BNVE’RORKENTAL ANS} STATISTICAL CGNSIEERKFIMS EN EVALUATING THE EMERIHESS OF FWWER BEDS FBGM SELECTED BEGHBUSH BLUEBERRY CULHVARS TSIONS for “to Dogma of M. 5.. MCHEGAR STATE UNIVERSITY Harry Clair Bittenbender 3974 THESIS ‘,—-M.--. i “V -,- ABSTRACT ENVIRONMENTAL AND STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN EVALUATING THE HARDINESS OF FLOWER BUDS FROM SELECTED HIGHBUSH BLUEBERRY CULTIVARS By Harry Clair Bittenbender The flower bud hardiness of seven commercial highbush blueberry cultivars (Vaccinium australe Small) was deter- mined from fall to spring via field survival and controlled freeze data. Good agreement was shown between hardiness rank of cultivars determined by these methods and the results of previous researchers. Quantal response data were adapted to fit the Spearman—Karber equations. The use of these equations enabled the T temperature at which 50’ 50% bud mortality occurs, and the variance around the T50 to be computed. A computer program was written to determine the T50, T50 mean, '8' statistic, and field survival from the data collected from field observations and controlled freezes. The effects of induced changes in bud moisture content and storage temperature on hardiness were studied. The results seem to indicate that separate mechanisms exist for dehardening due to increased moisture content and dehardening by high temperatures. Multiple regression Harry Clair Bittenbender equations using components of hardiness, based on one year's phenological and environmental data, were created to predict TSO'S within 1°C of observed TSO's for a given cultivar and date. ENVIRONMENTAL AND STATISTICAL CONSIDERATIONS IN EVALUATING THE HARDINESS OF FLOWER BUDS FROM SELECTED HIGHBUSH BLUEBERRY CULTIVARS By Harry Clair Bittenbender A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Horticulture 197A This thesis is dedicated to my advisor, Stan Howell, who has always treated me as his equal, both as a researcher and a man. His door has always been open, his ear always ready to listen. ii and ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I wish to thank the following persons: my committee, Drs. Stan Howell, Bob Andersen, and Don Ramsdell, who have guided my work and constructively criticized my writing; Dr. D. R. Dilley, in whose laboratory I worked; Dr. S. K. Ries, for use of his computer; John Nelson and Ron Bodke, research director and grower-cooperator, and other members and staff of the Michigan Blueberry Growers Association; my parents, Clair and Nina Bittenbender; and finally fellow graduate students and friends who have aided, guided, and provided moral support in my research, C. Dogras, D. Cain, B. Stergios, S. Engstrom, P. Bourland, J. Stuurwold, S. Stackhouse, and V. Wilson. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction Literature Review Preface to Papers Adaptation of the Spearman-Karber Method for Estimating the T50 of Cold Stressed Flower Buds Interactions of Temperature and Moisture Content on Deacclimation of Post Rest Flower Buds of Vaccinium australe Small, Highbush Blueberry Cold Hardiness of Flower Buds from Selected Highbush Blue- berry Cultivars (Vaccinium australe Small) Predictive Environmental and Phenological Components of Flower Bud Hardiness in Highbush Blueberry (Vaccinium australe Small) Appendix iv INTRODUCTION Cold and drought stresses are considered by some to be the most limiting factors of plant distribution on the earth's surface. The effects of cold stress, e.g. winter injury, sun scald, spring frosts, or its interactions with other environmental components such as diseases, nutrition, water status, and mechanical injury, limit horticultural production in the northern half of the United States. In Michigan, peach, cherry, and highbush blueberry farms pro- tected by the moderating effects of Lake Michigan are being forced into the state's interior by land development of the Lake Michigan shoreline. The challenge for the fruit industry now and increasingly in the future will be the solving of the problems of cold hardiness through physio- logical and genetic research. The extent and perhaps the existence of a viable fruit industry in Michigan will depend upon how successful that research effort is. General Hardiness Theory Recent reviews have dealt with the question; what is freezing injury? (“0,58). The following may be viewed as a brief summary of their conclusions. The freezing of inter— cellular water and subsequent concentration of intercellular solutes causes a drop in water vapor pressure outside the cell. This vapor pressure and solute gradient initiates pure water flow from the cell to maintain an equilibrium. The alternative to cellular dehydration, i.e. water loss, is intracellular freezing, which is lethal. The changes that result within the cell are reduced water content with resultant concentration of solutes which can cause precipi— tation of proteins (salting out) if severe enough. Other changes include pH shift and reduced distance between macro— molecules. These can result in death of the cell even though intracellular freezing did not occur. Though the exact freezing resistance mechanism(s) is not known, certain components of hardiness that are respon- sible for induction, maintenance, reduction of hardiness are known. The effects of environmental stimuli, such as photo- period and air temperature are very broad. Documentation of the role of the short day (SD) photoperiod for inducing hardiness has been done with apple (28), Hedra helix (6“), Acer negundo (65), and Cornus stolonifera (66). One theory of hardiness suggests that acclimation occurs in two stages (28,58). The first stage of hardiness is induced by SD, and the second stage by frost. This second stage might be better viewed as a zone, the upper limit being the minimum hardiness level (MHL) of stage two, the lower limit being set by the inherent cold resistance of the species (A8). In peach, flower bud hardiness fluctuates below the MHL in response to air temperature, while the MHL is maintained until rest (chilling hours) is satisfied, regardless of naturally occurring air temperatures (A8). Fluctuating air temperatures have been correlated with peach bud (22,Al,A8, 52) and apple wood (3A) hardiness changes in the winter, during and after rest. Air temperatures are also effective hardiness regulators in other species. Air temperatures, lower than in their natural habitats hardened tropical willows to —50°C (55). Hardiness of Fucus vesiculous L., a brown, marine algae was also correlated with air temperature (A6). Deacclimation of buds and woody tissues under con- trolled, artificially high temperatures (20°C—30°C) has been observed in apple (27), peach and cherry flower buds (52), Forsythia (26) and raspberry (6). Findings from high tem— perature studies are very important in regards to proper handling and storage of materials to be used in hardiness determination work prior to cold stress treatments. Non-cyclic morphological changes that occur as part of flower development are not analogous to the cyclic growth patterns of stems, certain changes appear to render the bud less hardy. Pollen maturity and appearance of pink in the bud indicate rapid transition from hardy to the tender status of peach buds (50). Water content of peach flower buds (29), Rhododendron florets (25,38) and wheat and barley crowns (A2,70) has been shown to be directly related to the killing temperature. Artificially dehydrated Cornus stems increased in hardiness by as much as 12°C from a 15% moisture loss (16). Buds are highly permeable to water, during or after rest (2). Bud scales and stem pith proximal to the bud seem to act as ice sinks during freezing, water flows from the flower primordia to ice masses in the scales (20). Intercellular ice has not been observed in flower primordia except at the killing tem— perature (20,38,39,67). Another method to determine the temperature at which tissue freezes, other than visual observation, is exotherm analysis. This technique allows the experimenter to plot tissue temperature as a function of time. Curves are pro- duced which are deflected by the heat of water crystalliza- tion at points where water in the plant tissues freezes (28, 61). Exotherm analysis of Rhododendron showed that the scales and peduncle have a much higher exotherm temperature than the florets. Florets had only one exotherm, and that was lethal (25). Woody tissues, however, have 2-3 exotherm when living and only one when dead (58,61). These observa- tions appear to underline possible differences between wood and bud hardiness. Hardiness in the Highbush Blueberry The cultivated highbush blueberry formerly Vaccinium corymbosum L. now predominantly'y. australe Small, is grown on scattered sites through the northern half of the United States, Washington, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana, New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Maine. Environmental factors limiting production are length of growing season, high soil pH, low water table, and cold temperatures (21,23). In Michigan most commercial sites are found on a strip of land along Lake Michigan that is approximately A0 km. wide in southwest Michigan and 15 km. wide in the north at Grand Haven. Cold injury and short growing season limits plant— ing farther north. Tests conducted in the northern lower peninsula and in the Upper Peninsula show that 'Rancocas' is the only highbush cultivar able to survive (32). How- ever, 'Rancocas' is no longer planted commercially for other reasons. Cold injury can occur during any part of the cold season, the period of most frequent injury varies among geographic locations. Cold injury occurs in the fall in Minnesota (5,13), in the winter in New York and Arkansas (9,AA), and in spring in Michigan, Massachusetts and Washington (3,30,31,68). The first reported hardiness experiments with the high- bush consisted of growing plants in pots without snow cover to test their ability to survive the winter and to determine whether a cold requirement existed (13). A cold requirement of at least 1,000 hrs. at or below 7°C has been shown to exist for commercial cultivars (1A). The answer to the question; why does the lowbush V. canadense Lam and'V. angustifolium Aiton. (V. lamarckii Camp.) have greater winter survival compared to the highbush seems to be that a small physiological hardiness edge exists in the lowbush plus insulation in the snow cover (5,32). The remaining blueberry hardiness papers fall in three categories; cultivar comparisons via field observations (3, A,9,16,l7,19,30,3l), controlled freeze comparisons of cultivar differences in wood hardiness (12,53,68) and reports of hardier germplasm for breeding (15,18,33,A3,5A, 59). Few researchers have worked on flower bud hardiness in the highbush blueberry (3,A,30,68). To date one study has included controlled freeze comparisons of cultivar differences based upon flower bud hardiness (68). Some data are available that correlate wood and flower bud hardiness from field observations (A). Breeding programs directed at cold hardiness improvements have utilized interspecific crosses with V. australe. These sources of germplasm are, the Ashworth blueberry, V, corymbosum (18,21,A3,59), V. lamarckii, a northern lowbush (21,33,A3) and V, uliginosum L., the bog whortheberry (5A). Present breeding efforts are hampered by the inability to identify hardy seedlings with— out test winters (71). Several methods have been reported for breeding and screening for cold hardiness in tree fruits (37,57,60). A screening program for either flower buds or wood has not been developed for blueberries. Such a development would facilitate the current breeding programs by providing standardized test winters every year. A screening program for cold hardiness of flower buds requires informational inputs from at least three areas. Firstly, background hardiness information should include seasonal acclimation patterns, environmental controls, and phenological charac— ters related to hardiness. Secondly, freezing techniques and viability criteria need to be developed for specific tissue(s) in question. Thirdly, improved statistical methods of handling for hardiness data need to be employed. The relationship of acclimation patterns to environ- mental control has been discussed earlier. The establish— ment of the critical hardiness period for a site reflects knowledge of micro—climate and the cultivar hardiness cycle. Phenological characters that closely correlate with hardi- ness could be useful in selection. Some characters reported in the literature are moisture (2A,29,38,A2,69) and anthocyanin contents (A5,56). Others that should be evaluated include leaf drop, bloom, and harvest dates. These could provide criteria for selecting hardy seedling progeny. The importance of using the proper freezing technique and viability criteria should not be overlooked (62). Tech— niques and criteria that have been developed for use with peach (ll,A9,51) and Rhododendron (2A,29,38) buds may be applicable to the highbush blueberry flower bud. The choice of statistical methods for analysis is especially important when working with hardiness data. Data from controlled freezing tests are normally plotted on a temperature-survival curve, (T-S), with percent tissue survival as a function of tissue temperature. The tempera- ture at which 50% of the cold stressed material is killed (T50), is analogous to the LD of toxiological studies and 50 is the most statistically accurate estimate of any point on the T—S curve (25,37,51). However, some workers have felt that T10 and T90, temperature at 10% and 90% survival respectively, better describe the hardiness of a tissue as they provide a range on the T-S curve (3A,35). Several methods are available that estimate T 's from quantal 50 response data, which is the type data normally collected in flower bud studies (1,7,2A,25). A determination should be made concerning the strengths and weaknesses of these methods for use in a program designed to breed for hardiness improvement (1,7,8,10). 10. 11. Literature Cited Armitage, P. and I. Allen. 1950. Methods of estimating the LD50 in quantal response data. J. of Hygiene A8:298- 322. Badanova, K. A. and B. B. Vartapetyan. 1967. Permea— bility to water of the protoplasm of dormant buds of woody plants. Doklady Akademi Nauk SSSR 176(2):A76-A77. Bailey, J. S. l9A9. Frost injury to blueberries. Fruit Var. and Hort. Dig. A:98. Bittenbender, H. C. 1973. Varietal hardiness data from a blueberry test planting, 1970-73. Unpublished data of the Mich. Blueberry Growers Assoc., Grand Junction, MI A9056. Brierly, W. G. and A. C. Hildreth. 1928. Some studies on the hardiness of certain species of Vaccinium. Plt. Phys. 3:303-308. , R. H. Landon, and R. J. Stadtherr. 1952. The effect of daily alterations between 27° and 39°F on retention or loss of cold resistance in the Lagham raspberry. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 59:173— 17 . Bross, I. 1950. Estimates of the LDSO: A critique. Biometrics 6:Al3-A23. Brown, B. W. 1966. Planning a quantal assay of potency. Biometrics 22:322-329. Cain, J. C. and G. L. Slate. 1953. Blueberries in the home garden. Cornell Ext. Bull. 900. Chang, P. C. and E. A. Johnson. 1972. Some distribu— tion free properties of the asymptotic variance of the Spearman estimator in bioassays. Biometrics 28:882—889. Chaplin, C. E. 19A1. Some artificial freezing tests of peach fruit buds. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 52:121- 129. 12. 13. 1A. 15. 16. l7. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 2A. 25. 26. 10 Constante, J. F. and B. R. Boyce. 1968. Low tempera- ture injury of highbush blueberry shoots at various times of the year. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 93:267— 272. Coville, F. V. 1960. Experiments in blueberry culture. USDA Plt. Ind. Bull. 193. » Darrow, G. M. 19A2. Rest period requirements of blue- berries. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. A1:189-19A. . 1960. Blueberry breeding. Nat. Hort. Mag. 39(1) 15-29. and J. N. Moore. 1962. Blueberry growing. USDA Farmers Bull. 1951. Revised. and . 1966. Blueberry growing. USDA Farmers Bull. 1951. Revised. , L. Whitton, and D. H. Scott. 1960. The Ashworth blueberry as a parent in breeding for hardiness and earliness. Fruit Var. and Hort. Dig. 1A:A3-A6. , R. B. Wilcox, and C. S. Beckwith. 19AA. Blueberry growing. USDA Farmers Bull. 1951. Dorsey, M. J. 193A. Ice formation in the fruit bud of the peach. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 31:22—27. Eck, P. and N. F. Childers. 1966. Blueberry culture. Rutgers Univ. Press, New Brunswick, N.J. 378 pp. Edgerton, L. J. 195A. Fluctuations in the cold hardi— ness of peach flower buds during rest period and dormancy. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 6A:175-180. Finney, D. J. 196A. Statistical methods in biological assay. Second. Ed., Hafner Pub. Co., N.Y., N.Y. . 1971. Probit analysis. 3rd Ed., Cambridge Univ. Press. 333 pp. Graham, R. P. 1971. Cold injury and its determination of selected Rhododendron species. M.S. thesis, Univ. of Minn. Hamilton, David F. 1973. Factors influencing deharden- ing and rehardening of Forsythia x intermedia stems. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 98:221—223. 27. 28. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 3A. 36. 37. 38. 39. A0. 11 Howell, G. S. and C. J. Weiser. 1970. Fluctuations in the cold resistance of apple twigs during spring dehardening. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 95:190—192. and . 1970. The environ- mental control of cold acclimation in apple. Plant Physiol. A5 390- 39”. Johnston, E. S. 1923. Moisture relations of peach buds during winter and spring. Univ. Md. Ag. Exp. Sta. Bull. 255. Johnston, S. 1939. Resistance of certain blueberry varieties to frost. Mich. Ag. Exp. Sta. Quart. Bull. 22:10-12. 1939. The frost control problem with special reference to blueberries. Mich. Ag. Exp. Sta. Quart. Bull. 22(1):3—10. . 1950. Problems associated with cultivated blueberry production in northern Michigan. Mich. Ag. Exp. Sta. Quart. Bull. 33(A):293-298. . 1956. Blueberry breeding in Michigan. Fruit Var. and Hort. Dig. 11:20. Ketchie, D. 0., C. H. Beeman, and A. L. Ballard. 1972. Relationships of electrolytic conductance to cold injury and acclimation in 'Red Delicious' apple trees under natural conditions during four winters. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 98:257—261. Lapins, K. 1962. Artificial freezing as a routine test of cold hardiness of young apple seedlings. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 81:26—3A. Levitt, J. 1956. The hardiness of plants. Academic Press, N.Y., N.Y. 278 pp. Lumis, G. P. 1970. Winter hardiness of evergreen Azalea (Rhododendron cv.) flower buds. Ph.D. thesis, Mich. State Univ. , R. A. Mecklenburg, and K. C. Sink. 1972. Factors influencing winter hardiness of flower buds and stems of evergreen Azaleas. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 97(1):l2A-l27. Mazur, P. 1969. Freezing injury in plants. Ann. Rev. of Plant Physiol. 20:Al9-AA8. A1. A2. A3. AA. A5. A6. A7. A8. A9. 50. 51. 52. 12 Meader, E. M. and M. A. Blake. 19A3. Seasonal trend of fruit bud hardiness in peaches. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. A3z91—98. Metcalf, E. L., C. E. Cress, C. R. 01ein, and E. H. Everson. 1970. Relationship between crown moisture content and killing temperature of three wheat and barley cultivars. Crop Science 10:362—365. Moore, J. N. 1965. Improving highbush blueberry by breeding and selection. Euphytica 1A:39-A8. Moore, J. N. and G. R. Brown. 1971. Susceptibility of blackberry and blueberry cultivars to winters injury. Fruit Var. and Hort. Dig. 25:31-32. Parker, J. 1962. Relation among cold hardiness, water soluble protein, anthocyanins, and free sugar in Hedra helix L. Plant Physiol. 37:809-813. 1960. Seasonal changes in cold hardiness of Fucus vesiculosus. Biol. Bull. 119:A7A—A78. Proebsting, E. L. 1963. The role of air temperatures and bud development in determining hardiness of dormant 'Elberta' peach fruit buds. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 83:259—26A. 1970. Relation of fall and winter temperatures to flower bud behavior and wood hardiness of deciduous fruit trees. HortScience 5(5):A22-A2A. and H. W. Fogle. 1956. An apparatus and method of analysis for studying fruit bud hardi- ness. Proc. Am. Soc. Hort. Sci. 68:6-1A. and H. H. Mills. 1961. Loss of hardiness by peach fruit buds as related to their morphological development during the pre-bloom and bloom period. Proc. Am. Soc. Hort. Sci. 78:10A—110. and T. S. Russell. 1966. A standardized temperature—survival curve for dormant 'Elberta' peach fruit buds. Proc. Am. Soc. Hort. Sci. 89:85-90. and . 1972. A compari- son of hardiness responses in fruit buds of 'Bing' cherry and 'Elberta' peach. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 97:802—806. 53. 5A. 55. 56. 57. 58. 59. 60. 61. 62. 63. 6A. 65. 13 Quamme, H. A., C. Stushnoff, and C. J. Weiser. 1972. Winter hardiness of several blueberry species and cultivars in Minnesota. HortSci. 7(5):500-502. Rousi, A. 1963. Hybridization between Vaccinium uliginosum and cultivated blueberry. Ann. Ag. Fenniae 2:12-18. - Sakai, A. 1970. Freezing resistance in willows from different climates. Ecology 5A(3):A85—A91. Steponkus, P. L. and F. O. Lanphear. 1969. The rela- tionship of anthocyanin content to cold hardiness of Hedera helix. HortSci. A(1):55-56. Stushnoff, C. 1972. Breeding and selection methods for cold hardiness in deciduous fruit crOps. HortSci. 7(1):10-13. Weiser, G. J. 1970. Cold resistance and injury in woody plants. Science 169:1269—1278. Whitton, L. 1960. Breeding for winter hardiness. In Blueberry Research, ed. J. N. Moore and N. F. Childers. pp. 53-55. Rutgers Univ., New Brunswick, N.J. Young, R. and C. J. Hearn. 1972. Screening citrus hybrids for cold hardiness. HortSci. 7(1):1A-18. McLeester, R. C., C. J. Weiser, and T. C. Hall. 1969. Multiple freezing points as a test for viability of plant stems in the determination of frost hardiness. Plant Physiol. AA:37-AA. Stergios, B. G. and G. S. Howell, Jr. 1973. Evalua— tion of viability tests for cold stressed plants. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 98:325—330. Li, P. and C. J. Weiser. 1969. Increasing cold resistance of woody stems by artificial dehydration. Cryobiology 6:270. Steponkus, P. L. and F. 0. Lanphear. 1967. Factors influencing artificial cold acclimation and freezing tests of Hedra helix 'Thorndale'. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 91:735—7A1. Irving, R. M. and F. O. Lanphear. 1968. Regulation of hardiness in Acer negundo. Plant Physiol. A3:9-13. 66. 67. 68. 69. 70. 71. 1A Van Huystee, R. B., C. J. Weiser, and P. H. Li. 1967. Cold acclimation in Cornus stolonifera under natural and controlled photoperiod and temperature. Bot. Gaz. 128:200—205. Chen, P. and P. H. Li. 1973. Viability of apple blossom buds after test freezing. HortScience 8(6): 508-509. Doughty, C. E. 197A. Cold injury and hardiness of blueberries in western Washington. Proc. 197A Annual Meeting North American Blueberry Council. Levitt, J. 19A1. Frost killing and hardiness of plants. Burgess Pub. 00., Minneapolis, Minn. 211 pp. Vasil'yev, I. M. 1961. Wintering in plants. Roger and Rogers, Washington, D. C. 300 pp. Draper, A. D. and D. H. Scott. 197A. Current blueberry breeding work. Proc. 197A Ann. Meeting of North Ameri- can Blueberry Council. pp. 68-7A. PREFACE The following papers are an attempt to answer some of the questions raised in the literature review. Each paper is written in the format of the journal to which it will be sent. The first and third will be submitted to the Journal of the American Society for Horticultural Science. Paper two will be submitted to the Canadian Journal of Plant Science and paper four will be submitted to HortScience. ADAPTATION OF THE SPEARMAN-KARBER METHOD FOR ESTIMATING THE T50 OF COLD STRESSED FLOWER BUDSl H. C. Bittenbender and Gordon S. Howell, Jr. Michigan State University, East Lansing Abstract. Survival data for cold stressed blueberry flower buds are used to demonstrate application of the Spearman—Karber (S-K) method for estimating T Quantal responses are used. 50' The S-K method determines the T for buds stressed 50 over a range of temperatures which produce 0 to 100% bud survival. The general equation can accommodate data containing unequal temperature treatments. A single statistic, S, can be calculated using a second equation which is an unbiased indi- cator of the variance of the temperature—% survival curve around the T50 point. The major advantages of the S—K method are speed, adaptability to computer programming, and accuracy with small sample sizes. Agreement is within 0.5°C of graphically determined T50 values. The value of T50 (temperature at which 50% of the buds are killed) in flower bud hardiness research has been 1Received for publication . Michigan Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article No. 6A75. established (5,10,11,12). To date all the methods used to determine T50 have been graphic. The use of graphic pro- cedures requires several points to determine the sigmoid tolerance distribution called the temperature—survival (T-S) curve, is estimated from the T—S curve. There are T50 several disadvantages to using graphic methods. These are: 1) the need to transform raw quantal (live vs. dead) responses to percent survival or to probits (5,10,1A); 2) the time spent preparing graphs to determine the T50; 3) difficulty of adapting these methods for a computer analysis program; A) difficulty in comparing the shapes of T-S curves without a regression equation. Screening seedlings for flower bud hardiness demands a more rapid method. Ideally a T50 determination method should be rapid if used on a hand calculator, adaptable to computer programming, and if possible, should provide information about the shape of the temperature survival curve at the T50 point in the form of a single statistic. Finney (3) describes such a computational method, the Spearman-Karber (S-K) method for finding LD 50 using quantal response data. Our purpose was to demonstrate the applicability of the S-K method to flower bud hardiness research. Materials and Methods Eighteen 3—node terminal stem pieces were collected from four A-bush replicates (reps) of each of 2 cultivars of highbush blueberry, (Vaccinium australe, Small), planted at Grand Junction, Michigan. The age of the bushes was 8 years. This procedure provided 3 stem pieces for each of 5 cold stress treatments and 1 field control from each rep or a total of 12 pieces (36 buds) per treatment per cultivar. A11 stem pieces in a treatment were placed in stacked foil weighing pans, and the stack inserted into a wide mouth vacuum flask. Each pan represented a cultivar-rep unit con— taining 3 stem pieces. The temperature of a flask was monitored by a 26 gauge thermocouple taped to a stem piece in the center of the stack and attached to a potentiometer (8). The flasks were placed in a pre-cooled freezer (-A0°C) and allowed to cool at a rate of 5-6°C/hr. The flasks were removed at 2.5°C intervals in the predetermined stress range. The wood was allowed to thaw in the flasks at ambient temperature for 12 hr. After thawing, the stacks were removed from the flasks, separated into individual units and placed inAa humid chamber for two days. Tissue browning was used to evaluate viability. Evaluation of bud injury was based upon quantal responses, i.e. buds were dead or alive. Occasionally all ovaries in a bud were not killed. In this case, the number of dead ovaries from all live buds in a given treatment- Ineplicate combination were totaled and divided by 8, the Ineuan number of ovaries per bud. This quotient was rounded ta) ‘the nearest whole number and was added to the number of dead buds counted to give the total number of dead buds for that treatment-replication combination. Spearman- Karber Method Calculation of the T for a cultivar with n buds per 50 treatment and 1 rep. (1) T50 b. 1 n Equation (1) (2) (3) (A) (5) TL + 1/2 d — dei where n = temperature at which 50% of the buds are killed = highest lethal temperature, i.e. temperature below which there are no live buds = temperature interval between treatments = no. of dead buds in the 1th treatment, T1 = no. of buds per treatment 1 assumes that: d is constant; n is constant; the treatment-temperature values are transformed so that T is the smallest positive (1.0) number and 1 TL the largest positive number; the field control may be used to calibrate the T1 to 100%; the treatment—temperature range used includes one treatment, normally T1’ with 100% survival and the last treatment T with 0% survival. If T does not L l have 100% survival and/or TL is not 0% then tem- peratures T0 = 100% and/or TL+l = 0% may be assumed, e.g. T0, T1’ T2 . . . TL’ and TL+1‘ (6) it is possible that a 0% survival will be followed by some living buds. TL, by definition, is the highest temperature (warmest treatment) below which there is no survival. The equation for T if d and n are not constant is: 50 (x. + x.) + (2) T50 = z [(P1+1 — Pi) l 12 l l, bi where P. = —— 1 Hi and x1 is the temperature value of the ith treatment. The variance of the temperature-survival curve through the T50 point can be approximated and thereby compared to other curves using: d2 (3) S = ———————-2 [b.( . - b.)]. n2(n-l) 1 n1 1 In equation 3, S approaches m as the T-S curve become horizontal, and approaches 0 as the T-S curve becomes vertical. The same assumptions apply for equations 1 and 2. A more general S equation, where n is not constant is: P1(1 - Pi) (ni-l) (u) s = d2 z [ Results and Discussion Data are presented here from 2 highbush blueberry cultivars, Jersey and Earliblue, the flower buds were collected and cold stressed on December 17, 1972. From Table 1, 'Jersey', replicate 1 using equation 1, the S—K estimate of T50 is: 2.5(1 + 6 + 6 + 9) = . + . _ T50 13 5 l 25 9 = 8.6A. This transformed T50 value is converted (by adding 1A and multiplying by —1) to -22.6A°C. The remaining T 's are 50 calculated in the same manner from the values in Table l. The T50 estimates for both cultivars calculated using the S—K method can be compared with the T50 estimates calculated using the graphic approach (Fig. 1, Table 2). The 2 T50 values determined (S-K and graphic) for 'Earliblue' rep 1 differ by 1.1°C (Table 2). One possible explanation for this large difference is found in Table 1 where the b0 value for —l5°C (To) is assumed to be 0. The S—K method requires that the stress range include 0 and 100% survival responses or that 0 and 100% survival responses would be observed if the treatment-temperature range were extended 1 d (in this case 2.5°C). The assump— tion that T is 100% was made, though —15°C probably would 0 not have given a 100% survival response in rep 1. The T 50 means and T composites for 'Jersey' differed only 0.2°C 50 between methods (Table 2). Looking at 'Earliblue', the mean T50 values are the same for both methods, and the composites differ by 0.3° (Table 2). By using the T mean, 50 two or more cultivars can be compared because a variance of the T50 can be found whereas there is no variance if T50 composites are compared. Proebsting and Mills (12) discussed the development of a standard T-S curve for dormant Elberta peach flower buds. They noted that the curve tended to be steeper in cold weather and flatter in warm weather. Ketchie and Beeman (9) used the T10 and T90 statistics to describe the differ- ences in T—S curves in apple cultivars. The need for a statistic that describes the slope of the T—S is readily apparent. Using the S-K equation 3, a variance, S, can be derived that is an estimate of the slope of the T-S curve. The S value for rep 1 of 'Jersey' on December 17, 1972 was: S=(2.5)2[<1-8)+(6-3;+<6-3>+<9-o>3 9 ° 8 = 0.A2A. The mean (5 composite) T-S curve for 'Jersey' (ES = 0.183) has a steeper slope than 'Earliblue' (x8 = .213) (Table 2). The relationship between lepe and S is inverse. The cultivar with the flattest slope has the largest S value, and that with the steepest slope has an S value of 0, even though the line is not vertical (Fig. 2). When the T-S curve goes from 100% to 0% survival in one temperature interval, this puts a zero term in equation 3. The S = 0 phenomenon has been observed in rep response data, there- fore we report S for each cultivar as a mean of the rep S values (Table 2). The best way to decrease the likelihood of S = 0 is to decrease the temperature interval, d. Data (not shown) with d = 1°C and n = A resulted in no S = 0 values. The S statistic quantifies the slope of the curve through the T 0 point, thus providing a statistic with 5 which to compare T-S curves of a cultivar grown in different environments or to compare different cultivars. For instance, a breeder would prefer a selection with the lowest possible T to withstand low temperature stresses, and the 50 flattest T—S curve (largest S value) to insure that a per— centage of the buds would survive to produce a crop, if temperatures dropped below the T A seedling with the 50° desired hardiness characteristics could be selected using the S—K equations. It would be unfair to finish this discussion of quantal response analysis without comparing the S—K method with the more famous computational method advocated by Finney (6,7), the iterative approach to the maximum likelihood method with probits. The main disadvantage in using the maximum likeli— hood is that when using a desk calculator one should start with a hand drawn regression line. However, if a computer program is available, the maximum likelihood method is just as rapid as the S—K method. The greater accuracy and precision of the maximum likelihood method has been stressed over the S—K method for large sample size n (6). An analysis with small n, say 2—5, which most breeders would use, has shown the S-K to be superior (1,2). Brown (3) has developed methods to estimate the interval d and sample size n for a S—K LD analysis. 50 Chang and Johnson (A) have shown that the asymptotic variance of the S—K equation can be expressed as the distance between the 5th and 95th percentile of the tolerance distribution. This would be analogous to the and T distance between the T of Ketchie and Beeman (9). 10 90 As the plant breeder working on cold hardiness prob- lems requires measurements of non-discrete characters, the S-K method provides two statistics to which normal statistical methods of analysis can be applied. The Spearman—Karber method can fit into any quantal response hardiness evaluation program in which speed, whether on the desk calculator or computer, and accuracy are important. 10 Literature Cited Armitage, D. and 1. Allen. 1950. Methods of estimating the LD50 in quantal response data. J. Hygiene A8:298- 322. Bross, I. 1950. Estimates of the LD : A critique. 50 Biometrics 6:A13—A23. Brown, B. W. 1966. Planning a quantal assay of potency. Biometrics 22:322—329. Chang, P. C. and E. A. Johnson. 1972. Some distribu- tion free properties of the asymptotic variance of the Spearman estimator in bioassays. Biometrics 28:882- 889. Chaplin, C. E. 19A1. Some artificial freezing tests of peach fruit buds. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 52:121— 129. Finney, D. J. 196A. Statistical methods in biological assay. Second Ed., Hafner Pub. 00., N. Y., N. Y. p. 662. Finney, D. J. 1971. Probit analysis. Third Ed., Cambridge University Press. p. 333. Howell, G. S. and C. J. Weiser. 1970. Fluctuations in the resistance of apple twigs during spring deharden- ing. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 95:190-192. 10. ll. 12. ll Ketchie, D. 0. and C. H. Beeman. 1973. Cold acclima- tion in 'Red Delicious' apple trees under natural conditions during four winters. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. _Sc_i_. 98:257-261. Levitt, J. 1956. The Hardiness of Plants. Academic Press, N. Y., N. Y. p. 278. Proebsting, E. L., Jr. and H. W. Fogle. 1956. An apparatus and method for studying fruit bud hardiness. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 68:6-1A. Proebsting, E. L., Jr. and H. H. Mills. 1966. A standardized temperature-survival curve for dormant Elberta peach fruit buds. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 89:85-90. 12 Table 1. Value of b- (no. of dead buds in a sample of 9) per cold stress treatment—replicate combination for 'Jersey' and 'Earliblue', respectively, high— bush blueberry flower buds collected December 17, 1972. W -15yx -17.5 -20 —22.5 —25 -27.5°c R°p11°at°5 C 1.0Z 3.5 6.0 8.5 11.0 13.5 Jersey 1 0 0 0 1 6 6 9 2 O O O 0 2 9 9 3 O O O 0 O 9 9 A O O O O O 6 9 Composite 0 0 0 l 8 30 36 Earliblue 1 0 0 5 7 9 9 9 2 O O O 3 9 9 3 0 0 0 3 9 9 9 A O O O O 9 9 9 Composite 0 0 5 13 30 36 36 ZTransformed cold stress temperature = I temperature I -1A. yCold stress temperatures in °C. XThe bi values for -15°C are assumed. WField control. 13 Table 2. Comparison of the replicate, mean, and composite T5 values, T 0 variance, S value, and slope of T-g curve thrgugh the T point obtained using the S—K and graphic methds for 'Jersey' and 'Earliblue'. Jersey Earliblue S-K Graph S—K Graph T50 1 -22.6 —2l.7 -l7.9 -l6.8 2 -23.20 —23.A -22.1 -23.1 3 —23.8 —23.8 -20.A -20.6 A —2A.6 -2A.A -2l.3 7 -21.2 Mean -23.5 —23.3 —20.A -20.A Composite —23.A -23.6 -20.A -20.7 Variance .68A 1.158 3.232 3.50A is 0.183 slope 2.5 Is 0.213 slope = 1. 9 Fig. 1. 1A Composite and replicate temperature—survival curve for 'Earliblue' and 'Jersey', respectively, high- bush blueberry flower buds cold stressed on December 17, 1972. u. mmahssosam Cm>mm cpsom pm mmm>fipazo :m.m mo.m :m.m om.m we.e .m.z .m.z s.m.z nmo. omm mH.s- mo.oa- mo.smu :m.mmu oa.mmu om.mfiu mm.ou ooHHHm me.mu mm.mu Ho.mmu mm.mmn oa.mfiu m:.mfiu em.ou osaoaasam Hm.mu mw.ml so.Hmu mm.amu wH.Hmu sm.mfia Ho.sl oo.mu oaaa>oo Hm.:- mo.mu mm.mH- me.om- mm.Hm: mm.HH- mm.o- :m.mn moaxsom mm.sn mo.mn oa.mmu mm.mmu mfl.mmu mm.HH- Em.o- wm.eu osoarosoz mm.su mm.mu Hm.sm- Hm.:mu mm.:mn mm.mfiu o:.o- Hm.:- Hoosm om.su mm.HH- sm.emu se.:m- mp.emn mm.mau mm.hu m~.mu senses COfiPOCSW UCGLU mpmxfinpflso msusflun msumfium ms-maua mpusaumfi mslmmuaa mwummuoa msumuoa msumaum Lo>aoaso .mEummmH wcflpso mmpmo Uopooamm pm mpm>HpH50 appopmsan Endpcwfls w pom mosam> oo B .ma manna 2O .oocoLoMMHo pcmoflmficmflm ozNA .QESHoo cfinpfiz m.ome pom mmmn mw.3| mH.m| oo.HHI oo.mm| mo.mm| Hm.mm| mm.mm| um.mal om.oal m3.~| mm .mompmh 3m.3| Hm.3l mn.oH| mo.mml 3m.3m| mm.>m| mm.mm| oa.om| ms.>| mm.m| ho .mmmpoh mEOHpmooA zoom pm zmmpoh .m.z .m.z .m.z mo.a mH.o 3w3.o mm.o .m.z .m.z .m.z mo. 9mm m©.3l ma.m| .oo.HHI oo.mm| wo.mm| Hm.nml mm.mml sw.mal om.oal m3.>| mompmw om.3| mm.3| 33.HH| oo.mH| 33.mm| Hw.mml wm.mm| 33.mHI mw.m| ma.m| zo>mcosam co>wm Epsom pm npw>fipaso .m.z mm.H mm.m mm.o mm.H 03m.o m.m.z mm.a mm.a mw.H mmo. 9mm Hw.m| mn.m| om.HHI mm.am| Hm.mm| 3m.mm| mm.mm| 33.0w: mo.m| >3.m| poaaam Hm.m| mH.m| m>.w| wm.mH| oo.mm| Hm.3m| mm.3m| mm.ma| Hm.mH| m3.oan osanfiammm oo.m| 33.3: om.HHI mo.omu wo.mml mm.mmu oa.3m| oo.man mo.m| ww.ml moaxpom mo.m| mm.3l mm.mH| mo.mmu mm.mm| om.mml mm.3m| mw.om| 33.0: mm.m| ocwasupoz om.m| mw.m| mm.oH| Hw.om| mm.mm| 3m.mml mm.3m| Hm.mal mm.n: 3m.m| Honsm 3m.3| Hm.3| ms.oH| wo.mm| 3m.3m| mm.wml mm.mm| oa.om| mw.u| mm.ml mompmh coapocSh ocwpw pm mpm>HpH30 3sn3um 3summu3 3snmn3 3sumum 3sn3mna msumanma msnmmuaa msnmuafi msumanoa msummum Lo>fipazo .3wlmnma wcflpso mopmo Umpooamm pm mpm>HpHSo mmpmnosap cmsncwfic w you modam> ome .nH ofint 21 Table 2. T °C at nearest date and field survival after sgging frosts for years 1973 and 197A, for various cultivars. Spring, 1973 Date A—11-73 A-lA-73 temperature min —10°C T50°C Cultivar Field survival % Spring,fl97A 5-6-7A 5-A-7A min —6°C T50°C Field survival % Jersey, GJZ 86 —7. Rubel 100 -7 Northland 8A -7 Berkley ‘AA —A Coville 53 ‘5 Earliblue 53 -5 Elliot 8O -7 Bluehaven, SH 11 -3 Jersey, SH 86 —7 HSD .05 5O 2 50 .85 .22 .51 .21 .A2 .15 .75 .92 .80 99 -A.9A 98 -5.50 9A —5.06 92 -5.00 78 -5.31 98 —5.81 98 min -A°C -A.50 99 min -A°C -A.63 11 N.S.y ZLocations, Grand Junction (GJ), yNo significant difference. South Haven (SH). 22 .mmocflopmn p59 Lozoam wcfipmmp .oNooLm UoHHoppcoox .H u onofiossms .mmocflohmn poo: wcflpmop .ommohm Umaaompcoom .mhsncfi mo condemn mxozmam m.m mmm r-immr-‘I m.m wcfipam .Looooosoooem mnma x 3&cmm mwmpo>< Amm. Haom mung mAmH m.oessso Aoav mmmfi .zoppmm Add. weapon mmmfi .sopnssos ANHV 33mH .sossom Amv zwoma .opcwpmcoo Adv sores: momfi .sossno sz Leona: mmma .saeo Adv nwsesom mama .sofiaom co>m£osam mwooocmm nsfiHHoo mmathm mHHH>oo osfioeashm sa>eofiso osnasosoz poaaam hompoh Hoosm Cowmom Ucm Lozps< .moummmm Umaaoppzoo so woman mmocflopmc 059 Lozoam ho coo: mommmpm Hmpzpmc popmm .Hm>H>LSm UHpHE co woman mpm>fipazo QmSQsmHQ mo mwcfixzwp mmocflwpmm .m manme 23 Table A. T 0°C of flower buds taken from 3 sites on the bash, from the 3 cultivars. Cultivars and Sampling Dates Site on Bush 10—1A—72 11-11-72 12-11-72 A-l2—73 Berkley, north side -6.87 —17.78 —23.5A —6.25 top -6.7A -17.36 —20.69 -6.0A south side -7.36 -l7.08 -21.81 —5.97 HSD .05 N.S.Z N.S. 2.50 N.S. Rancocas, north side -7.22 -18.33 -26.0A -6.A6 top -6.60 -16.94 —2u.58 -7.99 south side —6.53 -18.19 -25.28 -6.7A HSD .05 N.S. 1.18 N.S. N.S. Jersey, north side -7.92 —19.A6 —26.7A -9.58 top —7.6A —l7.01 -2A.93 -9.86 south side —8.A7 -l8.75 —26.A6 -9.79 HSD .05 N.S. 2.35 1.03 N.S. ZNo significant difference. 2A Table 5. Change in S statistic among seasons between years using the average of 8 cultivars. Year seas°n 1972—1973 1973—197A Fall 0.156 0.2u1 Winter 0.238 0.191 Spring 0.258 0.228 HSD .05 0.062 N.S.Z ZNo significant difference. 25 Table 6. Relationship of bud position to winter survival. Values are mean number of live blossoms in late spring (May 25, 1973) after late winter freeze. BUd Positionz Jersey RubelCUltigziiley Earliblue l 2.6 0.0 A.6 l 2 A .7 A.7 2.7 3 6 6.7 6.0 A.l A 7.A 7.2 7.1 5.7 5 9.1 9.6 8.0, 7.A HSD .05 (within a column) = 2.9A Z1 = most distal, 5 = most proximal on five node stem. 26 Table 7. T 's, AET's, and moisture content for several cégtivars on two dates in 197A. Method of Hardiness Determination Moisture con- Cultivar T50°C AET °C AET °C tent of bud . (HZO/dwt %) l—2A—7A Jersey -2A.92 —21.68 —23.36 125.5 Rubel —22.62 -22.l5 -23.29 122.A Berkley —23.05 —17.70 —18.78 135.0 Earliblue —22.98 -19.82 -20.31 132.7 HSD .05 0.89 3.32 2.06 6.A Preparation temp 0OZ 2 2 2 & 20 Ny u u 8 1: Cooling rate °C/hr 2-5 100—150 100-150 A—2A—7A Jersey —A.8l —1A.92 25A.6 Rubel -5.63 -13.67 232.6 Northland —A.88 —13.22 265.8 Berkley -A.AA -1A.85 298.8 Earliblue —5.13 —10.58 29A.5 Elliot -5.75 -1A.02 239.A Bluehaven —A.63 -l3.52 326.2 HSD .05 °C 1.29 N.S. 17.3 N A A A ZTemperature at which buds were prepared for freezing. yNumber of replicates. PREDICTIVE ENVIRONMENTAL AND PHENOLOGICAL COMPONENTS OF FLOWER BUD HARDINESS IN HIGHBUSH BLUEBERRY (VACCINIUM AUSTRALE SMALL)1 H. C. Bittenbender and Gordon S. Howell, Jr.2 Department of Horticulture, Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan A882A Abstract. Environmental and phenological com— ponents of highbush blueberry (Vaccinium australe Small) flower bud hardiness were used to predict hardiness (T ). Multiple regression equations 50 were derived from 1 years data 1973-7A for fall, winter and spring. Factors considered for the equations were air temperature, photoperiod, bud dry weight and moisture content, bark color, dates of leaf drop and pollen formation in the field and time interval of flower forcing. The phenological characters and hardiness were measured for seven commercial cultivars. Estimated T values were 50 within 1°C of measured T50 values. Though the exact freezing resistance mechanism(s) is not known, certain components of hardiness that are respon— sible for induction, maintenance, and reduction of hardiness are known. The effects of environmental stimuli such as lMichigan Agricultural Experiment Station Journal Article No. 2The authors wish to acknowledge the help and cooperation of the growers and staff of the Michigan Blueberry Growers Association, Grand Junction, Michigan. photOperiod and air temperature are very broad. Documenta- tion of the role of the short days (SD) photoperiod for inducing hardiness has been done with apple (9), Hedra helix (2A), Acer negundo (11), and Cornus stolonifera (28). One theory of hardiness suggests that acclimation occurs in two stages (10,27); the first stage is induced by SD, the second by frost. Fluctuating air temperatures have been correlated with peach flower bud (6,16,19,20,22) and apple wood (13) hardiness changes in the winter, during and after rest. Pollen maturity and appearance of pink in the bud are phenological characteristics which indicate rapid transi- tion from a hardy to tender status in peach buds (20). Other factors that may play a role in or correlate with hardiness are moisture content (7,12,15), anthocyanin con— tent (18), date of leaf drop, and date of flowering (1A). An attempt is made to consider all of these factors as they affect acclimation in the fall, hardiness maintenance in winter, and loss of hardiness in the spring in the blue- berry flower bud. These environmental factors and pheno- logical characteristics will be entered into multiple regression analysis to see if they relate to the hardiness status of highbush blueberry flower buds in a predictive manner (17). The cultivars used were part of a two year cultivar and location study (A) including Jersey, Rubel, Northland, Berkley, Earliblue, Elliot, and Bluehaven. Some were located at South Haven, and others at Grand Junction, Michigan. The bushes were at least 10 yrs old and were growing in A A—bush plots. A controlled freeze method was used to cold stress the flower buds which were evaluated for tissue browning of the ovaries. Hardiness was expressed as T50 using the Spearman-Karber equations (2). The values for the components of hardiness were determined at every date from September—April that a freezer run was made. Means for a cultivar were used except for environmental data such as photoperiod or air temperature which were the same for all cultivars at the same location. Components of Hardiness Bud Dry Weight. Flower bud dry weight (bud dwt) is a measure of size and indicator of growth and was found by drying buds for 2A hr at 65°C. Four 2-node terminal stem pieces (8 buds) were taken per plot. The bud dwt is a mean of four plots and measured to the nearest tenth mg. Moisture Content. The bud moisture content was determined using the data from the bud dwt material, fresh weight minus dry weight/dry weight times 100. Moisture content was expressed as the mean percent H2O g/dwt g of four plots (12). S9999. The four stem pieces per plot per cultivar from which the flower buds were taken for bud dwt and moisture content were used to determine anthocyanin content of the bark. The bark was removed with a potato peeler and the anthocyanin extracted with cold acidified methanol for 18 hr at 5°C using 100 ml methanol per gram fresh weight of bark. The extract was filtered through Whatman No. A filter paper and the absorbance read at 520 nm (25). The mean absorbance of four plots was used to compare relative anthocyanin content among cultivars at a given date. Leaf Drop. Date at which a cultivar had drOpped 50% of its leaves was determined by observation. Leaf drop was expressed as the number of days after November 3, 1973 that 50% defoliation occurred. Tetrad Formation. An attempt was made to determine mean date of microsporogenesis, this was not successful. Therefore the date of pollen grain formation was used. The assumption was made that the interval from microsporogenesis to pollen grain formation was the same among cultivars (25). Terminal 2—node stem pieces were collected from April-May, 197A; killed and fixed in FAA (5:90:5), and stained with acetocarmine (A5% acetic acid) using the squash method (23). Interval to Flowering. This was expressed as the mean number of days for 50% of the buds on a branch to open at least one flower. Branches with 7-8 laterals were collected on three dates in the spring of 197A for all cultivars. Buds on the laterals were removed so that there were only 2 distal buds/lateral on each branch. The branches were placed with their butts in water at room temperature. The 50% flowering data is recorded as the time from the start of forcing. The mean flowering data for a cultivar is the mean of three dates tested, since only one branch was used per date per cultivar. Air Temperature. The mean air temperature i.e. max + min divided by 2, of the seventh day prior to sampling for a hardiness determination correlated significantly with hardiness in 1973-7A. Correlations between hardiness and air temperature were made using max, min and mean tempera- tures for the days of the sampling dates to 1A days prior to sampling, and 1 to 1A days running averages for the same time intervals. Use of the seventh day mean resulted in the highest r values, regardless of season. In 1972—73, the best correlation with hardiness was the eighth day prior to sampling. Air temperature was expressed as air temp °C + 100, to make all temperatures positive. Air temperature measurements were taken with a 7 day thermograph, 1.6 m from the ground, at the Grand Junction plots. In South Haven, the thermograph was 8 km from the plots, here the weekly temperature charts were adjusted using the max and min readings from the location of the plots. Photoperiod. The daylength of the eighth day prior to sampling had the highest correlation coefficient when correlated with hardiness in 1973—7A; the ninth day corre- lated the best in 1972—73. Correlations were made between hardiness and daylength using the days from sampling date to 1A days prior to sampling. Daylength was defined as the period from sunrise to sunset. These values were for Lansing, Michigan, approximately 130 km east and 35 km north of Grand Junction (1). Photoperiod X Air Temperature. This product was found simply by multiplying the two values given above for a given date and location. Hardiness Equations The multiple regression equation in which the inde- pendent variables correlate linearly with the dependent variable takes this form: Y = BO + Ble + B2X2 + B3X3 . . . BNXN + E where in our model Y is estimated T50, BO . . . BN are parameters of the model and are specific for each equation, Xl . . . XN are independent variables i.e. bud dwt, moisture content, and E is the residual error. The data were entered by cultivar for each season with the measured T50 and associated components for one cultivar at one date as the unit for regression. The various terms were sequentially deleted from the equation if their signifi- cance was greater than the .10 level (5). A stepwise deletion multiple regression program in CDC 6500 computer at Michigan State University, was used to calculate the best fit equation. The fall model contained bud dwt, moisture content, bark color, mean air temperature, photo- period, temp X photoperiod, and leaf drop date as possible components of the hardiness equation. The winter model included as possible components bud dwt, moisture content, bark color, mean air temperature, photoperiod, and temp X photoperiod. The spring model considered bud dwt, moisture content, bark color, mean air temperature, photoperiod, temp X photoperiod, date of pollen formation, and mean flowering interval. The multiple regression prediction equations are highly significant for each season. All equations have standard errors less than i 1°C (Table l). The equation for fall contained the following significant components: photoperiod, moisture content, air temperature, and temp X photoperiod. The equation for winter was composed of bud dwt, moisture content, and bark color. The spring equation contained bud dwt, moisture content, bark color, and photo- period. The components of each equation give the best fit of the factors measured during each season for estimating T50. One should not view the highly significant F or R2 values to imply cause and effect; these are merely predic- tive equations and cannot prove a causal relationship. The and estimated T close agreement between actual T values 50 50 can be seen for 'Jersey' (Fig. 1), no estimate differs more than 1°C from the measured T Comparison of actual and 50' estimated T50 values for other cultivars could be made by substituting the specific phenological and environmental values for each cultivar into the hardiness equations as was done for Jersey. It is of interest that no environmental parameter enters into the winter equation. This is probably due to lack of change in mean air temperature, photoperiod, and hardiness in the winter. In the spring equation, photo- period is included but not temperature. This should not be taken to imply that temperature is not important in blue- berry dehardening. The dehardening effects of temperature have been noted for many species (8,9,22) including blue- berry (3). Rather, the temperature correlation may be confounded with the increasing daylength so as not to have a significant effect. Another explanation might be to view temperature as the trigger for dehardening, a chain reaction; once the temperature rises to a certain level, dehardening starts and the dehardening rate remains inde- pendent of any temperature changes within a certain range, in such a case temperature would not correlate with hardiness on a per date basis (9). The potential uses for hardiness prediction equations are many. The hardiness for a given cultivar at a given date can be estimated, this is of importance when frost protection systems are used so as to maximize their efficiency. Site selection is another area of possible implementation, the environmental measurements coupled with phenological characters may be able to predict whether a cultivar can survive at particular site. The screening procedure for hardiness can benefit by use of a predictive equation. After several years of data have been gathered or by using 10-20 year average weather cycles for tempera— ture and rainfall for a site (28), it may be possible to have parameters for air temperature, photoperiod, temp X photoperiod that do not change from year to year. At this point a breeder could screen measuring only phenological characters and freeze only to determine small differences among cultivars. 10 Literature Cited Anonymous. 1965. Sunrise and sunset at Lansing, Michigan. NO. 11A8, Nautical Almanac Office, USN Observatory, Washington, D. C. Bittenbender, H. C. and Gordon S. Howell, Jr. 197A. Adaptation of the Spearman-Karber method for esti- mating the T of cold stressed flower buds. J. 50 Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 99(2):187-190. and . Inter- actions of temperature and moisture content of deacclimation of post rest flower buds of Vaccinium australe Small, highbush blueberry. Can. J. Plant Sci. (In Press). and . Cold hardiness of flower buds from selected highbush blue- berry cultivars (Vaccinium australe Small). J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. (In Press). Draper, N. R. and H. Smith. 1966. Applied regression analysis. Wiley & Sons, New York, New York. A07 pp. Edgerton, L. J. 195A. Fluctuations in the cold hardi- ness Of peach flower buds during rest period and dormancy. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 6A:175-180. Graham, R. P. 1971. Cold injury and its determination on selected Rhododendron species. M.S. thesis, Univ. of Minn. 10. 11. 12. 13. 1A. 15. 16. 11 Hamilton, David F. 1973. Factors influencing deharden- ing and rehardening of Forsythia X intermedia stems. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 98:221-223. Howell, G. S. and C. J. Weiser.. 1970. Fluctuations in the cold resistance of apple twigs during spring dehardening. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 95:190-192. and . 1970. The environ— mental control of cold acclimation in apple. Plant Physiol. A5:390—39A. Irving, R. M. and F. O. Lanphear. 1968. Regulation of hardiness in Acer negundo. Plant Physiol. A3:9—13. Johnston, E. S. 1923. Moisture relations of peach buds during winter and Spring. Univ. Md. Ag. Exp. Sta. Bull. 255. Ketchie, D. 0., C. H. Beeman, and A. L. Bullard. 1972. Relationship of electrolytic conductance to cold injury and acclimation in fruit trees. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 97:A03—A06. Layne, R. E. C. 1967. Relation Of bloom date and blossom temperature to frost injury and fruit set in apricot. Fruit Varieties and Hort. Digest 21:2. Lumis, G. P. 1970. Winter hardiness of evergreen Azalea (Rhododendron cv.) flower buds. Ph.D. thesis, Mich. State Univ. Meader, E. M. and M. A. Blake. 19A3. Seasonal trend of fruit bud hardiness in peaches. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. A8:91—98. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 12 Metcalf, E. L., C. E. Cress, C. R. Olein and E. H. Everson. 1970. Relationship between crown moisture content and killing temperature of three wheat and barley cultivars. Crop Sci. 10:362-365. Parker, J. 1962. Relation among cold hardiness, water, soluble protein, anthocyanins and free sugars in Hedra helix L. Plant Physiol. 37:809-813. Proebsting, E. L. 1963. The role of air temperatures and bud development in determining hardiness of dor— mant 'Elberta' peach fruit buds. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 83:259—269. 1970. Relation of fall and winter temperatures to flower bud behavior and wood hardi- ness of deciduous fruit trees. HortScience 5(5):A22- A2A. and H. H. Mills. 1961. Loss of hardi— ness by peach fruit buds as related to their morpho- logical development during the pre—bloom and bloom period. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 78:10A—110. and . 1972. A comparison of hardiness responses in fruit buds of 'Bing' cherry and 'Elberta' peach. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 97:802- 806. Sass, John E. 1958. Botanical Microtechnique. 3rd Ed. Iowa State Univ. Press, Ames, Iowa. 228 pp. 2A. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 13 Steponkus, P. L. and F. O. Lanphear. 1967. Factors influencing artificial cold acclimation and freezing tests of Hedra helix 'Thorndale'. Proc. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci. 91:735-7A1. and . 1969. The rela— tionship of anthocyanin content to cold hardiness of Hedra helix L. HortScience A(1):55-56. Stushnoff, C. and B. F. Palser. 1969. Embryology of five Vaccinium taxa including diploid, tetraploid, and hexaploid species or cultivars. Phytomorphology 19(A):312—331. Van Den Brink, C. 1973. A close look at the weather for the Horticulture industry. HortScience 8(3):27l. Van Huystee, R. B., C. J. Weiser and P. H. Li. 1967. Cold acclimation in Cornus stolonifera under natural and controlled photoperiod and temperature. Bot. Gaz. 128:200-205. Weiser, C. J. 1970. Cold resistance and injury in woody plants. Science 169:1269-1278. 1A Table 1. Hardiness (T O) prediction equations square of multiple corgelation coefficients (Ré), standard error of the estimate (SE) and F test for regres- sion for selected highbush blueberry cultivars, 1973-7A. FALL T50Z = —A5.233 + 12.358 (photoperiod) + 0.0323 (HZO/dwt %) + 0.A695 (x air temp) = 0.0528 (air temp X photo- period) R2 = 0.9939 SE = 0.61000 Fy = 778*** WINTER T50 = 60.551 + 19.900 (bud dwt) + 0.0892 (HZO/dwt %) + 8.961 (color) R2 = 0.9029 SE = 0.5580C F = 3u*** SPRING T50 = -2.530 + 9.556 (bud dwt) + 0.0097 (H2O/dwt %) + 10.232 (color) + 6.850 (photoperiod) R2 = 0.98A0 SE = 0.929°C F = 291*** Z is expressed as T50 + 100, a coding used to make all T 0 t8mperatures positive. yAsterisks denote level of significance at the P = 0.001 level. 15 Fig. 1. Fall, winter, spring hardiness (T 0°C) of 'Jersey', 5 1973-197A and estimated TSO'S from hardiness equations. O ou.~(!;mu l 41.53 083‘» APPENDIX Fortran A program written for CD0 6500 to compute T50, mean T50, variance of T50, error of the T50 estimate for a cultivar or any treatment using the Spearman-Kérber equations. The specific parame- 'S' statistic, and standard ters of the input format statement are: 6 cols. date code 2 cols. treatment or cultivar code 1 col. replicate number 2 cols. number of observations (N) per rep A cols. transformed lethal temperature, TL 3 cols. temperature interval value (d) 2 cols. field control value, number of dead buds in the control in that rep 2 cols. number of b. values i.e. number of cold stress treatments rom T to T 15 3-cols. b values for eacA cold stress treatment start- ing with T (or T if necessary) to T A cols. transformation fa8tor, absolute value of the warmest cold treatment minus 1 Sample data card for Jersey rep 1, Table 1 S—K paper Data starts in column 1 Data ends in column 79 121772 01 1 09 13.5 2.5 0 06 000 000 001 006 006 009 1A.0 The potential of this program is: 1-9 reps 99 labels for cultivars, treatments 0-9.9°F or C temperature interval, d 1-15 temperature treatments 1-999 observations per rep, N A card is placed before each cultivar or treatment set of data cards, which indicates the number of reps in that cultivar or treatment. A blank card follows the data deck, this terminates the program. Program SK (Input, Output, Tape 60 = Input, Tape 61 = Output) Dimension A (2A,A), Sum (15), Sum 2 (A), T50 (A), (99) (1) 9H Jersey 9H Rubel 9H Northland 9H Berkley 9H Coville 9H Earliblue 9H 9H Bluehaven 9H Jersey SH 9H Ran South 9H Ran Top 9H Ran North 9H Berk South 9H Berk Top 9H Berk North 9H Jer South 9H Jer Top 9H Jer North 9H Jersey C 9H Jer 2/Dry Jer 2/Wet 9H Jer 20/Dry 9H Ear C 9H Ear 2/Dry 9H Ear 2/Wet 9H Ear 20/Dry 9H 2/C 9H 2/H2O 9H 2/Dry 9H 13/C 9H l3/H2O 9H l3/Dry 9H 25/C 9H 25/H2O (A9 - 9H 25/Dry Print A0 A0 Format (*1*,* Date Cultivar T50 1 T50 2 T50 3 T50 A Con 1Trol Mean T50 T50 Variance S T508em*) C Read Number of Reps 10 Read 1, K 1 Format (11) If (K.EQ.1H) Go to 51 Read 2, ((A(I,J), I=1,2A), J=1,K) OONChU‘I-EUUNHCDNO‘xU'Itwml—‘HOKOCDNmUl-Il‘wNP-‘Ovvvvv AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA vvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvvv ttbtttttwwwwwwwwNMHF—‘HF—‘F—‘l—‘l—‘i—‘f—‘l—‘KDWKW“) I II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II II \0 TI: ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ 2 Format (F6.0,1X,F2.0, 1X, F1.0, 1X, F2.0, 1X, FA.0, 1X, F3.0, 1X, 1F2.0, 1X,F2.0,15F3.0,1X, FA.1) 0 Calculate for S TS=0.0 DO 12 J-1,K TN =A(A,J) SBI =0.0 DO A I=9,23 L=I-8 Sum(L) = A(I,J) SBI=SBI +Sum(L) * (TN-Sum(L)) A Continue XK=K S = TS / XK C Calculations for Per cent Field Survival TTN=0.0 l7 TFC=0.0 DO 18 J=1,K TFC= TFC + A(7,J) TTN=TTN+A(A,J) 18 Continue FC=(TFC/TTN)*100.0 C Calculations for T50 DO 5 I=9,NBI Sum2(J)=0.0 NBI=A(8,J) +8.0 DO 5 I=9,NBI Sum2(J)= Sum2(J) +A(I,J) 5 Continue DO 7 J=1,K T50(J)=0.0 T50(J)=A(5,J) + A(6,J) /2.0-(A(6,J) *Sum2(J))/ A(A,J) C T50 Transformed to Real Temperatures T50(J)=(T50(J) +A(2A,J))*(-l.0) 7 Continue If (K.EQ.A) Go to 25 DO 2A J=K,A T50(J+1)=0.0 2A Continue 25 SQSum=0.0 SumT50=0.0 DO 27 J=1,K SumT50= SumT50 + T50(J) SQSum = SQSum + (T50(J)**2) 27 Continue XK= K VarT50 =(SQSum ~(SumT50**2) /XK)/(XK —1.0) EMT50=SQRT(VART50 / XK) XT50 =SumT50 / XK M= A(2,l) Print 50 , A(1,1), N(M), T50, FC, XT50, VART50, S, EMT50 50 Format(*0*,F8.0, 1X, A10, F6.1, 1X, F6.1, 1X, F6.1, 1X, F6.1, 6X, 1F5.1, 5X,F6.2, AX, F8.3, 5X, F6.3,3X,F7.3) Go to 10 51 Continue End A sample output, Jersey Table 1, SK paper DATE CULTIVAR T501 T502 T503 T50A CONTROL MEAN T50 121772 JERSEY -22.6 —23.0 —23.8 —2A.6 100 —23.5 T50 VARIANCE S T5OSEM .68A 0.183 .Al3 1.. A A I'll A A III" A | A I II III A A | A II ll" 5| 5‘ ll A III" III II A 3058 0 Li I“ 3 HUMAN