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Title
CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND CHANGE IN THE MIDWESTERN UNITED STATES : IMPLICATIONS FOR NITROGEN LEACHING IN AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS
Creator
Baule, William James
Date
2022
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
How has the background climate of the Midwestern United States changed over recent decades and how has this affected nitrate leaching? These are the core questions addressed in this dissertation, through three self-contained studies focused on different aspects of the climate-agriculture interface in the Midwestern United States. In Chapter 2, statistical methods are used to quantify the solar radiation biases present in a widely used reanalysis-based hydrometeorological dataset over space,...
Show moreHow has the background climate of the Midwestern United States changed over recent decades and how has this affected nitrate leaching? These are the core questions addressed in this dissertation, through three self-contained studies focused on different aspects of the climate-agriculture interface in the Midwestern United States. In Chapter 2, statistical methods are used to quantify the solar radiation biases present in a widely used reanalysis-based hydrometeorological dataset over space, implement statistical bias correction and interpolation to address the spatial nature of this bias, and quantify the impacts of the solar radiation bias and proposed correction on simulated maize yields and water stress. Correction of reanalysis solar radiation alone brought simulated yield and water usage more in line with simulations forced with in-situ solar radiation. Chapter 3 examines changes in precipitation, utilizing a unique approach to station screening during the period 1951-2019 over a region encompassing the Great Lakes and broader Midwestern regions, of the United States. A multiple tier procedure was utilized to identify high quality input data series from the Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily dataset. Temporal and spatial trends were analyzed for a broad range of related annual and seasonal indicators ranging from accumulated totals and frequency of threshold events to event duration and potential linkages with total precipitable water. Our analyses confirm the results of previous studies while providing unique insights to data quality and seasonality. The trends of the indicators in our study exhibited more cohesive spatial patterns and temporal similarities when compared with studies with different quality control criteria, illustrating the importance of quality control of observations in climatic studies and highlighting the complexity of the changing character of precipitation. In Chapter 4, System Approach to Land Use Sustainability, a process-based crop model was applied with gridded soil and meteorological data using a yield stability zone concept to simulate corn and soybean production in 14 Midwestern states at the sub-field scale during the 1989-2019 period. Five zones based on multi-year yield stability were simulated for each field at 30m x 30m resolution, with zones being relative to each individual field. Outputs were evaluated using a nitrogen balance approach to establish zone-specific statistical distributions of nitrate leaching across the 14 states, specifically highlighting periods with changing and highly variable precipitation. Results indicate that low stable, unstable hill tops, and unstable slope zones are associated with an outsized contribution to overall nitrate leaching and that unstable zones exhibit variable year-to-year response to weather tied to their position in the landscape. Spatial analysis of the results suggests leaching is tied to precipitation variability, water stress, and total precipitation amount. In aggregate, the chapters presented here highlight the interconnectedness of the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum to changes in hydrologic regime and sensitivity to the biases in the data used to conduct analyses, run models, and from which conclusions are drawn. The study findings shed light on the potential for improved management of agricultural fields and illustrate how process-based crop models can be useful for designing management practices to reduce environmental pollution and increase profits to producers.
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Title
Spatial and temporal trends of soil moisture in the Great Lakes region of the USA, 1900-2008
Creator
Pollyea, Aaron Micah
Date
2013
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
Soil moisture is a key integrative variable in natural and managed ecosystems, dependent on a location's climate, vegetative cover, soil type, topography, and other factors. A study of spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture in the Great Lakes region of the USA was undertaken to better understand the impacts of varying land cover and soil types as well as variations in climate. Soil moisture was simulated with the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for 5 different land cover...
Show moreSoil moisture is a key integrative variable in natural and managed ecosystems, dependent on a location's climate, vegetative cover, soil type, topography, and other factors. A study of spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture in the Great Lakes region of the USA was undertaken to better understand the impacts of varying land cover and soil types as well as variations in climate. Soil moisture was simulated with the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for 5 different land cover types and 6 representative soil types at 29 climate observation sites across the region during a study period of 1900-2008.Significant increases in growing season soil moisture levels were found across much of the region during the study period associated with concurrent increases in precipitation, the largest positive trends in south eastern Michigan and the largest negative trends in eastern Iowa. Some distinct changes in seasonality were also noted. The average date during the spring season on which soil moisture fell below field capacity is gradually occurring up to 18 days earlier in the year over the study period. Similarly, the dates at which the minimum soil moisture occurred each warm season and the date of recharge of soil moisture to field capacity late in the calendar year occurred up to 19 days earlier.Collectively, the results suggest that soil moisture and plant available water across the region have increased with time with a corresponding decrease in the risk of water-related stress, which has important implications for plant-based agriculture and the management of natural resources.
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Title
THE CLIMATOLOGY OF SPRINGTIME FREEZE EVENTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN USA
Creator
Wang, Ting
Date
2021
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
The agricultural productions in the central and eastern United States are sensitive to springtime freeze events. As a result of global warming, increasing temperatures have led to earlier shifted springs, usually called false springs, which have resulted in disastrous damage on premature plants exposed to subsequent freeze events. This study analyzes the climatology of springtime freezes and their impacts on agriculture in the Midwestern United States for the period of 1981-2018. The study...
Show moreThe agricultural productions in the central and eastern United States are sensitive to springtime freeze events. As a result of global warming, increasing temperatures have led to earlier shifted springs, usually called false springs, which have resulted in disastrous damage on premature plants exposed to subsequent freeze events. This study analyzes the climatology of springtime freezes and their impacts on agriculture in the Midwestern United States for the period of 1981-2018. The study began by evaluating two potential datasets for the purpose of this analysis: the PRISM (Parameter- elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model, http://prism.oregonstate.edu) analysis and the ERA5 (the fifth major global reanalysis produced by European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Hersbach et al., 2018) reanalysis. The PRISM data are found to be a better representation of the observed freezing events and therefore used for establishing freeze events climatology, while the ERA5 reanalysis is used to understand the weather conditions and climate background of the freeze events. Freezing days in March show a decreasing trend across our study region from 1981 to 2018. EOF analysis of freezing days in March shows a relatively larger variation in the Ohio Valley, and the first EOF time series shows substantial interannual variability. The positive phase of NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is usually associated with less freezing risk in March across the study region. A crop yield simulation model is used to investigate the historical impacts of false springs and subsequent freeze events on fruit crop yields using apple as an example. Damage tends to occur at the early growing stages of apples when they are more vulnerable. Damage is generally occurring on earlier and warmer days, which could be due to the more frequent false spring occurrences. The Upper Midwest and the Northeast are regions that are less vulnerable to freeze damage.
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Title
The impact of climate variability and change on sweet potato production in East Africa
Creator
Ddumba, Saul Daniel
Date
2018
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
Over decades, food production in East Africa has been affected by a changing climate, limited use of fertilizers and pest control, inadequate food storage facilities and complex marketing channels that together have led to malnutrition, hunger, and poverty. The six most important food crops feeding the region include cassava, maize, plantains, sweet potatoes, potatoes and paddy rice. Of all these crops, relatively little is known about how climate influences sweet potato growth, development,...
Show moreOver decades, food production in East Africa has been affected by a changing climate, limited use of fertilizers and pest control, inadequate food storage facilities and complex marketing channels that together have led to malnutrition, hunger, and poverty. The six most important food crops feeding the region include cassava, maize, plantains, sweet potatoes, potatoes and paddy rice. Of all these crops, relatively little is known about how climate influences sweet potato growth, development, and yield. Deterministic simulation models for sweet potatoes exist but are relatively young or still in development. Relevant data for climate impact assessments are scarce: detailed agronomic data for sweet potato cultivars grown in East Africa are limited; representative high-quality climate data for the region are scarce, and soils data is only available at coarse spatial resolution. The major objective of this research was therefore to assess the impact of climate variability and change on sweet potato production in East Africa. This was achieved by: (i) developing a modeling framework for use in a deterministic sweet potato crop model, SPOTCOMS, for East Africa; (ii) analyzing trends of historical climate and sweet potato root yields for the period 1980-2009; (iii) developing local climate change scenarios for East Africa for the current time slice 2010s, near future 2030s, mid-future 2050s and distant future 2050s using two representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 for four Global Climate Models, CSIRO, MIROC5, MRICGC3-M and NorESM-1; and (iv) estimating the impact of projected future climate change on sweet potato production using SPOTCOMS model. Crop coefficients where determined from field trials for four sweet potato cultivars, NASPOT 1, NASPOT 10 0, NASPOT 11 and SPK004. Results from the calibration and evaluation of SPOTCOMS model gave an index of agreement (IA) of 0.94 and 0.7, a modeling efficiency of 0.9 and 0.31, and a mean bias error of 1.16 t/ha and 0.5 t/ha respectively. Trend analysis indicated that East Africa had warmed on average by 1.50C, the rainfall for the February-June season had declined by more than 60 mm while rainfall for the August – December season had increased for most parts of East Africa by more than 50 mm over the past 30 years. The results of future climate projections from Global Climate Models showed mixed results for precipitation and more distinct results for temperatures. Temperatures in the region were projected to rise by 0.80C, 1.20C and more than 30C in the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s respectively and precipitation is projected to consist of more increases in the short rainfall intensity than the long rains for all the three future time slices. The sensitivity analysis showed that SPOTCOMS was sensitive to increase in precipitation and temperature for all the four sweet potato cultivars, NASPOT 1, NASPOT 10 0, NASPOT 11 and SPK004. The projected increase in sweet potato yield in the region coincides with areas that will experience increases in precipitation and temperature. Models with the larger radiative forcing of RCP8.5 showed an overall higher increase in precipitation, temperatures and therefore higher increases in sweet potato yield. All the four cultivars (NASPOT 1, NASPOT 10 0, SPK004 and NASPOT 11) showed similar spatial distribution of yields but SPK004 had lower yields for both historical and projected future periods. Results from this study are useful to all stakeholders interested in sweet potato production in East Africa and the rest of the tropics.
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Title
Use of water mist to reduce the risk of frost damage in tree fruits
Creator
Rijal, Ishara
Date
2017
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
Climate variability and change have been major threats to global food security historically and will almost certainly continue to be threats in the future given the sensitivity of agricultural production systems to their surrounding environment. Recent changes in temperature and seasonality have significantly impacted commercial fruit production in the Great Lakes region. Michigan's sour cherry and apple production in 2012 was reduced by about 90% and 88%, respectively, compared to the...
Show moreClimate variability and change have been major threats to global food security historically and will almost certainly continue to be threats in the future given the sensitivity of agricultural production systems to their surrounding environment. Recent changes in temperature and seasonality have significantly impacted commercial fruit production in the Great Lakes region. Michigan's sour cherry and apple production in 2012 was reduced by about 90% and 88%, respectively, compared to the previous year's production due to a series of spring freeze events (USDA, 2013). The timing of the seasonal warm up in the spring and resulting onset of phenological development is a key factor in determining potential cold damage risk for overwintering perennial tree fruit crops, as the vulnerability of vegetation to freeze injury increases rapidly with the stage of development. Application of water prior to the onset of growth has been used in the past to delay early vegetative development of temperate tree fruit crops. Evaporative cooling associated with this approach effectively reduces plant tissue temperature, slowing the rate of growth and leaving it less vulnerable to freezing temperatures. There are several potential drawbacks, however, including consumption of large quantities of water that could increase nutrient leaching along with elevated risks of plant disease risk. This study examined the potential effectiveness of water applied as a spray mist via a new plant management technology, the solid set canopy delivery system (SSCD), to suppress tree fruit bud temperatures and delay the phenological development of the buds. There were two major portions: 1) A detailed collection of field-based phenological and physiological observations associated with the operation of a prototype SSCD cooling system and: 2) Development of a deterministic model of tree fruit bud temperature that was used to examine the potential of water-based cooling of buds in Michigan. The observational study aimed to identify the timing and discharge rate of mist applications on cherry and apple trees was carried out in a growth chamber and at five Michigan orchards (apple at St. Joseph, Charlotte, and Hillsdale, sweet cherry at SWMREC, and sour cherry at Traverse City,) during the 2014, 2015, and 2016 growing seasons with automated instrumentation to monitor and control the water mist flow rate based on environmental conditions. Water mist was applied to apple and cherry buds via the SSCD system after the end of endo-dormancy until king bloom in the non-misted buds based on ambient air temperature and relative humidity. Overall, in three years of the field study misting delayed bloom by 4-9 days in apple and 7- 11 days in cherry, all using substantially less water than that reported in earlier studies; 8.4 to 26 cm/ha in apple and 5.5 to 10.8 cm/ ha in sweet cherry. The deterministic heat transfer model of a tree fruit bud was developed with observational data from growth chamber, potted plant and field-based studies. The model was calibrated using growth chamber data and validated using potted plant and field data. In a model validation study, model simulated one-minute bud temperatures were generally found to be in good agreement with observed bud temperatures, with overall mean average differences of -0.5±0.30C (lab observations) and -0.3±0.15 0C (field observations), mean absolute differences less than 10C and R-square values of 0.80 or greater. The model was then run with ten years of hourly climate data at three locations in major fruit-producing regions of Michigan (2006-2015). Overall, the model estimated a delay in bloom of misted buds by more than a week compared to non-misted buds, which translates into a potential reduction in the frequency of damaging freeze events of 50-75 %, and decrease in freeze injury severity by 10-60 % in misted apple buds and 45-100% in misted cherry buds. Collectively, the results suggest that the spray mist technique has promise as a straightforward and effective indirect frost control strategy with relatively few environmental impacts.
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Title
Climatology of springtime freeze events in the Great Lakes Region and their impact on sour cherry yields in historical and projected future time frames
Creator
Rill, Lydia
Date
2016
Collection
Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description
"Production of sour cherries has a significant impact on the economy of the Great Lakes Region, valued at more than $74 million. In contrast to cereal crops where water is the most limiting factor, perennials in temperate regions are limited by freeze injury, especially in the spring following initial phenological development, which was highlighted in 2002 and 2012 when yields decreased considerably. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of springtime freeze events in the...
Show more"Production of sour cherries has a significant impact on the economy of the Great Lakes Region, valued at more than $74 million. In contrast to cereal crops where water is the most limiting factor, perennials in temperate regions are limited by freeze injury, especially in the spring following initial phenological development, which was highlighted in 2002 and 2012 when yields decreased considerably. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of springtime freeze events in the Great Lakes Region and their impact on sour cherry production, as well as explored the use of gridded climatic datasets. Additionally, this study examined the historical trends in sour cherry yield and potential future changes by the mid-century. The Great Lakes played a major role in the spatial variability of springtime freezes, as locations inland experienced colder temperatures than near the coast. Simulated damaging freeze events over the past 50 years were most common during the later phenological stages of the crop, while the most severe damage occurred in the earlier stages. Gridded datasets were less suitable for this application than individual station observations. Over time, phenological development has tended to begin earlier, and this trend was projected to continue into the mid-century at three stations located in northwest, west central, and southwest Lower Michigan. An ensemble of climate projections indicated a large uncertainty envelope surrounding changes in simulated sour cherry yield. The projected changes varied by emissions scenario, downscaling method, and climate model."--Page ii.
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