URBAN ENCROACHMENT 0N. AGRICULTURAL LAND IN EAST ASIA: THE JAPAN. MODEL Thesis for the Degree of M. A. MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY MICHAEL ARTHUR GRAFF 1971 ‘: g mSIIIG BY ' me & WE. I ABSTRACT URBAN ENCROACHMENT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND IN EAST ASIA: THE JAPAN MODEL BY Michael Arthur Graff The processes and elements involved in urban expan- sion have received considerable attention in recent decades. Urban population growth attributable to natural increase and migration, and associated increases in the amount of land devoted to residential and industrial uses have led to increases in the areal extent of urban centers. A large portion of these increases involved the conversion of agri- cultural land to urban uses. A study of the eastern part of the United States, for example, indicates that between 1910 and 1959 approximately 16,000,000 acres of farm land were taken out of production due to the expansion of cities.* Studies of urban expansion in other developed nations sub- stantiate the pervasive nature of the phenomenon of urban encroachment on agricultural land. The situation in deve10ping nations is uncertain due to the limited amount of information that is available. While data related to agricultural characteristics and farm Michael Arthur Graff population can be easily obtained, data related to urban growth is either of limited usefulness or not available. There are indications, however, that urban expansion at the expense of agricultural land has occurred. Consider- ation is given to the implications of urban encroachment on agricultural land for economic develOpment in the de- veloping nations. It is concluded that responsible govern- ment officials and agencies are either unconcerned about, or unaware of the problems that may arise as a result of the removal of agricultural land from production. In the absence of data related to urban growth in the developing nations a set of variables that can be used to identify and distinguish between urban and agricultural areas and indicate areas of transition was derived. Using 1965 data for the prefectures of Japan forty-six variables measuring urban and agricultural characteristics were sub- mitted to both factor analysis and discriminant analysis. The factor analysis yielded seven factors representing distinct urban and agricultural qualities. The prefectures were grouped on the basis of the factor scores and discrim- inant analysis was then used to test the appropriateness of the groupings. Five groups were identified representing a distinct urban-agricultural dichotomy within the country. In addition, two prefectures were identified that show strong signs of being in a transitional stage between agri- cultural and urban status. Michael Arthur Graff On the basis of the results of the analysis it was concluded that the variables selected are well suited to the task of identifying and distinguishing between urban and agricultural areas. Further study of the problem of urban encroachment on agricultural land and testing of the variable set are recommended. * John Fraser Hart, "Loss and Abandonment of Cleared Farm Land in the Eastern United States," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 58:417-440, September, 1968. URBAN ENCROACHMENT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND IN EAST ASIA: THE JAPAN MODEL BY Michael Arthur Graff A THESIS Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS Department of Geography 1971 LIST OF LIST OF CHAPTER I. II. III. IV. TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLES O O O C O O O O O O O O FIGURES C O O O O O O O O O O 0 PART I. PROCESS AND IMPLICATION INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . POPULATION GROWTH . . . . . . . URBAN EXPANSION . . . . . . . . Sinclair's Model . . . . . . Metropolitan Tidal Wave . . . Supporting Studies . . . . . Urban Expansion in Developing IMPLICATIONS . . . . . . . . . The Problem . . . . . . . . . Solutions . . . . . . . . . . The Implication . . . . . . . The Record in Other Countries A Hypothetical Projection . . Results of the Simulation . . TAIWAN, KOREA AND JAPAN . . . . Population Increase . . . . . Cultivated Area . . . . . . . Food Production . . . . . . . Farm Production . . . . . . . Urban Change . . . . . . . . Summary . . . . . . . . . . . Nations Page iii iv 12 13 18 29 35 35 36 43 45 48 54 60 62 65 76 81 85 95 CHAPTER I. JAPAN: PART II. THE JAPAN MODEL A CASE STU DY O O O O O O O O POpulation Change . . . . . . . Population Change in the Kobe-Osaka Area Change in Cultivated Area . . . . II. FACTOR ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS . . . III. DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS Reassignment of Prefectures . . . The Semi—Industrial Group . . . . Evaluation and Conclusion . . . . IV. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS . . Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . Recommendations . . . . . . . . . APPENDICES . APPENDIX APPENDIX APPENDIX APPENDIX APPENDIX APPENDIX SIMULATION PROGRAM AND DATA FACTOR ANALYSIS AND DISCRIM- INANT ANALYSIS . . . . . . . DEFINITION OF VARIABLES . . ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS . . FACTOR SCORES . . . . . . GROUPS DERIVED THROUGH DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS . . . ii Page 97 100 103 109 115 132 134 137 140 150 150 155 158 158 163 177 181 186 189 Table 1. 11. 12. 13. 14. LIST OF TABLES Simulation: Agricultural Production and Population in Country X . . . . . . . . POpulation, Growth Rate, and Density Per Hectare of Cultivated Land . . . . . . Cultivated Land, Farm Households, and Ratio of Land to Households . .‘. . . . . . Rice Production: Total Yield, Yield Per Hectare, and Yield Per Person . . . . . Farm Population, Farm Household Population Density, and the Ratio of Farm Population to Total Population in Percent . . . . . . Urban Population and Percent of Population Classified Urban; Urban Area and Percent of Area Classified Urban . . . . . . . . . Japan: Population by Prefecture, 1955-1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Kobe-Osaka Area: Population 1955-1965 . . Japan: Urban Area by Prefecture, 1955-1968 Japan: Cultivated Area by Prefecture, 1955-1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Factors and PrOportion of Total Variance Accounted for by Each Factor . . . . . . . Prefectural Groupings Based on Factor scores 0 O O O O O O O O O O 0 O 0 O O O 0 Coefficients of Linear Discriminant Functions 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 0 Five Groups Derived Through Discriminant Analysis of Factor Scores . . . . . . . . . iii Page 55 63 66 77 83 87 101 104 110 111 116 130 133 135 LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Suburban Area South of Taipei City, Taiwan, September, 1967 . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 2. Suburban Area South of Taipei City, Taiwan, January, 1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3. A Hillside Terraced Almost to the TOp Near Mu Shan, Taipei, Hsien, Taiwan, OCtOber' 1967 O O O O O O I O O O O O O O O O O 69 4. Cultivated Land in the Bed of the Chung Chiang River Near Nan Chuang, Miao-Li Hsien, Taiwan, October, 1967 . . . . . . . . . 69 5. Japan, 1956-1968: Population, Cultivated Land, and Cultivated Land Per Thousand Population 0 O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O 74 6. Cultivated Land Removed From Production by Natural Disasters and Artificial Dilapidation, 1958-1968 . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 7. Japan: Prefectures and Major Cities . . . . . 99 8. Percentage Change in the Population of Selected Localities on an East-West Line in the Kobe-Osaka Area, 1955-60, 1960-65 0 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o 107 9. Factor Scores: The Urban Factor . . . . . . . 119 10. Factor Scores: The Agricultural Employ- ment Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 ll. Factor Scores: The Grain Factor . . . . . . . 124 12. Factor ScOres: The Farm Factor . . . . . . . . 124 13. Five Groups Derived Through Discriminant Analysis of Factor Scores . . . . . . . . . . . 142 iv Figure Page 14. Japan: Changes in Population, Cultivated Area and Cultivated Land Per Thousand Population . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 URBAN ENCROACHMENT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND IN EAST ASIA: THE JAPAN MODEL PART I PROCESS AND IMPLICATION URBAN ENCROACHMENT ON AGRICULTURAL LAND CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION The decade of the 1960's was a period of great pro- gress in the field of economic development. The activities undertaken in the pursuit of develOpment ranged from modest national plans to extensive international cooperation ven- tures and associations. Some of the international associa- tions, to be sure, were outgrowths or continuations of or- ganizations formed at earlier times and some of them passed out of existence during the 1960's. Most of them, however, were heavily involved in the development efforts carried out in various parts of the world. In western Europe the European Economic Community and EurOpean Free Trade Associa- tion became functional and made considerable progress in reducing trade barriers and advancing regional cooperation among their respective members. In the Americas the Alli- ance for Progress was formed in 1961 and attempted to im- prove economic conditions in the Latin American nations. Africa and the Middle East witnessed the formation of the East African Federation and the United Arab Republic. Asia too, saw the establishment of several regional organizations. The Asian Development Bank was capitalized with support from industrialized and developing nations alike in order to provide funds for national economic development projects. In 1966, the Asian and Pacific Council was formed as a re- gional consultative body. One of the oldest organizations that is still active is the Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East which was created under the auspices of the United Nations in 1946. Its mission was, and still is, to advise member nations and assist them in the formulation of national and international development plans. The largest and most widely discussed project it has initiated is the multi-national Mekong River Development Plan which has in- volved the technical and financial cooperation of more than twenty nations.1 The organizations mentioned, as well as many others, have as their primary reason for existence the promotion of economic development. They have been complemented in their efforts by the work done in formulating and implementing individual development plans in their respective member na- tions. The development activity has not been without its problems, however. Almost every nation and organization has encountered political, economic or social difficulties. lC. Hart Schaaf, and Russel H. Fifield, The Lower Mekon (Princeton, New Jersey: D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc., 1 3 ; Willard A. Hanna, "The Mekong Project," (seven parts), American Universities Field Staff Reports, Southeast Asia Series, Vol. 16, Nos. 10-14, 16, and 17; Gilbert F. White, "The Mekong River Plan," Scientific American, April, 1963, pp. 49-59. Most of the difficulties encountered have been unique to a particular nation or organization. But one, population growth and associated urban expansion, has been common to virtually all of them. Population growth by itself, and many of its ramif- ications in both developed and developing nations, has re- ceived widespread and increasing attention in the past de- cade.2 Urban expansion has also received considerable at- tention from geographers.particularly in the developed na- tions.3 In these discussions, however, little attention is given to the accompanying removal of agricultural land from production by urban encroachment.4 Even less attention has been given to the implications for economic development con— tained within this concomitant phenomenon. Studies of ur- ban expansion, while numerous, tend to concentrate on 2Georg Borgstrom, Too Many (New York: Macmillan Co., 1969); Ronald Freedman (ed. , Population: The Vital Revolu— tion (Garden City, New York : Doubleday and Co., 1964); Paul 'R. Ehrlich, "Too Many People," The Environmental Handbook, Garrett de Bell, editor (New York: Ballantine Books, Inc., 1970). PP. 219-232. 3Jean Gottmann and Robert A. Harper (eds.), Metrop- olis on the Move: Geographers Look at Urban Sprawl (New York: John WiIey and Sons, Inc., 19673; Lawrence G. Wolf, "The Metropolitan Tidal Wave in Ohio; 1900-2000," Economic Geo ra h , 45:133-154, April, 1969; George S. Wehrwein, "The RuraI Urfian Fringe," Economic Geography, 18 217-228, July, 1942. 4For example, Borgstrom, op. cit., p. 312, devotes two paragraphs out of over 300 pages of text to the topic. The discussion in Gottmann, op. cit., pp. 57-66, is centered on how best to plan for the urban absorption of agricultural land rather than on the effects of its removal from produc- tion. describing the process involved in the eXpansion of urban areas and the decline of agricultural activity on the urban fringe.5 The removal of agricultural land from production is more often than not passed over as being little more than an interesting side effect of expansion. This shortcoming may be due, in part, to the fact that most studies center on the developed nations where the role of agriculture in the economy is decidedly second to that of industry. It may also be due to the fact that many of the investigations in— volve nations that still have unused lands far from urban centers to which agriculture can be shifted as the cities expand. Consequently, concern for the fate of agricultural land near expanding urban centers has been minimal. Concern for the preservation of agricultural land near the urban centers in the more densely pOpulated developing nations has been even less evident. The purpose of this study is to investigate the im- plications for economic development of the removal of 5Paul F. Griffin and Ronald L. Chatham, "Urban Im- pact on Agriculture in Santa Clara County, California," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 48: 195- 208, September, 1958; R. G. Colledge;_"SydneyTsMetropolitan Fringe: A Study in Urban-Rural Relations," The Australian Geographer, 7:243-255, February, 1960; Rodney Steiner, IrRe- served Lands and the Supply of Space for the Southern Cali- fornia Metropolis," The Geogra hical Review, 56: 344-362, July, 1966; Lorne H. Russwurm, Expanding Urbanization and Selected Agricultural Elements: Case Study, Southwestern Ontario," Land Economics, 43:101-107, February, 1967; Wehrwein, op. cit., footnote 2. agricultural land from production by urban encroachment. I will focus on one develOped and two developing nations, Japan, Taiwan and Korea, examining each of these nations in turn.6 The emphasis of my investigation will be on their growing populations, expanding urban areas and the effects of this growth on agricultural land. I will show that while data related to the farming population and cultivated area of each country are available in considerable detail, simi- lar data concerning urban population and urban areas are comparatively lacking. The implications of this shortage will be explored. Finally, I will attempt to identify a set of variables that can be used to distinguish agricultur- al, urban and transitional areas within a country using multivariate analysis. 6More precisely, the forty-six Prefectures of Japan included in the 1965 census, Taiwan Province, Republic of China, and the eleven southernmost provinces of Korea which constitute the Republic of Korea. Throughout the discussion each of these areas will be referred to simply as Japan, Taiwan, or Korea. The uncertain futures of Taiwan and Korea are recognized, but the possible effects of reunifica- tion with their respective counterpart nations will not be considered here. Therefore, each will be treated as a sep- arate and distinct economic unit. Similarly, the effects on the Japanese economy that might flow from the reunifica- tion of Okinawa and the Kurile Islands with Japan will not Ibe included in this study. CHAPTER II POPULATION GROWTH Since World War II the developing nations have ex- perienced rapid increases in population. The primary fac- tor contributing to the accelerated population growth has been a decline in death rates induced by the spread of mod- ern medical, sanitation and pest control practices. While death rates have declined birth rates have remained at lev- els similar to those that prevailed before World War II. The net result has been an increase in population size. The operation of this process is exemplified by the exper- ience of one Asian island country, Ceylon. 7Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich, Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecoloqu(San Francisco, Cali- fornia: W. H. Freeman and‘Co., 1970), pp. 20-23; George J. Stolnitz, "The Demographic Transition: From High to Low Birth Rates and Death Rates," Population: The Vital Revo- lution, Ronald Freedman, editor (Garden City, New York: DoubIeday and Co., Inc., 1964), pp. 30-46. It should be kept in mind that though the emphasis here is placed on mod- ern developing nations, the develOped nations also experi- enced changes in their birth and death rates during their deve10pment. The difference, however, is that the changes took place over a much longer period of time than has been the case in the modern developing nations. In addition, the bases from which the populations of many develOping nations have grown were larger than those from which the developed nations grew. Consequently, population growth in modern developing nations has been more rapid and involved larger numbers of people. Ceylon's birth and death rates8 in 1945 were both relatively high, being 35.9 and 21.5 respectively. Between 1921 and 1946 the island's population grew at the average annual rate of about 1.75 percent. In 1947 a malaria con- trol program was initiated that involved the intensive spraying of DDT to eradicate disease-spreading mosquitos. The success of the program was reflected in the rapidly de- clining death rate which by 1950 had fallen to 12.4. The birth rate during the same period increased slightly to 39.7. The rate of natural increase, however, almost doubled, ris- ing from 14.7 to 27.8. By 1965 the death rate had declined further to 8.2 and the birth rate showed signs of a downward trend, having declined to 33.1. The rate of natural increase remained considerably above the 1945 level at 24.9. The ef- fect of these changes is reflected in the rapid growth of the population. In the intercensal period from 1953 to 1963 a total of 2.46 million peOple were added to the population at an average rate of 3.0 percent per annum.9 When the 1953 base population of 8.10 million is considered the burden created by the rapid addition of almost two and a half million peOple becomes apparent. Such a sudden and rapid in- crease in population is what is meant by the popular term "pOpulation explosion." 8Birth and death rates and rates of natural increase are stated in units per thousand population. 9Ceylon Year Book 1968 (Colombo, Ceylon: Department of Census and Statistics, 1968), pp. 38-39. Ceylon has not been unique in its experience with population growth. Other developing nations have followed the Ceylonese pattern of declining death rates, essentially static high birth rates and increasing rates of growth. The experience of the British Crown Colony of Mauritius has been almost identical to that of Ceylon.10 Malayall and Thailand12 have witnessed similar rapid population growth, with annual rates of increase of three percent or more. 14 and Korea15 were faced with ex- Hong Kong,13 and Taiwan panding populations once conditions became more settled following the disruptions of the late 1940's and early 10Harley J. walker, "Overpopulation in Mauritius: A Survey," The Geographic Review, 54: 243-244, April, 1964. 11Marion W. Ward, "A Review of Problems and Achieve- ments in the Economic Development of Malaya," Economic Geogr raphy, 44:326, 328, 333, October, 1968. 12United States Department of State, Background Notes: Thailand (Washington, D.C. : United States Govern- ment Printing Office, April, 1968), p. 3. 13T. D. Vaughn and D. J. Dwyer, "Some Aspects of Postwar Population Growth in Hong Kong," Economic Geography, 42:37-38, January, 1966. 14Council for International Economic C00peration and Development, Taiwan Statistical Data Book 1970 (Taipei, Taiwan: Executive Yuan, 1970): p. 4. 15Economic Statistics Yearbook, 1970 (Seoul, Korea: Bank of Korea, 1970), p. 8. In fact the rate of pOpulation increase in Korea was such that the editors of the Korea Annual were moved in 1965 to state that, "The 'population eprosion' has become one of the most feared phenomena in the Republic of Korea today." Korea Annual, 1965 (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1965), p. 139. 1950's. The pattern in the developing nations of Latin America16 and Africa17 has been similar to that found in the Asian nations. They, too, have followed the general trend outlined in the case of Ceylon. While the picture presented of population growth in the developing nations is generally bleak there are some bright spots that give reason to believe that the trend de- scribed may be reversed. Indications have appeared in Hong Kong and Taiwan during the last decade that point to a de- 18 It should be cline in their rates of natural increase. noted, however, that population growth in these two densely inhabited places continued at rates of over two percent per annum. Unless their growth rates can be brought below the two percent level soon their populations will double before 16Alfonso Gonzalez, "Population Growth and Socio- Economic Development: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Geography, 70: 36-40, January, 1971. 17John I. Clarke, "POpulation Distribution and Dy- namics in Cameroon," Geography and a Crowdin World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, andLR; Mansell ProtHero, edi- tors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), pp. 351-352; Marcin Rosciszewski, "POpulation Growth and Economic Devel- opment in Egypt," Geography and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, edi- tors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), p. 332. 18Ronald Freedman and others, "Hong Kong: Fertility Decline: 1961-1968," Populatign Index, 36:3-18, January- March, 1970; Ronald Freedman, "The Accelerating Fertility Decline in Taiwan," Population Index, 31: 430-435, October, 1965; "The Continuing Fertility Decline in Taiwan," Popula- tion Index, 33: 3-17, January-March, 1967. 10 the end of the century. Such a prospect for already crowded places like Hong Kong and Taiwan is, to say the least, dis- turbing. The phenomenon of rapid population growth continues to be one of the distinguishing characteristics of develop- ing nations. Combined with population growth in general has been an extraordinary increase in the proportions of popula- tions living in urban centers. These disproportionate in- creases have been brought about largely through the migra- tion of considerable numbers of people from rural to urban areas. The impetus for this migratory activity has been the combined effect of population pressure in rural areas and the attractiveness of urban centers.19 People unable to make a satisfactory living in rural areas due to the in- creased numbers are placing high demands on the agricultural resources. Thus, many migrate to the cities in search of employment.20 Others are drawn to the cities by the 19Glenn T. Trewartha, A Geography of Population: World Patterns (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1969), pp. 147-154; John Fraser Hart, "The Adjustment of Rural Pop- ulation to Diminishing Land Resources," Geography and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R R. Mansell P?3therq,editors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), pp. 97-99. Paul R. and.Anne H. Ehrlich, pp. pip., pp. 37-41. 20An exception has been noted in the Philippines where migrants have moved to new agricultural lands rather than to the cities. It is recognized, however, that the new agricultural lands will eventually be filled and that should the current high rate of population increase continue the cities can expect to receive an increasing number of ll opportunities for employment and large incomes that the rural communities do not offer. But whether people are mo- tivated to migrate by rural population pressure or the at- tractions of the urban areas, they sometimes discover that they are little better off in cities than they were in rural areas. In fact, some migrants find their position worsened as a result of their move due to their inability to find employment, the poor housing facilities available to them and a number of other discouraging conditions. Still, many find city conditions better than those they left behind, and in any event most are either unwilling or unable to re- turn to their rural places of origin.21 migrants. Paul D. Simkins, "Migration as a Response to Population Pressure: The Case of the Philippines," Geog- raphy and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero,editors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), pp. 259-268. 21Jacqueline Beaujeu-Garnier, "Large Overpopulated Cities in the Underdeveloped World," Geography and a Crowd- ing World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and—RI Mansell Protherq,editors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), pp. 269-278. CHAPTER III URBAN EXPANSION The expansion of urban centers and accompanying re- moval of agricultural land from production has been going on for some time. The processes which bring about urban expansion, though, have as yet only been alluded to. Since an understanding of these processes is needed in order to fully appreciate the implications of urban expansion a brief review of geographical literature related to the topic is in order. The concentration of population in urban areas has occurred in both the developing and developed nations. The growth of urban population in the developed nations has dif- fered, though, from that experienced by the developing na- tions. It took place over a longer period of time and was stimulated more by the employment Opportunities created through industrialization than by population pressure in 22 rural areas. In both developed and developing nations, however, increases in urban population have led to the en- largement of the urbanized areas. Expansion of the urban 22Paul R. and Anne H. Erhlich, loc. cit.; Trewartha, loc. cit. 12 13 areas has been brought about primarily through the growth of residential districts, although the role of industries locating on the outer edges of cities cannot be overlooked. In order to examine the phenomenon of urban expansion in detail a consideration of the literature dealing with devel- oped nations will be necessary, for most of the studies that have been done relate to the conditions found in and near the urban centers of these nations. Sinclair's Model Von Thunen's analytical model of the "isolated state" in which the intensity of agricultural land use de- clines with distance from the urban center,23 while still applicable in developing nations, has been found inadequate when attempting to describe agricultural land use patterns in modern urban-industrial societies. A model of agricul- tural land use which better fits the realities of urban ex- pansion in such develOped nations has been formulated by 24 Robert Sinclair. In analyzing Von Thunen's model he notes that conditions affecting the relationships between urban 23Michael Chisholm, Rural Settlement and Land Use (London: Hutchinson University Library, 1962), pp. 21-35. 24Robert Sinclair, "Von Thuenen and Urban Sprawl," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 57:72-87, March, 1967. 14 centers and neighboring agricultural lands have changed con- siderably since the early nineteenth century when Von Thunen did his work. Modern transportation, refrigeration and food processing techniques have reduced the need for farmers pro- ducing perishable goods to locate immediately adjacent to urban markets. The development of national and internation- al markets has further reduced the farmer's dependence upon a single regional market for the disposal of his produce. Furthermore, entry of expanding urban centers into the com- petition for the use of land has added a complicating ele- ment to the competition. Finally, Sinclair notes one sige nificant fact differentiating ". . . most modern urban areas from the cities of Von Thunen's experience. Whereas Von Thunen envisaged a static city, with set boundaries, in most modern industrialized nations the theme is urban ex- pansion, with population growth and constantly expanding areas of urban land use."25 Urban expansion is the phenom- enon that Sinclair has incorporated into his model of land use patterns. The determinant in the location of agricultural and urban land uses in Sinclair's model is the value of land rather than distance from the urban market and associated transportation costs. The value of land is set by the com- petitors seeking to use it. Since a given piece of land 251bid., p. 77. 15 will generally yield a higher return when used for urban purposes than it will for agricultural purposes, urban users can and do outbid their agricultural competitors for the use of land on the urban fringe. A gradient of land values, ex— tending from the core of the urban area where values are highest to the rural countryside where they are low can be constructed.26 Along the gradient are found specific land uses ranging from business and industrial through residen- tial to agricultural. The area in which urban and agricul- tural land uses intermingle is the urban-rural fringe. Associated with the land value gradient in the urban-rural fringe is an "air of anticipation"27 among the agricultural land users. As the population increases with- in an urban area, pressures causing urban expansion into the urban-rural fringe grow, land values rise, and the farm- ers anticipate selling their lands and leaving the fringe. The final decision to sell is brought about by a combina- tion of factors. These include the opportunity to make 26Two studies by Norio Hasegawa involving the Japa- nese cities of Sendai and Hirosaki illustrate the existence of a land value gradient in large cities and also point to the movement of the gradient outward from the city over time. Norio Hasegawa, "Spatial Variation of Land Value and Land Use-Case Study of Sendai and Hirosaki," Sgience Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 12:145-158, March, 1963; TrChanges in the Spatial Variation of Land Value and Land Use," Science Reports of the Tohoku University, 13:157-164, March, 1964. 27 Sinclair, op. cit., p. 78. 16 money by selling to an urban develOper, rising taxes that come with annexation of agricultural lands to the city, zoning restrictions, and the problems associated with farm- ing in or near residential areas.28 Like land values, the "air of anticipation" takes the form of a gradient that declines with distance from the city. It is measured in terms of agricultural investment, the amount of money spent for materials, labor, and equip— ment by farmers. As might be expected, such investment de- creases the closer the farms are to the city and the greater the degree of anticipation felt by farmers. A farmer look- ing ahead to the sale of his property is unwilling to ex- pend financial resources on land that may soon be going out of production. A third gradient, increasing with distance from the urban-rural fringe, is recognized by Sinclair. This gra- dient, which he labels "Value for Agriculture," is also measured in terms of agricultural investment. It reflects decreasing land values with distance from the city and an 28Listed among the disturbing elements associated with urban encroachment in a study of Santa Clara County, California were rising land prices and taxes, pilferage of crops, and complaints from nearby residents about dust raised during plowing and problems associated with pesti- cide spraying. Paul F. Griffin and Ronald L. Chatham, "Urban Impact on Agriculture in Santa Clara County, Califor- nia," Annals ofithe Association of American Geographers, 48: 201-203, 205-206, September, 1958. l7 accompanying decrease in the likelihood of urban encroach- ment. More importantly, it reflects a feeling of security held by the farmers. They feel that they can carry on their work with little or no interference from the urban centers and probably will be able to continue to do so for some time. As a result, agricultural activity, as measured by investment, becomes increasingly intense with distance from the urban-rural fringe. The interaction of the three forces represented by the gradients (changing land values, anticipation of urban encroachment and the feeling of security reflected by the rural farmers' willingness to invest) is summarized by. Sinclair. The effect of distance from the city thus is expressed in the following simple relationship: As the urbanized area is approached from a distance, the degree of antic- ipation of urbanization increases. As this happens, the ratio of urban to rural land values increases. Hence, although the absolute value of land increases, the relative value of agricultural utilization decreases. The result of this process is a basic agricultural land use pattern which is the reverse of that found in Von Thunen's time.29 The general picture thus presented is one of an expanding urban area bordered by a transition zone of both urban and rural land uses, with an outlying area of agricultural land use which better conforms to the conditions described by the Von Thunen model. 29Sinclair, op. cit., p. 78. 18 Metropolitan Tidal Wave A.more general model descriptive of the expansion of urban population and its movement away from the urban 30 His con- center has been put forward by Hans Blumenfeld. cept of an expanding "tidal wave" of population growth has been succinctly summarized by Laurence Wolf. As he conceived it, population growth rates rise out- ward from the center of the metropolis in concentric circular rings until the crest of the wave is reached and then subside. The tidal wave moves outward over the decades, decennial growth rates declining in each ring behind the crest as the latter advances and in- creasing in the rings toward which the crest is ad- vancing. The relevance of this model to the problem of urban expan— sion is made clear when it is applied to a particular place. Wolf's study of Ohio provides an example of its application. Wolf modified Blumenfeld's model slightly, defining four major zones of metropolitan growth activity along with four minor zones, only one of which will be dealt with here. The innermost area is characterized by the loss of population during at least two of the three most recent 30Hans Blumenfeld, "The Tidal Wave of Metropolitan Expansion," Jourpal of the American Institute of Planners, 20:3-14, 1954. For a description and discussion of a math- ematical model supporting Blumenfeld's expansion model see: Piotr Korcelli, "A Wave—Like Model of Metropolitan Spatial Growth," Papers: Regional Science Association, Ninth European Congress, 1970, 24:127-138, 1970. lLaurence G. Wolf, "The Metropolitan Tidal Wave in Ohio; 1900-2000," Economic Geograp_y, 45: 133, April, 1969. l9 decades. It is labeled the paleo-urban zone. The meso- urban zone is contiguous with the paleo-urban and is char- acterized by moderate growth rates having a tendency to de- cline decennially. The area having the greatest population growth rate (sixty percent or higher in the period from 1950 to 1960 in Wolf's study) is designated the neo-urban zone. This zone constitutes the crest of the wave and is notable for the amount of construction under way within it. Beyond the crest of the wave lay the peri-urban and agro zones. The peri-urban zone is an area experiencing increas- ing growth rates as the wave approaches. The rural area toward which the wave is advancing is the agro zone, com- posed mainly of land devoted to agricultural uses. Using United States Census data for the period from 1900 through 1960 Wolf plotted the position of the "tidal wave" in Ohio in 1960. Based on trends in the data he then projected the position of the wave and its component zones for the year 2000. The projection shows a considerable change in the position of the wave crest. Almost all of the 1960 peri-urban zone was converted to neo-urban zone status. The meso-urban and peri-urban areas became enlarged, with the peri-urban zone covering much of the area previously labeled agro-zone.32 321bid., pp. 137, 147. 20 Wolf cites several reasons for the continuing move- ment of the wave. Among them is population pressure within the urban center, brought about both through natural increase and through immigration. A second reason is the movement of people from the older parts of the cities to the more desir- able suburban develOpments. This movement is often accom- panied, and sometimes preceded, by a shifting of industrial and service operations to the edges of the cities. Credit is also given to the automobile for making it possible for people to live far from their places of employment in or near the city and commute to work.33 The net effect of the projected movement of the tidal wave is to submerge much of the agro zone under the advancing weight of urban expansion along a front stretch- ing from Cincinnati to Cleveland. The speed at which the wave crest is calculated to be moving is three miles per decade. At this rate it can easily be appreciated that a considerable area will become urbanized as the wave moves outward from the urban center.34 33Ibid., pp. 142-145. 34For example, over the forty year period covered by the projection the advance of the wave at the rate of three miles per decade along a front only ten miles along would involve a total area of 76,800 acres, or 120 square miles. 21 Supporting Studies Most studies dealing with the growth of urban popu- lation and the expansion of urban centers tend to be descrip- tive of the processes involved in these phenomena. Such stu- dies, while providing little data related to the actual amount of land involved in urban expansion, lend credence to the concepts embodied in the models of Sinclair and Wolf and merit some attention here. In an investigation of the urban-rural fringe George Wehrwein, in 1942, elaborated upon several of the elements contributing to the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses.35 Among the elements discussed were increasingly available public and private transportation facilities, rising land values and taxes, and the attractions of subur- ban living. Citing Indianapolis, Indiana as an example, he illustrates the operation of these elements in the growth of an urban center. From a town originally occupying only a portion of a township, Indianapolis grew and expanded to be- come a city covering an entire township and parts of four 5George S. Wehrwein, "The Rural-Urban Fringe," Economic Geograph , 18:217-228, February, 1945. A study of the growth of Los Angeles between the mid-1800's and 1958, involving several of the elements discussed by Wehrwein, may be found in: Howard J. Nelson, "The Spread of an Artificial Landscape Over Southern California," Annals of the Associa- tion of American Geographers, 49:80-100, September, 1959. 22 others. By 1960 the urbanized area had expanded further, covering major portions of the townships it had only started to infiltrate in 1941. The metropolitan district of Indian- apolis had also grown and included all of the county in 36’ Unfortunately, the direction which the city is situated. and rate of expansion is not made clear and the lack of a follow-up study leaves the course of subsequent growth uncertain. The results of a study similar to Wehrwein's were published in 1945. Using Sydney, Australia as the study area, N. R. Wills described essentially the same processes and effects that Wehrwein had discussed, although placing more emphasis on the rural aspects of the urban-rural fringe.37 Wills, too, noted rising land values and the encroachment of residential and industrial uses upon agri- cultural land as characterizing the fringe. In addition, he noted the small size of the farms and the intensive use of the land for the raising of fruits and vegetables, more extensive uses being unfeasible due to the high cost of land and water and high taxes. 36 . . Based upon a comparison of Wehrwein's map and those included in the 1960 census report. Wehrwein, pp. cit., p. 225; U.S. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Census of Pop: EIEtion: 1960, Vol. I, Characteristics of the Population, Part 16, Indiana (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Print- ing Office, 1963). PP. 16—30, 16—158. 37N. R. Wills, "The Rural-Urban Fringe-Some Agricul- tural Characteristics," The Australian Geogpapher, 5:29-35, February, 1945. 23 Like Wehrwein, Wills did not give any indication of the direction in which urban expansion was moving. Fortun- ately, a second study involving Sydney has been conducted by R. G. Golledge,38 that allows for comparison of the city's features in 1945 and 1954. A map of the city and the surrounding area showing the position of the urban-rural fringe in 1933, 1947, and 1954 clearly reveals its outward movement, although it is difficult to distinguish the 1947 from the 1954 position. Golledge provides a second map, however, showing only the position of the urban-rural fringe in 1954. Comparing this map with Wills' map of the fringe it is readily apparent that urban expansion occurred in two directions, south and west from the center of the city. In discussing a number of characteristics of the urban-rural fringe Golledge rather obliquely attributes the expansion to forces such as population growth, the citizen's prefer- ence for suburban areas over urban areas as places of resi- dence, and industry's need for additional land. As did Wehrwein and Wills, Golledge fails to include any data con- cerning the amount of agricultural land taken out of produc- tion by urban expansion. 38R. G. Golledge, "Sydney's Metropolitan Fringe: A Study in Urban Rural Relations," The Australian Geographer, 7:243-255, February, 1960. 24 Further evidence supporting the models of Sinclair 39 and Wolf can be found in work done by Kalevi Rikkinen and Derek Smith.40 Rikkinen's study of population movements in the area of Duluth, Minnesota tends to support Wolf's "tidal wave" model. Although the time period considered is shorter than that examined by Wolf, a definite movement of popula- tion outward from Duluth in the 1950-1960 period can be seen on Rikkinen's maps. The study of the decline of market gar— dening areas on the urban-rural fringe of Adelaide, Australia conducted by Smith fits into the framework of Sinclair's model quite well. There the rising land values and taxes associated with urban expansion are causing farmers to sell their land and move to areas farther from the city. Smith indicates that the farms remaining in the part of the fringe closest to the city will eventually be replaced by residen- tial subdivisions. As mentioned above, few studies pertaining to urban expansion provide information related to the amount of agri- cultural land that is removed from production. Most of them simply indicate that it is being converted to urban uses. As will become evident, however, the amount of land lost from production is not insignificant. 39Kalevi Rikkinen, "Change in Village and Rural Pop- ulation with Distance from Duluth," Economic Geography, 44: 312-325, October, 1968. 40Derek L. Smith, "Market Gardening At Adelaide's Urban Fringe," Economic Geography, 42: 19-36, January, 1966. 25 Before trying to determine the cost of urban expan- sion in terms of agricultural land converted to non-agricul- tural uses, I should note that not all expansion is accom- plished at the expense of agriculture. Significant additions to the areal size of cities are made by means of reclamation projects. The draining of swamps and filling in of bays and estuaries have increased the amount of land available to many riverine and coastal cities.41 Urban areas also fre- quently encroach upon lands that are unsuited to farming due to poor soil conditions or unfavorable terrain. On the other hand, not all agricultural land that is removed from production is lost to urban encroachment. In a study of thirty-one eastern states in the United States, Hart showed that while urban expansion is a major cause for the loss of agricultural land it is not the only cause.42 Other causes he cited include abandonment of low quality land, placing land in reserve through conservation plans such as the Soil Bank Program, conversion to forest uses, and the decline of a major crOp such as cotton in the southern states. Even 41For a brief discussion and photographs of land fill activities in San Francisco Bay, California where 265 square miles of "land," much of it for urban uses, have been created see: William Bronson, How to Kill a Golden State (Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Co., Inc., 1968), pp. 166-187. 42John Fraser Hart, "Loss and Abandonment of Cleared Farm Land in the Eastern United States," Annals of the Associ- ation of American Geographers, 58:417—440, September, 1968. 26 with these causes taken into consideration, the impact of urban expansion on agricultural land is still considerable. Although Hart plainly illustrated that urban expan- sion is not the only cause for a decline in the amount of agricultural land in production, the results of his study point to its importance in urban areas. In the study, he used data on cleared farm land in 2,041 counties for the period from 1910 through 1959. A total loss of over sixty- five million acres is shown to have occurred during the fifty year period under consideration, thirty percent of it in 281 metropolitan counties. A careful examination of the figures on net loss (gains minus losses) reveals a slightly different picture. When net loss is considered, almost forty percent is accounted for by the 281 losing metrOpoli- tan counties. This amounted to more than 16,000,000 acres of farm land being taken out of production in metropolitan areas.43 Though other causes may be cited, it seems safe to assume that a large portion of that land was converted to urban uses. As with Wolf's three miles per decade rate of ad- vance for the metropolitan "tidal wave" though, figures such as these are useful only as gross indicators of the amount of agricultural land being removed from production by urban expansion. Two more useful indicators have been 43Computed from data contained in Hart's study. Hart, op. cit., pp. 421, 428. 27 provided by Lorne Russwurm44 and by Griffin and Chatham.45 In the conclusions of this study of agricultural indicators of urban expansion, Russwurm noted that an average of 192 acres of "improved farm land"46 was removed from production for each 1,000 persons added to the study area's population. The rate of removal in two townships bordering the city with the greatest percentage population increase was slightly higher, 221 acres per thousand persons added.47 Net loss during the 1941 to 1961 period covered by the study was over 50,000 acres. The usefulness of Russwurm's ratio of 192 acres lost per thousand population added is enhanced by his statement that "Since the abandonment of marginal land is negligible in the study area the loss of improved farm land is almost solely attributable to conversion into urban 48 land uses." A measure has thus been arrived at that can be used for comparative purposes. 44Lorne H. Russwurm, "Expanding Urbanization and Selected Agricultural Elements: Case Study, Southwestern Ontario," Land Economics, 43:101-107, February, 1967. 5Griffin and Chatham, op. cit., footnote 5. 46"Improved farm land as classified by the Census of Canada includes cropland, improved pasture and fallow land." Russwurm, op. cit., p. 103. 47Ibid., p. 107. 481bid., p. 106. 28 Griffin and Chatham's study of urban expansion in central California's Santa Clara County focuses on the forces causing expansion and its effects on agriculture. The primary effect of urban expansion there has been the replacement of farms with residential districts, factories, and shopping centers. The amount of "cultivable soils"49 taken over by urban uses between 1942 and 1957 totaled 76,000 acres, thirty—three.percent of the total available in 1942. The rate of conversion was 257 acres per thousand 50 Unlike Russwurm, the persons added to the population. authors of this study do not clearly indicate whether or not other causes contributed to the loss of "cultivable soils." The tenor of their study, however, indicates that the share attributable to other causes, such as those in- vestigated by Hart, is small. A second value, although con- siderably different and somewhat less precise in its mean- ing, may therefore be added to the indicators used to gauge the costs of urban expansion. The reported rates of agricultural land conversion provide an indication of the effect of urban expansion on 49The soils referred to represent grades I through IV, excellent through poor, as classified by the National Resources Planning Board in 1934. Figure 2 in the study classifies the great bulk of the cultivable soils as "Ex- cellent" and the remainder as "Fair." Griffin and Chatham, op. cit., p. 199. 501bid., pp. 199-203. 29 agriculture in the urban-rural fringe. In brief, the effect is one of displacement of agriculture by urban land uses. Its magnitude is reflected by the figures in the studies done by Russwurm, Griffin and Chatham, and Hart. In addi- tion, the likelihood that urban expansion will stop in the near future does not appear great when Wolf's metropolitan "tidal wave" and the forces involved in Sinclair's model are considered. The prospect for the foreseeable future is for continued urban expansion, much of it at the expense of agricultural land. Urban Expansion In Developing Nations While the discussion has dealt with urban expansion in developed countries there is reason to believe that simi- lar events are occurring in the developing nations, espe- cially in and near the major urban centers. Urban pOpula- tions in the developing nations have been increasing and thus creating pressures that lead to urban expansion. In Mexico the urban population increased from 17.7 million in 1960 to 28.7 million in 1969. A similar increase occurred in Iran with urban population growing from 6.8 to 11.3 51 million in the same period. Large increases were also 51Figures for 1960 obtained from: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Growth of the World's Urban and Rural Population, 1920-2000, Population Studies No. 44 (ST/SOA/Series A/44), (New York: United Nations, 1970), Table 4, p. 60. Figures for 1969 obtained from: Department 30 recorded in Taiwan where the pOpulation of cities of 50,000 or more people increased from 2.8 million to 6.6 million be- tween 1955 and 1968.52 Along with increases in urban population have gone increases in urban area. In Hong Kong and the New Terri- tories the urban area has increased considerably since the turn of the century. The change is illustrated in maps accompanying a study by C. P. Lo in which he discusses the changes, particularly marked since the end of World War Two, that have occurred there.53 The rate of conversion of agri- cultural land to non-agricultural uses in Taiwan has been estimated to be approximately 9,900 acres per year.54 of Economic and Social Affairs, Demographic Yearbook 1969 (New York: United Nations, 1970), pp. l44-150T’ In these and many other developing nations the increases in urban population were much larger in both percentage and absolute terms than were the increases in rural pOpulation. 52T. K. Tsui, Director, Overall Planning Division, Council for International Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment, Taipei, Republic of China. Personal correspondence, February, 15, 1971. 53C. P. Lo, "Changing Population Distribution in the Hong Kong New Territories," Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 58:278, 281-283, June, 1968. Other reports on urban expansion in Hong Kong and the New Terri- tories may be found in: S. G. Davis, "The Rural-Urban Mi- gration in Hong Kong and its New Territories," Geographical Journal, 128:329, September, 1962; T. D. Vaughan and D. J?— Dwyer, "Some Aspects of Postwar Population Growth in Hong Kong," Eggnomic Geography, 42:47-50, January, 1966; C. T. Wong, "Some Notes on Agricultural Geography in Hong Kong," The Geography Teacher, 1970, p. 28. 54Te Tsui Chang. Long-Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Products in 31 Between September, 1967 and June, 1968 I observed the construction of a number of apartment buildings on agri- cultural land near Mu Shan, a suburb of Taipei.55 The area shown in Figure l is a suburban area to the south of Taipei as it was in September, 1967. Figure 2 shows the same area in January, 1968. The clump of what appears to be brush on the left side of both photographs is actually a living fence of intertwined bamboo surrounding a farm house. The presence of that type of fence indicates that the farm house within it has been there for many years since it is the fence type favored by the older indigenous farmers. The buildings in the background have almost all been built since the end of World War Two, most of them on land that was previously used for farming. The building under con- struction that can be seen on the right side of Figure 2 is an apartment building that will house ten families when com— pleted. It was built on land, visible in Figure 1, that had been used for the raising of both rice and vegetables before construction was started. This, and other similar instances I have observed in Taiwan, Korea, the Philippines and South Taiwan (Taipei, Republic of China: National Taiwan Univer- sity, October, 1970), footnote 1, p. 48. 55My presence in Taiwan during this period was under the auspices of the California State Colleges International Program, 1600 Holloway Ave., San Francisco, California. 32 Figure l. Suburban Area South of Taipei City, Taiwan, September, 1967. Figure 2. Suburban Area South of Taipei City, Taiwan, January, 1968. 33 12:!" “Aw-h-- ”.H' f’ K .g in. 34 Vietnam,56 indicate that as in the developed nations, the urban centers in developing countries are expanding, often at the expense of agricultural land. The implications of such expansion for economic development in the developing nations merit consideration. 56The opportunity to observe cities and their en- virons in these countries was afforded through employment as a crew member on merchant vessels in the years from 1964 through 1969. Although the cities visited were all seaports they were also the largest and most rapidly grow- ing cities in these countries. All had newly built subur- ban areas on their peripheries and signs of construction underway were evident. Visits to port cities in Japan and a month-long overland journey, from Kagoshima in the south to Sapporo in the north, in 1968 revealed residential and industrial development there similar to that found in devel- Oped nations of the western world. CHAPTER IV IMPLICATIONS The Problem The implications of pOpulation growth and urban ex- pansion for economic development in the developing nations manifest themselves in several ways. As more people and larger urban areas must be provided for the problems of or- ganization and administration multiply. More of virtually everything, from schools and jobs to roads and houses, is needed to accommodate the growing numbers of people. A basic need that grows at about the same rate as the popula- tion is the need for food. As the number of people to be fed in a country increases the demands placed upon agricul- ture also increase. The amount of food that must be pro- duced grows ever larger. At the same time the amount of land available for producing food is being diminished as urban centers expand in response to pressures created by population growth. The situation created is one in which given a continuation of population and urban growth, the country's agricultural producers will eventually be un- able to meet the needs of the population for food. The country will then be forced to expend valuable foreign 35 36 exchange earnings for the purchase of food on the world market. If it has not reached the economic "take off" point in its develoPment before it must start purchasing food, progress in development is likely to be impeded. This impediment will result from the need to divert foreign ex- change from investment in capital goods contributing to de- velopment to investment in food, an item which is largely unproductive in terms of economic development.* As long as the need to purchase food from abroad exists, the rate of economic development will be retarded due to the diversion of investment capital away from development projects and into the stomachs of the populace.57 Solutions A number of solutions are available for coping with and solving the problem of guaranteeing a country an ade- quate supply of food. Those holding promise of being suc- cessful include controlling population growth, increasing the productivity of agriculture, increasing the amount of land farmed, and minimizing losses of cultivated land to urban expansion. The first of these, controlling the growth of population, is the solution that ultimately will have to be adopted by all countries, both developed and developing. 57Ester Boserup, "Present and Potential Food Produc- tion in Developing Countries," Geography in a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, andi T Mansell Prothero, editors (New York: Oxford University Press, 1970), p. 112. 37 Its adoption will be forced on them by the earth's limited capacity to provide sustenance for human beings. The amount of success enjoyed in implementing the other solutions men- tioned will determine how soon population control becomes an absolute necessity for the survival of mankind. Controlling population growth is a long term solu- tion to the food supply problem. This is primarily because- the implementation of control programs designed to halt pop- ulation growth requires a considerable amount of time. People must first be convinced that limiting population size is a good idea and necessary if they are to realize material improvements in their lives. Once people are convinced of this necessity they must be provided with the means to limit the number of children produced. Programs aimed at limiting population growth must consider the currently fertile popu- lation as well as the increasing numbers of people who will be entering the reproductive ages over the next fifteen to twenty years. The large numbers of participants in future birth control programs are seen today in the number of chil- dren under fifteen years of age in the total population. In the developing nations they constitute about forty per- cent of the total and represent ". . . the gunpower of the 58 population explosion." Halting population growth will re- quire a tremendous blunting of their reproductive potential. 58Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich, op. cit., p. 31. 38 Given these and other considerations, including im- portant religious,political and cultural barriers that must be overcome, it has been estimated that it will be thirty years before birth control programs can significantly slow population growth.59 In the meantime other ways of meeting the food supply problem will have to be found. Although population control programs are necessary if the appearance of unsupportable numbers over a long period of time is to be prevented, they do not provide a ready means of limiting the need for food and the load on agriculture in the imme- diate future. The prospects for increasing the productivity of agriculture in the developing nations through the use of hybrid seeds, fertilizer, pesticides, and increased irriga- tion seem quite good. In the Philippines, for example, rice production was increased experimentally to 10,000 pounds per acre between 1962 and 1968 at the International 60 Rice Research Institute at Los Banos. The remarkable 59Ibid.; For a brief discussion of some of the pro- blems invoIved and techniques developed in a birth control program operating in Taiwan see: Loren Fessler, "Taiwan as a Model for Family Planning," American Universities Field Staff Reports, East Asia Series, Vol. 17, No. 7, May, 1970. 60Melvin A. Benarde, Race Against Famine (Philadel- phia: Macrae Smith Co., 1968), p. 56. Although the figure reported by Benarde represents production under experimental conditions it does indicate the potentialities of new rice strains when properly raised. Actual production levels are far below those achieved under carefully controlled experi- :mental conditions. The Japanese, for example, are considered 39 increase in productivity came about through the use of the IR-8 "miracle rice" seed, plus prOper irrigation and fertil- ization. Though average yields have not equalled those pro- duced experimentally, the use of the new strains of rice seed has resulted in the Philippines changing from a rice deficient to a rice surplus country.61 While it is possible to raise agricultural produc- tivity significantly there are two sets of problems that have arisen or may appear in the future associated with in- creasing production. The first of these is related to the spread and adOption of new seeds and techniques. Areas in which adoption has already occurred are those that were best prepared to handle these innovations. Further exten- sion of the area planted to the "miracle" grains will re- quire considerable investment in irrigation works, better marketing systems, and efforts to educate farmers in the use of the seeds, fertilizers and pesticides. Mechanisms will also have to be set up to provide small farmers with to have rice yields among the highest in the World, yet in 1968 their average yield was 4,490 kg. per hectare or about 4,000 lbs. per acre. Average yields in Taiwan and Korea have been about 3,000 kg. per hectare (2,700 lbs. per acre) in recent years. 61 Bernarde, 0p. cit., pp. 56-67. 40 a means of securing credit at reasonable rates if they are to be able to take full advantage of the latest innovations in agriculture.62 The second set of problems involves difficulties that may arise as the adoption of the new seeds and techni- ques becomes more widespread. For instance, the disease re- sistance capabilities of the new strains of wheat and rice are largely unknown. Should a plant pathogen appear for which agronomists are unprepared, entire crops could be lost and the countries depending upon them faced with a food short- age crisis on rather short notice. Fluctuations in market prices paid to farmers must be guarded against lest prices decline as production rises and leave farmers in financial difficulty even though they produce more food. Finally, the international effects of formerly food deficient countries becoming self-sufficient must be considered. What will hap- pen to the economies of the countries that currently depend on food exports to provide them with foreign exchange if the markets for their produce disappear? These and other 62Clifton R. Wharton, Jr., "The Green Revolution: Cornucopia or Pandora's Box?" Foreign Affairs, 48: 758- 768, April, 1969; "The Third World: Seeds of—Revolution," Time, July 13, 1970, pp. 24, 27. A discussion of some of ese problems which have appeared in India may be found inn Wolf Ladejinsky, "Ironies of India's Green Revolution," Ezpreign Affairs, 48: 758-768, July, 1970. 41 potential problems must be allowed for and the limitations of the "green revolution" recognized when evaluating the prospects for increasing food production.63 Another solution for the food supply problem is the addition of more land to the area which is already in agri- cultural production. Estimates of how much land on a world scale that could be converted to use for food production vary widely, from a few million to several billion acres. Most of the potentially arable land, however, is in the Amazon Basin and sub-Saharan Africa, and its use must await the development of techniques suited to the tropical climate 64 In Asia and the "fragile" soils found in these areas. almost ninety percent of the potentially arable land is al- ready in use. Utilization of the remainder will require the clearing of land and construction of irrigation facilities. Overall, most of the land that can be easily and inexpen- sively developed for agricultural use is already in produc- 65 tion. Further additions to the area now in production will require considerable amounts of time, money and planning. The first two requirements are those which developing nations tend to have in short supply. 63 64Joseph A. Tosi, Jr. and Robert F. Voertman, "Some LEnvironmental Factors in the Economic Development of the {Propics," Economic Geogpaphy, 40:189-205, July, 1964. 65Paul R. and Anne H. Erhlich, op. cit., pp. 91-96; lhester R. Brown, "The World Outlook for Conventional Agri- CNJlture," Science, 148:607, November, 1969. Wharton, op. cit., pp. 468-75. 42 The last of the solutions mentioned earlier, mini- mizing losses of cultivated land to urban expansion, is at best only a partial solution. It is, however, one that would help to maintain food supplies and avoid having to purchase food from abroad. It is also a solution that can be implemented relatively quickly and at costs lower than those associated with population control projects or plans aimed at increasing agricultural production. In its sim- plest form it involves little more than governments order- ing a halt to the conversion of land from agricultural to urban uses. Although such an order would do nothing to in- crease food supplies, it would help keep them from being diminished. It would also serve to retain the opportunity to increase the productivity of the preserved farm land in the future, an opportunity lost once land is converted to urban uses. The costs of enforcing the order and planning for urban growth that would not encroach upon agricultural land would appear to be the only direct costs involved. Finally, the inherent rationality of preserving existing farm land, and thereby at least safeguarding the current levels of food production, should appeal to virtually every- one. Consequently, opposition to this solution would be limited primarily to those having vested interests in urban expansion, i.e., land Speculators, construction firms and perhaps local politicians. 43 The Implication The major implication of urban encroachment upon agricultural land for economic development is that it is compounding existing problems of food supply, or hastening the day when the securing of food becomes a problem in many developing nations. Each piece of farm land converted to urban uses represents an increase in the food supply pro- blem. If the stocks of food are to be maintained the pro- duction from each piece of converted farm land must be re- placed. This can be done by increasing the productivity of the remaining farms, putting new land into use, or a com- bination of both. These procedures require time, planning and the investment of capital in order to be effective. If it becomes necessary for a country to expend capital simply to replace farm production lost due to urban expansion, any efforts aimed at increasing the total amount of food avail— able will be diluted. A larger investment will be required to produce an increase than would have been otherwise neces- sary. In addition, capital invested in the simple mainten- ance of the food supply, either for increasing domestic pro- duction or financing food imports, can not be made available for investment in economic development projects. Urban ex- pansion is, therefore, a double-edged sword striking at both food production and the investment capital available for de- \Nelopment. It is a process that developing nations can ill- étfford to have going on within their boundaries. 44 An indication of the effects of urban encroachment on agricultural land can be gained by considering a hypothet- ical situation in a developing nation. Assume that between 1955 and 1968 the cost of urban expansion in terms of agri- cultural land in Taiwan was one-twentieth of that found in Griffin and Chatham's study of Santa Clara County, Califor- nia. This amounts to 12.9 acres or 5.4 hectares per thou- sand persons added to the population. Assume also that all agricultural land converted to urban uses was rice produc- ing land, that yield per hectare was three metric tons, and that annual per capita consumption of rice was 130 kilo- grams.66 Between 1955 and 1968 4,572,000 people were added to Taiwan's population. If the assumed values had been operating 24,679 hectares of land capable of producing 74,087 metric tons of rice would have been removed from pro- duction. These figures represent production from 2.7 per- cent of the 900,000 hectares of cultivated land in use in 1968 that would have been unavailable due to urban expansion. Rice needed to meet the average per capita consumption would not have been available for 570,000 people, about five 66Three metric tons per hectare is close to the average yield reported for Taiwan in the years 1965 through 1969. The consumption rate of 130 kilograms per capita iS' an estimate based on data from Japan and Thailand. Units of measure: 1 hectare equals 2.45 acres, 1 metric ton equals 1,000 kilograms, l kilogram equals 2.2 pounds. 45 percent of Taiwan's 1968 population. The cost of pro- viding a basic supply of rice for this many people would place a sizable dent in foreign exchange reserves that might otherwise have been used for economic development projects. Fortunately, Taiwan in 1968 produced suffi- cient quantities of rice with which to meet its needs, and capital was not diverted from development projects to feed the people. The Record in Other Countries In light of the points that have been discussed it would appear desirable for a developing country to undertake a multifaceted program aimed at retarding population growth, increasing agricultural production, and stopping the conversion of land from agricultural to urban uses. Most countries have started projects designed to increase food production and have adopted programs either explicitly or implicitly aimed at curb- ing pOpulation growth. While efforts in these areas have at least begun, projects and plans for preserving agricultural land are lacking, even in developed coun- tries. In the Netherlands, for example, the conver- sion of agricultural land to urban uses is seen as 46 inevitable.67 Plans for controlling urban expansion are designed to make the conversion process orderly and in accord with urban development designs. In Poland, plans for dealing with urban growth in Warsaw call for the spreading of the city's functions to satellite cities.68 Apparently the possibilities for the expansion and merging of the satellite cities to form one large metropolitan area have not received much attention. In addition to these examples, some of the literature discussing urban expansion implies that the major problem is not encroachment on farm land as such, but the failure to plan the encroachment properly. Careful planning for the conversion of land from farm to urban uses is seen as the best way to assure a regular and adequate supply of land for urban growth.69 67Ronald H. Buchanan, "Toward Netherlands 2000: The Dutch National Plan," Economic Geography, 45. 261- 266, July, 1969. 8 . . . Michal Kaczorowski, "The Warsaw Metropolitan Region," Papers: Ragional Science Association, Crawcow Congress, 1965, 16:100-103, 1966. 69Edward Higbee, "Agricultural Land on the Urban Fringe," Metropolis on the Move: Geographers Look at Urban Sprawl, Jean Gottmann and RObert A. Harper, editors (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1967), pp. 57-66; Steiner, 0p. cit., p. 361, passim. 47 In the developing nations efforts aimed at halting urban expansion have been at best only partial- ly effective. In Egypt the construction of public buildings on arable land has been prohibited.70 In Taiwan one of the criteria used in selecting a site for the new provincial capital was that it be located so as to minimize the amount of agricultural land taken out 71 These two examples indicate that there of production. is at least an awareness of the need to preserve agri- cultural land in some of the developing countries. On the otherhand, in Hong Kong and the New Territories where population pressure on the land is heavy, ". . . rapid expansion of urban industrial areas has converted much fertile land into . . ." new towns, roads, reservoirs, and shack settlements.72 In Korea the government has passed a number of laws aimed at increasing agricultural production. At the same time government housing projects have been designed to 70Rosciszewski, 0p. cit., p. 340. 71Yukon Feng, "Urbanization Policy and Metro- politan Planning in Taiwan," Industgy of Free China, 25:25, June, 1966. 72 C. T. Wong, "Some Notes on Agricultural Geography in Hong Kong," The Geography Teacher, 1970, p. 28. 48 " . . . decentralize metropolitan population into rural areas . . . ."73 The impression gained, whether devel- 0ping or developed nations are considered, is that most efforts that have been made to halt urban expansion are at best piecemeal, of limited sc0pe or designed to place the preservation of agricultural land second in impor- tance behind urban development plans. A Hypothetical Projection A simulation model can be used to demonstrate the effects of successfully implementing programs de- signed to curb p0pu1ation growth and increase food production while nothing is done to halt urban expan- sion. Given a specific population, the amount of food produced, and a rate of food consumption, the size of the food surplus or deficit in a country may be deter- mined. If rates of change in food production and pop- ulation are added to the model the surplus or deficit condition of the food supply over a period of time may be estimated. Other variables can be added to deter- mine their effect and aid in predicting if and when a country will encounter a food deficit situation. 73Korea Annual 1969 (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1969), pp. 203, 246. 49 A deterministic mathematical model74 incorpora- ting those elements just described was designed and programmed for use with a computer (Appendix A). The model was set up to include changing amounts of culti- vated land, crop yields, and food consumption and chang- ing rates of pOpulation increase. An indicator of the demands placed on agricultural land due to the forces of pOpulation growth and urban expansion was also in- cluded in the program. The functioning of the model depends upon a number of assumptions that specify the conditions and limits within which it operates. The basic assumption is that effective population control and food produc- tion increasing programs have been implemented in a hypothetical place called Country X. Equally basic is the assumption that nothing is being done in Country X to halt urban encroachment on agricultural land. Along with these assumptions go provisos that all culti- vated land will be planted to one crop, the consumption rate and agricultural technology will remain constant, and no catastrOphes such as war or drought will occur. With these basic conditions established, a more detailed 74J. P. Cole and C. A. M. King, Qpantitative Geography (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., 1968), pp. 479-481. 50 discussion of the rates of change will help explain the operation of the model. Country X is a small state encompassing 50,000 square kilometers, about half the size of Korea. Its population numbers 45,000,000 and has been increasing at the rate of three percent per annum. A birth con- trol program was successfully initiated and it is ex- pected that the rate of population increase will de- cline at the rate of one tenth of one percent per annum. The rate of increase is assumed to continue declining until it reaches one percent per year and then stabilize at that level. This set of conditions fits within the time span of thirty years which is estimated to be required for birth control programs to significantly slow pop- 75 ulation growth. The rate of decline in the rate of population increase is similar to that reflected in p0pulation figures for Korea where a birth control pro- gram was started in 1963.76 Also, the stabilization 75 Paul R. and Anne H. Ehrlich, 0p. cit., p. 31. 76Chi Soo Youk, "The Economic Program and Popula- tion," Korean Affairs, 1:35-36, February-March, 1962. A discussion of some of the problems with the Korean birth control program. 51 level of one percent per annum is similar to the growth rate that Japan has maintained since the mid 1950's. The programs designed to increase food produc- tion involve both increasing yields through the adop- tion of modern farming methods and bringing all of the available arable land into use. Rice is assumed to be the crop that will be raised on all of the cul- tivated land. Yields are expected to increase from a beginning level of 3,000 kilograms per hectare to about 4,500 kilograms per hectare, approximating Japanese yields in 1967 and 1968. The rate of increase is assumed to be three percent per year. Country X has an arable area equal to one quar- ter of its total area. It is assumed that at the be- ginning of the projects aimed at increasing the amount of land being cultivated only eighty percent of the arable land is in use. Each year 1.25 percent of the total amount of the arable land will be added to the amount being cultivated. The area being cultivated will increase until all of the arable land has been put into production. At the same time, one quarter of one percent of the arable land will be assumed to have been removed from production each year by urban expansion. The result is that the net annual increase 52 in the amount of land in agricultural production will be only one percent of the total amount of arable land. When all of the land that can be cultivated has been put into production the cultivated area will start de- clining as urban expansion continues. A consumption rate 120 kilograms per capita per year was selected based upon data for Japan and Thailand. In Japan, the rate of consumption for rice was about 100 kilograms per capita in 1970.77 The consumption rate in Thailand has been estimated to be between 146 kilograms and 167 kilograms per capita.78 The rate of 120 kilograms per capita is therefore prob- ably conservative. It may even represent austere con- sumption levels forced on Country X by low agricultural productivity and a concentration of investment capital in industrial economic develOpment projects. In order to allow for double cr0pping within the model a measure of the rate of land utilization was included. A value greater than one for this measure indicates that double cropping is being practiced. The rate is held constant on the assumption that it is the 77Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Handbook of Japan, 1970, (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime’Mininster, 1970), p. 31. 78Edward VanRoy, "The Malthusian Squeeze," Asian Survey, 7:473, 1967. 53 maximum possible under the conditions prevalent in Coun- try X. The value chosen for the rate of utilization was 1.55, denoting the production of two crops of rice on a little more than half of the cultivated land. It was selected on the basis of data for Japan and Taiwan and falls midway between a low of 1.18 in Japan and a high of 1.88 in Taiwan in 1968.79 The computations involved in the model are simple and straightforward. Consumption (C) is the product of population (P) and the consumption rate (CR). Total yield (TY) is calculated by multiplying the amount of land cultivated (CL) by the rate of utilization (R), and that product by the yield value (Y). The food surplus or deficit is determined by subtracting consumption from total yield, a negative value indicating a food deficit. The general formula is: SD = TY - C Where TY = CL x R x Y and C = P x CR To estimate the food supply over a period of time the pop- ulation, cultivated land, and yield values are incremented at the selected rates and the computations repeated. 79Council for International Economic C00peration and Development, Taiwan Statistical Data Book 1919 (Taipei, Taiwan: Executive Yuan, 1970), p. 28; Burean of Statistics, Japan Statistical Yearbook 1969 (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1970), p. 113. 54 Results of the Simulation The results of using the values for Country X in the simulation model are shown in Table 1. The units of measure are hectares for cultivated land and kilograms for yield, total yield, consumption and surplus-deficit status. The figures for year one represent the situation in Country X at the start of the birth control and food production in- creasing programs. There was a rice shortage that amounted to 750,000,000 kilograms, meaning that food for 6.25 million people had to be purchased or otherwise procurred from abroad. By the eleventh year the combined effects of slow- ing population growth, increasing yields, and additional land being put into agricultural production were felt and a food surplus was produced. In the fifteenth year yields reached the maximum level possible and the largest surplus of the thirty-five year period resulted. This happened even though not all of the arable land was in production. All of the arable land was brought into production in the twenty- first year and total yield reached its highest level. Al- though a surplus was produced it was smaller than those pro- duced in the preceding years due to the continuing growth of the population and increasing consumption needs. The rate of population increase reached its stabilization level of one percent per annum in the twenty-first year and re- mained at that level for the rest of the simulated period. 55 anhwwwmool rmoocnudnc nwucvuoOmo Nnm: 0muo. msooc Jkrwomd w~¢3omku mr amok~ou00I :schwuwdwv Neowoummmc 6mm: cwaoo aeoso ¢6:N«N« c:¢o~r¢k :r wNOcmkhhmo kroonmbwum «osmcucmmc snm: ccuoo mwokv :Nwmumu tramoock rr thmu4mosl 3m~n:mhnoc «omwwuwhmc snm: Node. omobw 0:5uuwu cwuwwnwk NV thmmGMle rwomchJOO oo:vcu:0mc knml Jena. wkokc Jkrumwu Cmukomcn «r QNNcNMMJNI GJOKwJOmcc owm¢co®w00 snm; cede. ooooo ¢O&3~N« wvccmcrk cr moeucenndl 3::omhnksc Gnovoonnoc knm: coda. wwocw :Nflewwu omosoork Om «szmQJNI OEJuowaowo owoccocooo snm: guano cmoo¢ cawammd (swakmmk cm «hhwwumc KQMN—Oovme cswcwomomc knm: wsuoo mboew chr:rwd Newswcwk so orfimmmcwd wom:NHMumc NWJQDGJOKQ hnm: Jkuc. ooovc c0:swwu «Nu¢:o:s wm Hmmccmocw :oswhsomso Nancowmwhc snm: Nsuco mmoow :mwc:mu :wcm3Noh um come:0«=: comouowamc mmuwomh:ko knm: Ohdo. cmovc wésmaww nwaavmdo an csmmomwom ddsmcnnwmc owm~¢owwso smm: «ewe. wkocc :kcwcmu 54wu©ecc we :ckhwmcdc aucchmwruo mhhhwwawho snw: node. ccoccd accommu cmhondro mm wa:m0mu¢c somewmoowc mussmwdmko 5mm: mono. co.oou Goowamn Mosacwhw «N :mroomufim moosw:waoc ~03Lcocahc hmm: mode. cocoa OwsthH crmcshuw co acroswoww Omoouasuwk owwwoood0c hnm: ¢cuco aeocc wooaowa (cachvuw Ow mkcwwrmuk cmcmucmuch NJflOOncNmo knm: coda. ecosc @¢:wuwfi mxs«m«uc (a ONchank wmsmowhass :Qwommo::c snm: soda. ooouw mocooua cummmwac Nu onconnomk s:m~w0m¢ws wcnummmmnc 5mm: cowo- coomc c045¢wd «snthrw (a mwooacowh ruumo:4k:k vodwwcammc 5mm: oeuco oc.:0 woc:nwu ac¢ocmnq aw mcm«ccoom «kmum363mk :mmmancnmk mc:: cmuo. ocono GOJqua cummamum 4w mmwoshJc: owooumcamh NammeJNOK kkw: acac- ccomc 00¢0:aa :rmm£«c£ ha m¢04McwnN c:osvc:ock @NONMK~NMN mm": rwwo. cacao ¢U:s~«« rccc:ccm ma mwcwcm:o 0O:N~Om:¢o wmwmonomcs «Mc: swan. cacao Goo:mua m:«m¢(rv aw :mrbmrnml «Jamuumcco 05~:m~0:ko :«on owuo. ao.¢c wosmnuu «cunawdm cu armwnuskun commwommoo owmemONJO Damn rwucg acocu ocaocca mammkamm a wmwmcwhcwc ovrsochcmo FGJQanuNO @cun acme. 60.5: awasroa (rammwsm ( ocwkwnmcmo r¢:¢0::wro kuwcosrwwm Ncwm rowoo oc.mm accapca rruawocu K FUNDhaukcl cwkrcmdwdo MN3cmmKNkm sham @cnoo acomc OOJNuCu rhuodcwr G (MJODdh3Wl PONOOJNJOQ :whwowwwsm OKVM Femoo Ccocc Goooabw Utrrwrcu U nmmWWr««€I r:mcummcom GNQJNNHNNm cnmm Name. coomc woJNFCa «auooco: a whmrrhooc: cccrwmrmkm :mccumcmom mean Wrap. ccomo canaooa ruwaoér: r GWNHMONHKI coooccwwmm OJNCGMOJIJ 00cm mama. occac ooamflcw cretUru: m ccooooomsl rcoccoccam owwwww0304 econ mmmo. cacao orcccrw crcrocua w Kohcwm. abndqu owd ouquposo quuq ehuwuug I MDJnqu 7owwut3wzou 04m~> J<»Oh cawH> «wad cukq>wh430 cued UJUGOG ohco Cbku>~»4:L 7ewwqozcrc 0cL> x >cbZDQL z~ (vacdoqoo CZq zcupuvcooo adobhgau~a0a zowhaaaxmm _ use: 56 During the last fourteen years the population con- tinued increasing, drawing upon the surplus agricultural production to meet its needs. At the same time, however, the effects of urban encroachment on an agricultural land began to appear as the amount of cultivated land actually decreased. Total yields declined while consumption needs continued to increase. Finally, after a seventeen year period of surpluses, agricultural production reached the point, in the twenty-eighth year, where it could not supply enough food to meet the country's needs. Production con- tinued to decline until, in the last year of the simulated period, the food deficit was larger than it had been at the start of the birth control and food production increasing programs. What would have happened if urban expansion onto agricultural land had not occurred? First, the amount of time required to put all of the arable land into use would have been shorter, sixteen instead of twenty years. As a result the first rice surplus would have appeared in the tenth rather than in the eleventh year. Second, there would not have been a decrease in the amount of cultivated land in the latter part of the simulated period. Third, total yields would have remained at the peak levels reached in the twenty-first and twenty-second years. The surpluses would, therefore, have been sufficient to provide for increases in the population for an additional two years, delaying the 57 reappearance of a food deficit from the twenty—eighth to the thirtieth year. Finally, since only population growth would have been involved in the reappearance of food short- ages they would have been smaller and increased in size less rapidly. The magnifying effect of decreasing total yields brought about by the removal of cultivated land from use would not have joined with pOpulation growth to increase the size of the deficits. The indicator of the demands placed on agricultural land due to population growth and urban expansion mentioned earlier is presented in the column titled Cultivated Land Per Capita in Table l. The figures represent the amount of cultivated land available to support each person in the pop- ulation. As can be seen, the amount available declined con- tinuously, even when the total amount of cultivated land was increasing. Looking at these figures in another way the num- ber of people to be supported by each hectare of cultivated land increased thirty percent, from forty-five to sixty-four, during the period simulated. It should be noted, however, that the rate of decline varied. It was highest in the early years when rates of pOpulation increase were high. The low- est rates appeared in the middle years as the rate of popula- tion increase approached its stabilization level and cultiva- ted land approached the maximum possible area. The rate in- creased as the effects of the removal of cultivated land from production were added to those of population growth. The 58 effects of urban expansion can thus be seen not only in changes in the amount of food produced, but also in the amount of land available to provide food for each person. If the years when there was a food surplus are looked upon as the years in which economic development could best take place the effect of urban expansion becomes clear. In the case of the hypothetical Country X, the ef- fect of urban encroachment on agricultural land was to shorten the period available for economic development by a total of three years. A second effect was to reduce the size of surpluses and thus also reduce the amount of income that might have been gained through their sale. If all arable land had been put into production by the sixteenth year the surplus in that year would also have been fifty- two percent larger and presented greater opportunities to earn foreign exchange with which to finance economic devel- Opment. Finally, when deficits reappeared they were larger than they would have been if no land had been converted from agricultural to urban uses. In short, the effect of urban encroachment on agri- cultural land and was to force Country X to attempt to es- tablish a firm base for its economic development in a shorter period than would otherwise have been the case. It was also placed in the position of having to pay for develOpment pro- jects with less than the full potential amount of financial assistance from the agricultural sector of the economy. In 59 addition, it had to contend with larger food deficits in the years of shortage than would have appeared if no farm land had been removed from production. The obvious solution to the food supply problem is to halt the growth of population. As noted earlier, though, this is a long term solution that is fraught with problems of its own. Increasing agricultural production is another solution that could reduce or eliminate the problem of food supply. Although it too has its problems and limitations, increasing food production is a solution that can be effec- tively implemented in less time than is required for birth control programs to take effect. The remedy advocated here, to be implemented in conjunction with the other two, is to halt the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. It is a solution that may be put into effect rapidly and at relatively low costs in comparison to other remedies. It is also a solution that has received little apparent atten- tion in developing nations such as Taiwan and Korea or in develoPed nations such as Japan. CHAPTER V TAIWAN, KOREA AND JAPAN Taiwan and Korea are two of the most rapidly devel- Oping nations in Asia today. They rank second and third respectively behind Japan in terms of per capita income, employment in manufacturing, and industrial production.80 They are also countries that have, while managing to curb population growth and increase food production, experienced rapid urbanization of their populations. The growth of urban population in Taiwan, Korea and Japan,81 has led to an increase in the areal size of urban centers. An examin- ation of population growth patterns, changes in the amounts of land in agricultural and urban uses, and increases in production of the basic food staple, rice, provides some in— sight into the problem of urban encroachment on agricultural land. 80Based on data from: 1969 World Population Data Sheet (Washington, D.C.: PopulationReference Bureau, 1969); Taiwan Statispical Data Book 1970 (Taipei Taiwan: Executive Yuan, 1970); Economic StatistiEs Yearbook (Seoul, Korea: Bank of Korea, 1970); Japan Statistical Yearbook 1969 (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1970). 81More precisely, the forty—six prefectures of Japan included in the 1965 census, Taiwan Province, Republic of China, and the eleven southernmost provinces of Korea which constitute the Republic of Korea. 60 61 The period between 1955 and 1968 was chosen for examination because of the availability and comparability of data for those years. Another consideration in select- ing this time period was the level of stability in each country. The instability and dislocation brought about by World War Two and the upheavals that followed in the post- war years had largely subsided by 1955. Japan was started on the path to economic recovery, helped along by both American aid programs and the demands for goods and services generated by the Korean War. The situation on Taiwan had changed from one of impending war with the forces on the Chinese mainland to one emphasizing the develOpment of the island as an economic unit. Conditions in Korea were less stable, but the ravages of war had been replaced by the de- mands of peace and the need to rebuild and develop the country. Given the availability of data and the prevailing conditions, 1955 was felt to be a reasonable starting point for an examination of these countries. The selection of 1968 as a cutoff was based solely on the availability of data. While some information related to Taiwan and Korea for 1969 was available, much of it was based upon estimates or preliminary returns for the year. Data for Japan comparable with that for other years was not available. In order to avoid the use of potentially mis- leading information, therefore, data for 1969 are not in- cluded in the tables accompanying this study. 62 Population Increase The populations of Taiwan, Korea, and Japan in- creased considerably between 1955 and 1968 (Table 2).82 In Taiwan the increase amounted to slightly more than fifty percent. Japan's population grew by almost fourteen per- cent. In Korea the increase was thirty-eight percent dur- ing the shorter thirteen year period from 1956 through 1968.83 These percentage figures, while considerably dif- ferent, mask the size of the increases in terms of the num- ber of people actually added to the populations. Taiwan's fifty percent increase, for example, represents the addi- tion of 4.57 million people to the population while Japan's fourteen percent increase represents the addition of 12.13 million peOple to its pOpulation. The differences between Taiwan, Korea and Japan in terms of growth rates are considerable. The growth rate 2Population figures for Taiwan do not include mili- tary personnel. Those for Korea are estimates based upon the 1955 and 1960 census reports. Allowances were apparently made for the effects of birth control programs started in 1963 in the figures for the years from 1964 onward. The es- timate for 1966 is 182,000 higher than the figure arrived at through the census taken in that year. Figures for Japan are estimates based upon census reports for 1955, 1960, and 1965. 83Figures published in Korea Annual (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1970): p. 398, for 1967 and 1968 are somewhat larger than those shown in Table 2. Using those figures, the increase in population between 1956 and 1968 was thirty-nine percent instead of thirty-eight percent. 63 .manmaflm>« u02un.¢.z .mooHSOm mmmnu Scum ooumasoamo mwflymmcmo tam mopmm Buzouw .osmfl .qmmmn .osxoa .wmmfl xoonummw Hmoflumflumum spawn .onma .mmnom .Hsomm .onma xoonummw mowumaumom omEosoom .onma .sm3flma .Hmmflma .ohma Moom sumo Hmoaumflumum amzflme “moousom o~.>a wm.a mow.aoa m~.ma wN.N hen.om ha.ma w>.m omm.ma mwma mm.mH mm.a mvm.ooa oo.ma mm.~ hmo.om vh.va wm.m th.ma hmma mm.ma wm.o mmo.mm Hm.NH wv.m mnm.m~ om.va mm.~ mmm.ma mmma mm.mH wH.H m¢~.mm H5.NH wm.m osm.mm o~.va wo.m www.ma mmma mo.ma wH.H mma.>m hm.ma w>.~ mmm.hm mm.ma wH.m wmm.~a vmma nm.ma wo.a mma.mm no.ma mm.m vma.hm mm.ma w~.m vmm.aa mmma mm.mH wm.o th.mm Hm.NH mm.m mmv.mm o~.mH wm.m mam.HH mmma mv.mH wm.o mmm.¢m wo.~a wm.~ oop.mm mn.~a wm.m me.HH Hmma mm.mH mm.o mav.mm em.ma wm.m mma.v~ me.~a wm.m mmn.oa coma. mm.mH mm.o mmm.~m mo.~H wm.m Hmm.v~ mm.HH mm.m Hm¢.oa mmma ma.ma wm.o mmh.am mb.HH ww.m Haw.mm mm.HH wm.m mmo.oa mmma vo.mH mm.o vmm.om mv.HH wm.m mvm.mm oa.HH wm.m 0mm.m hmma. oo.mH wo.H ona.om .<.z .«.z hom.mm Nh.oa we.m omm.m wmma .<.z .4.z ma~.am .<.z .¢.z .¢.z ov.oH wm.m who.m mmaa oumm Am.oooav mumm Am.oooav wumm Am.oooav unflmsmo nuzouw coaumasmom wuflmcmn £u3ouw coaumasmom mufimcma nuzouo Gowumasmom Hmmw cmmmn mmuom :m3HMB pawn pmum>fluasu mo oumuoom mom huwmamo pom .mumm :u3ouo .GOHDMHsmom N UHQMB 64 data shown in Table 2, however, mask a significant similar- ity of the countries under consideration. While growth rates in Taiwan and Korea declined, reflecting the implemen- tation of birth control programs, the actual number of peo- ple added to their populations each year increased. The same thing happened in Japan even though the growth rate there remained relatively constant. In 1956, 312,000 people were added to Taiwan's pop- ulation, an increase of 3.4 percent over the 1955 population. By 1968 the growth rate had decreased to 2.7 percent, but 353,000 people were added to the population. Korea's exper- ience was similar. The growth rate declined from 2.8 to 2.2 percent while the actual number of people added increased from 642,000 in 1957 to 680,000 in 1968.84 Even with its relatively constant growth rate, Japan's actual annual in- crement in population increased from 894,000 in 1956 to 1,165,000 in 1968. The significance of the increases lies in fact that even though growth rates decreased in Taiwan and Korea, and remained essentially constant in Japan, the actual number of additional people to be fed increased each year. Not only were more people added to the population each year, 84Chi Soo Youk, "The Economic Program and Population," Korean Affairs, 1:35-36, February-March, 1962. DiSputes the accuracy of the 1955 and 1960 census reports upon which the estimated growth rates were based. 65 but as illustrated, the magnitude of the increment grew with the passage of time. Thus even though growth rates decreased or remained at a low level, the demands for food placed upon agriculture increased at an increasing rate. The demands placed upon agriculture are represented by the density of population per hectare of cultivated land (Table 2). In Taiwan the density increased forty-six per- cent between 1955 and 1968, due to high rates of population growth in combination with only small increases in the amount of land cultivated. The increases in Korea and Japan were considerably less, about fifteen percent in both countries. This was due primarily to significant increases in the amount of land cultivated in Korea and similar in- creases in Japan up to 1962 (Table 3). It is interesting that even though large increases in the amount of land cultivated occurred in Korea between 1963 and 1967, they served to provide only a temporary slackening in the bur- den placed on agricultural land. By 1968 the increases in population had pushed the population-cultivated land ratio above the previous high recorded in 1963 (Table 2). Cultivated Area Throughout the period for which comparable data is available both Taiwan and Korea increased their cultivated areas. Taiwan appears to have reached the upper limit in the amount of land that can be put into agricultural 66 .ohma .onma .cm3HMB .womwme .ohma xoom mumo HMOfiumHumum cm3HMB mmumuoom :fl mousmwm ofiumm .ohma .cmmmn .owxoe .mmma xoonumm» Hmowumwumum smash .mmnox .Hsomm .onma Mmonnmmw mowumwumum UHEocoom “mmousom OHQMHHM>¢ HOZII.¢.Z .mmumuomm mo moammsosa ow pang Umum>HuH50 OH.H ooo.amm.m aam.m oom.o pmm.mnm.m mam.m mo.a «Ha.aam com mess OH.H ooo.mae.m mma.m eam.o www.mmm.~ «Hm.m wo.a Hma.mmm mom spas ao.H ooo.mmv.m pma.m moa.o ¢a~.o¢m.m ma~.~ mo.H mo~.¢mm mam pmmfl mo.a ooo.mop.m eoo.p oom.o amm.mom.~ mmm.~ mo.a ~4N.A¢m omm moms 8o.a ooo.mom.m mvo.p pmm.o mom.om¢.~ HAH.~ mo.a smm.emm «mm «was mo.a ~mp.mmm.m opo.m Hpm.o mam.maa.~ omo.m mo.a opm.v~m New mead mo.a Nam.mom.m Hmo.p mmm.o mma.mme.~ moo.~ mo.a ham.mom new «was mo.a ooo.m~m.m omo.p vsm.o maa.a~m.~ mmo.~ mo.a mmm.oom Nam spas mo.H ooo.maa.m Hao.m mom.o pom.mvm.~ mmo.~ HH.H Nam.mma mom opaa .a.z .¢.z mso.p mmm.o mae.am~.~ mao.m NH.H Noa.omn mam mmma .a.z .a.z. emo.p aom.o mmm.ma~.~ «Ho.~ mH.H mma.mma 8mm mmma .«.z .«.z meo.p vom.o asa.oa~.~ amm.H mH.H em~.mms mam smaa .<.z .a.z mao.p mom.o mam.oo~.~ .<.z AH.H mam.ova mam pmma .<.z ooo.oao.m .a.z oom.o mma.ma~.m .<.z mH.H mmm.~ms mum mmaa oflumm mpaonmmsom pcmq capmm moaonmmsom pang ofiumm mpaonomsom pawn “mow demon mmuom cm3wme mwaonmmsom Cu pawn mo owumm was m magma .moaonmmsom Show .osmq omum>fluaso 67 production. With one quarter of its 35,951 square kilometer area considered arable, the 900,000 hectares cultivated in 1968 represent utilization of all the arable land. However, by exploiting ". . . tidal land in western Taiwan and hill- sides and riverbeds in eastern Taiwan . . ."85 the culti- vated area was increased to 914,000 hectares in 196986 (Figures 3 and 4). The prospects for further increases, though, appear to be slim. At the same time that the total area under culti- vation in Taiwan was increasing, urban expansion was re- moving agricultural land from production.87 Between 1957 and 1966 a total of 6,866 hectares of agricultural land 88 was converted to urban uses. During the slightly 85China Yearbook 1969-70 (Taipei, Taiwan: China Publishing Co., 1970), p. 188. 86Council for International Economichooperation and Development, Taiwan Statistical Data Book 1970 (Taipei, Taiwan: Executive Yuan, 1970), p. 27. Heréinafter cited as T.S.D.B. 1970. 87The changes in Taiwan described here closely re- semble those simulated for Country X between the first and twenty-second years (see Table 1). All of the arable land, plus some marginal land, has been put into agricultural production. At the same time some agricultural land has been converted to urban uses. 88United Nations Stugy on Urban Land Use Policies and Land Control Measures in the ECAFE Region (compiléd by the Urban and Housing Development Committee of CIECD, Re- public of China, April, 1970), p. 49. Hereinafter cited as United Nations Study, Te Tsui Chang reports that "In the 18-year period, 1951-1968, more than 9,000 hectares of fertile farm land, mostly rice paddy fields, were con- verted to building sites." Te Tsui Chang, editor, 68 Figure 3. A Hillside Terraced Almost to the Top Near Mu Shan, Taipei Hsien, Taiwan, October, 1967. Figure 4. Cultivated Land in the Bed of the Chung Chiang River Near Nan Chuang, Miao-Li Hsien, Taiwan, October, 1967. 69 70 longer period from 1956 through 1967 conversion of farm land in Taipei and its suburbs totaled 782 hectares, of which ninety percent was described as being "excellent agricultural land."89 Assuming that all of the farm land changed to urban uses was previously used to produce rice, the 6,866 converted hectares represent a production loss of 41,000 metric tons annually.90 The cost of replacing the lost production with imports would amount to approxi- 91 Fortunately, Taiwan pro- mately $81 million annually. duces more rice than is needed to meet domestic require- ments and exports some of the surplus each year. Long-Term Projections of Sapply, Demand and Trade for Se- lected Agriculturalgrodficts in Taiwan (Taipei, Republic of China: National Taiwan University, October, 1970), p. 68. He also noted that during the same period " . . . approximately 4,000 hectares of originally good farm fields had been shifted annually to non-agricultural uses." (Emphasis added). Te Tsui Chang, 0 . cit., p. 48. Since the United Nations Study figure refers specifically to agricultural land converted to urban uses it will be used here in preference to the less precise approximate figure associated with-land converted to "non-agricultural uses" or the more restrictive figure associated with conversion to "building sites." 89 United Nations Study, Ibid. 90Computed on the basis of the 1968 average yield per hectare of 3,188 kilograms and the 1968 rate of utiliza- tion for cultivated land of 1.88. T.S.D.B. 1970, op. cit. pp. 28, 33. 91This figure was computed on the basis of a pur- chase price in the United States of $9.00 per 100 lbs. of brown rice estimated by the Rice Growers Association of California, and transportation costs of $10.00 per long ton from the west coast of the U.S. to Korea estimated by Boat Food Carriers, 425 California St., San Francisco, 71 In Korea the amount of land cultivated increased by 320,000 hectares, or sixteen percent, between 1957 and 1968 (Table 3). Most of the increase took place in the period from 1962 through 1966 in response to government programs aimed at increasing agricultural production. Part of the First Five-Year Economic Plan called for bringing under cultivation and/or irrigation land totaling 227,000 hectares in the 1962-1966 period.92 At the end of the Plan period in 1966 the increase in cultivated area amounted to 213,000 hectares,93 representing almost complete achievement of the Plan's goal. The amount of agricultural land converted to urban uses, however, cannot be determined due to the unavail- ability of published data. California. Transportation costs for shipping rice to Taiwan are not available because shipments have not been made in recent years upon which to base an estimate. Both the Rice Growers Association and Boat Food Carriers indicated that the estimated costs could vary considerably depending upon market conditions at the time of purchase and the type of arrangements negotiated by the purchaser. Purchases of rice made under the provisions of Public Law 480 would cost less than the amount indicated here for open market purchases. Costs involved in purchasing and transporting American rice were used due to the unavailability of information on costs associated with obtaining supplies from the rice exporting nations of Asia such as Thailand and Burma. 92Summary of the First Five-YeahaEconomic Plan 1962- 1966 (Seoul, Korea: Economic Planning Board, 1962), p. 41. In addition to increasing agricultural production, the pro- gram to bring more land under cultivation was designed to make land available for settlement and thus stem the flow of landless farmers to the cities and entice those already there back to the rural areas. 93Economic Statistics Yearbook 1970 (Seoul, Korea: Bank of Korea, 1970). p. 198. Hereinafter cited as E.S.Y. (year). 72 Japan's experience with increasing the amount of land in agricultural production was somewhat different from that of either Taiwan or Korea. Following World War Two there was an influx of returning military personnel and colonists from areas held during and before the war. Not only were large numbers of people added to the population of the home islands, but the food stuffs that had been sup- plied by former colonies such as Taiwan were no longer available. A heavy burden was thus suddenly placed on the productive capabilities of Japanese agriculture. Part of the solution to the problem of supplying enough food for the country was to put more land into food production. Plans designed to increase the cultivated area and safeguard existing agricultural lands from storms and 94 As a result the floods were prepared and implemented. cultivated area was enlarged, reaching a maximum of 6,086,000 hectares in 1961. Since then the amount of cultivated land has decreased, leaving the country with a net loss of culti- vated land totaling 116,000 hectares for the 1956-1968 per- iod. The loss from the peak year of 1961 through 1968 amounted to 189,000 hectares. Figure 5 shows the trend of Japanese population growth, changes in the amount of land cultivated, and the burden placed on the land as represented 94Norio Hasegawa, "Recent DevelOpment of Regional Plannings in Japan," Science Reports of the Tohoku Univer- sity (7th series), 18:137-142, March, 1969. 73 Figure 5. Japan, 1956 - 1968: Population, Cultivated Land, and Cultivated Land Per Thousand Population. Figure 6. Cultivated Land Removed From Production by Natural Disasters and Artificial Dilapidation, 1958 - 1968. 74 I II 67 m J A PA N -I02 66 _ 6I 0 .,0. I956 l968 65 *IOO ~99 64—60 5 « ’98 63 »97 60 o 1 >96 62 ——~1 r95 6| fl r94 59 5 « >95 60 —- >92 59— 590 < >9I .. >90 58 ——- ° I956 I958 I960 I962 I964 I966 I968 I--------~ Cultivated land per thousand population (in hectares) IIo--- Cultivated land (in thousands of square kilometers) III —— Population (in millions) CULTIVATED LAND (HECTARES) 90,000 + 80,000 ‘ 70,000 ‘ 60,000 . 50,000 7 40,000 9 I958- I968 30 000 ‘ .- -—--Cultivated land lost through artificial ’ _---."' dilapidation and natural disaster ° . ....... -. Cultivated Iand lost through artificial 20,000 a dilapidation I0,000 't I958 I960 I962 I964 I966 I968 fh 75 by the ratio of cultivated land to pOpulation. Even though the amount of land being cultivated increased between 1956 and 1961, the area available to supply the needs of each person decreased. After 1961 the decrease continued, but at a faster rate, reflecting the combined effect of popu- lation growth and increasingly larger losses of cultivated land. The loss of cultivated land attributable to urban expansion in Japan is difficult to ascertain. Information published by the government indicates two causes for the removal of agricultural land from production, natural di- saster and artificial dilapidation. Losses due to natural disasters include those occasioned by floods, landslides, earthquakes and so forth. Artificial dilapidation is a broad term encompassing losses in cultivated land brought about by conversion " . . . to forests, wasteland, pastures, lakes, ponds, residential land, salt fields, Spas and other lands."95 The magnitude of the losses due to these two causes is shown in Figure 6. It is noteworthy that through- out the eleven year period for which data are available artificial dilapidation accounted for most of the land re- moved from production. Although it cannot be determined exactly how much agricultural land was converted to urban 5Bureau of Statistics, Japan Statistical Yeapbook 1969 (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1970), p. I05. Hereinafter cited as J.S.Y. (year). 76 uses, it seems reasonable to assume that changes to residen- tial and industrial uses accounted for a considerable por- tion of the total. Food Production While changes in pOpulation and cultivated area occurred in Taiwan, Korea, and Japan, changes in the produc- tion of rice, the staple food crop in all three countries, were also recorded (Table 4). In Taiwan and Korea the in- creases resulted from the combined effect of additional land being put into production and the spread of modern agricultural techniques. The fifty-Six percent increase in Taiwan was due largely to the increasingly widespread use 96 of fertilizers, pesticides and improved seeds and the 97 adoption of more efficient irrigation methods. This re- sulted in higher per hectare yields which accounted for most of the increased production. The smaller increase in Korea was achieved mainly by putting more land into produc- 98 tion and enlarging the area under irrigation. The Japanese 96Y. L. Hsueh, "Doubling the Rice CrOp," Free China Review, 14:28-30, October, 1964. 97Canute Vandermeer, "Changing Water Control in a Taiwanese Rice-Field Irrigation System," Annals of the Asso- giation of American Geographers, 58:720-747, December, 1968: Credit is also given to the enlargement of the area under irrigation. Te Tsui Chang, 0p. cit., p. 67. 98Economic Survey 1968 (Seoul, Korea: Economic Plan- ning Board, 1968), pp. 154-155. 77 .chma Una homa .oeaa .amaape .oeaa room mono anoaunanenm pagans .cmma can moma .cmmmc .omxoe .xoooumow aooaumaumum cameo .mouox .asoom .Nmonumow moaumaumum OMEocoom Ioasmom one mama» aouoe Eoum cousmaoo Gownom mom oaoaw .aan6aan>« oozin.4.z ”moonoom .mousmam soap .mEoum IOHHM CH GOmHmm Hmm Cram MHMUUOE Hmm @HGHW smGOH. OflHHGZ HO mflflmmfiofi CH GHOHN HMU.O.H. m.cva cmvv mmmva m.mca comm mmam v.vma mmam mamm moma m.mva cmmv mmmwa m.maa cmmm _mcom m.ama hocm vaem coma o.oma cccv ommma v.mma coam mamm a.mma hacm comm ooma m.mma ccmm amama a.mma cmmm acmm m.mma mmcm mvmm moma m.mma comm momma m.ava comm ammm m.mma bmmm womm voma m.cma cccv mmmma m.mma cmmm mmhm v.>>a mamm mcam moma c.vma chow momma c.vaa cmom macm m.moa coom maam moma m.mma chmm mmama h.wma cocm movm o.cma whom oacm aoma m.vma cacv mmmma v.ama omom vmcm a.>ha mmvm mama coma m.ama camm mmama .¢.z .4.z .¢.z m.mma mmmm omma mmma m.hma ccmm mmoaa .«.z .¢.z .¢.z o.mma «mom omma mmma o.cma cvom mmmaa .4.z .¢.z .m.z m.mma mvmm mmma hmma c.oaa cmom hvoca .m.z .4.z .<.z o.cma ommm cmma omma m.mma comm mhcma .<.z .¢.z .¢.z m.h>a amam maoa mmma comuom oumuoom oaoawwa acmumm oumuoom oaoaw somumm oumuomm Gama» Ham oaoaw Ham oaoaw amuoa mom oaoaw Ham oaoaw amuoa mom oaoaw Ham oaoaw amuoa meow sumac monom :o3aoa )F 7’ nonuom Mom oaoaw cam .ououoom mom mama» .oaoaw amuoa “coauosooum 00am v magma 78 achieved their increase through the conversion to rice pro- duction of fields previously used for other crops99 and the greater use of fertilizers and pesticides.100 Although total production was raised in all three countries, only in Japan was there a real improvement in the rice supply situation during the 1955-1968 period. There the increases in per hectare and total yields led to a re- duction of more than two-thirds in the amount of rice im- ported after 1965. This reduction in rice imports repre- sented the saving of a large sum of money that could be made available for the improvement and expansion of the industrial sector of the economy.101 The improvement in the rice supply situation is illustrated by the increase in yields per person shown in Table 4. In Taiwan, a rice exporting country, both the volume and the value of rice exports declined after the peak year 99Hideo Fukui, “Some Aspects of Recent Changes in Japanese Rice Farming," Science Reports of the Tohoku Uni- versity (7th series), 15:25-27, March, 1966. 100Increased use of fertilizers and pesticides is evidenced by figures indicating constant or increased con- sumption of these materials even though the amount of land cultivated decreased after 1961. For example, the produc- tion of chemical fertilizers for domestic use (production minus exports) increased from 7.05 million metric tons to 7.24 million metric tons between 1960 and 1968. J.S.Y. 1969, op. cit., pp. 213, 296. 101Rice imports decreased between 1965 and 1968 from 967,000 to 271,000 metric tons, representing a decrease in costs from $145 million to $50 million. J.S.Y. 1969, pp. pip., p. 298. 79 of 1965.102 The decrease in the quantity of rice exported was brought about by increases in total consumption that outstripped increases in production. Not only was more rice needed to feed the growing population, but more was used in 1968 for feed and the making of wine than had been the case in previous years.103 Also, larger reserves had to be kept on hand as a safeguard against crOp failure than in earlier years because of the larger population to be pro- vided for in case of an emergency. As a result, the export- able surplus dwindled even though the yield per person in- creased (Table 4). Furthermore, projections of rice pro- duction and consumption through 1980 indicate a further re- duction in the size of the exportable surplus as the popula- . 104 tion grows. Taiwan can therefore expect its earnings from the sale of surplus rice to decrease even more while the need for foreign exchange capital with which to finance its economic develOpment continues. It can also expect to encounter a rice deficit sometime after 1980 as the 102The volume of rice exports decreased from 257,000 metric tons in 1965 to 34,000 metric tons in 1969. Te Tsui Chang, 0 . cit., p. 78. The value of exports decreased from $43 miIIion to $4 million during the same period. T.S.D.B. 1970, op. cit., p. 135. 103 Te Tsui Chang, op. cit., pp. 73-74. 104Ibid., p. 84. The quantity of rice available for export (production minus consumption with no allowance made for a reserve) is projected to decline from about 300,000 metric tons in 1968 to 43,000 metric tons by 1980. 80 population continues to grow. The date that the deficit appears, however, will depend not only on the rate of in- crease in the population, but also on the rate at which agricultural land is removed from production.105 The Korean effort to increase rice production was less successful than those of either the Japanese or the Chinese. Even though large amounts of money and effort were expended, production failed to meet the country's needs and rice had to be imported to make up for the short- ages. iThe shortages were not, however, due entirely to the failure of programs aimed at increasing agricultural produc- tion. At the end of the First Five-Year Economic Plan in 1966 overall food production had been raised to the point that the country was ninety-four percent self-sufficient in food. Drought in 1967 and 1968 reversed the trend toward self-sufficiency and necessitated the importing of 106 While gains were made large quantities of food grains. in the production of rice and other foods, therefore, they were not adequate to eliminate the burden placed on the 105If the rate of conversion of agricultural land to non-agricultural uses noted in footnote 88 continues, production equivalent to 24,000 metric tons (at 1968 levels) will be lost each year. It is not indicated whether or not reductions in the area under cultivation due to conversion to non-agricultural uses have been allowed for in the pro- jections of rice production through 1980. 106Economic Survay 1968, pp, cit., pp. 153, 158. 81 economy by the need to import food.107 Unless further ef- forts to increase the production of rice and other foods are successful, Korea's economic development will continue to be hindered by the need to invest foreign exchange capital in the feeding of its growing population. As in Taiwan, the success of efforts made to increase food pro- duction will depend to a certain extent on the amount of agricultural land taken out of production by urban expan- sion. Farm Population Changes in p0pulation and the amount of land under cultivation, while effecting imports and exports of rice as well as production and consumption, also had effects on the farm populations of the three countries under examina- tion. One of the effects of population growth in Taiwan and Korea can be seen in the increased number of farm house- holds. In Taiwan, where additions to the amount of culti- vated land in use were small, this led to a thirteen per- cent reduction in the average size of farms. In Korea, 107Imports of:rice alone increased from 139,000 metric tons at a cost of $25 million in 1967 to 631,000 metric tons costing $120 million in 1969. Total expendi- tures for food imports increased from $93.5 million to $300 million during the same period. This represents a tripling of expenditures for food while the total amount spent for all imports did not quite double. E.S.Y. 1970, op. cit., pp. 310-311. 82 Incnnever, government sponsored projects to increase the area lxnder cultivation made it possible for the average farm size there to remain relatively constant (Table 3) . A second Geffect of population growth, an increase in farm household ijpulation densities, appeared in both countries (Table 5). 'NOt only did the number of farm households increase but so did the average number of people in each of them. When combined, the result of these two changes was the placing of increased demands on the productive capabilities of agri- cultural land in terms of its ability to provide a liveli- hood for the growing farm populations. In 1955 the average farm household member in Taiwan had 1,900 square meters of agricultural land from which to secure a living, but by 1968 he had only 1,500 square meters available to him. The average Korean farm household member's share of the agricultural land decreased from 1500 to 1460 square meters. The small size of the reduction in Korea was due primarily to the addition of a large quantity of land to the culti- vated area.108 108The decrease in the number of Korean farm house- holds and farm population in 1968 (Tables 3 and 4) was caused " . . . by the exodus of more than 200 thousand mem- bers of farm households from their farms." The "exodus" took place in 1967 as the result of drought which reduced agricultural production and made remaining on the land difficult for many farmers. Economic Survey 1968, op. cit., pp. 152-156. Using figures for 1967, the peak year for farm population, the decrease in the amount of land avail- able per farm household member was a little larger, from 1,500 to 1,435 square meters. 83 .cmma .cmmob .omxoe .moma amomumow aopmumapopm cameo .chma .mouox .asoom .chma xoonumow moaumauoum anocoom .oeaa .nneaee .amaaee .oeaa xoom mono anoannannnm unsane "moousom mannaam>¢ uoz::.¢.z .mmSam> oousmeoo one compo pom sesame How mousmam muamcoo ‘1' m.om mc.m ccc.mam.hm m.am na.o voo.hcm.ma o.vv am.o ccc.mmm.m ooma m.>m ma.m ccc.¢cm.mm m.mm mm.o omc.m>c.oa m.ao mm.o ccc.mom.m moma m.om am.o ccc.mmo.mm m.mm am.o ocn.cmm.ma m.ao cm.o ccc.ocm.m ooma a.cm mm.o ccc.mmm.mm m.om am.o mnm.aam.ma v.m¢ mm.o ccc.mmh.m moma a.mm mm.o ccc.cmm.am o.mm mm.o mac.mmm.ma a.o¢ mm.o ccc.mvo.m ooma m.mm mv.m mmm.cmm.am m.om mm.o mmm.oom.ma m.ho cm.o ccc.aao.m moma m.om mm.o mma.omm.mm m.hm aa.o mmh.omc.ma c.mv mm.o ccc.amm.m moma m.om co.m cco.ooa.mm m.om mm.o ocm.mcm.va c.mv mm.o ccc.hoo.m aoma m.om oo.m ccm.mom.mm m.om cm.o amm.mmm.va m.m¢ am.o ccc.mhm.m coma .<.z .<.z .«.z m.ao mm.o ama.m~a.aa e.aa am.o ooo.mem.e amaa .¢.z .¢.z .¢.z m.mo cm.o hmc.cm>.ma o.mv am.o ccc.amm.v mmma ..m.z .¢.z .<.z n.mo ma.o mmo.amm.ma v.mo am.o ccc.cm>.v nmma .<.z .4.z .¢.z m.ao aa.o mhv.¢mv.ma o.cm cm.o ccc.mmo.v ooma o.cv cc.o cmm.oov.om m.ao cc.o mao.mmm.ma m.om mm.o ccc.mco.e mmma oaumm muamsoa coauoasmom oaumm muamcon soaumasmom oaumm muamaoo soaumasmom How» swoon MOHOM cozama unmouom ca Goauoasmom amuoa ou coaHMasmom Enmm mo oauom may one .muamaoo coaumasmom oaocomsom Show .coaumasmom Eumm m magma V 84 In both countries the increasing pressure on the land caused people to leave farming because of their in- ability to make an adequate living from the available land. Many went to the cities in search of employment with which 109 Although it to support themselves and their families. cannot be accurately determined how many people left farms and moved to cities, an estimate can be made based upon the difference between expected and actual farm pOpulation in- creases. If farm population had increased at the same rate as the total population in Taiwan, it would have been almost one million persons larger in 1968 than it was. The Korean farm population would have been larger by approximately five million persons. The failure of farm population growth to keep pace with the growth of the general populations is reflected in the declining ratio of farm to total population shown in Table 4. 109Increasing population pressure on the land and the resulting movement to the cities in Taiwan is described in: Bernard Gallin, Hsin Hsing, Taiwan: A Chinese Village in Change (Berkeley, California: University of California Press, 1966), pp. 120-126; Donald Monson, "Future Urban and Housing Development in Taipei," a lecture delivered to the Seminar on Modern Engineering and Technology, Chinese Institute of Engineers, New York, July, 1966, pp. 5-6. (Mimeographed). Similar discussions dealing with Korea may be found in: Kim Young-moon, "Population and Urban Move- ment," Korea Journal, 4:19-21, August, 1964; Duk Hee Lee, "The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in Korea," Bulletin of the Korean Research Center, 25:53-55, December, 1966; Korea Annual (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1970), pp. 180-181. 85 The pattern of changing farm population and farm size in Japan was the reverse of that in Korea and Taiwan. As noted earlier, Japan's cultivated area decreased between 1956 and 1968. At the same time the farm population and the number of farm households also decreased. This was due mainly to the migration of people from rural areas to the urban centers. The migration was in response to in- creased opportunities for employment and higher income created by the expansion of the industrial and commercial sectors of the Japanese economy.110 The changes were such that farm household population density decreased and the ratio of cultivated land to farm households increased slightly. In contrast to Taiwan and Korea, the average farm household member in Japan had more land available to him in 1968 than in 1960, the first year for which complete data are obtainable. The change was from 1,800 to 2,160 square meters, a twenty percent increase. Urban Changes The urban populations of Taiwan and Korea, as well as Japan, increased during the period from 1955 through 110Indications are that somewhere between 400,000 and 600,000 people leave rural areas each year. The re- Inainder from the approximate annual natural increase of 800,000 in the rural areas remain there to take over the farms of their parents or find employment in the villages and small towns. Glenn T. Trewartha, Japan: A Geography (Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1965), p. 187. 86 1968 (Table 6). Unfortunately, the size of the increase in fTaiwan and Korea is difficult to determine accurately due to the lack of concise definitions for urban population. IFor example, in Taiwan "There is no definition of urban 'used in the census."111 Approximations of urban population Shave been derived, though, using the population of cities and towns of 50,000 or more people, as in Table 6. Esti- mates have also been made on the basis of the number of jpeople living in cities and towns of 25,000 or more per- sons,112 as well as those of more than 2,500 persons.113 “mether estimates based upon only the larger cities or those including smaller towns and villages are used, however, one feature stands out: urban population in Taiwan has increased Iboth in absolute terms and relative terms. 111United NationaStudy, op. cit., p. 24. Mr. T. K. {Tsui, Director, Overall Planning D1v131on, Council for Inter- :national Economic Cooperation and Development, Executive ‘Yuan, Republic of China, confirmed the lack of a definition for urban population by stating: "There is no formal defini- ‘tion of urban population in Taiwan." He therefore provided 'the data for cities and towns of 50,000 or more persons Shown in Table 6. (Personal correspondence, February 15, 11971). The suitability of the lower limit of 50,000 in de- Ifining urban population centers in Taiwan is supported by a EBtudy which concluded that towns with smaller populations fiaxhibit characteristics significantly different from those <>f the larger centers and may therefore be classified as Inaral.' D. Y. Yuan, "The Rural-Urban Continuum: A Case itudy of Taiwan," Rural Sociology, 29:246-260, September, 964. 112Chen Cheng-siang, "The Urban Growth of Taiwan," EEhdustry of Free China, December, 1962, pp. 5-6. 113United Nations Study, pp. cit., pp. 24, 24-1. 87 s .aoaa .Noma .nnann .osxoe .xooanmmw amoannaumum gnome .monox .aooom .oouom mo xaom ocofipuomoo moaumaooum .soama>ao moaumauoum aoaupmsoca .moaau .ooa mcsmIsom .so3aoa .aomaoa .ucoEQan>oa poo coauouomooo anosoom amcoauocnooca Mom aaocsou .coama>ao mcacsoam aaoHo>o .Houoouao .afima .M .B .muoom momcoo “Om maco oanoaao>o ouoo coaooasmom menu: omocomoc oanouo oouo>auasocs poo ooma coon: coon moUSaoaa mono Gonna u mGUHUOW m .ocoa .coauoasmom anon ono mo puma mcaoo mo ooamammoao no: mGOmHom aao moosaoca ouoo coauoasmom coon: soonom m .waao oamoom oHOE no ccc.cm mo mc3ou poo moauao How pump coapoasmom :oQHD :o3aoea oanMaao>o uozII.<.z mnouoanaM onosvm mo monomsosa ca ooma m.om m.mm .¢.z .¢.z a.m c.m m.mv mmm.wa .«.z .¢.z m.mv mmm.o ooma m.mm a.cm o.mm mam.oo m.m a.m m.ao mmm.ma .4.z .¢.z m.mw mom.m moma m.am o.mm o.mo mmm.mm m.aa m.aa m.ao cmv.ca .4.z .¢.z a.mm aoa.v coma c.ma b.5o ¢.vm mom.cm m.aa m.aa m.ao mom.m .¢.z .¢.z a.cm coh.m mmma anon anon am.oooac neon ucoo am.oooac name name am.oooav Iuom ooma Iuom .mom Inom mono Iuom .mom Inom ooma Inom .mom Hoow comm oo :o3ao II.III MI b .III III m MOM a . 9 III) I [IIIHIL I soon: ooamamwoau ooma mo ucoouom poo ooud Gonna “Gonna ooamammoao soauoasmom mo usoouom one coauoasmom soon: o manna 88 The figures used here indicate a 139 percent in- crease in urban population between 1955 and 1968 in Taiwan, almost three times as much as the fifty percent increase in the population as a whole. The portion of the total popula- tion classified as urban grew by more than half during the same period. Thus even though a firm definition of urban pOpulation is lacking, it is evident that the urban portion of the population is growing rather quickly and with it the forces leading to the expansion of urban areas.‘ In fact, it has been estimated that urban population in Taiwan will triple by the end of this century.114 One of the effects of urban pOpulation growth in Taiwan has been the enlargement of urban areas. As mentioned earlier, 6,866 hectares of agricultural land were converted to urban uses between 1957 and 1966. Other estimates indi- cate much larger losses. Depending upon which figures are used, the threat posed to agricultural land by urban expan- sion ranges from moderate to severe. If the average annual rate of conversion of 686 hectares continues,115 about 20,000 hectares of agricultural land will have been changed to urban uses by the year 2000. Should the higher rate of conversion to "non-agricultural uses" prevail (approximately 116 4,000 hectares per year), losses of agricultural land will 114Monson, 0p. cit., p. 3. 115United Nations Study, op. cit., p. 49. 116Te Tsui Chang, op. cit., footnote 1, p. 48. 89 total about 120,000 hectares by the end of the century. These figures represent reductions in the cultivated area of two percent and thirteen percent respectively. Even though it is known that a certain amount of agricultural land has been converted to urban uses and an estimate of total annual losses has been made, information about the amount of land actually occupied by urban centers is not available.117 In the absence of such information it is difficult to determine where urban expansion is tak- ing place or the rate at which agricultural land is pres- ently being converted to urban uses. However, the informa- tion available on the growth of urban population and con- version of agricultural land indicates that urban expansion is taking place and will probably continue to do so in the foreseeable future. Information on urban growth in Korea is less clear than that available for Taiwan. The data shown in Table 6 tare of limited usefulness due to the fact that they include (elements that are not strictly urban in character. The 117The 1970 United Nations study on urban land use Exolicies contained a question asking for information concern- iJIg the "Extent of increase (in acres/hectares/sq. kms.) in tile territorial limits of the urban areas . . . during the liist few years." The reply to the question was, "No Data." Siglited Nations Study, 0p. cit., p. 48. Although I specifi- <36111y requested information on urban area when writing the (zcruncil for International Economic Cooperation and Develop- 3nkant in Taipei, neither data nor an explanation for the failure to provide data accompanied their reply. (Personal c<>rrespondence, January 21, 1971 and February 15, 1971). 90 urban population figures, for example, represent all of the people who are not included in the farm population.118 As a result, it is impossible to determine exactly how much the population of urban centers (i.e., cities and towns of 50,000 or more peOple) have grown.119 The data for urban area are of limited usefulness because they include both urban area and uncultivated arable land.120 The decrease between 1955 and 1968 shown in Table 6 can be attributed to the placing of uncultivated arable land into agricultural 118Korean population data are divided into two groups, Farm and Non-Farm. The Farm group is clearly associated with cultivated land and farm households. Of the Non-Farm group, Mr. Han-Sung Lee, Chief, Industrial Statistics Divi- sion, Statistics Department, Bank of Korea, has said, " . . . you may regard the Non-Farm population as urban pop- ulation.' We usually call the people living outside the farm area urban peOple." (Personal correSpondence, January 25, 1971). 119The population of cities of 50,000 or more peo- ple increased 539,983 persons, from 9,266,829 on December 1, 1965 to 9,806,812 on October 1, 1966. The city of Seoul absorbed 332,480 people, or sixty-two percent of the increase. .Accompanying data shows the area of these cities to have loeen 3,487 square kilometers as of October 1, 1966, an in- Icrease of sixteen square kilometers over the figure for Decem- loer 31, 1965. These figures are the only ones that could be .found relating specifically to urban population and area. ggprea Annual (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1967), E3- 268; Korea Annual (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1970) , p. 395. 120Korean land use data are divided into three cate- gories: Cultivated Land,‘ Forest, and Other. The types of liand use included in the first two categories are indicated by their titles. The types of land use encompassed by " . . . Others includes the amount of land which is arable lOnt not cultivated and the land devoted to urban uses." Han-Sung Lee, op. cit.. 91 production as was discussed earlier. In the absence of data specifically related to urban area it is difficult to determine whether or not the urban centers have expanded. Clear indications that urban expansion has occurred are found, however, in comments on the rapid increase in urban 121 and a limited amount of land use data avail- population able for Seoul and Pusan. The populations of Seoul and Pusan increased tre- mendously during the last two decades. The increase in Seoul amounted to more than two hundred percent with the population growing from 1,467,000 in 1950 to an estimated 4,661,000 in 1970. In the same period the population of Pusan almost tripled, increasing from 542,000 to an esti- mated 1,592,000.122 These figures alone indicate an in- crease in the pressures that lead to urban expansion. The growth of the urbanized areas of these cities, however, can only be inferred from the available information. Data on land classified as residential for tax pur- lposes in Korea show that the amount of such land increased 121"In all probability, the population of cities with nubre than 1,000,000 inhabitants has increased as much as 20 Fuercent in the past five years [1961-1965] and 14 percent fibr cities with 100,000 to 999,999 inhabitants." Duk Hee Almae, o . cit., p. 54; "The [population growth] figures indi- <3Eite tEat a rapid expansion of the urban areas is underway, iirld this trend is expected to continue further." Korean 1Xrtnual (Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1969). p. 422. ________ 122HOUSING, BUILDING AND ELANNING: Problems and Erriorities in human settlements, Report of the Secretary Gkaneral (New York: United Nations, Aug. 21, 1970), Table 2, pp. 47-51. 92 from 119,000 hectares to 139,000 hectares between 1962 and 1968. Within the administrative boundaries of Seoul the area classified residential increased 114 percent, from 4,272 hectares in 1962 to 9,163 hectares in 1968. During the same period the cultivated area within the city's boundaries decreased from 16,459 to 13,142 hectares, a reduction of 3,317 hectares. An apparent connection be- tween the changes in Residential and cultivated area is supported by the fact that the changes were complementary during the 1965-1968 period. The Residential area increased 2,934 hectares while the cultivated area decreased 2,934 hectares.123 It is difficult to discern whether this was simply coincidental or actually represented the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. The data for Pusan, though, exhibit basically similar characteristics.124 The shortage of information related specifically to urban centers, and the limited usefulness of the data shown in Table 6, makes an accurate evaluation of urban growth in Korea difficult, if not impossible. Given the increases in urban population and taxed-residential land, plus the de- creases in the cultivated areas of Seoul and Pusan, however, it seems safe to conclude that urban expansion has occurred. 123E.S.Y. 1963, op. cit., Table 2, p. 4; E.S.Y. 1964, o . cit., Table 92, p. 151; E.S.Y. 1970, op. cit., Tables 1 and 86, pp. 6, 198. 124 Ibid. 93 In addition, the increasing ratio of urban to farm popula- tion indicates that it will continue to occur in the coming years. Unlike the Chinese and Koreans, the Japanese have kept and published records of the changes in both urban population and urban area. The figures for Japan shown in Table 6 were derived from census taken in 1955, 1960, and 1965 and represent the total population and area of cities with 30,000 or more inhabitants. The increase in urban pop- ulation between 1955 and 1965 amounted to thirty-four per- cent, while the urban area increased thirty percent,125 leading to a small increase in urban population density from 743 to 760 persons per square kilometer. Urban ex- pansion has thus clearly taken place in Japan, and at least part of it, as indicated earlier, was at the expense of agricultural land. The data on urban growth in Japan do have one limi- tation. They are available, with the exception of area data for 1968, only for census years. The lack of informa- tion on urban centers for the intercensal years appears to represent a failure to either collect data or estimate 125The increase in urban area between 1955 and 1968 totaled 24,600 square kilometers, or thirty-six per- cent. ' 94 changes.126 This failure (or oversight) may be interpreted in a number of ways. The interpretation favored here, is that there is an apparent lack of appreciation of the seri- ousness of-the urban expansion problem, especially as it is related to agricultural land. Consequently, attention is given to urban growth in the census years when it is convenient to do so and ignored in the intervening years. This interpretation is supported by the fact that although information related to urban growth is available for census years, data on farm population, cultivated area, agricultural production and a large number of other cate- gories have been available on an annual basis since 1960. The disparity in the available data reflects a justifiable concern with elements associated with agricultural produc- tion and a relative lack of concern with indicators of urban growth. In short, while the Japanese keep a careful watch on agricultural production and factors related to it, it is suggested here that they do not watch as carefully one of the factors that threatens to reduce agricultural production--urban expansion. In a heavily populated 126It might also simply represent the failure to publish available information. Such a failure, though, would be inconsistent with the Japanese' practice of publishing annual data on virtually everything for which they have data. Indeed, the absence of annual data for urban centers is striking when compared with the plethora of information published each year on a wide variety of- things associated with agriculture. 95 country that has only a small amount of agricultural land and adds more than a million people to its pOpulation each year, such an oversight is difficult to understand. This unavailability of annual data on urban growth does not, however, detract from the clearly evident trend toward urban expansion in Japan. Summary The information presented here indicates that the populations of Taiwan, Korea and Japan have been growing and can be expected to continue growing in the foreseeable future. The data also indicate that the ability of agri- cultural land to provide a livelihood for the growing farm populations is approaching its upper limits even though- the productivity of the land itself has increased. This is evidenced in Taiwan and Korea by the increasing size of farm households, the decreasing amount of land available to each farm household and the failure of farm population growth to keep pace with the growth of the total population.127 In addition, there are indications that the carrying capacity of agricultural land is being, or has already been, exceeded. Evidence of this is found in the dwindling rice exports of 127This trend is readily apparent in the case of Taiwan where population has increased at a relatively high rate and there have been only small additions to the culti- vated area in recent years. 96 Taiwan, the increasing amounts of food imported into Korea, and the continuing importation of food by Japan. The limited ability of farm land to provide a live- lihood has led, in part, to the migration of people from the rural areas to the cities, thereby causing urban popu- lations to grow faster than populations as a whole. Pres- sure causing urban expansion created by rapidly growing urban pOpulation has thus appeared, or increased where it already existed. The response to this pressure has been urban expansion. The limited nature of the data on urban growth, however, makes it difficult to assess the extent to which urban centers have expanded and, in the process of expansion, removed agricultural land from production. Even for a developed nation like Japan, about which there. is abundant information, exact figures on the amount of agricultural land converted to urban uses are not readily available. It would, therefore, be helpful to identify a set of variables that can be used in place of information on urban centers to identify areas where urban expansion may be occurring. The remainder of this study is devoted to an attempt at identifying such a set of variables. PART II THE JAPAN MODEL CHAPTER I JAPAN: A CASE STUDY In order to be able to identify a set of variables that can be used to distinguish between urban and agricul- tural areas and identify transition areas a wide variety of information must be available. Because Japan meets the requirement of information availability it was selected as the subject country for this study (Figure 7). Japan also has the advantage of having been the subject of a number of investigations on a wide variety of t0pics.l A brief 1Two general texts describing Japan, each with a slightly different emphasis, have been prepared by Trewartha and Dempster: Glenn T. Trewartha, Japan: A Geography (Madison, Wisconsin: University of Wisconsin Press, 1965); Prue Dempster, Japan Advances: A Gepgraphical Stupy (London: Methuen and Co., Ltd., 1967). Irene Taeuberis The Popala- hion of Japan (Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1958), provides a detailed discussion of population changes in the first half of this century whose continuation is evidenced by the more recent data presented here. The results of studies related to economic growth are contained in: Ryutaro Komiya, Postwar Economic Growth in Japan (Berkeley, California: University ofiCalifornia Press, 1966); and Seymour Broadbridge, Industrial Dualism in Japan (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1966). An examination of changing social patterns is reported in a brief study by Edward Norbeck. Edward Norbeck, Chan ing Japan (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1965). 97 98 Figure 7. Japan: Prefectures and Major Cities 99 Prefectures Jgpan HOK/(A/DJ I. Hokkaidé 24 We 2 Aomori 25. Shiga 3. Ivrate 26 KyOto 4 Miyagi 27. Osaka 5 Akita 28 Hybgo S Yamagata 29. Nero 7. Fukushima 3O Wakayama 8. Ibaraki 3|. Tottori 9. Tochigi 32 Shimane IO. Gamma 33 Okayama I I. Saitama 34. Hiroshima I2. Chiba 35. Yamaguchi I3 Takyo 36 Tokushima I4. Kanagawa 37. Kagawa I5 Niigata 38 Ehime IS. Toyama 39. Kéchi I7. lshikawa 40. Fukuoka IS. Fukui 4|. Saga I9. Yamanashi 42. Nagasaki 20. Nagano 43 Kumamoto 2|. Gitu 44. Oita 22 Shizuoka 45. Miyazaki 23 Aichi 46 Kagoshima he“ .56 ~97" % W Osaka OP Kita Kyushu # Fukuoka SH/KOKU 8% MTOkyG Yokohama fh. 100 look at changes in population, the urban dynamics, and cul- tivated area in the prefectures of Japan will serve to illus- trate the kinds of changes that have occurred. It will also help to point out some of the uncertainties about urban ex- pansion that may exist even when relatively detailed data are available. Population Change In the period from 1955 through 1968 Japan's p0pu- lation increased thirteen percent, from 89 million to 101 million. As might be expected, the increase was not evenly distributed over the entire country. Instead some prefec- tures recorded large gains while others posted losses. A careful examination of the figures in Table 7 reveals that the gains and losses were evenly divided among the forty- six prefectures. Most of the prefectures that lost popu- lation were those at the northern and southern extremities of the country and rather distant from the Tokyo-Osaka industrial belt. Those gaining were the prefectures near Tokyo, Nagoya or Osaka. Three prefectures bordering Tokyo, for example, recorded the largest gains in both absolute and percentage terms. Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefec- tures together had an annual average growth rate of over four percent during the 1960-1968 period and added 3,269,000 101 ooma muca heda mesa kaOa hmc Nae: och Owed cco can aNma ssnw 050a :oh mkm daca the not: {cab comm moo mmma Nmam NNcn mnha nova 00» can mom owca comm mow: eomaa cacn then mnoa nrma Nccm cbwa newa kmNa scum mona Nnaa onmm ooma nwoa chad nsaa amsa cmoa 000 «cc: Nco enca New ecu omma smnw nooa «co mhm mnca emu was: «$00 omaN cmo oama cam: chum cmna omua mom was com mwca momw nah: ooaaa occw oann amoa anma mocm ~soa amwa mama nssa Ncca smaa cNNm scoa .mu:4¢> cupcaouawhzw wu¢ snoa mhca khaa :wsa mnoa one anon moo onca own one mnma c-MN OcOa can Ohm owed she 5mm: :cco awaN Mme Mama one: enmw mesa nmra Nws can New nwca awnN ohm: swcaa ohsw swan coca Nwma amcw mama :mma cswa vmsa mood cmaa mwam owoa :moa whoa aoca aeca soaa ooaa assa ooma a:0a mooa use woo moon nson mac aw. ooca smca ago :90 mac «mo coma mmma acmm Noww mama emoa mmc one com com smca wmca omo sac can: mmm: smoo smco mcam aoam mwo awe cama mama mas: coo: mamm aoom ocsa oooa omOa mooa nos sch ams awn com mum mmca smaa mmmm poem on:: 0mm: mecca mmoca mcsm nwom mac» ovum ocoa ccoa mmma cmma omcm swam :coa sooa moma mama coma aoma mmsa amsa aaca maaa saea maca msam maam mooa cuoa momaimmma ooma oz. smoa mama maaa maaa mama mama mama -oa mooa mama one cam anon comm own on. oooa msca cam mam owe can soma mama ~4- n-~ mmoa coca one «on now am» saea «aaa one can 04a: coo: omao ooma mmem amen men use mama sooa Nome mac: amem maou oaoa mooa sooa mama as» was amp man one ohm owca anea oaam mwcm one; omen mmmoa omaea mcmm :o:~ aosm meow mama mama oama mama mmcm amcm aaow :Nam ooma ooma mera mara mesa mesa o~9a amaa awaa mmaa oaam moon moea moma acva :Naa GNNa onoa snug awv moan at. owed mam acc cama noun mood who now seem aus sown wnhm macu men awaa mm»: oohm amwa shwa ash mos mum area nm1~ aeon ammo wcnm c:m~ :cwa mama wacm cmcm vcna :Nna mcsa a::a mmaa oocm acoa noGa anaa acwa omoa ooma new see: man «emu Odo sec Ncoa Joan chem 000 @@m Ncca Nos econ m.mm mama nae mcea 0cm: omhm on0a woOa Nob nos nsw mmca Ncaw nsen :oom ocrw an3~ cnma :ama sacm amcm amma onna mama u::a smaa orcm coca cwva ncaa coma Nona «use mmo occc coo Gama owe omo oaoa moan coca New mco ccca out coon comm Lama n30 meta Naa: chum oaoa coca has nmm Nsm maca aw:~ can» mmmc mcom comm coma omma cwcm nscm mrma acra mama amea omsa Nacw omoa .ousaoomoum ma coauoasmom sacm amaa ooma scoa acsa soc mac: use smwa 5mm :00 mmoa moam cmoa oam eao occa as» mcnm woem coma :eo meta sac: masm ccoa mama Nos mes asm muoa mmcm :sam ocoo comm aerm mcoa ormd whom :ocm ooma hora mesa ewoa mmea ooma omOa "nomad .nOOa .Noma .aoma .mmma asmOa «on mwaa¢> v02¢maozh 2H onbtaanoa aaom comm «can mmaa mmaa mmaa puma ooma puma aama mama omoa sssa mssa ooma mam mom chm «mom ween aocm moo on: men mcma mama aawa cam owe cam mac men use emoa emoa aaoa msam Noam maam mmoa acsa cooa cmm mmm mmm mao mao :ao caea maaa scea was man «an own» moon amom can: omo: oaoc ooma amoa mmma awn so: :wc coca mmoa occa anew omen cosh nmom anon crow ooma mama osma maem cmcw anon aeo can not own mms ems mum mum coo coca smea «aoa chem mm:~ meow asap comm macm ammo «mac spec mama m-~ mcmw :arm ocmm momm :aoa mmoa :aoa mama mmma ooma anew wocm coca scam :aam mocm :uma moma :mra :mma cora mara ausa ccsa mama mesa aeoa smaa :aaa moaa mama name are; mama Amma «mca mmma .hofifie «tazmcccx ay¢~a>ax arac cactaxcx nyawcoaz «cam «xocxcu axccx wxaxw axqcax czazwcxc» aruco¢z¢> «tarmcaaz cxa>¢xc wquarm anchbcp ¢r<>¢xaz uncz coo>r qumc Oac>x coarm uaz axoaq ayccmaxm sumo czaoaz armazana> acxcu a3c> cwcoaaz azchzax o>xcp amaze dtchham «taco aoazcc» axcaaca axazwcxcu apqoana> «have aoa>az uaqxa auc1Cc coaaxxcr matpcwuuoa 102 people to their collective population.2 A more detailed examination of changes that took place in the populations of cities will serve to illustrate the trends of popula- tion growth in these centers. Generally speaking, the cities that gained popula- tion during the period for which data is available were those of 100,000 or more inhabitants, or satellites of the major urban centers. The cities that lost population had 50,000 or fewer inhabitants in 1955 and were almost without exception far from the major urban centers. The cities that gained population exhibit two particularly interesting characteristics. First, most of them are located on flat or nearly flat land, the type of terrain most easily and often used for agriculture. Second, all of the larger cities such as Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka and Kobe showed striking differences in the amount of change in the populations of their internal divisions. The central divisions containing the older parts of the cities and their central business districts lost pOpulation be- tween 1960 and 1965. The divisions bordering the central areas grew at about the same rate as the total population. Outer divisions and satellite cities, however, increased 2The increase in these three prefectures accounted for forty-one percent of the increase in the total popula- tion during this period. 103 much more than the total population and in some cases by more than fifty percent. These dynamics can be illustra- ted by examining the changes that occurred in the Kobe- Osaka area. Population Change in the Kobe-Osaka Area Data on the population in selected satellite cities and internal divisions of Kobe and Osaka for the 1955-1965 period are shown in Table 8.3 The localities selected re- present a series extending from Akashi, a city west of Kobe, to a satellite city east of Osaka, Hiraoka. Although they do not rest on a straight line, the localities may be considered points on a line running from.west to east but following the shoreline of Osaka Bay and passing through; the centers of both Kobe and Osaka.4 All of the localities gained population between 1955 and 1960, and all but three gained during the 1960- 1965 period. The seven localities that grew the most, in 3The discussion of city population change in this section is based upon data for the 1955-1965 period con- tained in J.S.Y. 1966, o . cit., Table 10, pp. 20-31. A careful check of the locations of all of the cities listed was made with the aid of a series of maps in: Japan Na- tional Tourist Organization, Japan: The New Official "Guide (Tokyo, Japan: Japan Travel Bureau, Inc., 1966), pp. 299, 357, 369, 569, 637, 643, 659, 723, 829, 887, 895, 949, 997. 4An exact straight line traverse from Akashi to Hiraoka would be of little use in illustrating population changes as about two-thirds of the line would pass over Osaka Bay. 104 .moma .aomoc .omxoa .ooma xoonuoow aooaumapmum somwc "oonsom o.co o.aa m.ae a.cm m.me exonnam o.eo m.mm m.aa a.mm m.ae aooezms e.a~ o.a~ m.amm m.mam a.maa when m.ma o.cm m.amm m.aam m.mea nxuouon m.aa- c.m c.m» m.ao c.mm sxunuas m.mu 4.4 o.om 4.4a a.cm nxteaaonnxna a.m m.mm m.ama a.maa o.aa sxunanmenosaonaz neoana>an aennmuea «memo a.mm m.om o.aom o.ooe m.mmm axnnnmnaa m.mm m.aa m.omm m.mom m.oam emaneaenaz m.oa m.aa m.mm 0.5m o.am asaena o.oa a.e~ a.mma m.ama m.moa nxrmpenaennmam a.m m.ma o.aoa a.mma m.mma exinpez a.a o.e~ m.aa m.ma p.4e axianaxnm a.m- a.e m.oe a.mm m.am nxumusxa m.o m.ma a.am~ m.mmm e.aa~ axiomosm a.m a.m m.aam m.mom m.ama exumunmmz o.ca m.aa m.moa m.mm a.cm sateenm m.mm m.oa c.mea o.aaa m.mm nxuaennme mnoama>aa aocuouna mmom a.mm m.m m.ama m.ama m.oma annexe I I am.oooac am.oooac am.oooac mo ooma om mmaa moaa ooma mmaa suaamooq omaosu w omaoco a .mom .mom .mom momaimmaa noaunanaoa ”moum omeOIoQOM m oanoa 105 both absolute and percentage terms, during the 1960-1965 period were the suburban localities in the area between Kobe and Osaka and at either end of the traverse. The nine that grew at a moderate rate during the later period were those adjacent to the central portions of the two major cities. Those losing pOpulation in the 1960-1965 period were the older parts of the cities and the central business districts of Kobe and Osaka. The percentage change in the population of each locality for both the 1955-1960 and 1960-1965 periods is illustrated in Figure 8. A definite wave-like pattern is seen in the lines connecting the population changes in the localities. These lines, particularly the one representing change between 1960 and 1965, fit the pattern described by Blumenfeld and Wolf as characterizing the metropolitan "tidal wave" of urban expansion.5 The neo-urban zones of most rapid pOpulation growth are represented by the west- ern division of Kobe, Tarumi-ku, and Osaka's eastern sat- ellite City, Kawachi. The secondary wave crest between Kobe and Osaka, formed.by Nishinomiya and Amagasaki, in- dicates a rapid filling in of the area between the two major cities. The peri-urban zones toward which the wave crests are moving are represented by the satellite cities of Akashi on the western end of the traverse and Hiraoka on the eastern end. 5Blumenfeld, op. cit.; Wolf, op. cit. 106 Figure 8. Percentage Changes in the POpulation of Selected Localities on an East-West Line in the Kobe-Osaka Area, 1955-60, 1960-65 107 ,l\ 3. -2219 3. 63:2322 .m 3.82: n 38:... .m. 3.23. .9 26333.»... 37862 .m 372682 .v Eoozax .m. 3652.33.14. 6:62.222 .__ 3.12.3... N 37926 .n one... .t aa-ozooopooerz .m. 222.0. 3723: .o 3.1523 .m 28.2.. _ _ 1.3.9.5 .652... Simo— r _ r 22.35 .6525 mmox _ _ _ m. 0. h. w. 0. av. n. N. _. O. m 0 b O n .v n N _ .9... :9. .0... 4H}- .. . .....o.. J a. I x)! \I ..\.. ..................... \.....//....\.\....... .......... \.\.... O- s > \I \ (\ ll \\ O— s I \\ I; x I \ I x I \ II II\ .:.I.II...... 2‘: .../z ......... // .\\..... ..v...\ .....t::..:.. ON I‘ll“)/ ’(\ I”l\\ (\ ’1‘ ON I/ on On acootoa .oa; a.m... .. 39-08. I owm. .39 II .8; ................... ...... co:o_:aon_ E omcozu Emotoa 108 Patterns in the population data for Tokyo, Yokohama, Nagoya, Kyoto and Kitu-Kyushu are similar to those of Kobe and Osaka. Studies of major cities such as Tokyo,6 Sendai,7 and‘Sapporo,8 have-revealed a general population movement from the central parts of the cities and to the suburban areas. One of the consequences of this movement has been an increase in the amount of land devoted entirely to urban uses as indicated by increases in the areas described as "densely inhabited districts" of the cities.9 Expansion of- urban areas has also been noted in newly develOped industrial 6Hiroshi Kawabe, "The Study on the Areal Differences of Migration in Tokyo," Science Raports of the Tohoku Uni- versity (7th series), 13:79-93, March, 1964. 7Ken-ichi Tanabe, "Housing Suburbs at the Northern Part of Sendai," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 12:138-142, March, 1963; Norio Hasegawa, Spatial Variation of Land Value and Land Use--Case Study of Sendai and Hirosaki," Science Re orts of the Tohoku Uni- versity (7th series), I2:157, MarcH, I963; Setsuo Ogasawara, Recent Changes in and Around the Urban Area of Sendai," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 15:119-121, March, 1966. 8Setsuo Ogasawara, "Population Movement in Sapporo Metropolitan Area," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 16:85-93, March, 1967. 9"A densely inhabited district is a group of con- tiguous [census] enumeration districts with high population density (4000 inhabitants or more per square kilometer) delinated [sic] within the boundary of city, town or village constituting an agglomeration of 5000 inhabitants or more. . . ." The total area included in densely inhab- ited districts increased 73,970 hectares between 1960 and 1965. J.S.Y. 1966, op. cit., pp. 20-21.- 109 cities along the northwestern coast of Honshu.10 Indeed, data related to urban areas on the prefectural level show that it increased in all prefectures during the 1955-1968 period (Table 9). A conclusion that may be drawn from this data is that urban expansion has been and is going on in Japan and most likely will continue to occur in the coming years. The effects of this expansion, that is, where it will most likely affect agriculture and changes in the amount of cultivated land available, are suggested by changes in the amount of cultivated land. Change in Cultivated Area Information on the amount of cultivated land in each prefecture in the years from 1955 through 1968 is presented in Table 10. A careful examination of the data reveal three separate periods of change within the fourteen year period covered. Between 1955 and 1957 twenty-three of the forty-six prefectures registered decreases in their cultivated areas.11 The losing prefectures were fairly 10Ken-ichi Tanabe, "Some Examples of the Type of Urbanization Under the Influence of Industrialization," Science Reports of the Tohoku Universihy (7th series), 13:147-156, March, 1964.} llCultivated land includes all lands devoted to agricultural production. In successive editions of the Japan Statistical Yearbook cultivated land is reported as being equal to arable land. See, for example: J.pr, 1969, op. cit., Table 55, p. 104, and Table 62, p. 113. Since land temporarily taken out of production could reasonably 110 owuaa¢> cupcauaawhrw mac sowa axe ooma aeoOa 19:01:» aooa aumva .hmwa nomca «cu mwaa<> muuhwzoahx wacacm 7h cuoc asnw ohnm osnw osnu ewnu cmnm onnw NNnN ocnw mNcN mesa meha mesa mesa etaxmouex en- @NNN eoNN Osdw gnaw NNcN need moou Oahu «com cued caea caea owed quNq>H1 baud omba meow enoa ooma nema hoea Nwea ocea Jana aura acna «ona «era «hwo aena coma ooma send enna aona osna mhna nsna 00am oeo $00 eve 000 Chorals: caNa aaNa cha coma awaa ehaa Oman onma «Nam Gcca smca hmca hmca hwca Hx¢M¢o smma mmma Nmma cwma menu cema mnma cnma mwma Mama acaa Ncaa mcaa ecaa czurmcuuz mama aaha Ocsa scka ncba coca eoou emu" moon emOa rmoa nmoa nwoa nmoa atarcxo naea need neea ncea noea Nwea Noea aoea coed acea aana aana aana aama uzcxwzw anm mum can Nam cam can flow ecm acm one ese mhe mse mhe Hmohho» 00¢ #00 swo soc oeo owo coo mom mom hoe cor com cor oer cza>1 acea send ehna aona amna mena Nana ana Nana meaa hno 580 new use arcwc wmcw owcw owcm omcw omcm owcw ONcN cmcm omcm mama Occa occa ocra coca Ohc>x 0am com New eee eee eee nee nee nee nme NNe «we Nme mme «warm ooma mmoa aoca coca swam Luca hoca 000a 000a ccca ersa ersa ensa emsa uwt eoaN caaw mmcw @wcw 000a chew Neva eawa scam anha Nova Nona Nwma Nana “Iona mesw aosm nwsm mwhw Nmom anew cth Ocmm ceew Naaw mksa WNNa mssa mkka cYCDNHxv ooma coca mmOa cmOa swam ecOa aoma omma mnma neea cmma cmna mera wema :uHc cman econ oacn Nmom meow sccw mnsm nowm aomm NNNN Mora ecoa ooma meta 02cc¢z eaaa eada eaaa eaaa eaaa eaaa eaaa eaaa eaaa caaa ocaa ocaa meaa weaa Hrvc241a> cmoa mama csma aema mnma nwma eama mcma caea nmea cmMa cmna cmra cmra nzxau mmsa mmsa ewsa ewsa aasa swoa eoca cnwa omoa c0Ma ecca eoca eoca eoca asexulmh scaa osaa cwaa wean scaa rhca onca mcca csw new mac 0am oao wag qr¢>cv New» Nemm Newn Newt ewmn ocmn ccen csem Nmen wean cece smcr cmcr each «ecu—Hz swna mmna ewna mmna mama ecma mmwa ooma puma «wwa osaa osaa wsaa osaa azqoc‘ay msaa noaa ewaa mead Nmaa ewca osca nmca cMca ese vac cao mac («6 o>xo» oecN omen our" sssa nwha osoa wwwa coma cnma oeea beta noMa smra hora «a—IU cmea one" NNea ocea ecea ccea owna Nona ooma ecma maca maca Gama data cchacv emaa aaaa cwca mrca mnca ewca emca eeca nnca smc aec aeo aec aec «zinc meam eoam ewam ewam mmam Nocm aecm cccw @woa ceca orna cesa eena mesa HuHILOF rmwa nema nwma mwma rcma mama Nova Noma woma Nora mwaa aoaa aoaa auaa bucocaa cram chmn comm anew Neow nmew eoNN mscw coca aesa mama ncma umma mama drprwzxau camm swan ecan cwcm smcn nwcn cacn ooww novw eemN mcam mcac mcao mean cpcoc1a> ocaa chow amen mwoa nmoa mwoa nwoa ”Now nwca caca mafia nos. «aha nona crayq mema omwa hcma scam scan smaa scaa kcaa soaa woo Nos aos aux ccs ~u<>w1 ream when open osom coon Noon noon mrmn soon (con omen emcr rnur moan urqxa ream ceNN oeNN cemm eeNN enmw enNN cMNN mnmw ssOa mama rnka rnna (aha Faeroe asnma Osman eccaa senaa wmaaa awoca nooca meeca scmca eroc News ouch «aux rues cchqxxc: roma nova coca meoa eoma moOa Nova «ova coma omoa nova mama «moa umaa uozhtuuuoc momaimmma .ouspoomoam an pond conHD “canon .m oanoa llfll neoa Geo sno mama eOo ooo esma emu 990 who amm omo asoa ooaa mas aan ooe ooh eoaa on» com ans ooo mmna aema emu oesa eoe com omo mmo oaem oae 0am msoa onea aoaa omna oanm osom ooma Gama amsa omsa sooa nsoo ooma aooa oaoa sne ooma oso moo osma can one oen onm moo osoa noma ems aan soe om» Dcma oen mam mes coca omna ooma eoa eosa moe mom moo soo smem cme onm mooa noea aeaa mmoa omnm meow omna eema mesa oasa casa naoo sooa oaaa saaa mum ooma man can ooma non a.m com mam sea aoaa mama on» -m one man o-a own tam ac» omaa aona ooma can oaaa no: aem «no me. swam no: mom mama owoa aoaa ooma neam c.a~ mama mama oasa casa mama name coca momaimmma .onsaoomoum ma ooud oouo>auado mava smoa amo ooma ooo aoo moma ooa moo oem mnm moo nooa emma ans mmm eoe ace Onma aon aem ens omca aaea Nona now ccoa Now eon ooo sso eamm 0cm ssm amma oama ecma aoma nenm mcam Mcma aeoa masa smsa coca emmc mafia onwaae> ouroa0¢¢thu we. aooa 08¢ Onoa omaa anoa one ewua svo nos ooma oso coo can ooh sao eoaa osma aes mmo eoe oce oema sun mom aes snoa omea mmna awe amoa mom can moo coo smmm eem wwm omoa sena mama coma ommm ooam coea mnma smsa amsa eoOa come ecOa emoa mmca oem coma ooo eon mmma aom oso mom oem oao s-aa ssma mes emm moe mae mmma nae mmm mes meca asea cema mmo emoa com coo aos moo ommm aom oam mmma moma amma coma merm maam moea mmma omsa mama cooa comm ooma aeoa Onoa see Osna eoo ass ooma a.m oso emu ”no NNO Oaaa ooma cos 9mm Noe nae Ooma ame con oes oeca noea ooma eoca emoa can one ocs owo semm nom nom eeea soma mmma mcma smmm caam ooea eama omsa sasa nsoa mseo mwwa whoa onoa oem asoa ee- sos ooma eon no. mom smm ONO omaa ooma ans mmn Nee sae ooma one eom nos cmoa ncma ooma maoa cooa scm eow ocs oso mmmm oco oem aewa ocwa Gama eeea mcnm scam moea ooma omsa eewa emwa emme aowa snua onoa oeo nova no. mos $ONa coo coo mum amm omv nmaa ooma mos 0mm awe oae msma owe oom sms mmoa amma osna cmca oooa mom eoo cas mso ommm mmo 0mm omoa naoa mama moea oomm ecam osea owea nmsa csoa eeoa mseo cooa nomaa nooua can muaao> mesa coo meo noea aeo cas ooma mom oao onm mom Gso asoa oama sms ooe ome non aoaa ome now nns mcca omea moma 00w oosa woe osm Oso meo saem com em» awoa ooma ooaa meea ooam oooa emea mmea caoa nsma ooma seoo Omoa a.ma mama cNo up. an. oak Naca -na can can pee nno onNa neua a~m ea. can nan mam so. noe eoe on. so» oaea too saaa saga ~aa use as. n.: on. man no» as» aaaa anea an» app ac. ca; .an ace owe aao Sana nena Noaa coca tap on. sana awoa ~n. am. can can one nae nae men oann cra~ 0mm a~m car a.» mesa once aama oaea eNaa naaa eeaa amna oaa~ amen oeea amaa mama aNna ampa Nana saga mama papa mama nnca aana aa.o Nose amaa been "commc mumswtoaax wueaam 2H once saea Noea eoo aoo uss 0ss msna omea mes ems one oeo soma ooma woe mom mns nms noe ooe nee Noe sao ewo oev omv mvca Ocaa smo smo nee nee soe Nme son eon neoa mmca osm Nam ace ewe aso woo eme one enna aora meaa mcaa ooo ooo omoa cmoa mme oee sam eam omo eno ac: ca: mmam amam mmm com men aen oooa Ncsa rhea ooma aOca oaaa wara acma aoca nnoa omsa ocsa Nona noma roma moma ooma sera wmra moma mwra omra emss oats omea mama .oa oaome (turmowex aonorux osHo Chetotax onwouoz «Dew oxoaxau quox wtnzw (zoom! (tutmaxch quauote> oxwzmonwx oro>¢yo mzotnxw HtOthh etoroxex one: ouc>x creme oso>x (whim wnt alone excamnxm Dunc oxecez ~1w42o11> Hanan oxoxnxma ¢I¢>Oh eseonuz «rooozex o>XOh ochru etebncm exxso HonLos axoucma ethmaxau osoooze> chard acorn: who!» H0010. canoxxox wubsuwukca 112 evenly distributed throughout the entire country except for the northern portion of Honshu and Hokkaido. Only two among the ten northernmost prefectures, Aomori and Akita, lost cultivated land. Even though the cultivated area in half of the prefectures decreased, the losses were more than offset by gains in other prefectures there- by resulting in overall net increases in cultivated area. The second period of change occurred between 1958 and 1960. In these years all prefectures recorded increases in their cultivated area. However, beginning in 1961, the first year of the third period, losses were reported once again, first in the prefectures in and near the Tokyo- Osaka industrial belt and later throughout the entire country. In 1967 thirty-nine prefectures reported de- creases in their cultivated areas totaling 58,000 hectares. In 1968 fewer prefectures reported losses (thirty-six), but the total decrease in cultivated area was still quite large-- 41,000 hectares. Throughout the entire fourteen year per- iod only Yamagata prefecture in northern Honshu did not re- port decreases in its cultivated area. Two points must be made concerning the data in Table 10 and its interpretation. First, it represents net be expected to be recorded asta decrease in cultivated area, and only land permanently removed from production could be expected to effect the amount of arable land available, the inference that may be made from the available data is that the decreases in cultivated area.are of a permanent rather than a temporary nature. 113 changes in the cultivated area of each prefecture. Conse- quently, it cannot be determined how much land was taken out of production in one place and new land in another place put into production to replace it. Secondly, there are at least two basic reasons for the decreases in culti- vated area, especially in the years from 1961 through 1968. The decreases in the industrial belt that stretches from the Tokyo area to Osaka and Kita-Kushu were probably due in large part to urban expansion. In the outlying prefec- tures however, a large portion of the losses should prob- ably be attributed to abandonment of marginal farm land by people who migrated to the cities. In several prefectures on the islands of Kyushu and Shikoku and on the western side of Honshu the decreases in agricultural land were accompanied or preceded by decreases in population. For example, the decreases in cultivated area that started in 1963 in Miyazaki and Kagoshima prefectures on Kyushu were preceded by population decreases that started in 1957 and continued through 1968. A similar pattern is present in the data for Shimane and Niigata prefectures on the western coast of Honshu. In light of these two points it would be a mistake to conclude that no new land has been put into agricultural production in those prefectures that lost population in re- cent years. It would also be a mistake to conclude on the basis of these data that all land removed from agricultural 114 production was the victim of urban expansion. Thus even with available detailed data related to the population and the urban area and cultivated area it is difficult to deter- mine where, and to what extent, growing urban centers have encroached on agricultural land in Japan. A means of sort- ing out the differences between the urban and agricultural prefectures, identifying their distinguishing characteris- tics, and clarifying the uncertain patterns in the popula- tion and areal data are needed. An examination of a series of variables related to urban and agricultural functions would seem to be a reasonable way to accomplish such a task. Two descriptive mathematic techniques, factor analysis and discriminant analysis, provide a means of testing the appro- priateness of groupings of prefectures made on the basis of selected variables. CHAPTER II FACTOR ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS The data was factor analyzed and the principal axis solution yielded seven factors with eigenvalues greater than 1.0 that accounted for 88.05 percent of the total vari- ance. These factors were then rotated using the varimax method.12 The seven rotated factors were assigned names on the basis of the variables with the highest loading on each factor. The factors are listed in Table 11 with the propor- tion of total variance accounted for by each.‘ Each of the factors represents a particular set of variables which in turn measure specific characteristics. The grain factor for example represents the variables mea- suring grain production throughout Japan. The factor scores associated with the grain factor may be considered as a 12James Peterson, Glenn Foster, and Robert Paul, FACTOR AA (Technical Report No. 34.1), (East Lansing, Michi- gan: Computer Institute for Social Science Research, Michi- gan State University, May, 1969); Leighton A. Price and James Peterson, Control Cards For Programs on the New 6500 CISSR Library System (Technical Report No. 70-17, (East Lansing, Michigan: Computer Institute for Social Science Research, Michigan State University, June, 1970). A dis- cussion of Factor Analysis, Discriminant Analysis and the data used in this study may be found in Appendix B. 115 116 Table 11 Factors and Preportion of Total Variance Accounted for by Each Factor PrOportion of Factor Variance Urban 35.90 Grain 13.73 Agricultural Employment 11.99 Farm 10.13 Unemployment 6.60 Elderly Population 5.08 Orchard Land 4.62 single measure of grain production. By mapping these scores, the prefectures in which grain production is prom- inent may be easily discerned. Similarly, the scores asso- ciated with the other factors may be mapped to locate the prefectures in which their characteristics are most pro- nounced. Since one of the objectives of this study is to differentiate urban from agricultural areas, a considera- tion of the factor scores is appropriate. Only the scores associated with the factors were mapped that individually accounted for ten percent or more of the total variance in the data. Because the urban and agricultural employment factors contain dichotomies that represent opposite poles of an urban-agricultural spectrum, they will be considered first. 117 Tokyo, Kanagawa and Osaka Prefectures have the highest positive scores on the urban factor (Figure 9).13 The high scores indicate the presence in these prefectures of the characteristics represented by the variables that have high positive loadings on the urban factor. Aichi Prefecture has a somewhat lower score but still stands out among the others as an urban prefecture. Each of these prefectures contains a major city of over one million in- habitants, several with over 100,000 inhabitants, and very 14 A review of few having p0pulations of less than 50,000. the raw data revealed that they also have an abundance of transportation facilities, high population densities in both DID's and the prefectures as a whole, and higher average income per household than other prefectures. Con- versely, comparatively little of their population or area is classified rural. The proportion of the population and households counted in the farm classification is also low. The urban nature of these four prefectures was, therefore, quite clear and they were readily classified urban. In the prefectures that had only moderate positive scores the urban characteristics are not particularly prominent. Con- sequently, to classify them as urban on the basis of this factor would be, at best, a tenuous decision. 13A complete listing of the factor scores may be found in Appendix E. 14J.S.Y. 1966, 92. cit., Table 10, pp. 23-24, 26-28. 118 Figure 9. Factor Scores: The Urban Factor Figure 10. Factor Scores: The Agricultural Employment Factor 119 m G _ 5. 0 I: 00- 0.499 c.m-0.499 N -05— ~0999 -I.o - - L499 '15 and Below m” .0 AM .m— a 5.0 \\ Employment Factor Agricultural 120 Several prefectures have moderate negative scores on the urban factor, indicating the presence of variables that loaded negatively on this factor. An examination of the data showed that the prefectures with scores between -0.50 and -0.99 have comparatively large proportions of their area and population classified rural. In addition, their farm populations are larger than those of most other prefectures, and the percent of the labor force employed in agriculture well above the national average. Finally, each of these prefectures has a large pr0portion of its cities in the under 50,000 pOpulation category and a large percentage of its population living in these smaller cities. Even though their factor scores are not high,15 it seemed reasonable to tentatively classify the prefectures with scores between -0.50 and -0.99 as agricultural. The dichotomy represented by the agricultural em- ployment factor is strikingly revealed by the map of its factor scores (Figure 10). The most notable feature of the map is the concentration of prefectures with high nega- tive scores in the central portion of Honshu and the com- plementary concentration of positive scores in the northern and southern parts of the country. The prefectures with 15The use of the descriptive terms "high" and "low" should be interpreted as indicating the absolute values of factor scores rather than the signed values. For example, a negative score of -l.3 is considered high while a score of -0.3 is considered low. 121 high positive scores have large portions of their labor force employed in agriculture, have been the beneficiaries of large government expenditures on a per capita basis, and have experienced considerable population decreases. Those with moderate scores between 0.50 and 0.99 also exhibit these characteristics although not as strongly as the pre- fectures with the highest scores. Prefectures having high negative scores also exhibit some distinguishing characteristics. First of all the per- cent of the labor force engaged in manufacturing is higher than in other prefectures. Secondly, income per household is also higher than elsewhere in the country. Third, these prefectures experienced population increases of as much as twenty-eight percent during the 1960-1965 period. Finally, government expenditures per capita were considerably below the national average.16 On the basis of the scores associated with the agri- cultural employment factor, it was possible to confirm fur- ther the urban or agricultural nature of several prefectures. Akita Prefecture, for example, has a moderate negative score on the urban factor and a high positive score on the agri- cultural employment factor. Therefore, it was labeled 16The average government expenditure per capita in the five prefectures having the highest negative scores was more than 1.5 standard deviation units below the national average, a difference representing $25.79. 122 an agricultural prefecture. Similarly, the urban nature of Kanagawa Prefecture is confirmed by its high negative score on the agricultural employment factor. Labeling other pre- fectures, however, presented some problems. Tokyo Prefecture, for example has high positive scores on both factors discussed thus far, indicating the strong presence of both urban and agricultural characteris- tics. The data showed that in Tokyo Prefecture government expenditures per capita were quite high, a characteristic associated with agricultural rather than urban prefectures. On other variables measuring agricultural qualities, however, the figures for Tokyo were similar to those of other urban prefectures. Furthermore, the figures on manufacturing em- ployment, income, and population increase approximated those recorded for Kanagawa, Aichi and Osaka Prefectures. There- fore, the anomalous score on the agricultural employment factor was disregarded and Tokyo Prefecture was retained with those previously classified urban. Other prefectures such as Gifu and Nara presented problems in classification that could not be satisfactorily resolved by referring to the data. Consequently, no final decision was made as to whether they, as well as others, are urban or agricultural prefectures. The scores for the grain factor highlight two areas of grain production (Figure 11). The prefectures of the Kanto Plain, including all or parts of Ibaraki, Tochigi, 123 Figure 11. Factor Scores: The Grain Factor Figure 12. Factor Scores: The Farm Factor 124 - LS and Above - l.O— L499 0.5 - 0.999 [::I 0.0- 0.499 [:1 00-0499 \\\\\\‘ -0.5--0999 -I.o --l.499 \\\\\ '|.5 and Below Grain Factor 125 Gumma, Chiba, Saitama, Tokyo and Kanagawa, comprise the :nnst important group based on factor scores and actual pro- duction.“ Ibaraki and Tochigi Prefectures have the highest scores and are in fact the primary grain producing prefec- tures in the country. The second group is made up of- Kumamoto and Kagoshima Prefectures on Kyushu, but their status as grain producers is notably below that of the Kanto Plain group. Although the grain factor does identify at least two prefectures, Ibaraki and Tochigi, as primary grain pro- ducers and indicates the prominence of several others, it does little else. It is a narrowly specific factor repre- senting one aspect of agriculture with a high degree of. selectivity. Of the prefectures having positive scores on this factor (indicating a relative "lack" of grain produc- tion) little can be said other than that they are the less prominent producers of grain. By itself, the grain factor is limited in its usefulness to indicating where a partic- ular type of agricultural activity is prevalent. The map of scores of the farm factor basically shows the prefectures that have large proportions of their area under cultivation (Figure 12). This explains why they have a larger number of farm households and farm machines per square kilometer than other prefectures. All the vari- ables representing these items have high loadings on the farm factor. The map of the scores of the farm factor 126 indicates the prefectures that have proportionally large amounts of farm land available and in use within their boundaries. It is noteworthy that two of the prefectures already classified urban, Osaka and Aichi, have high scores on this factor. Two others, Saitama and Chiba, are contig- uous with Tokyo Prefecture. Finally, all seven of the pre- fectures with high scores are characterized by having part or all of a large plain within their borders on which large 17 The data for urban area and growing cities are located. in Table 9 reveals that, with the exception of Fukuoka and Saga Prefectures, increases in urban area ranging from thirty-five to eighty-two percent occurred in these prefec- tures between 1955 and 1968. Thus, the prefectures with the highest scores on the farm factor exhibit characteris- tics that are both urban and agricultural. Moreover, since this group contains the prefectures that have been classi- fied urban and others that are contiguous with an urban prefecture it might be concluded that these are prefectures in which urban expansion onto agricultural land probably is occurring. l7Saga Prefecture on the island of Kyushu may be the exception to this statement. While it has a large area of what may be considered plain, the major city, Saga, had a poPulation of 135,000 in 1965 and barely qualifies as a "large" city when compared with the others. In addition, its population increased only seven percent during the 1955-1965 period while the national population increased ten percent. 127 Hokkaido Prefecture's high negative score stands out on the map of the farm factor and merits an explanation. Because of Hokkaido's large size, the measures standardized on the basis of area have consistently low values. The high negative score on the farm factor therefore represents an anomaly in the data rather than an actual "lack" of farm land and the things associated with it. Indeed, a review of the data presented in Table 10 reveals that Hokkaido has a larger cultivated area than any of the other prefeCtures. Standardizing the data on the basis of total prefectural area, however, resulted in an overcompensation and distor- tion in the case of Hokkaido Prefecture.- In the absence of a satisfactory method for correcting the distortion, it was simply accepted as one of the limits of the data.18 18Several attempts were made to derive a constant that could be applied to the areally based variables to re- duce the effect of Hokkaido Prefecture's large area. None of them,however, proved to be satisfactory. They tended to result in selective distortions less acceptable than those caused by the large area value alone. Consequently, the large area value was used as the basis for standardiza- tion even though it resulted in a certain degree of misre- presentation. To test for the effect of the low values for several variables on the results of the factor analysis the analysis was repeated with Hokkaido Prefecture excluded from consideration. The variable measuring households per thousand population was also dropped from the data set in order to maintain the symmetry of the data matrix. This variable was selected for exclusion because of its rela- tively low loadings in the original factor analysis. The results of the analysis of the modified data set were virtually identical to those of the original analysis.- The same factors were derived and the factor loadings and scores had a high degree of similarity with those obtained earlier. The percent of total variance accounted for 128 The scores of the unemployment, elderly population, and orchard land factors revealed patterns among the prefec- tures that correspond closely with patterns in the few vari- ables they represent. The islands of Kyushu and Shikoku stand out as areas of "high" unemployment along with Wakayama and Hokkaido Prefectures. Northern and central western Honshu contain prefectures experiencing a "low" rate of unem— ployment.19 The elderly population factor is most prominent in the prefectures of southwestern Honshu and Shikoku. This is generally the part of the country that has been settled the longest. It is also the area which experienced popula- tion decreases during the 1965-1968 period. The more re- cently settled "frontier" prefectures of northern Honshu and Hokkaido have much smaller proportions of their populations in the sixty-five and over age bracket and have negative scores on the elderly p0pu1ation factor. Finally, the pre- fectures having the largest portion of their cultivated areas planted to orchard crops are pinpointed by the orchard land factor. Gumma, Saitama, Yamanashi and Nagano consti- tute the largest group of contiguous prefectures in which declined slightly from 88.05 to 86.23. Since the difference between the results of the two analyses were slight, the results with Hokkaido Prefecture included were selected for discussion and evaluation. 19Unemployment in 1965 ranged from 0.44 percent in Niigata Prefecture to 2.09 percent in Fukuoka Prefecture. 129 orchard land and crops, as well as silk production, are prominent. Wakayama and Ehime have slightly lower scores, but are still among the prominently orchard oriented pre— fectures. After carefully evaluating the results of the fac- tor analysis and reviewing the data set, I assembled five groups of prefectures primarily on the basis of their fac- tor scores (Table 12). Three of the groups contained pre- fectures exhibiting agricultural characteristics repre- sented by the urban, agricultural employment, unemployment, grain and elderly population factors. These groups con- tained most of the prefectures in northern and southern Honshu, Shikoku and Kyushu. The northern and west coast group represented prefectures with negative scores on the urban and elderly population factors and positive scores on the agricultural employment and unemployment factors. The southern group included prefectures with negative scores on the urban and unemployment factors and positive scores on the agricultural employment and elderly popula- tion factors. The third agriculturally oriented group was made up of the prominent grain producing prefectures on the Kanto Plain. The fourth group of prefectures contained those with either high positive scores on the urban factor or high negative scores on the agricultural factor, both of which indicated the presence of urban qualities. Fukuoka 130 Table 12 Prefectural Groupings Based On Factor Scores Northern & West Coast Southern Grain Urban Undefined Hokkaido Tokushima Ibaraki Tokyo Yamanashi Aomori Kagawa Tochigi Kanagawa Nagano Iwate Ehime Gumma Aichi Gifu Miyagi Kochi Saitama Kyoto Shizuoka Akita Saga Chiba Osaka Mie Yamagata Nagasaki Hyogo Shiga Fukushima Kumamoto Fukuoka Nara Niigata Oita Wakayama Toyama Miyazaki Okayama Ishikawa Kagoshima Hiroshima Fukui Yamaguchi Tottori Shimane 131 Prefecture was placed in the urban group because it was the only prefecture on Kyushu or Shikoku with a negative score on the agricultural employment factor, with a high score on the farm factor, and containing a city of over one million people. The fifth group comprised all of the remaining pre- fectures which did not seem to fit into any of the other four groups. The factor scores for all five groups were then submitted to discriminant analysis to test the appro- priateness of the groupings. CHAPTER III DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS: THE RESULTS The results of the discriminant analysis indicated that some of the prefectures had not been properly assigned.20 Several had high probabilities of belonging to groups other than those to which they originally had been allocated. Therefore, the groups were altered and a second discriminant analysis model tested. After several alternative groupings were tested, the one which yielded the highest probabilities for each group was selected for discussion and evaluation.21 The importance of each of the factors in discriminating be- tween the groups is indicated by the coefficients of the linear discriminant functions (Table 13). The signs of the coefficients are associated with the signs of the factor scores. The negative sign of the coefficient for the urban factor in the Northern and West Coast group, for example, 20Kevin Kay and Rodney C. Kirk, BMDOSM--Discriminant Analysis For Several Groups (Technical Report 31), (East Lansing, Michigan: Computer Institute for Social Science Research, Michigan State University, June, 1967). 21A complete listing of the probabilities of each prefecture belonging to each group may be found in Appendix F. 132 133 vmmmo.on mmmam.ol mamom.al mmnmm.o: Hmomn.a HOHOMh pawn phonouo Nhhba.~ mmmhh.o1 mnmmm.ml Nono~.wl hammh.v Houomm psmEmon lam Homopasofiumfl Navam.o vommn.o mummv.o mom¢H.oI momow.al Houomm coflumasmom Maumpam Hemmo.o hmmvm.0l mmaav.m memv.a mmmma.~n Houomm Such mamom.al mbmaa.o mmomm.ml mnmnm.on vmama.m Houomm pcmfiwoamfimcb moomw.o mmmmh.o hmomo.ml bmmmw.hl Nonam.m Houomm cfimuw «moom.al _ mmmav.o: ommhm.> mmomm.m mmvm>.ml Houomm swan: mom pamacH HmanumSch assuumspsH umxmmm unmoo um03 manmwum> can snwnusom Iwfimm \GMQHD nacho cam snmnuuoz muonw mcowuussm unmqflawuomwn ummcflq mo musmfiowmmmou ma OHQMB 134 indicates that negative factor scores were important in distinguishing the members of this group from the other prefectures. Similarly, positive scores on the agricul- tural employment factor were also important in distinguish- ing the members of this group. The magnitude of the coef- ficients of the urban and agricultural employment factors indicates those most important in discriminating between the groups. The prefectures comprising each group together with the slightly revised group labels are shown in Table 14. Reassignment of Prefectures As can be seen by comparing Tables 13 and 14, three prefectures, Shiga, Saitama and Yamaguchi, were placed in groups different from those to which they were originally assigned. Placing Shiga and Yamaguchi Prefectures in the decidedly agricultural Northern and West Coast and Southern and Inland Sea Coast groups respectively was reasonable on the basis of their probabilities of belonging with those groups.22 In addition, their factor scores and values in the data set are similar to others in their respective groups. 2The apprOpriateness of Shiga Prefecture's member- ship in the Northern and West Coast group is almost a cer- tainty, as is reflected by the .97 probability of its be- longing with this group. The probability associated with Yamaguchi Prefecture's membership in the Southern and ":39 J IL -.I.! a“ ‘1. ‘nm 9‘ net. I " 135 Table 14 Five Groups Derived Through Discriminant Analysis of Factor Scores Southern & Northern & Inland Sea Grain Urban/ Semi- West Coast Coast Basket Industrial Industrial Hokkaido Yamaguchi Ibaraki Saitama Yamanashi E Aomori Tokushima Tochigi Tokyo Nagano g Iwate Kagawa Gumma Kanagawa Gifu E Miyagi Ehime Chiba Aichi Shizuoka 13 Akita Kochi Kyoto Mie F Yamagata Saga Osaka Nara Fukushima Nagasaki Hyogo Wakayama Niigata Kumamoto Fukuoka Okayama Toyama Oita Hiroshima Ishikawa Miyazaki Fukui Kagoshima Shiga Tottori Shimane 136 The reassignment of Saitama Prefecture from the agriculture oriented Grain Basket group to the Urban/Indus- trial group was surprising, although not unexpected. Its original placement in the Grain group was based upon high factor scores on the grain and orchard land factors. The high negative score on the agricultural employment factor was discounted because of the very low score on the urban factor. The possibility that Saitama might actually be a prefecture having more urban than agricultural qualities was not, however, disregarded. When it was found to have a surprisingly high probability (.97) of belonging in the Urban/Industrial group an explanation was sought in both the data and the literature. Data on urban population showed that a sixty-seven percent increase occurred between 1955 and 1965 in the pop- ulation of cities of over 30,000 inhabitants. Three of the cities closest to Tokyo had a population increase of more than one hundred percent.23 In addition, data used in the factor analysis showed Saitama to have labor force and population characteristics more like those of the Inland Sea Coast group is somewhat lower, being only .65. It also has a .35 probability of belonging to the Semi- Industrial Group. This secondary association most likely reflects the influence of the industrial cities of Shimonoseki and Ube which lie across the Straits of Shimonoseki opposite Kita-Kyushu, the iron and steel center of southwestern Japan. 23J.S.Y. 1966, op. cit., Table 10, p. 22. All three are less than 20 kiIometers from the city limits of Tokyo. f! 4." _.ng —A". AU. “'4' -.". pg". 9". 137 Urban/Industrial group than the Grain Basket group. Final- ly, the literature describing the prefecture indicates that it has been "invaded" by industry and large numbers of peo- 24 Its importance as a ple who commute to work in Tokyo. grain producing prefecture notwithstanding, therefore, the reassignment of Saitama to the Urban/Industrial group was both reasonable and understandable. The Semi-Industrial Group While the characteristics of the agriculture ori- ented groups and the Urban/Industrial group have been made clear by the discussion of the factors and factor scores, those of the prefectures in the SemieIndustrial group are not so readily apparent. The name used to identify group, however, is indicative of their general nature. All of the prefectures in this group have scores on the urban and agricultural employment factors indicating urban qualities. They are not as high, though, as those of the prefectures 24A study by John D. Eyre based on research conduc- ted during 1958 and 1961 and containing a number of useful references was published in 1963. In it the commuting -range of and facilities available to commuters are discussed and maps showing the concentration of various industries in the districts bordering Tokyo Prefecture presented. John D. Eyre, "Tokyo Influences in the Manufacturing Geography of Saitama Prefecture," Economic Geography, 39: 283-298, October, 1963. 138 in the Urban/Industrial group. The results of the discrim- inant analysis do indicate however that the prefectures of the Semi-Industrial group constitute a viable group of and by themselves. Most prefectures classified in the Semi-Industrial group have probabilities of belonging to it which range .1 14159.? .5...'-.;-£ from .64 to .99, indicating some secondary associations with other groups. However, three prefectures are associated u rim'ifxs :- 15.1.1212" with those of the Southern and Inland Sea Coast group and Nagano Prefecture has a secondary association with the North- 5% ern and West Coast group.25 Associations with either the Grain Basket or Urban/Industrial groups are virtually non- existent. Thus, although the Semi-Industrial group can be considered viable, four of its members are linked with two of the agricultural groups. Two features characterize the prefectures of the Semi-Industrial group. Firstly, when the group is compared to the nation as a whole its average values on most of the variables in the factor analysis approximate the national averages. These averages, however, have a noticeable ten- dency to favor the urban end of what might be called the 25Nara, Wakayama and Okayama Prefectures have prob- abilities of .20, .21 and .36 respectively of belonging in the Southern and Inland Sea Coast group. Nagano Prefecture has a .20 probability of belonging in the Northern and West Coast group. 139 urban-agricultural spectrum.26 Secondly, each of the pre- fectures, with the exception of Hiroshima, is contiguous with one or more of the Urban/Industrial prefectures and has only one or two cities of 100,000 or more population.27 These cities are located either on major transportation routes or near the major urban centers of neighboring Urban/ Industrial prefectures.28 They function as secondary indus- trial and residential centers serving the needs of their metropolitan neighbors.29 The remaining cities are consid- erably smaller, comparatively distant from major urban cen- ters and serve as centers of agricultural activity. The prefectures of the Semi-Industrial group are characterized by secondary urban-industrial centers, while still retain- ing agricultural qualities. With the discriminating "power" 26Such a spectrum was constructed by ranking the pre— fectures according to their values on each variable. Notice- able trends in the grouping of prefectures at either end of the spectrum were found. Prefectures of the Semi-Industrial group were located rather consistently on the urban side of the mean value for each variable. 27J.S.Y. 1966, op: cit., Table 10, pp. 25-29. Shizuoka and Hiroshima Prefectures are exceptions in that they contain several cities of over 100,000 inhabitants. 28The cities of Gifu in Gifu Prefecture and Yokkaichi in Mie Prefecture, for example, are both less than 40 kilo- meters from the major urban center of Nagoya in Aichi Pre- fecture. 29A discussion of the development of a secondary in- dustrial center in Nagano Prefecture is contained in: John D. Eyre, "Industrial Growth in the Suwa Basin, Japan," The Geographical Review, 53:487-502, October, 1963. _13 I t..1n.'-. mn‘wm. An.“ ‘I ,' J “I - . - 140 of the factors indicated, the reclassification of prefec- tures described and accounted for, and the nature of the Semi-Industrial group in mind an evaluation of the groups is in order. Evaluation and Conclusion The map of the five groups (Figure 13) illustrates their distribution. Several noticeable patterns are imme- diately apparent. First of all the pattern of the groups is very similar to the major patterns exhibited in the maps of the factor scores. In effect, the map is a composite of the patterns found in the scores of all seven factors. Secondly, with the exception of Fukuoka Prefecture, the two sets of basically agricultural and urban prefectures constitute contiguous agglomerations of prefectures. The separation of the northern and southern agricultural groups by Hyogo and Kyoto Prefectures is the result of the posi- tions of boundaries rather than of any actual differences in the coastal area. If a coastal prefecture existed link- ing Fukui and Tottori it would most likely be classified in the Northern and West Coast group.30 A third feature that 30The population characteristics of the cities and towns in the coastal portions of Hyogo and Kyoto Prefectures follow the same pattern as those in Shimane, Tottori and Fukui Prefectures. The pattern is one of low population density and decreasing numbers of inhabitants. ,. .11.? r lo»! ”q. n"’l.‘.hmh‘ . ‘ZLUA 'TF—-_'IIII l ‘1 141 Figure 13. Five Groups Derived Through Discriminant Analysis of Factor Scores 142 Five Groups Derived Through Discriminant Analysis of Factor I. Hokkaido 2 Aomori 3. Iwate 4. Miyagi 5. Akita 6. Yamagata 7. Fukushima 8. Ibaraki 9. Tochigi IO. Gumma I l. Saitama l2. Chiba l3. Tokyo l4. Kanagawa l5. Niigata l6. Toyama l7 Ishikawa l8.Fukui l9. Yamanashi 20. Nagano 2|. Gifu 22 Shizuoka 23 Aichi Scores 24. Mie 25.8higa 26. Kydto 27. Osaka 28 Hyégo 29. Nara 30. Wakayama 3|. Tottori 32. Shimane 33. Okayama 34. Hiroshima 35. Yomaguchi 36. Tokushima 37. Kagawa 38. Ehime 39. Kéchi 40. Fukuoka 4t. 5000 42. Nagasaki 43. Kumamoto 44. Oita 45. Miyazaki 46. Kagoshima A ‘. \. y\\ . g ..5 - - _ 0 yo Zr.j'.;.' V J \\;\\‘\\§:\‘\ I ‘\ \ \:\\ I - Urban / Industrial Semi-Industrial III \\\\ Grain Basket IV Southern and Inland Sea Coast V Northern and West Coast flu. 143 stands out is the series of alternating areas of high and low urban concentration as represented by the Urban/Indus- trial and Semi-Industrial groups respectively. The comparison of the groups with data related to changes in population and cultivated area supports the ap- propriateness of the prefectural groupings. The ratio of [j cultivated land to pOpulation was computed and graphed for the years from 1956 through 1968 for all of Japan and for each prefecture. When the graphs are compared the simil- arities of the prefectures within the groups are readily apparent (Figure 14).31 Graphs for the Urban/Industrial prefectures (Group I) indicate that small and decreasing amounts of cultivated land were available for each thou- sand persons in the population. This was interpreted as indicating the presence of high concentrations and increas- ing numbers of people. The prefectures of the Semi-Indus- trial group (Group II) represent an intermediate level in terms of cultivated land available per thousand population. There is, however, a definite decrease in their ratios in the period after 1960 similar to that evident in the Urban/ 31The Roman numerals at the top of each column of graphs refer to the groups as shown in Figure 13. The boldface numbers on the right side of each graph refer to the prefecture represented by that graph. The figures for 1955 were computed but not included due to space limitations and aesthetic considerations. In all cases the excluded values were similar to those for 1956. 144 Figure 14. Japan: Changes in Population, Cultivated Area and Cultivated Land Per Thousand Population 145 F—" 2 90 l20 — T 90 3 I00 % —l>——4 4 80 L I20 1.. J ¢ 5 “20‘ 7 s 90‘ ”Of —' —1 7 BO IIO A I 80 L—JL _JLE 1956 I960 l 968 I V 60 50 p 3L 70 L 50 36 l 70 _L4_3_l 80 601/] 44 IOO ID ID 2‘ l960 |964 l968 lOO ' a 91 80 — E’OL7 60K 1'0 90— J \ H. 60 l2 I 70 L X“ 50 ‘ \ I956 :960 I964 I968 in TO 50 I00 80 60 50 50 40 TO 60 50 4O 50 4O 80 20 Etta m IZCIE airs Cultivated Land per Thousand Population I956- I968 7O JAPAN 60 I956 I960 L364 I968 Change in Population and Cultivated Area INCREASE IN BOTH POPULATION AND CULTIVATED AREA DECREASE IN POPULATION AND INCREASE IN CULTIVATED AREA INCREASE IN POPULATION AND DECREASE IN CULTIVATED AREA ‘, DECREASE IN 63TH POPULATION ‘ ' AND CULTIVATED AREA 146 Industrial group. The graphs for the prefectures in the three agricultural groups (Groups III, IV and V) are quite different. They show generally increasing ratios through- out the entire period and, in addition, indicate the avail- ability of comparatively large amounts of cultivated land. The increases in the agricultural prefectures were not suf- ficient to offset losses that occurred and the effect of a growing population. The steady downward trend of the ratio illustrated in the graph representing the entire nation is indicative of the increasing burden being placed on the cultivated area of the country. Two prefectures, Saitama (11) and Chiba (12), stand out as unusual because of the marked decline in the ratio shown in their graphs. The changes taking place in Saitama Prefecture have already been mentioned. The magnitude of those changes is such that the relationship of the poPula- tion to the cultivated area has been rapidly altered. Be- tween 1955 and 1960 population grew at a slow rate as in- creases in cultivated area kept well ahead of the growth. After 1960, however, the amount of cultivated land decreased while the poPulation increased at a faster rate.32 Between 1960 and 1968 the population increase totaled more than one million (forty-three percent), the urban area grew and 3zBetween 1955 and 1960, 168,000 people were added to the population. In the 1960-1968 period, 1,043,000 were added. 147 encompassed an additional 36,900 hectares, and the cul- tivated area decreased 17,300 hectares. These changes clearly illustrate a rapid urbanization of the prefecture and account for the declining population-cultivated land ratio. Similar changes have taken place in Chiba Prefec- ture, one of the members of the Grain Basket group.' Here the change in population was less but the size of the annual increment has increased since 1965 to the point where over 100,000 people were added in 1967 and in 1968. During the 1960-1968 period urban area increased 51,600 hectares. The largest amount of cultivated land available was recorded in 1962. Between that year and 1968 the cultivated area de- creased 6,900 hectares with the largest decreases recorded between 1965 and 1968.33 These changes, when considered along with Chiba Prefecture's .32 probability of belonging in the Urban/Industrial group, indicate rapid urbanization and the likelihood that it is in transition from an agri- cultural to urban status. The map showing changes in both population and cultivated area between 1960 and 1968 indicates that, with two exceptions, all of the prefectures in the Urban/Indus- trial and Semi—Urban groups experienced increases in 33Based on figures contained in Tables 7, 9 and 10 plus those in J.S.Y. 1966, op. cit., Table 10, pp. 22- 23. 148 population and decreases in cultivated area (Figure 14).34 The appearance of several agricultural prefectures in the same category as the urban prefectures possibly indicates a trend toward urbanization, however, the changes in these prefectures have been small, and therefore, may be mislead- 35 Hokkaido and the portions of northern Honshu that ing. experienced increases in both population and cultivated area are the "frontier" portions of the country where peo- ple have been drawn by the availability of land and employ- ment opportunities in the forest and fishing industries. Even in these areas though data on urban centers indicate population decreases in the more remote and smaller cities. The variables used in this study were well suited to the task of identifying and differentiating urban from agricultural prefectures in Japan. This conclusion is sup- ported by the trends in the data discussed above as well as by descriptions of Japan contained in a variety of reference materials.36 In addition to the basic division between urban 34The 1960-1968 period was selected because it was the period in which decreases in cultivated land and rapid increases in urban area and urban population occurred. 35With the exception of Chiba, the populations of these prefectures grew at a rate less than that of the national population. Decreases in cultivated area were small, the largest loss being 5,400 hectares in Ishikawa Prefecture. 36The descriptions of farming and industrial char- acteristics contained in Dempster, op. cit., pp. 62-307, were particularly useful as backgroun in ormation upon which to base conclusions. Trewartha's discussion of the 149 and agriculturally-oriented prefectures shades of differ- ence between the component parts of the divisions also can be distinguished. For example, the differences between the three groups that constitute the agricultural portion of the urban-agricultural dichotomy illustrate the high level of discrimination that can be achieved by using this set of variables. Thus the variables used in this analysis constitute a rather complete group of valid indicators of the urban and agricultural attributes prominent in the pre- fectures of Japan. commonly recognized regional subdivisions of Japan were also of considerable help. Trewartha, op. cit., pp. 311- 606. CHAPTER IV CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Conclusions Three main conclusions may be reached on the basis of this study. The first of these is that urban encroach- ment on agricultural land has occurred in most of the na- tions of the world and will doubtlessly continue unless steps are taken to preserve agricultural land. Even though the elements contributing to urban expansion are generally recognized there is little evidence that effective efforts are being made to control the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. There are at least two reasons for the apparent lack of concern for the fate of agricultural land near growing urban centers. The first involves the amount of arable land still available for use in some nations. In developed nations such as the United States which possess large amounts of unused arable land that can be put into production, the need to preserve land already in use has not been felt. Serious problems in assuring adequate food supplies have not yet been encountered. Secondly, the abil- ity of most developed nations to purchase needed food with the proceeds from the sale of their industrial products has 150 151 reduced their dependence on domestic agricultural produc- tion. Consequently, plans for urban develOpment have fre- quently stressed the planned and orderly conversion of agri- cultural land to urban uses rather than its orderly preser- 37 In these countries urban vation from urban encroachment. encroachment on agricultural land has generally meant the relocation of farm families on "new" land or their absorp- tion into the business or industrial labor forces. In the densely populated developing nations the situation is somewhat different. Such countries as Taiwan and Korea are rapidly approaching the upper limit of the carrying capacity of the agricultural land. There, short- ages in domestic food production will be experienced either in the stomachs of the people or in the countries' foreign exchange reserves. If political instability and a general physical weakening of the population is to be avoided, food supplies to counter domestic production shortages will have to be purchased. The money spent for these purchases thus will not be available for economic development projects and development may be retarded. Urban encroachment on agricultural land only has- tens the day when food shortages will appear. Yet there are few indications that the role of urban expansion in 37Buchanan, Op. cit.; Higbee, op. cit.; Steiner, OE. CitOO 152 reducing cultivated area, and thereby food supplies, is recognized in the developing nations. Indeed, the dearth of available information on urban population, urban area, and the changes that have taken place in them leads to the second main conclusion: The responsible officials and agencies in the developing nations do not know how much, how fast or where agricultural land is being converted to urban uses. The comparative lack of information on urban growth in developing nations indicates a major weakness in their planning efforts and development projects, resulting from their concentration on increasing food production and in— dustrial output and controlling the growth of population. I am not saying however, that the responsible government officials and agencies are unaware of problems that may be created by shortages in food supplies. The amount of planning effort, money and time expended on increasing food production and controlling population growth are in- dicative of their awareness of the potential problems and their desire to avoid them if possible. Nevertheless, their successes in increasing food production and slowing the rate of population growth have had the effect of re- ducing their concern for the preservation of agricultural land. When combined with the desire to increase industrial capacity and the need to provide housing and employment for their still growing populations, the consequence has been 153 to give the preservation of agricultural land low, if any, 38 Inattention to the priority in their development plans. problem of urban encroachment on agricultural land will eventually have to be paid for when food needs begin to outstrip food production capabilities. My third conclusion concerns the means by which urban and agricultural areas may be identified and singled out for further study. In the absence of data related to the growth of urban centers a number of variables may be used to identify urban and agricultural areas. Based on the results of my analysis of these variables in Japan, I have concluded that they are valid indicators of the na- ture of each observational unit. Moreover, the analytical techniques used here were well suited to the task of iden- tifying and distinguishing between areas that are basically urban or agricultural. The techniques used, however, do have a basic limitation imposed by data availability that merits consid- eration. If the multivariate analytic techniques of factor 38Monson commented on the repeated recommendation made to the government of Taiwan that certain lands be preserved from the effects of urban expansion and the failure to implement plans designed to carry out that recommendation. Monson, op. cit., p. 12. Responses to questions contained in the United Nations study of urban land use policies indicate that control measures that exist in Taiwan do not extend beyond the official limits of cities. United Nations Study, op. cit.. 154 analysis and discriminant analysis are to be useful, vari- ables representing a wide range of characteristics are nec- essary. In addition, the data should be available for units of observation smaller than the major national divisions of states or prefectures. The results of the analysis of Japan's prefectures make this clear. Although the classifi— cation of prefectures into groups could have been accom- plished with a reasonable degree of accuracy through a sim- ple examination of the data, at the scale of the more numer- ous lesser civil divisions classification by visual examin- ation of the data would be very difficult and time consum- ing. Also, through the use of data based on more numerous local divisions, such as counties or census tracts, the na- ture of a relatively small area and the types of land use found within it can be accurately determined. For example, an analysis of the Taipei Basin on the basis of li_and ts'un, the smallest political units in each county, could be expected to yield a detailed map indicating the location of predominantly urban and agricultural areas. By repeating the analysis for different time periods the areas of most rapid urbanization could be pinpointed and the direction of urban expansion determined. A basis could therefore be established upon which to formulate plans for controlling urban growth in the basin and preserving any agricultural land threatened by the expansion of Taipei or other cities. Thus, while the analysis of Japan serves to 155 illustrate the use of these techniques, greater value lies in their application to the problem of identifying and dis- tinguishing between urban and agricultural areas on a local basis. If the problem of securing data for small observa- tional units can be overcome, a means of determining the extent and direction of urban expansion in the absence of data on urban growth is available. Recommendations More studies of the actual extent and effect of urban encroachment on agricultural land are needed in or- der to accurately determine the magnitude of the problem. This is particularly true in the case of densely inhabited develOping nations where the uncontrolled progress of ur- ban expansion could have undesirable effects on economic deve10pment. Other nations, however, should not be over- looked in such studies. As the world's population con- tinues to grow it is not difficult to foresee a time when the nations producing food surpluses will no longer be able to fill their own while helping to fill those of food de- ficient nations. Even if new, higher yielding types of plants are produced, they may not be able to satisfy the world's food requirements if there is not sufficient agri- cultural land available on which to raise them. The pre- sent store of knowledge provides only a slight indication of the extent to which urban encroachment on agricultural 156 land has occurred. My tentative conclusion, however, is that considerable amounts of cultivated land already have been converted to urban uses. Furthermore, the conversion process seems likely to continue into the foreseeable fu- ture. A second recommendation follows from the first and involves the application of the techniques used in this study in the recommended investigations of urban expansion on a world wide basis. Since the use of factor analysis and discriminant analysis proved to be satisfactory in the examination of Japan, I recommend their use in a field study. Such a study using these analytic techniques would serve two purposes. First, a better estimation of their usefulness could be obtained by testing them in a location and situation such as that of the Taipei Basin described earlier. Second, the results of such a study would prob- ably be of use to the officials and agencies responsible for development planning in the area investigated. In any case, the result would be an increase in the fund of know- ledge related to urban expansion and encroachment on agri- cultural land. The problems associated with urban expansion and the removal of cultivated land from production, as presented here, have received surprisingly little attention. Whether this is due to a lack of concern or simply a lack of aware- ness of the problems is uncertain. Regardless of the reason, 157 the time has come for a more detailed investigation of this phenomenon and its causes, effects and implications for the developing nations and the world as a whole. For as William Bronson noted in his discussion of urban ex- pansion in California, "Agriculture, like fishing, is a process that can be carried into the reaches of time, 39 From the na- provided we husband the land resource." ture of the situation discussed here, it is evident that something less than a careful husbanding of the land re- source is currently being practiced throughout the world. 39Bronson, op. cit., p. 146. APPENDICES APPENDIX A SIMULATION PROGRAM AND DATA 00000000000000nnonnnnooonoonnnoo fingmi‘ifie CLD CLI CLP CR NP1 NP2 NT NU PC1 PC2 PC3 SD 158 SIMULATION PROGRAM PROGRAM SIM AREA PCT. OF AREA (A) THAT IS ARABLE AMOUNT OF ARABLE LAND PCT. OF ARABLE LAND THAT IS CULTIVATED MINIMUM PCT. OF CL TO WHICH CL CAN DECREASE CONSUMPTION (P * CR) CULTIVATED LAND RATE OF DECREASE IN CULTIVATED LAND (PCT. OF CL REMOVED) RATE OF INCREASE IN CULTIVATED LAND (PCT. OF CL ADDED) UNITS OF CULTIVATED LAND PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION RATE - CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA PER TIME PERIOD INCREMENT IN KNT AT EACH ITERATION BEGINNING VALUE OF THE TIME PERIOD (NT) NUMBER OF ITERATIONS AREAL UNITS - HECTARES, ACRES, ETC. = NAME OF PLACE BEING SIMULATED (FIRST 8 CHARACTERS) NAME OF-PLACE BEING SIMULATED (SECOND 8 CHARACTERS) TIME PERIOD - HOUR, MONTH, YEAR, ETC. YIELD UNITS - POUNDS, KILOGRAMS, TONS, ETC. POPULATION MAXIMUM RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE = MINIMUM RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE AMOUNT OF CHANGE IN POPULATION INCREASE RATE RATE OF UTILIZATION OF CULTIVATED LAND 1 = 100 PCT. UTILIZATION GREATER THAN 1 MEANS MORE THAN 1 CROP PER NT PER UNIT OF CL FOOD SURPLUS - DEFICIT STATUS (TY - C) 0 (II? 0 (1 O ()0 (3(1 0 ()0 (3(1 0 (a O ()0 159 SIMULATION PROGRAM (Cont.) TY = TOTAL YIELD FOR THE ENTIRE AREA (COUNTY, STATE, COUNTRY, ETC.) Y = BEGINNING YIELD PER UNIT OF CULTIVATED LAND YC = RATE OF INCREASE IN x YMx = MAXIMUM VALUE To WHICH Y CAN INCREASE ASSUMPTIONS NO DISASTERS (WAR, DROUGHT, DISEASE, ETC.) OCCUR TO ALTER CONDITIONS TECHNOLOGY REMAINS CONSTANT ALL CL IS PLANTED TO ONE CROP CL INCREASES AT THE RATE OF CLI PCT. OF AL UNTIL CL = (NOTE - UNTIL CL = AL, CL IS INCREASING AT THE RATE OF CLI + CLD) CL STARTS DECREASING UNTIL CL = BB PCT. OF AL Y INCREASES AT THE RATE OF YC PCT. OF Y UNTIL Y = YMX P INCREASES AT A RATE DECREASING FROM PC1 TO PC2 IN INCREMENTS OF PC3 L2 = o 55 READ(60,1) A,AA,B,CLD,CLI,CR,P,PC1,PC2,PC3,R,BB,Y,YC, 1YMX,N,NT,NA,NU,NP1,NP2,KNT,I 1 FORMAT(3(5F16.3,/),I4,5A8,IS,I3) L2 = Lz + 1 WRITE(61,100) LZ 100 FORMAT(*2*,//////////* *,*DATA SET NUMBER *,12//) WRITE(61,lOl)A,AA,B,CLD,CLI,CR,P,PC1,PC2,PC3,R,BB,Y, 1YC,YMX,N,NT,NA,NU,NP1,NP2,KNT,I 101 FORMAT(*OA = *,F16.4,6X,*AA = *,F7.5,6X,*B = *,F7.5, 16X,*CLD = *,F7.5,6X,*CLI = *,F7.5,6X,*CR =*,F4.0,6X, AL 2*P = *,F12.0,/*0PC1 =*,F7.5,6X,*PC2 = *,F7.5,6X,*PC3 = * 3F7.5,6X,*R = *,F5.3,6X,*BB = *,F6.3,6X,*Y = *’F500' I 160 SIMULATION PROGRAM (Cont.) 46X,*YC = *,F6.4,6X,*YMX = *,F5.0,/*0N = *,I4,6X, 5*NT = *,A8,6X,*NA = *,A8,6X,*NU = *,A8,6X,*NP1 + 6NP2 = *,2A8,6X,*KNT = *,IS,6X,*I = *,I3) . IF (A) 33,33,44 44 z = 0. WRITE(61,2) 2 FORMAT (*1*,////////*0*,59X,*SIMULATION*) WRITE(61,3) NP1,NP2 3 FORMAT(*0*,38X,*AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND POPULATION lIN *,2A8,//) WRITE(6l.8) NT 8 FORMAT(*O*,A8,* POPULATION CULTIVATED PCT. ARABLE 1AREA CULTIVATED AREA YIELD TOTAL YIELD CONSUMP ZTION SURPLUS - DEFICIT*) WRITE(61,9) 9 FORMAT(* *,26X,*AREA CULTIVATED PER CAPITA* 150x,*STATUS*//)' AL = AA * A D0 99 K=1,N CL = B * AL TY = Y * CL * R C = P * CR SD = TY - C CLP = CL/P Q = B * 100. MP = P MCL = CL MY = Y MTY = TY MC = C MSD = SD WRITE(61,10) KNT,MP,MCL,Q,CLP,MY,MC,MSD 161 SIMULATION PROGRAM (Cont.) 10 FORMAT(* *,I5,5X,19,5X,18,9X,F6.2,13X,F5.4,8X,IS, 14X,Ill,4X,Ill,6X,I11) KNT = KNT + 1 IF(Z.EQ.O) GO TO 11 B = B - CLD IF(B.LT.BB) B = BB GO TO 12 ll IF(B.LT.1.) B = B + CLI IF(B.GE.1.) z = l. 'IF(B.GT.l.) B = 1.4 12 IF(Y.GE.YMX) T0 T0 13 Y = Y + (Y * YC) 13 P = P + (P * PC1) IF(PC1.LE.PC2) GO To 99 PC1 = PC1 - PC3 99 CONTINUE WRITE(61,987) NA 987 FORMAT(*0*,*CULTIVATED AREA FIGURES IN *,A8) GO TO 55 33 STOP END 162 2153?: A = 5000000 . NP2 = X AA = 0.25 NT = YEAR B = 0.80 NU = KILOGRAM BB = 0.90 P = 45000000 CLD = 0.0025 PC1 = 0.03 CLI = 0.01 PC2 = 0.01 CR = 120 PC3 = 0.001 I = 1 R = 1.55 KNT = 1 Y = 3000 N = 35 YC = 0.03 NA = HECTARES YMX = 4500 NP1 = COUNTRY APPENDIX B FACTOR ANALYSIS AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 163 FACTOR ANALYSIS AND DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS Factor Analysis Factor analysis is a multivariate statistical technique designed to simultaneously analyze-the relation- ships between a number of variables. Through_Eh§_p§§_gf__y mathematical formulas1 a matrix Of product-moment correla- tions is analyzed and groupings Of variables are derived. ___’ Each of these groupings, or factors, contains a set of re- w— fi' lated variables that represent a particular pattern of .— association within the data. For example, a factor might Ibe derived that could be labeled the "urban" factor on the basis of its containing several variables that measure urban qualities such as population density and the number Of people employed in manufacturing and service industries. .A second factor containing variables such as farms per-unit Of area and measures of agricultural production might also be derived that could be labeled the "agricultural" factor. The strength of the presence or absence Of these factors in 1Full and detailed discussions of the various fea- tures Of factor analysis and the formulas involved may be found in: H. H. Harman, Modern Factor Analysis (second edition; Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1967); and Paul Horst, Factor Analysis of Data Matrices (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1965). A brief and sim- plified description of factor analysis is contained in R. J. Rummel's article, "Understanding Factor Analysis," Journal Of Conflict Resolution, 11:444-480, December, 1967. 164 the original units of Observation (e.g., counties, states or prefectures) indicates whether each unit may be consid- ered urban or agricultural in nature, or perhaps be placed in an intermediate category. Several measures indicating a variety Of relation- ships are involved in factor analysis. Basic to the whole analysis is the correlation matrix that is factor analyzed. It contains the correlation coefficients indicating the degree and direction (positive or negative) of the assoc- iation between all pairings of the variables. When the correlation matrix is analyzed a principal axis solution is Obtained which derives the basic patterns in the data. Eigenvalues are computed representing the amount Of varia- tion in the data accounted for by each factor obtained by the principal axis solution. The number of factors to be rotated may be decided on the basis of these values. Ro- tating factors derived through the principal axis solution serves to minimize the variance between variables associated with a factor and maximize the variance between the factors themselves. "Through this rotation the factor interpreta- tion shifts from unrotated factors delineating the most comprehensive data patterns to factors delineating the dis- tinct groups of interrelated data."2 (Emphasis added). 2Rummel, Op. cit., p. 474. 165 The variables that make up these rotated factors are indi- cated by the factor loadings which represent the degree and direction of association of each variable with each factor. Two measures of the "explanatory power" Of the fac- tors provide an indication of the amount of variation in the individual variables and the data set as a whole that is accounted for by the factors. Communalities indicate the amount of variation in each variable that is accounted for by the factors. A variable with a communality of .95, for example, has 95% of its variance "explained" by the factors. The percent of variance is a measure of how much of the variance in the entire data set is accounted for by each factor. Together, these two measures give an indica- tion of how much reliance may be placed upon the factors as representatives Of the data set as a whole. The degree Of importance of each rotated factor in each Observational unit is indicated by factor scores, which are standardized so that they have means of zero and standard deviations Of one. Units that have scores greater than i 1.0 for a given factor are those in which the factor is most strongly represented or lacking, depending upon the signs Of the factor loadings and factor scores. An observa- tional unit, fOr example, with a score of 1.5 on the urban factor mentioned earlier can be considered to be an "urban" unit in which the characteristics represented by the factor are notably strong. Conversely, a unit with a score of .La- 166 -l.5 may be considered a non-urban unit in which "urban" characteristics are lacking. By mapping the scores for each factor it is possible to discern and evaluate patterns among the Observational units. This procedure has a draw- back, however, in that a unit may have a high score on more than one factor. When this situation is encountered it creates the problem of deciding which of the factors best represent the nature of the unit. Discriminant analysis provides a means Of resolving this problem and, in addi- tion, may be used to test the appropriateness of groups assembled on the basis of the results Of factor analysis.3 Discriminant Analysis Discriminant analysis, unlike factor analysis, re- quires the use Of multivariate normal data, i.e., variables that are statistically independent and normally distributed. Since factor scores meet both Of these requirements they may be used as data for the analysis. Discriminant analysis also requires that the observational units be assigned to groups before the analysis is started. The analysis itself 3Leslie J. King, Statistical Anal sis in Geo ra h (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-HaII, Inc., I969), pp. 204-215. For a discussion of recent developments in the use Of discriminant analysis see: Leslie J. King, "Discriminant Analysis: A Review Of Recent Theoretical Contributions and Applications," Economic Geography (Supplement), 46:367—378, June, 1970. 167 involves the computation Of a linear discriminant function for each group on the comparison of each Observational unit with each group function. On the basis of this comparison probabilities are computed indicating the likelihood of an Observation belonging in each group. In the ideal situation each Observational unit will have a probability of 1.0 Of belonging to a particular group and probabilities of 0.0 of belonging to the others. A measure of the importance of each variable (fac- tor) in discriminating between the groups is given by the coefficients of the linear discriminant functions. A coef- ficient is computed for.all pairings of variables and func- tions. The magnitude of the coefficient indicates the im- portance of each variable in distinguishing one group from another. It is thus possible to check not only on the ap- propriateness of the groups originally designated for anal- ysis, but also to determine which variables (factors) are most important in discriminating between the groups. The useful qualities of discriminant analysis, along with those of factor analysis, lend themselves to the problem at hand. Both were employed, therefore, in attempting to identify a set of variables that can be used to distinguish between urban and agricultural prefectures in Japan and those in transition from one group to another. 168 The Data A set Of 112 variables representing urban and agri- cultural characteristics was assembled. The year l965 was Chosen as the study year because it was the most recent year for which census data were available. The raw data were converted to ratio form based on area and population in order to standardize the data in terms of area and pop- ulation and achieve a more accurate representation Of the nature of each prefecture.4 Once the data had been stan- dardized, the 112 variables were carefully evaluated. Those not representing a characteristic that could be ade- quately measured throughout the entire country were dis- carded.5 Also discarded was one member of each 4An example of the effect of converting the data from raw to ratio form illustrates the reason for standar- izing the data. In 1965, 18.29 million people were employed in manufacturing in Tokyo Prefecture, representing thirty- three percent of the employed labor force. In neighboring Kanagawa Prefecture less than half that number, 7.65 million, representing thirty-six percent of the prefectures labor force, were employed in manufacturing. On the basis of the number of people employed it might be concluded that manu- facturing in Kanagawa Prefecture was not as important a source of employment as in Tokyo Prefecture. When the pro- portion Of the labor force employed in manufacturing in each prefecture is considered, however, it is evident that they were quite similar in terms of manufacturing employ- ment. The difference in the actual numbers of peOple em- ployed in manufacturing masks a similarity in the structure of the labor force in these prefectures. Data were converted to ratio form order to detect such similarities and bring out actual differences among the prefectures that might be hidden by the magnitude of the values in the raw data. 5For example, variables measuring the amount of cultivated land devoted to orchard crops such as tree fruits, 169 complementary pair Of variables, such as urban and rural population that measured the same characteristic and re- dundant variables measuring the same characteristic in different forms.6 The resulting set of variables was divided into two groups on the basis of trends evident in the data and their hypothesized relationships to the urban or agricul- tural qualities of the prefectures.7 I anticipated that at least twenty-five of the variables would have high loadings on one factor indicating the presence or absence of urban qualities in each prefecture via the factor scores. Variables in this group included those measuring population as a prOportion of the nation's population liv- ing in each prefecture, population density, and change in population between 1960 and 1965. Variables related to the number of cities Of various sizes and the percent of* the population living in them were included to distinguish mulberry and tea were discarded in favor of a single vari- able measuring the amount Of land devoted to all orchard crops. The more detailed data was discarded because each Of the crOps involved was raised in only a few of the pre- fectures. 6Data on cultivated area, for example, was origi- nally collected in the form of both acres and hectares. The metric unit Of measure was finally chosen due to the fact that the data on various types of cultivated land (paddy fields, orchards, etc.) were recorded in metric units. 7A brief description of each of the variables se- lected is contained in Appendix C. A copy of the data set itself may be Obtained upon application. 170 the prefectures characterized by large urban centers from those lacking them. The variables representing the smaller cities and their populations could be expected to load on the urban factor in opposition to those representing the large urban centers. Other population oriented variables included mea- sures Of urban concentration and two variables related to age composition and marital status. I hypothesized that the urban prefectures would not only have a high percentage of their populations living in densely inhabited districts (DID), but that the population density outside of these districts would also be high. In addition, the urban pre— fectures could be expected to have a small percentage of their populations in the 65 and over age bracket and a relatively large proportion represented by young unmarried people. This situation is explained by the migration of young, single persons from rural to urban areas, resulting in a comparative concentration of Older people and a lack of young unmarrieds in the areas Of emigration.8 Variables related to transportation facilities, income and employment were added to the population vari- ables as further measures of urban qualities. I hypothe- sized that highway and rail facilities would be more 8These characteristic effects Of migration are discussed briefly in: Glenn T. Trewartha, A Geo ra h of Population: World Patterns (New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1969), pp. 137—140. 171 prevalent and that they would carry more freight in the ur- ban prefectures. Income, government expenditures, manufac- turing emplOyment and unemployment were also expected to be higher in the urban prefectures and therefore help to dis- tinguish them from the agricultural prefectures. The variables in the second group were selected as measures reflecting the agricultural Characteristics of the prefectures. The general variables rural population and rural area were included with more specific variables such as cultivated area, farm population, and farm households per square kilometer. Specific types of agricultural land use were incorporated in the data set on the hypothesis that the ratio of farmed land and land use types to population would be high in agricultural prefectures and low in the urban prefectures. Grain production variables standardized on the basis of both area and population were also included based on a similar hypothesis. Finally, data related to agricultural employment and two kinds of farm equipment were added to this variable set. Overall, the variables in these two groups were assumed to be valid measures of the agricultural and urban characteristics of Japan's prefectures. Factor analysis will substantiate whether or not the variables selected A 1 ‘ constitute groups of Characteristics that can be used to A classify prefectures as predominantly urban or predominantly —‘ agricultural. _-- 172 Almost all of the variables reflecting urban char- 9 The acteristics have high loadings on the urban factor. population density variable, all of the transportation facilities variables except the one measuring unpaved roads, and the variable representing the percent Of the cities in each prefecture with 100,000 or more inhabitants have positive factor loadings Of over .90. These are accom- panied by variables with loadings between .70 and .89. In- cluded in this series are the percent Of national popula- tion living in the prefecture, percent of prefectural popu- lation living in DID's and Cities of 100,000 or more in- habitants, population density in the areas outside of the DID's, and the percent of the population over.fifteen years of age and single.10 Variables with loadings between .50 and .69 include number of households per thousand popula- tion, income per household, percent Change in population in the 1960-1965 period, and percent of the labor force employed in manufacturing. The variables that have negative loadings on the urban factor are those associated with the number of smaller A complete listing of the rotated factor loadings may be found in Appendix D. 10 . . . Although It was not its highest loading, the vari- able measuring the percent of the population 65 years of age and over had a loading of -.57 on this factor. This was interpreted as indicating the expected difference between the proportions of the populations of the population made up of older people and young unmarried persons in urban areas. 173 Cities and towns in each prefecture and the percent of the prefectural population living in them. These variables have loadings ranging from -.54 to -.91. Five variables measur- ing agricultural and rural characteristics also load nega- tively on the urban factor. They are the measures Of rural population and area, the farm population variable, percent of households classified farm households, and percent of the labor force employed in agriculture. The range of the loadings extends from -.67 to -.78. The urban factor may be interpreted as representing a dichotomy between decidedly urban measures and variables related to rural, small town, and farm characteristics. This dichotomy is evident in the strong positive loadings Of variables representing definitely urban qualities and the negative loadings of the variables associated with the smaller Cities and towns, their populations, and the farm population. When interpreting the factor scores for this factor, therefore, it will be possible to distinguish ur- ban prefectures as well as those that can be characterized as rural, small town prefectures with relatively large farm populations. While most Of the variables measuring urban char- acteristics have high loadings on the urban factor those selected to reflect agricultural characteristics are spread over four factors. Some of them, as already mentioned load negatively on the urban factor. Most of the remaining 174 variables load on the grain, agricultural employment and farm factors which together account for 35.85 percent of the total variance in the data. The grain factor is loaded almost exclusively by the variables measuring grain production in terms of both population and area. Also included on this factor is the highest loading for the unpaved road variable. Since all of the high loadings are negative the interpretation Of the factor scores for this factor will be the reverse of the usual interpretation. Negative scores in this case will be interpreted as indicating the presence of the grain factor and positive scores its absence. Although the variables measuring agricultural em- ployment did not have its highest loading on the agricul- tural employment factor its presence in conjunction with other agriculture and rural oriented variables indicates the appropriateness of the name. Along with the agricul- tural employment variable are those representing the amount of farmed land and rice land per thousand popula- tion and government expenditures per capita. Variables measuring the percent Of the prefectural population living in cities and towns of less than 50,000 and less than 30,000 have moderate positive loadings on this factor. The manufacturing employment, income, and population change variables load negatively, thus creating a dichot- omy, as in the case of the urban factor, between basically 175 agricultural land manufacturing employment. By extension this factor may also be considered as one differentiating between urban and agricultural prefectures on the basis Of positive and negative factor scores. The farm factor represents five variables with load- ings between .70 and .82. Number of farm households per square kilometer, farmed land, wheat production per hectare Of area, and the two farm equipment variables have their highest loadings on this factor. Since the loadings of these variables are all positive the interpretation Of the factor scores will be such that a positive score indicates the presence of the farm factor and a negative score its absence in each prefecture. The three remaining factors each represent only two or three variables. The unemployment and percent of the available labor force not in the active labor force11 vari- ables constitute the unemployment factor. The elderly pop- ulation factor represents the percent Of the population sixty-five years of age and over, and the percent Of the cities and towns having less than 10,000 inhabitants. Vari- ables representing the percent of farmed land in orchard 11This variable represents people 15 years of age and over who are considered part Of the available labor force because of their age, but are not actively seeking employment. These people are primarily housewives, stu- dents and disabled persons. 176 crops and silkworm cocoon production have negative loadings on the orchard land factor. The variable measuring the amount Of farmed land in rice production loaded positively. A third dichotomous factor is thus present. The dichotomy in this case may be interpreted as being between types Of terrain since orchards in Japan are generally situated on hillsides and rice fields on flat or nearly flat land. APPENDIX C DEFINITION OF VARIABLES PERCENT POP CHANGE POP DENSITY 100,000 + UNDER 50 UNDER 30 UNDER 10 POP 100 + POP 50 - POP 10 - D.I.D. POP 177 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES Percent of the national population living in each Prefecture (2) Percent Change in the Prefectural population between 1960 and 1965 (2) Population per square kilometer (2) Percent of the cities, towns, and villages having 100,000 population or more (2) Percent of the cities, towns, and villages with less than 50,000 population (2) Percent of the cities, towns, and villages with less than 30,000 population (2) Percent of the cities, towns, and villages with less than 10,000 population (2) Percent of the population living in cities of 100,000 or more population (2) Percent of the population living in cities, towns, and villages of less than 50,000 population (2) Percent of the population living in cities, towns, and villages of less than 10,000 population (2) Percent of the pOpulation living in Densely Inhabited Districts* (2) *Densely Inhabited District - a group Of contiguous enumera— tion districts having a population density Of 4,000 persons per square kilometer within the boundary of a city, town, or village having a population Of at least 5,000 persons. (1) 178 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES (Cont.) NON D.I.D. Population density in areas other than Densely Inhabited Districts (2) 65 AND OVER Percent of the population 65 years of age and over (1) SINGLE POP Percent of the population 15 years of age and over that is unmarried (l) HOUSEHOLDS Number of households* per thousand population (1) RAIL KM2 Kilometers Of railroad track per square kilometer (3) H—WAY KM2 Kilometers of paved highway per square kilometer (3) ROAD KM2 Kilometers of unpaved road per square kilometer (3) TRUCK FRGT Metric tons of freight carried by truck per kilometer of paved highway and unpaved road combined (3) $ INCOME Average monthly income per household in dollars (1) GOV'T EXP Government expenditure in dollars per capita (l) MANUFACT EMP Percent of the employed labor force engaged in manufacturing (1) UNEMPLOYMENT Percent of the active labor force unemployed (1) NOT IN LABOR Percent of the available labor force (persons 15 years Of age and over) not in the active labor force (1) *Household - a group of two or more persons sharing living quar- ters and living expenses, or a person who lives by himself and occupies a house. (2) RURAL AREA RURAL POP FARM POP FARM DENSITY FARM HOUSES FARMED LAND RICE LAND ORCHARD LAND CULT - POP RICE - POP GRAIN PER HA RICE PER HA WHEAT PER HA BARLEY PER HA 179 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES (Cont.) Percent of the total area classified rural (1) Percent of the total population classified rural (1) Percent Of the total pOpulation classified farm household members (1) Farm households per square kilometer (1) Percent of the total number Of households classified farm households (1) Percent of the total area that is cultivated (1) Percent of the farmed land that is classified paddi field (1) Percent of the farmed land that is classified orchard land (4) Farmed land per thousand population in hectares* (1) Rice land per thousand population in hectares (1) Tons of grain produced per hectare Of total area (1) Tons of rice produced per hectare of total area (1) Tons of wheat produced per hectare of total area (1) Tons of barley produced per hectare of total area (1) *Hectare - One hectare is composed of 10,000 square meters. One hectare equals 2.45 acres. One hundred hectares equal one square kilometer. 180 DEFINITION OF VARIABLES (Cont.) GRAIN POP Tons of grain produced per thousand population (1) RICE POP Tons of rice produced per thousand population (1) WHEAT POP Tons Of wheat produced per thousand population (1) COCOONS KM2 Kilograms of silkworm cocoons produced per square kilometer (1) ANI CULTIV Number of animal powered cultivators per square kilometer (1) POW CULTIV Number Of motor powered cultivators per square kilometer (l) AGRICULT EMP Percent of the employed labor force engaged in agriculture (1) The numbers in parentheses refer to the sources of data from which the values for the variables were derived. 1. Bureau Of Statistics, Japan Statistical Yearbook, 1966, (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1967). Bureau of Statistics, 1965 Population Census of Japan, (Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1966). Mr. E. Aramaki, Engineer Of the Planning Division, Road Bureau, Ministry Of Construction, Tokyo, Japan. Office of Agricultural Product Statistics, Department Of Statistical Survey, Ministry Of Agriculture, Tokyo, Japan. APPENDIX D ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor Factor 181 KEY TO THE ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS l The 2 The 3 The 4 The 5 The 6 The 7 The Urban Factor Grain Factor Unemployment Factor Farm Factor Elderly POpulation Factor Agricultural Employment Factor Orchard Land Factor 182 ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS Variable Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor 3 Factor 4 PERCENT .8619* -.0689 -.l407 -.0465 POP CHANGE .5850 —.0729 .1339 .2217 POP DENSITY .9725* —.0228 -.0675 .0791 100,000 + .9159* .0219 -.0670 .0772 UNDER 50 -.8977* .0193 -.0469 -.1496 UNDER 30 -.9124* .0692 -.0822 -.1592 UNDER 10 -.5416 .3485 -.0553 -.2416 POP 100 + .7789* .1083 —.3216 .0014 POP 50 - -.7675* -.0790 .1749 -.0871 POP 30 - -.7770* -.0617 .0985 -.0942 POP 10 - -.5796* .2326 .0337 -.1485 D.I.D. POP .8126* .1253 -.2178 -.0010 NON D.I.D. .7620* -.1267 -.1073 .5432 65 AND OVER -.5695 .0628 -.0489 -.0337 SINGLE POP .7551* -.0059 -.0105 .0775 HOUSEHOLDS .5286* .1706 -.4811 -.l690 RAIL KM2 .9456* .0091 -.0695 .2348 H-WAY KM2 .9475* -.0141 -.0498 -.0158 ROAD KM2 .3132 -.5339* .0472 .5103 TRUCK FRGT .9715* .1161 -.0312 .0181 $ INCOME .6348* -.1104 .2415 -.0100 GOV'T EXP -.0811 .2592 .2190 -.3274 MANUFACT EMP .5408 .0767 .2287 .1979 UNEMPLOYMENT .0877 .0900 -.8923* .1243 NOT IN LABOR .2299 .0834 -.8135* .0755 RURAL AREA -.7846* .0079 .0056 -.2294 RURAL POP -.7809* -.l362 .1282 -.0093 FARM POP -.7189* -.1257 .3207 -.0521 FARM DENSITY .3101 -.2588 -.0714 .8239* FARM HOUSES -.6959* -.1110 .3469 -.0532 FARMED LAND .0476 -.5384 .0391 .7397* Variable RICE LAND ORCHARD LAND CULT - POP RICE - POP GRAIN PER HA RICE PER HA WHEAT PER HA BARLEY PER HA GRAIN POP RICE POP WHEAT POP COCOONS KM2 ANI CULTIV POW CULTIV AGRICULT EMP Proportion of Variance Cumulative Proportion of Variance * Indicates the highest loading for that variable 183 3 ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS (Cont.) Factor 1 Factor 2 Factor -.2290 .2456 .1083 -.0993 .1589 -.l890 -.5235 -.l810 .2164 -.4946 .0404 .4310 -.0032 -.8407* -.0620 .0712 -.9564* .1069 -.0369 -.5508 -.2809 .0165 -.8995* .2030 -.2111 -.8981* .0140 -.0971 —.9ll6* .1096 -.2568 -.6516* -.2139 -.0928 -.2522 .2827 .2464 .0512 -.1113 .1457 -.4503 .2146 -.6670* -.2229 .2310 .3590 .1373 .0660 .3590 .4963 .5623 Factor .2604 .0560 -.2834 -.0509 .4983 -.0111 .7079* .2205 .2118 -.1047 .4187 .1283 .8054* .7043* -.0946 .1013 .6636 4 184 ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS (ant.) Variable Factor 5 Factor 6 Factor 7 Communalities PERCENT -.1645 -.l833 -.0462 .8324 POP CHANGE -.1600 -.6277* -.1079 .8459 POP DENSITY .0622 .0062 -.0757 .9667 100,000 + -.0789 -.1258 -.0673 .8763 UNDER 50 .1510 .1714 -.0119 .8832 UNDER 30 .1857 .1166 -.0617 .9213 UNDER 10 .5903* .0421 -.2221 .8758 POP 100 + -.l324 -.4303 -.0105 - .9237 POP 50 - .1492 .5025 -.0602 .9118 POP 30 - .1797 .5054 -.1064 .9251 POP 10 - .5688 .3136 -.2125 .8803 D.I.D. POP -.1279 -.4566 .0270 .9490 NON D.I.D. -.0145 -.2114 -.0888 .9560 65 AND OVER .7082* .2581 .0655 .9043 SINGLE POP -.0604 -.5501 -.1178 .8964 HOUSEHOLDS .4619 —.l930 .0103 .8192 RAIL KM2 .0246 -.1106 .0166 .9673 H-WAY KM2 .0976 .0433 -.0908 .9204 ROAD KM2 .0160 -.4020 -.l79l .8397 TRUCK FRGT .0076 .0470 .0119 .9611 $ INCOME —.0758 -.6010 .1228 .8560 GOV'T EXP .4154 .6408* .0873 .8198 MANUFACT EMP .1003 -.7115* -.0686 .9107 UNEMPLOYMENT .1684 .0671 .0173 .8605 NOT IN LABOR -.1650 —.1568 -.0780 .7852 RURAL AREA .0498 .1948 -.1285 .7253 RURAL POP .1099 .4888 -.0733 .9012 FARM POP .1452 .5458 —.0052 .9572 FARM DENSITY .1169 -.2008 -.0372 .9025 FARM HOUSES .2096 .5325 .0018 .9473 FARMED LAND -.2333 -.0534 .0418 .8998 185 ROTATED FACTOR LOADINGS (Cont.) Variable Factor 5 Factor 6 Factor 7 Communalities RICE LAND .3220 -.l621 .6097* .6940 ORCHARD LAND .1623 -.0253 -.7960* .7345 CULT - POP -.3516 .5257* .1209 .8485 RICE - POP -.l810 .5113* .4411 .9233 GRAIN PER HA -.0549 -.0718 -.0797 .9735 RICE PER HA -.0540 -.0008 -.0044 .9343 WHEAT PER HA -.0548 -.0217 -.1298 .9050 BARLEY PER HA -.0354 -.l438 -.0097 .9212 GRAIN POP -.0253 .1445 -.0634 .9219 RICE POP -.1278 .1277 .0667 .9005 WHEAT POP .0048 .2126 -.1847 .7909 COCOONS KM2 .0032 -.l646 -.7413* .7452 ANI CULTIV -.1295 -.0005 .1293 .7578 POW CULTIV -.0495 -.3319 -.1233 .8938 AGRICULT EMP .0120 .6171 .0138 .9380 PrOportion of Variance .0508 .1199 .0462 Cumulative PrOportion of Variance .7144 .8343 .8805 *Indicates the highest loading for that variable. APPENDIX E FACTOR SCORES 186 mmv.HI mom.ml Nmm.H omm.H NmH.o mmm.o oaw.ot mmm.ot bm¢.o mwh.al mmm.~l mvm.H mmm.o hm¢.OI hvm.o mmm.o mvm.o mNN.o mnm.ot mno.ot h HOPOOM th.o wmm.o moH.o www.0l mmh.o mvm.o mmm.al mmN.H mNo.HI vmm.al mow.ol ¢oo.o ¢NH.o mom.o mmm.o NNH.H hom.o moa.H HHH.H OOH.0I .m_. uouomm mwh.o mwh.o mao.H hom.o vmh.al maa.ot vvm.ol ham.o mmm.ot «mm.OI th.OI ham.01 mmm.o mnm.ot Hom.Ht NmH.HI Hmm.HI oom.HI mvm.al mom.ml m Houomm Nam.0I mom.ot omm.on MbN.OI mNH.o mmo.or mmN.o HmN.HI owN.H mom.m vH~.oI mmm.ot mom.o mmm.ot NmH.0l Ahm.0I mHo.o Nmm.OI www.cl mmN.NI v uouomm mmm.H man.o mhh.H HmN.H mvH.H mmn.H Hmm.o1 omm.ou mom.o hmH.H om0.o oov.o mov.o va.o NmH.H me.o mmo.ot hvm.o hom.ol NNo.HI m Houomm mmmoom m0904m mvm.o NO¢.0 mmm.o onm.o mmm.o hem.o hma.OI «aw.OI mmm.ot wwm.ou mNN.HI hmm.ml mma.ml mNH.OI mmm.o mom.o mNo.o hoo.o mmm.o oma.o N Houomm 5mm.o1 mmm.ot maa.o Hmo.0I mwm.o hhH.OI Hmm.a omm.v mmo.ot moo.ot mov.ot mmo.ot oma.ot mmv.ol mma.ot hwm.OI mmm.ot mmm.ot mvm.ot moa.ot a nouomm osmmmz Hammcmemw stsm mzmxw£MH GEO%OB mummflflz msmmmsmx oaxoa onwnu memufimm 03850 flmHCOOB wxmumnH mefltmsxsm mummmfimw muflxd “mamas mumzH AHOEOG opedxxom musuommonm 187 huh.o Ham.o moo.al HmH.o onm.ot bmo.a vam.o 5mm.o v¢¢.o mma.o mvN.HI hHN.o wom.H mov.o mnm.o haw.o mNm.o mHH.o vwm.0I 050.0I h. Houomm omm.ol mnm.o oma.o «mm.o ovm.o th.ol mam.HI hon.0l omm.o mmm.o mae.ot mmo.HI mmo.NI mmm.o mmm.ml mmH.o mmm.ol mmh.HI moo.al mmH.HI Houomm H¢®.0I v¢~.m mbN.o mnm.o chm.o omm.o mmo.H HHM.H ham.a mmN.H cmm.o omm.o me.OI oam.o mNm.o mmo.H me.o mmm.ot mNH.HI mom.o m Houomm HHo.N HCH.HI mmo.ot NHN.m ooa.ot NN¢.OI mmw.ot mHv.o Hmm.0l mHN.0I man.ot hmv.OI hmm.ol mmH.H HMH.HI mmv.o «mm.o b¢H.H mem.ot hOh.OI v Hogomm NHN.mI mmv.HI HNH.HI HHM.OI Hmm.OI hmm.0I m5m.ot mmm.o mom.o mam.o mho.HI mmN.OI mmm.ol oom.o mhm.0I mam.H mo~.o Nmm.o mvm.o mmm.o m HODUMh mmo.ou Nom.o mom.o mmm.o NNm.o omN.o mam.o wmo.o mem.o oav.o mmm.o Hmm.o hw¢.o Hmm.o mmm.o mom.o Ngv.o mam.o mm¢.o mmm.o N Houomm 1.»:oov mmmOUm m090¢m hmo.ot bHM.Ol H¢m.0| hwm.OI Hum.ol moo.o «mm.OI mvv.0I OHM.OI vom.ot Nmm.0I ham.OI oaa.o bmm.m moa.ot mmm.ou mma.ot Hom.o hmo.o mmm.ot H Houomm mxosxsm ACOOM mesm mzwmmm mefinmsxoa Hsosmmamw maflnmouflm mamwmxo ocmawnm Huouuoe mfimmmxmz mumz omomm mxmmo ouomm mmaem we: fitOflm mxosuwzm swam musuommmnm 188 Hoaomm papa OHMCOHO one A Houomm uouomm ucmsmoamfim Housuasowumm one o Houomm uouomm coaumasmom wauopam 0:9 m nouomm Houomm Sham use 4 Houomm Houomm ucofimoamsoco one m Houomm Houomm CHGHO 039 N uouomm uouomm gonna use a Houomm moo.o va.H opm.o mmm.o1 mmv.or ~m>.or wha.or maflnmommm Ham.o ~mm.o mom.oi Hmo.ai mmn.or mmm.ot mmo.or flmemmflz Hoo.o mom.o woe.o mma.or mmm.or mm~.ot Ham.OI muflo mmv.or mon.o mmo.o mma.o mo~.Hi mmm.ot 5mm.OI ODOEBEDM Hae.ou em~.o mm~.ou eem.o mee.at mea.e eoe.er Hemmmmmz moa.o mmh.a mma.ot mao.m wmm.ot Nvo.OI va.OI comm A m m w m m H Houomm uouomm Houomm Houomm Houomm Houomm nouomm musuommmum A.uGOUv mmmoum moauflm APPENDIX F GROUPS DERIVED THROUGH DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS 189 GROUPS DERIVED THROUGH DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS: Prefecture NO. Group 1 Group 2 Hokkaido Aomori Iwate Miyagi Akita Yamagata Fukushima Niigata Toyama Ishikawa Fukui Shiga Tottori Shimane Ibaraki Tochigi Gumma Chiba Saitama Tokyo Kanagawa Aichi Kyoto Osaka \lOWU'lnfi-DJN 15 16 17 18 25 31 32 10 12 ll l3 14 23 26 27 0.88394 0.99448 0.99987 0.97597 0.99997 0.99999 0.93777 0.99969 0.99984 0.76568 0.99415 0.97070 0.70463 0.91075 Group 3 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 Group l--Northern and West Coast 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 Group 2--Grain Basket 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 1.00000 0.99996 0.83871 0.68021 0.00000 0.00000 0.00043 0.31552 Group 3--Urban/Industria1 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.02867 0.00000 0.00000 0.00004 0.00002 0.00000 0.97133 1.00000 1.00000 0.99979 0.99896 1.00000 The Probabilities of Each Prefecture Belonging to Each Group* Group 4 Group 5 0.08182 0.03424 0.00047 0.00505 0.00002 0.00010 0.00511 0.01892 0.00000 0.00002 0.00001 0.00001 0.03714 0.02509 0.00026 0.00005 0.00011 0.00004 0.22943 0.00490 0.00537 0.00048 0.02277 0.00653 0.06402 0.23135 0.01683 0.07242 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00001 0.16046 0.00041 0.00412 0.00015 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00016 0.00000 0.00102 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 190 GROUPS DERIVED THROUGH DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS (Cont.) Prefecture NO. Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Hyogo Fukuoka Yamanashi Nagano Gifu Shizuoka Mie Nara Wakayama Okayama Hiroshima Yamaguchi Tokushima Kagawa Ehime Kochi Saga Nagasaki Kumamoto Oita Miyazaki Kagoshima 28 40 19 20 21 22 24 35 36 37 38 39 41 42 43 44 45 46 0.00000 0.00000 0.00042 0.19190 0.00706 0.00051 0.02965 0.00174 0.00002 0.00560 0.00003 Group 5--Southern 0.00188 0.00456 0.00017 0.00025 0.00017 0.00060 0.00044 0.00041 0.00541 0.29985 0.08859 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00025 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00003 Group 3--Urban/Industrial (cont.) 0.99524 0.99581 Group 4--Semi-Industrial 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00961 0.00001 0.00002 0.00001 0.00000 0.00087 and Inland Sea Coast 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00002 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00007 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00001 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 0.00000 Group 4 Group 5 0.00471 0.00003 0.00004 0.00416 0.98087 0.01871 0.78742 0.02068 0.98877 0.00416 0.98571 0.00392 0.76873 0.20161 0.94649 0.05175 0.78763 0.21233 0.63556 0.35881 0.97460 0.02446 0.35117 0.64688 0.11430 0.88115 0.01871 0.98111 0.33629 0.66345 0.02185 0.97798 0.00054 0.99887 0.06549 0.93446 0.02974 0.96982 0.02971 0.96488 0.03928 0.66087 0.02299 0.88842 *Group numbers in this table are not identical with the group numbers used in the text. identical. The group titles are BIBLIOGRAPHY BIBLIOGRAPHY Books Benarde, Melvin A. Race Against Famine. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: Macrae Smith Co., 1968. Borgstrom, Georg. Too Many. New York: The Macmillan Co., 1969. Broadbridge, Seymour. Industrial Dualism in Japan. Chicago: Aldine Publishing Co., 1966. Bronson, William. How To Kill A Golden State. Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Co., Inc., 1968. Bureau of Statistics. 1965 Population_gensus_of Japan. Office of the Prime Minister, Tokyo, Japan, 1966. Bureau of Statistics. Japan Statistical Yearbook, 17th & 20th editions. Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, 1967, 1970. Bureau of Statistics. Statistical Handbook Of Japan, 1970. Tokyo, Japan: Office of the Prime Minister, I§760 Ceylon Year Book 1968. Colombo, Ceylon: Department of Census and Statistics, 1968. Chang, Te Tsui (editor). Long-Term Projections of Supply, Demand and Trade for Selected Agricultural Pro- ducts in Taiwan. Taipei, Republic of China: National Taiwan University, October, 1970. China Yearbook 1969-70. Taipei, Taiwan: China Publishing Co., 1970. Chisholm, Michael. Rural Settlement and Land Use. London: Hutchinson Ufiiversity Library, 1962. Cole, J. P. and King, C. A. M. Quantitative Geography. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Ltd., 1968. 191 192 Council for International Economic Cooperation and Develop- ment. Taiwan Statistical Data Book 1970. Taipei, Taiwan: Executive Yuan, 1970. Dempster, Prue. Japan Advances: A Geographical Study. London: Methuen and Co., Ltd., 1967. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Demogpaphic Yearbook 1969. New York: United Nations, 1970. , Growth of the World's Urban and Rural Population, 1920-2000, Population Studies NO. 44 (ST/SOA/Series A/44). New York: United Nations, 1970. Economic Statistics Yearbook, 1970. Seoul, Korea: Bank of Korea, 1970. Economic Survey, 1968. Seoul, Korea: Economic Planning Board, 1968. Ehrlich, Paul R. and Ehrlich, Anne H. Population, Resources, Environment: Issues in Human Ecology. San Francisco, California: W. H. Freeman and Co., 1970. Freedman, Ronald (editor). Population: The Vital Revolu- tion. Garden City, New York: Doubleday and Co., Gallin, Bernard. Hsin Hsing, Taiwan: A Chinese Village in Change. Berkeley, California: University of California Press, 1966. Gottman, Jean, and Harper, Robert A. (editors). Metropolis On The Move: Geographers Look At Urban Sprawl. New York: John Wiley andISOns, Inc., 1967: Harman, H. H. Modern Factor Analysis. Second edition. Chicago: UniVersity of Chicago Press, 1967. Horst, Paul. Factor Analysis of Data Matrices. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1965. Japan National Tourist Organization. Japan: The New Official Guide. Tokyo, Japan: Japan Travel Bureau, Inc., 1966. King, Leslie J. Statistical Analysis in Geography. Engle- wood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1969. Komiya, Ryutaro (editor). Postwar Economic Growth in Japan. _ Berkeley, California: University Of California Press, 1966. 193 Korea Annual. Seoul, Korea: Hapdong News Agency, 1965, 1970. Norbeck, Edward. Changing Japan. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston, Inc., 1965. Schaaf, C. Hart and Fifield, Russell H. The Lower Mekong. Princeton, New Jersey: D. Van Nostrand Co., Inc., 1963. Summarypf the First Five-Year Economic Plan 1962-1966. Seoul, Korea: Economic Planning Board, 1962. Taeuber, Irene B. The Pppulation of Japan. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1958. Trewartha, Glenn T. Japan: A Geggraphy. Madison, Wiscon- sin: University OfiWisconsin Press, 1965. Trewartha, Glenn T. A Geography Of Population: WOrld Patterns. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1970. United Nations Study on Urban Land Use Policies and Land Control Measures in the ECAFE Region. Republic of China: Urban and HouSing Development Committee of CIECD, April, 1970. Essays In Collections Beaujeu-Garnier, Jacqueline, "Large Overpopulated Cities in the Underdeveloped World," Geography and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A.ROSinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 269-278. Boserup, Ester, "Present and Potential Food Production in Developing Countries," Geography and a Crowdihg World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 100-113. Clarke, John I., "Population Distribution and Dynamics in Cameroon," Geography and a Crowdinngorld, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 348-362. 194 Ehrlich, Paul R. "TOO Many People," The Environmental Handbook, Garrett de Bell, editor. New York: Ballantine Books, Inc., 1970. Hart, John Fraser. "The Adjustment of Rural Population to Diminishing Land Resources," Geographyyand a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 95—99. Higbee, Edward. "Agricultural Land on the Urban Fringe," Metropglis on the Move: Geographers Look at Urban Sprawl, Jean Gottman and Robert A. Harper, editors. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1967, pp. 57- 66. Keyfitz, Nathan. "Population Trends in Newly Developing Countries," Population: The Vital Revolution. Ronald Freedman, editor. New York: Doubleday and Co., 1964, pp. 149-165. Rosciszewski, Marcin. "Population Growth and Economic Development in Egypt," Geography and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 332-347. Simkins, Paul D. "Migration as a Response to Population Pressure: The Case of the Philippines," Geography and a Crowding World, Wilbur Zelinsky, Leszek A. Kosinsky, and R. Mansell Prothero, editors. New York: Oxford University Press, 1970, pp. 259-268. Spengler, Joseph J. "Population and Economic Growth," Population: The Vital Revolution. Ronald Freedman, editor. New York: Doubleday and Co., 1964, pp. 59- 69. Stolnitz, George J. "The Demographic Transition: From High to Low Birth Rates," Population: The Vital Revolu- tion. Ronald Freedman, editor. Garden City, New YorE: Doubleday and Co., Inc., 1964, pp. 30-46. Periodicals Anonymous. "Korea Produces New Type Rice," Korean Report, 9:30, July-September, 1969. 195 . "The Third World: Seeds of Revolution," Time. July 13, 1970, pp. 24, 27. Blumenfeld, Hans. "The Tidal Wave of Metropolitan Expan- sion," Journal of the American Institute of Planr ners. 20: 3-14, 1954.“ Brown, Lester R. "The World Outlook for Conventional Agri- culture," Science, 148: 604-611, November, 1967. Buchanan, Ronald H. "Toward Netherlands 2000: The Dutch National Plan," Economic Geography, 45:258-274, July, 1969. Chen, Cheng-siang. "The Urban Growth in Taiwan," Industpy of Free China. December, 1962, pp. 2-8. Chi, SOO Youk. "The Economic Program and Population," Korean Affairs. 1:35-38, February-March, 1962. Davis, S. G. "The Rural-Urban Migration in Hong Kong and its New Territories," Geographical Journal. 128, 328-333, September, 1962. Eyre, John D. "Industrial Growth in the Suwa Basin, Japan," The Geogpaphical Review, 53:487-502. October, 1963. . “Tokyo Influences in the Manufacturing Geography Of Saitama Prefecture," Economic Geography, 39:283- 298, October, 1963. Feng, Yukon. "Urbanization Policy and Metropolitan Plan- ning in Taiwan," Industry of Free China. 25:20-30, 25:23-42, 1966. Fessler, Loren. "Taiwan As A Model For Family Planning," American Universities Field Staff Reports. East Asia Series, Vol. 17, NO. 7, May, 1970. Freedman, Ronald. "The Accelerating Fertility Decline in Taiwan," ngulation Index. 31:430-435. October 1965. . "The Continuing Fertility Decline in Taiwan," Population Index. 33:3-17, January-March, 1967. , and others. "Hong Kong's Fertility Decline: 1961-68," Population Index, 36:3-18, January-March, 1970. 196 Fukui, Hideo. "Some Aspects of Recent Changes in Japanese Rice Farming," Science Reports of the Tohoku Universipy_(7th series), 15:25-33, March, 1966. Gonzalez, Alfonso. "Population Growth and Socio-Economic Development: The Latin American Experience," Journal of Geography, 70:36-46, January, 1971. Golledge, R. G. "Sydney's Metropolitan Fringe: A Study in Urban-Rural Relations," The Australian Geog- rapher, 7:243-255, February, 1960. Griffin, Paul F. and Chatham, Ronald L. "Urban Impact on Agriculture in Santa Clara County, California," Annals of the Association Of American Geographers, 48:195-208, September, 1958. Hanna, Willard A. "The Mekong Project," (seven parts), American Universities Field Staff Reports, Southeast Asia Series, Vol. 16, Nos. 10-14, 16, and 17. Hart, John Fraser. "Loss and Abandonment of Cleared Farm Land in the Eastern United States," Annals Of the Association of American Geographers. 58:417-440, September, 1968. Hasegawa, Norio. "Spatial Variation of Land Value and Land Use--Case Study of Sendai and Hirosaki," Science Reports of the Tohoku Universipy (7th serieS), 12:145-158, March, 1963. . "Changes in the Spatial Variation Of Land Value and Land Use," Science Reports of the Tohuku University (7th series), 13:157-164, March, 1964. "Recent Development of Regional Plannings in Japan," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 18:137-168, March, 1969. Hough, Richard F. "Impact of the Decline of Raw Silk on Two Major Cocoon-Producing Regions in Japan," Annals Of the Association of American Geographers, 58:221-249, June, 1968? Hsueh, Y. L. "Doubling the Rice Crop," Free China Review. 14: 27-31, October, 1964. Kaczorowski, Michal. "The Warsaw Metropolitan Region," Papers: Regional Science Association, Cracow Con- gress, 1965, 16:93-103, 1966. 197 Kao, Charles H. C. "The Factor Contribution of Agriculture to Economic Development: A Study of Taiwan," Asian Survey, 5:558-565, November, 1965. Kawabe, Hiroshi. "The Study of the Areal Differences of Migration in Tokyo," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 13:79-93, March, 1964. Kim, Young-moon. "Population and Urban Movement," Korean Journal. 4:18-21, 1964. King, Leslie J. "Discriminant Analysis: A Review Of Re- cent Theoretical Contributions and Applications," Economic Geography (Supplement), 46:367-378, June, 1970. Korcelli, Piotr. "A Wave-Like Model of Metropolitan Spatial Growth," Papers: Regional Science Associ- ation, Ninth European Congress, 1970. 24:127-138, 1970. Ladejinsky, Wolf. "Ironies of India's Green Revolution," Foreign Affairs. 48:758-768, July, 1970. Lee, Duk Hee. "The Origin and Growth of Urbanization in Korea," Bulletin of the Korean Research Center, 25:48-58, 1966. LO, C. P. "Changing Population Distribution in the Hong Kong New Territories," Annals of the Association of American Geographers. 58:273-284, June, 1968. Nelson, Howard J. "The Spread of an Artificial Landscape Over Southern California," Annals of the Associa- tion Of American Geographers. 49:80-100, Septem- ber, 1959. Ogasawara, Setsuo. "Recent Changes in and Around the Urban Area of Sendai," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 15:117-128, March, 1966. . "Population Movement in Sapporo Metropolitan Area," Science Reports of the Tohoku Universipy (7th series), 16:85-93, March, 1967. Rikkinen, Kalevi. "Change in Village and Rural Population with Distance From Duluth," Economic Geography, 44:312-325, October, 1968. 198 Rummel, R. J. "Understanding Factor Analysis," Journal Of Conflict Resolution, 11:444-480, December, 1967. Russwurm, Lorne H. "Expanding Urbanization and Selected Agricultural Elements: Case Study, Southwestern Ontario," Land Economics. 43:101-107, February, 1967. Sinclair, Robert. "Von Thunen and Urban Sprawl," Annals Of the Association of American Geographers. 57:72-87, March, 1967. Smith, Derek L. "Market Gardening at Adelaide's Urban Fringe," Economic Geography, 42:19-36, January, 1966. Steiner, Rodney. "Reserved Lands and the Supply of Space for the Southern California MetrOpOlis," The Geographical Review. 56:344-362, July, 1966. Tanabe, Ken-ichi. "Housing Suburbs at the Northern Part of Sendai," Science Reports Of the Tohoku Uni- versity (7th series), 12:133-143, March, 1963. . "Some Examples of the Type of Urbanization Under the Influence of Industrialization," Science Reports of the Tohoku University (7th series), 13:147-156, March, 1964. Thompson, John H. "Manufacturing in the Kita Kyushu Industrial Zone of Japan," Annals of the Associa- tion of American Geographers. 49:420-442, Decem- ber, 1959. Tosi, Jr.; Joseph A.; and Voertman, Robert F. "Some En- vironmental Factors in the Economic Development of the Tropics," Economic Geography. 40:189- 205, July, 1964. United States Department of State. Background Notes: Thailand. Washington, D.C.: United States Government Printing Office, April, 1968. Vandermeer, Canute. "Changing Water Control in a Taiwanese Rice-Field Irrigation System," Annals of the Association Of American Geographer. 58:720-747, December, 1968. Van Roy, Edward. "The Malthusian Squeeze," Asian Survey. 7:469—481, July, 1967. 199 Vaughan, T. D., and Dwyer, D. J. "Some Aspects of Postwar Population Growth in Hong Kong," Economic Geog: raphy. 42:37-51, January, 1966. Walker, Harley J. "Overpopulation in Mauritius: A Survey," The Geographical Review. 54:243-248, April, 1964. Ward, Marion W. "A Review of Problems and Achievements in the Economic Development Of Malaya," Economic Geography, 44:326-342, October, 1968. Wehrwein, George S. "The Rural Urban Fringe," Economic Geography. 18:217-228, July, 1942. Wharton, Jr., Clifton R. "The Green Revolution: Conrucopia or Pandora's Box?" Foreign Affairs. 47:464-476, April, 1969. White, Gilbert F. "The Mekong River Plan," Scientific American, April, 1963, pp. 49-59. Wills, N. R. "The Rural-Urban Fringe--Some Agricultural Characteristics," The Australian Geographer. 5: 29-35, 1945. Wolf, Laurence G. "The Metropolitan Tidal Wave in Ohio: 1900-2000," Economic Geography. 45:133-154, April, 1969. Wong, C. T. "Some Notes on Agricultural Geography in Hong Kong," The Geography Teacher, 1970, pp. 25- 34. Yuan, D. Y. "The Rural-Urban Continuum: A Case Study Of Taiwan," Rural Sociology. 29:247-260, 1964. Computer Programs Kay, Kevin, and Kirk, Rodney C. BMDOSM--Discriminant Analysis For Several Groups (Technical Report 31). East Lansing, Michigan: Computer Institute for Social Science Research, Michigan State University, June, 1967. Peterson, James; Foster, Glenn; and Paul, Robert. FACTOR AA (Technical Report NO. 34.1). East Lansing, Michigan: Computer Institute for Social Science Research, Michigan State University, May, 1969. 200 Price, Leighton A., and Peterson, James L. Control Cards For Programs on the New 6500 CISSR Libraryygystem. (Technical Report NO. 70-4). East Lansing, MICHI- gan: Computer Institute for Social Science Re- search, Michigan State University, June 25, 1970. 7074 Illl m1 H6 ”o