EVALUATION OF ANAEROBIC BIODEGRADABILITY OF ZOOLOGICAL ORGANIC WASTE TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABLE WASTE MANAGEMENT AT ZOOS By Gina Marie Masell Haylett A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Biosystems Engineering – Master of Science 2018 ABSTRACT EVALUATION OF ANAEROBIC BIODEGRADABILITY OF ZOOLOGICAL ORGANIC WASTE TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABLE WASTE MANAGEMENT AT ZOOS By Gina Marie Masell Haylett Zoos across the country are pushing for sustainable solutions to mitigate their highenergy consumption and provide organic waste management. Anaerobic digestion provides an alternative to traditional waste management solutions such as landfilling, incineration, and composting. The Detroit Zoological Society (DZS) was selected as the zoo for this study. This study analyzed seven waste samples and mixtures from the DZS. A biochemical methane potential (BMP) test was performed on these wastes and their mixtures to determine the energy content. The results show that all samples are anaerobically biodegradable with samples yielding 501, 622, 269, 117, 232, 653, and 302 L biogas per kg initial VS for carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, bird mix, zoo mix, food waste, and ZMF, respectively. The energy balance and carbon footprint analyses on BMP data further conclude that anaerobic digestion can efficiently handle zoo wastes, generate renewable energy to compensate 1.4% of the zoo’s energy demand for their animal operations, as well as reduce carbon dioxide emission by 16%. In addition, the zoo mix and ZMF samples were tested in small-scale pilot digesters. Results show that the zoo mix sample yielded the highest cumulative gas production while the ZMF sample indicated inhibition due to low operating pH. The zoo mix and ZMF samples were fit to the Modified Gompertz Equation model to determine performance parameters for scale-up considerations. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank, wholeheartedly, my advisors, Dr. Dana Kirk and Dr. Wei Liao, for their guidance and assistance throughout both my undergraduate and graduate experiences. It is largely due to their support that I have been able to complete this project and develop a passion for bioenergy. I extend a special thank you to Dr. Kirk, to whom I am thankful for the tremendous experience working at the Anaerobic Digestion Research and Education Center (ADREC), and the mentorship he has shown me in my professional development, for which I would not be the person I am today without. Thank you for always challenging me and giving me that extra push when it was needed. I would also like to acknowledge Ilsoon Lee for his support as a member on my committee. I would like to thank the many laboratory technicians of the ADREC for their copious help, effort, and enthusiasm on this project. Without their dedication and passion for the work, this work may not have been completed. I am also grateful to fellow graduate students, Juan Pablo Rojas and Sebastian Hernandez, for their knowledge, guidance, and kindness throughout my time in the graduate program. I am also thankful to the Detroit Zoological Society for supporting this project and providing unique and fun research questions. Their passion for sustainability, conservation, and education is truly inspiring, and I hope to promote this sort of enthusiasm in my future endeavors. Finally, I would like to thank the Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering Department for the truly wonderful 6 years of learning, experience, and personal and professional development. It truly has been an honor to be a part of such a great engineering program and graduate with both Bachelor’s and Master’s degrees from Michigan State University. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ viii KEY TO SYMBOLS ................................................................................................................ ix 1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................................1 1.1 Problem statement..............................................................................................................1 1.2 Goal and objectives ............................................................................................................3 2. LITERATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................5 2.1 Anaerobic digestion ...........................................................................................................5 2.1.1 Factors influencing anaerobic digestion .......................................................................5 2.1.2 Evaluation of substrates for anaerobic digestion ..........................................................7 2.1.3 Anaerobic digestion outputs ........................................................................................9 2.1.4 Environmental impact of anaerobic digestion ............................................................ 10 2.1.5 Locations and types of anaerobic digesters ................................................................ 11 2.1.6 Models for anaerobic digestion .................................................................................. 13 2.2 Anaerobic digestion for zoos ............................................................................................ 14 2.2.1 Organic waste management at zoos ........................................................................... 14 2.2.2 Zoo animal waste characterization ............................................................................. 15 2.2.3 Zoo energy consumption ........................................................................................... 15 2.3 Anaerobic digester safety ................................................................................................. 16 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS ........................................................................................... 18 3.1 Organic waste collection and handling ............................................................................. 18 3.1.1 Zoo organic waste ..................................................................................................... 18 3.1.2 Food waste ................................................................................................................ 18 3.1.3 Filtrate....................................................................................................................... 18 3.2 Waste quantification ........................................................................................................ 19 3.3 Preparation of sample mixtures ........................................................................................ 20 3.4 Waste characterization ..................................................................................................... 23 3.5 Biochemical methane potential Test (BMP) ..................................................................... 23 3.5.1 Set-up........................................................................................................................ 23 3.5.2 Operation and Monitoring ......................................................................................... 24 3.5.3 BMP Calculations ..................................................................................................... 25 3.6 Mass and Energy Balance ................................................................................................ 27 3.7 Carbon Footprint .............................................................................................................. 29 3.8 Pilot systems design and operation and analysis ............................................................... 32 3.8.1 Pilot monitoring ........................................................................................................ 36 3.8.2 Feeding ..................................................................................................................... 36 3.8.3 Leachate collection .................................................................................................... 37 3.8.4 Gas ............................................................................................................................ 37 3.8.5 Digestate ................................................................................................................... 38 iv 3.8.6 Model Fitting ............................................................................................................ 38 4. CHARACTERIZATION AND BIOCHEMICAL METHANE POTENTIAL ........................ 41 4.1 Characteristics of animal wastes ....................................................................................... 41 4.2 BMP Test......................................................................................................................... 45 4.2.1 Pre and post-digestion characterization ...................................................................... 45 4.3 Theoretical Mass and Energy Balance and Carbon Footprint ............................................ 51 5. PILOT TESTING AND FITTING A MODEL TO DATA FOR DETERMINATION OF DIGESTER PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS ....................................................................... 54 5.1 Purpose ............................................................................................................................ 54 5.2 Results and discussion ..................................................................................................... 54 5.2.1 Characterization ........................................................................................................ 54 5.2.2 Gas Production .......................................................................................................... 56 5.2.3 Gas chromatography analysis .................................................................................... 60 5.3 Fitting the pilot data to a simplified anaerobic digestion model ........................................ 61 5.4 Scale-up and future considerations ................................................................................... 68 6. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............................................. 70 6.1 Waste characterization and biochemical methane potential testing ................................... 70 6.2 Pilot data and model fitting .............................................................................................. 71 6.2.1 Physical results .......................................................................................................... 71 6.2.2 Modeling ................................................................................................................... 72 6.3 Future work ..................................................................................................................... 73 APPENDICES .......................................................................................................................... 75 Appendix A: Visual description of zoo samples ..................................................................... 76 Appendix B: Additional BMP data ........................................................................................ 77 Appendix C: Additional data from small-scale pilot testing.................................................... 84 Appendix D: MATLAB code for fitting model to the small-scale pilot digester data .............. 98 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 106 v LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Type and quantity of animal wastes at the Detroit Zoo ................................................. 20 Table 2: Comparison of design conditions for Detroit Zoo digester and pilot digesters .............. 33 Table 3: List of materials used for construction of small-scale pilot digesters ............................ 33 Table 4: Pilot feeding schedule .................................................................................................. 36 Table 5: Individual animal waste characterization ..................................................................... 42 Table 6: Characteristics of animal wastes by category a ............................................................. 44 Table 7: Pre and post-digestion TS content in BMP bottles ....................................................... 46 Table 8: Pre and post-digestion VS content in BMP bottles ....................................................... 46 Table 9: Pre and post-digestion chemical oxygen demand in BMP bottles ................................. 47 Table 10: Pre and post-digestion ammonia-nitrogen in BMP bottles .......................................... 47 Table 11: Pre and post-digestion pH in BMP bottles.................................................................. 48 Table 12: Total average cumulative biogas production from 30-day BMP test ........................... 49 Table 13: Biochemical methane potential of zoo wastes a, b ....................................................... 50 Table 14: Theoretical mass and energy balance of anaerobic digestion of zoo wastes ................ 52 Table 15: Pre and post-digestion total solids content in pilot digesters ....................................... 55 Table 16: Pre and post-digestion volatile solids in pilot digesters .............................................. 55 Table 17: Pre and post-digestion carbon-nitrogen ratio .............................................................. 55 Table 18: Pilot digester leachate volume and pH ....................................................................... 56 Table 19: Biogas production at day 30 and day 50 of pilot test .................................................. 60 Table 20: Parameter estimation and result of statistical analysis ................................................ 66 Table 21: Visual description of zoo samples .............................................................................. 76 Table 22: BMP round 1 raw characterization ............................................................................. 77 vi Table 23: Round 1 BMP pre-digestion data ............................................................................... 78 Table 24: Round 1 BMP post-digestion data.............................................................................. 79 Table 25: Round 1 BMP gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis ............... 79 Table 26: BMP round 2 raw characterization ............................................................................. 80 Table 27: Round 2 BMP pre-digestion data ............................................................................... 80 Table 28: Round 2 BMP post-digestion data.............................................................................. 81 Table 29: BMP Round 2 gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis ............... 81 Table 30: BMP round 3 raw characterization ............................................................................. 82 Table 31: Round 3 BMP pre-digestion data ............................................................................... 82 Table 32: Round 3 BMP post-digestion data.............................................................................. 83 Table 33: BMP Round 3 gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis ............... 83 Table 34: Biogas production data for each collection point for zoo mix 1 pilot .......................... 84 Table 35: Gas composition measured weekly for zoo mix 1 pilot .............................................. 87 Table 36: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the zoo mix 1 pilot ..................... 87 Table 37: Biogas production data for each collection point for zoo mix 2 pilot .......................... 87 Table 38: Gas composition measured weekly for zoo mix 2 pilot .............................................. 90 Table 39: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the Zoo Mix 2 pilot .................... 90 Table 40: Biogas production data for each collection point for ZMF 1 pilot............................... 91 Table 41: Gas composition measured weekly for ZMF 1 pilot ................................................... 93 Table 42: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the ZMF 1 pilot .......................... 94 Table 43: Biogas production data for each collection point for ZMF 2 pilot............................... 94 Table 44: Gas composition measured weekly for ZMF 2 pilot ................................................... 97 Table 45: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the ZMF 2 pilot .......................... 97 vii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Weight distribution of different waste blends ............................................................. 22 Figure 2: Diagram of a small-scale pilot dry anaerobic digester system ..................................... 34 Figure 3: Tip meter connected to pilot digesters ........................................................................ 35 Figure 4: Pilot set-up in temperature-controlled room................................................................ 35 Figure 5: Gas sampling port connected to the gas outlet tubing from the small-scale pilot digesters prior to the gas entering the tip meter .......................................................................... 38 Figure 6: Reduction of TS, VS, COD, and increase NH3-N during the BMP testing .................. 48 Figure 7: Average cumulative biogas production from BMP testing .......................................... 49 Figure 8: Carbon footprint of zoo with different waste treatment processes ............................... 53 Figure 9: Cumulative biogas production from each pilot digester .............................................. 57 Figure 10: Leachate pH as collected in 60 day period ................................................................ 58 Figure 11: Rate of gas production during pilot testing ............................................................... 59 Figure 12: Pilot methane content from gas chromatography analysis ......................................... 60 Figure 13: Scaled sensitivity coefficients ................................................................................... 62 Figure 14: Normalized sequential parameter.............................................................................. 64 Figure 15: Model plotted with confidence and prediction bands ................................................ 68 viii KEY TO SYMBOLS AD anaerobic digestion ADREC Anaerobic Digestion Research and Education Center AZA Association of Zoos and Aquariums BMP biochemical methane potential (L biogas per kg VS) BMPm biochemical methane potential (L CH4 per kg VS) CH4 methane CN carbon nitrogen CO carbon monoxide CO2 carbon dioxide COD chemical oxygen demand CSTR continuous stirred tank reactor DZS Detroit Zoological Society GWP global warming potential H2S hydrogen sulfide MSU Michigan State University MSUSCAD Michigan State University South Campus Anaerobic Digester N2 nitrogen NH3 ammonia gas NH3-N ammonia-nitrogen OSHA Occupational Health and Safety Administration O2 oxygen ix RMSE root mean square error SSC scaled sensitivity coefficient TS total solids VS volatile solids ZMF zoo mix & 10 % food waste x 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Problem statement Sustainability is becoming increasingly important for zoos and aquariums across the country. The Association of Zoos and Aquariums (AZA), with over 230 accredited zoos and aquariums in the United States, supports the conservation of animals, and providing resources for sustainable practices through green initiatives ("Association of Zoos and Aquariums," 2016). In 2008, the “Communicating Climate Change and the Oceans Summit” was held in Monterey, California (Kelsey, 2010). The results of the summit were a mobilization of representatives to make an effort to fight climate change through visitor education in aquariums (Kelsey, 2010). The same summit, held in Baltimore, Maryland in 2012, followed up on the 2008 conclusions and furthered the discussion on increasing climate change awareness through a variety of initiatives (2012 Summit Aquariums Communicating Climate Change, 2011). A public opinion survey conducted by The Ocean Project (2009) that found that zoos and aquariums are trusted public outlets for environmental action and campaigns for climate change, so that people expect information and leadership on climate change from these venues ("America, the Ocean, and Climate Change: New Research Insights for Conservation, Awareness, and Action," 2009; Kerr, 2010). The Detroit Zoological Society (DZS) in Royal Oak, Michigan, began operations in 1928 with just 14 permanently housed animals, and is now home to over 2,400 animals ("Detroit Zoo," 2016). The AZA accredited zoo abides by the vision of AZA to promote green practices and holds paramount a commitment to environmental leadership and conservation ("Detroit Zoo," 2016; "Greenprint," 2016). As part of this commitment, the zoo developed an initiative, 1 Greenprint, as a “green roadmap” to improve zoo policies and practices to decrease the zoo’s environmental footprint ("Greenprint," 2016). In addition to Greenprint, the zoo also has an initiative entitled “The Zoo that Could”, that promotes on-site energy production and the use of 100% renewable energy in the zoo ("The Zoo that Could,"). At the forefront of sustainability issues for the Detroit Zoo and other zoos across the world are organic waste management and high energy consumption (Klasson & Nghiem, 2003; Kusch, 2012). The Detroit Zoological Society generates over 450 metric tons of animal manure each year. A majority of this waste is collected in a 20-yard garbage truck and hauled offsite to be composted (Handbury, 2016). Along with animal manure, each year the zoo has 45 metric tons of organic food waste generated from on-site cafeteria style food venues (Handbury, 2016). In addition to the need for sustainable waste management, there is also a large energy consumption at zoos across the United States, with one study estimating 0.52-26.32 kWh per square meter per year (Kusch, 2012). Using this estimate, at nearly 506,000 square meters, the energy consumed by the Detroit Zoo is between 263,000 and 13,318,000 kWh per year. This wide range is attributed to the recreation of animal habitats with differences in energy requirements such as heating, cooling, and lighting (Kusch, 2012). Animal care management guidelines from AZA provide standards for animal habitats including temperature ranges, lighting, and water and air quality, thus setting baseline values for energy consumption ("Association of Zoos and Aquariums," 2016). Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a technology that converts organic waste materials into value added products. AD provides appropriate waste treatment in an energy-efficient manner, while mitigating the adverse environmental impact of organic waste disposal. The outputs of anaerobic digestion are a nutrient rich digestate and biogas containing 55 to 75% methane (Tambone et al., 2 2010). Methane (CH4), the same constituent in natural gas, can be converted to generate electricity or directly combusted for fuel. Digestate can be further treated with composting or other value added treatments, or land applied as an organic fertilizer. There is limited information regarding characterization, biogas potential, and anaerobic digestion of zoo animal wastes (Kusch, 2012). Waste management practices at zoos across the United States include composting, landfilling, and incineration, all of which deny the potential to maximize value from the waste produced. In addition, landfilling and incineration of wastes can produce CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2), noxious greenhouse gasses released directly into the environment contributing to global climate change. With an in depth understanding of organic waste produced at zoos, anaerobic digestion systems can be applied to alleviate adverse environmental impacts. In addition, optimization, safety, education, and operations must also be considered to achieve maximum benefits of an anaerobic digestion system. Proper education on management is important in ensuring long term success of the system (Bracmort, Burns, Beddoes, & Lazarus, 2008). 1.2 Goal and objectives In order to determine the treatment capacity of on-site organic waste including animal manure and food waste from the Detroit Zoo, this study performed a comprehensive analysis of zoo animal waste. The analysis was conducted to allow zoos to make educated decisions in design, implementation, and optimization of an anaerobic digester for on-site waste management. The specific objectives of this study were to: 3 (1) quantify and characterize organic waste substrates from the Detroit Zoo for application in anaerobic digestion, (2) determine the potential biogas production from manure and food waste, generated from the zoo, and (3) establish and improve the digester operating parameters such as feedstock for codigestion, retention time, and leachate recirculation schedule through small-scale pilot testing and model development. 4 2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Anaerobic digestion Anaerobic digestion (AD) is a waste treatment technology that biologically converts organic waste into value added products that thrive in the absence of oxygen (Olsen & Caruana, 2011). There are four primary reactions in AD including (1) hydrolysis, (2) acidogenesis, (3) acetogenesis, and (4) methanogenesis (Crook & Gould, 2009; Khalid, Arshad, Anjum, Mahmood, & Dawson, 2011; Mani, Sundaram, & Das, 2016; Q. Zhang, Hu, & Lee, 2016). During the process complex organic compounds in the substrate are converted into methane-rich biogas (Brule, Oechsner, & Jungbluth, 2014; Crook & Gould, 2009). In addition to biogas, solid and liquid effluent, or digestate, are produced. 2.1.1 Factors influencing anaerobic digestion Several important factors that are used to measure the quality of waste treatment and methane production in anaerobic digestion including pH, temperature, total solids (TS), volatile solids (VS), chemical oxygen demand (COD), carbon nitrogen (CN) ratio, and ammonia-nitrogen (NH3-N). VS and COD content are both parameters that can be used to analytically predict the biogas output of a substrate in anaerobic digestion, therefore determining the suitability of a substrate for digestion (Crook & Gould, 2009). During fermentation volatile solids are turned into acids and then used by methanogens to produce biogas (Brule et al., 2014; Crook & Gould, 2009). High volatile solids content is desirable for increasing gas production (Crook & Gould, 2009). In addition to substrates with high volatile solids content, wastewaters with COD greater than 250 mg/L are applicable for digestion given that there is a sufficient amount of organic material that is able to be used for digestion (Mes, Stams, Reith, & Zeeman, 2003; Olsen & Caruana, 5 2011). Under ideal temperature, microbial, and degradability conditions, each kg of COD converted can produce 331 L methane (Crook & Gould, 2009). Temperature and pH are both parameters that need to be considered for the optimal methane production and stability of the microbial community in the digester. The pH of a digester is important to maintain viability of the anaerobic microbes in the material (Liu, Yuan, Zeng, Li, & Li, 2008). The pH effects the enzymatic activity in the digester given that certain enzymes are active in a narrow band of pH values (Lay, Li, & Noike, 1997). Low pH can prevent the production of methane and produce a buildup of hydrogen (H 2) which reduces pH further and inhibits production (Crook & Gould, 2009). One study developed a model for determining pH for optimum methane production at varying temperatures that can be useful in digester operation and optimization (Liu et al., 2008). Carbon, a food for anaerobic microbes, is used up 25 to 30 times faster by microbes than nitrogen during anaerobic digestion the CN ratio should be in the 25:1 to 30:1 range for efficient digestion (Yadvika, Santosh, Sreekrishnan, Kohli, & Rana, 2004). In a study that observed differences in temperature ranges and CN ratio on anaerobic digestion of dairy (cow) manure, poultry manure, and rice straw, found a CN ratios of 25:1 and 30:1 at temperatures of 35°C and 55°C, respectively, yielded maximum methane production (Wang, Lu, Li, & Yang, 2014). The same study found that lower CN ratios of 15 and 20 at 35°C and 55°C reduced methane potential and increased ammonia inhibition (Wang et al., 2014). Ammonia-nitrogen can be used as a measure of the viability of the gas production in the digestion process. Ammonia toxicity can occur at ammonia concentrations above 3,000 mg/L and can cause digester failure (Crook & Gould, 2009). 6 Anaerobic digestion can occur in three different temperature ranges: psychrophilic (below 20°C), mesophilic (25 to 40°C), and thermophilic (52 to 58°C) (Crook & Gould, 2009; DonosoBravo, Bandara, Satoh, & Ruiz-Filippi, 2013). The mesophilic range, usually around 38°C, is considered to be the preferred temperature for stability of microorganisms (Crook & Gould, 2009). Donoso-Bravo, Bandara, Satoh, and Ruiz-Filippi (2013) compared two models on the effect of temperature on anaerobic digestion wherein the temperature was allowed to fluctuate with seasonal changes from 5-30°C (Donoso-Bravo et al., 2013). The study determined that a cardinal temperature model could accurately describe the trend in both CH4 and CO2 production, wherein temperature fluctuations directly impacted gas production (Donoso-Bravo et al., 2013). 2.1.2 Evaluation of substrates for anaerobic digestion To determine the feasibility and economic viability of using a certain substrate for anaerobic digestion, there are several methods and method adaptations for estimating biogas potential of organic waste materials including: a Biochemical Methane Potential (BMP) test and an Automatic Methane Potential Test System (ASMPTS), among other methods (Badshah, Lam, Liu, & Mattiasson, 2012; El Achkar et al., 2016). BMP results are typically reported as L biogas per kg of volatile solid in the raw feed. Using the conversion method described by Maclellan, Chen, Kraemer, Zhong, and Liao (2013), the biogas potential value can be converted to estimated electrical output (Maclellan et al., 2013). For the purpose of evaluating zoo organic waste materials, this study will employ the BMP test method described by Faivor and Kirk (2011), and derived from Chynoweth and others (1993) (Chynoweth, Turick, Owens, Jerger, & Peck, 1993; Faivor & Kirk, 2011). This BMP method uses a 2:1 sample VS to filtrate VS ratio for test set up. The test is run under temperature controlled mesophilic conditions. The results of the BMP test are the biogas potential (BMP), or methane potential (BMP m). 7 There is a variety of organic feedstocks applicable to AD including manure and food waste, among other organic materials. Currently, there is significant research surrounding anaerobic digestion of ruminant hoofstock animal manure such as cattle, sheep, and goat. In addition, there is also prevalent research on other livestock animal wastes like horse, swine, and poultry litter. In a BMP study performed on five different livestock animal manures including: dairy (cow), swine, goat, and horse gas production was 295, 495, 242 and 222 L biogas per kg VS, respectively (Kafle & Chen, 2016). The Association for Technology and Structures reported BMP values for cattle, swine, poultry, as 420, 817, and 584 L biogas per kg VS, respectively ("Cost-Effectiveness Biogas Calculator," 2016). Another study reported BMPm for cattle, swine, and poultry manure as 323, 558, and 290 L CH4 per kg VS respectively (Hidalgo & MartínMarroquín, 2015). It is expected that the BMP and characterization of animal waste at the Detroit Zoo, which contains 95% hoofstock animals, would be in the range of other hoofstock animals waste. Codigestion is when two or more substrates are blended together to improve biogas production, digestion of the material, and economic feasibility. Prior to excretion, animal manure goes through the digestive tract of the animal, therefore utilizing much of the energy potential, whereas food waste has not previously undergone digestion and therefore has higher energy content (López, Passeggi, & Borzacconi, 2015). Food waste could be codigested with the zoo waste to improve gas production. However, food waste as a mono-substrate is not favorable for anaerobic digestion due to its rapid biodegradability, production of long chain fatty acids, and drop in pH throughout the course of the test (Ebner, Labatut, Lodge, Williamson, & Trabold, 2016; C. Zhang, Xiao, Peng, Su, & Tan, 2013). 8 At the DZS, food waste can be codigested along with the herbivore animal waste to capitalize on synergistic properties of microbial communities in different waste streams. In a study performed by Zhang, Xiao, Peng, Su, and Tan (2013) the addition of food waste to cattle manure in comparison to manure digestion, in both batch and continuous tests, increased methane production (C. Zhang et al., 2013). Ebner, Labatut, Lodge, Williamson, and Trabold (2016) reported BMPm values for manure and food waste ranging from 165 L CH4 per kg VS for a blend of preparation waste (kitchen waste with low biodegradability) to 496 L CH 4 per kg VS for a food service blend (food preparation post-consumer waste, and uneaten food) (Ebner et al., 2016). The same study reported an increase in biogas potential in blends of raw manure and food waste, validating the benefits of codigestion with food waste (Ebner et al., 2016). Another report estimated BMP for food waste to be 879 L biogas per kg volatile solids ("CostEffectiveness Biogas Calculator," 2016). 2.1.3 Anaerobic digestion outputs The products of anaerobic digestion are biogas and solid and liquid effluent (Wedwitschka, Jenson, & Liebetrau, 2016). Biogas containing CH4, CO2 and trace amounts of other gasses (ammonia (NH3), hydrogen sulfide (H2S), oxygen (O2), nitrogen (N2), and carbon monoxide (CO)) is produced as a result of anaerobic digestion (Khalid et al., 2011; Sun et al., 2015; Q. Zhang et al., 2016). Biogas with a composition of 55 to 75% methane has an energy content of 6.0 to 6.5 kWh per m3 of biogas and can be combusted (Deublein & Steinhauser, 2008) Biomethane is another term that is used to describe the methane portion of the biogas. In large scale anaerobic digestion systems biogas can be collected and upgraded to run a generator, but also can be sent to the natural gas grid or used in boilers and stoves (Sun et al., 2015). 9 Depending on the end use of the biomethane, it is usually necessary to improve the quality of the biogas to remove moisture, H2S, and CO2 (Sun et al., 2015). There are a variety of methods for upgrading biogas including water scrubbing, physical and chemical absorption, and membrane technology, among others (Sun et al., 2015). As suggested by Appels and others (2011), the digestate, or slurry produced from anaerobic digestion can separated and land applied as a fertilizer or turned into other value added products such as biochar or bioalcohol (Appels et al., 2011; Kondaveeti & Min, 2015; Tambone et al., 2010). Digestate from anaerobic digestion is high in mineralized nutrients, or nutrients that are readily used by crops, therefore posing a positive economic reuse of waste material (Crook & Gould, 2009; "Local energy production from biowaste," 2014). In batch anaerobic digestion, liquid digestate can be recycled to inoculate the new material (Wedwitschka et al., 2016). 2.1.4 Environmental impact of anaerobic digestion If released into the environment directly, as in a landfill, methane gas can have adverse environmental impacts and increase the global warming potential (GWP). GWP refers to how much energy one ton of gas will absorb compared to one ton of CO2 over time ("Understanding Global Warming Potentials," 2016). As reported by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), CH4, the primary component of biogas, has a GWP of 28-36 tons of CO2 over a 100-year span ("Understanding Global Warming Potentials," 2016). CH4, when combusted in a generator, produces CO2 that is carbon-neutral, with less net impact on greenhouse emissions than direct release of biomethane (Khalid et al., 2011; Ward, Hobbs, Holliman, & Jones, 2008). While digestate from AD can function as a well-mineralized fertilizer for crop application, it can also adversely impact the environment if it is not utilized properly. Digestate can be applied in excess of what crops can uptake and can leach into local waterways causing 10 eutrophication (Yilmazel & Demirer, 2013). One study suggested that removal of the nitrogen and phosphorus content in the digestate is necessary to avoid eutrophication (Yilmazel & Demirer, 2013). The appropriate level of nitrogen and phosphorus needs to be reduced during digestion or post-digestion to avoid adverse environmental impact from over applying the material. With a nutrient loading calculation of the targeted land, digestate can be appropriately land applied as an organic fertilizer to reduce the use of chemical based fertilizers. 2.1.5 Locations and types of anaerobic digesters Anaerobic digesters have applications in many different parts of society and the world. In small scale application, digesters can function to improve energy reliability and deal with waste treatment roadblocks, such as those in rural India (Appels et al., 2011). Agriculture and industry are also important applications for anaerobic digestion as many digesters in the United States are located on dairy farms, wastewater treatment plants, and food processing facilities (EPA, 2016; Water, 2016). There are several different designs of digesters that consider varying design constraints such as manure handling on-site, TS content of material, material consistency, and local climate (Roos, Martin Jr., & Moser, 2004). Covered lagoon and fixed film reactors require a solids content of less than 3% and are suitable in warm and temperate climates and is generally applied in dairy and swine applications (Crook & Gould, 2009; Roos et al., 2004). A continuous Stirred Tank Reactor (CSTR), also known as a complete mix digester, is common in dairy and swine operations with a total solids concentration of manure less than 11% (Conservation Practice Standard Anaerobic Digester Code 366, 2009; Crook & Gould, 2009; Roos et al., 2004). Organic waste produced from the zoo is high in solids content due to the manure being mixed with bedding, leaves, animal feed, and other organic materials. Studies report high solids 11 digesters are applicable when feedstocks have a total solids content greater than 25-30% (w/w) (Mes et al., 2003; Wedwitschka et al., 2016) . Given the high solids content of zoo organic waste, high solids batch anaerobic digestion is the best suited technology (Kusch, 2012; Wedwitschka et al., 2016). In a high-solids batch reactor the substrate is placed into a chamber where it remains, typically without mixing, for 20 to 30, or more days (Wedwitschka et al., 2016). Batch digestion relies on recirculation of liquid digestate, or leachate, from the previously digested material to provide a microbial inoculum to each new batch (Wedwitschka et al., 2016). The leachate percolates through the material, is collected in a holding tank, and pumped back into the chamber. Solid digestate is removed after the required retention time and can be further composted or land applied. High-solids digestion generally does not need water added to the process, and is simple to construct and relatively inexpensive to operate (Wedwitschka et al., 2016). High-solids digesters are favorable for integration with a composting process, as the effluent does not have to pass through a solid liquid separator. Given that the digestate does not have to be separated, and that the material is not mixed regularly as in a CSTR, there is less energy consumption from these types of digesters. Despite less energy consumption, there is typically less energy produced, as the system is generally not as efficient as CSTR systems likely due to less uniformity in the process (Wedwitschka et al., 2016). As high solids-digesters require recycle of solid digestate to ramp up production and stabilize the new system, often the capacity must be large to accommodate the material needed, which can increase construction costs. High solids batch digestion systems are dependent on operational parameters being optimal for digestion efficiency. Retention time, leachate recirculation, and feedstock codigestion are all parameters that can be adjusted to improve digester performance and biogas 12 production. Small-scale pilot systems can be employed to study the digestion performance and develop models for methane production to predict scale-up performance parameters. 2.1.6 Models for anaerobic digestion Modeling allows for an improved understanding of anaerobic digestion, increased knowledge of design constraints, and a method for prediction of waste treatment capacity and methane production (Garcia-Ochoa, Santos, Naval, Guardiola, & Lopez, 1999) . There are several models for batch anaerobic digestion of livestock manures and other organic materials. One study was able to successfully model the production of acetogenic and methanogenic bacterial biomass (Garcia-Ochoa et al., 1999). By simplifying the steps of anaerobic digestion into acid formation (hydrolysis and acidogensis), and methane formation (acetogensis and methanogensis), Brule and others (2014) developed a model for the prediction of methane production from a BMP test (Brule et al., 2014). Another study was able to optimize the design time of leachate recirculation by determining a relationship between the sprinkling rate of leachate and the solids retention time to maximize methane production (Thamsiriroj, Nizami, & Murphy, 2012). One study comparatively analyzed the following models: the Logistic function, Modified Gompertz equation (Equation 20), and reaction curve-type model by fitting data from anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge (Donoso-Bravo, Pérez-Elvira, & Fdz-Polanco, 2010). The study found that each of the models were able to estimate the performance parameters. Another study used the same model to assess the performance conditions under influences of pH and moisture content in high solids sludge digestion (Lay et al., 1997). Appels et. al. (2011) concludes that more development of models is necessary to improve the understanding of the system for optimization (Appels et al., 2011). 13 2.2 Anaerobic digestion for zoos As part of the Greenprint initiative, the DZS committed to “lessening their environmental impact” by developing a plan to “refine and improve daily practices, develop new policies and programs, and improve green literacy” ("Greenprint," 2016). As part of this initiative, the zoo looked to anaerobic digestion to provide a value added waste management solution to their onsite organic waste production. 2.2.1 Organic waste management at zoos There is a need for sustainable waste management of organic material produced on-site at zoos. The Detroit Zoo produces over 450 metric tons of animal manure each year that is hauled offsite each week with a standard garbage truck to be composted. In addition, the zoo landfills 45 metric tons of organic food waste yearly. Anaerobic digestion is a viable solution to address organic waste management, while providing the economic incentive of waste reutilization. In order to determine the feasibility of an anaerobic digestion system at the Detroit Zoo, a comprehensive understanding of the organic waste is necessary. Currently, composting is an option for management of the bird and hoofstock animal waste on site. Other animal manures in the primate, carnivore, and omnivore categories are landfilled due to concern of the end compost retaining human transmittable pathogens. According to Martins and others (2013), composting zoo animal waste is a good method to break down the waste (Martins et al., 2013). Although composting is an appropriate method for treatment, it does not allow biogas to be collected, which can improve the economic impact of organic waste management. Anaerobic digestion is used for waste management for few zoos in the world, including the Hellabrun Zoo in Munich, Germany, and since 2017, the DZS. At the Munich Zoo, a batch 14 anaerobic digester with 3 digestion chambers was constructed and operates on herbivore manure, bedding, and green wastes (Kusch, 2012). Each chamber has a loading capacity of 100 m3 and average 410 m3 per day of biogas under mesophilic conditions (Kusch, 2012). Biogas from the digester is ran through a combined heat and power generator to provide electricity and heat on site (Kusch, 2012). Although the Hellabrun Zoo has different animals than the Detroit Zoo, it validates that anaerobic digestion is feasible at zoos across the world. 2.2.2 Zoo animal waste characterization There is minimal information available to describe the waste characteristics of zoo animal manure (Kusch, 2012). In a study performed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory, elephant and rhinoceros manure were determined to have a biogas potential of 26 L biogas per kg waste and 33 L biogas per kg waste, respectively. The study determined that an anaerobic digester that treats 20 metric tons of material per week would produce enough energy to run two standard garden grills. Due to limited characterization data, additional characterization of zoo animal wastes was necessary to determine the biogas potential and feasibility of a batch digester at the DZS. 2.2.3 Zoo energy consumption In a study performed on German, Swiss, and Austrian zoos, and reported by Kusch, zoos consume 0.52 to 26 kWh per m2 per year (also estimated to be 26 to 1,978 kWh per animal per year) (Kusch, 2012; Simon). There is a large variation in habitat energy consumption due to the different conditions that zoos must replicate for the animals to thrive in and the zoos use of interactive and visual displays (Kusch, 2012). The Detroit Zoo specifically, has 506,000 m2 of ‘naturalistic habitats’, which converts to 263,000 to 13,300,000 kWh per m2 land surface area per year ("Detroit Zoo," 2016; Kusch, 2012). 15 2.3 Anaerobic digester safety To manage an anaerobic digester at a zoo, it is important to understand the safety aspects. The Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) regulations applicable to anaerobic digesters need to be implemented to maintain the safety of persons in contact with the digester. Both influent and effluent from anaerobic digestion should be handled properly to avoid adverse impacts. Feedstock and digestate should be handled carefully and extra attention should be given when loading and unloading digester cells (Agstar, 2011). Material should be contained to the loading area and spills outside the area should be contained. Additionally, leachate is produced in the batch anaerobic digestion process and generally stored in a holding tank. Confined space training is required by OSHA for small spaces where workers must enter to perform tasks, such as fixing sump levels or clogged pipes that can occur in batch digestion (Agstar, 2011). Persons entering a confined space must test the atmosphere prior to entry using a handheld device, and O2 should be above 19.5 percent volume by air, CH4 below 5 percent volume by air, and H2S level below 20 ppm (Agstar, 2011). Given that anaerobic digestion produces a flammable gas, there are safety concerns that need to be addressed in operation. One primary concern is the anaerobic conditions within the digester. If air is mixed in large quantities, it may produce an explosive mixture of gas (Crook & Gould, 2009). The gas produced also has potential to leak to the environment causing a fire hazard, explosion potential, and an increase in GHG emissions (Crook & Gould, 2009). In a dry digestion system, there is risk when opening the chamber to refill it and being exposed to CH 4, CO2, and H2S. These gases produced with storage of organic material and during anaerobic digestion are asphyxiants and should be monitored closely (Agstar, 2011). Given this, it is 16 important that operators always have a wearable safety monitor on-person and follow appropriate loading and unloading procedures. The generator used for anaerobic digestion is a source of noise in anaerobic digestion. Proper noise canceling equipment should be employed to protect individuals from excessive noise. OSHA requires that the managing facility provide hearing protection to maintain a safe maximum allowable decibel level(Agstar, 2011). There are hazards associated with production of electrical generation. Licensed electricians should provide maintenance and repairs (Agstar, 2011). Electrical equipment should be regularly inspected and problems should be noted and fixed by licensed personnel (Agstar, 2011). Signage should be posted for electrical generation hazards present (Agstar, 2011). An emergency action plan should be implemented in the AD facility that should include the events needed in case of an emergency at the facility (Agstar, 2011). Contact personnel, state and local health requirements, and equipment manuals should also be included. Emergency and safety equipment should be readily available on-site for operators to employ. 17 3. MATERIALS AND METHODS 3.1 Organic waste collection and handling Organic waste samples were collected and analyzed by the MSU Anaerobic Digestion Research and Education Center (ADREC). 3.1.1 Zoo organic waste Zoo manures were picked up triweekly from the DZS and subsamples were taken between April 2016 and September 2017. In addition to raw animal manure, the samples contained bedding, hay, leaves, twigs, and animal feed, among other organic materials. Samples were transported to MSU in coolers with ice. All zoo wastes were refrigerated at 4°C prior to analysis. 3.1.2 Food waste Pre-consumer food waste used was collected from Brody Cafeteria at MSU and was assumed similar in nature to the cafeteria-style pre-consumer food waste generated at DZS. The waste was collected from a pulper containing all food prep wastes from the cafeteria. Due to the rapid degradability of food waste, samples were stored in a freezer at -18°C prior to analysis. 3.1.3 Filtrate Filtrate was collected from the MSU South Campus Anaerobic Digester (MSUSCAD). The MSUSCAD utilized a mix of approximately 50% dairy manure and 50% food waste and food processing residuals as feedstock. The filtrate is the liquid portion of the effluent after the material passed through a screw press solid-liquid separator with a 500-micron main screen and 750-micron press screen. New filtrate was collected prior to each round of BMP samples (n=3) and weekly for pilot testing. Filtrate for characterization and BMP analyses was stored in a 18 refrigerator at 4°C. Filtrate used in pilot testing was stored at room temperature, 20-22°C, opposed the refrigerator in order to mimic zoo conditions. 3.2 Waste quantification The waste was quantified based on estimates provided from the DZS landscape and sustainability managers. Total waste production was calculated based on an estimated amount of cans picked up per animal habitat per pickup and the assumed density of the wastes. Given the large quantity of bedding used and the nature of the samples, the density of the hoofstock mix was assumed to be similar to sawdust, 272 kg/m3, and bird mix was assumed to be the same as loose straw, 40 kg/m3 (Glover, 1995; Lorimor, Powers, & Sutton, 2004). Waste production and percentages from the respective animal habitats can be found in Table 1. In addition to animal wastes, the DZS estimates 10 % of their total annual waste is food waste from their cafeterias and animal feed prep. 19 Table 1: Type and quantity of animal wastes at the Detroit Zoo Animal Animal type Waste production Weight percentage category of the total waste (kg per year) (%) Aardvark 13,752 2.57 Barnyard a 85,950 16.06 Bison 34,380 6.42 Camel, Deer 85,950 16.06 Eland 27,504 5.14 Hoofstock Giraffe 41,256 7.71 Guanaco, Rhea, Deer 27,504 5.14 Kangaroo 20,628 3.85 Rhino 68,760 12.85 b Veldt 103,140 19.27 Bird Mix 1 c 5,056 0.94 d Bird Bird Mix 2 5,056 0.94 e West Pampas 1,011 0.19 Carnivore Lion 9,412 1.76 Primate Great Ape 5,772 1.08 Total 535,131 100 a. Barnyard includes cow, horse, swine, and goat. b. Veldt includes warthog and zebra. c. Bird mix 1 includes flamingo, vulture, golden crown, spoonbill, and stork. d. Bird mix 2 includes flamingo, goose, and vulture. e. West pampas includes emu and flightless birds. 3.3 Preparation of sample mixtures Animal wastes were grouped into four categories including: carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, and bird mix. The carnivore and primate samples contained the lion and great ape habitats, respectively. Hoofstock and bird mixtures were prepared according to the estimated waste production from the respective category (Figures 1a and 1b). A zoo mix was prepared by mixing the carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, and bird mix based on the estimated proportion of waste produced each year (Figure 1c). Additionally, Based on food waste estimates from the DZS, the zoo mix was combined with food waste in a 90:10 ratio of zoo mix to food waste (ZMF) (Figure 1d). For pilot testing and NREL characterization, carnivore and primate wastes were excluded 20 due to the likelihood of them not being included in the commercial-scale system at the Detroit Zoo. All other testing included carnivore and primate wastes. Giraffe Eland 8% 5% Aardvark 3% Kangaroos 4% Rhinos 14% Veldt 20% a. Hoofstock Mix Barnyard 17% Bison 7% Camels, Deer 17% Guanaco, Rhea, Deer 5% West Pampas 9% b. Bird Mix Bird Mix 1 45% Bird Mix 2 46% Figure 1: Weight distribution of different waste blends 21 Figure 1 (cont’d) Bird Mix 2% Primate Carnivore 1% 2% c. Zoo Mix Hoofstock Mix 95% d. ZMF Food Waste 10% Zoo Mix 90% 22 3.4 Waste characterization The raw samples were characterized for TS and VS using EPA accepted Hach methods 8271 and 8276, respectively. For TS, the oven holding time was increased from six to 24 hours to ensure complete drying. The VS holding time was increased from one to 6 hours to guarantee complete sample combustion. Pre and post BMP digestion analyses performed were TS, VS, NH3-N, CN ratio, COD, and pH. NH3-N was performed using accepted Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Hach standard 10205. COD was performed using EPA accepted Hach method 8000. The BMP pH and EC was tested using an Accumet Excel XL60 meter by Fisher Scientific. Pre and post pilot digestion testing included TS, VS, CN ratio, and structural carbohydrates and lignin. CN ratio was performed by two outside laboratories including Michigan State University (MSU) Plant and Soil Science Lab and A&L Great Lakes Laboratories using elemental analyses. Samples sent to an outside lab for CN ratio analysis were stored in containers with ice during transport and were shipped overnight. The pilot leachate pH testing was done using a Thermo Scientific Orion Star A215 Benchtop meter. 3.5 Biochemical methane potential Test (BMP) Three rounds of BMP testing were performed. Each round, new zoo, food waste, and filtrate samples were collected. Samples were collected in June, July, and October of 2016. The samples tested were carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, bird mix, zoo mix, food waste, and ZMF. 3.5.1 Set-up The BMP samples were set up using the method described by Faivor and Kirk (2011), and derived from Chynoweth and others (Chynoweth et al., 1993; Faivor & Kirk, 2011). After the 23 initial raw sample characterization was completed, sample blends were calculated for the BMP analysis based on a 2:1 filtrate to sample ratio, with the volume of the filtrate not to exceed 20% of the bottle volume. Blends were set up to contain 60 mL of filtrate, a calculated amount of sample to achieve a 2:1 filtrate to sample VS ratio, and the remaining amount up to 300 mL of deionized water. Due to the heterogeneity of the DZS samples, they were macerated using a Nutri-Ninja Professional BL450 900 Watt blender without the addition of water to increase uniformity (Hansen et al., 2004). BMPs for each sample were set up in triplicate to account for varying quality of filtrate and heterogeneity of the material (Hansen et al., 2004). Triplicate controls were also set up containing 60 mL of filtrate and 240 mL of deionized water. The blends were mixed on a stir plate for 10 minutes and 150 mL of the blend was placed into a 200 mL Kimble Chase serum bottle. The remaining 150 mL of the blends were retained for predigestion analyses. The bottles were sealed with a butyl rubber septa from Geo-Microbial Technologies, INC. and a crimped aluminum cap. The bottles were flushed with nitrogen at a flowrate of 750 mL per minute for 10 minutes and placed into a mesophilic temperature room at 35°C on a Thermolyne Bigger Bill Oscillator laboratory mixer. After two hours, gas was released from the bottles and the time was recorded as the starting time. The BMP testing continued for 30 days. 3.5.2 Operation and Monitoring Gas production was measured daily using a 10, 30, 50 or 100 mL wetted glass syringe. Syringe volume selection was based on the prior day’s gas production. Gas composition including CH4, CO2, and H2S was measured weekly using a HayeSep D column in a SRI 8610 Gas Chromatograph with a flame ionization detector (FID) and thermal conductivity detector (TCD). The sample was taken from the bottle headspace after gas production was measured. 24 The bottles were taken apart after 30 days and post-digestion analyses were performed on the effluent. 3.5.3 BMP Calculations Raw gas is measured in a lab maintained at 22°C and is assumed saturated. Gas is normalized for standard temperature (0°C) and pressure (1 atm) (STP) using the Equation 1. 𝐺𝑆𝑇𝑃 = 𝐺𝑅 × 0.897 (1) GSTP gas normalized for standard temperature and pressure, mL GR raw gas production, mL 0.897 STP conversion factor for conditions in East Lansing, MI Each bottle’s biogas production is normalized to the control bottles that contain only filtrate and DI water using Equation 2. 𝐺𝑁 = 𝐺𝑆𝑇𝑃 − 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙1 + 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙2 + 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑜𝑙3 3 GN normalized gas production, mL Control1 biogas production from control 1, mL Control2 biogas production from control 2, mL Control3 biogas production from control 3, mL 25 (2) The VS content is calculated for the bottles based on the VS of the raw sample using Equation 3. 𝑉𝑆𝑁 = 𝑉𝑆𝑅 × 𝑆 × 1 1000 VSN volatile solids content in the bottle, mg VSR volatile solids content of the raw sample, mg/kg S mass of sample in the bottle, g 1/1000 conversion factor, kg/g (3) The biogas content of the respective bottles (BMP i) was found by using Equation 4. 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑖 = i 𝐺𝑁 𝑉𝑆𝑁 (4) bottle number The triplicate bottles are then averaged using Equation 5. 𝐵𝑀𝑃 = 𝐵𝑀𝑃1 + 𝐵𝑀𝑃2 + 𝐵𝑀𝑃3 1 × × 106 3 1000 BMP biochemical methane potential, L biogas/kg initial VS 1/1000 conversion factor, L/mL 106 conversion factor, mg/kg 26 (5) 3.6 Mass and Energy Balance Mass and energy balance analysis were carried out based on the experimental data and local environmental conditions in Detroit, MI. The analysis was conducted based on 1 kg dry raw feed. The BMP test data were used to carry out the analysis. The CH 4 production was calculated using Equation 6. 𝑀= 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑚 × 𝐺 × 16 0.082 × 𝑇 (6) M CH4 production, g methane/kg dry feed BMPm biochemical methane potential, L methane/kg initial VS G ratio of initial VS to TS in the raw feed T biogas temperature, K 16 molecular weight of methane, g/mol 0.082 gas constant, L atm/K/mol The energy balance was analyzed based on high heat value (HHV) of methane, local temperature, and thermal efficiencies of combined heat and power (CHP) unit. Energy inputs and outputs were assigned as negative and positive, respectively. The biogas was assumed to be used by a combined heat and power (CHP) unit to generate heat and electricity. The energy outputs as heat (Eheat) and electricity (Eelectricity) were calculated using Equations 7 and 8, respectively. 27 𝐸ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 = 𝑀 × 55 × 0.6 × 0.0002778 𝐸𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝑀 × 55 × 0.3 × (7) 1 3600 (8) Eheat energy output as heat, kWh-e/kg dry raw feed Eelectricity energy output as electricity, kWh-e/kg dry raw feed 55 HHV of methane, kJ/g 0.6 thermal efficiency of a typical CHP (Kurchania, Panwar, & D. Pagar, 2011) 0.3 electrical efficiency of a gas engine 1/3600 conversion factor, kWh/kJ The energy inputs for the digestion operation include heat to maintain the digestion temperature as well as electricity to power pumps, mixers, and other accessary equipment. The heat and electricity energy inputs were calculated using Equations 9 and 10, respectively. 𝑊ℎ𝑒𝑎𝑡 = 1 × 𝐶𝑝 × (308.16 − 283.16) × (1 + 10%) × 0.0002778 𝑇𝑆𝐹𝑒𝑒𝑑 𝑊𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 × 9% (9) (10) Wheat heat input, kWh-e/kg dry raw feed Welectricity electricity input, kWh-e/kg dry raw feed TSFeed TS content of the feed, % Cp specific heat capacity of the wet feed, 3.95 kJ/kg/K (Zhong et al., 2015) 308.16 digestion temperature, K 28 283.16 average atmosphere (feed) temperature in Detroit, MI, K 10% percentage of the parasitic heat to maintain digester temperature aside from heat required by the feed 9% percentage of the electricity required to power digester related equipment (SlizSzkliniarz & Vogt, 2012) 3.7 Carbon Footprint The carbon footprint analysis focused on three main sources of carbon dioxide emission: electricity usage, natural gas usage, and waste handling. Carbon dioxide equivalent emissions from electricity and natural gas usages (EPA, 2017) were calculated using the EPA methods in Equations 11 and 12, respectively. 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 = 𝐸𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 × 0.6997 (11) 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑔𝑎𝑠 = 𝐻𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 × 3600 × 50.25 × 1/106 (12) CO2e-electricity CO2 equivalent emissions from electricity (kg/year) CO2e-gas CO2 equivalent emissions from natural gas (kg/year) Electricityannual annual electricity consumption at the zoo (kWh-e/year) 0.6997 CO2 equivalent emission per kWh electricity usage (kg/kWh) (EPA, 2014) Heatannual thermal energy from natural gas consumption at the zoo (kWh-e/year) 3,600 conversion factor, kJ/kWh 50.25 CO2 equivalent emission per kJ thermal energy use, mg/kJ (EPA, 2017) 29 1/106 conversion factor, kg/mg Two waste handling processes of composting and landfill are applied in these analyses to study the impact of them on carbon footprint of the zoo. The EPA and IPCC methods (EPA, 2010b) were modified and applied to estimate CO2 equivalent emissions. The CO2 equivalent emission of the landfill was determined using Equation 13. 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙 = 21 × 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝑉𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑚 × 0.60 × 1 × 0.67 + 1000 (13) 1 × 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝑉𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × (𝐵𝑀𝑃 − 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑚 × 0.60) × 1/1000 × 1.77 CO2e-landfill CO2 equivalent landfill admission, kg/year 21 CH4 GWP 1 CO2 GWP Fwastes annual zoo waste generation (zoo mix and food waste), kg wet wastes/year VSwastes VS of wastes, kg VS/kg wet wastes 0.60 landfill gas collection efficiency (EPA, 2010a) 1/1000 conversion factor, kg/g 1.77 conversion factor of m3 to kg for CO2 0.67 conversion factor of m3 to kg CH4 The CO2 equivalent emission of the in-vessel composting was calculated using Equation 14. 30 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 21 × 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝑉𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑚 × 0.005 × 1 × 0.67 + 1000 1 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝑉𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × (𝐵𝑀𝑃 − 𝐵𝑀𝑃𝑚 × 0.005) × × 1.77 + 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 0.1 × 0.6997 1000 (14) 0.005 CH4 conversion factor for in-vessel composting (EPA, 2010b) 0.1 electricity consumption rate of composting operation (kWh/kg wet wastes) (H. Zhang & Matsuto, 2011) The implementation of anaerobic digestion with biogas power generation converts the CH4 in the biogas into CO2. The CO2 emissions from anaerobic digestion were calculated using Equation 15. 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑎𝑑 = 𝐹𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝑉𝑆𝑤𝑎𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑠 × 𝐵𝑀𝑃 × 1/1000 × 1.77 CO2e-ad (15) CO2 emissions from anaerobic digestion, kg/year The total CO2 equivalent emission of the zoo with landfill treatment of zoo wastes was calculated using Equation 16. 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑧𝑜𝑜,𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙 = 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑔𝑎𝑠 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑙𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑓𝑖𝑙𝑙 CO2e-zoo,landfill CO2 equivalent zoo emissions with landfill treatment, kg/year The total CO2 equivalent emission of the zoo with composting treatment of zoo wastes was calculated using Equation 17. 31 (16) 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑧𝑜𝑜,𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑔𝑎𝑠 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑐𝑜𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 (17) CO2e-zoo, composting CO2 equivalent zoo emissions with composting treatment, kg/year The total CO2 equivalent emission of the zoo with anaerobic digestion of zoo wastes was calculated using Equation 18. 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑧𝑜𝑜,𝑎𝑑 = 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑔𝑎𝑠 + 𝐶𝑂2𝑒−𝑎𝑑 CO2e-zoo,ad (18) CO2 equivalent zoo emissions with AD treatment, kg/year 3.8 Pilot systems design and operation and analysis Pilot systems were designed to test operational parameters of batch AD for organic waste from the DZS. High solids batch AD pilots were built based on the design parameters of the dry anaerobic digester constructed at the Detroit Zoo. The design conditions for both the DZS digester and the pilot scale digester are found in Table 2. A diagram of the pilot digester design in shown in Figure 2. A list of materials used for the construction of the small-scale pilot digesters is included in Table 3. 32 Table 2: Comparison of design conditions for Detroit Zoo digester and pilot digesters Detroit Zoo Digester Small-scale Pilot Digester Construction Material Concrete Construction Material PVC Height (m) 3.0 Height (m) 0.3 Length (m) 4.3 Radius (m) 0.08 Width (m) 3.0 Batch (kg) 9,100 Batch (kg) 1.27 Table 3: List of materials used for construction of small-scale pilot digesters Component Quantity Material Part Number a Flange socket end 1 PVC 4881K221 Flange capa 1 PVC 4881K972 a End cap 1 PVC 4880K141 a Oil-resistant Buna-N Gasket 1 Buna-N rubber 8516T243 Schedule 40 PVC pipea 1 PVC 48925K25 Barbed hose fittinga 4 brass 5346K19 Ball valvea 3 PVC 45975K28 Thick wall 0.95 cm tee fittinga 1 PVC 4596K322 a Pressure gauge 1 Brass 4026K17 Hex nipplea 3 Brass 5485K23 a Tubing 2m vinyl 5233K63 Wet tip gas meterb 1 a. ("McMaster-Carr," 2018) b. (wettipgasmeter.com, 2018) Unlike the DZS digester, the pilot systems were cylindrical in shape due to the ease and cost-effectiveness of sourcing polyvinyl chloride (PVC) piping. The body of the digester was a 0.30 m long schedule 40 PVC pipe. A PVC flange socket end was affixed on top of the digester body. An oil-resistant compressible Buna-N gasket was placed on the flange socket and a flange cap was bolted down using eight 19.05 mm bolts. A standard-wall PVC pipe fitting was affixed to the bottom of the digester. 33 (d) Tip meter (c) Filtrate wetting port port (a) Pressure gauge (b) Gas out (e)Leachate out Figure 2: Diagram of a small-scale pilot dry anaerobic digester system Three ports were drilled into the top flange to input a feeding port with a pressure gauge (Figure 2a), gas output line (Figure 2b), and filtrate wetting port (Figure 2c). The gas output line was connected to an accumulative gas flow meter (Wet Tip Gas Meter) filled with water and affixed with a counter (Figure 2d, Figure 3). Each tip corresponded to a volume of gas produced determined by calibrating the equipment. Tip meters were placed outside of the temperaturecontrolled room to minimize changes in calibration due to evaporation of water. A ball valve with an attached barb fitting was installed on the flange cap on the bottom of the digester for 34 leachate output (Figure 2e). One meter of tubing was connected to the barb fitting on the bottom and the other end was connected to a barb fitting with attached ball valve. The pilots were placed in a temperature-controlled room (temperature measured daily 37°C±1) (Figure 4). Figure 3: Tip meter connected to pilot digesters Figure 4: Pilot set-up in temperature-controlled room 35 3.8.1 Pilot monitoring Pilots were monitored each day during feedings. The time, number of tips, amount filtrate fed, air temperature and pressure was read and recorded. Leachate production was also monitored and emptied as necessary. 3.8.2 Feeding Filtrate from the MSUSCAD was used to feed the pilots. Each pilot system was run on a 60-day feeding schedule that was tapered down every two weeks with the most leachate being fed during the two weeks. Manual feedings were scheduled 4 times per day at 8 am, 10 am, 2 pm, and 4 pm. If a scheduled feeding time was missed, the digester was fed at the next scheduled feeding with both the missed amount and the new feed amount required. On average, the pilots were scheduled to be wetted 12.5 mL per day (Table 4). Table 4: Pilot feeding schedule Volume Week (mL/day) 1 20 2 20 3 16 4 16 5 10 6 10 7 4 8 4 Average 12.5 To feed the system, the required amount was drawn into a 60 mL syringe that was subsequently inserted into the barb fitting on the feed port. The ball valve to the feed port (Figure 2) was opened and the contents of the syringe were ejected into the digester. The ball valve was then closed and the syringe removed. 36 3.8.3 Leachate collection During the course of the test, the ball valve attached to the digester was left open while the ball valve on the opposite end remained closed to allow the tubing to fill with leachate. Leachate was collected each time the outlet tubing was full by closing the ball valve connected to the outlet and opening the other. The volume of leachate out was recorded by pouring the leachate into a 50 mL graduated cylinder. The leachate pH was also measured and recorded. 3.8.4 Gas Cumulative gas production was calculated using Equation 19. 𝐺𝐶 = 𝑇 ∗ 𝐶 (19) GC cumulative gas production, mL T number of tips C calibration of tip meter, mL Gas analysis was performed weekly to record CH4, CO2, and H2S. To collect a sample for GC analysis a 5 mL SGE Analytical Science syringe was used. The syringe was connected to the gas sampling port on the gas output line before the tip meter (Figure 5). Once connected, the syringe was flushed by pulling and plunging slowly three times. Three mL of sample was then drawn into the syringe and the syringe was connected to the gas chromatograph. 37 Figure 5: Gas sampling port connected to the gas outlet tubing from the small-scale pilot digesters prior to the gas entering the tip meter 3.8.5 Digestate The solid digestate was collected after the pilot systems were taken apart. TS, VS, and NREL tests were performed on the material. A sample was also sent to A&L Great Lakes Laboratories for CN testing. 3.8.6 Model Fitting A simplified model was used to describe biogas production per kg initial VS over the course of the test. The Modified Gompertz equation (Equation 20), described by Donoso-Bravo and others (2010) and Lay, Li, & Noike (1997), was fit to the pilot data for both the zoo mix and ZMF samples to estimate the performance parameters (P, Rm, and 𝞴). Duplicate data sets were used for the fitting to determine the performance parameters. 38 M = P ∗ exp(− exp ( 𝑅𝑚 ∗ e ∗ (λ − t) + 1)) P (20) P maximum biogas production, L biogas/kg initial VS Rm maximum biogas production rate, L biogas/kg initial VS/day 𝞴 lag phase time, day e Euler’s number t time, day In order to determine if the parameters could be identified the scaled sensitivity coefficients (SSCs) were calculated with the method described by Beck & Arnold (1977), using initial parameter estimates based on the data. The SSCs are representative of the sensitivity of the model to the parameters. To calculate the SSCs for a model η(x, t, β), where x and t are independent variables and β is the parameter vector, the ith sensitivity coefficient was first calculated using Equation 21 and a forward difference approximation of the first derivative. 𝑋𝑖 = 𝜕η 𝜕β𝑖 (21) It is desirable to have the SSCs be large relative to η, the dependent variable, and uncorrelated with each other. To compare the sensitivity coefficients, the sensitivity coefficients were scaled to find the SSC using Equation 22. 𝑋𝑖′ = β 𝜕η 𝜕β𝑖 (22) The parameters were then estimated using nlinfit, a MATLAB nonlinear regression algorithm using ordinary least squares. From the MATLAB analysis, the root mean square error 39 (RMSE), standard error, relative error, residuals, and confidence intervals were determined. The RMSE determined the goodness-of-fit of the data to the model and should be low relative to the scale of the model. The most accurate parameters will have the lowest relative error and largest SSC. The 95% confidence intervals were determined for each parameter. The confidence bands were plotted along with the bootstrapping confidence and prediction bands. Bootstrapping was done with the Monte Carlo method of bootstrapping the residuals. Appendix D shows the MATLAB code used to fit the data to the model and perform the statistical analysis. 40 4. CHARACTERIZATION AND BIOCHEMICAL METHANE POTENTIAL 4.1 Characteristics of animal wastes Waste samples from 28 different animals and enclosures were collected in June of 2016 for solids content characterization; results are summarized in Table 5. Results show high variability in samples, due to variation in animal types, sizes, bedding requirements, and sample content, among others. TS content of the wastes ranged from 172,354 to 915,028 mg per kg for red panda and bird mix, respectively, while VS content ranged from 146,359 to 858,617 mg per kg for veldt and bird holding, respectively. Notably, the bird samples were higher in TS and VS than other waste samples overall due to the high amount of bedding, with the bird mix having the highest TS at 915,028 mg per kg. 41 Table 5: Individual animal waste characterization Sample TS VS TS:VS Moisture Content (mg/kg) (mg/kg) (%) Aardvark 383,486 300,287 78% 61.7 a Asian Horse 411,719 303,860 74% 58.8 Barnyard 327,595 280,214 86% 67.2 Bird Breeding Penb 749,369 726,463 97% 25.1 Bear 476,297 306,339 64% 52.4 c Bird Holding 880,300 858,617 98% 12.0 d Bird Mix 915,028 660,713 72% 8.5 Bison 232,897 166,506 71% 76.7 Bush Dog 417,496 200,557 48% 58.3 Camel 273,715 240,858 88% 72.6 Eland 414,745 260,038 63% 58.5 Free Flight Aviarye 647,869 632,836 98% 35.2 Giraffe 604,873 491,643 81% 39.5 Guanaco, Rhea, Deer Mix 494,779 404,056 82% 50.5 Great Ape 262,481 226,224 86% 73.8 Kangaroo 367,322 267,121 73% 63.3 Lion 438,353 321,817 73% 56.2 f Amphibian Conservatory 330,206 305,872 93% 67.0 Ostrich 465,576 307,053 66% 53.4 Red Panda 172,354 150,744 87% 82.8 Rhino 214,342 194,642 91% 78.6 Stork, Crane 850,055 801,961 94% 15.0 Tree Kangaroo 482,850 419,043 87% 51.7 g Veldt 339,276 146,359 43% 66.1 h Warthog 215,260 176,658 82% 78.5 Watering Holei 459,696 303,850 66% 54.0 j West Pampas 413,363 373,634 90% 58.7 k Zebra 296,495 245,100 83% 70.4 a. Asian horse habitat contains Asian horse, vulture, camel, and deer. b. Bird breeding pen types of bird vary during the year. c. Bird holding types of birds vary during the year. d. Bird mix includes flamingo, vulture, golden crown, spoonbill, and stork. e. Free flight aviary contains a large variety of bird types. f. Amphibian conservatory contains a large variety of amphibian types. g. Veldt includes warthog and zebra and was collected along with bedding. h. Warthog collected without bedding. i. Watering hole contains flamingo, pelican, eland, and ostrich, among other bird types. j. West pampas includes emu and flightless birds. k. Zebra collected without bedding. 42 The total waste generation from animals at the Detroit Zoo is estimated to be 535,131 kg per year. Among these, the hoofstock animals produced approximately 508,824 kg wastes per year. The hoofstock mix was the largest portion and accounted for 95% (w/w) of the zoo animal wastes (Table 1, Figure 1a). Given this proportion, it was assumed that the hoofstock mix TS and VS content would be similar to the zoo mix. Table 6 gives the characteristics of animal wastes by category. TS and VS of the hoofstock mix (395,635 and 296,872 mg per kg) and zoo mix (397,555 and 295,159 mg per kg) were within the same range as each other. Animals wastes included in the hoofstock blend ranged from 214,342 to 604,873 mg per kg and 146,359 to 491,643 mg per kg for TS and VS, respectively. Variations in TS content were relative to the amount of bedding used, size of animal, number of animals in the habitat, and time of year the samples were collected. For example, the giraffe habitat had high TS at 604,873 mg per kg and a visual observation of the sample showed it was mostly bedding materials, while the rhino waste had relatively low TS at 214,342 mg per kg and appeared to contain very little hay and no bedding material. Visual appearance sample descriptions (i.e. primarily bedding, only manure, etc.) can be found in Appendix A. The other 5% (w/w) of the waste include the bird mix at 11,123 kg per year (2.1% w/w), carnivore at 9,412 kg per year (1.8% w/w), and primate at 5,772 kg per year (1.1%) (Table 1, Figure 1b). Characterization of the wastes indicates that among zoo wastes, the bird mix has the highest TS and VS (693,219 and 650,055 mg per kg, respectively), followed by carnivore (431,385 and 296,196 mg per kg) and hoofstock mix (397,635 and 296,872 mg per kg); primate waste has the least TS and VS (255,789 and 215,909 mg per kg) (Table 6). Carnivore had much higher NH3-N and COD concentrations than the other samples. 43 Table 6: Characteristics of animal wastes by category Sample TSa VSa (mg/kg) (mg/kg) a Carnivore 431,385±39,989 296,196±31,729 Primate 255,789±7,298 215,909±12,749 Hoofstock Mix 397,635±22,029 296,872±10,289 Bird Mix 693,219±158,271 650,055±116,185 Zoo Mix 397,555±22,786 295,159±19,696 Food Waste 327,084±72,973 274,839±27,144 ZMF 362,493±17,811 275,729±13,693 a. Data are average with standard deviation. b. Data are average with standard error. C:Nb pH 12±0 14±1 30±4 27±6 26±9 14±5 26±3 8.14 8.23 8.81 6.96 8.64 4.17 8.41 NH3-N (mg/kg) COD (mg/kg) 2,773 332 414 265 401 540 550 426,250 274,875 151,500 152,500 262,000 343,000 264,500 Elemental analysis was conducted to evaluate the CN ratio, NH3, and COD. Data summarized in Table 6 present that bird and hoofstock mixtures have much higher CN ratios (27:1 and 30:1, respectively) than carnivore and primate (12:1 and 14:1, respectively). This indicates that carnivore and primate waste would likely need to be codigested with a high carbon source to increase the efficiency of digestion and reduce risk of ammonia inhibition (Yadvika et al., 2004). Additionally, the carnivore waste was very high in NH3-N at 2,773 mg per kg indicating that if used as a mono-substrate, there could be a chance for ammonia toxicity (Crook & Gould, 2009). Hoofstock and bird mixtures with high C:N ratio mixed with low CN ratio carnivore and primate wastes resulted in the CN ratio of zoo mix (26:1) being in the optimal CN ratio range (of 20:1 to 30:1) for anaerobic digestion (Crook & Gould, 2009). Considering available food waste, the zoo mix and food waste at a ratio of 90:10 was considered as another feed combination for anaerobic digestion (Figure 1d). The ZMF has slightly less TS and VS (362,493 and 275,729 mg per kg), and similar CN ratio (26:1) compared to the zoo mix (Table 6). 44 pH of the zoo samples was in the 8.00-9.00 range with the exception of the bird mix (6.96) (Table 6). Food waste had the lowest pH at 4.17. This indicates that food waste would not do well as a mono substrate for the stability of the system given that a low pH can hinder stability in the system and inhibit the production of methane. 4.2 BMP Test Seven samples (carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, bird mix, zoo mix, food waste, and ZMF) were tested along with the inoculum control in three separate BMP trials, with the exception of just two BMP trials run for primate. Each BMP sample was tested in triplicate with the exception of lost data points from laboratory error (breaking a serum bottle). The number of bottles (n) were averaged together to obtain results. Additional BMP data is located in Appendix B. 4.2.1 Pre and post-digestion characterization Pre and post-digestion characterization was carried out to determine the anaerobic biodegradability of the samples. Table 7 contains the pre and post-digestion TS content, the TS reduction, and the percent reduction. Initial TS for all runs was approximately 10,000 mg per kg, except the control run of the seed at approximately 8,000 mg per kg. Each of the samples had a higher TS percent reduction than the seed. This was due to the higher amount of total solids, and that there were more easily degradable compounds in fresh feedstocks, opposed to previously digested material. The food waste sample achieved the highest percentage reduction (33%) followed by the zoo mix and ZMF samples (27% and 26%, respectively). 45 Table 7: Pre and post-digestion TS content in BMP bottles Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Reduction Reduction Average ± Std. Dev. Average ± Std. Dev. (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L) (%) Seed Carnivore Primate Hoofstock Mix Bird Mix Zoo Mix Food Waste ZMF 7,927±738 10,716±1,741 10,786±1,694 9,916±579 9,485±762 9,838±967 10,067±1,458 10,489±1,206 6,258±561 8,122±944 8,094±937 7,567±463 7,115±496 7,141±564 6,758±738 7,807±666 1,669 2,593 2,691 2,349 2,370 2,698 3,310 2,682 21% 24% 25% 24% 25% 27% 33% 26% n 9 9 5 8 9 9 9 8 Table 8 contains the pre and post-digestion VS content, the mass of VS reduced, and the percent reduction. Similar to TS reduction, food waste had the highest VS reduction percent (43%), while the hoofstock mix was the lowest. Table 8: Pre and post-digestion VS content in BMP bottles Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Reduction Reduction Average ± Std. Dev. Average ± Std. Dev. (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L) (%) Seed Carnivore Primate Hoofstock Mix Bird Mix Zoo Mix Food Waste ZMF 5,599±542 7,717±437 8,042±1,190 7,154±972 7,044±824 7,200±695 7,594±411 7,669±543 4,019±274 5,037±250 5,279±609 4,943±765 4,761±368 4,713±464 4,315±733 5,112±596 1,581 2,680 2,763 2,211 2,283 2,487 3,279 2,557 28% 35% 34% 31% 32% 35% 43% 33% n 9 9 5 8 9 9 9 8 Table 9 summarizes the pre and post-digestion COD characteristics and the percent reduction. Again, food waste had the greatest percent reduction indicating it is the most readily biodegradable. 46 Table 9: Pre and post-digestion chemical oxygen demand in BMP bottles Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Reduction Reduction Average ± Std. Dev. Average ± Std. Dev. (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L) (%) Seed Carnivore Primate Hoofstock Mix Bird Mix Zoo Mix Food Waste ZMF 10,122±1,780 13,500±1,963 13,500±1,671 12,688±1,339 10,789±1,673 11,383±1,698 13,256±1,830 10,900±1,359 7,033±472 8,067±990 8,580±428 7,444±916 6,806±476 7,350±775 7,106±848 8,450±1,269 3,089 5,433 4,920 5,244 3,983 4,033 6,150 2,450 31% 40% 36% 41% 37% 35% 46% 22% n 9 9 5 8 9 9 9 8 Table 10 contains the pre and post-digestion ammonia-nitrogen in the BMP test and the percentage increase. The hoofstock mix had the highest increase in NH 3-N at 61%. Given that all of the post-digestion pH levels are above 7.00 and the pre and post-digestion values are below the level of ammonia toxicity (3,000 mg per L), the digestion process will not be inhibited due to ammonia concentration (Crook & Gould, 2009). Table 10: Pre and post-digestion ammonia-nitrogen in BMP bottles Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Accumulated Average ± Std. Average ± Std. Dev. Dev. (mg/L) (mg/L) (mg/L) Seed 464±247 675±168 210 Carnivore 493±305 772±175 278 Primate 651±134 709±180 58 Hoofstock Mix 473±231 759±246 286 Bird Mix 475±300 609±153 134 Zoo Mix 460±265 692±325 232 Food Waste 504±272 638±230 134 ZMF 505±275 768±238 263 Increase (%) 45% 56% 9% 61% 28% 50% 27% 52% Figure 6 summarizes the percent reduction of TS, VS, and COD, and increase in NH 3-N. 47 n 9 9 5 8 9 9 9 8 80 Reduction (%) 60 TS VS COD NH3-N 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Seed Carnivore Primate Hoofstock Bird Mix Zoo Mix Mix Food Waste ZMF Figure 6: Reduction of TS, VS, COD, and increase NH3-N during the BMP testing Table 11 contains the pre and post-digestion pH characteristics and difference after digestion. All post-digestion samples pH were in the optimal range for anaerobic digestion indicating a stable environment during the BMP test (Liu et al., 2008). Table 11: Pre and post-digestion pH in BMP bottles Pre-digestion Post-digestion Difference Sample Seed 8.13 7.46 -0.66 Carnivore 7.99 7.32 -0.67 Primate 8.03 7.45 -0.57 Hoofstock Mix 8.02 7.32 -0.70 Bird Mix 8.04 7.46 -0.58 Zoo Mix 8.08 7.32 -0.76 Food Waste 7.79 7.33 -0.46 ZMF 8.17 7.28 -0.89 n 9 9 5 8 9 9 9 8 Average cumulative biogas production data from the BMP test show that during the 30 days test, carnivore, primate, hoofstock mix, bird mix, zoo mix, food waste, and ZMF generated 339, 438, 272, 275, 318, 472, and 343 mL biogas, respectively (Figure 7, Table 12). Food waste and primate had the highest cumulative biogas production (472 and 438 mL biogas) among all samples. As for reduction of TS, VS, COD, and NH3-N, food waste had significantly higher TS, 48 VS, COD reduction (33%, 43%, and 46%, respectively) than other samples, while hoofstock mix had highest NH3-N accumulation (61%) among all samples (Figure 6). Average Cumulative Biogas Production (mL) 500 Seed Carnivore Primate Hoofstock Mix Bird Mix Zoo Mix Food Zoo Mix & Food Waste 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Time (day) Figure 7: Average cumulative biogas production from BMP testing Table 12: Total average cumulative biogas production from 30-day BMP test Sample Average Cumulative Gas Production (mL biogas) Seed 236±79 Carnivore 339±14 Primate 438±63 Hoofstock Mix 272±25 Bird Mix 275±81 Zoo Mix 318±69 Food 472±25 ZMF 343±60 Biogas production and VS reduction were used to evaluate the digestion performance of individual samples and mixes. Primate and food waste again had highest BMP of 622 and 653 L 49 biogas per kg initial VS, respectively, among all samples (Table 13). Even though carnivore and primate samples yielded the highest biogas production, their available quantities only make up 3% of the overall zoo mix. The hoofstock mix as the largest waste of the overall zoo mix had a BMP of 269 L biogas per kg initial VS. The BMP of the hoofstock mix is in the same range with other hoofstock animal BMP results (Kafle & Chen, 2016). Since hoofstock mix is the major composition of the zoo mix, BMP of the zoo mix (232 L biogas per kg initial VS) was not significantly different from the hoofstock mix (269 L biogas per kg initial VS) (Table 13). Table 13: Biochemical methane potential of zoo wastes a, b Sample BMP Average Maximum BMPm (n) (L biogas/ methane methane (L methane/ kg initial (%) (%) kg initial VS) VS) Carnivore 501±22 56 68 280±41 9 Primate 622±42 60 70 374±3 5 Hoofstock Mix 269±44 61 71 164±36 8 Bird Mix 117±75 58 71 69±46 9 Zoo Mix 232±43 59 71 137±27 9 Food Waste 653±138 63 73 411±109 9 ZMF 302±40 60 71 183±33 8 a. All data are average with standard deviation. b. The BMP values were corrected for the methane produced by the seed in the mixture. In addition, the results of cumulative biogas and BMP clearly demonstrate that food waste addition improved digestion performance and increased biogas production. The mixture of 90% (w/w) zoo mix and 10% (w/w) food waste had a BMP of 302 L biogas per kg initial VS, which is 30% more than zoo mix alone (232 L biogas per kg initial VS). The samples all yielded similar average CH4 percentages. Considering both BMP and available quantities of above tested samples, zoo mix and ZMF were selected to run mass and energy balance in the following section. 50 4.3 Theoretical Mass and Energy Balance and Carbon Footprint The mass and energy balance was conducted to compare the digestion performance with zoo mix and ZMF (Table 14). Although the zoo digester is a high-solids dry digestion system, a completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) was assumed as the digester for theoretical analysis given that the BMP data are representative of wet digestion systems. TS Feed and retention time were set at 15% and 30 days, respectively. Using data from BMP (Table 13), the CH4 production of zoo mix and ZMF were calculated to be 22 and 29 g per kg dry feed, respectively. Based on the amount of CH4 generated and local environmental condition, the energy balance analysis concluded that with implementation of a CHP unit, net electricity outputs of zoo mix and ZMF were 0.09 and 0.12 kWh-e per kg dry feed, respectively, and corresponding net heat outputs were 0.01 and 0.07 kWh-e per kg dry feed. Due to the relatively low annual average temperature in Detroit (10°C), thermal energy requirements to heat the feed and maintain the digester temperature were considerably high. The energy generation efficiencies (net energy output per CH4 energy × 100) were 29% and 42% for zoo mix and ZMF, respectively. Even though the energy generation efficiencies were relatively low, both feeds showed the positive efficiencies. Particularly, the addition of food waste is able to increase the gas production and improve the energy generation efficiency. Based on the mass and energy balance data (Table 14), anaerobic digestion of 535,131 wet kg per year animal waste from DZS can produce 4,847 kg CH4 per year, and corresponding net heat and electricity outputs are 1,034 kWh-e and 20,219 kWh-e, respectively. With addition of food wastes (ZMF ratio of 90:10), the CH4 production, net heat, and electricity outputs were increased to 6,835 kg, 15,344 kWh-e, and 28,510 kWh-e per year, respectively. It has been 51 reported that average electricity and heat demands of zoo are 553 kWh-e and 1,012 kWh-e per animal per year, respectively (Kusch, 2012). DZS has approximately 2,000 animals, and correspondingly requires 1,106,000 and 2,024,000 kWh-e per year of electricity and heat, respectively for the animal operations. The energy produced from anaerobic digestion of ZMF can contribute 1.4% of the total energy demand of the zoo animal operations. Table 14: Theoretical mass and energy balance of anaerobic digestion of zoo wastes Zoo mix ZMF Mass balance Methane production (M, g/kg dry feed) a 22.47 29.06 Heat input (Wheat, kWh-e/kg dry feed) c -0.20 -0.20 Electricity input (Welectricity, kWh-e/kg dry feed) d -0.01 -0.01 Energy output as heat (Eheat, kWh-e/kg dry feed) e 0.21 0.27 Energy output as electricity (Eelectricity, kWh-e/kg dry feed) f 0.10 0.13 Net heat output (kWh-e/kg dry feed) g 0.01 0.07 Net electricity output (kWh-e/kg dry feed) h 0.09 0.12 Energy balance b Net energy output a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. Eq. 1 was used to calculate the methane production. Negative numbers mean energy inputs, and positive numbers mean energy outputs. Eq. 4 was used to calculate the heat input. Eq. 5 was used to calculate the electricity input. Eq. 2 was used to calculate the energy output as heat. Eq. 3 was used to calculate the energy output as electricity. The net heat output = Eheat - Wheat The net electricity output = Eelectricity - Welectricity Even though the energy generation from anaerobic digestion only contributes a small portion to the total zoo energy demand, containing zoo wastes has a significant impact on reducing carbon footprint of the zoo (Figure 8). The total CO2 emission of the zoo with landfill 52 as the waste treatment was 1,450,000 kg CO2-e per year with 53%, 25%, and 21% of the emission from electricity use, heat use, and waste treatment. With implementation of anaerobic digestion, the total CO2 emission of the zoo was reduced to 1,210,000 kg CO2-e per year with only 7% of the emission from the waste treatment, which are 16% lower than the emission with landfill (1,450,000 kg CO2-e per year with 21% of the emission from the waste treatment), as well as lower than the emission with composting (1,270,000 CO 2-e per year with 10% of the emission from the waste treatment). Figure 8: Carbon footprint of zoo with different waste treatment processes 53 5. PILOT TESTING AND FITTING A MODEL TO DATA FOR DETERMINATION OF DIGESTER PERFORMANCE PARAMETERS 5.1 Purpose Given the limited information on anaerobic digestion of zoo organic wastes and dry digestion systems, it was necessary to test the anaerobic biodegradability. BMP testing, discussed in Chapter 4, is a standard parameter for which to compare different feedstocks with one another and is done in a batch, wet anaerobic digestion condition. Dry, batch, anaerobic digesters were constructed to allow for analysis of zoo organic wastes in dry anaerobic digestion conditions. By fitting a model to the pilot data, performance parameters can be determined and decisions can be made to improve operations to increase digestion and gas production in the commercial-scale system. 5.2 Results and discussion The zoo mix and ZMF mixture, collected in October 2017, were tested in duplicate in batch anaerobic digesters. Neither mixture included carnivore nor primate wastes because they are not being utilized for the commercial-scale system. This is due to concerns with parasites in the effluent, and their relatively small contribution (less than 3% of total, Table 1) to the overall waste generation. 5.2.1 Characterization Pre and post-digestion characteristics were analyzed to determine the biodegradability of the material in the pilot digester. Table 15 shows the pre and post digestion TS characterization mass reduced, and the percent reduction of TS. The zoo mix samples had a higher total solids content (569,776 mg per kg) than the ZMF (420,690 mg per kg), and a higher average percent 54 reduction (48% and 41% for zoo mix and ZMF, respectively) in TS over all, which corresponds to the higher gas production seen in those samples. Table 15: Pre and post-digestion total solids content in pilot digesters Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Reduction Reduction (mg/kg) (mg/kg) (mg/kg) (%) Zoo Mix (1) 569,776 320,128 276,648 44 Zoo Mix (2) 569,776 273,399 323,377 52 ZMF (1) 420,690 222,629 198,061 47 ZMF (2) 420,690 278,240 142,450 34 Table 16 shows the pre and post-digestion VS characteristics for the pilot digesters. Like the TS, the zoo mix pilots saw the greatest reduction in volatile solids with zoo mix ranging from 50 to 55% and ZMF ranging from 32 to 48%. As volatile solids are converted into volatile fatty acids and then used by methanogens to produce gas, the higher VS percent reduction corresponds with a higher level of gas production and enhanced digestion. Table 16: Pre and post-digestion volatile solids in pilot digesters Sample Pre-digestion Post-digestion Reduction (mg/kg) (mg/kg) (mg/kg) Zoo Mix (1) 295,864 147,847 148,017 Zoo Mix (2) 295,864 133,749 162,115 ZMF (1) 260,865 136,686 124,179 ZMF (2) 260,865 177,869 82,996 Reduction (%) 50 55 48 32 Table 17 shows the CN ratios for pre and post-digestion. The ZMF sample had a lower CN ratio than the zoo mix, but both samples are in or close to the optimal range for digestion. Table 17: Pre and post-digestion carbon-nitrogen ratio Sample Pre-digestion Zoo Mix (1) 31.2 Zoo Mix (2) 31.2 ZMF (1) 27.1 ZMF (2) 27.1 55 5.2.2 Gas Production The leachate began discharge from the pilot much earlier in the ZMF pilots with leachate production beginning around day 15, as opposed to day 20 for the zoo mix samples. Table 18 shows the cumulative volume of leachate collected from each of the pilots with 158.3, 99.6, 235.6, and 260.1 mL of leachate produced during the test for the zoo mix (1), zoo mix (2), ZMF (1), and ZMF (2), respectively. On average, the ZMF pilots leached nearly 119 mL more than the zoo mix sample over the course of the test. Table 18: Pilot digester leachate volume and pH Sample Cumulative Volume (mL) Zoo Mix (1) 158.3 Zoo Mix (2) 99.6 Average Zoo Mix 129.0 ZMF (1) 235.6 ZMF (2) 260.1 Average ZMF 247.9 Figure 9 shows the cumulative biogas production from each of the pilot digesters. The zoo mix samples showed a higher cumulative gas production than the food waste, and the duplicate points were much closer to each other. Given the trend found in the BMP results where the food waste increased production, it is clear that there was an inhibitory effect of the food waste in the pilot digesters, which was not seen in the BMP results. A t-test of the total cumulative gas production showed that the zoo mix and ZMF results were significantly different. 56 Figure 9: Cumulative biogas production from each pilot digester The conditions of the digesters were measured by analyzing the leachate production pH over the course of the test and determining the volume leaching from the cells. Figure 10 shows the pH content over time for each sample collected. The data indicates that the ZMF digesters have a clearly lower pH than the zoo mix digesters. By day 25, the pH reached above 7.00, but it is clear there was an inhibitory effect of the pH on the gas production, and the microbes did not recover. One study performed on the influence of pH and moisture content in high-solids digestion found that in a digester with a pH lower than 6.1 or higher than 8.3, failure can occur (Lay et al., 1997). For the ZMF samples, both digesters were at or near (6.04 and 6.38 for ZMF 1 and 2, respectively) this critical threshold, and do not reach above 8.00 until between days 30 and 40. While this shows there may be some recovery of the stability, the inhibitory effect of the low beginning pH still produced a lower gas production overall. 57 Figure 10: Leachate pH as collected in 60 day period This indicates that the added filtrate may not have the buffering capacity to maintain the pH in the system with the addition of low pH food waste. More leachate will need to be recirculated in the beginning of the test or a buffer will need to be added in order to increase the pH and maintain the system stability. A study that looked at the effect of pH on high solids anaerobic digestion of food waste set up four samples (untreated, pH 7, pH 8, and pH 9) concluded that pH 8 reached the maximum methane yield, 7.57 times higher than the untreated sample (Yang et al., 2015). Figure 10 shows that after day 30, where there was an increase in the pH for ZMF (1), there is also an increase in the rate of gas production (Figure 11). ZMF (2) did not reach above 8.00 until day 40, and the rate of production remained relatively constant until the end of the test. This can also be seen in the cumulative gas production (Figure 9), where the difference in cumulative production for each sample diverges more drastically after that point and gas production does not recover in ZMF 2. 58 Figure 11: Rate of gas production during pilot testing Table 19 summarizes the total biogas per initial VS produced on day 30, and on day 50. The results show that on day 30, there was 192, 209, 131, and 80 L biogas per kg VS produced for zoo mix 1, zoo mix 2, ZMF 1, and ZMF 2, respectively. In all pilots, aside from zoo mix and food waste 1, the majority of gas production occurs in the first 30 days. Due to the pH and rate of gas production, ZMF 1 produces the majority of its gas after day 30. Given that on average, the majority of gas production occurs in the first 30 days of the test, in scale-up to a commercial system it may not be worth running the batches for longer than 30 days, but this operational parameter would also be dependent on the goals of the project. 59 Table 19: Biogas production at day 30 and day 50 of pilot test Sample Day 30 Biogas Day 50 Biogas Production Production (L biogas/ (L biogas/ kg initial VS) kg initial VS) Zoo Mix (1) 192 226 Zoo Mix (2) 209 260 Average 201 243 ZMF (1) 131 210 ZMF (2) 80 96 Average 106 153 Increase (%) 18 24 21 60 20 40 5.2.3 Gas chromatography analysis Gas chromatography was performed on the samples typically once per week from each of the digesters. The maximum and average CH4 values are given in Figure 12. In both the zoo mix and the ZMF pilots, the digesters reached around 50% methane around day 13 and remained relatively constant (45-55%) until the end of the test. Figure 12: Pilot methane content from gas chromatography analysis 60 5.3 Fitting the pilot data to a simplified anaerobic digestion model A simplified practical model was fit to the in order to determine performance parameters from the zoo mix and ZMF pilot data. Using the Modified Gompertz equation (Equation 20), described by Donoso-Bravo and others (2010) and Lay, Li, & Noike (1997), the model was fitted to determine the following parameters: maximum biogas production (P, L biogas/kg initial VS), maximum rate of biogas production (Rm, L/kg initial VS*day), and the lag phase time (𝞴, day) (Donoso-Bravo et al., 2010; Lay et al., 1997). To determine if the parameters could be adequately identified, the scaled sensitivity coefficients (SSC) were calculated using initial parameter estimates and the averaged pilot data for the zoo mix and ZMF samples. A large (>10% of the total scale) and uncorrelated SSC will provide the most accurate estimate results. Figures 13a and 13b show the SSCs for the zoo mix and ZMF models, respectively. Since the SSCs were large, and uncorrelated, the parameters could be individually identified. The zoo mix SSCs show that parameter P is the largest relative to the scale and will have the lowest relative error. It is also clear that it takes a longer experimental time to estimate P, likely more than 30 days, whereas R m and 𝞴 can be estimated after a shorter time. The ZMF SSCs show that parameter Rm is the largest and will have the lowest relative error. Parameter P (Figure 13b) is small until after day 40, so the experiment needs at least 40 days to accurately estimate P. 61 (a) Zoo Mix (b) ZMF Figure 13: Scaled sensitivity coefficients Sequential analysis determines the parameter response as more data are introduced over time. Sequential estimation is important to determine the amount of time the experiment needs to run for accurate determination of the parameters. Figures 14a and 14b show the sequential analysis of the zoo mix and ZMF models, respectively. It is clear from the sequential plots that 62 the parameters are more accurately estimated for the zoo mix and variation is decreased as new data are introduced over time. The zoo mix sequential parameters converge around day 20, so future experiments will need at least 20 days for accurate parameter estimation, and more than 35 days will yield the most accurate results. This validates the preliminary analysis of the SSC plots. The ZMF SSCs take longer to converge. While some convergence can be seen after day 50, the ZMF samples may need additional time to more accurately estimate the parameters. This is likely due to the divergence of the two sets of data and will be more accurately estimated with additional data points. 63 (a) Zoo Mix (b) ZMF Figure 14: Normalized sequential parameter Table 20 provides the parameter estimation and results of the statistical analysis. In comparing the model fitting, the zoo mix data has a better fit than the ZMF data. This is due to the higher variance in the ZMF data. The relative errors of the parameters for the zoo mix, 0.56, 0.75, 1.68% for parameters P, Rm, and 𝞴, respectively, were much lower than those for the ZMF, 64 11.4, 3.8, and 12.6, for P, Rm, and 𝞴, respectively. It is expected, given the trend of the ZMF data, that the lag time would be most accurately estimated, given that the variance increases as the time increases, and the lag time concerns only the beginning of the digestion time. The zoo mix has a low RMSE (<5% of total scale), indicating a good fit of the model to the data. The ZMF also has a low RMSE relative to the scale (<10% of total scale). The parameter estimates show a higher maximum gas production (P) and maximum gas production rate (Rm) in the zoo mix, which was also indicated in the cumulative biogas results. The lag phase for both systems was similar at 7.1 and 7.5 days for zoo mix and ZMF, respectively. 65 Table 20: Parameter estimation and result of statistical analysis Sample Parameter Estimate Relative 95% Mean of Error Confidence Residuals (%) Intervals 339.6 0.56 (335.8, 343.3) P Zoo Mix Rm 9.0 0.75 (8.9, 9.1) -0.03 7.1 1.68 (6.9,7.4) 𝞴 291.8 11.4 (226.1,357.5) P ZMF 4.8 3.8 (4.4, 5.1) 0.14 Rm 7.5 12.6 (5.7, 9.4) 𝞴 66 RMSE Maximum Correlation Coefficient 5.61 0.84 25.09 0.79 Further analysis of the residuals shows a signature or serial correlation in the results. This non-random pattern can indicate that there may be some variable missing from the model or there is a missing interaction between terms already in the model. Another possibility is that it is necessary to use different analysis technique that accounts for the serial correlation in the residuals. Figures 20a and 20b show the observed data and model with the asymptotic confidence and prediction bands, and the bootstrapping confidence and prediction bands. The bootstrapping bands provide a slightly narrower range than the asymptotic bands. The zoo mix shows very narrow banding, with much of the data fitting within the bootstrapping and asymptotic confidence bands, indicating a good fit. The ZMF show much wider prediction bands, with only some of the data fitting within the confidence bands, indicating a worse fit. 67 (a) Zoo Mix (b) ZMF Figure 15: Model plotted with confidence and prediction bands 5.4 Scale-up and future considerations Using this model in scale-up for a commercial system could improve design parameters and operational conditions. It is necessary to further the research under several operating conditions to develop more robust parameter estimates. The operating conditions that can be 68 varied include leachate recirculation rate, temperature, in addition to varying the feedstocks used. Varying the leachate recirculation cycle will likely result in different parameter estimates for the zoo blend & food waste samples as it will influence the pH of the system. Additionally, future work may consider a more complex model that accounts for more of the variables in the system. In considering the design of a high-solids anaerobic digester at a zoo, this model could help to determine key design aspects. The maximum biogas production could help in determining the generator size and amount of material needed for desired gas production. The maximum biogas production rate could help in sizing the gas storage or gas bladder and help in estimating maximum generator runtime. 69 6. OVERALL CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 6.1 Waste characterization and biochemical methane potential testing The TS and VS content of the individual wastes and waste mixes were variable, with the bird samples having the highest TS content. Animal habitat bedding appears to be the primary driver in differences in solids and moisture content, with habitats using more bedding have higher solids content and lower moisture levels. Given that the zoo uses more bedding in the winter months and with new animal births, these results will likely vary throughout the year and additional data points will likely show this variance. The BMP test of zoo wastes and waste mixes showed that all zoo wastes are anaerobically biodegradable. The BMP results for the hoofstock mixture (269±44 L biogas per kg initial VS), and the zoo mixture (232±43 L biogas per kg initial VS), were similar, given that the zoo mixture contained 95% hoofstock mixture. Published data for domestic livestock showed biogas production were in the range of 222 to 584 L biogas per kg VS. Carnivore and primate wastes had a much higher BMP, however they account for less than 3% of the total waste production from the zoo. This is likely because the samples contained more readily digestible material with higher energy content than samples containing lower energy content such as bedding and hay. Mixing 10% of food waste with the zoo mix led to 30% increase on biogas production. Food waste achieved the highest TS, VS, and COD reduction, indicating that it is the most anaerobically biodegradable sample. Given solely the results of the BMP test, food waste will improve biogas production and increase the capacity for renewable energy generation and greenhouse gas reduction. 70 Mass and energy balances indicate that biogas from the anaerobic digestion of zoo wastes at the Detroit Zoo only replaces a small amount of fossil-based energy, though, the carbon footprint analysis indicated that 16% reduction of CO2 emission was achieved. The results concluded that anaerobic digestion is an appropriate solution to manage zoo wastes, significantly reduce carbon footprint of the zoo, and generate renewable energy. 6.2 Pilot data and model fitting 6.2.1 Physical results Pilot testing was able to achieve cumulative biogas production, on average, of 244 and 153 L biogas per kg initial VS for zoo mix and ZMF samples, on day 50. The zoo mix samples showed the highest TS and VS percent reduction. However, the results contradicted the BMP results, as the zoo mix yielded 90 L biogas per kg VS more than the ZMF in the pilot testing at day 50. The inhibition of gas production in the ZMF pilots was shown in the low pH of the system, with the pH remaining between 6.00 and 7.78 in the ZMF pilots during the first 30 days, while the zoo mix pH was between 8.08 and 8.37 in the zoo mix. This indicates that it is necessary to increase the buffering capacity of the system in the beginning of the digestion process to maintain the pH in the acceptable range for optimal digestion. This could be done by increasing the amount of leachate sprayed onto the system or controlling the leachate pH by adding a buffering solution. Another possibility is to add a system to anaerobically digest the leachate in order to stabilize the pH through a microbial process. The effect of the pH was not seen in the BMP results due to the amount of filtrate in the system (20% filtrate in the bottle) that provided the buffering capacity to accommodate the low pH of the food waste. 71 Zoo mix (1) and zoo mix (2) rate of gas production decreased after days 35 and 36, respectively, indicating that a commercial-scale retention time of over 35 days will reach the maximum gas production. The ZMF samples saw their rates of production later in the time with ZMF (1) and zoo mix and food waste (2) reaching their maximum production rates after 43 and 49 days, respectively. The lag in achieving the maximum biogas production rate was the length of time it took for the pH to stabilize. 6.2.2 Modeling The model developed from the Modified Gompertz equation (Equation 20) was able to predict performance parameters in a commercial scale digester, given the fit of the pilot data. The zoo mix fit the model better than the ZMF data. The SSCs of the parameters were determined to be large an uncorrelated, which indicated that the parameters could be estimated with low relative error. These results were confirmed by the low relative errors of the parameters (Table 20), which indicates a good parameter estimation. Results of sequential analysis indicates that the parameters could be estimated after day 20 for zoo mix and after day 50 for zoo mix and food waste. Future testing could shorten the length of the test and still accurately estimate model parameters. Statistical analysis shows that there is a signature in the residuals, which does not meet the standard statistical assumptions required to run ordinary least squares. This means either that a parameter apparent in the biology of the digestion is not being accounted for in the model or that a different residual analysis may be necessary to account for the serial correlation. The model can be applied to commercial-scale design and operations. Given a known amount of zoological organic waste and using the characterization provided in this study, biogas production per kg initial VS can be estimated at a given time. This can aid in digester design to determine sizing for both the generator and chamber. The lag phase time can be used to assess 72 system performance and determine when gas production will ramp up. The maximum gas production rate can be used to determine design parameters for the gas storage tank or bladder, in addition to generator size and runtime. Additionally, given the BMP finding that the zoo mix will behave similarly to other hoofstock animals, the model could be broadly applied to zoos with a similar percentage of hoofstock animals, regardless of the specific animal species percentage, to aid in digester design. 6.3 Future work Given the limited data available on anaerobic digestion of zoological organic waste, many future design considerations could improve the knowledge gap that currently exists. BMP testing could be performed on individual animal wastes to provide data that are more robust and more accurately define the biogas potential ranges at zoos. Individual animal waste feedstocks could also be analyzed for other parameters such as pH, COD, NH3-N, and CN ratio to continue to improve the research. There is currently a concern that primate and carnivore wastes may continue to harbor transmittable pathogens post-digestion and composting. Given the high BMP results from both of these substrates, future data should look at pathogen reduction in both anaerobic digestion and composting. This could be especially useful in zoos that have a high percentage of primate and carnivore animals. Given the simplicity of the model, there are many improvements that could be made, and future work should look at comparing other models in addition to the Modified Gompertz Equation, such as those described by Donoso-Bravo and others (2010), or other more complex models. Additional research on pilot digestion could enhance the robustness of the model. Potential improvements could be to test additional zoo feedstocks (primate, carnivore, hoofstock, bird, varying food waste percentages, etc.) to provide a range of parameter values for zoos to 73 more accurately apply the model to various zoo conditions. The leachate recirculation schedules can also be tested to optimize operations and improve digestion of the ZMF sample. Additionally, pilot data and the simplified model should be used for comparison against commercial-scale data to determine validity of the model. 74 APPENDICES 75 Appendix A: Visual description of zoo samples This appendix gives information on the visual description of collected zoo samples. Table 21: Visual description of zoo samples Animal Type Description Aardvark Mix of leaves, bedding, manure Stork, Crane Primarily bedding, hay, pellets Kangaroo Mix of bedding, hay, manure Tree Kangaroo Primarily bedding, leaves, twigs Bison Only manure Rhino Primarily manure, some hay Camel Primarily manure, some hay Amphibian Conservatory Primarily leaves, tree, dirt Red Panda Small amount of bedding Great Ape Only manure Zebra Only manure Giraffe 2 Lots of bedding, leaves Asian Horse Mix of hay, variety of manure Watering Hole Primarily sticks, bedding, leaves Veldt Mix of hay, variety of manure Lion Only manure Bush Dog Only manure Barnyard 2 Mix of hay, variety of manure Eland Primarily manure, some sticks, leaves Guanaco, Rhea, Deer Mix Mix of manure, sticks, hay, bedding Free Flight Aviary Primarily bedding West Pampas Primarily bedding Bird Breeding Pen Primarily bedding, hay, pellets Ostrich Primarily hay Bird Holding Primarily bedding, hay Bird Mix 1 Primarily bedding, hay Bird Mix 2 Primarily bedding, leaves, hay Bear Only manure Warthog Only manure 76 Appendix B: Additional BMP data This appendix provides additional BMP data (raw, pre, and post-digestion analyses) for individual triplicate samples. A1. Round 1 BMP Table 22: BMP round 1 raw characterization Sample TS VS (mg/kg) (mg/kg) Filtrate 35,025 24,278 Carnivore 459,786 288,187 Primate 250,628 206,894 Hoofstock Mix 413,212 302,812 Bird Mix 805,134 717,134 Zoo Mix 421,279 317,902 Food Waste 275,485 259,168 ZMF 375,088 283,635 77 TS (%) 3.5 46.0 25.1 41.3 80.5 42.1 27.5 37.5 VS TS:VS (%) 2.4 69% 28.8 63% 20.7 83% 30.3 73% 71.7 89% 31.8 75% 25.9 94% 28.4 76% Table 23: Round 1 BMP pre-digestion data Sample pH TS VS (mg/L) (mg/L) Seed 1 8.22 7,132 5,020 Seed 2 8.29 7,263 5,122 Seed 3 8.32 6,582 4,685 Carnivore 1 8.19 10,352 7,362 Carnivore 2 8.23 9,937 7,188 Carnivore 3 8.22 10,130 7,265 Primate 1 Primate 2 8.2 10,170 7,520 Primate 3 7.99 9,657 7,432 Hoofstock Mix 1 8.21 9,817 7,083 Hoofstock Mix 2 8.23 9,678 6,965 Hoofstock Mix 3 Bird Mix 1 8.25 9,325 7,058 Bird Mix 2 8.15 8,645 6,488 Bird Mix 3 8.3 8,165 5,907 Zoo Mix 1 8.19 9,625 7,110 Zoo Mix 2 8.24 9,657 6,947 Zoo Mix 3 8.21 9,452 6,882 Food Waste 1 7.9 9,435 7,213 Food Waste 2 7.91 9,167 6,935 Food Waste 3 8.05 9,552 7,223 ZMF 1 8.27 10,002 7,313 ZMF 2 8.29 10,178 7,445 ZMF 3 8.28 9,697 7,080 78 COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 10,850 675 7,750 685 6,900 666 11,800 735 12,700 753 11,500 801 11,650 11,800 11,000 11,550 818 768 680 686 8,900 8,500 9,200 9,750 9,000 9,500 11,050 10,250 12,000 9,850 10,050 8,850 683 673 692 690 681 669 738 787 758 708 688 691 Table 24: Round 1 BMP post-digestion data Sample pH TS VS (mg/L) (mg/L) Seed 1 7.58 6,082 4,140 Seed 2 7.59 5,945 3,915 Seed 3 7.62 6,055 3,988 Carnivore 1 7.33 8,153 5,065 Carnivore 2 7.40 7,952 4,972 Carnivore 3 7.40 8,178 5,025 Primate 1 Primate 2 7.34 7,112 4,492 Primate 3 7.28 7,560 4,780 Hoofstock Mix 1 7.25 7,765 5,347 Hoofstock Mix 2 7.33 6,918 4,625 Hoofstock Mix 3 Bird Mix 1 7.45 7,442 5,222 Bird Mix 2 7.43 6,963 4,810 Bird Mix 3 7.40 7,000 4,700 Zoo Mix 1 7.25 7,147 4,828 Zoo Mix 2 7.28 7,105 4,887 Zoo Mix 3 7.29 6,302 4,138 Food Waste 1 7.29 5,678 3,583 Food Waste 2 7.32 5,962 3,783 Food Waste 3 7.31 8,680 6,060 ZMF 1 7.21 8,680 6,060 ZMF 2 7.27 7,840 5,192 ZMF 3 7.32 7,822 5,315 COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 6,800 584 6,600 560 6,950 520 8,900 591 9,100 614 9,300 587 8,900 8,450 7,900 7,700 573 461 553 552 7,000 7,300 6,350 7,800 8,500 7,450 8,700 6,500 7,050 8,650 7,950 9,500 552 542 535 533 550 535 561 553 573 556 545 561 Table 25: Round 1 BMP gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis Sample Average Max Average Max Average Max Methane Methane CO2 CO2 H2 S H2 S (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Carnivore 48 58 20 23 644 792 Primate 61 68 23 26 466 690 Hoofstock Mix 64 69 17 25 162 231 Bird Mix 58 68 14 17 160 199 Zoo Mix 60 67 15 20 163 248 Food Waste 67 71 23 24 455 729 ZMF 63 68 20 24 214 254 79 A2. Round 2 BMP Table 26: BMP round 2 raw characterization TS VS (mg/kg) (mg/kg) Sample Filtrate 41,709 28,204 Carnivore 448,715 331,162 Primate 260,949 224,924 Hoofstock Mix 413,212 302,812 Bird Mix 805,134 717,134 Zoo Mix 395,546 283,832 Food Waste 275,485 259,168 ZMF 375,088 283,635 Table 27: Round 2 BMP pre-digestion data pH TS VS (mg/L) (mg/L) Sample Seed 1 8.05 8,430 5,741 Seed 2 8.13 8,289 5,651 Seed 3 8.07 8,346 5,727 Carnivore 1 7.80 11,739 8,430 Carnivore 2 7.96 11,059 7,554 Carnivore 3 7.90 11,180 7,693 Primate 1 7.83 12,173 9,095 Primate 2 7.79 9,405 6,685 Primate 3 8.33 12,525 9,480 Hoofstock Mix 1 8.15 11,350 8,325 Hoofstock Mix 2 8.07 10,908 8,105 Hoofstock Mix 3 7.93 11,315 8,287 Bird Mix 1 8.08 10,308 7,630 Bird Mix 2 7.92 9,627 7,078 Bird Mix 3 7.83 8,845 6,613 Zoo Mix 1 8.19 11,108 7,982 Zoo Mix 2 8.00 11,830 8,470 Zoo Mix 3 8.14 10,343 7,575 Food Waste 1 7.70 10,660 7,717 Food Waste 2 7.58 10,783 8,033 Food Waste 3 7.51 10,758 8,083 ZMF 1 8.02 11,198 8,362 ZMF 2 8.27 11,060 8,035 ZMF 3 8.07 11,728 8,488 80 TS (%) 4.2 44.9 26.1 41.3 80.5 39.6 27.5 37.5 VS TS:VS (%) 2.8 68% 33.1 74% 22.5 86% 30.3 73% 71.7 89% 28.4 72% 25.9 94% 28.4 76% COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 10,650 571 10,100 575 10,050 585 16,000 626 14,100 613 14,450 606 14,100 545 14,700 521 15,250 606 13,600 610 12,200 588 12,400 625 11,750 687 11,850 620 11,150 687 12,800 599 12,550 598 12,900 568 14,500 606 13,650 590 14,750 592 11,800 614 12,400 602 12,250 607 Table 28: Round 2 BMP post-digestion data pH TS (mg/L) Sample Seed 1 7.78 6,815 Seed 2 7.74 6,790 Seed 3 7.69 7,063 Carnivore 1 7.56 8,427 Carnivore 2 7.48 8,788 Carnivore 3 7.45 8,680 Primate 1 7.54 8,510 Primate 2 7.61 8,370 Primate 3 7.50 8,920 Hoofstock Mix 1 7.48 8,567 Hoofstock Mix 2 7.52 8,788 Hoofstock Mix 3 7.61 8,790 Bird Mix 1 7.73 7,857 Bird Mix 2 7.76 7,740 Bird Mix 3 7.73 7,585 Zoo Mix 1 7.61 8,285 Zoo Mix 2 7.61 7,650 Zoo Mix 3 7.56 8,063 Food Waste 1 7.41 7,320 Food Waste 2 7.55 7,265 Food Waste 3 7.56 6,965 ZMF 1 7.43 7,935 ZMF 2 7.36 8110 ZMF 3 7.37 8217.5 VS (mg/L) 4,250 4,337 4,392 5,340 5,295 5,258 5,708 5,530 5,885 5,450 5,903 5,737 5,060 5,045 4,945 5,405 4,828 5,278 4,483 4,512 4,168 5,178 5375 5222.5 COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 6700 751 7650 768 6750 785 8900 862 7750 853 7650 885 8950 817 7900 859 8700 836 8200 808 8500 796 7750 798 6850 813 7100 803 7350 747 7100 780 7450 789 8350 766 7400 986 7900 914 7000 860 8150 802 7800 799 8250 796 Table 29: BMP Round 2 gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis Sample Average Max Average Max Average Max Methane Methane CO2 CO2 H2 S H2 S (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Carnivore 58 71 17 25 382 719 Primate 59 71 21 29 471 682 Hoofstock Mix 57 70 16 26 156 223 Bird Mix 54 70 12 18 111 174 Zoo Mix 58 71 15 24 159 263 Food Waste 57 71 20 26 15 45 ZMF 57 70 18 26 160 243 81 A3. Round 3 BMP Table 30: BMP round 3 raw characterization TS VS (mg/kg) (mg/kg) Sample Filtrate 27,700 20,007 Carnivore 385,655 269,239 Primate 227,454 193,773 Hoofstock Mix 382,058 284,991 Bird Mix 581,304 515,897 Zoo Mix 375,840 283,744 Food Waste 378,684 306,183 ZMF 349,899 259,917 Table 31: Round 3 BMP pre-digestion data pH TS VS (mg/L) (mg/L) Sample Seed 1 7.98 8,705 6,155 Seed 2 8.05 8,427 6,145 Seed 3 8.02 8,170 6,147 Carnivore 1 7.65 11,040 8,230 Carnivore 2 8.00 10,605 7,678 Carnivore 3 7.95 10,400 8,055 Primate 1 Primate 2 Primate 3 Hoofstock Mix 1 8.00 9,202 6,290 Hoofstock Mix 2 7.96 8,757 6,082 Hoofstock Mix 3 7.62 8,302 6,097 Bird Mix 1 7.79 9,877 7,282 Bird Mix 2 8.05 11,550 8,777 Bird Mix 3 7.98 9,023 6,562 Zoo Mix 1 7.67 9,002 6,622 Zoo Mix 2 8.10 8,415 6,230 Zoo Mix 3 7.96 9,115 6,983 Food Waste 1 7.93 9,890 7,418 Food Waste 2 7.84 10,005 7,775 Food Waste 3 7.73 10,358 7,950 ZMF 1 ZMF 2 8.04 10,250 7,282 ZMF 3 8.11 9,797 7,343 82 TS (%) 2.8 38.6 22.7 38.2 58.1 37.6 37.9 35.0 VS TS:VS (%) 2.0 0.72 26.9 0.7 19.4 0.85 28.5 0.75 51.6 0.89 28.4 0.75 30.6 0.81 26.0 0.74 COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 10,450 191 12,200 105 12,150 128 16,650 59 11,100 219 13,200 30 15,050 11,950 13,750 11,400 13,700 10,650 11,200 11,050 13,700 12,850 14,800 15,450 233 179 181 150 12 75 149 101 87 206 137 127 10,000 12,000 63 67 Table 32: Round 3 BMP post-digestion data pH TS VS (mg/L) (mg/L) Sample Seed 1 6.95 5,215 3,680 Seed 2 7.06 6,113 3,765 Seed 3 7.17 6,245 3,700 Carnivore 1 7.13 7,620 4,868 Carnivore 2 7.13 7,388 4,530 Carnivore 3 7.02 7,915 4,980 Primate 1 Primate 2 Primate 3 Hoofstock Mix 1 7.24 7,422 4,505 Hoofstock Mix 2 7.08 6,580 4,065 Hoofstock Mix 3 7.08 5,704 3,912 Bird Mix 1 7.24 6,213 4,103 Bird Mix 2 7.22 6,464 4,290 Bird Mix 3 7.16 6,770 4,678 Zoo Mix 1 7.07 6,213 4,040 Zoo Mix 2 7.08 6,717 4,525 Zoo Mix 3 7.12 6,783 4,488 Food Waste 1 7.29 6,100 3,895 Food Waste 2 7.11 6,785 4,427 Food Waste 3 7.17 6,063 3,925 ZMF 1 ZMF 2 7.13 7,007 4,440 ZMF 3 7.16 6,845 4,112 COD Ammonia (mg/L) (mg/L) 6,900 639 8,000 465 6,950 1,003 7,000 680 7,300 1,115 6,700 759 6,600 5,700 7,200 6,650 6,800 5,850 6,450 6,400 6,650 6,900 6,800 5,700 660 598 1,305 525 623 347 449 369 1,460 388 332 580 6,500 10,800 819 1,270 Table 33: BMP Round 3 gas composition from weekly gas chromatography analysis Sample Average Max Average Max Average Max a a Methane Methane CO2 CO2 H2 S H2 S (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%) Carnivore 62 75 19 21 454 1027 Primate Hoofstock Mix 61 75 17 21 62 182 Bird Mix 61 75 16 17 227 376 Zoo Mix 58 75 15 19 64 164 Food Waste 64 76 18 19 515 860 ZMF 60 75 16 18 112 196 a. The first week’s data point for the CO2 reading was not measured and is not included in the max or average results. 83 Appendix C: Additional data from small-scale pilot testing This appendix provides additional data from the small-scale pilot testing. C1. Zoo Mix 1 Table 34: Biogas production data for each collection point for zoo mix 1 pilot Lapsed Lapsed Cumulative Biogas Biogas Pressure time Time Biogas Production Production Rate (hr) (day) (L) (L biogas/kg (L biogas/kg (Pascal) initial VS) initial VS*day) 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 18 0.8 2.5 6.7 8.9 1219 22 0.9 2.8 7.5 8.1 1244 24 1.0 2.9 7.7 7.7 1244 73 3.0 4.7 12.5 4.1 1294 88 3.7 4.8 12.8 3.5 100 91 3.8 4.8 12.8 3.4 0 94 3.9 4.8 12.8 3.3 0 96 4.0 4.8 12.8 3.2 0 113 4.7 4.8 12.8 2.7 0 114 4.8 4.8 12.8 2.7 0 119 4.9 4.8 12.8 2.6 0 120 5.0 4.8 12.8 2.6 1244 136 5.7 5.6 14.9 2.6 796 138 5.8 5.7 15.2 2.6 1244 142 5.9 5.9 15.7 2.7 1244 169 7.0 7.2 19.2 2.7 1095 166 6.9 7.5 20.0 2.9 1269 168 7.0 7.6 20.2 2.9 1269 186 7.8 9.0 24.0 3.1 1269 190 7.9 9.4 25.0 3.2 1269 212 8.8 11.3 30.1 3.4 1269 256 10.7 15.9 42.3 4.0 1269 258 10.8 16.1 42.8 4.0 1269 262 10.9 16.5 43.9 4.0 1244 264 11.0 16.6 44.2 4.0 1244 280 11.7 18.5 49.2 4.2 1244 286 11.9 19.1 50.8 4.3 1244 289 12.0 19.4 51.6 4.3 1294 304 12.7 21.1 56.2 4.4 1244 306 12.8 21.4 57.0 4.5 1244 311 12.9 21.8 58.0 4.5 1294 312 13.0 22.0 58.5 4.5 1244 331 13.8 24.2 64.4 4.7 1418 334 13.9 24.5 65.2 4.7 1394 84 Table 34 (cont’d) 336 14.0 353 14.7 355 14.8 358 14.9 360 15.0 405 16.9 425 17.7 426 17.8 430 17.9 432 18.0 449 18.7 450 18.8 454 18.9 456 19.0 472 19.7 478 19.9 480 20.0 521 21.7 526 21.9 528 22.0 554 23.1 593 24.7 594 24.8 598 24.9 600 25.0 617 25.7 618 25.8 622 25.9 624 26.0 640 26.7 646 26.9 648 27.0 670 27.9 691 28.8 744 31.0 761 31.7 762 31.8 766 31.9 784 32.7 786 32.8 790 32.9 792 33.0 808 33.7 810 33.8 24.7 26.7 26.9 27.4 27.6 33.2 35.8 36.1 36.6 36.9 39.1 39.2 39.7 40.0 42.0 42.7 42.9 48.8 49.3 49.6 52.7 57.6 57.7 58.2 58.4 60.4 60.8 61.0 61.2 63.2 63.8 64.1 66.6 68.9 74.8 76.4 76.4 76.9 78.7 78.9 79.3 79.5 81.3 81.5 65.7 71.1 71.6 72.9 73.5 88.4 95.3 96.1 97.4 98.2 104.1 104.3 105.7 106.5 111.8 113.6 114.2 129.9 131.2 132.0 140.3 153.3 153.6 154.9 155.4 160.7 161.8 162.3 162.9 168.2 169.8 170.6 177.2 183.4 199.1 203.3 203.3 204.7 209.4 210.0 211.0 211.6 216.4 216.9 85 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.7 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 1344 1443 1443 1418 1394 1244 1244 1344 1319 1244 1244 1344 1244 1344 1294 1145 1244 1344 1244 1269 1244 1244 1244 1269 1244 1194 1394 1269 1394 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1319 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1344 1344 Table 34 (cont’d) 814 33.9 834 34.8 838 34.9 858 35.8 862 35.9 864 36.0 909 37.9 931 38.8 935 38.9 936 39.0 952 39.7 954 39.8 958 39.9 960 40.0 977 40.7 982 40.9 984 41.0 1,004 41.8 1,026 42.8 1,032 43.0 1,077 44.9 1,097 45.7 1,099 45.8 1,102 45.9 1,104 46.0 1,122 46.8 1,126 46.9 1,128 47.0 1,144 47.7 1,146 47.8 1,266 52.8 1,290 53.8 1,294 53.9 1,312 54.7 1,314 54.8 1,318 54.9 1,339 55.8 1,362 56.8 1,366 56.9 1,368 57.0 1,386 57.8 81.9 84.1 84.4 86.4 86.7 86.9 91.0 93.0 93.3 93.4 94.9 95.0 95.4 95.6 97.0 97.4 97.6 99.0 100.7 101.2 104.4 105.8 105.9 106.1 106.3 107.4 107.6 107.7 108.6 108.8 115.5 116.6 116.7 117.5 117.6 117.7 118.7 119.6 119.6 119.7 120.4 218.0 223.8 224.6 229.9 230.7 231.3 242.2 247.5 248.3 248.6 252.6 252.8 253.9 254.4 258.2 259.2 259.7 263.5 268.0 269.3 277.8 281.6 281.8 282.4 282.9 285.8 286.4 286.6 289.0 289.6 307.4 310.3 310.6 312.7 313.0 313.2 315.9 318.3 318.3 318.6 320.4 86 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 1219 1145 1244 1244 1194 1244 1219 1244 1244 1244 1194 1194 1219 1194 1194 1294 1244 1194 1095 1194 1145 1145 1194 1194 1194 1194 1120 1145 1244 1194 1145 0 1070 1194 796 1145 1145 1145 1145 1145 1194 Table 35: Gas composition measured weekly for zoo mix 1 pilot Day Methane Carbon Dioxide (%) (%) 5 3 6 12 52 35 19 55 35 27 46 31 47 50 37 55 46 32 59 46 33 Table 36: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the zoo mix 1 pilot Day pH Volume (mL) 20 8.08 25 23 8.34 22 30 8.37 32 35 8.39 33 48 8.36 46 55 8.67 17 58 8.50 42 59 8.27 16 C2. Zoo Mix 2 Table 37: Biogas production data for each collection point for zoo mix 2 pilot Lapsed Lapsed Cumulative Biogas Biogas Pressure time Time Biogas Production Production Rate (hr) (day) (L) (L biogas/kg (L biogas/kg (Pascal) initial VS) initial VS*day) 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 18 0.8 2.4 6.4 8.6 1170 22 0.9 2.6 7.0 7.7 1244 24 1.0 2.9 7.6 7.6 1194 73 3.0 4.5 12.0 3.9 1344 88 3.7 4.6 12.3 3.3 100 91 3.8 4.6 12.3 3.3 100 94 3.9 4.6 12.3 3.1 100 96 4.0 4.6 12.3 3.1 50 113 4.7 4.6 12.3 2.6 75 114 4.8 4.6 12.3 2.6 50 119 4.9 4.6 12.3 2.5 0 120 5.0 4.6 12.3 2.5 1145 136 5.7 5.4 14.3 2.5 50 87 Table 37 (cont’d) 138 5.8 142 5.9 169 7.0 166 6.9 168 7.0 186 7.8 190 7.9 212 8.8 256 10.7 258 10.8 262 10.9 264 11.0 280 11.7 286 11.9 289 12.0 304 12.7 306 12.8 311 12.9 312 13.0 331 13.8 334 13.9 336 14.0 353 14.7 355 14.8 358 14.9 360 15.0 405 16.9 425 17.7 426 17.8 430 17.9 432 18.0 449 18.7 450 18.8 454 18.9 456 19.0 472 19.7 478 19.9 480 20.0 521 21.7 526 21.9 528 22.0 554 23.1 593 24.7 594 24.8 5.5 5.6 6.8 7.2 7.2 8.5 8.8 10.6 15.1 15.2 15.5 15.6 17.6 18.2 18.5 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.1 23.4 23.8 24.0 26.2 26.4 27.0 27.2 33.3 36.1 36.4 37.1 37.4 39.9 40.0 40.6 40.9 43.2 44.1 44.3 50.5 51.2 51.4 55.1 60.9 61.1 14.6 14.9 18.2 19.0 19.0 22.5 23.4 28.1 40.1 40.4 41.3 41.6 46.8 48.3 49.2 53.9 54.7 55.9 56.2 62.4 63.2 63.8 69.7 70.3 71.7 72.3 88.7 96.0 96.9 98.7 99.5 106.3 106.6 108.0 108.9 115.1 117.4 118.0 134.4 136.1 136.7 146.7 162.2 162.5 88 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.4 6.6 6.6 1219 1244 1095 1194 1991 1219 1194 1194 1244 1219 1194 1194 1194 1219 1145 1194 1244 1194 1194 1170 1244 1145 1194 1194 1194 1244 1045 1170 1145 1045 1145 1194 1244 1194 1219 1244 1095 1194 1194 1145 1194 1145 1145 1194 Table 37 (cont’d) 598 24.9 600 25.0 617 25.7 618 25.8 622 25.9 624 26.0 640 26.7 646 26.9 648 27.0 670 27.9 691 28.8 744 31.0 761 31.7 762 31.8 766 31.9 784 32.7 786 32.8 790 32.9 792 33.0 808 33.7 810 33.8 814 33.9 834 34.8 838 34.9 858 35.8 862 35.9 864 36.0 909 37.9 931 38.8 935 38.9 936 39.0 952 39.7 954 39.8 958 39.9 960 40.0 977 40.7 982 40.9 984 41.0 1,004 41.8 1,026 42.8 1,032 43.0 1,077 44.9 1,097 45.7 1,099 45.8 61.6 61.9 64.2 64.5 65.0 65.2 67.7 68.4 68.8 71.7 74.5 81.7 83.7 83.8 84.4 86.7 86.9 87.5 87.7 90.0 90.3 90.9 93.1 93.4 95.0 95.3 95.4 98.8 100.2 100.4 100.5 101.6 101.6 102.0 102.1 103.1 103.4 103.5 104.4 105.6 105.9 107.8 108.6 108.6 163.9 164.8 171.0 171.6 173.0 173.6 180.0 182.1 183.0 190.9 198.2 217.5 222.8 223.1 224.5 230.7 231.3 232.7 233.3 239.5 240.3 241.8 247.7 248.5 252.9 253.5 253.8 262.9 266.7 267.3 267.6 270.5 270.5 271.4 271.7 274.3 275.2 275.5 277.8 281.0 281.9 286.9 288.9 288.9 89 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.4 6.3 6.3 1170 1219 1145 1194 1170 1145 1145 1244 1170 1194 1170 1219 1145 1194 1194 1145 1095 1145 1194 1145 1194 1145 1045 1145 1070 1244 1194 1170 1170 1194 1194 1145 1219 1170 1170 1170 1145 995 1194 946 1095 995 995 1045 Table 37 (cont’d) 1,102 45.9 1,104 46.0 1,122 46.8 1,126 46.9 1,128 47.0 1,144 47.7 1,146 47.8 1,266 52.8 1,290 53.8 1,294 53.9 1,312 54.7 1,314 54.8 1,318 54.9 1,339 55.8 1,362 56.8 1,366 56.9 1,368 57.0 1,386 57.8 108.7 108.8 109.3 109.5 109.6 110.7 110.9 114.5 115.1 115.2 116.2 116.2 116.4 117.8 118.9 119.0 119.1 119.7 289.2 289.5 291.0 291.3 291.6 294.5 295.1 304.8 306.2 306.5 309.1 309.1 309.7 313.5 316.5 316.8 317.0 318.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 946 1045 896 1269 1219 1194 1145 1070 0 995 1170 697 1045 1045 1095 1941 1244 1294 Table 38: Gas composition measured weekly for zoo mix 2 pilot Day Methane Carbon Dioxide (%) (%) 5 10 27 12 47 37 19 54 33 27 50 34 47 50 38 55 35 24 59 49 35 Table 39: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the Zoo Mix 2 pilot Day pH Volume (mL) 30 8.32 20 35 8.48 33 48 8.27 47 55 8.75 15 58 8.61 26 59 8.25 24 90 C3. ZMF 1 Table 40: Biogas production data for each collection point for ZMF 1 pilot Lapsed Lapsed Cumulative Biogas Biogas Pressure time Time Biogas Production Production Rate (hr) (day) (L) (L biogas/kg (L biogas/kg (Pascal) initial VS) initial VS*day) 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 16 0.7 1.0 3.0 4.5 1344 32 1.3 1.0 3.0 2.2 348 34 1.4 1.1 3.3 2.3 1344 38 1.6 1.4 4.3 2.7 1319 58 2.4 2.5 7.6 3.2 1145 62 2.6 2.9 8.6 3.3 1319 64 2.7 2.9 8.6 3.2 1319 82 3.4 3.6 11.0 3.2 1294 86 3.6 3.9 11.6 3.2 1319 108 4.5 4.6 13.9 3.1 1194 152 6.3 6.2 18.6 2.9 1269 154 6.4 6.2 18.6 2.9 1219 158 6.6 6.2 18.6 2.8 1344 160 6.7 6.3 18.9 2.8 1344 176 7.3 6.8 20.6 2.8 1294 182 7.6 6.9 20.9 2.8 1369 185 7.7 7.0 21.2 2.8 1394 200 8.3 7.6 22.9 2.7 1344 202 8.4 7.6 22.9 2.7 1294 207 8.6 7.7 23.2 2.7 1244 208 8.7 7.7 23.2 2.7 1344 227 9.5 8.4 25.2 2.7 1170 230 9.6 8.5 25.6 2.7 1344 232 9.7 8.5 25.6 2.6 1145 249 10.4 9.1 27.6 2.7 1194 251 10.4 9.2 27.9 2.7 1344 254 10.6 9.4 28.2 2.7 1344 256 10.7 9.5 28.6 2.7 1294 301 12.5 11.3 34.2 2.7 1095 321 13.4 12.3 37.2 2.8 1344 322 13.4 12.4 37.5 2.8 1344 326 13.6 12.7 38.2 2.8 1194 328 13.7 12.8 38.5 2.8 1294 345 14.4 13.8 41.5 2.9 1344 346 14.4 13.8 41.5 2.9 1344 350 14.6 13.9 41.8 2.9 1344 352 14.7 14.0 42.2 2.9 1294 91 Table 40 (cont’d) 368 15.3 374 15.6 376 15.7 417 17.4 422 17.6 424 17.7 450 18.7 489 20.4 490 20.4 494 20.6 496 20.7 513 21.4 514 21.4 518 21.6 520 21.6 536 22.3 542 22.6 544 22.7 566 23.6 587 24.4 640 26.7 657 27.4 658 27.4 662 27.6 680 28.3 682 28.4 686 28.6 688 28.7 704 29.3 706 29.4 710 29.6 730 30.4 734 30.6 754 31.4 758 31.6 760 31.7 805 33.5 827 34.4 831 34.6 832 34.7 848 35.3 850 35.4 854 35.6 856 35.7 14.9 15.2 15.3 17.8 18.0 18.3 19.8 22.9 23.0 23.2 23.4 24.8 24.8 25.1 25.2 26.5 27.0 27.2 28.9 30.7 35.6 37.2 37.2 37.6 39.4 39.6 40.0 40.2 41.9 42.1 42.5 44.7 45.0 47.1 47.4 47.5 51.8 53.8 54.1 54.3 55.9 56.0 56.4 56.5 44.8 45.8 46.2 53.8 54.5 55.1 59.8 69.1 69.4 70.1 70.7 74.7 74.7 75.7 76.0 80.0 81.3 82.0 87.3 92.6 107.6 112.2 112.2 113.6 118.9 119.5 120.9 121.2 126.5 127.2 128.2 134.8 135.8 142.1 143.1 143.4 156.4 162.4 163.4 164.0 168.7 169.0 170.3 170.7 92 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 1344 1194 1344 1344 1344 1344 1344 1294 1294 1369 1344 1344 1294 1319 1319 1294 1319 1319 1294 1319 1294 1294 1294 1244 1244 1194 1244 1219 1244 1244 1244 1194 1244 1244 1219 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1344 Table 40 (cont’d) 873 36.4 878 36.6 880 36.7 900 37.5 902 37.6 922 38.4 928 38.7 973 40.5 993 41.4 995 41.4 998 41.6 1001 41.7 1018 42.4 1022 42.6 1024 42.7 1040 43.3 1042 43.4 1162 48.4 1186 49.4 1190 49.6 1208 50.3 1210 50.4 1214 50.6 1235 51.5 1258 52.4 1262 52.6 1264 52.7 1282 53.4 58.1 58.5 58.6 60.2 60.4 62.0 62.2 65.3 66.7 66.9 67.1 67.3 68.4 68.8 68.9 69.9 70.0 76.8 78.0 78.2 78.5 78.5 78.7 79.4 79.4 79.5 79.5 80.6 175.3 176.6 177.0 181.6 182.3 187.3 187.6 197.2 201.2 201.9 202.5 203.2 206.5 207.5 207.8 210.8 211.2 231.8 235.4 236.1 237.1 237.1 237.4 239.7 239.7 240.1 240.1 243.4 Table 41: Gas composition measured weekly for ZMF 1 pilot Day Methane Carbon Dioxide (%) (%) 7 21 49 14 47 41 22 55 34 32 56 33 39 54 42 56 34 50 51 30 54 55 24 93 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 1369 1344 1319 1394 1344 1194 1294 1194 1294 1344 1344 1344 1344 1369 1319 1344 1344 1294 1443 0 149 199 1170 149 224 1120 1194 1145 Table 42: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the ZMF 1 pilot Day pH Volume (mL) 15 6.04 32 18 6.52 32 22 7.29 35 25 7.78 29 30 8.18 30 35 8.50 38 42 8.40 40 50 8.59 43 53 8.04 54 8.40 13 C4. ZMF 2 Table 43: Biogas production data for each collection point for ZMF 2 pilot Lapsed Lapsed Cumulative Biogas Biogas Pressure time Time Biogas Production Production Rate (hr) (day) (L) (L biogas/kg (L biogas/kg (Pascal) initial VS) initial VS*day) 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 16 0.7 1.2 3.7 5.5 1344 32 1.3 3.1 9.3 7.0 1344 34 1.4 3.2 9.6 6.8 1294 38 1.6 3.5 10.6 6.7 1294 58 2.4 4.5 13.6 5.6 1145 62 2.6 4.7 14.3 5.5 1319 64 2.7 4.7 14.3 5.4 1617 82 3.4 5.5 16.6 4.9 1369 86 3.6 5.7 17.3 4.8 1344 108 4.5 6.4 19.3 4.3 1294 152 6.3 7.6 22.9 3.6 1294 154 6.4 7.7 23.2 3.6 1219 158 6.6 7.7 23.2 3.5 1244 160 6.7 7.7 23.2 3.5 1269 176 7.3 8.1 24.6 3.4 1244 182 7.6 8.3 24.9 3.3 1194 185 7.7 8.3 24.9 3.2 1294 200 8.3 8.6 25.9 3.1 1294 202 8.4 8.7 26.2 3.1 1194 207 8.6 8.8 26.6 3.1 1194 208 8.7 8.8 26.6 3.1 1244 227 9.5 9.1 27.6 2.9 1045 94 Table 43 (cont’d) 230 9.6 232 9.7 249 10.4 251 10.4 254 10.6 256 10.7 301 12.5 321 13.4 322 13.4 326 13.6 328 13.7 345 14.4 346 14.4 350 14.6 352 14.7 368 15.3 374 15.6 376 15.7 417 17.4 422 17.6 424 17.7 450 18.7 489 20.4 490 20.4 494 20.6 496 20.7 513 21.4 514 21.4 518 21.6 520 21.6 536 22.3 542 22.6 544 22.7 566 23.6 587 24.4 640 26.7 657 27.4 658 27.4 662 27.6 680 28.3 682 28.4 686 28.6 688 28.7 704 29.3 9.2 9.2 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.8 10.9 11.6 11.6 11.7 11.8 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.0 13.1 13.2 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.4 16.9 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.9 18.5 18.7 18.8 19.6 20.4 22.7 23.3 23.3 23.5 24.3 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.6 27.9 27.9 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.6 32.9 34.9 34.9 35.2 35.5 37.2 37.2 37.5 37.9 39.2 39.5 39.8 43.5 43.8 44.2 46.5 51.1 51.1 51.5 51.8 53.5 53.5 53.8 54.1 55.8 56.4 56.8 59.1 61.4 68.4 70.4 70.4 71.1 73.4 73.7 74.4 74.7 77.4 95 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 1219 1045 1095 1294 1294 1194 1045 1145 1294 1095 1194 1244 1244 1194 1145 1244 1070 1244 1244 1294 1294 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 796 1269 1294 1244 1244 1294 1244 1269 1244 1244 1294 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 Table 43 (cont’d) 706 29.4 710 29.6 730 30.4 734 30.6 754 31.4 758 31.6 760 31.7 805 33.5 827 34.4 831 34.6 832 34.7 848 35.3 850 35.4 854 35.6 856 35.7 873 36.4 878 36.6 880 36.7 900 37.5 902 37.6 922 38.4 928 38.7 973 40.5 993 41.4 995 41.4 998 41.6 1001 41.7 1018 42.4 1022 42.6 1024 42.7 1040 43.3 1042 43.4 1162 48.4 1186 49.4 1190 49.6 1208 50.3 1210 50.4 1214 50.6 1235 51.5 1258 52.4 1262 52.6 1264 52.7 1282 53.4 25.7 26.0 27.1 27.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 30.7 31.8 32.0 32.2 33.0 33.1 33.3 33.4 34.3 34.7 34.8 35.6 35.8 36.9 37.2 39.5 40.5 40.6 40.8 41.0 41.8 41.9 42.0 42.5 42.8 48.0 49.0 49.1 49.7 49.8 49.9 50.2 50.4 50.4 50.4 50.4 77.7 78.4 81.7 82.3 85.7 86.0 86.3 92.6 96.0 96.6 97.3 99.6 99.9 100.6 100.9 103.6 104.6 104.9 107.6 107.9 111.2 112.2 119.2 122.2 122.5 123.2 123.8 126.2 126.5 126.8 128.2 129.2 144.8 147.8 148.1 150.1 150.4 150.7 151.4 152.1 152.1 152.1 152.1 96 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 1244 1244 1244 1194 1269 1244 1244 1244 1244 1269 1269 1294 1244 1244 1244 1369 1219 1244 1244 1244 1145 1294 1194 1244 1244 1244 1244 1244 1394 1344 1344 1319 1319 597 771 1344 1095 1344 1244 1344 1145 747 846 Table 44: Gas composition measured weekly for ZMF 2 pilot Day Methane Carbon Dioxide (%) (%) 7 19 52 14 40 46 22 53 39 32 57 37 39 52 42 57 34 50 29 18 54 60 25 Table 45: Leachate volume and pH measured as needed from the ZMF 2 pilot Day pH Volume (mL) 15 6.38 34 18 6.58 40 22 6.60 28 25 7.05 38 30 7.52 36 42 8.18 42 43 8.08 42 50 8.53 30 54 8.44 16 97 Appendix D: MATLAB code for fitting model to the small-scale pilot digester data This appendix provides the code used for fitting the the Modified Gompertz equation model to the data from the small-scale pilot digesters. %% Housekeeping close all clear clc format long %% Read in data data=xlsread('zoo model data'); %% Experimental Data tobs=data(:,1); nobs=length(tobs); yobs=data(:,2); figure plot(tobs, yobs,'o') xlabel 'Time (d)' ylabel 'Cumulative Biogas Production (L/kg initial VS)' %% Explicit Function fnameFOR=@Gompertz_FOR; type Gompertz_FOR.m %% Initial Guesses P= 300; Rm= 9; lambda= 8; beta0(1)=P; beta0(2)=Rm; beta0(3)=lambda; p=length(beta0); %% Call and plot the function Y=Gompertz_FOR(beta0,tobs); plot(tobs,Y) %% nlinfit returns parameters, residuals, Jacobian (sensitivity coefficient matrix), fnameINV=@Gompertz_FOR; [beta,resids,J,COVB,mse] = nlinfit(tobs, yobs,fnameINV, beta0); beta rmse=sqrt(mse) 98 condX=cond(J) detXTX=det(J'*J) [R,sigma]=corrcov(COVB); R sigma relerr=sigma'./beta ci=nlparci(beta,resids,J) meanr=mean(resids) %% Plot of Observed Data and Predicted Model ypred=fnameINV(beta,tobs); figure plot(tobs,ypred) hold on plot(tobs,yobs,'o') ylabel 'Biogas (L per kg initial VS)' xlabel 'Time (d)' legend ('Predicted', 'Observed', 'location', 'best') %% X' = scaled sensitivity coefficients using forward-difference for estimated parameters ts=linspace(0,max(tobs),1000)'; ypred=fnameINV(beta,ts); Xp=SSC_V3(beta,ts,fnameFOR); ns=length(ts); cmap = ['r' 'g' 'b' 'c' 'y' 'm' 'k' ]'; figure hold on set(gca, 'fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold'); h2(1)=plot(ts,ypred,'-','color',cmap(1,:),'LineWidth',2); for i=1:p h2(i+1) = plot(ts,Xp(:,i),'-','color',cmap(i+1,:),'LineWidth',2); end legend('Predicted','P','R_m','\lambda', 'location', 'best') xlabel('Time (d)'); ylabel('Scaled Sensitivity Coefficient or L biogas/kg initial VS'); grid on %% Confidence and prediction intervals for the dependent variable [ypred, delta] = nlpredci(fnameINV,tobs,beta,resids,J,0.05,'on','curve'); [ypred, deltaob] =nlpredci(fnameINV,tobs,beta,resids,J,0.05,'on','observation'); CBu=ypred+delta; CBl=ypred-delta; PBu=ypred+deltaob; PBl=ypred-deltaob; figure hold on 99 plot(tobs,ypred,'-b'); plot(tobs,yobs,'sb','MarkerFaceColor','b'); plot(tobs,CBu,'--r','LineWidth',1); plot(tobs,CBl,'--r','LineWidth',1); plot(tobs,PBu,'-.m','LineWidth',1); plot(tobs,PBl,'-.m','LineWidth',1); legend('ypred','yobs','CB','','PB','','location','best') xlabel 'Time (d)' ylabel 'Cumulative Biogas Production (L biogas/kg initial VS)' %% residual scatter plot figure hold on n=length(tobs); plot(tobs(:,1), resids(1:n), 'sb','Markerfacecolor', 'b') YLine = [0 0]; XLine = [0 60]; plot (XLine, YLine,'R'); ylabel('Observed M - Predicted M','fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold') xlabel('Time (d)','fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold') legend('Residuals','location','best') %% residual histogram figure normhist(resids); [n1, xout] = hist(resids,10); figure hold on set(gca, 'fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold'); bar(xout, n1) xlabel('Observed y/\sigma - Predicted y/\sigma','fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold') ylabel('Frequency','fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold') %% prior information b_old=beta0'; p=length(b_old); sig=25; sig=sig*ones(n,1); tol=5e-4; ratio = 1; d=0.001; count=1; %% start sequential estimation while ratio>tol b= b_old; 100 ypred=Gompertz_FOR(b,tobs); e=yobs-ypred; for i=1:length(b) bin=b; bin(i)=b(i)*(1+d); yhat{i}=Gompertz_FOR(bin,tobs); XX{i}=(yhat{i}-ypred)/(b(i)*d); if i==1 X=XX{i}; else X=[X XX{:,i}]; end end P=10*[b_old(1)^2 0 0; 0 b_old(2)^2 0; 0 0 b_old(3)^2]; B=b_old'; for ii=1:n; A=P*X(ii,:)'; Delta=sig(ii)^2+X(ii,:)*A; K=A/Delta; b=b+K*(e(ii)-X(ii,:)*(b-b_old)); P=P-K*A'; B=[B;b']; if ii==1 PP=[P(1,1) P(1,2) P(2,2)]; else PP=[PP; P(1,1) P(1,2) P(2,2)]; end end b_new=b; ratio=max(abs((b_new-b_old)./b_old)); b_old=b_new; count=count+1; end BB=B(2:end,:); %% Compute final sensitivity matrix b= b_old; ypred=Gompertz_FOR(b,tobs); e=yobs-ypred; for i=1:length(b) bin=b; bin(i)=b(i)*(1+d); 101 yhat{i}=Gompertz_FOR(bin,tobs); XX{i}=(yhat{i}-ypred)/(b(i)*d); if i==1 X=XX{i}; else X=[X XX{:,i}]; end end %% results b_new sigma=sqrt(diag(P)) relerr=sigma./b_new mse=e'*e/(n-p); rmse=sqrt(mse) %% sequential plots figure hold on plot(tobs,BB(:,1),'sg','markerfacecolor','b') plot(tobs,BB(:,2),'ob','markerfacecolor','r') plot(tobs,BB(:,3),'oc','markerfacecolor','g') xlabel('Cumulative Biogas Production (L biogas/kg initial VS)') ylabel('Parameter') grid on %% sequential normalized plots BBn=BB(:,1)./BB(end,1); BBn(:,2)=BB(:,2)./BB(end,2); BBn(:,3)=BB(:,3)./BB(end,3); figure plot(tobs,BBn(:,1),'-g', 'linewidth',1.8) hold on plot(tobs,BBn(:,2),'-b','linewidth',1.8) plot(tobs,BBn(:,3),'-c','linewidth',1.8) xlabel('Time (d)') ylabel('Normalized Parameter') legend('P','R_m','\lambda', 'location', 'best') grid on %% Bootstrapping %% nlinfit returns beta, residuals, Jacobian (sensitivity coefficient matrix), %covariance matrix, and mean square error t=tobs; [beta,resids,J,COVB,mse] = nlinfit(t,yobs,@Gompertz_FOR,beta0); rmse=sqrt(mse); 102 %% R is the correlation matrix for the betaeters, sigma is the standard deviation vector [R,sigma]=corrcov(COVB); %% asymptotic confidence intervals for beta ci95=nlparci(beta,resids,J); ci90=nlparci(beta,resids,J, 0.1); %% nonlinear regression confidence intervals-- 'on' means simultaneous [ypred, delta] = nlpredci('Gompertz_FOR',t,beta,resids,J,0.05,'on','curve'); [ypred, deltaob] =nlpredci('Gompertz_FOR',t,beta,resids,J,0.05,'on','observation'); %% simultaneous confidence bands for regression line CBu=ypred+delta; CBl=ypred-delta; %% simultaneous prediction bands for regression line PBu=ypred+deltaob; PBl=ypred-deltaob; %% bootstrap CI for beta nboot=1000; betab(1,:)=beta; ypredb(1,:)=ypred; mm=2; for j=2:nboot r=round(1 + (n-1).*rand(n,1)); for i=1:n if mm==1 tt(i)=t(r(i)); yboot(i)=yobs(r(i)); end if mm==2 tt=t; yboot(i)=ypred(i)+resids(r(i)); if i==n yboot=yboot'; end end end [betab(j,:),rr(j,:),J2,COVB2,mse2]= nlinfit(tt,yboot,'Gompertz_FOR',beta0); ypredb(j,:)=Gompertz_FOR(betab(j,:),t); clear yboot end r2=rr(1,:)'; 103 for j=2:nboot r2=[r2; rr(j,:)']; end bsort=sort(betab,1); ysort=sort(ypredb,1); L=round(0.025*nboot); if L==0; L=1; end U=round(0.975*nboot); cib(1,1)=bsort(L,1); cib(1,2)=bsort(U,1); cib(2,1)=bsort(L,2); cib(2,2)=bsort(U,2); for i=1:n ybci(i,1)=ysort(L,i); ybci(i,2)=ysort(U,i); end %% compute bootstrap prediction bands D=rmse*tinv(.975,n-p); CIwb(:,1)=ybci(:,1)-ypred; CIwb(:,2)=ypred-ybci(:,2); PIwb(:,1)=sqrt(CIwb(:,1).^2+D^2); PIwb(:,2)=sqrt(CIwb(:,2).^2+D^2); PIb(:,1)=ypred+PIwb(:,1); PIb(:,2)=ypred-PIwb(:,2); %% residual histogram for bootstrap residuals [n1, xout] = hist(r2,6); figure hold on set(gca, 'fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold'); bar(xout, n1) xlabel('Observed M-Predicted M','fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold') ylabel('Frequency','fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold') figure hold on set(gca, 'fontsize',14,'fontweight','bold'); L4 = ['Time (d)']; xlabel(L4,'fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold'); ylabel('Cumulative Biogas Production (L/kg initial VS)','fontsize',16,'fontweight','bold'); h1(1)=plot(t,yobs,'square', 'Markerfacecolor', 'b'); h1(2) = plot(t,ypred,'-','LineWidth',1); h1(3) = plot(t,CBu,'--r','LineWidth',1); plot(t,CBl,'--r','LineWidth',1); %% plot prediction band for regression line h1(4) = plot(t,PBu,'-.m','LineWidth',1); plot(t,PBl,'-.m','LineWidth',1); %% plot bootstrap bands h1(5) = plot(t,ybci(:,1),'--k','LineWidth',1); plot(t,ybci(:,2),'--k','LineWidth',1); h1(6) = plot(t,PIb(:,1),'-g','LineWidth',1); 104 plot(t,PIb(:,2),'-g','LineWidth',1); legend(h1,'Biogasobs','Biogaspred','asyCB','asyPB','bootCB','bootPB','location','best') meanres=mean(resids); 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