Schooling and The Labour Markd:,
                      Some Tanzania               Trends.
                                                       ,~,(aJllf J 01.    VIJ No. 2 1985. Jou~na[ oJ
                                                                                        J
   J.C G,,!ahawa                                       il!e {{lcda'       of'.l r/slI1(t 5fJ(la{ SCle1/(:es •
  Leclurer, Departmenl q( Education                    •~ifliVf!!"jil.\: (~iDare.\ Suhmlll
  Unirersily of Dar es Salaam
The Argument
      The main purpose of this article is to emphasise, as has been argued by
other writers, that education and indeed the curriculum playa very subordinate
role in employment creation for schoolleavers. Unemployment amongst school
leavers should not therefore be viewed as it problem resulting from the wrong
curriculum, TfJere is much historical evidence to show that from classical colonial-
ism up to the Musoma Resolution' in 1974 the curriculum has been given an
agricultural, commercial and wchnical bias. Neverthckss, this dhersification of
curriculum has not been abie to solve the l win problems of under-employment
and unemployment. The root'. of this hnvcto be sought both in the political
economy and, in particular, in the employment trends. the lalter never having
been concentrated in agricu\turnJ or technical fields. Manifested in-these trends
are patterns of investment which divert national resources away from produc-
tive sectors into formal schooling and over-extended, unproductive estab-
lishments.
Tbe Problem
      Politically, Tal17:anian primary schools are supposed to be complete and
sufficient for the needs of y6ung people, a view which has now attained or-
thodoxy alTIong both politicians and schoo! administrators. However, in real terms
primary schooling is increasingly incapable of meeting this objective, not be-
cause of a faulty curriculum, but because of what goes on outside the school.
Neither society at large, nor indeed the economy itself, are capable of meeting
the demand that primary schooling be complete in itself.
      I\ttoongh, the mechanics of educational planning and the sectoral employ-
ment patferns appear to favour the generation, realisation and application of
rTvdd!c and high level manpower, evidence as given for example by the Jill (1980),
st:.nw~~ha~ there is lit~le I?l~nning .o.f th.e use ?f manp?wer at the lower .levels
01 cu.,,;a'j!Jn ,;ad skills. - fhe utlhzatlc!1 of the entire output                          of pnmary
schools, post-primary craft centres and tradt sc:1001s, for example, does not seem
to be reg,'rded as the proper objective of ma"',p0'.vc:r planning. This would tend
to sug~(.;~,t;,erefore that, even with a di'vosifkd curriculum, without creating
an llb~ui:'t:ve capacity in the economy, the created pool of skilled labour re-
mains ~!llcmrloyed and the impact of thc- chall~ed curriculum is minimal.
      Id'.::ully, in pJannedeconomies,the resm':lc~ u~Uisatioll criterion requires cen-
traJcOllti 0/ and planning in the creation of cor.ditioDS and institutions in order
to allo,\<unskilled lahol'! W be used in produ::tion. ThIS may take different forms,
but in the end employment creation, whe'h:r wage or self employment in both
rural and 1,;i ban economies, has t () be one of i ht: maJor objectives of manpower
planning LxHes if schoulleaver destablising dfe:::t:; are to be avoided.


        .. For Thnzania, actual employment creation is one of the major implicit ob-
       JectIves of the Arusha Declaration which was proclaimed in 1967. This focussed
       attention on three factors.vital to the issue of how future development was to
       be planned. These were (1) removal of rural/urban income inequalities, (2) self-
       rel1ance, and (3) development of agriculture, which at a broad level implied rural-
       based development.3
            The Arusha Declaration thetefore suggested that agriculture was to be the
       backbone of the economy by providing the basis for future.develoment, as it
       presented significant opportunities for generating increases in national income
       and in creating employment. But even with this emphasis, the employment cre-
       ation trends that have taken place in Tanzania do not appear to be concentrated
       in agriculture or manufacturing. This, as I have argued, would tend to suggest
    , that the diversification of the curriculum and its rural bias is not reflected in
       the economy. The utiHsation and employment of schoolleavers does not mean
       an end of the schooling cycle problem; it is rather a product of school and soci-
       ety production breakdown.
      Some tentative trends and hypotheses
      Trend and hypothesis 1
            Tanzania's employment opportunitie~ have been concentrated in the, serv-
      ice sector'of the economy. This pattern of cqncentration of.employmellt In the
      service sector does not correlate with the heaVy emphasis laid on agricultural
      and technical schooling. Rather, it is a consequence of the structural pat!ern
      of industrialisation which with its relatively low levels of employment creation,
      together with the displacement of labour from the land, has th.e effect of prema-
     turely concentrating eIIlployment in the service sector of the economy.           , .
        . Most of the data supporting this hypothesis has been found from the Statlstl-
• ," cal Abstracts of 1960 1966 and 1973 and various economic surveys conducted
                             ".
      by the Central Statistical    Bureau in Dar es_Salaam. 41 In an al'ysmg t hd
                                                                                 e ata, I
      have used simple absolute value and cross tabulation analysis.•.applying correla-
      tion tests where necessary. It should be noted that statistics prior to 1960 a.re
       not strictly comparable with those of recent years owing to the use of a dlff
     erent method of enumeration.
      Sectoral Distribution     of 'Thnzania's Labour Force
            For the period immediately after independence (1961)and before the Arusha
      Declaration (1967), I look at the sectoral distribution of employees by private
      enterprise and public services. Figures for the period 1964-1965 show that em-
      I!loyment opportunities were concentrated in private enterprise with contribu-
      tIons o! 0.70 and 0.72 of total wage employment for thesears 1964 and 1965
      respectIvely, as shown in Table 1.
                                              T~1
                                  Employees by Sector 1964 - 1965
     Sector                                                          1964             1965
      Private enterprise                                          246.4'6          24',810
                                                                    (0.10)           (0.721
      ~bUc Services                                               103,801           94,68G
                                                                    (0.30)  'r       (0.28)
     lOI'AL
                                                                  3'1,257          34G,49O


          Contributions by the public services sector were 0.30 and 0.28 for the years
    1964 - 1965 respectively. This would tend to suggest that the private enterprise
   sector was a major employer by then. However. a better absolute value analysis
   is portrayed in Table 2 which gives the distribution of employees by sector and
   main industrial divisions as of 1965.
          From Table 2. it can be seen that the main industrial divisions maintained
   the same rank in accordance with their proportional contribution to total em-
   ployment in both the private enterprise and public services sectors. Mining,
   manufacturing and construction taken together contributed 0.17 and 0.2 of to-
   tal employment in the private sector for the two years.respectively. This was a
  ~littlc lower than the combined contribution of commerce. services. public utili-
   ties and transport which was 0.22 for 1964 and 0.24 for 1965. In the public serv-
   ice sector the picture also favours the unproductive sectors of commerce. services.
   public utilities and transport which contributed 0.7 of total employment in both
   years. as compared to 0.21 and 0.12 which were the contributions of manufac-
   turing. mining and construction in the two years ..
                                                    Table 2
     Employees by Sector and Main Industrial Divisions as at 30th January           1965 (as Proportions
                                      of Total Sector Employment)
   Main Division                      Prh'llte Enterprise                         Public Service
                                   1964                  1965               1964              1965
  Agricult ure, torestry            0.62                 0.56             .0.10                O.Il
  Minin!! and Quarrying             0.03               .0.03              0.001              0.001
  !\Ianufacturing                   0.09     (0.17)      0.11   (0.20)      0.01   (0.22)     0.01    (0.12)
  Construction                     0.05                  0.06               0.21               0.11
  Electricity and .Water          0.007                  0.01               0.02              0.02
  Commerce                         0.07                  0.08              N.A.              N.A.
                                             (0.22)             (0.24)              (0.7)              (0.7)
  Transport,   Communication       0.04                  0.05               0:16'             0.15
  Servfces                          0.10                 0.10               0.49              0.51
  Source: Statistical Abstract, t966, p. 156, conversions     by tire author.
         The employment levels in agriculture shQwed a downward trend. while those
  in ser~ices expand.ed. Within the public sector there was a decline in employ-.
  mem mconstructlOn;
         More recent. trends in wage employment are shown in Table 3.
      . Table 3 ind;cates the following: First. the contribution of private enterprise
 a~nculture to wage ~mployment has fallen sharply for the period 1977-1.979
 compareJ ;to the penod .1.964-:-1?65. Secon~ly. the c()ntrjb~tion of wage em-
 ployment ~n manu.facturmg. !"m~~~, quarrymg and. construction continued to
 be lower t ,3l!- that In the publIc utilItIes~ commerce. fmance and general services.
        ~) obtam a broad pIcture qrwage employment trends. I computed gro~th
.rates Ill: .percemages for the peno(j t9M:-1978 and the industrial employment
 annuahsed compound ~fQwtft f{lt~ luJlOwn in Thbles 4 and 5..


                                                  llable 3
    Proportional contributions to Wage Em~'oyment by Major IndulltriJiJDi~oll8           (1977-1979)
                                                  Table 4
                               ~~I"EmploJllleJIt            Growtlt Rates .                      .'
                     SEV.       AGR.          TRA.       COMM.         MAN.       MIG.      CONST.
  1964                -1.49       -1.15          5.20          5.1.0     18.97      5.76           2.23
  1965               -0.07      -29.28         -1.30          -2.91     -12.93   -13.37         -34.18
  1966               1$.02         9.09         8.94         24.13       3.0..02   -8.55         68.42
  19'1.0               4.43      -5.38         58.93         21.13        9.35     -3.31         "1.49
  1971                 2.32        1.99         6.29         21.75       22 •.05    1.68         -5.89
  1972                 4.20      -4.61          .0.56.       19.06        4.88     -1.88          3.19
" 1973                 5.55      -J.91           1.99          1.36      15.25   -IQ.29          98.63
  1974               19.94       13.31         18.1.0        20.45        3.78      1.51       -3.0.44
  1975             +16.94        -1.29          .0.52        -5.93        9.82     -5.67       -20.41 .
  1976 .               2.67      -us,           6.46         29.29        .0.07     3.53       -24.22
  1977               10.28       -1.75          8.46         31.64        5.71      3.78         11.18
  1978               -1.80       19.26          6.49         -8.99        2.23      4.44         -6.15
 Source; Computed     from Economic     SUl"veys 1964 -    "1978
                                                                     -
         'Thbles4 and 5,show that wage employment expanded inthe ~                           trans-
 port, commerce" and trade sectors an~ to a lesSer extent in the manufacturing
"sector. The figures for agriculture. mining andconstruction s~ negative trends
 for the' ~riods 1958"- 1966, 1913-1979.


                                    Table 5
      Industrial   Employment  AnnuaLised Compound         Growtb Rates
       Period           SEV       AGR           TRA       COMM          MAN    MIG   CONST
  1958 -1960           -8.88      -4.02       -24.27        -31.28     -12)1-7 -7.76   -6.67
  1962 -1966            2.27     -11.30          3.24         5.45       6.32  -8.38    3.58
  1969 -1978          12.97     +2.55           10.88        11.42       7.94  -0.80   -1.70
                    Source: Computed    from Table 4
        Since independence, the expansion of wage employment in the service, com-
 merce, transport and manufacturing sectors has been positive. Empolyment in
 agriculture was negative between 1962 - 196~, and that in mining was declin-
 ing for the whole periods 1958 - 1966, 1969 -: 1978.
 Trend and hypothesis 2
        There is a significant relationship between the level of wage employment
  and particular political periods or decisions which does not favour the agricul-
  tural and technical curr.iculum.
        The above hypothesis argues further that the trend of employment oppor-
  tunities after the Arusha Declaration was associated with the nationalisation
  of economic activities the end result of which was the rapid growth of a central
  state bureaucracy. Later, this trend was supported byemploynltmt grpwth at
  regional levels in the form of decentralisation, which had the 'effect of expand-
. ing government administration and therefore lead to an increase of jobs in such
  services as education, health, water supply, administration and party functions:
         I have identified two periods, nam~ly the period after independence (1961)
  and the period after the Arusha Declaration (1967). Within the post 1967 peri-
  od we also have the decentralisation of government machinery and policy mak-
  ing in 1972.
         Using time series data, I have fitted simple regressions taking the level of
  employment in each industrial division as a dependent variable and two dum-
  my variables, independence (1961) and the Arusha Declaration (1967). More for-
  mally my simple model was, where a, b are constant coefficients and U. is
   unobservable random term.                                                              I
         X.:.:a+bZI.+U
            I                I      I
         x.     = level of employment,         i  =   1,2 ... 18 in division
         X:   i
                = (1 if i is Sifter independence         19.61;0 otherwise)
                                                      or
                                  (I ifi is after 1967, 0 otherwise)
   The results are given in tables 6 and. 7.


                                              Table 6
                            Independence Dummy Regression Results
  Division              Eqnatio.n                                  T-
                                                             Values      R2          F
~"1: Services           111216-    1500IZli                    12.46  0.128        2.4
                                                                -1.53
  2. Agriculture        211748 -   81414Zl1                    14.19  0.584       24.0
                                                               -4.98
  3. Transport          8536 + 27694Zli                          1.91 0.493       17.5
                                                                 4.91
  4. Commerce            17529 + 12129Zli                        1.53 0.245        5.2
                                                                 2.28
                         11206 - 5044Zli                       16.33  0.738       45.0
  5: Mining
                                                                -6.71
                         10226 + 35660Zli                        0.75 0.261        5.6
  6. Constr.
                                                                 2.38
                        df = 16             P =  0.05
 ..     From the values of t's in table 6 it was found that the dichotomy before
 md,ependence and after independence was statistically significant at 5 per cent
 lev~l for t~~ industrial divisions of agriculture, transport, commerce, manufac-
 tunng, mmmg and construction; This suggests that the two periods affected the
 level of employm~nt differently in ~he significant divisions. In particular, the
 7ffect of the post mdependence penod was to increase the level of employment
 In t~ansport, commerce, manufacturing and construction, although during the
 perIod employment creation in agriculture and mining decreased.
 The values of R2 for commerce and construction are very low. This may indi-
 cate that though the level of wage employment in these divisions varied with
 the dichotomy it did not vary with it continously (i.e. step function).
       The results of the Arusha -Declaration dummy indicate that the divisions
                                                                            n:
 with significant t~values are services, agriculture, transport, commerce, anufac-
 turing, mining and construction. The effects of post-Arusha Declaratl?n and
 pr~-Arusha Declaration can be inferred from the equations and: the SIgns of
 coefficients ofZli• The period 1958-1966 had the effect of maintaining almost
 the same level of employment in all divisions. For the period 1967-1978 the
 effect was to. raise the level of employment in the divisions, services, transport,
 ~ommerce, manufacturing and construction. The post-Arusha period also had.
 the effect of lowering' employment in agriculture and mining divisions.
                                               47


                                                                   T.
      Di~             Equatioa                               V8lues             r         F
J.Services             91042 + 13811Zli .                     17.32          0.193      3.8
                                                                1.96
2.  A$JiCutture        176252 -      58229~                   18.07         ,0.553     19.8
                                                               -4.45 .
 3. Thmsport           19l1S + 22501~                           5.75         0.590    25.4
                                                                5;04
 4. Commerce           17633 + 18007Zli                         5.27         0.470     16.1
                                                                4.01
 5. Manufacturing
                        •
                       23368 ... 52840Zli                       5.09         0.821     73.6
                                                                8.58
         ",
 6. Mining             9926 • 3286Zli                          16.15         0.557     20.1
                                                               -4.48
 7. Construe.          16373 + 42428ZIi                          2.86        0.635     30.6
                                                                               5.53
 1i'end and HyPOthesis 3
       The employment function is not positively connected with the marketed
 surplus' of wage-good,s ..
 .     ~s hypothesis is based on the fact. that the higher the marginal product
of~abour in agric~ture,the greater the force of the neo~assical argument that
'it is the growth of the agricultui-al surp,lus :that dete11llUJes the growth of non-
 farm employment. Th~ ar&ument is that the marginal productivity of labour
 in agriculture is' not rising and yet there is growth of non-far'm employment .
 .     In my analysjs I shall use oply the supply of wage-goods as the more im-
 portant constraint. There are two reasons for this. First, it is statistically difficult
 to accomodate two alternative restraints in a regression analysis. Secondly, the
 capital-labour ratio can be changed by variation in techniques'but not the wage
 goods requirement at subsistence level.•                       ' ...
      -I haye also adopted the method used by Agarwala in India.5 For his C{lse,
 the agricultural sector is used as a near approximation to' the wage-goQds sec-
 tor. For Thnzania, the output of the agricultural sector is also made up of com-
 mercial crops which ate not relevant to the supply of wage-goods. So.I take t~e
 food grains output,as equi~ent to wage-goods output. Thus, in orthodox anal-
ysis, the marketed surplus of food grains (rice and tnaize) has a detetmining
influence on employment •.
       Therefore, non-agricultural employment becomes It' function of the total
OUij:)ut of food grains:                           ..
       Lj   =   + BFa .••.....•.••..••••.••••••.•.•.••.•..             '.' •.•••.•••• (11)


    Apart from domestic production, I have also to consider the imwrt and export
    of food grains and also introduce a stockastic Variable to take into account the
    effect of omitt~ variables. Thus equation (11) becomes:
         Li  = Ii -+  2i Fa    + 3i   (M :. X)a  + 'Ui               '. ;';,        (12)
         In the analysis, I have used real' quantities of rice ,'and maize marketed in
    m~tric k!ns over tht: period 1962 - 1978. The results obtained by regression anal~
   YSIS, takmg employment level ,as a dependent variable and Fa ~ marketed sur-
   plus of.rice and maize and (M - X)a import-export equilibrium of rice and maize,
   were as follows:
          t = 385.637     + O.5599xio.Sx1      + O.36481XlO",3X2                    (13)
                                             8
         80  =   17.470    81 "" 0.64S4xlO-4 2     ,;:;= 0.15267 x 10~3
                                       ,R2  =  0.262
         to =   22.07
                                          F  =  3.8
   The degree of fit is not very good, The independent variables explain 26 per
   cent of the variation in employment levels and, in addition, the t-values are not
   significant at a reasonable level. These results would tend to indicate, therefol'Ct
   that employment in non-agricultural SectorS'itas no significant positive linear'
   relatiopship with the supply of wage goods. Thus, modern-sector waae-employ~
  ment expansion is not supported by rural development: These fmdings would
  therefore tend to contradict the government's education, income, price ~d in-
  vestment policies, which on paper appear to favour the rural sector.
  General eondllsioll8 and recommeadatioll8
  Sectoral distribution     of employmeat
,        Findings on Hypothesis 1 show that employment opPortunities ~ been
  concentrated in the service sector of the economy. The contribution of the
  manufacturing divisiqn has been low but sometimes rising •.
         The government policy of creating job "Opportunities for ~              people
  appears to be concentrated in the unproductive sectors of thelCCQnomy.The ef-
  fect ~f this is: first, to increase wage incomes ~thout a ,correSponding inaeaIe
  In production. In the longrun, this depresses surplus and bM:stment wbicb would
  otherwise have combined with more labour and therefore an ~                in job ae-
  ation. Secondly, the concentration of .jobs in the service sector'iJDpIies that ~
  skills in greatest demand in the labour market are Jaw. t~hiq... adJuJn1stJa-
  tion, sales, clerical 'and office ,work. In such a situation, the low credttlth,k of
  prim~ schottl'leavers means that they are left out. Thirdly, resean::h evidence
  has often indicated that, the creation of j~b opportunities in, the modem ~


  increases expectations of obtaining a job in town among schoolleavers. This
  therefore, tends to explain, to some extent, the increase in school-leaver rural-
  urban migration. T~is migrated labQllr u~ually ends up in the informal sector
  or urban unemployment, instead of combining with other opportunities in the
  rural areas.'                                                                     .
         As a result of public pollcy )t is possible for a person with primary or inter~
  mediate levels of schooling, either academic or vocational, formal or non-formal,
 to obtain arelatively secure and well remunerated job in the diversified !lgrlcul-
  tural and industrial occupation structure as well as in the growing service sector
  of the economy.6
         This has some major policy implications .. First, one requires a deliberate
  shift towards job creation in the. other non-agricultural divisions of manufac-
  turing, construction, minin,g and estate agriculture. There are several ways of
 d<?ingthis within the limits of ~he,Thnzanian economy. In the first place, invest-
   ment policies can place greater emphasis on labour intensive project~. Some in-
   dustriesappear to have special possibilities for providing more employment; for
   instance, metal processing and machinery wor~shops. The same can b.e said of
   industries which have some export potential, such as the processing of rural
 .products, which could also perform a useful role in the deCentralization of in-
   dustry arid thus absorb regional rurallaboo:r .
     .. the second possibility is deVeloping and helping the growth of small-scale
 and handicraft industries. The dual           nature    of manufacturing     1n. 'Tan~
 zania also involves a great deal of waste. For example, despite the rhetoric which
 small industries receive in ideological papers, there is'still a great and growing'
 difference between the opportunities for expansion and success enjoyed by the
 modern sector and the same opportunities and achievements by smaller plants.
 Large firms still have easier access to short term credit, to new chemical
 knowledge and technical assistance, and to long term caPital. However, c~pital-
 labour ratios and capital-output ratios tend to be lower in. small indust;ries. Thus, .
 large amounts of employment could be expected from relatively small invest-
 ments in the expansion of these sectors: It is also easier for small firms to estab-
 lish themselves and grow in small towns and villa~es.
        Thirdly, the employment absorption potential of the construction division
 has not been. utilised fully. This is a sector which usually uses a great deal of
labour, especially unskilled labour, and few imports and is, at the same time
important' in terms of creating social infrastructure. For exarople, the use of
burnt bricks instead of bituroen in road construction and cement in house
building, in towns and rural areas has been overlooked. However, this depends
on public attitudes and opinion. When the Capital Development Authority in
Dodoma started a programme of using burnt ~ricKs in road construction there
were a lot of complaints from the public, despite the fact that countries like the
Netherlands have used the same materials in their infrastructure and housing.
I1!cidentally, the skills demanded for construction do not require high school
dIplomas and degrees •.
 Employment Creation, PoHtical and Economic Policies.
       ,1 have sh?wn iD; Hypothesis 2 that there is a positive correlation between
 partl~ular P?hcy perIods and the level of wage employment. The major. periods
 were lde":tIfl~d as after .independence, after the Arusha Declaration and after
 decentralIzatIOn.


          these three periods affected employment creation opportunitias in all the
    ma~or .industrial division~ in different ways. In particular, the post~independence
   penod ~ad ~~e.effect of mcre!ising employment opportunities in all the niajor
   md.ustnal divIsIons. ThiS was m contrast to the post-Arusha Declaration period
   WhIChh~d the effect of increasing employment opportunities in services, com~
   merce, fmance and trade, but of bringing about a decrease in industrial agricul~
   ture and mining. The effect of the post~decentralization period was to make the
   rise in employment in the public services sector steeper between 1973 and 1974
   (17070). Increases due to decentralization were seen in central Government while
   the major decline was in local government when the district councils ceased to
   operate.
         The employment creation that has appeared as a consequence of political
   policies has been concentrated in the social services, distribution, marketing and
   administrative divisions. This is due to the nature of emphasis of both the Arusha
   Declaration and the decentralization programme, whereby both labour absorp~
   tion and labour productivity were improved ..
      , Now that the political base has been built through the Party, there is a need
   to reorientate Party and overall government policies towards strategies with clear
 .objectives. This fequires two, related movements in terms of policy. First, it en~
   tails a move from the ideological, theoretical and descriptive level to both mac~
   n)"and micro planning. Secondly, it entails the use of planning as an instrument
   of socio economic policy in the process of inc~ing          efficiency. This will have
  to be done with the ultimate purpose of stimulating savings, investment, produc~
  tion and thus employment opportunities. Employment creation should not only
  be a major policy, but also a conseqJience of well thought out economic strate~
  gies designed to increase employment. This is so because once a functional per~
  sonal incomes policy is articulated, employment patterns and opportunities can
  be determined.
  Employment and agriculture
         Else where in this analysis I have shown that the employment level in the
  non~agricuItural sector has no positive linear relationship with the supply of wage~
  goods (food). Food production is taken as a proxy to agriculture sector perfor~
  mance. This indicates that the government policy of non~agricultural employ~
  ment creation and its inducement for agricultural food production has not been
  altogether successful.                     .                                       7
         Thus, the neo~classical path of development as visualised by Lewis, in
  terms of transfer of surplus from rural areas to urban areas does not appear
  to explain what has been happening in Tanzania. As already argued, the rural~
  urban migration of unskilled labour (most of it primary school leav~rs) is not
   a consequence of increased productivity in agriculture or1labour savmg techno.
  logical development. On the other hand, this lnigratory labour is not absorbed
  into modern sector employment because of its limited capacity and the little
  labour that is absorbed. is concentrated in the unproductive sectors of the
  economy .
•        There is a crisis point here. First, the stagnation of agriculture poses seri~
  ous difficulties to the economy. Besides food shortages, which are already a major
  problem in Thnzania, the already generated surplus labour from schools is not
  realised in terms of application and investment in agriculture. Secondly, th~re
  appears to be a contradiction in strategies. How can the government emphasIZe
                                               51


a strategy which would q!1icken the glUwth of th~ urban seCt?r in.~rms of job
creation and yet, allow agnculture to perform sluggiShly'! A policy of mner direct-
ed strategies assumes growing internal demand. But~ if the rural sector which
produces food stagnates~ this means also '. stagnation of demand for mass
produced conSumer goods. In this case a1so~there will be an import-e1{port dis- .
e4ulibrium which             would cut growth and employment •.
      .If agriculture is to groW and offer employment opportunities~ there is a need
to have a sustained commitment to both policy and institutional reforms. There
is thus a need to provide for improvements in particulat: areas; namely: producer-
incentiVes 'a,ccompanied by adequate opportunities for farmers to save, invest
or consume their earnings; an increase in extens~on services; infrastructural im-
provements and .credit availability among the rural population.'
 Speclfk bIlpUcatiODS and eondusiolUl
       Since the introduction of education for self reliance policy (ESR)~'manY
primary schools have been bui1t~ traditional colonial curriculums transformed
 and indeed impressive gains made in advancing Iiteracy~~litical awareness and .
 eqwility of opportunities. However~ the demand by ESR that- primary school
 leavers shonkl.work in the rural areas seems-to be remote. The thinking among ..
 pupils is that wage employment in the "unproductive" sectors of tb,.e..economr.
 in towns is the solution to unemployment after. schooling. MOre(JVer~parents.
 correctly argue that~ if the whole purpose of ESR is to malce their children come
 back to the village after schooling~ then there is no point in going to" school
 for after seven years their schooled children cannot~ after all. cultivate
 properl~8                                                   '_
       Impressive political and social statistics aside. the attitudinal behaviour of
 parents and pupils is rational. This is so, since the employment- creation tren~
 and patterns in terms of a broad iDstitutional framework do not appear to favour
 the rural areas~as the present level'of agricU.1tural development does not SeeQl
 to attract schoolleavers. The problem then becomes economic and adl"iniRtra-
 tive and in this way its solution needs a strategy which is sociaUy, politi~y
 as. well as economically integrated in terms of objectives.
       In this regard the fOllowing recommendations are in order. First, the base
 of labour absorption should be rural not urban. As effort is already being made
 towards social-political development in -rural areas through the party and viI-
 lagisation, economic development is possible. However~ this is QnlYpossible if
 there is bottom-to-top development that takes into account the resources and
 social..cultulaf realities of particular areas.9 Examples of such efforts include
 co-operative   ve~tures   in economic activities which~ in a wider sense, can indwte
 poultry, fIshing, vegetable production and livestock keeping. In I~,            food-
 production agriculture appears to have. a high potential to absorb labour. This
 is ~ sbice it appears thatovertime, theex.temal terms of trade are moving a,pinst
 cash-crop production, while the internal terms of trade are moring in fa\Iour
 of food crop producti~n. On the other band, agriC!1lture in g~ral will have
 to be based-on labour-Ultensive farming methods combined Wit6. indigeneous .
 technology. A substantial part of this labour can be absorbed in small-scale in-
 dustries (rural-based), rural public works, rural trade in the form of co-operative
.shops, Il1il1s, etc. if they are developed. It must be stressed, however, that these
 a4vanees are only possible if ~ is also a.~Credit              and marketins system
.wJllch favours- the rural.sector ,and other iDeentives ~ alreadY PobJtod out •.


        Sec()ndly, at both the macro <lnd micro level,there is a need to merge the
manpower coming out of school with existing economic possibilities. This is
an administrative problem. Between the Ministry of Education the Ministry of
Labour and ManpQwer Development, the Ministry of Finance and Economic;
Planning and theParty ,the~ is still a vacuum in terms of planning which would
provide a sound economic environment to enable schoolleavers to earn a living
by taking advantage of the rural resource potential. In the last instance, the plan~
ning and administrative machinery of the Party and Government should now
ensure that the objectives of ESR in terms the productive employment of school
leaver~ are implemented at national and village levels.               '
         This Ianalysis, though inconclusive, does suggest that wage employment
trends in 1l:mzania d9 not appear to favour the rural sector or the directly produc-
tive sectors of the economy. In this way, therefore, it would 'be unconvincing
to argue that the reason why so many priml;lTyschoolleavers do not find em-
 ployment is because they have received the wrong sort of education, an4 not
 because the economic system is at fault.                      '
         This brings us to the whole issue of educational planning. First, the de-
 velopment of education must be viewed in tile larger context of economic and
 social development and ihat the planning of education should, therefore, be seen
 as an integral part of overall development planning. The products of the educa-
 tional sector, just as the products of other sectors, are destined for "consump-
 tion" and inust therefore correspond qualitatively and quantitatively to the
  requirements of the economy at large, especially in connection with the various
 skills needed for economic and social deVelopment.1o Secondly, the solution to
 the problem goes beyond the communal-curriculum                 level but rather requires
  social-political economic integration of strategies in production, both during
  and after schooling. Thirdly, human resources development planning should aim
  at achieving full utilisation of all categories of labour and not only the so called
  highlevel or skilled labour. In reality and in practice, this means taking the avail-
'able resources and skills as a datum and attempting to discover how best to use .
 .this manpower in ,ord.er to fulfil the needs of society.
                        F9QTNOrES AN]tREFERENCES"                     ,                     .
   1. Th~'Musorft~ Resolution was passed by the National Executive Committee of the
       ruhng party In 1974 at MuSOrfta. According to the resolution Tanlanian education
       had to be intear«ted with work and vice-versa. "                '
  2. ILO:. Towards Self-Relkmce: .Development and Emptoymem Issues in Tanzania
      (Addis-Ababa, 1978). Chapter 5.
  3. The ~usha ~~,tion            was ~sed     by TANU in January 1967; it explained the
      meamns of socialism and self reliance and their relevance to Tan7ania.
  4. United Republic of Tailzania, Statistical Abstracts, (Government Printer 1960-
       m~                                                                            '
  S. See   R,. AsarwaJa, An '!oonometric Model of India: 1948-196/      (LunJon, 1970)
  6, See D.Court and K. King, Eductltlonand      Production Needs in the Rural Community
      (I.I:E.P.,  1978) .
  7. See A. Lewis, "Economic Development         with Unlimited Supplies of Labour, (Man-
      chester-School, 1954)                 ,
  8. See res~ch      results ~ given by C. Mnyawonga in "The place of prirnary school
      leavers In the development of rural areas", M.A. thesis Universit} of Dar es Salaa:n
      1976)."
 9. See Tirftoth-Orile F~,         '''Education and I~             Developlaent in Africa",
     Prospectus-Unesco,      Vol. XII, No.2, (1982), ptf. 261.
  10. The views are also exprCssed by Richard' jolly in 'his book Planning for Africon.
        Development. (EAPH, Nairobi 1969)Chapter6.                                      '