EGG PRICE PREDICTEON MODEL FOR THE JAPANESE EGG. INDUSTRY Thesis for the Degree of M. S. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY NORIHIKD GOTO 1973 b 4 Michigan State 5 niVCrgity - ‘5' ”x V mamas“: fl“ 800K BINHFRY lNfi. LIRRAR' H «.0me §P“' " :n5 uh“.‘ .‘5-21 {m ‘h— Sr 5' -— A‘iL “g VI ABSTRACT EGG PRICE PREDICTION MODEL FOR JAPANESE EGG INDUSTRY By Norihiko Goto Adequate egg price forecasting is a necessity for business concerns if they are to profitably market eggs. The purpose of this study was to evaluate an egg price prediction model used in the United States as a long range egg price prediction model for the Japanese egg industry. The historical data used was for the six-year time period of 1965 through 1970, and included Tokyo wholesale egg price (yen/kilogram eggs), egg/feed (yen/20 kilogram bag of feed) price ratio, pullet chicks started, number of laying hens, number of laying hens sold, percentage egg production and imported and eXported eggs. In addition, seasonality factors, demand situation, projected figures on egg price and egg numbers were calculated for use in the price projection model. Variables examined in terms of projection feasibility and accuracy were: 1. Pullet chicks started were projected in relation to the Tokyo wholesale egg price occurring two months prior to the actual chick placement. The correlation value obtained indicates that there was a relatively high correlation during the Norihiko Goto months March through October but a relatively low correlation November through February. The correlation between egg/feed price ratio and number of pullet chicks started showed less importance than the egg price-pullet chicks started relation. Layer number culled was estimated from the monthly difference of laying hen numbers and the number of pullet chicks started six months previously. This figure was estimated because of a lack of published data. The relationship of estimated layer number sold and the Tokyo wholesale egg price, both occurring in the same month, was calculated. The correlation value was significant (P:p.05) in only three of the 12 monthly values calculated. Thus, the importance of actual figures is emphasized and suggests that the number of layers culled be added to the list of statistical data collected about the Japanese egg industry. Demand situation which was determined from the relationship of per capita egg consumption and the Tokyo wholesale egg price. The relationship was compared for the years 1960 through 1966 and the years 1966 through 1970. The trend was for the demand for eggs in Japan to become more inelastic with the price elasticity being -4.55 in 1966 and -2.57 in 1970. If this trend continues and demand becomes highly inelastic, accurate projection of supply becomes very critical in accurate projection of price. Norihiko Goto 4. Price seasonality which was examined in terms of monthly price fluctuations by the 12 months' moving average technique. Negative factors were calculated for January, May, June, July and August with positive factors being calculated for the other seven months. Three projection methods to predict the 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price were compared to check the accuracy of the projection model. The first method utilized the actual egg production number and the actual Tokyo wholesale egg price to project the number of layers culled and the number of pullet chicks started. The second method utilized the actual Tokyo wholesale egg price but with a projected egg production number. The third method utilized projected figures for egg production number and egg price and is the method which would have to be utilized if the egg price in the future 18 months is to be predicted. Comparison of graphic presentations of the three methods indicate that the third method can be adequately utilized to predict the future Tokyo wholesale egg price in Japan. EGG PRICE PREDICTION MODEL FOR THE JAPANESE EGG INDUSTRY BY Norihiko Goto A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Department of Poultry Science 1973 (+7141 \ ‘( ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express sincere thanks and appreciation to Dr. John H. Wolford, Associate Professor of Poultry Science, for his interest, guidance and help in this study, and for his assistance in development of the Master's Degree program. Sincere appreciation is expressed to Dr. Henry E. Larzelere, Professor of Agricultural Economics, for his guidance in development of the egg price prediction model in this study. The author is indebted to the Department of Poultry Science, Michigan State University for providing the study opportunity. Special thanks go to Goto Hatchery, Inc., for their financial support during the period of study. ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . Chapter I. INTRODUCTION II. REVIEW OF LITERATURE . . . . . . . . . . . III. OBJECTIVES . . . . . . . . IV. EGG INDUSTRY IN JAPAN--GENERAL STATISTICS V. EGG MARKET SYSTEM IN JAPAN . . . . . . . . A. Prefecture surplus-deficit relation, 1955,1970 . . . . . . . . . B. Egg flow from production area to 11 major markets . . . . . . . . . . . . C. Egg marketing channels . . . . . . . . . D Egg price quotation . . VI. EGG PRICE PREDICTION MODEL FOR JAPAN General procedure . . . Projection of pullet chicks started Projection of number of layers culled . Projection of number of laying hens for 1970 Estimation of layer output . . . . . . . . Imported and exported eggs . . . Projection of total egg production for 1971. Estimation of demand . . . . . . Seasonality adjustment and standard deviation . Projection of Tokyo wholesale egg price . gHznommcnw> iii Page vii 13 14 16 16 20 23 26 28 28 34 41 43 45 47 49 52 55 S7 Chapter VII. DISCUSSION . VIII. SUMMARY . LITERATURE CITED APPENDIX . iv Page 65 68 71 73 Table 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. LIST OF TABLES General statistics of the Japanese egg industry . Percentage egg flow from production area to 11 major markets in 1969 . Tokyo wholesale egg price . Retail feed price . Egg/feed price ratio . Number of pullet chicks started Number of laying hens Percentage egg production Number of eggs produced . Relationship between number of pullet chicks started and Tokyo wholesale egg price Relationship between number of pullet chicks started and egg/feed price ratio . Estimated number of layers culled Relationship between number of layers culled and Tokyo wholesale egg price Projected number of laying hens for 1970 Relationship between Tokyo wholesale egg price and the total imported eggs or imported frozen liquid eggs . . . . . . . . Page 15 21 3O 31 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 42 44 46 SO Table Page 16. Projected number of eggs produced by month in 1971 as compared to the actual numbers reported . . . . . SI 17. Monthly seasonality factor for the Tokyo wholesale egg price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 18. Tokyo wholesale egg price, predicted vs. actual price difference according to method of calculation in 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Al. Number of eggs produced, adjusted for difference in number of days per month . . . . . . . . . . . 73 A2. Seasonality of Tokyo wholesale egg price . . . . . . 74 A3. Seasonality of number of pullet chicks started . . . . 75 A4. Seasonality of number of laying hens . . . . . . . 76 AS. Seasonality of percentage egg production . . . . . . 77 A6. Seasonality of number of eggs produced . . . . . . . 78 A7. Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 79 A8. Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 A9. Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 3 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. 2. 10. 11. 12. Prefectures, regions and islands of Japan . Prefecture surplus-deficit (1955) Prefecture surplus-deficit (1970) Production regions and the 11 major market locations Japanese egg market channels Variables in egg price prediction model Relationship of Tokyo wholesale egg price and total imported eggs or frozen liquid eggs Relationship between adjusted Tokyo wholesale egg price and per capita egg consumption Trend in egg production volume Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 1 . . Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 2 . . . . . . . Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-- method 3 . . . . vii Page l7 18 19 22 25 29 48 S3 56 6O 61 62 INTRODUCTION As symbolized by per capita consumption of 101 eggs in 1960 to 295 eggs in 1970, thngapanese egg industry has grown rapidly during the last decade. In 1960, 3.2 million farmers kept 44.5 million laying hens; whereas, by 1970 only 1.6 million farmers kept 118.2 million layers. Poultry production has now become one of the most important commodities in Japanese agriculture ranking third behind rice and dairy. Of key concern to farmers, as well as breeders, hatcheries, feed manufacturers and distributors is egg price. On-farm egg price during the past ten years has fluctuated widely from season to season and year to year. Despite inflation, egg price has gradually declined while per capita egg consumption has increased steadily. To farmers, egg price reflects in their decision making as to expansion, enter- prise reduction or consideration of production costs in relation to the egg price-profit picture. To distributors, price level is a reflection of the supply-demand situation in which they must sell eggs smoothly while maintaining a profitable marketing margin. To consumers, egg price is of concern because of the household food budget. To input-suppliers, such as breeders, hatcheries, pullet growers and feed manufacturers, a slight change in price level may affect severely their sales. If a company on the input-supply side does not anticipate egg price changes, sales may be either long or short and result in loss of profits or business failure. Thus, adequate egg price forecasting is a necessity for business concerns if they are to profitably market eggs. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to evaluate a modified egg price predic- tion model used in the United States as a long range egg price pre- diction model for the Japanese egg industry. REVIEW OF LITERATURE Gerra (1959) presented a detailed analyses of the major factors that affect the demand for and supply of eggs in the United States and the quantification in a statistical model of the relationships among those factors. Eleven structural equations (two demand, two supply, two price level, one storage and four identity equations) were formu- lated to explain the major relationships in the egg industry to supply and price. Based on data for the years 1931-54, excluding 1942-45, demand and supply coefficients were statistically obtained by the method of limited information, which allowed for the simultaneous re- lationships in the egg industry and by the method of least squares. Coefficients obtained by fitting demand relationships by the simul- taneous approach differed more than the least squares results for the comparable demand relationships than that for the supply relationships. The variables that Gerra (1959) considered in his structural model of the egg economy were as follows: A. Endogenous variables (variables whose relationship among them- selves and with other variables are to be determined from knowledge of variables whose values are assumed to be known). 1. Civilian domestic disappearance of eggs. 2. Retail price of eggs. 3. Farm production of eggs. Average number of layers on farms during the year. Number of pullets raised. Number of layers sold and consumed on farms where produced. Farm price of eggs. Farm production of eggs minus the January-June net into storage movement of shell, frozen and dried eggs (shell equivalent), excluding government stocks. January~June net into-storage movement of shell, frozen and dried eggs (shell equivalent) excluding government stocks. Predetermined variables 1. 2. 10. 11. 12. 13. Consumer disposable income. Retail price of meats, poultry and fish. Retail price of cheese. Retail price of bacon. Retail price of ready-to-eat cereals. Consumers' price index of all items. Average number of eggs produced per layer during the year. Number of hens and pullets of laying age and pullets not yet laying on farms. Difference between civilian domestic disappearance of eggs and farm production of eggs. Mortality of layers plus a balancing residual. Average price of poultry ration. Population eating out of civilian supplies. Number of eggs produced on farms. 14. Unit labor cost of marketing food products. 15. Gain or loss on futures contracts, previous year, speculative long position. Gould (1970) studied the factors that influence the daily quotations for large, medium, pullet and peewee eggs originating in the New York wholesale market during a five year period (1962 through 1966). To compensate for the effects of different months and seasons, data were grouped into monthly time periods. The single- equation, least squares multiple regression technique, using daily observations, was employed as the method of analysis. Supply-and- demand variables considered important in the pricing of eggs were: retail movement, military purchases, receipts of wholesalers, delivery to breakers and storage holdings. In the daily market, variables selected for use in the models were those considered regular in occurrence and most influential in the determination of daily New York wholesale quotations. Demand variables selected were: estimated retail movement in New York, by size; deliveries to breakers in the East and West North Central regions; and military purchases. The supply variable used was New York Commercial Egg Movement, estimated by size; and comprises the cases of eggs picked up at farms by first receivers in the New York metropolitan area. Conclusions of the study were: A. Egg market quotations are the result of numerous economic factors acting on their knowledge of these forces. Many of the forces operate daily, while others are important only predict periodically. Some can be easily measured, while others are more difficult to measure. The flow of eggs to market or into retail channels, for example, is a daily occurrence that can be rather precisely measured. 0n the other hand, factors such as inclement weather, strikes and psych010gical attitudes vary in occurrence and importance and are not readily pre- dictable or measurable. The models devised considered only five of the important variables that influence daily quotations, thus requiring continuous collection of data and exceptional judgment on part of the user. Masters and Jones (1970) developed a mathematical model to short run egg price changes in the Southeast. Least squares multiple regression techniques were used. The objective of the study was to explain weekly changes in the price of Grade A large eggs in the 1967 and 1968 Georgia market. The general model developed to explain weekly egg price changes had the following format: P1 = f (PO, Ph, Io/l, 50/1) where P1 = the average price of large eggs in the current week, P0 = the price of large eggs on Friday of the previous week, P Io/ h the historical average price for the current week based on the preceding six year period. the weekend inventory position of packers and handlers in the United States for the previous or current week. So/1 = the average daily surplus or shortage condition of packers and handlers in the Southeast for the previous or current week. Paremeter estimates were established for both a lagged and non-lagged form of this model. The non-lagged version of the model explained over 90 percent of the average weekly variation in the farm price of eggs in Georgia. The previous Friday's price (P0) was the most important, accounting for over 80 percent of the price variation. Of the remaining variables in the non-lagged model, only packers' long or short position (51) was important, accounting for about 9 percent of the total variation. In the lagged model the historical average price variable (Ph) replaced packers' surplus-shortage position (So) as the second most important variable. This implies that the effect of packers' surplus or shortage position on price was not lagged; but it apparently influenced price during the week that the surplus or shortage occurred. Siebert (1969) developed two mathematical models to predict the egg price in each of two California cities, Los Angeles and San Francisco. The first equations were formulated to estimate Los Angeles and San Francisco prices from New York price and Western egg supply. These equations were: X = b + b X + b X 1 0(4) 1(4) 3 2(4) 4 2 = ”0(4) * hm) *3 * bzm x4 where X1 weekly average of the low side of the price range for Los Angeles large grade AA price-to-retailers, delivered-in- cartons, X2 2 weekly average of the low side of the price range for San Francisco large grade AA egg price-to-retailers, delivered- in-cartons, X3 a weekly average of the low side of the wholesale price range fer New York large eggs of 75% A quality, X4 = weekly per capita supplies of eggs in the West as indicated by Commercial Egg Movement Report of the Market News Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and b0, b1, b2 = regression coefficients for the two models. Results of the regression analysis on the preceding models yielded a corre- lation coefficient of 0.876 and 0.864, reSpectively, for the Los Angeles and San Francisco price. Although these correlation coeffi- cients were high, considerable variation was still unexplained. Thus, a second set of equations were developed as follows: 1 = b0(1) * b1(1) x4 * b2(l) x5 * b3(1) x6 2 b0(2) * bl(2) x4 * bzcz) Xs * b3(2) x6 3 b0(3) * b1(3) xs * b2(3) x6 * b3(3) x7 where X1 Los Angeles monthly average price-to-retailers, delivered- in-cartons for large grade AA eggs, >< ll 2 San Francisco monthly average price-to-retailers, delivered-in-cartons for large grade AA eggs, >< ll 3 California farm price at mid-month, >< ll 4 New York monthly average wholesale price for 70% A quality eggs, >< ll 5 monthly California per capita egg production, >< ll 6 monthly military shell-egg purchases for the United States, >< ll 7 United States farm price, and b0, b b2, b3 = regression coefficients for the three equations. 1. Results of the regression analysis on the preceding models yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.907, 0.901 and 0.928, respectively, for the Los Angeles, San Francisco and California farm price. Smith and Christensen (1970) utilized least squares multiple regression techniques to estimate the equation farm and parameter values for a short run large brown egg price estimator for the New England region. A series of different models were tested differing in the number and form of the independent variables used. Of the several models tested, two showed particular promise and were reported. The dependent variable (the estimated value) was the New England wholesale weekly average of the daily base price quotation for large brown eggs. The price determining variables used in the analysis were identified as follows (Smith, 1969): X1 and X2 = dummy variables assuming value of zero or one used to reflect market tone which was defined as a classifi- cation of sentiment among handlers and represents a concensus of the egg traders' predictions of the direction of price movement (i.e., weak, steady and firm), 10 the New York large white egg Friday quotation, and was used to bring the national supply and demand situation into the model to indicate the pressures of interregional competition, cold storage holdings of eggs in ten major cities and was used in order to provide an indicator of egg supplies, military purchase price of shell eggs for East Coast export, Boston large white egg Friday quotation minus the New York large white egg Friday quotation and was used to partially account for future price changes by indicating interregional forces, the difference between the New York fancy large brown egg Friday quotation and the same quotation on the previous Friday and was selected as an indicator of changes in the marginal supply of brown eggs in New England, the three week moving average of the differences between the Boston large brown weekly average quota- tion and the Boston medium brown weekly average quotation and was used because medium eggs substitute for large eggs at rates which vary with the price difference which inclusion of this variable was an attempt to allow for such substitution, 11 x9 = the Boston brown large Friday quotation minus the New York white large egg Friday quotation and was used as an indication of the seasonality of demand for eggs in New England, X10 = the number of cases of graded large eggs in the New England weekend inventory and was used because quantity of eggs in inventory generally indicates the product available for sale during the next week in addition to fresh receipts. Model I used weekly observation from time series data of approximately 18 months duration from June, 1966 through December, 1967 and in- cluded variables X1 through X9. Model II differed from Model I in that Model II was designed to be used on Monday and contained The coefficient of variable X 0 in addition to X through X 1 l 9' determination (R2) was 0.95 for Model I and 0.96 for Model II. The simple arithmetic means of the estimated prices as compared to actual prices over the test period differed by less than one-tenth of a cent. An at-the-farm egg price prediction report has been pub- lished periodically by Larzelere (1971a) for use by Michigan egg producers. The price report includes a blend price for all eggs produced during a 15-month lay cycle on a quarter (every three months) basis for flocks started the past 15 months (historical fact) and the future nine months (predicted price). The price calculation has been based on the monthly average of the Detroit, Michigan wholesale distributor paying price for grade A large size eggs. 12 However, included in the egg price prediction model are (Larzelere, 1971b): 1. 2. monthly hatch number for layers, monthly cull number for layers, monthly layer number, monthly rate of lay for egg-type chickens, historical trends of egg production and price levels, seasonal factors and an adjustment for price elasticity of demand. The price prediction report has been issued several times a year for use by the Michigan poultry industry as an aid in projecting profits for an existing or future laying flock. OBJECTIVES To evaluate an egg price prediction model used in the United States as a long range egg price prediction model for the Japanese egg industry with the following being supportive: a. To investigate the important factors affecting the Japanese egg price. b. To evaluate the existing Japanese statistical data in terms of completeness for use in price forecasting. c. To understand the Japanese egg price system. 13 EGG INDUSTRY IN JAPAN--GENERAL STATISTICS During the last decade numbers of farms having egg production has decreased 65 percent while layer number has increased 2.65 times (Table 1). Within this same time period, 1960 to 1970, per capita egg consumption has increased from 101 to 295 eggs per person. Egg production per layer has improved 16.7 percent during the ten year period, 1960 to 1970. Importation of breeding stock from foreign countries began in 1963. Egg production has gradually specialized into a few large scale enterprises and middle-sized laying flock producers. In 1971, less than 2 percent of the total producers with more than 1,000 size laying flocks owned 85.4 percent of the layers in Japan (Anonymous, 1971b). One crucial point of the Japanese egg industry is the supply of feed ingredients. In 1969, the dependency of imported feed ingredients was 81.4 percent (Anonymous, 1972b). 14 15 ome.moH meo.~oH woe.HoH me~.ooH omo.ee mn~.wm eue.me onw.mm Hegemsonuv Houeoee .ozv :OHueHznom mmm mmm cum «mm mew omm emu ANN omH «mm omH mHm HoH vow on onH Hmanmo nouv Hcoc\mmmou :oHpmssmcou :oHuosuoum mmm mmm H H thshpod co voeHenouop aha whenesz HaHemH .msoexcoe mm wxmmo ow --.wv eouo me oEHEm em oeeeHcm em eeesexez an N. ,\I memwmmz Ne Hnoox mm meHzmonH: mm mumz AN mmmm He eeHcmson mm Hpouuop mm ago»: on mzmcon we axosxau ow m3mwmx cm msmxmxo Hm mmHnm mm ohsuoomoum .ezecuxo samesx exoxugm exomegu Segue commom mzmcon szmsxx :xoanm szmco: acmeo: uneHmH .5 mzmwmcmx mH osxoe eH eeflgoexee A maeonm mH denuded» 0 0H: em stsm om mpHsu NH Hmmtz m excaanm mN azmanmH mH meumnH HH oumzH v HEoH< NN oeeaoe mu ooemez AH umflgooe 0H eeux< m stu Hm wummHHz w Hammcmse> 0H macaw m Hnoeo< N opmexo: H ennuoowohm HmHOP :ansxoz smack oucmx DxOLOH opmexo: :oHuom scmco: :zmco: zgmco: snmco: zcmco: ovaxxom paaHmH A» c 18 ch Hmvcamsonuv name we honeuz "uHeb HmmmHv uHonovumanunm.ousuoomoum .N ousuHm mum: l9 Haveumsogug mmuo mo nonesz "uHea HosaHv uHonov-maHaH=m ousuoomoum .n ouamHm Q CQO MI 0“ o I o: . -O. o... one x . em» flo/u «$132... .7. /—\ /I— s ’I \/\A K mw1\/M. IOHIUII|\ H (\Pl“ I \ l/|\ U \_ Bmo . \— ./ \l \1\ ”EN! \\ f ’\ \\ \s \ a 87.4 x 0-, 3, :3. m IL Jl/ _ / e~u-\c \No- lual\l\\ .l‘l a: x, 20 tourist resort areas, such as, the island of Hokkaido and the prefec- tures of Nagano and Kyoto became more deficit. The prefectures that are close to the major cities had an expansion in egg production; however, the prefectures in which the major cities are located became more deficit. DeSpite heavy snow in the winter, the prefectures of Aomori, Toyama and Ishikawa have become surplus, probably because of labor availability and technological advances in housing. B. Egg flow from production area to 11 major markets. As shown in Table 2, the flow of eggs from the major production areas to the major markets can be blocked into two separate areas. The northern region (Figure 4) had the five markets of Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Yokohama and Nagoya and the six production areas of Hokkaido, Tohoku, Kanto, Hokuriku, Tozan and Tokai. The southern region had the six markets of Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Kite-Kyushu and Fukuoka and the five production areas of Tokai, Kinki, Chugoku, Shikoku and Kyushu. The division of these two regions, northern and southern, was not completely separate because the Tokai production area provided eggs for markets in both regions as did Kinki, Kanto and Kyushu. The egg flow to the major markets from the regional production areas illustrate the significance of each market and production area. Tokyo was the most important market in Japan in 1969 with Osaka being the second largest (Table 2). These two markets received 28.1 percent of the total eggs; whereas, the 11 cities accounted for 45.1 percent 21 HaHumH .msosxcoe oxxop Iduwv— xua HmomH :H muexuee Memes HH on «one :oHuostAm scum onm wmo ammucoouoe o.» e.~ n.5H m.o ~.H - H.N e.o - - - - o.o - - - - H.H - - - - H.H - m.m o.me m.no H.He - A.HH - - e.~ - - - - «.0 - - - N.Hm o.me o.eH - - - e.o n.mA m.oH - - - - o.em Hancom ouoaamm H :oHuostAm Hence we omaueoouom snmsxx sxostm :xomagu chHx me09 genes :xHesxo: ouemx axonoh ovaxxo: :HmHuo mo :onom .N 39m... 22 58333 93.35 momma HH 0.3 H65 33m?» 53260.5 .e 0.3me SEAS—o» M can u o «Howaz 9.0.3. . ox. / I \ x - .1. 3%... made: 1. . «to. c In x H N \I . I"-\.\1\ \ . [\J I \ / s~ i0”; 0 ~s / \ /)z x t c snaffle. Have—om >1 \\ \ 4 06 s x): \ m one? uaHnmonHz 3—033"— IL will / s // gone... |1\<\\ .I‘l \I ’ I I I I \ II In I 5 oHo Ho 330: 23 of the total eggs. The two major production areas were Tokai and Kanto which produced 39.4 percent of the total eggs. C. Egg marketing channels. A survey reported by the Japanese Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry in 1972 (Anonymous, 1972a) illustrated the egg marketing channels and the proportion of egg flow through each channel. The actual survey was conducted during 1968 and included egg marketing organizations and agencies dealing with over ten tons (2,000 pounds/ ton) of eggs each year. Imported eggs, eggs used for hatching and those eggs consumed on the farm were excluded. Each organization or agency is defined: 1. General Farm Bureau--A cooperative organization that had four functions: enterpriSe consultation, purchase of input materials, sale of products and credit for members. Other commodities, such as rice, livestock and vegetables, are also handled. 2. Egg Farm Bureau--A Specialized c00perative organization that handled only eggs and usually did not have a credit function. 3. Federal Farm Bureau--A prefectural organization for local General Farm Bureau and Egg Farm Bureau organizations. 4. Egg Marketing Association-~A private organization of egg producers. S. Trucker--An agency that functioned in assembling eggs from producers and transporting the eggs to the market place. 24 6. Large Scale Independent Producer--A producer that produced over ten tons of eggs and shipped directly to the Egg Markets, Wholesalers or Retailers. 7. Egg Markets--The large city markets, such as Tokyo and Osaka. Two-thirds of the Egg Markets were managed by a national federation of Farm Bureau called "Zennoren." The remaining one-third were private corporations. The function of the Egg Markets was to receive eggs, establish wholesale price and market eggs wholesale to distributors, institutions, retailers or processors. The Egg Market charged one percent of gross sales as a commission. 8. Wholesaler--Was limited mostly to a local area of distributing eggs purchased from the Egg Markets or assemblies to retailers, institutions or processors. 9. Retailer--Included grocery store, super-market, Specialized egg store and institutions. 10. Processor--Included the breakers, cake manufacturers and mayonnaise manufacturers. As shown in Figure 5, in the assembly stage about 30 percent of the eggs produced by the 1.9 million producers were assembled by Farm Bureaus. Another 30 percent were assembled by the Egg Marketing Associations and truckers. However, the largest preportion, 40 per- cent of the assembly stage, was performed by individual producers, especially large scale independent producors that shipped directly to wholesalers, retailers or processors. 25 330» you :3 3 Move: :3: «Hues N .HauhmH .msoaxeoéu humouom one ohsuHaoHuu< mo 5.335: 05. .533. "ouusomH HmHoSnuzo vogue... 30 03593. .m 0.5»: .9333 4. III-l Homage» AIIIIII ““5“ I 03:83.. AIIIIII Hme mm omen—393m .- H V H U .IlllllmMoINoJ 33 Towel . m n "T .333 — nemnoooum veomoq .1. v5 whee—oak. H3 .0953. 3 u. _ e3... Seam . .11.... A " Honfl 33 4 [V 33.33 who one A $8 33 o. ... A $3 .7 . _ . _ . m .m .0034. x 3 Tu): $53.8: 4 H3 .330an I AET _ “4| mum H3” mnonmoHoés $3 I . u - anV NW \— n P no I L I. I-.. woman—m 1?: House :32 93 H8 1...”. .1 Ed". new .2... _ . e _ _ .1 H u u 83 c \ 3.3.25 4 9030095 ll Fl 83 4.24aqu and $8 8" :e u .T- use... eye a mu Ill... 3. o: m :3 _ 6 . :3 I?‘ _ masonsm RT .8333. AIL 23 seen. He any Hanovem 26 Approximately 20 percent of the eggs were received by the Egg Markets, primarily from the Federal Farm Bureaus; and over 50 percent of the eggs were received by wholesalers. Wholesalers sup- plied 65 percent of the total eggs to retailers or processors. The remaining percentage of eggs were shipped directly to retailers or processors. About 50 percent of the large scale independent pro- ducers were observed to have a direct connection with the retailing stage. Of the total eggs, 15 percent went to the processing segment. Egg sizing, grading and packaging practices were not surveyed in this report (Anonymous, 1972a); however, sizing and grading was done at all stages with 40 to 50 percent of the eggs being sold in lO-egg cartons at the retail store. D. Egg price quotation. In recent years, quotation prices for wholesale shell eggs have originated from the cities of Sapporo, Sendai, Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto, Osaka, Kobe, Hiroshima, Fukuoka and Kita-Kyushu (Anonymous, 1971a). These quotations are obtained from the Egg Markets (wholesale receivers) in each city, except Yokohama, and the quotation price is determined from the wholesale receivers' sales price to wholesale distributors. In Yokohama the price is determined from bids of wholesale distributors. 0f the quotations, the Tokyo quotation is the most important because: 1. The Tokyo market is the largest market. 2. The tranSportation system is centralized in Tokyo. 27 3. The Tokyo quotation is used by four of the Egg Markets (Zennoren, Toyokeiran, Tokyo Keiran and Yokeishinko). One of these Egg Markets is managed in each city by Zennoren (National Federation of Farm Bureau). Zennoren handles 36 percent of the total egg supply in Japan. The standard quotation price is expressed as yen per one kilogram of grade "Excellent" eggs in a ten kilogram case. Price differentiation by size is not considered for large, medium and small; but if the ten kilogram case contains extra small eggs, the price is discounted. There is a price differential for quality (usually 2-3 yen/kg between Excellent and First Class grades) with a greater discount being applied in summer than winter months. EGG PRICE PREDICTION MODEL FOR JAPAN A. General procedure. The monthly egg price prediction model followed in this study was that of Larzelere (1971b). The variables and their rela- tionship to each other are shown in Figure 6. The prediction model was considered hypothetical and was evaluated using historical data to predict the 1971 Tokyo wholesale price. The Tokyo wholesale price was the price in yen of one kilogram of "Excellent" grade eggs in a ten kilogram case. Japanese grades and sizes for eggs are: Grade Size Excellent Large, 62-74 g/egg First Class Medium, 50-62 g/egg Second Class Small, 44-50 g/egg Off—Grade Extra Small, 36—44 g/egg The historical data used were for the six year period, 1965 through 1970. This relatively short time period was selected because it was considered to be representative of the presently existing Japanese poultry industry. The actual monthly historical data used in the various cal- culations are presented in Tables 3 (Tokyo wholesale egg price), 4 (retail feed price), 5 (egg/feed price ratio), 6 (number of pullet 28 29 Egg/Feed Price Ratio ‘F Number of pullet chicks <}_, 588 started (2) Price (6) L Layers (0) Initial number of laying hens Culled (1) Vb Projected number of laying hens Percentage 088 I Imported G Exported production Projected number of eggs produced Eggs level Demand Situation Egg consumption Egg price level Price elasticity Calculated egg price <: Seasonal factor of egg price \ / Projected egg price Figure 6. ( ) Number indicates monthly time lag. l / Variables in egg price prediction model 30 wwa NmH omH mod mmH Now Baa ommuo>< mmm va own mom mmm mam wen .uoo won oHN HNN oHN mam mmH mum .>oz now now mom NmH vow now BHN .uoo H HNN Hwa omH now cam com omm .aow NmH 50H moH wna mma Hwa omH .m=< Hoa mvH 00H ona 00H 05H 00H .Hsm some: 00H mmH moH mod mmH NmH Nmu .csn mowed mmo oHMmoHocz oxxoh .ooH mm~ NoH omH mmH aha Hm“ Am: .m 3.3 00H 05H aha me 05H mma mod .nn< mmo mo eanmofiflx oco you no» enema .msosxeo:< owH mom NHN mum «on cow HwH .Hez mmH mNN me omN HHN HmN Ana .3". mwa mum 05H man How mum Hod 05h! N "3.28mH Huma onma mama mama mama coma mood nae» 31 Nam mnn man man can own ommuo>< omw mnn vnn vmn con man .009 new Nnn mnn man can nwn .>oz new mnn van «on can own .30 mum vnn mwn man can own .mom H cam mnn mwn van eon own .ms< wow mnn mwn man can mnn .Hsh 55.. oownm poem meuom now mnn mwn vmn non own .esw ... «33 now mnn mwn mmn nmn own no: mow mnn vwn mmn nmn mnn .Ha< poem mo Eenmoflwx om non co>m oHan .maoanco:< mwn mnn own can can wnn . HmZ wnn mnn omn .omn mmn vnn .3... mnn mnn man man can men .cmh ”oouzom a oan mama womH noma coma moma new» ow\:ono euwpn poem u coHuou olom pooM\mme 32 H m eHnon . Hm e mo eon oHHx\cono oUHHm mm“ vomw. nHmw. anew. mmpw. ome. opow. epwH. oan. mmmH. owHw. meow. wmww. oHaw. oan nmvw. mem. meow. nonw. «mew. enHw. meow. oon. mmow. mew. wenw. meow. onww. momH Hemw. oonw. monw. mew. meow. mnww. HnHw. ome. wmww. vmmw. nnww. pon. mHmw. momH nwew. ommw. HHnw. mpmw. Hmpw. ompw. wHow. wmmH. eme. mme. womw. omow. mwmw. npmH nmmw. Hmnw. meow. ooow. nomw. mnww. mnHw. moew. meww. omvw. mew. anm. Hnow. oooH nmmw. ann. nmmw. wwnw. owow. mmvw. ome. ovoH. mmmH. wmow. pwnw. moww. pon. momH omone>< .ooo .>oz .uoo .mem .m:< .Hso .cso no: .Hm¢ .noz .nem .cep Hoe» coco: oHueu ooHno poem\mmm .m eHnme 33 omo.ne. mao.ov. «mo.em. one.w.. .wN.n.H ~5...o. emeuo>< vo.m omo.n mmh.m m...w non.a omm.o m~¢.e .ooo on.0 nem.m hwo.a won.m wee.» ewe.n mom.o .>oz mm.n nw~.o. ego... om~.o. ecu.” oom.a .m..a .uuo 00.0 nnm.m wmm.a n~¢.m ama.n o~m.n .oo.o .oem no.0 Nm.o no.“ oe.o. mmm.m oem.o. mm..~. www.mH a~e.m mo~.o. an.... m~o.v~ n-.m mmm.m ave... mom.v. «00.5 mm..w ma..m mne... ome.o ~mm.o onn.w ww..~. mom.v ono.e moe.o New.m .m:< .Hsp .csp no: coco: Hpeuuoum mongo uoHHsa mo Henenz 0o.wH mme.n. Nom.o. ven.e. www.mH nom.o. nmm.e. .Hm< .0 eHnob ov.mH mnw.n. v.0.a. No..e. -~.o. mew.w. m.e.o. .hez eHBm. .maoaxeoc< no.0 meo.n. oom.~. ow~.~. Ham... New... emu... .no. neu.a accuses» . pee: w no.0 ~nm.o. e.w.m cmm.m m.o.m wom.w nmm.o Ugh! w "oouso mH oweueeouem omoue>< onoH o0oH o0oH n0oH 00oH m0oH noon 34 chicks started), 7 (number of laying hens), 8 (percentage egg produc- tion) and 9 (number of eggs produced).' Additional data are listed in the Appendix Tables--l (number of eggs produced, adjusted for difference in number of days per month), 2 (seasonality of Tokyo wholesale price), 3 (seasonality of number of pullet chicks started), 4 (seasonality of number of laying hens), 5 (seasonality of percentage egg production) and 6 (seasonality of number of eggs produced). B. Projection of pullet chicks started. Various factors are involved in a producer's decision making process to determine the number of baby chicks which will be purchased. Included are such factors as labor return, market outlet, egg price, feed cost and chick cost. Of these factors, egg price and feed cost are greatly influential in the profitability of the enterprise. Thus, it is projected that if egg price or the egg/feed price ratio is high, a producer would order more baby chicks and vice versa. The egg price and egg/feed price ratio occurring two months prior to the actual chick placement were assumed to be the proper ones to use in making calculations. The egg/feed price ratio was equal to: 1. (Y - Y) = a + b (P__14 - P -2) - Y) 3 a + b (B/Fd-14 ' E/Fd_2) -12 2. (v_12 where: Y = monthly number of pullet chicks started "U II monthly Tokyo wholesale egg price E/Fd monthly egg/feed price ratio 35 omm.h~. o...o.. oem.oo. mea.~o. www.mm No..mw ewope>< wo.o mm~.mn. om~.o~. mHo.e.H on..no. oo~.~o 0oH.0o .uoo pn.o mmo.nn. amo.m~. mom.e.. vom.oo. me..oa www.mm .>oz m0.o wem..m. em0.m~. 0mm.m.. n.n.eo. eam.mm moo.mw a HUD pv.w vo..m~. mmm..~. omo.mo. mw~.eo. 5.0.vm www.mm .oen H mH.o mme.m~. mov.n.. www.mo. nom..o. mm..om mem.om .m5< mH.o ma..m~. oon.e.. .Nm.¢o. moa.oo. mmv.om now..m .Hso Sago: one: mcwnoH mo Honesz pH.o me..m~. .no.w.. o.m.mo. o.m.oo. moo.ow awe.nm .::p .n oHnmn nH.o eom.e~. omo.n.. mwm.no. ~.o..o. n.o.om mm~.mm no: nH.o New.eN. omm.o.. ove.mo. omn..o. Non.om omw.0o .Ho< 0H.o moo.¢~. ohm.m.. nmo.~o. mom..o. o.o.om owm.0w .uo: oHan .msosnco:< nH.o nam.e~. omm.m.. mHN.~o. anm.oo. an~..m moo.mm .po. mphwp pcomsonu u uHco w ow.o www.mm. mew.m.. mmm.no. mem..o. mmn.nm n.m.om .cop w ”oouaom H eunuceouem omeuo>< oan m0oH m0mH n0oH 00oH m0oH Hoe» 36 eHan .mzoencoe< "oouaomH e.w0 m.w0 m.w0 0.w0 H.m0 w.v0 n.00 m.n0 o.m0 H.on o.00 n.H0 w.wm oan w.e0 n.H0 0.H0 n.H0 m.w0 w.e0 n.00 m.n0 w.m0 H.on H.00 m.H0 0.nm m0mH H.m0 m.o0 m.o0 n.o0 n.H0 o.v0 w.m0 o.n0 e.m0 m.m0 w.e0 m.wm 0.mm w0mH H.w0 m.mm 0.nm n.0m m.om o.m0 0.e0 v.00 w.w0 m.m0 w.m0 o.om 0.em n0mH m.H0 e.mm 0.0m o.nm w.mm w.m0 w.m0 m.v0 w.n0 o.m0 H.m0 m.wm 0.mm 00mH m.mm w.0m m.mm o.em m.0m H.H0 m.m0 m.m0 m.n0 n.m0 H.e0 v.nm o.wm m0mH omono>< .ooo .>oz .ooo .nem .ms< .Hsp .esp no: .an< .um: .0em .eop noon fine... HcoHuospouo wme omepceoued .m oHnon 37 5m...m mmm.m~ wam.55 emo.e~ 5cm.m~ om5.w. mNe.wH fleece mom.w mo0.w oo0.w 5He.~ ooa.~ 55¢.H meo.H oom.. .oeo .~m.~ mwo.N new.” o.m.. .5m.H .>oz 05m.~ wee.~ mem.~ 5cm.~ N.~.N o~m.~ mom.” «NV.H .900 H 5em.~ 5me.~ m5~.5 .mo.~ 55w.~ eom.~ m.e.. .oom poospona name we honesz oem.~ .«m.~ 5mn.5 moo.~ mmo.. mom.~ on.. .m:< emo.~ ~5m.m Hoe.” 5~H.~ wHo.~ 5Ne.. woo.. .Hso spec: eve.5 omm.~ O5m.N Nwo.~ mmm.. Hom.. eme.. .::p .o mm5.N ~5o.5 ”.m.~ oo~.~ omH.N mmo.H 555.. no: 03...... .C5.N mmo.~ ome.~ omH.N ~H..~ coo.a 555.. .no< eHnoH o5o.~ 0mm.m o5M.N Noo.~ meo.~ omo.H m.5.. .no: name cowHHHE .msosnco:< 5vn.~ moe.5 eefi.~ .om.~ 5mm.H moo.~ .m5.~ mm5.. Noo.H on5.H o~n.~ owm.~ mfie.fi awe.“ .poa pea: w "ouusom H HnoH onoH o0oH w0oH n0oH 00oH m0oH noon 38 a a intercept b = slope -12, -l4, -2 s time difference in number of months A high correlation between Tokyo wholesale egg price and the number of pullet chicks started during months of March through October was observed (Table 10). The same general trend was observed for the relationship between number of pullet chicks started and egg/feed price ratio (Table 11). From these results, egg price and feed cost were not the only influential factors in determining the number of pullet chicks started. In particular, a relatively low correlation was observed for the months of November through February. Characteristics of the Japanese egg industry which may have an influence are: 1. Periodic culling of the laying flock has been the customary practice rather than replacement of the entire flock at one time. 2. A rapidly expanding industry in terms of layer number, eggs produced per hen and egg consumption per capita (Table 1) has been prevalent in the time period selected for analysis in this study. 3. Pullet chick placements have varied seasonally with an average of 12.22 percent of the chicks being started per month in March, April and May while the average for the other nine months was 7.03 percent (Table 6). However, the average monthly number of laying hens only varied from 8.13 to 8.82 percent. 39 Table 10. Relationship between number of pullet chicks started and Tokyo wholesale egg price. Standard Coefficient Error of of Correlation Month Intercept Slope Estimation Determination Coefficient (a) (b) (5.2.) (R2) (r) Jan. 357.7 19.7 885 .2188 0.468 Feb. 170.0 4.6 760 .0372 0.193 Mar. 151.7 10.3 1,031 .4127 0.642 Apr. 371.8 19.5 763 .7710 0.878* May 687.4 89.4 1,190 .6495 0.806* Jun. 1,034.4 42.4 1,257 .4661 0.682 Jul. 1,158.5 48.1 326 .9496 0.975* Aug. 1,090.2 24.9 716 .6532 0.808* Sep. 997.9 66.9 197 .9361 0.968* Oct. -116.5 -86.3 422 .8781 0.937* Nov. 629.7 25.8 734 .1555 0.394 Dec. 259.1 2.3 927 .0029 0.054 *Significant 959.05 40 Table 11. Relationship between number of pullet chicks started and egg/feed price ratio. Standard Coefficient Error of of Correlation Month Intercept Slope Estimation Determ'nation Coefficient (a) (b) (S-E-) (R ) (1‘) Jan. 19,286 451 753 .4245 0.652 Feb. 8,975 208 675 .2410 0.491 Mar. 8,127 149 1,212 .1874 0.433 Apr. 16,281 366 855 .7119 0.844* May 75,666 671 1,200 .6420 0.801* Jun. 34,818 1,078 1,243 .4776 0.669 Jul. 38,535 1,212 132 .9918 0.996* Aug. 22,328 966 779 .5895 0.768+ Sep. 46,395 1,040 135 .9771 0.988* Oct. -60,357 - 189 809 .5533 0.744+ Nov. 31,163 815 526 .4812 0.694 Dec. 13,655 344 830 .1992 0.446 +Significant P10. 10 *Significant p_<_o.os 41 C. Projection of number of layers culled. Statistics on the number of layers culled are not currently available in Japan. Thus, this statistic was estimated from the following equation: Z (X - X+1) + Y-6 where: Z = monthly number of layers culled X = monthly number of layers >< ll number of layers one month later than for X Y = number of pullet chicks started six months earlier than for X The monthly estimate for layers sold is shown in Table 12. From these figures it was obvious that the heaviest culling of the laying flock occurs in the fall months. One explanation for this is that the old hens have to be removed in order to house the new pullets that were started in the late winter and early spring months. The motivations for a producer to cull hens include the hens' productive efficiency as a direct factor and feed cost, baby chick cost and egg price as exogenous factors. Egg price was assumed to be the most influential exogenous factor. The relationship between Tokyo wholesale egg price and number of layers sold was obtained from the following equation: (z_12 - z) = a + b (P_12 - P) where: Z = monthly number of layers culled P = monthly Tokyo wholesale egg price a = intercept 42 mvnwn mammaocu "uwczfl mmH.NH mfim.mfi www.mH man.ofi woo.w ~n~.oH mma.w ave.m onm.oH woo.o~ nmm.m mfia.ofl oamfl amo.- Haw.mH «mo.eH ovu.e~ mam.” mm~.m 0mm.» amm.m oma.m Hmm.w can.» NBH.oH mood NHN.~H NHN.MH ema.m~ Hom.mH 5mm.” mmo.a ooa.o vom.m moH.w awm.o mmm.o~ ooH.m mama hoH.HH coo.HH aom.mm Noo.eH Nom.m nvfi.a NHH.© ewe.“ was.» ”mm.a maa.m amm.w home mma.v wow.a www.mfl Ho4.mH vuo.o ome.m omN.m noH.e wom.o va~.o mmfi.m amm.o coo” omn.m emfl.m MHN.VH moo.v~ mom.w oov.e amo.oH o~e.a oHe.m moa.o ~HH.B mNH.H~ moms H .069 .>oz .uoo .aom .ws< .st .czw .xm: .Ha< .Hmz .nom .cmm Mme» nude: voafiso muoxma mo Hosea: noumswumm .NH oHan 43 b sIOpe ~12 time difference in number of months Only in three months, January, March and April, was there a significant (P:0.05) correlation of Tokyo wholesale price with the number of layers culled (Table 13). In this analysis the inverse relationship observed in the United States (Larzelere, 1972) was not demonstrated in the Japanese data. One explanation for this con- fusing phenomenon may be the management practice of periodic culling. Apparently, hens were culled by egg production efficiency rather than in relation to the Tokyo wholesale egg price. 0. Projection of number of laying hens for 1970 The projection of the number of laying hens was mathematically calculated as follows: 1. z = (x - x+1) + Y_6 2. x+1 = x - (z - Y—a) 3. X 3 x-1 - (2-1 - Y_7) Where: 2 monthly number of layers culled X = monthly number of layers Y = monthly number of pullet chicks started +1, -6, -1, -7 time difference in number of months Two different projections were made. Projection number one was based on calculations using the actual number of laying hens for the previous month; whereas, the second projection was based on calcu- lations using the projected number of laying hens for the previous month. 44 Table 13. Relationship between number of layers culled and Tokyo wholesale egg price. Standard Coefficient Error of of Correlation Month Intercept Slope Estimation Determination Coefficient (a) (b) (5.5.) (R2) (r) Jan. - 591 116 5,202 .6310 0.794* Feb. 357 8 3,066 .0318 0.178 Mar. - 513 - 27 246 .9571 0.978* Apr. 636 ~ 48 728 .7712 0.878* May 405 - 63 2,204 .4121 0.642 Jun. - 306 28 1,847 .2484 0.498 Jul. 1,294 39 2,337 .0320 0.179 Aug. 358 82 1,307 .4060 0.637 Sep. 413 - 6 1,110 .0368 0.192 Oct. 369 40 1,062 .3507 0.592 Nov. 1,283 3 748 .0094 0.097 Dec. 621 63 3,849 .2166 0.465 *Significant P:p.05 45 The percentage difference between actual and projected numbers show the accuracy of the first projection method. Except for January and February, the percentage difference was less than one percent (Table 14). This indicates that if the previous months' number of laying hens is known, the next months' number can be projected with accuracy. To decrease the large percentage differences for January and February, some adjustment by standard errors of layers sold and/or hatch number projections could be made. In the case of the second projection method, where the number of laying hens was projected from a projected number, there was a greater percentage difference between the actual and projected number of laying hens (Table 14). Thus, one difficulty of using a projected figure to project another figure is that inaccuracies are also carried in a serial fashion. Thus, the first inaccuracy is carried to the next projection and so forth. E. Estimation of layer output Egg output per layer is affected by various factors in terms of a short time range and a long time range. Improvements in genetics and poultry husbandry practices are long range factors; whereas, infectious disease outbreaks, weather conditions and age of layers are short range factors. In the future based on the historical data (Table 8), a higher laying rate is expected in the cooler months than the warmer months with yearly laying rate gradually increasing. Thus, in estimation of the Tokyo wholesale egg price fer 1971, the output per layer was assumed to be one percent higher during the 46 Table 14. Projected number of laying hens fer 1970 Actual Projected Percentage Projected Percentage Number Number Difference From Number Difference from Month of Birds of Birds Actual Number of Birds Actual Number Jan. 125,3943 123,446 -1.55 123,446 -1.ss Feb. 124,877 131,408 5.22 129,460 3.67 Mar. 124,965 125,766 0.64 130,349 4.30 Apr. 124,842 124,655 -0.14 130,039 4.16 May 124,906 125,632 0.58 130,829 4.74 Jun. 125,148 124,105 -0.83 130,028 3.89 Jul. 125,178 125,256 0.06 130,136 3.96 Aug. 125,439 125,412 -0.02 130,370 3.93 Sep. 129,794 129,465 -0.25 134,396 3.54 Oct. 131,248 130,204 -0.79 134,806 2.71 Nov. 133,089 131,853 -0.92 135,411 1.74 Dec. 133,253 132,220 -0.77 134,542 0.96 1Based on calculations using the previous month 2 the previous month 3 Unit = thousand birds actual number of laying hens for the Based on calculations using the projected number of laying hens for 47 months September through February and 0.5 percent higher during the months March through August than in 1970. F. Imported and exported eggs. The total monthly supply of eggs in Japan fluctuates with eggs produced, number of laying hens and eggs traded with foreign countries. During the time period of 1965 to 1970, less than 0.1 percent of the Japanese egg production was exported (Anonymous, 1971b). Thus, egg exports were ignored in the various mathematical calcula- tions made in this study. Imported eggs in 1965 were less than 0.1 percent of the domestic egg number; however, this had increased to 1.69 percent in 1968 and 2.02 percent in 1970 (Anonymous, 1971b). Most of the imported eggs were in the frozen liquid form (76.8%) in 1970. As shown in Figure 7, there appears to be a relationship between Tokyo wholesale egg price and the monthly total of imported eggs. Furthermore, it has been reported (Sato, gt_gl:, 1972) that a two month time lag exists from the time of ordering product to arrival of the product in Japan. Thus, the relationship of the Tokyo wholesale egg price to egg imports was evaluated as follows: 1. The two months' earlier Tokyo wholesale egg price to the importation of eggs. 2. Same as 1 except that the import figures would immediately be reduced when the Tokyo wholesale egg price reached 210 yen per kilogram egg. 48 .mmmo panama cououm no name cannons“ aeuou was ouwnn wuo oaemoaocz oxxob mo magmcowueaom .n enamwm onma mom" a z o m < H H 2 < z m H o z o m < H H x < 2 m w 1‘ q d J 4 J 1 d d d d d d a d 4 I u d d q d J L 1 o” om on ow om ovH 00 on” ooH on” on owH omH com om oHN CNN own om oem 0mm ammo uwavwa conoum couponEH .I..II.:I N ooH com ammo coupons“ Hench I.1.I..1. . mmx\:wmv oowun mmo oaamofionz oxxap “ H oHH oowum m CBSZE nonasz mum 49 3. The importation of eggs is related to the same month Tokyo wholesale egg price. The data shown in Table 15 indicate that the imported egg volume in a month has a relationship to the same months' Tokyo whole- sale egg price rather than a time delay of two months. Since the same months' Tokyo wholesale egg price is not known in advance, the use of egg imports in projection analysis becomes difficult. G. Projection of total egg production for 1971. The projected egg production supply was calculated from the following equation: m I! (M x X) x R where: S = monthly number of eggs produced M = number of days in month with adjustment index for difference in days per month of 28 x 1.11 29 x 1.07 30 x 1.03 31 x 1.00 X = monthly number of layers R = monthly rate of lay The projection, as shown in Table 16, ranged from a ~3.72 percent in February to a +2.58 percent in April with four months, March, June, September and October being lower or higher by less than 0.5 percent. 5C) «than.o cmmm.o w.HH moHv.o m.ov- No~.o moeo.o v.wH «Hoo.o m.n~ vHH.o omHo.o e.mH omvH.o H.nH ammo.o Nonv.o n.eH Nonv.o 0.5m- emo.o mmoo.o m.om m~oo.o n.~v ~vo.o mHoo.o m.- mHoo.o H.5m a Hmmv H.m.mv ucoHonmoou :oHuacHEHouoo :oHpeaHumm any new :oHuuHouueu mo mo nouum onon uncououcH acoHuHmmoou enaeqaum Hc.omm unauHmHeuHm.. mo.omm unsoHcHauHm. oH.omm unaUHmHauHm+ .sv omen uxou oomH «voo.o vovv.o m.m oom~.o H.m~n n mwmm uHsaHs camo.o mmmm.o m.m vvnn.o «.mm- N nonoum uouuomEH «mwm.o mnvm.o H.oH «mom.o n.mHn H 4Hmo.o mnmm.o m.oH vnom.o n.H~- m wwwm +Hnm.o mmmm.o H.mH nonn.o ~.~m- N wouhonEH Hench sowm.o momm.o n.w Hmw~.o w.wHu H a Huey H.m.mv Ha. H V coHua:HEHouoo coauaaaumm a ucoHuHmmoou . . . coHuqssmm< :oHuaHouuou me we nonum onon unmoueucH H unoHonmoou vhmvcaum oan .mmmo vHscHH cououm cophomeH no mmmo momH oeuuomEH Hmuou on» can ooHna umo oHamoHozz oxxOH coozuon mHnmcoHpmHom .mH oHnmh 51 Table 16. Projected number of eggs produced by month in 1971 as compared to the actual numbers reported. Projected Actual Number Number Percentage Month Eggs Produced Eggs Produced Difference Jan. 2,4191 2,469 -2.02 Feb. 2,508 2,605 -3.72 Mar. 2,687 2,679 0.29 Apr. 2,858 2,782 2.58 May 2,781 2,759 0.79 Jun. 2,735 2,725 0.36 Jul. 2,698 2,634 2.42 Aug. 2,610 2,549 2.39 Sep. 2,613 2,623 -0.38 Oct. 2,603 2,608 -0.19 Nov. 2,608 2,683 —2.79 Dec. 2,646 2,593 2.04 1Unit million eggs 52 H. Estimation of demand. Demand for a product is assumed to be primarily determined by price, quantity of supply, consumer diSposable income and population. To determine the demand curve for eggs, the relationship between per capita egg consumption and Tokyo wholesale egg price was examined. The consumer disposable income was not considered because the income elasticity of demand for eggs was 0.35135 in 1963 (Anonymous, 1971b). The Tokyo wholesale egg price was adjusted to the "real" price by using the wholesale price index (Anonymous, 1971f). The relationship between per capita egg consumption and Tokyo wholesale egg price was examined according to the following equation: = a + b 9_ N where: P = Tokyo wholesale egg price average for the year W = wholesale price index Q = total egg consumption per year N = human population a = intercept b = slope The relationship was examined for the years 1960 through 1966 and the years 1966 through 1970 and is shown in Figure 8. From the two demand curves, it is observed that the demand for eggs in Japan has become more inelastic. From the 1966 through 1970 demand curve, each years‘ price elasticity was calculated according to Schneider (1962) and was: 53 .coHuaESmcoo mmo muHmmu you paw ouHHm mmo onmoHonz oxxOH woumomvw coozuon chmcoHumHom .w opsmHu Hmmwm .ocv :OHuaesmcoo mwo muHowu pom omm oom omm oom omH ooH om H _ H _ H _ _ 1. 00H 1. 05H IL owH .1 omH 1 com (Bx/uaX) aoixd 383 atesatoqm OKXOL S4 Year Price Elasticity 1966 -4.55 1967 -3.55 1968 -3.33 1969 -2.80 1970 -2.57 Thus, year after year the Tokyo wholesale egg price and per capita consumption relationship has become more inelastic. However, despite this trend, the price elasticity has not reached the level of a one to one relationship. As shown in Table 1, per capita egg consumption has been increasing--44 eggs in 1967, 14 eggs in 1968, 28 eggs in 1969 and 19 eggs in 1970. However, this statistic as a per capita consumption figure is somewhat misleading because it is calculated as: total eggs produced + imported eggs - exported eggs = per capita total human consumption consumption It was assumed that all eggs taken to the market place are consumed. In the price prediction model of Larzelere (1971b) egg consumption is estimated from the trend in the level of total egg production. The calculations to obtain the trend by using the 12 months' moving average technique is as follows (Spurr and Bonini, 1967): 1=~6 where: A = a 12 month average xi = egg production number in a certain month time difference in months I 0‘ II 55 The projected egg production level for 1971, shown in Figure 9, is an extrapolated line from the calculated total monthly egg produc- tion trend line for 1969 and 1970. Using an estimated human population [formulaz human population = (31.11 + 1.03 x last two digits of the year) x 1,000,000], the average egg production of 2,633,000,000 eggs equals 303 eggs per capita in consumption exclusive of imported eggs. At 2 percent, as in 1970, imported eggs would increase the per capita consumption to 312 eggs in 1971. I. Seasonality adjustment and standard deviation. Price seasonality was examined in terms of monthly price fluctuations during the 1965 through 1970 six year period. The 12 months' moving average technique was utilized and the calculations were made according to the following equations: 5 1. FS=87(Z 51:12) =-6 5 2 P = Z P . - 12 m . a1 1=-6 3 P = P - F c m s 4 F = P - P p c a where: F = monthly seasonal factor associated with egg supply 8 = monthly number of eggs produced Pm = monthly Tokyo wholesale egg price average for a year Pc = monthly calculated Tokyo wholesale egg price Fp = monthly seasonal factor associated with Tokyo whole egg price P = monthly actual Tokyo wholesale egg price 56 oabHo> :oHuosvoum mmo :H ncoup .o ousuHm HSH PSH momH H—H-_fi—HH4HdHHHH4HHH JHHqfi-H NHHHoHoohcmvnNHNHHHonmhomvnNHNHHHonwhemanH « H H . . _ . HsmH you ocHH 1 H593 H6360 no.5 -III I I I ocHH peek» :oHuosvoun mum 8.3 83 8~.~ com.“ 623 com." SEN 62.“ oow.N (uottttm) peenpoad $883 S7 The average of the monthly seasonal factor for the Tokyo wholesale egg price with the standard deviation is presented in Table 17. The yearly average of the Tokyo wholesale egg price (Fe) for 1971 was estimated from the monthly Tokyo wholesale egg price average for a year (Pm). Since the yearly averages for "Pm" in 1969 and 1970 were both 190 yen per kilogram eggs, the estimate used for 1971 was 190 yen per kilogram eggs. J. Projection of Tokyo wholesale egg price. The monthly Tokyo wholesale egg price was projected using the data presented about supply and demand of eggs in the previous nine sections of the chapter entitled, "Egg Price Prediction Model for Japan." The mathematical procedure for this monthly price projection was as follows: > 3. 1> = E 1 n= : 5.0.) 13 c P > where: P5 = monthly projected seasonal factor associated with egg supply 5 = monthly projected number of eggs produced 0 = monthly projected total egg consumption level PC = monthly projected calculated Tokyo wholesale egg price Pl = monthly projected egg price level P = monthly projected Tokyo wholesale egg price 58 Table 17. Monthly seasonality factor for the Tokyo wholesale egg price. Seasonal Standard Month Factor Deviation Jan. - 6 :16 Feb. 17 :15 Mar. 23 :12 Apr. 5 i 7 May '14 i 8 Jun. -20 i 8 Jul. -27 i 8 Aug. -18 :11 Sep. 1 :10 Oct. 1 :12 Nov. 9 :12 Dec. 30 127 59 Fp = monthly seasonal factor associated with Tokyo wholesale egg price 5.0. = standard deviation Three separate calculations were made for the 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price projection and included: 1. A method utilizing the actual egg production number and the actual Tokyo wholesale price to project layers culled and pullet chicks started--Figure 10 and Appendix Table 7. 2. A method utilizing the actual Tokyo wholesale egg price but employing a projected egg production number--Figure 11 and Appendix Table 8. 3. A method utilizing the actual egg production number and actual Tokyo wholesale egg price until December, 1970, with projected figures being utilized from December, 1970, forward--Figure 12 and Appendix Table 9. As shown in Table 18 and Figures 10, 11 and 12, the projec- tion of the 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price wasrelatively close to the actualprice, regardless of calculation method, except for the two, two month periods of March-April and August—September. The prediction models generally over-predicted price during the first six months of the year and under-predicted price during the last six months of the year. One explanation for the March-April discrepancy observed between predicted and actual price may have been an unusual increase 60 H conuoen-ouHua umo .a.m ooHuu voueonoum ooHum Husuo< ‘ d oHemoHonz oxxoh HsmH we :oHpoonoum d q coco: h H . .oH ousuHa omH ooH 05H owH ooH oou oHN cum omN (fix/uaX) eotad 883 etesetoqu oXxoL 1.-“ ’ F‘iflilifie N vogu051100Hua mun oHemoHonz oxxoa HhmH mo :oHuuonoam .HH ouauHm Hugo: 61 .tTOt . H H ._. H z .__ _. H H H H H H 1 omH 1 ooH rm 1 2H m. 0 M u. 1 omH m. 9 s m. 4 SH 9 9 an Ifi 3 1 con.m HI. 3 9 1 O3 01 9 u t V .o.m \ I cum mw \ ooHnm H.306 no.5 1| I .l. 1 own ouHum Hanuu< H. 62 n magnesioufla mmo oHumoHoHHz 05—8. :2 me 5300 “PE 5:0: .o.m serum @300 “one 1 I I I l 3 Hum H252 _ .NH owsuHm SH 03 05H owH omH com oHN 03 9mm (fix/119A) and 889 etesetoqu 0411c; 63 Table 18.- Tokyo wholesale egg price, predicted vs. actual price difference according to method of calculation in 1971. Projected Price--Actua1 Price Prediction Method Closest to Actual Price Actual Month Price Method 1 Method 2 Method 3 1 vs. 3 2 vs. 3 1 vs. 2 (yen) (yen) (yen) (yen) (Method No.) (Method No.) (Method No.) Jan. 183 7 11 11 1 - 1 Feb. 195 - 3 5 5 l - 1 Mar. 186 17 17 17 - - - Apr. 166 19 14 13 3 3 2 May 160 7 6 4 3 3 2 Jun. 160 3 3 1 3 3 - Jul. 161 2 - 2 - 4 1 2 - Aug. 192 -13 -18 -20 1 2 1 Sep. 221 -29 -28 -28 3 - 2 Oct. 203 ~ 4 - 3 - 5 1 2 2 Nov. 208. - 6 - l - 2 3 2 2 Dec. 223 6 2 4 3 2 2 Monthly Average 188.2 0.5 0.5 -0.3 64 in the number of eggs received in Tokyo. In March-April, 1971, 14 percent more eggs were received in Tokyo than for the same time period in 1970. This egg volume was also reflected in egg price because the average Tokyo wholesale egg price for March and April of 1965 through 1970 was 205 and 178 yen, respectively; whereas, in 1971 the price was 186 (March) and 166 (April) yen. During the August-September, 1971, time period, the average Tokyo wholesale egg price was 192 (August) and 221 (September) yen which was considerably higher than the average price for March (179) and April (203) of 1965 through 1970. This unusually high price apparently resulted from a shortage of supply possibly brought about by an increase in force-molting (Anonymous, 1972d) and a typhoon hitting Southern Japan in early September which interrupted egg transportation (Anonymous, l971g). DISCUSSION In this price prediction model, the projected egg price was calculated from ten variables (Figure 6). The relationships between the variables were obtained from five fundamental statistics-—Tokyo wholesale egg price, number of pullet chicks started, number of laying hens, percentage egg production and number of eggs produced. The use of these statistics resulted in a projected Tokyo wholesale egg price which was relatively close to the actual price (Figures 10, 11 and 12). The prediction model generally over-predicted price during the first six months of the year and under-predicted price during the last six months of the year. Perhaps, this model could be improved by including other statistics, such as, number of culled hens, percentage of force-melted hens, egg storage stock level and processed egg volume. Unfortunately, at the present time, these statistics are not available in Japan. Statistics about monthly pullet chicks started are currently released on a two month delayed basis. Further, the revised number for January through June is issued September of the same year and the revised number for July through December is issued in March of the following year. The monthly statistics for egg price, number of laying hens, percentage egg production and number of eggs produced 65 66 are released four times (March, June, September and December) yearly on a three month delay baiss. Other statistics, such as egg produc- tion by prefecture and egg movement to the major markets, are released on a three to 12 month delayed basis. Thus, the time delay in release of data creates an egg price projection problem. A monthly release of the previous months' statistical data would improve egg price prediction procedures in Japan. Another problem which exists is the publication of statistical data at irregular intervals by various private and public agricul- tural organizations. A more regular publication procedure would benefit companies routinely predicting egg price in Japan. Despite the limitations imposed by statistical data avail- ability, the price prediction model developed can be used by various egg industry businesses to predict price trends; thereby, increasing their knowledge for baby chick sales potential. In order to utilize the developed price prediction model in the future, it must be constantly evaluated for accuracy. Only data from the six years, 1965 through 1970, were used in this study because of the major industry changes which had occurred (see Table l on the general statistics of the Japanese poultry industry). Undoubtedly, more changes will occur in the future; and of prime importance will be: 1. The growth rate of layer numbers vs. consumption vs. human population. 67 The periodic culling practice which may disappear as the "all-in, all-out" prOgram of layer replacement gains in popularity in the controlled environment housing currently being constructed. The Tokyo wholesale egg price in terms of being a repre- sentative egg price for Japan. Although Tokyo is the single largest market, other local markets exist. The Tokyo market movement of eggs sometimes exaggerates the actual supply- demand situation. The price elasticity of demand. If the price elasticity of demand becomes highly inelastic, accurate projection of supply becomes very critical in accurate prediction of price. SUMMARY The main objective of this study was to develop a long range monthly egg price prediction model for use by the Japanese egg industry. The historical data used was for the six year time period of 1965 through 1970, and included Tokyo wholesale egg price (yen/ kilogram eggs), egg/feed (yen/20 kilogram bag of feed) price ratio, pullet chicks started, number of laying hens, number of laying hens sold, percentage egg production and imported and exported eggs. In addition, seasonality factors, demand situation, projected figures on egg price and egg numbers were calculated for use in the price projection model. Variables examined in terms of projeCtion feasibility and accuracy were: 1. Pullet chicks started was projected in relation to the Tokyo wholesale egg price occurring two months prior to the actual chick placement. The correlation value obtained indicates that there was a relatively high correlation during the months March through October but a relatively low correlation November through February. The correlation between number of pullet chicks started and egg/feed price ratio showed less importance than the egg price-pullet chicks started relation. 68 69 Layer number culled was estimated from the monthly difference of laying hen numbers and the number of pullet chicks started six months previously. This figure was estimated because of a lack of published data. The relationship of estimated layer number sold and the Tokyo wholesale egg price, both occurring in the same month, was calculated. The correlation value was significant (P50.05) in only three of the 12 monthly values calculated.. Thus, the importance of actual figures is emphasized and suggests that the number of layers culled be added to the list of statistical data collected about the Japanese egg industry. Demand situation which was determined from the relationship of per capita egg consumption and the Tokyo wholesale egg price. The relationship was compared for the years 1960 through 1966 and the years 1966 through 1970. The demand for eggs in Japan apparently become more inelastic with the price elasticity being -4.55 in 1966 and -2.57 in 1970. If this change continues and demand becomes more inelastic, accurate projection of supply becomes very critical in accurate projection of price. Price seasonality which was examined in terms of monthly price fluctuations by the 12 months' moving average tech- nique. Negative factors were calculated for January, May, June, July and August with positive factors being calculated for the other seven months. 70 Three projection methods to predict the 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price were compared to check the accuracy of the projection model. The first method utilized the actual egg production number and the actual Tokyo wholesale egg price to project the number of layers culled and the number of pullet chicks started. The second method utilized the actual Tokyo wholesale egg price but a projected egg production number was employed. The third method utilized pro- jected figures for egg production number and egg price and is the method which would have to be utilized if the egg price in the fUture 18 months is to be predicted. Comparison of graphic presentations of the three methods indicate that the third method can be adequately utilized to predict the future Tokyo wholesale egg price in Japan. LITERATURE CITED LITERATURE CITED Anonymous, 1971a. Keiran tokei. Zenkoku Keiran Kakaku Antei Kikin. Anonymous, 1971b. Poket chikusan toke. Norin Tokei, Kyokai (Tokyo). Anonymous, 1971c. Noshon bukka chingin chosa. Nihon Norinsho. Anonymous, 1971d. Niwatori hina fuka ushu. Nihon Norinsho. Anonymous, 1971e. Seikei mesu ushu to keiran seisanryo chosa. Nihon Norinsho. Anonymous, 1971f. International Financial Statistics, Vol. 24, No. 12, pp. 206-207. International Monetary Fund} Washington, D.C. Anonymous, 1971g. Osaka shikyo. Niwatori No Kenkyu 11:44. Anonymous, 1972a. Keiran ryutsu jittai chosa hokoku. Nikkei Jiho No. 16. Nihon Norinsho. Anonymous, 1972b. Sairankei shiyo no jittai. Nikkei jiho, 17:32-47. Anonymous, 1972c. Oroshiuri bukka shisu. Yokei Kankei Tokei Shiryo, Nihon Ginko. Anonymous, 1972d. Kyosei kanu 12.7%. Keimei Shimbun, July issue, p. 6. Gerra, M. J., 1959. The demand, supply and price structure for eggs. Technical Bul. No. 1204, Agricultural Marketing Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. Gould, J. S., 1970. Factors influencing daily wholesale egg quota- tions in the New York market. Bul. 1028, Cornell University Agricultural Experiment Station, Ithaca, New York. Larzelere, H. E., 1971a. Blend price at farm for all eggs from flocks laying during the listed periods. MimeOgraph, Agricultural Economics Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48823. 71 72 Larzelere, H. E., 1971b. Special problem in egg price prediction. Agricultural Economics 882, Agricultural Economics Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48823. Larzelere, H. E., 1972. Personal communication. Unpublished data. Agricultural Economics Department, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan 48823. Masters, G. C. and H. B. Jones, Jr., 1970. Predicting short run egg price changes in Georgia. Research Bul. 80, University of Georgia, College of Agriculture Experiment Stations, Athens, Georgia. Sato, T., T. Nishimura, V. Nishimura, N. Shimizu, H. Chigusa. 1972. Zenhanren to tamago. Niwatori No Kenkyu 4:106-114. Schneider, E., 1962. Pricing and Equilibrium, p. 23. Unwin University Books, London, England. Siebert, J. B., 1969. Review and analysis of California egg prices. Information Series No. 68-6, University of California Agri- cultural Extension Service, Berkeley, California. Smith, D. A., 1969. Short run New England large brown shell egg price predictors. Unpublished M.S. Thesis, University of New Hampshire. Quoted in Smith, D.A. and R. L. Christensen, 1970. Short run shell egg price estimated models: The New England region of the United States. Mimeograph of paper presented at the 14th World's Poultry Congress, Madrid, Spain. Smith, D. A. and R. L. Christensen, 1970. Short run shell egg price estimated models: The New England region of the United States. Mimeograph of paper presented at the 14th World's Poultry Congress, Madrid, Spain. Spurr, W. A. and C. P. Bonini, 1967. Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions. Richard D. Irwin, Inc., Homewood, Illinois. Sugiyama, M., 1971. Nihon no sairan yokei keiei no keizai teki toku shitsu. Niwatori No Kenkyu 6:116-123. I I II. 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Table A9. Flock Size, Month Before (thousand) Estimated Cull No. Month Before (thousand) S.E. Estimated Hatch No. 7 Months Before (thousand) S.E. Number of Difference Adjusted Difference Number Projected Flock Size (thousand) Estimated Laying Rate (8) Projected Egg Production (million) Estimated Average Egg Consumption (million) Estimated Price Level (yen) Calculated Price (yen) Seasonal Factor in Price (yen) Projected Egg Price (yen) Actual Egg Price (yen) Difference, Projected-Actual (yen) 81 Jan. 133,253 12,s93 : 3,849 12,044 1,257 H- - S49 - 549 132,704 58.4 2,419 2,610 .9268 185 ~6i16 194:16 183 +11 Feb. 132,704 13,191 x 5,202 10,278 2 326 2,913 - 2,000 130,704 61.9 2,508 2,610 .9609 185 193 +7i15 200:15 195 + 5 Month Mar. 130,704 9,490 H- 3,066 9,520 i 716 - 30 - 30 130,674 66.3 2,689 2,610 1.0302 185 180 +23t12 203:12 186 +17 Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price--method 3. Apr. 130,677 9,715 i 246 10,200 i 197 + 485 + 485 131,162 70.5 2,867 2,630 1.0901 190 174 17917 166 +13 82 Table A9. Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price-~method 3 (continued) Flock Size, Month Before (thousand) Estimated Cull No. Month Before (thousand) S.E. Estimated Hatch No. 7 Months Before (thousand) S.E. Number of Difference Adjusted Difference Number Projected Flock Size (thousand) Estimated Laying Rate (8) Projected Egg Production (million) Estimated Average Egg Consumption (million) Estimated Price Level (yen) Calculated Price (yen) Seasonal Factor in Price (yen) Projected Egg Price (yen) Actual Egg Price (yen) Difference, Projected-Actual (yen) May 131,162 11,461 i 728 10,751 H- 422 - 710 710 130,452 69.3 2,803 2,630 1.0657 190 178 ~14: 8 164: 8 160 + 4 Jun. 130,452 9,157 : 2,204 10,085 i 734 + 928 + 928 131,380 67.8 2,761 2,630 1.0498 190 181 ~20: 8 161: 8 160 + 1 Month Jul. 131,380 8,508 H- 1,847 9,038 H- 927 + 530 + 530 131,910 66.6 2,723 2,640 1.0314 190 184 ~27: 8 157: 8 161 - 4 Aug. 131,910 11,944 3 2,337 10,673 H- 885 1,271 - 1,271 130,639 65.1 2,636 2,640” ' .9984 190 190 -18111 172111 192 ~20 83 Table A9. Projection of 1971 Tokyo wholesale egg price~~method 3 (continued) Month Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Flock Size, Month Before 130,639 132,639 133,592 134,520 (thousand) Estimated Cull No. Month 9,303 16,714 15,660 16,784 Before (thousand) ‘ S.E. 3 1,307 3 1,110 1 1,062 i 748 Estimated Hatch No. 7 Months 13,227 17,667 17,516 15,934 Before (thousand) S.E. i 760 1 1,031 3 763 t 1,190 NUmber of Difference + 3,924 + 953 + 1,856 ~ 850 Adjusted Difference Number + 2,000 + 953 + 928 ~ 850 Projected Flock Size 132,639 133,592 134,520 133,670 (thousand) Estimated Laying Rate (%) 63.7 63.2 62.9 63.4 Projected Egg Production 2,619 2,617 2,623 2,627 (million) Estimated Average Egg 2,640 2,650 2,650 2,650 Consumption (million) .9920 .9875 .9898 .9913 Estimated Price Level (yen) 190 195 195 195 Calculated Price (yen) 192 197 197 197 Seasonal Factor in Price +1310 +1112 +9312 +30127 (yen) Projected Egg Price (yen) 193510 198112 206112 227127 Actual Egg Price (yen) 221 203 208 223 Difference, Projected-Actual ~28 ~ 5 ~ 2 + 4 (yen) S "71111111111111111111111111114111171111s