THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC MARINA ON EMPLOYMENT IN A SMALL COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN Thesis for the Degree of M. S. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY WILLIAM GEORGE HAGDORN 1970 :!:£‘llaIJO s K H LIBRARY U Mi igan State mversity amaaaamaawaamuamuoaa ,aauaowunweuaaaaaaaaaaaaamgunman» NNBNhNhNNhfih------~h-~s-n-~n------mh sh wmomumm¢mmmmammwmummmmmmammummmmmmmmammmmammmmmmmmmm 9 mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmnmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmT V¢vvwe«evequ¢wv¢#vvvvvvevvevevvvvvvvevwvvvvuvvvv v??? mmnnmmmmmmmmmmmmnmnm nnmmmmnnmmnnnmmmnmmmmnmmnmmmmmmmf NNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN.NNNN? —________________.__________~_______________._________ 82 as I fin” : 2 2 : E 33833333$833,333 cm 3%.. E 233:3. ".3? my; 3.3me «AC... 3.: NM: mmwmw R. 33::a2:223:22:2:26:0:33;: .o. a: f . .. m." .nl 1... m. ,cm 02 J; LIBRARY 8'? ORT. MiG!“ (DIM-I , L1 1 . e g§é\ AUG 1 (I 2002 ABSTRACT THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC MARINA ON EMPLOYMENT IN A SMALL COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN BY William George Hagdorn The purpose of this thesis is to examine the impact a public marina has on the employment patterns in a small community. In the past, state and local governing agencies‘ have not felt the need to determine the impact their finan- cially supported public projects were having on community development. However, administrative policies now fre- quently require evidence that publically financed projects are beneficial and do in fact contribute to the economical development of such communities. The importance of publically financed recreational Projects on economic development is becoming a greater con- cern to all governing agencies. Evidence supporting the impact these projects have on community development is in critical need. Many economically depressed areas which have a potential for recreational development can benefit greatly when presenting evidence to the federal governmental agencies that recreational projects, public financed, will William George Hagdorn generate new employment in the community and will stimulate the local economy. Such evidence has not been available to these local units. A community in northern Michigan was examined under a multiple time series design to trace the effects the public marina has had on past employment in the community. Modifications of this design was necessary because of the lack of a compatible controlled site. This modification involved using the same site but dividing the year into two seasons. The winter season extended from December the preceding year through May while the summer season included the months from June through November. This was done be- cause the marina was only operational during the summer months and its impact on employment occurred at that time. A method was developed to measure the indirect em- ployment stimulated by the construction and operation of the public marina. The direct employment is easily mea- sured because it is readily seen. Positions such as a harbormaster or a new mechanic at a repair facility are examples of direct employment positions. The increase of employee hours at a grocery store or a restaurant are examples of indirect employment and this is what was of primary concern. The findings illustrate that the public marina, after five years of operation, was responsible for the creation of five equivalent full-time employment positions during the summer season; after eight years of operation William George Hagdorn the marina was responsible for generating twelve equivalent full-time employment positions. These twelve positions were created by a public marina with only twenty boating slips available to the boating recreationist. These values were calculated by subtracting certain aspects of the em- ployment patterns in the community leaving a residual amount of employment that was attributed to the public marina. THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC MARINA ON EMPLOYMENT IN A SMALL COMMUNITY IN MICHIGAN BY William George Hagdorn A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Resource Development 1970 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to express my appreciation to those people who have helped in the development and completion of this thesis. I especially would like to thank Dr. Michael Chubb, my major professor and thesis advisor, who has helped in the development of my project and who was extremely helpful in constructively reviewing the thesis throughout the various stages leading to its completion. I also wish to express my thanks to Mr. Keith Wilson, Director of the Michigan Waterways Commission with- out whose assistance, both financial and technical, this thesis would not have evolved. I would also like to thank Dr. Eugene Dice and Dr. William Kimball of the Department of Resource Development for providing background information concerning the area where the study took place. My appreciation goes to many others who supplied information relative to this thesis: Dr. Milton Stein- mueller and Dr. Daniel Chappelle, of the Department of Resource Development; Mr. Michael Freed and Mr. Donald Kelly of the Michigan Waterways Commission; Mr. William Colburn, Department of Natural Resources; Mr. Donald ii Goosetree, Economic Development Administration; Dr. Thomas Burton, Department of Parks and Recreation Resources; Dr. Robert Marty, Department of Forestry; Mr. Paul Schneider, Department of Resource Development; and Mr. Stanley Ball, County Agent, United States Department of Agriculture. A great deal of gratitude is extended to Mr. Ronald Hodgson, project leader of the study from which this thesis evolved and Miss Sharron Brown and Miss Shirley Cook, re- research aides,whose assistance were invaluable during the data gathering stage of this thesis. I also wish to acknowledge the secretarial staff of the Department of Parks and Recreation Resources, especially Miss Connie Phillips, for assistance in the preparation of this thesis. I further wish to thank my fellow graduate students whose constructive criticism was most helpful. I wish to acknowledge the helpfulness of my com- mittee members, Mr. Louis Twardzik, Chairman of the Depart- ment of Parks and Recreation Resources and Dr. Victor Rudolph, Department of Forestry. I wish to express my appreciation to Dr. Raleigh Barlowe, Chairman of the Department of Resource Develop- ment, and many others for the opportunity they made possible. Last, but not least, I wish to thank my wife, Sandra, who encouraged me throughout the many months of work on this thesis and whose assistance I could not have done without. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . LIST OF FIGURES. O O C O O O O C C Chapter I. II. III. INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . Background Information . . Statement of the Problem. . Significance of the Problem. Approaches to the Problem . Site Selection . . . . . . Review of Literature . . . . THE STUDY AREA. . . . . . . . Location . . . . . . . . . Geography . . . . . . . . Climate. . . . . . . . . Soil Type and Fertility . . . Land Ownership . . . . . . History I O O O O O O O 0 Regional . . . . . . . . Local Development . . . . . METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH. . . . . Study Design. . . . . . . . Multiple Time Series Approach . Modification of the Time Series Design . . . . . . . . . iv Page vii viii ONLHuh-H 0G) l7 l7 l8 18. 13” 19' l9 19 22 28 28 28 34 Chapter IV. V. Survey Area . . . . Population. . . . Income . . . . . Industry and Business . Employment and Unemployment Procedure. . . . . Limitations . . . . ASSEMBLED DATA. . . . Gross Sales of Selected Retail Outlets Cherry Production and the Migrant Labor Force . . . . The Seasonal Resident. Tourist and Recreation Impact Overnight Tourist . Transient Tourist . Effects of Harbor . . Employment Patterns of Non-Relevant Sector. Relevant Sector . . RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS. Summary . . . . . Interpretation of Results Conclusions . . . . Recommendations for Future Investigations BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . APPENDICES Appendix A. Profile Scope of Public Works Project B. Total Employment for Canned Fruit and Vegetable Industry in Lakeshore . C. Log Summary for Lakeshore Marina. D. Wage/Time Equivalent Conversion Table Page 35 36 38 38 42 42 46 50 51 57 60 63 64 68 69 73 77 79 90 90 92 98 100 104 106 109 110 111 Chapter Appendix E. Employment: Man Hours for Relevant Sector as Coded According to SIC Code, Winter and Summer . . . . . . . . . . Employment: Man Hours for Non-Relevant Sector as Coded According to SIC Code, Winter and Summer. . . . . . . . . vi Page 112 113 LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1. Total Gross Sales for Selected Retail Outlets in Lakeshore, January 1955-December 1968 . . 53 2. Number of Overnight Guests at Five Establish- ments in the Lakeshore Area, 1955 Through 1968 O O O O I O O O O O O O O O 65 3. Probable Number of Equivalent Full-Time Seasonal Employment Positions Attributable to the Lakeshore Marina. . . . . . . . 101 C-1. Log Summary for Lakeshore Marina . . . . . 110 D-l. Wage/Time Equivalent Conversion Table. . . . lll E-l. Employment: Man Hours for Relevant Sector as Coded According to SIC Code, Winter and Summer . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 F—l. Employment: Man Hours for Non-Relevant Sector as Coded According to SIC Code, Winter and Summer. . . . . . . . . . ll3 vii Figure 1. 10. LIST OF FIGURES Basic Experimental Design Showing Periods for Observations (0) and Treatment (X) of Significant Variable . . . . . . . . Diagram of Observed Change in Employment After Treatment (X) Imposed on Experi- mental Site . . . . . . . . . . . Past and Projected Population Patterns for Lakeshore, the Township and the County . . Per Capita Buying Income for Scenic County, State of Michigan, and the United States and Per Household Buying Income for Scenic County. . . . . . . . . . . . . Breakdown of Industry and Retail Business in the Community of Lakeshore According to the Standard Industrial Classification Code, U.S. Bureau of Budget, 1963 . . . Gross Sales for Selected Retail Outlets in the Community of Lakeshore . . . . . . Red Tart Cherry Production for Michigan and Great Lakes Region. . . . I. . . . . Overnight Visitor Stays for Resort Accommo- dation Outlets in the Lakeshore Area. . . Total Number of People and Boats Served by the Lakeshore Public Marina. . . . . . Total Boating Man Days for the Lakeshore Public Marina as Extracted from Harbor- master's Log Entries . . . . . . . . viii Page 29 29 37 39 41 54 56 66 71 74 Figure Page 11. Total Employment for the Village of Lakeshore for the Period 1955 Through 1968 . . . . 76 12. Total Employment in the Non-relevant Sector for the Community of Lakeshore. . . . . 78 13. Total Employment in the Non-relevant Sector for Winter and Summer Each Year, for the Community of Lakeshore . . . . . . . 80 14. Total Employment in the Relevant Sector for Each Year in the Community of Lakeshore. . 81 15. Total Summer and Winter Employment for the Relevant Sector in the Community of Lake- Shore 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O 82 16. Relevant Sector Employment, Summer Minus Winter for Each Year, for the Community of Lakeshore. . . . . . . . . . . 84 17. Amount of Dollars Spent on Tourism in State of Michigan . . . . . . . . . . . 88 18. A Comparison of Significant Community Events and County Accommodation Use Tax Receipts with Relevant Season Employment for the Community of Lakeshore. . . . . 94 19. Relevant Seasonal Employment for the Com- munity of Lakeshore Without the Effects of the Private Marina and Retail Bakery. . . 96 20. Relevant Seasonal Employment for the Com- munity of Lakeshore Without the Effects of the Employment of County Hospital. . . 97 B-l. Total Employment for Canned Fruits and Vegetables Industry in Lakeshore . . . . 109 ix ‘iiiéltl (i1... .15de CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION Background Information Since its creation in 1945, the Division of Water- ways (Waterways Commission) of the Michigan Department of Natural Resources (DNR) has provided recreational boating facilities for Michigan boaters. The Division was created to participate with the federal government in the con- struction of fifteen recreational harbors of refuge author- ized by Congress in 1945.1 The objective was to provide safe boating on the Great Lakes by providing harbors every thirty miles along Michigan's shoreline.2 After the completion of these harbors, the Water- ways Division was faced with the demand for more facilities. This was due to the rapid increase of the recreational lHarbor of refuge is a single purpose harbor de- signed exclusively for refuge from adverse weather condi- tions. A harbor is an area of water naturally or artifi- cially protected to a degree of providing safe mooring for small crafts during conditions of adverse sea or swell. 2Operation Cooperation--Report of the Steering Com- mittee on Cooperative Programs Between the Michigan Depart- ment of Conservation and Michigan State University, Charles D. Harris and Howard A. Tanner, co-chairmen (Lansing-East Lansing: Michigan Department of Natural Re- sources and Michigan State University, 1968), p. 38. 1 boating fleet in Michigan. Another nine refuge harbors have been completed, with the cooperation of the federal government, and fifteen more are currently being planned.3 As the need for harbors was being satisfied, a de- mand arose from boaters and local communities for the con- struction of berthing facilities within these harbors and also at the future harbors being planned.4 Therefore, in order to meet this demand, the Commission instituted a program by which state funds would be made available to the local communities for the construction of such facilities. The local community would then own and operate the facility guided by policies set forth by the Commission. As the construction of the additional nine harbors neared completion, the Commission became interested in the effects its harbor construction program was having on the economy of the local communities. Information regarding the effects of the construction and presence of a harbor on the economy of a small community has long been sought by various public agencies throughout the country. If such information were available, and the such harbors proved to be of direct economical benefit to the communities con- cerned, then additional funding of projects could be sought under present federal programs. 31bid. 4Berthing describes a form of wet boat storage in which the craft is docked in a "U" shaped slip. Although participating state funds have been relied on to finance the marina program, the Commission desires to make as much use of federal grants as possible and also to have the communities assist in financing the project. The Economic Development Administration (EDA) is one of the federal agencies which has provided funds for the Commis- sion's harbor program. This agency was created under the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965 and was authorized to pro- vide financial assistance to underdeveloped areas of the country. Through this agency, communities can request financial assistance to build public projects which will stimulate the economic growth of the community. A require- ment which must be met before EDA will provide assistance, is that the project must create employment opportunities and decrease unemployment in the area where the project is located. In the past, the communities have been able to satisfy this requirement by providing letters from local businessmen in the community stating what effects such a project would have on the future employment patterns of their businesses. Now, due to more requests for EDA grants and tighter monetary control measures at the federal level, EDA is demanding greater accuracy in the estimation of new employment positions which would be created by a proposed project. Statement of the Problem In 1968, the Waterways Commission requested that the Recreation Research and Planning Unit, Department of Park and Recreation Resources, Michigan State University undertake a long-term study to determine the impact its harbors are having on the economic development of the com- munities. The overall project has been divided into several phases. The first phase of the study is concerned with the impact the harbors have on employment patterns within the local communities. This phase was undertaken first because such information could be of immediate use to the Commission in requesting financial assistance for the projects and also because it could be completed within both the financial and time constraints set for the first phase. The principal objective of this study is to demonstrate that the Water- ways Commission's harbors are economically beneficial to communities and that they do create new employment. This latter point is of extreme importance to the Commission be- cause it is one of the requirements needed to be met for EDA funds before awarding a grant for projects at local levels. Under the provisions set forth by the Economic Development Administration (EDA), United States Department of Commerce, state and local governments may apply for matching funds to finance community projects. One of the criteria used by EDA in evaluating requests for grants is the effect the project will have on creation of new employ- ment positions, directly or indirectly (Appendix A) as a result of the project. In the past, it has been speculated that the harbors have contributed to community economic development and as such have qualified for EDA monies. However, satisfying the new, more stringest requirements by showing that a significant number of new jobs will be created by such a project has become more difficult for the grant applicant. It is also easier to show the direct impact of employment, such as a new harbormaster and two assistants or a new mechanic at a service repair garage, than it is to show the indirect impact created by the harbor. The indirect impact such as increasing the total number of hours per week or day in retail stores, the hiring of a new waitress at a restaurant to handle the extra service because of increase in business, or the hiring of another sales clerk in a gift shop which has extended business hours to accommodate the boater are examples of significant effects the harbor may have on the employment base of the community. Significance of the Problem At the present time, there exists very little infor- mation about the effects of public supported recreation projects on local, regional, or state wide levels. The actual results and impacts of many state and local programs are still unknown and many programs are undertaken using speculative data to justify them. The Waterways Commission believes that a method needs to be developed which will accurately measure the effects public projects have on the employment base of com- munities. They feel that such a method would be of great assistance to all agencies interested in determining the effects of their supported projects. It is expected that this project will be of assistance to the sponsoring agency, Waterways Commission, and to Michigan's smaller political subdivisions who seek to find ways to support public projects and improve their economic stability. It is also believed that the results of this study may suggest new methods by which to measure the secondary benefits of marine construction and operation to the local economy. Lastly, it is hoped that the results of this study will show the necessity for further investi- gation into economic impact of public recreational projects and their effects on the economic development of the com- munities and suggest useful approaches for such investi- gation. Approaches to the Problem During the early phase of this project, a study design was sought which would enable the author to approach the problem in such a manner that would minimize costs, expedite the collection of data and utilize the manpower available in the most efficient manner. Another limiting constraint which affected the choice of a study design was that of time. Results were to be obtained by the end of the second year of the contract. (In a review of available literature, discussed later in this chapter, several study designs were found which could be used to solve the problem. The designs centered upon: (1) Leontief's input-output model, (2) the value added approach as an impact measure,5 and (3) multiple time series design. After considerable analysis and discussions of the advantages and disadvantages of the approaches listed above, the author decided not to use either the Leontief input-output model or the value added approach. Several reasons for excluding these approaches were: 1. The costs involved in conducting either of these two study designs was considerably higher than funds allotted for the study. 2. The variables involved were not easily con- controlled for the accuracy demanded by these two designs. 5The value added approach would also include the traditional data on boater expenditures. It was later found that this could not have been done because the marina had closed during the summer, 1969, when field work had begun. 3. The time allotted for the study was not of sufficient length for these designs to be accomplished. 4. The use of either of these two approaches would create an unreasonable burden to the business establishments in the community during data collection phase since the majority of the establishments depended on the short vacation season for business and therefore would be too busy to provide assistance to the research team. The multiple time series approach was chosen because it was compatible with the existing business situation in the community, it was within the resources available to conduct the study, and could be applied satisfactorily in solving the problem. However, with a larger budget and more time to conduct the study, the value added approach would have been included and would have added additional support to the time series design. Site Selection The site selected for the study was chosen on its ability to satisfy the following criteria: 1. The site must be relatively remove from the economic influences of the larger urban areas. 2. The site must be small enough to easily obtain data and control variables. Because of the need for the site to be small in order to control and measure the variables, it became evi- dent that the collection of data might infringe on the privacy of certain business establishments in the community. In order for the research team to have access to certain records, it was necessary to guarantee that the information would be confidential and that the individual rights would be protected. To insure the protection of these rights, the actual name of the site will not be used in this thesis. However, it is believed that the use of a pseudonym will be more effective than the use of such designation as "site A." Therefore the speudonym of "Lakeshore" will be used throughout this thesis when referring to the specific site studied and the pseudonym of "Scenic" will be used for the county in which the site is located. Review of Literature The field of recreation research is in its infancy in the research community. The need to provide recreation facilities was recognized by the early Puritan settlers in New England when they established the first city park in 1634, the Boston Common.6 As America grew, other cities recognized the need for providing areas where its inhabi- tants could go to relax and recreate. Later in 1872, the 6Reynold E. Carlson, Theodore R. Deppe, and Janet R. Maclean, Recreation in American Life (Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Co., Inc., 1967), p. 30. 10 federal government recognized the need for preserving the natural beauty of the American continent for the enjoyment of present and future generations and thereby establishing our National Parks System.7 It was not until the late 1930's that members of Congress recognized the growing problems of the lack of out- door recreation facilities in the United States. Up until now, America had been neglecting its heritage of the out- doors. Federal funds were allotted for building of recre- ation facilities, state parks, etc. WPA and CCC programs aided in construction of facilities and the rehabilitation of the country.8 The next major action concerning outdoor recreation needs was in June 28, 1958, when Congress established the Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission (ORRRC) under Public Law 85-470. The Commission's purpose was to determine America's recreation needs, present resources available and needed in the future, and determine policies and programs to meet these needs.9 Although the study was basically fact finding in nature, it was the first major attempt to bring research 7Ibid., p. 32. 81bid., pp. 45-46. 9For a detailed description of the Commission's purpose and its findings see Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission, Outdoor Recreation for America (Washing- ton: Government Printing Office, 1962), pp. 1-10. 11 into the field of recreation. One of the chief recommen- dations of ORRRC was that "a systematic and continuing pro- gram of research is needed to provide the basis for wise decisions and sound management" and "one of the most urgent research needs is for more knowledge about direct benefit that individuals derive from outdoor recreation."10 ORRRC Study Report No. 24, Economic Studies of Out- I 11 I I door Recreation was one of several reports the CommISSIOn published on economics in recreation. The report, a group of essays, concerned itself with various economic aspects of outdoor recreation. Such aspects discussed are invest- ment, pricing, timing, benefit-cost evaluation, public- private relationships, and economic impact. This study is only one of twenty-seven studies ORRRC has undertaken in the field of recreation. However this report was one of the first of its kind to deal with recreation economics. One of the early advocates of more research in economics and recreation was Marion Clawson of Resources for the Future, Inc. Dr. Clawson has contributed greatly to the research needs in recreation. In Economics of Out- door Recreation, he brings together aspects of land use, management, and economics. Details of economic impact on loIbid., pp. 182-84. llOutdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission, Economic Studies of Outdoor Recreation, ORRRC Study Report 24 (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1962). 12 local areas associated with recreation is well presented. Regarding economic impact Clawson states that: . . . economic impact on the economy of local areas cannot be measured by total expenditures. But income, the number of jobs or employment, sales and value added (which is gross expenditures made in the area less the costs of the goods and services purchased by the firm making the sales to the recreationist) are all units which might be appropriate for one purpose or another. A saving fact is that these measures of the local economy tend to move together. That is, as sales rise, value added and employment generated also tend to rise. Clawson further goes on to point out that these measures do not always move in the same direction and may move in opposite directions. Although these problems may exist, it is still possible to use these methods to assess changes in the economy that are likely to occur with the development of recreation facilities.13 In 1959, Alexander H. Morrison conducted a study on the impact of industry in a small rural area in Virginia. Using a time series design, Morrison was interested in the changes in growth in manufacturing, commerce, employment patterns in major occupations, size and distribution of in- come, and the nature of the labor force. He found that when the industry moved into an area of agricultural base, significant changes took place. Changes were brought about 12Marion Clawson and Jack L. Knetsch, Economics of Outdoor Recreation (Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 19667, p. 239. 13Ibido’ P0 2400 13 in the income distribution functions of retail and whole- sale trade and the market places showed an increasing specialization in certain functions with growth and popu- lation.14 Herbert J. Funk in studying the effects of a manu- facturing plant on businesses in an Iowa community found that when a new industry is brought into a new community, it contributes greatly to the growth of that community. He found that the industry had a direct effect on sales in- creases as well as population growth. Not only did sales increase but employment and wages also increased.15 In 1965, Littlefield and Andrews produced a study entitled The Economic Impact of Recreation for the State of Wisconsin.16 Utilizing personal survey questionnaires to determine the contribution Wisconsin recreationists made on the economy of several counties, Littlefield and Andrews found that recreationists were responsible for 1,098 l4Alexander H. Morrison, "The Impact of Industry on a Rural Area in Northern Virginia: A Case Study of Develop- ment in Warren and Surrounding Counties, 1930-1954" (un- published Ph.D. dissertation, University of Virginia, 1959). 15Herbert J. Funk, "Effects of a New Manufacturing Plant on Business Firms in an Eastern Iowa Community" (un- published Ph.D. dissertation, Iowa State University, 1964), pp. 198-200. ‘ 16James E. Littlefield and Richard D. Andrews, The Economic Impact of Recreation, Wisconsin Development Series (Madison: State of Wisconsin, Department of Resource Development, 1965). 14 full-time equivalent employment positions in three Wisconsin counties. This number when projected for the State of Wis- consin showed that recreationists were responsible.for 61,240 full-time equivalent employment positions in 1963.17 The economic impact of Louisiana deer hunters on local communities was investigated by Paul H. Phillips in 1965.18 Phillips utilized a questionnaire survey of 2,059 hunters hunting in the Chicago Mills Management Area dur- ing the 1964 five-day deer hunting season. It was deter- mined, from a 60.8 per cent response, that "foreign" hunters, (non-residents of the immediate surrounding coun- ties), contributed $45.59 per individual hunting effort while local hunters contributed $13.55 per individual hunt- ing effort. The economic impact of hunters in this area was over one-quarter of a million dollars of which three- fifths was contributed by "foreign" hunters.19 Phillips concluded that the game management area was a great eco- nomic asset to the surrounding communities. An unpublished Ph.D. dissertation by Robert J. Kalter investigated the possibility of developing a model by which economic effects of state and federal based l7Ibid., p. 29. 18Paul H. Phillips, The Economic Impact of the Louisiana Deer Hunter on the Communities Surrounding the ChICago Mills Game Management Area (Baton Rouge: Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission, 1965). lgIbid., p. 21. 15 recreation projects on the economics of local political . . . 20 subd1Visions can be measured. He developed a model by which impacts could be measured using a modification of the Leontief input-output technique. Another study which probed into the field of eco- nomic impact of recreation was done by Rajender, Harmston, and Blood in 1967.21 The study is concerned with the existence of two economic markets within Teton County, Wyoming. These markets were classified as the local and the export markets. The researchers sought to determine the effects recreationists (the export market) had on the local market. It was found that with greater increase in the year around tourist trade, the greater was the influ- ence on the local economy and also on the decrease in the unemployment rate as the tourist season lengthened.22 Several private agencies have also become inter- ested and have produced studies on recreation impact. In 1968, one of the agencies, the Chilton Research Services produced a study entitled The Economic Impact of Recreation- Tourism in the Connecticut River Basin. Chilton determined 20Robert J. Kalter, "A Model to Estimate the Eco- nomic Effects of Water-based Recreation Projects on Local Political Subdivisions" (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wisconsin, 1966). ' 21G. R. Rajender, Floyd K. Harmston, and Dwight M. Blood, A Study of the Resources, People and Economy of Teton County (Laramie: University of Wyoming Press, 1967). 221bid., p. 55. 16 that the Connecticut River Basin, since its establishment by the United States Army Corps of Engineers, was responsi- ble for 5,200 full-time job equivalents, of which 900 were from resident expenditures, 2,500 from non-resident tourist expenditures, and 1,800 from vacation home occupants.23 These equivalent job figures were obtained by dividing appropriate income originating figures by average 1966 wages and salaries in services and retail establish- ments serving the recreator population for each of the six geographical components making up the Connecticut River Basin.24 In the past, the State of Michigan's natural re- source agencies have not conducted recreation impact studies. Several of these agencies are now either con- ducting or planning to undertake impact studies. The Re- search and Development Division of DNR and the Department of Park and Recreation Resources, Michigan State University are jointly conducting a study on the coho fishing impact in northern Michigan. The results of the study-will be published in 1970. It is hoped that other state agencies will recognize the need for conducting recreaction impact research and utilize the results of these studies in plan- ning of future projects throughout the state. 23Chilton Research Services, The Economic Impact of Recreation-Tourism in the Connecticut River Basin (Phila- delphia: Chilton Research Services, 1968), p. 71. 24Ibid. CHAPTER II THE STUDY AREA Before discussing the methodology used in this study, it is felt that a general description of the com— munity selected for investigation will present the reader with a better understanding of the physical resources of the area and its potential to meet future recreation needs. Location The county of Scenic in which the community of Lakeshore is located lies on the coast of Michigan with a major part of its boundary bordered by one of the Great Lakes.1 The county is predominantly marginal agricultural land with very little industry. Because of this lack of industry and its location on the lake, the county is one of the most scenic and popular resort areas in the state. Lakeshore lies within 300 miles of the major population centers in Michigan and many in adjacent states. It is accessible via major interstate highway routes and lThe pseudonyms "Scenic" and "Lakeshore" have been chosen by the author to represent the county and community respectively in which the study was undertaken. These names will be used throughout the study. 17 18 secondary roads. The countryside is rich in scenery and provides all varieties of recreational activity for both young and old. One of the most prosperous communities in the county is the Village of Lakeshore. Lakeshore is located in a sheltered area on the "Great Lake" and provides a major access site for recreation boating activities on it. Geography The surrounding countryside is characterized by rolling hills. Because of the topography, soil type (sandy loam), and location on the Great Lakes, the area is suit- able only for the production of fruit with cherries being the primary crop. The forested areas are predominantly coniferous along the sandy coast line with maple-beech forests characterizing the morainal plains. Climate Because of Lakeshore's proximity to the Great Lake, the community enjoys mild winters and cool summers. The average rainfall throughout the year is 32.51 inches and the average temperatures are 24.4°F in winter and 67.9°F in summer. Soil Type and Fertility The soil cover in the area is predominantly sandy to sandy loam. Because of this, the area is generally un- suitable for the production of grain crops. The primary 19 agricultural crops produced in the area are cherries, apples, asparagus, and strawberries. Cherries are the major crop. Land Ownership Most of the land within the community and in the surrounding countryside is privately owned. The village owns several parcels of land which are used for parking lots, dumps, and also recreation. The latter is lake front property and is used for swimming by local residents and tourists. Adjacent to the swimming beach is the public marina which is owned and operated by the village. The land ownership within a ten-mile radius of the community is primarily in private ownership. There are, however, three parcels of land owned by the public. These include an undeveloped lake front state park and two lake front township parks. One of the township parks offers picnicking and rustic primitive camping while the other park is a popular scenic picnic park. The state park is not accessible via public roads and therefore is generally not used. History Regional Starting in the 18th century and until recent times, the development of the area was characterized by three major stages. These stages influenced the growth and development 20 of the area and contributed greatly to the growth of the state. The three stages were fur trading, lumbering, and fruit growing. Today there is a fourth stage developing which will have a marked effect on the economic development patterns in the future, this stage is tourism. Fur trading.--During the 19th century fur trappers and traders, of French and English origin, were attracted to this region of the state in quest of the highly prized pelts of beaver. The beaver pelts were cherished by the European noble classes and were used as the stylish dress of the day. Because of this status, the beaver became the standard of exchange between the French, English, and colonial Americans in the New World. With the reduction of beaver in the region, other fur bearers were sought. However, as with the beaver, the population of these animals soon dwindled and became uneconomical to pursue. Although the fur trading industry was primarily responsible for the reduction of fur animals, another grow- ing industry soon developed and changed the habitat of the fur bearing animals. This was the lumber industry. Lumber industry.--Logging started in southern Michigan about 1830 and spread northward as southern-areas became depleted of marketable timber. Early sawmills sprang up along stream courses and outlets and boom towns evolved. Many of the towns that evolved with the lumber industry became major seaports on the Great Lakes and 21 exported lumber to the major industrial areas of the country--Chicago, Detroit, Erie, etc. Michigan became the leading state for lumber production during the Civil War and held this position until the 1890's.2 With the decline of lumbering in Michigan, many of the boom towns died and their inhabitants moved on West- ward or to the industrial centers of the country. Those who remained behind began farming the area but for the most part were unsuccessful. Fruit growing industry.--Although the area was a failure for the production of grains, it was soon noted that the area was very adaptable for the production of fruits. Thus with the closing of the 19th century, the reduction of lumbering was followed by the emergence of the fruit industry. In the early 1900's, cherry orchards sprang up across the countryside and cherries became the primary economic industry in the region. However, the in- dustry could not compete with the industrial centers of the state and country for the labor forces. As the industrial economy progressed, more farmers and workers in the region left to seek a "better life" in the cities to the south. As this continued, the area suffered labor and economic losses and the prosperity of the region soon declined. 2A. E. Wackerman, W. D. Hagenstein, and A. S. Michell, Harvesting Timber Crgps (New York: McGraw-Hill Inc., 1966), p. 210 22 Tourist industry.--With the coming of the industrial and technical revolution, new prosperity developed in the urban areas of the state. Collective bargaining by unions aided this development by providing more leisure time and greater disposable income for its members. The industrial sector, with its mass production techniques, produced a motorized vehicle which replaced the horse and buggy and opened the door for the emerging tourist. Thus, with greater mobility and more leisure time, the tourist sought to escape the complexities of city life and find solace along quiet streams and lake shores. This region, whose population once left for greater economic opportunity in the cities, returned to enjoy the natural wealth of undeveloped and unblemished lands. Thus, the natural areas in the sparsely settled areas of the region became assets to the local communities. Local Development The community of Lakeshore had its beginnings back in the 18th century. Its first inhabitants, the Chippewa Indians, used the sheltered area for one of their camps while hunting, fishing, trapping, and later as a fur trad- ing center with French, English, and American traders. As the boating traffic increased on the Great Lakes, the use of the Lakeshore area increased and an early settlement developed. Because of its locale, Lakeshore soon became a major destination point for merchants. 23 With the growth of lumbering in northern Michigan, Lakeshore became a seaport for the shipment of logs and lumber to the industrial centers of the Midwest. Enjoying economic growth, Lakeshore began to develop physically. A major aspect which accounted for Lakeshore's growth was the presence of the railroad in the community. With the coming of the railroad, other businesses followed bringing greater economic growth to the community. A car ferry service also began and provided ferry service across the Great Lake to other seaports. This service was later abandoned. It was during this time of development, 1863, that Lakeshore became the first county seat for Scenic County and remained so for twenty years. The first school house in the county was erected in Lakeshore in 1850. As the lumbering industry began to decline, resi- dents in the region, including Lakeshore, moved to other areas of the state and country in search of better oppor- tunities. Those who remained began to farm. It soon be- came evident that fruits would become the major crop in the county and fruit processing plants developed. Lake- shore was one of the few communities which had a processing plant. Fruit, primarily cherries, was processed and shipped from the plant by steamer ships and the railroad. As other forms of transportation came into their own, shipment via steamers ceased and Lakeshore became just another coastal community. Despite the presence of a small industry, cherry processing, Lakeshore was dying. The 24 bigger industrial centers to the south had been success- ful in competing for the labor force of the region and the community thus causing a decline in the population. Lake- shore's once glorious expectations for growth and develop- ment were no more. However, two factors, the scenic countryside and the development of tourism helped save the community. The Lakeshore area became recognized as a resort area in the late 1800's when businessmen from Chicago came via steamer to Lakeshore. These businessmen recognized the serenity of the area and a resort soon developed on one of the peninsulas in the area. Motor launch service became available to transport tourists from Lakeshore to the resorts. This service remained in existence from 1890 to the 1920's at which time other forms of transportation became available. As tourism grew, Lakeshore also grew and other in- dustries evolved. Commercial fishing for trout, smelt and perch and the sport fishing of the famed lake trout based itself in Lakeshore. The community became known far and wide in sporting circles for the catches of lake trout in the fishing grounds off its coast. This lasted until the 1940's when the sea lamprey appeared in the Great Lakes and the sport fishing for this species declined. The region also became known for its pleasant and relaxful atmosphere. With its strategic location on the 25 lake and its beautiful rolling countryside, the region be- came one of the most popular resort areas in the state. As the boating demand grew, facilities developed to meet this demand. Marina retail and service outlets flourished to satisfy the needs of Michigan's mobile tourists. Today the Village of Lakeshore is growing once again. The economy of the community is based on both small industry and consumer tourism. However, there is a growing demand for winter recreational activities and facilities in the state and this will also have a positive effect on community growth in the future. Marina facilities.--As the demand for boating facilities increased in the area, Lakeshore recognized the need to provide facilities for this class of recreationist. In the early 1950's, plans for a marina in Lakeshore be- gan.3 In May 1958, the Michigan Waterways Commission ap- proved the engineering plans for a marina. Construction of the facility began in 1959 and was open for business in summer of 1960. It was soon evident that the twenty slips in the marina were not adequate to serve the needs of the expand- ing boating class. New plans emerged to expand the marina 3A marina refers to a complete recreational harbor which includes the protective works, boating facilities and shore developments such as restaurants, hotels, boat ser- vices, etc. Marinas are considered to be a form of multi- purpose harbor and not a special installation. 26 from twenty slips to seventy-eight slips. This, however, would also require extending the breakwater further out into the bay. Approval for this expansion was granted by the Waterways Commission in 1968. The Village of Lakeshore applied for matching funds under the Public Works and Economic Development Act of 1965. A grant of 50 per cent of the cost of marina construction was approved by the ,Economic Development Administration (EDA). Other funding for this expansion came from the Waterways Commission, 40 per cent; and the remaining 10 per cent of the costs would come from revenue bonds sold by the Village of Lakeshore. Actual construction began in June 1969. Since the early 1800's, Lakeshore has adapted to the transitional stages of development. Its establishment as a fur trading center in the 1800's made it one of the earliest economic centers in northern Michigan. Throughout its development, it survived the transition between fur trading, lumbering, and fruit production. Several times the community was threatened with extinction but through the determination of its inhabitants it survived. Although it is still classed as a small community today, Lakeshore has become well-known, not just for.its fruit production but for its other natural resources which makes it a popular resort area for both young and old alike. Its harbor is only one of its assets, but it is 27 the one receiving the greatest demand for expansion to cope with the increasing amount of boating traffic in the harbor and on the lake. Although it is assumed that the harbor has had an impact on the community, it remains the task of the author to develop a method to measure this impact. CHAPTER III METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH Study Design Multiple Time Series Approach In order to study the effects the marina had on the local community, a multiple time series design was chosen to trace the growth of the community from 1955 to the present. This design provided a framework for the data collection and analysis.1 This approach normally requires at least two sites, one controlled and one experimental. Observations are made in both sites for a period of time before the experimental treatment is applied to one site and then continued for some time as shown in Figure 1. From the observed data, trends are established for each site and the effects of 1The design described here in not a true experi- ment. The experimenter does not exercise control over events occurring in the experiment and cannot assure random assignment of subjects to the control and experimental groups. The experimenter's efforts must be directed to- wards identification and control of plausible alternative hypotheses. This type of approach has been referred to as "quasi-experimental." See Donald T. Campbell, Experimental andQuasi-Experimental Design for Research (Chicago: Rand McNally and Co., 1963). 28 29 Time 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 etc. Site #1 0 0 0 OX 0 0 0 0 Site #2 0 O 0 0 0 O 0 0 Figure 1. Basic Experimental Design Showing Periods for Observations (0) and Treatment (X) of Signifi- cant Variable. other variables of interest are noted. Data are plotted and deflections in trends indicated by changes in slope and intercept are noted (see Figure 2). Net deflection unexplained by the alternate hypothesis or by the control site are assumed to have resulted from the effects of the treatment variable. Treatment experimental X No. of 1” fl” ,s—control kw” ‘ / / ”//’ Year Figure 2. Diagram of Observed Change in Employment After Treatment (X) Imposed on Experimental Site. 30 The multiple time series design possesses certain strengths and weaknesses which are as follows. Validity.--The validity of a technique is the de- gree to which it measures that which it is intended to mea- sure. In the present case, it is the degree to which the method isolates the effect of the construction and oper- ation of the marina on employment from the effects of other associated variables. A second aspect of validity is the degree to which results can be generalized to situations other than the specific one studied. The following factors jeopardize the validity of an experimental design. History.--The set of events, other than the experi- mental variable, occurring between the time of the initial observation and the second may make it difficult to identify the experimental variable's effects. In the matter of em- ployment, the construction of a new industrial plant, a general recession, or a period of easy credit may affect employment levels. In this type of design, the effects of historical events other than those being tested can be determined by observation of the control site to the extent that the event is pertinent to both sites. Obviously, a certain amount of history remains "uncontrolled." In the case of those events peculiar to one site. they can only be observed and recorded with a note of the likely effects. Recurring events such as the variation in the price and quantity of the fruit crop are controlled by the series 31 of observations preceding the experimental treatment for all those other variables that are observed concurrently with the variation in employment. Maturation.--Maturation is the process of organic change in the subjects under study. The employers may grow older or become less healthy and consequently less able to manage their business without help. Such an event may be of importance to the other communities in the area for the area suffers from a net out-migration made up primarily of the young. The design controls for maturation with a series of observations preceding the experiment treatment. A trend is established from which the treatment must be accompanied by a deflection in order to demonstrate probable effect. Testing.--Testing influences behavior to the extent that the subject is aware of it. For a number of reasons those taking the test or being observed are likely to per- form differently than they would ordinarily. In the case of the present study, these effects are partially controlled by the use of a control site and partially by the generally non-reactive nature of the observations. Selection-maturation interaction.--The selection- maturation interaction occurs when one of the two groups, control or experimental, may be suspected of a maturation rate different from that of the other. In such a case, the 32 maturation of a group may be misinterpreted as the experi- mental effect or it may obscure the experimental effect. In the cases used here, the time series tends to demon- strate any such differences and to permit them to be con- sidered in the interpretation of the results. Selection of subjects.--The selection of subjects for assignment to experimental and control groups can intro- duce error if care is not taken to minimize that possi- bility, preferably through random assignment. In the present study, the assignment is fixed and was originally self selection. By using a time series design, however, it should be possible to discover the magnitude of differences thus introduced and to take them into account. This is especially true since it is the deflection and not the magnitude of differences that will demonstrate the effects of the experimental variable. External validity.--The external validity is the degree to which the findings of the experiment can be generalized to populations other than the sampled one. In a logical sense, such generalizations cannot be defended, however, the persistent recurrence of an association over a range of varying conditions suggests some degree of uni- versality and it may be useful to accept the validity of the generalization. There are several effects that limit the generalization of the experiment and these are the 33 reactive effect of testing, the reactive effects of selection and the experimental variable, and multiple treatments. The reactive effect of testing occurs when the pre- test or observation sensitizes or desensitizes the subjects to the experimental variable causing them to react differ- ently than would an unpretested population. Such an effect is not controlled in this experimental design. The reactive effects of selection and the experi- mental variable occur when the population chosen for the study is different and related to the experimental variable than is the wider population. In the present study case, it was desirable to find two similar communities subject to the same general influences, one of which received the marina while the other did not. Restraints such as this limits the choice of sites and makes it difficult if not impossible to control for reactive effects of selection. It remains only to demonstrate any effects discovered in a sufficient number of diverse settings that their uni- versality becomes plausible. Multiple treatments where the same group of subjects are subjected to more than one experimental treatment opens the door to synergistic and antagonistic effects. That is, the effect of the treatment with another treatment may re- sult in gains greater or less than the sum of gains ex- pected when each treatment is applied independently. Unless recognized, the effects of a given treatment 34 may be incorrectly diagnosed. In the design discussed here, multiple treatments are not a factor. Archives.--Archives both public and private, will be the source of the largest part of data used in this study. Both sources are subject to shortcomings. The major shortcomings affecting the data are the possible systematic recording of incorrect information in the archives, failure in the recording of pertinent data, the manner in which information is recorded may change over time; and the preservation of such data may vary depending on the need for reference back to the records and the statutes of the state.2 Modification of the Time Series Design During the early design of this study, an effort was made to survey several sites in Michigan's lower penin- sula to find the area best suited to conduct this study. Several field trips were made by the research team to find the best area which would provide two compatible sites and still remain largely uninfluenced by the commerce of larger metropolitan centers. It was determined that, for one reason or another, there existed no two compatible sites for 2For a more detailed explanation of the above factors affecting internal and external validity see Donald T. Campbell, Experimental and Quasi-Experimental Designfor Research (Chicago: Rand McNally and Co., 1963), pp. 5, 6, 39—42. 35 the criteria established. Therefore, a single site was chosen to conduct the study. Because of the lack of suitable compatible sites to apply the multiple time series design, the community of Lakeshore was chosen to serve as both the control and experimental site. The period from June through November was selected as the experimental period since the harbor is only operational at that time and the period from December through May was chosen as the control period since the harbor is not in use and has no effect on business activity. Another reason for this approach is that the effects of the initial treatment, 1958, should clearly show changes in activity in subsequent years for the period June through November while the activity for the period December through May should remain unchanged. However, the effects of normal growth in the community would be observed. Survey Area To determine the impact the marina had on the com- munity, it was first necessary to restrict the boundaries of the area to include the major business section of the community. The present physical boundaries of the incor- porated Village of Lakeshore served as the boundary for the study. Characteristics of the survey area regarding 36 location, population, income, industry, and employment are described in the following sections. Population The county in which Lakeshore is located has had a rising trend in population growth since 1930 while the community of Lakeshore has shown a decline in population from 1940 to 1960 (see Figure 3).3 Data regarding popu- 1ation for Lakeshore prior to 1940 and that projected from 1960 on was not available in records reviewed. This de- cline in population for Lakeshore may have been due to the second World War, which brought the younger men into the armed services or to the larger industrial areas to work and support the war effort. Those men who went into the services may have chosen to take jobs in the industrial areas rather than return to their rural home town. It is expected that the population decline for Lakeshore will cease during the 1960's and change to a rising trend from 1970 to year 2000 as it has done for the projected township population (see Figure 3). The United States Bureau of Census served as the source for population data for the Village of Lakeshore. Because population census is held every ten years, no data was available for period after 1960. The next census will occur in 1970. 3U.S., Department of Commerce, Bureau of Census, Census of Population (Washington: Government Printing Office, 1900-1960). 37 Population 12,000‘ " / Projected / 11 0004 ’ f Recorded / / 10,000« ,’ 9,0004 8,0004 7,0004 6'000 t T 1 T """'"l’ "“1” "WV“ r j 1— v 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 200 Year County Population Township . 1 500 Population ' 600) Lakeshore . 1,400 r 1,300 Recorded Projected \ a I 500- \ , ’ - 1,200 \ I \/ P 1,100 400 t ~¢ : e ‘47 .4 e. : : 5 1,000 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Lakeshore Population Figure 3. Past and Projected Population Patterns for Lakeshore, the Township and the County. [Township data from Preliminary Population Projections for Small Areas in Michigan, by State Resource Planning DiviSion, Michigan Department off Commerce Working Paper No. 9, November 1966.] 38 Income The average per capita and household buying income for the Village of Lakeshore is unavailable, however, for the county the data is presented in Figure 4 showing the comparison over the years from 1954 to 1965.4 Industpy and Business The Village of Lakeshore is composed predominantly of small retail businesses which depend on the summer season for the greatest part of its trade. Most of the business activity takes place from June through September and some- times into November. The latter trend has developed only recently as a result of the coho fishing boom in Michigan. Most of the summer patrons for these businesses are summer residents, tourists, and migrant farm workers. With the advent of extensive mechanization in fruit harvesting, the migrant population has decreased, not necessarily in total numbers but in the length of time they spend in the area during harvesting. The businesses, however, have felt this decline in trade only slightly since the increase and promotion of tourism in the area has replaced the migrant farm laborers, to an extent, in the consumer market. The industrial sector of the community is composed of a fruit and vegetable cannery, a textile mill product industry, a chemical research plant, and a boat builder. 4Data extracted from Michigan Statistical Abstracts for respective years. 39 ”2800— .3 State of Michigan 2 2400- /United States 8 a "* 2000- g Scenic County -a 5‘16004 .Q m £1200« m m o 3.) 800-: I m , ’ Q. / 400 J 0 -_._ l- . _ n - T111111111T1r1rvITT11‘1 lTfi‘I’W‘I’fi‘T’f“. 1940 1950 1960 1970 m Scenic g 6000‘ 'County .. . / 3:» c 5000‘ \\ ' 2'” / ./ 22 - 88 4000‘ ./ o c .2“ 3000‘ u o D... T T 1 j 'j T T f‘l 1950 1960 1970 Figure 4. Per Capita Buying Income for Scenic County, State of Michigan, and the United States and Per Household Buying Income for Scenic County. [Source: Michigan Statistical Abstract, respective years.] 40 The cannery is the largest in operation and contributes greatly to the economy of the community. However, it is affected directly by the success or failure of the fruit production in the area. Perhaps the most significant single influence in the community's economy is the presence of a resort trailer court on the southern end of town. Although this resort complex is new--it opened in l967--it has had a major im- pact on the local business community. The court has ex- panded from 108 to 210 units in 1967 to some 343 units in 1968, and to 415 units in 1969. These units have been 98 per cent occupied during the summer months. The average length of stay for the trailer camper unit was seven days in 1967 with 4.98 members per unit and eight days with 5.2 5 The overall breakdown of in- members per unit in 1968. dustry and businesses in Lakeshore is seen in Figure 5 as coded in accordance with the Standard Industrial Classifi- cation code book published by the United States Bureau of Budget, 1963. The total numbers of such businesses are listed for years 1953 through 1968 to indicate growth and change in the community.6 5Data extracted from personal business records and statistical summary for each year's business of the trailer court owner and manager. 6There were approximately five retail outlets in Lakeshore for which records were unavailable. The records for several of the outlets were destroyed after the outlets went out of business. There were also several outlets which would not provide information to the research team. Figure 5. 41 Group Fin Fisheries General Building Construction Canned Fruits & Vegetables Textile Mill Products n.c.c. Chemical & Allied Products Boat Building & Repairing Building Materials Dealer Paint, Glass, 5 Wallpaper Dry Goods & General Merchandise Grocery Store Retail Bakeries Oil Products (home) Gasoline Service Stations Marina-Boatyards Children & Infants Wear Household Appliances Radio & Television Store Eating Establishments Drinking Establishments Drug Store Antique & Secondhand Dealers Florists Gift & Souvenir Shops Commercial Savings Bank Insurance Agents, Brokers, & Service Tourist Courts and Motels Trailer Parks Recreation Camp Beauty Shop Barber Shops Paint Shop Physicians Dentists Osteopaths General Medical Facilities Hospitals Elementary & Secondary Schools Libraries Churches Personal Services City Government (General). Marina (Public Operation) mvmWmeOHNMV‘mwt‘w mmmmmmmkomxoxokoxokokoxo mmmmmmmmmmmammmm HHrhfiflHHthflflflflerH 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l l l 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l l 1 1 1 1 1 l l 1 l l 1 l 1 1 l l 1 l 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 l 1 l 1 1 1 1 l l 1 1 l 1 1 l 1 l l l l 1 l 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 l l l 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 l 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l l l l l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 2 2 2 l 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 1 1 l 1 l 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 l 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.1 1 1 1 1 of Lakeshore According to the Standard Industrial Classification Code, U.S. Bureau of Budget, 1963. Breakdown of Industry and Retail Business in the Community 42 Employment and Unemployment Because of the nature of the retail business patterns, seasonality, a large portion of the summer work force is part-time, working up to thirty hours per week, and overtime for regular full-time employees including owners. During winter months, much of the work is done by the business owners and several employees which may be full- or part-time. A large portion of the part-time labor force has been regarded as underemployed by the Office of Economic Opportunity, which if jobs were available would be full-time employees. It must be pointed out that some of the under- employed members of the community, capable of being fully employed have chosen to be part-time employees. A major part of this group is composed of the resident Indian popu- lation of Lakeshore as well as other residents.7 Because of this composition, the data collected and recorded will be in the form of total man hours worked monthly for the years 1955 through 1968. Procedure The necessary field work began on June 10, 1969 and lasted until September 10, 1969. During this time, data were collected via personal interview with business owners and managers, and the viewing of personal business 7Personal interviews with members of this group. 43 records to obtain statistical figures for total monthly employment (man hours), gross sales, and attendance. For each of the businesses directly affected by harbor users, both gross sales and employment were obtained where possible. Establishments which did not appear to be affected by the marina furnished just employment data. These establishments were identified by interviewing each retail outlet to determine if their business catered to or depended upon boaters. It was assumed that certain outlets such as the fruit processing plant and textile plant and post office, etc., would not be affected by boaters there- fore only employment data was necessary. Trailer courts, resort camps, and the public harbor provided attendance statistics for their respective businesses. During the collection of employment figures, the use of a wage/time (dollar/hour) equivalent table was developed to extract man hours from wages paid per worker for the month (Appendix D). This table was developed be- cause many businesses did not record total hours each em- ployee worked, only the salary or wage paid at the end of the pay period. However, it should be noted that where a straight salary was paid, the employee hours were set but overtime was not recorded. This occurred in several cases, however, the employer usually stated the time criteria for which the salary was based. Employers paying wages for part-time help usually based this on the minimum wage as set by the government. 44 These wages were pretty much standard for the retail establishments. If an employee is a recurring employee, returning every summer, his hourly wage was generally an increment, e.g., $.05, higher than a new employee just starting. The Michigan Employment Security Commission (MESC) was another source of data regarding wages paid by employers when such information could not be obtained from the employer himself. Gross sales figures were recorded quarterly from reports maintained, in accordance with state law, by businessmen or their book accountant. Only those establish- ments directly affected by marina users were recorded, such as grocery and drug stores, etc. To determine the effects the migrant population has on the business employment, it was necessary to obtain a list from the county agent of fruit growers in the area, who hired migrant laborers. Interviews were undertaken, to obtain the numbers of laborers the fruit growers hired each year back to 1955. It was found that the growers generally hired the same number of farm laborers every season but laid them off at different times depending on the success or failure of the fruit crop and also corresponding with the closing date for acceptance of fruit by the local fruit processing plant. Additional migrant labor statistics were sought from the area farm labor office. The branch offices are set up along key entrance routes into the area to keep 45 track of the number of laborers seeking employment and also to provide information to the migrant laborer as to who is hiring. The tourist industry plays a major role in the economy of the community. The attendance records of motels and resorts in the area was chosen as one means of record- ing the number of overnight tourists coming into the area. Since this method of data collection could not control the transient tourist, camper or relatives/friends visiting residents for a period of time, it was determined that traffic counting records maintained by the Highway Depart- ment could provide data which would show the changes in traffic into the area. In seeking to determine the difference in summer and winter resident population, several sources were con- sulted. The local post office which rented boxes and handled general delivery mail was interviewed to obtain data regarding changes in box rentals during the year. The local school records in the community were reviewed to ob- tain the number of permanent residents in Lakeshore year round. Additional supporting statistics were sought from the utility companies servicing the area. However, because of the company's reduced rates for limited use hookups, data for summer resident p0pulation from this source was unavailable. Also their method of recording customers did 46 not provide for the segregation of statistical data for a specific locale. The Waterways Commission and the Harbormaster of the Lakeshore marina were the sources for data involving marina attendance. These were the primary sources of direct marina impact. Due to the casual recording of data in the early years of operation, figures may show an under estimate of the actual attendance or use of the new marina. Limitations The methods employed in data gathering during the time period were affected by certain uncontrollable circum- stances. Because of man's social development, control over certain actions or fears that are not easy to achieve. Be- coming accepted by all members of the community and obtain- ing their assistance throughout the study was not always possible. Conservative attitudes and fears could not al- ways be put aside especially if it regarded personal busi- ness. Several of the businesses in Lakeshore would not provide information to the researchers for one or several of the following reasons: 1. Individual business owners did not want their records viewed by any agency which was affili- ated with state, federal, or local governments. 47 2. The information on gross sales, wages, or employment hours were their business and no one else's. 3. The belief that researchers could obtain such data from the archives of the federal or state government, since they pay taxes and report business transactions to those agencies. 4. People felt they were being over studied and over surveyed (questionnaires). 5. A general distrust of researchers and those who would have access to statistics if they were provided. 6. Certain business Operators felt that since the marina did not affect their business, their records would be of no help to the study. 7. Records on some businesses were lost or destroyed by fire. 8. Since the business was small and number of employees limited, records were not maintained. The author believes that number five and number one, in that order were the most important reasons information was not given. Of the statistical data obtained, several limi- tations as to its accuracy may be questioned. The data collected on salaried employees work hours were based on the average time the employee would spend on the job for the pay period. During the summer months the salaries of 48 these individuals would generally be raised since the de- mand for services by the consumers, tourists, farmers, etc., were greater; therefore, more work hours were re- quired. Statistical data obtained using wage-hour conversion may be subject to some error since the employers questioned stated that they used the basic minimum wage set by state. However, it was later found that certain businesses would pay under minimum wage for the very unskilled labor. How- ever documentation of this is not available therefore the data collected under this method employed minimum wage. A few of the smaller businesses, with one or two employees, who did not keep records, were able to provide data from memory. Since these establishments were the older and well established businesses over time, the accuracy of their recollection can be accepted primarily because they worked on a straight forty-hour-week in winter and forty-eight-hour-week in summer. The use of state sales tax records was also con- sidered. However, the time period of its existence did not provide data for the years of specific interests to the study and therefore was not useful. One of the problems found after field work began was that cooperation expected from the business establish- ments decreased as the vacation or tourist season pro- gressed. Since most of the businesses depended primarily 49 on the summer trade for their livelihood, the imposition of this study on their businesses was recognized. Al- though most employers tried to provide as much assistance as possible, others were often too busy or did so at the expense of their own time. It is recognized that the gathering of data from the major businesses for this study would have been more easily accomplished during the off- season period of winter and spring. For the seasonal businesses, such as gift and souvenir shops, etc., this would not have been possible since the owners are generally summer residents only and reside in other areas or states during the off-season. Utilizing these procedures, data was obtained and recorded throughout the summer and fall. Analysis of data began in November and results are expressed in the succeed- ing chapter. CHAPTER IV ASSEMBLED DATA This chapter is devoted to the summarization and analysis of field data collected during the period from June 1969 to February 1970. Presentation of the data will take the form of graphs, tables, and other figures to illustrate the relationship and effects of the variables studied as they relate to their impact on community employ- ment levels. The data presented is the pertinent recorded sta- tistical information for the years 1955 through 1968. Particular emphasis will be placed on the employment growth of relevant and non-relevant sectors within the community.1 The material in this chapter will follow the following se- quence: (1) gross sales of selected retail outlets as an indicator of activity, (2) cherry production and the mi- grant labor force, (3) seasonal resident effects, (4) lRelevant sectors are those business establish- ments which are affected by boaters using the harbor. Non- relevant sectors are those business establishments which are not generally affected by boaters using the harbor. 50 51 tourist and other recreational impact, (5) effects of the harbor, and (6) employment patterns in the community. Gross Sales of Selected Retail Outlets During the data collection phase of this study, an attempt was made to gather data relating to consumer ex- penditures, in the form of gross sales, from selected relevant retail outlets most affected by the boaters using the harbor. This data was collected in anticipation that a relationship between boater expenditures and an increase in employment positions or an increase in employee work hours for the retail outlets could be shown. The selection of the retail outlets from which this data would be sought was based on the following: 1. The frequency with which the outlet was used by the boaters in the harbor. 2. The retail outlet's designation as a relevant outlet whose services were normally sought by the boating recreationist. The frequency the outlet was used by the boaters was deter- mined by interviewing the retail merchants to determine to what extent their services were used by boaters. Another circumstance which later influenced selection of a repre- sentative number of retail outlets for this data, was the owner's decision to provide this information to the re- search team. Of the seven outlets interviewed, only three would provide information concerning gross sales. Of these 52 three outlets, two of them proved to be the outlets most frequently used by boaters because of the services they provide. The author believes these two outlets are indi- cators of the business activity as it actually is in the community. The gross sales information provided by the three outlets are recorded in Table 1. Retail Outlet "A" pro- vided data back to 1955 while "B" and "C" could provide data only as far back as 1961 and 1963, respectively. There are several reasons for this. In the case of retail outlet "B," the records of business activity was retained for a period of seven years, in accordance with existing statutes, then discarded. Retail outlet "C" provided records on his business activity back to 1963 when he assumed ownership of the business. The previous owner was contacted to obtain information on business activity prior to 1963, however, the previous owner proved to be uncooper- ative to the researchers and would not provide any assist- ance whatsoever. Figure 6 shows the growth of the retail outlets over the years and how they compare with each other. It should be noted that there is a distinct trend in that each outlet is growing at an increasing rate during both winter and summer seasons. 2The breakdown of data into seasons of the year, winter and summer, was done so in an attempt to segregate the year-round resident from the summer populations. The 53 TABLE 1. Total Gross Sales for Selected Retail Outlets in Lakeshore, January 1955-December 1968. Retail Outlet Year A B C 1968 $272,234 $151,187 $276,516 1967 243,936 122,299 228,637 1966 228,501 118,883 298,248 1965 166,108 109,291 174,693 1964 159,258 107,769 149,523 1963 150,396 100,154 138,934 1962 149,852 103,930 a 1961 135,114 3,880 a 1960 124,296 a a 1959 127,523 a a 1958 127,473 a a 1957 115,935 a a 1956 90,331 a a aData for these establishments were unavailable for the years indicated. 54 Gross Sales in $1,000 75 4 Winter 50 - Outlet A o“’" , /. o.,.---"OutletC 25 -__./' I T T T V 7 I 200 4 Summer 150 a 100 - .x- “’-\./ l / ° ' 0/. 50 - 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 6. Gross Sales for Selected Retail Outlets in the Community of Lakeshore. 55 Retail outlet "A" shows a decline in business activity during the 1959 and 1960 winter seasons and the 1960 summer season. It was noted that during this same time period there also existed a decline in employment work hours at the local fruit processing plant. In looking over the Michigan figures for cherry production for these years, and for the year 1958, it was noted that cherry production had dropped for the years 1958, 1960, and 1963, Figure 7.3 This drop in cherry pro- duction may have affected business sales for outlets "A" and "C" since both migrant laborers and factory employees use the services of these outlets. Unfortunately, sta- tistics on the numbers of migrant laborers and the pro- duction of cherries in the Lakeshore area are not available to support the above assumptions.4 Therefore the author can only assume that the years of low cherry production winter statistics consist of monthly statistics from December the previous year through May while the summer figures represent data for the months of June through November. 3Donald J. Ricks, Economic Relationships in Red Tart Cherry Marketing, 1955-1967, Agricultural Economics Report No. 94 (East Lansing, Mich.: Department of Agri- cultural Economics, Michigan State University, June 1968), p. 27. 4The local fruit processing plant was unable to provide production data for the years 1955 through 1968. This information was also sought from the State of Michigan Agricultural Department and the local USDA office. Neither agency could produce such statistical information. 56 Production in 1,000 tons 250 200 150 100 50 q -I Michigan I l I j I I l I I 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 7. Red Tart Cherry Production for Michigan and Great Lakes Region. 57 reduced the migrant labor force in the area and conse- quently reduced the consumer spending of this group. More accurate consumptions could have been made if data were available for retail outlets "B" and "C" back to the base year.5 Additional comments concerning Figure 7 will be made throughout the remainder of this chapter dur- ing the discussion of tourism and harbor activity. Cherry Production and the Migrant Labor Force The most dominant factor influencing employment patterns in the "Lakeshore" area is the success or failure of cherry production. This has been particularly true for the years prior to 1966. Since 1966, the cherry crop has had a declining influence on employment activity in the community. This influence can be seen by comparing the fluctu- ation of cherry production tonnage (see Figure 7) with em- ployment for the fruit processing plant (see Appendix B), and with the total employment figures for the community (see Appendices E and F). It will be noted that as the production of cherries dropped, there was also a drop in employment for the fruit processing plant and also for the community during the summer season. In some instances, the 5Several attempts were made to obtain such data from the Michigan Employment Security Commission (MESC), however, the agency has not been able to provide this information. 58 drop in employment for the community lagged a year behind the drop in cherry tonnage harvested. This is particularly evident for the year 1959. Since 1966, the production of cherries has had less influence on total employment in the community. The various factors involved in this change will be discussed in suc- ceeding sections. During the period data were collected on employment at the fruit processing plant, an attempt was made to deter- mine the size of the migrant labor force in the area during the summers of the years concerned. Several sources were investigated which could possibly provide this information. The county Farm Labor Office was contacted as a source for statistical data on migrant laborers in the Lake- shore area. After considerable investigation, it was found that such data was not recorded nor available from any of the state or federal agricultural agencies. The office suggested we go directly to each orchard owner in the Lake- shore area to obtain this information. Before going directly to the orchard owners, the research team contacted the county agricultural agent for assistance. Although the county agent did not maintain records on migrant laborers, he was able to provide the author with a list of fruit growers in the Lakeshore area. He suggested that we wait until the end of the summer be- fore contacting the growers. The reason being that many of 59 growers would be busy harvesting their crop and would not be able to spend time with the research team. In September, the research team interviewed the fruit growers for their migrant labor employment statistics. It was found that the growers did not maintain records on the number of laborers hired nor the length of time the laborers worked. The growers stated that they either hired the same number of migrant laborers each year but released them at different times or they hired a head picker who controlled the hiring of additional laborers to pick the fruit. These workers were also released at different times depending on the closing data for accepting cherries by the fruit processing plant. Although the number of migrant laborers employed each season in the Lakeshore area was not available, it was determined that their presence was controlled indirectly by the fruit processing plant. Further attempts to obtain this information involved getting the production data from the processing plant. The author believes that the cherry tonnage processed for each season could be used as an index of the migrant labor force in the area. In 1967, many orchard owners started to use cherry shakers to harvest their crop. Although the use of shakers in harvesting cherries was limited in 1967, many more orchard owners shifted to this mechanized method of har— vesting in 1968. The principle reasons given by the owners for this change were: 60 1. Labor costs were becoming too high to hire migrant laborers. 2. Costs involved in providing improved housing facilities as required by recent new laws were beyond the economic resources of the grower. 3. The improvement of mechanized harvesting methods proved cheaper in harvesting the cherry crop than hiring migrant labor. Most of the fruit growers still using migrant laborers stated they would probably shift to the mechanized harvesting method in the future because of the above men- tioned reasons. When this change of harvesting methods occurs, the loss of the migrant labor consumer group will be felt by many of the retail outlets in the community. However, there is another consumer group which has been growing steadily each summer which will ease the loss in business activity created by the loss of migrant labor consumer group. This consumer group is comprised of the summer recreationists and tourist and will be discussed in another section. The Seasonal Resident The seasonal resident in Lakeshore is not con- sidered a tourist and thus will be discussed in this section. Since it was impossible to obtain statistical data on this group, the effects it has on the employment can therefore only be surmised. 61 Most of the summer residents in the Lakeshore area have property in an exclusive private resort peninsula a few miles outside the community. There are several seasonal cottages within the city limits, but these are few in number and have a small economic impact compared to the area men- tioned above. Several attempts were made by the author to obtain factual information on this group. The post office was the first source contacted to obtain box rental figures over the years. The postmaster proved to be very cooperative, however, it was found that the post office had only 200 boxes for seasonal rentals and these have all been rented every summer since before 1950. In questioning the post- master on general delivery records, it was found that the bulk of mail handled through general delivery made it im- possible to maintain any records other than total pieces handled. Most of the general delivery mail handled was for the migrant laborers. The next sources investigated were the utility com- panies servicing the area to determine the change in util- ity connections over the years and by season. It was found that the companies could not provide such data because the information was only recorded on a regional basis.. The utility companies also offered special rates for the seasonal residents. These rates were for limited use of the utilities during the winter season. The amount of seasonal residents receiving special rates were, likewise, 62 recorded on a regional basis and therefore not very useful to the researchers. A final effort was made by contacting the private resort club. The author interviewed the resident manager in September 1969. It was found that the resort had been in existence since the late 1800's and that it has remained exclusively private since that time. The only way an indi- vidual could become a member and property owner, was to be born or marry into the club. The sale of cottages is con- trolled by the organization and often remains a closed market. Most of the cottages are used by as many as three generations of the family throughout the summer, and often during the same time period. Most of the cottages are not winterized and therefore are not occupied during the winter months. It was not possible to obtain any further infor- mation about the residents, nor was it possible to inter- view them. The area is well patrolled to insure complete privacy for the residents. The author was permitted to take a drive through the area and found that the value of the homes, in most cases, was well over $80,000. This valuation was later supported via conversation with the county treasurer and tax assessor. Although no figures were available to determine the impact this group has on the community, it is assumed to be considerable. Many of the reasonal jobs available to 63 Lakeshore residents are at the private resort. Jobs such as gardeners, caretakers, and servants are taken by Lake- shore residents for the summer. The spending patterns of this group alone could have a substantial impact on the community. Tourist and Recreation Impact Since the early 1800's, Lakeshore has enjoyed the reputation of being a popular resort area in the state. In the early years, the area was served by steam ships and the railroad. As the automobile came into its own, the popu- larity of the Lakeshore area grew. In the 1930's and early 1940's, Lakeshore enjoyed the business activity created by both sport and commercial fishing. When the lamprey invaded the lakes, the sport fishing camps died and many commercial fishermen went out of business. The impact this group had was gone. However, a few years later, tourism began to have more influence on Lakeshore's businesses. There are presently three groups of tourists which have an effect on business activity in Lakeshore. These groups are comprised of the overnight tourist (having accommodations in the area), the transient tourist (tour- ists just passing through the area) and the recreating boater, who may be either overnight or transient. This section will discuss the information obtained concerning the overnight and transient tourist. The influence of 64 the recreating boaters will be examined in a following section. Overnight Tourist The Lakeshore area has five service establishments which accommodate the overnight tourist. Among these businesses are cottage and cabin facilities, a motel, and a travel trailer court. The three cottage and cabin out- lets were established prior to 1955. The motel came into existence in 1962 and the travel trailer court opened in 1967. Table 2 reflects the total number of overnight guests using the facilities for each year shown while Figure 8 illustrates graphically the number of guests re- corded by each establishment. Since 1963, there has been a rise in use of service establishments "A" and "D." It is believed that establish- ment "B" experienced a similar growth because in 1968 it registered 253 guests (see Table 2). Unfortunately sta- tistical information for this establishment for the years 1959 through 1967 was lost and the owner could not provide an estimate of the number of guests accommodated. Service establishment "A" came under new ownership in 1960 and the records of attendance kept by the previous owners was destroyed thus no figures are available for years prior to 1960. Establishment "C" illustrates considerable fluctu- ations in its quest accommodation over the years. It does 65 TABLE 2. Number of Overnight Guests at Five Establishments in the Lakeshore Area, 1955 Through 1968. Establishment Year A B C D E 1955 a 102 87 0 0 1956 a 127 50 0 0 1957 a 119 58 0 0 1958 a 90 43 0 0 1959 a b 99 0 0 1960 70 b 89 0 0 1961 81 b 84 0 0 1962 83 b 50 110 0 1963 75 b 70 107 0 1964 79 b 90 149 0 1965 90 b 48 171 0 1966 88 b 58 205 0 1967 127 b 78 211 10,953 1968 121 253 34 189 18,660 a . Records of preVious owner destroyed. bInformation recorded for the period was lost. 66 Overnight Visitor Stays / E0 20,000 / ./ 10,000 MW 250 - ' B- a :1 \ m ’3 ,’ \ 1:13 I \ 200 ‘ “4g ’ \ D. on) m I «so .5. ’ H I m I z I I 150 - I I I ° ' A. I , - J 100 E \ °- .' \ I‘ \ I ° 0 \ 0A. \, I \ / °\ ./ \ \ ' / ° \\ /.\ I .v/ -\v/ . \ 50 - ’ V ’\ \ C. O 'I T 1 I I I T 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 8. Overnight Visitor Stays for Resort Accommodation Outlets in the Lakeshore Area. 67 not correspond with the growth enjoyed by outlets "A" and "D." One of the possible reasons for this is that this establishment depended on the sport fishing in the past and did not make much effort to cater to the general tour- ist or vacationer. Also, this outlet is located several miles out of town and is not on a heavily traveled tourist route. In 1967, establishment "E" opened and had a tre- mendous growth rate for the succeeding two years. This establishment is very popular for the trailer tourist. It has had a marked effect on the business activity in the community. It is expected to continue having an increasing influence on the business activity in the community in the future since the outlet's facilities are not completed and will not be for several more years. The author believes that the services provided by establishment "E" will help to increase its popularity and will also help to increase the reputation of the area as both a summer and winter play area. If this assumption proves to be true, many retail outlets in Lakeshore will enjoy a year-round business operation. Several reasons for this expected trade increase are: (l) the popularity of skiing in the area coupled with the expansion of the number of skiing facilities in the vicinity, and (2) the rise in popularity of snow- mobiling and the plans for snowmobile trails throughout 68 the area.6 The author believes that this particular establishment will take the lead in drawing an increasing number of tourists into the area who will, in a short time, replace the migrant laborers as the major summer consumer group. Transient Tourist An attempt was made to determine the numbers of transient tourists (tourists who just drive through the area sightseeing and use accommodations outside the Lake- shore area), visiting the area during the summer months. The Michigan State Highway Department was contacted to obtain traffic counts for the Lakeshore area over the past years. In interviewing members of the Department, the author found that only traffic count estimates were avail- able. These estimates were average daily counts for the entire year. There were no recordings for such data on seasonal basis. Consequently, this information was not useful to the research team in separating the effects of this group. However, the average daily traffic counts have increased from 500 in 1955 to 800 in 1960. It is pre- sumed that the summer daily traffic count is considerably higher than the seasonal average count. Unfortunately, the information does not permit one to estimate the amount 6Establishment "E" recently acquired a snowmobile franchise and also rents snowmobiles for recreation. 69 of transient tourists passing through the community nor any impact this group may have on business activity. Effects of Harbor The publically built small boat harbor was opened to boating traffic in 1960. At that time, there were no Slips and the boater had to moor directly to the pier. Within the next few years, the harbor had twenty slips to accommodate the boater.‘7 In 1964, this harbor had become known and the boat- ing traffic began to increase. It was at that time the village decided to hire a seasonal full-time harbormaster to take care of the boating traffic. When the harbormaster took over the operation of the harbor in 1964, he initiated the first log book system for registering vessels using the facility. In the log, the following information was recorded: the name of the boat, date of entry and departure, owner's name and address, size of craft, number of passengers, length of stay at the harbor, last harbor visited if travelling on the lake and the next intended port. From the information recorded in the log, the author was able to show the growth of boating activity in the harbor since 1964. Prior to 1964, no official log was maintained and estimates on the number of boaters using 7Interview with village engineer who was responsi- ble for the building of the facilities. 70 the harbor were varied and not reliable. The author later contacted the Waterways Commission to determine if figures had been recorded for those years. The Commission was un- able to provide data for years prior to 1964. Later it was discovered that Professional Engineering Associates (a planning and consultant firm in Birmingham, Michigan) did a study on the harbor in 1967 and produced a graph showing the numbers of people and boats served by the Lakeshore harbor since its construction in 1958. Figure 9 shows boating activity in the harbor from 1958 to 1968. The author extracted the number of people served by the harbor for the period 1964 to 1968 from the log, while the consultant firm provided data back to 1958.8 In Figure 9, there is a difference in the numbers of people using the harbor facilities, as recorded by consultant firm and the author.. The author believes that this difference may be attributed to the fact that the consultant firm may have also included the residents of Lakeshore who rented a slip for the entire season. The author did not include these individuals because they did not use all the avail- able services daily. The Waterways Commission has estimated that a marina takes about five years to grow and mature to_a point 8For harbor log summary, see Appendix C. 71 Total numbers of people and boats served 1500‘ >~I H H m .a o 'H'U o 1000- 1:2 'People 00) Q: “30 c -a H m z 500% Boats 19581960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 9. Total Number of People and Boats Served by the Lakeshore Public Marina. [1958 to 1966 trend was estimated by the Professional Engineering Associ- ates, Birmingham, Michigan; 1964 to 1968 data was extracted from actual recordings in log.] 72 where its facilities are fully used.9 In the case of Lake- shore, maturity would be reached in 1965. In 1964, a second private marina, with individual berths, opened just a quarter mile north of the present public marina. These two facilities cater to the boater who desires to rent berths for the season and use their boats on weekends and vacations. The public marina, how- ever caters to the transient boater or the boater who just may use the facility for a week or two during his vacation. From Figure 9, it appears that the numbers of boats using the public marina are beginning to taper off for the years 1965 to 1966. Despite the surge in the number of people using the harbor in 1967, according to the author's figure, the figure drops in 1968 which may indicate the beginning of maturity for the harbor. However, this cannot be substantiated for in 1969 the public marina was closed because the village began construction on the expansion of the harbor. During 1967 and 1968, the harbor master employed an assistant to work at the harbor during his absence. The attendant was paid from the harbormaster's own seasonal earnings. However, with the expansion from the original twenty slips to seventy-eight slips, it is expected that the village will hire at least one harbormaster plus two 9Estimate based on personal interview with Water- ways Commission Director and Chief Engineer in March 1969. 73 harbor attendants to operate the facility during the summer months.10 Although the hiring of one man, the harbormaster, is a direct impact of the marina, it is the indirect impact on community employment that is most significant. This in- direct impact depends on the total number of people using the marina and the total length of time they stay there in their boats. The total number of boating man days is shown in Figure 10 for the years 1964 to 1968. The figure was obtained by multiplying the number of people registered by the total length of stay of that particular craft as recorded in the official log book.11 The indirect impact of the marina will be dis- cussed in greater detail in the following section. Employment Patterns of the Community During the period June through September 1969, forty-eight proprietors of business establishments in Lake- shore were interviewed. Of these forty-eight businesses, forty-four were able to provide data to the research team. Four of the proprietors either would not or could not pro- vide data. The data provided by the forty-four loThis estimation is based on the marina operating from six o'clock in the morning to eleven o'clock in the evenings seven days per week. Such a three-man operation was observed for a neighboring community's public harbor of refuge with less than half the number of slips. 11See the log summary in Appendix C. 74 Total boating man days 30001 >1 H H m '3 2400. :v-I'U 4:0 4:: O (D Q. to O .2 1800- H o 2 1200. 600« l I I F r 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 10. Total Boating Man Days for the Lake- shore Public Marina as Extracted from Harbormaster's Log Entries. 75 establishments was not complete in all cases. Several of the establishments could only provide data for the seven preceding years, the legal requirement for retaining busi- ness records. These business establishments were divided into relevant and nonrelevant sectors to separate those establish- ments which provided services to the boater. Of the forty- four establishments who responded, twenty-two of these were found to be in the relevant sector and twenty-two were found to be in the non-relevant sector. Of the four establish- ments which did not respond, three were found to be in the relevant sector and one in the non-relevant sector. Each responding business provided total employment hours monthly for every year from 1955 through 1968 or as 12 After all information far back as their records could go. was compiled, the total employment, in man hours, was deter- mined and plotted. Figure 11 illustrates the total yearly employment, in man hours, for the Village of Lakeshore from 1955 to 1968. With the exception of 1959 and 1960, the trend of total employment has been steadily increasing over the years. The two-year downward trend in 1959 and 1960 was reversed in 1961. This may be attributed to a very successful cherry harvest for the year, since l958,_1959, 12Summaries of total employment hours are shown in Appendices E and F for each year according to the SIC codes for relevant and nonrelevant sectors. 76 Employment in 1,000 man hours 400 . 300 - 200 'I 100 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 11. Total Employment for the Village of Lakeshore for the Period 1955 Through 1968. 77 and 1960 were relatively poor years, as was the year 1963 (see Figure 7). At the same time, summer employment at the fruit processing plat was at its lowest for 1959 and 1960 (see Appendix B). Cherry production for Michigan, after its all time high in 1964, dropped rapidly during the years 1965 to 1967 (see Figure 7). One possible reason why the employment for 1966 (see Figure 11), did not dr0p further was the fact that both the hospital and medical clinic had a rise in employee man hours worked for those years (see Appendix E, SIC codes 8060 and 8061). These service establishments play a vital role in the community, not only for the professional ser- vices they provide but also for the amount of employment they have created in the community. The total employment will be separated into rele- vant and non-relevant employment. A further breakdown will be made to show the summer and winter employment for each sector. Finally, an effort will be made to separate the effects the harbor has had on generating new employment positions in the community. Non-Relevant Sector The non-relevant sector is comprised of those business establishments not affected by the harbor. Figure 12 illustrates the employment for the non-relevant sector. It is illustrated to show the relationship with the total employment for the community (see Figure 11). 78 Employment in 1,000 man hours 260‘ 2404 220- 200. 1804 1604 140: 1204 100. 80 r 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 12. Total Employment in the Non-relevant Sector for the Community of Lakeshore. 79 This was further broken down to show the winter and summer employment for this sector (see Figure 13). It appears that the employment fluctuation in this sector coincides very closely with the success or failure of the cherry crop produced for the year. Since boaters do not utilize the services of the non-relevant sector, little more will be said about it. Attention will now be focused upon the impact the harbor has had on the employment in the relevant sector. Relevant Sector The relevant sector is comprised of those business establishments whose products or services are generally sought by the boaters in the harbor. Such establishments as grocery and drug stores, restaurants, bars, marine supply outlets, gift shops, etc. are included in this group.13 Twenty-two of the twenty-five businesses in this sector provided assistance to the research team. As seen in Figure 14, the total employment for this sector shows a continual growth rate for each year with the exception of the year 1960, a bad year for cherry production. From this total employment for the year, seasonal employment bases were established. Figure 15 illustrates 13See Figure 5 and Appendix E for listing of groups included in this sector. 80 Employment in 1,000 man hours 180‘ Summer 1601 140. 1201 100 1 - --" Winter 801 .//"\u//\\\// 60. 404 ' 1 1 l l l 1 1 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 13. Total Employment in the Non-relevant Sector for Winter and Summer Each Year, for the Community of Lakeshore. 81 Employment in 1,000 man hours 200- 180: 160- 1401 120- 100- 801 60- 40. 204 o r I l I I I’ I 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 14. Total Employment in the Relevant Sector for Each Year in the Community of Lakeshore. 82 Employment in 1,000 man hours Summer 100‘ 80- /’ Winter 601 // 40. 201 // T I r 1 U I T 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 15. Total Summer and Winter Employment for the Relevant Sector in the Community of Lakeshore. 83 the bases for both summer and winter seasons. The seasonal fluctuations appear to closely follow one another. One of the variables which greatly influence the employment in the community is the permanent resident popu- lation. Both relevant and non-relevant business establish- ments are dependent on this consumer group for their busi- ness, especially during the winter season. In order to separate the effects of this group on employment in the community, the following procedure was chosen. The total winter employment (for the relevant sector for each year) was subtracted from the summer employment for the same year. A best fit curve was then applied to illustrate the trend in increasing growth and deflection caused by the variables. The residual values would then represent that portion of employment generated by summer residents, mi- grant laborers, tourists, and boaters. In justifying this procedure, it is assumed that the spending patterns of the permanent resident population do not significantly change over the seasons of the year and therefore the effects of this group on the overall em- ployment base would likewise remain unchanged. The results of this procedure is illustrated in Figure 16. The author realizes that this procedure may be subject to legitimate criticism. The spending patterns of the resident population could very well increase during the summer months especially for those residents involved in 84 Employment relevant sector in 1,000 man hours 40-1 30-1 I. 20- 101 I l g' 1 r l T l 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 16. Relevant Sector Employment, Summer Minus Winter for Each Year, for the Community of Lakeshore. 85 agricultural businesses, the winter enables them to attend meetings and conferences concerning new innovations in harvesting techniques. It also enables them to shop for new equipment which they would not be able to do during the growing season. Another important point concerning the ex- penditures of this group is that their investment or capital outlay is very high for major equipment. This spending does not involve a large turnover of consumer goods and therefore does not affect the employment patterns as would the spend- ing of tourists. Also there are no business outlets in the community which supply large farm machinery and supplies to the fruit growers. Finally, it was determined that this method was the only procedure available to use in separating the effects of the resident population on yearly employment. Thus it was determined that the residual employment hours shown in Figure 16, were the result of outside in- fluences experienced only during the summer season. These influences were caused by the summer resident p0pu1ation, migrant laborers, tourists, and boaters. With the exception of 1957, there was a gradual rise in summer relevant employment due to the above variables. The year 1957 was characterized by a very successful cherry harvest and the opening of the county hospital in March 1957. During its first year of operation, the hospital accounted for an additional 8,000 man hours (summer minus winter statistics) stimulated by the above variables. 86 Thus, if the hospital had not opened, the 1957 figure would be approximately 14,000 man hours and thus be equal to the 1958 figure. The employment generated by the hospital for the remaining years (1958 to 1968) has fluctu- ated a maximum of 13 per cent, the difference between sum- mer and winter employment. Generally the difference be- tween summer and winter employment has been within 2,000 man hours with summer showing higher figures for ten out of twelve years. The years 1959 and 1964 were exceptional years in which the employment figures were higher in winter than in summer.14 The year 1965 was the beginning of a rapid rise in business activity. Sufficient data is not available to pre- dict if this trend will continue into the 1970's. However, inspection of the 1967 and 1968 values (see Figure 16), may indicate that the rate of increase in seasonal employment activity is leveling off. This may be due to the fact that the harbor had reached maturity. This hypothesis is sup- ported by the total boating man days for the harbor as illustrated in Figure 10. The figure shows that from 1964 to 1965 there was a rapid increase in boating man days. From 1965 to 1968 the increase in boating man days was not as steep as the rise from 1964 to 1965. However this surge may also have been generated by the rise in tourism. The increase in tourist spending in 14Appendix E, SIC 8061. 87 Michigan (Figure 17) started in 1961 according to estimates made by the Division of Tourism, State of Michigan. How- ever, the effects of tourist spending for the years 1961 to 1964 was not accompanied by a rapid rise in seasonal employ- ment in Lakeshore, for the same time period (Figure 16). Also the gross sales by retail outlets in Lakeshore (Figure 6) did not show a rapid rise in sales for the years 1961 to 1964. The rise here occurred from 1965 to 1968. Thus it may be assumed that Lakeshore did not enjoy as much of an increase in tourist spending as did the rest of the state and therefore it did not generate an increase in employment activity. The above assumption may also be supported by data recorded in Figure 8. In particular, service outlet "A" which shows a slight rise in overnight accommodations rented for the years 1960 to 1966. The major rise occurred in 1967, a leveling off year for tourist spending. This rise is also noted for outlets "D" and "C." The reason outlet "D" was not cited as an example is the fact that geographi- cally it is several miles south of the community while establishment "A" is in the community. Unfortunately, additional suitable techniques dis- tinguishing between summer and winter relevant and non- relevant sectors were not available to continue analyzing the statistics on community employment. The technique used by the author is removing the effects of the permanent 88 Tourism spending in State of Michigan in millions of dollars 1,400“ J.’20()"'l 1,000 "‘ 800" 600 - 1— ' I l I T j 1956 1958 1950 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 17. Amount of Dollars Spent on Tourism in State of Michigan. [Source: unpublished data from Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Division of Tourism.] 89 population has its limitations. However, because of the lack of additional data, it was the most effective method available to utilize existing data. Additional comments concerning the technique will be made in the following chapter. CHAPTER V RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS Summary The multiple time series design used in this study met with only moderate success. One of the reasons for this limited success was the lack of adequate data recorded in public and private archives. In particular, there was no reliable data for the Lakeshore area on the migrant labor population, cherry crop production, or tourist counts. In fact, no statistical information was available on these variables for the state as a whole. The most reliable data was that concerning the employment in man hours, by each outlet, which was extracted from the records by the research team. Using this data, the author was able to establish the total employment for the community back to the year 1955. This was accomplished by using the following procedures. 1. By dividing the business establishments into relevant (Figure 14) and non-relevant (Figure 12) sectors, the author was able to segregate those establishments serv- ing the boaters using the Lakeshore marina facilities. 90 91 2. A further breakdown of the relevant sector employment into winter and summer seasons (Figure 15) in- tended to show the effects of the resident population on employment activity in the community. 3. The next procedure required that the employment stimulated by the resident population be separated from the total summer employment in the community. This was accom- plished by subtracting the winter employment figures from the summer employment figures (Figure 15). The residual values could then be attributed to employment stimulated by the migrant labor force, tourists, and boaters. The results of this procedure are recorded in Figure 16. In this figure, there is a noticeable increase in employment beginning in 1965 and continuing through 1966. This trend began to taper off in 1967 and 1968. The Lakeshore public marina, which opened in 1960, was expected to reach maturity in 1965, the same year the employment began to rise (Figure 16). However, the author believes that the marina did not reach maturity, a point where the existing facilities are used to their fullest capacity, until 1967, the reason being that in 1960 there were no slips or berths available to the boater. The only available mooring at that time was directly to the pier. Thus the facility was only a refuge harbor for small craft. The slips or berths were not completed until 1962.1 1This was confirmed through interview with the vil- lage engineer, who installed both the pier and the berths. 92 Therefore, with all the facilities completed in 1962, the public marina would mature and reach its maximum use in 1967. This was the same year the employment began to! stabilize (Figure 16). It was mentioned previously, with regard to the sharp increase in employment in 1957 (Figure 16), that the county hospital opened in mid-winter 1957. For the first year of operation, the hospital's employment during the summer was approximately 8,000 hours greater than that of winter for the same year. Thus if the hospital had not opened in 1957, the employment peak (Figure 16) would then only be at 12,000 man hours. This would also produce a smoothing effect in the graph. Interpretation of Results The reasons for the sharp increase in employment during the period 1965-66 were investigated further. An analysis of state user taxes collected for overnight accom- modations (motels, hotels, and resort cottages) in Scenic County was undertaken to determine if there was a signifi- cant rise in the use of these facilities.2 The investi- gation proved that there was no significant rise in user 2The user tax figures were extracted from un- published records of the Michigan Department of Treasury. The tax rates were 3 per cent for 1961 and 4 per cent for 1962 through 1968. Total cash receipts for the summer accommodations can be determined by dividing the appropri- ate tax rate into user tax receipts (see Figure 18). 93 tax receipts during 1964 through 1966 and likewise in total accommodation cash receipts (see Figure 18). A further check on the volumes of tourist activity in the region was made by examining state parks attendance figures for the years 1955 through 1968. Unfortunately, the three nearest state parks are approximately thirty to forty miles from Lakeshore and in very popular resort areas which do not closely resemble the Lakeshore area. They are highly publicized and therefore might be expected to reflect increases in tourism to an even greater degree than the Lakeshore area. However, it was found that there was no substantial increase in total attendance at the three parks during the period 1964 through 1966. The author then turned attention to the internal changes in the community as a possible cause for this sharp increase in employment. It was found that two new busi- nesses opened during 1964 and 1965 which could possibly account for the employment increase. A calendar of signifi- cant events along with user tax data was plotted with rele- vant seasonal employment (Figure 18) to show possible causes of the sharp employment increase in 1964 and 1965. The two new businesses which opened during this time period was a private marina (1964) and a retail bakery (1965). If these establishments did cause the sharp in- crease in employment, then by subtracting their employment from the relevant sector we would reduce the intercept of the stimulated employment for the years 1966 through 1968. 94 mouo muumzo pom vocmmo muoum muu3pum: a unsoo umawmuu Ho>mua . pwcmmo moan uuwm a mono wuumno pom omcmmo huoxmn Manama a mono muuoso pooo pmcomo oceans oum>wnm mono kahuna pom mono huuono @000 a pmsoao kuoz poncho panda mcwmmmooum HmoflEmcu pmcmmo madame owansm pwcmmo owcwao Hoowvua a xcmm mono auumno poou pmcmmo Hmuwmmom 1 r T'Vj 1966 I j 1960 1962 1964 j 1970 1968 1956 1958 / Scenic County ./\ fl _ q 4. ..0 6 9. 2 1 ooo.dm Gd moxmu “mm: T V 1, 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 r r fj Y 1956 1958 1960 30—. nfi 2 mason awe ooo.a cw unashoamem 10% Year A Comparison of Significant Community Events Figure 18. and County Accommodation Use Tax Receipts with Relevant Season Employment for the Community of Lakeshore. 95 The result of this procedure is shown in Figure 19. It indicates that no major reduction in the total employment was produced by subtraction of the employment for these two establishments. Therefore, it has been demonstrated that these two establishments were not the cause of the sharp increase in employment. The influence of the community's fruit processing plant on employment was considered next. In 1966, the State of Michigan experienced a poor cherry crop harvest. This had a negative effect on the employment in the fruit processing plant (see Figure 7 and Appendix B). Thus the sharp rise in employment (Figure 18) could not be attri- buted to a successful cherry crop harvest. Another possibility investigated further was the employment at the county hospital. It was noted previously that the hospital had caused the sharp rise in employment in 1957 and could possibly have a similar effect in 1965 and 1966. The employment at the hospital was likewise subtracted from each year since it opened in 1957. Figure 20 illustrates the results of this procedure and shows that the points plotted along the slope of the best fit curve from 1955 to 1965 are concentrated closer to the slope line than previously. However, even with the sub- traction of the employment at all four of these establish- ments, the sharp increase in employment beginning in 1965 still remains and the slope from 1965 to 1968 indicates a continuing increase in employment. 96 Employment in 1,000 man hours 30-1 / 20q a 1.0" o I - 1 ' I ' 19%6 19%8 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 Year ' Figure 19. Relevant Seasonal Employment for the Community of Lakeshore Without the Effects of the Private Marina and Retail Bakery. 97 Employment in 1,000 man hours 3o - . 20 - , 10*- 0 1 ‘T T n rw u r 1 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 Year Figure 20. Relevant Seasonal Employment for the Community of Lakeshore Without the Effects of the Employ- ment of County Hospital. 98 It therefore appears logical to believe that this increase in employment was stimulated by the tourists and the boaters using the Lakeshore public marina. In review- ing the data on resort accommodation and overnight visitor days (Figure 8), it was noted that there was no sharp in- crease in the use of overnight accommodations at establish- ment "A" until 1967. Service establishment "D" did have a significant increase in guests in 1964. However, as men- tioned in a previous section, this establishment is several miles on the outskirts of the village limits and is closer to another community which provides similar services. In Figure 18, it is also shown that a travel trailer court opened near the community in 1967 and has had a significant influence on the business activity in the community. However, this influence could not have been a cause for the 1965 employment rise; although it could contribute to increased employment after 1967 as shown in Figure 18. Thus the author believes that the employment rise was stimulated for the most part by the public marina, since all the evidence appears to support this assumption. Conclusions From the data presented, it is concluded that the most probable number of equivalent full-time seasonal employment positions which could be attributed to the construction and operation of the public marina can be 99 attributed to the construction and operation of the public marina can be determined by subtracting the man hours along the base slope as it is projected from 1965 to 1968 (Figure 20) from the actual man hours recorded in the figure. Then by dividing these figures by 1,040 hours (twenty-six weeks times forty hours per week), the equi- valent full-time employment positions created by the public marina can be calculated. The resultant estimated full? time employment positions are shown in Table 3. These equivalent full-time employment positions are the number of positions which could have been generated by the public marina, particularly for 1965 and 1966. An additional explanation is needed for those positions recorded for 1967 and 1968 (Table 3). In 1967, the travel trailer court opened just outside the Village of Lakeshore. During the first year of operation, the trailer court recorded approximately 11,000 camper days (Figure 8). In 1968, this figure rose to approximately 18,700 camper days. It is reasonable to assume that these camper days would have had a considerable impact on the businesses in the community. Unfortunately, it is not possible to determine the total effect of these campers on employment. The author assumes that these campers would have the effect of stimulating additional employment in the community especially during the months of June, July, and August, Therefore, some of the equivalent 100 full-time seasonal employment positions (Table 3, Column 4) for 1967 and 1968 should be attributed to this group. The evidence presented in the preceding paragraph would appear to support the assumption that the marina was the main cause for the sharp rise in employment in 1965 and 1966. In investigating all other possibilities, no evi- dence was discovered which would suggest that this employ- ment increase should be attributed to something other than the Lakeshore public marina. The author, therefore, be- lieves that the Lakeshore public marina was directly re- sponsible for some of the increase in employment and that it indirectly stimulated additional employment in other segments of the community. Recommendations for Future Investigations Throughout this study a number of problems had to be overcome in order to obtain the necessary data. Several of these problems concerned public relations with the busi- ness establishments in the community. One of the biggest difficulties encountered was trying to get data from business establishments. The problem.was more a matter of time and timing than a lack of cooperation. Most of the data was collected during the summer months, the busiest time of the year for these establishments. In the future, it is recommended that business data from such establishments be obtained during 101 TABLE 3. Probable Number of Equivalent Full-Time Seasonal Employment Positions Attributable to the Lakeshore Marina. Actual Probable ggflgzr 2: Recorded Number of Year p Attributable Attributable Person per M Full-Time Work Season an . . b Hours P051tions 1965 1040 5,000 5 1966 1040 11,500 11a 1967 1040 12,300 12a 1968 1040 15,800 15a 3Three of these full-time positions are attribu- table to the establishment of two new businesses in the community during this time period (hardware store and gift shop). bFigures include the full-time harbormaster hired during the summer season. 102 the off season when tourist activity is at a minimum. By doing this researchers could establish a better relation- ship with the proprietors and would also receive maximum assistance. Secondly, contact with all business establishments should be made well in advance of the actual data gather- ing phase. In this public relations effort, emphasis should be placed on assuring the business owners that the information received would be held in the strictest confi- dence. The identities of those who would have access to this information should be stated. The initial contact should be informative and not include any insinuation that they have to cooperate. Several problems were encountered which proved to be major stumbling blocks in the multiple time series de- sign. The primary problem involved the recording of data in both the public and private archives. The researchers found it difficult to control such variables as changes in tourist and migrant labor populations because no agency had reliable recorded information on these variables. This was especially a problem with statistics at the local level where information was most needed but there was equivalent difficulty at the county level. In order for this type of design to be truly effective, there must be access to reliable information. Although the author believes this study to be successful, it is recommended that future studies be of a 103 more general nature. A value added study could establish relationships between boater variables and expenditures, spending patterns and the value added impact from which a predictive model could be developed allowing estimates of probable impacts in advance of location decisions. BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Campbell, Donald T. Experimental andguasi-Experimental Design for Research. Chicago: Rand McNally and Co., 1963. Carlson, Reynold E.; Deppe, Theodore R.; and Mac Lean, Janet R. Recreation in American Lifg. Belmont: Wadsworth Publishing Co., Inc., 1967. Chilton Research Services. The Economic Impact of Recreation-Tourism in the Connecticut River Basin. Philadelphia: Chilton Research Services, 1968. Clawson, Marion, and Knetsch, Jack L. Economics of Out- goor Recreation. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins Press, 1966. Funk, Herbert J. "Effects of a New Manufacturing Plant on Business Firms in an Eastern Iowa Community." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Iowa State Uni- versity, 1964. Kalter, Robert L. "A Model to Estimate the Economic Effects of Water-based Recreation Projects on Local Political Subdivisions." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Wisconsin, 1966. Littlefield, James E., and Andrews, Richard D. The Economic Impact of Recreation. Wisconsin Development Series. Madison: State of Wisconsin, Department of Resource Development, 1965. Michigan Department of Commerce. State Resource Planning Division. Preliminary Populations for Small Areas in Michigan. WOrking Paper 9. Lansing: Michigan Department of Commerce, 1966. Michigan Department of Highways. Traffic Division. "Traffic Record Programs, Average Traffic Counts." 1950-1968. 104 105 Michigan Department of Treasury. Research and Statistics Section. "County User Tax." 1960-1968. Michigan State University. Bureau of Business and Economic Research. Michigan Statistical Abstract, 1950- 1968. Michigan Waterways Commission. Discussion with Mr. Keith Wilson, Director and Mr. Raymond Lawrence, Chief Engineer. March 14, 1969. Morrison, Alexander H. "The Impact of Industry on a Rural Area in Northern Virginia: A Case Study of Development in Warren and Surrounding Counties, 1930-1954." Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Virginia, 1968. Qperation.Cooperation--Report of the Steering Committee on Cooperate Programs Between the Department 9f Con- servation and Michigan State University. Charles D. Harris and Howard A. Tanner, co-chairman. Lansing- East Lansing: Michigan Department of Conservation and Michigan State University, 1968. Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission. Economic Studies of Outdoor Recreation. Study Report 24. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1962. . Outdoor Recreation for America. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1962. Phillips, Paul H. The Economic Impact of the Louisiana Deer Hunter on the Community_§urrounding the Chicago Mills Game Magagement Area. Baton Rouge: Louisiana Wildlife and Fisheries Commission, 1965. Rajender, G. R.; Harmaton, F. K.; and Blood, D. M. A Study of the Resources, People and Economy of Teton County. Laramie: University of Wyoming Press, 1967. Ricks, Donald J. Economic Relationships in the Red Tart Cherr Marketin 1955-1967. AgriCultural Economics Report 23. East Lansing: Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural Economics, 1968. U.S. Department of Commerce. Bureau of Census. Census of Population. Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office, 1900-1960. Wackerman, A. E.: Hagerstein, W. D.; and Michell, A. S. HarvestingTimber Crops. New York: Mcgraw-Hill Inc., 1966. APPENDICES APPENDIX A PROFILE SCOPE OF PUBLIC WORKS PROJECT APPENDIX A PROFILE SCOPE OF PUBLIC WORKS PROJECT Prepared by / Date Project Applicant: Name of Applicant (City-Non-Profit Group- County-State) Project Purpose: Description Project Financing: ‘ Grant Loan Supplemental Local Share Pre-Application Conference: Date Time Location (Complete AddresSTi I. Proposed Facility A. What kind of facility is being proposed? B. If water and/or sewer facility, show percent project cost allocable to: Industrial/commercial use % Residential use % Other (describe) C. Would it be eligible for consideration or funding under other existing Federal or State grant and/ or loan programs? yes no D. If yes, describe the eligible program(s) II. Cost Estimates A. Are line item estimates known? i.e.,: land, construction, machinery & equipment, etc.: yes no 106 III. IV. B. C. 107 Are estimates fairly firm? yes no Who developed estimates? planning offic1a1 architect/engineer ; other (describe) ‘0 Is person(s) identified in 2C: employee of appii- cant ; under contract to applicant ; other (describe) What is the source of applicanth matching share of the project cost? Is there a request for a supplementary grant to another agency? yes no If yes 1. Has the primary agency made a commitment? yes no 2. Does the project conform to purposes of EDA Act and existing EDA policy? yes no Direct Impact A. What is the expected direct impact the project will have in creating new jobs? 1. Applicant's estimate of jobs 2. Field Coordinator's estimate after discount- ing L 3. Are estimates based on bird-in-hand? check one: Totally ; Partially ; No bird-in-hand (speculation) Does the project further the objectives of the Economic Opportunity Act of 1964? yes no . If yes, 1. Explain how 2. Is there a CAP? yes no . If yes 3. Name of CAP and its director Triggering Effect (ASide from the direct impact of the project itself) A. Is there any expectation the proposed facilities will generate additional public investments? yes no . If yes, provide best esti- mate: 1. over what time period? 2. in what amounts? pt 3. expected sources of these future investment funds Is there any expectation the proposed facility will generate additional private investments? yes no . If yes, provide best estimates of: 1. the kinds of investments 2. the time period in which they may be made 3. the expected job impact in the time period 108 C. Describe any other expected effect the project will have on future development activities V. Relocation and Other Statutory Rquirements A. For the principal beneficiaries 1. List the kinds of industries & and the products manufactured or processed, or service provided: Industry Product or Service 2. Is there a possible relocation problem? yes no . If yes, describe 3. Is there sufficient assurance that all re- quired certification on Civil Rights & re- location will be executed? yes no If no, describe problem VI. Construction Implementatigg A. What are the number of months required for 1. start of construction (from approval of project) 2. completion of construction (from start off construction) 3. initial operation (from completion of construction) B. Is there a pool offlocal labor that can be used on construction? yes no REMARKS: APPENDIX B TOTAL EMPLOYMENT FOR CANNED FRUIT AND VEGETABLE INDUSTRY IN LAKESHORE 109 Employment in 1,000 man hours 60a Total 401 Summer 20- /'\.\ /.\ ._. . ‘\ o—o\ \" °\\// ' Winter I I I r I I r 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 196 Year Figure B-l. Total Employment for Canned Fruits and Vegetables Industry in Lakeshore. APPENDIX C LOG SUMMARY FOR LAKESHORE MARINA 110 Dog mmop mane .mucmpflmmu >9 omnmumflmmu mason mosaogw .Auonumn on» Eoum pmumoa hon» ammo mo pasofio Hmuou man an commumwmwu noon comm mom manomm mo Hogans may mcwmamwuasa an pm>flumpv whom :08 Hmuou "m CESHOU .Ammmpv mmum mo numcma "N Gfisaoo .mamomm mo Hones: ”a :Edaou mnvm cam nmoa onwm who HHHH mvam mmm mmm maam amok mam mooa pom mam mamuoa moa em m mma mm ma >oz oma om ma mm m m mm on an 000 mad mm on oaa mm mm am am ov mom Nb mm vow om mm mom vow mvm ham mum mmm va mam vmm mam owe flea mmm mam moa ham mad mvoa mam omm mmoa nmm Nmm coma ovm mmm whoa mam mme mmm mmH 5mm wasp om mean om ma m ma m NH mm n ma an: m m H m N H m m H m N H m N H mmma head mmma mama vmma 30:02 How» .mgwumz.ouonmmxmq Mom mumEEdm moq .HIO mqmda APPENDIX D WAGE/TIME EQUIVALENT CONVERSION TABLE lll ONH oma Aha com Hmm own How oom oov oo.oom oaa med «.mma mma mmm mmm mmm omm 5mm 00.0mm NHH owa m.mma >.mmH mam «mm mew omm mum oo.om~ oaa m.hma hma mmH Ham omm mmm mum hem oo.m>~ ooa mNH vva b.mma Hma com mam omm mmm oo.omm mm oma end and oma mma mom ovm omm oo.oem om m.~HH hma oma mud mud mad mmm oom oo.m~m mm oaa >.mma n.m¢a mmH mud mma omm mam oo.o- om ooa mad mma mma mma end com new oo.oo~ mm om h.moa ONH mma mma mma oma ovm oo.owa on m.nm ooa 5.0HH mma mmH «ma mud mmm oo.mna om mu mm ooH mad oma oma oma com oo.oma we om m.mm om om mm moH oma oma oo.oma we mm m.mm mu mm mm mm OHH bed oo.oaa ow om v.5m em up om hm ooa MMH oo.ooa mm me v.am cm on we we om oNH oo.om mm ov m.mv mm mm we an ow boa oo.om om m.nm me om mm om mm mm ooa oo.mh em on m.vm ow me we mm om om oo.om om mm o.m~ mm mm ov we on no oo.om ma om H.m~ n.m~ am mm mm ov mm oo.ov oa m.ma m.va >.mH ma om m.Hm mm m.mm oo.mm e m N>.m >.m 5.5 m m ca MH oo.oa m m.~ m.~ m v v v.v m h.@ oo.m m.a m.a mu. m .m .m w.~ m v oo.m v. m. n. m. H oo.a mH£\E mH£\E mu£\e mH£\E mun\E mun\E mu:\E mun\E muc\a pawn w om.~ oo.~ mh.a om.H om.a mm.a mH.H oo.a H: mm. oumm .mHQMB :oflmuw>sou Damam>flsvm mEflB\mmm3 .HIQ mumme APPENDIX E EMPLOYMENT: MAN HOURS FOR RELEVANT SECTOR AS CODED ACCORDING TO SIC CODE, WINTER AND SUMMER 112 mmmm omom mcam mmam mmam omam cocm mcam mcam mcam mcam mcam cocm mcam comm ccmoo hmmmo ocmmm mmoom cooom momom ammom cmmom mmmma ohocm oomma hmaoa c c aocm mmao mmmo mhom mmmm mmma omma omma hmaa occa mmma cmm c c c cocm mamm moom moom cmcm cmcm coma coca coca coca coca coca coca coca coca aomm ccmm ccom cmom cmam coam coam cmma coma cmoa coma c c c c cmco comm momm ommm ommm ommm omma omma moo moo c c c c c . hmmm mmmo noco mooa mmom ccmm momo mcmm mcho cmmm cmmo comm comm cmmm cmmm mamm oomm mamm mmom mmom mmom oomm mamm cmcm mcmo omco ccmm ccnm coom coom mamm mmam mamm mamm mamm mmmm mmcm mmma mmma mmma mmma cmcm mmma mmma mmma mmmm mmom aamm mcmm mmmo mmma mmoa c c c c c c c c aomm mhmo mmmm mmcm mmoa c c c 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oaoa mmmm mmao mmao c c c c c c c c c c c c camm Hausa: moma mooa ooma moma ooma moma moma aoma coma mmma mmma mmma omma mmma 0am .HoEEsm can souca3 . .oooo 0am on mcaououod omooo mm uouomm unm>oaom How mason so: "ucoE>0amEm .alm wands APPENDIX F EMPLOYMENT: MAN HOURS FOR NON-RELEVANT SECTOR AS CODED ACCORDING TO SIC CODE, WINTER AND SUMMER 113 maom mmom coom maom maom maoa mmma ccoa mmma mmma mmma mmma mmma mmma cmac mom omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm omm ammo coocm camcm cmoma cmmoa mmmoa oaoma maooa momma mmooa momma maoma mmmma mmooa cmaoa aama omca omca omca omca omca omca oaca omca omca omca omca omca c c ammm coomm cmmcm cmmcm ccccm comma cmoma ccmoa ccoma comoa comoa comoa cocoa cmmma comoa mmcm coamo cmmmm c c c c c c c c c c c c amcm mmoo omoo oooo omcm ommm mmmm ocam oomo oomo oomo ommm ommm ccom ccom macm mmom cmmm cmmm cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma cmma aaoo mmmma ommoa oamma ccama cmaca omcma oomm mcmca mooo c c c c c mmmm com cmm cmm 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