MCUD lit-”mg rEPIP\ 9. {n ‘I A" Q' fig??? IV a PLACE IN RETURN BOX to remove this checkout from your record. TO AVOID FINES return on or before date due. MAY BE RECALLED with earlier due date if requested. DATE DUE DATE DUE DATE DUE 5/08 K,lProflAccaPres/CIRCIDaIeDue indd ‘ _~ ’- '—" ———. __._ 4 44 HERD STRUCTURE, PRODUCTION TRAITS, CATTLE TRANSACTIONS AND AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS OF ZEBU CATTLE IN N. TANZANIA A PLAN B PAPER MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY BY PETER K. NGATEGIZE OCT 0 71982 Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SC IENCE MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY September91982 ABSTRACT HERD STRUCTURE, PRODUCTION TRAITS, CATTLE TRANSACTIONS AND AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS OF ZEBU CATTLE IN N. TANZANIA By PETER K. NGATEGIZE Livestock production in developing countries has begun getting much attention from governments, donor agents and researchers. In many countries cash crops constituted the major source of foreign exchange earnings and thus got much more attention than livestock production. However, the 1970's were generally a period of falling prices for most of the major cash crops (coffee, cocoa, cotton, sisal, etc.). The critical need for turning to other foreign exchange earning commodities, the need to reduce the impor- tation of manufactured foodstuffs and the growing demand for animal proteins plus the pressure to improve the living conditions of the usually less privileged pastoral and agri- pastoral communities requires full understanding of the pro- duction potentials and constraints in their respective production systems. The study set out to bring together the current litera- ture on herd structure, production traits and cattle transactions of zebu herds in tropical Africa. Specifically the study examines the herd characteristics and productivity of W'Arusha zebu herds in N. Tanzania. The first chapter includes the problem statement, objectives and limitations of the study. In the second chapter, an introduction to Tanzania is made covering geographic, economic and social characteristics. The geographical. historical, and production conditions of the W'Arusha and the data collection methodology are presented. The most important parts of the study are contained in chapter 3, 4 and 5. In chapter 3. literature. covering a wide range of production systems and management conditions is reviewed. Chapter 4 reports the results of the study from the W'Arusha sample herd. Chapter 5 presents the results of the regression analysis and herd growth simulations. Chapter 6 presents the conclusion from the study based on the literature and the findings from the sample herd. Some recommendations for further research, especially, covering the economics of production in livestock system are presented. DEDICATION To my parents, Sabina Babikinamu.and Bonefance Kikafunda, whose wisdom, understanding and inspiration have been the foundation of my personal development. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I wish to express sincere gratitude to Dr. Tom Zalla for devoting much of his valuable time in the initial preparation of this paper. My thanks also go to my major professor and academic advisor, Dr. Steven Harsh, and committee members Dr. Mike Weber and Dr. Schillhorn Van Veen for their support and advice during the preparation of this paper. I am appreciative of Dr. L. Manderschied's role as my academic advisor during the early stages of my Masters program. The assistance of Paul Volberg in the analysis of data is also highly appreciated. Thanks also go to my colleagues and friends who provided the friendship and moral support when I needed it most and to Hilda for typing the final draft of this paper. iii LIST OF TABLES . ...... . ......... ....................... CHAPTER I. PROBLEM STATEMENT AND OBJECTIVES ........... 1.1 Introduction ................................. 1.2 Traditional Communal Grazing in Theory ....... 1.3 Problem Statement and Purpose ................ 1.4 Objectives .... ..... .. ...................... CHAPTER II. AREA OF STUDY AND DATA COLLECTION METHODOLOGY ............................... 2.1 The geography and Economy of Tanzania ........ 2.2 The Livestock Sub-Sector ..................... 2.3 Communal Grazing in Tanzania ................. 2.4 The Geographical and Socio-economic Characteristics of the W'Arusha....... ..... ... 2.5 Data Collection and Sampling Methodology ..... 2.6 Methodology . ...................... ........... 2.7 Definitions .. ...... .......................... 2.8 Limitations of the Study ..................... CHAPTER III. HERD STRUCTURE, PRODUCTION TRAITS AND CATTLE TRANSACTIONS OF SELECTED LIVE- STOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS ................ 3.1 Herd Structure ....................f.......... 3.2 Production Traits ............................ 3.3 Cattle Transactions .......................... CHAPTER IV. HERD STRUCTURE, PRODUCTION TRAITS AND TABLE OF CONTENTS CATTLE TRANSACTIONS OF THE W'ARUSHA SAMPLE HERD iv 10 ll 12 15 16 17 18 19 19 24 3O 34 4.1 Introduction ................................. 4.2 Herd Structure ............................... 4.3 Zebu Cattle Production Traits ................ 4.4 Cattle Transactions .......................... CHAPTER V. SIMULATION AND REGRESSION ANALYSIS ........ 5.1 Introduction ........ . .............. . ......... 5.2 Background to Simulations .................... 5.3 Economic Analysis of the Two Steady States... 5.4 A Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Proposed Program ............................... . ...... 5.5 Determinants of Milk Yield Production ........ CHAPTER VI. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS .............. BIBLIOGRAPHY .......................................... APPENDICES .................................... . ....... 34 35 37 42 50 50 52 62 67 73 84 88 92 .L‘ mmmmbbb waI-‘No‘m .L‘ LIST OF TABLES Comparative Coefficients of Alternative Livestock Production Systems of Zebu Cattle... Production Characteristics Among the Different Livestock Production Systems in Kenya ......... Sexual Maturity, Number and Percentage for the Sample Herd .................. . ............ Animal Age by Sexual Maturity for the Zebu Sample Herd ................................... Production Coefficients for the Zebu Herd ..... Sexual Maturity by Type of Transaction for the Zebu Sample Herd ......... ................. Type of Transaction and Disposition of Animal. Summary of Transactions Data ..... . ............ Milk Yield at Different Periods of Lactation.. Herd Structure and Size of the Sample Herd.... Animal Mortality by Age and Sex (State I) ..... Animal Mortality by Age and Sex (State 11).... Herd Structure and Size Under the Steady States for the Two Models. . .............. . Commercial Value for the Animals by Sex and Age (Tanzania Shillings) ............. .... ..... The Commercial Value of the Herd Under the Steady State I ................................ The Commercial Value of the Herd Under the Steady State II .............. ...... ........... Cost Estimates Under the Program .............. vi PAGE 28 29 35 37 42 45 47 48 49 56 57 61 62 64 66 66 69 TABLE ' PACE 5.9 Returnsrfrom Increased Milk Production ........ 70 5.10 Returns Arising from Increased Offtake ....... 71 5.11 Discounted Net Returns from the Proposed Program (T. Shs.) ............................ 72 vii CHAPTER I PROBLEM STATEMENT AND OBJECTIVES 1.1 Introduction The rising demand for food in most African countries resulting from population growth and declining food output increases the need for research in all aspects of improving the food situation in the region. Because of calorie and protein shortages. millions of children die and/or suffer from retarded growth and development whilst many have their mental development, ability to learn and general behavior impaired. In most of these countries, animal protein shortages are part of the general hunger problem (French, 1970). In many of the major livestock areas of Africa. for example Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Botswana and Tanzania, production systems are similar with communal grazing of livestock and the structure of the industry being mainly of subsistence type. The herds operate at low levels of productivity, high mortality and low commercial offtake (Sullivan & Farris. 1976). However, the livestock sector has, in most of this region, the potential to supply not only the national requirements of livestock products but also surplus for export to meat deficit areas in the region and abroad. The need for an improved livestock sector in any country goes beyond the provision of more and better quality food to the nations. Other goals include reducing imports, increasing exports, exports, more employment, increased incomes of rural people and the enhancement of equity goals. The development of livestock implies the development of grassland farming since grass is the cheapest food for the ruminant animal. Fortunately, the grassland potential of the tropics is enormous despite the fact that the plain of nutrition of livestock is low (McIlroy 1964). Most government development plans have geared livestock improvement through subsidized programs like veterinary services, range management, dips and water facilities. The assumption be- hind these subsidized programs has been that producers would readily adopt the improved practices, become better managers and more market oriented (Sullivan, Farris, Yetley and Njukia, 1978). A number of constraints have persistently impeded the livestock programs. They can generally be enumerated as: (l) The traditional system of communal grazing and traditional attituds toward cattle. (2) The prevalence of diseases. (3) Environmental constraints of rainfall patterns and their influence on pasture availability. (4) Inadequacies of the marketing system. (5) The limited number of technical personnel. (6) The depressed regulated prices and the defi— ciency in the financial resources available to governments. The extent to which any of these problems influence develop- ment efforts in any of the countries is not covered in this paper. Suffice it to say that they still remain prevalent in much of tropical Africa. However, due to the pervasive- ness of the communal grazing practice and the attention given to it in literature, it is highlighted in the next section. 1.2 Traditional Communal Grazing in Theory In most livestock production systems in Africa, grazing is done on communally owned land. The herds graze the same pastures without restrictions on herd size or any attempt to control the grazing. The herds may graze together or separately. The practice is also characterized by vir- tually lack of any attempt, individually or collectively, to provide some form of pasture management. The practice has some general advantages: (1) There are little or no costs incurred in terms of pasture management. Animals are moved from place to place. The pastures are left to reseed and regrow during the rains especially after burning and with the help of animal manure in the range. (2) Labor saving is common especially where families take turns in taking animals to pastures. No close attention is often necessary except in areas with wild animals and/or cattle rustlers or densely cultivated land. Communal grazing, however, has been persistently criticized 4 for the subsequent overstocking and overgrazing which cause heavy damage to pastures leading to soil erosion and deserti- fication. Associated with the practice is the high mortality and low animal productivity due to long distances animals travel in search of pastures and poor management practices. There is a more likelihood of uncontrolled breeding that could result into inbreeding, poor quality calves from poor bulls and constraints in using artificial insemination. Attempts to improve the range would have to face the free- rider problem and the associated high costs of exclusion. In the rational use of resources, economic theory says that resources are used up to the level at which the addi- tional value of an input is equal to the additional cost of producing the additional output (MC - VMP). Thus a herdsman would add animals to a given pasture until the returns per animal are equal to the costs of getting these returns. However, in the communal grazing system, the same range is used by several individuals. The herds may graze together or separately but on the same area of land. Thus as a rational being, each herdsman will seek to maximize his net gain. The benefits of adding one or more animals to his herd and the costs associated are evaluated. The benefits are a function of the increment of one animal. This increment may be measured in terms of additional milk, meat, manure, prestige, or wealth. Any farmer is better off grazing as many animals as he can acquire because if his cattle are not grazing on pasture land, someone else's will. L)— The costs are a function of the additional over- stocking. However, these costs go to society; they are shared by all the herdsmen and society at large. Thus each herdsman shares only a fraction of the total costs. There- fore, as long as the returns (to the individual) are more than the costs (the portion going to the individual), the herdsman is acting rationally to add another animal until his personal additional costs equal to the additional re- turns. The process, however, will subsequently lead to over- stocking. The good pastures will be grazed leaving less nutritive plants. Soil will in most cases be left bare and this will facilitate wash off by water and wind. Thus the ”tragedy of the commons.” (Hardin G., 1968). The criticisms often offered in condemning communal grazing have received much attack in recent periods. Mac- kenzie (1973) asserts that overgrazing is often not due to overstocking but rather lack of pasture management. While Meadows (1981) believes that the problem of overgrazing has been exaggerated, Stanford (1978) warns that the tragedy— of-the-commons argument should cease to be used as a policy guideline. 1.3 Problem Statement and Purpose Much of the literature available on livestock systems has been done by sociologists on pastoral communities in developing countries of Africa. Most of the studies have concentrated their research on the tribal rites in which cattle play a major role. Research work by animal scientists has been restricted to diseases, breeding, nutrition and other technical aspects of animal production based on western production systems. As a result, not only are the demographic characteristics of the herds little known, the condition of smallholder production, its opportunities and goals are often misunderstood (Dahl and Hjort, 1976). Recent studies show that management practices sub- stantially influence herd structure and production traits of herds in specific farming environments. The age-sex composition of a herd is a major determinant of animal sales, milk production, herd growth and resistance to drought (Shapiro, 1979). Therefore, any policies aiming at increas- ing offtake rates, herd growth and productivity require knowledge of these herd characteristics and how they are influenced by management practices. Such knowledge will not only be of value to policy makers but also to researchers and donor agents because such knowledge will reduce the po- tential for project failure. The smallholders will also be provided with technical and economic advice tailored to their needs rather than production packages based on western production systems. The inherent need for improving the productivity of livestock on small farms and efficiency in formulating projects through better knowledge of small holder herd structure and productivity, leads the study to the following objectives. 1.4 Objectives of the study (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) The study (1) (2) To review the literature on herd structure, productivity and herd dynamics of pastoral and agri-pastoral production systems in Tropical Africa. To provide information on herd structure, pro- ductivity and cattle transactions for zebu herds of an agri-pastoral graoup in a selected study area. To determine the potential for increasing (improving) productivity of zebu herds without drastically changing the current production system. To analyze the management variables affecting the level of milk production under the current production system. To make recommendations on how improvements could be made in view of the findings of the study. will focus particularly on the following questions: What is known about herd structure, production traits (coefficients) and transactions of live- stock systems in Tropical Africa and what factors have a major influence on the variables? What herd characteristics are prevalent among the zebu herds of the W'Arusha of Northern Tanzania and what are the management practices that are important in influencing their ‘\A - -m‘m ”Nanzafin _ characteristics? (3) What are the general implications of the present production traits herd structure and transactions on the development of the livestock sector among the W'Arusha? CHAPTER II AREA OF STUDY, DATA COLLECTION AND METHODOLOGY 2.1 The Geography and Economy of Tanzania The Republic of Tanzania is the largest country in East Africa with an area of 945,000 square kilometers. It has a diversity of climatic regions and geographical features. Rainfall is highest in the northwest and southwest with two rainy seasons. The average annual precipitation is 760- 1270 mm. Large areas in the center of Tanzania lie within the 250-500 mm isohyets. In this area, largely in the west and central zones, conditions are in varying degrees, unfa- vourable for the production of crops, except in limited areas where irrigation is feasible. A considerable part of this area is, however, suitable for livestock production, provided that tsetse fly infestation is controlled and water supplies are provided. About 25 percent of the country, mainly comprising of fertile areas along the borders with neighbouring countries and the Indian Ocean, are intensively settled and farmed. ‘ The 17.4 million people belong to over 130 ethnic groups. The average population density is about 19 people per square kilometer. Over 90 percent of the population live in rural areas where subsistence agriculture is the major way of live. Agriculture contributes 45 percent of 10 the Gross National Product, industry 16 percent and services 39 percent (U.S.D.S., 1979). The leading exports are coffee, cotton, sisal and spices. The stable foods include maize, cassava, millet and sorghum. Tanzania is listed in the low income category by the World Bank with a Gross National Product per capital per year of less than $300 U.S. A 1969 national survey of house- holds reported that the lowest 40 percent of the population shared 7.8 percent of the income, the middle 40 percent shared 28.9 percent and the top 20 percent shared 63.3 per- cent of the national income. Since 1967, Tanzania has chosen a socialist path with ambitious equity goals within Ujamaa framework: the philos0phy stressing self reliance and African socialism. 2.2 The Livestock sub-Sector The cattle population was estimated at 11 million heads in 1973 (Mackenzie). Tanzania has a great potential for livestock production in spite of tsetse fly infestation in many areas that is responsible for cattle losses through the transmission of a disease known as trypanosomiasis, and lack of water in many parts of the country. However, the sector has generally remained unstructured, unspecialised and unimproved. There is little integration of crop and livestock enterprises except in a few areas like Kilimanjaro and Arusha regions. Cattle numbers are highest in the more densely settled areas. In 1967, 77 percent of cattle were reported to be located in the higher rainfall areas near l 1 Lake Victoria, the central zone and the Arusha-Kilimanjaro regions. Almost half of the cattle in Tanzania are held by people who cultivate the land. Their cattle are herded away from homestead areas on communal grazing. About 2 million are owned and herded by pastoralists in extensive grazing areas in the low rainfall zones, while some 1.5 million are owned by agricultural cultivators in densely settled areas and grazxed in association with the cultivated land. The residual 3 million, not readily classified in the above categories, are found in less densely populated areas (FAO/IBRD, 1969). In 1969, there were only 12,000 dairy-type animals in Tan- zania and only half were held by small holders. In 1968- 69, livestock contributed an estimated 15.6 percent of total agricultural output. In spite of this relatively low contri- bution to the overall national economy, livestock presents the only productive, visible and interest earning asset owned by most rural families. 2.3 Communal Grazing in Tanzania The degree of overstocking in the country varies in different regions. Some areas outside of the main live- stock producing areas are understocked (mainly due to tsetse infestation). In the producing areas the stocking rate is estimated to be over 25 percent too high for the available forage in average years (Sullivan and Farris, 1976). Proper grazing and stocking of these lands would provide an estimated 20 percent increase in forage growth and a 10 percent increase 12 in meat production. Theoretically, destocking and/or range improvement and management would provide better nutrition for cows, increase calving rate, reduce calf mor- tality rates and produce marketable cattle in shorter period. The village and Ujamaa Village Act of 1975 provides broad enabling powers to individual villages to control range development and grazing practices. In some areas, bush clean- ing and establishing improved pastures would increase output without destocking but stocking rates would need to be controlled to achieve the most benefit from the improve- ment. Fencing to control grazing and enable rotational grazing is a possibility in some situations. However, this requires regular tick control, ample water and watering facilities, some supplemental feeding of salt and minerals, and an animal health program. This means, increased costs of production and higher risks to the farmer. In general most of the programs directed at improved range and pasture management have not been successful or effective and more specific programs and procedures are called for in implementation (Sullivan and Farris, 1976). 2.4 The Georgraphical and Socio-Economic Characteristics of the W'Arusha GEOGRAPHICAL LOCATION: The W'Arusha inhabit the area comprising the south- western slopes of Mt. Meru and the immediate peripheral area. Mt. Meru is an extinct volcano, 4,993 meters in altitude 13 and about eighty kilometers west-south-west of Mt. Kili- manjaro. To the north and west are the pastoral Masai who extend across the border into southern Kenya. To the east are the Meru. The town of Arusha, which accommodates the district and regional headquarters is located in the study area. In contrast to the surrounding steppe, the southern and eastern mountain slopes are well watered, cool and because of volcanic soils, notably fertile. The average annual rainfall ranges between 1100-1800 millimeters, according to altitude. On the western slopes, where the W'Arusha dominate and below 1,300 meters, rainfall dimini- shes rapidly to about 510 millimeters a year and the vol- canic soils give away to comparatively infertile soils. On the southern mountain slopes, the population density approaches 390 people per square kilometer but falls gradually toward the western slopes and the lower lying plains where 8 people per square kilometer is common. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE The W'Arusha are believed to have migrated into the area although their exact origin is not clearly understood. They have had a close relationship twith the pastoral Masai and at the time of the first European travellers, were classi= fied as Masai based on fairly superficial observation. How- ever, in contrast to the Masai, they are principally agricul- turalists with a strong interest, economically and socially, in livestock. They were also said to be more oriented 14 toward the modern sector (Gulliver, 1963). AGRICULTURE: The traditional economy of the W'Arusha was based on a number of staples, namely, maize, bananas, beans and finger millet. To a lesser extent was the cultivation of tobacco, gourds, squash and honey gathering in the forest. During the last two decades, deliberate cash crop cultiva- tion has begun. These include coffee, beans, peas, onions, wheat and pyrethrum. The farm sizes range between 1-4 hectares. A number of cows are also kept to meet family needs of meat, milk, manure and social livestock obligations, and sale for cash. The average herd size for family is four cows, two goats, and three sheep. The management of cattle vary from farm to farm. Some families keep grade cattle under improved manage- ment practices like stall feeding, use of concentrates and disease control. The area is not only heavily populated but it also has a ratio of cattle to people of about 1 to l which is relatively high. It is reported that producers manage their cattle more economically because of the demand for dairy products and scarcity of land for enlarging herds (Sullivan and Farris, 1976). Land ownership is‘mainly pri- vate rather than communal. In some drier north-west parts, however, cattle graze the communal pastures which are mainly the uncultivated waste land. Grass shortage due to lack of rains and overgrazing is prevalent. However, it is possibly true that the major problems of livestock are 15 primarily lack of water and poor range management rather than actual overgrazing due to numbers of livestock (Mac- kenzie, 1973). 2.5 Data Collection and Sampling Methodology* The study drew its data from a cross-sectional survey of cattle producers in Arusha region of N. Tanzania. The survey was carried out between November 1973 and June 1974. A two stage probability sampling procedure was employed for the study. The 1967 census enumeration areas served as first stage sample units, being systematically selected with a probability proportional to their 1967 household popu- lations. From each selected first stage unit, an independent, constant size subsample of individual households was drawn systematically. Practically, the systematic sampling pro- cedure yields a representative random sample to which con- ventional two stage estimation procedures apply. The syste- matic sampling procedure used for selecting first stage sample units took account of the continuous variation in rainfall and attitude in the survey area. The farm survey consisted of a single visit to the sampled households. Enumerators gathered data on house- hold cattle management practices, and detailed individual cattle records. The interviews lasted 30-40 minutes for households having no cattle and l-lk hours for-households with cattle. *Tom Zalla, Unpublished Ph.D. Thesis, 1981. 10 Information was provided almost all on a recall basis with the recall period varying from 1-2 days for milk data to as long as several years for cattle records. (Appendix I). Often the person answering the questions was not the same person that worked closely with the herd. Inconsisten- cies and discrepancies occurred in numbers of animals repor- ted, calving and breeding months. A good deal of discrepancy occurred in milk production data on the day preceding the survey and at key points during the lactation period (1, 3, 6 months and end of lactation). There was considerable evidence that many farmers were not being honest in reporting milk yields. Another source of data inconsistency was the individual enumerator idiosyncracy. 2.6 Methodology The study highlights the important findings of existing literature on small livestock farms and pastoral communities. These are looked at in relation to the area of study and livestock production in developing countries in particular. The conditions obtaining in the study area as regards the environment, historical, political and socio-economic factors are identified. Computation of sample herd structure using sample totals and production traits using means, averages, variance and standard deviations are employed. Further analysis included regression analysis and simulation (Chapter 5). 2. 7 Definitions The following terms are used throughout the paper. (1) Calving Rate or Calving Percentage: This is the (2) (3) (4) proportion (percentage) of breeding cows which bear calves during the year: Cows that gave birthtduring the year X 100 Total nufiber of breeding cows in the herd for the year Offtake Rate: This is defined to include the proportion of all the animals that leave the herd during the year. (i) Crude Offtake Rate = net outflows+deaths+slaughters average herd size for the year (ii) Commercial Offtake = Net outflows+slaughters Average—herd size for the years Mortality Rate: This is the ratio of the number of animals that die in the year over the total number of animals in the herd for the year. Ca1f* mortality = Calf deaths in a year Galvestorn in the year Production Traits: This is also used in the same context as production coefficients or characteris- tics to include mortality rate, calving rate, age at calving, offtake rate, lactation yield, calving interval and other factors that affect the pro- ductivity and growth of a herd. *A calf is defined as cattle under one year of age. 1.8 2.8 Limitations of the Study The following were the limitations of the study: (1) (2) (3) (4) The study was very much handicapped by the author's general lack of field experience in the area of study there was limited literature available on the socio- economic aspects of the area and on livestock production in the area, in particular since the data had been collected to meet different objectives, some information valuable to the study was either not collected or was in a form less useful to this study. For example (a) there was no information on communal grazing and problems relating to land adjudication, cattle and beef marketing in the area, (b) in reporting the infor- mation on cattle transactions, there was no dis- tinction made between commercial sales or buying or gifts that relate to social functions, (c) calf management practices and the significance of milk production and use in the area would have been given more coverage so as to be more beneficial to the study the study does not capture the dynamics in the livestock subsector and therefore it could not include the prescriptive dimension based on the data that was collected. Therefore some of the recommendations were basically made by drawing more from literature than the survey data. CHAPTER III HERD STRUCTURE, PRODUCTION TRAITS AND CATTLE TRANSACTIONS OF SELECTED LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS 3.1 Herd Structure Information on herd structure of small farmers in tropical Africa has received increased interest in recent times. This has been due to the fact that they throw some light on the objectives of the various production systems and explain the management practices that go along with the different herd structures. SEX STRUCTURE: The ratio between newborn males and females in a herd is approximately one to one (Dahl and Hjort, 1976). How- ever, among the mature animals, the ratio is generally much biased in favour of females. In Kalamoja, the proportion was found to be in the range of 49 percent to 85 percent (Dyson Hydson, 1970). Jacobs (1963) reported a female per- centage of 51-61 percent for Masai herds of Kenya and 1 Tanzania. Meadows and White (1979) reported three reasons for high male calf mortality in the Kenyan district of Kajiado. It was determined that m 1e calves are slaughtered at an early age: 19 7.0 (1) To save milk for human consumption (2) To reduce stress on the dam by a suckling calf. This is especially true during the dry season. (3) To have meat available in manageable quantities for the family. For similar reasons, the Kalamajong are known to slaughter all young bulls unless they meet certain selection criteria (Dahl and Hjort, 1976). Selection criteria may be based on the performance of parents, the individual ani- mal's conformation and the purpose of the animal. The male calves are selected for breeding, as steers and for traction. In some societies, they are also used for rituals. In a study focusing on management of small East African Zebu in relation to milk yield, calf growth and mortality, Stobbs (1966) observed that ”lactation length was significantly longer when a calf was present at milking but the calving interval was longer” (p. 255). In some cases, calving inter- val could be as long as two years or more. Based on this finding, it can be argued that the farmer could sell or slaughter male calves in order to reduce calving interval in anticipation of getting a female calf the next calving. This could be the case especially where herd growth is a major objective of the family. However, this would mean reduced milk supply to the owner since indigenous cattle tend not to let down milk in the absence of their calf and thus shortening the lactation period (Barrett and Larkin, 1974). Similarly, calves, especially the males, may be deprived of much of their dams' milk as to cause distress - s‘-o‘aM ..--M -oo74 21 and tender them more vulnerable to disease (Brown 1971). This practice could account for the high mortality observed in males even after the weaning period. In Uganda, Ferguson and Poleman (1971) report that in central and western regions, the number of female calves exceed male calves in the herds. Herds are oriented towards supplying milk for sale or family consumption with more than 60 percent of the population recorded as heifers and cows. In the Eastern region, however, where ox-cultivation is practised, the economic value of bullocks is greater. The male calves are retained in the herds as potential plowing cattle. In the region, the ratio of male calves to female calves is 1:1 as opposed to 1:2 in most other regions. In the North Ethiopian Rift Valley, because of lack of market opportunities, almost all males are culled at an early age: hence females constitute approximately 952 of herd numbers (Galaty et a1, 1981). Horowitz (1979) reports a management practice in Mali, West Africa where the stockmen tend to keep up the proportion of steers to females high. Steers, because of their docility, are important in maintaining the stability, unity and tranquility of the herd and thereby, increasing milk produc- tion and reducing labor demands. Therefore the sex-structure of a herd has a strong relationship to the goals and Objec- tives of the owners. AGE STRUCTURE The composition of the herds by age also is influenced by a number of factors. A common criticism of the small farm system has been that animals are kept on the farm for a time long beyond their optimal age. This is illustrated by the fact that animals of over 4-5 years of age constitute a large percentage of most herds. Doran, Kemp and Low (1979) report that over 60 percent of the animals in the Swazi herd were over 3 years. They suggest that the age composi- tion is related to the fact that animals are kept for pres- tige, status or as a form of wealth. Alternatively, it may be a failure to understand the ecological environment: bio- logical characteristics of the herd and the objectives of the stockman. The age structure of the female herd is mainly a product of biological restrictions since milk production may be the main interest of the household and a general strategy becomes one of keeping enough cows to ensure an adequate year round milk supply. Secondly, given the high calf mortality, low growth rate, long calving intervals and poor breeding practices, it becomes reasonable to keep a cow in the herd to advanced age just to replace the present population and to allow for growth in cattle numbers. In economic terms, the stockman's objective will be to maximize returns by equating marginal returns with marginal costs. In this case, the marginal returns are measured not in terms of additional beef produced but also the additional calf and milk that the animal could produce in the next year. 23 The marginal costs are generally low given the communal grazing system. It is also common for a stockman to keep an originally productive cow on the farm until its death, in gratitude or appreciation for its productivity. This may involve one or two animals in a herd but is an important indication of a strong relationship that a farmer has with his animals. The survival of a particular animal to an age of ten or more years is an indication of its good qualities. In most cases it will have been able to survive the prevalent diseases, drought periods and to stand up to the rigours of long journeys in search for pastures. In addition it may have other qualities like short calving interval and high milk production. Where cattle are herded in open pastures, an old productive animal may serve as a herd leader, thus maintaining tranquility in the herd. The structure of male cattle is more subject to other factors like their value as a source of draft power, its performance as a breeding animal plus cultural differences like ritual and symbolic values ascribed to bulls. Meat consumption patterns and the degree of involvement in the cash economy are also important (Dahl and Hjort, 1976). In a number of areas where feed lots may be located, the male population in pastoral herds may be reduced substantially due to sales to feed lots. In Kenya, livestock development projects have been indered by shortage of bulls partly as a result of early slaughtering of male calves by most pastoral groups (White, 1980). L! 4 Lack of alternative avenues for investment and the anticipation of inflationary trends may increase the reten- tion period of animals in the herd. Horowitz (1979) put it in the following way: "Where alternative avenues of investment are unattractive or unavailable, the con- version of animals to cash whose value is eroded by inflation is hardly a sound strategy." (pg. 57). Lastly another biological constraint that may lead to the retention of relatively old animals on the farm is the fact that in most cases, due to lack of transport facilities. animals may have to trek long distances to marketing centers. Given the low growth rates, this may dictate that animals are not marketed until they are 4 to 5 years of age, other- wise they may not be able to survive the long distances (Mackenzie, 1973, Jarvis, 1980). 3.2 Production Traits MILK PRODUCTION: In many agripastoral communities, milk production rather than meat production is the primary goal of livestock husbandry. However, Mahadeven's (1966) assessment of dairy breeding research in East Africa concluded that selective breeding for milk production within indigenous cattle of East Africa has failed to give worthwhile results and that there was little reason to suppose on genetic grounds that it was likely to be successful in the future. Schillhorn Van Veen (1981) contends that selection from these indigenous cattle is something that should be c ".-l- ‘~,'-'Ao C '. ’ - I“v~OA.H-v- "...-..- _.. .flr— -fion qu . .-. .. Lg.--“ \‘CA‘ - . ..A'q _. . o .—-‘o----fl.o- I - 25 done. It takes time and patience but avoids losses and costs associated with the importation of exotic breeds (e.g., Holstein, Jersey, etc.). In Kilimanjaro region, zebu cattle account for over half of milk production, supplying more households with milk than grade cattle (Zalla, 1981). The differences in milk yield between indigenous and exotic cattle are generally high. A study by Sacker and Trail (1966) of indigenous cattle in Uganda reported milk yield of between 590-910 kgs lactation for the zebu as compared with 2100-2700 kgs for the exotic breeds in the same environ- ment but under a different management system (Maples and Trail, 1967). Production traits also vary within the indigenous cattle breeds. Sacker and Trail (1966) reported that lacta- tion milk yield and mean daily milk yield in the Ankole (longhorn) zebu cattle of western Uganda was significantly higher than in the shorthorn zebu cattle. For the Ankole breed, age at first calving was 51.3 months, lactation length 239 days, length of dry period 97 days, calving interval 342 days, and lactation milk yield 860 kgs. Cor- responding figures for the shorthorn herd were 51.7 months, 230 days, 106 days, 347 days and 660 kgs. Age at first calving is reported as 49 months for Kilimanjaro region, 3% to 5 years for Nigeria by Zalla (1981) and Pullan (1979) respectively. Wilson and Clarke (1976) reported that 292 of cows in the sedentary herds and 652 of cows in the migra- tory herds in Sudan were in calf before they were four years. _ ...B‘n'.\ 2. ‘s .3 d.. ...LL'- 7.0 Calving interval is reported as 27 to 29 months by Zalla (1981), 27 months by Pullan (1979), 18 months for migratory herds (where owner moves with herd) and 30 for sedentary herds (owner has a permanent settlement thus limiting herd mobility) (Wilson and Clarke, 1976). Williamson and Payne (1978) give a lower figure of 11-14 months as typical of the East African zebu in general. A number of studies have also been carried out to assess the performance of cattle under different farming systems. An intensive study of a number of herds in migratory and sedentary sectors of the livestock economy of Southern Sudan showed that in almost every production parameter, the performance of the former was superior to that of the latter (Wilson and Clarke, 1976). Sedentary herds tend to suffer more from parasites and disease build up in their limited environment, as well as from p sture and water shortages during drought periods and high inci- dences of inbreeding. A study of beef cattle productivity with sedentary herds under traditional and improved management in Botswana was done in 1976 by Rennie, et al. A comparison of productiv- ity over a 4-year period under the two production systems. the traditional system on unenclosed communal grazing (cat- tle post) and ranching within fenced paddocks was made. Calv- ing percentage, 7-month old calf weight, calf mortality and post weaning growth to 18 months of age under cattle post conditions were 46.4 percent, 122.5 kg, 10.2 percent and 88.5 kg respectively. Corresponding figures for cattle on the 27 fenced ranches were 74.0 percent, 177.4 kg, 8.5 percent and 105.8 kg. The study illustrated the potential for increased productivity even before more sophisticated techniques in range management, animal nutrition and animal breeding are employed. However, the study does not show whether the stocking rate and/or carrying capacity of the pastures were the same since this could be an important factor contributing to low productivity in the traditional system. MORTALITY: In most tropical herds, mortality in the first year is very high to the order of 20 to 40 percent (Mackenzie, 1973, Wilson and Clarke, 1973, Shapiro, 1979). There is also a high rate of death in old cows especially in the dry season. The principle cause of death appears to be a syndrome of chronic malnutrition and internal and external parasitic infestations, and old age. The average life span is around 10-13 years (Dahl and Hjort, 1976). Most of the deaths in young calves are due to disease and starvation because owners use most of the milk for family consumption and thus leaving very little for the calf. .—.....—-.---—--.-— ._._ -.._.__.._._.-2....---.-._._,-- ‘,‘ -—'~. -Jt‘... ’- ~...-‘t.‘* . .2114: ”4,. .'. ~‘ra - a .... .--*m-w-_.¢_ _ 28 Table 3.1 COMPARATIVE COEFFICIENTS OF ALTERNATIVE LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS OF ZEBU CATTLE (TANZANIA. 1976) PRODUCTION TRAIT COEFFICIENT TRADITIONAL IMPROVED SYSTEM SYSTEM 1. Females over 3 years of 45% 60% age which calve 2. Deaths of calves before 30% 15% one year of age 3. Deaths of cattle over 10% 5% one year of age 4. Selling age of males 7 years 4 years 5. Sale of surplus and cull 2.8% 18% females 6. Market offtake 4.5% 12.7% Source: D. E. Farris Consultants Report: Tanzanian Livestock-Meat Subsector. 1976, Vol. I. - ,. .-- ‘~ - .. . . » .av‘moI-«D. DH‘.Jh¢m-’WW‘7 -__n_..1..: __ ... I I. _ -._--_ I. . - ‘ ‘— n ' ' '-' . A —-u~.—.- . --*—~-.-J._.-._-- , I F a .omma .mh:w&.:w mcfipoxpmz moom pom mappmo mo woafioCoom one .0 onns>wx ”oopsom we ono.H eaoma rfiomfi ONImfl warm” on N I nl on we no - Hm mm 2 I I. m: I mm mm momemmw myocaoc AHMEm mp09m>pr30 BzmHUHmmmoo we owe 0H we on m: we OOH Empmzw wamowImwnmA awaowpoQ swam cosmpmeDSm mwcmm Homepmmm mwzmx zH mimemwm oneoDQomm Mooemm>HA BzmmmmmHQ mma uzoz< moHemHmmeu¢m¢ e.epen rampage e are: one ow meats macaw: R wmmmoa paso< R upon wcw>amo & mommoa hamo e earn mop ca mzoo muzpmz e one; are as mace ashram: e ate mappmo mSOCowmpcflv snow .: US \0 o- moHBmHmmBoww Ho paom SH HH 0 o H H m w s eeueeewsmHm mm mm o o e n H m m ean nH HH 0 o H N m N n HAHeeem Ho outconsm H H Hesse «OHOHO HHHz 662 q QNOV‘QQOWQQ’Q O‘O ,._I m m monouommwa HH mucum H ouwum maov wcwumuowq umz m mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm mm Hm oq me mm mm mm MO N .02 me as ac we we we we we no we we mm as we on Nm ZOHHUDQOMOH MAHZ DmmOHOOOO HOaHs< «we OBHO> O OHOMOOO OHOMOOO OO wowpaoamouuoo mo cowuweasmk sq.w¢m.¢a OIHIMMI Hw.mw¢ Om.mwc mq.NNm wH.m0H.H mm.qo~.a No.mam.H oa.mNN.H No.mmm.a OH.moH.N ma.wmm.a mm.mom.~ mm.mom.w w~.wuo.a om.moq mHH.HI mausuom poucsoomwn m Hoca. mama. auwa. .OOOO. comm. boom. when. comm. omom. ommq. «mam. Oman. ammo. macs. Numw. o.H ONOHV comm ucooomwa a Nqo.m Neo.m sno.m owq.m wmo.c wwo.c mm~.O com.m wmm.m Hom.q new.m mHo.m mow.m HmH.N nmm mHH.HI monouom uoz m Ammm .Hv 2< ll 3 Number of times animal has given birth. X4 = Age of the animal (years) X5 = Age of the animal (squared) D1 = Dummy variable; lefemale: 0=male X = Significant at the .00001 level * = one-tail test used. 82 XX = Significant at the .1 level XXX = Significant at the .2 level XXXX = Significant at the .8 level XXXXX = Significant at the .9 level The equation explains half the variation in milk yield. This is relatively a good percentage in view of the fact that data used was not complete in that a number of variables that could have been incorporated in the model were missing. The signs of the regression coefficients met the ex- pectations or could be logically explained. The number of times animal is fed bananas has a positive contribution to milk yield. Similarly the number of times animal has given birth and the age of calf at weaning. The age of animal has a negative contribution to milk yield. This is possibly due to the higher calving age for the herd and poor physio- logical performance with age. Otherwise one would expect an increase in milk yield with time over the first few calvings and a decline in latter calvings. Thus it is easier to explain the positive sign for the number of times animal has given birth since most animals had had one or two calves only. This is partly due to mammary gland development in subsequent births and the fact that with subsequent births the animal is more at ease during milking thus facilitating milk let-down. The positive sign for the dummy variable is an impor- tant contribution to the theories cited throughout this paper. Although it was argued that more milk would be available after milking the male calf or subsequent to 83 starving it, the Sign indicates that it is rather the presence of a female calf that is positively associated with milk yield in this system. This could be due to the fact that the animal and calf would be better fed and managed so that milk production is facilitated. In addition the presence of a female calf could mean a longer lactation period and thus a higher total yield for the lactation. The magnitude of the B-coefficients given an indication of the relative importance of the variable in the regression equation. This is so because it is the standardized regres- sion coefficients that were reported. Consequently, the order of importance for the variables is: weaning age of calf, age of cow, number of times animal has given birth, number of days animal is fed banana leaves per week and sex of the calf. The equation is regarded as a mere attempt to explain the variation of milk yield in the sample herd and the variables that influence it. It does not exhaust all the variables that are known to be important nor does it use all possible models in arriving at the final result. CHAPTER VI SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The age-sex composition of a herd in a given pro- duction system is a major determinant of animal sales, milk production, herd growth, resistance to drought and general herd productivity (Shapiro, 1979). Although it is common to observe a higher female to male ratio in most live- stock production systems, little information has been avail- able to eXplain the changes that occur in sex ratios and ages of the animals in the herd. The paper brings together the literature from different production systems in Africa. Production traits, including calving age, calving interval, milk yield, mortality and offtake rates are reported. An attempt has also been made to give reasons for the differ- ences in each production system cited. The study particularly focuses on the W'Arusha of Northern Tanzania. Fifty five households were used in the study. The average herd size per houSehold was 4 animals with the biggest herd being composed of 9 animals and the smallest with one animal. The sample herd structure was found to be 67 percent female and 33 percent male. Fifty four of the animals whose age was known were four years or less. Only 11 percent of the animals were ten years or more and only one of these 84 was a steer, the rest being females. The mean calving age was found to be 3.6 years, calving interval, 26.3 months, weaning age, 10.8 months, lactation length, 10.3 months, lactation production, 411.5 liters and the period between parturition and first insemination was 15.7 months. On the average, each household carried out some form of transaction for the year. Animals of both sexes were involved, females (552) and males (452). About half of the animals were below three years or age and the rest were be- tween 3 to 9 years of age. However, it is important to note that the transactions involved death or distress slaughter (432), raising (462) and slaughter (82). There was a strong indication that all these transactions more or less took place within the sample herd. Therefore little of the transactions could be regarded as commercial offtake. Attempts to explain the variation in milk yield were made with a lot of caution. Only 46 percent of the variation could be explained and a number of reasons are raised to explain the shortcomings of the model used. The age of calf at weaning variable was statistically significant emphasizing the importance of the presence of the calf in facilitating milk release by the dim. The posi- tive coefficient associated with dummy variable (sex of calf) is a further indication that female calves tend to be cared for more and are not slaughtered early (at least before the end of the lactating period). By being with the dam at milking they contribute to longer lactation periods thus higher total milk production. The feeding of banana leaves 80 also has a positive contribution to milk production. This could be an indication of not only the nutrition value of the banana leaves but also their role in providing water to the animals. The simulations made for the herd growth showed that indeed offtake rate could be increased with little risk of reducing the herd size at the current level and still allowing for some growth in the total herd size. However, under the assumptions built in the model, an offtake rate of 13 percent was not feasible. The analysis over a fifteen year period shows that an intensive health program would result in increased returns to the tune of 19,348.47. T.shs.over the period. It is therefore recommendable that village planning efforts be directed towards attaining this goal of improving the productivity of the herd. The analy- sis of family herds as one big herd inevitably biases the results and has important implications in relation to what the herd structure and resource requirements would be under the two systems. Any attempts to recommend changes arising from the conclusions of the analyses need more first-hand knowledge of the production system than was available to the author. Therefore more micro-level studies, specifically attempting to focus on the production system need to be carried out in order to come out with more practical results. The relationship between livestock and crop enterprises need be evaluated with close attention to returns, and competition for resources on the farm. The marketing constraints raised in the paper need to be analyzed in relation to how they 87 influence the livestock sector. There is still much that could be known and done before there is hope to improve the small holder livestock produc- tion systems to levels that would meet both the farmers' goals and objectives and those of the nation. BIBLIOGRAPHY .Anderson, D. R., Sweeney, D. and Williams, T. A. An Introduction to Management Science: Quantitative Approaches to Decision Making. 3rd Ed., M.A. West Publishing Company, 1982. Barrett and Larkin. Milk and Beef Production in the Tropics. Oxford University Press, 1974. Boer, A. J. and Welsch, D. F. "Constraints on Cattle and Buffalo Production in Northern Eastern Thai Village." In Tradition and Small Farm Agriculture. Edited by Stevens, R. D., Iowa State university, 1977. Brown, L. ”The Biology of Pastoral Man as a Factor in Conservation," Biological Conservation, 1:2, 1977. Brown, M. 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Political, Technical and Economic Aspects of Smallholder Milk Production in Northern Tanzania. Unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, Michigan State University, 1981. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. APPENDIX I SUMMARY OF DATA COLLECTED ON CATTLE Sex. Age. Sexual maturity. Breed. Where animal was acquired. Price paid for the animal. Feeding: (1) Type of grass or feeds. (2) Feeding regime (3) Frequency of feeding salt or water supply to animal. (4) Amount of feed fed to animal. Number of times animal has given birth. Months since first given birth. Sex of last calf. Disposition of last calf. Months between last and previous birth. Milk yield. . Lactation length. Age of calf at weaning in month. Age at first breeding for heifers. Months between parturition and first insemination. Type of semen used for insemination. 92 In!!! M.“ I- 1 l APPENDIX 2 A SIMULATION OF HERD AT FIVE PERCENT OFFTAKE (MODEL I) YERP= 0 TUTRL DFFTHVE =10 FEMRLEZ 1 s1 2 9 3 14 4 13 5 7? OFF- 3 MHLE: 1 5 2 6 3 3 4 11 5 25 OFF: 2 VERP- 1 TOTHL DFFTRKE =10 FEMALES 1 22 2 13 3 3 4 13 3 79 OFF- 6 MRLES 1 19 2 12 3 5 4 7 5 29 OFF: 4 VERP- 2 TDTHL DFFTRKE I11 FEMHLE: 1 22 2 19 3 16 4 3 5 31 OFF: 6 MHLEC 1 19 2 15 ‘ 3 10 4 5 5 23 OFF- 5 7529- 3 TDTRL DFFTRKE '11 FEMHLES 1 23 2 19 3 1? 4 15 5 79 OFF- 6 MRLES 1 20 2 15 3 12 4 9 5 26 OFF8 5 7869: 4 TUTRL DFFTRK '12 FEMRLES 1 22 2 20 3 17 4 16 5 32 OFF- 7 MRLES 1 19 2 15 3 12 4 11 5 27 OFF- 5 VEHP- 5 TUTRL DFFTRKE I12 FEMRLES 1 23 2 19 3 13 4 16 5 37 OFF- 6 MRLES 1 20 2 15 3 12 4 11 5 29 OFF8 6 7869- 6 TUTFL DFFTRKE '13 FEMRLES 1 25 2 20 3 17 4 17 5 91 OFF. 7 MHLES 1 21 2 15 3 12 4 11 5 31 DFF- 6 YERPI 7 TDTHL UFFTRKE '13 FEMHLES 1 26 2 22 3 18 4 16 5 95 DFF- 7 MHLES 1 22 2 16 3 12 4 11 5 33 DFF- 6 Venn: 3 TDTfiL DFFTRKE -14 FEMHLES 1 27 2 23 3 19 4 17 5 98 OFF. 7 MRLES 1 23 2 17 3 13 4 11 5 33 OFF- 7 YEHP- 9 TDTfiL DFFTRKE I14 FEMfiLES 1 23 2 24 3 20 4 18 5 101 OFF- 3 MALES 1 24 2 13 3 14 4 12 5 34 OFF- 6 TEHP- 10 TOTRL OFFTfiKE I15 FEMRLES 1 29 2 25 3 21 4 19 5 105 OFF. 3 MHLES 1 25 2 13 3 14 4 13 5 35 DFF- 7 7529- 11 TUTRL UFFTRKE 815 FEMHLES 1 30 2 26 3 22 4 20 5 110 OFF- 3 MBLES 1 26 2 19 3 14 4 13 5 37 OFF. 7 YERP! 12 TDTHL DFFTHKE '16 FEMHLES 1 31 2 26 3 23 4 21 5 116 OFF- 8 MRLES 1 27 2 20 3 1 4 13 5 33‘ OFF- 8 YERP- 13 TDTRL DFFTHKE II17 FEMHLES 1 33 2 27 3 23 4 22 5 12W OFF-10 MHLES 1 23 2 21 3 16 4 14 5 40 OFF- 7 VERP- 14 TUTRL DFFTRKE I17 FEMfiLES 1 34 2 29 3 24 4 22 5 126 OFF- 9 MHLES 1 29 2 22 3 1? 4 15 5 42 OFF- 3 TERP: 15 TDTRL DFFTRKE '13 FEMHLES 1 36 2 36 3 26 4 ’3 5 132 OFF- 9 MfiLEE 1 31 -___2 22 3__13 4 1g 5 44 OFF- 9 APPENDIX 3 A SIMULATION OF HERD GROWTH AT THIRTEEN PERCENT OFFTAKE (MODEL I) TEHP= n TUTRL UFFTRNE =26 FEMHLE? 1 21 2 9 3 14 4 1: 5 77 DFF=20 NFLE: 1 15 3 6 ' 3 4 11 5 :5 OFF: 6 vFRP= 1 TDTRL UFFTPVE =26 FEMRLEI 1 22 2 13 I 2 4 13 5 69 UFF=16 MRLEI 1 14 2 12 3 5 4 7 5 23 UFF=1U 754?: a TDTHL DFFTRKE =26 FEMRLEE 1 2O 2 19 P 16 4 9 5 6D OFFI18 NRLEB 1 17 2 15 3 10 4 5 5 2“ DFFI 7 '11-'69: 3 TOTFIL OFFTRK'E I25 FEMRLES 1 17 2 13 3 17 4 15 5 47 UFF813 MFLEE 1 15 2 13 3 12 4 9 5 16 DFFI 7 '.'t-'.r'>+.5 35 IDFFF=IOFF-IUFFM 36 IUFF=IDFFF+IUFFM 3? IYPSIYP+1 33 IFleP .EQ. fl)EU TU EDD $9 HBVVIFf5> 3“ YSKVIM(5> 31 DO 110 K8194~1 ;3 K2F(K)=(KViFfK)9(1.-DF(K*1>fi)+.5 3? 110 KZMQK)8(KVIM(K)O(1.“DN(K+15))+.5 34 DO 116 Ktlydal 35 VVIF(K*I)IKZF(K) : 36 116 KVIMQK+138KZM(K) k 3? KVIF=KVIF<5>~IUFFF+-IDFFM+(YO’1.‘DM(5))+.5) 4n KVIM(1)'((XOCPCTO.5)O(1.-DM(1))>+.$ 41 K=KVIF55) 49 MTNM8(XOFMRHT>+.5 43 H=KVIMK5)-MINM 44 k0FFM=XO(1.-FNRHT) 45 K=IOFFM-KDFFM 46 IF8KVIM(5)-KUFFM 9 43 VVIF(5>=KVIFKS)+KDFFM 3 4? IDFFNBIOFFM+KUFFM 3 50 IUFFFIIDFFF-KDFFM L 51 enn PPINT 8109IYP-IDFF 43 310 FURNRT<1X’//-1X:’YEHP= ’pTEo’ TDTHL QFFTPKE "~IE) 5? PPINT 800.(J~KVTF(J)~J=‘-Sv1)~IDFFF J 54 300 FHRMHT(1X9’ FEMHLES ’oSfI3~1X013-4¥)9’ OFFt’vlafi ; 53 PRINT 8309(JpKVIMVJJvJslvfiy1)9IDFFM 3 56 330 FURMRT(1X:’ NHLES ’95‘1391X9I394X)9’ UFF-’~13) 57 100 CUNTINUE' 53 STOP 5? EHII ”Enn 0F FILE 99 ELIET ::E”:' 1 . in ':l;l ‘4 3:.- l_n L ‘3‘ .o.. '—A ‘4 ‘PILHLaflhv‘: :ufia- {a} ,'l_u 'u_l r... 7U -4 o- . - . f|_. . 'j J. ._fl 1'. I_._'I l’|_n -u. {I} 'l_| I_..'I ro_l l'u‘. :vfix .. I . .' 20;] 'I_c r4 if: L FILE APPENDIX 9 HERD GROWTH SIMULATION MODEL II 'HICLENDDELB Qflfl filn 110 116 30$ HID -.. HHH ... 32” 1mm DIMENSION DM(S)-DF“539KVIM(S)sKVIFts>aKZFIQJIKZM'4) DRTH DM/.329.1$s.15~.08v.08/ DRTH DF/.10o.0?c.07-:05~.05/ DRTR KVIM/15~é’$c11~35/ DHTH KVIF/3199,14913977/ DPTH CPCT/.?E/ PRINT 900 FDPNFTflx"ENTEP 2 DFFTRKE PETE”3 PERD @10vCUFF FDPNHTKF$.E) I‘f'SK'v‘IN (S) VaFVIFfsu FM99T8X/Y 1793-! DD lflfi 131916-1 THUM=Q. DD 160 K=1~5vl TNUM:TNUM*KVIF(K)+KVIN(K> IDFFIiTNUMOCDFF)+.5 HDFF=IDFF H=KVIF(S) "-’=K"-IIM (S) :=Y+X ' IUFFMxtXOFF¢(Y/2)b+.$ IDFFFuIUFF-IUFFM IDFFsIDFFF+IDFFM IYR=IYR+1 IFVIYP .EQ. QDGU Tn eon IIh)+.S DD 116 F=Ic4~1 VVIF¢K+1>=KZFtK§ KVIM(K+1)=KZMtK> KVIF(5)-KV1FfS)-IDFFF+€X9f1.-DF))+.5 KVIM(S)-KVIM’S)-IDFFM+fY0(1.-DM(5))+.S) KVIMt1)=(>>+.5 KsKVIFts> MINMI(XOFMRHT)+.S X=KVIM(5)-MINM KUFFM=XO(1.-FMPRT) V=IDFFM-KDFFM IFfK .LT. flhkflFFMITDFFM KVIM(5)-KVIM(S)-KUFFM KVIF(5)8KVIF(S)+KDFFM IDFFN=IDFFM+KDFFM IDFFFuIDFFF-KDFFM PPINT BIOsIYfivlflFF FDRMRT<1X://‘1X9’YEHPC ’vIEs’ TDTHL DFFTRKE I’vIE) PRINT 800:(JvKVIF(J>.J-105ol)’IDFFF FDPMRTleo’ FEMRLES '.s<19.1x.13.4X).* UFFH’vIE) PRINT 330'(J'KVIflfJ)!J3195v1)’IDFFM ‘ FUPMHT(IYv’ MHLES ’~5(I391X!I304X)v’ UFF3’913) CONTINUE ?TUP END 100 -,.f.. 8.. 129—0 l‘.“A““l)' S ARIE R B L Y vl 5 On E W N U E rl A 1| 5 N A m H m M l I 3 1293 02956 5466 i 1 "NH ll H W “H i l l \l