MICHIGAN FJ\RM NE~WS ,.•. ,,,. ""CH,eIlN FIIR'" BUREIIU January 30, 1996 Vol. 73, No.2 u.s. economic outlook by Lester V. Manderscheid he u.s. economy has continued to expand T during 1995 and has completed the second longest expansion period since World War II. Fur- ther economic growth is expected during 1996. While a few analysts see a recession in 1996, the average forecast is for a slow first half and slightly higher growth in the second half. An annual growth of about 2 percent after inflation is the " most common expectation. My forecast had been a little higher until the recent bad weather in the East and the prolonged budget debate in Washington reduced. The aver- age forecast now is reasonable. Growth at this rate is consistent with an increase in the Consumer Price Index of between 2.5 and 3 percent. Unem- ployment will remain near current levels. A major uncertainty is rate of economic growth in the other industrialized countries of the world. They experienced a rapid increase in in- dustrial production in 1994 before slowing in 1995. Indeed, industrial production fell on the average in Canada, Japan, the U.K. and Germany during the second and third quarters of 1995. If stagnation continues, it will be difficult for the U.S. economy to grow at a near 2 percent rate. If, - the other hand, the major industrial countries Michigan soybean sales were up about $20 million in 1995 while receipts from corn were up about urned to a 1994 rate of growth, the U.S. econo- $80 million from 1994 levels. MSU ag economist Jake Ferris expects that 1996 gross receipts for crops I y could grow at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent rate as ex- will continue to increase while livestock receipts will be relatively stable. Rising costs, however, will rts expand. likely offset the projected increase in gross income, he says. \gricultural credit ron (Mike) Kelsey and .• COVER STORY ven Hanson he last few years have seen major f1uctua- Farm bill debate and byJohnN."Jake"Ferris r tions in interest rates with a gradual 3-year decline from 1990 through 1993, and a dramatic increase in 1994, as the Federal Reserve attempt- ed to slow down the economy into a "soft land- ~on~usl.on~ont'.nue "'l ,t "l. ross cash farm income in Michigan increased to about $3.8-3.9 billion in calendar year 1995. This was about $200 million, or 6 percent, over the gross in calendar year , ing.» Apparently, they were successful- the dis- 1994 (Table 1). The crop sector contributed mainly count and prime rates stabilized in 1995 and start- Feb. 15 deadline proposed for enacting. 1949farm bill to this increase. Receipts from corn were up about T ed a gradual decline late in the year. The expecta- he only thing certain at this point in Wash- Under Freedom to Farm, annual crop set- $80 million from 1994, including increased sales from tion is for the Federal Reserve to continue to de- ington regarding the outcome of the budget aside acres would be eliminated and farmers would the large 1993 crop made in 1994 and higher prices crease rates by !4 to ~ percent early in 1996 and, and farm bill debate is the growing pressure be allowed to plant. the commodity of their choice. on the 1995 crop. Wheat grossed about $50 million depending on the trend in economic growth, for a resolution. Producers in the southern U.S. Producers would also receive a guaranteed annual over 1994 from both a larger crop and higher prices. perhaps more later in the year. have the biggest concerns, with planting already "transition" payment that would decline gradually Soybean sales were up about $20 million. A large Overall, loan demand in Michigan was essen- underway in many areas of the extreme south. over a seven-year period. apple crop, in combination with higher prices, more tially unchanged from a year earlier. A Federal At the recent American Farm Bureau annual Delegates also endorsed a letter to President than offset a sharp drop in receipts from tart cherries. Reserve Bank of Chicago survey of agricultural meeting, USDASecretary Dan Glickman said that Bill Clinton and Congress urging immediate action Gross income from livestock in 1995 was very bankers found the average loan-to-deposit ratio in Congress will need to deal with agriculture sepa- on the farm bill, calling the options of extending close to the 1994 level. Increased marketings of the Seventh District had increased to 67.3 per- rately if the budget talks remain at an impasse. He the current farm bill or reversion to the 1949 act milk about offset a small decline in price. Lower cent, the highest level since 1979. Despite recent said that a one-year extension of the current farm disastrous. prices reduced receipts from cattle and calves. declines, interest rates for farm loans remained program or enactment of a new farm bill would be Meanwhile, the Des Moines Register reported Higher hog prices helped to maintain receipts from above previous year levels. In Michigan, the real preferable to operating under the 1949 permanent recently that "eyeballs were rolling" in USDAwhen that enterprise, as was also true for eggs. estate loan rate averaged 9.73 percent, while the farm law, which he called "dysfunctional for the top USDAmanagers sat down to discuss operating Government payments to farmers were some- verage operating loan rate was 10.69 percent. modern world." under the 1949 farm bill. USDAofficials are report- what higher in 1995, attributable to 1994 disaster e Michigan rates were the highest among all Glickman did say, however, that time is quick- ed~ynot happy about implementing the act nor are payments made in 1995. Advanced deficiency pay- tates in the Seventh District. ly running out and that he would be forced to im- they clear on what is required. Although the 1949 ments made on 1995 wheat and corn crops will Continued on page 8 plement the 1949 law as of Feb. 15 to give produc- law provides high price supports based on "parity have to be returned to the government, however. ers something to work with for the upcoming plant- levels," it's not clear whether those loan rates Cash expenses also increased in 1995, particu- ing season. If that were to happen, the loan rates would apply just to producers who were raising larlyon fertilizer and, late in the year, on feed. Total would be set at .5.50 for corn and $7.82 for wheat, the crop in the 19505 or all producers currently cash expenditures were estimated to be just over effectively shutting down U.S. exports. raising the crop. $3 billion. This left net cash income at about '821 Delegates to the American Farm Bureau USDAofficials are also reportedly worried million, which was S122 million, or about 17 per- Federation's annual meeting endorsed the Freedom about owning lots of grain, since farmers would cent, over 1994. The '821 million would be about to Farm farm bill proposal and voted against likely default on their price-support loans which average for net cash farm income in the 1990s extension of the current farm program. Delegates would be set at $1.82 per bushel for wheat and (Table 1). Because of general inflation, however, also asked that tax and regulatory reform relief '5.50 for corn. The 1949 law set loan rates as a the purchasing power, while above 1994, would be be included as part of the trade-off for less govern- percent of parity, which is based on price relation- below the average for 1990-94. ment in agriculture. ships in the period from 1910 to 1914.• Continued on page 3 Michigan fruit and sugar Stock levels, world growth to White mold conference seeks industry outlook 4 dominate 1996 trade outlook ...... 9 solutions to soybean disease 12 Farm management implications Management implications New program offers risk tool 13 for crop producers 5 for livestock producers 10 Land values to show Perennial weed management 7 Dairy outlook - expect tighter gradual increase 16 1996 outlook for margins in 1996 11 production inputs 8 Sell products and services in the Michigan Farm News classifieds-Page 13 1~1~~IL11~ January 30, 1996 ting agriculture and the rest of the private sector to grow and prosper? IIEthanol carll California farmers Farm Bureau has stood clearly (and for a while, available to public push for methyl alone) in favor of spending restraints and cutbacks as bromide extension a way of downsizing government and unleashing the T he first mass-produced alternative fuel car that can be powered largely by ethanol will roll off latent productivity of our economy. Agrowing, vigor- ous private sector will do more for agricultural pros- a Ford assembly line this week, says the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA). C alifornia farmers are pushing Gov. Pete Wil~n (R) to hold a special session of the state Legis- lature early this year to prevent a threatened March perity than any government farm program. The "flexible fuel" Taurus can run on three 30 ban on the use of methyl bromide. Not that the farm bill is moot. On the contrary, typeS of fuel: straight gasoline, traditional 10 per- The Birth Defects Prevention Act of 1984 pro- one of the biggest reasons our Michigan congres- cent ethanol, or the new E-85 fuel comprised of vided chemical manufacturers until 1991 to com- sional representatives should support passage of the 85 percent ethanol. plete health studies of the fumigant. That year, a budget reconciliation package, which was ve£Oedby The NCGA, says Ford, will be able to make up five-year extension was given to the industry to President Clinton, is because of how it links new farm to 6,000 of these new Taurus models and offer them complete the studies. However, chemical compa- program provisions with significant tax and regulato- for sale to the public at the same price as a regular nies recently informed the state that they need at ry reform. The measure replaces the current farm Taurus. From the program system with a new plan that gives farmers Currently, there are 13 gas pumps dispensing least two more years to complete the studies. Jim Wells, director of the state's Department President more planting flexibility and guaranteed, but declin- E-85 in the country, up from none a year ago. of Pesticide Regulation, said his department and ing, payments for seven years. At the same time, it "We want at least 40 up and running in the next other regulators should be blamed for the delays. provides offsening estate tax and capital gains tax six to nine months," says Phil Lampert, project Budget bill important reform and health care tax deductions for farmers coordinator for the National Vehicle Coalition. State and federal regulatory agencies argued for years to determine which animal tests would be to agriculture and Olher self-employed people. Farm Bureau backs The NCGA is urging farmers and other con- best for the study, he said. When an agreement was I want £0 begin by saying thanks £0 all of you the changes in the farm program only if they are sumers to consider buying a flexible-fuel Ford. The finally reached, there wasn't enough time to per- for the support you have given me during my balanced with the tax relief provided for in the bud- group also plans to lobby federal, state and local form the study. recem recovery from open heart surgery. Your get reconciliation plan. Congress must hang tough in governments, as well as companies - especially Farmers claim that the ban will cost California prayers, cards, well wishes and phone calls have been moving the entire package. agribusinesses - to buy flexible-fuel cars for their agriculture approximately $258 million. It would an important part of my recovery process. Every- As you talk to your friends and neighbors this vehicle fleets .• also cause the state's ports, trucking companies and thing seems to be going very well, and the healing winter about the benefits of belonging to Farm Bu- other businesses involved in exports to lose mil- process appears £0 be proceeding on schedule, reau, be sure to highlight your organization's impor- lions in revenue. At present there is no available which is more than I can say for the federal budget tant role in helping to begin balancing the federal alternative to methyl bromide .• negOliations. budget. Many times, Farm Bureau has been a lone As this goes to press, it's possible that Congress voice for common sense, not just on government and the president will have reached a budget agree- spending, but also on a variety of other issues like Researchers testing USDA releases meat ment. Bur it's also likely that the standoff will contin- private property rights protection and endangered new poultry vaccine safety regulations ue for some weeks. However long it takes £0 wo~. spedes act reform. The fact that the rest of the politi- out a compromise, the fact that most Americans now' ... cal system is now catching up with Farm Bureau is a consider a balanced federal budget a realistic goal tribute to our consistent, grassroots, farmer-based G overnment researchers are experimenting and testing two new vaccines to protect poul- try against the Newcastle virus, which some experts T he Agriculture Department released four meat safety regulations to revamp and simplify the inspection process. The four rules consist of an indicates that substantial progress has been made in polides and a good reason for every Michigan farmer have said could be the biggest threat ever to domes- advance notice outlining the overall reform plans, a the way we look at government spending. to be a part of our efforts in the future. tic broiler and egg industries. final rule on product labeling, a proposal for use of Nevertheless, the ultimate question behind The two new vacdnes, one that is injected the term "low-fat" and a plan to end duplication of the budget fight goes beyond haggling over into an unhatched egg and the other that is given to Food and Drug Administration rules. amounts of expenditures. The real tussle concerns hatched birds, would be more effective and allow The agency also said it will release three other the direction of public policy on the size and cost of producers more timing flexibility for vaccination, rules in 1996, including new performance standards government. Will government continue £0 grow and according to the researchers. for some meat and poultry products, termination of claim an increasing share of the private sector? Or Jack Laurie, President The highly contagious Newcastle virus attacks prior approval of slaughter house blueprints and an j will the role of government begin to shrink, permit- Michigan Farm Bureau chickens, turkeys, parrots, cormorants, ostriches, advance notice on composition of meat products. and other wild and pet birds. In 1971, a strain of In addition, USDA is stilI in the process of IIAg in the Classroomll workshops MFB hosting Newcastle spread in Southern California, resulting in a $56 million, 11 million bird loss. developing new regulations that will radically re- form meat and poultry safety inspections. These I \ I you've f ever had an interest in teaching young - Teaching student about career opportunities The vaccines' makers are working with vac- new rules are slated for release early this year.• :/- people about agriculture, but were hesitant in agriculture cine makers in Maine and France to produce the . \ because you didn't know where to start, then _ Creating 'i\g-Citing" experiences make sure you attend one of the MFB Ag in the _ Teaching the teachers new antigens. The vaccines were developed at the FACT OF THE DAY ~.1 ~ Classroom workshops! According to MFB Promo- _ Conducting Rural Education Day for school districtS Southeast Poultry Disease Research Laboratory in tion and Education Department Chairperson Julie Chamberlain, the workshops will feature hands-on _ Tapping into school latch-key programs _ Adopting classrooms for year-long agricultural Athens, Ga.• D id you know that a recent nationwide con- sumer survey found that farmers and labels are America's most trusted sources of information activities and demonstrations that partidpants can experiences about foods? In fact, the breakdown for most credi- take back £0 their local schools. The $20 registration fee includes refresh- USDA to investigate ble information sources, according to the survey Each workshops will feature two £0 four suc- ments, lunch, lessons and materials. Reservations cessful teaching activities unique to the workshop are required at least 15 days in advance of the event Canadian potato pricing results, is the following: area including: for planning purposes. Each program starts at 9:30 a.m. and will conclude by 3 p.m. Reservation can be T he Agriculture Department announced it will investigate the pricing policies of New Brun- swick and Prince Edward Island (PEl) potato farm- made by completing the reservation form below .• ers, according to Gus Schumacher, administrator of r ~gricultu~ in-;he CI~s~;';- Workshop Re-;e;ation -;;.; -, USDA'sForeign Agricultural Service. The agency decided to review the situation Name after officials met with potato producers in Aroos. took County, in northern Maine. The farmers said Address Canadian producers are "dumping" potatoes into the U.S., pushing the price of potatoes below the Phone County cost of production. I wish to attend the following Agriculture in the Classroom workshop: The PEl Potato Board dismissed the charges, (Please check one location. Use a copy of this reservation form if you claiming potatoes are cheaper in Canada than in the wish to enroll in more than one workshop.) United States .• o Saturday, February 17, Kalamazoo, Airport Holiday Inn o Friday, February 23, Frankenmuth, Bavarian Inn Lodge o Saturday, March 16, Big Rapids, Holiday Inn and Conference Center Total number of people attending: __ x $20 per person = $ Source: Purina Mills, Inc., 1995 American Food Consumer Survey) t For more information call 800-292-2680, ext. 3213. $2 Ilgrain busterll idea wins Farmer Idea Exchange Please make checks payable to Michigan Farm Bureau and return with reservation form at least 15 days prior to the workshop date to: Michigan Farm Bureau, Promotion and Education Department. L eonard Maschino's practical invention to un- clog grain and feed bin augers is a great farm safety idea - so great that the American Farm Bu- "If I can save one life with the idea, then it's been worth everything," Maschino emphasized. The grain buster consists of two half-inch reau Federation chose Maschino's "grain buster" as bolts about five inches long and two nuts. "Simply LP~.~O~3~60, ~n~ng, ~ ~~9-84..:0 .J the first place winner in the Farmer Idea Exchange weld the nuts to the slide gate or drill two half-inch at the 77th AFBF annual meeting. holes and attach the bolts," Maschino said. "I made the grain buster for safety and labor The bolts sticking up will dislodge any foreign The Mlchlglln Farm News (ISSN:07.c3-9962) is published twice per month except in the months of November. December. June and July when only one Issue is printed. as a servke to regular members. by Michigan Farm Bureau, 7373 West savings," said Maschino, a grain producer from material that builds up over the auger by simply Saginaw Highway. lBnslng. Michigan 48917. Member subsafptlon price of $1.50 Is Induded In aMual dues of North Vernon, Ind. "It's simple, easily installed in 10 opening and closing the slide gate, he noted. The Michigan Farm Bureau regular members. Additional subsaiption fees required for mailing Mlchiglln Farm News to nonmembers and outside the continental U.S.A. Second-class postage paid at LansIng. Michigan. and additional to 15 minutes and costs only $2. More importantly, I unit will work on any bin with a slide gate. mailing offices. avoid injury. To my knowledge, there's nothing else "Since I installed the grain buster on my farm, Letten to the editor and statewide news artIdes should be sent to: EdItor. Michigan Farm News, Post Office Box on the market that performs the same task, other I not once had to enter a bin to dislodge grain 30960. Lansing. Michigan 48909-1460. POSTMASTER - Send .ctdress cNnges to: Michigan Farm BurNU. Post Office Box 30960. lansing, Michigan 4I9CJ9.8.460. than me getting in the bin with a pole." above the auger," Maschino said. "My time is money Editorial: Dennis Rudat. Editor and Business Manager. Thomas Nugent. Associate Editor. The grain buster is safe because it eliminates and I no longer waste hours in a bin with a pole. Design and Production: Jeffrey RutzIcy. Staff Contributors: Mike Rogers the need to enter a bin to unstop grain augers. "It's The grain buster dramatically reduces the risk of OffIcers: President. Jack lalrte. Cass Oty; Vice President, Tom Guthrie. Delton: Administrative Director. Chudt Burtlett ll'usurer and Chief FinanciAl Officer. Tom Parker: Secretary. WlDiam S. WIlkinson. Directors: District 1, Jim Miller. always dangerous when grain or feed are present," inhaling grain dust." COloma; District 2. BlaIne vanSickle. Marshall; District 3. Mlchaef Fusilier. Manchester; District 4. Tom Gu1hrie. Delton; Maschino said. "Each year, between 25 and 35 peo- For winning first place in the Farmer Idea Ex. District 5. Alan Gamer. Mason; District 6, Wayne Wood, Marlette; Dis1rict 7, Ride Johnson, Leroy; District 8. Richard Leac:h, Saginaw; District 9. Joshua Wunsch. Traverse Oty; DistrIct 10. Margaret Kartes. West Branch; District 11. Robert ple die of suffocation in grain bins. It takes only change, Leonard and his wife, Tina, receive one W.tlmhoff. Baraga. At-Lar~: Jack laurie. Cats Oty; Faye Adam. Snover: Jan Vosburg. Oimax; Judy Emmons. Sheridan. Promotion and Education. Brigette LHch. OlmaJC Young F..-mers. ChrIs Donbrock. Coldwater. eight seconds to become submerged in flowing year's free use of a Ford GENESIS tractor. This is the grain. I also don't run the risk of an auger injury. eighth year of the Farmer Idea Exchange program .• 1~1[~:1@JJi!J~1~11~ January 30, 1996 For more information on legislative topics in the AFBF urges action to stop Michigah Farm News, call 800.292.2680 .. flood of Mexican produce T he American Farm Bureau Federation is port surges with timely application of NAFfA provi- urging prompt use of NAFfA trade provisions sions, to develop improved reporting on the price NATIONAL ISSUE to stem a surge of vegetable imports from and volume of Mexican imports, and to consider Mexico that has sent produce prices plummeting emergency purchases of commodities such as Details of the 1995 amendments to the and threatens to devastate Florida vegetable farmers. squash, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers and egg- Perishable Agricultural Commodities Act (PACA) In a letter to Agriculture Secretary Dan Glick- plants by the USDA to help shore-up prices. man, the AFBF requested that snap-back provisions Carl B. Loop Jr., AFBF vice president and presi- P resident Clinton signed a bill amending the PACA,significantly changing PACA'soperation. Farmers who rely on PACAto enforce fair trading of PACA.Sysco Corporation was fined $1.5 million dollars by USDA late last year for failure to disclose the use of collateral fees and expenses. USDA COD- dealing with the level of imports be implemented properly and quickly. Those provisions, part of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFfA), dent of the Florida Farm Bureau, has also been urg- ing the government to act to protect Florida farmers from the influx of Mexican fruits and vegetables. He practices need to be aware of the changes. siders failure to disclose their use as an unfair trade are designed to slow imports and protect domestic contacted state and federal officials requesting inter- It's important to note what hasn't changed. practice. The law now defines what constitutes producers from dumping of foreign produce on vention on behalf of Florida vegetable producers to First, PACAcontinues to require traders to comply sufficient disclosure and USDA will probably require U.S. markets. stop the dumping of Mexican produce. with the terms of their contracts. Sellers must ship disclosure of rebates on invoices. Collateral fees and "We urge you to take immediate action to "We're talking about tomatoes, cucumbers, the quantity and quality specified in a contract. expenses can be many things, but most commonly utilize all import surge mechanisms allowed by peppers, squash, sweet corn, things like that," Loop Buyers must accept shipments that meet the con- are rebates and/or promotional allowances. For NAFfA and to begin a review of the value and vol- said. "Looking at what's coming in, we're seeing two, tract guidelines and pay promptly after acceptance. example, if a supplier has a contract with a hospital ume of Mexican produce imports on Florida pro- three, four, even as high as a 600 percent increase over Second, unlike other regulatory programs, to deliver weekly shipments of fruits and vegetables ducers," wrote AFBF President Dean Kleckner in his what was imported last year, which is a real surge." license fees from PACAbeneficiaries finance the for cost plus 7 percent, suffident disclosure means letter lo Glickman. Florida farmers recently dumped truckloads entire administration of the act. Congress provides that promotional or volume discounts must be "Dramatic changes are taking place in the of eggplants, squash and other vegetables on the no appropriations. listed on the face of the weekly invoice - an unfair volume of Mexican produce being shipped to the ground to protest dumping of Mexican produce on Third, fruits and vegetables are highly perish- trade practice as defined by USDA if it is not. U.S. during recent weeks," Kleckner added. Prices U.S. markets. Farmers also met with Glickman and able and are often sold and consumed at the retail 5. Unfair trade practices for many winter crops in Florida have been driven U.S. Sen. Bob Graham in Orlando to discuss ways of level before farmers are even paid. The new PACA It is now illegal for producers to misrepresent well below the cost of production, as Mexican pro- fighting the import surges that have hurt Florida's continues to allow farmers, brokers and other trad- the character, kind, grade, quality, quantity, size, duce crosses the U.S. border at rates 30 percent $1 billion fresh-vegetable industry. ers to market highly perishable commodities while pack, weight, condition, degree of maturity, or above last year. Florida producers have legitimate To date, Florida's winter growing season has protecting their rights in the event that a contract state, country or region of origin of any perishable concerns about Mexican imports and the perfor- not been considered a separate industry and has dispute occurs. It does this simply, without impos- commodity. It is also illegal for producers to remove mance of NAFTAsafeguards designed to deal with been precluded from obtaining relief under trade ing regulatory burdens. signs on containers if that sign contained a statement such a situation. laws designed to assist domestiC industries harmed Finally, dispute resolution without PACA signifying that the container complied with federal "The current threat to Florida agriculture from by freer trade. Graham introduced legislation re- means court action. Without PACA,growers will or state law as to grade or quality. Finally, it is now surges in Mexican imports needs to be dealt with in quiring the U.S. International Trade Commission to need to go to court to get paid. The alternative to illegal for producers to substitute in the contents of a serious and straight-forward manner," Kleckner use seasonality as a factor in determining when an PACAis expensive litigation that farmers cannot a load after it has been officially inspected. added. He urged Glickman to respond to the im- industry needs trade relief. • afford. PACAkeeps farmers out of court. 6. Misbranding Key provisions of the new law The new law limits misbranding liability solely NATIONAL ISSUES . 1. License fees to those who could have knowledge of a misbrand- Traders are still exempt if they purchase less ing and the ability to correct it. Priority issues scoreboard than $230,000 of produce in a calendar year, unless 7. Investigations The following is a look at how key Farm Bureau votes. In March, the House passed two companion they purchase jobbing quantities from someone USDA investigations begin only after it re- issues are moving in Congress. bills: H.R. 1022 and H.R. 926. else. Ucense fees are set at $550 plus $200 for each ceives a written complaint. USDA must then notify Balanced budget amendment - H.). Res. 1 Delaney clause - H.R. 1627, which includes branch operated by the primary licensee in excess the company of the nature of the investigation and passed by House in late January; defeated by Senate reform of Delaney, favorably reported out of the of nine such facilities, with a cap of $4,000. JJcense must keep the identity of the person or company in March. Another vote expected this year. House Agriculture Committee; action still pending fees are set for three years. After that they can be filing the complaint confidential. This is important Line-item veto - House passed H.R. 2 in early in the House Commerce Committee. A companion increased without congressional approval. Retailers' because filing a complaint often terminates impor- February. S. 4 passed by Senate in late March. Con- bill, S. 1166, introduced in Senate; action pending. license fees are phased out over the next three years. tant business relationships. Filing fees of $60 and ference committee consideration still pending. Clean water - House passed H.R. 961, Clean 2. Slow pay $300 for informal and formal complaints, respec- Capital gains - Congress passed H.R. 2491, Water Act reauthorization legislation, in early May, USDA now has the authority to assess civil tively, become a permanent part of the law. the Balanced Budget Act of 1995, in November, Markup ofS. 851, which specifically targets the Sec- penalties, not to exceed $2,000 for each violation or What Is ....... 7 which includes a capital gains tax exemption tion 404 wetlands program, is expected in a Senate each day the violation continues. Under the old law, 1. The biII does not address first lien treatment in increase. Bill still being negotiated by Congress subcommittee. the only action USDA'could take against slow pay/ bankruptcy cases for growers who have filed and the White House. Private property - House passed H.R. 925 in no pay was either license suspension or revocation. valid trust notices. A recent court case clouds a Estate taxes - H.R. 2491 includes an increase March. Senate floor action on S. 605 expected. As a result, slow pay was rarely, if ever, enforced grower's right to trust assets of a buyer should in the estate tax exemption and targeted relief Health insurance - H.R. 831, which increased because of the severity of the sanction. Now, USDA that buyer file for bankruptcy. for family businesses. Bill still being negotiated by the deduction to 30 percent, signed into law by has the ability to penalize slow pay/no pay with 2. The bill does not extend protection to transactions fines, although it is not yet clear the process they Congress and White House. President Clinton in mid-April (P.L. 104-7). H.R. involving Puerto Rico and other U.S. territories. will use to determine slow pay violations. 3. The bill does not extend protection to cut flow- Risk assessment/cost-benefit analysis - 2491 - which would increase the deduction to 50 3. Trust provisions ers. AFBF board action supports the inclusion of S. 343, the Comprehensive Regulatory Reform Act percent - still being negotiated by Congress and For licensees, trust benefits are preserved cut flowers under PACAprotection. of 1995, failed to pass Senate after three cloture the White House .• merely by including a trust rights statement on the While the bill misses some key points, it does invoice. There is no need to prepare and send trust address several Farm Bureau concerns. First is the STATE ISSUE notices to USDA and the buyer. For non-licensees, a ability to enforce slow pay/no pay. trust notice must still be prepared and sent to the Second is the preservation of the trust without Funding for roads and bridges buyer in the time frames required under the old law. However, non-licensees do not need to send a having to file a trust notice. While non-licensees must still file, it does remove a significant burden for licensed T he proposal unveiled by the bipartisan Work- ing Group on Transportation Funding and Reform would eliminate the 6 percent sales tax on tion plan proposes a number of reforms aimed at making sure transportation dollars are spent efficiently. trust notice to USDA anymore. growers, who now only need to include a trust state- 4. Rebates ment on their invoices. Finally, the new law ends a motor fuel and convert it to a 6-cent -per-gallon tax MFBposition: Michigan Farm Bureau sup- The new PACAalso adds a subsection defining contentious, year-long debate over whether we need earmarked for transportation. In addition, the mo- ports this proposal, which would increase the sufficient disclosure of collateral fees and expenses a seller protection law at all. While additional fine- tor fuel tax would be boosted by 4.5 cents a gallon amount of money available for road and bridge (rebates). The use of collateral fees and expenses is tuning is needed, the new PACArepresents improve- and the diesel fuel discount would be eliminated. maintenance and construction. one reason why retailers/wholesalers sought repeal ments for growers of perishable commodities .• In addition to increasing taxes, the transporta- MFB contact: Tim Goodrich, ext. 2048 .• 1995 Michigan farm income and economic outlook Continued from front page generate much different receipts from these com- posed a 3-year time frame for these repayments. $815 million, about the same as in 1995. This could The outlook for 1996 is similar to that for modities in 1996 compared with 1995. Higher feed The projected government payments in Table 1 for be enhanced by as much as $90-100 million under 1995. Gross receipts from crops will likely continue costs are likely to reduce net returns from these 1996 reflects one-third of farmers' obligation for the proposed new farm legislation being debated as this to increase and receipts from livestock will be rela- enterprises. total refund. article is being written .• tively stable. Rising costs, however, will likely offset At this writing, the farm program for 1996 Payment to farmers under the Conservation the projected increase in gross income. Govern- crops had not been determined. If the 1990 pro- Reserve Program will continue at about S 18 million Table 1- CItsh fann II'tCOIfM In ment payments remain a question mark. gram is extended to 1996 crops, deficiency pay- in 1996. No disaster payments are programmed and Mlchlp"* 199().96 (Million $) Sales of 1995 crops in 1996 should be notice- ments would likely be nil, assuming U.S. average other program costs will be minor. Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 19941995*1996* ably higher than sales of 1994 crops in 1995. This price received for wheat is above $4 per bushel and The major question remaining is how a new Gross cash income will be particularly the case with corn, wheat, soy- on corn above $2.75. While there would be no set- farm program, such as "Freedom to Farm" or"Agri- Farm marketings beans, potatoes and apples. With no set-aside on asides, farmers in the programs would be required cultural Market Transition" might affect Michigan Crops 1,745 1,936 1,887 1,960 2,009 2,210 2,449 corn, 1996 acreage wiIl likely increase and, with to stay within their base acreages (for benefits other farm income. Deficiency payments to Michigan livestock 1.417 1,288 1,310 1,368 1.410 1,398 1,394 average weather, a larger crop would be expected. than deficiency payments). Govemment farmers under the Feed Grain and Wheat Programs payments 169 124 142 241 102 118 8 u Corn prices are likely to continue strong on the In the past, participation rates have been rela- have averaged about SlID million on 1990-94 crops. Farm-related 1996 crop, and above the S2.75 per bushel target tively high with 65-70 percent of the base acreage in Under the Agricultural Market Transition Program, income no. ill 1Q6 .1.2! m ill ~ price that has been established in the farm program wheat in the program in Michigan and 75-80 percent the first year might involve direct payments just Total 3.460 3,484 3.447 3,693 3,640 3,851 3,981 in recent years. Returns from 1996 wheat and soybean of the corn base on participating farms. Of course, under $100 million (without including refunds to Cash ex- crops should also be well above average. Odds would with the recent market price levels on corn and the government on 1995 advance payments). Other penses 2,532 2,663 2,638 2,817 2,941 3,030 3.166 favor gross receipts from 1996 crops of dry beans, wheat, participation rates under continuation of the possible effects on farm income would be the in- Net cash income sugar beets and potatoes to be above the returns 1990 Farm Program would be expected to decline. creased flexibility in plantings, which would be diffi- Actual $928 821 809 876 699 821 815 from the 1995 crops. This would also be tf\le with Michigan farmers received about S6 million in cult to measure at this time. 1995 $1,083 919 879 924 719 821 790 tart cherries, although the gross from the 1996 apple advance deficiency payments on their 1995 wheat Without a new farm program, gross cash farm .Estimated lor 1995 ald IorlaSllor 1996. .. AsslJneS re(laylllelt 01 one-ll1ird ollhe delIcIency payments rmde on 1995 crop may not match the income from the 1995 crop. crop and $32 million on their 1995 corn crop. These income in Michigan is projected to be near S4 bil- wta Dllml crops ald a anlrmion 0I1he 1990 F;m Progrcrn. Prices and production of milk, cattle, hogs and amounts will have to be repaid to the government, Sollee: MIch~ IqlculltJaI SlaIsliCS ServIce. M~ Oepmm 01 lion in 1996, with cash expenses between $3.1-3.2 IqlcuRlle. in! E(OI'OOJc Research SEmce. USDA-a 1~94. eggs in Michigan are f)ot likely to change enough to but Secretary of Agriculture Dan Glickman has pro- billion. The result is net cash farm income near IW~: I@;JIJ ~ I~'l::t'if0 January 30, 1996 Michigan fruit industry outlook by Donald Ricks perform on a number of quality aspects to competi- increase average yields per acre. Appl- tively serve customer needs. Future price and net returns to cherry growers Michigan's 1995 apple crop was the largest Demand for processing apples in Michigan will depend upon the industry's success in achieving ever, with overall quality of the crop rated outstand- has been trending upward in recent years as well. a combination of several industry goals. These include ing, due to favorable weather, the impact of modern The growth in processing volume has been espe- expanding demand (both in the U.S. and in export technologies and management practices. Demand dally notewonhy for canning apples, which are markets), new uses of cherries, a supply-demand and market prices have been strong as well for the primarily processed into applesauce. The trends for balance, stable supplies from year-to-year, quality 1995 crop for both fresh and processing, providing increasing demand for Michigan apples for process- improvement and effective pricing arrangements. the Michigan apple industry an unusually favorable ing are expected to continue in the future. s..et t11lmes combination of very large production, high quality Michigan's acreage of apple varieties, as re- The 1995 orchard survey shows that sweet and strong prices all in the same year. poned in the 1995 orchard survey, are shown in cherry acreage decreased slightly (by 6 percent) The recently published 1995 Michigan Frnit Table 1. Red Delicious remains, by far, the top vari- from the previous orchard survey in 1991. The Orchard Survey shows stable apple acreage in the ety, followed by Jonathan, Golden Delicious, Rome, three top sweet cherry varieties in Michigan are state. Nevenheless, Michigan's apple production is McIntosh and Ida Red. The varieties that had the now Gold, with 2,050 acres; Emperor Francis, with expected to continue to trend upward (along with annual fluctuations) as yields per acre continue an increasing trend related to the modern orchard largest increases in acreage since the previous or- chard survey include Empire, Jonagold, Golden Delicious, Gala and Fuji. "- ........... 1,540 acres; and Napolean, with 1,450 acres. Plum acreage in Michigan has declined to low planting systems and other improved technologies. 'IWt a..ntes levels, with a decrease of 27 percent since the 1991 Along with an increasing supply trend, demand Economic conditions in the tart cherry orchard survey. Michigan's plum acreage, according for Michigan apples has been expanding for both industry were extremely challenging in 1995. The to the latest 1995 survey, is now less than 50 per- fresh and processing markets. Demand for fresh industry produced one of the largest crops in histo- cent of the amount that existed in 1986. Michigan apples has been aided by high performance ry with substantial surpluses of on-tree supplies. Pear acreage also declined somewhat accord- on quality as Michigan growers, packers and shippers Consequently, market prices have been very low. ing to the 1995 survey. Michigan's pear acreage has other hand, with larger yields per acre, less acres continue to modernize and gear up to effectively Although Michigan's tart cherry acreage de- decreased by 15 percent since 1991. There are now are needed to produce a similar level of production. provide the high quality demanded in the market. creased slightly (down 6 percent) from the previous 1,100 acres of pears in Michigan and only 32 grow- Blueberries are an increasingly important fruit This involves modernization of packing hous- orchard survey, production capacity remains high as ers who have 10 acres of pears or more. crop in Michigan, with significant growth in acreage, es and orchards, as well as overall commitment to demonstrated by the large crop in 1995. This is ...... MIdI.... FI'IIIt .... ....., while grapes have experienced gradual recent quality by all industry segments. Future demand for related to the fact that the bulge of plantings which Michigan tree fruit acreage is increasingly growth in acreage that is up 6 percent since 1986.• fresh Michigan apples in the competitive U.S. and were made during the late 1970s and early 1980s concentrated in apples, since apple acreage is stable are now mostly at highly productive ages. In addi- - with expanding production - while acreage of world markets will depend, in part, upon how well the Michigan industry continues to progress and tion, other modern technologies have tended to other tree fruits have declined gradually. On the Dietary guidelines available he Agriculture Department, in conjunction . Michigan sugar outlook situation, the Secretary of Agriculture increased the 1995-96 tariff-rate-quota (TRQ) for raw cane sugar by T with the Health and Human Services Depart- ment, released the fourth edition of the nutritional by John N. "Jake" Ferris creased from about 25 cents per pound in August 331,000 short tons (about 25 percent). Even with this guide, Nutrition and Your Health: Dietary Guide- ugar beet acreage continued to expand in (about the same as the year before) to over 29 cents increase, the projected supply of 11 million tons and lines for Americans. The publication is used by S Michigan in 1995, with 190,000 acres harvested. Yields were below average, however, as a new prob- in December, about 1.4 cents above December 1994. The market strength can be traced to deterio- total use of9.8 million tons will result in ending stocks of 1.2 million tons, 12.1 percent of use. This dietitians, nutritionists and other health profession- als, as well as the government, to set school lunch lem emerged - root aphids. This insect not only ration of crop conditions not only in Michigan, but compares with 12.5 percent at the end of 1994-95. guidelines. affected the volume, but reduced the sugar content in other parts of the country as well. U.S. sugar beet The USDAwill continue to monitor import require- Although the report closely follows previous as well. Total sugar beet production was about the production is expected to be down 10 percent from ments and adjust the TRQ accordingly. recommendations for lowering consumption of fat, same as in 1994 at 3,040 thousand tons, but the sugar 1994. With a slight drop in cane sugar production, Sugarbeet acreage in Michigan in 1996 will be saturated fat, sodium and sugar, it includes new rec- output could be down as much as 10 percent. total sugar output is estimated to be down 5.5 per- about the same as in 1995, or a little larger. With nor- ommendations relating to exercise, vegetarian diets Panially offsetting lower sugar production will cent from 1994. mal weather and a reduction in insect problems, the and alcohol consumption. Also underscored by the be stronger prices. Midwest beet sugar prices in- Reacting to the tightening supply-demand 1996 crop and beet sugar output should be well above report is the importance of a diet rich in fruits, vege- 1995 levels. The stronger market price on sugar pro- tables and grain products and a varied diet that jected into 1996 and higher sugar content should includes foods from each of the five food groups, result in higher sugarbeet prices on the 1996 crop .• including meat, fish, dairy, eggs and poultry products. The new edition stresses the importance of Serving Michigan rfilMF~ Ll!J RADIO NETWORK Farm Families is Our Only Business Tractor sales rising slowly otal shipments of farm-type wheel tractors exercise, claiming that Americans should exercise moderately for 30 minutes almost every day. A diet high in grain products and produce, but low in fat and cholesterol is encouraged. "Moderate" intake of sodium, salt and sugar also is urged. Since its beginning in 1971, Michigan Farm Radio Network's only objective has been to serve Michigan's farm families. This dedication to serve agricul- T in the U.S. increased in November to 7,911 units, compared with 7,809 in November 1994, To order a single copy of the guidelines, send your name, address and 50 cents to the Consumer ture is shared by 29 local radio stations in Michigan. Through these sta- says the Equipment Manufacturers Institute, a Information Center, Department 378-C, Pueblo, CO tions, Michigan Farm Radio Network provides the latest in market analysis, trade group. 81009. The publication is also available on the home weather and news to Farm Bureau members daily on the following stations: Year-to-date tractor shipments total 99,700 page of the USDA'sCenter for Nutrition Policy and Station City Frequency Morning Farm Noon Farm units, up 2.1 percent from a year ago, says the Promotion at http://vvww.usda/usdalfcslcnpporat 1490 5:45 am 11 :50 am Chicago-based institute .• the HHS home page at http://vvww.os.dhhs.gov .• WABJ Adrian WATZ Alpena 1450 5:30 am 11:30 am WTKA Ann Arbor 1050 6:05 am 12:05 pm WLEW Bad Axe 1340 6:30 am 12:50 pm Don't Miss Our WHFB Benton Harbor 12:30 pm ••Building Value Days" WKYO Caro 1360 6:15 am 12:15 pm WKJF Cadillac 1370 5:55 am 11 :20 am February _ 23, 24, 199 WTVB Coldwater 1590 5:45 am 12:20 pm .,:00 A &:00 WDOW Dowagiac 1440 6:05 am 12:15 pm WGHN Grand Haven 1370/92.1 5:45 am 12:15 pm WPLB Greenville 1380 6:15 am 11:45am WBCH Hastings 1220 6:15 am 12:30 pm WCSR Hillsdale 1340 6:45 am 12:45 pm WHTC Holland 1450 12:15 pm WKZ.O Kalamazoo 590 5:15 am WLSP Lapeer 1530 7:20 am 11:50 am WOAP Owosso 1080 6:15 am 12:30 pm WHAK Rogers City 960 12:15pm WSJ St. Johns 1580 6:15 am 1.2:15 pm WMLM St. Louis 1540 6:05 am 12:20 pm WSGW Saginaw 790 5:55 am 12:20 pm WMIC Sandusky 660 6:15 am 12:45 pm WCSY South Haven 940 12:15 pm WKJC Tawas City 104.7 12:45 pm WLKM Three Rivers 1510/95.9 6:15 am 12:15 pm Receive two tree --Field Jackets ••with the purchase 01 any WTCM Traverse City 580 5:55 am 11:20 am new Morton Building. 800-447-7436 Watch for specia price ad f1i~rsin au area or e * Station signs on at different times during the year. Morning farm times change contact: ~Olr focal tv1orton Suil constru:tion with the sign-on times. MORTON center for details. All Morton Sui di~ will reflect ** *** Station airs various farm reports between 5:30 and 6:00 am. Station airs various farm reports between 12:00 and 1:00 p.m. BU ILDI NGS P. O. Box 399. Morton. / L 6/550 special sae pridrrJ Sale ends February 24lt1. 't996. o 1996 Monon BuikJinll'. Inc. Call Now! Some stations carry additional market reports throughout the market day. fWI~~I~'I~~ January 30, 1996 Farm management implications for crop producers by Ralph E. Hepp the good years, so top managers will strengthen the M ichigan crop producers start 1996 firm's finandal position, allow for increased finan- with large inventories of commodities dal reserves and assume only those risks that can on hand at relatively high prices. The be managed. record yields of corn and soybeans, and respectable Now is a good time to review the strategies, outputs of other cash crops, along with excellent mission and objectives for the business, and bring crop prices at the end of the year, resulted in good quality management decision-making rules and earnings and enhanced cash positions for crop guidelines into capital replacement dedsions. The operations. The higher level of working capital, increased variability of net returns, due to the risk current assets less current liabilities, and stronger and uncertainty of market and weather conditions, financial positions at the beginning of the year, pro- will demand better financial management tools and vide opportunities for making capital purchases and techniques in the management of crop farms. advance payments on debts. Continue to follow best management practic- The improved net returns per acre in 1995 es in applying production inputs, negotiating land should continue into the current year because the rental agreements and finding the best prices for liquidation of inventory of carryover stocks pro- crop supplies. Crop farming is a competitive busi- vides an excellent cash flow base for the first part of ness and managers cannot relax their strategy of the year. With normal yields in 1996 and continua- maintaining a low-cost operation if they want to tion of improved prices over previous years, the obtain respectable profits from the operation. businesses should end the year with higher gross Evaluate the crop rotation, given the shift in returns per acre than 1995. Increased prices of returns from various crops, but the current favorable many production inputs will put a damper on net situation for some commodities may not hold in the returns, but ample supplies of inputs and good long-run. Therefore, don't destroy long-standing buying practices should cushion the impact on production and marketing relationships that have residual returns and net farm income in 1996 ing debts or enlarging the asset position, so the oper- with the current income opportunities, while at the been established over the years just to capitalize on a should be very good. ation achieves greater scales of economies and effi- same time recognizing the potential risks oflower short-term change in market conditions .• Top managers will use the favorable financial ciendes in future years. They will revise their strate- outputs and prices, which could depress returns. situation to strengthen the balance sheet, by reduc- gies in marketing, finance and operations to deal We all know that the down years will follow MSU's Agriculture andNatural MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY HYBRID TRIALS Resources Weekruns Grand Traverse Hybrid Yield Hybrid Delta Yield Hybrid Alpena Yield Hybrid Huron Yield March 2-9 DK385 DK412 150.0 DK385 140.5 DK412 17.7 ton 17.7 ton DK385* DK412* 165.4 168.9 DK442 DK446* 141.9 154.1 F rom growing chestnuts commerdally to an introductory short course on wildlife toxicology - that's the range of topics planned DK442* 152.3 DK442* silage 20.2 ton DK442* 161.7 DK471 * DK474 162.9 146.5 DK493 * 159.6 for Agriculture and Natural Resources (ANR)Week, DK527* 165.3 March 2-9 at Michigan State University. 'i\pproximately 80 educational programs, Mason meetings and other activities will take place during Hybrid Saginaw the eight-day event," says Sandi Bauer, ANRWeek DK385 Hybrid Yield program coordinator. DK442 DK442 156.0 Programs on the environment will include DK446 DK471* 167.1 sessions on wildlife, forests, wetlands and similar DK471* DK474 * 166.0 topics for grade school and high school teachers; DK474* DK493* 171.3 workshops on fisheries education, waterfowl man- DK493* DK527* 185.2 agement, pheasant and wild turkey habitat, and stream, inland lake and fisheries management; and DK527* DK546 171.0 a day-long session on forest investment. Outdoors-oriented programs will deal with non-game wildlife management, turkey hunting, foraging in the forest for food, growing historic Hybrid Yield apples, and growing and selling herbs. DK385* 165.4 Agricultural programs will include a national symposium on alfalfa production, and sessions on DK442* 181.6 animal manure management, community and or- DK471* 170.0 ganic food production, beekeeping for novice and DK493* 185.6 experienced beekeepers, and dairy goat manage- DK527* 191.4 'ment. There will also be a program on sustainable Monroe field crop production, and sessions for horse own- Hybrid Yield ers and for people interested in starting a small Kent DK493 192.8 poultry flock or rearing champion rabbits. Hybrid Yield Cass DK512 192.9 Other offerings include a day-long program on DK471* 175.8 Hybrid Yield Hybrid Yield DK527 190.5 human nutrition, a workshop on bed-and-breakfast DK474* 166.1 DK493 156.0 DK527 155.8 DK546* 195.4 operations, the 1996 outlook for Michigan recre- DK493* 179.3 DK546 175.7 DK546 164.9 DK560* 199.9 ation and tourism industries, a conference on DK527* 196.6 DK560 161.3 DK560 157.7 DK569* 195.3 home-based businesses, and the annual meeting of DK546* 187.9 DK569 173.7 DK569 162.1 DK580 203.1 the Michigan Barn Preservation Network. Irr~ed The MSU President's Luncheon, which honors three Distinguished Service to Agriculture awardees Hybrids noted by an asterik (e) are not significantly different from the highest yield in the table. each year, will take place Thursday of ANRWeek. All of these hybridS are evaluated by MSU to be better than the average yields in 1995 trials. The recipients will be Don Fedewa, Michigan Agri- cultural Statistics Service; Ron Stebbins, Michigan This listing includes only summary data from the published yield trials. A complete copy of Agribusiness Association; and Jack Knirk, of Quincy. MSU Yield Trials is available from your local Extension office or your DEKALBDSM. TIckets are $15 each and can be ordered by calling (517) 355-6580. Details of ANR Week are in a free guidebook available from the MSU Extension county office. Free copies can also be obtained from the MSU Bulletin Office, lOB Agriculture Hall, MSU, East lansing, MI 48824-1039 .• For more Information about DEKALB'sPackage of Hybrids that will make you the most profit, contact your local DEKALBDealer or call 1-800-833-5252. [3 a@'J:fi!) ~ J~'ll January 30, 1996 1~11~ 1111 WHEAT Sheet, pretty much tells the story. Crush remains Seasonal Commodity Price Trends strong due to oil demand and animal numbers. Corn Soybeans Wheat - - - f f f H alfwaythrough the 1995-96 wheat marketing year, prices continue to be strong, due to a combination of a relatively poor 1995 wheat crop Exports are projected to run just below last year, despite higher prices and a good South American crop last spring. Hogs - f and good demand. Also, there is the likelihood that The projected ending stocks figure is very low Cattle - f wheat prices will be strong in a historical sense and it is not clear if soybean prices have gone high Index: .. = stable prices; f = higher Prices; £ = 1o'N'ef' through the rest of 1996, but probably not at the Jim Hilker, Department of Agricultural enough to ration demand, but the recent highs prices; TP = topping; BT = bottoming; 7 = unsure Economics, Michigan State University recent high levels. Whear prices tend to peak in the probably approached the needed level, given a December-February period. normal crop in 1996. The fact that we still have to CORN As shown in the Supply;Demand Balance go through two weather scenarios, South America Sheet for Wheat (Table 2), the 1995 crop was small- and the U.S., before this marketing year ends, ist already clear 1996 will produce some high ethanol use. The other puzzle is the extremely high I corn prices. It is also likely to provide some vola- tile corn prices. And, if we have a good growing export shipments and sales to dare, both ahead of a year ago. Are importers hoarding ir just in case we er than 1994 and all of the use categories are up, other than feed, despite higher prices. This leads to a low ending stocks number and the high average brings to mind a word we have seen before - vola- tile. Looking at a reasonable projection for the season, it may well produce some much lower corn have another poor growing year, or has the eco- price shown. Exports have been particularly strong. 1996-97 soybean marketing year (as shown in Table prices before the year is out. We just came out of a nomic growth in the Pacific Rim increased demand The Winter Wheat Planting Report, released by 3), you can see things are likely to stay interesting. year where we had plenty of corn, but we also had to the point they will buy as much as last year at the USDA,showed winter wheat plantings for the Even with excellent soybean prices, it's hard to see very strong demand. Despite a small 1995 corn much higher prices? 1996 crop up 3 million acres, or 7 percent, which soy acres going up much with the strong corn pric- crop, due to the 7.5 percent set-aside and the rela- Even after a good year, China continues to accounts for the increased acres planted in my 1996- es; but double-cropping should raise it some. How- tively poor yield, as shown in Table 1, the demand import corn versus the export role they played just 97 projections. Michigan seeded 700,000 acres to ever, the expected larger production will be offset for corn shows little signs of letting up. Thus, we a couple of years ago. Exports may drop like a rock wheat, up 11 percent. And, while dryness in the almost completely by lower beginning stocks. Use are building up to a very tight stock situation unless at the first sign of a good growing year, but by then Southwest has probably hurt yield potential, it is too shouldn't vary much, which leads to strong, but not something gives - and eventually something will. we will have already exported a good chunk. early to project much below a trend yield. However, as strong, prices again next year. The best way to look at the 1996 outlook for The bottom line for 1995-96 is that it does not the considerably larger 1996 production forecast is As we look at our pricing opportunities this corn is to study the SupplylDemand projections for yet appear prices have gone high enough to ration offset somewhat by several factors. Beginning stocks winter for the 1996 crop, we need to consider the the 1995-96 and the 1996-97 crop years. The 1995- demand; but they will, and then it will be downhill \villbe down and summer feed use will likely be up, possibility of a 1994 yield and prices dropping back % projections, shown in Table 1, are from the from there unless we have poor growing conditions despite strong wheat prices, due to the likelihood of into the mid $5.00 range, as well as a several bushel USDAand incorporate the final crop production - thus, the high likelihood of volatile prices. Michi- even stronger corn prices. Exports will probably be below trend yield that could keep prices over $7.00. numbers, the latest quarterly stocks report, export gan's 1995 average corn yield of 115 bushels per in the same range as the last couple of years. sales to date and animal number projections in an acre, only 2 lower than the 1994 record, bodes well This means low ending stocks for a second effort to forecast total use versus supply. The 19%- for Michigan corn farmers. Nothing like decent CATTLE year in a row. While the stocks-to-use ratio will be 97 projections are my analysis of the likely situation yields and good prices. come this fall. The projected ending stocks of 507 million The 1996-97 corn marketing year, as shown in Table 1, is assuming all of the 7.5 percent set -aside, up a bit from this year, it should still keep prices near or above 14.00. However, as with corn, when stocks are this tight, prices could be volatile. B eefproduction in 1995 was up 3 percent from 1994 and is expected to increase another 3 percent in 1996. First quarter production is expected bushels for the 1995-% crop year would be tighter plus a couple more million acres coming back into to be up 4 percent, second quarter up 2 percent, and than we have ever seen and is an indicarion we have corn production, along with a trend yield. The use SOYBEANS the last two quarters up 3 percent. As we look into not yet reached a price which will ration supply. In numbers show a rebound that would come from 1997, it will likely be up another 2-3 percent, given order to meet this very tight ending stocks figure, lower prices. At first glance, the feed use number The 1995 soybean yield was the third highest on the 1995 calf crop and the expected 19% calf crop. the USDAhad to cut projected feed use by over 900 may appear low, but it assumes some cutback in • record and the market is acting like we have a The brightest picture in the beef sector is million bushels, or 17 percent. The problem with livestock due to high prices the year before. This short crop - compared to 1994, we do. Once again, exports. While it is only 7-8 percent of production at rhat is animal numbers appear to be as large or middle-of-the-road estimate brings prices down demand is playing a big role in the price picture. present, it is growing rapidly and is expected to larger rhan last year. And, while feeding rates can go sharply from both today's levels and what can be Supply is down nearly 9 percent, but use is project- continue in a growth pattern. Beef exports were up down, it is hard to see how they will be lower than forward priced today. While it would not take a ed to be down only 4 percent, comparing the 1994- over 15 percent from 1994 to 1995 and are expect- 1988-89, especially with first quarter feeding rates disastrous yield to keep prices up, a 138.6 bushel 95 and 1995-96 crop years. This is showing up in ed to grow another 15 percent in 1996. moderately strong. per acre yield like 1994 could send prices reeling prices being up 25-30 percent. Michigan averaged For the first time in my memory, exports in The USDA cut food, seed, and industrial back towards 12.00. 40 bushels per acre - a record. 1996 are projected to be larger than imports, and use for the first time in years, and that means less Table 3, the Soybean Supply;Demand Balance this trend should continue into the future. Imports are expected to stay about the same after decreas- COMMODITY PRICE TRENDS ing 13 percent from 1994. Two primary reasons for this surge in exportS are the new trade agreements ................. l'JJO which put us on a more level playing field and eco- nomic growth in the Pacific Rim. Consumption per person is expected to be 67.6 pounds in 19%, up a half-pound from 1995. Poultry consumption is expected to be up 4 pounds per capita, with 3.5 pounds from broilers. Total meat consumption in 1996 is expected to be up 5 ......... 'l91' pounds per person at a whopping 216.6 pounds . :..A Choice steer prices are projected to be down Com • March '96 .... Soybeans • March '96: : : : : : : :: 600" 11-3 per cwt. in 1996, with higher production and •I'\u' • lilt J.. .II, ~ SIp IIc\ IbI IBc .In I'\u' flpr lilt .... JIt '- Sep IIc\ IIau lee: h• competition from other meats. Thank goodness for ......•. fI'.I.5O ........... 53'.00 strong exports and a decent economy. First quarter prices are expected to be in the $65-68 range, grad- ually increasing for most of the period. Second m.oo ~ quarter prices are projected to fall in the $68-64 za.oo & range, but gradually decrease by the end of the 2IlII.00 ~ period. Third quarter prices will likely be in the low zoo. 00 ~ 160s and may even fall under $60 for a period. The 1'JZ.00 ~ lastquarter should see some rebound in prices, but ............ , 62.50 JA ...•.... " . llM.OO . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. ]1).00 ~ will be hard pressed to go over 165. Un Cattl. • Feb. '96" .,. &1.50 Soy Meal • March '96 . 17&.00 Uve Hogs. Feb. '96 ]7.00 ~ Feeder prices will remain in the pits through I'\u' • lilt Ja. J I, flit SIp Oc\ IbI Ia: .I.. I'\u' flpr lilt .... .II, Aut SIp IIc\ IIau lee: h. I'\u' .. lilt .... Jlv"" SIp IIc\ IIau lee: h. ~ the year, due to the high feed prices and a larger calf crop next fall. Projected lower feed prices will not help the situation. Hopefully, lower feed prices • ~ by fall will help some, but it will not likely get us back to profitable calf prices. The Cattle Inventory Table 2 - Wheat Table 3- Soybeans Report to he released Feb. 2 should help determine Projected Projected Hillter's Proj. Projected Projected Hillter's Proj. Projected Proj«ted Hilker's Proj. when this ship will start turning around. (Million aaes) 1tM-199S 199~1996 1996--1997 (Million aaes) 1tM-1995 199~n96 1996-1997 (Million acres) 1tM-1995 "'~1996 1996-1997 Acres set-aside/diverted 2.4 6.2 Acres set-aside & diverted 5.2 5.2 Acres planted 61.7 62.6 64 Acres planted 79.2 71.2 80 Acres planted 70.3 69.2 73 Acres harvested 60.9 61.6 63.2 Acres harvested 72.9 65.0 74 Acres harvested 61.8 61.0 64 Bu.hlarvested acre 41.4 34.9 36.7 Bu.A1arvested acre 37.6 35.8 38 , • fhere the hog sector is going is clear in the Bu.A1arvested acre 138.6 113.5 126 Stocks (million bushels) Stocks (mUlion bushels) Stocks (million bushels) Beginning stocks 209 335 190 V V long-term - production units will continue Production 2,517 2,152 2,320 to get bigger. However, it is not clear over the next Beginning stocks 850 1,558 507 Beginning stocks 568 507 86 Production 10,103 7,374 9,324 Production 2,321 2,186 2,432 Imports 5 5 5 year how that will happen. There is some consensus Imports 10 10 9 Imports 92 84 82 Total supply 2,731 2,492 2,515 over the first 2 quarters about pork production, but Total supply 10,963 8,942 9,840 Total supply 2,981 2,717 2,900 Use: the projected ranges in the last two quarters vary Use: Use: Crushings 1,405 1,390 1,380 widely. Per capita consumption will increase slightly. Feed and residual 5,535 4,600 4,800 Food 852 860 870 Exports 838 800 810 The USDAis projecting first quarter production Foodlseed & Ind. uses 1,693 1,685 1,750 Seed 89 106 100 Seed, feed &residuals 153 112 100 down 2 percent and the second quarter up 1 per- Total domestic 7,228 6,285 6,550 Feed 345 200 300 Total use 2,396 2302 2,290 cent, which fits in with the last Hogs and Pigs riepor1. Exports 2,ln 2,150 2,200 Total domestic 1,286 1,166 1,270 Ending stocks 335 190 225 ~ However, in the last 2 quarters, the USDAis project- Total use 9,405 8,435 8,750 Exports 1,188 1,225 1,200 Ending stocks, % of use 14.0 8.3 9.8 ~ ing production will be up 6-7 percent. This is higher Ending stocks 1,558 507 1,090 Regular loan rate $4.92 $4.92 Total use 2,474 2,391 2,470 ~ than the farrowing intentions numbers would indio Ending stocks, % of use 16.6 6.0 12.5 Ending stocks 507 430 U.s.season IIverage 386 ~ cate, even after continuing the trend in pigs per litter. Regular loan rate $1:89 $1.89 Ending stocks, % of use 20.5 16.1 17.4 Farm price,$Ibu. $5.48 $7.05 $6.45 Regular loan rate $2.58 ~ My analysis would suggest 2-4 percent larger num. u.s.season average $2.58 S hers. It all depends on how fast smaller producers Farm price,$lbu. $2.26 $3.20 $2.45 U.s.seuon average ~ drop out relative to how fast larger units grow. Farm price, Sibu. $3.45 $4.40 $3.95 ~ Continued on page 7 Irffi II: I @Tfi!] ~ I~'I::t~ January 30, 1996 ~~d _ Perennial weed management ,~-"I. ~•• S.,."....... ~l.J I!f.'"'.It. '18;>S..... •...;;,!!i '~1 ~ ~J!~ ..... J perennial weeds present unique challenges to farmers. Control of these weeds must be may change. This will be especially true when Roundup-Ready soybeans are widely available. contrast, bulbous, tuberous, and creeping perenni- als are much more tolerant of tillage and many can -!!!!!!?' approached differently than for annual weed The most important crop in a rotation for pe- survive even in frequently tilled sites. It is very diffi- spedes due to their vegetative reproduction charac- rennial weed control is winter wheat. With most pe- cult (often impossible) co eliminate these weeds teristics. Understanding these characteristics is the rennial weeds, fallherbicide application is the single with tillage alone. first step in developing a successful control strategy. most effective chemical treatment. Winter wheat pro- Chemical. Translocated herbiddes (both Pe--.... w.ds: ......, vides the ideal environment for fallherbicide applica- selective and non-selective) are valuable tools for Perennial plants live for three or more years tions. The perennial weeds will be cut off during weed control. The most effective herbiddes vary and can be divided into two general groups: (1) wheat harvest and will then have ample time to regrow among perennial weeds. Herbicides such as Round- by James J. Kells, herbaceous perennials (plants that die back co the co a suitable size for treatment before they begin to up, Banvel, and 2,4-0 applied in the fallare useful in Department of ground each winter) and (2) woody perennials senesce (turn yellow) or are damaged by frost. Some controlling several broad leaved perennial weed Crop and Soil (plants with woody stems that live from year to perennial weeds, including quackgrass, Canadian spedes. To be effective, treatments must be made co Sciences, Michigan year). Woody perennial weeds include such plants thistle and dandelion, can tolerate light frosts and, actively growing, healthy, perennial weeds that are State University as brambles, brush and trees. Herbaceous perennial therefore, can often be treated after the first frost. If not under stress. Although perennial weeds are gen- weeds are much more common in field crops. perennial weed patches are left unharvested, they erally favored by no-tillage, herbicide effectiveness is Pereaalal Weeds: "-rgelllellt should be mowed shortly after wheat harvest. often greater in no-tillage since the underground There are three general methods of weed man- Mecha n ical. TIllage has a major impact on plant parts are undisturbed. Recent research in Mich- Continued from page 6 agement: (1) cultural, (2) mechanical, and (3) chemi- perennial weeds. Depending on the situation, till- igan has shown greater regrowth of hemp dogbane Pointing this out is not an effort to put down cal. Asuccessful strategy for controlling most peren- age may either increase or decrease perennial weed follmving herbicide application in chisel-plowed sites the USDAsecond half projections, but rather an nial weeds involves utilization of all three methods. infestations. TIllage may increase infestations by than in no-tilled sites. With fall applications, it is espe- effort to show there is downside risk in second half Cultural. The primary cultural practice im- moving perennial weeds to new areas of the field dally important that the field is not tilled in mid- prices relative to what futures are offering today. In the first quarter, prices should remain in the $41-44 portant to perennial weed management is crop (especially creeping perennials) or by breaking the summer or fall prior to herbicide application. range before dropping back some for most of the rotation. Herbicide options vary among crops; dormancy of underground buds, resulting in new The IPM fact sheets that describe the biology second quarter with the USDAsuggesting prices therefore, any specific weed will often be easier co shoot growth. and control strategies for 14 perennial weeds were could dip under $40. The summer quarter is where control in one crop than another. For example, Frequent tillage generally reduces perennial updated for 1996. These single-page fact sheets the questions start. The futures have offered as high wirestem muhly is easier to control in soybeans, weed infestations. Perennial weeds vary greatly in describe the biology of the weed on the front side as $53 and are still over $50. My analysis would sug- while field bindweed is easier to control in corn. Of their response to tillage. Woody perennials and and its control in soybeans, corn, small grains, and gest prices in the mid- to high $40s, and the USDA course, as new herbicides are registered, the pre- simple perennials cannot tolerate tillage and, there- spot or between-crop treatments on the back. pegs prices in the $38-42 range. Fourth quarter ferred crop for control of a specific weed spedes fore, are generally not a problem in tilled sites. In These fact sheets are available at all county MSU forecasts range from under $40 to the mid-$40s Extension offices .• with me coming in the middle of that range. Although pork exports are only 4-5 percent of total pork production, it is rapidly becoming more important and will continue co do so. European production is expected to stagnate and perhaps LAST YEAR WE FINANCED 17 MILLION ACRES, decrease and Pacific Rim demand is expected to continue growing rapidly. Again, two primary rea- ONE SQUARE FOOT AT A TIME. sons are the trade agreements giving more access and the growing economies. Pork exports surpassed imports for the first time in many, many years in 1995 and is expected co stay that way in the future. Imports are expected to stay level in 1996 with 1995 after decreasing 12 percent from 1994. Exports increased 48 percent in 1995 and are expected co increase another 15 percent this year. EGGS e Henry Larzelere gg prices during 1995 averaged about 73 cents a dozen in New York at wholesale for Grade A large white eggs in cartons, about 6 cents a dozen above the 1994 average. Feed ingredient costs in the first 6 months of 1995 averaged nearly 3 cents per dozen below the first half of 1994. In contrast, these costs during the last half of 1995 averaged about 6 cents a dozen above the last 6 months of 1994. Feed costs in 1996 will probably continue above comparable months in 1995 until the new crops in 1996 are well-known. Egg prices in the first 3 quarters of 1996 will likely average about the same as in 1995. However, in the first quarter, egg prices are expected to be nearly 10 cents a dozen above the first 3 months of 1995, with the second and third quarter of 1996 below those periods in 1995. The number of hens and pullets on farms on Dec. 1, 1995 (the latest figure available at this writing) was about the same as the comparable date in 1994. The egg-type chick hatch in the major hatch season of March, April and May could be up 5 CO 10 percent from the comparable months in 1995. This probably means egg production in 1996 will be up 1 or 2 percent from 1995. BROILERS B roiler prices, based on the wholesale 12-city average, were a little over 56 cents a pound during 1995, compared to prices in 1994 which were slightly under 56 cents a pound. Production in 1995 was about 5 percent over 1994. In 1996, pro- duction is projected during the first 9 months to be up about 6 percent from the comparable period in 1995. If this increase in production continues through the full year of 1996, prices will probably average between 55 and 56 cents for the year. TURKEYS T urkey production is expected to increase 4 percent in 1996 over 1995, continuing the 1995 production trend, which was nearly 5 percent above 1994, with prices (Midwest hens, ready-toomok, frozen, Grade A) in the major marketing season of 19954 percent above 1994. Carryover on]an. 1, 1996 was 4 percent, or 25 million pounds, above a year earlier. The net result was that consumption or disappearance of turkey in 1995 was almost 2 percent above 1994, but at high- er prices. These figures would suggest that the ma- jor marketing season in 1996 would see hen prices the same to slightly higher, averaging almost 77 cents during October-November-December 1996.• ~~~ January 30, 1996 ~~ --V'~ . ) \ Michigan --=./' Weather Summary Temperature Precipitation 12/16/95 to Observed Dev. from Actual Normal 1/15/96 mean normal (inch) (inch) Houghton 18.7 1.5 0.78 1.96 Record warmth in the Marquette 16.3 3.2 1.80 1.96 Midwest is short-lived Escanaba 27.6 -1.8 0.28 1.83 Sault Ste. Marie 12.8 -3.3 0.64 1.83 C older and drier than normal weather con- Lake City 16.8 -3.9 0.47 1.89 tinued through mid-January across much 1.89 Pellston 15.0 -4.0 0.69 of the state, with mean temperatures for Traverse City 21.6 -2.2 3.37 1.89 the past 30 days generally ranging from 1-4degrees. Alpena 16.8 -4.4 0.45 1.74 below normal. By mid-January, however, jet stream Houghton Lake 17.9 -2.8 0.55 1.74 steering currents in the upper atmosphere had Muskegon 22.9 -2.8 0.49 2.21 switched to a southwest to northeast configuration Vestaburg 18.0 -6.1 0.28 1.73 across the Midwest. This pattern change allowed mild- Bad Axe 19.2 -5.0 0.34 1.59 er air and moisture back into the state, resulting in an Saginaw 20.1 -3.9 0.59 1.59 extensive January thaw, widespread rainfall (snow in Grand Rapids 22.0 -0.9 0.49 2.41 South Bend 24.9 -0.5 1.18 2.41 sections of the Upper Peninsula), and even a few Coldwater 21.1 -4.2 0.37 1.74 thunderstorms across much of the Lower Peninsula. Lansing 20.4 -3.2 0.48 1.74 The official National Weather Service outlook Detroit 22.6 -1.7 0.48 1.87 for the upcoming weeks continues to be vague, call- Rint 20.4 -3.7 0.43 1.87 ing for equal chances ofbelow-, near-, and above- Toledo 22.4 -3.6 0.40 1.87 normal temperatures and precipitation. I expect the Observedtotals are accumulated from April 1. Normals are based on district averages. current upper air pattern to continue for at least the 1996 outlook for production inputs next few weeks, which would result in a much more variable weather pattern than that of early late De- cember and early January, with large temperature swings over the next 30-day period probably averag- by Chris Peterson likely be quite strong this year, putting even more Longer-term forces are also at work in the ing out near or slightly above normal. There will also FertIlizer upward pressure on price. The zero ARPand very chemical sector. Continued downward pressure on demand will come from environmental regulations be more frequent chances for precipitation, with totals near or even above normal .• J ust as in 1995, the greatest concerns about pro- duction inputs for 1996 arise in the outlook for fertilizer supplies. Nitrogen will continue to be strong commodity prices will increase acreage planted and, consequently, fertilizer demand. Ex- pectations for higher commodity prices for the next as more lower-use cultivation practices continue to increase. Pesticide manufacturers' costs will contin-- in tight supply, although some forward-thinking several years will probably keep input demand high ue to increase due to increased R&D costs and in- Agricultural credit input suppliers have adequate stocks on hand after and prices rising over the longer run. creased re-registration costs for older products. Continued from front page last year's problems. Nitrogen prices will again be CIIeadcaIs Many manufacturers continue expensive biotech- The expectation for farm borrowers in 1996 is quite high. Chemical demand and prices will be affected nology research. These forces will put upward pres- steady to declining interest rates for farm loans from The tight supply situation appears to be creat- by some of the same factors affecting fertilizer. Sup- sure on prices. Farm Credit and commercial banks. Commercial ed by several forces. First, international demand for plies will be adequate to good for most applications. Seeds farm banks and the four Farm Credit Service centers nitrogen is extremely high leading to high exports. Demand for chemicals should be strong given the Generally, even with demand likely to be quite in Michigan have money to lend. All lenders are eval- Second, domestic industrial demand remains high. zero corn ARPand the planting incentive of strong strong, corn and soybean seed supplies should be uating loans very carefully. Since credit quality is a Unlike last year, there may even be concerns about commodity prices. good with prices up only slightly. For those interest- major concern of their regulating agencies, they are phosphate supplies and prices given exceptionally With most supplies good and strong competi- ed in the newly developed biotech seeds, such as reluctant to add any marginal loans to their portfolio. strong international demand, especially from China. tion among suppliers, chemical prices are expected corn with the Bt gene or Roundup-Ready soybeans, This means borrowers must do a good job of seIling Potash supplies are good while prices will likely to be up only slightly from last year, even with the supplies are largely spoken for already, making themselves and their repayment potential to the trend upward due to strong demand. stronger demand. One. exception to this price pre- availability limited for 1996. The impact of these lender. The Farm Credit Service centers continue to Unlike last year, when a 7.5 percent corn ARP - diction may be for chemicals used-on sugar beetS new biotech arrivals on seed markets will be one of be aggressive in seeking out good farm loans .• helped moderate demand, fertilizer demand will where prices may be sharply higher. Continued on page 9 • from Farm Bureau Insurance , You receive Gold Star Service with every policy offered by the $arm c{JureauInsurance Companies. l~leearned a Gold Starfiward for our outstanding serl'ice to Michigan, the highest ~ insurance honor bestowed by thefi111erican /Parrn cfJureau /Pederation. ~'~ Our life insurance cOl11pany is rated an10ng the top 50 life insurers infirnerica by W Ward /Pinancial Group, based on safety, security, and outstandingfinancial pelfo l111ance. '" \...7 /POl"top serl'ice for all your insurance needs - life, h0l11e, auto, business, retiren1ent, ~ boat, and rnore - call your /Pan11 cfJureau Insurance agent today . ... FARM BUREAU ••• @ INSURANCE Making your future more predictable FARM BUREAU MUTUAL • FARM BUREAU LIFE • FARM BUREAU GENERAL • FB ANNUITY ri'11[3:1~ ~ 1~'1~ January 30, 1996 Stock levels, world growth to dominate 1996 trade outlook by David Schweikhardt billion in 1996, with most of this growth occurring 1996 'Trade Ch.~ in Japan, China, Taiwan and South Korea. Japan U S.agricultural exportS are expected to reach $58 billion in 1996, an increase of $3.5 billion above 1995 (Figure 1). ExportS in every major cate- remains the largest customer for U.S. agricultural exports, purchasing a projected $ 11.3 billion from the U.S. in 1996. gory of products are expected to increase in 1996. Canada will continue as the second largest Relatively low levels of world grain stocks, combined customer at $6.1 billion, and South Korea is expected with continued growth in world incomes, are ex- to replace Mexico as the U.S.'s third largest export pected to provide continued strong export demand. market at $4.4 billion. Mexico's purchases of U.S. Grain exportS are expected to increase by $1.5 food products fell by $400 million in 1995 following million in 1996, with both wheat and corn exports the devaluation of the Mexican peso in late 1994. above 1995 levels. Exports oflivestock products are Exports to Mexico are expected to increase by expected to increase by Sl.O billion in 1996 to reach SlOOmillion in 1996, reaching $3.8 billion. This level $8.8 billion. Higher volumes of red meat and poultry of exports would be $200 million higher than 1993, exports will be responsible for most of this growth. the last year before the implementation Dairy exportS, projected at $900 million, are Continued on page 12 expected to remain largely unchanged in 1996. U.S. exports of horticultural products are expected to u.s. Agricultural Trade, 1990-1995 reach SlO.3 billion in 1996, breaking the record 60 .. Exports .. Imports level of exports set in 1995 by $1.2 billion. 50 U.S. agricultural importS are expected to reach ~ III $29 billion in 1996, about $500 million less than in ~40 1996outlook for production inputs 1995. Imports of horticultural products are expect- ed to increase by $200 million. Imports of animal 'a () 30 VI c:: Continued from page 8 expanding rapidly into custom appliance. o products are expected to decline by $500 million, == 20 the very critical market trends to watch over the "Smart" application equipment and site-specific while grain imports remain unchanged. CD next several years. practices will make significant changes in the Asia and Latin America will remain the fastest 10 Even though last year was not a particularly quantity and type of equipment demanded by growing markets for U.S. agricultural exports. good year nationally for dry edible bean seed pro- o producers .• Exports to Asia are projected to increase by $2.2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 duction, supplies of such seed should be adequate this year. This will be especially true given a likely decline in dry edible bean planting as producers switch to corn or soybeans with their comparative higher commodity prices. RESPONSIBILITY Ene ... NO.20 Nationally and locally, fuel supplies should be good this year. Prices have been up sharply from last year at this time and will likely remain close to current levels. Some downward price movement may be signalled by the recent declines in petro- BEWARE leum futures prices, but it is too early to tell if this is a longer-run phenomenon. OF THOSE Equipment Continuing strength in farm incomes and ex- WHO QUIT pectations for strong commodity prices should trans- late into healthy demand for farm capital expendi- BEFORE tures. The modest retreat in interest rates from last year should further reinforce this trend. Equipment THEJoels supplies should be adequate while prices are likely to be up slightly with the cost of inflation. DONE. In the longer term, one of the more interest- ing trends to watch will be the combined impact of: • changing tillage practices, • the ever increasing use of custom application services, and I PROMISE TO NEVER TOLERATE • demands for reduced environmental impact ANY WORKER WHO LOOKS AT from chemicals and fertilizers on the mix of HIS WATCH EVERY 5 MINUTES. equipment purchased by farmers and by dealers I PROMISE TO BOYCOTT ANY MFB young farmers .do well in national PARTS DEPARTMENT THAT CLOSES AT 5 O'CLOCK DURING competition PLANTING. D ave Duyck, a potato farmer from Essexville, was one of four young farmers who made it to the finals of the American Farm Bureau Federa- I PROMISE TO BURN THE PHONE tion's National Young Farmer Discussion Meet, held during the AFBF annual meeting in Reno, Nev. This NUMBER OF ANY VET WHO is the second year in a row that Michigan has had a WON'T COME OUT AFfER HOURS. national finalist. As one of three national runners- up, Duyck receives a $6,000 U.S. Savings Bond, donated DY Cummins Engine Company Jne. • I PROMISE TO "RETIRE" MY INSECTICIDE IF IT "QUITS" BEFORE MY INSECTS DO. YOU HAVE A LOT OF RESPONSIBILITIES WHEN YOU RUN A FARM. ONE WAY YOU MEET THEM IS TO NEVER QUIT BEFORE THE JOB IS DONE. THAT'S WHY YOU USE PRODUCTS LIKE COUNTER- CR'" SYSTEMIC INSECTICIDE-NEMATICIDE IN THE LOCK'N LOA~ CLOSED HANDLING SYSTEM .• THE UNIQUE, CONTROLLED-RELEASE FORMULATION OF CR RESULTS IN LONGER-LASTING PROTECTION, GIVING YOU THE MOST EFFECTIVE INSECTICIDE YOU CAN BUY. CR HITS ROOTWORMS HARD AND THEN KEEPS ON HITTING THEM LONG AFTER THE OTHERS HAVE QUIT. MORE THAN ANY OTHER INSECTICIDE, CR IS WHERE YOU NEED IT, WHEN YOU NEED IT . • PLUS, CR MAKES THE UNMATCHED POWER OF COUNTER COMPATIBLE WITH ACCENT,l -- EXCEED2 AND BEACON~* • UNFORTUNATELY, INSECTS WORK JUST AS LONG AND HARD AS YOU. SO MAKE SURE YOUR INSECTICIDE DOESN'T QUIT BEFORE THEY DO. Andrew and Miriam Barbott of Stevens- ville were one of four national runners- up in the Outstanding Young Farmer Contest. They'll receive the use of a Case IH tractor, donated by Case Corp., for 250 COUNTER"t:R~OCK!n LOAD" h~ hours or until Nov. 30, 7996. RESPONSIBLE. LIKE YOU.~~ I~I [~l;f;J,;,lW I~ January 30, 1996 Management implications for livestock producers An average calf price of $60 per CWl. on a Y Gerry Schwab and Laura Martin create opportunities - opportunities to obtain he prices of many agricultural commodities financing, to reduce investment costs, to produce heifer-steer mix with a 90 percent calving rate will in early 1996 are creating consternation and a more uniform and lean hog, and opportunities produce approximately $300 gross income per cow opportunities that some of us have nOt to create marketing channels that streamline the per year. It is doubtful that many, if any, cow-calf experienced for many a year. Corn and soybean transactions from farm to consumer. producers can prosper under the current price prices are currently in an atmosphere where the The potential of these arrangements should scenario. Retained ownership is a possibility, but question may be "why feed it when I can sell it?" nOt exclude anyone who wants to achieve success . what is the probability of profit-making? ..... SWIae Sector While smaller farms may currently be struggling to The cattle feeding sectors must also contend compete with larger operations, the same opportu- ,vith high feed costs and finished cattle prices that nities available to large farms may also be reached have been and look to remain in the $65 per cwt. by smaller farms who can capture economies of neighborhood. The important decision of whether scale by networking and forming alliances with to feed cattle may have been made during fall har- Other farmers. Each one of us needs to evaluate the vest when corn silage was being made. By deter- long-run potential of the swine industry in general, mining costs of gain for alternative feeding regimes, and our own situation in particular. break-even sale and purchase prices for caHle can For those farms with management flexibility to Beef cow-calf producers have been run be determined. For most feeding scenarios that alter hog numbers or the need to depopulate in through a set of calf prices that only bad dreams can look at different in and out weights, steers vs. heif- order to improve genetics, health, etc., this may be emulate - going from an $85 per cwt. fall steer calf ers and long vs. short feeding periods, the break- the time to evaluate that short-run decision to re- price in 1993, to $75 per cwt. in 1994, and on down even purchase cost for the caHle currently results in High corn and soybean prices that translate duce hog numbers and sell more corn. Determine to the $65 per cwt. neighborhood in 1995. Cow-calf less than a $60 per cwt. feeder calf price. This is not into high feed costs are challenging the ability of the returns from selling corn (soon) versus the producers have indeed experienced a hardship. good news for the cow-calf producer. hog producers to make a profit. The 1995 Decem- potential from feeding it. Still, tOtal beef production has increased continu- Michigan State University (MSU) and MSU ber USDA Hogs & Pigs Repo11 indicated that hog Given that the 1996 summer futures hog con- ously since its cyclical low in 1990. Extension (MSU-E) are concerned about the finan- numbers continued to increase while the number of tracts are in the $50 plus neighborhood, what kind of For those who have doubts about the funda- cial well-being of the state's livestock producers and individual hog producers declined by approximately a return does this provide to your farm resources in mentals of supply and demand, the cow-calf cycle associated industries. As championed by the MSU-E 12 percent, or 25,000 farms. comparison to selling corn? You need to have your provides evidence of what happens when quantity district farm management agents and various area How can it be that some hog producers find own farm records for these decisions! Do nOt rely supplied increases faster than quantity demanded. of expertise (AoE) livestock agents, we have made it difficult, if not impossible, to earn a living from solely on published break-even figures that mayor may Low-cost, low-debt and highly efficient cow- a commitment to help producers by offering a hogs while Others are expanding? Some of the nOt be reflective of your own unique farm operation. calf producers will best be able to survive the cur- financial analysis of your own farm business. difference may be alliances and networks that rent prices. If you would like to participate in this challenging effort, please contact either one of the Extension resource people in your local area or one of these authors in the Agricultural Economics Department, at 517-355-2153 .• NORTHRUP KING CO. We have made several significant changes in our Northrup King Co. Authorized Dealer and Sales Representative Force. For your convenience, we have listed those dealers Livestock grazing authorized to sell our products. All orders must be placed through an authorized deal- conference in Battle er. If you do not find a dealer in your immediate area, please contact our District Sales Creek may help cattle Managers, Mark Klett at: (517) 546-5874 collect or Terri Never at (419) 729-1077 producers survive collect. They will be glad to assist you. P roducers who are worried about weathering the current slide of the beef caHle market AUTHORIZED DEALERS AND SALES REPRESENTATIVES might pick up some survival tips at the Great Lakes Grazing Conference. Dealer Name Dealer Location The conference will take place Feb. 19-20 Agri Sales, Inc. Grand Ledge, MI at the Stouffer Renaissance Hotel in BaHle Creek. Agri Sales, Inc. Unionville, MI Grazing experts, agronomists and livestock Agri Sales, Inc. Mulliken, MI producers will focus on fine-tuning pasture and Bartle, Dwight Brown City, MI grazing animal management. Featured speakers Growers Service Croswell, MI will come from universities, farm operations Growers Service Decke~ille, MI and industry in Ohio, Florida, Michigan, Indiana, Growers Service Henderson, MI Missouri and Iowa. Growers Service Owendale, MI The major cost in producing caHle is forage, Bidwell's Triple Crk Fms Bronson, MI says Ben BartleH, Michigan State University Exten- Bierman, William Riga, MI sion dairy and livestock agent. To cut those costs, Brasher, Michael Pittsford, MI he recommends keeping cattle on pasture as long Cole, Gerald Bancroft, MI as possible. Cranson, Wayne Charlotte, MI "If a producer would reduce hay needs by 60 D & L Wilkin Farms Britton, MI days, it would equate to 10 cents a pound when Eastern Michigan Grain Emmett, MI caHle go to market," BartleH says. "Sixty days more Eaton Farm Bureau Co-op Charlotte, MI pasture and less hay feeding is one of the lowest Emmons, Richard Adrian, MI risk, highest benefit things that a producer can do Fercowicz Farms Silverwood, MI to stay competitive." Fowlerville Co-op Fowlerville, MI The conference program will provide a num- Glynn, Harold Mason, MI ber of Other strategies for weathering poor market Harvest Mills, Inc. Durand, MI returns. Hazel Farms Peck, MI The program will run from 8 a.m. through Hector, Robert Onondaga, MI 7 p.m. the first day and from 8 a.m. to noon the Heffelfinger, Richard Reading, MI second day. Keil Farms Jerome, MI The conference cost is $40 for the first person Labar, David Union City, MI and $25 for the second person from an operation if Lake & Piepkow Olivet, MI registration is made before Feb. 3. After that clate, Letherer, Donald Pittsford, MI the cost will be $50 for the first person and $35 for Marker Farms Sebewaing, MI the second person. Lodging at the hotel will be $69 Martin, Merle Vermontville, MI if reservations are made by Jan. 27. (Ask for the Mclosky Farms Corunna, MI grazing conference rate.) Michigan Agri Commodities Blissfield, MI Among the program topics the first day will be Moyer, Lloyd (Bill) Coldwater, MI farm and forage management, watering systems, R & S Crop Services Mason, MI animal stress, fencing, the importance of shade for Ruffner, Larry Vermontville, MI livestock and the importance of pasture fertility. Schafer Bros. Carleton, MI Farmer panels will focus on grazing troubleshoOting Schlanderer, Bill Webberville, MI and on the future of grazing livestock. Schnierle Custom Harvest Ann Arbor, MI The program the second day ,viIIhave Smith, Calvin Monroe, MI special break-out sessions for dairy, beef and sheep Southern Thumb Co-op Lapeer, MI producers. Among the topics will be year-round Star of the West Milling Richville, MI grazing, seasonal dairying, the effect of grazing on Tri-County Agri-Services Homer, MI animal health and maintaining optimum animal Trierweiler, Frank Portland, MI production with grazing. Vigoro Industries, Inc. St. Johns, MI Confcrcncc details can be obtaincd from Vigoro Industries, Inc. North Branch, MI Bartlctt by calling him at 906-439-5880 or from Webberville Feed & Grain Webberville, MI Bill Bivcns, MSU Extcnsion agriculturc agent in Jackson County at 517-788-4292 .• 1~'~I~~~J.:i~ January 30, 1996 Dairy outlook Expect tighter margins in 1996 by Sherrill'S. Nott & Larry G. Hamm By Dec. 1995, corn prices were running 57 prices early in the year are expected to cause net Michigan farms does not transfer to Washington, he u.s. dairy industry will encounter a signifi- T cant cost squeeze in 1996. Feed price increases since the middle oflast year have forced the industry percent higher than in Dee. 1994. Soybean oil meal prices in Dec. 1995 were about 42 percent higher. It is expected that these higher feed prices will contin- incomes to be lower in 1996 than they were in 1995. Nationally, the USDA expects milk income over concentrate costs will fall 2-4 percent in 1996, D.C. Because of the Washington budget gridlock, the dairy industry is operating under the past dairy policy. Because of the low CCC stocks, the Secre- to adjust to tightening market conditions. Profit lev- ue well into the summer of 1996. If more typical compared to 1995. There will be interest in alterna- tary of Agriculture was required to raise the dairy els will be helped for those with access to quality feed weather patterns prevail during the growing season tive feeds and more carefully balanced rations fed to price support from Sl0.10 to SlO.35. This raised the by higher milk prices. Overall, however, profit margins of 1996, feed prices should come back down in the the dairy herd. With lower prices for beef cows support price for nonfat dry milk and that will likely will be tight, spurring producers to invest more in second half of the year. However, the higher feed continuing, aggressive culling does not appear as result in government purchases later this year. enterprise data and financial management training. profitable. Feed inventory management will be a The GATT limits take hold in 1996 and the Markets are strong entering 1996 high priority use for management time. allowable Dairy Export Incentive Program (DEIP) The dairy markets changed dramatically during Index numbers of prices paid for farm production sales have been cut, putting further pressure on 1995. Weak early year prices gave way to end of the items other than feed increased only about 2 per- butter and powder markets. The old, but still current year strength as robust dairy product demand collid- cent during 1995. If inflation continues to remain dairy policy maintains the budget deficit assessments ed with supply problems caused by weather prob- relatively dormant, dairy costs other than feed on milk producers. The current assessment of $0.10 lems in the major dairy production areas. The all- should remain about the same per unit. However, per cwt. will end on May 1 when the assessment will milk price (the gross producer price before deduc- wages paid, machinery repairs and new equipment be increased to pay for refunds to producers who did tions) for Michigan was around $12.95 percwt. . prices usually increase at double to triple the rate of not have higher 1995 production than they did in 1994. Commercial disappearance of dairy products other cost components. The impact may be partially Because of the severe weather problems in increased 3.0 percent for the year, while milk produc- offset by constant to slightly lower interest rates. many locations in 1995, the May 1996 assessment tion increased only around 1.8 percent. For all exten- The need to track the impact of ever higher may go to $0.20 per cwt. Only a new Dairy Bill will sive purposes, there were no government surplus production costs is causing an increasing number of stop this increase. Because the controversy about purchases of dairy products and the government dairy farmers to practice enterprise analysis - anoth- the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO) has held no uncommitted inventories of butter or cheese. er name for cost accounting. During 1996, many will been so severe, whatever policy solution eventually Government inventories of nonfat dry milk were one- discover the microcomputer accounting systems arises will include a major review and overhaul of half of 1994 levels and a tiny fraction of what they they have been using already have the internal power the FMMOs. have run in past years. Total U.S. cheese inventories to do cost accounting. The result will be better deci- While having no policy is causing uncertainty, are holding at normal trade levels whereas total U.S. sion making on an increasing number of Michigan whatever policy plan arises will also generate signifi- butter stocks are at their lowest point in decades. dairy farmers. cant adjustments. The outcome of the policy pro- The U.S. dairy industry is entering 1996 with Policy ancertal~ coatlaaes cess will have significant impacts on future dairy the cupboards bare. As a result, the Basic Formula Unfortunately, better decision making on outlook columns .• Price (BFP) is close to its highest level in 3 years. Severe feed price escalation, combined with residu- al production problems due to the summer heat, will hold milk prices above year ago levels through- JUST PLANT YOUR CORN out the first half of 1996. The price outlook for the second half of 1996 is somewhat cloudy because supply impacts of the feed cost squeeze are harder to predict. This is the first feed supply and price crisis that many of the new large herd expansions in the West and South- west have experienced. For all of 1996, the average ------------------, BFP will be in the range of $11.80 to $12.00. Ifthe Michigan over-order pricing structure can survive another year of intensive external competition and internal scrutiny, the Michigan average all-milk price will average between $13.00 and $13.30 per Cwt. Escalating feed costs boost production costs The cost of producing a cwt. of milk averaged THEN APPLY THE PROWL $12.59 on specialized dairy farms in 1994 that kept financial records on Telfarm. In 1995, the cost prob- ably increased slightly. The 1994 cost was 4 percent higher than in 1993. Feed cost is usually about half of total milk production costs. The average feed cost per cow was ~----------------- $1,532 per cow on these farms in 1994, up from $1,452 in 1993, an increase of about 5.5 percent. Milk sold per cow was up about 3.7 percent. This extra milk explained some, but not all, of the increased feed cost per cow. Prices also increased. Although feed prices seemed lower in the first half of 1995, they increased rapidly in the final quarter of the year. MSU site-specific management conference in Lansing, Feb. 28 I ----------~ o what extent electronic technology can profit- T ably enhance crop production will be the topic of a conference Feb. 28 in Lansing on site-specific field management. The program will focus on such topics as site- specific weed and nutrient management, yield map- ping, the economics of precision farming, and the use of geographical information systems in site- specific farming. OrnER THINGS. On the program will be Tim Taylor, of Waterloo, N.Y., and Doug Harford, Mason, m., You DON'T HAVE ANY TIME TO WASTE. THAT'S \,VHY YOU USE PROWL~ HERBICIDE AS PART OF who will talk about their experiences with site-spe- YOUR CORN WEED PROGRAM. GET YOUR CORN PLANTED EARLY.THEN BEFORETHE CORN COMES cific production on their farms. up, COME BACK WITH PROWL IN A TANK-MIX WITH BICEp,! BLADEX2 OR ATRAZINE. YOU'VE GOT The program will run from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. YOUR CORN OFF TO A GOOD EARLY START WITH AFFORDABLE RESIDUAL CONTROL OF TRIAZINE- at the Holiday Inn West next to Michigan Farm RESISTANT LAMBSQUARTERS, VELVETLEAF AND FOXTAILS. No\,v YOU HAVE MORE TIME FOR OTHER Bureau), 7501 W. Saginaw. THINGS. THAT'S IT. WE'RE HERETO CONTROL WEEDS, NOT WASTE YOUR TIME. Registration will be $50 per person, if paid by Feb. 15. After that date, the cost will be $60 per FOR MORE INFORMATION, SEEYOUR CYANAMID AGRICENTER ™ DEALER person. The cost covers the noon meal, refresh- OR CALL 1-800-942-0500. ments and handouts. Checks should be made payable to Michigan State University and sent to Jerri Wardwell, A584 Plant and Soil Sciences Building, MSU, East Lansing, MI 48824-1325. For more information about the conference, contact Darryl Warncke at MSU by calling Always follow label directions. _In. Trademarks, American Cyanamid Company CO1996. 517-355-0210 .• 'Trademark, ClBA Corporation. lTrademark, DuPont Company. ~~U11~ January 30, 1996 White mold conference seeks solutions to soybean disease A "first-ever" meeting of sorts was held at the over-wintering bodies for the disease and can reduced the incidence of white mold. Mter fighting practices and resistant variety development in 1995. Michigan State University recently that stay in the soil for several years. Diers says that wet, white mold for over 25 years, a majority of the "We're a producer group, and if someone can come brought university and private company cool conditions are ideal for the germination of the Brazilian soybean acreage is now planted no-till, up with solutions to white mold, then we need to researchers, plant breeders and plant pathologists sclerotia and the proliferation of white mold. That in a double cropping rotation with wheat, with make sure that those solutions get back to the together to discuss and compare notes on the latest has many researchers recommending that producers white mold now considered vinually non-existent. grower, while making sure that the public and pri- threat to soybean production - white mold. The look for varieties that tend to have lower canopy TIllage studies in Wisconsin and Iowa, on the vate sectors are talking to each other." two-day conference drew public and private re- height, earlier maturity and good lodging resistance. other hand, have shown just the reverse, making it With any luck at aU,the solution may come searchers from eight states and Canada. "Anything that producers can do to keep the obvious that more research is needed before a de- from a major research project being spearheaded Long considered a nuisance to localized areas canopy dry will help reduce the amount of disease," finitive tillage recommendation can be made, says by Diers that's looking at exotic soybean varieties . in nonhern ponions of the country, white mold is Diers explained. "Uwe can grow a bean that's resis- Diers. "The jury is still out on the whole tillage issue from around the world. "We're screening thousands staning to take its toll on the Midwest corn belt tant to lodging and early maturing, it's not going to - there's really not a clear answer on that whole of those varieties right now to identify new sources areas of Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana, according to have as much canopy and the wind can dry it out aspect," he said. of resistance. Our studies have shown that some MSU Crop and Soil Sciences assistant professor more readily, compared to a bushy bean that really According to Keith Reinholt, executive direc- varieties get less white mold than others, so there Brian Diers. Diers has been active in researching closes up the rows." tor for the Michigan Soybean Promotion Committee must be some son of panial resistance out there," plant data and genetics to develop a white mold- Crop rotation recommendations drew mixed (MSPC), which co-sponsored the two-day white Diers concluded .• resistant soybean plant. comments from researchers giving presentations at mold conference, the contradictory research find- Locally, Diers says white mold is becoming the conference. Although crop rotation is consid- ings make it clear that this meeting was a necessity. quite prevalent in the Thumb and Saginaw areas of ered a logical first step in combatting white mold, He hopes that while researchers look for long-term the state, as well as, more recently, the southeast- the disease can still reappear in the first year of solutions, they also consider shon-term strategies ern and southwestern ponions of Michigan. The soybean or dry bean production via spores carried that will preserve soybean acreage and production. disease symptoms usually appear on the plants in by wind into the field. The impact of small grain "The worst thing that can happen for us is to August as little cotton balls on the stems and leaves production, especially oats, is being studied in have a grower say, 'I can't plant soybeans in that of infected plants. In severe infestations, the plant many research projects. field next year because I've got white mold, Rein- In will actually die off. "We know that crop rotation can be imponant holt said. "So the immediate goal is to get produc- The disease can be spread through soils to reduce the amount of white mold inoculum. ers through the next three or four years and also contaminated with white mold sclerotia being However, you could be out of soybeans for eight come up with long-term solutions that will be avail- carried into an uninfected field via tillage imple- years - go back to soybeans - and under the right able to producers by the year 2000." ments, tires, etc., or by the wind carrying white conditions, get the disease again," Diers cautioned. Reinholt says that white mold research in mold spores released from apothesia that germi- The discussion regarding tillage methods Michigan has received the single largest investment nate from the sclerotia. drew an even more mixed bag of comments. from MSPC,with over Ha,ooo committed to univer- Sclerotia, which fall off of infected plants, are Several studies were presented that showed no-till sity research on induced resistance, management Have you selected your Stock levels, world 1996 soybean seed yet? growth to dominate 1996 trade outlook Continued from page 9 of the Nonh American Free Trade Agreement. U.S. imports from Mexico are expected to remain steady at $3.7 billion in 1996, following an increase of $900 MICHIGAN STATE million in 1995. This level of imports would be $I billion higher than in 1993. UNIVERSITY 1'nde PoIIq Ow'" With the implementation of the GAIT agree- 1995 Michigan Soybean ment in its first year and the implementation of the Nonh American Free Trade Agreement entering its Performance Report third year, most trade policy issues will focus on individual commodities rather than negotiation of B. vv. Diers and J. F. Boyse, Department of Crop and Soil Sciences trade additional agreements. Despite suppon from Canada and Mexico for expanding NAFTAto include Chile and other coun- tries, Congress has not provided authority for Presi- dent Clinton to negotiate the expansion of NAFTA. Given the continuing concern about the im- pact of the 1994 devaluation of the Mexican peso on U.S.-Mexico trade, there appears little prospect that a decision to expand NAFTAwill be negotiated be- fore 1997. Trade disputes may continue for a num- ber of commodities, including tomatoes (between the U.S. and Mexico), wheat and potatoes (between the U.S. and Canada). The resolution of these dis- putes, some of the first to arise under NAFTA,may provide an indication of how future trade disputes wiUbe resolved .• •'Vour Checkoff Dollars at Work" Garst brand name ~. ~ve I ye .. , the 19O5 Midoi""n So_n py,rlormanco Roportl. being p,ovlded to you th,ou~ the ;n... t- makes a comeback , ment of your soybean checkoff dollars. We hope you find the results of the performance trials valuable in selecting varieties based upon yield and disease information that will help maximize returns on next year's crop for your operation. A s pan of its continuing campaign to increase market share and capitalize on recent research and development inventions, ICI Seeds plans to bring back a brand name known for decades throughout the seed corn industry. Use the Michigan Soybean Garst has been one of the instantly recogniz- able names in U.S..agriculture. For this reason, ICI seeds recently announced a plan to employees to Peiformance Report as your guide. begin marketing some of its products under the Garst brand name. "As I travel around and talk to customers, the thing that stands out to me is the Garst brand name is so well-known and respected. This and our high- Distributed FREE through: quality corn, soybean, alfalfa, sorghum and, most recently, hybrid canola products, will be a winning • County Farm Bureau offices combination," says Co! Seccombe, president of ICI Seeds . • County Extension offices Over the next two years, ICI Seeds will intro- duce the Garst brand with a look that will reflect the • Insert in the Dec. 15, 1995 Michigan Farm News high-tech, progressive nature of the company. "By the middle of 1996, we will be able to • Michigan Soybean office - 517-652-3294 show you more details. At that time, we look for- ward to sharing these with you," says Seccombe .• 1~'ll~~IL'I~'~ January 30, 1996 New program offers risk tool CBOT Expert Saws ....,.. Beware Iowa pilot project by producers, elevators and large P roducers facing a more market-driven agri- commercial grain companies. She antidpates in- culture may benefit from use of new risk volvement by European interests in the forthcom- management tools. But a representative of ing U.S.yield contract. the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) warned farm- "While I'd like to saythere is a perfect fit be- ers looking to generate additional revenue through tween CBOT crop yield and price contraCts," Pem- a new yield-based contract that you must do your broke admitted that additional protections against homework. reduced yields are needed not only by farmers, but During the American Farm Bureau Federation by elevators that count on grain volume and farm meeting commodity/marketing sessions,CBOT lenders seeking secure loan portfolios. product manager Patricia Pembroke outlined the "Progressive insurance companies a!"eworking potential merits of the board's corn crop yield in- with large commercial grain companies to develop surance futures and options contracts - a program crop revenue guarantee contracts to offer produc- launched on a pilot basis lastJune in Iowa. As a ers," she said. result of the project's success,some 5,600 contracts Congress is exploring further options for us- were traded over a four-month period, not a barn ing the market asa farmer risk management tool- burner, according to Pembroke, but impressive for possibly putting forth proposals during the Farm a new contract. The board is expected to offer simi- Bill 2 debate this spring. An aide to House Agricul- lar Illinois, Indiana, Nebraska, Ohio and U.S.yield ture Risk Management Subcommittee Chairman contracts. Tom Ewing (R-Ill.) said committee members are Futures contract users may lock in a crop yield receptive to helping producers get involved in man- for a growing season,months before harvest, as a aging their own risk (hrough futures and options temporary substitute for expected yield. Producers, programs. elevators and others can sell crop yield futures con- vide additional impetus toward risk management use this contract, Pembroke told Farm Bureau AFBF commodity specialist Terry Francl cited tracts as protection against below-normal yields. alternatives. members. "However, you have to know what your the farm organization's support for such programs, Individuals also may buy.options asa yield protec- Pembroke emphasized while }~eldcontracts, yield basisis," she cautioned. "I would not suggest and suggested study of a Canadian program that has tion strategy. basedon Agriculture Department state yield esti- that you use it directly until you know what your allowed producers during good years to deposit a Pembroke stressed that price no longer fol- mates,are producer -driven and suggestedthat yield basisis, how closely your five-year yield aver- portion of their income in a common fund for with- lows yield, asit did during the 1970s.She noted that farmers could offset shortfalls in cashgrain sales age tracks with your county and, then, how your drawal in poor years. in recent low-yield years, such as 1988and 1993, through their use, producers hoping to enhance county tracks with your state." "We hope to be part of the legislation coming prices no longer are spiking at the S3level. their revenues through the market must do their The CBOTwill offer September,October and down the pike," Francl said. "There will be a num- The devastation that resulted from Mississippi homework, aswell assome comparison shopping. November 1996and January and September 1997 ber of different concepts proposed. Some of (hose, River flooding and Southeastern drought in 1993 Ideally, she said, producer candidates for yield futures and options contracts. Trading ends on the such as futures and options, relate to a specific demonstrate the need for a viable hedging mecha- contract use are those whose averageindividual, last businessday of the month prior to USDA'scorn commodity. Some of them, such asthe (Canadian) nism, she said, and the budget environment in county and state yields are closely correlated. production estimate reports; cash settlements will program, relate to overall income. And there are Washington, the elimination of ad hoc disaster assis- If your local farm tracks pretty closely with the be made on the day reports are released. various things in the crop insurance program (hat tance and ongoing global trade developments pro- county yield, then there is a possibility that you can Pembroke noted diverse participation in the we're looking at, too." • 1440 IH COMBINE, 3800. 15Yz' grain head, 843 com head. completelyrecondi- .................... !i;~I:.~.;lIsu:i:I:I:I;lli HESSTON TUB GRINDER for sale. Uke new! $5,200. Gehl flail chopper, 6' cut. _.1.1 RETIRING FROM FARM: Tools, 8 tractors, 90hp or less, tillage, harvesting, planting. BA YSIDE SEED CORN: Topped MSU County exten- sion Plot in Isabella and ANGUS BEEF: Bulls, heifers and cows with calves. Perfor- mance tested, semen tested. FOR CURRENT LIST of available Angus Cattle, write: Secretary, West Michigan tioned, maintenance records, Good condition I $750. Heavy duty steam cleaner, 2 others, for about $50 per bag. Free Deliveryl Call anytime, ~s Breeders 585 30th Baxter rotor. One owner, Call 1-81 0~57 -9087. water preasure cleaners and Check your local trails or call, SHAGBARK FARMS Street SW, Grand Rapids, MI always housed. Sl Louis, many 3-point tools. Call B&M SEED Alto, Michigan 49509. Michigan. Call INTERNATIONAL corn between 6pm-8pm, 1-517-463-2846 1-616-868-6040 1-517~81-4251. planter. John Deere offset 1-313-279-1762. LLAMAS ARE GREAT and disk, 1Z. Van Dale gutter FIRST CUTTING and second 1938 ALLIS CHALMERS cutting hay, square bales. now they're affordable! These cleaner, 222' chain . Patz BEEFALO: Registered docile, intelligent animals Model~O combine. 5' cut, gutter cleaner, 270' chain. Shelled com and 570 New cows, heifers, bulls and original paint, owners Holland square baler. Brand make wonderful pets for Call 616-734-2532. steers. The healthy red meat! hiking, packing, plcnickin9, manual. $1000 or best offer. new, $10,500. Call Also, registered Texas Long- 1-517-766-2446. pulling carts, or to just plain Call 517-726-1322 or JOHN DEERE 7200 Vac horns. All beautiful animals. enjoy. Their wool is valuable 517 ~76-5827. 12-row front fold planter. Shamrock Boo'alos and they also make outstand- GIANT SQUARE BALES of 1978 MF 10850, CAH, multi- Liquid fertilizer, inset hay and straw and small Sl Clair County ing guard animals. Call for a hoppers, 250 monitor. Row CONVEYER for sale. Single 1-810-765-8122 power, power adjust rear chain, 50'. New motor! Star- square straw bales. Delivery visit todayl 1~16~77-3309. wheels, 75% rubber, 3-point, cleaners, flat fold markers, 6 available! Ron and Nancy laferriere. diff. set plates. Excellent. line shuttle feeder, #85. Star- 2 remotes, housed. Excellent line 20' silo unloader for parts. Edward Kalia ~lLamaa condition! 3200 hours, $8000. 1-517-879-2903. EMU Two self-unloading forage ~nn, 1~17~2540 Chicks, yea rings and breed- Marne, Michigan Deerfield, 1-517-447-3361. wagons. 1-517-642-8414. (Just northwest of Grand JOHN DEERE 7200, 4-row GOOD QUAUTY ALFALFA ers. Great birds! Reasonably 1993 FORD 9030 Bi- Hay. Second and third priced. Mirochipped and Vet ~apids). no-till com planter, plateless, FOR SALE: Seman tank; 75 directions tractor with loader. finger pickup, monitor, less cutting. Also, have wheat certified. Boarding available. 235 hours, $42,000. Also, fair straws Melwood, Kemper, Support before and after sale. LLAMAS: than 2,000 acres. Excellent Rex, Sacret; De laval milker straw. Delivery available I Visit our farm and get 848 snow blower, $5200. Call 1~ 16-399-7884. condition I Lilliston 13 hole with electronci pulsators, FI.k Farm., Ex~"" Emu". BelsVlelle, MI 48111 acquainted with Uamas. no-till drill, 2,000 acres. glass line, large claws, Surge 1~16-984-5183. Useful pets! Also, sound 4310A BEET HARVESTOR Excellent condition! Call cube cooler, 500 gallon Craft 1-313-461-1362 LARGE ROUND BALES breading stock available and for sale. 4-row, field rea~. 1-517-734-4000 for bulk tank; Cablevey for straw for saJe. Stored inside I handspun Uama wool. Call Excellent condition! Rebuilt In information. double four parlor. $10 each. Four row New REGISTERED POLLED 1~16-582-7473. 1995. $10,500. Four ton 1-517-639-4739. Leave Coulters no till Chalmers hereford breeding age bulls, Horton s.., Ia.n. wooden fertilizer box with KINZE FOUR ROW, double message. planter. $1000. Will trade for heifers. Also AI bred heifers Jack & Baroara Danly auger on 19521H stake truck. frame, three Coulter Rawson MANURE SPREADERS: ripper. 1-517-386-7076. and cows. Rocky Banner Charlevoix, MI $1,000. Jim, 1-517 ~73-3211 (new coulters), dry fertilizer, New and used, Balzer, Better- bloodlines. MSU perfor- after 4pm. TWO HOLSTEIN BULLS for plastic cross augar, monitor, Bilt parts. UPS daily. Also mance tested. sale. Service age. Call planter mounted liquid 28 MICHIGAN CERTIFIED Call Rye Hereford Farm, CASE IH: Model 4800, 30' grain dryers and handling SEED: Newdak, Porter, 1-517 ~37 -4271. field cultiator with heavy 5 bar tank, John Blue pump, trash equipment 1-517-734-3005. wheels, planted 1300 acres. Prairie oats. Bowers barley. .,. sp'ike. Used two seasons . .... Ihon Dlalributlng Co. Felix, Conrad, Century 854, Uke newl Need bigger one. Excellent condition. $8500. 1-800-248-8070 Vinton 81 soy beans. Chinook Call 1-517-879-2903. 1-517-654-2531 light reds. Also Dairy Brand 1-517 ~54-2425. and Crystal alfalfa . FORD 5610 TRACTOR, less than 500 hours, purchased in B&M SEED 1991. $15,OOO/offer. MF 1135 TRACTOR, cab and 1-517-463-2846 Place your ad for 6 1~ 16~76-1393. duals, $8750. MF, 9' snow- plow, $750. Oliver 5 bottom QUALITY ALFALFA and months, get phone FORD, NEW HOLLAND trac- hydraulic reset plow, $500. tors and equipment from Mohawk 10 tooth chisel plow, AGRIPRO CORN YIELDS - - Above P3751 - $38-$83/80K. mixed hay. Almont Michigan. F.-auaon Fann. number or name in red. i, Symon's in Gaines. For 43 $1200. Dunham Lehr years, your best deal for the mulcher, $1750. Buy whole Rve soy varieties yields - - Above S19-90. Zoopore alfal- 1-8"10-395-7512 Place your ad for 1 year, f long run! setup, $12,000. Symon'. Tractor 1-517 -834-2576. fas blends and cut and graze, STRAW FOR SALE: 2000 get phone number or Gaines, 1-517-271-8445 $100-$180. Sorgo-Sudans, bales of clean wheat straw. NEW IDEA 41' bale elevator $14-$18. Millet. Call 1-517~84-3575. Even- name in red and also ORTHMAN CULTIVATOR: 1-517-386-7076. ings best time. for sale with 2hp electric motors, with grain hoppers 8 row, 3CI', folding. Like new! ALFALFA HAY, all cuttings, save $1.00 per ad. $9000. 1-517-832-2034. square bales, no rain, large and grain 1-517 -831-4355 chute. PLATFORM SCALES: quantities at discount Straw, wheat, clean square bales. Call GRAIN SEED BINS: All Tx10', 40,000 pounds, digital Call evenings or leave sizes, $100, up. Brower mixer, $800. Elevator legs, read out and hand held remote. Also can be hooked message. 1-517-496-3527, 1-517-496-3536. 1-800-968-3129 $400, up. Other seed FOR SALE: AuSable Seed processing equipment Stanton, 517-831-8317, to a printer. Excellent condi- tionl 1952 John Deere combine. Heath bean puller, ARST, SECOND and third cutting alfalfa hay for sale. Oats. Purity, test weight, and germination tested. for details 517 -831-5589. Delivery availablel Call Call Duane Basel at 6-row. 517~93~95. 1-517-864-3402. 1-517 -734-3694. ~~I~'I=\~ January 30, 1996 . --- --- • LLAMAS: North American OPPORTUNITY EXCELLENT EXTRA TOM'S OVERHEAD DOOR COLLECTOR'S ITEM: IIIn .... awn... GaaJOII: Sitting Bull and Essex blood- Position open for a hands-on Income! Assemb!e simple Sales and Service, Inc. Restored Adams road grater Investor interested in lines Pet males and weanling working farmer (preferably craft products at home in your Commercial and residential. #3. Horse or tractor drawn. purchasing, producing royalty females. Reasonable pricesl with family) to manage and spare time. Easy work! Fun to . Doors and openers. Also, other graders for sale. Income for Immediate cash. Call for more information and farm 691 acres of Produc- do! Program guaranteedl Call Call 1-517-681-2185 or Call 1-517-834-5187. Prefer Antrim 9as. Other visit, 1-517-645-2719. tive, quality farmland and now, 1-800-377-6000, ext. 1-800-783-8752 formations conslaered. Call Miller'. Llamaland forest in Redmond Town- 9780. Jay, 1-800-968-7645. Univ8l'1lal Farm Account Potterville, MI' ship, Good Hart, Michigan. INDIVIDUALS for custom Book & Income Tax Record HARDY OUTSIDE Approximately 400 farmland harvesting operation. Texas PIEDMONTESE CATTLE: A handy means for keeping WOOD FURNACE: acres owned and leased, 200 complete records of your Lean, tender, double through Montana, 1996 World'S#1 seller. Stainless acres under irrigation. New season. Must be clean, income and expenses. muscled, good calving ease. Quality registered breeding farm machinery and equip- ment, plus new 43,000 honest, hard working, with U.F.A.B., 2472 North Harbor, HERITAGE steel construction. home, hot water tank, pools. Heats stock. Also available embryos farm background. Full time P-1, Bay City, MI 48706. BUILDING SYSTEMS Eliminates fire danger. 10 square-foot hay storage bam, and semen. handling facilities, equipment work possible. 1-517-667-4937. 800.643.5555 year warranty! Dealerships Redbird Farm. storage barns and repair 1-402-364-2468. BUILD IT YOURSELf AND SAVE available. 1-800-743-5883 Lapeer, Michigan shop. 24 1401 10 $4,075 J.mbor .. Ac .... 1-810-797-4701 Must be experienced and 36 1401 10 55,263 QUALITY ANGUS BREED- knowledgeable in running a 40 I 60 I 12 58,007 PROFESSIONAL CA TTLE ING STOCK Performance fine horse hay (alfalfa-brome) 50 I 75 I 12 511,1 S9 hoof trimming: Statewi de I tested, Bulls semen tested . farm. Someone who knows 60 I 100 112 516,515 . Over 14 years experience. Free delivery. Also Border the earth, preparation, fertili- 150 I 200 I 14 (m-I) 577,018 Prices start at $8. Call zation, seed, growing, cutting, RAISE HERBS, live healthier Norman Beale Collie Stock Dogs. Call t()(ta~. !,\er,1~ r~rm.....easms f baling, storing and marketing and wealthier. Huge market! rtiaJ 1-616-775-0488 BORDNER ANGUS FARMS of fine horse hay for discrimi- Growers needed. Free infor- r.~Ii3}.I?;.~VI~O' n~~, Sturgis, Mr616-651-8353. QI , fiOOSe ' nating buyers. mation. Send L.S.A.S.E. to ~ell.14I REGISTERED Scottish High- Herbs, Depl E, 1910 Chocti- ~Ite ,20~t~ ~ h e~!~ ~. nnir&a~. Save 75% On Work Clothes I Must be Willing and capable of land cattle, breeding stock and semen for sale. Vistors welcomel providing: mar, Fort Wayne, IN 46808 ilII' r:.>:.w.:.:.>:.:.:.:.:<.:.:.>:.:.:.: •• ',:.:.>: 101 acres tillable, 40 wooded, • GSI Top Dry Cecil, OH 1-41NH-4m dev.elopment and custom built ranch. $295,000 . • Airstream Auto Dryers improvement May be split Coordination of crop market- ing, with knowledgeable hay '-FA-'-MERS" , Livestoci & commodity prices 100 law? , F.-I RMIEstate 1-517-263-8666 • • • Feed ProcesSing & Delivery Equipment Bucket Elevators Milwrioht Services BORDER COLLIE PUPPIES brokers, or drecl • Dryer Repair & Services for sale. Traditional and tri- ,- Cosh flow too slow? , WANTED: Farms and land Take orders-follow orders- _ Mortgage payments 000 biDs ove!- colored, ABCA registered. give orders. throughout MichiQan, agricul- Johnson System, Inc. Both parents on site. Bred for , wheming?' , tural and recreational. Large . Marshall, MI Leadership. work or trail. Excellent eye! Interface and communicate at ,- ~ v.ilo ooderstonds I parcels preferred. We have buyersl ' 616-781-9000 Call 1-517-379-3918, al/ times with everyone Lachine. involved inside/outside the ,_ Woof someone to tal to yw Iendef? , F.-t RealEstate SOFTWOOD WANTED: _ Do you lIIderstooo YOtI options with 1-517-263-8666 Sawlogs and pulpwood. BORDIE COLLIE pups. operation. Good character - honest, , PA 116? _ Do you need to restructure your I 20 TO 80 ACRES of mixed White, Red, Jack, Austrian Registered parents work and Scotch pines. Also, cattle and sheep. Ready for trustworthy, loyal, with integri- ty, ethics and compassion. , fllTllilg busiless? I wooded hunting land. Year round, road accessible. Balsam, Spruce and Christmas. ,- Do you need to consKfer mongilg YlltI , Call 1-517-592-4064. Caring for people, equipment, North of M-46. No swamp Hemlock. Especially White YOCatioo? Pine sawlogs; standing or land and nature. , W.~ w.AD •• w•• ,. I land or long narrow strips. Established seed com- Must reco~nize and accept of "" ,.,.. t., .s ....... Offering cash. Call roadside. only! Lower Peninsula resp<64(2 lell) background in agriculture evenings. UP TO 400/0 OFF!!! OWner provides: and/or seed sales. Health benefits - major 20 YEAR WARRANTY WANTED: 2"-«" used alumi- To represent company RODE08~~ medical. American Steel Arch Inc. num irrigation tubing. Buy, in central Michigan. Workman's compensation, FACTORYOIRECT Sell or Tradel Call Compensation open liability and life insurance (to and negotiable depending be discussed). POSITION WANTED Exper- 1-800-942-1234 Rain Control 1-800-536-1246 Bonus plan based on perfor- ienced farm manager looking ... on experience. Reply to: WILDlEST mance, profit and for a position in management Michigan Farm News P.O. Box 30960 contribution. or a related position. exper- • WANTED: Old motorcyles, Annual compensation ienced in sales, in growing all Lansing, MI . 48909-8460 contract paid monthly, long- snowmobile and off road vehi- types of vegetables. term employment desirable, cles. 1965 and older. Call JD, 1-517-561-2333. _ • ~aaale u€ ana ~erience 1-517-676-0583. HOMEOWNERS! based upon successful .~~:eck performance. ~ tlie unique~ fhmericon Housing on farm negotiable in ~ ~ort oj r~eo. ~ee 6011 CRANBERRY ROOTED the compensation package. .., ria;",8.co/{ ro€ins. steer CUTTINGS for sale. One year WANTED: Old gas pumps All necessary eqUipment to old, 72 cell plug size. Stevens and globes, old oir boWes, old wrer.t/ins. 6ronc rict,ns ana more. porcelain siQns, any old gas run and maintain the opera- variety. Plugs will establish tion added as recommended ~eorn a600t 't>otive fbmerican station Items. Call very quickly. 15~ each. paycheck and mutually agreed upon by culture onll see liistoric reenact- 10,000 minimum order. Order 1-616-984-5183 anytime. farm manager and ments at tlie ~o~0'JJ ~tom~lle now! Lawton, Michigan. LOANS BY PHONE management Would consider contracting EXPERIENCED agribusiness Michigan attorneys with or ~Ii~enne 'frontier f)o~&. 1-616-657 -5040. WANTED TO BUY: Hard- SAME DAY APPROYAL any services in thefarm'g,est farm backgrounds. Know- Fo, more informatiO~ wood timber in Northern interests. ledge and experience in all on Maupintour's 1996 FARMERS, ARE YOU Michigan. Horse logger -Statewide Service. Call Toll Free-- Should you be selected for farm areas; restructure, stray Rodeos of the Wild West specializing in select cut FRUSTRATED? Do you 1-800-968-ZZZI consideration, an interview voltage, bankruptcy, estate call 800-292-2693, have a need to: Increase harvesting of grade and with you and later your family planning. EAST SIDE: Monday-Friday, 8 AM-5:30 PM profitability of your farm! verieer timber. Maximum ALLSTATE MORTGAGE and a visit to the farm would Thomas J. Budzynski, 43777 fmprove soil condition? profit for land owner now and !!!loans by pho~c!!! be arranged. All responses acknowledged. will be G roe sbeck Clemens, 810-.t83-5253; Hwy., MI 48036, WEST SIDE: Mt. I!!J= FARM BIJREAIJ JRAWI. Increase Conserve more efficiently? These are crop and use water yields? In the future. Experienced and insuredl Call Dan Sloan, 1-616-525-8087. Owner's achievement goal: Robert A. Stariha, 40 W. OF MIClflGAN just some of the many possi- Sheridan, Fremont, MI ble benefits we can provide. An excellent profitable farm 49412,816-924-3760. We have a solution! WANTED TO BUY: Standing operation. timber of all types. Call .llIlil Call Mr. Bislas today at WANTED: Uttle pony mare A happy place to live, work, 1-616-463-4602. R. H. Rehkopf about two or four years old. and raise a family. Big Rapids, Michigan SAVE MONEY Reasonable! Pinto, have Send personal resume and 1-800-725-7181 Recycle your diesel and baby in July, ten years old, references including your industrial air intake filters HAPPY JACK MANGE with papers, can ride, $4000, thoughts and suggestions if Herin Auction Service: using the Sonic Dry Oean MACHINE promotes healing 080. Bred brown goat, two the opportunity were yours to: Hesperia, Michigan. All types Wanted, Standing Timber: System. No liquids or deter- and hair growth to severe years old, $200, OBO. Mariane Savlne, 100 West of auctions! Farms, estates, Buyers of timber of all types. gents used. 50% savings over manqe ana hot spots on dogs 1-517-626-2582. Long Lake Road, Bloomfield household, liquidations. CaSh in advance! new filters. and norses without steroids! Hills, Michigan 48304. Honest, dependable, reliable. 1-517-875-4565, ask for Tim. Recycle Now. Inc. Contains NO Benzyl Benzo- REGISTERED TENNESSEE Walking 1-517-426-7686. Horses for sale. Holland, 1-616-396-n24 1-616-396-8102, Fax MI For more information, 1-616-854-8151. Larry Herin, Auctioneer call ate! Availabe at your nearest TSC Store. ..:: Johns, Sl =rtc. MI fim~~~IL11:t~ January 30, 1996 --. 9TH ANNUAL EASTERN MICHIGAN FARM TOY AND Mr. Corn Farmer, Are you pleased with the price you pay for seed corn? FOR CRAFT SHOW, February 18, DISPLAY AD 9am-3r.m. Imlay City Middle Schoo, Imlay City, Michigan. BAYSIDE1796 Yielded 216 Bu. Per Acre Call 810-724-8010 810-724-1186. days or Winner in Tuscola County Corn Trials This great new 96 day hybrid can be bought during February for $49.00 per 80,000 kernel bog. BAYSIDE1796 hod the highest actual yield in the Sanilac Co. trials with 169.77 bu. per acre. In Isabella Co. BAYSIDE1796 was the winner with a yield of HlI)S()N CONStRUCnoN 157 bu. per acre, 8 bu. better than the 12 hybrid. In Michigan State University testing of corn in 6 different counties against Pioneer's excellent 3751 and 3769, BAYSIDE1796 yielded more than each Pioneer hybrid every single time, averaging 13.4 5 bu. more than Pioneer 3769 and 7.35 bu. more than Pioneer 3751. We would appreciate your business. INFORMATION CALL SERVICES All types of agricultural, Call 517-659-3115 or 517-659-2440. commercial, residential construction. Steel, bricks or BAYSIDE SEEDS sticks. Ucensed and insured 259 Bowker Road, Munger, MI 48747 Ask for Lyle with certified engineers. Call 1-616-785-9704. SLF Management Services, Inc. (517)862-4262 Bookkeeping Services 1-800-292-2680 EXT. 3203 We are expanding our monthly bookkeep- ABSOLUTE TOP CASH for ing services. If you're a small business or land contracts. Up to 95t on farm operation looking for a professional the dollar. Best offer guaran- teed. Same da:{ close. computerized bookkeeping service, contact: 1st National Ken Swanson, SLF Management Services, Inc. 1-800-17 ... 2324 (517) 862-4262. r---------------------------------, Run your classified ad for 2 issues, get your third issue FREE! Deadline for next issue is February 7, 1996 Call1-80Q-968-3129 to Place Your • Classified Ad Today! or use the coupon below and mail or fax your classified Buy Line/Daily News ad to Michigan Farm News FAX: W hile most companies or decreasing Bureau-sponsored are raising rates benefits, our Farm health insurance through P.O. Box 6, Stanton, MI 48888 1-517-831-5063 Blue Cross Blue Shield keeps getting better and better. In fact. we recently added three Classified Ad Codes new wellness benefits to our health plans 1. F:.rm M:.ch/nery 10. Work W:.nted 20. Wanted To Buy and we did it without raising rates. 2. Livestock Equipment 11. Agricultural Services 21. Special Events If you're paying too much for your family health 3. F:.rm Commodities 12. Buslnoss Services 22. Recre:.llon insurance or you own a business whose health plan 4. Seeds 13. Dusrness Opponun/tJes 23. Fln:lncJng costs are out of control, we have the answer to 5. livestock 14. Real Estate 24. Investors W:lnted. 6. Poultry 15. Real Estate Wanted 25. Building s your problem. 7. Dogs :.nd Puppies 16. Estate S:lles 26. l:.wn And G:lrden Over 20 plans to choose from At Farm Bureau, we offer different types 8. PonlesIHorses 17. Auctions 27. Announcements of coverage for individuals/families, small 9. Help Wanted 18. Antiques/Collectibles 28. To Give AW:lY business owners and seniors needing Medicare 19. Gener.J1 29. Vehicles supplemental insurance. The result is lots of options at prices tailored to your budget. Name Phone ( ) _ Service, service. service And service doesn't stop after the sale when you Address have BCBS coverage through Fann Bureau. City State Zip Our 69 county offices and over 400 agents are located across the entire state so you get ClassHied Ad Code Requested Number of Issues hometown service no matter where you live. FREE,no obligation information Desired Insertion Dale(s): So, if you're looking for value in your health insurance coverage, give us a call at 1-800- Method of Payment 292-2680, ext. 3239 or 3240, or return the Check $ (payable to Mlchig.;.: Farm News Classified) coupon to receive free additional infonnation about Fann Bureau-sponsored Blue Cross Visa Card Number Exp. Date _ Blue Shield health insurance plans. Master Card Number Exp. Date Yes, please send me more information about Classified Rates - S8 for up to 24 words - 30 cents each additional wo.rd Farm Bureau-sponsored Blue Cross Blue Shield Write your ad here, including phone num~er and area code health insurance. 2 3 4 o IndividualJfamily coverage - for people who don't have employment-based coverage. 5 6 1 8 o Small group coverage - for farm and small business owners. o Medicare supplemental coverage - for seniors over 65. MFN 13096 9 10 11 12 IIAIL TO: lIichigan Fenn Bureau, P.O. Box 30960, Lensing, III 48909-8460 13 14 15 16 Name 17 18 19 20 Address 24 City State ZiP 21 22 23 County Phone ( 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36. L Circulation over 46,000 In State of Michigan. ~ ~ January 30, 1996 Land values to show gradual increase Steve Hanson and Ralph Hepp in higher commodity prices at the end of the year the urban fringe and in recreational areas and L and values in Michigan showed steady gains from 1990 to 1994, but have leveled-off during 1995. A study conducted by Michigan State University last spring found that "above aver- which allowed the crop sector to contribute signifi- cantly higher net returns than expected. Gross in- come from livestock in 1995 was very close to the 1994 level in Michigan. As a result, the finandal will push land values in these areas above their agricultural-use value. Expect farmland prices to show a modest increase during the year. Higher grain prices and age" corn-soybean-hay land in the southern part of position of most of Michigan producers is much large inventories will be liquidated at favorable the lower peninsula was worth an average of $1,064 better than anticipated, meaning that producers are terms this spring which will provide good cash posi- per acre, while below average land was worth $732 entering 1996 in a stronger financial position than tions for purchasing production inputs. With nor- per acre. Sugar beet and irrigated land had average the previous year. mal yields in 1996, crop producers should show values of $1,526 and $ 1,348 per acre, respectively. Changes in the property tax laws-du,ring 1994 excellent returns. Although higher feed prices are The survey found that land values had in- appears to have had only marginal impacts on land dampening the outlook for livestock and dairy pro- creased between 3 and 6 percent during 1994. How- prices. One factor dampening the impact of the tax ducers this year, they should show increased mar- ever, the expected increase during 1995 was only reduction is that land enrolled in the PA116 program ketings to offset higher feed costs and other costs. around 2 percent per acre. Consistent with these has not benefited from the lower property tax be- Interest rates should decline slightly, if the expectations, a recent survey by the Federal Reserve cause the land owners were already paying a com- Federal Reserve lowers the discount rate as expected Bank of Chicago found that September values for parable tax rate after receiving the PA116 refund. early this year. These factors, plus the overall positive "good" farmland in southeast Michigan were only However, the lower property taxes appear to have attitudes of farm operators, should lead toward more 1 percent above the values in the previous year. caused an increase in interest in farmland by at least land transactions and higher prices in 1996. Michigan crop producers entered 1995 with some nonfarm investors, as evidenced by the re- The overall inconsistency of returns for some large inventories, but depressed prices for many ported purchase of a significant amount of Michigan commodities and a good memory of times when commodities. Uvestock and dairy producers started farmland by a large insurance company shortly after land prices advanced too fast should keep farm the y~ar with uncertain profit potential, and grow- the change in the property tax law was instituted. buyers conservative. If present export demand for ers held back on making land purchases. In addi- Purchase of agricultural land for residential corn and soybeans declines, or yields in agriculture tion, the interest rates on new real estate loans and/or recreation land use continues to be signifi- return to previous levels, commodity prices may approached 10 percent during 1995, close to cant in many areas and is exerting upward pressure erode somewhat. This, combined with reduced the demand for land and put a lid on prices. 1 percent above the rate a year earlier and nearly on land prices in these areas. This has been a com- support from government programs, may cause Overall, expect strong returns from farmland, 2 percent above the rate in 1993. mon theme for years now and appears likely to land buyers to hold greater financial reserves, and as well as alternative investment opportunities, to Excellent crop yields in Michigan in 1995, intensify in the future. Development pressures will use larger down payments, than in previous up cause increased activity in the land market and pric- accompanied by lower outputs in the U.S., resulted continue to extend further into rural areas along cycles in agriculture. These factors could dampen es to increase at the level of inflation in the general economy, probably showing a 2-3 percent increase during the year.• The Insecticide For Peo121e Higher fertilizer prices for 1996? ao.-t too ~~ _ tile iliad of ... With More Brains U nless you have the proper sheltered storage, it probably will not pay to buy fertilizer this fall hoping to beat any price run-ups next spring. Maurice Vitosh, Michigan State University Than Money Extension agronomist, says, the hint of notably higher fertilizer prices this time of year are not un- usual and that price hikes are usually not out of line with other years. "What I find by looking at corn and nitrogen prices is that we are seeing about the same corn- nitrogen price ratio we ~ad 15 to 20 years ago," Vitosh says. "There may be some price increase but I don't think it ,viII be much greater than we have seen in previous years. Unless there is some tax incentive and considering the interest that will ac- crue by placing an order now, I don't see much advantage to buying now." He also says, that "storing" fertilizer in the ground is pretty much a losing proposition because of the potential for nutrients leaching into ground- water and run-off into surface water. Vitosh says, that growers might better focus on doing a good job of tailoring their fertilizer appli- cations according to soil tests and, in particular, soil nitrate testing prior to sidedressing corn. He adds that research presented at a recent agronomy meeting in Missouri bears out the value and accuracy of the testing. "The results presented show that the side- dress test is working very well from Pennsylvania to Wisconsin to Nebraska," Vitosh says. "Asoil nitrate test of 25 parts per million nitrate nitrogen at side- dress means that little if any nitrogen is needed. We give a ppm rating credit toward 15 pounds of nitro- gen per acre and normally, that is enough for any Smarr people like you know value. That's why you probably already know about THIMff~ good crop except maybe under irrigated conditions. He also says that more likely growers could soil and systemic insecticide. Yearafter year, THIMff has proven itself for rootworm control. Now, with also take additional fertilizer credits for the use of conservation tillage, THIMff is proving itself against high residue insects, such as wireworms, legumes and for any manure that has been applied white grubs, and other pests that will increase their pressure season after season and for which there is no to cropland prior to planting. "Spring is a good time to do the testing be- rescue treatment. So, if you want to save your money and show off your brains, get THIMff in the cause you'll get pretty accurate information on how LOCK'n LOAD~ closed handling system. It's your best all-around package for value and performance. much and what type of fertilizer the crop needs and that can be quite helpful in managing fertilizer And, it's compatible with Accentl and Beacon~ Need more proof? Call us at 1-800-942-0500. costs," Vitosh says. He advises growers to stay in touch with their fertilizer dealer about any price changes and if pri~ es are significantly higher in the spring, consider PROTECTION. VALUE. PERFORMANCE. redudng corn acreage and increasing soybean acre- age or some other crop to trim nitrogen costs. Overall, he says, growers might be better off Rcstricttd Use Ptsticidt. AlwaysJollow labd dirutions . .". Tradmlams, Ammcan Cyanamid Company 01994 I Tradmlarh, DuRmt Company 2Tradmlarh, Cioo using regular soil tests to tailor crop fertility inputs rather than trying to beat a hinted price hike and save a few dollars .•