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Title: Essays on farm fertilizer profitability and demand
Creator: Ariga, Joshua
Date: 2013
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: The 2007/08 increase in world input and output prices put pressure on governments to intervene in markets using various policies including subsidies in an effort to raise agricultural production, incomes, and alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Countries like Russia and China implemented protectionist policies involving export restrictions on fertilizers and cereal outputs in a bid to encourage domestic production and safeguard against high food prices from speculation in futures markets....
Show moreThe 2007/08 increase in world input and output prices put pressure on governments to intervene in markets using various policies including subsidies in an effort to raise agricultural production, incomes, and alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Countries like Russia and China implemented protectionist policies involving export restrictions on fertilizers and cereal outputs in a bid to encourage domestic production and safeguard against high food prices from speculation in futures markets. Such fears also influenced developing countries to subsidize inputs and implement social safety-net programs. Due to the increased interest in agricultural intensification, it is important for policy makers to be informed on the contribution of fertilizer to farm incomes in different agroecological zones so that interventions are tailored to local conditions. Essay 1 uses rigorous econometric methods on a rural household panel dataset to provide insights on the spatial heterogeneity of the effect of fertilizer on yields and household incomes and so the need for location-specific intervention. The results show that using a complementary set of improved technologies (fertilizer and hybrid seed) has significant yield effect. However, under moisture stress conditions, yields are negatively affected for hybrid compared to non-hybrid seed, indicating the importance of using improved technology that is appropriate to specific local conditions. The results show that it is not profitable to use fertilizers in some zones. There is spatial heterogeneity in Marginal Value-to-Cost Ratio (MVCR) and Average Value-to-Cost Ratio (AVCR) estimates. This has implications on government intervention through blanket non-targeted subsidies that do not take into account the local conditions and profitability of using fertilizers. This is an important contribution that can aid subsidy and other agricultural investment efforts in Kenya. For areas facing uncertain weather conditions, policies that aim to encourage fertilizer use have to tackle the production risks. Essay 2 explains results from Essay 1 that show differences in demand even within areas where fertilizer is potentially profitable to use. Essay 2 uses econometric approaches that mitigate bias from endogeneity to analyze factors that influence farmers' decision to use fertilizer. Distance to fertilizer seller is shorter, prices lower, and fertilizer use higher in areas with relatively more rainfall and less moisture stress. There is a complementarity between investments in access to information (extension), other infrastructure, and fertilizer adoption. Indicators of wealth like land size, value of agricultural assets, and using tractor or animal draught for land preparation have a positive and significant effect on the probability of purchasing fertilizer, while higher fertilizer prices have negative effect on use. Therefore, government policy that encourages private investments in the distribution of fertilizers coupled with training on the agronomic aspects and benefits of using fertilizers can be important in raising production. In cases where resources are constrained and fertilizer prices relatively high (as in remote dry areas in low potential regions), intervention in form of targeted subsidies may contribute to adoption of fertilizers.
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Title: Farmers' behaviour in the face of uncertainty : a behavioural economics approach to farmers' land and insurance decisions
Creator: Doidge, Mary Kathryn
Date: 2019
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: Neoclassical economic theory hinges on the assumption of rational behaviour. The study of agents' behaviour in the face of risk and uncertainty is often guided by this assumption: agents are assumed to make predictions based on the information available to them and make choices that maximize their expected profit or expected utility. However, research has shown these assumptions are often violated. That is, people do not always behave rationally. Behavioural economics examines the behavioural...
Show moreNeoclassical economic theory hinges on the assumption of rational behaviour. The study of agents' behaviour in the face of risk and uncertainty is often guided by this assumption: agents are assumed to make predictions based on the information available to them and make choices that maximize their expected profit or expected utility. However, research has shown these assumptions are often violated. That is, people do not always behave rationally. Behavioural economics examines the behavioural assumptions of neoclassical economics more critically. Agents are recognised to have non-rational tendencies that often contradict the assumptions and predictions of neoclassical economic theory. Incorporating work of other disciplines, primarily psychological, behavioural economics aims to move away from some of these unrealistic assumptions to more accurately describe and predict agents' economic decisions. Despite the increasing popularity of behavioural economics as a discipline, its methods and principles are applied most often in the consumer behaviour literature. The application of behavioural economics principles to agricultural producers, and the potential implications of behavioural economics in agricultural economics, have received comparatively less attention. The three essays in dissertation take a behavioural approach to decisions of agricultural producers in risky scenarios, paying particular attention to the gambler's and hot hand fallacies (Essay 1), third generation prospect theory (Essay 2), and regret theory (Essay 3). This work contributes to the agricultural economics literature by addressing some of the shortcomings in the neoclassical models frequently used in the discipline. By moving beyond the assumptions of these models and applying some principles of behavioural economics, I endeavour to more accurately model agents' behaviour in the face of risk. Farmers must make important and potentially consequential decisions about their operations. How farmers behave in risky situations is an important area of study, with potential implications for the natural environment, commodity supply, and policy at many levels. Studying and understanding how farmers behave in risky situations is important for how they respond to policy changes, as well as understanding the consequential decisions they make for their operations, which have the potential to more broadly impact the economy and natural environment.
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Title: External facilitation of sustainable market linkages in the agri-food supply chain : evidence from the USDA Marketing Assistance Program in the Armenian dairy and vegetable industries
Creator: Shanoyan, Aleksan
Date: 2011
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: "This dissertation research is motivated by the policy concerns regarding the long-term sustainability of externally facilitated supply chain linkages and by the practical implications of better understanding the appropriate business models, incentive structures, and enforcement mechanisms in the context of external facilitation of supply chain linkages.00A0The dissertation consists of three essays."--From abstract.

Title: The value of accelerated depreciation use by farmers : evidence from Michigan
Creator: Polzin, Leonard Lloyd
Date: 2016
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: In 1981 the IRS tax code created Section 179 depreciation deductions. Section 179 was a form of accelerated depreciation, allowing farmers to deduct a larger amount of depreciation in the year an asset was placed in service. In 2002 “Bonus” depreciation was added as another form of accelerated depreciation available to farm tax filers. Both forms of accelerated depreciation allowed farmers to take large amounts of depreciation in the first year relative to the default tax depreciation known...
Show moreIn 1981 the IRS tax code created Section 179 depreciation deductions. Section 179 was a form of accelerated depreciation, allowing farmers to deduct a larger amount of depreciation in the year an asset was placed in service. In 2002 “Bonus” depreciation was added as another form of accelerated depreciation available to farm tax filers. Both forms of accelerated depreciation allowed farmers to take large amounts of depreciation in the first year relative to the default tax depreciation known as the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System (MACRS). These accelerated depreciation deductions allowed farmers to decrease their taxable income, thus saving them money and incentivizing investment. The objectives of this thesis are to examine: which farms use accelerated depreciation, when and how much they use it; what is the after tax present value of accelerated depreciation deductions; and what is farmers realized decreased cost of capital from these tax policies and implications for investment. This research finds that the after tax present value of accelerated depreciation deductions revealed significant values across all farm types and asset classes. Because of accelerated depreciation use farmers realized decreased cost of capital from accelerated depreciation tax policies. Finally, farmer investments were most responsive in 7 and 10 year property from accelerated depreciation use.
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Title: Effects of late delivery of fertilizer under the farmer input support program on technical efficiency and maize production in Zambia
Creator: Namonje-Kapembwa, Thelma
Date: 2015
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: ABSTRACTEFFECTS OF LATE DELIVERY OF FERTILIZER UNDER THE FARMER INPUT SUPPORT PROGRAM ON TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AND MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIABYThelma Sichone NamonjeThis thesis examined the effects of late delivery of subsidized fertilizer on smallholder farmer's technical efficiency and maize production in Zambia using nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data for the 2010/11 agricultural season. A maize yield response model at field level was estimated using a...
Show moreABSTRACTEFFECTS OF LATE DELIVERY OF FERTILIZER UNDER THE FARMER INPUT SUPPORT PROGRAM ON TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AND MAIZE PRODUCTION IN ZAMBIABYThelma Sichone NamonjeThis thesis examined the effects of late delivery of subsidized fertilizer on smallholder farmer's technical efficiency and maize production in Zambia using nationally representative cross-sectional household survey data for the 2010/11 agricultural season. A maize yield response model at field level was estimated using a Stochastic Frontier Approach for cross-sectional data. Results indicate that late delivery of fertilizer reduces technical efficiency and maize yield by 4.2%. The estimated results are then extrapolated to quantify the loss in national maize output. The foregone maize output due to late delivery of fertilizer in the 2010/11 farming season was 84,924 metric tons. When valued at the government's maize purchase price, the forgone income is equivalent to USD 21.2 million. Furthermore, by limiting the sample to only households that obtained fertilizer from the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP), a probit model was used to determine whether household and individual attributes affect timely receipt to fertilizer. It was found that households with large landholding size and high value of productive assets were more likely to receive fertilizer on time, ceteris paribus. It was also found that households with social connections with village headmen/chiefs were more likely to receive fertilizer on time compared to other households. These results indicate that late delivery of FISP fertilizer is not random and that the relatively poor and marginalized rural households are disproportionately incurring the lower production and income effects of late fertilizer delivery.
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Title: Maize production in Zambia and regional marketing : input productivity and output price transmission
Creator: Burke, William Jerome
Date: 2012
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: William J. BurkeChapter 1 is an analysis of the determinants of maize yield response to fertilizer applications using longitudinal data collected in 2004 and 2008 from 7,127 smallholder maize fields. The Instrumented Pooled Correlated Random Effects estimator is employed to control for several statistical considerations often overlooked in the social science literature on smallholder production. The model is specified such that response rates to fertilizer application are conditional on...
Show moreWilliam J. BurkeChapter 1 is an analysis of the determinants of maize yield response to fertilizer applications using longitudinal data collected in 2004 and 2008 from 7,127 smallholder maize fields. The Instrumented Pooled Correlated Random Effects estimator is employed to control for several statistical considerations often overlooked in the social science literature on smallholder production. The model is specified such that response rates to fertilizer application are conditional on certain farmer practices and the agro-ecological conditions under which maize is grown. Findings indicate top dressing is more effective than basal fertilizer on Zambian soils with average response rates of 4.2 kg/kg and 3.0 kg/kg respectively. This however masks a wide range of variability in fertilizer's effectiveness. Top dressing response rates, for example, can be nearly 50% lower on coarse, sandy soils and on plowed fields where the majority of the topsoil is disturbed. Basal fertilizer is vulnerable to nutrient "lockup" in the acidic soils that prevail throughout Zambia. Average marginal yield response to basal fertilizer is just 2.1 kg/kg on the highly acidic soils where 51% of our sample fields are located. On semi-neutral soils, response rates can more than triple up to 7.6 kg/kg on average. Unfortunately, only 2% of our sample (and a similar proportion of all Zambian maize fields) are in areas where semi-neutral soils prevail. Given transportation costs and average products, this study demonstrates that fertilizer use is unprofitable for most Zambian farmers at commercial prices, which has important implications for the long-run viability of subsidy programs. Specifically, if fertilizer is unprofitable for farmers commercially, there is no possibility for a successful "phase out" of a subsidy program after which farmers would continue to use commercial fertilizer. Chapter 2 addresses issues pertaining to marketing and trade policies. Expensive interventionist grain marketing and trade policies in many Southern African countries are frequently born from uncertainty regarding potential private sector performance. These policies have limited the activity of the private sector, which perpetuates the uncertainty over its potential performance. Indeed, many studies conclude that grain markets in Southern Africa are not integrated with each other and other world markets at least partially due to government policies and the transfer costs they impose.This study employs the price transmission model introduced by Myers and Jayne (forthcoming) using data from various sources to determine whether long-run spatial price equilibriums exist, and to measure the speed at which price shocks are transmitted. The key innovation in this research is the focus on markets that are connected through informal trade across international borders, specifically focusing on a pair of markets in Zambia and The Democratic Republic of Congo and a pair of markets in Malawi and Mozambique.In short, this study shows that when we examine the price relationship between markets that are relatively unimpeded by interventionist trade policies and when we control, to the extent possible, for transfer costs, markets in the Southern Africa region will likely perform in accordance with economic theory; a long-run price equilibrium will exist, arbitrage will apparently be carried out competitively, and price transmission is going to be fairly rapid.
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Title: The impact of bt crops on aflatoxin reduction
Creator: Yu, Jina
Date: 2019
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: This dissertation is about how adoption of a genetically engineered plant works as a prevention method for aflatoxin, a carcinogen that commonly contaminates food crops such as corn and peanuts interacting with climate condition. First produced in the United States in 1996, Bt corn has become one of the most commonly grown transgenic crops worldwide. Aside from improving corn growers' yields, it has also resulted in an 11% decrease in insecticide use on US corn. Multiple experimental studies...
Show moreThis dissertation is about how adoption of a genetically engineered plant works as a prevention method for aflatoxin, a carcinogen that commonly contaminates food crops such as corn and peanuts interacting with climate condition. First produced in the United States in 1996, Bt corn has become one of the most commonly grown transgenic crops worldwide. Aside from improving corn growers' yields, it has also resulted in an 11% decrease in insecticide use on US corn. Multiple experimental studies found that the level of aflatoxin, a fungal toxin, can be mitigated by reducing the presence of insects because fungi colonize corn through kernel wounds from insect feeding. However, the relationship between Bt corn and aflatoxin has yet to be examined in field settings, wherein many environmental factors are at play. Given the higher environmental risks of temperature and drought, revealing the mechanism by which Bt corn reduces aflatoxin can inform farmers' decision-making on crop choices and seed choices.In the first essay, I developed a regression model that estimates causal relationships between aflatoxin-related insurance claims and Bt corn adoption rates, drought index, and climatic variables. From 2001-2016, a significant inverse correlation existed between Bt corn planting and aflatoxin-related insurance claims in the United States when controlling for temperature, drought, state, and year. Estimated benefits of Bt corn's aflatoxin reduction were about $120 million to $229 million per year in over 16 states on average. These results suggest that Bt corn is an important strategy with corresponding economic benefits for reducing aflatoxin risk in the United States. Climate change-typically increased temperature-may expand prevalence zones for aflatoxin because warm temperatures and dry conditions are associated with aflatoxin accumulation. The second essay's objectives were to predict both areas with high aflatoxin risks in 2031-2040 based on 16 climate models, as well as the extent of aflatoxin-related economic loss due climate change. To do so, growing season impacts on aflatoxin risk were modeled by allowing for the adjustment of planting season under different climate scenarios. It was found that more than 89% of corn planting areas are likely to experience increased aflatoxin risks in 2031-2040 when compared to aflatoxin risks from 2007-2016 in the United States. Ignoring health-related costs, aflatoxin-related economic loss was expected to amount to $36 million - $70 million per year.In the third essay, I examined an additional potential benefit of Bt crops (corn and cotton): a decrease in the incidence of aflatoxin in peanuts (non-Bt crops). Bt crops can help reduce aflatoxin levels by reducing insect damage, a key path of fungal infection. However, the effect of Bt crops should not be limited to the adopted crops, because insects controlled by Bt have a relationship with other crops and insects in the broader ecosystem. Furthermore, the sales of aflatoxin-contaminated peanuts are currently under regulation. As such, the negative relationship between Bt and aflatoxin in peanuts means that Bt crops can also provide a meaningful, unintended economic benefit to peanut farmers by reducing aflatoxin. In addition to the Bt crops, temperature and drought at key stages of peanut growth were included as potential confounding factors in aflatoxin-related insurance claims. The results indicate that a county with a higher Bt crops adoption rate was less likely to have aflatoxin-related insurance claims in peanuts. This means that, by reducing the incidence of aflatoxin, Bt crops adoption in the United States has saved losses of $0.45 million per year. Overall, my dissertation study increases current understandings of the unintended effects of Bt in protecting crops from aflatoxin damage in the broader ecosystem. It aims to shed light on the benefits of Bt crops in countries that suffer from aflatoxin-related damage and transgenic seed traits that are not planted. Additionally, this study contributes to improved knowledge about climate conditions that affect either aflatoxin levels or host plants (corn and peanut). As climate change is expected to increase temperature and dryness, it is likely to increase the risk of aflatoxin in the US. Bt crops and new biotechnology are thus expected to play an important role in protecting crops from aflatoxin damage.
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Title: A cross-country analysis of fertilizer use profitability in Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi
Creator: Collier, Erin
Date: 2016
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: "Maize production intensification is becoming increasingly important to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fertilizer is an essential part of that process but continues to be underutilized by farmers across SSA and many claim is unprofitable. In order to determine how accurate the widely held perception that fertilizer use is not profitable is, and to what extent profitability is present among farmers who use fertilizer, this research analyses fertilizer use profitability trends in...
Show more"Maize production intensification is becoming increasingly important to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Fertilizer is an essential part of that process but continues to be underutilized by farmers across SSA and many claim is unprofitable. In order to determine how accurate the widely held perception that fertilizer use is not profitable is, and to what extent profitability is present among farmers who use fertilizer, this research analyses fertilizer use profitability trends in Kenya, Zambia, and Malawi." -- Abstract.
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Title: Climatology of springtime freeze events in the Great Lakes Region and their impact on sour cherry yields in historical and projected future time frames
Creator: Rill, Lydia
Date: 2016
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: "Production of sour cherries has a significant impact on the economy of the Great Lakes Region, valued at more than $74 million. In contrast to cereal crops where water is the most limiting factor, perennials in temperate regions are limited by freeze injury, especially in the spring following initial phenological development, which was highlighted in 2002 and 2012 when yields decreased considerably. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of springtime freeze events in the...
Show more"Production of sour cherries has a significant impact on the economy of the Great Lakes Region, valued at more than $74 million. In contrast to cereal crops where water is the most limiting factor, perennials in temperate regions are limited by freeze injury, especially in the spring following initial phenological development, which was highlighted in 2002 and 2012 when yields decreased considerably. This study analyzed the spatial and temporal variability of springtime freeze events in the Great Lakes Region and their impact on sour cherry production, as well as explored the use of gridded climatic datasets. Additionally, this study examined the historical trends in sour cherry yield and potential future changes by the mid-century. The Great Lakes played a major role in the spatial variability of springtime freezes, as locations inland experienced colder temperatures than near the coast. Simulated damaging freeze events over the past 50 years were most common during the later phenological stages of the crop, while the most severe damage occurred in the earlier stages. Gridded datasets were less suitable for this application than individual station observations. Over time, phenological development has tended to begin earlier, and this trend was projected to continue into the mid-century at three stations located in northwest, west central, and southwest Lower Michigan. An ensemble of climate projections indicated a large uncertainty envelope surrounding changes in simulated sour cherry yield. The projected changes varied by emissions scenario, downscaling method, and climate model."--Page ii.
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Title: Managing biological and linked pollutants
Creator: Reeling, Carson Jon
Date: 2015
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: "This dissertation contains three chapters, each of which examine the management of environmental pollutants."--from abstract.

Title: Household-level impacts of fertilizer subsidies in Malawi
Creator: Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob
Date: 2011
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: Chapter 1 uses a double-hurdle model with panel data from Malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer. The paper controls for potential endogeneity caused by the non-random targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients. Results show that on average one additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0.22 kilograms of commercial fertilizer, but crowding out ranges from 0.18 among the poorest farmers to 0.30 among relatively non-poor...
Show moreChapter 1 uses a double-hurdle model with panel data from Malawi to investigate how fertilizer subsidies affect farmer demand for commercial fertilizer. The paper controls for potential endogeneity caused by the non-random targeting of fertilizer subsidy recipients. Results show that on average one additional kilogram of subsidized fertilizer crowds out 0.22 kilograms of commercial fertilizer, but crowding out ranges from 0.18 among the poorest farmers to 0.30 among relatively non-poor farmers. This indicates that targeting fertilizer subsidies to the rural poor is likely to maximize the contribution of the subsidy program to total fertilizer use.Chapter 2 uses three waves of panel data in Malawi to address how fertilizer subsidies affect the agricultural labor market in Malawi. This article directly estimates how the subsidy program affects agricultural labor supply, labor demand, and median community-level wage rates, none of which have been well quantified to this point. Results from this study indicate that subsidized fertilizer has a significant negative effect on the amount of off-farm agricultural labor that recipient households supply. The average participant in the subsidy program reduces the number of days of off-farm agricultural labor supplied by 9.6% across the sample. This finding indicates that subsidy recipients may move back towards own farm production. The supply-side effect of the subsidy program is small however, as the average household that acquires subsidized fertilizer only reduces off-farm labor supply by 2.5 days on average. Therefore, the reduction in labor supply from the subsidy likely has a limited effect on household income. Fertilizer subsidies do not have a significant effect on demand for hired-in labor. This result provides some evidence that the subsidy program could have off-setting effects on the demand side, as increased demand for hired-in labor caused by boosts in production could be offset by a decrease in demand for labor as the subsidy decreases fertilizer price relative to labor price. Finally, a one kilogram increase in the average amount of subsidized fertilizer acquired per household in a community boosts median off-farm wage rate by 0.2%, but an increase of one standard deviation of subsidized fertilizer per household in a community reduces wage rate by 0.1%. This finding indicates that while greater average quantities of subsidized fertilizer in a community boost wage rates, the more unevenly that the fertilizer is distributed, the less of a positive impact it has on wage rates. The increase in median wage is mainly due to contraction of agricultural labor supply. It also provides some evidence that households who do not receive subsidized fertilizer may benefit indirectly through a slight increase in agricultural wage rates. Chapter 3 uses panel data from Malawi to measure how receiving subsidized fertilizer in the current year and in previous years affects several different measures of household well-being. Our model accounts for potential endogeneity of subsidized fertilizer due to the non-random way in which it is distributed to recipients. Results indicate that receiving subsidized fertilizer in a given year raises maize and tobacco production as well as the net value of rainy-season crop production in that year. Receipt of subsidized fertilizer over the prior three seasons also has a significant positive effect on current year maize production. However, receipt of subsidized fertilizer in the prior three consecutive years has no discernable effect on the net-value of total crop production in the current year. Moreover, we find no evidence that prior or current receipt of subsidized fertilizer contributes to off-farm or total household income. Lastly, we find no significant evidence that receiving subsidized fertilizer raises farmers' livestock and durable asset wealth. Potential general equilibrium benefits resulting from the subsidy program cannot be discounted, but the direct comparison of recipient and non-recipient households indicates that enduring effects of the subsidy beyond the year of receipt apply to maize production only and not to overall household income or asset wealth.
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Title: Benchmarking farm financial performance : stability and management implications
Creator: Braun, Carolyn Marie
Date: 2014
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: BENCHMARKING FARM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: STABILITY AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONSBy: Carolyn Marie BraunThe primary research question of this study was, "how many years are of data are needed to be reasonably sure that farms are ranked correctly?" The data were obtained from the Michigan Dairy and Crop Farm Business Summaries. First, the stability across farms was examined to determine if farms consistently rank in the top or bottom third. Asset driven measures (ATO, DTA, CR) were less variable...
Show moreBENCHMARKING FARM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: STABILITY AND MANAGEMENT IMPLICATIONSBy: Carolyn Marie BraunThe primary research question of this study was, "how many years are of data are needed to be reasonably sure that farms are ranked correctly?" The data were obtained from the Michigan Dairy and Crop Farm Business Summaries. First, the stability across farms was examined to determine if farms consistently rank in the top or bottom third. Asset driven measures (ATO, DTA, CR) were less variable than income and profitability measures (NFI, ROA, OPMR). Then, farms were ranked according to their five-year average for each financial measure to test if there was a significant difference between the top and bottom third. The results revealed that there was a significant difference between the top and bottom thirds for every financial measure for both the dairy and crop farms. The farms were then organized into thirds using their five-year average ROA and the differences between the most profitable and least profitable farms were examined. Farms in the top third tended to have a significantly higher ATO, OPMR, and NFI than the farms in the bottom third for ROA. Next, the number of years of data needed to rank farms into thirds with a high degree of accuracy was estimated. This was accomplished by estimating the farm's true, long-run performance and calculating how many years it took to be reasonably confident that the farm was ranked in the correct third. The number of years that were ideal to use depended on which variable the farmer is looking at and the level of accuracy they desire.
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Title: Analysis of fertilizer profitability and use in Kenya
Creator: Sheahan, Megan Britney
Date: 2011
Collection: Electronic Theses & Dissertations
Description: Despite upward trends in fertilizer use on maize fields in Kenya over the past twenty years, it is still widely viewed that fertilizer use is not expanding quickly enough and that application rates are not high enough to meet national food security and agricultural development goals. This thesis takes a critical look at the profitability and use of fertilizer with respect to maize in Kenya using five waves of household level panel data across thirteen years. I estimate a maize yield response...
Show moreDespite upward trends in fertilizer use on maize fields in Kenya over the past twenty years, it is still widely viewed that fertilizer use is not expanding quickly enough and that application rates are not high enough to meet national food security and agricultural development goals. This thesis takes a critical look at the profitability and use of fertilizer with respect to maize in Kenya using five waves of household level panel data across thirteen years. I estimate a maize yield response model at the field level to ascertain district and soil group level fertilizer response rates by year, then use these estimates to calculate marginal and average value cost ratios under a number of household specific relative price scenarios including consideration of the transport cost of fertilizer and both the buying and selling prices of maize. I compare these profitability metrics and calculated optimal fertilizer application rates to actual fertilizer use values to learn that households in the highest potential areas are using fertilizer at or beyond the most profitable levels while households in the more marginal lowlands areas have steadily approached optimal use levels, with a small gap remaining in 2010. While fertilizer use could be expanded in the lowlands areas, lower application rates might be the most profitable strategy in other areas. When limiting my sample to only areas where fertilizer use is profitable, I estimate a probit model to determine the factors associated with not using commercial fertilizer on maize fields. I find that long distances to the nearest fertilizer seller and relatively adverse nitrogen to maize price ratios are the major deterrents to fertilizer use where otherwise profitable.
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