Publication of Michigan Farm Bureau 111=1 January 15, 1992 Vol. 69, No.1 Grassroots in Action - MFB Delegates Pass Policy Resolutions vices. "The delegates expressed a feeling Delegates to the Michigan Farm Bureau that people are continually asking for more annual meeting, Dec. 10 - 13, completed services from government, but government action on more than 140 policy resolutions is hard-pressed to fund all these new ser- during delegate session discussions and vices. The delegates believed that essential I ,. ~ voting. They approved policies on issues services may be provided more efficiently, including the state fuel tax, privatization of effectively, timely and at a lower cost by the state services, P.A. 116, dairy and the North private sector," said Almy. American Free Trade Agreement. Possible changes to streamline Michigan's "The delegates emphasized the importance Farmland and Open Space Preservation Act of a sound transportation system to move (P .A. 116) were also proposed by the goods and services throughout the state, and delegates. "The changes included allowing they supported an increase in the state fuel the renewal of existing agreements for as tax of no more than six cents per gallon," little as five years instead of the current said Al Almy, director of Public Affairs for 10-year renewal period," Almy said. "They Michigan Farm Bureau. "These funds also adopted policy 'specifying that the would be earmarked for repairs and rebuild- removal of land from P.A. 116 for public ing of our transportation infrastructure. " interest should be limited to public projects only, as long as all other sites not in the recommended that transfers should be al- ventory management _program under MFB was directed by the delegates to in- program are evaluated and determined to be lowed between individuals who have land which all producers would make manage- itiate a study that would identify methods to unsuitable. They said that acreage should enrolled in P.A. 116," according to Almy. ment decisions based on economics, ac- make government more efficient, including only be removed from the program at the cording to Almy. "They supported a dairy requiring competitive bidding on projects time the agreement matures and expires, On national issues, delegates adopted a industry board to work with the Secretary and programs and allowing the private sec- except in the case of death, disability, public resolution supporting future dairy legisla- tor to replace existing programs and ser- interest or public projects. Delegates also tion that provides for a voluntary milk in- See "Dairy Policy" page 12 Ag Commission Approves Right to Farm Practices for Pesticides The Commission of Agriculture put its following those recommendations, based Keepin~;. Transpo~ of Pesticides; Disposal Nelson suggests that farmers obtain a copy seal of approval on the final draft of the on environmental common sense and of Pest~c~de Contamers~ ~tinen~alU.S.A. Application to mail at Second-Class Postage rates is pending at LanSing, MI and additional mailing offices. Letters to the editor and statewide news articles should be 1040CR-5 Form, remember to: sent to: Editor, Michigan Farm News, P.O. Box 30960, Lansing, MI48909-8460. POSTMASTER: Send address changes to: Michigan Farm News, P.O. Box 30960, Lansing, MI48909-8460. o FileEarly Editorial: Dennis Rudat, Editor and Business Manager. Staff Contributors: Mike Rogers; Connie Turbin; Donna Wilber; Henry Huisjen. o Carefully Review the Yellow Checklist Officers: President, Jack Laurie, Cass City; Vice President, Wayne Wood, Marlette; Administrative Director, Chuck . Included with the Tax Form Burkett; Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer, Tom Parker; Secretary, William S. Wilkinson. Directors: District 1 Jim M.iIIer, COlom~; ~istrict 2, Blaine VanSickle, Ma~sh.all; District 3, Diane Homing, Manchester; District 4, To~ D Accurately Respond to Part 2 Col. B. G~th.ne, De~ton; Dlstnct 5, Mar.'reignownership from one year to another Investors from Canada own the largest elevators, according to Illinois Department procedure has headed off some potential dis- does not necessarily represent land newly share of the foreign total with 27 percent. of Agriculture's Warehouse Claims asters in Michigan by encouraging liquida- acquired by foreigners, DeBraal said. The largest share of foreign-owned acreage Specialist, Dan Wilcox. tion prior to elevator insolvency. is in Maine, whose foreign holdings repre- "Nor do the numbers necessarily represent sent about 21 percent of all the reported Wilcox said the department was investigat- What are some red flags to watch for? Dr. exclusive ownership by foreigners," De- foreign-owned land in the nation, most of i~g the shutdown of the three "average- Heffron and Ron Stebbins, president of the Braal said. "A U.S. firm's land holdings can which is forested. SIzed country elevators," and that it wasn't Michigan Agri-Business Association, offer known immediately how much money was the following pointers. owed farmers or' how many farmers were involved. According to Wilcox, if the Red Flags The Top Seven Holders of U.S. Agricultural Land elevators don' t reo~n, farmers will be paid - Slow payment. for their grain by the Illinois Grain In- - Offering better deals than competitors "'Milan acres surance Fund. 4.0 - without any explanation. - Offering good prices, but due to high According to MFB Commodity Specialist charges for f9reign matter, drying, Bob Boehm, although an insurance fund shrink etc., net returns are significantly doesn't exist in Michigan to protect farmers reduced. in similar circumstances, there are certain measures designed to help guard against Things You Can Do elevator closures. - Do business with more than one concern. - Choose the type of transaction that best "In Michigan, all licensed elevators are re- fits your operation. If it's storing grain, quired to submit daily position reports on a then consider a warehouse receipt; if monthly basis, and financial statements an- the choice is a price later agreement or nually to the Food Division of the MDA " deferred price contract, ask for a security said Boehm. "These reports are scrutini~d agreement with the elevator to for any adverse trends that may indicate a deteriorating financial condition." improve your security position. - Make sure you know who you're doing Canada United Germany France Netherlands Switzerland Japan business with. If you're not Kingdom Antilles According to MDA's Dr. Ed Heffron, when an elevator is determined to be in an adverse comfortable, then do business As 01 December 31, 1990. elsewhere. financial trend, the department moves Michigan Farm News Michigan State University - Department of Agricultural Economic's 1992Agricultural Outlook January 15,1992 Economic Recovery - Hinges on Consumer Perception Lester V. Manderscheid and Mike Kelsey The change to GDP is being made for two slowness worsened consumer uncertainty will begin at a slow pace with the national reasons. First, it's a more appropriate and a willingness to make major purchases. unemployment rate reaching 7 percent or It now appears that real Gross National measure for short-term monitoring and slightly higher. Growth will accelerate Product (GNP) was lower in 1991 than in analysis of the U.S. economy. GDP is also The federal government is clearly consider- during the second and third quarters before 1990. While the dollar value for GNP in- consistent in coverage with other indicators ing a more stimulative fiscal policy. Presi- leveling off. On balance, real economic creased, correcting for inflation shows that such as employment and unemployment dent Bush has promised to announce his activity should be about 2 percent higher in the actual output of goods and services in statistics, industry output and business in- recommendations at the State of the Union 1992 than in 1991. This would still leave the economy fell. vestment. Accurate estimates can be made address. Congress appears anxious to adopt real output less than 2 percent above the earlier than for GNP because of the difficul- quick! y some kind of policy. Gi ven that 1992 1990 level, but would set the stage for con- The last half of 1991 can be characterized ties in obtain- is an election tinued growth in 1993. While this outcome as exhibiting slow growth, sideways move- ing valid es- "There are signs that the economy is year, we expect is the most probable one, there is a small ment, or the pause before the second dip of timates of the in better shape than is suggested by some type of probability of another recession in 1992 the recession, depending on whether one is international recent front-page news ana the low fiscal stimulus with economic activity remaining near an optimist, a pessimist- or somewhere in flows of pay- level of consumer confidence ... " to be enacted in 1991 levels on average. This more pes- between. Consumer prices, as measured by ments for the first quarter simistic scenario could come about if con- the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased labor and property services. The second of 1992, primarily in the form of tax changes. sumer confidence fails to rebound and fis- at a rate slightly over 4 percent. With reason for the change is that most other cal policy changes are not enacted or are moderate inflation and a sluggish economy, countries, including Canada, use GDP and There are signs that the economy is in better ineffective. the Federal Reserve system lowered the in- it is the standard measure in international shape than is suggested by recent front-page terest rates to their lowest level since the guidelines for economIc accounting. news and the low level of consumer con- Inflation in 1992 will be slower than in mid 60s .. fidence. For example, employment in the 1991. Using CPI as a measure, prices will Trend in 1992? services industry has shown considerable increase about 3.5 percent unless there is a Beginning in 1992, the usually published Key factors, short of military actions, to strength in recent months, adding more than major shock such as a major increase in oil measure of the total output of goods and watch in 1992 are consumer confidence and 700,000 jobs in the past 16 months. About prices. services will be changed from the GNP fiscal policy. A year ago we reported that three-fourths of this expansion was in the concept to the Gross Domestic Product consumer confidence had fallen drastically health services industry. Unemployment has The Michigan economy will be significant- (GDP) concept. GDP covers the goods and as a result of the situation in the Persian remained below 7 percent, interest rates are ly affected by consumer confidence as ex- services produced by labor and property Gulf. It was noted that a major rebound in relatively low, durable goods orders have pressed in their willingness to purchase located in the U.S. On the other hand, GNP consumer confidence would need to occur been up the last two months and business automobiles and other durables. If the na- covers the goods and services produced by for the economy to exhibit significant inventories are at modest levels. A basis tional economy grows about 2 percent, we labor and property supplied by U.S. resi- growth. Consumer confidence did rebound exists for economic expansion if fiscal can expect that the Michigan unemploy- dents whether located in the U.S. or abroad. following the end of the war, but fell again stimulus or other factors increase consumer ment rate will decline about 0.5 percent For the U.S., the dollar levels of GDP and on news of lay-offs and plant closings. purchases. from the 1991 level of over 9 percent. GNP differ by only a small amount--less Recent announcements of further General Employment increases will be largest in than 1 percent in recent years. Motors plant closings and other economic Our view is that economic growth in 1992 manufacturing and the service industries. Michigan Farm Income in 19921- Slight Growth Likely 1991. With both production and price of Odds are that the apple crop will be smaller and the tart cherry crop larger in 1992 Jake Ferris milk slated to increase slightly, a gross of with somewhat lower gross sales from fruit likely. $681 million for dairy farmers is forecast, The aggregate farm income picture will up $20 million 0 ver 1991. \\ not likely change much in 1992 relative to 1991. This means net returns will remain Increased output of cattle and calves is below the level of 1990. (See table on Cash again expected to offset lower prices. Gross Farm Income in Michigan.) receipts from hogs may be down some as prices decline more than production in- Trends in recent years have been somewhat creases. Turkey output will probably out- mixed, however. Cash income from market- pace any price decline. Gross from eggs will ings of crops have increased, being partly likely be slightly lower in 1992. offset by reduced government payments. The cut in government payments can be Government payments are projected to con- traced to a decline in deficiency payments tinue near to $130 million in 1992. While under the Feed Grain Program and phasing deficiency payments under the Wheat and out of the Dairy Termination Program. Feed Grain Programs will be less, disaster payments and Conservation Reserve out- Cash receipts from livestock dropped lays will increase. noticeably in 1991 mostly due to a $1.70 per cwt. fall in milk prices. Lower prices, in Gross cash income to Michigan farmers is combination with reduced output, also forecast at $3.5 billion in 1992, about $115 pulled down receipts on hogs in 1991. Ex- million, or just over 3 percent, above 1991. panded production of cattle and calves Cash expenses, at $2.3-2.4 billion, will also countered lower prices, leaving gross increase by a similar percentage, leaving net receipts about the same as in 1990. cash income only slightly above the 1991 level. Crops With cash expenses up by 3-4 percent or so in 1991, net cash income to Michigan farmers is estimated at $1,132 million, 10- Cssh Farm Income In Michigan, 1986- 1992 Outlook Index 15 percent below 1990. The prospects for (Million $) Economic Outlook 7 net cash income in 1992, of course, will Year Farm Income Projections 7 depend on the weather. With normal 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991* 1992** weather, cash receipts from crops should Corn 8 Gross Cash Income increase. Part of this will be derived from FarmMarketings Soys 8 remaining sales of large 1991 crops of com, Crops 1350 1346 1546 1612 1785 1813 1916 Wheat 8 soybeans and dry beans. In addition, a nor- Livestock 1240 1282 1210 1311 1398 1283 1281 mal growing season in 1992 should yield a Food Prices 9 Government much larger wheat crop than in 1991. Also, Payments 221 391 303 262 169 127 130 Eggs 9 larger com and sugar beet crops are likely. Other FarmIncome 123 135 143 168 180 192 204 Dairy 10 Most crop prices in calendar year 1992 are Total 2935 3155 3202 3352 3532 3415 3531 expected to be stable or even stronger than Hogs 10 Cash Expenses 1998 2042 2038 2104 2212 2283 2356 during calendar year 1991. Cattle 10 Net Cash Income 937 1114 1164 1248 1320 1132 1175 Source: Michigan Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service, U.S. Land Values 11 Livestock Gross income in 1992 from livestock is Department of Agriculture for 1986 to 1990. Sugar 11 projected to remain about the same as in • Estimated .. Forecast Management Implications 12 Michigan Farm News 1992 Commodity Supply/Demand and Price Projections -. January 15, 1992 Jim Hilker Corn Without a weather scare or a significant that other areas of the world had good change in projected demand, the 1992 com coarse grain crops and there is lots of feed price will average about the same as 1991. wheat available worldwide. Another prob- To analyze this and how prices may vary lem is the CWI does not have the financial from this scenario, we need to first examine resources to come close to being able to the projected 1991-92 U.S corn sup- make-up their shortfall despite the credit ply/demand picture and then the 1992-93 programs. projected U.S com supply/demand situa- tion. The Com SupplylDemand Balance Ending stocks will be down significantly Sheet report is shown in Table 1. Total from last year even with little growth in use supply is down about 3 percent for the due to the lower supply. The USDA is 1991-92 com marketing year compared to projecting ending stocks of 1.234 billion the year before. The decrease in production bushels, 15.9 percent of use. While this is due to the drought in the Midwest more than sufficient, it is relatively tight in the sense offset the larger beginning stocks. the market would scare easily with any adverse weather conditions. It also would On the demand side for 1991-92, which is not surprise me if ending stocks actually are still a projection at this time, total use is a bit smaller as I am slightly more optimis- expected to be up only slightly. Feed use is tic on both exports and feed use. An ending expected to be up 3 percent as we see ex- stocks ratio of above would lead to an an- pansion in the poultry, hog and beef sectors, nual average price in the $2.45 per bushel along with expected lower wheat feeding range. Given we are below that now, it this coming summer. Food, seed and in- would indicate higher prices in the spring Becoming ever more critical, the export demand picture looks good for wheat, down dustrial use will grow marginally as ethanol to allocate demand. almost 9 percent for corn, and questionable for says depending on Brazil's crop. use continues to grow. Exports is really the disappointment, as the USDA expects them Another key to this year's prices is expec- from 7.5 percent to 5 percent. This means 93 in Table 1 would indicate prices in the to be down almost 9 percent, despite the tation for next year, 1992-93. I have put if we go back to a trend yield, we will have $2.30 per bushel range. However, if yields very poor crop in what is now called the together a "most likely" scenario in Table a larger production as shown, despite lower dropped to 110 bushels per acre, about this Commonwealth of Independent States 1. We are expected to have a little more beginning stocks (notice I have gone with year's level, ending stocks would be quite (CWI), formerly the USSR. One problem is acreage as the set-aside is decreased my bias and used a smaller beginning tight and could send prices into the $2.50- stocks figure than the USDA ending stock 3.00 area for 1992-93. The main point here Wheat figure for 1991-92). With this scenario, we is that if there is much of a weather scare would increase ending stocks significantly this spring, it will provide a good selling We came into the 1991-92 wheat marketing year last May with larger beginning stocks and even with the shown higher use. The 18.5 opportunity for both this year's and next less acres planted (see Table 2). On top of this, we had a 3 bushel lower than trend yield percent stocks-to-use ratio shown for 1992- year's crops. and a lower than normal proportion harvested, leading to a much smaller total supply even with the larger carry-in. Total use, however, is projected to be slightly above last year's, Soybeans which will dramatically lower ending stocks. The u.s. Soybean SupplylDemand Balance Sheet projections out through 1992-93 are in Feed use this past summer was down from the previous year due to wheat prices being Table 3. The bottom line is much like that for com in that there is a sufficient supply, but relatively higher, but feed use was still historically high. The pleasant surprise on the use projected ending stocks are tight enough that a scare of a short crop in 1992 would be quite - side is that export projections are up. Projected ending stocks are the tightest since the 1970s bullish. Total 1991-92 supply is 6 percent above last year, due to a larger carry-in and a and is the reason we are seeing prices near the $4.00 per bushel level. Prices would be little higher production due to more acres. higher if both Canada and the EC had not had record wheat crops and large stocks. Total use is projected to be almost 8 percent higher due to both strong crush and higher Unfortunately, producers have sold most of their wheat, keeping the projected weighted export figures as the livestock sector grows and Brazil had a smaller crop last spring. The 1991-92 annual average price lower. The poorer spring wheat crop was not known until increase in use basically offsets the increase in supply and the resulting 15.9 percent September and the larger than expected CWI demand was not known until early December. stocks-to-use ratio means annual average prices in the $5.50 range for 1991-92. Nevertheless, the low ending stocks will help this next year's prices. As shown in Table 3, the 1992-93 supply/demand situation is not expected to change much 1992-93, acreage will be up 5-6 million acres as set-aside was lowered from 15 percent to from this year. In addition to watching our weather this spring, we need to be monitoring 5 percent, greatly increasing production. This, along with projected use being somewhat the South American crop this winter. If they have a good crop, it will hurt our exports next less, will increase projected ending stocks, but should keep prices over $3.00 per bushel. year relative to this year. Right now you can price new crop higher than old crop even Again, stocks will be tight enough that a negative weather situation will be very positive though the supply/demand situation would indicate otherwise. Keep an eye on this over the for prices, and last fall much of the winter wheat did not get a good start. winter and spring for forward pricing opportunities. Table 1 Table 2 Table 3 SUPPL YIDEMAND SUPPL YIDEMAND SUP PI. YlDEMAND BALANCE SHEET FOR BALANCE SHEET FOR BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN WHEAT Hilker's Hilker's SOYBEANS Proj. Guess Proj. Guess Hilker's 1990-91 91-92 92-93 1990-91 91-92 92-93 Proj. Guess Corn Acreage (MillionAcres) Wheat Acreage (MillionAcres) 1990-91 91-92 92-93 Acres Set-Aside and Acres Set-Aside and Soybean Acreage (MillionAcres) Diverted 6.3 4.7 3.5 Diverted 3.2 10.0 3.5 Acres Planted 57.8 59.8 59.0 Acres Planted 74.2 75.9 77.5 Acres Planted n.3 69.9 76.0 Acres Harvested 56.5 58.6 57.7 Acres Harvested 67.0 68.7 70.0 Acres Harvested 69.4 58.1 65.0 BuJHarvested Acre 34.1 33.5 34.0 BuJA. Harvested 118.5 108.9 120.0 BuJA. Harvested 39.5 34.1 37.0 Stocks (MillionBushels) Stocks (MillionBushels) Stocks (MillionBushels) Beg. Stocks 239 329 315 Beg. Stocks 13441 521 1198 Beg. Stocks 536 866 414 Production 1926 1962 1962 Production 7933 7486 8400 Production 2736 1981 2405 Imports 2 5 3 Imports 4 2 2 Imports 37 39 31 Total Supply 2167 2296 2280 Total Supply 9281 9009 9600 Total Supply 3309 2886 2850 Use: Use: Use: Crushings 1187 1235 1250 FeedlResidual 4709 4850 4975 Food 796 800 810 Exports 557 650 625 Food, Seed and Seed 90 97 100 Seed, Feed and Ind.Uses 1325 1350 1375 Feed 489 350 250 Residuals 94 98 100 Total Domestic 6025 6150 6350 Total Domestic 1375 1247 1160 Total Use 1838 1981 1975 Exports 1727 1575 1750 Exports 1068 1225 1150 Ending Stocks 329 315 350 Total Use n61 7775 8100 Total Use 2444 2472 2310 Ending Stocks, Ending Stocks 1521 1234 1500 Ending Stocks 866 414 540 Percent of Use 17.9% 15.9% 17.7% Ending Stocks, Ending Stocks Regular Loan Rate $4.50 $5.02 $5.021 Percent of Use 19.6% 15.9% 18.5% Percent of Use 35.4% 16.7% 23.3% Regular Loan Rate $1.57 $1.62 $1.72 Regular Loan Rate $1.95 $2.04 $2.21, U.S. Season Average $5.25 $5.20 Farm Price.S1Bu. $5.75 $5.75 $5.80 U.S. Season Average $2.20 $2.10- U.S. Season Average $2.85 $2.60 Farm Price.$/Bu. 52.28 52.60 52.60 Farm Price.$/Bu. S2.61 $3.05 S3.60 Source: USDA Source: USDA Source: USDA ~, Michigan Farm News •• January15,1992 Modest Increase In Food Prices Predicted For 1992 Mary Zehner Pork production also declined in 1990, causing tight supplies and high prices well into 1991. Pork production in 1992 will expand, resulting in retail prices averaging Changes In Food Price Indicators Food prices in 1992 will increase at the as much as 10 percent below last year. Forecast lowest level since 1986, according to U.S. 1990 1991 Department of Agriculture forecasts. Over- Poultry production continued to grow at a rate of 5 percent last year, and production ConsumerPriceIndexesPercent all, food prices in 1992 are likely to be 2-4 All foods 3.2 2 to 4 will continue to expand, but at a slower rate this year. With larger supplies of red percent above 1991. Prices for food at home Awayfrom home 3.7 3 to 5 meats this year, poultry prices will likely average below the levels of 1991. are seen as rising in the 1-3 percent range, Foodat home 2.9 1 to 3 while prices for food away from home are Meat,poultry and fish 2.3 -3to 0 Retail prices for dairy products last year averaged below year-earlier levels. Retail forecast to rise in the range of 3-5 percent. Meats 3.3 -3 to 0 dairy prices were particularly high in 1990 following a period of low milk produc- Beefand veal 3.2 -1 to 1 tion and strong demand for processed dairy products. Production has since fallen Pork 3.2 -10to-7 This year's food prices forecast reflects a somewhat and retail prices have been rising, but remaining below 1990s highs. Poultry -1.0 -3 to 0 continuation of moderate prices in most Retail dairy prices in 1991 are expected to rise a very modest 1-3 percent. Fish/seafood 0.9 0 to 3 food categories, very similar to last year. Eggs -2.1 -7 to-4 Large supplies of some food commodities Dairyproducts -1.2 1 to 3 Weather had a dramatic impact on fruit and vegetable production in 1991. A hard are expected, pointing to lower commodity Fatsand oil 4.7 1 to 3 freeze in California a year ago at Christmas severely damaged citrus crops, greatly prices and only modest gains in the Con- FruitsNegetables 5.4 0 to 3 reducing fresh market orange supplies. Cold, damp weathe~ conti~ue? on the West sumer Price Index for food this year. Freshfruits 13.3 -1to 3 Coast into the spring, slowing vegetable growth and causmg VOIdsm the m.arket Freshvegetables 4.6 0 to 3 pipeline. In the fourth quarter, vegetable harvest was slowed due to whitefly Proc.fruits/veg. -1.6 1 to 3 Disposable income is expected to increase infestations and prices rose, particularly for lettuce. Processedfruits -3.5 1 to 3 slowly in 1992 and consumer demand for food will be lackluster. As a result, general Processedvegetables1.1 2 to 4 Fresh orange prices will likely remain high through 1992, keeping the fresh fruit Sugarand sweets 3.7 4 to 6 economic conditions will continue to have CPI about level with 1991. The whitefly situation of southern California will Cerealslbakeryprod. 4.3 4 to 6 a depressing effect on food prices, at least continue to hamper production through the first quarter of this year. Prices for a Sources: Historical data: Bureau of Labor through the first half of 1992. number of fresh vegetables will be high and supplies will be short. As the vegetable Statistics; harvest moves from southern California in the second quarter, supplies and prices Forecasts: Economic Research Income growth will probably be too little to of fresh vegetables will return to more normal levels. Service, USDA. offset the effect of larger meat supplies in 1992, and red meat and poultry prices will likely average below 1991. Fruit and vegetable prices are expected to remain high. Fresh citrus supplies from California will be larger than last season's freeze damaged crop, but smaller than the pre- freeze crops. Fresh vegetable prices will be influenced by the whitefly infestation in California and lower vegetable acreage in Florida and Mexico. Prices for most other foods will rise modestly at a rate below the general inflation rate. Declines in beef production in 1989 and 1990, and the resulting tight supplies, pushed retail beef prices to record high levels. Tight supplies continued into last year along with high prices. Beef produc- tion in 1992 is expected to be slightly larger than year-earlier levels for most of the year. Retail prices for beef are expected to average near, to slightly below, 1991 levels. TableEgg Market- Larger Supplies Lower Prices Allan Rahn and Henry Larzelere While you're busy farming, In the halls of Congress and in Table egg prices during the last quarter of Farm Bureau is on the job in the l'vlichigan Legislature, Farm 1991 averaged about 10 cents per dozen Lansing and Washington, D.C. Bureau is respected as the voice below the preceding year despite a late protecting your-interests. of agriculture. It's a grassroors November rally that pushed prices (Grade Our experienced and highly organization with responsible A, white, cartoned, to volume buyers in New York) into the mid 80 cent range just respected team of lobbyists are legislative clout, powered by prior to Christmas. Net returns were there working for )'011. its members and guided by its lowered even further in December as higher farmer-developed policies. com and soybean meal prices also pushed With the thousands of bills With over seven decades of up egg production costs 1 to 2 cents per introduced on the state and experience in the legislative and dozen. federal level, Farm Bureau regulatory arenas, you can count lobbyists work full-time on Farm Bureau to get results! The number of table-egg type layers on U.S. aggressively supporting farms on Dec. 1 was estimated at 235.2 legislation that benefits farm Farm Bureau member benefits million, 2 percent above year earlier levels. families while seeking to defeat include: Table egg production in November was also measures detrimental to • Educational alld leadership I percent greater than the previous year. Egg-type chick hatch was I percent higher agriculture. opportunities and egg production potentials will continue • Health care insurance to increase into earl y 1992 as hatch for every Farm Bureau - always there and proven effective ... • Travel program month in 1991 was above its corresponding 1990 level. Furthermore, substantial in- • Discount prescription dmgs creases have occurred in the number of new • No fee VISA card pullets going into hatchery sup- • Fann. auto and life insurance ply flocks. Table egg prices are expected to weaken in What concerns you January - a typical seasonal decline from concerns us. December to January is around 10 percent. Expect prices in 1992 to average in the mid For your nearest Farm Bureau 70 cent range during the first quarter of I~92 with a price drop into the upper 60s dunng office call 1(800) 292-2680 the' second quarter of the year likely to. extension 3237 Michigan Farm News . 1992 Dairy Outlook - a Better Year Ahead for Most •• January 15, 1992 Larry Hamm and Sherrill Nott 1992 Price Outlook is Brighter As milk supplies in the U.S. declined this The dairy outlook for 1992 looks brighter fall, milk prices rose. Prices in the fall of than what the Michigan and U.S. dairy 1991 held up better than last year. The industry experienced in 1991. However, outlook for this year will depend on a tug- given how traumatic 1991 was, this out- of-war between stagnant milk supply and look still will present challenges for many static milk demand. Michigan dairy producers. The financial stress of 1991, combined with Michigan's dairy production held up well falling milk prices during the first third of during 1991 given the historically low 1992, will hold milk production down. milk prices experienced in the frrst half of Milk production for 1992 will be un- the year. By summer, the low milk prices changed from 1991 levels of 148.8 billion were causing reduced production in most pounds. Normally (over the last 10 years) major dairy states, including Michigan. this production forecast would have been However, by September, Michigan's very bullish for the dairy markets because production was running above 1990 levels. commercial demand for dairy products was For all of 1991, Michigan production increasing 2-3 percent a year. That kind of should be around 5.3 billion pounds. This increase against a static production increase would be the highest level since the pre- would lead to price increases like the in- buyout year of 1985 .. dustry saw in 1989 and 1990. The dynamics of how this production in- Will dairy demand hold up? For 1991, com- crease took place reinforces the basic mercial demand will be virtually un- structural trends in the U.S. dairy industry. changed or lower than 1990. The USDA's Financial stress, retirement, etc., result in recent 1992 projection of another 2-3 per- several hundred dairy farms leaving the cent increase was made before the latest Dairy policy, which directly affects prices, is now set for 1992. The budget deficit Michigan industry. Since 1985, around round of recession news. Commercial assessments will increase from 5 cents to 11.25 cents, effective Jan. 1. These can 2,800 dairy farms have left Michigan's demand will not likely increase by that increase further on May 1 after ASCS processes the .refunds from producers who rural landscape. Only around 840 of those much in 1992. Commercial demand will did not increase production in 1991. were buy-out participants. Along with the likely be unchanged to up about 1 percent dairy farms went some of the dairy cows. from 1991 levels. A modest increase, com- sessed for surplus purchases in 1992. The On the crop production side of dairy farm- The Michigan dairy herd will start the year bined with static production growth, will USDA is in the middle of requests for chan- ing, fertilizer prices were up about 2.3 per- at around 343,000, about 100 cows less provide greater price strength. ges to the federal milk marketing orders and cent during 1991. Some expect a further than Jan. 1, 1991. In 1985, there were the Minnesota-Wisconsin (M-W) price. increase of 6-7 percent in 1992. Agricul- 394,000 dairy cows in Michigan. The average all-milk price (3.5 percent test Any decisions they make, while affecting tural chemicals showed the highest in- before deductions) for Michigan for 1992 all dairy producers, will not likely impact in creases in recent years. They could easily For total production to reach the 5.3 billion will likely range between $12.45 and 1992. Likewise, any GATT concessions increase as much again in 1992. pound level meant that those producers $12.85 per cwt. Prices to the farm may drop granted by the U.S. will not impact in 1992. and cows remaining have been working as low as $11.50 this spring and recover to Wage rates will not likely increase in 1992. overtime to increase productivity. The over $13.50 next fall. Prices could be Dairy Farm Expenses to Increase Managers should be able to hold down average production per cow in 1991 in higher if demand picks up or supply con- Feed prices have trended downward for the wage rates for beginning workers. For Michigan will reach around 15,600, up tracts further this spring. However, any sig- last three years. If they drop another 1 or 2 dairy farmers considering new building 1,500 pounds per cow from 1985. The nificant production increase (more than 2 percent, this will have a big impact on dairy projects, labor intensive services such as extra 15 cwt. per cow were necessary to percent) in the U.S. could cause milk prices farm profitability. On those few farms contractors may be attractively priced in compensate dairy producers for the ex- to drop to 1991 levels. Continued price where all feed is purchased, feed is 45-50 1992 compared to last year. Just be sure tremely low 1991 prices. The average all volatility will put renewed emphasis on percent of total costs. On farms where quality control is built into the contract. milk (3.5 percent test before deductions) dairy farm cash flow planning. roughage and grain is grown, purchased price for Michigan in 1991 will be about feed is 25-30 percent of total costs. Dairy farmers will likely spend more time, $12.25 per cwt; nearly 4 percent lower than The 1991 CCC surpluses as measured by and perhaps more money, on required \ 1985 and 15 percent lower than 1990 price the total solids milk equivalent method In early December, the USDA was forecast- record keeping. Increasingly stringent levels. In fact, the 1991 Michigan all milk were below the 7 billion P?und trigger ing ample supplies of feed grains, suggest- standards are coming on line for tracking price was equal to 1979 levels. level. Therefore, producers wIll not be as- ing prices would stay the same or be lower crop chemical use, manure application and Anything related with machinery and equipmf!nt incrfjJased from 4-5 pe,rce'!t during during 1992. Dairy farmers who buy feed as animal drugs. This is the year for managers 1991. Given the structure of the supplymg mdustrles, expect a SImilar mcrease commodities should be able to achieve to look into how they can most effectively during 1992 despite recessionary impacts. lower feed costs. Processed feeds provided accomplish these added tasks which should by value added handlers, such as milk reduce the potential costs of future liability. replacer, vitamins and minerals, are likely to have higher prices in the coming year. Personal computer technology costs have dropped drastically in recent months. If The index of fuel and energy prices you're thinking of getting started or if you averaged less in 1991 than in 1990, although want to upgrade an older unit, 1992 is the they bottomed out in the third quarter. time to do it. The hardware is small in Prices could drift lower in 1992. Electricity exterior dimensions, quicker speed and is expected to increase in price as utilities high in storage capacity and the software is deal with higher machinery and wage costs. getting easier to learn. A computer system may be a big part of the answer to those Seed and interest costs were a bit lower in increased record keeping needs. 1991 than in 1990. Seed prices may not change much, but interest could well come Summary and Conclusions down one or two percentage points. Cash Dairy market uncertainty continues. savings here will apply only to those who Market fundamentals suggest that milk borrow money on variable interest con- prices will be up this year, but not to the tracts. For those with fixed interest con- levels of 1989 and 1990. On the cost side, tracts, the first part of 1992 may be a time there appears to be a window for refinanc- to renegotiate or refinance for lower interest ing in the first part of 1992. All in all, 1992 rates. Don't expect supplier credit or credit should be a better year, but still one that card interest rates to drop. will stress parts of the Michigan industry. Hogs and Cattle - Watch Demand and Competing Meats Jim Hilker expected production through spring are Competing meats and the income effects of pected to be up over 2 percent. The expan- more positive than expected, especially for the slack economy have both dampened sion is due to cow-calf producers having Record pork production is forecast for the spring quarter. Watch for spring for- demand. If the economy picks up, we may positive cash returns since 1986. Although 1992, with production expected to be 5-6 ward pricing opportunities on this rally. see the top side of my forecasts; if it doesn't, the feeder supply will increase, it will remain percent above 1991 levels. The Dec. 1 Hogs the low side is more likely. tighter than the early 80s. The all weights and Pigs Report released Jan. 3 shows total We can get some indication of production average feeder cattle price is expected to hogs and pigs up 5 percent, kept for breeding for the second half of 1992 by looking at the Cattle decline from the 1991 record of near $93 per up 5 percent and kept for market up 5 per- farrowing intention numbers for the report. First quarter prices are expected to average cwt. to $86-92 per cwt. cent, all compared to the previous year. December-February farrowing intentions in the $37-41 per cwt. range, second quarter Surprisingly, the September-November far- were listed as 7 percent above last year; this prices in the $35-40 per cwt. range, third Cattle slaughter is expected to increase 2 rowing was up only 4 percent versus the 8 would supply the hogs for this summer. The quarter in the $39-45 per cwt. range and percent in 1992 over 1991. However, the percent intentions in the September report. March-May farrowing intentions were fourth quarter in the $37-42 per cwt. range. production increase may not be quite as shown to be 1 percent above this past year If a rally due to this report gives pricing high, as weights are expected to drop some. Market hogs over 180 pounds were up 5 and would supply the hogs for this fall. opportunities above the ranges, consider Choice steer prices are expected to average percent, from 120-179 pounds up 6 percent, doing some forward pricing. $71- 77 per cwt. in 1992 with a fairly normal from 60-119 pounds up 4 percent and those If the weak demand for pork continues, we seasonal pattern. The economy will continue under 60 pounds up 4 percent, again com- may spend a considerable amount of time Cattle herd expansion is expected to ac- to playa large role in cattle prices along with. pared to last year. These numbers tell us the in 1992 with hog prices below $40 per cwt. celerate in 1992. The 1992 calf crop is ex- the relative prices of competing meats. Michigan Farm News January 15,1992 Are Michigan Farmland Values Stabilizing? Steven Hanson and Ralph Hepp has created substantial uncertainty about After a four-year increase in value, land prices are expected to level off in 1992. future export levels. Dairy prices have been L a n d prices in Michigan continued to rise relatively weak throughout the year and for the fourth year in a row. USD A estimates increases in livestock production are begin- of Michigan farm real estate values indicate ning to exert downward pressure on live- the price per acre of land and service build- stock prices. Land prices tend to reflect the ings averaged $1,085 in January 1991, up 8 discounted value of future cash flow levels percent from the previous year's value, and from the land. Farmers appear to have in- up 17 percent from the low in 1987. corporated the softening income levels into land prices, resulting in a leveling off of This trend is consistent with a Michigan land prices. State University survey which asked for the prices of high quality and low quality corn- soybean-hay (C-SB-H) land and sugar beet land. The high quality C-SB-H average land price was $975 per acre, up 5 percent from Increasing concern over environmental is- sues is also having a depressing effect on land prices. Liability issues related to potential environmental hazards are result- FOR SALE the previous year, while the low quality C- SB-H land price averages $618 per acre, up 3 percent from the previous year. The ing in substantial environmental appraisal costs which increase the cost of purchasing land. The higher transaction costs tend to 2 4 ACRES average price of sugar beet land was $1,362 reduce the expected return from land pur- per acre, a 9 percent increase over the pre- chases, causing buyers to reduce the vious year. amount they are willing to pay for land. However, the increases in land values ap- Credit will be available for land purchases pear to be stabilizing. Respondents to the from traditional agricultural lenders for Michigan State University survey estimated good credit risks. The borrowers will need that C-SB-H and sugar beet land prices to show that the business has adequate cash would increase by only 1 percent and 4 flow to meet repayment schedules. A strong percent, respectively, for the current year. A balance sheet and other credit factors are recent survey by the Federal Reserve Bank necessary requirements for farm businesses of Chicago indicated that October 1991 land to expand and finance land purchases. prices in Michigan were only 2 percent higher than land prices in October 1990. The short-term outlook for the farmland Farmland values were unchanged during the market in Michigan is for prices to remain July to October, 1991 period. stable, failing to keep pace with inflation, which has been running about 4 percent in Lower interest rates on farm mortgages recent years. If farm income levels continue should put upward pressure on land prices, to trend downward and/or interest rates in- but weakening farm income prospects are crease, look for land prices to adjust resulting in sluggish land prices. Corn and downward. The increasing concern over en- soybean exports have declined over the last vironmental issues will also continue to year and the situation in the Soviet Union place downward pressure on land prices. Michigan Sugar Beet Acreage Expected to Grow in 1992 Jake Ferris 1 he world sugar situation is characterized The 1991 Michigan sugar beet crop is es- by increased production and consumption timated at 2,589 thousand tons, 20 percent Paul Vlietstra and Jerry DeBlecourt are partners in F. Peterman Greenhouses, Portage, Ml. with ending stocks remaining stable at 20 less than 1990 and about the same as in They have 160,000 sq. ft. of greenhouse growing area and produce 100,000 units of bedding percent of consumption. World prices (raw, 1989. This drop was in spite of a 6 percent plants - annual flowers and vegetables and hanging baskets. contract no. 11, f.o.b. stowed Caribbean increase in harvested acres to 167,000. ports) are expected to hold near the 8-9 cent Weather stress limited yields to 15.5 tons per pound level of the past year. per acre, the lowest in 25 years! How THESE GREENHOUSE High fructose starch syrup (HFSS) has been With lower sugar prices and the smaller increasing its share of global caloric sweeteners. Production in 1991 was es- crop, gross receipts from the 1991 sugar beet crop in Michigan could be down as PARTNERS FOUND A LENDER timated at nearly 8 million MT, about 7 percent of total caloric sweeteners. U.S. much as 20 percent relative to the 1990 crop. Some further increase in acreage can WHO KNOWS BWDIRT. produces nearly three-fourths of the total in be expected in 1992 and if yields are in line "Back in the late seventies, we were borrowing from a the form of high fructose corn syrup with trends (about 20 tons per acre), (HFCS). Its use in domestic foods now ex- production should at least equal the large bank but we weren't happy with the way our account was be- ceeds amounts of U.S. cane and beet sugar crop of 1990. ing handled. What appealed to us initially about Farm Credit utilized. was a friendly loan officer and an attractive interest rate. Over the years, weVe used our line of credit to carry us through World consumption of high intensity or low calorie sweeteners is estimated at 7.5 mil- Don't Miss Low our growing season and to do quite a bit of expansion. But lion MT, sugar sweetness equivalent, repre- senting about 6 percent of global sweetener InterestRates more importantly, we discovered that Farm Credit has a solid consumption. (Source: Landell Mills Com- Low interest rates should lower understanding of the greenhouse and bedding-plant business. modities Studies.) farmer interest expenditures in 1992. Our relationship with Farm Credit has given us a much There may be an opportunity to clearer and in-depth understanding of the financial side of The U.S. raw sugar price (contract no. 14, refinance some longer-term fixed nearby futures, c.i.f./duty paid, NY), after rate obligations at lower rates as well our business. holding near 23 cents per pound for several as to lower interest expense on "Our loan officer's grasp of the key ratios for our business years, fell below 22 cents in 1991. Analysts operating loans. Credit availability in Economic Research Service, U.S. may be the key factor for some - debt per unit sold, debt per square foot, return on assets - Department of Agriculture, expect this level producers. Lending institutions are has really been valuable. Each year she prepares an analysis of price to continue into 1992. under regulatory pressures to main- tain sound portfolios as regulators try on our business and reviews our business trends - where The Midwest wholesale price for refined to avoid a repeat of the losses sus- we've been and how we're doing compared to plan. We sugar also has come down from above 30 tained by the savings and loan in- went to Farm Credit for a loan, but looking back, we ended cents for most of 1990 to the 25-cent range dustry. Borrowers will need accurate in 1991. records and a good business plan so up with a lot more." that lenders can justify the loan to For the first time on record, the list price for regulators. Given the drop in interest HFCS-55 was above that of refined sugar rates in December, it is not likely that during several months last summer. With the price difference much narrower than in the prime rate will decline further. Farmers and other borrowers may < | | > FARM CREDIT SERVICES the past and with the prospect for firm corn want to act scon on 1992 operating ^K Deep roots, good people, and a will to serve. prices, some support is now under the U.S. loans and any possible refinancing of domestic sugar market. longer-term debts. .., Michigan Farm News _. January 15, 1992 . 1& What Does it All Mean? - Farm Management Implications Ra/phHepp margins and net farm returns. Entering 1992 with reduced debt levels and interest charges, farmers are better able to cope The financial pOSitIOn of Michigan with slightly lower net cash income. agriculture has strengthened considerably during the last five years. The value of total Although measures of financial perfor- farm assets has increased 18 percent, farm mance have been good the last few years, debt has decreased 25 percent and owner and suggest a stable to modestly improving equity has increased 35 percent. The debt- farm sector for 1992, all farmers are not to-assets ratio dropped from 27.9 percent in participating in the recovery. A small per- 1986 to 17.6 percent in 1991. cent of the operators have very low profit margins and return on assets. The lower Although the softening of livestock and prices, combined with high debt levels, low milk prices lowered net returns in 1991, it productivity and over-commitment of resulted in modest improvements in finan- resources, are causing poor repayment cial performance during the year. Areas of ability and stagnation in financial progress. the state that experienced poor crop condi- The financial problems for these farmers tions due to weather factors impacted net are expected to become more serious in returns and were negative factors for the 1992. The reduction in interest payments financial position of those businesses. due to falling interest rates should help cash flows, but the financially stressed business The upward trend in financial conditions is still needs to concentrate on reducing debts, Continue to follow best management I/,ractices in applying production inputs, expected to continue in 1992, but not at the deferring capital purchases and increasing negotiating land rental agreements and in ding the best prices for crop supplies. same level experienced during the last five profit margins. years. Farm income indicators remain at productivity will strengthen resource ef- those items that show greater revenue than levels that support a balance sheet outlook Farm businesses in a strong financial posi- ficiency, lower production costs and allow costs, so the business is not taking on more of limited asset growth, stabilized debt tion can use free cash flows to make modest for increases in volume of production that debt than can be handled during the ex- levels and slight improvement in equity capital purchases and slight growth in busi- pay dividends when prices recover in the pected cost/price squeeze in 1992. position. The downward pressure on output ness volume. Capital expenditures that next upward trend in the cycle. Budget the prices and increasing costs will lower profit reduce labor requirements and improve capital expenditures carefully and invest in Follow the soil test recommendations, prac- tice integrated pest management and reduce expenses that will not lower productivity. Attention to details will pay dividends with higher net returns. Nail down a lifetime The development of pro-forma (projected) income statement, balance sheet and cash .flows will aid in monitoring the financial results as they unfold during the year. If the retirement income ••• and 1992 income situation turns out to be better than expected, the capital expenditures can be advanced and cash flows used to make capital purchases. Until the financial picture is clarified, concentrate free cash flow on high interest earnings, too making advanced debt payments to allow flexibility in managing finances. With lower interest rates, loans with fixed terms can be refinanced. Projected financial statements are the basis for justifying the credit needs during the year, and demonstrating repayment ability to creditors. Continue managing the details With a Single Premium so profit margins are maintained during periods of less than desirable prices. Deferred Annuity Financial management in the 1990s will be the key management area for attention for operations with a long-term planning horizon. Competitiveness and profitability should be the primary objectives for growth-oriented agricultural. businesses. from Farm Bureau Life Insurance Slow and steady growth and development of the business will keep revenue increas- Company of Michigan ing, and result in greater resource efficiency and long-term profitability. "Dairy Policy" continued of Agriculture in conducting the program," With just a one-time deposit (from $5,000 to $250,000), you can guarantee he said. "They also supported a dairy heifer yourself an income for life. You can also lock in interest rates for up to five export program, inclusion of milk proces- sors in the automatic trust provisions of the years at a time, and withdraw funds without penalty (within limits). Packers and Stockyards Act and an increase in minimum standards for milk similar to Save on taxes, too: You pay no taxes on your interest earnings until you the current California standards. They op- withdraw them, so your fund can build up for years, protected from taxes. posed the use of assessments other than those needed for a milk inventory manage- ment program. " Your funds are safe: There's no risk. Farm Bureau Life is one of only a few life insurance companies in America that has earned the highest rating Current negotiations toward a North American Free Trade Agreement were sup- (A+, Superior) from A.M. Best for the past 16 years in a row. We are backed by ported by the delegates. "They strongly over 40 years of financial strength and quality investments, so you know your urged u.s. negotiators to insist that provisions of such an agreement be fair and future is safe with us. equitable toward all segments of agricul- ture," said Almy. "The delegates said a fair Call your Farm Bureau Insurance agent today ... and nail down a secure and equitable agreement would include harmonization and enforcement of all rules financial future. and regulations that differ among the countries. " MAKING YOUR FUTURE MORE PREDICTABLE Resolutions on state and organizational is- sues become the official policy of the '_.C!) Michigan Farm Bureau for the coming year . .... FARM BUREAU Resolutions on national and international issues are forwarded to the American Farm ..uu INSURANCE ..uu Bureau Federation (AFBF) Policy FAIM MUTUAl • fARM lIR • fMM ..-AU GUIIAl • fI AMIIlTY Development Committee for possible con- sideration at the AFBF annual meeting in January. Michigan Farm News January 15,1992 Pesticide Certification Statewide Examination Schedule Note: All fees must be pre-paid to the Reg. 5 St. Joseph Regional Office Clinton County MDA Lansing Office prior to taking 4032 M-139 (Scottdale area) Jan. 25,1992 at 1 p.m. the pesticide examination. Building 116 Ovid-Elsie High School Private and Commercial exams Mar. 12,1992 at 7:30 p.m. are given at the MDA regional Fairgrounds, St. Johns office 4032 M-139, St. Joseph Pre-registration is required. Call Reg. 1 Escanaba Regional Office (Scottdale area), every first and (517) 224-5240 for registration. State Office Building third Friday of the month from Eaton County HERITAGE 305 E. Ludington 8 a.m. to 3 p.m. by appointment BUILDING SYSTEMS 2nd Floor Conf. Room Feb. 20, 1992 at 1 p.m. 30 i SO 110 800-643-5555 only. Fairgrounds, Charlotte 40x50x12 By appointment only. Registered Technician exams Pre-registration is required. Call Phone: (906) 786-5462 will be given every Tuesday at (517) 543-2310 for registration. 9 a.m. Eastern for all exam dates BUILD IT YOURSELF AND SAVE MONEY the regional office from 8 a.m. C o m m t c U steel buddings looming eesy bolt up M M k > lor me Feb. 4,1992 Mar. 3, 1992 Gratiot County do it yourself builder from Amortee s lergest distributor Wo hsvs to 3 p.m. by appointment only. ovor 5,000 slondsfd sties of •nop, form. .luuolilol, I, airmen Ml ond Apr. 7,1992 May 12,1992 Mar. 5, 1992 at 1 p.m. mini sewohouss buildings AH ore cone) ISM with engineer sffflusd Phone:(616)428-2575 permit drawings to moot oil loesi building codes. 20 yoor roof Jun. 9,1992 Aug. 4,1992 Comm. Center, Ithaca wsrrenty, ond pointed wells. Prices ere F O B from our e Allegan County menutecturtng plents nouunwlds Col us todsy lor s m o mtormetion Oct. 6, 1992 Nov. 3, 1992 Pre-registration is required. Call pscssge. end s quote on our top quettty buHdmge Wednesday, Apr. 1,1992 (517) 875-5233 for registration. Dec. 1,1992 1. Training from 10 a.m. to noon, 50' x 100' x 16' ROOF SYSTEM Houghton County testing from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. EQUIPMENT & HAY STORAGE Hillsdale County Hancock Location 2. Training from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m., S10.985 Mar. 11,1992 at 1 p.m. Houghton County Ext. Office testing from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. Fairgrounds, Hillsdale 1500 Birch St. Must pre-register by contacting: Pre-registration is required. Call 1 p.m. Eastern for all exam dates Allegan CES Office at (517) 439-9301 for registration. Mar. 4,1992 Apr. 8,1992 (616) 673-8471, Ext. 383. May 6,1992 Aug. 5,1992 Barry County Ingham County Oct. 7,1992 Wednesday, Feb. 5,1992 Feb. 6, 1992 at 1:30 p.m. Reg. 2 Traverse City Regional Office Training from 9 a.m. to noon, Alaiedon Twp. Hall, Mason 701 S. Elmwood, Suite 132 testing from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. Pre-registration is required.Call (Located on the Main Floor) Must pre-register by contacting: (517) 676-7207 for registration. wind-driven _ By appointment only Mon. - Fri. Barry CES Office at Phone:(616)947-3171 "Exams will be given in the (616)948-4862. Jackson County Jan. 15,1992 at 1 p.m. PONDMASTER Branch County Mar. 10,1992 at 1p.m. Traverse City Office on an Tuesday, Mar. 31,1992 appointment basis only. CES Office, Jackson Training from 9 a.m. to noon, Pre-registration is required. Call Reg. 3 Grand Rapids Regional Office testing from noon to 4 p.m. (517) 788-2492 for registration. State Office Building, Ste. 2-C and 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Michigan Conference Room Must pre-register by contacting: Lenawee County 350 Ottawa, N.W. Branch CES Office at Feb. 18,1992 at 9 a.m. & 1:30 p.m. Grand Rapids, Ml (517) 279-8411, Ext. 256. CES Office, Adrian **By appointment only, Mon. - Fri. Calhoun County Pre-registration is required. Call Phone (616) 456-6988 Thursday, Feb. 13,1992 (517) 264-5300 for registration. Reg. 4 Saginaw Regional Office Testing from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. and State Office Bldg. 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Livingston County 411-F E. Genesee Must pre-register by contacting: Jan. 16,1992 at 1 p.m. Saginaw, Ml Calhoun CES Office at CES Office, Howell Open Examination Sessions (616)781-0784. Pre-registration is required. Call Phone: (517) 771-1778 to register (517) 546-3950 for registration. Jan. 22,1992 Feb. 12,1992 Cass County Mar. 5,1992 Mar. 11,1992 Thursday, Mar. 26,1992 Shiawassee County Mar. 26,1992 Apr. 1,1992 Training from 9 a.m. to noon, Feb. 25,1992 at 3 p.m. & 7 p.m. Apr. 8,1992 Apr. 15,1992 testing from 1:30 p.m. to 4 p.m. Pines Restaurant, Owosso Apr. 22, 1992 Apr. 29, 1992 Must pre-register by contacting: Cass CES Office at Pre-registration is required. Call ICE-FREE AREAS May 13,1992 May 27,1992 (517) 743-2251 for registration. (616)445-8661. FOR LIVESTOCK Arenac County Reg. 7 Detroit Regional Office Mar. 12,1992 at 1 p.m. Kalamazoo County Lahser Center Building FISH & WATERFOWL Location: Standish, Ml. Testing from 8:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. 126400 LahserRd. Contact Arenac CES Office for Jan. 22,1992 Feb. 26,1992 FACTORY DIRECT - VISA/MC Mar. 25,1992 Southfield, Ml appointment at (517) 846-4111. or contact COD Above exams will be given at the Wed. by appointment only. your nearest PONDMASTER dealer Kalamazoo CES Office Phone:(313)356-1701 Gladwin County Mar. 31,1992 County Administration Building Room 303, 201 W. Kalamazoo Southfield Parks & Recreation 2600 Evergreen Rd. WADLER MFG. CO. INC. Contact Gladwin CES Office for GALENA, KS 66739 appointment at (517) 426-7741. Southfield, Ml Ag Action Day - Jan. 24,1992 Huron County Testing from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Kalamazoo Valley Community Every Wed. by appointment only. 9 a.m. -11 a.m. 800-892-3537 Jan. 29,1992 at 1 p.m. & the last Wed. of each month: Feb. 26,1992 College. You must pre-register by Contact Huron CES Office for contacting: Kalamazoo CES at 9 a.m. -11 a.m. appointment at (517) 269-9949. (616)383-8830. & 1 p.m. - 3 p.m. Call for an appointment at: Isabella County St. Joseph County (313)356-1701. Jan. 15,1992 at 1 p.m. Thursday, Feb. 25,1992 Contact Isabella CES Office for Training from 9 a.m. to noon, New For 92 From Ag-Chem Equipment appointment at (517) 772-0911. testing from noon to 4 p.m. and 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Midland County Must pre-register by contacting: Mar. 11,1992 St. Joseph CES Office at Contact Midland CES Office for (616)467-6361. appointment at (517) 832-6640. Van Buren County Saginaw County Tuesday, Jan. 21,1992 Feb. 6,1992 at 1 p.m. Training from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. Mar. 18,1992 at 1 p.m. testing from 7 p.m. to 8 p.m. Contact Saginaw CES Office for Friday, Feb. 14,1992 appointment at (517) 799-2233. Training from 9 a.m. to noon, testing from 1 p.m. to 3 p.m. Sanilac County Must pre-register by contacting: Mar. 20,1992 at 9 a.m. Van Buren CES Office at Ag-Chem Equipment Co., Inc. has intro- jack, a fresh water container, and flotation Contact Sanilac CES Office for (616)657-7745. appointment at (313) 648-2515. duced a new 750 Gallon Pull-Type Sprayer. tires. The high-capacity 750 model unit offers a Reg. 6 East Lansing Regional Office choice of either a 47 1/2' or 60' spray boom The pump on the Model 750 is a high- Tuscola County MSU Campus, Feb. 20,1992 that raises hydraulically to adjust for varying capacity 540 R.P.M. centrifugal pump that is Geagley Laboratory crop heights. With the 60' boom, an operator Private Applicators Only 1615 S. Harrison Rd. frame mounted and PTO driven. An optional 1:30 p.m. Phone:(517)373-1087 can individually raise or lower the boom diaphragm pump is available for high pres- Registered Technicians Only The following dates have been arms with a hydraulic leveling system. sure vegetable spraying. Electric cab controls 9:30 a.m. set for the group certification give the operator fingertip operation of boom Review at 9 a.m., exams at the East Lansing The chassis features a heavy-duty tandem on/off and pressure regulation. Exam at 1:30 p.m. Regional Office for 8:30 a.m. axle that delivers a smooth ride in rough field Call Tuscola CES Office for Jan. 27, 1992 Feb. 10, 1992 conditions. Other standard features include For your nearest dealer, contact AgTec appointment at (517) 673-5999 Feb. 24, 1992 Ext. 228. stainless steel agitation tube, a large acces- Sprayer Division, 1420 S. 11th Street, sory platform, an adjustable hitch, tongue Niles, MI 49120 or phone (616) 683-8830. Michigan Farm News January 15, 1992 Using Infrared Heat Lamps Correctly Many farm building fires result from the makeshift installation and improper use of infrared heat lamps. Too often, heat lamps are plugged into any available receptacle and suspended by twine or the electrical supply cord - and under those conditions, they present a serious hazard. On the other hand, if you look for the UL label on all heat lamp equipment and follow proper guidelines, you'll find that heat lamps are safe, efficient, and dependable. Here are tips for you to follow if you use heat lamps as a supplemental heat source in your farm buildings: From Farm Bureau Insurance D The cord on a heat lamp should lead directly to a permanent- ly installed porcelain outlet - never to an extension cord. lamp cause them to deteriorate. Al- The outlet may be a conventional duplex receptacle. An al- ways use a plain porcelain receptacle. ternative outlet would be a locking receptacle that requires a half-twist to insert the plug. This type of installation ensures D Heat lamps should be protected from that the plug will not fallout of the receptacle - but animals moisture and mechanical damage by a that bite or pull on the cord may receive ail electrical shock. nonremovable guard and reflector top. The guard should be designed to keep D The receptacle should be fed by a circuit that is adequate to the bulb a safe distance from the litter. supply the connected load. A 2D-ampere circuit requires # 12 If the fixture falls and remains con- AWG wire, which will supply up to seven 25D-watt heat nected, the guard should roll the lamp lamps. a 15-ampere circuit requires # 14 wire and will supp- onto its side, directing the heat away ly electricity to a maximum of five 25D-watt heat lamps. from the bedding and litter .. Use U.f.-type plastic insulated wire (which can also be buried underground) when you install a new supply. D Before you purchase a heat lamp, see if it has a proper cord - one that is moisture resistant, corrosion resistant, and heat resistant. The best type is designated as HSJ, available at The safest, most efficient wood heat system on the electrical supply stores and some farm or hardware stores. market. the TAYLOR waterstove sits outside D The heat lamp should be suspended securely with a light and heats your home chain. Both the lamp and the cord should be protected so and 100% of household SAFE HEAT LAMP ILLUSTRATION that poultry or other livestock cannot come into contact with hot water . it. The lamp should be at least 15 inches away from bed- • UL listed I (1) Always plug directly into a permanent circuit outlet; (2) Rubber • Thermostatic control/I ding, litter, or other flammable material . • 12 to 24 hour burn time' ' jacketed, asbestos-insulated cord approved by Underwriters' Labor.tories (type HSJ); (3) Hang by chain or No.9 wire, never by the cord; (4) Heat resistant porcelain switch less receptacle; (5) Strong bail or guard band on D The heat lamp must be installed in a switchless-type por- TAYLOR MANUFACTURING, INC. celain receptacle. Rubber, plastic, or brass receptacles are PO Box 518. Elizabethtown. NC 28337 reflector. hazardous because the high temperatures produced by the Call 1-800-545-2293 for more details. Special Weekend Packages Just For Farm Bureau Members! Package #1: $10900 + tax ' Includes: *Deluxe accommodations for 2 weekend nights (Friday, Saturday or Sunday) *$2000 in food credit A vailable at the following hotels and restaurants. EAST NORTH WEST EXPRESSWAY SOUTH Grazin in the Brass Holly's Landing Grazln in the Brass Holly's Landing Holly's Backdoor Bar • Grill Grand Rapids, MI Grand Rapids, MI Kalamazoo, fy11 Kalamazoo, MI 'Grand Rapids, MI (616) 949-9222 (616) 363-9001 (616) 375-6000 (616) '381-7070 (616) 241-6444 Owned by Holly's, Inc. and operated under license from Holiday Inns.Franchlslng, Inc. Package #2: $13300 + tax ' Includes: *Deluxe accommodations for 2 weekend nights (Friday, Saturday or Sunday) *$2000 in food credit to use in Emerald's Restaurant $J$-\\~~N\. Grand Rapids, MI (616) 957-1770 CRONNf PlA~ . Owned by Grand Rapids Hotel Limited Partnership and Operated by Holly's, Inc. under license from Holiday Inns F~anchaslng, Inc. Package #3: $60 + tax' Includes: Package #4: $8000 + tax ' Includes: *2 weekend nights (Friday, Saturday or Sunday) *2 weekend nights (Friday, Saturday or Sunday) *$2000 in food credit to be used at [=) Holly's Bistro Restaurant [~ ] Grand Rapids. MI Muskegon, MI Lodge (616) 452-2131 Holly's Bistro (616) 733-2601 Call hotel direct. Ask (or Farm Bureau Package. Valid until May 15, 1991. Packages are subject to availablility. Cannot be used in conjunction with any other discounts. Michigan Farm News January 15,1992 Young Farmer Winners - MFB State Annual Highilight Snider Earns State Distinguished Young Farmer Title Mayer Talks His Way To State Award MFB President Jack Laurie (left) presents Andy Snider with his state award. Robert Mayer (left) accepts the keys to a Case-1H tractor for 100 hours free use of the tractor from Case-IH Area Sales Manager Robert Weiglein. Andy Snider of Hart, Oceana County, Snider is active in the Oceana County Farm earned MFB's 1991 "Distinguished Young Bureau's Community Action Group pro- Robert Mayer of Bronson, Branch County, acres of corn and beans, plus a gladiola Farmer" title. He also won $1,500 worth of gram, the Dairy Herd Improvement As- survived several rounds of competition to operation based in Mexico. He attended Great Lakes Hybrid seed products, and an sociation, the Michigan Animal Breeders win Michigan Farm Bureau's Discussion Bronson High School and Hope College all-expense paid trip for him and his wife to Cooperative, the Michigan Milk Producers Meet contest. He out-talked three other and serves on the Branch County Young Kansas City, Missouri, to compete for the Association, 4-H and church. The Sniders young farmers in the final round on the Farmer Committee and was a legislative American Farm Bureau's national title. have three children: Luke, 6; Holly, 4; and topic of "How Can American Farmers leader for MFB's Washington, D.C. Legis- Zackary, 6 months. Receive Adequate Health Care?" Mayer lative Seminar. Snider operates a 390-acre dairy and feeder won an expense paid trip to the American pig operation in partnership with his Runner-up for the "Distinguished Young Farm Bureau Federation annual meeting in Runner-up in the contest was Roger Bezek parents. Contestants for this statewide con- Farmer" title was Doug Myers of Marshall, Kansas City, Missouri, to compete in na- of Maybee, Monroe County. Roger test are judged on the progress they have Calhoun County. A graduate of Michigan tional level competition. Mayer also won a operates an 80-acre farm specializing in made since their entry into the agricultural State University's Agriculture Technology Honda Four-TRAX and 100 hours free use corn and soybeans and is also employed by industry, as well as their Farm Bureau and program, Myers operates over 1,800 acres in of a Case-IH MAXXUM tractor. the Monroe ASCS as a field reporter and by community involvement. Snider's manage- cash crops, utilizing futures marketing, for- the Federal Crop Insurance Corp. as a loss ment abilities have allowed the farm opera- ward contracting and options to improve Mayer is part of a family owned and adjuster. He serves on the Monroe County tion to expand their dairy herd to facilitate cropping profitability. He serves on the Cal- operated farm corporation, which operates Farm Bureau Board of Directors and two family incomes, and improve the ef- houn County Young Farmer Executive 900 acres of gladiola cut flowers and 1,500 several county committees. ficiency of the swine operation to boost the Committee and on the organization's Wheat number of feeder pigs. and Feed Grains Advisory Committee. Arndt Wins Outstanding Young Farm Woman Title FREE SEED CATALOG! HARRIS SFSDS Carolyn Arndt (right) receives a $1,500 certificate from Great Lakes Hybrids' VEGETABLE & FLOWER GROWERS Northern Region Sales Manager, Ken Austin (left) as her husband David observes. We offer a full line of vegetable and flower seed for the professional grower Carolyn Arndt of Harbor Beach, Huron activities. She is currently assisting in a and home gardener. Harris varieties have long been famous for quality and County, was honored as Michigan Farm Farm Bureau "adopt a classroom" project yield. When you order from Harris Seeds, you'll receive the finest service in Bureau's "Outstanding Young Farm with an inner city Detroit school, with area the industry. Woman" for 1991. Arndt won $ 1,500 worth farm families "adopt" preschool through of seed products from the annual contest grade 5 classrooms. Write to us today for your FREE copy of our 1992 Harris Seeds Catalog. sponsor, Great Lakes Hybrids, Inc., and an all-expense paid trip to the AFBF annual Arndt, who describes herself as a salesman meeting in Kansas City, Missouri. for the agricultural industry, listed foreign YES, RUSH ME FREE 1992 trade, environmental concerns, and con- HARRIS SEEDS CATALOG. Clip and return this catalog Arndt and her husband David, operate a sumer confidence in the food supply as the request to: 300-acre dairy farm in partnership with his three most important issues that farmers Check one: parents, Allen and Marjorie Arndt. Carolyn need to address in the 90s. The Arndts have • 1992 Home Garden Catalog HARRIS SEEDS and David were district winners of three children: Beth, 10; Renee, 8; and H 1992 Professional Growers' Catalog Amy, 3. Catalog Dept 9217 Michigan Milk Producers Association's "Outstanding Young Dairy Couple" in NAME P.O. Box 22960 1990, and also were honored as "Most Runner-up in the contest was Lisa Johnson Rochester, NY 14692-2960 Progressive Young Dairyman" by the of Lakeview, Montcalm County. Lisa and STREET Michigan Dairy Herd Improvement As- her husband, Marvin, operate a 1,000-acre sociation in 1990. potato and cash crop farm in partnership CITY with his parents and brother. In addition to FOR FASTER SERVICE her farm involvement, Lisa is a former STATE ZIP CALL: In addition to her active farm involvement, Carolyn serves on several Huron County radio farm show host and currently writes 1-716-442-0410 Farm Bureau committees, is involved in for Great Lakes Publishing Co. The dairy promotion, 4-H, church and school Johnsons have two children, Andrew, 4- 1/2, and Rebecca, 2-1/2. Michigan Farm News ~_ January 15, 1992 Rep. Camp Keynote Speaker at The Difference is YOU! Mid-Michigan Ag Day Telling the Farmer's Story The third annual Mid-Michigan Ag Day is and Theresa Silm, 4-H youth agents from Want a chance to learn how to promote they'll be discussing," said Chamberlain. planned for Saturday, Jan. 25, 1992, at the Shiawassee and Clinton counties. agriculture, how to educate non-farmers, "We also have a number of workshops Ovid-Elsie High School, from 8 a.m. to 3 how to speak effectively for agriculture? scheduled for the afternoon portion of the p.m., with U.S. Rep. Dave Camp serving as Other classes include: Zoning PermitslEn- Then you'll want to attend "The Difference program that will give participants a wealth the special guest speaker at the Cooperative vironment; Rain or Drought in 92?; Com- is YOU Telling the Farmer's Story," of information and material to take back Extension sponsored event. munity Leadership; Household Waste; Un- workshops scheduled Jan. 30 in Grayling home with them." derground Storage Tanks; Gypsy Moth; and Feb. 4 in Lansing. Mid-Michigan farmers and family mem- P.A. 116; Wetlands; PesticidelFertilizer Those afternoon workshops will include: bers participating in Ag-Day can select Storage; Computerized Field Records; Fair Workshop participants will have an oppor- Agriculture in the Classroom Programs; three educational classes from a list of 31 Trade; Farming Lawfully; Farm Liability tunity to meet and participate in roundtable Working with Local Media; Publishing diverse classes offered throughout the day. and Insurance; Sustainable Agriculture; discussion about a variety of topics includ- Newsletters; Chairperson Workshop; and A sampling of the classes offered include: Cost of Producing Milk; Farmland - Lease ing Farm Tours; Working With the Media; How to Conduct a Successful Issues Infor- - "Update on Dairy Policy and Outlook," or Purchase? Adopt an Acre Program; Safety and Health mation Meetings. taught by Dr. Larry Hamm, of MSU's Programs That Work, according to Promo- Agricultural Economics Department. He Over 50 local agribusinesses will have ex- tion and Education Department Manager The cost of $15 per person includes refresh- will review proposed changes to the M -W hibits of their products and services Julie Chamberlain. ments, lunch and all materials. Make price series and Milk Marketing Orders. throughout the day, as well as a Pesticide checks payable to Michigan Farm Bureau, - "Environmental and Economic Con- CertificationlRecertification Exam will be "The roundtables are designed so that par- and mail your reservation to Michigan siderations for Weed Control," taught by offered to those in need of certification ticipants can speak one-on-one with people Farm Bureau, c/o Cindy Kelly, P.O. Box Dr. Karen Renner, MSU Department of credentials. For more information, contact who have actually conducted the programs 30960, Lansing MI 48909. Crops and Soils . - "Exploring Agricultural Careers for the CES office in either Clinton, Shiawas- see, Ingham, or Gratiot county. .- -- - - -.- - - - - - - .--. - -- - -- ----- -- - - --- - - - -- - -----.- - - - - - - -- - ---- - .-- -- - ... Youth" will be instructed by Dean Kiesling The Difference is YOU! Telling the Farmer's Story Cherry Growers to Vote on Assessment (Deadline Jan. 22, 1992) The Michigan Cherry Co~ttee's 5-year referendum has been scheduled by the Michigan Department of Agriculture to be held on Jan. 20 - 31, 1992. The referendum is a continuation referendum at the current assessment level to allow the Michigan Cherry Committee to Name continue promotion, research, market development and new product development efforts. Three years ago, the Michigan Cherry Committee contracted with the Cherry Marketing Address Institute (CMI) to work towards the National Cherry Program that involves other states. Today CMI represents growers in Michigan, Utah and Wisconsin and works effectively with growers in Washington, Oregon and Pennsylvania. All states that participate in the CMI Area Code and Telephone program assess their growers $10 per ton and direct 95 percent of these funds to CM!. The Michigan Cherry Committee retains 5 percent or 50 cents per ton to maintain a small County Farm Bureau Michigan only program. These funds are used to fund activities at the Eau Claire Cherry Select Workshop Date and Location: Festival, the National Cherry Festival and the Oceana Queen Program. The Michigan Cherry Committee also participates in the Horticulture Show, the Farm and Orchard Show, the o Grayling Holiday Inn 0 Lansing Holiday Inn Michigan State Fair, and the Michigan Harvest Gathering. According to the Michigan Grayling, Jan. 30 Lansing, Feb. 4 Department of Agriculture, ballots will be mailed to all growers on Jan. 17, 1992. Ballots must be returned to the department and postmarked no later than Jan. 31, 1992. L .J ",,,,.. '.... , »;!i{P' ~amdCla",.,. maica~ ' f"'~ Cost: $ ~359 PfM..,person. Thi~package includes everything ~nder the s~You will ~tay 7 ni.ghts at the Jamaica Ho~el, which has been called one of the Super club resorts. ThiS hotel mcludes th~meal$HOIly, bar drinks, use of all sports facilities including instruction, four tennis courts, shopping shuttle and sight-seeing tours. It is located on the white sand beach at Runaway Bay. Round trip air- fare from Detroit is included. Spa Week in Mexico Cost: $ 1052 per person. Pamper yourself at the Hotellxtapan Delasal, a world known Spa facility that features deluxe accommodations. Included are 8 days of full spa facilitie$ like three meals daily, unlimited facials, massages, manicures and exercise programs. Airpart transfers are approximately Quaint Quebec City $72 per person - one way and gratuities are not included for spa week. This is a very special package for very special peaple. Pomper yourself! Cost: $459p,er person. February-March 1992 you can travel to Quebec City Via Rail and stay at the charming Le Chateau Frontenac Hotel. This package includes 5 days at the hotel plus round trip reilfrom Cancun, the Jewel of the Caribbean Windsor. You can travel everyday except Frid?}' and Sunday. This is a very pOP\llar ppckage Cost: $569 per person. and has limited seating, so call earlyl Cancun is a great warm weather destination because of it's 14 miles of beautiful beaches and the friendliest people in the world. The Playa De Oro Hotel has a great special starting Bahamas Weekend January 1 through January 24th, 1992. This package includes round trip airfare from Detroit, Cost: $414 per person (Add $40 per person for ocean view room) hotel for 7 days, airport transfers, baggage and handling service, hotel tax and a Welcome All rates are based on double occuppncy, departure tax not inclJdecJ. reception. This hotel is known for it's great location on the beach. Cancun is the perfect get- Starting February 7th, 1992 you can book a great Bahamas Weekend at a great rate. Your a-way for anyone seeking the sun and relaxation. package indudes leaving Detroit on Friday ana staying 2 nights at the Bri~sh ColOnial Beach Hotel. ~ial charter airfare service is included so that you fly non-stop to the islands. Disney World, /t's Everyone's Favorite Vacation! This package includes anything that you prefer at a member only discount. You can pick the number of nights you want to stay, you can stay on the Disney grounds or off premise, and Cost: $628 p;er person. you have the option to Ayor drive. Farm Bureau has admission tickets available. Customize One of tHe best packages this year is London. Round trip airfare from Detroit on British your Disney Vacation just the way you want, and still get a great di$Count! Airways, 6 nights at the Travistock Hotel, transfers from the airport, taxes and continental breakfaSt. The Travistock Hotel is located in rile Bloomsbury area and all roorps have a Note: All packages are subject to availability. Prices are subject to change or variation for 1991 .1992 g private bath, IV and radio. This trip starts Jan. 3rd and expires March 31, 1992. London is For men in{omkdion on how ~ booIc your GETAWAY CAll 1~748-0289 or 517.339-4390 famous fnr their theatre, restauronts, sight seeing and mast of all ry, ... MICHIGAN • , •• FARM BIJREAIJ