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- Online Learning Algorithms for Mining Trajectory data and their Applications
- Wang, Ding
- Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Trajectories are spatio-temporal data that represent traces of moving objects, such as humans, migrating animals, vehicles, and tropical cyclones. In addition to the geo-location information, a trajectory data often contain other (non-spatial) features describing the states of the moving objects. The time-varying geo-location and state information would collectively characterize a trajectory dataset, which can be harnessed to understand the dynamics of the moving objects. This thesis focuses...
Show moreTrajectories are spatio-temporal data that represent traces of moving objects, such as humans, migrating animals, vehicles, and tropical cyclones. In addition to the geo-location information, a trajectory data often contain other (non-spatial) features describing the states of the moving objects. The time-varying geo-location and state information would collectively characterize a trajectory dataset, which can be harnessed to understand the dynamics of the moving objects. This thesis focuses on the development of efficient and accurate machine learning algorithms for forecasting the future trajectory path and state of a moving object. Although many methods have been developed in recent years, there are still numerous challenges that have not been sufficiently addressed by existing methods, which hamper their effectiveness when applied to critical applications such as hurricane prediction. These challenges include their difficulties in terms of handling concept drifts, error propagation in long-term forecasts, missing values, and nonlinearities in the data. In this thesis, I present a family of online learning algorithms to address these challenges. Online learning is an effective approach as it can efficiently fit new observations while adapting to concept drifts present in the data. First, I proposed an online learning framework called OMuLeT for long-term forecasting of the trajectory paths of moving objects. OMuLeT employs an online learning with restart strategy to incrementally update the weights of its predictive model as new observation data become available. It can also handle missing values in the data using a novel weight renormalization strategy.Second, I introduced the OOR framework to predict the future state of the moving object. Since the state can be represented by ordinal values, OOR employs a novel ordinal loss function to train its model. In addition, the framework was extended to OOQR to accommodate a quantile loss function to improve its prediction accuracy for larger values on the ordinal scale. Furthermore, I also developed the OOR-ε and OOQR-ε frameworks to generate real-valued state predictions using the ε insensitivity loss function.Third, I developed an online learning framework called JOHAN, that simultaneously predicts the location and state of the moving object. JOHAN generates its predictions by leveraging the relationship between the state and location information. JOHAN utilizes a quantile loss function to bias the algorithm towards predicting more accurately large categorical values in terms of the state of the moving object, say, for a high intensity hurricane.Finally, I present a deep learning framework to capture non-linear relationships in trajectory data. The proposed DTP framework employs a TDM approach for imputing missing values, coupled with an LSTM architecture for dynamic path prediction. In addition, the framework was extended to ODTP, which applied an online learning setting to address concept drifts present in the trajectory data.As proof of concept, the proposed algorithms were applied to the hurricane prediction task. Both OMuLeT and ODTP were used to predict the future trajectory path of a hurricane up to 48 hours lead time. Experimental results showed that OMuLeT and ODTP outperformed various baseline methods, including the official forecasts produced by the U.S. National Hurricane Center. OOR was applied to predict the intensity of a hurricane up to 48 hours in advance. Experimental results showed that OOR outperformed various state-of-the-art online learning methods and can generate predictions close to the NHC official forecasts. Since hurricane intensity prediction is a notoriously hard problem, JOHAN was applied to improve its prediction accuracy by leveraging the trajectory information, particularly for high intensity hurricanes that are near landfall.