- 5 - DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS IN BOTSWANA G.N. SHASTRI Introduction Botswana is a land-locked country with an area of 582,OOOsq. Kms. It shares borders in the North with Zambia, in the North East with Zimbatwe, in the East and South with the Republic of South Africa, and in the West and North West with Namibia. The Eastern region, which straddles the North-South railway line, has llOre fertile soils than the rest of the country, and it is here that IlOst Batswana live (NDP1985 - 91, p.l). In fact, four out of every five Batswana live in the Eastern part of the country. At the national level, the population density works out to be less than two persons per sq.Km. H<:7Never,Botswana is one of the countries with the fastest growing populations in the World. t'lith an average annual growth rate of 3.7 percent, it is above the African average of 2.8 percent, the average for the less developed countries of 2.0 percent and far above the World average of 1.7 percent (see Table Al - Appendix). Botswana's high population growth rate is attributed to high levels of fertility and declining IlOrtality. With the continuation of present deJlO9raphic trends, Botswana's p:>pulation slnIld dooble within a short period of 20 years. It is a well kncw1 fact that, all things being equal, the higher the rate of population growth, the greater the investment required to maintain a constant starxiard of 1iving. - 6 - ~tion Size an:i Grcwth Botswana's pop..tlation is characterized by high fertility, high dependency ratio an:i declining IIOrtali ty. '!he varialS p::>pulationcensuses am estimates of population give a picture of population grc:wth trends in the last eight decades. Table 1 sh(~s that the pop..tlation of Botswana has increased IIOre than '1inefo1d over the last 82 years. While it took 30 years for the 1904 population to doob1e am another 30 years to redouble, the 1964 population dCAlbled within only t1000decades. '!he annual grCMth rate works out to 1.8 percent for the 1964-1971 perioo. This rose to 4.9 percent during the 1971-1981 inter-censa1 period, glvlng an average annual growth rate of '3.6 percent for the 1964-1981period. Table 1: Pqx.Uation Growth in BotSNana 1904-1986 Year ~1ation 1904 120776 1'"Hl 125 350 1921 152 983 1936 265 756 1946 296 310 1956 309 175 1964 514 876 1971 584 644 19R1 941 027 1986 (F..stimate) 1 131 700 ~: CSO,1981 Population and u....•• _. ~ la.JWSlng Census (Draft Report) At the ~dministriitive district level, the size and growth of populatloo varied from '. one dlstnct to anothe A2 (AweMix) gives the population of adnri. •• r •. Table the last thr nlstratlve dlstricts for ee census years as well as growth rates of these - 7 - districts during the inter-censa1 periods. '!he grcwth of rural areas was relatively high during 1971-81 than the corresponding grcwth during 1964-71. '!he grcwth of urban districts was rapid (13.8 percent per annum)between 1964 and 1971 as carpared to the average annual grcwth rate of 10.7 percent for districts during the next intercensa1 period, 1971 - 1981. Gaboronehas been grONingat an unprecedented rate of 17.1 percent per annum between 1964 and 1981. '!he grcwth rate during the inter-censa1 period 1971-81 was highest for Se1ebi-Phikwe, fo11ONed by those for Orapa and Gaborone. It was lONest for Ghanzi and Ngamiland districts. D..1ringthe periods 1964-71 and 1971-81, there was a nvergence tONards the national average anong all the districts with IOC>vements tONards high grcwth rates for rural districts and lONer grcwth rates for urban districts. '!he Central District acca.mted for IOC>rethan one-third of the entire country's population in 1981. '!he district recorded an annual grcwth rate of 4.2 percent between 1971 and 1981, and only 2.8 percent per year over the period 1964-81. '!he remaining districts in Eastern Botswanaregistered grcwth rates ranging fran 3.5 to 4.4 percent per annumbetween 1971 and 1981, except for Kweneng District where the correspoming rate was 5.9 percent. '!he fairly high grcwth of Kweneng (which shares borders and a gcxxi road cormection with Gaborone) is attributed partly to the overspill population fran Gaborone to nearby (Kweneng) villages. Districts in the western part of Botswana have been grONing less rapidly than the rest of the country. '!he grcwth of these districts between 1964 and 1981 ranged fran 1.0 percent for Ghanzi to 2.8 percent for Ngami1and (Chobe and Kgalagadi districts falling between these two points). Populatioo Density and Distribltioo '!he population density in 1981 was very low (1.6 persons per sq.Km) nationally. a:wever, this fact conceals regional, - 8 - district, and urban-rural variations. Fbr example, the western part of the coontry (Kgalagadi, Ghanzi, Ngamiland and 010be) is sparsely pcpllated (alxlut 14 - 15 persons per l00sq.Kms in 1971 am in 1981). In fact, one-third of this part of Botswana is constituted as game reserves. AmI¥j rural districts in 1981 (am in 1971), the South East District and the Barolong Farms area had the highest pcpJlation density (17.2 and 14.1 persons per sq.Km, respectively in 1981) follC7oolEld by North East District with 7.2 persons per sq.Kmand KgatleI¥J District with 5.6 persons per sq.lon. All the other districts had a density of less than fcur persons per sq.Km in the 1971 and 1981 census years. In caJparison, the pc{lU1ation density in urban areas increased fran 204.6 persons per sq.Kmin 1971 to 410 persons per sq.Kmin 1981 as shaom in '!able 2. '!able 2: Pqnlaticn Density by Mmi.nistrative Distict: 1971 and 1981 Pcp.llation Density (persons/sq.lon) District/Area 1971 1981 Ngwaketse 2.6 3.8 Baro1oI¥j 10.0 14.1 South - East 11.3 17.2 Kweneng 1.8 3.3 Kgatlerv:J 3.9 5.6 Central 1.5 2.2 North - East 5.0 7.2 Ngamiland 0.5 0.6 QIObe 0.2 0.4 Chanzi 0.1 0.2 Kgalagadi 0.2 0.2 Urban Areas* 204.6 409.9 All Areas (Coontry) 1.0 1.6 *urban areas include Gaborone Orapa am Jwaneng. ' Francistom, lDbatse, Selebi-Phikwe, Soorce: Cbnpi1ed frca 1981 _.,_ ~~tiQ'l and fblsil¥j Census Results. - 9 - As a result of differential growth among districts, the relative spatial distribution of population by admdnistrative districts has changed, with the share of urban districts increasing and the share of rural districts decreasing in the period 1964-81. '!he Western part of Botswana, covering foor admdnistrative districts (Kgalagadi, Ghanzi, Ngamdland and 010be), accoonted for 61 percent of the land area but only 13 percent of the population in 1981. IX1e to continuous increases in the urban population between 1964 and 1981, the percentage share of Central District (constituting rural areas only) decreased fran 38.8 percent in 1964 to 34.4 percent in 1981. ene-fourth of the coontry's area is covered by this district (see Table 3). It can also be seen from Table 3 that the seven rural districts in the eastern part of Botswana("line-of-rail" belt) accoont for 39 percent of the land area and over 71 percent of the population in 1981. In fact, the strip of laM running from South to North Fast, along the railway line, accoonted for 83 percent of the entire coontry's pc:pllation in 1981 (NDPVI, p.12). '!hus, oot only is the total population size changing rapidly, its distribution in different districts is also changing rapidly. As stated earlier, a great deal of the flow of population is fran rural areas to urban areas. A major reason for the IIOvement of people to urban areas might be prospects of job opportuni ties in these areas. Urbanisation '!he Fifth National Developnent Plan noted that the urban population is growing very rapidly. Froma figure of 63,000 in 1971, it had reached 120,000 by 1978 and mayreach 197,000 by 1984 if present trends continue. lIccording to the 1981 Census, a settlement of 5,000 or IIOre people with 75 percent of its laboor force engaged in non-agricultural employment is considered as an urban area. J\coording to this definition of 'urban', there were eight urban settlements in 1981. '!he urban proportion of the total pc.p.llation grew fran 11.2 percent in - 10 - 'lable 3: Pcp.tlation Distrirotion by Mministrative District: 1964, 1971 and 1981 District Area PrClpOrtionof Population (%) sq.km 1964 1971 1981 Ngwaketse 27 370 4.7 12.6 12.1 11.1 Barolong 1100 0.2 1.9 1.9 1.6 Scuth East 1780 0.3 3.6 3.4 3.3 Kweneng 35 890 6.2 13.2 11.3 12.4 Kgatleng 7 960 1.4 5.7 5.3 4.7 Central 147 730 25.4 38.8 37.0 34.4 North East 5120 0.9 4.9 4.4 3.9 Ngamiland 109130 18.8 8.1 8.8 7.2 Chobe 20 800 3.6 1.0 0.8 0.9 Ghanzi 117 910 20.3 3.1 2.0 2.9 Kgalagadi 106 940 18.4 3.0 2.8 2.6 Urban Areas 366 0.1 4.0 9.3 15.9* All Districts 581 730 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 (Camtry) *Excluding urban areas, Tlokwengand Palapye ~: '!he total of columns maynot add to 100%due to roorrling. Scurce: c.s.o., 1981 Popllation and lbusing Census (Draft Report). 1971 to 17.7 percent in 1981 due to significant amounts of rural to urban migration. 'lhe United Nations Mission Report noted that the annual rate of urbanisation in Botswana is one of the highest in Africa. Between 1971 and 1981, the annual grarth rate of urban settlements varied fran 4.8 percent for IDbatse to 19.6 percent for Selebi-Phikwe. '!be rate of urban grarth is at least twice as high as the rate of increase of the coontry's overall pcpulation. -11 A striking feature of urbanisat ion in Botswana is that 36 percent of the country's total urban population was concentrate1 in the capital city, Garorone, in 1981. '!he population density in Garorone for 1981 works out to be 615 persons per sq.Km. '!his figure is very high canpared to the national average of 1.6 persons per sq.Km. Thlring the period 1971-1981, the population of the capital city, Garorone, increased by 237 percent, fran 17,718 to 59,657 (UNFPA,1984). As reflected in Table 4, GaOOrone and mining towns (Selebi-Phikwe, Orapa and Jwaneng) have gro.m IIOre rapidly during 1971 - 81 than all other parts of the country. '!he absorption capacity of sane of these towns (particularly that of mining ta.ms) is unlikely to be increasing at the same pace as before. GrONth points such as big villages are also expecte1 to grow and attain 'urban' status in the near future. '1hese big villages might attract part of the rural-urban migration stream which otherwise I«)Uldhave gone to the ta.ms. It is estimate1 that by 1991, nearly one-third of the country's population will be living in urban areas. '!he high rate of urbanisation will have an impact on education, employment, housing and health facilities. '!he faster grONth of urban population expecte1 in future is mainly due to: 1) natural increase of population in urban areas, 2) rural-urban migration and 3) inclusion of new ta.mships fran time to time. Age and Sex O:IDposi tien '!he age-sex data fran the last two censuses sluN that Botswana has a very high proportion of the population under 15 years of age (around 48 percent). '!he age distribution sluNs that Botswana's population is acqU1nng a large child base. '!his implies a high grONthpotential for the years to cane. '!he proportion of popu1ation by sex and broad age groups is shown in Table 5. - 12 - Table 4: Pcpu1ation of 'l'ams, 1971 am 1981 Urban Area 1971 1981 Average Annual Census Census Growth Rate for 1971 - 1981 (%) Gal:orone 17 718 59 657 12.9 FrancistONn 18 613 31 065 5.3 lDbatse 11 936 19 034 4.8 Se1ebi-Phikwe 4940 29 469 19.6 Orapa 1 209 5 229 15.9 Jwaneng 5 568 Pa1apye 5 217 9 593 6.3 T10kweng 5906 6 653 5.4 Total Urban 65 539 166 268 9.8 Total Large Villages 89 379 161 574 6.1 All other areas 429 726 613 185 3.6 Percentage Urban 11.2 17.7 Source: Population and }busing Census (Draft Report), 1981 Table 5: Percentage Distriootion of PqULation by Sex and Broad Age Groups, 1971 and 1981 Age Group (years) Male Female 1971 1981 1971 1981 o- 14 51.4 49.9 45.3 45.0 15 - 64 43.0 45.1 49.0 49.6 65+ 5.6 5.0 5.7 5.4 All Ptges 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: Calpiled fran 1981 Population and lbusing Census Reports. - 13 - The pattern of age distribution shown in Table 5 is characteristic of populations with high fertility over a long period. This pattern means that a large proportion of the population is dependent on a relatively small proportion of the econanically active population. In fact, the age dependency ratio (number of ycAlng and old dependents per person in the working ages of 15-64 years) is estimated to be 1.07 for the year, 1986. This means that every 100 persons in the labour force age group will have to sU9?Ort 107 dependents on an average. If we consider the broad age groups sho.m in Table 5, it can be seen that there is very little difference between the 1971 and 1981 age structures. Ha.rever, the 1981 Census data is considered to be of better quality than the 1971 data. The present age structure also implies a higher population growth rate as more and more people enter reproductive ages. Sex canposition is another important demographic characteristic of a population. A significant feature of Botswana's population canposition is the low sex ratio (89 males per 100 females). For the country as a whole, the sex ratio has improved fran 84 in 1971 to 89 in 1981. The increase in the sex ratio, nationally, is also reflected at the district level. The sex ratio in urban areas is favourable to males indicating sex selective migration (of males) fran rural to urban settlements. Between 1971 and 1981 the sex ratio of urban areas, taken as a whole, has dropped fran 117 to 104. This is partly due to increasing numbersof females moving fran rural areas to urban areas, especially to mining to.ms. At the national level, the sex ratio in the 20-40 years age group was only 75 percent in 1981. The prerlcminance of waren in these age groups was due to the fact that a high proportion (25 percent) of menin these age groups were working abroad. But, the number of Batswanaworking abroad has been declining, and this trend is expected to continue (NDPVI, 1985 - 91). - 14 - 'lable 6: Sex Ratio by AdIIinistrative Districts 1971 am 1981 District Sex Ratio (Males per 100 FEmales) 1971 1981 NgNiketse 82 84 Baro10l¥J 88 91 South East 82 87 Kwener¥J 76 84 KgatleD] 84 85 Central 83 86 North East 80 83 N;ramiland 84 87 . Ch>be 93 95 Cblnzi 97 99 Kgalagadi 86 93 Urban Areas 117 104 'lbtal (eamtry) 84 89 ~: PqxllatiQl and fbusiD] Census (Draft Report) 1981 - 17 - J\R.:lelrlix A2: Population by District. 1964 - 1981 Mministrati ve Districts Population GrONth Rate (% per year) 1964 1971 1981 1964-71 1971-81 1964-81 Gaborone 3 812 17 718 59 657 23.0 12.9 17.1 FrancistC7;olll 9534 18 613 31 065 9.4 5.3 7.0 lDbatse 7 499 11 936 19 034 6.5 4.8 5.5 Selebe-Phikwe 4940 29 469 19.6 Crapa 1 209 5 229 15.9 Ngwaketse 64 927 70 758 104 182 1.2 3.9 2.8 Barolong 9 554 10 973 15 471 1.9 3.5 2.8 Sooth East 18 686 20 090 30 649 1.0 4.3 2.9 Kweneng 68 106 65 951 117 127 -0.4 5.9 3.2 Kgatleng 29 579 31 ISO 44 461 0.7 3.6 2.4 Central 199 757 216 058 323 328 1.1 4.1 2.8 North East 25 102 25 806 36 634 0.4 3.6 2.2 N:Jami.land 41 855 51 323 68 063 2.8 2.9 2.9 Chobe 4 982 5 097 7934 0.3 4.5 2.7 Ghanzi 16 132 16 685 19 096 0.5 1.4 1.0 Kgalagadi 15 351 16 337 24 059 0.8 3.9 2.6 COlNl'RY 514 876 584 644 941 027 1.7 4.9 3.5 Source: Central Statistics Office, 1981 Popllation and Fbusing Census (Draft Report) - 18 - ~ix A3: Salient DeB::lgralitic Features of BotSMana 1981 1986 2001 Census (Estimate) (Estimate) Population: Total 941 027 1 131 700 1 896 800 Male 443 104 539 900 917 450 Female 497 923 591 800 979 350 Annual GrONthRate: 3.5 percent (1964 - 1981) Time required for doobling of population: 20 years 1981 Census 1986 (Estimate) Density of population: 1.6 1.9 (persons per sq.km) Proportion of urban to 17.7 20.6 total population (%) Sex Ratio (1981 Census): B9 males per 100 females. Dependency Ratio (1981 Census) 109.8 % of total population aged Broad age canposi tien o - 14 yrs 15 - 64 yrs 65+yrs (1981 Census) 47.3 47.5 5.2 Crude Birth Rate (1981 Census) 47.2 per 1000 Crude Birth Rate (1981 Census) 13.0 per 1000 General Fertility Rate (1981 Census) 210 per 1000 WOOlen aged 15-49yrs Total Fertility Rate (1981 Census) 7.1 Expectation of Life at Birth: Males _ 52.7 years (1981 Census) Females _ 59.3 years Source: Central Statistics Office, (various publications) - 19 - ,.... (D iJ1 ,..... ;r- tJ iJ1 0'2 ,.... LL- CTi ,.... 0 0 0 c 0 0 0 0 0 0 cc 0 0 " 0 t'l - 10 oc . 0 -• 0 0 0 - - UO!+Dlndod C'l 0 ell 0 II) • 0 C'l spuDsno4! IJ! - 20 - BIBLIOORAPHY Central statistics Office, 1983 1981 ation and Ib.1si Census: Census 1ldministrati ve Technical rt and National Statistical Tables. Ministry of Finance and Deve10pnent Planning, Gaborone. 1984 1981 Popllation and Ib.1sing Census - Draft ~, Ministry of Finance and Deve10pnent Planning, Gaborone. Ntlx7.tiwa D. 1981 "Popllation Distriootion and its Implications for Soci<>-Eoonanic Deve10pnent in Botswana" , National Institute for Ibcumentation and Cultural Research. \'hrking Paper No. 43, University of Botswana, Gaborone. Pq:luJ.ation Reference Bureau 1986 "1986 \'hr1d Population rata Sheet", PRB, Washingtoo, !:C. RepJblic of Botswana 1980 National Deve10pnent Plan V, 1979 - 85. Ministry of Finance and Deve10pnent Planning, GaOOrone. 1985 National Deve10pnent Plan VI, 1985-91. Ministry of Finance and Deve10p0ent Planning, GaOOrone. 1986 Report of the All Africa Pop.llation and Deve10pnent Conference for Parliamentarians, May 12 - 16, 1986, Harare, Zimbal::we. Ministry of Health, Gaborone. United Nations FUnd for Population Activities, 1984 Report of a Mission on Needs Assessment for Population Assistance in Botswana, Report No. 79, New York.