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- Title
- When ethnic exclusion is good politics : ethnic exclusion, armed conflict, and leadership tenure in small-coalition systems
- Creator
- Choi, Hyun Jin
- Date
- 2012
- Collection
- Electronic Theses & Dissertations
- Description
-
Why do some leaders deliberately foster ethnic hatred and exclusion even though such a policy increases the risk of ethnic conflict? Contrary to common belief, I find that ethnic exclusion is good politics (but not good policy) for non-democratic leaders with small winning coalitions, despite its positive impact on the risk of ethnic conflict. To explain this mechanism, I modify the selectorate theory of Bueno de Mesquita, et al. (2003) by explicitly accounting for the role of ethnic ties in...
Show moreWhy do some leaders deliberately foster ethnic hatred and exclusion even though such a policy increases the risk of ethnic conflict? Contrary to common belief, I find that ethnic exclusion is good politics (but not good policy) for non-democratic leaders with small winning coalitions, despite its positive impact on the risk of ethnic conflict. To explain this mechanism, I modify the selectorate theory of Bueno de Mesquita, et al. (2003) by explicitly accounting for the role of ethnic ties in the formation of the incumbent's coalition. Four hypotheses are deduced from my theory for explaining ethnic exclusion and leader survival. H1 maintains that, in small-coalition systems, leaders who employ ethnic exclusion are more likely to survive longer in office than those who do not employ it. H2 predicts that, if small-coalition leaders do not pursue an exclusive ethnic policy, they are more likely to be removed from office in an irregular manner. H3 suggests that small-coalition leaders are less likely to lose power during civil war if they employ ethnic exclusion. Lastly, if ethnic exclusion really is good politics for small-coalition leaders, H4 predicts, there should be higher levels of ethnic exclusion in small-coalition systems than in large-coalition systems. These hypotheses are empirically tested and supported by Cox's proportional hazard regressions using data on the tenures of 982 leaders from 1946 to 2004. My results show that in small-coalition systems: (1) the hazard of deposition for leaders who implement a strong exclusion policy is about 80% lower than that of leaders who do not promote ethnic exclusion; (2) the risk of irregular turnover among leaders who employ ethnic exclusion is only about 1.3% of the risk for those who do not employ such a policy; and (3) the risk of irregular removal from office virtually disappears even in times of civil war if a leader employs a strong exclusion policy. Case studies of Iraq, Burundi, and Rwanda further corroborate causal claims made by the exclusion theory. In all three cases, major ethnic groups had been excluded from participation in the incumbent's coalition until a small group of ethnic elites monopolizes key positions in the army and government. The cases of Burundi and Rwanda further demonstrate how small-coalition systems face large-scale violence when inclusive ethnic policy is implemented after years of exclusive rule. Overall, my findings lead to an "unwelcome" conclusion: ethnic exclusion is good politics in small-coalition systems even if it could increase the risk of ethnic conflict. This conclusion suggests that the crucial element in the prevention and resolution of ethnic conflict is the development of policies that can address leaders' incentives for ethnic exclusion.
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- Title
- Ethnic representation and stability in sub-Saharan African governments : a multiple regression study of 45 countries
- Creator
- Puffer, Phyllis A.
- Date
- 1997
- Collection
- Electronic Theses & Dissertations
- Title
- Violence, ethnicity and political consolidation in South Sudan : a history of the Dinka and their relations with their neighbors
- Creator
- Beswick, Stephanie F.
- Date
- 1998
- Collection
- Electronic Theses & Dissertations
- Title
- Ethnic federalism, fiscal reform, development and democracy in Ethiopia
- Creator
- Keller, Edmond J. (Edmond Joseph), 1942-
- Date
- 2002-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
-
Ethiopia has embarked upon what it claims to be a novel experiment in "ethnic federalism". The ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front has asserted that it is intent on forthrightly addressing the claims of ethnic groups in the country of historic discrimination and inequality, and to build a multi-ethnic democracy. The essay critically assesses this effort, concentrating on the emerging relations between the federal and regional state governments. Particular attentionis...
Show moreEthiopia has embarked upon what it claims to be a novel experiment in "ethnic federalism". The ruling Ethiopian Peoples' Revolutionary Democratic Front has asserted that it is intent on forthrightly addressing the claims of ethnic groups in the country of historic discrimination and inequality, and to build a multi-ethnic democracy. The essay critically assesses this effort, concentrating on the emerging relations between the federal and regional state governments. Particular attentionis given to the strategy of revenue sharing as a mechanism for addressing regional inequities. Where appropriate, comparisons are made with the federal system in Nigeria, Africa's most well-known federal system. The article concludes that, while there may be federal features and institutions normally found in democracies, Ethiopia has not constructed a system of democratic federalism. Moreover, rather than empowering citizens at the grassroots level, Ethiopia tightly controls development and politics through regional state governments, with very little popular decision making in the development process.
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- Title
- Public service accountability and governance in Kenya since independence
- Creator
- Odhiambo-Mbai, C.
- Date
- 2003-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
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Bad governance is a major contributor to poor service delivery in Africa. In Kenya, the level of accountability in the management of public affairs has consistently declined since independence. This is in spite of various legal instruments and watchdog institutions established to regulate and monitor the ethical conduct of public officials. This paper argues that the pattern of consolidation of power embarked upon by Kenya's post-colonial rulers was a major underlying factor in the...
Show moreBad governance is a major contributor to poor service delivery in Africa. In Kenya, the level of accountability in the management of public affairs has consistently declined since independence. This is in spite of various legal instruments and watchdog institutions established to regulate and monitor the ethical conduct of public officials. This paper argues that the pattern of consolidation of power embarked upon by Kenya's post-colonial rulers was a major underlying factor in the deterioration of ethical standards in the public service. The construction of patron-clientilist relations were quite pronounced in this regard. The same goes for the deliberate manipulation of ethnicity. The paper concludes by advocating the adoption of a number of measures in order to enhance accountability in the public service of Kenya.
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- Title
- Patrimonialism and military regimes in Nigeria
- Creator
- Ikpe, Ukana B.
- Date
- 2000-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
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Military regimes in Nigeria exhibit patrimonial characteristics such as personal rule, absence of separation between the public and private realms, patron-client administrative networks, veneration of the ruler, massive corruption, ethnic/sectional-based support, and repression of opposition and violation of human rights. Most of the dangers posed by military rule to democracy is not really because of its intrinsic authoritarian posture, although it is the most perceptible. It is the...
Show moreMilitary regimes in Nigeria exhibit patrimonial characteristics such as personal rule, absence of separation between the public and private realms, patron-client administrative networks, veneration of the ruler, massive corruption, ethnic/sectional-based support, and repression of opposition and violation of human rights. Most of the dangers posed by military rule to democracy is not really because of its intrinsic authoritarian posture, although it is the most perceptible. It is the patrimonial tendency in military rule that creates the most transcendent and pernicious effect on democracy because of unconcealed ethnic/sectional alignment of regimes. This generates inter-ethnic acrimony and rivalry, in effect, delegitimizes the state and state power, and consequently, engenders a hostile environment to the growth of democracy.
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- Title
- Ethnicity and transition to democracy in Nigeria : explaining the passing of authoritarian rule in a multi-ethnic society
- Creator
- Ibeanu, Okechukwu
- Date
- 2000-12
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
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This essay addresses an important variable in Nigerian politics, namely, ethnicity and the ways in which it affects the conduct of national affairs. It represents an effort at theorizing the role and place of ethnicity in the transition from authoritarianism in a multi-ethnic setting such as that represented by Nigeria. Drawing on historical evidence on the ways in which ethnicity was constructed in colonial and post-colonial Nigeria as well as the wide literature on the subject, an attempt...
Show moreThis essay addresses an important variable in Nigerian politics, namely, ethnicity and the ways in which it affects the conduct of national affairs. It represents an effort at theorizing the role and place of ethnicity in the transition from authoritarianism in a multi-ethnic setting such as that represented by Nigeria. Drawing on historical evidence on the ways in which ethnicity was constructed in colonial and post-colonial Nigeria as well as the wide literature on the subject, an attempt is made to demonstrate the centrality of the variable to Nigerian politics but without suggestion that it is the sole or most important determinant of political outcomes. Indeed, it is argued that there are other important variables, such as class, which not only affect the political process but also impinge on ethnicity. The ways in which ethnicity influences the different phases of the transition from authoritarianism are discussed drawing on the Nigerian experience.
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- Title
- La dimension ethnique dans la dynamique socio-politique du Bénin du Renouveau Démocratique
- Creator
- Amoussou-Yéyé, Dénis
- Date
- 1999-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Title
- Ethnicité et multipartisme au Nord-Cameroun
- Creator
- Mouiche, Ibrahim
- Date
- 2000-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
-
Le «Nord-Cameroun» renvoie au départ a une entité administrative pluriethnique, mais ce pluralisme sera transcendé par le régime du Président Ahidjo, pour constituer sa région natale en un bloc quasi-monolithique,véritable base-arrière politique à travers une action régionalisante. Néanmoins, cette action régionalisante, dans la mesure où elle reposait sur I 'hégémonie peul-musulmane sur les Kirdi (populations païennes), des Kotoko sur les Arabes choa (pourtant appartenant tous à la Umma), ne...
Show moreLe «Nord-Cameroun» renvoie au départ a une entité administrative pluriethnique, mais ce pluralisme sera transcendé par le régime du Président Ahidjo, pour constituer sa région natale en un bloc quasi-monolithique,véritable base-arrière politique à travers une action régionalisante. Néanmoins, cette action régionalisante, dans la mesure où elle reposait sur I 'hégémonie peul-musulmane sur les Kirdi (populations païennes), des Kotoko sur les Arabes choa (pourtant appartenant tous à la Umma), ne s'était pas opérée dans le sens d'une bonne gestion de l'ethnicité qui aurait pu prendre en compte les véritables intérêts des populations locales en privilégiant les solidarités et les complémentarités. La démission du Président Ahidjo et l'avènement de M. Biya en 1982 ont déterminé de mutations profondes au niveau de la superstructure dont l'impact sur les différentes composantes du Nord-Cameroun a été évident. Surtout, a l'ancien «projet hégémonique peul-musulman», Biya va opposer un «contre projet kirdi» en émancipant ces derniers. Et avec le retour au multipartisme au Cameroun en 1990, le Nord va être soumis à un retournement dans la gestion de l'ethnicité, les élites des différentes communautés tentant de trouver une nouvelle rationalité, de définir des objectifs et d'appréicier l'ensemble des ressources leur permettant de bénéficier avantageusement de la rente politique et de se positionner stratégiquement au niveau local et national. Cette étude qui est une sociologie électorale du Nord-Cameroun est articulée sur deux parties: d'une part, nous nous efforçons de montrer comment l'instrumentalisation de l'ethnicité dans la vie politique du Nord-Cameroun trouve son historicité dans la consécration précoloniale, coloniale et postcoloniale de l'hégémonie musulmane (sous la houlette de l'ethnie peul) sur les Kirdi et des Kotoko sur les Arabes. D'autre part, il est question des regroupements politiques et des facteurs qui déterminent le comportement électoral des populations du Nord-Cameroun en rapport avec l'ethnicité. Ce que l'on peut retenir, est que la crise économique rampante et la crise de la succession présidentielle de 1982, couplée de la politisation de l'ethnicité et de la démocratisation autoritaire du régime du Président Biya, a conduit à la bipolarisation de la vie politique de cette région mais aussi et surtout à la perturbation de ses tendances électorales. Ainsi, alors que le Nord était considéré comme le fief du parti de l'UNDP du Peul Bouba Bello Maïgari, chaque consultation électorate voit son électorat se «volatiser» au profit du RDPC du Président Biya, lequel est en passe de devenir un parti dominant dans cette région du pays. Le MDR, petit parti «tribunitien» toupouri localisé dans les zones toupouri de l'Extrême-Nord a subi le même sort pour perdre son rôle tribunitien. Tous ces facteurs de perturbations posent le problème de la création des conditions politiques, économiques, sociales et culturelles, d'un ancrage profond et irréversible de la démocratie.
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- Title
- Regional polarisation in voting pattern : Malawi's 1994 elections
- Creator
- Kalipeni, Ezekiel, 1954-l
- Date
- 1997-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
-
This paper briefly examines the unprecedented political events in Malawi that began in March 1992 and culminated in multi-party elections in which Dr. Banda's regime yielded the reigns of power to a democratically elected government. Using detailed results of the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections, the paper argues that regionalism rather than ethnicity appears to be the dominant factor influencing voting patterns at the national level. Regionalism appears to have resulted in the...
Show moreThis paper briefly examines the unprecedented political events in Malawi that began in March 1992 and culminated in multi-party elections in which Dr. Banda's regime yielded the reigns of power to a democratically elected government. Using detailed results of the 1994 presidential and parliamentary elections, the paper argues that regionalism rather than ethnicity appears to be the dominant factor influencing voting patterns at the national level. Regionalism appears to have resulted in the formation of three super ethnic groups each with its own regional base. Elites are securing political power by redefining the ethnic equation; and their competition for scarce resources and political power continues to occur in the guise of spatial units, among which the super ethnic region is the more salient, and has consequently become the most influential factor in elections.
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- Title
- Ethnicity In the electoral process : the 1992 general elections in Kenya
- Creator
- Oyugi, W. Ouma
- Date
- 1997-06
- Collection
- African Journal of Political Science
- Description
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The primary concern of this essay is to explain the nature of the 'transaction' between electoral politics and tribalism, especially with reference to the multiparty elections of 1992. It argues that the politics of the 1992 general elections show how ethnicity continues to be a major force influencing the behaviour of politicians and voters alike. What is more, where power and wealth were at stake, ethnic relations became conflictual. The elections also manifested how the elites can mobilise...
Show moreThe primary concern of this essay is to explain the nature of the 'transaction' between electoral politics and tribalism, especially with reference to the multiparty elections of 1992. It argues that the politics of the 1992 general elections show how ethnicity continues to be a major force influencing the behaviour of politicians and voters alike. What is more, where power and wealth were at stake, ethnic relations became conflictual. The elections also manifested how the elites can mobilise ethnic passions to defend and or promote what is otherwise their narrow sectional interests. The masses followed their leaders because of the lingering belief that only "one of your own" can best serve communal interest if placed in a position of power. But it was also clear that ethnic ideology has its limitations. Intra-ethnic divisions were manifest where narrow sectional interests came into play. The emergence of splinter parties led by members of the same ethnic group was the inevitable consequence of such contradictions.
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- Title
- Electoral rules, ethnic politics, and political party development in new democracies : the cases of Estonia, Latvia, and Czechoslovakia
- Creator
- Ishiyama, John Toaru
- Date
- 1992
- Collection
- Electronic Theses & Dissertations