5‘48 METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES APPLIED TO THE ANALYSIS OF VARlANCE Thasis for the Degrévfif M. A. ICHIGAN STATE COLLEGE Miriam M. Geboo i940 ', LIBRARY , Michigan State , University A ; MSU LIBRARIES RETURNING MATERIALS: Place in book drop to remove this checkout from your record. FINES wiII be charged if book is returned after the date stamped below. THE METHOD OF LEAST SQUARES APPLIED TO THE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE. by Miriam Martha Geboo A THESIS Submitted to the Graduate School of Michigan State College of Agriculture and Applied Science in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Department of Mathematics 1940 I wish to express my apprecia- tion to Dr. William Dowell Baten whose suggestions and guidance made this thesis possible. he C? {S C) c) Q: Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter Chapter 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. Table of Contents Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Notation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Randomized Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . Single Criterion of Classification . . . Multiple Criteria of Classification . . Latin Square . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Analysis of Covariance-Randomized Blocks Analysis of Covariance-Latin Square . . Incomplete Blocks . . . . . . . . . . . Unbalanced Incomplete Blocks . . . . . . Youden's Square . . . . . . . . . . . . Lattice Squares . . . . . . . . . . . . Factorial Design . . . . . . . . . . . . Confounded (3x2x2) . . . . . . . . . . . Values . . . Estimation of Missing Plot Bibliographyoooo0000000000 page [0 12 16 23 32 36 42 48 53 57 66 73 77 Introduction One of the newest branches of the science of statistics is that of the analysis of variance. This was first intro- duced by Dr. R. A. Fisher‘s-)in 1923, and he and many other statisticians have been working constantly since that time to perfect it. It is a means for segregating from groups of data being compared the variability arising from known sources, leaving an estimate of the experimental error. It can be utilized in testing significance between means of the groups of data. The analysis of variance is applicable to large or small samples and to a large number of eXperimental designs. In an analysis of covariance it is also possible to analyze two or more associated variables. It is the purpose of this thesis to illustrate with various experimental designs how the experimental error used in the analysis of variance is derived. To do this the method of least squares, as suggested by F. Yates(r¥)and illustrated by him = (a. -'§)+ (37,, ~37“) + (a). 3 I. where (1) d=yu ”I": -yti+ y . and ‘5‘ is the mean of block 3 and y}. is the mean J I. of treatment 1. Squaring and summing, 6. zcyi. - if: nzo', - if). r235... 4% 23a)" «2]. 5 J J c ‘v (j 2 " -" " -" 2 "‘ -‘ d + 8y"; YHYtL y)+ ZOE; .v)() +2267, -3?)(a) . The fourth term of the right hand side of the equa- tion can be shown to equal zero thus: is -'§r’)<‘§ -'y'>-.-. 2:5: (‘5; -§)-'§Z<§r’ rm] 5; t. J 532.: *1 a ‘a := O , since g6? - y) =- O, and since the mean of the yt,’s I. l. is equal to ‘§ . The fitth and sixth terms equal zero likewise. Therefore we have ,. b g 0 n T d . § >1 - [(21.33 _. Inf) _ (2:14." ‘ x. ”2) -(ZYHK" - Y...‘)] = (Total Sum of Squares) - (8.8. for Treatments) K - (8.8. for Varieties) - (8.8. for Blocks) - [8.8. for Interaction TxV] «- [8.8. for Interaction TxBJ - [3.8. for Interaction VxB] =(1) - (11) - (111) - (iV) - (V) - (v1) - (v11) . and D. ofF.=(nrs-1)- (n-l)- (r-l)- (s-l) - (n - l)(r - l) - (n - l)(s - l) - (r - l)(s - l) . Thus we have derived the eXperimental error used in the analysis of variance of an experiment with three classifications. The resulting analysis of variance is given in Table 6. 22. Table 6. Source of Degrees of Sums of Squares Variation Freedom Total N - 1' (1) Treatments n - 1 (ii) Varieties r - 1 (iii) Blocks s - 1 (iv) I Interactions . TxV (n - l)(r - l) (v) TxB (n - l)(s - 1) (vi) VxB, (r - l)(s - 1) (vii) Error(TxVxB) (N-D(n-l)-(r-l) (i)-(ii)-(iii) -(s-l)*(n-1)(r-1) -(1V)-(V)-(v1) ~(n—l)(s-1) -(vii) ~(r-1)(8-1) *Nanrs. 23. Chapter 4. Latin Square An experimental design which is frequently used is the Latin Square. If n varieties (or treatments) are to be tested, a plot of land is divided into a checkerboard arrangement of n rows and n columns, and the n vari- eties are distributed at random in the plots, but with the double restriction that each variety appear once and only once in each column and each row.“ If V,, V1, V3, V¥,‘%r are five Varieties, we can form a Latin Square as shown in Table 7. Table 7. Columns ‘< ‘4 '< ~ “<12“. R fill V V 3 a If n is the number of rows, columns, and varieties, the fundamental identity for the Latin Square, written in terms of summations used in calculations, is * Rider, P. R., g3 Introduction to Modern Statistical ' Methods, pp. 166- -9. 24. 2. (1) Z 1 y ‘ Y; Y 1 Y4." x. f y" - ... = . .. - 0.. + - a 85“ ”k n" n n1 n 7 a. a Y. Y... 1 + 'k - 2' +-Z:d. , n n where d is an eXpression similar to that for randomized blocks and yijk is the yield of the variety k which appears in the i th row and the 3 th column. Let vk be a factor concerning variety k which affects yields , ri be a factor concerning row i which affects yields , c5 be a factor concerning column 3 which affects yields , and m be a constant, where gvkzo,§ri=o,§:ci=o. We will assume that the v's, r's, and c's and m are coefficients in the following linear equation: (2) yuvw=V|G'+ooo+van+r'H.+ooo ran+ 0"]. + ...-renJ,‘ + m K + e“,W , where G... H“, JW and K are variables which take on the following values for yijk: G» :1, whenw: k; G“: O, whenw fk; “=1,whenu=i;Hu=-.O,whenufi; V V H J = 1, when v =.J; J = 0, when V i J; K =.1 , for all u, v, and w. 25. Then (2) reduces to (3) = Vk+r£+ 03+ m *e‘ssk o yijk The expression of the sum of squares of the residual errors is 3:281 = {(3,in ' Vk " CS "' rt --m) o ijk The partial derivatives result in the following equations: 3F 0 - - - O (4') W a Y"" n Vk n m - O , (5) 3F ' Y - - n c- - n m = o , 3c) ' '1' J bF O . C o - - . (6) .5;- : Y‘H‘ nr. nm-O, a: I ”P s u o O (7) g;— Directly from equation (7) it is seen that (8) YO... '- m = 3 y o n.- Substituting this value for m into (4), (5), and (6) and solving for vk, c5, and r; respectively, we get Yank - (9) vk =- n - y D Y‘s. _ (10) cj = n " Y o and I. _ (11) r- 7- u. " Y o l n 26. Now substituting these values into (3) and simpli- fying we have the following equation for predicting y on the average: . Y. _ (12’5’:1~=‘§"'*7{T’L*‘fi*""2y ‘ The standard error of estimate is given by _, W (13) S - fl. Of F. ' where 2. ' (22’ - ‘11: )'(>;‘ - 1'5) n. Y. 3 x " 2,1 x 1 - Z ... - no. 2 0!. . Doc ’ i n n1 3 n n1 which is essentially the same as (l) is we let a W .1: Ed 0 Thus we have derived the eXperimental error used in the analysis of variance for a Latin Square design. 27. Chapter 5. Analysis of Covariance It is the purpose of the analysis of variance to re- move from the experimental error all variability except that due to the chance variation within the factor being tested. This is done sometimes through an attempt to hold other factors constant, or through replications. Sometimes, however, a factor enters into the experiment which can not be held constant. For instance, in an experiment which deals with the yields of a certain variety under various treatments, there may be a variation in the yields caused by unequal stands in addition to the variation caused by the treatments. Also, in an experiment regarding the weights of animals fed different diets, original weight may cause variation which should be considered. Fisher“y and Goulden** have discussed problems of this nature and analyzed them by the analysis of covariance. When an experiment is analyzed by the analysis of covariance, two separate measurements x and y are made on the items. Now, in the first case above, x would refer to stand and y would refer to the yields, while in the second case x would refer to initial weight * Fisher, R. A., Statistical Methods for Research Workers, Sixth Edition, pp. 275-90. **'Goulden, C. H., Methods 9; Statistical Analysis, pp. 247’60 . 28. and y the final weight. Randomized Blocks Let us consider a randomized block experiment in which measurements were made both on stand and yield. n be the number of treatments applied and her of replications. Table 8 illustrates such an experiment. L be the num- et x : stand and y.= yield. Table 8. Treatments Repli- cation T . T1 . . T n Totals R. H x“ o 0 HI X” y” y.“ y,” You R2. |L x21 n1. x.1 ygl yzz yhl— Y0; R? W‘ x1? '5? Xor yd? ylr Totals " " Y‘O Y2.- Let ti be a factor concerning treatment 1 which .r. J m be a constant; affects yields; be a factor concerning replication 3 affects yields; which 29. and b be the regression coefficient between stand and yield; where Zt"=0 , 21‘. :0 O t 3 ’ Then the equation similar to (1.8) is (l) yijatt+r3+m+bxij +ei". The eXpression for the sum of squares of the residual errors is z )2. Setting the partial derivatives equal to zero and simplifying, we have, (2) .13.; Y- -rti-rm-bX-‘.=O; at; " 3F . - - - . . (3) 3-5;.- 9 Y.) n I“ n m b X‘5 I O , (4) 3.3.; x -Nm-bX. :O,whereN=nr; ‘Bm. °° - (5) .921. - Zx‘..y.. - Zt-x- - Zr-x. - mX" - be --" = o. Ob ’ is ‘5 ‘5 a ‘ L' 3 i a; ij «.1 By straight forward algebraic manipulation on equa- tions (2), (3), (4), and (5), one can arrive at a solution for b ; it is (5) b .3 Sum of products due to error , Sum of x squares due to error where 30. (7) Sum of products due to error = ———><2 —-——-—>( —--—-—=> > -( 31;") - This b is used for adjusting y for stand and has the and (8) Sum of x squares due to error = (21* - 3-‘-‘-'7-) (L ~12 N covariance due to treatment and replication removed from it. It is possible to solve for t , r , and m in terms of b ; by doing so we get and Y ‘_ X _ (io)r=__'§_-y - __'_5_-x , n n and (11) m = ‘Y - b X ; where i: is the general mean of the y's and ‘2 is the general mean of the x's. Substituting (9), (10), and (11) in (l), we get (If. Yo' -) Xi. X4 — (12) Y: ——+—--Y -b(—§—+T-X)+bxij+eii . The standard error of estimate is given by w a (13) S ’ VD. of F. ’ 31. w = Sum of y squares due to error - b (sum of products due to error) where (14) Sum of y squares due to error :: 1 L :3." Zr. Y- 1 - .’ II - .. D.OfF.=N-l-(n-l)-(r-l)-l. and Hence we have derived the experimental error which gives rise to the analysis of covariance suggested by * Fisher. *’ Fisher, R. A., Statistical M_§hggg for Research Workers, Sixth Edition, pp. 275-90. 32. Chapter 6. Analysis of Covariance Latin Square Let us now consider an experiment to be analyzed by the analysis of covariance which is set up in an n by n Latin Square. Let x 2 stand and y a yield. Table 9 illustrates such an experiment. Table 9. Columns I ROW C, C" o o C“ P T013818 R T, Tz . . Th e x,” x“, . . ng X”. y,” yuz ' ' yam Yd. R T" T, . . TM 2 x12» xu/ ° - Kan...) X4. 5'12» ya: I ‘ ' yum-z) Y. a . T1 T3 0 e " xlni xina - . ylhi yawn ' ' ' x x . . ' Totals "‘ 1" Yd. Yt“ 0 o The sum of the stand for plots with treatment k will be denoted.tw' Iflk. denotes the yield of the y‘jk plot in the i'th column and the 3 th row, where treatment k was applied. Let c; be a factor concerning column 1 which affects 33. yields; rj be a factor concerning row 3 which affects yields; t“ be a factor concerning treatment k which affects yields; m be a constant; and b be the regression coefficient between stand and yield; where Zci , Zr. I Then we have the following linear equation , EZtk' are all equal to zero. (1) yo." :3 c, + rj + t“ +m +b xi,“ +eijk . The expression for the sum of the squares of the residual errors is F =Zea': 3’2"]qu - c,- 8- rJ- - tk- m - b x5501. Setting the partial derivatives equal to zero and simplifying, we have (2)_%.E._ Yi. -nzci-nm-bx,‘“=0 ‘ 0 H O ‘0 BF .. 9-. .. .. . (3) T;— Y°S~ nr“ nm bx.” 3F . ‘“ - 12 - .“ . (4) btk , T's n tic n m 5'1““: 0 . (5) 33-: Y... ~n‘m-bX... =- 0: am ‘ (6) ..gg— ; té‘xy - nizcixi” - ninixg‘. - ngtkrf,‘k 34. Again as in the preceding chapter, by a straight for- ward algebraic manipulation on equations (2), (3), (4), (5), and (6), we can arrive at a solution for b-; it is I (7) b ==.Sum of_products duerto error , Sum of squares of x s due to error where (8) Sum of products due to error 3 (Zn - 1.1;...) - (gxir-lfliu _ L9) -(§x.3,x.3; - xmim) (Exit, 53-3., - xmx...) "“1fi“"‘ "'THS"‘ "fi““' n and (9) Sum of squares of x's for error = (23*- x'tt)? (5—— - X5) n N n N We can solve equations (2), (3), (4), and (5) for CI' r3 tK, and m respectively in terms of b as fol- lows: . X. x. _ x . _ (11) r; =( 'i' - I) - b( 'i' - X) n (12) tk:( .0 35. and (13) m=Y-b3'<;. - 4 Equation (1) becomes, after substitution of values given in (7): (10’s (11): (12), 3nd (13) 3 Yi' Y'S' E‘ _ (14) yak: n' + n +—-5n - ‘21 Xi.“ X.3_ if, _ -bn +11 ‘,_fi.5,u2x +bxisk+eilk. The standard error of estimate is given by (15) 3 “VD. of, F. where w .1: Sum of squares of y's for error e b (Sum of products for error) , where Sum of products for error is given by (8) and the Sum of squares of y's for error is the same as (9) except that x is replaced by y ; and D.‘ofF. =N-l-3(n-l)-l. Hence we have derived the experimental error which gives rise to the analysis of variance for a Latin Square eXperiment. 36. Chapter 7. Incomplete Blocks If the number of varieties being tested is very large, it often becomes impossible to use the complete randomized block layout because of the amount of field space needed. (I4) (10) Yates and Weiss and Cox have develOped and extended methods by which a large number of varieties can be tested economically. Two designs which are useful in this respect are: l. Incomplete blocks, balanced or unbalanced, and 2. Lattice Squares or Quasi-Latin Squares. The requirement of the balanced incomplete block de- sign is that every variety occur with every other variety in the same number of blocks._ Since the number of replica- tions and block size must be kept within practical limits, it is possible to arrange such designs for only specific numbers of varieties. If n is the number of varieties, s is the number of varieties in each block, r is the number of replications of each variety, N or nr or sp is the total number of items, and w is the number of times two varieties appear together, it is seen that certain relationships must exist between these numbers, since they must all be integers. Two of these relationships are l. (n - l) w = r (s - l) , 2. p=uo For any value of n and s , there do exist values of w and r which do satisfy the first relation, but it is desirable to keep the number of blocks (p) to a small 37. number or all benefit of such a design is lost. There are simple devices for deriving the combinations (’4) which are possible, yet which retain balance. Yates w‘ ) gives some of these arrangements. Structure of balanced incomplete block arrangements is dis- (fl¥), illlllllllllllllll|( ), cussed thoroughly by Yates and binoulden.. Let us consider in connection with the derivation of the experimental error used in the analysis of variande, the special case in which n 2 7 and s = 3 . By carrying through this problem, yet keeping in mind the general case, we will arrive at a result which will be applicable to any eXperiment set up in balanced incomplete blocks. Let the blocks be set up as indicated in Table 10. Table 10. Blocks ‘Total B I Y” Y“ 3,, E, B 2. ya. yea-z 5'52. E). Ba 3713 3'53 37.; 73-3 34- y1¥ y4+ ye$ Eu 5: er ya" 3’7: gr Ba 5'36 3751. y“ E‘ B"! 5’37 374-7 5'77 E7 In this figure, is the yield of the i th variety in 5'55 * Goulden, C. H., Methods 9; Statistical Analysis, pp. 175-202. 38. 3 th block. '8; denotes the sum of the yields of the plots in block 3 . ’7; denotes the sum of the yields of variety i . This is a balanced incomplete block design because variety one occurs in a block with each other variety once and only once. Similarly for each other variety. Let v; be a factor concerning variety 1 which affects yields ,- b' be a factor concerning block 3 which affects I yields , and m be a constant , Xvi-=0; zbj-so. l. J. where We will assume that the v's, b's, and m are coeffi- cients in the following linear equation: (1) ,yUV = VIE, ‘i’ 000 +VnEn * b'F‘ + 000 1’ bPFP + m G 4- 80V, where E", F,, and G are variables which take on the fol- lowing values for ya} : Eval, whenu=i;E‘=0, whenufi; F's-.1, whenVI-J ;Fv=0,whenv#i; G :1, for all u and v. Then (1) reduces to (2) y£j=vi+bj+m+e£3. 1 2.. Let F: Ze =29)“ -v-L-b.)-m) . 39. Setting the partial derivatives equal to zero and simplifying, we have : Va (3)_3.F.'_.° V2-rv.-Zb3-rm=0; av,’ '2 t B.‘ (40%; EJ'ZV1'5b3'5m=O3 i (5) 35; YH-Nmzo. Directly from equation (5) we see that (6) m=§o Now considering the special case indicated above, where n = 7 and s = 3 , and writing out the equations indicated by (3) and (4) , we have (a) V,-rv,-b‘-bz-b3-y=0, (b) Va-rvz-b,-b,,-b5.-§'=o, (c) Vz-rva-b,-b6-bq-y7:0, (d) V,-rv,-~bz-b,,-b.,-§'=o, (e) V5-rv5-b2-by-b‘-y=o, (f) V6‘rv5’b3'b4'bc'§=0. (s) Yq-rV1-b3-bg-b7-yzo, (h) -B',-v,-va-v:-sb,-y=0, (i) I5,-v,-v4-v;-sb,_-y=0, (3)33-V,-v‘-v1-sb-§=o, (k) Sa-vz-v -v6-sb4_-y‘=0, (l) 'B'r-va-vf-vq-sbs-yso, (m) §‘-V3-v5.-v6-sb-y'=o, (n) S7-v -v*-v1-sb1-§=O. 40. These, together with (5) are called the normal equations. Subtracting [(h) + (i) + (3)] / s from (a) and simplifying (making use of the fact that 2"; = O) we 6 have VI Z'B“ or I -Z§ -v'hs-r+1)=o. Solving this equation for v, we have I (7) v 1: B V, 'JZ:B3 3 ' rs - r +'l in general this becomes (8) V'=Q;NE::%)).‘ where (9) Qt 3 8 Vi “:E- o I Substituting the value for vc given in (8) into (4) and solving for bj , we have C” ' i 10 be 3 3 . ( " 1 - ‘I' Y“ . ( ) J E— Ns?s - I) ZQ" N Equation (2) now becomes i5 ( L _( )Bj ..- o n‘1 - 11-1 . ,. . (11) yu" s +Q‘N (ed-l) Ns(s-l Qt+e"5 If an equation is of the form (1) , the standard error of estimate is given by 41. ‘12) s =VBT£T where ' Y "' Z'BVL y 1 = 1-- 00 _ l _ oo _ ( -1) 1 W (Z)! T) (CL—5— T) (Ns?s -1 Q‘)’ and D.0fF.=N-l-(p-l)-,-(n-l). Thus we have derived the experimental error used in the analysis of variance of an incomplete block design. This gives rise to the analysis of variance given by Yates(’4). The analysis of variance is illustrated in Table 110 Table 11 Source of Variation Degrees of ‘ Sums of Squares Freedom Total N 1 Zy" Y"- (1) ‘ t {Sf Y0” Between Blocks p - l s - 'fi” (11) Between Varieties n - 1 n " 1 ZQ-zuii) Nels-l) L Error ° N-p-n+1 (1) - (11) - (111) This method of balanced incomplete blocks works very well in the case where the number of varieties is equal to at or sz'- 5 r 1 where s is the number of items in a block. Goulden' discusses in great detail these two Spe- cial cases. a Goulden, C.H., Method 2; Statistical Analysis, 3» 175* 202. 42. Chapter 8. Unbalanced Incomplete Blocks The problem of incomplete blocks becomes much more complicated if the blocks are not balanced; that is, if each variety does not appear with every other one the same number of times. Goulden“ discusses a simple casetof this kind in which the number of varieties is equal to pz'. If the varieties are arranged in the form of a square, the blocks may be set up by first considering the rows as. blocks and then the columns as blocks. For instance, con- sider the following nine varieties arranged in the form of a square: ll l2 13 21 22 23 31 32 33 The blocks which may be set up as indicated above are: Group X Group I 11 12 13 11 21 31 ' 21 22 23 12 22 32 31 32 33 13 23 33 These blocks are unbalanced because variety 21 ap- pears only with 11 , 31 , 22 , and 23 . ~It does not ap- pear with the other four varieties. Similarly for each other variety. The groups may be replicated as many times as needed to make the desired number of replications. * Goulden, C. H., Methods of Statistical Analysis,pp.l79- 185. 43. Let p be the number of items in each block, then pa equals the number of varieties, 2 np equals the num- ber of blocks, 2 equals the number of groups, and n is the number of times each group is replicated. Then we can set up summary tables in which each xcf and yis is the sum of n yields of variety 13 in the n replications of group X and group Y reSpectively, and Group X Total Group Y Total B'K X” x|1 XI} XI. B“! y” Y1‘ Ya. Yo' BM x9.) x 11 xat xl- B2. yn. 3'12. 3(3ij Y1?- Bsx 1:" 3‘12. x." X8- B3 y|3 ya: 3’12. Y-s Group Total X.. Group Total ‘Y.. Variety Summary Tu Tu. Tu T2» T 12. T13 Tu T 32. T33 The grand total X . + Y” = T It is to be noted in this case that the first sub- script of the variety indicates the block in the X-group to which it belongs, and the second subscript indicates the block in the Y-group. Let v€j be the factor concerning variety 13 which affects yields; b. and b1 be factors concerning blocks ix and 1x 5% 3y respectively which affect yields; 44. s and s be factors concerning group X and group Y reSpectively which affect yields; m be a constant ; Where {3&5 = o ; gb‘o‘+iZ'bJ%-.c; sx+ 8}: o . Instead of one equation as in previous chapters, we will use the following two for the yields of the X group and Y group reapectively: x“ =yi-‘ *bix +s‘+m+ eijx , ya}. = V13 +b3'1 +s3+m *6“: . (1) For this experiment the sum of the squares of the residual errors is: 2. ‘2. (2) F=Ze =§(x;£ -v€i -bix-8,"m) , 1 +2 ,. - .. a b. n a . aw“ v” ‘3 a} m) Setting the partial derivatives equal to zero and simplifying, we have: (3).-o-?,—f}i-; T‘s-2nv‘5~nch-nb’3-2nmzo; 31“ Bin (4) 5«6.5:»; XhunZvi‘i-npr‘---npsa npmzo; B. 3F 0 . .. ,. .- b. c- .- = ' (5) .55.;- a Y.) n V‘s hp ’3 np 83 Hp :11 O , (6) Z: ; X..-np"s,-np”m=0; I (7) ‘BF ; Y,. - n p1 s} - n p1m =.O ; 45. (8)—1L3T ~2np"m=0. am .0 Solving (8) for m , recalling that N = 2 n pl, we get (9) m = M . where M is the general mean. Substituting this value for m in (6) and (7) and solving for s, and 3‘ reapectively, we get (10) 3‘: 1‘15; n P and (11) B} fi‘m o By straight forward algebraic manipulation the values of the other factors are determined to be: X‘.o-Yio-2np8 (12) bus __ ; n p ' Y . - X . u 2 n p B (13) b5 8 .5 .5 1 3 . 1 n p (14) v” = p T‘s - (Xi..- - Xi.) O (Y's - X03) 6 2 n p M . ‘1 2 n p By substituting the values of equations (9), (10), .(ll), (12), (13), and (14) in equations (1), we get the following equations for predicting the yields x-- ‘1 and yij on the average: 46. pT“ +(X-,-Y',)-(Y.- ~X.°) X. (15) xi. = ‘3 " ‘ ‘ 3 - -:-i +M ’ _ , J 2 n p up and (16) 3"“ = p T43 - (X... - Yi') + (Y '3 - X4.) - Y’; +M o ‘3 2 n p up The standard error of estimate is given by <17) 8 2 W D. 0f Fe , where w - Total Sum of Squares - Sum of Squares due to varieties - Sum of Squares due to blocks , where ( 1 )1 a. z. X..'.+ Y” (18) Total Sum of Squares 32x” 4- Eyes . ; N and (19) Sum of Squares due to Varieties = I. 2. 1. To. (X' - Y. ) (X ’ - Y 0) z t! * Z 0 " + z 0’ .. 2n 2 hp 2 up 1. 1. 1. (X.. C Y..) (in. +ZY°S ) 2 n p" np and (20) Sum of Squares due to Blocks ;_- 1 2": *ZYNL T.. 1 np I; and 1 2 D.ofF.=2np-(2np-l)-(p -l)-l. Thus we have derived the eXperimental error used in 47. the analysis of variance of an unbalanced incomplete block design. Equation (17) gives rise to the analysis of var- a iance which Goulden discusses. * Goulden, C. H., Methods 2; Statistical Analysis, p. 180. 48. Chapter 9. Youden's Square W. J. Youden(’7) has modified the method of incom- plete blocks in order to eliminate variations due to replications from the error term. Consider the arrange- ment in Table 12 in which there are seven treatments (A through G) and three plots in each block, the blocks being the vertical rows: Table 12. A B C D E F G D E F G A B C B C D E F G A One will notice that there are three replications of each treatment. The modification which Youden introduced was that of placing the seven blocks side by side and arrang- ing the treatments within the blocks in such a way that each of the horizontal rows contains a complete replication of the treatments. Table 12 shows this. Youden also sug- gests that this can be done for various combinations of treatments and blocks, when certain restrictions are placed on the number of treatments and replications. It will be noted that the number of incompleter(vertical) blocks is equal to the number of treatments (n); that the number of replications (s) of each treatment is equal to the number of items in each block; that n and s are connected by the relation n-1=S(S-l); 49. that ns =N is the total number of items . Let yijk. be the yield of a certain plot, where the plot appears in row i , block 3 , and treatment k . Let r; be the factor concerning row i which affects yields , b. ’ be the factor concerning block 3 which affects yields , tk be the factor concerning treatment k which af- fects yields , and m be a constant , where Zri20, ij=0,and it‘so. i 'J- n We will assume that the r's , b's , t's , and m are coefficients in the following linear equation: (1) vasgnirc 4- {$13,125 +¥Fkth +G m «mum, where D“, EV, E, and G are variables which take on the following values for Ytju‘ Du=1, whenu:i;D,,-O,whenu¢i E,:1,whenvcj;E,=0,whenv¢1 ‘0 F~=1,whenw=k;F.sO, whenwfk G =1, for all u, v, and w . Then (1) reduces to (2) yiik 3 r‘- + bi fit“?e£i|‘e The sum of the squares of the residual errors is Elven by ‘ 1 F329 ‘Z‘ngg ’ri 'bE-tk) ° 50. Setting the partial derivatives with reSpect to the various constants equal to zero, we have OF . (3) W L" +< 1 u H u s B u C) I m 0' b I ¢+ K I m E ll 0 éF . “Wwfi'_y F (5) "Pa-f: 00K H I m d- x I O’ h- I m E II C) .0 Y “NIH-‘30. <5> €1- B. In (4’) Zit denotes the sum of the factors con- cerning the treatments appearing in block 3 . In (5) T ‘ifbi denotes the sum of the factors concerning the blocks in which treatment k appears. Directly from (6) we see that (7) m =.§ 0 Substituting this value of m in (3) and solving for r, , we get (8) I": :1” -§ 0 Using a method similar to that used to find v; and b3 in Chapter 7, we find B. -Yd.-:Q -- (9) b, - ...7?______ y , ‘3 s(s -s+1) and (10) th" k , 51. TX Qk=8 YOOK " 21.3. o If we substitute the values of equations (7) through (10) into equation (2), we get the following equations for predicting y. Lik on the average.. B: ~ Y. _ Y. Q Q (11) Fisk-r. ‘" -y+_'_3;.- Z1); +__{__F_ - 8 s(s -s +1) 8 -s+1 The standard error of estimate is (12’ S =Vsrl§fi7 where ‘1 1 90. 1 7- ' = O. - —_ - Q zy‘l“ N s(sl- add); k s N and D.ofF. =N-l-(s-l)-2(n-l). Thus we have derived the experimental error used in the analysis of variance of an experiment set up in a Youden's Square. The analysis of variance which results from this value of the experimental error is given in Table 13. 52. Table 13. Source of Degrees of Sums of Squares Variation ,Freedom 1 Total sn - 1 a. m1 zyc‘ik T (1) 2. Zr; 1 '- Between 3 - 1 .1____'.'._ - _.'__'..1_ (ii) Rows n N Between n - 1 Y};.L Y...L Blocks 3 - N. (iii) Between. _ n - l 2.. Treatments 1 23;“ (iv) s(s -s l) “ Error sn-l-(s-l)-2(n-l) (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)‘ 53. Chapter 10. Lattice Squares The second design for a large number of varieties that was suggested previously is that of Lattice Squares. For this design to be used it is necessary that the number of varieties being tested be a perfect square. In Table 14 an example of such a design is given for 25 varieties. Table 14. 12345 110141822 18151724 6 7 8 9 10 2O 24 3 ”7 11 19 21 3 10 12> 1112131415 23261519 25291118 1617181920 12162548 13202246 21 22 23 24 25 9 13 17 21 5 7 14 16 23 5 In this lattice square arrangement every pair of varieties occurs together once only in either a row or a column of any one of the squares. Also, every variety occurs with every other variety once in one column and one row from each square. Complete discussion of this example (IO) ( has been presented by Weiss and Cox Other examples (’2) have been discussed by Fisher and Yates ), and Yates i. Let yiikf' be the yield of variety 3 in square i, column k and row p . Let nz' be the number of varie- ties and t the number of squares. Let s; be a factor concerning square 1 which affects yields, v3 be a factor concerning variety 3 which affects yields, \— 54. c be a factor concerning column k which affects yields; r be a factor concerning row p which affects yields; m be a constant; £2" ll 0 ; 2:v5 = O ;‘Z:ch_=.0 szizr,,=.0 . J Si. The yield y. ijp is given by (l) y s11- v3+ cx+rp+m+e£3KP, 0. 3 «pap and the eXpression for the sum of the squares of the re- sidual errors is z (2) F=Ze =Z(yi'3kp'9i."’3 -ck-r’-m) . Setting the partial derivatives of F with reapect to the various factors equal to zero, and simplifying, gives the following equations: ”"2527331... ”“15; “n”!!! =0 3 V3 V3 OF ' . d . C n - ‘ ' (4) 79? ' Y.1°' t V) ch if? t: m — 0 , Ck aF‘ ’ . Q a u — (51-36:. Y...“ mstk 2v3 nck nm_O , R .F . ff (6) 75;, IN? as“ v -an-nm-0 , (7) .1flE. Y - t n1 m :10 ; 0’ B 55- where 55,, is the factor concerning the square in which column k occurs; similarly, s is the factor concerning i P the square in which row p occurs. In equation (4) Z:cK denotes the sum of the columns in which variety 3 V; occurs, ander denotes the sum of the rows in which variety J occurs. Inequation (5) :v’. denotes the sum of the varieties occurring in column k . In equation (6) E'vi denotes the sum of the varieties occurring in row Solving equation (7) for m results in (8) m =:§' . Substituting this value in (3) and solving for so : < ) Y" ‘ 9 s-:: " - y . L n‘ We can now solve for the other factors in a manner very similar to that in Chapter 7; when we do so, we get Q; +tn t); (10) viant-2t4-l 1 Q5+nt§. _] a Y..k. ’ n Bik_- nt-2t-r1 n y ' (11) OK: 310, ..nt'y' ~.. 12 ,1 .. . - _1 - "‘ . ( ) r9 n[Y'°'P n81. \nt-2t+l) ny] where 56. -The standard error of estimate is given by _. W (13) s - M where w 8 Total Sum of Squares - Sum of Squares due to squares - SS due to columns in squares - SS due to rows in squares - SS due to varieties ,5 where 9. Y (14) Total SS uzy1_ .N... , Y I Y ‘ (15) SS for squares 2 c h" .- .. .. ’ 11‘ N (16) 83 for Columns in Squares — 22.1.” I...) -(ELL: :___) K - n n N 11%) N (17) SS for Rows in Squares = I. ZY ‘ 'Yoeoo‘ (ZYI.°” Yea-0‘) ...—2.1!... - ...—....— “ ..L...___.__. -___.__.._ 9 n N n‘ N and (I: )‘ 1 HQ- 'r - 1 —- o - —————’-— . (18) SS for Varieties ._ n(nt-2t+l Z(nQ,’) n" 1, and D.ofF.=n"t-(t-l)-2(nt-t)-(nz-l)-l. Thus we have derived the eXperimental error used in the analysis of variance. This gives rise to the analysis of variance for a Lattice Square which has been discussed by Weiss and Cox(’o). M 57. Chapter 11. Factorial Design Let us consider an eXperiment in which we have three kinds of fertilizer, a', b', c'. We may apply the ferti- lizers one at a time, two at a time, or all together, so that instead of three treatments we have eight, which may be designated by a'b'c', a'b', a'c', b'c', a', b', c', (l) where (1) denotes the absence of each fertilizer and is used as a control "treatment". In the field set-up we would have blocks of land with eight plots in each, the treatments scattered at random in each block, with the one condition that each block contain all the treatments. The analysis of variance could be considered as in a randomized block experiment with eight treatments; how- ever, the effect A of treatment a' can be found by compar- ing the yields of all plots containing a', with or without any other ingredient, with the yields of plots not con- taining a' at all. A comparison may also be made of the effect of a' in the presence of b' with that of a‘ in the absence of b'. This effect we call AB, the simple inter- action between a' and b'. Thus we can make seven differ- ent comparisons: A, B, C, AC, AB, BC, ABC. The first three of these we shall call the main effects and the remainder we shall call the interactions. 58. We might also consider that the three fertilizers are applied in two ways -- some fertilizer and no fertili- zer; we will call these a", b,‘, c,’ and a0}, bo', co‘ respectively where the subscript 1 indicates the pre- sence of the fertilizer and the subscript 0 indicates its absence. For simplicity we will let yijk: be the yield of the plot in which a;, bj, c,‘ were applied; the subscripts of the y indicate the levels on which the a, b, c, were applied respectively. We will let the number of replica- tions be four, and the fourth subscript on the y will indicate the number of the replication. Let r ,be the factor concerning block p which affects P yields ; a6, a, be factors concerning main effect A which affect yields ; b‘, b, be factors concerning main effect B which affect yields ; co, c, be factors concerning main effect C which affects yields ; (ab) be the factor concerning simple interaction AB which affects yields ; (ac) be the factor concerning simple interaction AC which affects yields ; (be) be the factor concerning simple interaction BC which affects yields ; 59. 1 (abc) be the factor concerning double interaction ABC which affects yields ; J and m be a constant. We will assume that these factors are coefficients in the following linear equation: (1) yww“: aaDo + a'D' 4- boEo + b,El + °oFa + c,F, -. ~4-—. ~1-q-———. vv—w- . . ..a' . ..ana - .“ " - ". w" a. ‘ a 1 __ +(ab)G + (ac)H + (bc)I + (abc)J + Zb,L,. P +mK +euvw1’ where D“, Ev, F”, G, H, I, J, L, and K are variables which take on the following values for yt'fkf: D, a 1, when u :1 ; D u 0 elsewhere ; k = 1, when v =3 ; E, = O elsewhere ; = 1, when w = k ; F... = 0 elsewhere ; :1, when uv a 11 or 00; :e-l, when uv = 10 or 01 3 EV F” G G H 8 1, when uw :11 or 00; H =-1, when uw =10 or 01 ; I :1, when vw s 11 or 00 ; I -'-'-1, when vw = 10 Or 01 ; J = 1, when uvw slll, 100, 010, 001 ; J =-1, when uvw =-llO, 101, 011, 000 3 K = l, for all values of u , v , and w 3 L} w 1, when 2 s p ; Lia. O elsewhere . The values of the variables G, H, I, and J were determined as follows: - 60. Goulden* states that "algebraically, all the treat- ments can be represented as follows: N =(N' - Na)(K, +- K,)(P, + 1;) . p =(N,+N,)(x, . mm», -r,) , K,)(P, +Po) . K,)(P, -P,) . KO)(P, * Po) 9 K,)(P, ‘ Pa) . N x? x K =(N, - N°)(K, - K0)(P' -Po) " . K ::(N, + NO)(K, ... N X P =(N. - NO)(KI No)“: P x K = (N, + N°)(K, N x K =:.(N| 41v""ori._ f. '. where N, P, and K are the three treatments correSpond- ing to the A, B, and C in our experiment. 1 in the subscript of the N, P, and K denotes presence of the fertilizer, while 0 denotes absence. We shall make use of N x P to determine the values for G . This is the interaction which corresponds to A3,. the factor concerning which is the coefficient in (1) . In the notation of our experiment N x P is written: A B =(a' - a°)(b, - b,)(c‘¢- °o) . Expanding this we have : A B : a,b‘c,-+ a'b'c - a,boc, - a’boc - aoblc, O O - aob,c° +-a.b°c,i+ a‘boco . The coefficients of‘the terms containing a,b, and aoho are ~tl while the coefficients of the terms containing a,b° and aab, are - 1 . These are the two values of G. H and I are determined similarly. We shall make use of N x P x K to determine the values of J . In our eXperiment this relation is written: * Goulden, C. H., Methods of Statistical Analysis, p.161. ov-. w"! INI 61. ABC :(a‘ - ao)(b' - b°)(c‘- co) . Expanding this we have : A B C = a'b'c‘ - a'blco - a'boc‘ + a.b.c° - aob‘c‘ + aoblco+ aob¢c, - a°b°c° . The coefficients of terms a,b,c,, a,b,c°, aob’co, and aoboc, are +1 while the coefficients of terms a’bico, a’boc', a‘b'c’, and aoboco are - 1 . These are the two values of J . Using the values of these variables (1) reduces to the following equations, where each equation represents four equations since p takes on values from one to four: (2) yam" = a0 +- be «r c, + (ab) 4- (ac) + (be) - (abc) +m +rP +e°°°P; (3) yo =. a +b +c + (ab) - (ac) - (be) 1» (abc) cup 0 o I +m +r, e.."; (4) y"’P a an + b. «ca - (ab) +|(ac) - (be) + (abc) +m er, + 90109 ; (5) your - an «I» b, + c, - (ab) - (ac) «I» (be) - (abc) +m +ro+ soup ; (6) ym" - a. + be +00 - (ab) - (ac) + (bc) 4- (abc) +m+r' +e‘”p; (7) y'°'P - a. + ba «0- cI - (ab) 4- (ac) - (bc) - (abc) +m +r', +em-‘P; (8) y”OP - a' + b, +'c° 4-(ab) - (ac) - (bc) - (abc) +m 4-r +e P nap ’ 62. (9) ylup = a'q- b. + c. + (ab) +(ac) +(bc) + (abc) +m+rP+GHIP 0 fl _ 2. Now let F- Ze 1351:? Taking the partial derivatives and simplifying we have 3F . , _ _ _. . (10) 7A.: , Yb” 16 a‘. 16 m .. 0 , BF . . _ ... m _. . (11) W , Y.’.. 16 b, 16 I- O 3 OF . .. - .. (12) .55... , Y...“ 16 cK 16 m .. O , K OF 0 u. .- - ° (13) Or, , Y”)? 8 rP 8 m .. O , (14) 31‘" ° (AB) - 32 (ab)= o . a(ab)' where (AB) 8 Yoga. + Yool.+ Yuo- +Ym. " You). ' Yon. " Yugo. " 1161-3 (15) {go—7: (AC) - 32 (ac) = o . where (AC) = Yo,” 4-ng 4' Ynal. ‘* YIN. " You. -Y9II0 ..Y (16) 3%; (BC) - 32 (be) = o . ‘1' I00- Ho. ' where (BC)=Y°°°.+YOH,+Y 4'! mywe]. I00, III. - YOla. - Yml. " Yno. 3 DP . . .. where (ABC) = Yool. +1010. 4- Ym.’ + Y”). " Y 00.. " Yon. " YIsl. - YIla. 3 I I :3 L :i'i . 1.1.... .‘ 63. ~32m30. (18) —%—%—3 I From (18) we have immediately (19) 131:? . . Solving the remaining equations for the factors de- sired, making use of (19), we have : Y‘... "" a; (20) a; =_l_6_:. y ; ‘. and 3.3.. .- (21) bi '3 T " y 3 i and g Yo-K- _ L.» (22) OK: Tg— " y 9 and YOQOP " (23) r? = T - y 9 and (24) (ab) = 93131; and (25) (ac): Mil ; 32 and (26) (be): 1%; and 2 (27) (abc) c 1%539-1 '; The standard error of estimate is given by (28’ S 51/573233? ' D.ofF.=31-(4-1)-(8-1); and - :6; ""- 5;?)me - 1%?(AB)- lgglhm) O... ’ Y ” Y 1 :(Zy ---'s:e' )(§—e—“" -—--'s‘2‘) {(Zyi...‘ Inn‘) (ZY.:.." Yooc.‘) “"‘6‘1 "" ' 32 + J""1'6' '- " "3'2"" 1. is 32 32 32 - 13.0.).(30) - .L__1A30(Asc)- 3' Y 32 32 ,, (ABC) ] 32 Total Sum of Squares - Sum of Squares due to Blocks - Sum of Squares due to Treatments , where 65. Sum of Squares due to Treatments : SS due to A + SS due to B + SS due to C + SS due to AB +-SS due to AC +-SS due to BC 4 SS due to ABC :88 due to main effects 4-SS due to simple interactions 4-SS due to double interactions . Thus we have derived the experimental error which gives rise to the analysis of variance of a factorial experiment. This analysis of variance has been discussed , by Yates(’5), Fisher , and Rider** . * Fisher, R. A.. The Design 2: Experiments . ** Rider, P. R., An Introduction to Modern statistical Methods, pp. 1813-1 2). 66. Chapter 12. Confounded (3x2x2) Confounding is a method whereby the necessity of including every treatment combination of a factorial ex- periment in each block is avoided. This has been dis- cussed in some detail by Yates(A’). By use of this method block size may be kept small even though the number of treatment combinations is large. The combinations of treatments are divided into two (or more) groups so that the contrasts between the differ- é ent groups represent some interaction of higher order which is not important in the experiment. In the analysis of variance, information concerning the interaction which is "confounded" is lost but this loss is compensated for in greater accuracy in other comparisons. When an inter- action is confounded in only several of the replications, we say that it is partially confounded. Let us consider a 3 x 2 x 2 emperiment in which treatment a is applied in three amounts: 2, 1, 0; treatments b and c in two amounts: 1, O . This ex- periment is one which has been discussed by Yates“. In- teractions BC and ABC are partially confounded with block differences. Table 14 shows the design of this experiment. * Iates, F., The Desi n and Analxgis g; Factorial EXper- iments, pp. 55- l. 67. Table 14. 'Blocks . i" '1', j‘fi', n, ”n“ Tfi'gfl' you ycan yooo yaw yooo y 00/ yoga you you you: you yalo ywo ylo: yin! yloo y/oo y/O/ “ ym yllo yua y”, y”, 3’1“) i F yto. y“, y.‘wo 5'10! 5’20] yLOQ ya." yalo Lyn: yaw yzlo ya” F Yyyw denotes the yield of a plot on which a was applied on the u level, b on the v level, c on the w level. ‘ I We will let the block totals be [Ia]. [15] , etc., and [Lib] - [1,] =3' , {[115] - [11.3} :51 . {[IIIJ - [IIIJ .2 33. This is the notation which is used by Yates. Let the factors which affect yield be for main effect A: a0, a“ at; B: b0, b, 3 Czc c O, I ; simple interaction AB: (3b).: (8.13),, (ab): 3 AC: (ac)‘, (8.0),, (so),- 3 BC: (bc) ; 68. double interaction ABC: (abc)o, (abc)’, (abc)z; I replications: I II“, IIb’ III“! IIIb 3 c’, b! constant: m ; where the sum of the factors concerning treatments equals zero and the sum of the factors concerning blocks or replications equals zero. In the factors concerning the simple interaction AB, (ab); denotes a contrast between ai in the presence of b and a; in the basence of b . Similarly for the factors concerning AC and ABC. We have the following linear equation for y : (l) yum” a ga‘D‘w- gb'E' d- E'CVF‘V + §(ab)mGM + Z“(ac)‘Hu+'. '(bc) J + ;(abc)KKu + IIIbL” +- m P + em”, . where the variables take on the following values for yéjk :- Du¢1,whenu=i;D“=O,whenufi; Evsl,whenv=j ;EV=O,whenv¢j; F.=l,whenWsk;F'«-o,whenw#k; G. :1 , when uv=il , -l,when uv =10 , Oelsewhere; H” 3.1 , when uw = 11 , -l,when uw 3.10 , O elsewhere ; J = l , when vw =»ll and CO , -1 when vw =.Ol and lo ; 69. K“ s l , when uvw s 100 and ill, --1 when uvw = 110 and 101, O elsewhere ; I. . l , when y appears in I... O elsewhere ; (a similarly for L“, La... LIV Lk' Lg”; P = 1 everywhere. These values for the variables were determined in a manner similar to that in the chapter on factorial deSign. Using these values for the variables we can get an expression for yijk in general; this is quite complicated to write down in the general case. However, in a special case, say for y,” appearing in block II“, we would hage (2) y = a'+ b' + cl +(ab)t + (ac)I + (bc) +(abc). «b II‘+ m + smut.) Again we will let F equal the sum of squares of the residual errors. Setting the partial derivatives of F with reapect to the various factors equal to zero and simrifzy plifying, we have the following equations: (3) 2;: Yin-12aa-l2mzo; (4) b5: 1,5.-18b5-18m:0; (5) 0., : I”: - 18 c‘.-r 18 m = O; (6) (ab); : Y“. - Y8”, - 12 (ab) = 0 3 (7) (ac); : Y,” - Y,',, - 12 (ac) ‘5 O; (8) (be) : (BM-36 (be)+26,+251+2s,=0. "' you: " you " ylol " yua " yaw " 35.10; - ~ m 44-1.1... I, , 70. (9) (abc), 3 (ABC)o - 12 (bc) l2 (abc)° - 2 g. '0' 2 51+ 2 53 = O , where (ABC)O = y”.+y°” - you - You 3 (io) (abc), : (ABC), - 12 (be) 12 (abc), + 2 g, - 2 2,3 2 2, =0. where (ABC), nyna’ y,,, “if/,0 'Y/ol 3 (11) (abc)a .: (ABC); - 12 (be) 12 (abc)L-v-2 g, ‘3‘" .I‘. +2gz-2 P 0‘2 0 I 0 where (ABC)a.'-’yaao+ygu ’Y‘,."yaol 5 r".- =:.. (12) I‘: 2 (be) - 2 (abc)° + 2 (abc). +2 (abc)z * 6 In.“ [101 :03 (13) It : - 2 (be) +2 (abc)o - 2 (abc)I - 2 (abc); ... 5'11; - [1.] =0 3 (14) II : 2 (be) + 2 (abc). - 2 (abc)‘ «l- 2 (abc): +6 IIa~[IIa_]=O; (15) 115: - 2 (be) - 2 (abc)o 4-2 (abc), - 2 (abc): + 6 11b - [11.] :0; (16) III‘: 2 (bc)+ 2 (abc)o +2 (abc), - 2 (abc)1 +6 III,— [IIIJ = o; h) (17) III : ~ 2 (be) - 5 (abc)° - 2 (abc), 4-2 (abc): +6 IIIb- [1115] =0; (18) m :Y.”-35m::0, from which we see directly that (19) m='y' . Knowing this value of m we can solve for the un- known factors in equations (3) to (8); the results are 71. Y‘... _ yo. 0 ‘- b g ‘ ' y 3 (ab); 12 i./ ' Yiko 12 (&C)£ 9 we may solve for (be) by making the following combination of equations: (12) - (13) * (14) - (15) + (16) - (l7) 1'3 (8) . making use of the values of g., 52’ g’.. Hence we get: (21) _ BC - 1 (be) .1—1 56(8'+61+86) . By a similar process we get: (22) (abc), 5321305 .52. + 6,323,) - gen). (2}) (abc), Egums), +552, - a, +23)-5 gum) . (24) (abc)2 gem), .2134 s, + e, - s3) - gum) . We will solve for the factors concerning replications in terms of (be), (abc)o, (abc)“ and (abc)7_ : I . (23). 142%:1-é6m)- (abc)o+ (abc), 4- (abc),] , V .“-._ ' ‘ ." ‘_'__A__.IL l'u"! '_‘__-_._z'u 14.-5.: __ :_ 72. LI.] 15 "-E__ II‘:.C_6_I- jibe) 4- (abc)° - (abc)| i- (abc)z], =[IIB__6_1-% IIIt =T - 3 be) +(abe)o + (abc) l - (abc)1] , [IIIJ I IIIb = T- -’-(bc) - (abc)o - (abc). +(abe)1 . The standard error of estimate is given by w (24) S g W/ID: of F. ' where ‘ -%Ebc) + (abe)° - (abc). - (abc)1] IIb be) -(abc)o +-(abc)| - (abc)1], EY; y ‘ = T013 1 SS - Block SS - H _ no a 12 T3 235.3} Y...‘ {Ynez Y”) ”FTP’T) '(J'Ia— " 3 ) _(Z(Y‘-h ' Yio-f') - (Zach - 15.0 )1) l2 12 D - bC t . 2(8130 )t. o 28% 60 and Do or F0 :36 " 5 " 11". This is essentially the analysis of variance described a by Yates, and thus we have derived the experimental error for a confounded eXperiment. * 'Yates, F., The Design and Analysis 9: Factorial EXperi- ments, pp. 58-60. "T§vfi.7fi... l.‘~' ..." 1* I 73. Chapter 1}. Estimation of Missing Plot Values Sometimes when an experiment is completed, it is seen that a value of the yield in one of the plots is missing. As it would be quite wasteful to discard the entire experiment for this reason, it is better to make an estimation of the value and carry out the analysis of variance using this new value. However, when such an estimation is made, the degrees of freedom for the total must be decreased by the number of estimated values. Allen and‘Wishart ( I) and Baten (1’) have derived formulas for estimating plot values. I am going to show a way, different from theirs, to arrive at the same for- mulas, and to suggest how it can be extended to any rea- sonable number of missing plots. Let us considers randomized block eXperiment (see Table l) in which the yield in plot uv is missing. We wish to make an estimation of this value. From equation (1.15) we know Y' Yo ".....f; .19..." (1) y‘s-rI-n 3!. which is on the average the "best" value of the yield Y (J ' In the case when a missing plot occurs in treatment u and block v , 1,“. is the sum of the value of the y yield of the missing plot and the sum of the known yields in that treatment; we will denote this sum of known yields by T9 . Similarly, Y.v is the sum of the value of the ‘n “‘3 r fiz‘xw. j 74. yield of the missing plot and the sum of the known yields in block v which we shall denote by Ev). Y,. is the sum of the value of the yield of the missing plot and the sum of the known yields, which we shall denote by T (no subscript). Substituting these sums in (l) we have + B yvv +'TU yov v yvv _____.____+_________- r n N 4-T (2) y.v = Solving this equation for’yvv, we have (3) y g n.Tu,-h r Bv - T . 0V ’Tn-l)(r-l) This is essentially the same as that given in the liter- ature cited. If there are two missing values occuring, we shall assume in two different treatments and two different blocks, the problem becomes one of solving the two fol- lowing simultaneous equations for yuv and y3": (4) y -— -——————y"" *T" +____y”"*B" - y“ ”7" ”l . UV ' r n N 'yfl-O-T‘ y51+Bt yuvq-y‘cd'l‘ . This gives: (6) y" s T“ 1)? ”if; [(r-l)(n-l)(n TV .1» Bv- T) O r- O - (n Tsi-r B‘s-'13)] , 7S. and ySt is a similar expression. The reader will readily see that it is possible to solve for any reasonable number of missing plots, no matter where they appear in the layout. In the case of a Latin Square, equation (4.12) is used. To illustrate this problem let us assume that the values of ym,W and y“:W are missing. The values are in different rows and columns, but they are in the same treatment. The resulting simultaneous equations are: _ yvvw+ystw*Tw+ yuvw*Ru ... yuvw"0v yWW” n n n (7) _ 2 (yovw+ysew+T N and _yuvw*y:tw +Tw+ yet-w *RJ' yttw"'ct sGtmr' :1 n n (8) _ 2 (yuvw+:8tw*‘r) , \Nhere TV." is the sum of the known yields in treatment w ; 130 is the sum of the known yields in row u ; CV, is the sum of the known yields in column v 3 and T is the grand ‘total of the known yields. YIhe solution for yUVVV is : 76. (9) yuvw = (n-2)[:(n-1)1-41T [(n-1)(n Tw-vn C's-n R, - 2 T) + (n Tad-n Ct-I-n R5 - 2 T)] , and yStw is a similar eXpression. Equation (5.12) would be used to estimate the value of missing plots in the analysis of covariance for randomized blocks. Similarly, equations (3.17), (6.14), (7.11), (0.15), and (9.11) may be used in estimating missing plot values for the various experimental designs. ‘ 11.. u 1.3.35 ‘9- 'Im - a 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 77. Bibliography Allen, F. E. and Wishart, J. A method 2: estimating the yield 9: a missing plot in field experiment- 2; mg. Jour. Agr. Sci., 20:399-406. 1930. Baten, W. D. Formulas £23 finding estimates for two and three missing_plots in randomized block lay- ggtg. Mich. State College, Tech. Bul. 165. Apr. 1939. ' Fisher, R. A. Statistical methods for research work- 222° Oliver and Boyd, Londen. 6th Ed. 1936. Fisher, R. A. The design 2; experiments. Oliver and Boyd, Edinburgh. 2nd Ed. 1937. Fisher, R. A. and Mackenzie, W. A. Studies in 3322 variation, I}. The manurial response 9: differ- ent potato varieties. Jour. Agr. Sei., 13:311. 1923. Goulden, C. H. Methods 2; Statistical analysis. John Wiley and Sons, New York. 1939. Goulden, C. H. Modern methods for testing a large number 92 varieties. Dominion of Canada, Dept. of Agr., Tech. Bul. 9. 1937. Rider, R. R. An introduction 29 modern statistical mgthgdg. John Wiley and Sons, New York. 1939. Snedecor, G. W. Statistical methods. Collegiate Press, Ames, Iowa. 1938. Weiss, M. G. and Cox, G. M. Balanced incomplete I 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 78. block and lattice square designs for testing yield differences among large numbers 2: 221; bean varieties. Iowa State College, Research Bul. 257. Apr. 1939. Yates, F. A further note 23 the arrangement 2: variety trials: Qpasi-Latin squares. Ann. of Eug., 73319-332- 1935-7. Yates, F. A new method 2: arranging variety trials involving_a large number 2; varieties. Jour. Agr. Sei., 26:424-55. 1936. Yates, F. lggompletg Latin squares. Jour. Agr. Sci,, 26:301-15. 1936. Yates, F. Igcomplete randomized blocks. Ann. of Eug., 7:121-140. 1936-7. Yates, F. The design and analysis 2; factorial experiments. Yates, F. The recovery 9: interblock information in incomplete blocks and quasi-factorial g3- signs. Ann. of Bug. 1939. Youden, W. J. Qg3_g§ incomplete block replications in estimating Tobacgg-Mosaie 31333. Contribu- tions, Bche-Thompson Institute for Plant Res search, 9:41-48. 1937-8. 0. 1' _ln_1u'_L-a;‘-__ ' 3114. _ -.rr.‘ '_\.‘:’.‘5 . ' £3.1-4___£. ——-——L——— 12 _"'-— ”(IT (WW) )1)! (1(1)!) ilflflmfllliliil‘l)”