To restore forests and protect remaining natural forests, in 1998 the Chinese government initiated two nationwide conservation policies, the Natural Forest Conservation Program (NFCP) and the Grain-To-Green Program (GTGP). This study evaluated the effects of conservation policies and other potential driving forces on forest-cover change in 108 townships located in the Qinling Mountains and Sichuan Giant Panda Sanctuary (both known giant panda habitat regions) between 2001 and 2008. Forest-cover change was evaluated using land-cover products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Most townships in both regions showed either stable or increased forest cover. An Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression model was applied to identify potential driving forces of this forest-cover change. The model suggests that conservation policies had significantly positive effects on forest cover, while population density, percentage of agricultural population, road density, and initial forest cover (i.e., in 2001) had significantly negative effects. This study helps to clarify not only the patterns of forest-cover change after conservation policy implementation, but also to identify the impacts of potential driving forces of forest-cover change, at township level. This information could be, in turn, useful in the development of future giant panda habitat restoration projects.
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