health curriculum,
of driver education.

as wel l as a part

62

A new a p p roach to drinking driver education has evolved
out of the NHTSA's s p o nsored Safe Performance C u r r i c u l u m
tested in Georgia.

Designed to be an elite example of driver

educati on,the p r o g r a m focused on v i olation and accident
rates.

One of the p r e l i m i n a r y results reported on

not c o n c l u s i v e l y as of yet)
other differences,

seems to demonstrate that among

students rec e i v i n g the most s o p h isticated

instruction have had less drunk driving arrests.
evaluation

awaits

the ran dom groups,

(although

The final

complete tabulation of the data between
but

it is hoped that the p r e l i m i n a r y

data will be verifiable.

63

44
Studies on the Drinking Behavior
of the General Population

A number of methods are used to determine the p r evalence
of d r i nking and its subsequent alcohol problems,
methods
1.
rates

among these

are:
The Jellinek me t h o d w h i c h is b ased on m o r t a l i t y

from liver cirrohosis.
2.

The per capita met h o d dev e l o p e d b y L e d ermann .

This me t h o d is popu l a r beca u s e of its simplicity.
3.

Rates in clinical populations derived from agency

and hospital records.
4.

The com m u n i t y survey appro a c h w h i c h is b a s e d on

e p i demiological methods ; there

is some advantage to this

method.
E ach me t h o d has its subsequent drawbacks,

but these are

not discussed here . The onl y concern is for identifying
the different m e t h o d o l o g i e s that do exist.
Recently Auth and W a r h e i t r e v i e w e d studies on p r evalence
rates of prob l e m d r i n k i n g and alcoholism.

The authors were

concerned w ith three categories of drinkers;
the heavy drinkers,
drinkers represent
older.

the abstainers,

and the p r o b l e m drinkers.

The prob l e m

5-10 percent of American drinkers

The authors

found general agreement

that

18 years or

alcohol users

high risk to become p r o b l e m drinkers were males b e t w e e n 18 to
25 or females ages 30 to 40 who are single or d i v orced and
,

,

.

had no religious ties.

68

45
Cahalan and Room reported on the drinking problems
of males age 21 to 59 and found problems were e s p e c i a l l y
prevalent among the 21 to 24 year olds.
unstable marital,
In addition,

home,

They found low SES;

and wor k histories

to be of importance.

other c h a racteristics were identified from

longitudinal studies of p r o b l e m d r i n k e r s .

These are:

hood unhappiness,

and y o u thful

acting out.

father's heavy drinking,

child­

Caha l a n and Room d e termined that there is a

definite need for more longitudinal studies.
The U.S.

69

Department of He a l t h and Human Services

Statistical C o m p e n d i u m on Alcohol and Health s u mmarized
m a n y studies and dat a gathering reports related to d r i nking
in America.
and females

R e viewing d r i nking statistics
indicates

that for males,

for b o t h male

heaviest d r i nking

occurs between the ages of 21 to 50 years,

while for females

the heaviest d r i n k i n g occurs between 31 to 50 years of age.
The number of r e p o r t e d abstainers
the ages

is lowest b e t w e e n

18 to 20 years old, while for females the smallest

p e rcent age of abstainers
old.

for males

is between ages 21 to 25 years

The total sample percentages

25 percent are abstainers

indicate that among males

and 20 percent heavy drinkers,

and for females 40 percent report b eing abstainers
percent are c l a s s i f i e d as heavy drinkers.

and 5

70

A review of eight national surveys covering the pe r i o d
1971 through 1979 shows that the percentage of drinkers
in the four d r i nking categories of abstainer,

light,

moderate,

and heavier r e m ained r e l a t i v e l y stable over the sampling

46
period for the total sample of b o t h male and females.
Rachal and Associates
10-12,

71

found that among students,

grade

over 32 percent could be c o nsidered as either m o derate/

heavier drinkers or heavier drinkers.

72

Their study defined

dr i nking b e h a v i o r in terms of q u a n t i t y - - f r e q u e n c y , that

is

the amount c o n sumed per occasion and the number of occasions
per month.

Young drinkers

in these categories consumed alcohol

at least 3 or 4 times per month.
1.85 ounces of pure ethanol
day w h i c h translates

The heavier drinkers

(grain or bever a g e alcohol per

into almost 4 drinks of 100 proof

percent pure alcohol)

averaged

liquor per day.

73

(50

Rachal and Associates

compared their data to other cros s - s e c t i o n a l studies and
found comparable, r e s u l t s .

The data lends credence to the

concept that a s i g n i f i c a n t l y large port i o n of high school
students

in the Un i t e d States consume large quantities of

alcoholic beverages

on a routine basis.

74

The Rachal studies support the belief that 80 percent
of high school youth have some experience wit h alcohol,
and that the rate has s t a b i l i z e d but at a higher percentage
than p r e v i o u s l y found.
betw e e n ages
than girls;
do drink,
in on boys

Adolescent d r i nking increases r a p i d l y

13 to 15 and then slows down.
however,

and there

Boys drink more

4 out of 5 tenth to twelfth grade girls
is some evidence that girls are closing-

in their d r i n k i n g behavior.

75

Noble r e v i e w e d several significant studies designed
to e s t a b l i s h d r i n k i n g preva l e n c e rates among young people.

The r e s u l t s - a r e similar to those reported p r e v i o u s l y in
this chapter.

Drinking rates rose r a p i d l y between 1936

and 1965 and then the rate of increase .
’rose slowly.
The y found more college drinkers than high school
drinkers,
drinkers

but this d i fference has lessened.
in all parts of the country

There are more

except the South.

The p e r c e n t a g e of y o u t h re p o r t i n g b e i n g drunk rose s i g n i f i ­
cantly betw e e n the years
of intoxication.

1966 and 1975,

as did the fre q u e n c y

The d i s c r e p a n c y between the number of

college men and women who drink is small, wit h only a 4 p e r ­
cent difference.

The frequency of drink i n g and intoxication

among c ollege students

is higher than high school students

and has risen over the past twenty-five years.

There appears

to be no d ifference between college and non-college young
people of similar age in their drinking frequency.

The

ex c eption is w i t h m i l i t a r y p e rsonnel who approach d r i n k i n g
rates of n e a r l y 100 percent
However,

for bot h males

and females.

y oung people d rink less reg u l a r l y than older people,

but do tend to consume a larger amount on a d r i nking occasion.
Schuckit found that youthful drink i n g seems to have
followed a similar patt e r n as adult drinkers.

W here adults

drank 2 gallons per capita in 1 946,this rate had risen to
2.68 gallons per capita in 1976.

He reports that 80-90

percent of the high school students have drank at least
once before graduating,
grade level,

but

and that this rate increases w i t h

is similar for boys and girls.

Schuckit

also found that y outh have a p r eference for wine and beer

48
over hard

liquor;

and as for drink i n g frequency,

he reports

somewhere b e t w e e n 10-38 percent of the students drink once
a week,

and 10 p e r c e n t of b o t h boys and girls report drinking

daily.

The average t e e n a g e r drinks

low to moderate amounts

appro x i m a t e l y once a m o n t h to once a week.

77

In summary,

there seems to be little argument that

young people ages

25 and under drink significant amounts

of alcohol w i t h a r e l a t i v e l y high rate of frequency.

However,

knowing the q u a n t i t y f r e q u e n c y does not define the level
of d ysfunction w h i c h is indicative of an abuse problem,
although studies

indicate that there are common characteristics

of youth who m ight be

i d entified as having an abuse problem.

C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Young Drinkers

Studies have found numerous

factors

volved in y o u thful d r i n k i n g patterns •
of first drink,

rel i g i o u s preference,

drinking behavior,
behavior.
ligious

78

p a r e n t a l attitude,

appear to be i n ­

Among them are age
r e l i g i o u s i t y , parental
and peer group drinking

Rachal and Associates report that

involvement,

deviance,

"...

re­

and school achievement dis-

criminated r e l i a b l y a m o n g abstainers,

users,

and misusers."

79

O ther authors have r e p orted on the settings within
w h i c h young pe o p l e are most
behavior.

likely to engage

Harf o r d and Spiegler report that the most frequent

adolescent d r i n k i n g s e t t i n g is the situation
adult

in drinking

is present,

s u c h as at a party.

in w h i c h no

These authors

frequent drinkers d r i n k w i t h their p e e r s , while

found

infrequent

49
drinkers

80

engage in d r i n k i n g b e h a v i o r wit h others

than p e e r s .

Rooney has s t u d i e d the per c e i v e d differences of s t a n ­
dards for alcohol use among American youth.

His sample

of ne a r l y 5,000 high school seniors was drawn from public
and Catholic schools

in the northeast region of the United

States.

indicate that nearly two-thirds of

The results

the students who r e s p o n d e d showed approval for the use of
beer

and saw nearly three-quarters of their closest friends

and ei g h t y percent of the students
approving of the use of beer.

in school as similarily

In a series of questions

r e garding problems r e s u l t i n g from d r i nking almost 63 percent
of the respondents r e p o r t e d having at least one of the p r o ­
blems.

The largest percentage,

drinking sprees,

42.9 percent,

occurred wit h

w hile the smallest percentage,

3.7 percent,

was reported for b e i n g brought before school authorities.
Other categories r e p r e s e n t e d were:
15.7 percent;

caused accident or injury,

stopped by the police,

fered w i t h p r e p a r a t i o n for class,

13.7 percent;

13.5 percent.

Using m u l tiple r e gression techniques,
to explain the f o llowing variances

and inter-

81

Rooney was able

for the number of alcohol

problems by p e r c e i v e d l iberality of standards of self and
references sources reg a r d i n g beer u s e : ^
Total R
(1 ) close friends

0.140

(2 ) other friends

0.109

(3) father

0.110

(4) mother

0.108

(5) all independent variables

0 .155

2

R ooney concludes

that

"...

50
students p e r c e i v e d the greatest

degree of s i m i l a r i t y of standards

for beer use w i t h their

close friends and exper i e n c e an increase in alcohol-related
problems bey o n d the p h y s i c a l effect of the b e v erage
inasm u c h as the y depart

from the standards of their f r i e n d s ."

As to the nature of alcohol related problems,

the most t r o u b l e ­

some problems occur whe n the p e r ceived distance
betw e e n

itself

increases

individual d r i n k i n g behavior and the norms of friends.

R ooney concludes

that adolescents are subject to parental

influences whe n long term decisions are to be made and in­
f l u enced more by peers when there is a short term immediate
decis i o n to be made.
Biddle,
students.

83

et a l . r e p o r t e d on a survey of 14 9 m idwestern

Their results showed that students drank because

they either liked d r i n k i n g or refrained because they disliked
drinking.

Respondents also seemed less aware of the p o t e n ­

tial consequences of h eavy drinking.

Adolescents

again

d e m o n s t r a t e d that t h e y were more likely to drink if their
friends drank and less
were n o n d r i n k e r s .

likely to drink if their friends

I ndividual drinking b e h avior is more i n ­

fluenced b y one's own p e r sonal preferences
any other variable.

The conclusions were that adolescent

d r i n k i n g is influ e n c e d b y age,
most

and norms than by

race,

and social class,

and

influenced b y i n t e r nalized parental and peer pressures.

84

51
Early Drinking and Subsequent Alcohol Problems

Filstead,

w r i t i n g on a dolescence and alcohol,

discusses

the e t i o l o g y and p r e v a l e n c e of teenage alcohol use.
the p r o b l e m of teenage alcoholism,

About

Filstead had this to say:

The e t i ology of a l c o h o l i s m is not clearly
established; consequently, the relationship
between adolescent d r i nking and a l coholism
is not clear.
This has led to an ongoing
debate as to the existence of adolescent
alcoholism.
Are there teenage alcoholics?
W h i l e there is ample evidence c o ncerning
the psychological, social, and i n t e r p e r ­
sonal d i s r u p t i o n en c o u n t e r e d b y adolescents
who misuse alcohol, the p h y s i c a l c o n s e ­
quences of mi s u s e are minimal.
Even
whe n there are p h y s i o l o g i c a l consequences,
adolescents o n l y r a r e l y sho w p h y sical
dependence on a l c o h o l .
Filstead goes on to summarize some of the significant
findings of Blane and Hewitt

in their data collections.

He states that they found:
1.

There has b ee n no change

in c onsumption of teenagers

betw e e n 1946-1975.
2.

There are no more teenagers d r i n k i n g than p r e v i o u s l y

reported.
3.

Boys d rink earlier than girls and experience more

problems.
4.
stable,

The age of first d r i nking e x perience has remained
but there has bee n a trend toward earlier age of

consumption.
5.

There has been no shift in drunkeness or its con-

sequences druing the per i o d 1946-1975.

86

52
Filstead's report on his surveys of teenage drinking found
that 5 percent of hig h school students have drinking behavior
similar to teenagers

in treatment.

Another 19 percent use

alcohol in such a ma n n e r as to have e ncountered substantial
problems.

Filstead found that w h i l e 5 percent reported

no use of alcohol,

another 71 percent reported use but w ith

no subsequent problems.

87

Blane r e p o r t e d on his su r v e y of the drinking behaviors
of delinquent and nondel i n q u e n t adolescent males.

From

the results he was able to report that nonpr o b l e m drinkers
drink less than p r o b l e m drinkers d i s r e g a r d i n g de l i n q u e n c y
status.

More p r o b l e m d r i nking delinquents perceive themselves

as having a p r o b l e m than p r o b l e m d r i n k i n g nondelinquents.
Delinquent p r o b l e m drinkers use m ore illicit drugs of all
kinds,

have fewer intact families,

allowed to d rink b y parents,

were less likely to be

and have more social p a thology

than n o n d e l i n q u e n t s .
In addition,

Blane r e p o r t e d that delinquent prob l e m

drinkers had w i d e r social and familial pathology,
more at one time and also drink more frequently,
more negative consequences,

family setting.

suffer

and achieve less in school

are often one grade b e h i n d ) .
delinquent p r o b l e m drinkers

drink

(they

Blane also determined that

come from a non-traditional

88

Gomberg has also studied the characteristics of young
male alcoholics

and has r e p orted on the findings.

are consistent w i t h the findings of previous
alcoholics

The results

studies.

seem to have started d r i nking and become

Younger

intoxicated

53
at an e a r l y age.

The y have bee n more

drugs other than alcohol.
family structure,
social behaviors.

involved w i t h illicit

The y report more p a t r i a r c h a l

as well as more r e b e l l i o u s n e s s

and a n t i ­

Young alcoholics wil l do mor e drinking

in public places and in automobiles than older diagnosed
alcoholics.

The younger alcoholic also r e p o r t e d more c h i l d ­

hood problems,

such as h y p e r a c t i v i t y and nailbiting,

which

is consistent w i t h their aggressive b e h a v i o r patterns.
Wilsnack,

et al.

89

focused their s tudy on c h a r a c t e r i s ­

tics of young women w hose father had b een alcoholic.

The

researc hers were concerned w i t h a number of specific behaviors.
They found that daughters of alcoholics had higher quantityf r e quency rates of drink i n g than the controls,

and that

this was p a r t i c u l a r i l y significant

if beer consum p t i o n was

the tested variable.

the alcoholic's daughters

reported drinking,

Importantly,

at least in part,

problems or pressures.

However,

in respo n s e to p e r sonal

there was no significant

evidence to suggest that daughters of alcoholics differ
from controls
1
4
or sexuality.
-

-

in levels of depression,

s e x -role identification,

9 0

The M o r t i m e r-Filkins

Test

I ntroduction

The M o rtimer-Filkins Test served as the criterion
measure for this study.

The M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test was d e ­

velo p e d under contract from the United States

Department

54
of T r a nsportation National H i g h w a y Traffic Safety A d m i n i s ­
tration to the U n i v e r s i t y of M i c higan H i g h w a y Safety Research
Institute during the Alcohol Safety Action Programs.
test was

The

intended to provide a means to diagnose p r o b l e m

d r i nking behavior

in a popu l a t i o n of OUIL offenders

and

be simplistic enough to be used w i t h little prior training.
The Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test consists of a questionaire
and interview w h i c h can be used s e p a r a t e l y or together
(see A p p endix C) .

Eac h has

its own set o-f cut-off scores

for d e t e r mining the level of p r o b l e m classification.
the procedure recommends

the use of b o t h the questionaire

and interview during the assessment process.
can be employed d i r e c t l y by the assessor
report format.

However,

The questionaire

or in a self-

The int e r v i e w is admi n i s t e r e d d i r e c t l y by

the assessor to the subject.

The scoring procedure combines

the sum for b o t h the questionaire and the interview to arrive
at the total score used to determine the level of prob l e m
drinking.

Design and S tatistical Analysis

Mortimer has dis c u s s e d the methods b y w h i c h the test
was developed and the r e l i a b i l i t y - v a l i d i t y determined.

91

An initial literature review of studies related to the
assessment of p r o b l e m d r i nking was conducted.
to direct assessment procedures,
for their applicability.

In addition

other measures were

From the literature review,

identified
452

55
test

items were developed.

The 452 items were reduced to

135 items and then further r e d u c e d to the final 58 items
as a result of pilot studies.
along a similar format;

245

The i n terview was developed

items were reduced to 66 items.

The intent of the int e r v i e w is to develop a composite picture
of the subject.

The final i n t e r v i e w and questionaire was

then submitted to s t a t i s t i c a l analysis.
A r e s earch s t u d y using an e x p e r imental group of known
alcoholics and a control group were adm i n i s t e r e d the test.
The statistical analysis of the r e l i a b i l i t y utilized splithalf correlation coefficients
Brown formula.

cor r e c t e d b y the Spearman-

The results d e m o n s t r a t e d that the total

score r e l i a bility was

0.976.

V a l i d i t y was tested by use

of point bi-serial c o r r e l a t i o n coefficients.

The results

d e m o n strated a total score c o e f f icient of 0.917.
q u e s t i o n a i r e - i n t e r v i e w w e i g h t e d sum was 0.921.

A combined

92

A l l i e d R e s e a r c h Studies

M o r timer r e p orted on field studies utilizing the MortimerFilkins Test.

The e x t e r n a l c r i t e r i a used to determine the

level of p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n were b l o o d alcohol c o n c e n ­
tration at the time of arrest,

prior arrests

the number of prior a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d offenses.

for DUIL,

W hile these

criteria are recog n i z e d as b e i n g less than perfect,
are the best available.

The studies

cut-off scores could be lowered,

and

they

indicated that the

but at the cost of increasing

56
the number of false positives

among the p r o b l e m drinkers.

93

M o r t i m e r states that the rationale for reduc i n g the c u t ­
off scores

is b ased on the belief that 50 percent of the

DUIL p o p u l a t i o n are p r o b l e m drinkers.
Mo r timer has r e p o r t e d on the
use of the M o r t i m er-Filkins Test.

94

limited r e s ponse to the
He states that there have

been thousands of individuals who have undergone the assessment
w i t h s a t i s f a c t o r y results.

One major study c o m pared b lood

alcohol conce n t r a t i o n at the time of arrest,

prior DUIL offenses,

and total score on the test to determine the p r o b a b i l i t y
of a subsequent r e c i d i v i s m b y the driver.

Results demo n s t r a t e d

that prior DUIL offenses were as good as b lood alcohol c o n ­
c e ntration and the total score on the test,

or all three

indicators taken together at p r e d i c t i n g r e c i d i v i s m

(rearrest).

The study indicated that for individuals without p r i o r DUIL
offenses, the

total score on the test was a sufficient pre-

d ictor of recidivism.

The study utilized 9,900 cases.

95

S u p p l e m e n t a r y Information
P r e sented for the Assessor

The p r o cedure

is co n s t r u c t e d in a manner w h i c h assists

in assessing the subject's relevant background.
sheet

A tally

is p r o vided to record b l o o d alcohol concentration,

various types of driv i n g offenses,
motor vehicle accidents,
In addition,

reckless driv i n g offenses,

as well as the criminal history.

the questionaire and interview assess p e r s o n a l i t y

57
traits and drinking b e h a v i o r p e rtinent to the assessment.
The data is meant as an adjunct to the total score to assist
in developing a more complete subject profile.
As part of the contract to develop the M o r t i m er-Filkins
Test,

three instructional volumes were prepared.

In Volume

I, the M a n u a l , the authors r e f e r r e d to the value of utilizing
blood alcohol conce n t r a t i o n du r i n g the assessment.

They

report that it w o u l d be d i fficult to obtain a b l o o d alcohol
concentration of 0.10 percent and be a m o d e r a t e drinker,
likewise b lood alcohol c o n c entrations of 0.25 percent or
higher are indicative of p r o b l e m drinking.
Various

96

factors known to influence b l o o d alcohol c o n ­

centration at any given, time,
on driving are cited.

as w ell as the effect of alcohol

The authors present a strong case

to support the p o s ition that b l o o d alcohol c o n c entration
is an indicator of p r o b l e m drinking.
Volume

I reviews

97

the r a t ionale for uti l i z i n g the s u b ­

ject's driving record as part of the assessment of the level
of p r o b l e m drinking.
1.

The reasons are as follows:

Multiple arrests

for DUIL are strong indicators

of p r o b l e m drinking behavior.
2.

The number of motor vehi c l e accidents,

altho u g h

the number of m inor accidents m a y not be included in the
official record,
3.

indicates

a p r o b l e m w i t h alcohol.

The number of m o v i n g violations m a y indicate poor

driving behaviors r e s u l t i n g from the influence of alcohol.

58
Suspensions,

revocations,

and r e s t r i c t e d licenses

r e sulting from d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g are indicative of prob l e m
drinking.

The authors emphasize the v alue of the driving

record as a good source of indicators of p r o b l e m drinking.
V olume II,

Supplemental R e a d i n g s , p r o vides

for the selection of questionaire items,

98

the rationale

as w e l l as a re v i e w

of the body's response to alcohol and alcohol abuse.
Volume

III,

Scoring K e y s , provides the instruction

for scoring and interpreting the results of the assessment.
Mortimer has r e s ponded to reported dif f i c u l t i e s
the test w i t h suggestions

in scoring

for si m p l i f y i n g the process.

He also cautions against using a sho r t e n e d vers i o n of the
procedures without jeopardizing its v a l i d i t y and reliability.
Regardless of its w i d e s p r e a d application,
Filkins Test has not been with o u t its critics.

99

the MortimerA study

conducted by W e n d l i n g and Kolody s t r o n g l y c r i t i c i z e d the
value of the test in pred i c t i n g rates of r e c i d i v i s m among
convicted a l c o h o l-impaired drivers.

A st a t i s t i c a l analysis

of 1,740 cases concluded that the rates of error in p r e d i c t i n g
r e c i d i v i s m from the total score on the test w ere unacceptable.
"Using the total score,

for example,

to predict r e ­

cidivism one would i ncorrectly c l a s s i f y 19.3 percent of
the non-recidivist

in order to identify c o r r e c t l y only 29.3

percent of the recidivists."'*'^
In addition, W e n d l i n g and K o l o d y have

identified other

predictors useful in d eveloping a p r e d i c t i o n model for r e ­
cidivism.

They used multiple regre s s i o n to analyze twelve

59
variables.

From this

analysis the authors concluded that

the first five variables were the most significant p r edictor
variables.

These variables were:

1.

Number

of prior suspensions or revocations.

2.

Number

of p rior s uspension or r evocation violations.

3.

Number

of arrests

4.

Number

of prior DUIL offenses.

5.

Number

of n on-alcohol rela t e d arrests.^'*'

for DUIL or impaired driving.

W e n d l i n g and Ko l o d y state this conclusion.
basis of the data herein,

there is no apparent reason,

the exception of general arrest history,
driving record variables
In these data,

with

to search be y o n d

for p r e d i c t i o n of

recidivism.

past driv i n g b e h avior clearly is the best

p r edictor of future driving behavior."
This c onclusion
of Mortimer,

"On the

Filkins,

102

is not inconsistent w i t h recommendations
et al. who have simil a r i l y suggested

the inherent value of r e viewing the driv i n g record as a
source of indicators of p r o b l e m drinking.

Summary

W i t h its inception at the beginnings
the M o rtimer-Filkins

of the ASAP years,

Test has pr o v e n to be a valuable a s s e s s ­

ment tool for court p e r s o n n e l charged wit h d e t e r mining prob l e m
drink i n g among con v i c t e d DUIL offenders.
for the M o r t i m e r-Filkins

Test

its w a y into the repertoire

Further credibility

occured as it found

of a s sessing agencies other than

60
those associated w i t h the courts.

The choice of this test

is b ased on its d e m o n s t r a t e d r e l i a b i l i t y and validity,

an

important factor to field p e r s o n n e l in their e v e r y d a y a p p l i ­
cation of the test.

The test remains a significant c o n t r i ­

butor to highway traf f i c sa f e t y efforts

in combating drinking-

drivers.
High w a y sa f e t y r e s e a r c h studies have upheld the concept
that alcohol plays a significant role in accident causation.
Roberts

in his b o o k devotes an entire chapter to alcohol

and accidents.

He concludes that the a l c o h o l -related accident

p r o b l e m is serious and m e d i c a l
the alcoholic,

knowledge can help,

but for

c e s s a t i o n of d r i n k i n g wil l not n e c e s sarily

lower his accident r i s k immediately.

64

A Cali f o r n i a D e partment of Motor Vehicle report c o n ­
cludes
i.e.,

"The evidence

. . . seems clear that alcoholism,

excessive and continuous use of alcohol,

s i g n ificantly to traffic accidents.
moreover,

contributes

Its relative contribution,

seems to be greater for accidents of greater

•4. -.65
severity.
The U n i v e r s i t y of M i c h i g a n H i g h w a y Safety Research
Institute's s tudy of the effect of lowering the drinking
age to eighteen in M i c h i g a n concluded that when 18 to 20
year olds could l e g a l l y d rink alcohol sales went up,
so did the rate of accidents among this group.

and

66

After a r e v i e w of a v a r i e t y of Highway Safety a p p r o c h e s ,
W aller found that,
silver bullet."

"It is clear that as of yet we have no

W a l l e r finds

it unrealistic to submit all

61
alcoholics to some remedial traffic p r o g r a m since o nly a
few will actually be

involved in fatal accidents,

wo u l d not warrant the overall cost;

however,

and this

e ducational

programs toward changing public attitude m a y be more pro4
ductive.

*

-

■

6 7

For those drivers

involved in d r u n k driv i n g a r r e s t s ,

it is reasonable to assume they wil l fall within one of
the three types of classifications c o m m o n l y used:
drinkers,

excessive,

or p r o b l e m drinkers.

social

The data suggests

that of these groups the p r o b l e m drinker is most r epresented
in the statistics,
25

e s p e c i a l l y for drivers over the age of

(this is not to i mply that p r o b l e m drinkers do not exist

at a younger age).

Yet,

on the other hand,

alcohol is often

involved in single vehicle accidents w h i c h most often claims
the lives of young d r i v e r s .
The one u n q uestionable statement that can be made
about the d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g p r o b l e m is that
to resp o n d

it has failed

to even the most vigorous attempts to m o d i f y

it for any sustained period of time to date.

Elaborate

attempts to control drinki n g - d r i v i n g b y increased enforcement
have only served to drain large amounts of m o n e y from public
funds,

while p r o v i d i n g marginal or little to no effect.

This pes s i m i s m is not to deny that a d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g prob l e m
exists,

it is unmanageable,

but rather

it serves as a stimulus to seek newer and more

innovative

efforts.

or to concede that

Only a s u stained effort can impact on d runk driving.

62
Footnotes

Evaluation of M otor Vehicle Records."
Journal of
Traffic Safety E d u cation XXXII, 2, (January, 1985), p. 12.
2

Sam Yaksich Jr.
"The Tip of the I c e b e r g - - A l c o h o l 1s
Involvement in Fatal Crashes," Journal of Traffic Safety E d u ­
cation XXX, 1 (October, 1982) p. 23.
3

R.D. Blomberg, "A Compa r i s o n of Alcohol Involvement in
Pedestrian Causalties,"
Journal of Traffic Safety E d u c a t i o n ,
XXX, (January, 1983) p. 22.
4

Hyman J. Roberts, The Causes, Ecology, and Prevention
of Traffic A c c i d e n t s . (Charles C. Thomas Books, Springfield,
I L . , 1971) p. 422-424 .
^Sam Yaks i c h Jr.,

p.

23.

g
Ralph K. Jones and Kent B. Joscelyn,
Alcohol and
Highway Safety 1978;
A Review of the State of Knowledge,
Summary V o l u m e , (Highway Saf e t y R e s e a r c h Institute, Ann
Arbor, Mich., 1978) p. 8 .

7 Ibid
g

Sidney Cohen, "The One Vehi c l e Accident,"
Journal of
Traffic Safety E d u c a t i o n , X XIX (July, 1982) p. 13.
Q
'David S. Reed, "Drinking and Driving Programs"
In:
Alcohol and Health M o n o g r a p h 3:
Prevention, Intervention and
Treatment: Concerns and M o d e l s , (U. S. Department of Health
and Human Services, Washington, D.C., 1982) p. 67.
^Sam

Yaksich Jr.,

^Hyman

J. Roberts,

p.
p.

24.
422 .

12

Don S. Cahalan, "Epidemiology:
Alcohol Use in American
Society,"
In:
E.L. Gomberg, H.R. White, and J.A. Carpenter
e d s ., Alcohol, Science, and Society R e v i s i t e d , (University
of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, Mich., 1982). p. 100.
13

"Rates of Teenage Drug Use S h i fting Downward But
New Study Says Problem Still Severe."
Education W e e k ,
March 3, 1982, p. 1.

63
14

David S.

^Sam

Reed,

p.

67.

Yaksich Jr., p.

23.

1 6 Ibid
17
18

Sidney Cohen,
Ralph K.

p.

13.

Jones and Kent B.

Joscelyn,

p.

23.

19 Ibid
tv. •J

20

13,

"The War Against Drunk Drivers"
1982, p. 34.

21

Ralph K.

Jones and Kent B.

N e w s w e e k , September

Joscelyn,

pp.

65-66.

22

Noel Kaestner, Oregon Study of Drink i n g D r i v e r s ,
(Oregon Department of Transportation, M o t o r Vehicles Division,
Salem, Oregon, 1969), p. 2.
23

Ralph K.

Jones and Kent B.

Joscelyn,

p.

65.

24

Floyd D. Smith, Blood Alcohol L evel and Other
S elected Factors as Indicators of the P r o b l e m Drinking
D r i v e r . (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Coll e g e of Education,
M i c higan State University, 1970), pp. 63-65.
25

Mar y K. Janke, Raymond C. Peck, and Dell R. Dreyer.
M e d i c a l l y Impaired Drivers:
An E v a l u a t i o n of C alifornia
P o l i c y . (California Department of M o t o r Vehicles, S a cramento
CA, 1978) pp. 2-20.

2 6 I b i d . , pp. 2-21-2-25.
27

Barent F. Landstreet, The D r i nking Driver;
The
A lcohol Safety Action P r o g r a m s . (Charles C. Thomas Books,
Springfield, I L , 1977), pp. 59-61.
?8
' John H. Lacey, J. Richard Stewart, and Forrest M.
Council, Techniques for P redicting H i g h - R i s k Drivers for
Alcohol C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s .
(University of N o r t h C a r olina
H igh w a y Safety Research Center, Chapel Hill, N.C., 1979)
p . 7.

64

29

I b i d ., p . 13 .

3 0 t,
,c
I b i d ., p . 15.
"^Ibid. , pp.
32

113-114.

Ibid

33

Rodney H. Wilkins, The Hidden Alcoholxc m
(Elek Science, London, 1974), p. 45.

Practice.

34

Kent B. Joscelyn, Roger P. Marikel, and Donald M.
Goldenbaum.
A Survey of Court Procedures for Handling P r o ­
b l e m Drinkers C o n v i c t e d of Driving W h i l e Intoxicated
Summ a r y V o l u m e .
(Institute for R e s earch in Public Safety,
Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana, 1971) p. 6 .
35

Lyle D. F i l k i n s , et a l . Alcohol Abuse and Traffic
Safety;
A Study of Fatalities, DWI Offenders, Alcoholics,
and C o u r t - R e l a t e d Treatment A p p r o a c h e s . (Highway Safety
R e s earch Institute, U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI,
1970), pp. 1-2.
36 , . .
Ibid
^ I b i d . , pp.

5-18.

38

Patricia F. Waller, Alcohol C o u n t e r m e a s u r e s .
Safety Research Center, U n i v e r s i t y of N o r t h Carolina,
Hill, N.C., 1976), p. 7.
David S.

Reed,

p.

(Highway
Chapel

70.

4 0 I b i d ., p. 69.
4 "*"Ibid., pp.
42

Ralph K.

4 ^David S.
44

69-70.

Jones and Kent B.
Reed,

p.

Joscelyn,

pp.

44-45.

85.

Richard L. Douglass and Jay Alan Freedman,
AlcoholRelated Causalties and Alcohol Beverage Market Response to
Beverage Alcohol A v a i l a b i l i t y Policies in Michigan, Volume I,
(Highway Safety R e s earch Institute, U n i v e r s i t y of Michigan,
Ann Arbor, MI, 1977), p. 48.

65
45

Richard L. Douglass, "Youth, Alcohol, and Traffic
Accidents."
In:
Alcohol and H e a l t h M o n o g r a p h 4 , Special
Populations I s s u e s .
(U.S. Department of H e a l t h and Human
Services, Washington, D . C . , 1982), p. 209.
^ I b i d . , p.

212 .

47

S.H. Schuman, et al., "Young Male Drivers:
Impulse
Expression, Accidents, and Violations."
Journal of the A m e r i ­
can Medical A s s o c i a t i o n , 200, (1967), pp. 1026-1030.
48

Richard W. Bishop, Case Studies of One Car Accidents
Involving Young D r i v e r s , (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation,
New York University, 1962), p. 9.
49

Investigation of 31 Fatal Autom o b i l e Accidents:
Final
Report, Boston U n i v e r s i t y , (U.S. Department of Transportation,
National High w a y Safety Institute, Washington, D . C . , 1970),
p. 13.
50

Richard L.

"^Ibid.,

pp.

Douglass,

p.

203.

204-207.

52

W i l l i a m R. Williford, T i m o t h y P. Williams, and Robert
P. Lillis, "Drunk Driving--the Prob l e m and Under 21 Year Old
Driver."
Journal of Traffic Sa f e t y E d ucation XXX, (January,
1983), p. 9.
53
54

Hyman J. Roberts,

p. 4 28.

Ralph K. Jones and Kent B.

56W i l l i a m R. Williford,
Robert P. Lillis, p. 9.

Joscelyn,

pp.

49-50.

T i m o t h y P. Williams,

and

57

Robert L. Marshall, "Putting the Brakes on Drunk
Driving."
Journal of Traffic Safety E d ucation XXX, (January,
1983), pp. 12-13.
CQ

LeRoy W. Dunn,
"NHTSA's H i g h w a y Safety Program P r i o r i ­
ties:
How Traffic Safety Educators Can p a r t icipate,"
Journal
of Traffic Safety Education XXIX, 4, (July, 1982), p. 8 .

66
59

Barent

F. Landstreet,

pp.

65-69.

60

Roger E. Hagen, et al..
An Evaluation of Alcohol Abuse
Treatment as an A l t e r native to Driver License Suspension or
R e v o c a t i o n , (California Department of Motor Vehicles, Sacramento,
CA, 1978), p. 1.
61

Ralph K.

Jones and Kent B.

62
W i l l i a m R. Williford,
Robert P. Lillis, p. 8 .

Joscelyn,

pp.

67-68.

Timothy P. Williams,

and

Jack K. Weaver, "The NHTSA Safe Performance Driver
D e m o n s t r a t i o n / E v a l u a t i o n Project,"
Journal of Traffic Safety
Education XXX, 1, (October, 1982), p. 6 .
64

pp.

Hyman J.

^Mary
2-25.

66
67

K.

Roberts,
Janke,

Richard L.

p.

4 30.

Raymond C.

Peck,

and Dell R. D r e y e r ,

Douglass and Jay Alan Freedman,

Patricia F. Waller,

p.

p.

104.

8.

68

Joanne B. A u t h and George J. W a r h e i t . "Estimating
The Prevalence of P r o b l e m Drinking and Alcoh o l i s m in the
General Population:
An O v e r v i e w of E p i d e m i ological Studies."
Alcohol, Health, and Research W o r l d 7, 2 (Winter 1982-1983),
pp. 17-18.
69

Don Cahalan and Robin Room.
Problem Drinking Among
A merican M e n . (College and Univ e r s i t y Press, New Haven, Conn.,
1974), pp. 1-250.
70

.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
Statistical C o m p e n d i u m on Alcohol and H e a l t h , 1981, p.

.
First
41.

7 1 I b i d ., p. 47.
72

J. V a l l e y Rachal, et al., "Alcohol Use Among Youth,"
I n : Alcohol and Hea l t h M o n o g r a p h 1:
Alcohol Consumption and
Related P r o b l e m s . (U.S. Department of He a l t h and Human
Services, W a s h i n g t o n D.C., 1982), p. 64.

73 Ibid. , p . 65 .
74

I b i d ., p . 6 6 .

78 I b i d . , p . 69 .
76

Ernest P. Noble.
"Special Population Groups,"
In:
Ernest P. Noble (ed.)
Alcohol and He a l t h from the Sec r e t a r y
of He a l t h Education and W e l f a r e , (U.S. Government Printing
Office, Washington, D.C., 1978), pp. 43-67.
77

M.A. Shuckit, "Alcohol and Youth,"
A l c o h o l i s m 1, 13 (1979).

7ft

J. V a l l e y Rachal,

79 I b i d . , pp.

et al., pp.

Advances

in

78-79.

91-93.

80

Thomas C. H a r f o r d and Danielle L. Spiegler,
"En­
vi r o n mental Influences in A dolescent Drinking,"
In:
Alcohol and Hea l t h M o n o g r a p h 4:
Special Population I s s u e s ,
(U.S. Department of He a l t h and Human Services, Washington,
D . C ., 1982), p. 175.
81

James F. Rooney, "Perceived Differences of Standards
for Alcohol Use A m o n g American Youth,"
Journal of Studies on
Alcohol 43, 11, (1982), pp. 1075-1076.

82 I b i d . , p. 1077.
83 I b i d . , pp.
84

B.J.
Determinants
They Do, and
A l c o h o l . 41,

1079-1080.

Biddle, B.J. Bank, and M.M. Marlin,
"Social
of A d olescent D r i n k i n g — What They Think, What
What I T hink and Do,"
Journal of Studies on
3, (1980), pp. 234-238.

85
W i l l i a m J. Filstead, "Adolescences and Alcohol,"
In:
E. Mansell Pattison and Edward Kaufman (e d s .), Encyclopedic
Handb o o k of A l c o h o l i s m , (Gardiner Press, New York, N.Y.,
1982), pp. 770-771.
8 6 I b i d . , p. 772.
87 I b i d . , p . 77 3.

68
Q Q

Howard T. Blane, "Problem Drinking in Delinquent and
Non-del i n q u e n t Adole s c e n t Males,"
Journal of Drug and Alcohol
Abuse 9, 2, (1982-1983), pp. 228-229.
89

E d i t h S. L. Gomberg,
"Young Male Alcoholics:
A
Pilot Study,"
Journal of Studies on Alcohol 43, 7, (1982)
pp. 695-698.
90

Sharon C. Wilsnack, Judith L. Barnes, and Carol S.
Benson, "Psychosocial C h a r a c t e r i s t i c of W omen wit h Alcoholic
Fathers,"
In:
M. G a l anter (ed.) Currents in A lcoholism VII
(Grune and Stratton, New York, N.Y., 1980), pp. 217-220.
91

Rudolf G. Mortimer, et al., "Psychometric I d e n t i f i ­
cation of Problem Drinkers,"
Q u a r t e r l y Journal of Studies on
Alco h o l 34, (April, 1973), p. 1333.

93

Rudolf G. Mortimer, "The M ortimer-Filkins Test
for I d e n t ifying P r o b l e m - - D r i n k i n g Drivers,"
Proceedings
2nd n a t i o n a l DWI C o n f e r e n c e , (AAA Foundation for Traffic
Safety, Falls Church, V A . , 1979), p. 59.

94 Ibid.
9 ~*Ibid. , p . 60 .
96

M.W. Kerlan, et a l . Court Procedures for Identifying
P r o b l e m Drinkers Volume I:
Manual.
(U.S. Department of
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n National H i g h w a y Traffic Safety Administration,
Washington, D.C., 1971), p. 30.
9 ^ I b i d . , p . 32 .
98
99

I b i d ., p . 33.
Rudolf G. Mortimer,

pp.

60-61.

'*'99Au b r e y W e n d l i n g and Bohdan Kolody, "An Evaluation
of the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test as a Predictor of AlcoholImpaired Driving Recidivism," Journal of Studies on Alcohol
43, 7, (1982), p. 756.
"*"9 '*'Ibid. , p . 763 .
102

I b i d ., p . 7 65 .

Chapter III

Design and M e t h o d o l o g y

During the d e v e l o p m e n t of this study it became apparent
that a number of factors,
the sampling process
the data.

d i f ficult to control,

w o u l d influence

and the s t r ength of the analysis of

Limitations on the ava i l a b i l i t y of subject for

the sample made it im p r a c t i c a l to est a b l i s h a control population
could be assumed to have str e n g t h e n e d the interpretation
of the data.

Additionally,

it was not p r actical to obtain

subjects from other agencies
However,

for a mor e r e p resentative sample.

this s e l e c t e d sample,

to be a unique population,

while it has the potential

fitted the defined purpose of

this study as stated in Chap t e r I.

Therefore,

this study

should be viewed as a p r e l i m i n a r y effort to be used in the
assessment of d r i n k i n g - d r i v i n g problems among young convicted
OUIL offenders and is not m eant to replace current practices
in use by a s s essing agencies.

The Population

The p o p u l a t i o n of this s tudy did include all drivers
who had been

(1 ) a r r e s t e d and sub s e q u e n t l y convicted by

the Michigan 54th-B District Court,

East Lansing,

Michigan,

of operating under the influence of intoxicating liquor,
and

(2 ) did undergo p r e - s e n t e n c i n g assessment

for prob l e m

drinking by the p r o b a t i o n office of said court,
were of age twenty - f i v e years old or less.
69

and

(3)

70
Sampling Design

Data Source

Data for this ex post

facto study were collected from

the organiz a t i o n a l records of a selected sample of young
drinking drivers a r r e s t e d and convicted at East Lansing,
Michigan,

after April 1,

1983,

but before May 1, 1984.

The sample c o n sisted of the first one hundred twenty-six
individual drinki n g - d r i v e r s
was available,

for w h o m all relevant

information

and wh o met the age limitations of the study.

The complete p o p u l a t i o n from w h i c h the sample was drawn
consisted of three h u n d r e d forty-eight OUIL offenders who
had undergone assessment at the p r obation office of the
54th-B District Court of Michigan.
All information relat i v e to each offender was obtained
by one pro b a t i o n offi c e r who had been assigned to perform
all assessments on OUIL offenders.
score for the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test,

Data included the global
a copy of the driving

record of the offender at the time of assessment,
alcohol conce n t r a t i o n at the time of arrest,
the offender.

Other

the age of

information included the reported first

year of alcohol drinking,
drinking days

the blood

and the reported number of alcohol

in the previous

thirty days prior to assessment.

The global score on the Mortimer-Filkins Test served
to divide the sample

into three subgroups

the level of p r o b l e m classification,
variable.

as defined by

and acted as the dependent

The r e m a i n i n g data variables served as the

71
in the data analysis.

independent v a r iables

The dependent

variable was p a i r e d w i t h the independent variables either
singly or in c o m b i n a t i o n for the purp o s e of statistical
analysis.
Due to r e s t r i c t i o n s by the M i c h i g a n 54th-B District
Court on client confidentiality,

the court p r obation officer

reviewed the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l records

and selected the first

one hundred t w e n t y - s i x individuals c o nvicted as OUIL offenders
who met the r e q u i r e m e n t s for inclusion in the selected sample.
The probation offi c e r recor d e d all p e r tinent

information

related to the global score on the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test
and the independent variables,

including a copy of the o f ­

fenders driving r e c o r d at the time of assessment.

When

the first one hund r e d twen t y - s i x records m e e t i n g the r e q u i r e ­
ments were obtained,

the pro b a t i o n officer turned over the

records to the inve s t i g a t o r for coding p rior to analysis.

Data Interpretation

The driv i n g records were examined b y the investigator
in order to record inform a t i o n relevant to the independent
variables of m o v i n g violations,
reckless driving violations,
accidents.

Viola t i o n s

alco h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

and r e p orted m otor vehicle

for alcohol- r e l a t e d offenses

or r e c k ­

less driving offenses wer e not included under the independent
variable mo v i n g violations,

so as not to be counted more

than once in the s t a t i s t i c a l analysis.

Mo v i n g violations

were simply counted w i t h no attempt to assign a weighted

72
value to the type of offense.
Motor vehicle accidents,
likewise,

were simply counted and summed for each individual

offender as they occur r e d w i t h no attempt to weight the
nature or type of accident.
The remaining independent variables were recorded
as they appear in the organiz a t i o n a l records.

The blood

alcohol concentration was recorded as the percent of weight
b y volume reported at the time of arrest.

For simplicity

the age of the individual offender at the time of assessment
was recorded without any reference to exact chronological
age in terms of years and months.

The self-reported year

when drinking began was recorded in years without reference
to exact number of m o n t h s .
days

in the previous

The number of alcohol drinking

thirty days prior to the assessment

was recorded as the number of self-reported days.
last two independent variables,

These

were obtained from the Office

of Substance Abuse Services Areawide Data Evaluation Systems
(ADES)

form w h i c h is completed as part of the total assessment

process.
All information for b o t h the dependent

and independent

variables was n u m e r i c a l l y coded in such a manner that it
could be entered into the m a i nframe Cyber 750 computer at
the Michigan State University's Computer Services Center
for subsequent data analysis.

The data analysis was conducted

by use of the 1982 revi s e d version of the Statistical Package
for the Social Sciences
Evanston,

Illinois.

as developed at Northwestern University,

A file was created to include all

73
values for the dep e n d e n t and independent variables for each
of the selected one hund r e d twent y - s i x individual OUIL o f ­
fenders .
Due to the nature of the selected sample,

the hypotheses

tested could not be g e n e r a l i z e d t o .a larger population.
Major sample biases

exist for the man n e r in w h i c h the sample

was drawn,

as wel l as the nature of the type of individual

arrested.

The offenders mad e their law enforcement contact

in a m e d i u m - s i z e d college c o m m u n i t y w i t h a greater emphasis
on OUIL arrests than can be t y p i c a l l y e x p ected in other
communities.

In addition,

the offender m a y be expected

to be more r e p r e s e n t a t i v e of college students than n o n ­
college students due to the s t u d y having been conducted
in East Lansing,
is located.

Michigan,

At the time of this study M i c h i g a n State U n i ­

versity had an enrol l m e n t
Therefore,

w h e r e Michigan State Unive r s i t y

the c onclusions

in excess of 40,000 students.
of the study wil l be descriptive

of this specific sample and not the popul a t i o n as a whole.

The Null Hypotheses

The f o l lowing are statements of the three m ajor h y p o ­
theses and their subhy p o t h e s e s that wil l be studied in the
null form;

i.e.,

s t a t i n g that no significant relationship

exists between the stated variables

H 1:
o

for s tatistical purposes:

There is no signif i c a n t difference between the mean

scores for e ach independent variable and the level of problem

74
classification as d e t e r m i n e d by the global score on the
M o rtimer-Filkins Test.

These subhypotheses

are:

a.

Age of the individual.

b.

Blood alcohol concentration at the time of arrest

c.

Reported nu m b e r of alcohol d r i n k i n g years.

d.

The r e p orted number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

in

the previous thirty days prior to assessment.

H q 2:

e.

Moving violations.

f.

A l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.

g.

Reckless driv i n g violations.

h.

Reported number of m otor vehicle accidents.

There is no rel a t i o n s h i p between the global score

on the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test and the f o llowing d escriptive
independent variables.

These subhypotheses

are:

a.

Age of the individual.

b.

Blood alcohol concentration at the time of arrest

c.

Reported number of alcohol d r i n k i n g years.

d.

The r e p orted number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days
the previous thirty days prior to assessment.

e.

Moving violations.

f.

A l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.

g.

Reckless d r i v i n g violations.

h.

Reported number of motor vehicle accidents.

in

H q 3:

The global score on the M o r t i m er-Filkins Test obtained

during assessment can not be p r e d i c t e d b y the following
descriptive independent variables when taken either singly
or in combination apriori.

These subhypotheses are:

a.

Age of the individual.

b.

Blood alcohol concentration at the time of arrest.

c.

Reported number of alcohol d r i n k i n g years.

d.

The r e p orted number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

in

the previous thirty days prior to assement.
e.

Mov i n g violations.

f.

A l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.

g.

Reckless d r i v i n g violations.

h.

Reported number of m otor vehicle accidents.

Symbolically
a

.

b

.

—

X lb

c.

*lc

d.
e

*2a

X la

*ld

.

X le

f.

X lf

g-

"
x ig

h.

*ih

=
=
=

=
=
=
=

*2b
*2c
*2d
*2e

x 2f
X 2g
*2 h

=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=

X 3a
*3b
*3c
*3d
X 3e
X 3f
X 3g
*3h

where
X

independent = social drinkers variable
independent

= excessive drinker variable

76

X3

independent = prob l e m drinker variable

H 2:
o

r a,mf - rb,mf ~ r c,mf ~ r d,mf ~ re,mf - r f,mf ~ r g,mf - r h,mf
where
r

=

the Pearson C orrelation Coefficient

mf

=

global score on Mortimer-Filkins Test

a
b

= age
=

b l o o d alcohol concentration

c

= r e p o r t e d number of alcohol drinking

years

d

= r e p o r t e d number of alcohol drinking

days

in

the previous thirty days p rior to assessment
e

=

m o v i n g violations

f

=

a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations

g

= reckless driv i n g violations

h

= r e p o r t e d humber of m otor vehicle accidents

H 3;
o
y = a + bx

a

+ bx. + . . . + bx. + e
b
h

where
y

=

p r e d i c t e d global score on Mortimer Filkins Test

a

=

intercept

b

=

slope

x

=

independent variable

(constant)

%

e

=

error

77
Methods of Analysis

The data o b t a i n e d were analyzed by using the following:
a two-tailed analysis of variance,
coefficient,

H q 1:

Pearson's correlation

and m u l t i p l e r egression analyses.

A two ta i l e d analysis of variance was employed

to determine the s i g n i ficance of the difference between
the means for all independent variables and the classification
level of a social drinker,
drinker.

excessive drinker,

and prob l e m

A .05 level of significance was used to determine

the acceptance or r e j e c t i o n of this hypothesis.

Hq 2 :

A Pearson's

c orrelation coefficient was employed

to determine the r e l a t i o n s h i p betw e e n the global score on
the Morti m e r - F i l k i n s Test and each of the descriptive
pendent variables.
to the relationship;

inde­

No level of significance was attached
however,

the descriptive independent

variables were ran k orde r e d b y the strength of their r e l a t i o n ­
ship to the global score on the Mortimer-Filkins

H q 3:

Test.

M u l t i p l e regre s s i o n analysis was employed to

determine the r e g r e s s i o n coefficient used to predict the
global score on the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test.

The descriptive

independent v a riables wer e entered into the equation on
the basis of their abil i t y to explain the variance
global score.

in the

O n l y those d escriptive independent variables

that were able to m a i n t a i n a .05 significance level for

78
the r egression c oefficient remained in the equation.

Report of Analysis

The results of the analysis of the data are p r esented
in Chap t e r IV in w r i t t e n and tabular form.

Each hypothesis

was analyzed i n d e p e n d e n t l y in order to generate the various
data.

The tables r e present the analysis of variance for

the dependent variable,

or level of p r o b l e m classification,

and eac h of the independent variables,

the relationship

of the independent variables to the dependent variable,
and the results of a m u l t i p l e regression analysis.
data g e nerated dur i n g the analysis,

A d ditional

but not the subject

of the various h y p o t h e s e s , are presented in the appendices
A and B of the study.

79
Footnotes

Norman H. Nie, Hadlai C. Hull, and Marija Norusis,
SPSS Introductory Guide:
Basic Statistics and O p e r a t i o n s ,
(McGraw-Hill Book Company, Chicago, IL., 1982), pp. 1-167.

Chapter IV

Analysis of the Data

The results of the analysis of data are presented
in this chapter.

The analysis of the following statistics

are p r e s e n t e d and discussed:

lj the difference in the mean

scores for e ach of the independent variables

and the level

of p r o b l e m classif i c a t i o n as d etermined b y the global score
on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test,

2) the relationship of the

global score on the Morti m e r - F i l k i n s Test to each of the
eight

(8)

independent variables,

of the eight

(8)

3) the ability of each

independent variables to explain the variance

in the global score on the M o r t i m er-Filkins Test.
other derived relationships

In addition,

are pre s e n t e d to describe the

sample population.
All of the original 126 individual convicted OUIL
offenders met the requirements

for inclusion in the study

and were used in the collection and analysis of the data.
Table 2 presents

the c omposition of the selected sample

b y level of p r o b l e m c l a ssification as deter m i n e d by the
global score on the M o rtimer-Filkins Test.

Difference

in the Mean Scores for Each Independent

Variable and the Level of Problem Classification

The following independent variables of the null hypothesis
H q 1 were tested for the d i fference in the computed mean

80

81
Table 2

C o m p o s i t i o n of the s e l e c t e d sample by level of p r o b l e m
c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as d e t e r m i n e d b y the global score on the
Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test

Social
Drinkers
N umber of Cases
% Relative

F r equency

% Cumul a t i v e

Frequency

113

Excessive
Drinkers
10

Problem
Drinkers

Total

3

126
100.0

89.7

7.9

2.4

89.7

97.6

100.0

82
(8) independent variables and

score for each of the eight

the level of p r o b l e m c l a ssification by using a two-tailed
analysis of variance method.

The independent variables

were examined w i t h respect to three levels of p r o b l e m c l a s s i ­
fication and the mea n scores o b t a i n e d for each of the eight
(8) independent variables.
A.

The results are:

A g e --In com p a r i n g the mea n score of ages for each

level of prob l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n a 2.05

F-statistic was o b ­

tained w i t h an a s s o c i a t e d s i g n i ficance level of

.13.

This

value was not s ufficient to demons t r a t e significance at
the

.05 level.

The null hypothesis of no significant d i f ­

ference in the mean age level of p r o b l e m classification was
sustained.
heading:

The results
An analysis

are p r e s e n t e d in Table 3 under the

of varia n c e of the mean age for each

level of prob l e m classification.
B.

Blood A l c o h o l C o n c e n t r a t i o n --In comparing the

mean score of b lood alcohol c o n c entration at the time of
arrest for each level of p r o b l e m classification a .48 _Fstatistic was o b t a i n e d w i t h an a s sociated significance level
of

.62.

This value was not sufficient to demonstrate s i g n i ­

ficance at the

.05 level.

The null hypothesis of no s i g n i ­

ficant difference in the mean b lood alcohol concentration
of each level of p r o b l e m cl a s s i f i c a t i o n was sustained.
The results are p r e s e n t e d in Table 4 under the heading:
An analysis of v a r i a n c e of the mea n b lood alcohol concentration
for each level of p r o b l e m classification.

Table 3
An analysis of variance of the mean age for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification
Between Groups
Social Drinkers
Excessive Drinkers
Problem Drinkers
Within Groups

Note:

Sum of
Squares

Degrees of
Freedom

Mean
Squares

2

7.90

15.79

F Ratio

Significance

426.04
2.06

38.50
8.0
472.54

F=2.72 for a significance level of

123

.05

3.84

.13

Table 4
An analysis of variance of the mean blood alcohol
concentration for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification
Between Groups
Social Drinkers
Excessive Drinkers
Problem Drinkers
Within Groups

Note:

Sum of
Squares

Degrees of
Freedom

8.31

2

Mean
Squares

F Ratio

Significance

4 .16

960.92
86.90

.48

8.67
1056.49

F=2.72 for a significance level of

123

.05

8.59

.62

C.

85
The Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Y e a r s --

In comparing the m ean score of the r e p orted number of alcohol
d r i nking years for eac h level of p r o b l e m classification
a 3.92 F-statistic was obtained w i t h an a s sociated significa nce
level of

.02.

This value was sufficient to demonstrate

significance at the

.05 level.

significant diff e r e n c e

The null hypothesis

in the means

classification was rejected.
in Table 5 under the heading:

of no

for each level of p r o b l e m

The results are presented
An analysis of variance of

the means for the r e p o r t e d number of years of alcohol drinking
for e a c h level of p r o b l e m classification.
D.

The Number of Alcohol Drinking Days

in the Previous

Thirty Days Prior to A s s e s s m e n t --In comparing the mean scores
for the number of alcohol drinking days

in the previous

th i r t y days prior to assessment for each level of prob l e m
c l a ssification at 3.40 F-statistic was obtained w i t h an
assoc i a t e d significance

level of

.04.

to demonstrate s i g n i ficance of this
at the

.05 level.

was rejected.
the heading:

independent variable

The null hypothesis

di fference in the means

This value was sufficient

of no significant

for each level of p r o b l e m c l a ssification

The results

are p r esented in Table 6 under

An analysis of variance of the mean number

of repor t e d alcohol d r i nking days

in the previous thirty

days prior to assessment.
E.

Moving V i o l a t i o n s --When the mean number of moving

v i olations for the three levels of p r o b l e m classification
was compared,

a

.71 F-statistic was obtained w i t h an associated

Table 5
An Analysis of variance of the means for the reported number of
years of alcohol drinking for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification
Between Groups
Social Drinkers

Sum of
Squares
30.10

78.40

Problem Drinkers

24.67

Note:

Mean
Squares

2

15.05

F Ratio

Significance

368.99

Excessive Drinkers

Within Groups

Degrees of
Freedom

472.06

3.92

123

F=2.72 for a significance level of .05

3.84

.02

Table 6
An analysis of variance of the mean number of reported alcohol drinking days in the
previous thirty days prior to assessment for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification

Sum of
Squares

Between Groups

101.17

Social Drinkers

192.40

Problem Drinkers

140.67

Note:

¥ = 2.12

2

Mean
Squares

F Ratio

Significance

3.40

.04

50.58

1494 .57

Excessive Drinkers

Within Groups

Degrees of
Freedom

1827.63

123

for a significance level of .05

14.86

significance level of

.49.

88
This value was not sufficient

to demonstrate significance at the

.05 level.

hypothesis of no significant difference
of m o v i n g violations
was sustained.
the heading:

in the mean number

for each level of prob l e m classification

The results are p r e sented in table 7 under
An analysis of variance of the mean number

of mo v i n g violations
F.

The null

for each level of prob l e m classification.

A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d V i o l a t i o n s --In comparing the mean

number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations
classification a 20.36

for each level of p r o b l e m

F-statistic was obtained w i t h an

associated significance level of

.01.

This value was s u f f i ­

cient to d emonstrate significance at the
null hypothesis

.05 level.

of no significant difference

The

in the mean

number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations of each level of p r o b l e m
classification was rejected.

The results are pre s e n t e d

in Table 8 under the heading:

An analysis of variance of

the mea n number of alco h o l - r e l a t e d violations

for each level

of p r o b l e m classification.
G.

Reckless Driving V i o l a t i o n s --When the mean number

of reckless driving violations
classification was compared,

for each level of prob l e m

a 2.51 F-statistic was obtained

w i t h an associated significance level of

.09.

This value

was not sufficient to demonstrate significance at the
level.

.05

The null hypothesis of no significant difference

in mean number of reckless driving violation for each level
of

problem classif i c a t i o n was sustained.

presented in Table 9 under the heading:

The results

are

An analysis of

Table 7
An analysis of variance of the mean number of moving
violations for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification

Social Drinkers
Excessive Drinkers
Problem Drinkers

Note:

¥ = 2.12

Degrees of
Freedom

8.63

Between Groups

Within Groups

Sum of
Squares

2

Mean
Squares

F Ratio

Significance

4.31

680.53
62.50

.71

2.67
745.70

for a significance level of

123

.05

6.06

.49

Table 8
An analysis of variance of the mean number of alcohol-related
violations for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification

Sum of
Squares

Between Groups

2.36

Social Drinkers

1.96

Excessive Drinkers

4.50

Problem Drinkers
Within Groups

Note:

Degrees of
Freedom
2

Mean
Squares

F=2.72 for a significance level of

123

.05

Significance

20.36

>.01

1.18

.67
7.13

F Ratio

.06

Table 9
An analysis of variance of the mean number of reckless driving
violations for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification

Sum of
Squares

Between Groups

.08

Social Drinkers

.99

Excessive Drinkers

.90

Problem Drinkers

0.00

Within Groups

1.89

Note:

Degrees of
Freedom
2

Mean
Squares

F Ratio

.04

2.51

123

F=2.72 for a significance level of .05

Significance

.02

.09

variance of

the

mean

92
of

number

reckless

driving

v iolations

for each level of p r o b l e m classification.
H.

Reported

Number

of

Motor

Vehicle

A c c i d e n t s --In

comparing the mean nu m b e r of reported motor vehicle accidents
for eac h

level of p r o b l e m

classification

a 10.13

F-statistic

was o b t ained w i t h an a ssociated significance level of
This

value

the

.05

the

mean

each

was

level.

analysis
v ehicle

The

number

level

results

sufficient

of

are
of

null

of

presented
variance

m otor

of

in

Table
the

each

10

mea n

level

s i g n i ficance
no

was

under

in

accidents

for

of

rejected.
the

number

of

prob l e m

at

diffe r e n c e

vehicle

classification

of

for

demonstrate

hypothesis

reported

problem

accidents

to

>.01.

The

heading:
reported

An
motor

classification.

The Relationship of the Dependent Variable,
the M o r t i m er-Filkins

Test,

to the Eight

Independent Variables

The f o l lowing independent variables of the null hypotheis
H q 2 w ere

tested

for

their

relationship

to

the

global

score

on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test.
A.

Age

B.

Blood

C.

The

D.

The

Alcohol
Nu m b e r

R e p orted

Concen t r a t i o n
of

Reported

Number

of

at

the

Alcohol

Alcohol

Time

of

Drinking

Drinking

Mov i n g Violations

F.

A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d Violations

Years

Days

the Previous Thirty Days Prior to Assessment
E.

Arrest

in

Table 10
An analysis of variance of the mean number of reported motor vehicle
accidents for each level of problem classification

Level of
Problem Classification
Between Groups
Social Drinkers

Sum
Squares

Mean
Squares

F Ratio

Significance

3.24

28.32
6.40

Problem Drinkers

4.67

Note:

2

6.49

Excessive Drinkers

Within Groups

Degrees of
Freedom

39.39

10.13

123

F=2.72 for a significance level of .05

.32

>.01

G.

94
Reckless Driving Violations

H.

Reported Number of Motor Vehicle Accidents.

To determine the relationship between the dependent
variable,
(8)

the M o rtimer-Filkins Test,

and each of the eight

independent variables the Pearson method of det e r m i n g

the c orrelation coefficient was employed.

(See A p p e n d i x

D for further d iscussion of the Pearson C orrelation method).
The results of the Pearson Correlation C oefficient
statistics

are pre s e n t e d in Table 11 under the heading:

The r e l a t i o n s h i p of each of the eight
to the d e pendent variable,

(8) independent variables

the Mortimer-Filkins Test,

by

rank order of r e a l t i o n s h i p .
The eight

(8)

independent variables are rank ordered

according to their rel a t i o n s h i p to the dependent variable.
In addition to the correlation coefficient
also presents

(r),

three other relevant statistics:

Table 11
1) the s i g n i f i ­

cance of r,

2) the p r o b a b i l i t y of obtaining that specific

value of r,

and 3) the r squared value.

Bloomers and Forsyth have cautioned against
the r results

too freely:

sent relationships

i n t e rpreting

1) correlation coefficients r e p r e ­

for a specific sample,

2) correlation

coefficients should not be compared to each other,

and 3)

correlation coefficients do not clearly e s tablish causaleffect relationships.

W i t h these caveats stated,

the results

of the Pearson Correl a t i o n test are reviewed.'*'
The largest value of r was obtained from the r e l a t i o n ­
ship of the global score on the Mortimer Filkins Test and

Table 11
The relationship of each of the eight (8) independent variables to the dependent
variable, the Mortimer-Filkins Test, b y rank order of relationship

Variable

Pearsons
Correlation
Coefficient
r

Significance
of r

Probability
r

r Squared

Motor vehicle accidents

.36

>.01

>.01

.13

Alcohol-related violations

.33

> .01

> .01

.11

>.01

>.01

.06

Number of reported alcohol
drinking days in the previous
thirty days prior to assessment

.24

Reported number of alcohol
drinking years

.15

.05

.10

.02

Blood alcohol concentration

.10

.14

.28

.01

Reckless driving violations

.10

.14

.29

.01

Number of moving violations

.04

.34

.68

>.01

Age

.20

.01

.03

.04

96
the number of m otor vehicle accidents r e p orted this value
was

.36 w h i c h represents

the global score.
r value are

12.7 percent of the varia n c e

in

The significance and p r o b i l i t y of this

>.01 and

>.01 respectively,

indicating that

the element of chance alone of o b taining this result was
v ery small.
The second largest value of r obtained represents
the r e l a t ionship b e t w e e n the global score on the MortimerFilkins Test and the number of r e p orted alco h o l - r e l a t e d
violations.

This value was

.33.

The amount of v a r iance

in the Morti m e r - F i l k i n s Test global score exp l a i n e d b y this
r e l a tionship is 10.7 percent.
r value

The significance of this

is >.01, w i t h a p r o b a b i l i t y for the r value of

>.01, b o t h statistics

indicate that the influence of chance

alone was small.
Three other relationships had a s i g n i ficance level
for r of
1.

.05 or less.
An r value of

These were:
.24 for the relationship of the

global score on the M o rtimer-Filkins Test to the number
of r e p orted alcohol d r i nking days

in the previous

thirty

days p rior to assessment.
2.

An r value of

.15 for the relationship of the

global score on the M o rtimer-Filkins Test to the repor t e d
number of alcohol d r i nking y e a r s .
3.

An r value of -.20 for the relationship of the

global score on the Mortimer-Filkins
the individual.

Test and the age of

97
The r e maining three independent variables had values
of r w i t h a significance level greater than
1.

.05,

they were:

The rel a t i o n s h i p of the global score on the M o r t i m e r

Filkins Test to b l o o d alcohol concentration at the time
of arrest p r o d u c e d an r value of
2.

.10.

The rel a t i o n s h i p of the global score on the M o r t i m e r

Filkins Test to the number of reckless driving violations
p r o d u c e d an r value of
3.

.10.

The rel a t i o n s h i p of the global score on the M o r t i m e r

Filkins Test to the nu m b e r of mo v i n g violations d e m o n s t r a t e d
and r value of

.04.

The Pearson C o r r e l a t i o n Coefficient not only p r o v i d e d
for a deter m i n a t i o n of the r e l a t ionship between the MortimerFilkins Test and e ach of the eight
but

(8)

independent variables,

in addition the m e t h o d assisted in the testing of the

third hypothesis.
was useful

Know i n g the rank order of the rel a t i o n s h i p

in d e v e l o p i n g a multiple regression model.

The Development of a Prediction Model by Use of
Multiple

Regression Technique

The r e m aining m a j o r statistical technique to be employed
was the application of m u l t i p l e regression technique to
the data in order to obtain a prediction m odel for the d e ­
pendent variable,
Test,

the global score on the Mortimer-Filkins

from the eight

(8)

independent variables.

The following independent variables of the null hypothes
H q 3 were tested for their ability to form a p r ediction m o d e l

98
of the global score on the Mortimer-Filkins Test.
a.

Age

b.

Blood Alcohol C o n c entration at the Time of Arrest

c.

Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Years

d.

The Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Days in
the Previous Thirty Days Prior to Assessment

e.

Mo v i n g Violations

f.

A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d Violations

g.

Reckless Driving Violations

h.

Reported Number of Motor Vehicle Accidents.

To derive this model from multi p l e linear regression
the p r ocedures of the Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences

(SPSS) w ere employed.

The met h o d used least squares

to m i n i m i z e the distance between the observed data and the
p r e d i c t i o n line to generate the model.

The SPSS procedure

for d e v e l o p i n g the r egression line requires the selection
of a dependent variable.

For this test it was the global

score on the M ortimer-Filkins
of the independent variables
to the dependent variable.

Test,

and the rank ordering

a c c ording to their relationship
The selection of a met h o d for

w h i c h the independent variables were to be entered into
the equation was chosen;
r e gression equation,

to test this hypothesis

in a multiple

a stepwise method of e ntry was selected.

(See A p p e n d i x D for further discussion of multiple regression
p r o c e d u r e s ).
The computer was prog r a m m e d to identify the global
score on the M o rtimer-Filkins

Test as the dependent variable

99
and to arrange the independent variables a c c ording to the
rank order dete r m i n e d by the Pearson C o r r e l a t i o n Coefficient.
The order of relationship to the d e p endent v a r iable was:
motor

vehicle accidents,

a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

of reported alcohol drinking days
days prior to assessment,
years,

in the previous

number

thirty

r e p o r t e d number of alcohol drinking

blood alcohol concentration,

number of mov i n g violations,

reckless driv i n g violation,

and age.

Table 12 presents

the results of this statistical p r o c e d u r e under the heading:
Multiple Regression Output- - V a r i a b l e s
As can be o b s erved in Table 12,

in the Equation.
the independent variables

were entered into the equation on their a b i l i t y to explain
the variance in the global score on the M o r t i m er-Filkins
Test.

The first

independent v a r iable ente r e d was the number

of m otor vehicle accidents.
was removed,

W h e n this v ariable's effect

the next independent v a r iable to be entered

was a l c o h o l -related violations.

As the effect of these

variables was remo v e d from the equation,
variable age was entered.

the independent

W hen the effects of these three

independent variables were removed,

the final independent

variable to be entered was the r e p orted number of alcohol
drinking years.

The final independent v a r iable entered

caused the equation to r each the default

limit,

and the

selection process stopped.
The remaining four independent variables:
of reported alcohol drinking days
days prior to assessment,

in the previous

The number
thirty

b l o o d alcohol concentration,

reckless

Table 12
Multiple linear regression output:
variables
(Variables in the equation)

in the equation

Multiple r = .54731
r square
= .29955
Adjusted r square = .27639
Standard error = 16.58594

Variable
Reported Motor Vehicle
Accidents

B

Standard
Error of B

Beta

F

Significance of
F

8.62

2.53

.27

11.60

> .01

Alcohol-related
Violations

15.82

5.69

.22

7.73

> .01

Age

-4.01

.95

-.41

17.90

>.01

3.27

.95

.34

11.75

>.01

101.57

17.74

32.79

>.01

Reported Number of
Alcohol Drinking Years
Constant
Where:

1) B represents the slope, 2) Beta represents the standardized value of B,
3) Constant represents the intercept of the predicted line.

101

driv i n g violations,

and mo v i n g violations

cantly increase the e x p lained variance

could not s i g n i f i ­

in the global score

on the M o rtimer-Filkins Test given the default values of
the F statistic at 3.84 w ith an assoc i a t e d p r o b a b i l i t y of
.05.

Table 13 presents these variables

Variables Not in the Equation,
correlation coefficient,

under the heading:

along w i t h their part i a l

F statistic,

and the significance

of the F statistic.
As can be observed,

none of the variables not in the

equation d e m o n s t r a t e d an F statistic
or exceed the equation default
Table

limit.

large en o u g h to meet
Also p r e s e n t e d in

13 is the t o l erance for the variables not in the equation

r e p r e s e n t i n g the p o r t i o n of the v a r i a b i l i t y in the global
score not e x plained b y the other variables.
table,

Table 14, presents

The rem a i n i n g

additional r e g r e s s i o n statistics

a ssociated w i t h the d evelopment of the p r e d i c t i o n model.
Further s tatistical procedures were u t i lized to test
the appropriateness

of the r egression model,

these techniques

are pr e s e n t e d in A p p e n d i x D as the analysis of the residuals.

Other Relationships

Derived from the

Analysis of the Data

In evaluating the data to e s t a b l i s h the r e l a t ionship
of the variables to the three
study,

(3) m a j o r hypotheses of this

other r e l a tionships were deri v e d w h i c h are d escriptive

of the selected

sample.

in the a p p p e n d i c e s .

These relationships

are pr e s e n t e d

Appen d i x A presents the variable mean

Table 13
Multiple linear regression output:
variables not in the equation
(Variables not in the equation)

Variable

Partial
Correlation
Coefficient

Beta In

F

Significance
of F

.10

.57

1.22

.27

Blood Alcohol Concentration

.84

.10

.60

1.17

.28

Reckless Driving
Violations

.06

.60

.69

.41

-.14

.57

2.24

.14

•

.09

00
o

Number of Reported
Alcohol Drinking Days
in the Previous Thirty
Days Prior to Assessment

Minimum
Tolerance

Where:
1.

2.

3.

-.13

i

i

Moving Violations

Partial Correlation Coefficient represents the relationship between the dependent
variable and the independent variable when all effects of other independent >
variables are removed.
Minimum Tolerance represents the smallest amount of unexplained v ariability in
the equation when the independent variable is added to those independent
variables in the equation.
Beta In represents the standardized regression coefficient if that independent
variable were added to the equation.

103
Table 14
A dditional Regression Statistics

Statistic

Value

Multiple r

.55

r Squared

.30

A d j u s t e d r squared

.28

Standard error of Equation

16.59

104
scores for each level of p r o b l e m classification,

as well

as the sample mean score and standard error for eac h variable.
A p p e n d i x B presents the Pearson C orrelation C oefficient
ob t a i n e d for the various combination of independent variables
to e a c h other.

However,

a limited number of the significant

findings are d i s cussed in this chapter.
combinations w i t h a significance level of

Independent variable
.05 or less are

di s c u s s e d below.
The following combinations of independent variables
d e m o n s t r a t e d a significance of

.05 or less for the Pearson

Co r r e l a t i o n Coefficient:
1.

Age and the reported number of alcohol d r i n k i n g

2.

Age and the number of moving violations.

3.

The repor t e d number of alcohol d r i n k i n g years

years.

and the number of r e p orted alcohol d r i n k i n g days

in the

previous thirty days prior to assessment.
4.

The repor t e d number of alcohol d r i n k i n g years

and the number of m o v i n g violations.
5.

The repor t e d number of alcohol d r i n k i n g years

and the number of a l c o h o l -related violations.
6.

The repor t e d number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

the previous thirty days prior to assessment

in

and the number

of m o v i n g violations.
7.

The repor t e d number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

in

the previous thirty days prior to assessment and the number
of reported motor vehicle a c c i d e n t s .

8 . The number

105
of m o v i n g violations and the

number of m o t o r vehi c l e
9.

The number

reported

accidents.

of m o v i n g violations and the

number

of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.
10.

The number

of a l c o h o l -related violations

and the

number of r e p o r t e d m o t o r vehicle accidents.
11.

The num b e r of reckless driving violations

and

the number of r e p o r t e d m o t o r vehicle accidents.

Summary

The analysis of the data pre s e n t e d in this chapter
provide b o t h d e s c r i p t i v e and predi c t i v e information on the
selected sample of young c o nvicted OUIL offenders.
of variance of the mea n scores of the eight
variables

independent

and the level of p r o b l e m classification d e termined

that the m e a n scores
dr i n k i n g years,
days

(8)

An analysis

for the reported number of alcohol

the number of r e p orted alcohol drinking

in the p r e vious thirty days prior to assessment,

number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

the

and the number of

r e p orted m o t o r v e h i c l e accidents were significant at the
.05 level or less.

These subhypotheses of the null hypothesis

1 were r e j e c t e d on the basis of the analysis of variance.
The Pearson Correl a t i o n Coefficient derived for the
r e l a t ionship of the global score on the Mortimer-Filkins
Test and eac h of the eight

independent variables demonstrated

that the r e p o r t e d number of m otor vehicle accidents,
number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

the

the number of reported

106
alcohol drinking days
to assessment,

in the previous thirty days prior

age of the individual,

and the number of

reported alcohol d r i n k i n g years were significant at the
.05 level.

The b l o o d alcohol concentration at the time

of arrest,

the number of reckless driv i n g violations,

and

the number of m o v i n g violations did not demonstrate significance
at the

.05 level.

These subhypotheses of hypothesis

2 were

sustained.
A predi c t i o n m o d e l for the global score on the MortimerFilkins Test was ge n e r a t e d from the ability of four of the
eight independent variables

to predict the global score.

The technique e m p l o y e d was multiple
develop the model.

linear r e gression to

This m e t h o d dete r m i n e d that the independent

variables w h i c h could be u t i lized wi t h i n the p r e d e t e r m i n e d
limit constraints were:
1.

The r e p o r t e d number of m otor vehicle accidents.

12.

The number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.

3.

The age of the individual.

4.

The r e p o r t e d number of alcoho l - d r i n k i n g years.

The remaining four

(4) variables could not s i g n ificantly

increase the amount of v a r iance e x p lained by the model.
The amount of v a r i a n c e exp l a i n e d by the p r ediction model
was d e termined to be appro x i m a t e l y

.30.

An analysis of

variance of the p r e d i c t i o n m o d e l dem o n s t r a t e d a linear r e l a t i o n ­
ship between the independent variables

and the global score

on the M o r t i m er-Filkins Test at less than the
cance level.

.01 s i g n i f i ­

107
The p r ediction m o d e l d e r i v e d can be r e p r e s e n t e d as follows:
Y = 101.57

+ 8.62

- 4.01 + .95

+ 2.53

(X3 ) + 3.27

(X^
+ .95

+ 15.82

+ 5.69

(X2 ) +

(X4 )

where
Y = global score on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test
X^ = the r e p o r t e d nu m b e r of m o t o r vehi c l e accidents
X 2 = the nu m b e r of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations
X^ = age
X 4 = the r e p o r t e d n u m b e r of alcohol d r i n k i n g y e a r s .

Other a d d i t i o n a l s i g n i ficant r e l a tionships were
fied from the analysis of the data.
the independent v a riables
at the

identi­

The relationships of

to e a c h other that were significant

.05 level as d e t e r m i n e d b y the Pearson Correlation

Coefficient are:
1.

Age to the r e p o r t e d number of alcohol drinking

years and the number of m o v i n g violations.
2.

The nu m b e r of r e p o r t e d alcohol d r i nking

years

related to the r e p o r t e d nu m b e r of alcohol d r i nking days
in the previous

t h i r t y days prior to assessment,

of m o v i n g violations,

the number

and the number of alco h o l - r e l a t e d

violations.
3.

The nu m b e r of r e p o r t e d alcohol d r i n k i n g

days

in

the previous thi r t y days p r i o r to assessment to the number
of mo v i n g violations,

the number of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

and the number of r e p o r t e d m o t o r vehicle accidents.

4.

108
The number of m o v i n g violations to the number

of alcohol- r e l a t e d violations and the number of reported
motor vehicle accidents.
5.

The number of a l cohol-related violations

to the

r e p orted number of m o t o r vehicle accidents.
6.

Finally,

the number of reckless d r i v i n g violations

to the r e p orted number of m otor vehicle accidents.
The analysis of the data pre s e n t e d in this chapter
s hould only be c o nsidered applicable to this selected sample
of young convicted OUIL offenders,

and are not necess a r i l y

to be generalized to a larger population.
conclusions,
chapter.

The summary,

and recommendations are p r e s e n t e d in the next

109
Footnotes

Paul J. Bloomers and Robert A. Forsyth, Elem e n t a r y
Statistical Methods in Psychology and E d u c a t i o n , 2nd ed.
(Boston:
H o u g h t o n - M i f f l i n Co., 1977). pp. 451-452.

Chapter ,V

Summary,

Findings,

Conclusions,

Recommendations,

and Discussion/Reflections

The p r i m a r y purpose of this study was to det e r m i n e
the f easibility of e s t a blishing a prediction m o d e l b y use
of regression analysis of the p r e - s elected descri p t i v e variables
w h i c h could prov i d e significant p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of pr o b l e m a t i c
drinking behav i o r to be cost effective in its applic a t i o n
prior to the M ortimer-Filkins
study ma y provide

Test.

Additionally,

this

information on the characteristics of

young OUIL offenders w h i c h ma y have application to the r e ­
education of these offenders to prevent subsequent similar
violations,

or enhance intervention techniques prior to

initial violations.
To achieve this purpose,

several investigations were

made to determine whet h e r or not a r e l a t ionship existed
betw e e n the following:
1.

The m e a n scores for each of the independent variables

and the level of p r o b l e m classification.
2.

The dependent variable,

Mo r t i m e r-Filkins Test,

the global score on the

and each of the independent variables

utilized in the study.
3.

The dependent variable and independent v a r iables

in the form of a m u l tiple linear regression.

110

Ill
A selected sample of 126 individuals convicted of
o p erating under the influence of intoxicating liquor was
o b t ained w i t h the cooper a t i o n of the Michigan 54th-B District
Court,

East Lansing,

Michigan.

The court probation officer

assigned to the assessment process
the data on the sample.

interviewed and collected

Sample inclusion required that

the assessment took p l a c e after April 1, 1983, but before
M a y 1,

1984,

available.

and that all information on the variables was
The sample data were coded and interpreted by

the investigator upon receipt from the 54th-B District Court.
The m a j o r hypotheses were tested using a two-tailed
analysis of variance,

Pearson C orrelation Coefficient,

and

mu l t i p l e linear r e g r e s s i o n analysis.

Major Findings

The following are the m ajor findings based upon the
analysis of the dat a from this
1.

A signif i c a n t difference in the mean scores for

the independent v a r i a b l e s :
accidents,

investigation:

reported number of motor vehicle

a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

and reported number

in the previous thirty days prior

to assessment e x i s t e d for the level of p r o b l e m classification
2.

A signif i c a n t r e l a t ionship existed between the

dependent varia b l e and these independent variables:
number of motor vehi c l e accidents,
age,

a l c o h o l -related violations

reported number of alcohol d r i nking years,

number of alcohol d r i n k i n g days

reported

and reported

in the previous thirty days

112

prior to assessment.
3.

A p r e d i c t i o n m odel for the dependent variable

was deri v e d using the following independent variables:
re p orted number of m o t o r vehicle accidents,
violations,

age,

alcohol-related

and the r e p orted number of alcohol d r i n k i n g

years.
4.

The b l o o d alcohol concentration at the time of

arrest did not s i g n i f i c a n t l y influence the dependent variable,
nor was there a s ignificant r e l a t ionship between the blood
alcohol c o n c e n t r a t i o n at the time of arrest and any of the
other variables.

A d ditional Findings

The f o llowing are the additional findings b a s e d upon
the analysis of dat a from this

investigation as p r e s e n t e d

b y the independent variable:

1.

No s ignificant difference in the mean age of eac h

level of p r o b l e m classification.
2.

There was

a significant relationship b e t w e e n age

and the r e p o r t e d number of alcohol d r i nking years.
3.

There was a significant relationship b e t w e e n age

and the number of m o v i n g violations.

113
Blood Alcohol Concentration at the Time of Arrest

1.

No s i g n i f i c a n t d i fference in the m ean blood alcohol

concentration of e a c h level of p r o b l e m classification.
2.

No s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p between the global

score on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s

Test and the b lood alcohol

concentration at the time of arrest.
3.

That b l o o d alcohol conce n t r a t i o n can not be used

to s i g n i f i c a n t l y increase the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of the regression
model.

Reported Number of Alco h o l Drinking Years

1.

There was

a significant rel a t i o n s h i p between the

reported number of alco h o l d r i n k i n g years and the number
of r e p orted alco h o l d r i n k i n g days

in the previous thirty

days prior to assessment.
2.

There was

a significant rel a t i o n s h i p between the

reported number of alco h o l drink i n g years and the number
of m o v i n g violations.
3.

There was

a significant rel a t i o n s h i p between the

reported number of a l c o h o l d r i nking years and the number
of a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations.

Reported Number of Alcohol Drinking Days

in the Previous

Thirty Days Prior to Assessment

1.

That the nu m b e r of r e p o r t e d alcohol drinking days

in the previous t h i r t y days p rior to assessment can not

114
be used to s i g n i f i c a n t l y increase the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of
the regression model.
2.

There was

a significant r e l a t ionship between the

repor t e d number of alcohol d r i nking days

in the previous

thirty days prior to assessment and the number of moving
violations.
3.

There was a significant r e l a t ionship between the

reported number of alcohol d r i nking days

in the previous

thirty days prior to assessment and the number of reported
motor vehicle a c c i d e n t s .

Number of Moving Violations

1.

That the number of mo v i n g violations can not be

used to signi f i c a n t l y increase the p r e d i c t a b i l i t y of the
regression model.
2.

There was

a significant r e l a tionship between the

number of moving v iolati ons

and the number of alcohol-related

violations.
3.

There is a significant r e l a tionship between the

number of mo v i n g violati ons

and the number of reported motor

vehicle accidents.

Number of A l c o h o l - R e l a t e d Violations

1.

There was

a significant r e l a t ionship between the

number of a l c o h o l -related violations
motor vehicle accidents.

and the number of reported

115
Number of Reckless Driving Violations

1.

No s ignificant d i f f e r e n c e in the mean number of

reckless driving viola t i o n s

and eac h level of p r o b l e m c l a s s i ­

fication .
2.

No signif i c a n t r e l a t i o n s h i p betw e e n the global

score on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s

Test and the number of reckless

d riving violations.
3.

That the nu m b e r of reckless driving violations

can not be used to s i g n i f i c a n t l y increase the pr e d i c t a b i l i t y
of the regression model.

Conclusions

1.

The data indicates that at the

.05 level of s i g n i f i ­

cance individuals w i t h a global score less than 59 differ
from individuals s c o r i n g greater than 59 on b o t h their drinking
and driving behavior.
2.

A score above

59 was

a s sociated w i t h a greater

number of years of alcohol drinking,
more involvement

more frequent drinking,

in a l c o h o l - r e l a t e d violations and a greater

number of motor v e h i c l e accidents.

Together these describe

a greater likelihood of p r o b l e m drinking.
3.
values

For a score of 59 or less there were lower reported

for number of years of alcohol drinking,

drinking,

less

involvement

less frequent

in alco h o l - r e l a t e d violations,

and fewer numbers of m otor vehicle accidents w h i c h indicates
less problematic alcohol d r i n k i n g behavior.

It is proposed

116
that this subgroup's behavior is p o t e n t i a l l y amenable through
more traditional didactic forms of intervention rather than
group counseling r e s erved for more serious p r o b l e m drinkers.
4.

The analysis of the data for this

appears to have sustained the belief
and accidents,

investigation

in the role of alcohol

as w ell as to relate this driving behav i o r

to the level of proble m a t i c drinking behavior.
5.

An interpretation of the analysis of data p e r t a i n i n g

to the relationship of mov i n g violations

to accidents

and

alcohol-related violations suggests that a possible e xplanation
is that as problems w i t h driving behavior increase,

so does

the likelihood of p roblematic drinking b e h a v i o r increase,
although this g e n e ralization requires
6.

further investigation.

It is p o s sible to state that for this selected

sample the r e l a t ionship of drinking b e h avior to problems
w i t h driving behavior does exist.

S p e c i f i c a l l y the r e l a t i o n ­

ship of the length of the alcohol drinking experience and
freque ncy of drinking are correlated to m o v i n g violations
and alcohol-related violations.

The exact nature of the

relationship is unclear at this time.
7.

The analysis of the data d e m o n strated age to be

correlated to the number of alcohol drinking years,
as mov i n g violations.

as well

A possible explanation for the r e l a t i o n ­

ship is that it m a y be more the result of the older the
individual the greater the likelihood that such violations
are incurred.

117
8.

The relationship of age to the global score on

the M o rtimer-Filkins Test appears to suggest that the younger
the individual at the time of assessment,

the greater the

influence on p r o b l e m a t i c behavior.
9.

A predi c t i o n m o d e l for the M/F . s c o r e can be d e ­

veloped using the independent variables,

and that the im­

portance of driving b e h a v i o r and d r i n k i n g b e h avior are r e ­
flected in the model.
10.

An important c o nclusion of this study was that

the b lood alcohol conce n t r a t i o n at the time of arrest could
not show a significant d ifference in the level of problem
classification.

Additionally,

blood alcohol concentration

failed to demonstrate a significant rela t i o n s h i p to the
global score on the Mortim e r - F i l k i n s Test,
other seven

(7)

independent variables,

or any of the

nor was b lood alcohol

concentration able to s i g n i f i c a n t l y improve the amount of
variance

in the global score as exp l a i n e d b y the prediction

model.
The data appear to be at o p position to conclusions
about the relationship of b l o o d alcohol concentration at
the time of arrest and the level of p r o b l e m a t i c drinking
behavior reac h e d by other investigators.
that,

"First,

Blount has stated

one can not predict wh o will or will not complete

treatment on the basis of age,

B A C , or M/ F score,

that the latter two are quite robust
w i t h alcohol."'*'

and second

indicators of problems

Reis has also stated the importance of

b lood alcohol concentration

in the identification of problem

drinkers.

2

118
As repor t e d e a r l i e r m

the re v i e w of literature,

blood alcohol c o n c e n t r a t i o n at the time of arrest has been
utilized in d e t e r m i n i n g p r o b l e m a t i c d r i nking behavior.
However,

for this y o u n g

of convicted offenders

(ages

25 or less)

selected sample

this concl u s i o n seems to be absent.

A possible e xplanation for this observ a t i o n m a y be the young
person's

inexperience w i t h alcohol,

of the individual to d e t e r m i n e
alcohol concentrations.

and a concomitant

inability

levels of impairing blood

If this explan a t i o n

methods of e d u cating individuals

is correct,

in the ability to m e a n i n g f u l l y

detect impairing levels of b l o o d alcohol concentrations
are essential.

Recommendat ions

General

1.

The r e l a tionships b e t w e e n the eight

(8)

independent

variables and the level of p r o b l e m classif i c a t i o n should
be utilized to s trengthen the assessment of young convicted
OUIL offenders.
»

2.

High school personnel,

including not only driver

education instructors and hig h school counselors,

but all

levels of school p e r s o n n e l should be made aware of the r e l a t i o n ­
ship of the eight independent variables to pot e n t i a l p r o b ­
lematic behavior.
4.

Assessment p e r s o n n e l from the various agencies

and state court systems sh o u l d be appraised of the relationship

119
of the eight independent variables to the assessment of
young convicted OUIL offenders.
5.

A needs assessment of state per s o n n e l responsible

for the assessment of young OUIL offenders should be conducted
w i t h the purpose in m ind of d e t e r m i n i n g the need for either
inservice education or formalized c o ursework in procedures
for the assessment process to become more cost-effective.
6.

Juvenile pro b a t i o n officers should be appraised

of the r e l a t ionship of the eight independent variables to
the level of p r o b l e m classification.

Research

1.

A study should be c o nducted to include a m u c h

larger ra n d o m sample of y oung
OUIL offenders

(ages 25 or less)

convicted

for the purpose of sust a i n i n g or improving

the p r ediction model.
2.
variables

The fe a s i b i l i t y of uti l i z i n g the eight independent
in identifying pot e n t i a l y oung OUIL offenders

should be investigated for the purp o s e of improving early
intervention.
3.

A search for other r e a d i l y available

independent

variables should take place for the purpose of increasing
the strength of the p r ediction m o d e l to make

it more cost-

effective in application.
4.

Individuals

c l assified according to their p r o b ­

lematic drinking b e h a v i o r should be included in a follow
up investigation to determine

if changes occur in that said

120

classification with time.
5.

A quasi-experimental

ducted to d e termine

investigation should be c o n ­

if the cut off score of the level of

p r o b l e m c l a s s i f i c a t i o n as d e t e r m i n e d b y the global score
on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test can be reduced while still
m a i n t a i n i n g a hig h degree of r e l i a b i l i t y and validity.
6.

An invest i g a t i o n b y factor analysis of the responses

to the content of the Morti m e r - F i l k i n s Test should be made
for the purpose of id e n t i f y i n g significant behav i o r a l items.

Discussion

A l t h o u g h there is a w e a l t h of information on human
use of ethanol as a m a t t e r of choice,

perhaps tracable

to the earliest of r e c o r d e d h i storical times,

m u c h remains

to be d i s c o v e r e d about the interaction of the my r i a d of
variables

that affect the outcome of drinking behavior.

The role of the p a r t i c u l a r soci e t y wi t h i n w h i c h the individual
lives wil l g r e a t l y influence w h e t h e r alcohol is available
in the first place,

as w ell as contribute to the formation

of the a cceptable b o u n d a r i e s of the use of alcohol.
v ar y in their b o u n d a r i e s , and so the resultant

Societies

impact of

the use of alcohol on the society is generally only predictable
in a v e r y omnibus manner.

W hile the norm boundaries

lead

to some p r e d i c t a b l e general i z a t i o n about the population
as a whole,

no s uch p r e d i c t i o n is available for any one

specific individual.

121

Furthermore,

the c o llection of information on individual

characteristics of persons

s u f fering negative consequences

from their drinking b e h a v i o r at present only provides

a

modest prediction of subsequent d r i n k i n g behavior problems.
This

is not to discount the value of data collections on

the characteristics of persons who are at high risk to e n ­
counter negative consequences

from drinking,

liability of those data remains

somewhat

but the r e ­

in question.

The

r eliability of p r ediction models needs to be validated by
appropriately designed q u a s i - e x p e r i m e n t a l longitudinal studies
b ased on some firmly founded th e o r e t i c a l models.
such studies are conducted,

Until

the question of whether descriptive

characteristics are c o n t r i b u t o r y or ex post facto consequences
of drinking behavior remains unanswered.
The lack of theore t i c a l paradigms

is not the problem;

there is a sufficient su p p l y of available models to choose
from.

Until r e c ently these models were specific to some

p a rticular discipline from an a p p r o priate natural or social
science.

Each discipline has been ov e r l y zealous

in fostering

its own theoretical position,

often to the point of total

exclusion of other paradigms.

Suc h limited thinking has

p r e vented the serious development of a unified multivariate
theoretical model,

e x p l a i n i n g the p h e n o m e n o l o g y of alcohol

use in the form of human consumption.

O nly recently have

a few theoretical models been p r o p o s e d that

include the

major identified influencers of d r i n k i n g behavior.
these models still lack the test of time,

A l t hough

they are a b e ginning

122

in the correct direction,

but still more refinement

is needed.

While the idiosyncrosies of drinking behavior change
w i t h time,

b o t h in an individual and societal sense,

the

use of alcohol has bee n in existence for a lengthy time
period and can reaso n a b l e be expected to continue for a
like period.

It sh o u l d be the goal of all individuals c o n ­

cerned about the consequences of alcohol use to minimize
the negative effects b y w o r k i n g towards a unified m odel
of the p h e n o m e n o l o g y of drink i n g w h i c h intervenes at the
earliest

possible stage of abuse.

A l t h o u g h youthful drinkers

have formed the specific s u b p opulation cited throughout
these chapters,

similar arguments could be made for early

p rim a r y prevention w i t h other subpopulations of drinkers.
Primary prevention models are better suited to targeting
smaller,
cycle.

more specific time points within the human life
C o n c e n t r a t i n g on b r i n g i n g about change in smaller

subpopulations,

such as d r i nking drivers,

the needs of that point
ment advantages.

w h i c h reflect

in the life cycle w ill offer m a n a g e ­

It is p r i m a r y p revention that is more

cost effective than s e c o n d a r y or tertiary programs.

Reflections

Ha v i n g d i scussed long range goals within the p r e ceding
section,

the author wishes to reflect upon some immediate

applications that m ight be undertaken b y those having influence
wit h the young d r i nking driver problem.

123
Throughout the course of study in prepar a t i o n for the
completion of this t e r m i n a l degree prog r a m several concerns
relating to alcohol use and its sequalae of problems became
evident.

These concerns

the school,

focu s e d on the roles of the police,

the state and the family as agents in the prim a r y

preven tion of alco h o l problems

among youth.

These organizations

have an o p p o r t u n i t y e a r l y in the total development of an
individual to influence d r i n k i n g practices of moderation
to prevent

later alco h o l abuse problems.

However,

while

there have b een attempts to stre n g t h e n the influence of
these organ i z a t i o n s

on y o u t h f u l d r i nking practices,

much

remains to be accomplished.
As an example,
an immediate

the police are in a position to have

impact on y o u t h f u l drinking,

yet police officers

frequently v i e w d r i n k i n g b y those under the legal drinking
age as harmless,
behavior.

perhaps

In addition,

length of p a p e r w o r k

officers m a y be discou r a g e d by the

involved in citing an under age person

for illegal drinking,
"cooperative."

as a r eflection of their own youthful

e s p e c i a l l y if the individual has been

A d d i t i o n a l court time m a y discourage the

officer to go b e y o n d a h a r s h admonishment,
understandable
the minor's

w hile this

is

it can onl y serve to p o s i t i v e l y reinforce

c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n of a universal a c c e ptability

of youthful drinking.

Police officers must be encouraged

to legally intervene to assure that the offender clearly
understands

the s eriousness of the behavior.

124
Furthermore,

various

state depa r t m e n t a l organizations

have been provi d e d w i t h the legal powers
in p r i m a r y prevention.
Commission

(LCC)

For example,

to act as agents

the Liquor Control

is vested w i t h the a u thority to enforce

laws r egulating the control and d i s t r ibution of alcoholic
beverages.

Their use of these powers can either increase

or decrease the avai l a b i l i t y of alcoholic beverages to m i n o r s .
By encouraging stricter enforcement of laws restri c t i n g
the sale of alcoholic beverages
sanctions,

and the employment of empowered

the LCC can reduce alcohol a v a i l a b i l i t y to minors,

a lthough it w o u l d be naive to see this action as the complete
"cure"

for the problem.

adherence to

"Dram Shop"

Additionally,

the LCC can encourage

legislation b y the various purveyors

of alcoholic b e v e r a g e s .
A long w i t h the LCC,

the Department of the S e c retary

of State has the ability to i d e ntify p o t e n t i a l drinking
drivers thro u g h its driver licensing records.

The utilization

of current state of the art methods to identify potential
p r o b l e m drinking drivers,

e s p e c i a l l y youthful drivers,

prior

to the occurence of serious consequences makes this agency
suitable for a role in p r i m a r y prevention.
of r e s earch findings
for a forward impetus

The application

in early identification can provide
in efforts to reduce the number of

youthful d r i nking d r i v e r s .
The school is in an advantageous position to influence
youthful drinking practices.

However,

to date this position

has either been ignored or given mini m a l compliance.

The

125
effort of e d u c a t i o n a l systems has been to segregate alcohol
education into d i s c r e t e units of instruction reserved for
specialized times or courses,
education.

suc h as health or driver

Most often the instruction is cognitive

in nature,

although in some instances attempts at affect modification
are made.

Rarely is there an effort to change existing

behavior b y f o r m a l i z e d methods
The school needs

in an educational setting.

to assume an active role in primary

prevention of alco h o l abuse e a r l y on in the formal schooling
of youth.

This sho u l d b egin no later than the fourth or

fifth grade and emp h a s i z e decisions p e r t a i n i n g to the use
of alcohol.

However,

it is u nrealistic to vie w this effort

as b e i n g one to c over a lifetime.

Research suggests that

drinking practices change over a lifetime.
attention must be on the point

The focus of

in time when the schools

can influence the youth.
The school is also p r e s e n t e d w i t h an o pprotunity to
identify and assist p o t e n t i a l alcohol abusers among its
students.

Too o ften this o p p o r t u n i t y is ignored,

perhaps

it is too e asy to d e n y the exi s t e n c e of such problems among
the students even t h o u g h a small but significant portion
show signs of alcohol abuse.

Administrators,

counselors,

and teachers need to a c t i v e l y p a r t i c i p a t e in reducing the
risk of alcohol abuse among s t u d e n t s .
The org a n i z a t i o n w i t h the greatest opportunity to
p ractice p r i m a r y p r e v e n t i o n

is the family.

closer to the p r o b l e m than the family,

No entity is

and it begins w ith

126
parental drinking practices.

Parental m o d e r a t i o n of drinking

behavior and an emphasis on the r e s p o n s i b i l i t i e s of drinking
can encourage an appropriate m o d e l for children.

In addition,

parents need to moni t o r the b e h avior of their children and
exert p a r ental authority when necessary.
Finally,

it is necessary to be r e m i n d e d that abstinence

is a viable alternative.

As a soci e t y abst i n e n c e should

be e n couraged for those who see it as an appropriate behavior,
abstinence should not be viewed as a n y thing but normal.
S ociety sets the tone for its members behavior.
Education has a role in p r i m a r y p r e v e n t i o n as not only
a vehicle of awareness but a means b y w h i c h b e h a v i o r can
be changed in a positive direction.

E d u c a t i o n requires

a commitment from all members of a soci e t y to be successful.

127
Footnotes

W i l l i a m R. Blount, "The Effect of Drinking Driver R e ­
habilit ation Efforts on Rearrests W h e n Drinking Type is C o n ­
trolled" DWI Reeducation and Rehabilitation Programs-Success ful Results and the Future (Falls Church, AA A Foundation
for Traffic Safety, 1983) p. 35.
2

Ray Reis, "The Traffic Safety Impact of DUI education and
Coun s e l i n g Programs,"
DWI Reeducation and Rehabilitation Programs--S u c c e s s f u l Results and the Future (Falls Church, AAA
Foundation for Traffic Safety, 1983) p. 43.

APPENDICES

APPENDIX A

Means for All Variables b y Level of Problem
C l a s s i f i c a t i o n Sample, and the Standard Error
of the Sample Mean

APPENDIX A
Means for All Variables by Level of Problem Classification Sample,
and the Standard Error of the Sample Mean

Social
Drinkers
N=113

Excessive
Drinkers
N=10

Problem
Drinkers
N=3

Sample
Mean
N=126

Standard
Error

Score on Mortimer-Filkins
Test

31.48

69.10

115.33

36.46

1.74

Age

21.27

21.50

19.00

21.23

.18

Blood Alcohol Concentration

14 .97

15.90

14.67

15.04

.26

5.17

5.01

6.60

5.18

.18

4.94

6.40

10.33

5.18

.35

2.68

3.50

3.67

2.77

.22

Number of Alcohol Related
Violations

.02

.50

.33

.06

.03

Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

.01

.09

.00

.02

.01

Number of Motor Vehicle
Accidents

.20

.40

1.67

.25

.05

Number of Reported Alcohol
Drinking Years
Number of Reported Alcohol
Drinking Days in the P r e ­
vious Thirty Days Prior
to Assessment
Number of Moving Violations

APPENDIX B

Pearson C o r r e l a t i o n Coefficient Values for
Various C o m b i nations of the Eight Independent Variables

APPENDIX B
Pearson Correlation Coefficient Values for Various Combinations
of the Eight Independent Variables

Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient

Independent Variable

Age

Blood Alcohol
Concentration

.11

.01

.10

When Alcohol First
Began

.61

.37

>.01

The Number of Reported
Alcohol Drinking Days
in the Previous Thirty
Days Prior to
Assessment

.12

.01

.09

Number of Moving
Violations

.31

.09

>.01

Number of AlcoholRelated Vilations

.09

>.01

.16

Number of Reckess
Driving Violations

.05

>.01

.29

-.63

>.01

.24

.01

.01

.47

Number of Reported Motor
Vehicle Accidents

Blood Alcohol
Concentration

When Alcohol Drinking
First Began

r squared

Significance
of r

Dependent Variable

APPENDIX B--Continued

Dependent Variable

Independent Variable
The Number of Reported
Alcohol Drinking Days
in the Previous Thirty
Days Prior to Assessment

When Alcohol
Drinking First
Began

Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient

r Squared

Significance
of r

>.01

>.01

.47

The Number of
Moving Violations

.08

>.01

.19

The Number of AlcoholRelated Violations

.14

.02

.06

The Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

>.01

>.01

.49

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.11

>.01

.12

The Number of Reported
Alcohol Drinking Days
in the Previous Thirty
Days Prior to
Assessment

.29

.08

>.01

The Number of Moving
Violations

.38

.14

>.01

The Number of AlcoholRelated Violations

.23

.05

>.01

APPENDIX B--Continued

Dependent Variable

The Number of R e ­
ported Alcohol
Drinking Days in the
Previous Thirty
Days Prior to
Assessment

Independent Variable

r Squared

Significance
of r

The Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

.05

>.01

.28

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.03

>.01

.37

The Number of Moving
Violations

.16

.02

.04

The Number of
Alcohol-Related
Violations

.20

.04

.01

>.01

>.01

.40

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.26

.07

> .01

The Number of AlcoholRelated Violations

.16

.03

.03

The Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

.01

>.01

.45

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.36

.13

.01

The Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

The Number of
Moving Violations

Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient

APPENDIX B--Continued

Dependent Variable

Independent Variable

The Number of
Alcohol-Related
Violations

The Number of Reckless
Driving Violations

The Number of
Reckless Driving
Violations

Pearson
Correlation
Coefficient

r Squared

Significance
of r

>.01

>.01

.37

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.24

.06

>.01

The Number of Reported
Motor Vehicle Accidents

.16

.02

.04

APPENDIX C

The Mortimer-Filkins Test

P L E A S E NOTE:

C o p y rig h te d m a te r ia ls in th is d o c u m e n t
h a v e n o t b e e n film e d a t th e r e q u e s t of
t h e a u th o r . T h e y a r e a v a ila b le fo r
c o n s u lta tio n , h o w e v e r, in th e a u th o r ’s
u n iv e rsity library.

T h e s e c o n s is t of p a g e s :

M ortimer-Filkins Questionnaire

University
Microfilms
International
3 0 0 N Z e e b R d ., A nn A rbor, Ml 4 8 1 0 6 (313) 761-4700

Appendix C

APPENDIX D

The Pearson Correlation Method, M u l t i p l e Regression,
and Residual Analysis

D1

A PPENDIX D

The Pearson Correlation Method

The Pearson me t h o d ma y be s y m b o l i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t e d

1

as f o l l o w s :

r:
= E x .y .
x,y
iJ i
NS S
x y

where
X.

1

= X.

1

- X

Y. = Y. - Y
l

S
S
N

x

y

l

= standard deviation of X
= standard deviation of Y
= number of cases

The Importance of the r Squared Value

The r squared value is of parti c u l a r importance since
it represents the amount of variance in the dependent variable
explained by the independent variable.

The significance

and pr o b a b i l i t y values of r represent the b e h a v i o r of a
p a rticular

statistic if the value was drawn from a normal

bivariate d i s t r ibution in the population.

Since the true

population value can not be known exactly,

the significance

and pr o b a b i l i t y values of the sample represent the result
of hypothesis testing.

D2
Multiple Regression

The multiple r e g r e s s i o n equation e m p loyed was d e veloped
from a model s y m b o l i c a l l y represented:

Y.

1

- a = b.x, . + b nx~ . + ---- + b, x. .
1 li
2 2i
h hi

where

y^ = dependent variable
a

= intercept

b

= slope of independent variable

x

= value of independent variable
2
as found in Hays.

Stepwise Method of Entry

Stepwise e n t r y requires

that the computer select the

independent variable to be entered b y their ability to explain
the variance
limit

in the dependent v a r iable until a p r e d e t e r m i n e d

is achieved.

W h e n this

limit

is achieved the selection

process stops and any r e m a i n i n g independent variables
left out of the model.
was the SPSS default

are

The limit s e l ected for this m odel

limit,

w i t h a default value of the

F-statistic at 3.84 and an a s sociated p r o b a b i l i t y value
of

.05.

D3
Partial C o r r e l a t i o n Coefficient,

Squared and

M u l tiple r Statistics

The partial c o r r e l a t i o n c oefficient
not in the equation repre s e n t s

(r) of the variable

the square root of the r e ­

lationship of that p a r t i c u l a r v a r i a b l e to the global score
on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s Test
variables

are removed.

v ariable represents

if the influence of all

Thus the r

squared value for

the amount of varia n c e

other
the

in the global

score explained b y that variable.
The Multiple r is the square
r squared value repr e s e n t s

root of r squared.

the amount of variance

global score on the M o r t i m e r - F i l k i n s
multiple linear r e g r e s s i o n equation.
value represents
population.

The

in the

Test exp l a i n e d b y the
The adjusted r squared

an attempt to fit the m odel to the general

The s t a n d a r d e rror of the equation is also

presented.

Analysis

of Residuals

Residuals r e p r e s e n t that p o r t i o n of the variab i l i t y
in the dependent v a r i a b l e not e x p l a i n e d by the regression
model.

Again the SPSS p r o g r a m was u t i lized in the residual

analysis.

The m e t h o d s e l e c t e d was the stepwise procedure

used in the de v e l o p m e n t of the m u l t i p l e linear regression
equation.

Table 15 presents

the analysis of variance for

the regression e q u a t i o n under the heading:
Equation Analysis

of Variance.

Multiple

Regression

This statistic represents

D4
w het h e r there is a linear relationship b e t w e e n the dependent
variable and the set of independent variable.

As pre s e n t e d

in Table 15 the F-statistic value is 12.25 w i t h an a s sociated
significance of less that

>.01 indicating a strong r e l a t i o n ­

ship between the dependent variable and the independent
variables.
A further analysis of residual statistics
the dependent variable,

involving

the global score on the Mo r t i m e r -

Filkins Test is p r e s e n t e d in Table 16 under the heading:
Analysis of Residual Statistics of the Dependent Variable.
The results demons t r a t e the amount of v a r i a b i l i t y between
the pre d i c t e d value for the dependent v a r i a b l e from the
multiple linear regre s s i o n m odel and the actual observed
values of the dependent variable.

The various statistics

pr e s e n t e d represents the influence of unusual observations
on the p r ediction model,
true errors

as well as the estimate of the

involved w i t h the regression model.

The c o r r e ­

lation of these true errors can be est i m a t e d by use of the
Durbin-Watson test statistic.
Watson test statistic value was

For this m odel the Durbin1.95.

This value does

that there is a t e n d e n c y toward a serial correlation of
the error terms

in a positive direction.

indicate

Table 15
Multiple Regression Analysis of Variance

Regression

Degrees of
Freedom

Sum of Squares

Mean Square

3

11002.48

3667.49

F

12.25
Residuals

122

36518.82

Significance
of F

>.01

299.33

o

Table 16
Analysis of Residuals Statistics of the Dependent Variables

Number of
cases

Maximum

Unstandardized
Predicted values

11.77

83.03

36.46

10.67

126

Standardized
Predicted Values

-2.31

4.36

.00

1.00

126

1.63

10.88

2.98

1.43

126

10.43

98.23

36.41

10.97

126

Mahalanobis Distance

.21

52.83

3.97

6.41

126

Cook's Distance

.00

1.07

.02

.11

126

-27.65

70.01

.00

16.32

126

Standardized Residuals

-1.67

4.22

.00

.98

126

Studentized Residuals

-1.74

4.70

.00

1.03

126

Deleted Residuals

-38.23

86.88

.05

17.95

126

Studentized
Deleted Residuals

-1.75

5.18

.01

1.05

126

Standard Error of
the Predicted Values
Adjusted Predicted
Values

Unstandardized Residuals

Mean

Standard
Deviation

Minimum

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p. 439.

2

W i l l i a m L. Hays, S t a t i s t i c s , 3rd ed.,
Rinehart, and Winston, 1973). p. 475.

(New York:

Holt,

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