Population and Family Planning in theEconomic Development of RhodesiaD. ClarkeDepartment of Economics, University of Rhodesia, Salisbury.The effects of population growth on economicdevelopment are hotly debated by rival schools ofeconomists, and with the notable exception ofColin Clark,1 there are basically two camps. First-ly, the Marxist School believes that the problemsof the less developed countries can be solved bysocio-economic development alone; development,they claim, will outstrip population growth pro-vided that the society is not handicapped by theshackles of capitalism.2 The second school, en-compassing most Western economists, believes thattoo rapid population growth can retard develop-ment independently of the social order. Theauthoritative conclusions of the Pearson Commis-sion reinforce the case for substantial action as anecessary prerequisite for development in the Jessdeveloped countries: 'No other phenomenoncasts a darker shadow over the prospects forinternational development than the staggeringgrowth of population.'3The Commission's Report cited six 'direct diffi-culties' created by rapid population growth. First-ly, high expenditures are required for education,public health and social services, and these createbudgetary strains. Secondly, the quality of thenext generation, on which the prospects ofdevelopment rest, is jeopardized. Thirdly, the'burden of dependency' is increased and levels ofcapital formation retarded. Fourthly, aid require-ments increase ahead of available supply. Fifthly,income distribution becomes more inequalitarian,accentuating dualism, and allowing only relativelyfew people to share in the fruits of development.Finally, severe urban conditions result and short-ages of social products are the outcome.4 Thusthe Commission's major recommendation is that,'Developing countries should identify their popu-lation problem if they have not already done so,recognize the relevance of population growth totheir social and economic planning, and adoptappropriate programs.'5This paper is an attempt to place the populationproblem of Rhodesia in perspective in the light ofthis clearly reasoned advice. The questions to beanswered are whether the 'direct difficulties' canbe identified and their severity calculated, whetherpresent population policy is the right solution andwhat alternatives there are.REGIONAL CONTEXTThe annual rate of growth of the world popu-lation between 1963 and 1968 is put at 1,9 per centbut for Continental Africa it is 2,4 per cent, thatis about 26 per cent above the world average; andfor 1970-1980 it will be considerably greater.6Birth rates throughout the continent are still highand the relatively close movement of falling birthrates behind falling death rates that characterisedthe development of Western European countriesin the nineteenth century cannot be expected tooccur in Africa in the immediate future. Broadaggregates do, however, tend to obscure wide vari-ances in individual countries. A rudimentarystatistical analysis of selected African countries,south of the Sahara, together with the extent oftheir family planning programmes, portrays thebare outlines of the current situation.711Table IPOPULATION AND FAMILY PLANNING IN SELECTED COUNTRIES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICACountrySouth AfricaRhodesiaMozambiqueZambiaMalawiLesothoBotswanaS.W.A.AngolaTanzaniaCongo (Dem. Rep.)Congo (Brazz.)Populations196819 263 0005 020 0007 237 0004 079 0004 324 0001 018 000600 000611 0005 360 00012 578 00016 648 000912 000Average AnnualPercentage Growth1963-672,43,41,23,12,52,93.01,81,42,92 21,4Deathsper 1 000196714Š19,6Š23ŠŠ252024Extent of Family PlanningExists: limited supportExists: voluntary associationNo organized activityGovernment neutral and passiveGovernment hostileGovernment lukewarmGovernment committed in principleNo organized activityNo organized activityGovernment committedNo organized activityNo organized activitySource: INTERNATIONAL PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERATION 1969 Family Planning on Five Continents,London, pp. 3-9. All figures are national figures.It does seem, therefore, to be the relativelymore economically advanced states that havefamily planning programmes, though the scope ofmany of these leaves much to be desired. The firstGovernment sponsored programme was institutedin Kenya in 1965, but despite this breakthrough,official backing for family planning in mostcountries of the Southern Continent has not beeneasily obtained.An evaluation of the causal factors responsiblefor the low rates of natural increase in manyAfrican countries shows clearly that the conditionis the result of high death rates, not low birthrates, and as a consequence the real populationexplosion is yet to be experienced. In otherAfrican countries death rates per thousand areeven higher than those in Table I;8 and whenmodern medical science reaches these backwardareas and brings down mortality levels nearer tothose of advanced countries, then there can bebut one unavoidable consequence: continued up-ward trends in population growth throughout thecontinent.9THE RHODESIAN PROBLEMThe Rhodesian economy exhibits virtually allthe major characteristics of dualism that are sowell known in the literature on economic develop-ment;10 and nearly all available economic data,quantitative or qualitative, illustrates this dualism,especially in the sphere of population.The population problem is found principally inthe African community, which constitutes 95 percent of the total population; but it must not beinferred that policy should neglect the European,Asian and Coloured communities11 for there is afrequent assertion by white Rhodesians that theexpansion of the European population by an in-crease in the birth rate would be economicallyadvantageous to the whole community. Yet whenexamined on economic grounds this suppositionis seen to be extremely weak. If the 'inherited'abilities of man are a common factor, unalterablein the short run, and for all practical purposes aconstant, then any 'acquired' abilities that arelikely to influence the quality of the 'humancapital' dement of the total wealth component,will be functionally dependent upon the existenceand distribution of factors such as education, pub-lic health, nutritional intake, housing and socialwelfare.On this basis Rhodesia must be regarded asbeing adequately endowed, in both stock andflow relationships, with the quantitative elementsof human resources required for economic growth.Lacking in abundance is the present stock andfuture flow of the qualitative aspects of 'humancapital'.12 Any measure designed to increase(European) birth rates13 in this situation wouldexert additional pressure on already scarce invest-ment resources and thereby increase the percapita resource contribution that would have tobe made in non-productive 'demographic invest-ments'. In real terms there is no demographicproblem amongst the European population group.The rate of natural increase has declined sharplysince 1954 when it was 2,0 per cent per annumand in 1968 stood close to levels experienced in12economically advanced countries at 1,0 per centper annum. This 50 per cent decline in the rate ofnatural increase in a period of fifteen years isdue to a fall in the birth rate from 27 per 1 000in 1954 to 16 in 1968, while death rates haveremained relatively constant throughout the periodat 6-7 per 1 000. Because of the small absolutesize of the European, Asian and Coloured popu-lation groups1* they will be disregarded for the restof this paper. Recorded changes in the Africanpopulation are reflected in the summary ofchanges in rates of growth as shown in Table II.YearTable URATE OF GROWTH OF THE RHODESIAN AFRICAN POPULATIONPercentage changePercentage change in birth in death raterate between dates of between dates ofBirths per I 000 estimation Deaths per I 000 estimationNatural increaseper cent perannum19481954196246,244,848,0Ł3,03-7,1418,114,414,0- 20,40- 2,772,813,043,40Sources:(a) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1951 Report on the Demographic Sample Survey of the African Population of South-ern Rhodesia. Salisbury, Central African Statistical Office, f. 8, Table IV.(b) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1959 The 1953-1955 Demographic Sample Survey of the Indigenous African Populationof Southern Rhodesia. Salisbury, Central African Statistical Office, p. 8, Table 4.(c) SOUTHERN RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962 Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia.Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 8.Although the comprehensive analysis of the 1969census has not yet been released it appears thatthe annual rate of natural increase of the Africanpopulation is 3,6 per cent..15 Consequently, therate of growth of Rhodesia's African populationis approximately 41 per cent above the Africancontinental average and 100 per cent above theworld average. At this rate of increase, the Africanpopulation will total approximately 13,6 million atthe turn of the century and some 19 million bythe year 2010 (see Table VIT).Net increases and aggregates alone concealmany other significant demographic features whichcan either aggravate the economic problem ormitigate its seriousness: age structure, fertilityrates, gross and net reproductive rates, populationdensities, urban-rural composition, sex balance,factors affecting fecundity, life expectation andmigration patterns. An outline survey of nationalincome per capita in Table III depicts the effectof population growth on the long-term trend overthe period 1959-68.The inference from Table III is that there hasbeen a decline in the average standard of livingin real terms since 1959. In practice the real in-come of different population groups is influencedby other factors such as initial income distribu-tion, differential rates of population increase andthe pattern of economic growth. At this junctureit will be useful to dis-aggregate the economicstructure into three components: the 'high in-Table IIIRHODESIAN NATIONAL INCOME PER CAPITA19594968 (Rh. S)G.D.P. G.N.I. G.N.I.(Factor Cost) Constant ConstantYear Current Prices 1954 Prices 1965 Prices1959196019611962196319641965196619671968151,4155,4159,0156,4156,6160,2167.2158,0164,8167,0132,2133,6133.6128/t125,4125,0129,0ŠŠŠŠŠŠŠŠ172,8159,8162,8161.0Source: RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balanceof Payments of Rhodesia 1968. Salisbury, Central Statis-tical Office, p. 2, Table 3.come' European, Asian and Coloured community,mainly urban in character, and exclusively orient-ated towards the modern sector of the economy,16the 'medium income' African population in wageemployment in the Money Economy, and the 'Jowincome' rural based African population in theTribal Trust Lands and Purchase Areas who com-prise the Indigenous Economy17 or African RuralHousehold sector. An examination in Table IV ofthe past record of employment creation in the'high' and 'medium' income groups indicates thestructural nature of the problems engendered byrapid population growth and the inability of theMoney Economy to effect meaningful economicadvance in the period 1956-1968.13Table IVRHODESIAN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT 1956-1968Year19561960196419681969Africans in WageNumbers(Total602640627663697Ł000)Total lessagriculture374400352407429EmploymentPercentAfrican ,Total18,817,715,314,114,4Ł of TotalPopulationTotal lessagriculture11,411,18,68,78,9European, Asianand ColouredEmploymentNumbers{'000)72,689,487,195,699,5Percent ofTotal EuropeanPopulation37,638,138,038,939,1Total[WageEmploymentNumbers(Ł000)674,6729,4714,1758,6796,5Percent ofTotalPopulation19,9618,9916,4515,3615,65Source: Calculated from RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics. June. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office.Thus it can be seen how for the African popu-lation (comprising 89 per cent of the economicallyactive labour force in the Money Economy)employment opportunities have declined relativeto population size. From 1954 to 1968 the averageannual rate of growth of African employment was1,2 per cent whereas for the European, Asian andColoured group the average annual rate (1954-1965) was 2,83 per cent,18 Despite the higher rateof growth of the non-African labour force thepercentage of the total population in wage employ-ment declined from 19,96 per cent to 15.65 percent between 1956 and 1969.The implications of these trends for levels ofunemployment can be seen to have their primaryimpact on the 'medium income' African sector ofthe Money Economy and in the African RuralHousehold sector. An estimate of the incidence ofincreasing unemployment or low productivityemployment'0 can be obtained by calculating thenumber of African adult males between the agesof 15 and 59 years who do not find gainfulemployment in the wage sector and by comparingthis result with the total number of African adultmales (who may be regarded as the potentiallyemployable labour force) either in the Money-Economy or in the Indigenous System. Table Villustrates the position as it has developed from1956 to 1968.Thus, while the level of employment reacts to thefortunes of the agricultural sector, to changingcapital-labour ratios in the major economicsectors, and to changes in wage rates, the growthof the number of African adult males eligible forwage employment does not show the same elasti-city of adjustment. Thus there has been a sharpincrease in the proportion of adult African maleswho are not economically active in the MoneyEconomy. The inference is that either these per-sons are overtly unemployed in the MoneyEconomy, or are translocated to the Rural House-hold sector, which has for some time been actingas an 'accommodation mechanism'20 in absorbingincreasing numbers of persons by increasing levelsof underemployment. While it is almost certainthat there is some direct unemployment in theMoney Economy it is likely that a large numberof dislocated labourers and their dependents seekTable VAFRICAN ADULT MALE POPULATIONOF RHODESIAPercentageAged in WageIn Employment 15-19 Years EmploymentYear ('000) (a) (b)1956196019641968602,0640,0627,0663,0772 299873 891991 0311 135 44977,9573,2463,0458,40Source: Calculated from RHODESIA 1970 Monthly DigestStatistics. June. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office; 'RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia. Salisbury ,Central Statistical Office, p. 18.Note (a) The 1962 census estimates that 46,0 per cent of ^the African population are between the ages of15-59 years and of these 52,65 per cent aremales. It has, therefore, been assumed that 24,21per cent of the total African population areadult males between the ages of 5-59. *Note (b) A strict estimate would reduce the total labourforce by the percentage of females included in «its total number. Similarly an accurate estimateof labour supply would need to include those AAfrican females seeking employment. Theserefinements have not been made in order tosimplify the analysis.14reliance on the traditional economic system. Yeteven with increased labour inputs from this sourcethe Rural Household sector has not managed toimprove its real per capita income status. Theincome of this sector is derived from threesources: 'Production for own Consumption', 'In-come from Sales' and 'Remittances from theMoney Economy', Between 1960 and 1968 therehas been little evidence of rising income levels iothe Rural Household sector.Table VITHE AFRICAN RURAL HOUSEHOLD SECTORRh. $ : Current PricesYear196019611962196319641965196619671968FromSales(a)4,54,03,83,43,43,74,24,42,8Income (Millions)Productionfor ownConsumption(b)16,319,220.521,824,222,625,430,029,7Total(c)20,823,224.325,227,826.329,634,432.5Population(Ł000)1 9832 1482 3102 4102 5002 6002 7202 8702 960(a)2,2691.8621,6451.4101,3601,4231,5441,5330,945Income per Capita(b)8,2198.9388.8749,0459,6808.6929.33810.45210.033(c)10,48910.80110,51910.45611,12010,11510.88211,98610,979Source: RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balance of Payments of Rhodesia 1968. Salisbury, Central StatisticalOffice, p. 13, Table 24.Note (a) The figures under income per capita column (c) do not aggregate, with (a) and (b) because of rounding.Admittedly certain conceptual and methodo-logical criticisms21 can be made of estimates of'Production for Own Consumption' which therebythrow doubt on the effectiveness and accuracy ofthe total income data; nevertheless the important'Income from Sales' indicator, which may beregarded as a reliable index of available purchas-ing power in the rural economy, also exhibits adownward trend when computed on an income percapita basis. Furthermore, the data used in TableVI are given at current prices. When deflated toallow for depreoiation in many values,22 the smallmargin left for the average African Rural House-hold between bare subsistence and a minimumdegree of cash security is further reduced.What has not been included in the estimates inTable VI is the important factor of remittancesfrom the Money Economy by migrant workers orrelatives. Without such data it is difficult to reachany firm conclusion about the degree of relianceof the African Rural Household Sector upon the'medium income' groups in the Money Economy.If, however, there is a continued failure of theIndigenous Economy to effect real economic pro-gress and the rural population continues to in-crease, it is. as Sadie concluded,20 likely that ruralunderemployment will manifest itself in overtunemployment. For these reasons considerablygreater attention should be given in developmentpolicy to the problems of African agriculture.This sector must, in the context of Rhodesia'sdual economy, be regarded 'as the structural ba.seupon which the economic system rests and shouldtherefore be a fundamental priority in any plan-ning or investment decisions.So far the focus has been on the record of thelast ten to fifteen years. When consideration isgiven to future trends in population and employ-ment there is further room for concern. Table VIIgives estimates of population growth for theAfrican community over the next 30 years assum-ing that the current rate of natural increase of3,4 per cent is maintained and that net migrationequals zero. The number of African adult malesis then calculated using a constant fraction of24 per 100 persons as an estimate of this popula-tion group (see Table V). Finally, the modelincludes projections of the number of Africans inwage employment under three arbitrarily assumedrates of increase in employment. These figures arethen related to the size of the African adult malegroup between the ages of 15 and 59 years toestimate the percentage of adult males who willfind wage employment at different intervals oftime:15Table VIIRHODESIAN AFRICAN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONSYear30th June1969197019751980198519902000AfricanPopulation('000)4 8405 0045 8996 9878 2569 75713 620AdultMales15-59Years('000)1 1621 2011 4161 6771 9812 3423 269No.('000)697,0705,0747.0789,0830,0872,0956,01,2%% AdultMalesEmployed59,958,752.747,041,937.229,3No.('000)697,0711,0780,0850,0920,0990,01 130,02,0%c/c. AdultMalesEmployed59.959,255,250,646,442,334,5No.('000)697.0721,0843,0965.01 081,01 210,01 453,03,5%.% AdultMalesEmployee59,960,159.757,554,951,744,4*The estimates given are projections not forecasts.Highlighted by the model is the almost certainreduction in the percentage of adult males whowill find employment in the Money Economy. Ata rate of growth in employment equal to thatexperienced between 1954 and 1968, the percent-age of adult males in wage employment willdecline to 29,3 per cent by the year 2000. If thisrate of growth in employment is increased by67 per cent to 2,0 per cent per annum there willstill be a significant reduction from 59,9 per centin 1969 to 34,5 per cent in 2000. Should the rateof growth of employment exceed the rate ofgrowth of population at 3,5 per cent, a deterior-ation in employment conditions will still not beavoided. While the model clearly reflects the needfor an effective and conscious employment policy,consideration should be given to the effects of adecline in the rate of population increase and ananalysis of the extent to which such a measurewould ameliorate the critical nature of currenttrends. Table VIII attempts to show how a reduc-tion in the natural rate of increase of 0,05 percent per annum, starting in 1970, would influenceemployment conditions:Table VIIIRHODESIAN AFRICAN POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS AT ASSUMED RATES OFGROWTHEmployment Projectionsat Assumed Annual Average RatesYear197019751980198519902000Projected('000)5 0045 8726 8087 7978 82510 723Natural Increaseper cent3.403,152,902,652,401,90Adult Males*15-59 years('000)1 2011 4091 6341 8712 1252 5751,2%Percent58,753,048,344,341,037,12,0%of Adult Males in59.255,352,049.246,543,93,5%Employment60.059.859.158,156,956,4* Assumed as a constant fraction of 24 per 100 persons.Even with this rapid decline in the rate ofnatural increase (14,7 per cent per decade) the1954-68 rate of growth in employment of 1.2 percent per annum will not be sufficient to avert areduction in the percentage of adult males whowill obtain wage employment. In order to experi-ence only a small deterioration, in the percentageof adult males in employment from 60 per centin 1970 to 56,4 per cent in 2000, African wageemployment would have to increase at an annualaverage rate of 3,5 per cent. Only by 1990 wouldRhodesia reach a rate of natural increase com-parable to the present African continental averageand ten more years would pass before the rateof population growth had reached a level close tothe present world average. To reach the equival-ent levels presently experienced in advanced Łindustrialized countries of 0,9 per cent per annumthe assumed rate of reduction would have tocontinue until the year 2020.There are, however, several reasons forconcluding that this assumed decline in thenatural rate of increase is probably unattainablein the next thirty years. Firstly, Rhodesia has no Ł16Ł f- >S keffective national population policy and would,therefore, be a late starter in terms of the modelset out in Table VIII. Secondly, the majorreductions in natural increase will have to beachieved by means of a reduction in the birthrate, now standing at 48 per 1 000. Assumingthat the death rate remains at 14 per 1 000, anatural rate of increase of 1,9 per cent perannum in the year 2000 would require a 31,2 percent reduction in the birth rate to 33,0 per 1 000.In the light of the British experience between1850-1900, when births per 1000 persons inEngland and Wales declined from 33,4 to 28,7 (areduction of 14 per cent in the birth rate),23 sucha rate of reduction in the birth rate amongstRhodesian Africans can be considered unlikely.The final reason for this conclusion is that theforces working for upward pressure on birthrates and downward pressure on death rates arenot easily reversed. Nevertheless the longer thedelay in implementing a successful populationpolicy, the more protracted will be the periodduring which difficulties will be experienced andthe more elusive the final solution.Attention has been centred on the consequencesfor employment that might result from rapidpopulation growth. Other aspects of social andeconomic life are likely to experience similar diffi-culties. Between 1962 and 1969 the African popu-lation increased by 990 000, which means that21 per cent of Africans today are under sevenyears of age. With an increasing juvenility in theage pyramid and a steady increase in life expecta-tion, due to the rapid extension of public healthfacilities, the 'burden of dependency' will growtogether with the demand for food, housing,employment opportunities, educational and socialservices.24 The problems of education25 dramatizethe dilemma of excess demand and deficiency inthe supply of social services26 in the Africansector. Levels of capital formation have been con-siderably lower in both amount and in relationto G.D.P. than was achieved during the 1950-1958era. In those days external sources of aid werereadily available and significant, whereas, since1965 and in the immediate short term, capital in-flows from other countries are neither assurednor predictable.27 Income distribution, too, showslittle sign of moving towards an egalitarian normand the present disparities can be expected towiden further, especially if differential rates ofpopulation growth continue to influence real in-comes per capita.It is against this background that the 'directdifficulties' facing Rhodesia are identifiable andupon which the qualitative deficiencies of lifetake on their seemingly intractable significance.Barring a Malthusian check Rhodesia faces anumber of alternatives: (a) to effect a rate ofeconomic development that exceeds the rate ofgrowth of population; (b) to alter the factorendowment ratios by a migration policy; (c) toadopt a population policy aimed at a reductionin the rate of natural increase, or (d) a combina-tion of the aforementioned possibilities. This papercontends that alternative (c) would provide theoptimum choice.In respect of alternative (a) the main lines ofa strategy for development would need to achieveprovision for the maximum rate of growth inAfrican employment in the Money Economy,maximum monetization of the African RuralHousehold sector, and a reversal in the trendstowards inequalitarian distribution of income.Alternative (b), the migration solution, has anumber of constraints. Firstly, the artificial trans-ference of a section of the population presupposesthat there exists some 'zone of relief to go to,and on a regional basis in itself it cures nothing.Consequently, population re-distribution withinRhodesia can at best be a short-run pailliative.Although economic gains can be made by spatialallocation policies,28 these can never provide anadequate prescription for the problem of excesspopulation growth.A second form of partial solution often mootedis the repatriation of the estimated 200 000 foreignAfrican employees and their dependents29 in orderto provide extra employment opportunities forthe indigenous African community; a number ofeconomic, social and administrative objectionshowever impair the possibility of such a policybeing made effective within a short space oftime.30 What is possible is a reduction in the netinflow of foreign Africans seeking employmentin Rhodesia in categories of work for which sup-plies of local labour are available. Immigrationdata show that this has been taking place since1955.31The third type of migration solution that hasreceived attention is the promotion of Europeanimmigration. Although it has always been a policyof Rhodesian governments, the recent formulationof immigration policy as an economic solution tothe population problem, principally by the SadieReport,32 requires qualifications to correct thepopular myth that European immigration in all17cases will be economically beneficial for thecreation of employment opportunities for theAfrican population. It is sufficient to note thatfor the purposes of this paper an inflow of skilledpersonnel may well be a valuable gain for anunderdeveloped country, but as a solution to thepopulation problem it can only be regarded aspartial and unreliable. A selective immigrationpolicy designed to promote an inflow of HighLevel Manpower, however desirable it may be initself, fails to attack the causes of excess popula-tion growth. In fact, migration solutions of alltypes avoid the root of the demographic issue.What is apparent from the argument thus faris that no rapid improvement in the 'quality oflife', as expressed in terms of the six 'direct diffi-culties' listed by the Pearson Commission, isattainable without a solution to the quantitativeside of the population problem. Thus alternative(c) provides the basis upon which economicdevelopment in Rhodesia must rest. It should beregarded as a necessary, but not sufficient, con-dition for economic progress without which theremoval of economic dualism will be virtuallyimpossible. A population policy should now beconsidered.33 Before turning to the difficultiescurrently facing the implementation of such apolicy, consider the extent of family planning inRhodesia today.FAMILY PLANNING IN RHODESIAIt was only in 1957 that the Family PlanningAssociation (FPA) was formed as a voluntaryorganization and began operations by openingup a clinic for Europeans in Salisbury.34 The totalincome of the FPA at that stage was £205 and inthe last thirteen years it has become the mosteffective agency for family planning in thecountry. Though no accurate data are available,the following is an estimated breakdown of thework of the major agencies in Rhodesia at thepresent time:Table IXFAMILY PLANNING ACTIVITY IN RHODESIA1969Agency Educational MedicalF.P.A.MissionsGovernmentLocal Authorities95%5%25%25%40%10%Because the returns of such expenditure and effortare 'social benefits' family planning cannot beeconomic to private or even voluntary concerns.Its provision, therefore, remains a social responsi-bility. Analysing the financial statements of theFPA, as it is the dominant agency in this field,36it is apparent from the sources37 from which aid «has been forthcoming that Government supporthas been sporadic, irregular and alarmingly latecompared with the known changes in populationthat have taken place in the last twenty-twoyears. Of the total funds available from 1957/8-1968/9, some £77 261, approximately 57 per cent,were derived from public sector sources and 43 »per cent from private donors. The complacencyof Government is brought out by the fact thatsome 88 per cent of its total donations of £39 123over the period have been in the last two years.38The only redeeming feature of the public sectorrecord is in fact that this is now a permanentcommitment;39 and fortunately Government's own.efforts are being extended, in the medical field atleast.LIMITATIONSThe FPA's major task lies in its educativefunction, but this valuable groundwork is beingjeopardised by the Assodation's increasing burdenin the medical field.40 The shortage of staff and <funds to train them, coupled with difficulties ofrural remoteness, inertia of the people, distrust oftechnical or social innovation, low levels ofeducation, vernacular problems and other socio-political hindrances, all mean that this herculeaneffort, given the small resources available, is con-siderably short of the task faced.Furthermore there are other problems whichhinder progress. Family planning poses ethical*considerations in virtually all societies. ProfessorArthur S. Miller writes, 'population controlwhether for growth or reduction or the mainten-ance of an equilibrium involves deep seatedinstincts and arouses immediate emotional reac-tions. It is fraught with the most difficult questionsof morals and religion, of personal freedoms and1natural rights, and touches the core of bothindividual and social wellbeing.'41 These observa-tions are not less true for Rhodesia where largeChurch bodies exist that are opposed to compre-hensive family planning programmes on principle.For these reasons family planning, an issue thatis for the individual intimately private, yet for<society inescapably public, cannot be sold ormarketed like other services. It can only be offer-ed with no guarantee of acceptance.Other obstacles are peculiar to Rhodesia.African social structure is particularly pro-natalist,a result of history, philosophy, circumstance, en-vironment and economic forces. The community.18Ł places a high status on childbearing, and a largefamily is an indication of a man's standing, if notŁŁhis 'wealth'. Division of labour in the traditionaleconomy is on the grounds of sex, giving rise toa desire for both sons and daughters. Coupledk with a fear of losing children, experience of highinfant mortality rates in the past, and the effect» of the social security system, it is not surprisingthat a high institutionalised birth rate results.'Some idea of the difficulties can be gauged fromtypical reports of field-workers: 'The Chief hadchanged his mind, he did not like to hear any^ more about family planning, of which he wentabout telling people not to come to our filmŁ show.'42 'Five of the families I visited had sixwives with the average of 15 children per family.'43>Ł 'Some returned the papers I gave them, saying "Wedo not know how to read . . .".'41 'After 1 hadsaid these words the teacher shows me he wask not interested. He said to me that family planningis only for white people, not for Africans. He said,,. "we want to have many children that can lookafter our cattle".'45 'Some people complained that> their salaries were very low and they could notafford 25 cents every month.'16 'One of the order-lies said that he had a difficult time in trying toconvince villagers that herbs tied around theirwaists were useless as a contraceptive.'47 'Byx question time a good number of parents had come.One boy stood up and asked: "If my parents con-i tinue producing children I suffer because I get lessfood and can't go to school. Is it proper for mev to advise them to limit their family?" The parentsseemed to have been taken aback by the boy'squestion, especially his courage.'48 'The Primej Minister's speech in Bulawayo as reported in thepress where he referred to immigration via the, cradle, and encouraging the crowded people over-seas to come and fill the empty spaces of Rhodesia> seemed to have an adverse effect on education ofFamily Planning among the educated Š oneschool cancelled my appointment with the RemoveClass because, as the Headmaster put it "Thereare many empty spaces in Rhodesia as we havebeen told".'49 'One woman stood up and said mostwomen like family planning but the main trouble> was with their husbands.'50Not all the problems are social, educational andeconomic. Political difficulties abound, aggravated, by misinformed, emotional and provocative state-ments from both black and white politicians, pro-fessional and amateur alike.51 It would be thegrossest misunderstanding to insinuate that family* planning will reduce African numbers in the shortor even the long run. Nothing short of a Mal-thusian check, or major disaster, could inflict suchdamage. AM that family planning could hope toachieve is a reduction in the rate of natural in-crease, say from 3,4 to 2 per cent per annum. Evenwith the present size of the African populationthis would reduce the annual population growthto about 97 000 and because such a large dropin the rate of natural increase could not possiblybe achieved overnight (it is likely to take at leastthirty years) by the time it is achieved the popu-lation size would be double its present dimensions(see Table VIII).Even if ethical, social and political difficultieswere removed there still exists the problem ofcommunication. Language barriers and literacylevels, though impeding progress, are surmount-able, given forethought and backing. Mass mediacommunication was successful in Japan, but inRhodesia how many people listen to the radio,possess or watch television, or read a regularnewspaper? All these problems mentioned abovecannot be overcome without substantial aid andco-operation. The mechanics of administrationare not as important as the dire need to gaingenuine national commitment.52 A national familyplanning structure, adequately financed and staff-ed, providing a comprehensive educational andmedical programme designed for Rhodesian con-ditions is needed, the responsibility for which liessquarely in the public, not the private domain.RESULTSWhere the FPA have been operative there is anincreasing awareness, interest and acceptance offamily planning amongst both urban and ruralAfricans. For 1968-69 the total attendance atclinics has increased 80 per cent over the previousyear and the number of persons reached byeducational film units has doubled from 26 472to 52 633 in the same period.53 Considering thatthe FPA handles about 95 per cent of theeducational work in the country, this effort stillmeans that only about 2.5 per cent of the 'target'has been reached by this method.54 Have theother 97,5 per cent been reached through theliterature campaign, household visits and publictalks that constitute the rest of the educationalprogramme? This is highly unlikely, as anexamination of field-workers' activities indicatesthat in January-June 1969 some 16 496 homeswere visited only, 11 148 of which were in ruralareas.55 Urban dwellers tend to be more receptiveto the concept and the degree of acceptance offamily planning tends to be reflated to the level of19education. But of course the FPA data has limita-tions and although greater research is needed andwould assist in planning, such a 'luxury' thoughtoo a 'necessity', paradoxically cannot toe financedout of the limited financial and human resourcesat the disposal of the Association. The size of thetask has highlighted the necessity for direct actionand relegated data collection to a secondary role,but an analysis of the Chairman's and field-workers' reports does throw considerable light onthe major obstacles to be surmounted before suchan important ingredient of a population policy mixcan be effective.CONCLUSIONHad a successful population policy been insti-tuted some twenty years ago, one could speculateon the nature of present problems pertainingto school places, school-leaver problems, labourmarket absorptive powers, housing deficiencies.consumption and nutritional standards, socialservices and incomes per capita Š conditionsthat are inextricably woven out of our evolvingdemographic character. The changes have, how-ever, already taken place. All that can be donenow is to ensure that the future is not aggravatedby more serious features. The absence of a cauti-ous, rational and acceptable population policyleads to a situation in which the writer feels hecannot be both optimistic and honest. Only whenthe population problem is no longer undervaluedin practical policy,"'0 v/hen the social responsi-bilities for economic development are accepted byall, and a concerted effort made can Rhodesiahope to be an active participant in the 'SecondDevelopment Decade', and only then will it bepossible to meet the six 'direct difficulties' cited.by the Pearson Commission, and identifiable inRhodesia, with confidence and vigour.ACKNOWLEDGMENTMrs. I. R. E. Spilhaus of the Family Planning Association (Rhodesia) has kindly provided data forparts of this paper; the views expressed, however, are those of the author.REFERENCES1. CLARK, C. 1968 Population Growth and Living Standards. In: ARGAWALA, A. N. and SINGH, S. P. eds., TheEconomics of Underdevelopment. London, Oxford University Press. 32-53.2. For an exposition of the Marxist case, see MAULD1N, W. P. 1960 Population Policies in the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Lawand Contemporary Problems, 25, 490-507.3. COMMISSION ON INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT 1969 Partners in Development: Report (Chairman:L. B. Pearson). London, Pall Mall, p. 55.4. IBID., pp. 57-8.5. IBID., p. 206. v6. UNITED NATIONS 1969 Demographic Yearbook 1968. New York, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,p. 83. The relatively high average annual death rale in Africa of 21 per 1 000 (1963-68) implies that upward in-creases in the rates of natural increase are likely in the years to come; the average annual death rates for theAmericas in the same period were 9 per 1 000 (North America) and It per 1 000 (South America), IBID.7. It is claimed (hat the only reliable statistics in Africa are for Rhodesia and South Africa, Oxford Regional EconomicAtlas: Africa. Oxford, Clarendon Press, p. 5. Yet even in these countries data are estimated to undcr-enumerate thereal size of population. Rhodesia in 1969 revised her estimates upwards, and South Africa is expected to do the samefor 1970.8. See for example the death-rates (per 1000) of 43 for Portuguese Guinea: 31 for Chad; 33,3 for Ivory Coast;*35 for Upper Volta; 29 for Liberia, INTERNATIONAL PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERATION 1969 FamilyPlanning on Five Continents. London, pp. 3-9.9. Despite much work by Governments, voluntary associations and international agencies, Africa does not enjoy goodmedical facilities. Whilst there is one physician for 750 persons in U.S.A., the ratio in Kenya is 1:20 000, GUTT-MACIIER, A. F. 1968 Medicine in Developing Countries. In: INTERNATIONAL PLANNED PARENTHOODFEDERATION 1968 The Role of Family Planning in African Development. London, 27. The Rhodesian ratio isgiven as 1:4 300, RHODESIA 1966 Rhodesia in the Context of Africa. Salisbury, Ministry of Information, Govern-ment Printer, p. 49. Added to this is the fact that medical expenditure per capita is smaller than that of advancedcountries.10. For an exposition of this model, see BARBER, W. J. 1961 The Economy of British Central Africa. London, OxfordUniversity Press.11. The annual average rates of increase 1962-69 are as follows: Europeans 0,8 per cent; Coloureds 4,8 per cent; Asians2,5 per cent, RHODESIA 1970 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1969. Salisbury, Ministry of Finance, GovernmentPrinler, C.S.R. 16, p. 6.12. For an empirical examination of human resource deficiencies in Rhodesia, see UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OFRHODESIA AND NYASALAND 1964 The Requirements and Supplies of High Level Manpower in SouthernRhodesia, 1961-1970. Salisbury, Manpower Survey Sub-Committee, Department of Economics, Occasional PaperNo. 3.2013. The spirit of such a measure was expressed in the recent plea by the Prime Minister, Mr. I. D. Smith, for Euro-pean 'immigration via the cradle', The Rhodesia Herald, 2.vi.l970.14. RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics* December. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 1, Table 1. Thev European, Coloured and Asian populations on 3O.vi.l 970 were 239 000, 16 100 and 9 200 respectively.15. RHODESIA 1971 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1970. Salisbury. Ministry of Finance. Government Printer,Cmd.R.R.12, p. 5.16. RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistic-;: December. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 1, Table 2: 90,8i per cent of the Asian, 83,2 per cent of the Coloured and 79,0 per cent of the European communities were urban.17. Defined as 'total de facto African population less all Africans living in urban areas, all Africans and dependentsworking on mines, all Africans living on European occupied farming land and all male employees living in tribalareas other than those working for African employers', RHODESIA 1969 National Accounts and Balance of Pay-x ments of Rhodesia 1968. Salisbury Central Statistical Office, p. 13, Table 24. It should be noted however that thedivisions made are somewhat arbitrary in that a degree of transition exists between them, particularly between theAfrican Rural Household sector and the 'medium income' sector of the Money Economy.18. PEJOVICH, S. 1970 Some Important Factors in the Economic Growth of Rhodesia. S. Afr. J. Econ., 38, 141, TableII. The average annual rate of growth of African labour is estimated at 0,83 per cent, but these estimates were"Ł based on unrevised employment data.19. A theoretical treatment of this phenomenon which closely approximates the Rhodesian condition can be found inCHO, Y.S. 1963 'Disguised Unemployment' in Underdeveloped Areas with Special Reference to South Korean Agri-culture. Berkley, University of California Press.y ,20. RHODESIA 1967 Report by ./. L. Sadie on Planning for the Economic Development of Rhodesia. Salisbury Govern-ment Printer, C.S.R. 35, p. 7.21. JOHNSON, R. W. M. 1961 On the Valuation of Subsistence Production. In: Occasional Paper No. 1, UniversityCollege of Rhodesia and Nyasaland, Department of Economics.22. Between 1960 and 1962 the European Consumer Price Index moved upwards from 91,7 to 96,3 points and from* 1962 to 1968 the African Consumer Price Index recorded an increase of 15,1 points from 94,4 to 109,5 points,RHODESIA 1969 Monthly Digest of Statistics: January. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, pp. 14-15, 16, 17.Ł 23. MITCHELL, B. R. 1962 Abstract of British Historical Statistics. Cambridge, University Press, pp. 27-37.24, RHODESIA 1964 Final Report of the April/May 1962 Census of Africans in Southern Rhodesia, pp. 8, 18. Inr , 1954 expectation of life at birth for both sexes was 48 years and in 1962 was put at 50 years. No doubt the 1969Census data when released will confirm that it has risen further. The 'burden of dependency' in Rhodesia is indicatedv by the following statistic: 50,9 per cent of Africans were in the 0-14 years age group in 1962. Consideration must,however, be given to the incidence of child labour in the Rural Household seator.25. For an analysis on this problem see BONE. R. C. 1968 Educational Development in Rhodesia, Rhod. J. Econ., 2,(iv), 5-27; see also RHODESIA 1969 Third Report of the Select Committee on Education. Salisbury, GovernmentPrinter, S.C.5.» J26. For another aspect of the problem, see RHODESIA 1970 Report of the Secretary for Health for the year ended 31stDecember, 1969. Salisbury Government Printer, Cmd.R.R. 19, pp. 29, 54: ', . . surveys indicate that among African% children in the younger age groups 50 per cent arc below the 10 percenlile weight level; 14 per cent are severely mal-nourished and of this number approximately one third have "Kwashiorkor".' The findings of medical inspectors inv ,,. European schools indicate that of 6 936 children examined the nutritional state of 11,85 per cent was 'borderline'and another 7,98 per cent were regarded as being in an 'unsatisfactory' nutritional condition; for Coloured and Asian^ children, of which 1 528 were examined, 20,7 per cent were 'borderline' and 28,59 per cent 'unsatisfactory'. No dataare given for African schoolchildren.27. PEJOVICH, 146, Table VIII, shows that between 1960 and 1967 the 'savings ratio' (S/Y) at 1964 prices declined" J from 19 per cent to 14 per cent while the 'investment ratio' (I/Y) declined from 18,13 per cent to 8,07 per cent. Ona per capita basis the decline in levels of capital formation would be further emphasised.->28. The theoretical issues involved in such a policy are examined in SPENGLER, J. J. 'The Population Explosion:Implications.' Paper delivered at the South African Institute of International Affairs Conference on the Impact on> i Inlernational Relations of the Population Explosion, 23.vi. Š 1. vii. 1970, Johannesburg,29. RHODESIA 1970 Economic Survey of Rhodesia for 1969. Salisbury, Ministry of Finance, C.S.R.16, p. 7. Half ofx these employees are believed to be engaged in the agricultural sector where low real wages lead Rhodesian Africansto assign a low preference to agricultural employment,30. RHODESIA 1969 Report of the Secretary for Labour and Social Welfare for the year ended 31st December, 1968.*" Salisbury, Government Printer, C.S.R.31, p. 38. Also RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics: December, p. 4,Table 5."Ł31. Report by J. L. Sadie, pp. 2-3.32. See CLARKE, D. G. 1970 The Assumed Employment Generating Capacity of European Immigration in Rhodesia,> r Rhod. J. Econ., 4 (ii), 3342.33. A population policy implies control, or some measure of control over the growth and size of the total population.— Whilst these variables are affected by mortality rates, migration and the rate and level of economic development, thediscussion that follows will be primarily concerned with policy directed towards lowering the birth rate. In RhodesiaA the birth rate for the African, Asian and European groups is 52 per 1 000, 25 per 1 000 and 18 per 1 000 respectively.Exact details of the Coloured birth rate are not available, but their average growth seems to be about five per cent.RHODESIA 1970 Monthly Digest of Statistics: December. Salisbury, Central Statistical Office, p. 2, Table 3.'34. The first clinic for Africans began 1960 and received 142 patients in its first year of operation.35. Estimated by the Chairman of Family Planning Association (Rhodesia), Mrs. I. R. E. Spilhaus. It excludes work of-1 x private doctors and industrial firms.2136. It was only in 1966 that the Ministry of Health agreed to allow family planning facilities to be made available in <Government hospitals. Indications are that increasing emphasis is being given to family planning in State insti-tutions. < <37. Private contributors include the International Planned Parenthood Federation, Pathfinder Fund and other donors.Public contributors are the Rhodesian Government, the State Lotteries and Local Authorities, A38. Data from the Family Planning Association, Salisbury, 1969.39. The direct central exchequer support for the Family Planning Association in the fiscal year 1970-71 has been in-creased 59,4 per cent on the previous year's allocation from $40 000 to $65 000. RHODESIA 1970 Estimates of'Expenditure during the year ending 30th June, 1971. Salisbury, Government Printer. Cmd.R.R. 6, p. 100.40. Of total Family Planning Association expenditure in 1969-70, medical services account for 33 per cent. *41. MILLER, A. S. 1960 Some Observations on (he Political Economy of Population Growth. Law and ContemporaryProblems, 25, 627. According to the Family Planning Association, Rhodesia, 8 per cent of 2 015 Africans who. ->expressed reasons why they had 'no interest in family planning' (January-June 1969) indicated that it was 'againsttheir religious beliefs.' \A2. FAMILY PLANNING ASSOCIATION, RHODESIA F.Mdege, Report on a visit to Belingwe Area in February1970. A43. IBID., D. Chivongodze, Report on a visit to Nuanetsi Area in January-February, 1970.44. IBID.45. IBID.46. IBID., F.Mdege, Report on a visit to Belingwe Area, 17.iv.1970.47. IBfD., A. R. Ndhulukula, Report on a talk given at Domboshawa Training Centre, 8.vi.l970. *48. IBID., A. R. Ndhulukula. Report on a visit to Que Que 6 Š 10.x.1969.49. IBID., A. R. Ndhulukula.' Report on a visit to Gwelo 15 Š 26.vii.1970.50. IBID., F. Mdege, Report on a visit to the Shabani Area, 10.ii.1970.51. Data collected by the Family Planning Association show that after the Minister of Labour's announcement that.Government had established a Population Committee new attendances at clinics exhibited a noticeable decline.52. A major obstacle is the political opposition to family planning. Consequently a major governmental programme atthis stage might meet with considerable hostility from the African population.53. FAMILY PLANNING ASSOCIATION, RHODESIA, The Chairman's Report July 1st 1968 to June 30th 1969.54. Assumes on the basis of the 1962 Census that there were approximately 2 060 000 Africans between 15 and 44years of age.55. Urban areas are Harari, Highfields, Mufakose, Mabvuke, Tafara, and Hunyani. Rural areas are Marandellas,Macheke, Hartley, Sinoia, Doma, and Triangle. Strictly speaking many 'rural areas' are associated with small towns,hence the connotation rural requires qualification.56. A recent statement by Dr. J. Marais, Chairman of the Trust Bank of Africa, when opening the annual congress of theAssociation of Rhodesian Industries, that Rhodesia should aim at a minimum population size of between 12 andt15 million by the year 2000 shows a singular lack of appreciation of the economic dynamics and external effects ofrapid population growth, The Rhodesian Financial Gazette, 31.vii.1970.22