The Dimensions of Drought in Botswana
          M. T. Hinchey Ed. Proceedings of the Symposium
        on Drought in Botswana, Botswana Society and Clark
                   University Press Gaborone 1979.
Botswana is a drought prone country, as is widely known. The
basic reasons for this are its semi-arid environment with its
~elatively low and variable supply of resources to society,
 1tS high and steadily growing demand for such resources as a
result of rising activity levels in the rural areas, and
certain changes or the lack thereof, in land use systems and
environmental   resource management.     These general observations
follow from an interdisciplinary      view of an environmental
hazard such as a shortage of rainfall as it operates within
an ecological complex.     Drouqht is more than just an un-
avoidable instance of climatic mishap occuring frequently in
semi-arid regions; low rainfall becomes a drought when it
leads to a shortage of some food for which society has a
demand (cf. Sandford, 1977). And in the context of Botswana's
sOcio-economic   structure, the two most crucial rainfall
dependent commodities are cereals for its human, and grazing
for its cattle population.      Looking at grazing supply as it
varies with rainfall, Eastern Botswana faces the likelihood
of a severe drought (possible downward adjustment in stock
numbers of up to 25% or so) once every five year, according
to Sandford (1977, 1979).     The Botswana Society rightl~
launched the idea of a symposium on drought, and it was held
in June 1978.    Its objectives were to analyse the nature of
drought, to review ways in which societies have responded to
it and to evaluate steps which Botswana might con"idcr to
prepare for drought.    A discussion of the Symposium's pro-
ceedings in Pula, is warranted - even though it is late.
Over 30 papers and speeches have been presented and discussed,
mostly under 3 major captions: Physical Aspects, Social
Aspects Combating and Ameliorating Drought.
Within a global trend toward greater rainfall variability,
Southern Africa faces a likelihood of more below average
rainfall years in the '80s. Given the highest ever pressure
on Botswana's environment, extended droughts might occur.
This is the gloomy prediction of the section on physical
aspects (Cooke, TysOn).     Even though the number of rainfall
independent water points can still be increased, it would not
counter the threat of drought, as additional boreholes are of
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little use without good grazing to accompany them (Wilson).
Increasing numbers of people and stock will - given present
management and technology - increase environmental         pressure
and replacement levels of renewable resources will bec~ne
lower than use levels; environmental degradation and reduced
carrying capacities will then result (Grove).         Various other
papers put the Botswana conditions in the wider context of
the (semi) arid 9art of Africa.       This section is rounded off
by an outline of a monitoring system of rainfall,desertifica-
tion etc. based on satellite imagery and aerial photography
 (Verstapper) .
The next section reviews social and cultural adaptations to
conditions in semi-arid African environments        focussing of
course on Botswana (hunter-gatherers,       pastoralists,   agricul-
turalists).    Such adaptations range from fission of groups,
to outright migration of communities,       including nomadic live-
stock holding, tributary payments of harvest shares, marriage
patterns etc.    Two contributions    in this section stand out:
the lucid analysis by Campbell of the 1960s drought in
Botswana, and Devitt's brief but relevant linkinq of the
impact of droughts to socio-economic       stratification.   Campbell
concludes that it was "not just the drought which killed the
cattle, but also prior overgrazing"       (p. 108).   Furthermore,
foot-and-mouth diseases risks become larger in a drought.
Another one of his points, namely that it is likely to be
the smaller stock-holders who are most affected by the drought,
is elaborated upon by Devitt who discusses the concepts of
'critical herd size' and 'concertina economy'.         The former
concept expresses that herds below a certain size are more
drought-susceptive   and possibly fundamentally unsustainable.
The latter concept implies that in a drought the environmental
resource niche occupied by a social stratum, will be invaded
by people from the stratum one notch up, etcetera, ultimately
increasing competition for resources at the very base of the
stratification, even to the degree of forcing some of the
poorest out of the community.      Drought impacts are not neutral
from a social justice point of view, and drought contingency
programmes mus~ take this into account.
The final 100 pages before the conclusions discuss information
systems and networks for dealing with drought.         "Modern"
science and technology is presented side by side with "ethno-
scientific" information (Berry and Ford, p. 166).          The role
of the Institutional Food Programme and nutritional survei-
llance as a monitoring and planning device are described.
Various papers discuss impacts on agricultural activity and
output levels (Jones on arable farming; Ward on Livestock) .
After papers on cattle production research and TGLP, Alidi
rounds off this section by pointing at some approaches to
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avoid long-term ecological damage.       Education and training
come first, as ways of changing basic but unsustainable
attitudes on the desirability of large herds, and of changing
farming practices, because "the fact remains that overgrazing
and over-exploitation   of our natural resources, not rainfall
deficiency, are the main causes of drought" (p. 268).
The Conclusion presents two pages, one by Molosi on Botswana's
future strategy, and one by Sandford, summing up the proceed-
ings.   Molosi argues for flexible, action-oriented strategy
aimed at alleviation of problems.      This Symposium had in his
view provided much of the data on which to base a national
drought relief plan.
Reading the proceedings more than 3 years after the Symposium,
with one short duration drought in-between, one is struck by
the lack of actual information on impacts of drought on
various socio-economic groups and their activities.        Apart
from various proposed assumptions with regard to such impacts,
the Sympoi~m   proceeded by discussing physical and macro-
economic dimensions mainly.     The latter it has done admirably,
and the former may simply have been impossible at the time.
The Symposium came in time to gear attention to drought, just
one year before a short duration drought hit the Batswana crop
farmers in 1978/79.    Government action was needed to "alle-
viate" the problems to people (and to a limited degree: to
cattle).   Both the impacts of drought on various economic
data, and the alleviative power of government actions have
been intensively researched since.      The Botswana Government
should now be in a much better position (informationwise) to
formulate a drought relief plan, and to direct it spefically
at groups of people who need assistance most.       Just in time,
we can but hope, before the predicted drought period in the
'80s commences.    It remains a pity, that Government action
still has to take the form of curative "relief" plans rather
than preventive action.    The latter would require the will to
enforce and the power to effectuate stock control policies,
and both appear to be absent.     But this holds true for quite
a large number of other African countries.
REFERENCES
Sandford,  S.  "Dealing with Drought    and Livestock  in Botswana"
               London 1977.
Sandford,  S.  "Toward a Definition of Drought" Proceedings      of
               Symposium of Drought, Gaborone 1979.
                 JOHANNES  B. OPSCHOOR
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