AKALYSIS OF MONETARY POLICY
AS SHOWN BY THE TREASURY BILL ‘ TE,

FEBRUARY 1955 - FEBRUARY 1954

by

MARCUS ALEXIS

A THESIS
Submitted to the Graduate School of Michigan
State College of Agriculture and Applied
Science in partial fulfilment of the

requirements for the degree of

MASTER OF ARTS

Department of Economics

1954

5
n;
t

TABLE OF CONT ENTS

Chapter

I.

II.

III.

IV.

BAG KGROUND O O O O O O O O O O O 0 0 O 0

Business Conditions Beginning of 1953
Stock market

Corporate Earnings

New Bond Issue

Change in Economic Conditions

THE PROBIAEM O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0

Statement of Problem

Reasons for Using the Yield On New Issues
of'rreasury Bills

Reason for Using Other Indexes

PURPOSEOFTHISSTUDY. . o o . . . . . . .

The'rreasury Bill Rate As An Economic Stabilizer
Statement of Purpose of the Study'Assumptions
Concerning the Treasury Bill Rate

Federal Reserve‘s Role in Stabilizing Economy -
Eccles' Letter

FmDINGS. O O O O O O C O O O O O O O 0

'Weekly Movements of Selected Indexel'
Treasury Bill Yield
Stock Prices
Insured Unemployment
Business Failures, Industrial and Commercial
Electric Kilowatt Output
Revenue Freight Loaded
Prime Commercial Paper
Menthly movements of Selected Indexes
Industrial Production
Total Manufacturing Production
Unemployment
New York State Savings Bank Deposit to Credit
of Depositors
Inventory
unfilled Orders

Page

ii

Chapter Page
V} cmmmsnm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Treasury Bill Yield and Industrial Production Index
Industrial Production as a Matter of Internal Business
Control
Treasury Bill Rate as a Reflector of Business Conditions
Possible Explanation
BIBLIOGRAPHY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Chapter
VI. APPENDIX. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .23
IJST OF TABLES
Table Part A Page
I. Rate on Three Months Taxable Treasury Bills . . . . . . 2b,
II. Standard and Poor' 5 Weekly Stock Index by Type . . . . . 25
III. Weekly Insured Unemployment. . . . . . . . . . . . 27
IV. Weekly Business Failures. . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
V. Weekly Electric Output . . . . . . . . . . . . o 29
VI. Revenue Freight Loaded Weekly . . . . . . . . . . . 30
VII. Rate on Prime Commercial Paper. . . . . . . . . . . 31

VIII. Monthly Average of Rate on New Issues Three Months Treasury

Bills 0 o e -o o o o o o e o o o o o o o e o 32

IX. Physical Volume of Industrial Production . . . . . . . 33

x. Monthly Unemployment in the United States . . . . . . . 3h
XI. New York State Savings Banks Deposits to Credit cf Depositors 3S
XII. Total Inventories, Sales and Unfilled Orders . . . . . . 36

XIII. Total New Orders, Unfilled Orders and Orders Available for
Production 0 o o o o o o o e o o o e o o o e 38

Part B
XIV. Weekly Department Store Sales in the United States . . . . 1L0

XV. Ratio of Employment in Manufacturing To Total Civilian
Labor Force 0 o o o o o e o o e o o o o o o o hl

Table

XVI.

XVII.

XVIII .

XXIX.

Ratio of Nonagricultural Employment to Total Civilian

Labor Force a e o o e o o o e o o 0

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks

All Leading Cities. 0 o o o e o o o 0

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks

leading Cities Outside New York City. 0 o 0

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks

forNewYorkCity. . . . . . . . . .
Monthly Department Store Sales. . . . . .

LIST OF CHMITS

Weekly Movements of Selected Business Indexes
Weekly Movements of Selected Business Indexes
Monthly Movemmte of Selected Business Indexes
Monthly Movements of Selected Business Indexes

Monthly Movements of Selected Business Indexes

All Charts Follow Table XX.

iii

Page

. id

.145

oh?

.19
.51

CHAPTER I
BACKGROUND

The year 1955 was ushered in with brisk business activity. Business
confidence was high and the outlook bright.

In January, Dwight Eisenhower was sworn in as the first Republican
president since Hoover vacated the White House twenty years earlier in
1955. Business was convinced that the new administration would be cogniz-
ant of its problems and would avail itself of all the resources at its
disposal in order to prove that the faith displayed by its supporters was
not misplaced.

The stock market reacted favorably to the new administration and
visions of lower taxes hence higher earnings contributed to the optimism.

From January 1955 to mid June of the same year, business did in fact
witness a period of favorable activity.

Many corporations reported higher first quarter earnings than those
of a year earlier. Business eagerly sought funds to execute their plans
of action. The outlook for the energetic enterpreneur gifted with ambition
and foresight was good. The horizon appeared unlimited.

In response to a view it held (and one which many businessmen and
economists alike shared)l/ that interest rates should be allowed to move

freely, that is that rates should have more flexibility; a thirty year

 

1This is the thought expressed by Charles Cortex Abbott in his book,
The Federal Debt; Structure and Imfiort a study for the Twentieth Century
Fund and published by that organization in New York in 1955.

 

331% was issued in the spring of 1953.2/

The bond was designed to present desirable characteristics sought by
the investor, namely a sufficiently high rate of interest and a long term
maturity.

By September of 1953, it was becoming clear that the economy was not
behaving as well as it had been earlier, and by December the situation was
of grave concern to the nation as a whole.

February 19514 saw unemployment in excess of 3.6 million and large
concentrations of unemployed workers in such industrial cities as Pitts-
bm'gh and Detroit.

Total employment in February 1953 stood at 60,92h,000. By February
l95h it had fallen to 60,051,000 despite a growth in the total civilian
labor force during this period from 62,712,000 to 63,725,000.

The volume of unfilled orders declined from $76,122 million in February
1953 to‘i5u,500 million in February 19511.2]

However, not all indexes moved in a downward direction. The Standard
and Poor index for all stocks shows a monthly average for all stocks in
February 1953 of 196. By February 1951; the average was 300. The New York
State Savings deposits to the credit of depositors increased from $13,131
million in February 1953 to slh,500 million in February 1951;.

This is the background of events which took place during the period

covered by this study.

 

2Announced in a U. S. Treasury Department Information Service release
on April 8, 1953, but the bonds were dated May 1, 1953 and matured on June
15, 19833 callable on or after June 15, 1978.

3These statistics may be found either in the tables which appear in
the appendix or in the Survey of Current Business, a U. S. Department of
Commerce publication.

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CHAPTER II
The Problem

As noted in the preceding chapter, the economy apparently passed from
a period of soundness in February of 1953 to one of less vigor in February
1954.

In the months that intervened changes were taking place in the econ-
omy which were helping to shape the situation which prevailed in February
of 1954. This paper is concerned with evaluating the policy of the mone-
tary authorities during this period.l/

The vehicle employed in attempting to answer this question is the yield
on new issues of Treasury bills from the first week in February 1053 to the
final week of February 1954.

The reasons for using this rate are (1), the short term interest
rate is sensitive to conditions in the money markets (2), the Federal Reserve
through exercise of its open market powers Can influence the bill rate.
Implicit in reason number two (2) is the assumption that the Federal Res-
erve either through action or inaction may influence the magnitude and
direction of the bill rate.

In support of this assumption, the rates which the Treasury was able
to maintain during World War II are offerred as evidence.2/ These rates

were due in no small part to the fact that the Federal Reserve through its

 

m

 

lBy monetary authorities is meant the Board of Governors of the
Federal Reserve System

2This refers to the 3/8 of 1% yield on Treasury bills; 7/8 of 1% yield
on certificates of indebtedness; and 2%% yield on long term bonds. See
Committee on Public Debt Policy - Our National Debt - Its Histogg and
Meaning Today, New York, Harcourt, Brace and Company Incorporat 1949

pp. 84

open market operations made reserves available to the commercial banking
system and hence contributed to the maintenance of the rate pattern on
Treasury obligationséz/

In addition to the Treasury bill rate, numerous other indexes of bus-
iness activity are included in this study.

The reason for their appearance here is the belief that all indexes
which are generally considered to be relevant in discussions of business
fluctuations should be included. In this study, each of the indexes
studied shall be permitted to display its ability to explain the rapid and
radical changes which occurred in the economy in the thirteen month period

February 1953 to February 1954.5/

 

3See Abbott op. cit. for a discussion of the Federal Reserve's role
in financing World War II

4The terms rapid and radical may appear unwarranted, but what term
would better describe a situation in which unemployment grew by 2,509,000
in five months - October 1953 to February 1954 and in which steel produc-
tion fell from a Federal Reserve Board index of 150 in.March 1953 to 114
in February 1954 - a 24% decline.

CHAPTER III

Purpose of this Study

Now that the reasons for the presence of indexes included herein have
been given, it is appropriate that the general purpose(s) of this study
should likewise be stated.

As revealed by the title this is an analysis of’monetary policy over
a period of time. The 91 day Treasury bill has been used to indicate this
policy. The purely economic reasons for its appearance have already been
given. Another reason for its appearance is that through it can be shown
the rapidity with which the monetary authorities acted to stabilize the
economy. In this respect, the Treasury bill rate reflects directly the
action (or failure to take action) of the monetary authorities.i/

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate monetary policy from Febru-
ary 1955 to February 1954 with respect to the objective facts concerning
the economy as revealed by the several indexes employed as indicators of
business activity.

The level and direction (trend) of the bill rate shall be accepted

as prima facie evidence that at the time in question the policy of the

 

monetary authorities is shown by bill rate changes. For the purpose at
hand, it is possible to go even further and declare that at any period of
time in question covered by this study, the 91 day Treasury bill rate was

a result of the government's monetary policy as adhered to at that time.

 

1Here again the asswnption is made that the Federal Reserve through
its open market operations can influence the rate on Treasury obligations
see; Abbott op. cit., Marriner S. Eccles, Reckoning Frontiers, New York,
Alfred A. Knopf, 1951.

6
The presence of a high bill rate shall be taken as inso fagtg manifes-

tation Of a tight money policy. Presence of a low bill rate on the other

hand shall be construed as ipso facto manifestation of an easy money policy.

 

Within this frame of reference, an attempt shall be made to ascertain
whether or not an easy or tight money policy was justified or even required
under the existing conditions as indicated by the other indicators of econ-
omic activity alluded to above.

In short, the degree to which the bill rate was kept in ellignment with
the needs of the economy shall be investigated.

Such an evaluation is pertinent to an understanding of the economy, and
has often been pointed out by Federal Reserve officials, stabilizing of the
economy and the general welfare are some of its obligations.

In a letter written to the late Senator hagner, ex board of governors
chairman Marriner Eccles wrote,

" Governments acts and policies need to be coordinated so

that their influence upon the economy may help to sust 'n and

stabilize it at a high expanding level of prosperity 2

Perhaps even more important is the fact that the citizens of the
nation are entitled to pass judgement on those entrusted with their welfare.
In such an event they are obliged to be guided by objectivity and approp—
riate investigatory equipment. Equipped with such requisities they are all
eligible to sit as judges, 0n the basis of the findings as revealed in the

following chapter such an attempt shall be made to judge monetary policy

from February 1953 to February 1954.

 

2Marriner S. Eccles, Beckoning Frontiers, New York, Alfred A. Knopf,

CHAPTER I?
FINDINGS

Although there were occasional week to week movements from February 7
to June 6, 1953 the Treasury bill yield moved upward. From June 6 to July 11
the trend was reversed and the 2.416% high fell to 2.007%. July 18 brought
an upturn in the rate which lasted till August lst. From August 8 to
September 12 another reversal took place and the yield fe11922136% to
1.953%.

The trend of the bill yield was downward from September 19 to October 31
after which the trend was upward until it hit its highest point since Sep-
tember 19 on December 26. For the week ending on that date the yield was
1.704%. After reaching this high, the rate fell continually until January 30
1954 when it advanced .02 units after which it alternatively fell rose and
then fall again to the February 27 level of .986.

In all the bill yield had quite an active period. It had a high value
of 2.416% on June 6, 1953 and fell to a low of .893% on February 13, 1954 .
In the course of eight months (June 6,1953 - February 13, 1954), the yield
on Treasury bills had fluctuated 270.55%.1/

A study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research is con-
cerned with statistical indexes of cyclical behavior. One indicator used

in this study is stock prices. It was found that this indicator was 100%

 

1This is in relative terms, that is that per cent 2.416% is of .893%.
For a complete discussion of monetary policy and the Treasury bill market
see; Alhadeff, D. A. - ”Monetary Policy and the Treasury Bill Market,"
American Economic Review XIII June 1952 pp. 326-346.

accurate in predicting, that is forecasting peaks and troughs in the
business cycleég/

Chart I of the appendix compares the movement of stock prices, both
in the aggregate and each class individually, from week to week during the
period February 7, 1953 to February 27, 1954 with the movement in the yield
on new issues of Treasury bills for the same perioduz/

Weekly movements in stock prices were not in the same direction as
the yield on the Treasury bill (new issue) from the period February 7
through.August 15, 1953. The period covered by the weeks ending August 15
to September 19, 1953 was characterized by movement in the same general
direction for all of the stock indexes and the bill yield - downward. After
September 19 however, the stock indicators and the bill yield followed
their separate paths.

In passing, it may be noted that the high stock prices after Septem-
ber 19 reflected in some part random factors such as the expected end of
excess profits taxes; and reduced yield on alternative investments.

Taken as a group, the stock indexes moved in the same direction al-

though several instances can be shown in which there is divergence in

 

2Moore, Geoffrey H. - "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals
and Recessions", Occasional Paper #31, New'Yong National Bureau of Econ-
omic Research, 1950 pp. 34-35.

3The tables from which the graph has been chartered are also included
in the index. Table I contains the data on 91 day Treasury bills (entitled
3 months taxable Treasury bills). Table II contains the stock price data
based on the Standard and Poor weekly stock index.

I.

 

their movementsJQ/

Chart II of the appendix records the movement of the following indexes;
weekly insured unemployment (index I); business failures (index II); electric
kilowatt output (index III); revenue freight loaded (index IV); prime
commercial paper (index V); and the index with whose weekly movements they
are to be compared (index VI).

From February 7, 1953 to June 6 of the same year, a period in which
the Treasury bill moved to its highest point (2.416%) during the period under
survey, the trend of the unemployment indexi/ was downward. For the week
ending February 7, 1953, it stood at 1,119,000,and by June 6, 1953 it had
fallen to 917,000.

After June 6th, the Treasury bill yield moved downward for the follow-
ing three weeks while the insuredjemployment figure continued to decrease
until it reached a low of 852,000 then it moved up again. In succeeding
weeks itflnscilated up and down until it hit a low of 801,000 for the week
ending September 26, 1953.

From September 26 on the trend of the weekly insured unemployment line
(index I) can best be described as following an upward trend. That is to
say that its general direction was up. Such a description holds for each
week‘s movement for this index except for the week ending November 14, 1953

to the week ending November 21, 1953. In the course of this week this index

 

4Witness the movement in the index from October 24, 1953 to October 31,
1953. Index I moved upward; index II downward; index III remained at the
same level and index IV also moved down. Only indexes II and IV moved in
the same direction.

5This is not the total unemployment statistics, but the weekly insured
unemployment. The total weekly unemployment figure is only carried on a
monthly basis in the Survey of Current Business and the Federal Reserve
Bulletin, since the Department of Commerce figures are based on monthly
samples.

10

moved down from a level of 1,180,000 to 1,142,000,52/

Index II contains the data relevant to weekly business failures in the
United States, industrial and commercialaz/

The movement of this index may best be described as chaotic. Its
movement fails to follow any apparent pattern. Alternately, it rises and
falls, moves up and then reverses itself or vice versa. It is indeed a
movement without pattern over any range. For a number of weeks, it may rise,
but invariably it falls; or it may fall first and then rise.8/

At any rate the index ends at a higher level than that at which it
began. On February 7, 1953 it was 159 failures for the week ending on that
date. By February 27, 1954 it was 204 a difference of 45.

We are now prepared to observe index III, electric kilowatt output
and to discover how it behaved during this period.2/

Here again is an index with great variety in its weekly movements.
Many examples can be cited where its movement is in the same direction as
the Treasury bill yield and many can also be cited in which they move in
opposite directions.lQ/ There appears to be no relationship between the

two movements.

 

6This information is also contained in table III of the appendix.
The data on the chart has been taken from this table. The same is true
for each table referred to in connection with an index in this study.

7This information also appears in table IV of the appendix.

8Longest sustained movement in one direction was for the five week
period upward trend from January 16, 1954 to February 13, 1954.

9Information also contained in table V of the appendix.

10They move together from the weeks ending February 28, 1953 to March
21, 1953, and apart from the weeks ending June 6, 1953 to June 27, 1953.
A look at the chart will furnish other examples.

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11

When the period under surveillance ends, the weekly electric output
of Kilowatt hours of the electric light and power industry is at 8,596
million kilowatt hours, whereas it was at 8.129 million kilowatt hours
at the beginning of this period.ii/

The next index which is scrutinized as to its movements from week
to week during this period, is the index for revenue freight loaded weekly
from the weeks ending February 7, 1955 to February 27, 1954. On chart II
it appears as index IV and is labeled revenue freight loaded.13/

Here we find an index whose week to week movements does not closely
follow that of the Treasury bill yield, but which nevertheless over
considerable stretches of time in the period with which we are concerned
moves in the same direction. For instance let us look at the movement
of the two indexes from February 7, 1955 to June 6, 1955. Both indexes
were moving towards h'gher levels during this period, but it is apparent
from the chart that from the week ending February 21 to that ending Febru—
ary 25, 1955 as well as the weeks ending March 23, 1955 to April 4, 1955
and the weeks ending April 13 to May 16, 1955 that the week to week
directions of the movement vary not infrequently.

After June 6th however, the Treasury bill yield moves downward

whereas the revenue freight loaded index moves to a new high in the

week ending September 19, 1955.15/
After reaching its September 19 level high, the revenue freight

loaded index fell till October 10 after which it turned up to a level

close to its September 19 high on October 17.

 

11A difference of 267 million kilowatt hours.
12This information also appears in Table VI of the appendix.
15One should note however, the downturns in the week ending June

27, 1955 to July 4, 1955 period and also in the week ending September
5, 1955 to September 12, 1955.

12

After October 17 the revenue freight index moved downward until it
reached an ebb position on January 2, 1954. After this it moved up from
its January 2 low of 477,805 to 624,229 carloads, after which it fluctu-
ated over a small range (from a low of 617,226 carloads on January 23 to a
high of 628,190 carloads on January 20. However, it fell noticeably from
618,623 carloads in the week ending February 20, 1954 to 595,031 in the week
ending February 27, our final week of surveillance.

Resenue freight had fallen considerably from its February 7, 1953 level
of 690,744 carloads to 595,031 carloads by the time the week ending Feb-
ruary 27, 1954 had passed.%

The rate on prime commercial paper (index V) displays a great deal
of rigidity in its week to week movements as compared with any of the others
studied thus raréé/

Its movement closely parallels that of the Treasury bill yield. Due
to its rigidity it remains constant over long stretches while the bill
yield fluctuates in either direction from week to week. For instance, look
at the period from June 6, 1953 to September 26, 1953 when the prime
commercial paper rate remained stable at 2.75% while the bill yield fluc-

tuated from week to week but moved in a downward direction while so doing.

 

fOne should be Careful in interpreting this data because of the pres-
ence bf seasonal factors. The data used was chosen because it represented
the best available week to week data on carloadings. The Federal Reserve
Board publishes monthly adjusted data. A comparison of the two would show
unadjusted index values for the months February 1953 to January 1954 of
ll,122,127,132,133,128,134,137,135,124,108,108,107, For adjusted data the
index is 130,132,129,130,128,123,130,126,126,122,117,120,117. Comparison
of the adjusted monthly index with table VIII, monthly average of Treasury
bill yields fails to give a good fit.

If the first week of February 1953 is compared to the first week of
February 1954, the decline is revenue freight is not as dramatic as when
the first week in February 1953 is compared with the fourth week. The same
is true if the fourth week in February 1953 is compared to the fourth week

in February 1954. ‘
14Information also appears in table VII of the appendix.

13

In general, the trend of the commercial paper rate coincides with the
bill yield. It moves upward from February 7 to June 6, as does the bill
yield. From June 6 to September 26 it appears to be temporarily frozen.
After September 26, however, it moves in a downward direction 8150.

Differences in the commercial paper rate movement and the bill yield
movement appear only in the weekly movements of the two for the weeks
ending March 7 to March 14, 1953; May'9 to May 16,1953; October 31 to
Nevember 7, 1953.

The movement of these two interest rates thus reveal only a minor
degree of divergence.

Unlike the previous charts; chart III and those which follow it (charts
IV and V) are measurements of monthly rather than weekly movements of the
indexes employed. With the exception of the Treasury bill yield with which

they are compared, these indexes have been taken from sources which only

publish them on a monthly basis.li/

Chart III depicts the movement of the Federal Reserve Board total
industrial production index and the total manufacturing index (which coin-
sidex in movement with the industrial production index, but whose values
are to be found on scale III).

From February 1953 to May 1953 the industrial production index and
the bill yield movements were of the same direction and relative movements
were of the same approximate magnitude.lé/ From May to June, the month
in which the bill yield reaches its peak, the movements are in the opposite

directions. with the bill yield going up and the industrial production index

 

15For the bill yield data is available on a weekly and monthly basis.
Therefore, tables of both appear in the appendix and the values have been
taken directly from this table.

161m plotting these charts, the range over which the fluctuate is put
on the scale against which they are plotted. The scale therefore (except
for minor variations which facilitate plotting), give proportionate movements
within the range of movements. That is to say, for each index each unit of
measurement represents approximately (very close) 1/10 of the movement within
the range. This manner of plotting enables one to plot data not utilizing
the same values on one chart and at the same time giving relative movements
which are quickly noticeable.

I3

 

 

moving down. The movement for the following month for both indexes is

in opposite directions} But from July to September the two move together
in the same direction and in the same approximate ratio. From September

to October, both move downward but the bill yield falls at a faster rate.
From October to Decemben‘the movements again are in opposite directions.
The index of industrial production falls rather sharply whereas the bill
yield moves up in two successive steps. From December to February 1954 the
two again move together and downward. This time the bill yield falls
faster.

The exact description which describes the industrial production move-
ment would describe the manufacturing index.l1/

Chart IV of the appendix, explores the movement of New York State
Savings bank desposits to credit of depositors (index II), unemployment
Cindex I) and the Treasury bill yield.

From February to May 1953 the unemployment index (I) moves in a down-
ward direction while the bill yield is moving towards higher levels. By
June when the bill yield reaches its maximum position, the unemployment
number increases. Then it follows the bill yield pattern and takes monthly
dips from June 1953 to October 1953 where it reaches its lowest position.
From October 1953 to February 1954, the unemployment total skyrockets from
1,162,000 to 3,671,000. In four months, it increases by more than 100%.l5/

The New'York State savings banks deposit to credit of depositors moved
along a consistent path from February 1953 to February 1954. Every month

it was higher than the preceding and obviously its movements did not reflect

 

17Information also contained in Tables VII and IX of the appendix.

18Information also contained in table X of the appendix.

_-_..-

 

15

any movements in the bill yield or vice versaeyi/

Chart V'is a comparison of the Treasury bill yield (index II) move-
ment, with inventory data for manufacturing and trade seasonally adjusted
(index I) and unfilled orders for manufacturing businesses (index III),
seasonally unadjusted.29/

The general trend of the inventory datagl/is upward.

From February to March 1953, inventory (as a % of sales) moved
downward. From April 1953 to February 1954 it was a constant upward
movement except for the May to June 1953 movement and the August to Sept-
ember movement. The February 1954 level is slightly below the January 1954
level also. .

In all, inventory as a percent of sales ranged from a low of 157.4%
in April 1953 to 174.2% in January 1954.

Unfilled orders (index III) displays as persistent a movement downward
as the savings deppeits did upward in chart IV. At no time did the value
of unfilled orders fail to decline from the preceding months level. It
fell continuously from February 1953 when it stood at $76,122,000,000 to
$54,500,000,000 in February 1954. From July 1953 to February 1954, the
slope of unfilled orders line was fairly constant. One should also notice
the steep slope bill yield line downward from August 1953 to October and
again from December 1953 to February 1954. If a straight line is drawn

between the two points July 1953 and February on the bill yield line, it

can be shown that the slope of this downward line is greater than the

 

lglnformation also contained in table XI of the appendix.

20The information appears in table XII of the index. Unfilled orders
are not adjusted at all in the Survey of Current Business from which this
data was taken. Therefore, the best available data had to be utilized.

21Plotted as a % of sales monthly to give the data more relevance
than the mere aggregate totals. For those interested in the aggregates
above; they are in table XII of the appendix.

 

slope of the unfilled orders line for the same period of time.
In the following chapter, the meaning of these movements shall be
interpreted and the monetary policy analyzed in terms of the bill yield

movements.

16

CHAPTER V
CONCLUSION

In evaluating the policy of the monetary authorities at this time,
it is proper to neglect the relative movement of the Treasury bill
yield and the rate on prime commercial paper. The reasons are (1), they
both reflect the price of short term obligations, and (2), to count it
would be in effect ucounting: the same trick twice."

A comparison of the Treasury bill yield movement with the other
indexes reveals that of all the indexes in charts I to V inclusive, the
one with which it most closely moves is the total industrial production
index.E/

While it is not the purpose of this paper to construct a new business
cycle theory, it is necessary to evaluate the findings in the light of the
most illuminating information available.

Because of the asswnptions which were made earlier in this paper and
owing to the fact that the Federal Reserve was ware of this index's move-
ments,3/ one is entitled to conclude that this was the policy of the
Federal Reserve. Of course one does not know how much weight the Federal
Reserve assigned to this indicator, but a glance at chart III reveals at
once the similarity in movement.2/

The problem is now one of evaluating how well this index reflected

business conditions. An appraisal of the monetary policy must hinge on

 

l . . . . .
This index covers the identical range and its movement coincides
with the total manufacturing index.

9 I I V O I I O

“This is the Federal Reserve industrial production index.

9In the previous chapter the divergence in movement at various points
was referred to there is, therefore, no need to elaborate on this at the
present time.

the degree to which the index performs this function.

Field says of production statistics, " production statistics

 

are ordinarily a by-productaginternal business controls which have been
instituted primrily to ascertain whether maximmn production is being
obtained from facilities, men and materials within the organization. In-
ternally they point to effectiveness or lack of effectiveness in differ-

ent units of the organization. They are not developed as indexes of general

 

business conditions or to forecast such conditions."

"In any given business organization, the current and future business
prospects are judged on a. much broader basis than production statistics.
Order back10gs, incoming orders, and market Opportunities which willIrOduce
a continuing flow of such orders receive much attention."y

In the Moore studyi/ 70% of the general production indexes were
formed to be useful as indicators. But one should bear in mind that
these indexes listed by Moore are indicators not of general business activ-
ity, but as indicators of troughs and peaks in business cycles. Such
information is hardlyr useful in the present study due to the fact that
at the present time (end of February 1951;) we do not know where we are
in the cycle. Unemployment is up, above the previous month' 3 level and it
is impossible to tell whether the figure for March will be higher or not.
The same can be said of steel production and all other indexes.

Before proceeding to analyze Federal Reserve policy, it is necessary

to evaluate Field's statement.

 

8Kenneth Field in 'Prochnow, Herbert v. Detemining the
Business Outlook, New York, Harper and Brothers, 1951;.

5Moore, Geoffrey H. op. cit. pp. 314.

 

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19

For this purpose table XIII was constructed. The column which is
most noteworthy is the third,§/ which gives the total amount of orders
available for production.

The data reveals that the two indexes (industrial Production and
total orders available for production) do not move in the same direction
for several months during the time with which we are concerned. From
March to July 1953, the movement of the two indexes is different in
direction for each month. This is acceptable as evidence that (at least
for the period February 1955 to February 1954) industrial production is
a matter of internal business control.Z/

From this it can be concluded that industrial production is not
affected by business conditions alone.

In the light of such evidence, it is reasonable to conclude that for
our period for a number of months (March to July 1955), industrial produc-
tion did not reflect the total volume of orders available. Therefore,
because of its similarity in movement, the Treasury bill yield can also
be said not to have moved to stabilize business conditions.§/

If the bill yield corresponded to an indicator which failed to reflect
economic conditions. Then the question is what did? As mentioned before,
this is not an analysis of business cycles per se. However, any sugges-

uuhmh
tions may shed light on the subject will be welcomed by economists.

Note the constant upward movement of the savings index in chart

 

68cc appendix, section A.

7We cannot say it is proof because factors such as capacity, supply
of materials, labor situation and the like may influence the situation.

This view rests on the assumption that no extraneous factors pre-
vented industrial production from moving along with the total volume of
orders available for production.

20

IV}2/ and the equally persistent trend downward which the new orders index
displays in chart V. The upward trend of inventory as a percent of sales
also warrants attention.

Perhaps the economic conditions which came into being between Feb-
ruary 1953 and February 1954 can be explained in terms of money flOWSrlg/
If so then savings and stock prices, both of which moved up during this
period may be classified as inactive "batteries" which did not contribute
to the economic health of the community by buying goods and creating orders.
The result was to take money from active "batteries" which resulted in the
growth of inventories, decrease in the total volume of orders available for
production and the resultant unemploymentgLL/

As a hypotheses this would have to undergo objective tests which are

not the proper scope of this paper.

 

9This only refers to New York State and thus may have no relevance for
the nation as a whole.

10See Copeland, Morris Albert -.A Study of Money Flows in the United
State, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1952.

11The terminology "batteries" is borrowed from Copeland.

-rv--

 

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY
Abbott, Charles Cortez - The Federal Debt; Structure and Impact, Twentieth
Century Fund, 1953

Abramovitz, Moses - "The Role of Inventories in Business Cycles," Occasional
Paper #26, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1948

Ackley, Gardner — "The Multiplier Time Period," American Economic Review XLI
June 1951 pp. 350-368

Alhadeff, D..A. - "Monetary Policy and the Treasury Bill Market" American
Economic Review XLII June 1952 pp. 326-346

American Economic Association - Readings in Business Cycle Theory, Phila-
delphia, Blaikston Company, 1944

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System - Federal Reserve Bulletin,
Washington

Brett, Elmer Clark - Business Cycles and Forecasting, Chicago, Richard D.
Irwin Inc., 1948

Committee on Public Debt Policy - Our National Debt; its History and Mean-
ing Today, New York, Harcourt Brace and Company 1949

Copeland, Morris Albert -.A Study of Money Flows in the United States, New
York, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1952

Eccles, Marriner S. - Beckoning Frontiers, New York, Alfred A. Knopf, 1951

Keynes, John Maynard - The General Theory of Employment Interest and Money,
New York, Harcourt Brace and Company, 1936

Metzler, Lloyd A. et. a1. - Income Employment and Public Policy, New York,
W. W. Norton and Company Incorporated, 1948

Moore, Geoffrey H. - "Statistical Indicators of Cyclical Revivals and Re-
cessions, Occasional Paper #31, New York, National Bureau of Economic
Research

United States Department of Commerce - Survey of Current Business, Washington

United States Department of Commerce - Survey of Current Business, Weekly
Supplement, Washington

Miscellaneous References

Association of American Railroads Car Service Division - weekly releases,
Washington, D. C.

,1

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22
Edison Electric Institute -'Statistical Summary of weekly electric output
of Kilowatthours of the elctric light and power industry

United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Research and Statistics,
Division of Employment, New York

United States Treasury Department, Information Service releases, Washington

CHAPTER VI
APPENDIX

The appendix is divided into sections, A and B.

Section.A contains tables I to XIII which are used for purposes of
analysis in this study.

Section B contains tables XIV to XX. These tables contain data which
have been collected but because they duplicate movements of other indexes
or fail to be affected to any sizable degree by the changing economic con-
ditions which took place during the time under study, and therefore do not
qualify as indicators of economic conditions then prevailing, they have
not been usedi/

Charts IAV are also part of appendix A.

 

1For instance see table XVII and observe its movements. From Feb-
ruary 1953 to February 1954 the percentages ranged over a mere 3.1 range
and in February 1954 it was found that .1% difference (above for invest-
ments as % of loans and investment and below for loans as % of loans and
investments) existed between it and the February 1953 level.

TABLE I

 

Rates on 3 Months Taxable Treasury Bills*

 

 

Rate on Rate on
Week Ending New Issues Week Ending_ New Issues
February 7, 1953 2.031 Septembérfi, 19753j3957
February 14, 1953 1.993 September 26, 1953 1.634
February 21, 1953 1.976 October 3, 1953 1.583
February 28, 1953 2.070 October 10, 1953 1.397
March 7, 1953 2.164 October 17, 1953 1.438
March 14, 1953 2.098 October 24, 1953 1.372
March 21, 1953 2.029 October 31, 1953 1.220
March 28, 1953 2.036 November 7, 1953 1.306
April 4, 1953 2.029 November 14, 1953 1.482
April 11, 1953 2.9073 November 21, 1953 1.433
April 18, 1953 2.219 November 28, 1953 1.488
April 25, 1953 2.320 December 5, 1953 1.589
May 2, 1953 2.243 December 12, 1953 1.603
May 9, 1953 2.352 December 19, 1953 1.682
May 16, 1953 2.271 December 26, 1953 1.704
May 23. 1953 2.092 January 2, 1954 1.48
lay 30, 1953 2.084 January 9 1954 1.30
June 6, 1953 2.416 January 1é, 1954 1.28
June 13, 1953 2.324 January 23, 1954 1.12
June 20, 1953 2.229 January 30, 1954 1.01
June 27, 1953 1.954 February 6, 1954 1.031
July 4, 1953 2.107 February 13, 1954 .893
July 11, 1953 2.007 February 20, 1954 1.024
July 18, 1953 2.106 February 27, 1954 .986
July 25, 1953 2-126

August 1, 1953 2°157
August 8, 1953 2°136
August 15, 1953 2-116
August 22, 1953 $101
August 29, 1953 73-001
September 5, 1953 1°961
September 12, 1953 1.953

 

*Source Federal Reserve Bulletini

/I

I.

Standard and Poor's Weekly Stock Index By Type

TABLE _;

 

February 1953 - February 1954*

(1935 - 1939 ' 100)

25

 

Week Ending ,Tptal"
February 7, 1953 199
February 14, 1953 194
February 21, 1953 194
February 28, 1953 197
March 7, 1953 196
March 14, 1953 198
March 21, 1953 199
March 28, 1953 199
April 4, 1953 193
April 11, 1953 191
April 18, 1953 191
April 25, 1953 187

 

May 2, 1953 188
May 9, 1953 190
May 16, 1953 159
May 23, 1953 191
May 30, 1953 189
June 6, 1953 185
June 13, 1953 180
June 20, 1953 182
June 27, 1953 184
July 4: 1953 185
July 11, 1953 187
July 18, 1953 185
July 25, 1953 185

August 1, 1953 186
August 8, 1953 139
August 15, 1953 190
August 22, 1953 187
August 29, 1953 183
September 5, 1953 181
September 12, 1953 181
September 19, 1953 177
September 26, 1953 178
October 3, 1953 179
October 10, 1953 181
October 17, 1953 182
October 24, 1953 185
October 31, 1953 186
November 7, 1953 188
November 14, 1953 187

Industrials
21
210
209
213
212
215
216
215
209
206
206
202
204
206
204
206
204
200
194
197
199
20
202
199
199
200
204
205
202
197
195
195
190
191
192
194
195
200
200
203
202

Rails

179
178
183
182
185
166
185
178
174
178
169
171
173
171
179
175
170
166
169
172
175
177
173
173
171
175
174
168
164

159
159
154
155
154
154
155
160
157
158
160

Public Utilities

124
124
124
125
125
125
125
123
122
122
121
120
121
120
121
121
119
116
117
117
118
120
119
120
120
121
122
121
121

120
121
118
119
120
121
122
123
122
123
123

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Standard and Poor's Weekly Stock Index By Type

February 1953 - February 1954 (Continued)*

(1935 - 1939 ' 100)

26

 

 

Week Ending_. Total Industrials Rails Public Utilities
November 21, 1953 187 201 158 124
November 28, 1953 188 203 158 125
December 5, 1953 192 208 161 126
December 12, 1953 191 206 158 126
December 19, 1953 192 207 158 125
December 26, 1953 190 205 155 125
January 2, 1954 190 205 153 125
January 9, 1954 193 209 157 126
January 16, 1954 193 208 157 126
January 23, 1954 197 214 161 128
January 30, 1954 199 217 163 128
February 6, 1954 200 217 165 128
February 13, 1954 201 218 167 129
February 20, 1954 199 216 167 129
February 27, 1954 199 216 165 129

 

*Source Federal Reserve Bulletin

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TABLE III

Weekly Insured Unemployment In The United State

(In Thousands)

February 1953 -February 1954*

27

 

 

Week Endiggg Total Week Ending. Total
February 7, 1953 1,149 October 3, 1953 810
February 14, 1953 1,191 October 19, 1953 834
February 21, 1953 1,194 October 17, 1953 893
February 28, 1953 1,163 October 24, 1953 930
March 7, 1953 1,155 October 31, 1953 958
March 14, 1953 1,120 November 7 1953 1,026
March 21, 1953 1,089 November , 1953 1,180
March 28, 1953 1,056 November 21, 1953 1,142
April 4, 1953 1,053 November 28, 1953 1,365
April 11, 1953 1,052 December 5, 1953 1,468
April 18, 1953 1,037 December 12, 1953 1,510
April 25, 1953 1,015 December 19, 1953 1,520
May 2, 1953 981 December 26, 1953 1,711
my 9, 1953 953 January 2, 1954 1.961
May 16, 1953 940 January 9, 1954 2,109
May 23, 1953 933 January 16, 1954 2.220
June 6, 1953 917 January 30, 1954 2,307
June 13, 1953 886 February 6, 1954 2,307
June 20, 1953 862a February 13, 1954 2,370
June 27, 1953 852a February 20, 1954 2,359
JU1Y 4, 1953 857 February 27, 1954 2,409
July 11, 1953 905

July 18, 1953 941

July 25, 1953 915

August 1, 1953 895

August 8, 1953 911

August 15, 1953 873

August 22, 1953 853

August 29, 1953 844

September 5, 1953 815

September 12, 1953 861

September 19, 1953 844

September 26, 1953 801

 

*Survey of Current Business weekly Supplement
a. United States Department of Labor Bureau of Research and Statistics
Division of Employment New York

TABLE IV

Weekly Business Failures In The United States

Week Ending NUmber

February 7, 1953
February 14, 1953
February 21, 1953
February 28, 1953
March 7, 1953
March 14, 1953
March 21, 1953
March 28, 1953
April 4, 1953
April 11, 1953
April 18, 1953
April 25, 1953
May 2, 1953

May 9 1953
May 16, 1953

May 23 , 1953

May 30, 1953

June 6, 1953

June 13, 1953

June 20, 1953

June 27, 1953
July'4, 1953

July 11, 1953
July 18, 1953
Jilly 259 1953
August 1, 1953
August 8, 1953
August 15, 1953
August 22, 1953
August 29, 1953
September 5, 1953
September 12, 1953

September 19, 1953
September 26, 1953

Industrial and Commercial*

February 1953 - February 1954

28

 

 

 

 

Week Ending Numbe§_
159 October 3, 1953 189
200 October 10, 1953 186
176 October 17, 1953 169
178 October 24, 1953 185
180 October 31, 1953 218
165 November 7, 1953 207
160 November 14, 1953 155
188 November 21, 1953 223
171 November 28, 1953 173
140 December 5, 1953 202
165 December 12, 1953 216
159 December 19, 1953 210
169 December 26, 1953 162
165 January 2, 1954 150
198 January 9, 1954 202
156 January 16, 1954 200
168 January 23, 1954 208
217 January 30, 1954 233
167 February. 6, 1954 238
167 February 13, 1954 277
195 February 20, 1954 215
169 February 27, 1954 204
139
148
184
182
195
150
122
122
178
131
182
152

 

*Survey of Current Business Weekly Supplement

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TABLE V

Weekly Electric Output of Kilowatthours of the Electric

Light and Power Industry*

(Millions of Kilowatthours)

 

 

Week Ending Output Week Endingg Output
February 7, 1953 8.129 September—5,11953’ 8,694
February 14, 1953 8,147 September 12, 1953 7,963
February 21, 1953 8,196 September 19, 1953 8,395
February 28, 1953 8,070 September 26, 1953 8,354
March 7, 1953 8,173 October 3, 1953 8,414
March 14, 1953 8,138 October 10, 1953 8,307
March 21, 1953 8,078 October 17, 1953 8,265
March 28, 1953 8,075 October 24, 1953 8,306
April 4, 1953 8,091 October 31, 1953 8,362
April 11, 1953 8,001 November 7, 1953 8,398
April 18, 1953 8,113 November 14, 1953 8,457
April 25, 1953 8,016 November 21, 1953 8,416
May 2, 1953 7,939 November 28, 1953 8,138
May 9, 1953 7,897 December 5, 1953 8,582
May 16, 1953 7,959 December 12, 1953 8,661
May 23, 1953 8,012 December 19, 1953 8,896
May 30, 1953 7,956 December 26, 1953 8,174
June 6, 1953 8,096 January 2, 1954 8,198
June 13, 1953 8,245 January 9 1954 8,825
June 20, 1953 8,329 January 14, 1954 9,011.
June 27, 1953 8,446 January 23, 1954 8,976
July'A, 1953 7,915 January 30, 1954 8,855
July 11, 1953 8,096 February 6, 1954 8,674
July 18, 1953 8,209 February 13, 1954 8,684
July 25, 1953 8,460 February 20, 1954 8,551
August 1, 1953 8,152 February 27, 1954 8,396
August 8, 1953 8,464

August 15, 1953 8,514

August 22, 1953 8,432

August 29, 1953 8,540

 

_*Source - Edison Electric Institute New'York, New'York

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50
TABLE VI

Revenue Freight Loaded Weekly From Week Ending February 7, 1955 to

Week Ending February 27, 1954 by Cars/

 

 

Week Ending Total Week Ending Total
February 7, 1955 690,744 October 5, 1955 812,554
February 14, 1955 681,750 October 10, 1955 804,070
February 21, 1955 689,555 October 17, 1955 822,559
February 28, 1955 668,654 October 24, 1955 804,415
March 7, 1955 688,016 October 51, 1955 780,865
March 14, 1955 700,108 November 7, 1955 747,868
March 21, 1955 701,142 November 14, 1955 727,058
March 28, 1955 715,557 November 21, 1955 727,752
April 4, 1955 704,517 November 28, 1955 596,250
April 11, 1955 721,159 December 5, 1955 662,055
April 18, 1955 751,628 December 12, 1955 651,951
April 25, 1955 779,804 December 19, 1955 618,452
May 2, 1955 781,499 December 26, 1955 480,978
May 9, 1955 765,411 January 2, 1954 477,805
May 16, 1955 779,805 January 9, 1954 624,229
May 25, 1955 769,618 January 16, 1954 619,871
May 50, 1955 786,755 January 25, 1954 617,226
June 6, 1955 775,489 January 50, 1954 628,190
June 15, 1955 797,425 February 6, 1954 624,585
June 20, 1955 812,578 February 15, 1954 25,706
June 27, 1955 815,450 February 20, 1954 -618,625
July 4, 1955 670,252 February 27, 1954 595,051
July 11, 1955 721,454

July 18, 1955 791,414

July 25. 1955 730.705

August 1. 1955 795,754

August 5, 195‘ 785.549

August 15. 1955 807.537

August 22, 1955 817,451

August 29, 1955 818,461

September 5, 1955 799,079

September 12, 1955 710,554

September 19, 1955 825,884

September 26, 1955 819,709

 

fAssociation of American Railroads Car Service Division
Washington D. 0. (weekly releases)

TABLE VII

Rates on Prime Commercial Paper 4 to 6 Months*

31

 

 

Week Ending_ Rate Week Ending Rate
February 7, 1953 2.31 September 5, 1953 2.75
February 14, 1953 2.31 September 12, 1953 2.75
February 21, 1953 2.31 September 19, 1953 2.75
February 28, 1953 2.31 September 26, 1953 2.75
March 7, 1953 2.31 October 3, 1953 2.69
larch 14, 1953 2.38 October 10, 1953 2.69
March 21, 1953 2.38 October 17, 1953 2.50
March 28, 1953 2.38 October 24, 1953 2.50
April 4 1953 2.38 October 31, 1953 2.50
April , 1953 2.38 November 7, 1953 2.38
April 18, 1953 2.38 November 14, 1953 2.38
April 25, 1953 2.50 November 21, 1953 2.25
May 2, 1953 2.55 November 28, 1953 2.25
May 9, 1953 2.63 December 5, 1953 2.25
May 16, 1953 2.69 December 12, 1953 2.25
May 23, 1953 2.69 December 19, 1953 2.25
May 30, 1953 2.69 December 26, 1953 2.25
June 6, 1953 2.75 January 2, 1954 2.25
June 13, 1953 2.75 January 9, 1954 2.25
June 20, 1953 2.75 January 16, 1954 2.13
June 27, 1953 2.75 January 23, 1954 2.13
July 4, 1953 2.75 January 30, 1954 2.00
July 11, 1953 2.75 February 6, 1954 2.00
July 18, 1953 2.75 February 13, 1954 2.00
July 25, 1953 2.75 February 20, 1954 2.00
August 1, 1953 2.75 February 27, 1954 2.00
August 8, 1953 2.75

August 15, 1953 2.75

August 22, 1953 2.75

August 29, 1953 2.75

 

‘Source -tFederal Reserve Bulletin:

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lenthly Average of Rate on New Issues Three Month*

Treasury Bills February 1953 - February 1954!

TABLE VIII

32

 

 

Month Yield
February 1953 2.018
March 1953 2.082
April 1953 2.177
May 1953 2.200
June 1953 2.231
July 1953 2.101
August 1953 2.088
September 1953 1.876
October 1953 1.402
November 1953 1.427
December 1953 12630
January 1954 1.214
February 1954 .984

 

—¥Federal Reserve Bulletin March 1954 pp. 279

*Same as Market Rate on new issues

.7-..

v
.
- -.--

33
TABLE IX

Physical Volume of Industrial Production in Average
Production Per Working Day on a Monthly Basis/

seasonally adjusted

 

 

 

Total {anufacturing

Industrial Non Total
Montg_f_ Production Durable Durable Manufacturing,
February 1953 134 155 118 136
March 1953 135 155 119 137
April 1953 136 155 121 138
May 1953 137 156 123 139
June 1953 136 154 121 138
July 1953 137 157 121 139
August 1953 136 157 1.19 138
September 1953 133 152 117 135
October 1953 132 151 117 134
November 1953 129 146 115 131
Décember 1953 126 142 112 127
January 19 54 125 11.1 113 127
February 1954 124 139 113 126

 

fSource - Federal Reserve Bulletin.Apri1 1954 pp. 389

Note: Durable goods industries include; primary metals; metal fabricating;
clay, glass and leather products; furniture and miscellaneous manufactures.

 

TABLE X

Monthly Unemployment in the United States

February 1955 - February 1954

(in thousands)*

 

 

Month Total Month Total

February 1955 1,788 September 1955 1,246

March 1955 1,674 October 1955 1,162

April 1955 1,58 November 1955 1,482

May 1955 1,506 December 1955 1,850

June 1955 1,562 January 1954 5,097a
July 1955 1,548 February 1954 5,67la
August 1955 ,240

 

. _ II ,_
*Source - Survey of_Current Bu31ness February 1954 Vol. 541fi2 pp. 5-10

a. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington — Federal
Reserve Bulletin March 1954 pp. 502

New York State Savings Banks Deposit to Credit of Depositors

Millions of dollars)*

TABLE XI

 

 

Month Total Month Total
February 1955 15,421 September 1955 14,014
March 1955 15,550 October 1955 14,056
April 1955 15,626 November 1955 14,141
May 1955 15,702 December 1955 14,541
June 1955 15,041 January 1954 14,442
July 1955 15,881 February 1954 14,500
August 1955 15,920

 

*Source - Survey of Current Business April 1954 Vol. 54-#4 pp. 5-16

55

TABLE XII

Total Inventories, Sales and Unfilled Orders February 1953

February 1954*

(millions of dollars)

36

 

 

 

Total Total Inventory as Unfilled
geek Ending Inventoryl Salesl % of sales Orders2
February 7, 1953 77,603 48,533 159.9 76,122
February 14, 1953 77,603 48,533 159.9 76,122
February 21, 1953 77,603 48,533 159.9 76,122
February 28. 1953 77,603 48,533 159.9 76,122
March 7 1953 78,266 49,671 157.6 75,713
March 14, 1953 78,266 49,671 157.6 75,713
March 21, 1953 78,266 49,671 157.6 75,713
March 28, 1953 78,266 49,671 157.6 75,713
April 4, 1953 78,996 50,186 157.4 74,896
April 11, 1953 78,996 50,186 157.4 74,896
April 18, 1953 78,996 50,186 157.4 74,896
April 25, 1953 78,996 50,186 157.4 74,896
May 2, 1953 79,678 49,395 161.3 73,992
May 16, 1953 79,678 49,395 161.3 73,992
May 23, 1953 79.678 49,395 161.3 73,992
May 30, 1953 79,678 49,395 161.3 73,992
June 6, 1953 80,167 50,003 160-32 73,588
June 13,,1953 80,167 50,003 160.32 73,588
June 20, 1953 80,167 50,003 160.32 73,588
June 27, 1953 80,167 50,003 160.32 73,588
July 4, 1953 81,116 50,398 161.0 72,720
July 11, 1953 81,116 50,398 161.0 72,720
July 18, 1953 81,116 50,398 161.0 72,720
July 25, 1953 81,116 50,398 161.0 72,720
August 1, 1953 81,586 48,138 169.5 70,116
August 8, 1953 81,586 48,138 169.5 70,116
August 15, 1953 81,586 48,138 169.5 70,116
August 22, 1953 81,586 48,138 169.5 70,116
August 29, 1953 81,586 48,138 169.5 70,116
September 5, 1953 82,000 48,652 168.5 67,188
September 12, 1953 82,000 48,652 16805 67,188
September 19, 1953 82,000 48.652 168.5 67,188
September 26, 1953 82,000 48,652 168-5 67,188
October 3 1953 81,805 48,284 169-4 632626
October 10, 1953 81,805 48,284 169.4 63,626
October 17, 1953 81,805 48,284 169.4 63,626
October 24, 1953 81,805 #8:284 169-4 63,626
October 31, 1953 781,805 483284 169'4 633626

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TABLE XII

Total Inventories, Sales and Unfilled Orders February 1953 -

(millions of dollars)

February 1954 (continued)

37

 

Total Total Inventory as Unfilled
reek End -: vento .1 Salesl L of sales OrdersZ
Name:- 7, 1953 81,27. 47,51.171.o .u‘;«- -
November 14, 1953 81,276 47,518 171.0 60,789
November 21, 1953 81,276 47,518 171.0 60,789
November 28, 1953 81,276 47,518 171.0 60,789
December 5, 1953 81,070 47,255 171.6 58,308
December 12, 1953 81,070 47,255 171.6 58,308
December 19, 1953 81,070 47,255 171.6 58,308
December 26, 1953 81,070 47,255 171.6 58,308
January 2, 1954 80,761 46,342 174.2 56,128b
January 9 . 1954 80,741 46,342 174.2 56,128b
January 16, 1954 80,741 46,342 174.2 56,128b
January 30, 1954 80,741 46,342 174.2 56,128b
February 13, 1954 80,3401» 46,709b 1728b 54,5001»
February 20, 1954 80,340b 46,709b 172%b 54,500b
February 27 , 19 5,!+ 80 ,340b [,6 ,709b 172%!) 54 , 5001)

 

*United States Department of Commerce, Survey of Current Business
V01. 34 #3 March 1954 pp. 53-3, s-4

1. End of month totals for manufacturing and trade seasonally adjusted
2. End of month totals for manufacturing, unadjusted

b. United States Department of Commerce Survey of Current Bu§iness Vol. 34
#4 April 1954 pp. 8 3-4

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38

TABLE XIII

Total New Orders, Unfilled Orders and Orders_Avai1able
for Production: February 1953 - February 1954*

(millions of dollars)

 

Unfilled Orders Total Available

 

 

 

Month New Orders End of Month for Production
Ififiuumry'19, , , *100,187“1 1£"7"'
March 1953 26,349 75,713 102,471

April 1953 25,479 74,896 101,192

May 1953 24,564 73,992 99,460

June 1953 25,654 73,588 99,646

July 1953 23,832 72,720 97,420
August 1953 22,672 70,116 95,392
September 1953 23,235 67,188 93,351
October 1953 23,282 63,626 90,470
November 1953 203955 60,789 84,581
December 1953 21,448 58,308 82,237
January 1954 20,842 56,128 79,150
February 1954 21,383 54,500 77,511

 

*Unadjusted Totals: Source: Survey of Current Business, April 1953

{Computed by adding the totals of the new orders column for that
month and the unfilled orders column for the preceding month

1. Computed by addingihe figure from the new orders column for Feb-

ruary and the unfilled orders figure for January.

All other totals in

this column can be obtained from using data in table . February figure
was obtained by using unfilled orders for January 25 contained in the

March 1954 Survey of Current Business pp. s-4.

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APPENDIX B

40

TABLE XIV

“Weekly Department Store Sales in the United States
February 1953 - February l95h*»
(1947 - 1949 'I 100)

 

 

'Week Ending Sales ‘Weesznding, Sales
February‘7ill953 88 October 3, 1953‘* 112
February 1., 1953 92 October 10, 1953 120
February 21, 1953 85 October 17, 1953 118
February 28, 1953 93 October 24, 1953 113
mercb 7, 1953 96 October 31, 1953 122
march 14, 1953 100 November 7, 1953 121
march 21, 1953 109 ’ November 14, 1953 133
March 28, 1953 112 November 21, 1953 131
April A, 1953 118 November 28, 1953 133
April 11, 1953 97 December 5, 1953 190
April 18, 1953 105 December 12, 1953 216
April 25, 1953 10h December 19, 1953 234
may 2, 1953 114 December 26, 1953 163
May 9, 1953 127 January 2, 195B 82
May 16: 1953 105 January 9: 195,-!- 94
Nhy 23, 1953 112 January 16, 1954. 85
may 30, 1953 97 January 23, 1954 86
June 6, 1953 118 January 30, 1954 86
June 13, 1953 112 February 6, 1954 86
June 20, 1953 111 February 13, 1954 91
June 27, 1953 94 February 20. 1954 86
July 4, 1953 79 ngruary 27, 1954 90
July 11, 1953 92

July 18, 1953 84

July 25, 1953 83

August 1, 1953 86

August 8, 1953 92

August 15, 1953 95

August 22, 1953 100

August 29, 1953 100

September 5, 1953 100
September 12, 1953 102
September 19, 1953 120
September 26, 1953 11h

 

*Survey of Current Business -'week1y supplement (seasonally'unadjusted)

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a

TABLE IV

Ratio of Employment in Manufacturing to Total Civilian
Labor Force February 1953 - Fabruary l95h*

(in t housands)

 

 

Total Civilian Eknployment in W

 

 

Week Ending Labor Force Manufacturing Manufacturig
February 7, 1953’ 62,712 17,031 27.1
February 1h, 1953 62,712 17,031 27.1
February 21, 1953 62 ,712 17,031 27.1
February 28 , 1953 62,712 17,031 27.1
march 7, 1953 63,138 17,135 27.1
march 1t. 1953 63,13u 17,135 27.1
March 21, 1953 63,13u 17,135 27.1
merch 28, 1953 63,13u 17,135 27.1
April A, 1953 62,810 17,077 27.2
April 11, 1953 62,810 17,077 27.2
April 18, 1953 62,810 17,077 27.2
April 25, 1953 62,810 17,077 27.2
may 2, 1953 62,96t 17,0uo 27.1
may 9, 1953 62,96u 17,080 27.1
may 16, 1953 62,96h 17,0h0 27.1
may 23, 1953 62,96h 17,080 27.1
may 30, 1953 62,968 17,080 27.1
June 6, 1953 68,738 17,162 26.5
June 13, 1953 68,73h 17,162 26.5
June 20, 1953 6h,73h 17,162 A 26.5
June 27, 1953 6h,73h 17,162 26.5
July h, 1953 68,668 17,069 26.h
Ju1y 11, 1953 6b,668 17,069 26.h
July 18, 1953 6h,668 17,069 26.8
July 25, 1953 6h,668 17,069 26.h
August 1, 1953 6u,6b8 17,258 26.7
August 8, 1953 . 68,688 17,258 26.7
August 15, 1953 6h,6h8 17,258 26.7
August 22, 1953 6h,6h8 17,258 26.?
September 5, 1953 63,552 17,221 27.1
September 12, 1953 63,552 17,221 27.1
September 19, 1953 63,552 17,221 27.1
September 26, 1953 63,552 17 , 221 27.1

 

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TABLE XV

Ratio of Employment in Manufacturing to Total Civilian

Labor Force February 1953 - February 195h* (Continued)

(in thousands)

h2

 

Total Civilian Eknployment in % in '
“31¢ Ending Labor Force Manufacturing Manufacturing
October 3, 1953 63,u0u 17,017 26,8
October 10, 1953 63,hou 17,017 26.8
October 17, 1953 63,101.; 17,017 26.8
October 211,, 1953 63,101.; 17,017 26.8
October 31, 1953 63,hou 17,017 26.8
November 7, 1953 63,353 16,7(B 26.14
November In, 1953 63,353 16,708 26.u
November 21, 1953 63,353 16,708 26.u
November 28 , 1953 63,353 16,7(B 26.1;
December 5, 1953 62,6114 16,1710 26.3
December 12, 1953 62,611.; 16,).d10 26.3
December 19, 1953 62 ,6111 16,111.10 26.3
December 26, 1953 62,6114 16,111.10 26.3
January 2, 1958 62,137a 16,113a 25.9
January 9, 19511 62,137a 16,113a 25.9
January 16, 1951; 62 ,137a 16,1138. 25 .9
January 30, 1951; 62,137a 16,113a 25.9
February 6. 1951; 63,h91a 16.0271» 25.2
February 13, 19Sh. 63,h91a 16,027b 25.2
February 20, 195k 63,h91a 16,027b 25.2
February 27, 195k 63,h9la. 16,027b 25.2

 

{Source - Monthly Labor Review - United States Department of

Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note - Data in source is given on a monthly basis, but has been

used here as if it were an average for each week in the month.

a. Source - Survey of Current Business March 195’; p. s-lO & 11 (old

sanple) data are preliminary

b. Source - Federal Reserve Bulletin March 19Sh pp. 302.

also preliminary.

This data is

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TABLE XVI

Ratio of Nonagricultural Enployment to Total Civilian Labor
Force February 1953 - February 1951;!-

(in thousands)

 

JTotal CiviIian Nonagricultural Trien-

 

 

Week Didini A Labor Force haployment Agricultural
M'ruary' ' 7, 1953 62,712 55,558 88.6
" February 11:, 1953 62,712 55,558 88.6
Febvmv 21. 1953 62,712 55,558 88.6
February 28, 1953 62, 712 55,558 88 .6
March 7. 1953 63,131: - 55.7140 88 .3
lhreh 11» 1953 63.1317 55.7140 88 .3
March 21. 1953 63,131; 55,7170 88.3
March 28 , 1953 63,1314 55,7110 88 .3
rprfl. h. 1953 62.810 55,158 87.8
April 11. 1953 62,810 55,158 87.8
April 18, 1953 62,810 55,158 87.8
April 25, 1953 62,810 55,158 87.8
W 2, 1953 62.961; 55,268 87-8
May 9, 1953 62,961, 55,268 87.8
May 16, 1953 - 62,961, 55,268 87.8
M 23: 1953 6299614 559268 8708
May 30. 1953 62.961: 55.268 87.8
June 6, 1953 614,731!» 5592,46 8503
June 13, 1953 68,731; 55,2176 85.3
June 20, 1953 68,731; 55,2176 853
June 27, 1953 6h,73h 55,2176 85.3
July 8, 1953 68,668 55,192 85.8
July 11, 1953 617,668 55.1192 85.8
July 18', 1953 617,668 55,892 85.8
July 25, 1953 617,668 55.1792 85.8
August 1’ 1953 61436148 56:13h 8608
August 8. 1953 6h,6178 56,131; 86.8
August 15. 1953 6h,6h8 56,131; 86.8
August 22, 1953 68,618 56,131; 86.8
September 5, 1953 63,552 55,0111: 86.6
September 12, 1953 63,552 55,011; 86.6
September 19, 1953 63,552 55,018, 86.6
September 26, 1953 63 ,552 55,011; 86.6

TABLE XVI

Ratiooi‘ Nonagricultural Employment to Total Civilian Labor
Force February 1953 - February 19514-19 (Continued)

(in thousands)

 

‘ifotal Civilian Nonagricultural 5 Non-.

Week En¥ Labor Force %1ogent Agricultural
to er ,193 3, 0.1 3 .9

’
October 10, 1953 63,bou 55,083 86.9
October 17, 1953 63,bou 55,083 86.9
October 2h, 1953 63,hOh 55,083 86.9
October 31, 1953 63,h0h 55,083 86.9
November 7, 1953 63,353 55,2714 87.2
November 18, 1953 63,353 55,278 87.2
November 21, 1953 63,353 55,27h 87.2
November 28, 1953 63,353 55,27h 87.2
December 5, 1953 62,6lh 55,326 88.h
December 12, 1953 62,61h 55,326 88.h
December 19, 1953 62,61h 55,326 88.h
December 26, 1953 62,6lh 55,326 88.h
January 2. 195k 62.137a Sh,h33a 87.6
January 16’ 19514 62,1373 514911333 8706
January 23, 195h 62,137a Sh,h33a 87.6
January 30, 195h 62,137a Sh,h33a 87.6
February 6, 195h 63,h9la 5h,h80a 85.8
February 13, l95b 63,h9la 5h,h80a 85.8-
February 20, 195k 63,h91a 5h,h80a 85.8
February 27, l95h 63,h9la 5h,h80a 85.8

 

*60urce - Monthly Labor Review; United States Department of Labor,
Bureau of Labor Statistics

Note as Data Available on Monthly basis only. figures have been
used as an average for each week within the respective months.

a. Source - Survey of Current Business March 19514 pp. s-lO Figures based
on old sample

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h5

TABLE XVII

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly'Reporting Banks
February 1953 - February 195k 000,000 omitted*

(for leading cities, including New York)

 

 

 

 

*TEEEI i of i of
Loans and. Loans and. Loans and
k.En Investments Loans Inrestments Investments Investments

gjfi'ebmary 7, 19 3 77,38 315600531193 39,3 58 "50.5 "
February 114’ 1953 779878 38,685 14907 39,193 5003
Febmary 21, 1953 78,011; 38,892 19.9 39,122 50.1
February 28, 1953 77,711 38,775 h9.9 38.936 50.1
March 7, 1953 77,53h 38,770 50.0 38,7614 50.0
Ihrch 11., 1953 77,8171; 38.973 50.0 38.781 50-0
March 21, 1953 78,010 39,1211 50.6 38,569 h9.h
March 28, 1953 77,808 39,588 50.9 38,220 89.1
April 1,, 1953 76,827 39,687 51.6 37,180 1.8.1:
April 11, 1953 76,882 39,508 51.8 37,37h h8.6
April 18, 1953 76,925 39,591; 51.5 37,331 118.5
April 25, 1953 76,h12 39.377 51.5 37.035 hB-S
May 2, 1953 76,301 39,173? 51.7 36,861, 88.3
May 9, 1953 76,238 39,508 51.8 36,730 88.2
may 16, 1953 75,809 39,263 51.8 36,516 88.2
Mac 23, 1953 76,017 39,685 52.2 36,332 87.8
may 30, 1953 ' 75,879 39,581 52.1 36,338 h7.9
June 20, 1953 76,610 39,651: 51.7 36,986 88.3
June 27, 1953 76,065 39,1113 51.9 36,622 18.1
July 11, 1953 76,067 39.366 51.8 36,701 50.9
July 18, 1953 80,0118 39,368 19.1 10,780 50.5
July 25, 1953 79,992 39,623 h9.S h0,369 50.5
August 1, 1953 79,606 39,381 179.5 80,225 50.2
August 8, 1953 79,870 39,811 h9.8 170,059 89.9
August 15, 1953 79,811; 39,963 50.1 39,851 119.9
August 22, 1953 79,3h9 39:73h 50.1 39,515 h9.9
August 29, 1953 79,301 39,687 50.0 39,611; 50.0
September 5, 1953 79,385 80,067 50.5 39,318 h9.5
September 12, 1953 79,138 h03099 50.7 39,039 h9o3
September 19, 1953 79,182 110,261 50.7 39,221 179.3
September 26, 1953 799916 3939142 5000 38,971} 5000

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16

TABLE XVII

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks
February 1953 -'February 1951 000,000 omitted* (continued)

(for leading cities, including New York)

 

 

 

Total 1 of % of

Loans and Loans and Loans and
Week Ending Investments Loans Investments Investments Investments
October 3, 1953 78,901 39,755 55.3 39.1957 ’19.?
October 10, 1953 79,115 10,171 50.8 38,911 19.2
October 17, 1953 78,902 10,037 50.7 38,865 19.3
October 214, 1953 70.072 39.929 50.5 39.113 19.5
October 31, 1953 79,538 140,291 50.7 39,211 19.3
November 7, 1953 79,113 10,221 50.7 39,189 19.3
November 11, 1953 80,191 10,650 50.5 39,811 19.5
November 21, 1953 80,510 10,511 50.3 10,029 19.7
November 28, 1953 80,371 10,210 50.0 10,161 50.0
December 5, 1953 80,522 10,268 50,0 10,251 50.0
December 12, 1953 80,386 140,311 50.1 110,075 119.9
December 19, 1953 81,058 10,560 50.0 10,198 50.0
December 26, 1953 80,896 110,707 50.3 110,189 19.?
January 2, 1951 81,302 11,020 50.5 10,282 19.5
January 9, 1951 80,819 10,116 50.0 10,373 50.0
January 16, 1951 80.376 10,030 19.8 10.316 50.2
January 23, 1951 79,838 39,320 19.2 10,518 50.8
January 30, 1951 80,070 39,239 19.0 10,831 51.0
February 6, 1951.1 80,660 39,963 119.5 140,697 50.5
February 13. 1951 79,868 39.785 19.8 10.083 50.2
February 20. 1951 79,872 39,796 19.8 10,076 50.2
February 27, 19514 79,7141: 39,1457 149.5 140,287 50.5

 

 

 

*Source Federal Reserve Bulletin

Note - Dates do not correspond exactly to those in the Federal
Reserve Byllartin. The dates employed have been chosen so as to make
the data comparable to other data collected for which the dates given
above are valid.

(‘

(U

/‘

17

TABLE XVIII

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks
Fobruary 1953 - February 1951; 000,000 omitted-I

(for leading cities outside New York City)

 

Total % of % of
Loans and Loans and Loans and

Week Eng Investments Loans Investments Investments Investments
February 7, 19 3 ,990 2 3 9 07 30:39 303

February 111, 1953 55,973 26,7214 146.9 30,2149 53.1
February 21, 1953 56,929 26,731 17.0 30,195 53.0
February 28, 1953 56,686 26,639 17.0 30,017 53.0
Ibrchc7; 1953 56,611 26,701 17.16 29,910 52.8
Nhrch 11, 1953 56,805 26,920 17.1 29,885 52.6
March 21, 1953 56,797 27,136 17.8 29,661 52.2
March 28. 1953 56,618 27,221 18.1 29,121 51.9
April 1, 1953 55,722 27,157 18.7 28,565 51.3
April 11, 1953 55,985 27,186 18.6 28,799 51.1
April 18, 1953 56,063 27,176 18.5 28,887 51.5
April 25. 1953 55.765 27.039 18.5 28.726 51.5
May 2, 1953 55,688 27,105 18.7 28.583 51.3
May 9, 1953 55,731 27,163 18.7 28,571 51.3
may 16, 1953 55,579 27,178 18.9 28,101 51.1
May 23, 1953 55,117 27,190 19.0 28,257 51.0
May 30, 1953 55,361 27,110 19.0 28,221 51.0
June 6, 1953 55,109 27,085 18.9 28,321 51.1
June 13: 1953 5535114 279139 14809 28,3714 51.1
June 20, 1953 55,718 27,231 18.9 28,187 51.1
June 27. 1953 55,153 27,211 19.1 28,239 50.9
July 1, 1953 55,639 27,321 19.1 28,318 50.9
July 11, 1953 55,576 27,292 19.1 28,281 50.9
July-18, 1953 58,022 27,260 17.0 30,762 53.0
July 25, 1953 57,993 27,501 17.1 30,189 52.6
August 1, 1953 57,812 27,127 17.1 30,115 52.6
August 8. 1953 58.001 27,595 17.6 30,106 52.1
August 15: 1953 58,129 279783 14708 3033116 5202
August 22, 1953 57,959 27,672 17.8 30,287 52.2
August 29, 1953 57,895 27,611 17.7 30,251 52.3
September 5, 1953 57,777 27,758 18.0 30,019 52.0
September 13, 1953 57,671 27,766 118.1 29,905 51.9
September 19, 1953 57,817 27,793 18.0 30,651 52.0
September 26, 1953 57,115 27,670 18.2 29,775 51.8

(O

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I.

‘1‘

TABLE XVIII

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks
February 1953 - February 1951 (continued) 000,000 omitted*-

( for leading cities outside New York City)

 

 

73821 $10: ails?
Loans and Loans and Loans and

Investments Loans Investments Investments Investments

9:57,312 272511 18.0 29,801 ‘452,o

'Week Endin
OEEEEEFIEIEI953

October 17, 1953 57,526 27,731 18.2 29,792 51.8
October 21, 1953 57,106 27,605 18.1 29,801 51.9
October 31, 1953 57,615 27,768 18.2 29,887 51.9
November 7, 1953 57,911} 27,9814 15803 29,930 5107
NOVGmber 11;, 1953 583358 27.9936 11709 30.91422 5201
November 21, 1953 58,526 27,920 17.7 30,606 52.3
November 28, 1953 58,182 27,890 7.7 30,592 53.2
December 5. 1953 58,557 27,887 17.6 30,670 52.1
December 12, 1953 58,116 27,925 17.8 30,521 52.2
December 19, 1953 58,617 27,813 17.5 30,801 52.5
Member 26, 1953 58,886 28,250 118.0 30,627 52.0
January 2, 1951 58.718 28,106 17.9 30,612 52.1
January 9, 1951 58,808 27,696 17.1 30,830 52.9
January 16. 1951 58,709 27,799 17.1 30,110 52.6
January 23, 19511 58,187 27,558 117.1 30,929 52.9
January 30. 1951 58,386 27,151 17.0 30,032 53.0
February 6: 199-1 58,512 27,729 147014 309783 52.6
February 13, 1951 58,215 27.760 17.7 30,181 52.3
February 20: 19514 589163 27,600 14705 309503 5205
February 27, 1951 58.118 27.623 17.5 30,195 52.5

 

*Sohrce - Federal Reserve Bulletin

Note - Dates do not correspond exactly to those in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin. The dates employed have beenchosen so as to make the
data comparable to Other data collected for 1which the dates given are
valid.

(I

f‘

I‘

I.

19

TABLE XIX

Loan and Investment Statistics of Weekly Reporting Banks
February 1953 - February 1951 000,000 omitted*
(for New York Ci‘W)

 

 

Itotal Tot j of
Loans and Loans and Loans and

Ieek my? Investments Loans Investments Investments Investments
ruary , 20,9 129ml: 57.2 8,9618 14.208
February 111, 1953 20,905 11,961 5702 8,910.1 12.8
February 21, 1953 21,085 12,158 S707 8,927 14203
March 7, 1953 209920 129066 5707 8,894 112.3
March 11, 1953 21,039 12,053 57.3 8,986 12.7
March 21, 1953 21,213 12,305 58.0 8,908 12.0
March 28, 1953 21.160 12.361 58.1 8,796 11.6
Apr-11 11, 1953 20,897 12,322 59.0 8,515 11.0
April 18, 1953 20.9862 129,418 S905 8,1111}; 11005
April 25, 1953 20.617 12,338 59.8 8,309 10.2
May 2, 1953 20,613 12,332 59.8 8,281 10.2
May 9, 1953 20,501 12,315 60.2 8,159 39.8
May 16, 1953 20,230 129%; 5907 8,115 110.3
May 23, 1953 20,570 12,195 60.7 8,071 39.3
May 30, 1953 20,515 12,101 60.1 8,111 39.6
June 6, 1953 20,572 12,351 60.1 8,218 39.9
June 13, 1953 20,952 12,527 59.8 8,125 10.2
June 20, 1953 20,922 12,123 59.1 8,199 10.6
June 27, 1953 20,612 12.229 59.3 8,383 10.7
July 1, 1953 20,906 12,328 59.0 8,578 11.0
July 11, 1953 20,191 12,071 58.9 35117 11.1
July 18, 1953 22,026 12,008 51.5 10,018 15.5
August 1, 1953 21,999 11.958 55.1 9,750 15.0
August 8, 1953 21,7314 12,215 55 .0 9,653 1411.].
August 29, 1953 21.390 12.016 56.1 9,360 13.7
September 5, 1953 21,1406 12,309 5603 9,299 11.303
September 12, 1953 21,“ 12,333 5705 9313,41 ’42.;
September 19, 1953 21,167 12.168 57.6 9,167 12.1

 

Ck

50
TABLE XIX

Loan and Investment Statistics of weekly Reporting Banks
February 1953 - February 1951 (continued) 000,000 omitted*
(for New YOrk City)

 

Total % of i'of
Loans and Loans and. Loans and

Week End' Investments Loans Investments Investment Investments
October 3, 1953 21,559 12,161 53.1 9,39; 13.6

October 10, 1953 21,727 12,138 57.2 9,289 12.8
October 17, 1953 21,376 12,303 57.6 9,073 12.1
October 21, 1953 21,666 12,321 56.9 9,312 13.1
October 31, 1953 21,883 12,526 57.2 9,357 12.8
November 7, 1953 21,199 12,210 56.9 9,259 13.1
November 11, 1953 22,136 12,711 57.1 9,122 12.6
November 21, 1953 22,011 12,591 57.2 9,123 12.8
November 28, 1953 21,889 12,320 56.3 9,569 13.7
December 5, 1953 21,965 12,381 56.1 9,581 13.6
December 12, 1953 21,910 12,386 56.5 9,553 13.5
December 19, 1953 22,111 12,712 56.7 9,691 13.3
December 26, 1953 22,010 12,118 56.6 9,562 13.1
January 2, 1951 22,581 12,911 57.2 9,670 12.8
January 9, 1951 22,011 12,177 56.7 9,531 13.3
January 16, 1951 21,667 12,231 56.1 9,136 13.6
Januazy 23. 1951 21,351 11.762 55.1 9,589 11.9
January 30, 1951 21,681 11,785 51.3 9,899 15.7
February 6, 1951 22,118 12,231 55.2 9,911 11.8
February 13’ 19511 213623 123025 5506 9,589 M401!- -
February 20, 1951 21,709 12,136 55.9 9,573 11.1
February 27, 1951 11,831 51.7 9,792 15.3

21,627

 

*Source - Federal Reserve Bulletin

Note -'Dates do not correspond.exactly to those in the Federal
Reserve Bulletin. The dates employed have been chosen so as to
make the data comparable to other data collected.for which the dates
given above are valid.

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Monthly Department Store Sales Seasonally'Adjusted

By'mbnth; February 1953 - February 1951!

(Index numbers 1917 - 1919 average I 100)

TABLE XX

51

 

February 1953 112

march 1953 115
April 1953 110
MAY 1953 117
June 1953 115
July 1953 113
August 1953 112

September 1953
October 1953

November 1953
December 1953

January 1951
February 1951

107
110
113
112
107
109

 

fibource - Survey of Current Business April 1951 Vol. 10;#1 pp. 199

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