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Ann Arbor, MI 48106 PATHWAYS OUT: CAREER PATTERNS OF THREE COHORTS FROM A REMOTE COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN By Sue-Wen Lean A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Department of Sociology 1992 ABSTRACT PATHWAYS OUT: CAREER PATTERNS OF THREE COHORTS FROM A REMOTE COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN By Sue-Wen Lean Utilizing a unique, longitudinal data-set, this study explored the changing migration patterns of rural youth from Ontonagon Peninsula. County, a remote The 1957/58, corner of Michigan's 1968 and 1974 Ontonagon high school graduating classes had been follow-up for almost Their migration Upper histories paralleled the 3 0 years. underlying socioeconomic changes experienced by people in this region, whose economic activities are primarily dependent on one or two extractive industries (i.e. copper and pulpwood). The most striking characteristic of Ontonagon migration is the consistent and persistent outflow of young people from the region. The pursuit of further education has always been a main motivation for their departure. Scholastic performance in high school had a crucial, positive effect on the migration propensity of Ontonagon males. In the case of females, social class origin was an especially important factor in specifying the scholastic performance effect on migration propensity. A strong class effect was evidenced among Ontonagon males but diminished significantly in later years. Sue-Wen Lean A positive observed class effect for both male and on propensity to female migrants. return However, is for Ontonagon males, time was a conditional factor after 1974 that reversed the class effect, consequently composition and volume of return migration. affecting the Returnees from upper class families who moved back before 1975 had greater tendency to stay than had their lower class counterparts. The volume of return migration for Ontonagon females over the years had been relatively smaller than that of Ontonagon males. No significant changes occurred in the attributes of female returnees except the 1968 females. However, there has been a modest increase in volume of returned migration among female migrants recently. Counterstream migration is always associated with out­ migration from rural areas, but this has often been neglected by migration research. My study shows that the character of return migration is a very important consideration, especially when the socioeconomic conditions at the place of origin are experiencing enormous transformations over time, as they have in Ontonagon. migration from From this my study, rural one area thing has is very brought clear: about a redistribution of social capital to the advantage of downstate Michigan. To my mother, Lu Shun-Shia A courageous women who has overcome enormous obstacles in life just for her families. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish advisor, to extend my deepest gratitude to my major Professor Harry K. Schwarzweller, for his patient, insightful, and enlightening guidance throughout my long, difficult academic career here at Michigan State University. It is my highest honor to have him as a mentor in this ever impersonal academic environment where the old Greek traditions of intellectual learning are disappearing. Without him, this dissertation would not have been completed. I am also greatly indebted to Professors J. Allan Beegle and Chris K. Vanderpool, during the critical University. student of I am for they fought hard on my behalf period of my tenure really Professor J. blessed Allan to be at Michigan the Beegle. last He State graduate started the Ontonagon Project more than three decades ago. My special thanks also go to Professors Bernard Finifter, Brendan P. Mullan and Rita S. comments on this very unique Gallin study; for their and to my helpful friend, Dr. Nancy Buffenbarger for her wonderful proof-reading. I also want to express my warmest appreciation to Mrs. Liz Schwarzweller. their families. She and Harry make us feel like part of Finally, I am v extremely grateful to my husband, Alex, parents, my my sister, children, and my supports and understandings. vi Andrea and Christopher, brother for their my patience, TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Tables CHAPTER 1 ix RESEARCH PERSPECTIVES AND APPROACH Problem Introduction ............................. Career Patterns, Opportunity Structures and Rural Labor Markets ........................... Social Class, Scholastic Performance and Migration ..................................... Study Populations ............................... Procedures ....................................... CHAPTER 2 ONTONAGON COUNTY: THE CHANGING MIGRATION CONTEXT Early History .................................... .............. Changing Employment Opportunities Diversifying Local Economy ...................... Looking Ahead .................................... CHAPTER 3 MIGRATION HISTORIES AND PATHWAYS OUT Migration Histories ............................. Imperatives for Initial Out-migration .......... Initial Out-migration and Migration Histories .. Overview ......................................... vii 1 1 4 13 17 19 22 26 29 34 38 42 43 50 59 65 Page CHAPTER 4 MIGRATION OF SOCIAL CAPITAL Social Class Origin and Scholastic Performance Level ................. Migration Imperatives and Social Class ......... Migration Histories, Social Class and Educational/ Work Attainments ............... Migration Imperatives and Scholastic Performance Migration Histories, Scholastic Performance and ............... Educational/ Work Attainments Overview ......................................... CHAPTER 5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Ontonagon Migration: An Overview ............... General Conclusions ............................. Future Research .................................. BIBLIOGRAPHY 69 71 74 84 91 96 108 111 112 122 131 133 viii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1- L. Number of Respondents by Gender and Cohort Table 2- L. Important Historical Events of Ontonagon 19 24-26 Table 3- L. Migration Histories by Cohort and Gender Table 3- I. Imperatives for Initial Out-migration for Ontonagon County, by Gender/Cohort 44 51 Table 3- 5. Percentage of Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) Aspiring for A Professional Career, by Gender/Cohort 54 Table 3- I. Percentage of Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) Expecting to Have Attained A Professional Career Twenty Years After Graduation, by Gender/Cohort 54 Table 3- 5. Male Migrants: Migration Histories, by Imperatives for Initial Out-migration from Ontonagon County and Cohort 60 Table 3- 5. Female Migrants: Migration Histories, by Imperatives for Initial Out-migration from Ontonagon County and Cohort 63 Table 3- 7. Table 3-, Table 4- Residence Location of Present Migrants ("Migrant Now"), by Gender/Cohort 65 Community Evaluation by Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) by Gender/Cohort 68 L. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Ranked in Upper Half of School Class on Performance, by Family SES and Cohort/Gender ix 73 Page Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table Table -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. Migration Imperative, by Family SES and Gender/Cohort 75 Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Initial Migration Imperative, Family SES and Gender/Cohort 79 Migration Histories, by Family SES and Gender/Cohort 86 Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Place of Residence, Family SES an Gender/Cohort 88 Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Attaining A Professional Career, by Place of Residence, Family SES and Gender/Cohort 89 Migration Imperative, by High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort 93 Migration Histories, by High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort 97 Migration Histories, by High School Graduation Rank, Family SES and Gender/Cohort 100 -10. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Place od Residence, High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort 103 -11. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Attaining A Professional Career by Place of Residence, High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort 105 X Chapter 1. Research Perspectives and Approach Problem Introduction Ontonagon County is in the remote northwestern corner of Michigan's Upper Peninsula and from early in its settlement history young people from Ontonagon have migrated out to find employment, to advance their education, to join the military, to fulfill marriage obligations or simply to get away from the north country isolation. My research, utilizing a unique, longitudinal data-set, aims to explore the changing patterns of Ontonagon migration. From the very beginning Ontonagon's socioeconomic development and growth depended on mining and timber (and more recently, pulp.) attracted eastern These extractive capitalists, industries Chicago initially investment bankers, absentee landlords, adventurers, and immigrants from the old world. But, when copper prices plunged or copper ore deposits elsewhere were cheaper to exploit, and when the abundance of pines, hardwoods and hemlocks eventually started to dwindle, Ontonagon suffered difficult. Peninsula Settlers have long and life and in the communities experienced (Gates 1951; Martin 1986). cycles north in became Michigan's of "Boom more Upper or Bust" With the reopening of the White Pine copper mine in 1954, Ontonagon County became an economic bright spot in the Upper Peninsula. But again in late 1975 copper despair prices plummeted and worker 1 led to a long 2 strike in 1977 (Labor Market Review: Upper Peninsula, November 1977). Further, the pulpwood industry in impacts on local loggers can no almost the total region communities. mechanization had enormously Independent longer compete with outside or of the negative part-time contractors to supply the paper mill's increasing demand for wood chips. How these distinctive local labor market circumstances have affected the lives of Ontonagon young people and consequently have influenced the stability and long-range socioeconomic development of the Ontonagon community are main concerns in my study. The research reported here compares the migration and career attainment patterns of the 1957/58, Ontonagon high school graduating classes. 1968 and 1974 These three cohorts had been followed-up over a period of almost 3 0 years. result, As a this longitudinal data-set allows me to investigate whether changes in the labor market conditions in Ontonagon have had any bearing on differences among the three cohorts in migration permits patterns me to and more career attainments. accurately delineate Moreover, it variations of migration experiences of young people from Ontonagon. I am able not only to ascertain motivational imperatives that gave rise to their initial out-migration from Ontonagon, but also to take into account whether or not the migrants eventually returned assess, to for Ontonagon. Return migration it affects the potential is important for development to in a 3 remote rural community. Viewed as a rural local labor market area, Ontonagon county indeed has experienced enormous changes over the last four decades. Essentially, Ontonagon has been transformed from an agricultural community into a rural industrial town where the mine, the paper mill and the shipyard (the most recent effort at diversifying local economy) are the primary employers. Rapid employment growth in the service sector and increasing labor force participation of rural women created additional changes in the local labor market. Given the extractive nature of economic activities in the county, which is also characteristic of many local rural labor market areas, we are led to ask about the process of status attainment of young women when so few of them are employed in those extractive industries. Have there been any changes in this pattern in recent years, given the trend of increasing female labor force participation and educational attainment and the fact that Ontonagon now is expanding its service sector? My research is concerned especially with rural local labor markets (or local opportunity structures) and with rural youths to elsewhere process. whom is an moving away integral to part of search their for opportunities status attainment It is important then for me to address the issue of how out-migration has impacted upon the Ontonagon community over the years. Is the "draining" of young, well educated people from rural communities still characteristic of rural America? Do returned migrants tend to be "failures”? Without doubt one must be very careful in attempting to explore the relationships between local rural labor markets and opportunity structures because they are so intertwined. But because of the data-set at hand I am able to explore such a complex phenomenon. Due to the limitations of secondary analysis, however, this study must be regarded as exploratory, and for that plausible reason my hypotheses that aim is can to generate provide a insights basis and for future Rural Labor research. Career Patterns, Opportunity Structures and Markets Opportunity structures in rural America tend to put rural youth at a disadvantage (Bloomquist 1990). over their urban counterparts Although becoming much more diverse than they were in earlier years, at least in certain geographical locations, within a given rural labor market area it is very likely that economic activities are based on commodity or resource-based industry (Bunce 1982). a single Thus, many rural labor market areas are often subject to economic "boom and bust" cycles and more so than is characteristic of urban labor market areas (Fuguitt, Brown, and Beale 1989, Pp. 263302) . Some rural areas, especially those organized around an extractive industry and located far away from any urban 5 centers, are more prone to experience economic stress. Economic diversity is desirable but generally not feasible in the more remote communities. Distinctive local needs in such rural the communities point to increasing importance of research on local rural labor market areas and their impacts on the life chances of rural young people (Summers, Horton and Gringeri 1990; Tolbert 1989). Furthermore, community, the Opportunities for rural youths disadvantages postsecondary in encounter are remote two-fold. the communities where they live (such as community colleges) are close-by If a rural youngster is not ready for college or does not want to go to college, find education a to rare. for they living employment immediately different elsewhere. after from he/she probably must migrate to The graduating their urban choices from high rural youth school are counterparts (Dahmann have quite 1982) . Unlike them, searching for better opportunities elsewhere is a deeply rooted tradition in rural communities. Migration is very much part of the normal course of events and the career decision-making process during the transition from school to work. That greater rural young socioeconomic generalization found people success in most who migrate than those studies. tend who Less to achieve stay is is a known concerning the extent to which changes in migration patterns have been occurring in many communities in rural America and 6 how these may be reflecting changes in opportunity structures characteristic of local rural labor market areas. It is clear too that we do not understand the experiences of rural farm and non-farm young women in trying to become active members of the labor force. Do rural women have a better getting a job at home when the local rural transformed into a service-oriented chance of labor market is economy? Does the increasing rate of labor force participation by women make it possible for newly married couples to stay or return to rural areas if they choose to? How do changing opportunities in local rural labor markets affect the career forming strategies of rural youth, particularly at the point of graduation from high school attainments, achievements? and as a result influence migration patterns and their eventual educational socioeconomic Are there any gender differences? Are boys more likely than girls to be affected by the changing labor market? Our knowledge of the relationships between rural labor markets and the career patterns of rural youth, very sketchy (Ashton 1989; Ashton, Maguire, however, and is Spilsbury 1987; Turbin and Stern 1987). This is particularly so for rural areas where agriculture is not the dominant mode of economic activity. Rural non-farm residents and rural youth generally seem to be omitted in recent years from the rural sociological research agenda (Deseran 1984). The sheer magnitude of the rural exodus, which once was draining rural 7 areas of its young and better educated people, has now dropped to a level that no longer seems alarming to policy makers. the same time, turnaround to many migration students that had suggests a rural renaissance. short, of rural occurred sociology during the At the 1970s The rural youth "problem," in is now perceived to be less important than it was in the 50s; indeed the rural youth issue appears to have slipped to the bottom of the research priority list of rural sociology. Moreover, the inadequacy of status attainment research, which has dominated the field of social stratification until the 1980s and the lack of coherence in the "New Structuralist" approach, which has become increasingly visible during the last decade, account for this lack of understanding (Baron and Bielby 1980). A "status attainment" perspective implies that the attainment process of rural youth will be the same as their urban counterparts so long as they can be encouraged to pursue higher education and to catch up their generally lower level of preparation. In other words, it underscores the importance of individual efforts by rural young people and their families in career success. "Rural labor market" taken to imply a less developed area. is The basic similarities between rural and urban labor markets are emphasized. The thesis of the "New Structuralism"— the segmentation view on labor markets— on the other hand, suggests that more than one opportunity structure exists. These are assumed to 8 be governed by different rules of reward allocation, employment and mobility patterns— and between them there are insurmountable barriers to mobility. Thus, the processes of status attainment (or allocation) can be inferred. Regardless of disagreements as to how to conceptualize labor markets, whether they should sectors (Tolbert, be defined Horan, by economic and Beck 1980), or industrial geographical areas (Horan and Tolbert 1984), occupations (Kalleberg and Sorensen 1979), or race (Bonacich 1976), conclude on a similar note. types of labor •'structural markets with perspective tends to The co-existence of two different indicates inequality". everything— jobs this the persistence of Some individuals get the best of better pay and working conditions, secure tenure, and career advancement (primary labor market). Other individuals get jobs with the worst of everything (secondary labor market): low pay, doubtful job security, and no career ladders. Thus, the secondary labor market is characterized by a high turnover rate and little loyalty to employers. An abundant labor supply and scarce employment opportunities led Doeringer (1984) to characterize the labor markets of rural areas that have some manufacturing industries as a "paternalism differences highlighted. rural Maine, between mode of rural industrial and urban relations". labor markets The are Based on his analysis of manufacturing firms in he suggests that "paternalism" rather than 9 "secondary labor market" is a more accurate description of rural labor markets (i.e., in addition to the existence of a primary sector). A good supply of reliable labor plus a high degree of employee loyalty characterize a paternalistic type of labor market workers, and, represents employers. despite relatively a considerable low wages economic paid to advantage for Often, simply having a job is the foremost concern of rural residents who wish to stay, or must stay, in the area. There are genuine efforts among the proponents of status attainment to dampen the criticisms from the new structuralist approach (Grusky variables delineating place (such as 1983; South labor region, and Xu market 1990). Contextual characteristics population size and of the industrial composition where one resides) or industrial structure of the job that one holds, outcomes, and should structural effects markets) have are assumed to exert different career been be included in the analysis. When (the so-called demand side of the labor taken into account, it is argued that status attainment research seems to be no different from that of the informed "new structuralist". regarding socioeconomic the Nevertheless mechanism achievements are we are through which determined by no more individual "structural variables" according to this "additive" reductionist view of status attainment. Despite the mushrooming of "structural research", little 10 is known about the link between career mobility markets (Spilerman 1977; Jacobs 1983). and labor Nor do we comprehend much regarding the extent to which local labor markets come into play in shaping opportunity structures and, as a result, in affecting processes of mobility issues Structuralist" are essential approach, systematic fashion. individual attainment. they according are seldom to Although the addressed "New in a Therefore, the contrasts between primary and secondary labor markets are logically assumed rather than empirically examined. After all, this notion of labor markets presented by the "New Structuralism" is only an ideal type. Without comparing job stayers with job movers in a firm or an industry, the link between career mobility and labor market structure cannot be inferred by examining different patterns of addressing local job changers. mobility rural labor career patterns, issues market By (i.e. area, the same token, migration the without patterns) relationships in a between particularly among the rural young people, and rural labor markets can not be satisfactorily understood. In other words, without dealing with mobility issues either within or across sectors, industries, firms, geographic areas or occupations implied in segmentation views of labor markets, the on-going debate concerning the linkage between labor markets and opportunity structures can never be significantly resolved. types of The issue of whether there should be more than two labor markets or what are these boundaries that 11 divide labor Furthermore, occupation, markets into segments must be addressed. which one is more important— sector, industry, firm, geography or other parameters such as race and gender? Issues of social mobility have been the core concern in sociology. with Sociologists, intergenerational however, mobility, are primarily concerned because they are interested in assessing the "openness" of a society. more Using a national sample is an appropriate research methodology. First and current jobs held by an individual are singled out as a frame of reference to be examined. Individual occupational changes are used to facilitate the understanding of social mobility between generations. with the factors that Career mobility, affect individual achievements within one's own lifetime, which deals socioeconomic is the by-product of research on intergenerational mobility. Perhaps another frame of reference is required to study career mobility, which is closely tied to variations and changes in labor markets and the life cycle stage that an individual is in. "Career line" or "career trajectory" are terms used to suggest market 1980). an association structures They between (Spilerman refer to the career 1977; Otto, temporal Individual work mobility Call, aspects history and labor and Spenner of the status attainment process. is typically patterned. Job movement depends on occupation, firm, industry and location in which an individual is employed in addition to 12 his or her skills, preferences. credentials, connections, ability and Furthermore, due to the complexity involved in studying career mobility, the emphasis is on narrowing the scope of the study in which employers (usually firms) or local labor market areas, for instance, are employed as case studies to address mobility issues implied in various views on labor market structures (Althauser and Kalleberg 1990). this In essence, line of research focuses on identifying how different types of jobs are connected to each other to form various pathways for individuals to advance, not to advance, or to switch to another line of work. A holistic view of the status attainment process must be emphasized in order to deal with the complexity of the relationships between career patterns and rural labor markets. An individual career, critical decisions of course, involving is the outcome of numerous educational, occupational and migration choices among different cohorts— and the consequent patterns of behavior that are observed— no doubt reflect changing local labor market conditions. By young examining people, we how the career hope question of local regional opportunity to pathways shed rural labor structures patterns of rural young people. light in of on Ontonagon the markets County interesting interact determining the with career 13 Social Class, Scholastic Performance and Migration In order young people, to explore the career Ontonagon I will start with the dependent variable— migration behavior. first of I will now proceed to discuss the variables I intend to use in the study. was pathways recorded in the Since the turnaround migration late 1960s, there has been a mushrooming of literature concerned with rethinking migration. Whether the changing pattern of rural-urban migration was an indication of something fundamental that had occurred economic restructuring or a basic population dispersion) (an or merely a period idiosyncracy responding to changing economic cycles is still a debatable issue (Frey 1989). Clearly, there is an appreciation of the fact that migration research must shift its focus toward the temporal aspects of migration, the study of return migration, and the noneconomic factors of migration. Issues of permanency in conceptualizing a migratory act are essential to differentiate variations of migration behaviors (Caldwell 1969; Mangalam and Schwarzweller 1970). Thus, addition in to non-migrants and migrants, returned migrants are included as a category in this study to ascertain migration histories of young people from Ontonagon. The separation of non-migrants from returned migrants enables us to address this contention: that returned migrants are not necessarily a sign of failure to adjust (Simmons and G. 1972). Another important factor which determines the permanency 14 of leaving one's home community is why the person moves in the first place. Situational circumstances that lead to actually moving away very often characterize migration behaviors and influence migration outcomes. moving (a standard Rather than using reasons for procedure) to measure imperatives" that prompt the initial move, "structural I identify four primary career goals which motivate out-migration: military service, to enter to pursue college or technical school, to seek or to accept a job, and in the case of young women, to get married and to assume residence at her husband's home. Since migration is an initial phase of the career attainment process for rural young people, I believe these four structural imperatives are very useful analytical categories to explore the complex relationships between changing local rural labor markets and general opportunity structures. Studies of the effects of out-migration on rural areas have been an important research agenda in rural sociology. There are few controversies in the assessment of resulting demographic consequences. opinions effects regarding on the communities suggest that the But there are wide differences of implications long-range socioeconomic (Price and Sikes out-migration of 1975; these vitality Garkovich mitigates the demographic of rural 1989). pressure Some of job competition for those who stay behind in rural communities. The more common view, however, expresses a great concern about the continual outflow of human capital from rural communities. 15 The debate continues even in an era of turnaround migration, when a great many rural communities are experiencing population growth faster than metropolitan America (Lichter, Heaton and Fuguitt 1979; Voss and Fuguitt 1991). Of course, the increasing economic diversities across the rural landscape of America do not help resolve these disagreements. Demographic research that deals with rural population growth must go beyond documenting demographic trends, changes and consequences. Researchers should strive for a better, more understanding comprehensive of migration. Garkovich (1989) suggests that the case study approach, as a promising research strategy, may provide us such results. propose to address young people the status attainment in a very different Moreover, I process fashion. of Unlike rural typical status attainment perspectives which tend to use sophisticated statistical techniques attainment (or to analyze allocation), my determinants method is a of status mulitivariate elaboration. The term "social capital" is employed. It singles out the importance for rural communities to produce, retain, and attract human capital when long-range economic development is at stake. It also reflects the life cycle stage into which rural high school seniors are about to step. college or technical schools, the military. They go on to enter the job market, or join Whichever ways they choose to leave Ontonagon in effect serve to develop human capital either through formal 16 schooling (a common apprenticeship, their own path chosen by rural or on-the-job-training. personal net young people), They are enhancing worth— becoming the creators, repositories, and carriers, so to speak, of "social capital" and thereby represent a contribution to the society of which they are a part. In this "social study, I focus capital". on 1. Social two class aspects of Ontonagon origin, depicted by father's occupation and status in the community, represents an ascribed status that young people from Ontonagon were born into; 2. Scholastic graduation people rank, have performance, represents earned in the an measured achieved Ontonagon by high status school that young school system. An ascribed status differentiates rural young people in terms of career aspirations, environment. people the material amenities An achieved status reinforces notion that career goals, and normative in rural young usually education, are attainable and worthwhile pursuing. a college Basically, I propose that social class origin and scholastic performance are the most important forces that determine whether or not young people from Ontonagon leave for the first time to pursue further education. As a result, they probably affect the migration and career patterns of young people from Ontonagon. Since leaving a remote rural community such as Ontonagon is a normal event for Ontonagon young people, the changing local labor market and economic conditions in Ontonagon are 17 expected to have little influence on variations of initial out-migration over the years. But I do expect that the changing local labor market and economic conditions will have considerable impacts on whether or not these young migrants return and stay, especially in the case of rural young men. As more young women opt for college education and labor force participation, migration and status attainment patterns of Ontonagon young women of later cohorts may converge with the patterns of their male counterparts. Study Populations Three different cohorts of Ontonagon county high school graduates, for which follow-up included in this study. data are available, are They are from the senior classes of 1957/58, 1968, and 1974. The first phase of the project began in May of 1957. A main focus of this initial study was to investigate factors associated with the decision to migrate. Professors. J. Allan Beegle and Harold Goldsmith were the principal investigators. At that time both the 1957 and 1958 senior classes enrolled in the county's 11 schools were questionnaires. surveyed by self-administered Information on their education, migration, career plans, and attitudes toward family and community were collected. There were 12 3 boys and 131 girls. The second phase of the study was conducted between March 1968 and December 1969 under the direction of Professor J. 18 Allan Beegle and Jon Rieger. followed-up and again Information on their The 1957 and 1958 classes were surveyed education, by mail questionnaire. family formation, work and migration experiences were updated, and factors related to the decisions to return or not return to Ontonagon were probed. At the same time, the 1968 senior classes from the four area high schools were surveyed, using the earlier self­ administered questionnaire procedure. Nearly all high school seniors 89 boys and 104 girls in the county were included: (Reiger 1971). The third phase of the study consisted of three parts. Professors J. Allan Beegle, Harry K. Schwarzweller were the project investigators (Clay 197 6). In 1974 the senior classes of the surveyed as before. There Jon Rieger, and four area high were 100 boys and school were 101 girls. Further, the whereabouts of the two previous cohorts (1957/58 and 1968) were ascertained, and questionnaires were mailed to them. For the 1957/58 and 1968 cohorts, 212 and 161 returned surveys were obtained respectively. Also, during June 1975, follow-up information on the 1974 class were obtained either from the subjects themselves or from secondary sources such as spouses, parents, siblings, other relatives or school officials. A fourth phase of the study was conducted in June and July of 1985. Up-to-date information on the 1968 and 1974 classes was acquired from subjects directly or from secondary 19 sources. Of the 387 individuals to be located (excluding 5 that passed away and 2 exchange students) , only 3 2 did not have complete follow-up information. Among them, cases offered no clues on their whereabouts. only 12 All together, 648 high school seniors participated in this study over the time span of 29 years. There are 579 cases included in our analysis (Table 1-1). Table 1-1. Number of Respondents, by Gender and Cohort 1957/58 Males Females 1968 1974 97 86 93 115 95 93 Procedures The graduates 1985 was updated coded and information added to on the the 1968 existing Cross-sectional comparisons were made for one, eleven (for graduation. 1974 only) and 17/18 years after and data 1974 file. five, seven, high school These were used as temporal points of reference to provide a basis for establishing career equivalency and, consequently, they serve to arrange the longitudinal data in a systematic manner. The specific intervals selected correspond to life cycle stages. Based on information about where respondents resided at 20 those times, comparisons can be made as to migration status and migration history. We may be able to ascertain migration types and, with caution, be in a position to predict future residential movements. Structural Ontonagon, marriage coding whether for work, obligation scheme. education, (for women Migration differentiated. imperatives for leaving military service or only), are patterns included can in the therefore be For the class of 1974, only two career-track points were ascertained and no follow-up mail questionnaires were sent to them to solicit additional information. Due to the secondary nature of the information obtained, we tend to overcount migrants who had not yet returned and undercount returned migrants. Patterns occupational examined. of migration attainments Scholastic behavior at various performance and educational intervals (high school will and be graduation rank) and family of origin SES are the main control variables. They will be dealt with as antecedent or intervening variables, depending on the analysis being pursued. my research elaboration. strategy is essentially a Overall, multivariate Thus, factors associated with the processes of status attainment and migration between cohorts are compared. These comparisons career patterns. in the suggest certain "structural effects" on The structural effects also parallel changes Ontonagon labor market; explored insofar as possible. this connection will be To characterize and analyze the 21 labor market situation, I have available information from a number of sources: focused interviews with economic leaders in the county, including directors of the mine, paper mill, local union, business leaders; the Michigan Census from 1950 to 1980; the Upper Peninsula Labor Market Review (or Letter), a monthly description of labor market conditions from 1958 to 1991; and the County Business Patterns of Michigan from 1951 to 1987. The end product and contribution of my research will be the formation of broadly conceived, and empirically inquiry. grounded theoretically relevant, hypotheses that merit further Chapter 2. Ontonagon County: the Changing Migration Context Ontonagon County, located on Lake Superior in the northwestern corner of Michigan's Upper Peninsula— 500 miles by road from the state capital in Lansing— , is a part of the historically underdeveloped upper Midwestern area of the United States known as "the Great Lakes Cut-Over Region." It has been and still is socioeconomically distinct from the Lower Peninsula. As one drives across Michigan's upper peninsula, perhaps from the Mackanic Bridge Minnesota and Sault or down along the west St. Marie to Duluth in side of Lake Michigan to Milwaukee and Chicago, it is fairly easy to by-pass Ontonagon. Despite Ontonagon's geographical remoteness and isolation, the exploitation of copper manifested rather well extractive economic activities rural community. The ore the and timber cyclical, (or pulp) volatile nature associated with this livelihood of Ontonagon have of remote people and socioeconomic development of Ontonagon County was and still is closely tied to corporative/bureaucratic control elsewhere (Gates 1951; Martin 1986). However, for the last four decades, with the construction of the White Pine Copper mine/smelter/ore refinery complex in the early 1950s, the use of mechanized pulp harvesting, the location the of an assembly-line welding factory for manufacture of naval equipment, and an increased emphasis on 22 23 tourism, the character of the Ontonagon labor market has changed dramatically. Subsistence Ontonagon, farming today, the scene. can be characterized as a remote, small, rural-industrial town. has long passed from Of course, this is not to say that the few remaining farms and agricultural enterprises are operating at far above the marginal level. rural America, further manufacturing-based to Like many small towns in transformation a of Ontonagon service-oriented economy from and a the increasing rate of woman's participation in Ontonagon labor force are evident, echoing the general trend of American's national economy. The increasing globalization of the world economy, coupled with the plunge of copper prices again led Ontonagon residents economic and their suffering families in late to another 1975. From sudden then round onward, of the Ontonagon population has declined for the last two censuses (6 percent in 1980 and 10 percent in 1990) . In spite of the great efforts made by the Ontonagon Development Board, the local business community, and the State to diversify the local economy in recent years, the future of Ontonagon remains uncertain. In this chapter, I will focus on the changing Ontonagon labor market and economic conditions in the contemporary era. The migration experiences of Ontonagon young people after all are strongly affected by these changes. Migration is an 24 integral component of the complex pathways into adulthood for Ontonagon however, high school graduating seniors. To begin with, a brief overview of Ontonagon's history is useful. Table 2-1 charts some of the more important events that have occurred in Ontonagon over the years. Table 2-1. Year Important Historical Events of Ontonagon Event 184 3 A permanent settlement started at the east bank of the Ontonagon River. 1851 James Carson constructed a pier at the harbor. 1854 The formal opening of the Bigelow Hotel. 1857 The beginning of the first copper boom which ended around the early 1860s. Further harbor improvement (a larger pier) was completed by Charles T. Harvey. 1860 The first usable, all weather road was completed by the mining companies in the Rockland area. It was from the mouth of the Ontonagon River to Rockland. 1867 Federal funds were obtained to improve the harbor. It was 1880 when the channel was widened and deepened and adequate piers were constructed. 1880-1900 Pine boom— the heaviest logging on the south shore of lake Superior. Shipment of lumber out of the harbor grew from 32,000 board feet in 1881 to 180,000,000 board feet in 1895. 1882 The first cargo train came into Ontonagon. It ran only from Ontonagon to Rockland then. It was later to merge with lines to Chicago, Milwaukee and St. Paul. 1896 A fire destroyed most of the village. Mills and facilities of the Diamond Match Company were burned to ashes. 25 1920 Pulpwood logging became the main forestry activity. 1925 Box paper manufacturing began. The paper mill has been in operation ever since then. 1954 The White Pine Copper mine was reopened. 1964 A labor dispute at the White Pine Copper mine. 1966 Expansion of the White Pine Copper mine. A new shaft was started and completed in 1967. Strike at paper mill. 1967 The Holiday Mountain, ski complex was under construction. A five month strike by miners was finally ended on Jan., 1968. 1970 Greenland road construction, part of U.S.4 5 was started. White Pine Copper announced another expansion plan at the mine. The three-phase, tenyear plan to develop White Pine community was also announced. A commercial center and 250 houses were to be built during the first phase of the project. 1971 Strike at the White Pine Copper mine. Copper Range company which owned the mining operation moved most of its corporate staff to White Pine. 1972 A new motel unit at White Pine was under construction and a new ski hill would be underway. 1973 Horner-Waldorf announced a $22 million expansion plan for the paper mill. The expansion would double the output of corrugated medium paper. 1974 Strike at the White Pine Copper mine. 1975 White Pine Copper announced plans off 2,100 of 2,900 employees in December. 1976 The White Pine Copper mine was operated at about 50% of its capacity for many months. 1979 Construction of a $9 million shipbuilding began. It became Wedtech shipyard. 1985 The closing of the White Pine Copper mine. 1986 The White Pine Copper mine resumed its operation after a buy-out by local investors and former employees with State financing. Wedtech shipyard closed down because of scandal. to lay plant 26 1991-92 Lake Shore Inc., current management of the shipyard, laid off 3 5 workers out of about 130 employees just before Christmas 1991. Due to the loss of a $25 million contract with the Navy, an additional 40 or 50 workers were terminated in early 1992. The political struggle continues between proponents of a proposed $1.2 billion white paper mill on the Ontonagon river by Mead Inc. and a local environmental group (FOCUS) with the support of Friends of the land of Keweenaw (FOLK) and the Upper Peninsula Environmental Coalition (UPEC). Early History Until the mid-1800s Ontonagon remained wilderness area visited mostly by Chippewa trappers, and English explorers. largely a vast Indians, French But things began to change. In the Keweenaw area, deposits of mass copper were discovered along with some rich iron ore in the Marquette Range in the central U.P. Reports of a huge copper boulder found not far from the Ontonagon River added to the excitement and allured many adventurers and fortune-seekers. In 1843 the town of Ontonagon was formally established along the east bank of the Ontonagon River by James K. Paul. He came to search for mass "float" copper (Jamison 1939), which was said to have been in the possession of Indians since at least the 1700s. silver; Others followed to look for copper and many small mines were started. Copper prices rose during the Civil War period and stayed high after the war, as copper telephone and telegraph America; Ontonagon village grew. lines were stretched across By 1896 there were 2,300 residents, many community amenities, and even an opera house. 27 After the federal government induced railroads into the region through a system of land grants, the southern part of the county also began to open up for more intensive settlement. Many of the newcomers were immigrants from northern Europe, especially from Finland, other Scandinavian countries, and the Cornwall region of England. labor in farmers. the mines and lumber Usually recruited for camps, many later became They cleared the land, pull the stumps, and planted crops that could be marketed locally. Farming conditions in Ontonagon are harsh and reminded many of the newcomers what it was like in the "old country"— the soils are poor, the growing season short, and the winters cold. From the very beginning Ontonagon's socioeconomic development and growth depended on mining and timber more recently, pulp.) eastern capitalists, (and, These extractive industries attracted Chicago investment bankers, absentee landlords, adventurers, and immigrants from the old world. As mining exploration and lumber camps moved inland and west, and as roads and rail lines joined this remote area more closely with the major population centers downstate, new communities emerged. Victoria Greenland, mine was Mass City, located) are and Rockland situated (where the southeast of Ontonagon. Silver City (site of an early silver mine) is west of Ontonagon. of Ontonagon. All were within 15 miles or less from the town These places are now integral parts of the Ontonagon service area, a short commute from the variety shops 28 along Ontonagon's main street. But in the old days, when the Ontonagon River was the only gateway to the outside world, these settlements were small, self-contained communities. They were pretty isolated from one another in such a stony, hilly country. White Pine, 5 miles south of Silver City, however, is a rather new town with an enclosed shopping mall, a new high school, and a suburban-style complex of single family homes— projects that were subsidized and built in 1970 by the mining corporation. Only a few miles west of White Pine are the Porcupine Mountains and "Lake of the Clouds," one of Michigan's most scenic tourist attractions. The formation of communities in the southern part of Ontonagon County, which occurred somewhat independently from the emergence of communities bordering Lake Superior in the northern part, also was primarily associated with the exploitation of timber and the construction of railroads and automobile roads for transporting logs and copper. Bergland (on Lake Gogebic), Ewen (the main railroad terminal), Bruces Crossing and Trout Creek were formed to provide services to logging camps, sawmills and lumber related industries; they grew into small towns. and hauled away, the When the virgin pines had been slashed cut-over flat land, which had higher agricultural potential than land to the north, was sold very cheaply for cultivation and grazing; a number of dairy farms were established. Pulp logging and wood chipping gradually gained importance after the strands of big timber had been 29 depleted. These activities and other jobs associated with the pulp/paper industry became a critical source of supplemental income for many struggling families during the long periods of economic depression. particularly The years from 1921 through 1954 were difficult; copper prices exploration had virtually halted, closed, had tumbled, mining all commercial mines were and the economy of Ontonagon was stagnant. Work in the pulp woods helped many households to survive, especially those that had been dependent on mining or on small, marginal farming operations. In 1954 the socioeconomic transformation of Ontonagon county was dramatically advanced when Copper Range Corporation opened its modern, t e chnologically-sophisti cated mining/smelting facility at the site of the old White Pine copper mine. Changing Employment Opportunities Before the White Pine Copper mine came into production, mining, although an active industry in other parts of the U.P., was less important in the Ontonagon economy. Indeed the copper boom of the Civil War period brought a rush of people to Ontonagon; the 1860 census reported over 4,500 persons in the county. But many of the newcomers were adventurers, few with intentions to remain as permanent residents. It was not until the timber boom of the 1890s that Ontonagon's population again rose to over 4,000. In the early 1900s there was a 30 large influx of Finnish settlers; Ontonagon's population peaked at about 12,400 in 1920. Copper mining in White Pine area began over a century ago. The mine was closed soon after the Civil War when the price of copper fell to an extreme low, and when new mines in the western part of the country were undoubtedly cheaper to explore. The original mine was sold in 1929. The low quality of Lake Superior chalcocite created a big problem for copper mining in this area. Apparently, a new technique to extract copper more efficiently from the ore was needed. With the outbreak of the Korean War the federal government financed more intensive research and subsidized construction of the present White Pine mine. The first ore was taken from the new mine in 1953 and the smelter was completed and functional by 1955. just The dramatic transformation of the Ontonagon economy began. employment Ontonagon in the quickly western became region a of focal point Michigan's for Upper Peninsula. In 1950 only engaging in mining. 13 county residents Ontonagon were But by 1960 there were 904 out of 3,145 employed persons working for the mine. was designed as a large-scale employ many people. in The White Pine mine industrial-type operation to At its peak in 1974, there were over 3,000 employees with a payroll of over $3 5 million. Although some workers commuted from as far as 80 miles away (by company bus, locally called "the White Pine Sleeper"), about half were 31 from Ontonagon county (and accounted for nearly two-thirds of the county's plummeted, employed the work persons). force But shrank. as The copper biggest prices lay-off occurred in 197 6, when half of the employees were let go. By 1982 there were only about 900, and during the strike period of 1983-84 only a caretaker crew was retained (mining operations were suspended for three years). After the worker takeover was implemented, employment rose to about a thousand. Currently it remains at about that level, and is owned by a German company ("Copper Range Company" belongs to Metall Mining Company of Toronto, a subsidiary of Metallgesellschaft of Germany.) Many "spin-off jobs," particularly in the service sector, were and are associated with the ebb and flow of employment in the mine. Community amenities too, especially in the "company town" of White Pine, were dependent on and continue to rely upon the economic socioeconomic viability impacts of of these the mine. enormous lay Indeed, offs throughout this western corner of the Upper Peninsula. the rumbled Within a year of the big lay off in 1976 many younger families in White Pine, Ontonagon, and elsewhere in the area had no choice but to move elsewhere in search of jobs; the tax base and school enrollments deteriorated, and it is very unlikely that the impacted communities will ever recover these losses. So it is with a local economy that is overwhelmingly dependent upon one industry. Ontonagon is once again experiencing hard 32 times. Although wood-based natural resources are much more sustainable than the copper ore, there is absolutely no way in Ontonagon to absorb jobs lost to the mine with logging jobs or work at the paper mill. resources or to build Proposals to further exploit the wood another paper mill definitely endow preservationists and environmentalists with the political will to fight on. endured On top of these, enormous the pulp/paper industry has technological revolutions, consequently affecting employment opportunities in Ontonagon. After a devastating fire in 1896 that destroyed the Diamond Match Company mill and facilities, logging and timber milling activities in Ontonagon were mainly small scale, relying on part-time and temporary laborers for "work in the woods." for Only gradually, and in response to the growing demand pulp and paper products, did the wood resources of Ontonagon regain significant economic value. A small pulp/paperboard mill, built at the outskirts of Ontonagon village in the early 1920s. It operated irregularly over the years, barely survived the great depression, and was forced to close in 1953. In 1956 it was reopened and since then has grown rather steadily in number of employees and in volume of production. However, heavy doses of "outside" developmental capital and continual tapping into the linkages of national/international markets are absolutely essential for maintaining a reasonably successful pulp/paper enterprise. 33 Over the years, impelled by persistent competition within the industry (both foreign and domestic) and the pressures to increase scale of operation, to capture a larger share of the market, and to cut production unit costs, become almost completely mechanized. the industry has Earlier, the mill would purchase pulp logs from local farmers, logging crews, and land owners. The woods work was low-tech and labor intensive. Basically, a man de-limbed pulp trees with his saw, his wife and children de-barked logs, and they stacked them up. Hauling, of course, was done by truck, but the loading was a very physical task. So was the work at the mill. Then came scores of labor-saving devices; power saws, hydraulic loaders, "skidder" tractors, "grapple” skidders, mobile heavy-duty chippers, semi-trailers for hauling chips, automatic unloading systems at the plant, and etc. industry became In short, the pulp/paperboard technologically sophisticated and almost totally automated in no time. With the arrival of mechanization in pulpwood logging, especially in clear cut of aspen, Rieger and Schwarzweller estimated (1991) that the number employed in woods work in the Ontonagon County area has been reduced to under a hundred. The decrease in woods jobs, however, had been compensated by an increase in employment chipper/hauling businesses at the mill and in the (The latter activities now are so essential to the pulp industry, currently 1,000 tons of wood chips are processed daily.) For the past decade, the number 34 of employees at the Ontonagon plant has doubled to over 300 workers. In addition, the two principal independent contractors who engage in wood chipping and hauling activities employ a large technicians, industry, number and of equipment accountants. operators, Like the drivers, copper mining the pulp/paper industry in Ontonagon has unfolded rather rapidly into a high-tech business that demands from its workers skills, education, and training. And it, too, as an industry dependent upon the exploitation of natural resources, is subject to market unpredictability and the sometimes chaotic fluctuations of prices. Despite market, the the notorious Ontonagon volatility community in expects upturn without much waited anxieties. the the pulp/paper return of its For the copper mining, however, there is always an imminent fear that sooner or later the White Pine Diversifying the mine will Ontonagon be another economy has hole been in the ground. an urgent and necessary priority for the community. Diversifying Local Economy Parallelling the general expansion and modernization of the pulp/paperboard industry, attempts to strengthen tourism and, more recently, to bring in a large manufacturing firm in Ontonagon Village were and are underway. projects, "rural These developmental often referred to as "rural industrialization" or revitalization," intend to exploit the available 35 natural resources and to utilize the underemployed human capital in this rather remote area of Michigan. In 1979 shipbuilding construction plant. It was begun was an on a ambitious $9 million undertaking, representing a concerted effort by the community to diversify Ontonagon economy. The negotiations and politicking that led to the implementation of this project were rather complicated, and are important. confusing even to this day. State was The original plan was to build tugboats and barges that could be operated on the Great Lakes. reasons, backing it fell through. An overseas (Japanese); again this deal failed. But, for various buyer Then, was found a New York-based firm bought out the entire operation with a contract from the U.S. Navy to build pontoon causeways. This brand new shipyard brought the Ontonagon community about 200 new jobs. Many of them program were trained as welders through a special administered by the local high school and its state-financed vocational training center. A second contract was negotiated with the Navy in 1985 for more causeways. Indeed it was a proud, successful story for this remote Ontonagon community. Unfortunately, in 1986 Wedtech Corporation was involved in a national scandal. Allegations of influence-peddling up to the highest levels of the United States government forced the closure of the Ontonagon facility for a time until the complexities of this situation could be sorted out. under new management (Lake Shore Inc., Later on an Oldenberg Group 36 Company based in Michigan), operations resumed: the company is manufacturing cargo-handling and lifeboat equipment for the U.S. Navy. In 1990 there were about 130 persons employed. With the new world order in sight, military downsizing has been underway and will resume. The continually shrinking defense budgets have in the past and will in the future put Ontonagon at scramble for odds with many limited communities federal funds. across America Ontonagon, with to a sparsely populated area in such a remote western corner of Michigan's Upper Peninsula, has a much greater chance to lose out to other communities with politically powerful alliances at the state capital. Recently, Lake Shore lost a $25 million contract with the Navy regardless of its lower bid by $1.6 million. another In 40 terminated addition or 50 in 1992. to persons 35 laid-off working The workers at employees the in 1991, shipyard will and Ontonagon's be economic development corporation are worried. In 1935, Beck and Forster recommended one of the remedies to solve sufferings and problems of the "Great Lakes Cut-Over Region" was recreational to develop projects." "a rehabilitation Indeed, numerous program very of serious attempts have been made over the years to develop a tourist industry more fully. Recent efforts have been mainly on projects aimed at extending the tourist season through the winter months. Porcupine Mountain State Park, in the western corner of 37 Ontonagon County, attractions. is one of Michigan's most scenic tourist Good fishing streams, well-marked hiking and nature trails, and beautiful, undisturbed vistas are available in the summer time. During the winter months, there are excellent facilities for downhill and cross-country skiing. But, because "The Porkies" and the many other tourist attractions in the area are so distant from major downstate population centers, the Ontonagon business community is extremely hesitant to invest additional funds in tourism for fear that significant economic returns will never arrive. Federal marina. funds were obtained during the 7 0s to build a It was to provide safe harbor for boats cruising between the Apostle Islands off Wisconsin to the Keweenaw. Further, a local group promoting tourism managed to get a snowmobile trail laid out, with Ontonagon to the Porcupines. totaling $250,000 federal assistance, At present, from a 5-year project is being undertaken to connect Ontonagon snowmobile trails to all others in this western end of the Upper Peninsula region. Also, in the early '70s trails were cleared for another major downhill ski area. The project was never completed because the private company went bankrupt. Currently there is talk about venture capital from as far away as Hawaii being Disappointingly, enticed into this snow country business. most of these and the many other tourist- oriented projects have failed to lure a flood of tourists and their dollars. Very often they were and will be strongly 38 supported by local groups and state/federal subsidization. Ontonagon, in planning development projects related to tourism or to a diversified economy, must cope with what has been called "the tyranny of distance" school principal in the area (Blaney, expressed the 1966). A high problem quite clearly: "... ten years ago I would have said that tourism was a bright hope on the economic horizon. look nearly as promising. We are missing necessary to make it really take off. to interest the boaters, But now it doesn't some key things Some outlying islands for instance. It's also an awful long distance to come for things that can be found closer to where people are coming from. Take skiing: we haven't got any facilities that are any better here than people can get closer to their homes." Looking Ahead The forever livelihood patterns of Ontonagon people have been changed character of conditions. because the of the Ontonagon dramatic labor transformation market and "Self-sufficiency and small-scale, in economic independent commercial operations (in farming and pulp/lumber enterprises, especially) Ontonagon are people incorporated consequently, far more now and a part their of Ontonagon economic history. activities into the mainstream of American have The been industry and, the well-being of the Ontonagon people is now dependent upon the economic viability and 39 bureaucratic scheming of two or three firms. Within the county too, there has been population redistribution, pending on the sitings (and luck) of economic development. Ontonagon plants village are Porkies For the most part the are and located, the and situated. shift has been toward lakeside, toward The where northwest interior of the industrial sites the where county, the where agriculture was once the primary economic activity, has been losing population. Many hamlets have virtually disappeared and many of the smaller villages, once relatively independent, have become satellites consolidation, ecological of of course, organization Ontonagon had of an village. enormous these School impact places; in 1957, instance, there were 11 high schools in the county, only three remain. on the for but now The proposal to further consolidate the White Pine school district into Ontonagon is currently on the table. Ontonagon, historically shaped by the copper and forest products industries, "manufacturing has based" had employment great hopes structure to to build provide a its people, particularly Ontonagon men, with stable, high-paying jobs. It had been a quite successful story until troubles occurred at the mine, and most recently in the shipyard. Again, "the tyranny of distance"— the sparsely populated area, the abundant natural resources, beauty, influx and recent of the tranquility of natural environmentally conscious 40 newcomers— critically limits the availability of developmental options in this remote rural community. Consequently, alternative employment opportunities are severely restricted, especially for Ontonagon's young men and women. Even with economy to some a contemporary success in transforming manufacturing-based era, there are some between Ontonagon and downstate. far less diversified in its the economy Ontonagon during significant the differences Ontonagon was and still is labor market structure (much higher employment concentration on the copper industry), far more lacking in the availability of work (higher unemployment rates), short of human-capital-enhancing institutions (such as colleges, universities and variety of vocational schools), and lagging in opportunities for individuals and their families to generate good incomes (lower per capita income). of finding employment, (professional, acquiring technical, an upper-level managerial, position administrative, skilled), and earning a "decent" wage or salary, downstate. The chances are better Not surprisingly, for Ontonagon young people, the "safety valve" option of out-migration to downstate jobs is prevalent. and Nowadays, most jobs, forestry in even those associated with mining Ontonagon, require that specialized skills, training, and education. educational opportunities has gained greater workers have Lack of higher importance in recent years to prompt young people from Ontonagon to leave, 41 and eventually to move away from this remote community. It may well be that, in Ontonagon collapse and and in light of recent economic bad news elsewhere, chronic the time unemployment is near become Ontonagon residents and their families. when a economic reality for Chapter 3. This Migration Histories and Pathways Out chapter explores the changing patterns of out­ migration from Ontonagon County since 1957/58 as reflected by the migration histories of three high school cohorts. My aim through the use of this rather unique longitudinal data-set is to shed more light on the structural determinants of rural out-migration and, in particular, to explore the impacts of Ontonagon's changing economic conditions on the patterns of youth out-migration and young adult return migration. For present purposes, migration is viewed as a process where an individual moves away, more or less permanently, from his or her home community. I will take into account whether or not the out-migrants, after initial out-migration, return again to reside in the Ontonagon ar e a . an important phenomenon to consider range consequences of the economic "Return migration" is in assessing the longdevelopment of rural of rural communities like Ontonagon. To better migration structural comprehend from Ontonagon, or motivational initial out-migration. when they the first underlying I'll focus imperatives causes especially that on the prompted the What goals did the young people have decided to Michigan's upper peninsula? leave this remote corner of Was out-migration a strategy of building a career and a satisfying way of life? Have the goals and strategies of young people changed over time, in 42 43 line with the changing economic circumstances in Ontonagon? Four "structural imperatives" (or goals that motivate out-migration) are examined: l. to enter military service; 2. to pursue schools; further 3. to education seek a in job, or college to take or a in technical job, elsewhere (usually in a downstate metropolitan area) ; or, in the case of young women, 4. to get married and to join their spouse at his place of residence and work. local residence pattern (The latter presumes a partri- which, I believe, represents the prevailing reality in Ontonagon.) By interrelating the migration histories of these three cohorts with the structural imperatives that represent the goals that drive the streams of out-migration, I expect to observe more clearly the changing patterns of out-migration from Ontonagon. Migration Histories Migration from their home community after graduation from high school has been a Ontonagon young people. Those that college or employment migrated trade normal of behavior Few never moved away left school, elsewhere, pattern or for to various join simply for (Table 3-1) . reasons: to the military, for adventure attend to and seek to experience the outside world. On the basis of residential histories from the time of high school graduation through to the year when the last 44 survey of a particular cohort was conducted, three basic types of migration experiences can be ascertained: non-migrants, return migrants and "migrants now"1. Two criteria are used to identify whether or not a change of residence is in fact a migratory move. First, a residence of six months or more is the minimal time for a change of residence to be classed as a "migration"2. Secondly, the place to which an individual migrates must be outside the Ontonagon area to be classed as a "migration". purposes, The Ontonagon area, includes Ontonagon as defined for present county communities in adjacent counties. and close-by rural A "non-migrant" then is a person who never left the Ontonagon area to reside elsewhere for more than six months. All others are "migrants". Migrants can be "return migrants" or "migrants now." Table 3-1. Non­ migrant Cohort and Gender Migration Histories by Cohort and Gender Return Migrant Never Returned Multiple Migrated Once Returned Migrant Now Total Returned, Left Never Again Returned Male 1957/58 7.2 1968 4 .7 1974 11.8 28.9 20.9 19.4 10.3 4 .7 0.0 12.4 32 .6 14.0 41.2 37.2 54.8 100.0 ( 9 7 ) 100.0 ( 86) 100.0 ( 93) Female 1957/58 20.9 1968 11.6 1974 14 .0 15.7 11.6 25.8 5.2 1.1 1.1 12.2 17.9 4 .3 46.1 57.9 54.8 100.0 (115) 100.0 ( 95) 100.0 ( 93) 45 Return migrants are further categorized as two kinds. Migrants who returned to Ontonagon once are in some respects distinct from those who returned and left and returned again (i.e. multiple returns). But many who migrated— whether only once or more often— -eventually returned to become permanent members of the Ontonagon community. Similarly, "migrants now" may be sorted into two categories. Some, of course, returned but then left again. Most migrants, however— representing about half of the young people in each of the cohorts— never returned once they left. Unlike the dichotomy of non-migrants v s . migrants, which is most often used in the literature, these three migration "types" and their variations help us to better our understanding of the dynamic aspects of the migration process. Out-migration patterns, and cohort/gender variabilities are much more accurately portrayed. Clearly, community as after I noted high earlier, school migration graduation has from the been pattern of behavior for Ontonagon young people. the obviously persistent pattern of a home normal But, despite out-migration that characterizes their career tracks— not surprising, considering the lack of job opportunities in this region— -some noteworthy variations by gender and cohort are observed. Females, over the years, were about three times more likely than males to remain in Ontonagon as "non-migrants." Traditional gender differences appear to have Prior to 1974, of course, leveled o f f . many young men were drawn out of 46 Ontonagon to enter the military; military service and college opportunities for women were relatively restricted in the 1950s and early 1960s. There were (only 4.7 far percent females). fewer non-migrants of males and only in the 11.6 1968 percent cohort of the The Viet Nam war had deepened at that time, and in many ways had disrupted— perhaps forever— the normal career patterns of young people in remote areas like Ontonagon. There were more opportunities for work and college; many young men opted for enter military service. Clearly, as reflected in the variable patterns of out-migration manifested by these three cohorts, things were changing, though not in an easily discernible way. Among those Ontonagon young people who moved away over the years, some returned to Ontonagon to stay. Multiple returning was a rarity for the later two cohorts. Apparently, the overwhelming majority of return migrants left to return just once. the cohort, In the case of males, the earlier the greater the number of return migrants. somewhat reverse pattern is observed for females; A the 1974 female cohort had twice as many return migrants as the 1968 female 1957/58 cohort. It also had more return migrants than the cohort. Overall, with the exception of the 1974 cohort, females tended to have fewer return migrants than did males. The much higher 1957/58 male cohort rate (39.2%) of return migrants for the as compared with the other two 47 cohorts in all likelihood illustrates that the changing local labor market in Ontonagon drastically affected migration behaviors of young men in particular. For the 1957/58 cohort, the last follow-up survey was undertaken during the summer of 1975, before the White Pine Copper Company announced its massive lay-off plans that year. The Ontonagon economy had become heavily dependent upon copper mining ever since the reopening and expansion of the White Pine mine. Trouble in the mining industry spelled trouble for the entire community. The migration behaviors of the 1957/58 cohort thus reflected the better economic times that it had experienced. In 1975 there were forty-six percent 1957/58 males and forty-two percent of the 1957/58 of the females residing in Ontonagon— a higher proportion than any other two cohorts. the Favorable economic conditions in Ontonagon during early 1970s attracting many no doubt of the played a significant role in 1957/58 male migrants to return to Ontonagon. But the copper industry continued to be depressed after 1974, for there was a decline of copper demand in industrial countries and a loss of market control by large multinational mining firms when their copper mines in Chile, Peru, Zaire and Zambia were economy has revival behaviors nationalized remained have not of the (Mikesell in stress been 1968 since successful. and 1988). 1974 The 1975 and attempts Thus cohorts Ontonagon the tend at migration to reflect 48 economic hard times that both cohorts had endured. In 1985, the last time they were surveyed, about thirty percent of both the 1968 and 1974 male cohorts and a quarter female cohort resided in Ontonagon. smaller percentage than what was of the 1968 This is a considerably observed for the 1957/58 cohort in 1975, at a somewhat comparable period in its life course. In addition, the retention ratio— the ratio between those who returned and stayed and those who returned and left again-is lower for the later cohorts, except the 1974 females. The ratio for the 1968 cohort, it should be noted, was less than 1; more of those who ever returned remained. left again rather than This observation suggests that members of the 1968 cohort had experienced— and organized their careers in terms of— both boom and bust cycles of the contemporary Ontonagon economy. Many of those who were return migrants in 197 5 left again by 1985. The magnitude of return migrants and their decisions to stay or leave again indicates that the changing local labor market in Ontonagon influenced to some extent the migration behaviors of these young people. But regardless of cohort variations in general migration strategies or responses to local economic circumstances, there is a remarkably consistent and persistent migration among Ontonagon young people. local Pine labor market, Copper, pattern of out­ The deteriorating and particularly the collapse of White only enhanced the likelihood of young people 49 moving away permanently. 1974 Most migrants never returned. cohort had a larger proportion The of migrants who never returned than the earlier cohorts (with the exception of the 1968 female cohort); over fifty percent moved away and never returned. This reflects the economic downturn that the 1974 cohort experienced. time frame difference; for It is also plausible that the shorter the follow-up accounts eleven years rather than for some of the seventeen or eighteen years after high school graduation was the survey follow-up period for the 1974 cohort. Moreover, some gender patterns are observed. differences in out-migration Ontonagon young women were less likely than their male counterparts to return once they moved away from Ontonagon. They had a lower percentage of migrants who ever returned and they had a greater percentage of migrants who returned and left again. For the 1974 cohort, gender differences had leveled off. however, In fact, the 1974 female cohort had far fewer migrants who returned and left again than the 1974 male cohort. Overall, three generalizations can be suggested. First, there has been a remarkable persistence in the flow of out­ migration from Ontonagon. Without doubt, lack of job opportunities in the region is a condition that induces this outflow. Educational ambitions motivate Ontonagon high school graduates to leave. attain further Indeed, they must leave, education, for there is if they aim to no college or 50 university in or near this remote rural area. are clear manifestations of changes Secondly, there in migration patterns associated with changes in the local job market and with the local economic conditions. stronger in Finally, earlier gender differences years and for in patterns were earlier cohorts. As more young women opt for college education, their career tracks have become more comparable with those of young men. in Perhaps it also indicates that opportunities for women a remote promising. rural area have become increasingly more These explanations, however, will come into fuller light when the underlying causes of initial migration— i.e., the structural imperatives of migration are explored. Imperatives for Initial Out-migration The initial out-migration from the home community after high school graduation— and away from the parental home— is, more often individual. than not, a crucial event in the life of any This is especially so for young people reared in a remote rural area, like Ontonagon. Generally, the event of migration is associated with a particular career strategy. In assessing the imperatives for initial out-migration we focused mainly on the circumstances surrounding the move, rather than on any explanations offered by the migrant. Each individual case was examined carefully and over a long period of time; this was possible because very detailed follow-up information had been collected at various stages in the 51 individual's career. Table 3-2 reports cohort and gender. Table 3-2. the results of this assessment, Gender differences are quite evident. Imperatives for Initial Out-migration Ontonagon County, by Gender/Cohort Male Migration Imperatives by 1957/58 from Female 1968 1974 1957/58 1968 1974 Military 34.5 23 .2 24 .4 2 .2 1.2 0.0 Marriage 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.2 4.8 21.3 School 33 .3 47 .6 39.0 40.7 59.5 50.0 Work 31.1 29.2 35.4 32.9 34.5 28.7 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100. 0 (90) 100. 0 (82) 100.0 (82) 100. 0 (91) 100. 0 (84) 100. 0 (80) Parental* Total (N=) *The initial migration was moving away from Ontonagon. For young men, to accompany parents who were one of the more common pathways out of remote rural areas like Ontonagon was by joining the military. A large proportion of Ontonagon males— about one quarter or so— chose a military path after high school graduation. Indeed, about a third of the males in the 1957/58 cohort, when the Korean War was on, enlisted and served in the military. And almost always these young men left home for places outside 52 of Michigan and the Great Lakes area.3 But rarely— in only three cases— did young women take a military path out of Ontonagon. Within a couple years after joining the military, these three had married GIs and at that point left the military. Until recently, it was extremely uncommon for young women in rural areas to pursue their career ambitions by joining the military. Nowadays, military career opportunities for women are far more available and, I expect, a not unusual way for young rural women to build an exciting lif e . For young women, a more common path out of Ontonagon was to accompany elsewhere. 1974 and their husband to his place of residence Except for the 1968 cohort, about a quarter of the 1957/58 cohorts did so. young women— over their spouses 70 percent Moreover, for each cohort— accompanied to seek or to take civilian And, of course, their But, for young men, spouses most of these came mainly jobs elsewhere. from Ontonagon. social norms obliged them not to resume their residency at their wives' places upon marriage. They also bore the burden of finding ways to achieve career success as did young however, men career accomplish if elsewhere. success they Unlike seemed stayed. to be Marriage young men rather as a elsewhere, difficult viable to option enabling them to leave Ontonagon was considered to be out of the question. exception that Furthermore, young women it was were a rule expected rather to than follow an their 53 husbands' foot steps during the early stage of their work career. That an exceptionally low percentage of the 1968 females (4.8%) married and left Ontonagon with their spouses may have been affected by the escalation of the Viet Nam War, the increasing opportunities for women to pursue higher education, and the better jobs for women in business and industry. The pool of available male bachelors in Ontonagon was much smaller at that time, because many of the young men had enlisted and were serving in the military. The prospects for marrying home town boys wasn't good for the 1968 females. Meanwhile, anti­ war demonstrations and the civil rights and feminist movements had impacted upon college campuses and even the main streets of small towns like Ontonagon. country. It was a trying time for the More young women from Ontonagon, and especially the 1968 female migrants experienced the push to be independent and to pursue career goals. the 19 68 before. senior year Their career expectations during in high school were higher than ever More than half of the 1968 female migrants (52.4%) aspired to a professional job as their lifetime work (Table 33). More of them (41.7%) also envisioned themselves as holding a professional career within 20 years of high school graduation (Table 3-4). This stronger and relatively greater desire to achieve career success was clearly reflected in the higher proportion of the 1968 female graduates (60%) who chose to take an educational path out of Ontonagon. 54 Table 3-3. Percentage of Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) Aspiring for A Professional Career, by Gender/Cohort Male Job Aspiration Professional (N=) Table 3-4. 1957/58 Female 1968 1974 46.7 39.0 26.8 (90) (82) (82) Professional (N=) 1968 1974 39.6 52.4 41.3 (91) (84) (80) Percentage of Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) Expecting to Have Attained A Professional Career Twenty Years After Graduation, by Gender/Cohort Male Career Expectation 1957/58 1957/58 Female 1968 1974 40.0 29.3 15.9 (90) (82) (82) 1957/58 1968 1974 20.9 41.7 32.5 (91) (84) (80) 55 As a matter of fact, pursuing further education is the foremost migration imperative for Ontonagon young people. Over the years an increasing number of young men and women decided to go to college or technical schools. education, they had to leave Ontonagon, for To get more there are no colleges or technical schools near Ontonagon.4 A majority of them went to colleges or universities in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan (Northern Michigan Technical Michigan University at University at Houghton/Hancock Superior State University at Sault Ste. Marie, attended schools Marquette, in lower Michigan. and Lake etc.) Some And a few enrolled in colleges elsewhere in the Great Lakes area. Moreover, more young path women Ontonagon. 1957/58 than men chose They were also cohort) to an educational more attend likely technical to leave (particularly schools. the But increasingly, young women in the later cohorts left home to go to college. For female migrants, over half of the later cohorts and two fifths of the 1957/58 cohort left home to go to school. On the other hand, a smaller proportion of male migrants moved to attend school in comparison with that of female migrants. A third of the earliest cohort, almost a half of the 1968 cohort and roughly two fifths of the 1974 cohort left home for school after high school graduation. Generally speaking, young women, particularly the later cohorts, had much higher job aspirations when graduating from high school than their 56 male counterparts. However, a reverse pattern was observed for young men despite the fact that more of the later cohorts left Ontonagon for college. Apparently, young men of the later cohorts were much less serious about advancing their education. For young education men further, and women not to who decided not join the military to pursue or not to get married at the time of high school graduation, to seek or to take jobs elsewhere was the second big pathway out. A fairly large percentage of Ontonagon young people— about a third— left to find or to assume work elsewhere. Employment opportunities in Ontonagon have been very restricted. Over two-thirds of the total Ontonagon high school seniors in this study disagreed with the statement that "Ontonagon is a good place to get elsewhere, a the job."5 most Unlike likely those who destinations attended for school their initial migration were in the Great Lakes region— Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, and the Duluth/Superior and Minneapolis/St. Paul areas of Minnesota. Overall, there are not many changes in the basic migration imperatives that led to initial out-migration over the years. One observes, of course, the increasing importance of education as a pathway out; gender differences in this respect are noteworthy. For Ontonagon young people, these four basic migration imperatives represent the main career goals they intend to 57 pursue after graduating from high school. These career goals reflect the entering of a new phase of their Namely, it is to map out a career plan so that a rewarding, protected work career will be in the making. down, and have a family. a path life course. to secure a It is to settle Continuing education was viewed as gainful work career. A majority of Ontonagon young people with better grades in high school left to get an education. or being Those with lower grades, no interest in, financially incapabable schooling generally went to work. another career alternative for of attaining further Joining the military was Ontonagon young men. Certainly, some young people, mostly young women, decided to get married shortly after high school graduation. The changing local labor market and economic conditions in this remote community appear to have had little effect on the basic principles or strategies of career building employed by Ontonagon young people. building strategies, influences on expectations Ontonagon. who left if there are any, Ontonagon and Rather, young circumstances people the changing career are responses to the of intruding changing norms, from outside The increasing number of Ontonagon young people to attain further education probably echoed the national trend for more young high school graduates to go to college. Ontonagon young women evidently favor somewhat different career strategies, however. Education as a pathway out has 58 been more important for them than it is for Ontonagon young men. Until recently, joining the military was hardly ever a good career option for Ontonagon young women as it had been for Ontonagon young men. Marriage shortly after high school graduation, after all, was not meant for everyone. Employment opportunities were even more restrictive, for extractive based economic activities in remote rural areas such as Ontonagon provided mainly "macho" types of jobs. Furthermore, more of the Ontonagon young women aspired to a professional career which usually required additional schooling. Perhaps, more importantly, this was because they had better grades than boys in high school. challenges and They demands were of much going more to prepared college or for the technical schools. Although Ontonagon young people showed no significant basic changes of career building strategies over the years, each career path or structural Ontonagon young people who chose a military path far away nature of military service. attain a college degree. went to school. from home. outcomes. to instance, for places career rise migration left and gives different always behaviors imperative It is For in the They were also very unlikely to It was very different from those who The latter often attended universities or colleges that were reasonably close to home as we mentioned earlier. They therefore could maintain regular contacts with their families. After all, they only left home for college. 59 What are other consequences associated with these four basic structural imperatives of out-migration? Specifically, what is the influence of the changing local labor market? Initial Out-migration and Migration Histories The persistent out-flow of young people from a remote and poor rural community such as Ontonagon has been a longstanding concern for the community. especially the best The chronic loss of human capital, and the brightest young people, jeopardizes the economic vitality of the community and may result in its decline. that, the negative On the other hand, impacts of the it can be argued "brain drain" communities like Ontonagon is grossly exaggerated Fuguitt 1991). can be shed on on rural (Voss and With the unique longitudinal data, more light the consequences of out-migration. Since gender differences are evident in out-migration patterns and in the structural imperatives that motivate the initial out­ migration, separate tables for male and female migrants will be presented in this section. Regardless people from of various Ontonagon to career leave goals their that home drive young community, the likelihood of returning to Ontonagon is substantially reduced once they decide to leave. The persistent out-flow of young people from Ontonagon continues to be a fact of life for the community. The 1957/58 males who left to join the military was the only exception (Table 3-5). More than half of them 60 (58.1%) returned to Ontonagon rather than remaining away. Many of them were drawn out of Ontonagon only to fulfill their military obligation. Table 3-5. Male Migrants: Migration Histories, by Imperatives for Initial Out-migration from Ontonagon County and Cohort Migration Imperative Migration History Military Marriage School Work Parental* 1957/58 Return Migrant Migrant Now Total (N=) 58.1 41.9 100. 0 (31) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0) 23 .3 76.7 100. 0 (30) 46.4 53 .6 100.0 (28) 0.0 100.0 100. 0 (1) 33.3 66.7 100. 0 (39) 20.8 79.2 100. 0 (24) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0) 25.0 75.0 100. 0 (32) 20.7 79.3 100. 0 (29) 0.0 100.0 100. 0 (1) 1968 Return Migrant Migrant Now Total (N=) 21.1 78.9 100. 0 (19) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0) 1974 Return Migrant Migrant Now Total (N=) 20.0 80.0 100. 0 (20) *The initial migration was moving away from Ontonagon. 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0) to accompany For the 1968 and 1974 male migrants, parents who were the likelihood of their returning to Ontonagon was similar— roughly one fifth of them returned. Surprisingly, a slightly higher proportion of these young men who left to obtain further education returned 61 to Ontonagon in comparison with those who had other career goals when they left. attended school fourth of the A third of the 1968 male migrants who elsewhere moved back to Ontonagon. 1974 male migrants did. And a Interestingly, a reverse pattern was observed for the 1957/58 male migrants. The 1957/58 male migrants who left to attend school elsewhere were least likely to return to Ontonagon. times less likely to return to They were about two Ontonagon than their male counterparts who left for career goals other than education. Undoubtedly, the career tracks and out-migration patterns of Ontonagon young men who chose not to attain additional schooling were notably affected by the changing local labor market and economic conditions in Ontonagon. These impacts on young men who decided to pursue postsecondary education is less clear. There were always some rural young men who preferred to go back to their home community after finishing school elsewhere. On the other hand, of course, there were rural young men who realized that further schooling was the wrong career departure. choice and returned home shortly after their As more young men opt for college, more of them drop out of school and return to Ontonagon. So do Ontonagon young women. When the educational attainment of those young men who left for schooling is examined, the changing local labor market and economic conditions in Ontonagon appears to indeed have affected their migration behaviors and career tracks. 62 During the economic upturns, many more Ontonagon young men with college degrees returned to their home community. Forty- three percent of the 1957/58 male migrants who left home to get an education returned bachelor's degree. to Ontonagon with at least a On the other hand, only thirteen percent of the 1974 male counterparts had a college degree. In spite of the persistence of economic stress in Ontonagon since 1975, thirty-nine percent of the 1968 male migrants who left for school subsequently returned with a college degree and became permanent members of the Ontonagon community. Unlike their male counterparts, the out-migration patterns of Ontonagon young women vary by the career choices they made when they left Ontonagon. Although cohort differences are noticeable, the changing local labor market in Ontonagon apparently has negligible effects on migration behaviors and career tracks of the earlier cohorts (Table 36). As I contended earlier, career opportunities Ontonagon young women at home are very restricted. for Due to the nature of the Ontonagon economy, which is solely based upon extractive strength. to work industries, many local jobs demand physical Right or wrong, young women have had little chance at the mine education as a or pathway in the woods. out is still Although an changing, important strategy employed by young women from Ontonagon. career 63 Table 3-6. Female Migrants: Migration Histories, by Imperatives for Initial Out-migration from Ontonagon County and Cohort Migration Imperative Migration History Military Marriage School Work 1957/58 Return Migrant Migrant Now Total N 0.0 100. 0 100.0 (2) 45.5 54.5 100. 0 (22) 16.2 83.8 100. 0 (37) 26.7 73.7 100.0 (30) 12.0 88.0 100. 0 (50) 20.7 79.3 100. 0 (29) 27 .5 72.5 100. 0 (40) 30.4 69.4 100. 0 (23) decided to 1968 Return Migrant Migrant Now Total N 0.0 100. 0 100. 0 (1) 0.0 100. 0 100. 0 (4) 1974 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0) Return Migrant Migrant Now Total N Young women from 41.2 58.8 100. 0 (17) Ontonagon who get an education, as one would expect, were least likely to return to Ontonagon. outside They were Michigan and also more the Great likely to Lakes live region. in places This is in striking contrast to young women who moved away because when or after Ontonagon. they married their husbands to leave This is particularly so for the 1957/58 cohort. For the 1957/58 female migrants, three times more Ontonagon. decided likely than the the latter type was about former type to return to On the other hand, the difference between female 64 migrants who attended school elsewhere and those who sought employment elsewhere was much smaller and leveled off in recent years. A distinctive cohort out-migration pattern was manifested among Ontonagon young women who pursued career goals other than marriage. They affected the distinctive characteristics of the cohort's migration history. They, in effect, accounted for the lower percentage of the 1968 female migrants and for the higher proportion of the 1974 female migrants to return to Ontonagon. The transformation of the Ontonagon labor market into a service-oriented economy and the rapidly increasing number of women in the workplace may account for the higher return ratio of the 197 4 female migrants who left for school or employment. A second income from the wives perhaps makes returning possible for the couple to make a living in a remote community such as Ontonagon when her economic outlook has remained difficult and uncertain. Clearly, the manifestations of changes in patterns of return migration associated with changes in the local labor market and economic conditions are evident for Ontonagon young men. pursue It is particularly so for young men who chose not to further education. Their career opportunities and migration patterns are closely tied to not only the changing Ontonagon economy and its region— i.e. the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, but also to the economic prospects metropolitan areas downstate. found in the 65 Similarly, as more Ontonagon young women enter the workplace, their migration patterns are certainly more likely to be influenced by the changing local labor market. Unlike their male counterparts, however, more female migrants in the later cohorts were returning to or moving into rather than leaving Ontonagon or other rural communities in the Upper Peninsula (Table 3-7). Table 3-7. Residence Location of Present ("Migrant Now"), by Gender/Cohort Male Residence Location Female 1968 1974 14.9 16.7 21.8 9.5 31.3 15. 3 12.7 28.3 28. 6 13 .4 33 .3 25.5 34.6 38 .3 47.6 40.3 34 .7 40.0 100.0 (52) 100. 0 (60) 100.0 (63) 100. 0 (67) 100. 0 (72) 100.0 (55) 1968 1974 30.8 11.7 14.3 5.8 21.7 Great Lakes* 30.8 Elsewhere Upper Peninsula Lower Michigan Total (N=) Migrants 1957/58 1957/58 *Great lakes area includes Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin and Northeastern Minnesota (Duluth/Superior, Minneapolis/St. Paul). Overview Although changing patterns of out-migration from Ontonagon since 1957/58 are clearly observed, there appear to be few changes in the structural imperatives that motivate 66 Ontonagon young men and women to leave their home communities. Searching for career opportunities elsewhere has been a normal part of life in this remote community. Consequently there has been a continual outflow of young people from Ontonagon over the years. What has changed, though, are the norms— society's attitudes and social expectations— that shape the formation of career plans of Ontonagon young people. What also has changed are the characteristics of the local rural labor market. has been transformed into a service-oriented economy. is an increasing proportion of female workers force. And tightly the linked local to labor market metropolitan It There in the labor is becoming downstate, ever more and, more importantly, to the global economy. Parallelling these changes, Ontonagon young women, in the later cohorts particularly, entered the out-migration stream. Like their male counterparts, non-migrants are a rarity. Unlike male migrants, however, the changing local job market on the likelihood of returning to Ontonagon affected only the 1974 female cohort. career choices Moreover, for Ontonagon young women, the they made when they left Ontonagon determined their likelihood to return to Ontonagon. largely This is less obvious for Ontonagon young men. The economic good times in Ontonagon apparently prompted a large proportion of male migrants to return. them a higher percentage of return migrants were had Among recent 67 college graduates. return migrants More importantly, these college educated tended to stay and have become permanent members of the Ontonagon community despite the great economic difficulty that the Ontonagon economy has suffered in recent years. Since the collapse of White Pine Copper in 1975, I believe, there are fewer recent college graduates returning to Ontonagon. If the domestic copper industry continues to slump, the successful revival of the Ontonagon economy in the near future is very doubtful. On the other hand, a declining desire to achieve career success was observed for the 1974 male cohort. Eighteen percent of that cohort had earned a college degree in comparison with about twenty-five percent of the earlier cohorts— in spite of the fact that a larger proportion of the 1974 cohort had left to go to college. If this trend continues perhaps the loss of human capital will again become a matter of concern and will generate demands for immediate action in this remote community. 68 1. "Now" for "migrants now" refers to when the last survey was conducted— 1975 for the 1957/58 cohort and 1985 for later cohorts. A migrant "now" may have remained residing outside Ontonagon since high school graduation or may have returned to Ontonagon earlier but left again and was residing elsewhere when his/her whereabouts was ascertained. 2. This is an arbitrary criterion, but it distinguishes fairly well the brief "look-about" visit from the longer residential shift. 3. The Great Lakes area includes the states of Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana and the Duluth/Superior and Minneapolis/St. Paul areas of Minnesota. 4. Gogebic Jr. Community College, the nearest college, one hour drive from Ontonagon. 5. Table 3-A. is a Community Evaluation by Ontonagon High School Students (at Time of Graduation) by Gender/Cohort Male 1957/58 1968 Female 1974 1957/58 1968 1974 84.3 78.9 67.7 "Ontonagon a good place to get ia job?" disagree 63 .9 65.1 60.2 "Ontonagon a good place to live after graduation?" dislike it 22.7 20.9 23.7 27.8 43.2 28.0 "Ontonagon a good place to live after marriage?" dislike it (N=) 21.6 20.9 19.4 22.6 37.9 16.1 (97) (86) (93) (115) (95) (93) Chapter 4. The previous Migration of Social Capital chapter focused on the patterns of individual migration and the motivational imperatives that had led to migration. qualitative selectivity Here I will deal more directly with the character of of migration, these and the remain behind or who return. migration streams, the attributes of those who I am especially concerned with the long-range impacts of out-migration from Ontonagon on the changing social structure and development of this rural community. Two aspects considered: potential, of Ontonagon's "social capital" are 1) the factor of individual ability and career as represented by the scholastic status a young person has achieved in the school system, and 2) the factor of social class background, as represented by father's occupation and status in the community. The latter, insofar as it is associated with the migratory behavior of these young people, suggests how migration may affect change in the stratification system of this isolated rural community. possible long-range consequences, The former suggests i.e. "brain drain". Although the effects of scholastic performance (or final graduation rank in high school)1 and social class origin on the educational or migratory plans of rural youth have been widely documented, the relationship between scholastic performance and the migration behaviors of rural young people 69 70 over time has not been systematically studied. More often than not the long-term effects are simply assumed from the strong positive association between educational attainment and migration behavior (Suval 1972) . Consequently, the "brain drain" from rural communities resulting from selective out­ migration is accepted as a generalized assumption. The literature to date suggests that rural communities in America have experienced and are experiencing a severe loss of human capital— a loss which negatively impacts on the processes of economic development (Lichter, Heaton and Fuguitt 1979; Garkovich 1989; Pollard, O'Hare and Berg 1990). Social class origin, on the other hand, has been firmly and consistently identified as an important "selectivity" factor in determining and defining the characteristics of the rural-urban migration streams. Rural to urban migrants are more likely to be rural young people from higher socioeconomic status backgrounds. But the effects of this differential pattern on the stratification system of a rural community are not at all clear (Garkovich 1983; Voss and Fuguitt 1991). Whether the flow of rural outmigration will eventually enhance the socioeconomic status of those who are left behind, whether the structural impacts are negligible, and/or whether the outmigration flow will create tensions and strains within the stratification inquiry. system of a rural community, merit further 71 Social Class Origin and Scholastic Performance Level Family and school are two pivotal social institutions in modern society that nurture the career ambitions of youths, and prepare them with knowledge responsible, productive workers. find a satisfying achievement. way of and skills to become Hopefully, young people will life in the process of career Social class origin, as an ascribed status that young people are born into and scholastic grade level, as an achieved status that young people themselves have earned in the school system, are two essential determinants of their educational ambition, educational attainment, career success, and the niche they will eventually occupy in the world of work. Since transitions social that affects college effects of class the educational lead up to college more than it directly enrollment social class origin or affects graduation origin on (Hout eventual 1988), the educational attainments are more likely to have been experienced by young people while they are still in high school. During the high school years and even earlier, their intellectual capabilities are being ascertained, tested, their scholastic potential is being their future career choices are being set, their aspiration levels are being formed. and For Ontonagon young people, the act of moving away represents a major transitional point in the status attainment process. Indeed, migration is an integral part of the status attainment process for most 72 rural young people. The relationships between social class origin, scholastic attainment level and migration behaviors of Ontonagon young people are complex. School grade achievement is determined in part by social class origin. But its effect on the status attainment process is generally indirect. At the same time, however, both scholastic grade level and social class origin also have very important direct influences on the process. In Ontonagon, as has been observed in other rural communities in the United States, girls tend to do better in high school than boys. Schwarzweller (1976) observed that girls, particularly during the 1950s and 1960s, were markedly overrepresented in the upper scholastic achievement ranks of the various high schools, on the basis of total grade point averages at time of graduation. differential. My data clearly reflect this Roughly two-thirds of the students who have attained grade point averages that place them in the upper half of their respective high school graduating classes are girls (Table 4-1). This gender differential persists even when social class origin is taken into account. We observe, however, that the social class scholastic performance is stronger for boys. effect on Ontonagon boys from upper class families tended to have better graduation records than their lower class counterparts. The class effect also appears to have gotten somewhat stronger for boys over the years. Among Ontonagon girls the class effect is 73 relatively weak and is inclined to be negative for the younger cohorts. Table 4-1. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Ranked in Upper Half of School Class on Performance, by Family SES and Cohort/Gender Percent in Upper Half of School Class Boys Low SES Cohort 1957/58 1968 1974 30.0 28 .3 33 .3 Degree of Association (Q) Girls High SES Total* 39 .4 41.2 51.1 33. 3 33 .8 41.9 Low SES High SES Total* Boys Girls 65.4 74 .5 63.3 67.6 68 .3 57.1 66.1 71.7 60. 4 .21 .28 .35 .05 -.15 -.13 *That the total of each cohort whose high school graduation rank were at the upper half does not add up to 100 percent for boys and girls is due to the nature of longitudinal studies where follow-up information was not obtainable for everyone in the original survey. The social class factor is becoming much more important as a condition affecting the relationship between gender and scholastic performance. In earlier years gender dominated as an explanation of scholastic attainment level in high school. In recent years (1974) we observe a negligible effect of gender on scholastic performance among young people from upper class families, but the substantial effect of gender on scholastic performance in the case of young people from lower class families persists rather strongly. Social class origin had little influence in specifying 74 the gender effect in 1957. It began showing a stronger conditioning effect in 1968, and it manifested considerable influence as a conditioning factor among young people from lower class families, but hardly any influence among young people from higher class families. Thus, for present purposes social class origin and scholastic performance will be used as independent determinants of migration behavior, both of which profoundly affect the status attainment process. Migration Imperatives and Social Class The contention that non-migrants, comparatively, tend to come from lower social class origins than migrants partially substantiated in this case (Table 4-2). is an important migration are factor. much Social greater for class males is But gender differentials than in females. Furthermore, for males, the class effect on propensity to move away from Ontonagon was extremely cohort but has since declined. strong for the 1957/58 Male non-migrants from upper class families increased from literally none in the 1957/58 cohort to 8.9 percent in the 1974 cohort. such trend is observed. For females, no Rather, a reversal from the earlier cohorts is noticed for the 1974 cohort, though the difference is quite small. The 1974 female cohort stemming from upper class families was somewhat more likely to remain in Ontonagon as non-migrants. 75 Table 4-2. Migration Imperative, by Family SES and Gender/Cohort Male 1957/58 Migration Imperative "Never Migrated" "Migrated" Military School Work Parental* Total Percent (N=) Low SES 11.1 88.9 (33.3) (28.6) (25.4) (1.6) 100.0 (63) High SES 0.0 100. 0 (29.4) (35.3) (35.3) (0.0) 100. 0 (31) 1968 Low SES 1974 High SES 4.2 95.8 (20.8) (39.6) (35.4) (0.0) 100. 0 (48) 5.3 94.7 (23.7) (52.6) (18.4) (0.0) 100.0 (38) Low SES High SES 14 .6 85.4 (25.0) (20.8) (39.6) (0.0) 100. 0 (48) 8.9 91.1 (17.8) (48.9) (22.2) (2.2) 100. 0 (45) Female 1968 1957/58 Migration Imperative Low SES 21.0 "Never Migrated" 79.0 "Migrated" Military (2.5) School (25.9) (28.4) Work (22.2) Marriage** Total Percent 100.0 (81) (N=) High SES 20.6 79.4 (0.0) (47.0) (20.6) (11.8) 100. 0 (34) Low SES 13.2 86.8 (0.0) (49.0) (34.0) (3.8) 100. 0 (53) 1974 High SES 9.5 90.5 (2.4) (57.1) (26.2) (4.8) 100.0 (42) Low SES 12.0 88.0 (0.0) (38.0) (30.0) (20.0) 100.0 (50) High SES 16.7 83.3 (0.0) (47.6) (19.0) (16.7) 100.0 (42) *The initial migration was to accompany parents who were moving away from Ontonagon. **Moved away to join husband at time of or after marriage (recorded for women only). 76 Education has been an important pathway out of the region for Ontonagon young people. proportion of Ontonagon We therefore expect that a large young people who left college elsewhere were from upper class families. families are more likely to encourage further education of their children. and to to attend Upper class sponsor the We observe that about a third of the 1957/58 cohort and half of the younger cohorts who came from upper class families were pursuing educational goals when they left Ontonagon. On the other hand, for males from lower class families, the likelihood of attending school elsewhere was lower and in fact diminished significantly for the 1974 cohort. For the 1974 cohort, those who came from lower class families were less than half as likely to leave for further education. The increasing social class disparity in terms of propensity to migrate for pursuing career goals in education was not observed, however, for Ontonagon females. To the contrary, the differences had greatly declined for the younger females. Increasingly, females from lower class families were choosing the educational path over other career goals when they left Ontonagon. upper class Meanwhile the likelihood of females from families furthering their education elsewhere remained remarkably stable over time.2 Unlike families had the case of females, males from increased proportionately their going to college elsewhere over the years. upper class likelihood of But this pattern 77 was not paralleled families. by males who grew up in lower class Rather, they witnessed a decline in likelihood of going to college elsewhere. As we observed earlier, the class effect on grades had become stronger for the 1974 cohort. It indicates that a larger proportion of the 1974 males who had better grades in school were also from upper class families and this in part generated an increasing gap between social classes. Despite the slight edge in grades (or no advantage for the 1957/58 cohort) of females who had grown up in lower class families, they were less likely to migrate to pursue further education. Social important class determinant origin for in effect was Ontonagon young a far more women in differentiating whether educational goals were their primary motive for leaving. educational Class effects associated with seeking opportunities elsewhere prominent for the 1957/58 cohort. were particularly The 1957/58 females from upper class families were roughly twice more likely to leave to get an education than were females from lower class families. Although Ontonagon young women who grew up in lower class families, particularly the younger cohorts, were more likely to leave to seek educational opportunities elsewhere than their male counterparts, like males from lower class families, they tended to have career goals other than education in mind when they left Ontonagon. For both Ontonagon young men and 78 women who were from lower class families, the career choice of whether or not to further their education was not as set a decision as it was for of those course, who came they had from upper better class families (unless, grades in school.) So when changes occurred in social norms and in the expectations or situational circumstances that affected career decisions, those from lower class families appeared much more responsive to those changes. looking good ahead, When things were perceived to be more of them simply "joined the crowd" because going to college was a thing to do. But when economic circumstances became tougher, more of them elected to pursue career goals other than education. However, regardless of the fact that class effects are observed on the decision of Ontonagon young people to seek educational opportunities elsewhere, the likelihood of their eventually completing a college education similar, with the exception of the 1968 males Seeking educational opportunities was amazingly (Table 4-3). elsewhere was more likely to be normatively expected for both Ontonagon young men and women from upper class families. This was not so for young men and women from lower class families. It is because of the class disadvantage that had to be overcome by Ontonagon young people from lower class families, that the decision to pursue further education in itself must be regarded as a giant step class forward. families The decision to leave for younger people Ontonagon and to from pursue lower further 79 education, represented not only the academic success they had achieved in the Ontonagon school system but also the greater parental support and encouragement they received at home (Clay 197 6). After that big decision was made, young people from lower class families had chances similar to those of their upper class counterparts to attain the educational goals they had set out to achieve when they course, left Ontonagon. But, of only a relatively small proportion of young people from lower class families were in a position to achieve the goal of going to college. Table 4-3. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Initial Migration Imperative, Family SES and Gender/Cohort Percent Completing College Male 1957/58 Initial Migration Imperative Low SES School Non-school 77.8 7.9 High SES 75.0 9.1 1968 Low SES 1974 High SES 42.1 3.7 60.0 6.3 Low SES High SES 50. 0 0.0 50.0 5.3 Female 1968 1957/58 Initial Migration Imperative Low SES School Non-school 47 .6 4.7 High SES 50.0 0.0 Low SES 50.0 0.0 1974 High SES 50.0 0.0 Low SES High SES 52.6 0.0 55.0 0.0 80 Again the escalation of the Viet Nam War probably accounts for the observed social class differences in college attainment of the 19 68 male cohort. Pursuing further education was one way to obtain a draft deferment. Among those who left to attend school elsewhere, more from lower class families went on to technical schools. If they attended college, the drop out rates were much higher than their counterparts from upper class families. But an alarming trend is observed for Ontonagon young men. The college graduation rate among those who attended school elsewhere dropped a third for the youngest cohort. addition, the chance of attaining a college education In for those who did not set out to do so in the first place is also declining, though the odds all along are relatively low. (This decline was almost totally manifested among those from lower class families.) Ontonagon young women on the other hand have had a very different pattern of experiences. among those who remarkably the The college graduation rate left to get an education elsewhere same over the years. showed only a very slight advantage. rare The younger stayed cohorts It was also extremely for those who pursued non-educational goals when they left Ontonagon to attain a college education. As we noticed earlier, social class origin has no effect on the college graduation rate of females Ontonagon to pursue educational goals. who first left Nor have the odds of 81 their attaining a college degree changed much over time. Further, the chance of completing a college degree almost does not exist for female migrants who had chosen career goals other than education. Thus, it is the changing proportion of Ontonagon young women who chose an educational pathway out of Ontonagon level that achieved determines by that the eventual particular college cohort. attainment Of course, an overwhelming majority of Ontonagon young women left to pursue a college education. Because families many fewer 1957/58 females from lower first left to pursue educational goals, class only 17.4 percent of this cohort had earned a college degree (which was lower in comparison with 26.3 percent and 22.6 percent of the 1968 and higher the level 1974 of females college respectively.) attainment Similarly, achieved by the the 1968 females was largely attributed to the fact that more of them from both classes were seeking educational opportunities elsewhere when they first left Ontonagon. However, it was mainly the marked drop in the odds of attaining a college degree among those who sought educational opportunities elsewhere that accounted for the much level of college attainment of the 1974 male cohort earned a cohorts). college degree; 28.9% and 25.6% for the lower (18.3% earlier Certainly, the fact that far fewer 1974 males who came from lower class families decided to pursue educational goals also contributed to this decline in college attainment. 82 But even a much larger proportion of the 1968 males, from both classes, who had chosen an educational path out of Ontonagon could not overcome the deficits incurred by the lower odds they had compared with the 1957/58 males. The educational achievements of the 1957/58 males were extremely astonishing. Three-fourths of those who left to go to college eventually attained a college degree. They also had More the highest rate of college graduates. significantly, half of those 28 college graduates obtained at least an MA degree. veterinarian one There were three Ph.D.s, lawyer and one with a one M.D., one seminary Perhaps ethnic drive is an important factor. degree. Many of them were born into first or second-generation immigrant families where the grandparents or parents themselves were immigrants from the old country. In Upper Peninsula immigrant families, mainly from Scandinavian peasant stock, education was highly regarded. Neither can we ignore the fact that a very Ontonagon school system as extraordinary achievements. well may account for good their Possibly, the 1957/58 cohort grew up in an era of post-war economic boom when the sky seemed to be no limit to their career opportunities. The 1974 males had quite different experiences. First, they had witnessed the unfolding of an "Energy Crisis" in 1972 when the economy of metropolitan downstate started deteriorate and had reached a crisis stage in 1974. home front there was more economic bad news. to On the A worldwide 83 slump in the copper market led to a massive lay-off at White Pine Copper in late 1975. The economic outlook, downstate or at home in the Upper Peninsula, whether appeared to be very murky and discouraging for the 1974 males. From their perspective, beginning-level career opportunities were quite different from the opportunities that awaited the 1957 male graduates. market The energy crisis had upset the delicate equilibrium and had forced a restructuring labor of the American economy; in 1974 this restructuring process was just beginning to be felt in the more remote corners of America, like Ontonagon. Rural young men, than young women to it seems, have a much greater tendency become discouraged worsening economic conditions. and alienated by Rural norms, particularly in the Ontonagon case, have always put a great many pressures on men to succeed. sanctioned (Females, especially in earlier times had the option of marrying up.) These generalizations probably apply more to Ontonagon young men and women who were reared in lower class families. They were less likely to be motivated to set high educational goals, for they perceived such goals to be unattainable during economic hard times. And again for this was especially so for males rather than females. Since the majority of Ontonagon young people have left and will continue to leave Ontonagon, the consequences of class effects on whether or not they choose an educational 84 pathway are profound. impacts of social I shall next explore the long-range class differentials in migration on the social structure of the Ontonagon community. Migration Histories, Social Class and Educational/ Work Attainments For Ontonagon young people, migration represented a big step toward becoming someone or making adults. it in the world of Whether they left to get an education, to find a job, to enter military service (either as a duty or for a career) or simply to fulfill a marriage obligation, return to Ontonagon, if and when they they bring back with them a variety of new ideas, experiences, skills, and knowledge. the Ontonagon people community eventually come very back, much and is What concerns whether someday these resume young important leadership roles in the community. Although there has been a persistent out-migration stream of Ontonagon young people over the years, Ontonagon men tended to return in significant numbers during economic good times. But they were also quick to leave or were much less likely to return when the local economy turned sour. Class differentials in return migration clearly echo the changing local labor market and economic conditions. Ontonagon young men who came from upper class families were not only more likely to leave Ontonagon, as we noticed earlier, but also for the earlier two cohorts more likely to 85 return and stay (Table 4-4). that the Ontonagon The great economic difficulties community had to overcome since collapse of the White Pine Copper Company in 1975, the did not prompt many of the returned migrants who stemmed from upper class families to leave Ontonagon again. Rather, the bad times pressed returned migrants from lower class families to leave again. Forty percent of the returned 1968 males from lower class families had left again whereas only twenty-four percent of their upper class counterparts did. But the continuing economic stress in Ontonagon had very different upper impacts on the class families 1974 males. were just not The 1974 males coming back at from all. Seventy-one percent of them, which was the highest among all cohorts, never returned to Ontonagon once they left. Even if they returned and stayed, they were less likely to do so than their lower class counterparts, among earlier cohorts. which was the opposite case Although the 1974 males from lower class families were more inclined to move back, half of those who returned left Ontonagon again. For Ontonagon young women, far fewer of them had returned and stayed. families. Among those who did, more were from upper class However, class differentials for the 1974 females were negligible. 86 Table 4-4. Migration Histories, by Family SES and Gender/Cohort Male 1957/58 Migration History "Never Migrated" "Migrated" Returned Once Multiple Returned Returned, Left Again Never Returned Total Percent (N=) 1968 Low SES High SES Low SES High SES 11.1 88.9 (27.0) (7.9) (12.7) (41.3) 100. 0 0.0 100. 0 (32.4) (14.7) (11.8) (41.1) 100.0 4.2 95.8 (12.5) (8.3) (39.6) (35.4) 100.0 5.3 94.7 (31.6) (0.0) (23.7) (39.4) 100.0 (63) (34) (48) (38) 1974 Low SES High SES 14.6 8.9 85.4 91.1 (22.9) (15.6) (0.0) (0.0) (22.9) (4.4) (39.6) (71.1) 100. 0 100. 0 (48) (45) Female 1957/58 Migration History Low SES High SES 1968 Low SES High SES 1974 Low SES High SES "Never Migrated" 21.0 20.6 13.2 9.5 12.0 16.7 "Migrated" 79 .0 79.3 86.8 90.5 88. 0 83.4 Returned Once (14.8) (17.6) (7.5) (16.7) (26.0) (26.2) Multiple Returned (4.9) (5.9) (1.9) (0.0) (2.0) (0.0) Returned, Left Again (9.9) (17.6) (18.9) (16.7) (4.0) (4.8) Never Returned (49.4) (38.2) (58.5) (57.1) (56.0) (52.4) Total Percent 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (81) (34) (53) (42) (50) (42) (N=) 87 Although Ontonagon young people from upper class families were more likely to move away from Ontonagon, they also tended to return and became permanent members of the community, with the exception of the 1974 cohort. Further, among returned migrants, those from upper class families were more prone than their lower class counterparts to have completed a college education when they decided to return and stay Apparently, returned especially Ontonagon eventual career (Table 4-6). migrants men, success from were even upper more (Table 4-5). class inclined without a families, to college attain education Very often they, especially the younger cohorts, became local merchants, shop owners (whether it was to take over family businesses or to open their own small enterprises) or store managers. Some (the 1957/58 cohort mainly) came home to professional jobs such as teachers, technicians. be farmers. local officials, or Very few (the 1957/58 cohort only) returned to Even in the midst of economic downturn in Ontonagon, some 1974 males from upper class families returned home to eventually own their own business. clear that distinct class advantages people when they returned to Ontonagon. Indeed, awaited these it is young 88 Table 4-5. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Place of Residence, Family SES and Gender/Cohort Percent Completing College Male 1968 1957/58 High SES Place of Residence Low SES Low SES Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 3.4 0.0 4 .5 18.8 0.0 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 47 .1 44 .4 25. 0 1974 Low SES High SES 35.7 0.0 41.7 5.6 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 33 .3 13 .3 35.3 High SES Female 1968 1957/58 1974 Place of Residence Low SES Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 3 .0 0.0 6.3 6.7 0.0 12 .5 16.7 0.0 40.0 9.1 0.0 14 .3 5.0 0.0 7.1 11.1 0.0 18.2 22 .9 36.8 26.8 35.5 30.0 37.5 High SES Low SES High SES Low SES High SES 89 Table 4-6. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Attaining A Professional Career*, by Place of Residence, Family SES and Gender/Cohort Percent of Attaining A Professional Career Male 1968 1957/58 1974 Place of Residence Low SES High SES Low SES High SES Low SES High SES Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 20.0 14 .3 22 .2 31.2 0.0 31.2 10.0 0.0 12.5 50.0 0.0 58.3 6.7 0.0 11.1 33.3 25.0 40.0 48 .5 64 .7 36.1 45.0 21.4 48.3 Female 1968 1957/58 Place of Residence Low SES High SES Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 20.0 0.0 37.5 33 .3 40.0 25.0 35.7 66.7 Low SES 1974 High SES Low SES High SES 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 33 .3 33.3 33.3 33 .3 7.7 0.0 11.1 10.5 55. 6 26.1 26.7 *It includes self-employed persons. 90 In all likelihood returned migrants success much more so than non-migrants. did make it in the Ontonagon attained career But some non-migrants situation by becoming the proprietors of a small scale garage, beauty saloon or foster home. Overall, among young people who resided in Ontonagon at the time of our last follow-up survey (they were either non­ migrants or migrants), those reared in upper class families were more likely than their lower class counterparts to attain career success. Of course, those who actually achieved career success in Ontonagon were in the minority . VJhtit can we say about the stratification system of the Ontonagon community in light of the persistent out-migration of young people over the years and the changing composition of returned migrants? Ontonagon young people who never move away, that they are better off, opportunities at home. their own unemployed business, for long For it well may be given the very restricted career Although few make a living by owning they are periods not of as time likely as to were the have been returned migrants. The local merchants after all are most likely to have sons and daughters eventually taking over the family business. Thanks to the reopening and expansion of White Pine Copper there were additional jobs available and the Ontonagon population remained relatively stable between 1950 and mid1970. Ontonagon young people indeed were coming back, having families and wishing to stay permanently. Some had been able 91 to acquire their own business lower class families). officials or nurses. (even some who were reared in Others Certainly, became teachers, local the majority of them were working for the mine as blue collar workers. Without doubt, during to the economic relatively good upturn career there appear opportunities people who want to return and stay. for have Ontonagon been young And, of course, returned migrants are essential to the wellbeing and development of the Ontonagon community. However, the fortune of local merchants, shop owners, store managers and those aspiring young adults who hope one day to participate in the local business community, the continuing prosperity of the Ontonagon community. lies in If the persistent economic distress of the Ontonagon economy cannot be reversed soon, the gradual erosion of career opportunities for young people who want to reside in Ontonagon will be inevitably worsened. Migration Imperatives and Scholastic Performance Grades, as an indicator of individual academic achievement in the school system, is an important determinant of migration for Ontonagon young people. Moreover, scholastic performance is an effective sorting out mechanism that, as our data reveals, differentiates the motivational imperatives of migration. high school Return migration, for instance, is associated with graduation ranks. Finally, the influence of 92 scholastic stronger performance on migration selectivity for Ontonagon young men than is much it is for Ontonagon young women. Non-migrants are more likely than migrants attained lower grades in high school (Table 4-7). of scholastic performance on whether young to have The effect people from Ontonagon will migrate or not has remained relatively strong over the years. It is particularly so for Ontonagon young men even if social class origin is taken into account3. case of disturbed the due 1968 to males, a I deepening expect of that the the Viet Nam In the pattern was War. For Ontonagon young women, unlike younger cohorts, non-migrants of the 1957/58 cohort achieved higher scholastic grade levels in school. Like social class origin, for Ontonagon females the effect of scholastic performance on migration differentials is mixed. 93 Table 4-7. Migration Imperative, by High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort Male 1957/58__________ 1968 1974 Migration Imperative Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half "Never Migrated" "Migrated" Military School Work Parental* Total Percent (N=) 11. 3 88.7 (40.2) (9.6) (37.1) (1.6) 100. 0 (62) 0.0 100. 0 (12.9) (77.4) (9.7) (0.0) 100. 0 (31) 3.8 96.2 (26.4) (32.1) (37.7) (0.0) 100. 0 (53) 3.7 96.3 (11.1) (77.8) (7.4) (0.0) 100.0 (27) 16.7 83.3 (27.8) (13.0) (42.5) (0.0) 100. 0 (54) 5.1 94.9 (12.8) (64.1) (15.4) (2.6) 100. 0 (39) Female 1957/58 1968 1974 Migration Imperative Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half "Never Migrated" "Migrated" Military School Work Marriage** Total Percent (N=) 18.4 81.6 (2.6) (21.1) (28.9) (28.9) 100. 0 (38) 21.6 78.4 (1.4) (39.1) (23.0) (14.9) 100.0 (74) 26.9 73.1 (3.8) (30.8) (38.5) (0.0) 100. 0 (26) 6.1 93.9 (0.0) (60.5) (27.3) (6.1) 100. 0 (66) 16.2 83.8 (0.0) (21.6) (35.2) (27.0) 100. 0 (37) 12.7 87.3 (0.0) (56.4) (18.2) (12.7) 100. 0 (55) *The initial migration was to accompany parents who were moving away from Ontonagon. **Moved away to join husband at time of or after marriage (recorded for women only). 94 As more Ontonagon young women opt for college, scholastic performance as a selectivity factor in migration probably has similar consequences for females to those for males. its effect perhaps is most likely to be However, manifested Ontonagon females from upper class families. among As I contended earlier, social class origin is a rather important factor in migration differentials for Ontonagon females. Over the years, Ontonagon females from upper class families have been choosing education as a pathway out of the region more than their lower class Ontonagon economy. counterparts regardless of the changing For the 1957/58 females, that non-migrants tended to attain higher grades in school was because females from lower class families were less likely to leave Ontonagon even though they had good grades in school. Like social class origin, scholastic performance not only determines whether or not Ontonagon young people leaving, but also explains why they move away. will be For males and females alike, an overwhelming majority with better grades in high school schools, left home to go to college except for the 1957/58 females. or to technical Among high school seniors who had better grades, despite the fact that girls had an academic advantage, more boys than girls went on to attend college elsewhere although this gender difference had been narrowing in recent years. On the other hand, for high school seniors who had lower grades, more girls than boys had left to get an education. 95 For the 1957/58 cohort, boys with better grades were about twice more likely than girls to leave to get a college education. For the 1974 cohort, however, the proportion of girls with better grades leaving for college was nearly equal to the proportion of boys. Decreasing interest in pursuing higher education among the 1974 males in part accounts for the declining gender gap. Without doubt, the fact that more Ontonagon young women in later years were seeking a college education is still a main factor contributing to this decline. Among Ontonagon young men who had lower grades in high school, extremely few had educational goals in mind when they left Ontonagon. More often than not they left Ontonagon to join the military or to find employment elsewhere. Of course, the 1968 males were an exception as we indicated elsewhere. More importantly, the likelihood of pursuing further education was far more unlikely for them than it was for their female counterparts. Unlike their female counterparts, these Ontonagon young men had realized the fact that non-educational career goals were career choices. their best alternatives In other words, scholastic performance (i.e. or appropriate for Ontonagon young men, grades) has been an effective sorting mechanism. Scholastic propensity performance remains very as a strong, predictor especially of migration for boys, throughout the years and regardless of changing labor market and economic conditions either regionally or downstate. Since 96 educational opportunities in a remote community such as Ontonagon are almost non-existent, Ontonagon young people have had no choice Ontonagon but community to leave. of those The draining youngsters away from have achieved who the scholastic distinction and academic success in the Ontonagon school system seems to be inevitable. Migration Histories, Scholastic Performance and Educational/ Work Attainments For Ontonagon young people, in particular young men, it was very unlikely for those who had better grades in school to return and become permanent members of the community once they left to pursue continual evident loss educational of (Table 4-8). situation and human opportunities capital from elsewhere. Ontonagon is A quite In spite of the changing labor market economic conditions in Ontonagon, over the years, less than a fifth of Ontonagon young men who had better grades in school eventually returned and stayed. earlier cohorts, But, for the returned migrants were more likely to come from upper class families. 97 Table 4-8. Migration Histories, by High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort Male 1957/58 Migration History 1968 1974 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Half Half Half Half Half Half Never Migrated 11. 3 0.0 Returned Once 35.5 16.1 Multiple Returned 14.5 3.2 Returned, Left Again 12.9 12.9 Never Returned 25.8 67.7 Total Percent 100.0 100.0 (62) (31) (N=) 3.8 3.7 16.7 5.1 18.5 24 .5 22.2 15.4 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.2 33.3 14 .8 12.8 34.0 46.3 44.4 66.7 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 (27) (53) (54) (39) Female 1957/58 Migration History 1968 1974 Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper Half Half Half Half Half Half 18.4 21.6 26.9 Never Migrated 3.8 Returned Once 13.2 17.6 0.0 Multiple Returned 7.9 4 .1 10.8 19.2 Returned, Left Again 10.5 Never Returned 50. 0 50.0 45.9 Total Percent 100. 0 100. 0 100.0 (38) (74) (26) (N=) 6.1 16.2 12.7 27. 0 15.2 25.5 0.0 0.0 1.8 18.2 5.4 3.6 60. 6 51.4 56.4 100. 0 100.0 100.0 (66) (55) (37) 98 Although the out-migration of human capital was significantly reduced at a time when the Ontonagon economy was expanding, still almost half of the 1968 males (44%) who had better grades in school left Ontonagon and never moved back to stay. Even though the Ontonagon economy was growing at that time, the bulk of newly created copper mining. jobs were associated with They were mainly "blue collar" types such as working in the smelter or heavy equipment operators. the impressive 1957/58 males, educational achievements the Ontonagon economy was attained Given by the just not able to absorb most of these highly trained professionals. For the 1957/58 males, those who had better grades in school were more than twice as likely as those who had lower grades to never return to Ontonagon. economy has made Since 1975, the deteriorating Ontonagon it almost impossible for younger college graduates such as the 1974 males to return because there are hardly any jobs available for them. After all, career opportunities in Ontonagon were and are extremely limited for Ontonagon young men who have achieved academic success and whose aspirations are oriented toward a secure and rewarding work career. On the other hand, Ontonagon young men who had lower grades in school, unlike those who had good grades, were not as oriented toward getting a college education. Without a college degree, they were more inclined to return to Ontonagon when opportunities became available in the region. Thus, 99 their status attainment track changing Ontonagon economy. is more closely tied to the In other words, returned migrants tend to have had lower scholastic achievement records in high school. This seems to contradict my previous observation that returned migrants from the earlier cohorts are more likely to have been from upper class families and that Ontonagon young men from upper class families tend to have attained better scholastic performance records. that Ontonagon overrepresented males in the from It should be noted, however, the lower two earlier scholastic cohorts achievement were ranks regardless of class origins. Unlike males, affect whether or scholastic performance does not seem to not Ontonagon young women stayed except in the case of the 1968 females returned and (Table 4-8) . However, interesting patterns emerge when social class origin is taken into consideration. Obviously, the differs from the other two cohorts (Table 4-9). 1968 cohort And perhaps it is more likely an exception than the rule. For the 1968 females, those who did not have good grades in school either never moved away from Ontonagon or migrated. On the other hand, those who did well in school either left Ontonagon and came back or left but did not return to stay. Further, there were than non-migrants. were more levels. proportionately less returned migrants Thus, for both classes, returned migrants likely to have attained higher The same holds true for migrants. scholastic grade 100 Table 4-9. Migration Histories, by High School Graduation Rank, Family SES and Gender/Cohort 1957/58 Male Low SES Migration History Never Migrated Return Migrant Migrant Now Total Percent (N=) Female High SES Low SES Lower Upper Lower Upper Half Half Half Half 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 47.6 5.6 55.0 38.5 35.7 94.4 45.0 61.5 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 100. 0 (42) (18) (20) (13) High SES Lower Upper LowerUpper Half Half Half Half 14.8 23.5 27.3 17.4 18 .5 21.6 27.3 21.7 66.7 54.9 45.4 60.8 100. 0 100.0100.0100.0 (27) (51) (11) (23) 1968 Male Low SES Migration History Never Migrated Return Migrant Migrant Now Total Percent (N=) Female High SES Low SES Lower Upper Lower Upper Half Half Half Half 3.0 7.7 5.0 0.0 30.3 0.0 35.0 35.7 66.7 92.3 60.0 64.3 100.0 100.0 100.0100.0 (33) (13) (20) (14) High SES Lower Upper LowerUpper Half Half Half Half 30.8 7.9 23.1 3.6 0.0 10.5 7.7 21.4 69.2 81.6 69.2 75.0 100.0 100.0100.0100.0 (13) (38) (13) (28) 1974 Male Low SES High SES Female Low SES High SES Migration History Lower Upper Lower Upper Lower Upper LowerUpper Half Half Half Half Half Half Half Half Never Migrated Return Migrant Migrant Now Total Percent (N=) 6.3 13 .6 18 .8 4.3 25. 0 18.8 18.2 13 .0 56.3 75.0 68.2 82 .6 100.0100.0100.0100.0 (32) (16) (22) (23) 11.1 .12.9 22.2 12.5 27.8 29.0 27.8 25.0 61.1 58 .1 50.0 62.5 100.0 100.0100.0100.0 (18) (31) (18) (24) 101 For the 1957/58 manifested a and 1974 differential females, social class origin conditioning effect on the relationship between scholastic performance and the decision to migrate or to return and stay. families, returned migrants were more grades in school, likely to have lower which is quite the opposite from that of lower class families. better For those from upper class scholastic The grades latter returnees tended to have in high school. Of course, the differences are rather moderate for the 1957/58 females and almost negligible for the 1974 females. Among female migrants from upper class families who never returned, better however, students somewhat larger a when larger they proportion proportion were of in high students were academically school from whereas lower a class families who moved away and never returned were scholastically inferior. And the differences have remained relatively intact. The consistent and persistent out-migration among Ontonagon young women who attained academic success singles out the dilemma of this remote rural labor market where highly educated young people find few opportunities for a rewarding and gainful career. Nor have there been ample employment opportunities for females who had not done especially well in high school. Thus, the status attainment track of Ontonagon young women is not closely linked to its changing economy. Despite the chronic loss of human capital from Ontonagon, 102 there are nevertheless some hopeful signs for the community. Although Ontonagon young women are not likely to return to Ontonagon once they leave, those who do return are more likely to be either from upper class rather than from lower class families school or from the graduation generalization upper cohort applies scholastic than from similarly moved away from Ontonagon. rank of the lower. to young women Overall, their who high This never a larger proportion of Ontonagon young women than men who attained higher academic success in high school have become permanent members of the Ontonagon community. than males to have But, as expected, they are less likely attained a college degree, with the exception of the 1974 females (the difference is negligible) (Table 4-10). The gender attainments further differences educational (the latter particularly) highlight performance in has had the for distinct Ontonagon and work for returned migrants impacts males that and scholastic females with respect to patterns of out-migration and return migration. 103 Table 4-10. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Completing College, by Place of Residence, High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort Percent Completing College Male 1957/58 Place of Residence Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now Lower Upper Half Half 1968 1974 Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half 5.3 0.0 6.5 33.3 0.0 33 .3 10. 5 0.0 11.8 50. 0 0.0 60. 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 16.7 16.7 80.0 14.7 52.4 3 .0 48.4 Female 1957/58 Place of Residence Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now Lower Upper Half Half 1968 1974 Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 0.0 30.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.6 0.0 20.0 4 .3 40.5 5.6 38.5 0.0 51.5 104 In spite of the considerably higher college attainment levels of returned migrants who achieved better grades in school, for returned male migrants and to a much less degree for returned female migrants, the difference in work attainments between scholastic grade levels is much narrower (Table 4-11). Returned migrants in general have rather good career success at home. For males, it is particularly so for returned migrants whose scholastic performance were at the lower rank. For females, good in grades school usually returned migrants who had attained career success more than others. For males, first of all, we must take into account that their scholastic performance record generally was inferior to that of females. Those at the lower half of the scholastic achievement rank were also more likely to return to Ontonagon. Among them, for the earlier cohorts, those from upper class families tended to take advantage of their class background at home to return to Ontonagon more so than their lower class counterparts (refer back to Table 4-9) . On the other hand, among males who had attained better grades, it was those from upper class families who were most inclined to return to Ontonagon; Ontonagon males from lower class families who did well in high school seldom returned home and stayed. 105 Table 4-11. Percent of Ontonagon High School Seniors Attaining A Professional Career*, by Place of Residence, High School Graduation Rank and Gender/Cohort Percent Attaining A Professional Career Male 1957/58 Place of Residence Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 1968 1974 Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half 23 .5 14 .3 25.9 33.3 0.0 33.3 29.4 0.0 33.3 50. 0 0.0 60.0 17.6 12.5 22.2 14.3 0.0 20.0 34.8 79.2 29.0 60. 0 17.9 51.7 Female 1957/58 Place of Residence Ontonagon Area Never Migrated Return Migrant Elsewhere Migrant Now 1968 1974 Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half Lower Half Upper Half 12.5 0.0 20.0 33.3 25.0 42.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 20.0 8.3 20.0 0.0 30.8 0.0 36.4 30.8 52.2 10. 0 40.0 0.0 36.0 *It includes self-employed persons. 106 However, the economic downturn in Ontonagon seems to have changed the pattern, as reflected in the returning behavior of the 1974 migrants. Whether or not they had attained superior grades in school, fewer 1974 men from upper class families returned. Unlike the earlier cohorts, among returned migrants who had attained good grades in high school, we observe that the 1974 returnees tended to be from lower class families. Even so, the 1974 returned migrants who had done poorly in school did fairly well careerwise in comparison with either their higher scholastically ranked counterparts or migrants who had attained lower grades. That returned male migrants who had lower grades in high school appear attainments migrants grades have is due from in college to class school, elsewhere, fairly in part to the upper high done actually had who left did in work career fact that many returned families and well not had attained Ontonagon finish good to attend college before returning to Ontonagon to stay4. The 1968 returned migrants from upper class families were rather unique. returned to Rather than dropping out of college, Ontonagon with a college degree teachers or owners/managers of local businesses. class returned success of Consequently, migrants the for total contributed group Ontonagon of males to the 1968 with and most became These upper overall career returned migrants. better scholastic performance records, the 1968 returned migrants are the only 107 cohort that had work status attainments as successful as their migrant counterparts. On the other hand, for Ontonagon males who attained lower grades in school, returned migrants of the younger cohorts tended to have attained somewhat better jobs than those who migrated away. attainments advantage probably (perhaps Their higher reflects some sort because their parents level of work of social owned class businesses, e t c .) For scholastic females, among performance those in high who had school, attained returned better migrants achieved a lower level of college attainment than migrants who never returned (Table 4-10). However, the work attainments of these returned migrants were rather impressive in comparison with that of migrants (Table 4-11) . It may be due to the fact that returned female migrants tended to have done very well academically in high school and/or tended to come from upper class families as we mentioned earlier. But as more young women opted for college, more eventually returned to Ontonagon with a college education. Because these young women were most likely to get a degree in liberal arts or in education, they assumed the greater risk of being underemployed. Among those college educated returned female migrants who opted to work, women of the younger cohorts were more likely to have jobs at the assembly line, restaurant floor. in the grocery store or even on a 108 Overview Similar to what occurs throughout rural America, in many small, most young people remote towns from Ontonagon pursued career opportunities by moving away from their home communities. Very often, for males especially, scholastic performance in high school determines the pathway out although social class origin is becoming increasingly relevant for the younger cohorts. For females, social class origin apparently is a more significant factor than is scholastic performance. As a result, a persistent loss of social capital to downstate jobs and communities is observed. Because the young migrants were highly motivated, well prepared by the Ontonagon school system (very few high school drop outs), and consequently highly trained and educated, in all in likelihood they encountered no unusual difficulties becoming productive, innovative workers and active, responsible citizens of downstate industries and communities. By no means could the Ontonagon community have absorbed very many of them. The large stream of out-migration from Ontonagon over the years reflected in effect a sort-of-safety valve. Ontonagon no doubt would have become an economic depressed area if it was not for the fact that young people had someplace else to go to establish a work career. the exporting of social capital Thus, from Ontonagon was perhaps beneficial to those who stayed behind and those who chose to return. 109 However, the ability of the Ontonagon community to attract significant numbers of young men and women to return to stay is very doubtful while its local and regional economy is in a state of chronic stress. Although some career opportunities are available to returned migrants from upper class families counterparts, and to a lesser degree their lower class "depopulation" is bound to influence the life chances of Ontonagon young men and women who chose to stay. But those young men and women who chose to make their home in Ontonagon must unemployment in reckon the with region and the problems periodic of economic Downward mobility is an ever-present possibility. chronic crises. 110 1. The terms "grades" and "scholastic performance" will be used interchangeably to refer to "graduation rank in high school", as determined by overall grade point average. 2. As I mentioned earlier in Chapter 3, for the 1968 cohort, their migration experiences and career patterns reflected the underlying social milieu at that time when the Viet Nam War was escalating and various social movements were underway. Their much higher proportion of attending school elsewhere for both classes was an exception rather the rule. 3. For the 1957/58 males, none of the non-migrants were reared in upper class families. Nor did they attain higher grades in school. Although migration differentials had narrowed significantly between classes and grade levels over the years, still for the 1974 males, more non-migrants from lower class families had lower grades than that of upper class families (85.7% vs. 75%). 4. For Ontonagon men from upper class families, of those who attained good grades in school, the majority of them left to go to college but returned home without a college degree except the 1968 males. They achieved much lower work status attainment than their lower grade counterparts (2 0% vs. 45.5% for the 1957/58; 57.1% vs. 60% for the 1968 and 0% vs. 66.7% for the 1974) . Chapter 5. This changing Summary and Conclusions research was local designed to explore the impacts of labor market circumstances on the migration patterns of Ontonagon County young people. I was especially concerned with the long-term effects of out-migration on the stability and community. pathways socioeconomic development of the Ontonagon Migration is an integral component of the complex into adulthood of Ontonagon young people and essential element of their career attainment process. an From my examination of the information available, I conclude that the return migration of Ontonagon young people, in particular young men, is strongly influenced by the changing local labor market circumstances in this remote, rural region. I was able to use a unique longitudinal data-set relative to three cohorts 1957/58, 1968, followed up migration people. initial were: seek and over and of Ontonagon 1974 a graduating period career of 29 attainment Four "structural out-migration high school classes) seniors that years. I patterns of (the had been compared these the young imperatives" that had led to the from Ontonagon were examined. They to join the military; to pursue further education; to or take migration was a job elsewhere; taken migration experiences. into or to get married. account to ascertain Return types Two aspects of Ontonagon's of "social capital" were considered: social class origin, and scholastic 111 112 performance level in high school. manner by which these two My concern was with the variables are associated with migration imperatives, migration histories and the resulting career attainments. migration Thus, streams, the the character selectivity of of Ontonagon migration, the attributes of those who remained behind or who returned, and the long-range consequences on the community were assessed. Ontonagon Migration: An Overview Ontonagon migration, migration stream unchanged over of the which rural years. youth, There is has essentially remained appears to an strikingly have consistent and persistent outflow of young people region. A majority of Ontonagon young people, out­ been a from the like rural youth elsewhere, have continued to move away from their home community 1991). (Seyfrit 1986; Garkovich 1989; Voss and Fuguitt The restructuring of the national or regional economy, the turnaround migration or the changing local labor market in Ontonagon exerted no significant effects on whether or not they decided to leave Ontonagon. Few percent). Ontonagon Rather, young people never a large proportion migrated (about half) never moved back to the Ontonagon community. (twelve left and Some moved away but later returned to resume permanent residency in Ontonagon (about a quarter). fifteen percent). Others returned but left again (roughly 113 In earlier Ontonagon years it (the 1957/58 appeared females) that young women from were much less likely than young men to join the Ontonagon out-migration stream. But there were no such comparable differences between genders in 1974; work and career opportunities for women opened up and more young women opted for a college education. Overall, there were strong "push" factors associated with the Ontonagon socioeconomic context that had historically prompted its young people to leave, opportunities, such as restricted and often unstable job almost no opportunities locally for advanced education, and the remoteness and isolation of the community. Indeed, migration is a normal event and an expected pattern of behavior in the life of Ontonagon young people. The main characteristic of Ontonagon migration has been the importance of educational selectivity. Perhaps Ontonagon migrants are mainly "aspiring migrants" (Taylor 1969) who are looking for better career opportunities elsewhere. is an integral part attainment process. of their strategies for Migration the status Scholastic performance in high school, which represents an achieved status, was a crucial determinant of the migration propensity of Ontonagon young men. Social class, on the other hand, had greater influence in specifying the effects of school grades Ontonagon young women. on propensity to migrate Normatively speaking, for females often enhance their status through marriage. In 1957, the school grades effect accounted for the 114 propensity to migrate among Ontonagon males (All of them were from lower class families too; see table 4-9, page 100). Although the grades effect was markedly reduced in 1974, strong positive relationship persisted. however, was greatly diminished. a The class effect, In 1974 a positive effect of grades was noted and it was slightly stronger for males from upper class families. The 1968 females manifested a similar grades effect, but it was obviously not so for other female cohorts. With the exception of the 1968 females, the social class factor was important as a condition affecting the relationship between females. grades and migration propensity in the case of For the 1957/58 and the 1974 females, a positive grades effect appeared only among those who were from upper class families. A negative grades effect, however, was observed for Ontonagon females who stemmed from lower class families; the effect for the 1974 females was trivial but in the same direction. In other words, the migration selectivity of Ontonagon young women drew disproportionately from those who are at both extremes of social class standing and grades levels. Most of all, the migration selectivity of Ontonagon young women did not appear to coincide with the shifting of the Ontonagon economy. The migration quite the opposite. selectivity of Ontonagon young men was It undoubtedly echoed the dramatic boom and bust fortunes of the local economy, which is so heavily 115 dependent upon extractive industries. young men and women from Ontonagon, factor in the selectivity Although, for both social class was a main of return migration, a positive class effect on the likelihood of returning and staying was reversed for the 197 4 male migrants. conditional factor returnees. As a specifying result, Time in this case was a the the attributes migration of male selectivity Ontonagon young men evidently reflected the changing of local labor market in Ontonagon. The availability of employment opportunities in Ontonagon appears to be a key consideration for Ontonagon young men who decide to return. "structural migration For young imperatives" from Ontonagon women from that motivate were and still Ontonagon, the initial are the out­ important in determining whether or not they return to Ontonagon to stay. But economic considerations seem to have gained some degree of importance as a factor influencing their migration behavior. Not only were the 1974 female migrants more likely than earlier female migrants to return and stay, proportionately their return and stay was also greater than the 1974 male migrants. The moderate increase in volume of return migration suggests that the expansion of the service sector in this region significantly improved the employment opportunities of Ontonagon young women. However, many of those jobs in the service sector are paid with low wages. In addition to migration selectivity, young men and women 116 from Ontonagon also differ in the migration imperatives that lead to an eventual moving away from Ontonagon. expect, in addition to seeking work elsewhere, military is still As one would joining the a predominantly male career path out of Ontonagon for young men whereas marriage is a very common path out for young women. Education, of course, has been and is an increasingly important career building strategy. But, it has always been more pivotal for young women than for young men. Furthermore, these differences manifest little association with the changing local labor market conditions in Ontonagon. Rather, "pull" factors elsewhere— the Viet Nam war, social movements, largely account, Ontonagon changing social norms various and expectations— - it appears, for most of the variations. young people who were from upper class families or who attained a record of scholastic excellence in high school were more likely to choose education as a pathway out of Ontonagon. On the other hand, Ontonagon young people who stemmed from lower class families or had lower grades in high school usually left to enter the military, to seek employment or to accompany their husbands to their places of residence (i.e. pursue non-educational goals). Social class origin and scholastic performance, however, differ in the ways they affect Ontonagon migration and the resulting status attainment process. Over the years, the likelihood of attending college elsewhere remained remarkably the same for Ontonagon young women from upper class families; 117 about half went to college. Increasingly, more Ontonagon young women from lower class families also chose to pursue further education when they first moved away. women, the class effect declined in importance relative to education as a career path out of Ontonagon. Ontonagon young men, Thus, for young However, among the disparity between classes widened. Ontonagon young men from lower class families, upper class counterparts, were increasingly unlike their less likely to leave for a college education. Despite these class differentials, social class origin manifests little influence on the likelihood of obtaining a college degree among those who leave for further education. But the likelihood of their completing a college education declined significantly since 1957. Three-fourths of the 1957/58 male migrants who left for college elsewhere finished college, whereas only half of their 1974 For Ontonagon young women, change over counterparts did. there seems to have been little time— roughly half of those who chose the educational path to leave Ontonagon completed college. Scholastic performance is a very effective sorting-out mechanism for young men from Ontonagon. It differentiates whether or not Ontonagon young men choose to seek advanced education when they likelihood Ontonagon of first leave, returning young men who to did but also determines their and staying not have good in Ontonagon. grades in high school were highly unlikely to consider going on to college 118 when they first elsewhere. Most educational Ontonagon left Ontonagon likely goals. they These in search moved young in great numbers when became available. of away men opportunities to tended pursue to non- return job opportunities to at home But, they also were quick to takeoff again when local economic conditions became bad. On the other hand, an overwhelming majority of Ontonagon young men who had better grades in high school left to pursue a college education and indeed a great many of them did finish college. Consequently, Ontonagon. they tended never to return to Among those males who had better grades in high school, two-thirds of the 1957/58 and 1974 cohorts and almost half of the 1968 cohort never returned to Ontonagon to stay once they left. This loss of "social capital" through migration appears to be a significant characteristic of the Ontonagon community. For Ontonagon young women, scholastic performance, like social class origin, affects their decisions about whether or not to leave and go on to college. between But, scholastic performance/social migration histories of Ontonagon the relationships class young origin women and the suggest no striking association between the changing local labor market and economic whether or conditions not to return in Ontonagon to Ontonagon and and their stay. decisions Female migrants who returned and stayed tended to come from upper class families. In the case of the 1968 returnees, they were 119 also more likely to have better grades in high school. differences, These however, were negligible for the 1974 returned female migrants. For Ontonagon young men, the dramatic shifts in the characteristics of returned migrants between the earlier and the 1974 changing local Ontonagon upturn, more cohorts have labor on manifest market return and the effects economic migration. likely to return to stay During than that conditions Ontonagon young men from upper class counterparts vs. clearly their the the in economic families were lower class (47.1 vs. 34.9 percent for the 1957/58 and 31.6 20.8 percent for the 1968). When the Ontonagon economy became difficult and continued so, however, male migrants from upper class families were less inclined to return to stay than their lower class counterparts (15.6 v s . 22.9 percent for the 1974) . Deteriorating local labor market circumstances and economic conditions appear to prompt recent Ontonagon high school male graduates, return at all, who have not yet returned, not to especially those from upper class families. The weakened local economy also influences the permanency of the return returned. to Ontonagon for young Among returned migrants, men who had already those who first left to pursue non-educational goals tended to migrate again, when the Ontonagon economy turned sour. On the other hand, Ontonagon young men, who moved away to get a college education and had 120 already returned, were less likely to leave again even during the economic hard times. When both social class origin and scholastic performance are taken into account, the migration experiences of the 1974 males reveal an alarming phenomenon, which may have enormous negative impacts on Ontonagon community. the long-range development of the Although the loss of "social capital” was evident for the earlier cohorts, it has further worsened since 1974. Eighty-two percent of the 1974 males who came from upper class families and had good grades in high school never returned. The non-returnee ratio was higher .than those of the earlier cohorts. But, it is very doubtful that the gloomy Ontonagon economy can be successfully revitalized in the near future. The continual out-migration of "social capital" from this remote community seems to be inevitable. Nevertheless, Ontonagon, continuing there even are economic during some the economic encouraging difficulty in hard signs. Ontonagon, times in Despite the there were noteworthy increases in return migration for the 1974 females. Also noticeable was a steady increase among female migrants who choose to reside in Michigan's Upper Peninsula. As more Ontonagon young women opt for a college education, like their male cohorts, a majority of them attend universities in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. to the region are strengthened through colleges or Their ties schooling. The expansion of the service sector in the region may also make it 121 possible for these young women to find work nearby so that many of them can stay in the U. P. , if they so choose. Still, Ontonagon young women who first left to pursue a college education are least likely to return. Over three- fifths of those who were from upper class families and who did well in high school did not move back to Ontonagon. the loss of "social capital" seem to worsen, when the is again obvious, local economy becomes Although it does not stressful, which is a blessing for this remote community. When upturn, Ontonagon and the region it means more than jobs. vitality, opportunities, community. The experience It brings stability, "draining" of young and an in new blood, prosperity people economic to the from Ontonagon appears to be lessening; the underemployment and unemployment problem for Ontonagon young people is less severe than it once was. Migrants from upper class families are eager to return and seize the opportunities at home, in particular those who had lower grades in high school. So too do migrants who came from lower class families and had a lower academic standing. Among the returnees, there are those who had good grades in high school and came from upper class families, finish college. to their failure but did not Their return to Ontonagon may be attributed to adjust to migration experiences— the rigorousness of college life. Generally speaking, members of the local returned migrants strive to become business community (Cook, 1987). 122 Certainly, those Ontonagon had who came many from upper advantages over class the families others in and, consequently, they were more likely to achieve career success. But Ontonagon young people who earned better grades in high school but did not come from upper returned to Ontonagon to stay. rewarding, class families rarely Very often they aspired to a professional career, which they were unlikely to attain in a rural community such as Ontonagon. Once they had made it elsewhere on their own, usually thanks to a college education, their exodus was permanent. Perhaps the periodic growth and expansion of the local economy will continue to attract Ontonagon migrants to return and to sustain the community for along time. the Ontonagon economy will ever But if or when again experience another episode cycle of rapid expansion remains uncertain. From my examination of Ontonagon migration, one thing is crystal clear: the redistribution of "social capital" works to the advantage of metropolitan downstate. General Conclusions In spite of the limitations associated with study approach upon which this research is based, migration not only represents essential the case Ontonagon characteristics of youth migration, but also exemplifies fundamental attributes of migration in general. Without doubt, the less diversified rural labor market 123 and the tendency of colleges and universities to be located at or close to places of population centers prompt many rural youth to leave his/her home community. But, the persistent out-migration of rural young people regardless of the social and economic transformation in contemporary rural America also reflects the typical age profile of migrants whose migration propensity peaks misconception differences between age 20 and 30. about in youth migration out-migration Perhaps, is to patterns the key assume too much between rural and metropolitan young people. Like rural youth, young people from metropolitan areas are highly mobile geographically. But their mobility tends to be viewed as residential mobility, adjusting to the changing events of life course (Long 1988, p. 220). On the other hand, research on migration of rural youth pays enormous attention to factors associated with areas of origin and destination that cause rural young people to move. effort has been made to Little investigate the systematic geographical ramifications of various career choices that rural youth make during their formative years of career attainment. The four basic migration service used and analytical in structural this imperatives of initial out­ study— education, marriage— illustrate strategy to an differentiate work, useful and various military fruitful types of migratory moves, including return migration and its respective career outcomes. In this particular case, they suggest young 124 people's destinations for the initial move, their subsequent and current residence, and the degree of closeness in terms of their employment and social ties to the areas or regions where they come from. More importantly, these four structural imperatives where marriage is built in the coding scheme may be simultaneously examined. Gender differences and similarities in migration behavior and career trajectories can be better understood. Education Ontonagon as young permanently a career people parallels to the path move which away positive tends from to induce the community relationship generally found between education and migration propensity. Education continues to be an effective factor in migration selectivity for young people. If its importance in migration selectivity declines somewhat over time, as it is suggested by those who view diminishing "investment1111 return of education (Long 1973; Long 1988), it is very unlikely to occur among young people from rural areas. metropolitan areas Nor does it happen to young people from when the locale where a young person pursues his/her college education— locally or elsewhere— is taken into account (Dahmann 1982). Going off to college elsewhere in general indicates the first step toward searching and building one's own local ties to a new area. Whether or not to get a free college education is the main motivation for those who enter the military service is an empirical question. In the case of Ontonagon young people, 125 joining the military was much more of a career option available to those whose academic performance in high school was below the average and those who decided to seek no more education. Education Extremely few had attained a bachelor's degree. is an Ontonagon. important fabric of social But, it is for certain that institutions in young people who choose a military path are much more prone than those who left to attend college elsewhere not only to move away, but also to leave the regions discharge. Their where they are from even after their local ties to the communities where they come from weaken after years of being away for most of their career formative period. On the other hand, young people who enter the labor force right after high school graduation tend to have their employment histories closely tied to the local labor market. Their ties to the areas or regions where they come from are further reinforced. For rural young people, it means that they are willing to return if opportunities arises. By the same token, they are forced to move further distances to seek employment if the local or regional economy is in distress. For instance, the 1974 males who left Ontonagon to find work elsewhere were much more likely than other males to move away from the Great Lakes region. tough economic through. times that They had experienced the very Ontonagon and Michigan had been Unlike young people who pursue further education, the migration pattern of those who seek work elsewhere after 126 high school graduation has a greater tendency to shift in accordance with the changing local or regional labor market conditions. However, these observations do not seem to apply to young women whose migration patterns apparently do not coincide well with the changing local economy. 1974 females are the only But, that is changing. female cohort whose The migration pattern reflects changes associated with a transformation of the rural local labor market where a service-oriented economy provides more employment opportunities for young rural women. We expect that the modest increase in volume of returned female migrants, that first appeared in the case of the 1974 females, persists. Nowadays, women have more say on where couples want to move to because their active participation in the work force continues to rise. More importantly, wages earned by wives have become essential to young couples during a time when the market position of young men has deteriorated because of the disappearance Ontonagon of young high-paying people, manufacturing incomes from wives jobs. are For especially important for young couples who wish to stay in this remote region where economic uncertainty is a way of life. Nevertheless, females retains migration certain selectivity characteristics among which extractive nature of the Ontonagon economy. opportunities for young women are improving, Ontonagon reflect the The employment but they are 127 still very limited and tend to be in low wages categories. Education has been a primary pathway out for Ontonagon young women, who are from upper class families and who have good records of academic performance in school. But, a higher migration propensity also appears for Ontonagon young women, who are from the opposite end of the local hierarchy and scholastic achievement level. social class There is nothing for these young women to lose if they choose to leave. In fact, they may even have better chances to marry up if they seek employment effect elsewhere. on migration Although propensity for the negative Ontonagon grades females from lower class families had dropped significantly for the 1974 females, the direction of the relationship remained unaltered. Marriage has always been an important explanations of migration of young women. element in But to what extent marriage affects the overall migration patterns of young women is not clear. Young women who do not do well in high school are more likely to consider marriage as a career option after high school graduation. Yet, in the case of the 1968 females, none lower of them Ontonagon to who had grades join her husband's got residency married and left elsewhere. The unusual high career expectations of the 1968 females during their senior year prompted them to leave Ontonagon to pursue further education. option then. Marriage was not an agreeable career It might even have been viewed as an obstacle to their career attainment. Thus, the migration selectivity of 128 the 1968 females cohorts. holds was quite different from other female A positive grades effect on migration propensity for the 1968 females from lower class families when social class origin is taken into account. If marriage continues to be a viable and desirable career option for rural young women to seek a better life, believe it will be, then gender selectivity are here to stay. differences and we in migration In other words, ascribed status such as social class origin appears to be more important in differentiating migration propensity of young women whereas achieved status such as scholastic performance in school is a somewhat more evidence has studies of important also the been factor found process of for young between status men. genders attainment in Similar previous (Grusky and DiPrete 1990). The major shortcoming in research on migration selectivity has been its inability to explain why selectivity occurs in migration and under what conditions? assessments of migration selectivity are The typical quite obvious: "Migration selectivity does not decrease indefinitely and on a national countries level in may fluctuate accordance with in the different cohorts." (Long 1988, p.46) is explained. this study understand economically unique developed experiences in But beyond that, little The four "structural imperatives" proposed in intend to provide migration analytical behavior. They windows also give to better us some 129 grounded insights into the selective process of migration and the resulting area/the population region (i.e. exchange between Michigan's the Upper Ontonagon Peninsula) and elsewhere. Migration from and to a place over time inevitably changes the place, the people, and the community. However, it is never an easy task to spell out with reasonable confidence what has changed population in in the that socioeconomic place. composition Attempts to of assess the the socioeconomic consequences of rural-urban migration on rural areas in the contemporary era have been especially problematic. For the contrary most part, assessments there with are conflicting regard to the views and nature of disadvantages associated with rural labor markets. Are these disadvantages indigenous (i.e. inherent in the socioeconomic organization of the locality) or temporary (i.e. a consequent structural national response or or regional adaptation economy)? to sudden Do they shifts mainly in the reflect inadequacies in the educational system and the inflexibility of the local labor force, as suggested by proponents of the "convergency model" (Wardwell 1980; Wilson 1988)? Or are they one more manifestation of uneven development between the core and the 1981; periphery Massey 1982; in an advanced Bradley 1985)? capitalist Is society (Urry it a fact that the majority of local rural workers is relatively disadvantaged in 130 competition with newcomers for entering jobs? Without doubt, the loss of "social capital" through migration for the Ontonagon community is evident. appears clear that in the Ontonagon case, it young people who never migrated seemed to be able to hold stable, employment But, and to do so quite successfully. permanent Life in this remote rural community appears to have been quite fulfilling as well for young people who moved back to Ontonagon. majority of returnees are not "adjustment failures". they disadvantaged newcomers) relative to primary in attaining good local capital— an attitude, which is so Nor were migrants jobs. A (i.e. Perhaps cultural deeply rooted in the household livelihood strategies of life in this cold, rugged north country, is an appreciable driving relative career success of both migrants force for the and non-migrants. Ontonagon young people are highly motivated and well educated. Certainly, Ontonagon young people who move away enhance their life chances, and thus moving away often leads to what appears to be, more in terms of middle-class American values, rewarding proportion region of after and male satisfying migrants completing life. from college But Ontonagon careers a a considerable stayed (about a in the quarter except the 1968 males, roughly forty percent if Ontonagon area is included). Their regional ties had been fortified through schooling during the critical period of those career formative years. The loss of "social capital" from the region is not as 131 severe as one might have assumed it to be. For Ontonagon young women in later cohorts who chose to stay in the region, the likelihood of their being at the bottom of the occupational strata was at least three times greater than that of migrants who resided elsewhere. Is this a form of marginalization, a sign of discrimination associated with the nature of extractive industries, or simply a household strategy employed by families of young couples who wish to stay in this north country opportunities are very restricted? where employment More research is needed to elaborate these and similar intriguing questions that derive from the Ontonagon Project. Future Research Education has become a primary career path that leads to moving away from one's community of origin. A college experience is most likely used as a way out by rural young people who have had a disadvantaged social background but who attained considerable success in high school. Can this observation be generalized to urban youth where more feasible and immediate career options are available locally? Does it apply to racially disadvantaged groups in our inner cities? Is a military path a feasible alternative for getting free education and some useful technical training for minorities or socially disadvantaged urban youth? racial What are the career strategies employed by young women who are from a 132 disadvantaged social background and who are not interested in further schooling and have no likelihood of getting married? Educational success is expected of rural young people, men in particular, from upper class families. But many are not able to complete a college education before returning home and, consequently, tend to be "adjustment failures", particularly those with academic success in high school. As a result, they are less likely than other returnees to attain career success in the home communities. Who are more likely to be "adjustment failures" among rural young women? failed marriage an indication of adjustment difficulties? 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