DEVELOPMENT TRENDS IN BOTSWANA SINCE INDEPENDENCE: AN EDITORIAL INTRODUCTION 'lHAOO T. FAKO Backgroom 26th lit .... March 1986, the Faculty of Social Sciences agreed to organise a workshop as part of several national acti vi ties to mark the occasion of the 'lWentieth Anniversary of Indeperxlence in Bots\el'la. '!he main aim of the workshop was to give an q:portuni ty to local and international scholars to share their research findings and exchange views on various aspects of developnent in Botswana. '!he specific objectives of the workshopwere outlined as foll~s:- 1. to provide an q:portuni ty for the exchange of views on developnent trends since Independence; 2. to systematically identify and evaluate strengths am weaknesses of past developnent trends; 3. to draw up broad suggestions for strengthening future development efforts; 4. to update and suwlement written works on developnent in Botswana; 5. to prepare a manuscript based on the worksh::lpfor p.lblication. - i - '!he implementation of worksb:>pobjectives was done through the office of the Dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Professor P. N. Takiraml:A.1dde, WOOprovided the overall leadership and logistical support as O1airman of the three man Faculty Organisin;J eamnittee which incl\Xied B. otlhogile and T. T. Fako. 'Ibe workshcF was held on the Universi ty of Botswana campusbetween 22 and 24, September, 1986. His lbrx:lUr '!he Vice President and Minister of Finance and Developoont Planning, Mr. Peter S. Mmusiperformed the official openin;J of the works1x>p. His Speech reassured scholars of the illp)rtant role that research plays in developnent and el1CCA.lraged them to know that his government sUf¥X)rts the free exchange of ideas between scholars, intellectuals, as well as ordinary citizens. '!he speech is included in this volume for the benefit of the reader. It took a year to get all the papers typed, proofread, and presented for publication. After consideration by several publishers, PUIA: Botswana Journal of African Stu:lies, urrler the leaderShip of Professor M.J. Melamu (Fn.i tor) , offered to publish selected papers in two volumes. '!he first volume contains selected papers on developnent trends while the second volumewill caltain papers that discuss developnent "issues" since independence. After another year of editing and consultations with authors to get the papers ready for publication in PUlA, we are happy to present the first of the two volumes based on selected papers fran the 'IWentieth Anniversary of Independence \'brkshcp on Developnent Trends in Botswana. In the first paper of this volume, Shastri argues that, although the p:p.Uation of Botswana is small relative to the size of the ca.mtry, the growth rate of 3.7 percent per annum is one of the highest. '!his means that Botswana has one of the -ii- fastest growing populations in the world. Due to high fertility and declining IlOrtality, the population has a large prOJ:X>rtionof children and ycxmg people. In addition, the .PC¥llation is characterised by a high rate of urbanisation and a preporrlerance of wcrnenin the ycxmg adult (reproductive) age groups. This has very serious implications for development irrleed. It is well knCMn that a youthful population requires large expenditures on education, health and other social services. The current trerrl in population grCMthwill necessitate very rapid econanic grCMth in order to maintain, and possibly increase, the standard of living and the quality of life. Given relatively scarce financial, technical and human resources, l1cMever, Botswanamay find it increasingly difficult to meet her future needs in the extra social infrastructure required to support a large number of dependents. What is IlOre, there is no guarantee that the econanic grOo\lth rates to which Botswana has becane accustaned will continue into the 1990s as the country increasingly becanes urbanised. The rapid rate of urbanisation imposes strains on housing, transportation, and employment opportunities. Shastri concludes by pleading for measures to be taken to ensure a rErluction in the population grCMth. Ea:n:mi.c Trerrls '!he second paper by Sekgana argues that although trends in the econany and its future looked bleak at Independence, within a soort period of six years, posi ti ve trends in Botswanas I econany began to be felt and the country was able to balance its budget without assistance fran Britain. The main reasons for Botswana's success include the following: 1. Favourable weather corrlitions in the latter part of the 1960s and early 1970s resultErl in improved crops and livestock production which resulted in the - iii - agricultural sector daninating in terms of oontribution to GDPuntil the mid 1970s when the mining sector overtook agriculture. 2. '!he relocation of the capital fran Mafeking to Gaboronestimlated the grarth of the p.tblic sector am job creation in the ecorx:my. 3. '!he discovery of dianoms at Orapa and ~r-nickel at Selibe-Phikwe in the mid 19705 generated phenanenal econcmic growth which enabled government to undertake infrastructure developnent on a wide scale, and generated further employment opportunities. 4. An efficient civil service played a major role through an effective choice of projects, timely implementation and overall prudent financial housekeeping. As a result, Botswanaexperienced one of the highest growth rates in Africa. In spite of a successful ecorx:my, the cordi tions of the poor seem to have deteriorated. Social inequalities in the rural areas intensified and workers in tcwns received wages that were too la./ to help them subsist above the poverty trap. '!his does not augur well for political stability in the future. Sekgcma concludes by pleading for greater efforts to be made to ensure that the la.lest socio-econcmic groups are not by-passed by the benefits of econanic growth. Etlucation and Manpower Trends Kann am Taylor sb::Mthat the history of manpa.lerplanning can be traced through a variety of camnittees beginning with the Staming Advisory Cbmmittee on Recruitment, Training and I.Dcalis--.tion Policy in 1961, through several major studies carried out by various consultants and through the National - iv - Developnent Plans. '!he canmittees, sttrlies and the Plans, reflect an on going roncern with how to develop staff and manage govennnent offices; how to create new jobs; how to pronote localisation; how to increase the participation of WODen anong others. In response to man}XJWer needs, the educational system has grown in both quantity and quality. In addition to primary sch::>ols, secondary schools and the University of Botswana, institutions such as the Polytechnic, Botswana 1Igricultural College, Insti tute of Developnent Management, Natiooal Institute of Health, '!he Botswana Institute of Administration am Camnerce, Department of Non-FormalEducation, teacher training oolleges, brigades, etc, testify to attenpts to provide educational facili ties and training centres to meet nan}XJWer needs of various sectors of the economy. Kann and Taylor note that althoogh manpa.oler needs have provided the official justification for educational expansion, the actua.l determinants of expansion have been population growth, poli tical pressure, availability of qualified entrants at each level, and availability of furns. A machinery for the illplementation and I1Pnitoring of manpower plans is still inadequate. OVerall, there has been little serious attempt to integrate manpower planning and educational developnent. In ~ticular, little thought has been given to how education could or should oontribute to rural developnent and enployment creation. '!he educational system has not had such a beneficial inpact on prcduction, enployment, rural developnent and social justice. Twenty years after Indeperrlence, there exntinues to be a soortage of skilled and professional ~r. At the same time, there continues to be far too nany Batswana seeking incomes fran enployment than there are incane earning CJRlOrtunities available. In spite of c:anmitment to educaticn in the form of increased expenditure, quantitative expansion of - v - facilities and equipnent, nore systE!l1atic operation of the educational system, there has been very little participation by Batswana themselves in the shaping of productive activities. Policy formulation doc:unents continue to be dominated by an international network that excludes effective participation by citizens. It is not yet clear whether the integration of IIIal'1pCMeI' planning within different sectors e.g. education, health, agriculture, etc., will improve the overall picture in the future. Cr~ Production Trerrls Selolwane notes that in the past 20 years of indepenjence, Botswanahas not produced enough to satisfy the dietary needs of its population. Only a tiny proportion of households produce enough for their subsistence needs during climatically favtXlrable years. '!bus, self sufficiency has not risen above 50 percent. As a result, Botswana has consistently received food aid since imepenjence. pulation, has resulted in a declining per capita production fran l59Kg. per annum in 1975/76, to 58Kg. per annum in 1980/81 and to a mere 7K.g.per annumin the worst ever drought year of 1983/84. With the sharp decline in food production during the drought, there has been an increased dependenceon imported foods fran dooor agencies and the canmercial sector. While the Drought Relief Programme is on going, and "blanket coverage" of vulnerable groups continues, nutritional status should remain reasonable, and even improve in spite of declining food grains production. At present, an extensive, relatively efficient and closely monitored food distribution and relief programme (covering 60 percent of the nation) has resulted in an improvement in the nutritional status observed through the National Nutrition Surveillance System (NNSS)since 1978. If current support is withdrawn, manyhouseholds ,.,puld suffer. After the drought, many households are expected to have difficulty in regaining their fonner levels of production due to loss of assets, especially livestock. '!he most vulnerable households include: th:>se without viable cattle herds, those without cattle at all, female headed h:luseholds, and those wh:) - ix - do rot engage in agriculture at all. '!hus, drought relief dependencyhas set-in and in spite of the national principle of self-reliance (Boipelego). Clearly, the greatest challenge remains that of providing the means of securing household inccmes and food for vulnerable rural households after the drooght, given that many of them will not be able to take advantage of m.nneroosagricultural schemes interrled to uplift farming households. Kgosidintsi, Khulumani and Mp:>fu conclude by noting that simultaneous developments in the health, agriculture and other sectors have had a posi ti ve impact in sustaining enca.lraging trams in the iDprovementof health in spite of the drought. Food distrib.ttion progranunes seem to have IlOst positively influenced the utilization of health services, especially when agricultural activities diminished. '!he challenge now facing the government is to continue the p:>siti ve trends in nutritional status and other health indicators. '!be Regiooal. Oxttext of Develcpoent In order to canprehern the quality and volume of developnent in Botswana, it is important to understand the basic gecrIX>litical constraints that the camtry faces. For one thing, Botswana is in the middle of a region that has been characterised as the "voltex of violence". Botswana's land-locked status imposes ecoo.anic and political limitations which have direct and irdirect implications for social, cultural and ecorxDic devele>prent. Imports and exports are subject to an increasingly turb.t1ent political climate which makes the camtry vulnerable to both predictable and unpredictable changes in the region. Chipasula and Miti rote that while Botswana has made major strides to xtr' e lcate herself frem South Africa' s stranglehold, the CYIIl ......... rE!llla1nsdepenjent on Salth Africa for migrant 1aboor, trade, transport links, as well as revenue fran custCJDS - x - and excise. In fact, as a "labour Reserve", Botswana is among those countries that fall under the IlOst direct "mercy" of South Africa. The need for goo:i neighbourliness is dictated by strong economic reasons. The econanic, political and military dominanceof South Africa does not only ensure the country's centrality in the region, but also makes prudent statesmanship and good neighborliness imperative for the survival of Botswana. In practice, it has meant that while Botswana condemned apartheid, she could not afford to give cause for South Africa's military retaliation. This tenuous and risky path has led Botswanato adept foreign policy principles that include non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and preference for peaceful negotiations. Over and above the internal developnent of the country, Botswana has spent muCh energy developing an international visibility in order to prevent diplomatic and economic iSOlation. She has also carved out an image of stability and adherence to democratic principles which have strengthened her relationship with Western powers: which has become a useful shield against potential South African aggression. Chipasula and Miti conclude by suggesting that Botswanahas to cement her goo:i relations with her Western allies, particularly the USA and Britain, so that they can continue to exercise a restraining hand on South Africa's actions against Botswana. This is important because, while Botswanais at the forefront of SADOCinitiatives which will open alternative transport routes for Botswana, these initiatives are not likely to reduce Botswana's transport and other dependence on South Africa sL1b;tantially. Besides, what holds together the SAOCCgrouping of countries is the cannon enemyof apartheid. With the demise of apartheid, the continued future of SADCC is in doubt. - xi - Cbnclusion '!he papers in this volumetestify to the fact that Botswana has madefurrlamental changes that have rapidly !ll)ved the country fran the status of being regarded as "a \\Orthless piece of territory" to being heralded as "a miracle; indeed one of the few success stories in Black Africa". '!he level-headedness of the "cool calculating cuctnnbers" that run the civil service ensured effective choice of developnent projects and efficient implenentation which attracted foreign investors, donors arrl expatriates to work in a stable environ.-nent in which practical ecnncmicplanning took place. '!he confluence of these factors meant that, in a very short period after independence, the ccuntry was able to display a carurendable record in the areas of danestic price stability, balance of payments, stability of the exchangerate, the grCMth rate of output arrl employment, anong other things. By the 1980s, there was an actual grONing excess liquidity in the banking system. By then, the country had developed the best road system in Africa, having !ll)re bitumen per capita than any other sub-Saharan country other than South Africa and Mauritius. Social services have also guaranteed an improvement in the quali ty of Ii fe of manyrural households. Efforts to improve delivery and utilization of health services, to increase the benefits of imnunization programmes, to provide safe drinking water, to increase rural literacy arrl to reduce infant mortality have been generally successful. '!he Infant ~rta1ity Rate (IMR) has declined fran 97 per 1,000 births during the 1971Censusto 68 per 1,000 during the 1981 Census. Early childhood mortality has decreased fran 126 per 1,000 in 1971 to 94 per 1,000 is 1981. A good Primary Health Care record and a canprehensive supplementary feeding of vulnerable groups during the drought years has resulted in reduced malnutrition rates frcm arourrl 30 percent to belON 20 percent. An observed benefit of the s 1 . uPP ementary feeding progranune has been an Increase in the attendance of health facilities by different - xii - categories of vulnerable groups. Overall, at least 85 percent of the population are, on the average, within 15 kilometres of a basic health facility. In spite of positive development in social and economic trends, there is very little room for canplacency. Manychallenges continue to face the government. First, there has been comparatively little participation by Batswna themselves in shaping the practical strategies that have produced positive trends in the economy. A large proportion of producti ve resources are not owned by citizens and a large proportion of the GDP does not accrue to Batswana. The gra..ring excess liquicli ty in the banking system has not adequately met the credi t needs of households and small businesses. Secondly, the proportion of citizens falling bela..r the Poverty D3.tlIDl Line continues to be fairly high. There are, simply, far too many Batswana seeking incanes fran employmentthan there are incane earning opportunities available. Many households are without cattle and unable to benefit fran livestock sales. 'Thesehouseholds are also unable to plough since they do not have draught {XMer of their own. The recent drought has further worsened the situation for social groups who were adversely affected by the 1960s drought spell. A few opportunities in urban areas created new, largely unfulfillErl, hopes for employment and incane generation which led to rapid urbanisation. Thirdly, and by far the IOC>stsignificant challenge, is the alarming rate of population gra..rth. Dueto high (and rising) fertility and lCM (and declining) rortality, the population has attained a yoonger age ccmposition (with 56.6 percent bela..r the 20 years of age) which requires large exper:rlitures on a variety of social services, particularly the provision of schools, health facilities, and housing. The rapid rate of population grCArtll also implies: - xiii - a rise in the d€!llClI'd for food: a decline in household food security and per capita prcduction: increasing depeooence on post-drougiht relief food and commercial food imports: decreasing ability to secure household incanes: increasing livestock numbers held by decreasing proportions of citizens: increasing lam pressure am envirorunental degradation: inefflcient lan:l use practices, etc. In spite of a rapid population growth rate, Botswana has a small IqlUlation (a little over a million) concentrated along a narrCftol strip running North to South along the eastern part of the country. '!he rest of the country is sparsely populated. '!he large territory am a small pcp.1lation will continue to pose logistical problems for manyyears to cane. '!be sparcity of the IqlUla tion, canbined with lCM incane levels in rural areas, increases the costs of providing basic services to where the people live. As a result, per capita experrliture on develOIJllentam maintenance of services, including transport, camnuni.cations am extension networks, has to be greater than in IlOStother countries. With the above prospects am problems, it is clear that future generations have mre canplex challenges than past generations.