Botswana has undergone rapid socio-economic development since independence, principally due to the sound management of mining sector revenues. All these advances are in the process of being reversed by HIV/AIDS, which will affect 19% of the population by end-2000. Sero-positivity amongst mineworkers exceeds 30%. A quantitative model is used to forecast the development of the pandemic over the next 30 years. Indications are that the workforce age profile will begin to alter radically within 5 years. In 5-15 years, recruitment systems will be placed under severe pressure and mines will experience a potentially critical loss of skills. A five-year window of opportunity is available during which to put into place management strategies that deal with the impact of HIV/AIDS, including: comprehensive testing, treatment of STDs, condom distribution and the immediate expansion of recruitment and training activities. Failure to do so may compromise the ability to exploit some of Africa's premier mineral deposits.
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