This essay challenges received wisdom that the problems facing the Botswana National Front (BNF) began in 1984 when a number of the ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) members began defecting to the BNF, by tracing the BNF predicament to 1969. At the height of the BNF's growth in the mid 1990s there was optimism in some quarters that it was poised to take power from the BDP in the 1999 general elections. Amidst this optimism in 1998 a Zambian prophet, Doctor Francis Ng'ombe, predicted that no opposition party would attain power for the next 15 years. The prediction was heavily condemned by opposition activists. Interestingly, since 1998 the BNF has been plagued by factional fighting and splits. Though there is still about a decade to go, Ng'ombe's prediction seems not far off the mark. The paper also addresses the views of civil society on the BNF tragedy. It concludes by arguing that the movement of people from the opposition to the BDP being currently experienced could in the long run work against the BDP, putting it in a situation similar to the one that has paralysed the BNF.
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