Pula: Botswana Journal of African Studies Vol. 15 No 2 (2001)
The impact of HIV/AIDS on mining in Africa:
a Botswana case study
R. T.E/ias
University of Botswana, Civil Engineering
Botswana has undergone rapid socio-economic development since independence, principally due
to the sound management of mining sector revenues. All these advances are in the process of being
reversed by HIV/AIDS, which will affect 19% of the population by end-2000. Sero-positivity
amongst mineworkers exceeds 3D%. A quantitative model is used to forecast the development of the
pandemic over the next 30 years. Indications are that the workforce age projile will begin to alter
radically within 5 years In 5-15 years, recruitment systems will be placed under severe pressure
and mines will experience a potentially critical loss of skills. A jive-year window of opportunity is
available during which to put into place management strategies that deal with the impact of
HIV/AIDS, including: comprehensive testing, treatment of STDs, condom distribution and the
immediate expansion of recruitment and training activities. Failure to do so may compromise the
ability to exploit some of Africa's premier mineral deposits.
Introduction
Botswana is a sparsely populated (estimate I.5M) Southern African Development
Community member state. Since independence in 1966, Botswana has emerged as the
World's largest diamond producer by value, with output likely to exceed 25 Mct in 2000.
Mining has driven one of the highest economic growth rates in the World (21.7% average
annual growth from 1975 to 1995). In 1995, mining accounted for 32.1% of GDP and
76.3% of exports, 93% of which were attributable to diamonds. Mining is likely to
contribute >60% of government revenues for the next decade (MFDP, 1996).
Sound economic management and uninterrupted political stability have resulted in steady
socio-economic and infrastructure development. Botswana also had, prior to HIV/AIDS,
one of Africa's highest life expectancies (62 years in 1985-90) and population growth rates
(3.5%). This has been accompanied by rapid urbanisation, ease of travel on a high quality
road-network and a young population profile with 29% aged below 15 years and 45% aged
between 15 and 49 years (CSO, 1991). Human capital development is prioritised by
government, both to empower citizens and to support economic diversification through the
availability of a skilled workforce. Consequently, education is the largest recipient of
government's development and recurrent expenditure (17.1% and 29.1%, respectively).
Since 1992, annual HIV surveillance has been conducted amongst the 95% of women
who attend antenatal care (CSO, 1998). Projections based on these surveys indicate that
19% of the population will be living with HIV by the end of 2000 (Ministry of Health,
1998). Sero-positivity amongst pregnant women exceeds 40% in the main urban centres.
Mines who have conducted HIV surveillance record sero-positivity of 30-35%. Sub-
Saharan Africa in general and Botswana in particular have the World's highest HIV/AIDS
prevalence rates (UNAIDS, 1999). The combination of a mining dependent economy and
high HIV/AIDS prevalence makes AIDS-impact management in the mining sector a matter
of national importance.
This paper begins by forecasting the impact of HIV/AIDS on a typical mining workforce
under different scenarios. It then goes on to analyse the implications of HIV/AIDS for the
mining sector before reviewing both general impacts and specific issues emerging from
model: in particular, for recruitment and the maintenance of operational skills. The
185
conclusions present strategies for addressing these challenges, especially d~ring the critical
period during which the full impact of AIDS-mo~a.lities is becoming esta?hshed and before
such time as public health initiatives are able to mitigate HIV/AIDS effectively.
HIV/AIDS impact forecasting .
This section uses a simple model to evaluate the broad implications ofHIV/AIDS on mm~s
by quantifying the impact of AIDS-mortalities on the workfor.ce. A thorou~. analYSIS
would require detailed health statistics, social and epidemiological charactenstlcs to be
subjected to sensitivity analysis, which was beyond the scope of this paper.
25%
1_ Frequency % -<>- Cumulatiw % I
100%
20%
75%
15%
50%
10%
5% 25%
0% 0%
24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 Wore
Figure 1: Age distribution July 2000 (n = 197)
The initial population The initial age distribution data-set used by the model was obtained
in July 2000 from the production section of one of Botswana's mining operations (Figure
I). The distribution's relatively high mean age of 38 years 8 months (C = 8 years I month),
stems from a number of factors:
• Major mining operations in Botswana are less than 25 years old, so current retirement
rates are low « 1% in this sample)
• Unemployment is high (21%; Seloilwe, 2000) and alternative jobs are scarce, reducing
the incentive for employees to move
• Recent downsizing exercises have encouraged the redeployment of existing staff rather
than the recruitment of new blood
Model assumptions The initial workforce age distribution was projected in five-year
increments over 30 years from today subject to:
• All staff retiring at age 60
• No resignations or non-AIDS related mortality
• Workforce size remaining constant
• All new employees being aged 20-24 years (mean 22.5) and HIV-negative
• HIV prevalence remaining constant throughout the population during the model period
• AIDS-related mortality occurring in fixed proportions after 5, 10, 15 and 20 years
. • Life expectancy at the beginning of the model period being calculated conservatively
by assuming no HIV-prevalence predating year O.
186
~_ .. ,--_ .._- -----~--_._--~-_ ..-- ------~~--
5-Year Projection 20-Year Projection
25% 40%
20% 30%
15%
20%
10%
10%
5%
0% 0%
24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 Retiring AIDS 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 Retiring AIDS
:: --'~~"~OJ'd:n_ ..... l 40%
30%
25-Year projecti-on~-- ----~
I
15% I 20% I
10% II 10% I
5% I I I
0% II 0%
Retiring A IDS I
_____ ~_~9 34 ~:_~~~~tiring AIDS j\ 24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59
I
--~~~--~~--~~-~---_._--~-~--I ! [
15-Year Projection i I[
30-Year Projection
•I
40% 30% I
25%
I
30% , ~-- I
I
20% :
f---
20% 15% I
---
10%
10%
0%
24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59 Retiring AIDS
5%
0% •
24 29 34 39 44 49 54 59
-
Retiring AIDS
I
I
I
I
----_._---~_ .._~ '----- ----_._-~~~~~- -~~~~~~~~~~---
These conditions are assumed to provide a realistic basis for conservative estimation,
even though several additional variables exist, such as: changes to risk-averse .beha~iour
over time, age and gender related infection rates, the impact of secondary mfectlOns,
sickness-related absenteeism, etc. For example, indications from mines in Botswana are that
absenteeism has risen ten-fold in the past 5 years to an average of 3-4% of total available
person-shifts, which would reinforce the effect of AIDS-mortalities.
Base case model results Figure 2 shows the cumulative results for 5-year periods from
2000-2030, based on the current sectoral HIV prevalence of 30%. Mortality is assumed to
reach 10%,50% and 100% after 5, 10 and 15 years respectively, which is equivalent to an
average post infection life expectancy of 12 years.
The 5-year projection for 2000-2005 closely reflects today's age distribution incremented
by 5 years. Cumulative staff turnover, as indicated by the 20-24 year category, is only 5.6%
in 5 years or around 1% per annum. Consequently, this period is characterised by a
negligible recruitment requirement. AIDS-mortality is likely to be a less significant factor
than retirement or deaths due to other causes, e.g. car accidents. Operational units with less
than 40 staff may not experience any AIDS-related deaths.
It is during the subsequent 5-year period, from 2005-2010, that AIDS begins to impact
significantly. A strongly bi-modal age distribution of new recruits and older employees
emerges and persists over the following decade.
Over the period 2000-2010, some 15.8% (one in 6) of the workforce is expected to die
because of AIDS, with an additional 10.7% retiring. Replacing a quarter of the workforce
over one decade should be within the capability of existing mine HR systems. However, the
non-linear impact of AIDS is likely to mean that recruitment requirements towards 2010
may significantly exceed the 4.2%, or one in 24, annual average for the period. AIDS-
deaths are likely to affect around 1 in 7-8 positions between 2005 and 2010.
By 2010-2015, the workforce age distribution will have radically altered. Projected staff
turnover reaches 35.2%. This means that less than two thirds of the workforce will have
more than 2.5 years of experience. AIDS-related deaths will affect one in four positions
during this five-year period. The loss of overall experience coupled with the significant
potential for mortalities at supervisory and management levels, indicates the very real
possibility of major skills shortages in key areas affecting productivity and operational
viability.
The 20-25 year projections, covering the period 2015-2025, show AIDS-related deaths
stabilising at around 3.9%, or 1 in 25, per annum. Retirements, which are purely a function
of the present day age distribution, also peak during this p~riod. This in turn leads to high
annual recruitment levels of 5.2-6.2%, or one in 16-19, being required for a decade.
By 2025-2030, the long-term age distribution is established. This is characterised by a
skewed, truncated pattern whose mean and variance depend primarily on AIDS mortality
characteristics. Retirement is of negligible importance as few workers survive to 60. For
comparison, current life expectancy in Botswana is 47 (UNAIDS, 2000). It takes the model
a further 5-10 years, i.e. 35-40 years from now, before AIDS mortalities and recruitment
levels begin to stabilise at around 28% every five years, or 5'.6% (one in 18) per annum.
HIV/AIDS impact on recruitment and experience The model expresses AIDS-impact
through the need to fill vacancies due to mortalities, which is a recruitment issue. Another
consequence is the change in the workforce's age distribution. This can be approximated by
~v~rage ages, ~hich indirectly correlate with the operational skills base of the organisation,
Its human capital' (Figure 3).
188
45 40%
43 35%
41 II>
30%:i;
&39
c( 37
25%~
ell 'l: f!
Cl35 20%11 '"
~ 33 15%~ ~
> 2
c( 31
10%li:
29 0::
5%
27
25 0%
o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years from Present
Figure 3: Base case model long term trends in average ages and
5-year cumulative recruitment.
30%
II
Cl
::t
41
39
25%
20%
..
II>
II
>
0
c( 37
II
C f!
Cl 35 15% II '"
~ 33
~~
:0
> 10% ::;
c( 31
29 5%
&
27
25 0%
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years from Present
Figure 4: Scenario 1 long-term trends for HIV-prevalence
reduction from 30% to 20%.
40%
45
8.
43
41
39
~
,A I-<>-AV9. Age i
i -<>- Recruitment!
35%
30%
..
II>
II
>
o
25%
c( 37 c f!
20%
& 35
~~
II '"
~ 33 15%
2
~ 31 10% u
29 &
5%
27
0%
25
o 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Years from Present
Figure 5: Scenario 2 long-term trends for increase in life
expectancy from 12 to 17 years.
189
These two parameters behave in a complimentary manner: average age falling. as
recruitment rates rise. For the base case, recruitment rates increase 5-fold over the perIod
2005-2015, peaking at ten times current levels before stabilising at a turnover of 25-30%
every 5 years. After remaining artificially high, because of low retirement rates, average
age plummets over the period 2010-2020 reaching a low of26 years, or only 44 months of
work experience, before stabilising in the range 28-30 years (average 7 years work
experience).
The timing of these shifts reflects the assumed average AIDS life expectancy of 12 years.
As the model does not make any assumptions about employees who are HIV-positive prior
to year zero, i.e. 2000, these shifts are actually likely to occur earlier.
Alternative scenarios The simplicity of the model limits its use as a tool for analysing
complex scenarios, but two basic ones are discussed:
Scenario 1: The consequences of reduced HIV prevalence, e.g. through systematic
behavioural changes
Scenario 2: The consequences of increased life expectancies, e.g. through the use of
medical treatment
Figure 4 shows average age and recruitment trends for Scenario I, where HIV-
prevalence is reduced from 30% to 20%. Although the patterns are broadly similar to the
base case model, the peak and average age trough are less pronounced. Recruitment per 5-
year period peaks around 28% from 2010-2020, compared to 35.2% in the base case, and
stabilises around 20% compared to 27%. Average ages fall to 30.5 years in 2015-2020,
equivalent to approximately 8 years of work experience, climbing by 1-2 months per annum
thereafter.
Figure 5 illustrates Scenario 2, where life expectancy is increased from the base case's
12 to 17 years, whilst maintaining 30% HIV prevalence. This is achieved by altering the
mortality distribution to 5%, 15%,40% and 100% after 5, 10, 15 and 20 years respectively.
Apart from offsetting the recruitment peak and average age trough by 5 years as
anticipated, the patterns are notably more oscillatory. With the exception of the period from
2015-2020 when it peaks at 35.2%, recruitment averages at 4-5% per annum. Although
average ages generally remain higher, in the range 30-35 years, there is still a significant
minimum of27 years (52 months average work experience) during the period 2020-2025.
Summary of model results Starting from the present day, the following emerge as
significant trends, patterns and events:
• The initial age distribution found in mines results in low retirement rates for the next 5
years
• Retirements will be more or less eliminated by AIDS-mortalities within 30 years
• Annual AIDS-mortalities will affect approximately one in 200 staff over the next 5
years, rising to one in 40 by 10 years and remaining between one in 20-25 thereafter
• Recruitment levels will increase sharply over the coming 10-15 years and may peak
above 7% of the workforce per annum before stabilising around 5-6%.
• Over the next 30 years, the age distribution of the workforce will undergo a major
transition: from today's normal distribution with 90% of ages between 25 and 55 years
about a mean and mode of 40 years, to 90% of ages between 20 and 45 with a mean of 30
and a mode of25.
190
~ Bem:een 10 and 30 years from now, the age distribution will be strongly bimodal, with
mcreasmg numbers of young and decreasing numbers of older employees. During this
period, the effective average age is likely to be even lower due to the biasing effect of the
progressively aging 'older' portion of the population. Loss of experience is consequently
expected to be, if anything, worse than expected .
• The base case and scenarios show at least a 5 year period during which recruitment
peaks and average ages slump, potentially to unsustainable levels, before these
parameters stabilise.
Implications of HIV/ AIDS on African mining
Much has been written about the broader implications of HIV/AIDS and readers are
referred to the website of UNAIDS as an excellent source of
literature and statistics. General issues are only dealt with briefly and the main discussion
will focus on specific consequences of the previously presented model.
General impacts Two of the principal concerns at national level are the reversal in
economic gains and the reduction in life expectancy that result from HIV/AIDS. Having
reached 62 years in 1985- I990, the highest in Africa at the time, life expectancy in
Botswana had by 1998 fallen to 47 (UNAIDS, 2000).
Of direct concern to the mining sector is the increase in opportunistic infections that is
symptomatic of high and growing HIV/AIDS morbidity. Hospital costs can represent a
significant proportion of production costs, particularly where employers endeavour to
provide high standards of health care or where they fulfil a community health-care role.
Over the next 5 years, it is anticipated that bed-occupancy rates will approach and exceed
100% due to high readmission rates. Treatment costs will also escalate, with obvious
consequences for overall costs.
Providing care for people living with AIDS (PLWA) and orphans will inevitably prove to
be beyond the resources available to Health Ministries in developing countries. Regardless
of government initiatives, it is clear that the burden of care will increasingly fall onto those
in employment. Household earnings are likely to be reduced, whilst expenditures increase,
resulting in a trend to greater deficits and [mancial hardship. Although mining is usually not
the largest employment sector, it generally provides a relatively reliable source of income
for its workforce. Mine employees will inevitably become key players in providing support
to extended family members affected by HIV/AIDS.
Projected single digit growth rates in developing countries national products are
insufficient to provide the additional revenues that governments will require to meet the
greater health and education expenditures resulting from HIV/AIDS in the coming decades.
It can be anticipated that important foreign currency earners, such as mining operations,
will see increases in direct and indirect taxation as a result.
Human capital impacts The primary features of the model are the antithetic trends of
recruitment and average age. Once prevalence reaches the levels of 20-30%, as is the case
in sub-Saharan Africa, HIV/AIDS imposes such a dramatic cap on the life expectancy that
it becomes extremely difficult to maintain skills within the workforce' particularly if these
take more than 5 years to acquire. Although the model does not consider the possibility of
recruiting experienced people to fill vacancies, the pandemic is so widespread that it will
affect the entire pool of potentially eligible employees.
Unless measures are taken to directly address life expectancy in infected populations
through medical intervention, the base case and scenarios suggest that no more than 5 years
from today, i.e. by 2005, recruitment requirements will begin to rise dramatically.
191
Indications are that the proportion of AIDS-mortalities will rise to one in 20-25, or more,
per annum. Operations or sections featuring high levels of specialis~ or ~upervisory sk~lls,
e.g. technology-rich, mechanised or large mines; maintenance, engmeermg a~d t~chnlcal
sections; or mineral processing plants, will increasingly struggle to mamtam core
competencies.
The sexual behaviour of individuals in senior management positions is a major issue. If
prevalence within this group is comparable with the average, commensurate levels of
mortality will impact directly on organisational planning and management capabilities.
These are areas in which skills take perhaps a decade or more to be developed and are
difficult to replace.
Policy impacts Although critical to the well being of mining operations, HIV/AIDS
containment policy is a specialist area that is outside of the scope of this discussion.
Nevertheless, it is appropriate to highlight some of the more significant issues that
stakeholders, i.e. government regulators, unions and employers, need to address.
Perhaps the most controversial of these is the issue of HIV testing and confidentiality.
Although discrimination because of infection is not to be encouraged, it is important to
recognise that the viability of some operations may be compromised, particularly at high
prevalence rates. Similarly, employees requiring lengthy preparatory trairIing need to be
able to complete this and apply the acquired skills in order to add value in the workplace.
Large-scale anonymous testing is therefore an essential prerequisite for robust plannirIg,
with implications for the design of health programmes, training and staff development,
recruitment and the early detection and treatment of opportunistic infections.
HIV/AIDS considerations need to be incorporated into benefit policies, not only because
of its effect on life expectancy and the chronic nature of infection, but because of the need
to determine what sort of financial assistance should be made available to infected staff or
those responsible for PLWA.
Finally, there is the vital importance of ensuring safety against work-place injuries.
Managing HIV/AIDS impact at the mine level
Despite considerable investments in awareness programmes, none have achieved the
desired result of positively altering high-risk behavioural patterns. Surveys conducted at the
University of Botswana indicate that the most effective tool in providing awareness is the
radio, which has four times more impact than work-based education schemes.
Unfortunately in Botswana, knowledge, regardless of its origin, does not appear to
influence social behaviour significantly (Seloilwe, 2000). Although it is critical not to
abandon these efforts, it is evident that most organisations have yet to design AIDS-
education strategies that effectively communicate with their target groups.
The two most effective measures in controlling HIV/AIDS are the treatment of STDs and
the aggressive promotion of condom distribution. Other practical steps that all organisations
should take include:
• Incorporating HIV/AIDS record keeping and monitoring into systems of medium to
long-term mine planning
• Co-ordinating mv/AIDS activities, especially with plarming and HR
At this stage, it is necessary to acknowledge that stakeholders must seek to actively
manage the situation and not rely on being able to change social behaviour.
192
Managing recruitment The position in which mines currently find themselves is
challenging. Intensive efforts to effect behavioural changes in employees are still to yield
results, yet despite dire warnings AIDS-mortalities are not significant, although
absenteeism arguably is becoming so. Simultaneously, efforts to improve productivity
combined with the erosion of competitiveness due to global market forces, have established
conditions under which sometimes substantial downsizing of workforces is taking place.
Recruitment is simply not a priority. The risk is that this situation will be assumed to
remain constant, whereas the model shows that staff turnover will change quite suddenly
and in an ever-accelerating fashion 5-15 years from now.
The recruitment and subsequent staff development process is the most direct way in
which employers can control the makeup of their workforces, but this is a long-term
process. In production environments, where work experience is a critical element, a
significant proportion of the training is commonly conducted on the job under formal and
informal mentoring arrangements. Consequently, there will be limits on the capability of
any organisation to absorb and develop new staff.
Logically, most organisations are capable of turning over their workforce within the
average period of employment. For example, mines should be able to replace 3-4% of the
workforce annually, which is equivalent to saying that the average worker is in employment
for 25-30 years. By comparison, the model indicates that annual recruitment requirements
could exceed 7%. Whether this is sustainable depends on the point at which
accommodating recruits becomes an unacceptable cost, e.g. through its impact on
productivity. This will vary between mines and within sections, but is clearly a parameter
that needs to be determined.
Future peak recruitment requirements can be offset by increasing presentday recruitment;
creating a staff surplus that can be offset against future needs. Maintaining a consistent
level of recruitment has the advantage of enabling appropriate recruitment systems to be
established and maintained, with the expectation that these would be more cost effective
than situations where recruitment targets are changing radically over short time-scales. The
recruitment requirements of the model over the next 20 years are equivalent to a constant
annual turnover of 4-5%. This rate would address, but still not meet, long-term
requirements if AIDS continues on its present course, unless life expectancies can be
increased and/or prevalence rates reduced. In the short-term, such a policy would increase
the workforce by 15-20%, although this figure would be mitigated by the already high and
still increasing rates of absenteeism.
To further evaluate this argument it would be necessary to analyse the potential impact of
the peak in recruitment requirements that is expected in 10-15 years time and, more
specifically, the potential implications on profitability of being unable to meet this need for
new employees. A potential advantage of initiating a positive recruitment policy now, is
that the pool of potential employees is still large. In future, it will become increasingly
difficult for employers to be selective as more players are forced to address AIDS-impact.
One of the most significant features of the model is the dramatic, albeit short-lived,
collapse in the average age of the workforce. This can be countered by selectively
recruiting individuals with appropriate amounts of experience who are specifically
earmarked to fill the anticipated gap in the 30-40 year group. This group, which currently
provides the bulk of mines' experiential human resource reserves, is precisely the one that
projections indicate will be decimated by AIDS in the medium term.
Before moving on, it is worth revisiting the issue of routin~ ~esting. If ~xcess compliment
is maintained on short-term contracts, this allows for legltIDlate testmg as part of the
contract renewal process. Politically, testing issues could be mitigated by the provision of
additional employment.
193
Managing training and development Many developing countries are ~rioritisi~g
investments in education, with the result that the available pool of talent IS steadily
increasing. Higher employee turnovers therefore offer companies a real opportunity. to
develop a more skilled and flexible workforce, which is better able to adapt to changmg
technologies and work practices.
AIDS' impact on skills will be two-fold. Firstly, will be the need to rapidly incorporate
new staff into the workforce. Secondly, and more critically, is the necessity to cover
essential technical and supervisory skills that traditionally take time to develop. Currently,
most mine training is reactive, aiming primarily at providing essential skills or filling
anticipated vacancies. However, once annual turnovers reach 5-7% different strategies will
be needed. Experienced front-line supervisors and skilled artisans, who generally need to be
available locally, are likely to be the most difficult group to replace; and acute shortages at
this level could potentially threaten operations.
In Botswana, a collaborative technical training venture involving government and the
mining sector was launched in 1994. Specifically aimed at preparing operators to move into
supervisory positions, it allowed the identification of three factors that significantly impact
on the potentials~ess of training and development programmes: accessibility,
motivational strategies and integration.
Many educational institutions are adopting modular life-long learning frameworks. These
are intrinsically flexible, in terms of both their structure and their mode of delivery, which
can be by full-time and part-time study, distance or web-based education. Access to
learning opportunities and easy integration of training into the workplace is facilitated as a
result. Furthermore, where training systems operate within a national qualifications
framework, the ability to obtain recognisable and transferable qualifications becomes a
powerful motivational factor encouraging individuals to actively participate.
In terms of learning content, mines need to adopt a less rigid attitude. It is important to
acknowledge that environments in which multi-skilling is important require learners to have
broad background skills, opportunities to quickly and effectively acquire new skills and an
incentive to develop skills that are not necessarily required immediately, but may be in
future.
Currently, training is often compromised in favour of production targets, particularly
where it is not seen to be essential or where it cannot deliver measurable short-term
benefits. However, the previous section's arguments for increasing workforces over the
next decade would provide the necessary flexibility, because of overstaffmg, to allow the
proportions of training time to be increased. An advantage of this approach would be that
skill levels could be substantially increased, providing a buffer against the anticipated loss
of competencies 10-20 years from now..
Conclusions
The features of the model have already been summarised, but it is worth reiterating the
following critical points:
The principal impact of HlY/AIDS will be on staff turnover and the amount of
experience available within the workforce, both will reach levels where totally new
approaches will be required
The composition of mine workforces in the future will be significantly different from
today, younger, less experienced and increasingly volatile
.Mines wi~1come under .ev~r-greater pressure to support nations suffering abnormally
high AIDS-Impacts. Both mdlrectly through providing the salaries of staff who are the
focus of support networks, and as corporations that are vital sources of foreign exchange.
194
Instead of focussing on AIDS initiatives aimed at encouraging behavioural changes,
mines must concentrate on strategies for dealing with the consequences of AIDS. Unless
massive investments are made in medical treatment, no more than 5 years are available to
implement these strategies.
Comprehensive, anonymous testing must be introduced as soon as possible to provide
accurate data that will allow effective planning. This should be coupled with intensive
efforts to treat STDs and distribute condoms, as the two currently
Recruitment should be stepped up immediately (a rule of thumb being to recruit 1.5% of
workforce per 10% of present day HIV -prevalence), with the aim of creating a buffer
against the rapid increases in AIDS-mortality and AIDS-related absenteeism that are
anticipated 5-15 years from now.
Training programmes should be incorporated into this recruitment policy in order to
target those skills, currently residing primarily in the 30-40 year age group.
Perhaps the greatest potential threat to Africa's mining industry is the loss of
competitiveness that may result from AIDS. A position is being faced where a strategic
sector is being threatened by completely new forces, which are quite capable of making
World-class deposits unexploitable and increasing the risk associated with mineral resource
development on the African continent.
Notes
Address: Private Bag 0061, Gaborone, Botswana (eliasrt@mopipi.ub.bw). The author wishes to thank
all members of the Botswana Mining Council for providing unrestricted access to HIV/AIDS
information. The manuscript benefited from the input of Dr Esther Seloilwe of the University of
Botswana AIDS Task Force. This work was supported by the University of Botswana Research and
Publication Committee.
References
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (1991) National Census~Government Printer, Gaborone, Botswana
Central Statistics Office (CSO) (1998) Medical Statistics, Government Printer, Gaborone, Botswana
Government of Botswana (1998) Seventh Sentinel Surveillance Report, Ministry of Health,
Government Printer, Gaborone, Botswana
Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP) (1996) Draft Macroeconomic Outline for
National Development Plan 8~Government Printer, Botswana
Seloilwe E (2000) Managing HIV/AIDS in the University of Botswana (UB): A Case Study,
Unpublished Manus.
UNAIDS (2000) Report on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic: Additional data,
195